Knicks Morning News (2017.12.26)

  • [NY Newsday] Enes Kanter downplays big game in losing outcome
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 10:39:31 PM)

    Fair warning: If you texted Enes Kanter on Monday to tell him what a great job he did, there is a very high likelihood that he didn’t and won’t get back to you. Don’t be offended. He’s a bottom-line kind of guy.

  • [NY Newsday] Knicks fall to 76ers despite Enes Kanter’s 31
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 10:36:54 PM)

    On paper, the Knicks had almost everything going for them — a raucous Christmas Day crowd in the friendly confines of Madison Square Garden, a 76ers team that practically limped into New York after losing nine of its previous 10, and Enes Kanter, who — despite entering the game being overshadowed by a certain other big man — was about to have one of the best games of his career.

  • [NYDN] Joel Embiid outshines Enes Kanter as 76ers spoil Knicks’ Xmas
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 4:46:06 PM)

    Joel Embiid waited a long time for a chance to make a first impression at Madison Square Garden.

  • [NYDN] Knicks must improve away from MSG as they hit road entering 2018
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 12:46:21 PM)

    Now we’re about to see if the Knicks are for real or not.

  • [NYPost] Knicks just watched their worst fear get exposed
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 12:51:50 PM)

    Entering this season, the fear for the Knicks was their point-guard play. The fear was realized on Christmas. Starting point guard Jarrett Jack went scoreless, going 0-for-5, and committed an ill-advised flagrant foul on Joel Embiid in the third quarter with the score tied at 52. Rookie Frank Ntilikina looked lost on defense for one…

  • [NYPost] Knicks fans now have a new enemy
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 12:39:03 PM)

    Joel Embiid said his family wasn’t around for Christmas. So maybe that’s why he decided to play Grinch and steal the Knicks holiday spirit. This was supposed to be a nationally televised celebration of all the progress the Knicks have made this season, especially at the Garden, where they have been rather dominant — at…

  • [NYPost] Porzingis tries to find the bright side of all these bricks
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 12:22:17 PM)

    It was another subpar shooting performance for Kristaps Porzingis, who wasn’t as big of a factor as he needed to be in the Knicks’ 105-98 loss to the Sixers on Christmas Day at the Garden. Porzingis was 6-of-19 from the field and was just 9-of-14 from the free-throw line to finish with 22 points. In…

  • [NYPost] Enes Kanter doesn’t care how monstrous a game he played
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 12:12:19 PM)

    Knicks starting center Enes Kanter got a slew of Christmas texts congratulating him for his 30-20 game. But Kanter has his 20/20 vision trained on the big picture and he will not return many of those good-natured messages because the Knicks suffered a damaging 105-98 defeat to the Sixers in Monday’s Garden holiday matinee. Kanter…

  • [NYPost] The other unicorn steals Knicks’ Christmas in bad omen
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 9:46:48 AM)

    This was no Merry Kristaps for the Knicks. In fact, Monday’s holiday could foreshadow something grim — as it did a year ago. Knicks center Enes Kanter was sensational with a 31-point, 22-rebound explosion, but Kristaps Porzingis didn’t have one of his stronger games. That allowed the 76ers’ Joel Embiid and his flock of hot-shooting…

  • [NYTimes] On Pro Basketball: Warriors Amble Back Into the Spotlight and Take Down the Cavaliers
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 4:53:12 AM)

    The Christmas Day showdown was sort of scruffy, with both Stephen Curry and Isaiah Thomas missing. But the result was an apt reminder that the Warriors remain No. 1.

  • [NYTimes] On Pro Basketball: The Vibe Is Better for the Knicks, but There Are Perils Ahead
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 12:33:01 AM)

    After Monday’s loss, New York was 17-16 and facing a long, tough stretch on the road. And the Knicks have been weak away from home this season.

  • [NYTimes] Warriors 99, Cavaliers 92: Led by an Overpowering Kevin Durant, the Warriors Defeat the Cavaliers
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 2:32:54 AM)

    Durant delivered a towering performance on both ends of the floor, defending LeBron James and scoring 25 points.

