Knicks Morning News (2016.09.15)

  • [SNY Knicks] Jeff Hornacek’s daughter opens up about the new Knicks coach
    (Wednesday, September 14, 2016 9:25:19 PM)

    Jeff Hornacek’s daughter, Abby, opened up about her dad while speaking with Marc Berman of the NY Post.

  • [SNY Knicks] Carmelo drops support for Crown Heights armory deal
    (Wednesday, September 14, 2016 6:35:05 PM)

    Knicks F Carmelo Anthony has dropped his support for the controversial Crown Heights armory deal.

  • [SNY Knicks] Forget the draft, winning is the best case scenario for Knicks, Porzingis
    (Wednesday, September 14, 2016 10:04:52 AM)

    Forget about relying on the NBA draft, winning is the best case scenario for the Knicks and Kristaps Porzingis

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks may add veteran to bulk up young bench
    (Wednesday, September 14, 2016 8:27:14 AM)

    With young players like Willy Hernangomez and Marshall Plumlee on guarantees and three players on partial guarantees, will the New York Knicks look to add a more-experienced player to round out their bench?

  • [NY Newsday] AP: Accuser in Derrick Rose rape case has a secret
    (Wednesday, September 14, 2016 4:55:00 PM)

    The woman who brought a lawsuit accusing NBA star Derrick Rose and two others of gang rape is leading two drastically different lives.

  • [NYDN] Phil Jackson ignored probe of Rose’ rape suit before Knicks trade
    (Wednesday, September 14, 2016 8:56:34 PM)

    Before Derrick Rose was deposed in a rape lawsuit, the Knicks accepted the trade without investigating the suit.

  • [NYDN] Derrick Rose rape accuser: ‘He has to deal with’ what he did
    (Wednesday, September 14, 2016 7:22:23 PM)

    The “Jane Doe” accusing Derrick Rose of rape said he is “in a bad place” and “has to deal with” what he did to her.

  • [NYTimes] AP Exclusive: Accuser in Rose Rape Lawsuit Tells Her Story
    (Wednesday, September 14, 2016 7:33:58 PM)

    The woman who brought a lawsuit accusing NBA star Derrick Rose and two others of gang rape is leading two drastically different lives.

  • [NYTimes] Heat Forward Chris Bosh: ‘I’m Ready to Play’ After Clots
    (Wednesday, September 14, 2016 10:31:11 PM)

    Chris Bosh has decided he’s ready to play for the Miami Heat again.

  • 61 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2016.09.15)”

    Boy I’m so excited to start the year 3-1 and then fumble to 4-14. And it’s only September!

    From the previous thread re: CP3 coming here:

    I wish this were true but I doubt it. Given the expected rise in the cap, that 5th contract year will be huge (40m+?) and I don’t think 32yo Paul would walk away from that unless there were some large endorsement deal which offset most of the loss.

    This is clearly a true idea, but it got me thinking about the over-36 rule that exists in the CBA, explained here by Larry Coon.

    I may have minor details wrong here but I’m pretty sure I have the general picture right.

    CP3 will be a >10 year player, which means that his max salary will start at $35MM and his year 5 salary if he stays with LA will be 47+(!) million. But because his 5th year will be after age 36, that dollar amount actually gets spread out evenly over the initial 4 years of the contract (~12MM each) which means that his max starting salary will be only $23MM — i guess the cap hit of the total contract is spread out over 4 years but he still gets paid in year 5 — so essentially there is not much benefit in terms of total $ for him to sign a 5 year contract.

    Signing a 5 year max with LA would equal a total of only $140MM
    a 4 year max with LA would equal $156MM
    a year max with any other team would equal about $149MM

    So the difference between a staying in LA and going to any other team is just the difference between the Bird raise (7.5% per year) vs. regular faise (4.5%/year)

    Brian, Ephus, etc — am I semi-right on this?

    Chris Paul (or just maxing out another superstar entering the twighlight of his career) is not what the Knicks need.

    What the team desperately needs is a long-term plan based on young players and cap flexibility, hopefully centered around Porzingis (IF, big if, he becomes a great player).

    This win-now mode is delusional at best.

