Knicks Morning News (2017.03.04)

  • [NYDN] Knicks fall to 76ers on final possession, again
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 8:53:43 PM)

    A loss for the Knicks. A big victory for their number of Ping Pong balls.

  • [NYDN] Carmelo Anthony doesn’t want to hear about tanking
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 8:43:43 AM)

    Carmelo Anthony is longing for the playoffs.

  • [NYPost] Why tanking isn’t a full-proof strategy for Knicks: Exhibit A
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 10:37:46 PM)

    PHILADELPHIA — There is a segment of NBA followers who believe the fastest way to rebuild the Knicks is to tank the rest of this frustrating season to improve their chances of getting the first or second pick in the upcoming draft. Never mind that the Knicks still have a long-shot chance of qualifying for…

  • [NYPost] Carmelo takes veiled jab at coaches after ugly loss to 76ers
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 4:59:38 PM)

    PHILADELPHIA — Carmelo Anthony missed the shot and Derrick Rose took the blame. Another last-possession loss — and the Knicks probably won’t recover from this one. With the Knicks trailing by one, Anthony ended a disjointed night by missing a left-of-the-lane 14-foot fadeaway over a 76ers double-team with three seconds left as Philadelphia hung on…

  • [NYPost] Holiday brothers ‘dream’ of playing together, maybe on Knicks
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 10:32:00 AM)

    PHILADELPHIA – If point guard Jrue Holiday is to leave New Orleans as a free agent, the Knicks have an ace in the hole in drawing the former UCLA product the club passed up in the 2009 draft. Justin Holiday told The Post he and his brother have talked about playing together since they were…

  • [NYPost] Knicks tank job is Carmelo Anthony’s nightmare
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 8:19:38 AM)

    PHILADELPHIA – Saying he “misses the playoffs a lot,’’ Carmelo Anthony said it’s impossible for a player to embrace the tanking bandwagon across the final 21 games. The Knicks, who lost 105-102 to the Sixers on Friday night, are 4 1/2 games out of the eighth playoff seed in the Eastern Conference, needing to hop…

  • [NY Newsday] Carmelo Anthony, Courtney Lee miss shots in final seconds as Knicks fall to 76ers
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 11:16:45 PM)

    PHILADELPHIA — When the Knicks close their eyes at night, do they have nightmares of Franklin the Dog, the 76ers’ blue-furred mascot? Do they shudder when they see a cheesesteak? Because for a team that entered Friday night’s game preaching the importance of playing as if they still have a shot at the playoffs, the truth is that their greatest foil is none other than the 76ers.

  • [NY Newsday] Lose on purpose? Knicks’ Carmelo Anthony says no tanks
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 9:48:30 PM)

    PHILADELPHIA — The Knicks may have been neck-deep in 76ers territory for the last two days, but that doesn’t mean they were all that keen about taking part in the local custom. While 76ers management appears to have made tanking an art form, Carmelo Anthony said Friday that it is a “terrible way to think.”

  • [NY Newsday] Knicks Insider podcast: Playoff push is the right call
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 12:45:43 PM)

    Should the Knicks tank, or should they go for it all?

  • [NY Newsday] New York stars aging out of their prime, and city, at the same time
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 12:23:30 PM)

    Happy 35th birthday, Henrik Lundqvist! But more because of the 35 part than the birthday part.

  • [NYTimes] Knicks’ Playoff Hopes Take a Hit in Philadelphia
    (Saturday, March 04, 2017 4:02:31 AM)

    The 76ers, a team with little to look forward to this season, pulled out a 105-102 victory, thwarting several late opportunities for the Knicks.

  • [NYTimes] Jeanie Buss, Fearing Brothers’ Takeover of Lakers, Briefly Takes to Court
    (Saturday, March 04, 2017 5:28:21 AM)

    Jeanie Buss, the Lakers’ president and controlling owner, withdrew her court request after her brothers backed down on calling for a board meeting she felt was a move against her.

  • [NYTimes] Cavaliers Hit 25 3-Pointers, Setting N.B.A. Record for Regular Season Game
    (Saturday, March 04, 2017 3:45:09 AM)

    Cleveland’s Kyle Korver made the record-setting 3 in his return to Atlanta against the Hawks.