  • [SNY Knicks] By the numbers: Joel Embiid vs. Kristaps Porzingis
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 4:20:17 PM)

    In the Knicks’ 105-98 Christmas Day loss to the Sixers, all eyes were on Kristaps Porzingis and Joel Embiid. So who won the matchup?

  • [SNY Knicks] Kanter doesn’t care about big stats on Christmas: He wants wins, playoffs
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 4:31:14 PM)

    Enes Kanter made history on Christmas Day, but doesn’t care because his team lost.

  • [SNY Knicks] Kanter steals the show as Knicks fall to Sixers on Christmas Day
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 2:35:42 PM)

    The Knicks fell to the Sixers on Christmas Day despite 31 points and 22 rebounds from Enes Kanter.

  • [SNY Knicks] Kris Kringle: Porzingis gifts media Zing Bars on Christmas Day
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 12:42:39 PM)

    Kristaps Porzingis gifted the media Zing Bars on Christmas Day against the Sixers.

  • [SNY Knicks] Hornacek disagrees with Van Gundy’s thoughts on Knicks’ schedule
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 10:05:00 AM)

    After Pistons head coach Stan Van Gundy said the NBA gave the Knicks a favorable home schedule through the first couple months of the season, New York head coach Jeff Hornacek said he didn’t see it in Van Gundy’s eyes.

  • [SNY Knicks] O’Quinn, Noah active as Knicks take on 76ers
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 11:55:00 AM)

    Knicks forwards Kyle O’Quinn and Joakim Noah are both active for Monday’s game against the 76ers, while Philadelphia forward Joel Embiid and guard J.J. Redick are also active.

  • [SNY Knicks] Returns of Porzingis, Embiid highlights Knicks-76ers matchup
    (Monday, December 25, 2017 9:10:00 AM)

    Kristaps Porzingis and the Knicks face Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers on Christmas at noon.

  • 58 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2017.12.26)”

    I finished watching the game this morning, and have three takeaways that are consistent with what they’ve shown in other games. The Knicks have trouble with the teams that have good big men, they aren’t good at handling on ball pressure, and they make a lot of mistakes at the end of close games. Since our front line is the team’s strength, it’s natural that a team that can matchup with it will give us problems, so I dont think that will change. The other stuff might get better with experience, although probably the only way our point guard play improves a lot is if Ntilikina improves over the course of the season. This next stretch is going to be rough.

    So for the remainder of December and the month of January we have 4 home games and 15 road games. There are some winnable road games in there (Dallas, Memphis, Phoenix, Brooklyn) but as bad as we play on the road, there are definitely no gimmes.

    I’m predicting 6-13, which may be too optimistic. There could easily be a 7 or 8 game losing streak in January, and one more injury would send us into complete tank mode.

    KP:

    Teams are trying to force me to take shots I don’t want,” he said afterward. “As the game slows down for me, I will be able to see the right pass or the right shot. I’m still learning and developing, learning from my mistakes

    At least he knows he’s taking bad shots. That’s encouraging.

    As I said yesterday, I believe changes in a player when I see it, because past predicts future in most cases.

    But KP– I don’t know, he has some sort of knack into saying exactly what we need him to say- like when he was drafted, he said, and I’m paraphrasing, ‘people think I’m soft, I’m not.’ And then he proved it with surprisingly great D. His penchant for long twos and not passing is a huge problem as his usage goes up, but damnit if I’m not encouraged that he knows it. He’s a good guy.

    I want them to retain the KP/Kanter-O’quinn core, with Frank, Hardaway, and the young fringe players we have. Please, get Jarrett Jack out of here, and Lance/Lee/Beasley (you can actually get something for Beasley I hope), and why is Ramon Sessions still on the roster.

    We need to be decisive with Enes Kanter. If we want him, get him to opt in and offer an extension before the trade deadline. It’s expected to be a tight year for free agency, so we should see if he wants long term security at a reasonable rate. If he wants more than we’re willing to offer, and we’re out of the playoff race by February (and all information available indicates that we will be), we should cash in on his value.

    I’m not a big fan of THJ, but when he gets going (sometimes) everything is much easier for this team. They get up and down the floor faster creating easy opportunities and he opens the floor with his range. When he gets hot, they start scoring in bunches, fast.
    Easily, they could have two more wins if he was in the lineup which would put the knicks in 4th place. Depending on who they got, a high level PG would make them a top tier team in the East.