    I don’t think a win-now team of CP3, Lee, Melo, Staps, and Noah is delusional. That’s an eastern conference finals team, even with all of them but Staps being old. An though that team would have a short window, Staps will be in his prime when they can tear it down and rebuild, which will be easier to do with all that cap space free and a bunch of #1 picks, one of which could turn out to be useful in the next few years.

    Winning now does not mean we can’t win in a few years as well.

    As for JK47 on the previous, the point of NOT trading Calderon and Lopez for “useful assets” is that the trade for Rose leaves the Knicks with tons of cap space next year. Trade for “useful assets” and that’s all you’d have next year, not enough room to bring on a transformative player.

    What the team desperately needs is a long-term plan based on young players and cap flexibility, hopefully centered around Porzingis

    I agree with you, but this will happen approximately never. This is the opposite of the philosophy the Knicks have pursued for 15 years, and it’s the reason the team has been mostly terrible for so long. The Knicks go all-in with shitty pocket cards over and over and over again, and will never stop. It is what it is.

    If my research is correct we own all of our first round picks going forward, which hasn’t been the case in a long long time. Next year we’ll have 2 second round picks. 2018 we have 1 second round pick. 2019 we have 2 second round picks. 2020 we don’t have a second round pick and 2021 we have 1 second round pick.

    So next year we’ll have 3 rookies. The year after 2 more. The year after we’ll have 3 more.

    “All in” involves mortgaging your future to win now by sacrificing any and all assets, which we haven’t done. I can understand why people think this team is doomed to fail, which is fine with me as long as we keep our picks. As long as we do that we get the same built in hedge for disaster that we threw away under Isiah by dumping picks for Curry and Marbury.

    Let’s assume we’re as bad as we were after the Curry and Randolph trade, but with our picks in hand. Will anybody give a shit that we made a bad trade for Rose and gave Noah a lot of money if we have the #2 and #7 picks in back-to-back draft? I highly doubt it as long as we draft fine.

    If people think this team is going to be as bad as they predict they should be happy if we keep our pick since I’ve seen prognostications here that we’ll be worse this year than we would have if we kept Lopez, Grant and Calderon.

    Exactly lavor and swift……people want to complain about everything.

    If you think we will suck you should be happy. Next years draft is loaded

    I don’t think a win-now team of CP3, Lee, Melo, Staps, and Noah is delusional.

    There’s pretty much one scenario where this year’s plan works out, and that’s if Paul is willing to take a big paycut and play here next year. I don’t think either he or Westbrook (who clearly was Plan A for next year, as they very specifically carved out enough cap room for Westbrook’s max next year, but not nearly enough for Paul’s max next year) coming here was likely enough at the time to make this plan make sense, but I’ll certainly allow that:

    A. It’s not impossible and
    B. If it happens, then all of these moves led to it happening (as while Paul is almost certainly not taking a paycut to come play her next year, the odds of him doing so are better with Noah in the middle than Lopez, and Noah came here because of Rose coming here and Lee came because of Noah, but Lee obviously is less of an incentive to Paul than Noah is)

    If the more likely scenario of Paul not coming here happens, then we get the worst case scenario of the team being just good enough to keep them from getting anything worthwhile out of the draft. That is the downside of this set-up, not that everything might collapse, as in that case, yes, the Knicks would at least get a top draft pick, which would be awesome. The worst case scenario is this team winning 38-42 games, losing out on Paul and being forced to either re-sign either Rose or Jennings or get someone else who also won’t move the needle much while Melo and Noah just get a year older and likely decrease in ability.

    And that worst case scenario is pretty likely, which sucks.

    However, that worst case scenario does involve the Knicks being in playoff contention, which is nice in and of itself. If they’re going to mess with the future of the team, at least I get to see some playoff contending basketball.

    A good argument can be easily made that the knicks would be better off with Grant, Lopez, Calderon, Galloway and Rondo (on the nice deal Chicago got) vs Noah, Rose and Holiday.

    Less risky, cheaper, probably better and more balanced. We desperately need a bench.

    That’s one of many alternatives to the stupid move centered around Rose and the delusional ‘win-now’ mode.

    not nearly enough for Paul’s max next year

    If we move O’Quinn, we’re pretty much there.