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks lose another nailbiter with 76ers, 105-102
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 9:47:49 PM)

    Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony both missed shots in the final 47 seconds as the 76ers edged the Knicks 105-102 Friday night in Philadelphia.

  • [SNY Knicks] Update: Justin Holiday would welcome brother Jrue as teammate
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 5:51:37 PM)

    The Knicks’ Justin Holiday hopes the team pursues his brother Jrue in free agency this offseason.

  • [SNY Knicks] Tonight’s game: Knicks at 76ers
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 6:15:06 PM)

    The New York Knicks face the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday at 7 p.m. at Wells Fargo Center.

  • [SNY Knicks] TheKnicksBlog Podcast: Noah Way Out
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 2:49:18 PM)

    TheKnicksBlog Podcast: Noah Way Out

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks, 76ers meet again in series of wire-to-wire games
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 1:15:06 PM)

    The New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers meet for the third time this season after their two previous games came down to the wire.

  • [SNY Knicks] Thomas, finally healthy, could provide value this offseason
    (Friday, March 03, 2017 10:15:35 AM)

    Lance Thomas is finally healthy and proving himself, which could provide some value to the Knicks this offseason.

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    Mike Kurylo

    Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

    88 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2017.03.04)”

    1. Fun game last night. Huge for the tank. Literally the perfect game – entertaining yet with the appropriate outcome.

      Lance is playing well – good to see him healthy again.

      Impressive balance re: shots across the starting lineup. Unfortunately KP’s last FGA was at ~5min left, and he never touched the ball again. That is, however, good for the tank.

      The Justin Holiday interview with NY Post is pretty interesting. Assuming that Phil is not going to do a total teardown (maybe he will, but I’ll believe that when I see it), a Jrue Holiday signing would be reasonable, especially if it’s for some reasonable amount of $. It’s kind of heard to imagine NO won’t outbid everyone, but who knows whether Holiday actually likes it there.

      Before everyone jumps on me, I DO believe that the best course of action is to trade Melo if he will accept it, dump Phil, and rebuild around the young guys. That said, I don’t think it’s likely that is what happens.

      Best case scenario I can envision long-term is that the team stumbles along for 2 more years under Phil. Melo retires/moves on/gets traded. And to run basketball operations, Dolan spends $15MM per year over a 5 year contract to hire….

      Theo Epstein

    2. Melo re the Triangle:

      “I had to adjust my game a lot for the sake of the actual system we’re running,” Anthony said. “So I went from playing fast-paced to kind of more slowing it down and getting set, and try to figure it out from there.”

      This is a pretty interesting take. I never thought of his offensive game as “fast-paced” unless he thinks it means chucking up shots with abandon before an offensive set unfolds. If anything, the criticism has been that he holds the ball too long in his hands and allows the defense too much time to adjust as he isolates.

      But now that’s two veiled criticisms of our new emphasis by Rose and now Carmelo versus one major endorsement by Kristaps. If you pay careful enough attention you can see the subtle dividing lines.

    3. Jrue Holiday is likely going to get paid $20 million plus per year on a long-term deal, yet has a career WS48 of .078, a career TS% of .515, and a career eFG% of .484. His numbers this year aren’t much different. With that resume, why don’t we just sign Rose?

      I mean, do we really care if the two brothers want to play together? Hopefully that means that when NO near-maxes Jrue, Justin will sign out there for a mid-level type deal. I want no part of Jrue.

    4. Last night, Melo clearly was doing his own thing.
      ISO Melo on several possessions. Quick shots. Poor shot selection.

      I don’t know why, but I am continually caught off guard by just how disinterested he is in defense.
      1. He jogs back in transition.
      2. He switches needlessly.
      3. He sags off three point shooters.
      4. He so often is a bystander in the paint.
      5. He never brings weak side support.

      It is stunning for a max player who some presume is a team leader to be so disinclined to defend, and so unwilling to play in a system.
      To be clear, he has worked against every coach in NY except Woodson, who let him do whatever the hell he wanted. He also worked against his coach in Denver.
      He’s basically the same ball hog, volume scorer he was early in his career, just without the athleticism. How many times is he going to jab step 10 seconds off the clock? I mean, at the first jab step, every team should bring the double becUse everyone knows he’s going to take that shot. It’s his tell.
      Single-handedly he lost that game. And KP is simply better. He should be the team focal point. But he needs to stop committing dumb fouls.