    I don’t understand why both Willy and Noah see no action. Noah played three minutes the other night. Three really good minutes. He’s incredibly active, spaces the floor well, and is a good passer. It gives them a completely different look to defend against. Give him minutes.
    And Willy too. I just don’t get it.
    The knicks could be creating valuable trading assets. Instead, they’re depreciating their assets.

    i think we really miss hardaway.. we are just not a threat from deep without him, having three point shooting makes up for a lot of mistakes.

    And Willy too. I just don’t get it.
    The knicks could be creating valuable trading assets. Instead, they’re depreciating their assets.

    The issue is they value making the playoffs more than optimizing assets. I know it’s frustrating, since literally every other team in the NBA seems to know there is no value in aiming for the middle of the road, but that’s the way we are. It’s like watching our offense. We run plays designed to give KP the ball in the last spot you want him to have it instead of the best.

    We’re pot committed to making the playoffs at this point, so I might as well stop rooting for or expecting them to do the smart thing.

    This upcoming 20 game stretch is going to be tough, but I think if we manage to go 8-12 or better, we will make the playoffs.

    8-12 would make us 25-28 on March 10, going into a 5 game home stand against Toronto, Dallas, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Charlotte. We also end the season with 5 consecutive home games and then one road game against a Cleveland team that probably won’t give a damn. I think ~41 wins gets us in.

    8-12 is doable. I know we shouldn’t be thinking playoffs, but at this point the playoffs are more likely than a top 10 pick, and the last thing we want to do is win 38 games and be the 10th best team in the east.

    What we do after that, I have no idea. I just don’t see the path forward for this team. We basically need KP and Frank to develop into the modern Kemp and Payton. I like both our guys but I’m not that optimistic.

    Under age 27, KP is a top five guy going forward. Under 23, probably top three. His value is higher than anyone’s number 1 pick and he’s worth more than anyone you will get in return.

    lol nah

    Jokic, 22
    Giannis, 23
    Capela, 23
    Simmons, 21
    Embiid, 23
    Tatum, 19
    Bell, 22
    Towns, 22

    If you want to say that he’s the player under 27 or under 23 that makes you most visibly tumescent, that’s fine. But arguing that he’s a top-3 player under 23? Like, seriously? I’d trade him for the #1 overall pick in a heartbeat, not only for the chance at a player who’s not more upside than production, but because you get to reset the rookie-scale clock — he’s about to get paid $150M in the hopes he turns into a franchise player. There is no perfect player on the above list (Towns’ defense, Simmons’ jumper, Embiid’s body) but every player above has been significantly more productive than Porzingis.

    But yes, Porzingis scores the points. He shoots the points. He makes the buckets, when he is not not making buckets. You really think he’s untouchable because he’s scored some points?

    if we dont make the playoffs and our road record does us in(which most people on this board would prefer), would beasley get us a second rounder at the deadline?

    8-12 would make us 25-28 on March 10, going into a 5 game home stand against Toronto, Dallas, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Charlotte. We also end the season with 5 consecutive home games and then one road game against a Cleveland team that probably won’t give a damn. I think ~41 wins gets us in.

    my apologies, was looking at the schedule wrong. It would make us 25-28 on Feb 3, less than a week before the trade deadline.

    To your point, Mase, I think if that’s where we wouldn’t throw in the towel. I think we’re going to need something like a 3-17 stretch to start cashing in on assets.

    Jokic, 22
    Giannis, 23
    Capela, 23
    Simmons, 21
    Embiid, 23
    Tatum, 19
    Bell, 22
    Towns, 22

    I wouldn’t trade KP for Capela, Simmons, Jokic, Bell or Tatum. None of thise guys are carrying the load of #1 option . . . or for that matter, even second option.
    Embiid – always injured. I wouldn’t do that deal either. That leaves Freak and Towns.
    My point being, KP is worth max money and foolish to let him get away.