    The worst case scenario is this team winning 38-42 games, losing out on Paul and being forced to either re-sign either Rose or Jennings or get someone else who also won’t move the needle much while Melo and Noah just get a year older and likely decrease in ability.

    I agree this is the worst case scenario. Which isn’t good, but not the guaranteed disaster everyone is predicting, either.

    Brian, your assumption though is that you can only build through lottery picks like the 76ers. We all ready have our lottery pick/future all star with Zinger.

    As long we have first round picks and second round picks we have the chance to put young players with potential around Zinger going forward. And sometimes those non lottery first round picks turn out to be really really good players. This upcoming draft is supposed to be very deep, so even if its a first round pick that’s later in the draft we can in theory scout and draft someone good. Also with 2 second round picks we could have the option to trade up. Maybe trade the 2 second rounders for another late first rounder or trade the first and one of the seconds for a higher first round pick. Not every lottery pick turns into a star and sometimes non lottery first round picks and second round picks turn into stars or very good starters or decent rotation players.

    @swift

    Considering Lee himself stated that Noah’s recruitment is the primary reason he came here my guess is no, he wouldn’t have come here.

    I agree this is the worst case scenario. Which isn’t good, but not the guaranteed disaster everyone is predicting, either.

    A bit of damning with faint praise there. 😉

    A good argument can be easily made that the knicks would be better off with Grant, Lopez, Calderon, Galloway and Rondo

    4 of these 5 kinda suck…..so im not sure about that.

    Theo – you left out Lee. I’m assuming you like that signing. Would he sign here if we kept Grant and Lopez? I don’t know

    Courtney Lee is not in a position to make demands. It’s not like teams were rushing to sign him. Same thing with Noah and Rose.

    We are overpaying for all those guys – thay are *very* lucky to deal with New York’s sucker front office.

    Reminds me of the time Camby went public expressing his surprise at getting a generous muti-year deal from the Knicks.

    What has a better chance of happening, us getting CP3 or Theo getting banned again before the seasons over?

    He got pretty close with the “Ghetto” comments so I think he’ll pull through.

    Same thing with Noah and Rose.

    Rose yes, of course, but Noah had plenty of offers out there. He could have chosen from a number of teams. He legitimately wanted to come here to play with Rose. And get paid a shit ton of money, of course, over four years, but I do think he chose the Knicks because of Rose. And Lee had similar offers to the one he got from the Knicks, so I think it is worth believing him when he says he came here to play with Noah. A lot of players clearly do admire Noah.

    Considering Lee himself stated that Noah’s recruitment is the primary reason he came here my guess is no, he wouldn’t have come here.

    Players say shit like that all the time, so who knows how true it is. But if it is true, so what? Getting Noah allowed us to overpay an average player who is on the wrong side of 30? Lee isn’t really a bad deal, but it’s not a good deal either.

    It’s not an overpay if you look at the market. That’s like $8m/yr on last year’s cap. You don’t think he’s as good as Terrence Ross?

    All NBA players are overpaid. And the idea that Lee wouldn’t have gotten a similar offer somewhere else is ridiculous. He’s a starting caliber SG who shoots well and plays good defense. His contract isn’t a “steal” but I would say its a good one.

    In a year from now if he’s traded everyone will complain about how we gave up such a good contract with Lee.

    We over payed Lee in years, not dollars.

    Lee is fine, but there’s no point in signing him to a 4 year deal. If that’s what it takes you say no thanks and move on.

    And yeah, I’d much rather have Terrence Ross, because he’s 25.

    Why is there no point in signing him to a 4 year deal? I don’t think it’s crazy to think a 3 and D player like Lee can age just fine. It’s not like we’re talking about some uber athletic, high usage scorer.

    Lee’s fine, but he does fit in a whole lot better on a team that is actually a “win now” team, which is the problem with the overall plan. Signing a bunch of older players to longterm contracts is fine if signing a bunch of older players to longterm contracts at least gives you a really good team. Signing a bunch of older players to longterm contracts to be mediocre this season in the hopes that one of two specific players signs with you so you can become a good team the next year (in year four of your one player’s contract and year two of your other two guys) is not good planning. But yes, Lee’s signing was a good sight better than the Rose trade or the Noah signing.