      So many winnable games wasted this year.

    5. Lance is the type of guy Phil wants to keep around but its good that he’s increasing his trade value anyways.

    6. His numbers this year aren’t much different. With that resume, why don’t we just sign Rose?

      Because that career .078 WS/48 is significantly higher than what Derrick Rose has posted up in his career since his knee bailed out (-0.036, .038, .009, .055) at age 23. Because Derrick Rose has been a negative defensive influence upon the teams he’s played on for his entire 8 season career (-1.3 DBPM) and has been especially horrendous in that department the last 4 years of his career (-2.2 DBPM). Because Derrick Rose is a narcissistic primadonna who can’t even run a simple motion offense.

      I can’t even believe we’re having this discussion where some is making a case for signing Derrick Rose to a contract over any big name FA point guard this offseason.

    7. It’s simple–don’t sign either of them.

      There, I solved the conundrum.

    8. @4

      I can’t believe the NY media still hasn’t grilled him for what has been a horrendous season. I suppose by casting their lot against Phil they’ve ensured that everyone set against his designs is going to get a free pass. This, of course, is yet another reason why they’re so full of shit. I suppose it would help if Phil actually manned up and candidly spoke with members of the press in a humble way about his missteps as Knicks GM. But this is besides the point to me. Here you have someone being paid good money talking about not wanting to tank when his play on the court has been the opposite of winning basketball.

      Its just more of what makes being a Knicks fan so damn hard. They give you so few people to root for in this shitty organization. Our owner’s a bloated idiot with delusions of grandeur. Our GM is an arrogant prig. Our team leader and all-star is self-serving and overpaid.

    9. Philmelo, man are you dense!

      I’m no making an argument for signing Derrick Rose. I’m making an argument against signing Jrue Holiday. Do I really have to explain that to you?!

      Jrue Holiday’s career WS48 is .023 higher than Rose’s is this year. At .o78, it is .022 below .100, which is the WS48 of an average player, in case you didn’t know that. My point is, signing either statistically well below average guy to an expensive long-term deal is stupid.

      Was that really so hard to understand?

    10. I’m no making an argument for signing Derrick Rose. I’m making an argument against signing Jrue Holiday.

      That was one point you argued, which I have no issue with. But you also argued this:

      His numbers this year aren’t much different. With that resume, why don’t we just sign Rose?

      This is flat out wrong and dumb. Derrick Rose is abyssal. By virtue of the comparison you originally made Jrue Holliday is so much better the past three seasons. Pretending like their the same quality of player is so unfair. Especially when any FA out there would be a better fit for this team than Derrick Rose.

      Jrue Holiday’s career WS48 is .023 higher than Rose’s is this year.

      Which you fail to mention is by far Derrick Rose’s best season in the past five years since his surgery.

    11. Based on WS48, they are very similarly bad. My point is that they are both well below average players not worth anywhere near what they will be paid next year. And my point was directed at Frank’s post. But I’ll keep trying to keep things simple for you.

    12. My point is that they are both well below average players not worth anywhere near what they will be paid next year.

      Your point was that we’d be just as bad signing either player. That’s just so untrue. Its like saying getting shot in the foot is the same being shot in the face because you’re getting shot either way.

      And my point was directed at Frank’s post.

      So? You didn’t address it specifically to him.

    13. Derrick Rose is so fucking bad this season that a .055 WS/48 is him actually trying for a big contract. And even in that attempt he fucked up so badly he’s managed to go AWOL on this team before practice and a game, criticized Hornacek’s coaching style by openly wishing he was more like Thibedeau and talked shit about the team’s offensive system (“random basketball”).

      Z-Man is woefully overrating Rose, which is pretty hard to do.

    14. If Derrick Rose ever got a contract from us it would be Stephon Marbury 2.0. That’s the level of mental instability, unaccountability, immaturity, and narcissism we’re talking about here.

    15. I mean, I guess if we’re content to be a mid-30’s win team for the next 4 years then sure, let’s sign Jrue Holiday. Below average PG’s are kind of our thing, really.

    16. Even if all that is true, on the basketball court he is only marginally less productive than Holiday. Is that so hard to process? And in case it escaped your notice, Holiday is also in a contract year and is playing exactly to his mediocre career numbers. Way to step it up, Jrue! But don’t worry, someone will be willing to pay you, hopefully not us.