    I’d trade him for the #1 overall pick in a heartbeat,

    Probably – No one is going to give a #1 overall for KP. And to make that trade, you have to be sure who you’re #1 pick is going to be. That’s no slam dunk. Take a loot at #1 overall picks the last two decades. You’re right, resetting the rookie clock is big. But you may also be resetting a young rookie learning curve.

    At least he knows he’s taking bad shots. That’s encouraging.

    If he reads his Twitter feed from Knicks fans I tell him that almost every day. lol

    I’ll take a stab at this:

    Jokic, 22
    Giannis, 23
    Capela, 23
    Simmons, 21
    Embiid, 23
    Tatum, 19
    Bell, 22
    Towns, 22

    1. I know he’s uber-everything on offense. Has his D improved at all?
    2. You can absolutely argue (and convince some into) trading KP for Giannis, but I’d feel you’d have to change or retool the way you build your roster around him.
    3. Um, he’s playing with James Harden and now Chris Paul. You think he’d be able to function as well around Jarrett Jack, Courtney Lee, THJr and Frank???
    4. Very intriguing, but too early.
    5. This is the second person on this list I’d trade KP for. However, I’d need to do some serious research in the health maintenance plan Philly has him on to know that A. His health and long term prognosis has improved under their handling, and B. Said plan can be carried out by the Knicks.
    6. Ditto to #4
    7. Up until this season, he would’ve been the third person on this list I’d trade KP for. Let’s see his at-the-rim defensive metrics, though.

    I think that Jokic, Embiid, Giannis and KAT are more fluid offensively than KP right now. But I like that KP is self-aware of his current limitations and struggles. I understand that “Superstars make The Leap in Year 3” – I feel that there’s a lot of context that needs to be qualified when defining what said Leap means.

    I’d trade him for the #1 overall pick in a heartbeat,

    Probably – No one is going to give a #1 overall for KP. And to make that trade, you have to be sure who you’re #1 pick is going to be. That’s no slam dunk. Take a loot at #1 overall picks the last two decades. You’re right, resetting the rookie clock is big. But you may also be resetting a young rookie learning curve.

    When Phil said he was answering the phone on KP he was looking for another young stud PLUS a high first rounder. Everyone said he was crazy.

    Charlie Rosen laid out a reasonable case based on injury risk and other factors. Maybe Phil wasn’t crazy. Maybe he wasn’t serious. Maybe both. Maybe KP will become a superstar in 3 years.

    I’d trade him for the #1 overall pick in a heartbeat,

    Probably – No one is going to give a #1 overall for KP. And to make that trade, you have to be sure who you’re #1 pick is going to be. That’s no slam dunk. Take a loot at #1 overall picks the last two decades. You’re right, resetting the rookie clock is big. But you may also be resetting a young rookie learning curve.

    When Phil was looking for another young stud PLUS a high first rounder everyone said he was crazy.

    Sure, you’ll get lots of teams offering a first rounder, but a #1 Overall?

    1. He’s had a good DBPM and DWS for the entirety of his career. Who cares if he’s not an elite defender? He’s the starting center of a league-average defense.

    2. You mean like the Knicks would have to stop looking for a competent PG after 20 years of ineptitude?

    3. 2011: “Sure, Tyson Chandler just won a chip as the lob dunker next to Kidd and Dirk. But can he function as well with Bibby, Toney Douglas, Baron Davis and Jeremy “UFA” Lin?” (Answer: yes, he can.) Capela’s enormous strengths are so evident that it would take a categorically-inept coach to misuse him. (So yeah, maybe he wouldn’t do well on the Knicks.)

    4. intriguing

    5. Ben Simmons has played 75% of the minutes that Embiid has, but it’s not too early to say on Embiid? Lol k

    6. Do you think Bell is going to forget how to jump high anytime soon?

    7. I agree that Towns is a shite defender, and I think he’s probably just slightly better than Porzingis overall if he’s as bad as the tape and his team’s defense suggests. But he’s just another name on a long list of players who have been vastly superior on offense to Porzingis, even though most of Porzingis’s value comes from his shooting.