    Ok, but BC do you think that’s a tradable contract if we totally suck and want to move on from him? Because if it is I don’t get the hand wringing over that deal. With Noah and Rose I understand the concerns, but not at all with Lee. Even if you got nothing in return I think you could easily move him in a league desperate for capable wing defenders that can knock down the 3 consistently.

    I don’t buy “but at least they can get out of it if everything falls apart” as much of a point of pride in a signing. I mean, sure, it’s better than not being able to get out of it, but I would think that “you can trade the player if need be” should be a bare minimum out of a player that you’re signing, not a plus to point to.

    Every defense of the Rose trade, and Jackson’s approach in general, is centered around Chris Paul coming here next year. Now I’m not sure that’s a great end goal to begin with, but whatever. So what happens in the extremely likely event that Chris Paul does NOT take a discount to come here? And what happens if that decision is preceded by us winning, like, 39 games and getting the 10th pick?

    You might say I’m assuming the worst case scenario…but do any of those things seem particularly unlikely? I’d actually wager that it’s the most likely scenario of all. In that case we have two more years of Melo, three more of Noah, and three more of Lee. We’ll have some cap space, but who the fuck would take it at that point? We’ll have Porzingis and a low lottery pick, but that’s a barren youth pipeline compared to teams who actually committed to a rebuild.

    So I ask, if something similar to this comes to pass, would the resident Jackson defenders even regard it as a bad scenario?

    C’mon BC that’s not what I’m pointing to or even the discussion I brought up. I’m saying that people are acting like Courtney Lee’s deal is a bad overpay which would mean that we’d have to give up an asset to get out of it. I see that type of potential with the Noah contract, which is why I said I can understand why people don’t like that signing. I think Lee is a good player that virtually any team in the NBA can use productively and I think his dollar value is fair value, though not an outright steal.

    If I was pointing to pluses for Lee it’d be that he’s a good 3 point shooter, can defend competently at the guard positions and maybe the non-plus size 3s and that he’s been trusted by coaches virtually everywhere he’s gone, which tells me he can execute to scheme and doesn’t do a lot of stupid shit. I know that the Knicks quite often do stupid shit, but signing Lee to this deal strikes me as a fairly competent piece of business.

    Every defense of the Rose trade, and Jackson’s approach in general, is centered around Chris Paul coming here next year.

    Nah , I like Rose on this team

    Signing a bunch of older players to longterm contracts to be mediocre this season in the hopes that one of two specific players signs with you so you can become a good team the next year (in year four of your one player’s contract and year two of your other two guys) is not good planning.

    I’m afraid there is no real plan beyond ‘win now’. Sadly, constructing a pretty mediocre team (the real celing for this roster) guarantees that we will have mediocre draft picks, too, perpetuating the cycle of failure that has marked the last two decades. It’s quite painful to be a Knicks fan.

    So I ask, if something similar to this comes to pass, would the resident Jackson defenders even regard it as a bad scenario?

    We were spending the cap on players whether we made the Rose trade or not. Whether it was on Noah/Lee or a different starting PG/SG combination than the one we have the money was getting spent and likely on long-term deals this summer. What my only argument is that if we keep our picks and things turn out as terribly as 90% of this board thinks it will and that we’d have been better off in terms of wins not for now and the future making the Rose trade or Noah signing then how are we mortgaging the future?

    And no that’s not a defense of Jackson signing these players and the team continuing to struggle. If the team doesn’t make the playoffs this year because his moves this summer failed he should be let go and if he trades any first round picks in a short-sighted push to do so he should be fired.

    There are some extenuating circumstances where it’s not that cut and dry like in some world where the East is awesome and the Knicks win 45 games but miss the playoffs. That entire scenario is unlikely, but I think it illustrated what I’m saying.

    What my only argument is that if we keep our picks and things turn out as terribly as 90% of this board thinks it will and that we’d have been better off in terms of wins not for now and the future making the Rose trade or Noah signing then how are we mortgaging the future?

    But when cynics refer to things turning out terribly, they (well, we) aren’t really talking about an extremely low win total this season. I think Melo, Porzingis, Noah, Lee, etc. will keep us above 30 wins…but that’s it. Having a very good chance to finish at 35-40 wins is simply an unacceptable justification for loading up on long-term deals to guys on the wrong side of 30. It makes total sense to sign guys at market value or above if they’ll make you a legitimately good team (48+ wins, or so). It makes no sense at all to do so if reasonable projections (like Kevin Pelton’s) put your team in the mid 30’s.

