Knicks Morning News (2017.10.16)

  • [NYTimes] On Pro Basketball: Months of N.B.A. Sound and Fury, Signifying No Threat to the Warriors
    (Monday, October 16, 2017 6:59:22 AM)

    The league went through a transformative off-season, with star players switching teams and the league overhauling rules. But the most important thing didn’t change.

  • [NYPost] What would be a success for these Knicks?
    (Sunday, October 15, 2017 10:00:35 PM)

    Greg Anthony agrees it will be one of the most difficult seasons to judge whether this edition of the Knicks will be a success. No, Anthony does not see this Carmelo Anthony-less team with a chance at a playoff berth. But he believes that doesn’t mean management can’t stamp 2017-18 campaign as worthwhile. The former…

  • 45 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2017.10.16)”

    Is McDermott this team’s Steve Novak?

    Is McDermott this team’s Steve Novak?

    Could be…. but he is young enough to be just horrid on D rather than atrocious and as Robert Frost once said…” and that made all the difference.”

    Is McD really is bad on D as folks are making him out to be?

    Note: I am using the present tense. I don’t care about his past defensive capabilities. My question is all about what he’s doing now.

    Is McDermott this team’s Steve Novak?

    I suppose he could be, but he’s got some work to do. The basic difference between them is that Doug is a pretty efficient scorer but Steve was elite when he was a Knick. If you look more closely, Doug does a lot more different things on offense. Some good (he can actually finish at the rim), some not so good (taking mid range shots). All Novak did was shoot 3’s. Ideally you’d like Doug to have a more Morey-ball like shot distribution. Shoot lots of 3’s, but also use his cutting ability to get some layups and a few dunks that a player like Novak could never get

    man I have no hope for McBuckets. i don’t think he looked even an ounce better defensively in the preseason. maybe he’s a tick better on that end than Novak, but I’m not even sure of that. Novak was over his head, but at least he always, always in the right spot.

    it’s easy to group guys together as elite shooters, but it’s probably true that Novak was a much better elite shooter. a 35 or 40 bp delta is the same whether you’re comparing 33 and 37 pct shooters or 40 or 44 pct shooters. Novak’s numbers are better from 3, from 16-23, and from the stripe.

    McD can do a ton of things Novak couldn’t. Coming out I thought he might be Kiki vandeweghe at least. But I don’t think that anymore. I don’t think he’s ever getting to the line 6 or 7 times per 36. I don’t think that leaves you with anything except a very good shooter who can also create other shots that aren’t really worth anything bc they just won’t be efficient enough.

    his steal/block rates so far are the worst in NBA history and he’s 26.

    From Kevin Pelton’s updated projections

    12. Brooklyn Nets
    Projected wins: 31.0
    Playoffs: 9 percent

    Much like the Lakers, the Nets should be much improved this season (sorry, Cleveland fans) but have a long ways to go to actually become competitive. This being the East, however, a playoff run can’t completely be ruled out.

    13. New York Knicks
    Projected wins: 30.8
    Playoffs: 8 percent

    New York’s two teams could be trading places in the standings all year long. They’re separated by 0.2 wins on average in RPM projections, a win in CARM-Elo simulations and a relatively lopsided two wins (in New York’s favor) by BPI.

    I think there is slim hope for McD. He probably won’t ever be as efficient as prime Novak was, but I think 1. he’s worked on his body some this year (I for one think he looked not hopeless on D this preseason), 2. he can stop taking wasted shots in the midrange area, and 3. I think he will be called upon to make the extra pass more often in NYC.
    Remember, prime Novak just did one thing insanely well and had Chandler backing him up on D. McD might not shoot .500 from three, but I have to believe his man defense is better than Novak’s. Novak mostly went against pfs, but he’s about the same weight as McD, so maybe Dougie can slide over and cover pfs more than we think? It will really depend on matchups and how much McD can improve.
    It’s obvious that he has a connection with Horny, so maybe that will help?

    @wojespn
    Sources: Memphis plans to waive or trade guard Wade Baldwin — 17th overall pick in 2016 NBA Draft — before roster cutdown deadline today.

    I liked Wade Baldwin a lot coming out of Vanderbilt. I’d pick him up and assume the Grizzlies are being entirely too impatient.

    We should be all over Baldwin. Giving up on him after 405 minutes is truly bizarre, especially for a franchise that I view as having an above-average front office despite some mistakes.

    i was looking at his hightlghts, i dont see what you all are enamored with… doesnt seem like a playmaker or strong passer, decent finisher but not too athletic

    Baldwin can’t finish at the rim at all, which is a pretty big red flag, but he was a good catch and shoot player in college. With his wingspan I’d put him in the G-league and try to turn him into a 3 and D 2-guard.

    I’d take a flyer on Baldwin. He was drafted due to his defensive potential. Strong with a 6’10” wingspan. He was also a great shooter in college so that should be fine as well. As a three and d PG he has potential.

    Better than Jack.

    Jack’s (probably) only here until Noah comes back after 12 games.

    Should the Knicks claim Baldwin? He’s due $1.8m this year, and I’m reading that they’d have until the end of the month to decide whether to exercise his $2m option for next year.

    Or, wait and see if he goes unclaimed and then try to get him cheap for Westchester? The Knicks still have that 2nd two way to give out.

    Baldwin really disappointed. Apparently he’s shown no improvement over the summer.