    Id trade KP for Luka Doncic straight up and wouldn’t blink

    I think it’s true that KP requires more development time than other bigs—his body has trouble putting on weight and he’s a highly skills-based kind of player, so we should still recognize that he’s a project even if he’s ahead of the timetable we collectively gave him when drafting him. That said, that’s not exculpatory—that’s a risk. KP likely has the highest upside of anyone on that list with the exception of Giannis, but upside is what you’re paying for, since he has yet to produce commensurately to his hype, whereas the rest of the players on that list by and large have. Give me productivity over upside every time, in this case. However, we’re maxing KP no matter what, so the conversation is a bit moot. We just have to cross our fingers and hope.

    Does it matter that KP is statistically the most efficient rim defender in the NBA, while Jokic is Bargnani-level bad?

    There is no question KP is being allowed (or even encouraged) to shoot way too much, and to shoot the wrong shots. At this stage, he is simply not a 33+% usage player, especially with so many contested long 2’s in his recent brick-fests. (Although it’s fair to say he’s not the greatest finisher in traffic, either.)

    Towns has a 22.9% usage (he shot well at a higher usage last year, but not 33%)
    Jokic? 22.8%.
    Simmons? 23.1%
    Capella? 20.2%
    Tatum? 17.7%!!!!
    Bell? 14.6%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Giannis (by a fuckton), Towns and Simmons are all better right now than KP with equally unlimited ceilings. Embiid is a monster but could crumble into dust any minute. Jokic couldn’t protect a Fisher-Price rim. Capela is good, but he’s also playing behind two HOF guards in the best possible offensive situation for a rim-running dunk artist.

    I’d stay patient with KP for a couple more years, at least until we get a decent point guard or 2 on the team, or a monster high-usage wing. The combo of Jack and Ntilikina is about as bad as it gets on the offensive end.

    I think we’ll learn more when Hardaway comes back. It’s too easy for teams to double or help off guys like Lance Thomas and our PGs. When there is a second option on the court it will take some pressure off KP to always be the guy to bail out the broken possessions. I’m too lazy to do the calculations, but his TS% with Hardaway is probably better than without him. If his shot selection and efficiency doesn’t start improving a bit then, we’ll start running out of excuses.

    which begs the question, why isnt Mcdermott or even beasley starting over lance while thjr is out?

    Usage does not win basketball games.

    The “theory” is that if KP had some legitimate scoring and PG help like some of those other guys, his usage could go down and his efficiency could rise because he’d be taking fewer tough shots. I don’t think there’s some kind of exact formula for it. I think it’s dependent on the makeup of the team and the individual we are taking about. But when Lance Thomas and Jack/Frank are on the court with you and you are looking for Courtney Lee to create some shots for himself and be the second option, you are probably disadvantaged relative to playing with Harden, Paul, Ariza, and Anderson.

    When Phil said he was answering the phone on KP he was looking for another young stud PLUS a high first rounder.

    He asked for (and got turned down) Devin Booker and the #4 pick of the 2017 Draft (I don’t know who he would have targeted. Presumably Josh Jackson, but I don’t know). That would have been terrible value for Porzingis.

    3. 2011: “Sure, Tyson Chandler just won a chip as the lob dunker next to Kidd and Dirk. But can he function as well with Bibby, Toney Douglas, Baron Davis and Jeremy “UFA” Lin?” (Answer: yes, he can.) Capela’s enormous strengths are so evident that it would take a categorically-inept coach to misuse him. (So yeah, maybe he wouldn’t do well on the Knicks.)

    I agree with the Chandler bit. But I want to focus on the part in bold.

    We have had categorically inept offensive system in place since KP entered the league. Of course that negatively impacts him in relation to someone like Capela.

    Capela is tremendous and his statistical output on a per minute basis certainly supports your claim. I would argue his horrendous free throw shooting is an Achilles heel on par with Porzingis’ poor rebounding. But more importantly, I would argue that you’re ignoring the impact of playing in the dumbest offense in the league.

    This isn’t about gravity effect or usage or any of the silly claims people make that emphasize points over production. We have designed an offense that encourages Porzingis to take the worst shots in the NBA.

    To me, it’s not a question of “can Chandler do what he does with Mike Bibby and not Jason Kidd”. It’s more a question of “would Chandler be as effective if we designed an offense that asked him to post up and shoot from the elbow”. That’s how stupid I think this offense is. If you put Porzingis on Golden State or – god forbid – Houston, yes I think he would blow away his current production level, not because of his teammates, but because he’d have his shots changed immediately.