    If it really all goes to shit (Noah injured, Rose just as terrible as he probably will be, Melo decline, etc.), that would represent a better outcome than the one I’m predicting. I mean, it still would be far from ideal because we’d be like the Sixers without the cap flexibility and minutes available for rookies, and could’ve been achieved much quicker with other approaches, but it’d be okay.

    I just don’t see it. I see a team semi-competent enough to convince Phil to make a run a Chris Paul, get rebuffed, and toil away in a fashion we’re all too accustomed to.

    I mean I also think there are other good outcomes next summer besides “sign Chris Paul”, but I’m also of the opinion that it’s okay to form just a solid playoff team in New York if you keep your picks and are relatively flexible with your cap, which we have been the last 2 summers. So to me the biggest goal for the season is establishing ourselfes as a solid playoff. If that isn’t accomplished, which I admit has a very good possibility of being the case, I think Phil needs to go.

    My primary concerns for the future of the franchise and why I’m okay with things right now are that KP develops well and we keep our picks unless there’s some ludicrous deal for Anthony Davis or Towns on the table, which they won’t be.

    Unlike most of you, I’m pretty content with Phil’s approach. He’s been able to walk the tight-rope between putting a decent team on the floor (I hope this will be a playoff team – regardless of what the doomspeakers here say) and building for the future. We have future draft picks. We have a young stud and a number of kids that have potential.

    CP3 would be terrific, 3 years ago. If we sign him, I hope it’s a short deal but the fact is that’s a pipe-dream.

    My primary concerns for the future of the franchise and why I’m okay with things right now are that KP develops well and we keep our picks unless there’s some ludicrous deal for Anthony Davis or Towns on the table, which they won’t be.

    Porzingis is so awesome that sure, for the foreseeable future, as long as he’s here, we’ll definitely have a good reason to look forward to the future. Which is certainly nice to have. 🙂 I’d prefer to be planning for that future now, instead of the sort of, “Eh, I’ll let my successor figure it out when these contracts expire” plan of the present, but it is a damn sure better thing to have than not having a player like Porzingis. Best thing that has happened to this team since drafting Ewing. Thank goodness that the 2015 Draft was so great!!

    http://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2017/

    Here is a list of 2017 free agents (Paul isn’t listed since he has an option). The number of players who would A) make any degree of sense for NYK and B) have even a minuscule chance of coming here is, by my count, zero. It appears to be totally CP3 or bust to me.

    I’d also like to remind everyone that us being even an 8th seed sacrificial lamb would involve outplaying most statistical projections by 7-10 games. I simply don’t see how anyone can even try to mount a defense for limiting flexibility in a major way to get to that.

    Just about every team I can think of that has taken the “severely limit long term flexibility for a team that is absolute best case scenario a 2nd round out” approach has paid the price. I see no semblance of a coherent plan here. I’m happy we have Porzingis, but that’s it.

    Oh sure, man, I’m totally with you. I think the plan stinks for that very reason. But, well,

    A. There is a chance that Paul says yes. It’s highly unlikely, but it is not inconceivable.
    B. There is a chance that they outplay their projections. 7-10 games isn’t outside the realm of possibility
    C. There is always Porzingis. 🙂

    C. There is always Porzingis. 🙂

    This is true, and is pretty much the only shred of allegiance I feel towards the team at this point.

    This is true, and is pretty much the only shred of allegiance I feel towards the team at this point.

    That’s how a lot of people feel. I still like the team. It will be an interesting and possibly good time. I am sure glad for the change from the beginning of the 2014-15 season til now. That roster fucking sucked!!!

    At least we should have some entertaining basketball

    Was an average player?

    He’s in his prime now and many people would argue that if you don’t have a lot of injuries your prime is your early 30s, not your mid 20s. We’re getting him in his prime for at least the first three years if he stays healthy. He also isn’t an average player. He’s above average.

    Courtney Lee is so average he drives his Corolla on the median. I once saw him eating humble pie a la mode. Half the kids in his middle school class thought he was mean, the other half just though he was a standard deviant. There probably hasn’t been a player closer to the Platonic ideal of dead center average than Courtney Lee since Vern Fleming retired.