    17. Even if all that is true,

      It is true. Everything I’ve listed about him is documented. Remember, this is Rose’s actual behavior during a contract season when he’s trying to impress the front office into extending him.

      on the basketball court he is only marginally less productive than Holiday.

      Well, not relatively. Considering that this is Rose’s best season since his first surgery you have to also factor in the fact that a .023 difference in WS/48 performance is pretty big when the lower performing player is producing at a .055 clip. That’s like a 45 percent markup in performance for Rose.

      Holiday is also in a contract year and is playing exactly to his mediocre career numbers.

      But Holliday isn’t a malcontent twat. So he wins by virtue of not only by giving his team Derek Rose and a half production but also by being a relatively normal, well adjusted adult.

      Way to step it up, Jrue! But don’t worry, someone will be willing to pay you, hopefully not us.

      See, the problem isn’t that I think Jrue’s so great but that you fail to recognize how shitty Rose has been. But you’ll get there in understanding. I believe.

    18. Z-man, I agree we shouldn’t sign Holiday, but it’s important not to put too much stock into one advanced metric. For example, there is a real sense in which WS/48 is more primitive than BPM and perhaps RPM. WS/48 is based on the weights Dean Oliver used in Basketball on paper, before we started seeing the more sophisticated regressions on more granular data available to improve the coefficients and reduce guesswork. Dean Oliver himself would mostly agree with this. This is a far cry from saying that either BPM or RPM are definitive, not even close, only that a strong argument can be made that they use a more robust set of information in a more sophisticated way than WS does (I won’t go into again why I think Wins Produced is so flawed as to be completely worthless).

      On both a BPM and RPM basis, Holiday has spent the last three years as a well above average player, while Rose has spent them as a well below average player, close to replacement level — a huge difference. An important reason for this is defense, a difference that definitely meets my personal eye test. A second reason has to do with the interaction of individual statistics. Regressions have found that guards with poor efficiency that also have mediocre assist rates, such as Rose at ~5/36, are on average, very unproductive players. This is especially true for guards who are very inefficient like Rose, compared to guards who are just a bit inefficient like Holiday. They have also found that very low 3PT% in interaction with these traits are highly detrimental. It’s hard to turns these regressions into reliable stories, but in this case it’s very easy to imagine why a point guard who is neither a playmaker nor a floor spacer and does not score efficiently, might be a much worse player than a point guard who is more of a playmaker and 3 point threat, and scores a bit more efficiently.

    19. Wow, I missed the fact that Knicks have the 7th worst win percentage in the NBA right now. A stab at the Futile Five doesn’t seem like a such long shot. We’re a real dark horse candidate to the bottom.

      Tough schedule coming up though. The Warriors, Magic, Bucks, Pistons, and Nets are next. That’s 3 out of 5 teams we have a real shot of beating.

    20. My question is what would we spend our cap on if not a good player like jrue?

      We ve witnessed the bad signing already with Noah.

    21. @20 Lin beating us twice to end of the season and helping us draft higher would be hilarious.

    22. My question is what would we spend our cap on if not a good player like jrue?

      I’m guessing someone like Darren Collison or Ty Lawson.

    23. Don’t sign Jrue Holiday. He sucks. Don’t sign Derrick Rose. He sucks. If you’re gonna sign Holiday, you might as well sign Rose because they both suck and Rose gives us a better chance at being awful.

    24. @20 Lin beating us twice to end of the season and helping us draft higher would be hilarious.

      Linsanity’s Revenge.

    25. If you’re gonna sign Holiday, you might as well sign Rose because they both suck and Rose gives us a better chance at being awful.

      Why would you want a better chance of being awful for the next 3 years? You want to tank that long?

    26. I’m down for one more season of the tank. After that I’d like us to start trying to win games again.

    27. Neither of the two are needle movers, bro. I want nothing to do with either of their next contracts unless it’s 2020 and New Orleans is giving us Holiday and their 1st round pick to take him off of their hands. WP48 likes Holiday a considerable difference more but anything over $14M AAV is a dramatic overpay and you just know he’s gonna get what Kent Bazemore got.