    As for that list… Giannis over KP is a no-brainer. I think everyone else there has as many flaws as KP.

    Embiid, in particular… how can you make the argument that one of KP’s flaws is we’re going to have to pay him $150mm after next season and he may not be worth it but ignore that Embiid already has his $150mm and he’s only played 56 games through 3.5 years?

    I’ve gotten to watch very little of the Knicks lately, but have been sort of trolling the NBA stats site to see patterns emerging. One very weird one is this:

    Over the last 15 games, the Knicks have the #5 DRtg in the league. I almost feel like that’s a misprint.
    Somehow, we have that DRtg in spite of giving up a league-worst 32 3PA/game — and if you believe all the statheads, 3PA are what truly matter, not 3P% since no team has shown the ability to consistently decrease 3P%-against. So it all feels unsustainable, yet 15 games is a pretty significant sample.

    At the same time, we are shooting the fewest 3PA/game by a gigantic margin over that same period of time – only about 18 attempts per game. So we’re #30 — #29 averages about 23 3PA/game. The 5 attempt/game difference between us (#30) and MIN (#29) is the same as the difference between MIN and the #18 team. It almost seems like we’re TRYING not to shoot 3 pointers. Over those 15 games, we have the #22 offense.

    What sort of Knick sorcery is it for the Knicks to have the #22 offense but #5 defense? This seems like it hasn’t ever happened.

    And… fewest 3PA-for, and highest 3PA-against –> doesn’t seem like a good prognostic sign.

    a lot of that has to be due to the fact our closest thing to a lead guard is injured except for lee

    For the defensive part, it might be true that we’re pretty good at defense even if not number 5. Of course, defending three pointers is important, but so is defending at the rim. I think we defend at the rim pretty well and some teams may be taking bad three pointers because they can’t get good shots inside.

    I don’t understand the offense part, but I think maybe our offensive rank went down after Hardaway was hurt. Does anyone know if this is the case? I don’t know how to look something like that up.

    KP, age 22: .551 TS%, 33.7 USG%, 11.9 TRB%, .140 WS48
    Melo, age 26: .547 TS%. 32.0 USG%, 11.8 TRB%, .138 WS48

    My problem in not with KP, but with THJ. When he’s hot, he’s great. The other 80% of the time he’s horrible. Talk about poor shot selection, he’s your guy. And he gets demonstrably annoyed with teammates on the court when he doesn’t get the ball.
    As a fourth option, he’s very good. As a third option, he’s okay. As a second option, awful.

    AsI see it, this is the path forward right now. The knicks are going to have to take some risk and make a trade. A smart trade. They have tradable assets (Willy, KOQ, Frank, Lee, draft picks) to fill in the missing pieces (PG, wing).
    Then, if they transform into the solid four seed in the Eastern Conference, hopefully they can get lucky and sign a free agent that dreams of playing half his games at MSG, and feels he can put this team over the top.

    @37 that’s actually the most bullish KP argument on the thread. 22 is a lot different than 26. and WS is close to agnostic on defense. a melo with impact D is a really valuable player. then again a .55 ts ain’t quite what it used to be. KP is not currently capable of being the rim runner everyone wants him to be. anyone see him try to finish on saric yesterday when he had him sealed under the hoop. just not strong enough, at least now. he’s not a baby, he’s just weak/has a high center of gravity. but if he just had a coach screaming at him to shoot more 3s, which sometimes gets him a lot of shit from the media and even on here, his TS would be even higher.

    the last 15 games thing is silly. adjusted for opp 3pt percentage and strength of schedule the d wasn’t any better. Opp 3pt pct is notoriously noisy over much longer stretches than 15 games.

    A better comparison might have been this one:

    KP, age 22: .551 TS%, 33.7 USG%, 11.9 TRB%, .140 WS48
    Melo, age 22: .552 TS%, 33.4 USG%, 8.9 TRB%, .140 WS48

    I mean, the guy is a dead ringer for Melo.

    But more importantly, I would argue that you’re ignoring the impact of playing in the dumbest offense in the league.