    @44 Lee’s WP/48 by age:

    23: .099
    24: .083
    25: .086
    26: .088
    27: .119
    28: .127
    29: .113
    30: .115

    You can only build through taking advantage of the major market dynamic of the NBA, which is that people would rather have talent now than talent later. Whether you utilize the young players and picks you bring in for a trade or you develop them doesn’t matter. I don’t see how you can argue against this when the only exception in the context of the last two CBAs is the big three in Miami (which still never would have happened had Miami not drafted Wade) and Lebron on the Cavs (which relied upon two #1 overall picks to bring in the talent to woo Lebron back).

    Let’s look at teams that have won at least 55 games at some point over the last five seasons:

    five times: SAS
    four times: OKC
    three times: LAC
    two times: GSW, MEM, MIA, CLE
    one time: TOR, ATL, HOU, IND, DEN, CHI

    he only teams that weren’t built basically entirely off of either players they drafted or players they traded picks for are Miami and Houston, and Houston only had the cap space and talent level to woo Dwight as a result of… you guessed it… focusing on accruing picks and youth. Without discount talent from players like Parsons, Harden and Beverly, Howard never becomes a Rocket.

    Can we just let stop with this conversation? You improve in a sustainable way by trading and applying cap space towards young players or tanking or at minimum being pretty bad and focusing on developing those players you draft.

    There may have been an alternative path at some point a decade or so ago when the tax was lighter and it was easier to add salary when you were above the cap, but those days are long gone.

    Now, if you aspire to being above average for a year or two followed by a return to a roster devoid of value or you believe a lebron miracle is just bound to come our way, that’s fine. Carry on.

    From Derrick Rose’s deposition:

    Question: Do you have an understanding as to the word consent?

    Derrick Rose: No. But can you tell me?

    Question: I just wanted to know if you had an understanding,

    Derrick Rose: No.

    Seems like there might not be a settlement, and I really think a good team of lawyers can get to 51% with the facts as they are. So if Rose is held liable for rape, do we suspend him? Cut him? Why the fuck did we trade for him again? Why do I root for this piece of shit team?

    I used to think there would be a settlement of the case, but now I’m not so sure. I think it’s in Rose’s interest to settle, but it’s probably not in his friend’s interests. Assuming they are not rich, a financial settlement could be a big issue for them. Rose could settle his part of the suit, but he would be abandoning his friends and the trial might still happen and still embarass him. So Rose might have to settle for all three which he may not want to do. In any case, there’s not likely to be a settlement until a date of importance approaches, for example the start of training camp or the start of the trial. If I were Phil, I’d push Rose to settle, but I doubt that’s actually happening.

    Seems like there might not be a settlement, and I really think a good team of lawyers can get to 51% with the facts as they are. So if Rose is held liable for rape, do we suspend him? Cut him? Why the fuck did we trade for him again? Why do I root for this piece of shit team?

    Honestly, I made the decision a couple weeks ago that I’m not a Knicks fan this year because of Rose. I just can’t in good conscience root for the Knicks and, by extension, him. As long as Rose is on the team I’m an NBA nomad.

    That would be a very, very silly thing to argue. I suspect those people are wrong about lots of other things.

    Here’s the breakdown by average player per year.

    The average player injures himself a few times by the time he is 27. Not saying swiftandabundant is right, but you just ignored his argument a linked a bunch of numbers of a stat that does not make sense to start with.

    I was able to root for the Knicks after they traded for Sprewell, even though I found him loathsome.

    It’s true, I rooted for Sprewell too. But at least Sprewell seemed to know he messed up. Rose seems clueless

    I still rooted for the Knicks after they kept Kurt Thomas and even when they brought him back. Also rooted for them when they signed Jason Kidd. I wonder if some of the older people here were able to root for them when Bernard King was lighting up the Garden.

    People aren’t going to root for him because they think he’s going to be a shitty player anyways. If we had acquired a superstar (in name and production) going through this trial then the tone on this board would have been a lot different. Like Massive said a week ago, Imagine how different the board’s reaction to the the trial would’ve been if we acquired Kawhi leonard?

    Comments are closed.