    So the Pelicans have no healthy SFs.
    They have big ideas this year, so I’d be on the phone with them trying to deal Lance for a #2 or Kuz or McBuckets (can’t trade him until Nov. 24) for their 2019 #1.

    @15
    IIRC, they are tough to match salary with, though, even if they are willing to deal a #1 pick.

    Would anyone trade Lance for a 2018 #1 AND eat the contract of Asik (3 more seasons at $10MM per) if that 2018 pick is only very lightly protected (ie. top 3)? (this works via trade machine by the way)

    We’d lose about $4MM in cap space each year for the next 3 years (Asik minus Lance). New Orleans would be able to get very near to under the tax with such a move — prob able to dump other salary pretty easily to get under if this trade in itself doesn’t do it…

    I wonder if there’s any chance New Orleans would do this. I would do it in a second.

    So they don’t have a SF and your solution is… Lance Thomas?

    Let’s just stop pretending that anyone would want Lance. It’s not goink to happen.

    they also want to get off Asik’s contract, which is in the same order of magnitude of suckitude as Noah’s contract.

    Thomas is an ok defender, great locker room guy, and has shot 42.2% on his last 200 3 point attempts. He makes zero sense on our team, but on a team like the Pels, with a bunch of knuckleheads like DMC and Rondo? It’s not that bad.

    Meanwhile what is SA doing? 3 year $72MM extension for LMA? on top of the awful Gasol extension?

    To take Asik, or not to take Asik…

    How about Thomas and Beasley for Asik and that #1 pick? What a collection of centers the Knicks would have! 🙂

    Yeah, I want to dump Beasley.

    I thought they couldn’t trade their 2018 #1 because they dealt their 2017 #1 away in the Cousins deal.

    Beasley can’t be traded til Christmas Eve.

    Kay Felder to the Bulls, Liggins to the Bucks. Richard Jefferson still on the waiver wire.

    I’m sorry about the Felder news, Z-man.

    I thought they couldn’t trade their 2018 #1 because they dealt their 2017 #1 away in the Cousins deal.

    The Stepien rule only cares about future picks. (That is, having dealt a 2017 pick has no influence on the 2018 pick)

    The LMA era in SA makes no sense. I didn’t get it at the time and I still don’t.

    There are only very few really good players. If you can’t get one of them, you have to look elsewhere.

    There is an opportunity cost associated to signing someone instead of preserving cap space; but also to let an offseason without signing anyone and then be in the same position in the next offseason.

    LMA is not Duncan, but he is good enough to keep the team between the contenders (because you already have Kawhi). Besides, I dont think Poppovich wants to tank at this point in his career, so they might as well try before he, Manu and Parker retire.

    My Knicksy thought of the day:

    Frank Mason Jr, Seth Curry and Jordan Bell combined, make about 500k less than Ron Baker.

    Adrian Wojnarowski?Verified account
    @wojespn
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    Denver will likely waive guard Jameer Nelson to create a roster spot for Jefferson, league sources tell ESPN.

    Rade Zagorac, the 35th pick in the 2016 draft, was also waived by Memphis today. We should cut Jack and pick up one of Baldwin or Zagorac and send the other one to the G-League on a 2 way deal. Both weren’t very good but are worth the flier.

    Aldridge is a pretty good player, and the Spurs had to spend money somewhere with such a low probability of signing the brands.

    I know everyone here hates even the mention of mid range jumpers, but the Spurs seem to see some value to them in certain contexts.

    Aldridge is one of the best at making those, and he’s long.

    What else are they going to do? This Warriors run could last another half-decade, might as well do the best you can for Kawhi and hope Curry’s ankles go bad again.

    Thanks. Still a Knicks fan. You guys deserve a turnaround one day. I’ll be around once in awhile if that’s alright.

    Speaking of mid range jumpers, CP3 took zero this preseason which was his specialty.

    Also welcome back ruru.

    Finally, ruruland!, a staple poster when I started to read this blog some years ago.

    Oh WHY couldn’t Melo wind up in Portland? The THCJ vs. Ruru discourse would have been priceless!

    Ruruland, of course you are welcome back.

    And per your comment below, I think an open mid range two pointer is a better shot than a contested three, at least if you are not Steph Curry. So there is value in having someone good at them, because it forces certain things from the defense and makes the other team defend more space.

    I know everyone here hates even the mention of mid range jumpers, but the Spurs seem to see some value to them in certain contexts.

    @39 It’s from Talladega Nights, when Ricky is in the hospital and Dale is telling him stories from their youth. Same two actors, though, so points for that.

    Interesting tidbit as the regular season starts:

    Tim Hardaway Jr posted a TS% of .639 and an eFG% of .627 this pre season. Doug McDermott posted TS/eFG% splits of .669/.661. Chances are these rates are unsustainable but I think we’ll be seeing these two take a bunch of shots this year. Between Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony leaving, there’s a lot of room for these guys to flank KP, and I’m excited to see what these two guys can do. Defensively we’re going to be bad no matter what, so we might as well see how good the offense can be. Frank’s pass-first nature along with KP, TH2, Hernangomez, and McBuckets should be a lot of fun to watch if they see a lot of time together.

    What’s interesting is that there was very little variation league average-wise in shooting % from 3-10 feet (15% of all shots, .414) 10-16 feet (10% of all shots, .412) and 16-<3pt (14% of all shots, .403). I would have guessed that the drop-off in % would have been greater with distance. PS: The Knicks were among the best in the league at the long 2. Thanks, Phil!

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