    Kanter: .640 TS% on 21 USG%
    O’Quinn: .608 TS% on 18 USG%
    Lee: .582 TS% on 17 USG%
    Doug McBuckets: .582 on 14 USG%
    Be-eazy (one of the worst names in the league, btw): .555 TS% on 30 USG% (!!!)

    And then there’s Porzingis. Why are we always blaming system for underperforming volume shooters when there are plenty of players putting up great efficiency on moderate USG%?

    We’ve got 5 players besting our “franchise player” in OBPM, 6 in ORtg.

    I mean sure KP and John wall have a lot in common at 22 also if we selectively focus on ws48 and usage. but it’s kind of a waste of a cpu that could be making cryptokitties. being a rim protector and defensive positive isn’t just a minor aspect of kp’s game, like being a pg isn’t a minor part of wall’s. Notice that when kanter plays without KP in the we game we are -18/100, just below where a G league team would land. Kanter was just as bad when he played without adams in okc. having a guy who can make up for defensive mistakes and be a plus and a distance shooter on offense is a big deal.

    KP is not a max contract player right now. but he’s significantly better than an identical ws/usage player who is a minus on defense like Melo or mark Aguirre or Devon booker. and Melo turned out to be a good offensive player. if you add that to plus defense you might easily get a max player, even if KP doesn’t really become the supermax unicorn of our dreams.

    Kanter: .640 TS% on 21 USG%
    O’Quinn: .608 TS% on 18 USG%
    Lee: .582 TS% on 17 USG%
    Doug McBuckets: .582 on 14 USG%
    Be-eazy (one of the worst names in the league, btw): .555 TS% on 30 USG% (!!!)

    And then there’s Porzingis. Why are we always blaming system for underperforming volume shooters when there are plenty of players putting up great efficiency on moderate USG%?

    We’ve got 5 players besting our “franchise player” in OBPM, 6 in ORtg.

    Because you can’t build a winning team if you only have players that score efficiently in limited ways (unless of course you have Shaq). Some players have to create unassisted shots, shoot tough mid rid range shots, take shots late in the clock etc.. It’s not that you want those shots. It’s that sometimes (fairly often actually) the defense wins the possession and forces you away from what you want.

    The franchise players are the ones that can do all that and remain efficient and the very good role players are the one that can score efficiently but in limited ways. We have KP in the franchise role, but he’s playing at Melo’s level. That’s not good enough for a franchise player.

    If you stuck him on a team where he was 3rd or 4th option and he only shot when he was at the rim, drawing fouls, wide open spotting up for 3, and squared up relatively close over a smaller player, he’d have a TS% over 60%. If you asked O’Quinn to do what KP is doing his TS% would be 45%.

    If you stuck him on a team where he was 3rd or 4th option and he only shot when he was at the rim, drawing fouls, wide open spotting up for 3, and squared up relatively close over a smaller player, he’d have a TS% over 60%.

    This is literally the argument people made about Melo for years, and this year is proving it’s bullshit.

    He asked for (and got turned down) Devin Booker and the #4 pick of the 2017 Draft (I don’t know who he would have targeted. Presumably Josh Jackson, but I don’t know). That would have been terrible value for Porzingis.

    I have a higher opinion of Devon Booker than most advanced stats guys and we have no idea who he liked in the draft. The only name I heard he liked was Jason Tatum. He would have been gone.
    Plus, we don’t know if he actually would have pulled the trigger.

    This is literally the argument people made about Melo for years, and this year is proving it’s bullshit.

    If you read my prior note on this issue I was clear to say there is no magic formula for this kind of thing. It’s dependent on the makeup of the team and the individual player. People have been trying to get Melo to change his shot selection for close to 15 years. That he refuses to do so does not mean everyone else is an idiot too. At this point though, I don’t think Melo is even capable of being highly efficient. When he was young he used to get to the free throw line a LOT. If he played that inside ball and shot spot up 3s he could have done it. His ego did not allow for it. Even now when he’s more limited his ego won’t allow it.

    Maybe KP is the same. We don’t know. But at least he’s saying he knows he’s taking a lot of bad shots. I think he could easily hit 40% from 3 if he only shot the open spot ups. If he picked his spots carefully beside that and got to the FT line some, he could do it.

    I have a higher opinion of Devon Booker than most advanced stats guys and we have no idea who he liked in the draft. The only name I heard he liked was Jason Tatum. He would have been gone.

    Woj said that Jackson was into Jackson, so I presume Jackson would have been the guy (since, as you note, Tatum was going to be off the board).

    Maybe KP is the same. We don’t know. But at least he’s saying he knows he’s taking a lot of bad shots. I think he could easily hit 40% from 3 if he only shot the open spot ups. If he picked his spots carefully beside that and got to the FT line some, he could do it.

    I should add that if KP totally backed off on some of what he is being asked to do, someone else would have to do more of it. We’d have O’Quinn and Kanter shooting mid range, McBuckets trying to create off the dribble etc…

    What we need is for KP to back off on some of the ridiculous stuff he does and try to get him more good shots.

    Woj said that Jackson was into Jackson, so I presume Jackson would have been the guy (since, as you note, Tatum was going to be off the board).

    Jackson has been pretty bad so far. We’ll see what he becomes.

    I’m not buying that we know what Phil was actually thinking beyond that “if” he did something with Phoenix, Booker would have to be part of it. I’m not sure Phil knew what he was doing. 🙂

    Honestly, I still don’t think he would have pulled the trigger. Just talking about it was probably one of the straws that broke the camel’s back. Porzingis has been hyped to hell, the fans love him, he’s very good with the press, and it’s a shame that this matters, but he’s a white guy. He’s a marketers dream. There were probably deals that made sense, but you’d get crucified if you did it.

    I wasn’t disagreeing with everything you said, Strat. Just that part of it.

    I don’t believe that Phil was seriously trying to trade KP. Rather, he was probably playing his BS mind games, teaching KP a lesson, etc. Stupid, yes, but he did not trade him. Ainge didn’t take the trade rumors seriously.

    BTW, for entertainment purposes only, check this out, SI.com’s “redraft” of last year’s draft. It has the Knicks taking Anunoby and Frank being undrafted through the first 14 (yet Monk is in there at 13):

    https://www.si.com/nba/2017/12/25/2017-nba-draft-jayson-tatum-lonzo-ball-markelle-fultz-kyle-kuzma

    If you stuck him on a team where he was 3rd or 4th option and he only shot when he was at the rim, drawing fouls, wide open spotting up for 3, and squared up relatively close over a smaller player, he’d have a TS% over 60%.

    This is literally the argument people made about Melo for years, and this year is proving it’s bullshit.

    Two players having similar stat lines doesn’t mean they are similar type players. It’s an abuse of metrics.
    That being said, KP was thrust into a similar role as Melo was, so there will be similarities. But KP is a much more willing passer and team oriented player. He’s 22 and stilling piecing his game together. Being the #1 option on an NBA team is a new role, the most difficult he’s ever had to play. Now add double teams to the mix. This is a enormous load to lift.
    KP spent the off-season getting physically stronger and refining new moves. Now he has new stuff to work on. He’s acknowledged it.
    Melo is a different animal. He was one of the best of a generation at creating his own shot, but also a ball stopping, hero baller more concerned with scoring than winning, with no commitment to defense that refused to change his ways. That’s not KP.

    But KP is a much more willing passer and team oriented player.

    He’s not a more willing passer. You pass him the ball, he’s shooting that ish. His 33.7 USG% and 6.9% AST% speak to this. Melo never had an AST% that low in his entire ballhogging career.

    But KP is a much more willing passer and team oriented player.

    He’s not a more willing passer.

    I hope this is something he’s not locked into. KP was a willing passer when he first came here.

    We still aren’t running sets designed to draw doubles to KP then giving him options for out passes. Every time he passes out of one we’re resetting. We need off-ball screens opening up guys for him to pass to before we’ll see KP getting more assists.

    damn! Throwback Tyson alley oop inbound for the win.

    He makes something like a gazillion dollars to play for them, so I can’t feel too bad for the guy, but ugh, he still could be a helpful piece on a contender instead of languishing his career away in Phoenix.

    Comments are closed.