    28. The Knicks best option is to trade for Ricky Rubio if the Wolves are hell bent on getting rid of him. Rubio is a great PG at a great price. He’s likely to be the #1 player available this off season in either FA or the trade market once you consider his salary and his production. That is what the Knicks should do. I would have no problem watching Rubio, Lee, Melo, Porzingis, Hernangomez, O’Quinn, and Lance Thomas next year. If we draft a useful player or two and make some good low value signings we’ll be on our way.

    29. @29

      Me too – at most. That’s because I might want Donkic. For me the point would be to rebuild beginning the end of this season while parlaying Melo into a pick or two down the road so we don’t have to worry about our draft spot while trying to win games as we’ve done this season.

    30. I’m not huge on tanking next year because I enjoy watching my team win basketball games. Draft an impact player, trade for Rubio, and sign Joe Ingles. Let’s get back to winning.

    31. @32 Yeah that plans fine too. Doncic and Frank is my dream backcourt for this team.

    32. Rubio’s inability to shoot this far into his career is a real red flag for me. There really shouldn’t be much of an excuse why a player can’t work on their shot to become at least 40 percent field goal average having played six seasons in the NBA.

    33. Doncic and Ntilikina make a lot of sense together. Frankie can play on or off the ball and so can Doncic, but Luka is really more of a ball dominant 2 than Klay Thompson. They would also give us 4 Europeans in the starting 5 from different countries.

    34. Hypothetically speaking, how worried about Rubio’s shooting would you be if we put him on a roster with Courtney Lee, Joe Ingles, Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis, Lance Thomas, Kyle O’Quinn, and Willy Hernangomez? I wouldn’t worry a bit. Not one bit.

    35. Yeah, Donic is more of a dynamic playmaker than Ntilikina so the ball would be more in his hands. It would be a dream to have a lineup of Willy, KP, Doncic, and Frank together.

    36. @38

      I would still be very worried. Rubio would throw off our halfcourt spacing with perimeter defenders backing off him while not being a major threat (though he does draw fouls going to the basket) to beat dudes off the dribble.

    37. Looking at the standings, it’s amazing how bad the Lakers have become. Remember, they were 10-10 at one point. Now they’re 19-43 and a lock for a bottom-3 record.

    38. Just need to add a young 3&D guy to that core and we’re set.

      I was thinking that getting an Anunoby type forward who can guard the wing would be perfect for that group. His 3 point shot isn’t so hot though.

    39. What is Jrue going to do for us at this point? Bringing back the same crew with Jrue replacing Rose is not going to make a material difference. Best case scenario is puttering along at the bottom of the East playoff race. Worst case scenario is underachieving again and being locked into long-term deals for Noah AND Jrue AND Melo AND Lee.

      We are not one player away. This team has huge flaws. Forget the patching. We need reconfiguration, starting with moving Melo. That is a necessity. As long as he’s here, we’ll have one guy dominating the offense with many poor shots, playing no defense, and inspiring no one to get better. You can’t build around someone like that.

    40. I’ve not watched that much of Jrue, but he’s by no means as bad as Rose. Rose is the absolute pits as a player and teammate. A horrendous excuse for a point guard. I think he’ll get offers from teams that see him as a combo guard bench scorer, but I’ll be shocked if he gets max or near from anyone.

      I’ll be so happy when he is gone. The only slightly silver lining to the bad Rose trade is he’ll be gone after just 1 year, leaving some cap space, and there is the 2nd round pick. J Holiday might be gone, too. I think he’ll get LT money from someone.

      Rebuild. Trade Melo, please. Use the cap space to sign cheap younger players, or maybe take flyers again on guys for one year. See if Rubio can be acquired as a hold the fort guy while the young PG develops. I have a feeling that Phil will covet Ntilikina in the draft because of his size and versatility. But, he’s raw. Let’s get a real PG to help KP and Willy.

      Don’t dump guys like OQ or Lee for nothing. If a 1st round pick is offered, then go for it (but I don’t think that they’re going to get a 1st for OQ).

    41. Wow, did you guys see that 12 second clip of Jahlil Okafor’s terrible defense against the Heat that is going around the internet?

      Here is Okafor’s odd defense of his defense in that clip:

      “I know about the clip that everybody’s been talking about,” Okafor said after shootaround Friday. “The persona of me not caring defensively is false. I took it upon myself to talk to our defensive coach Lloyd Pierce to ask about that individual clip. He said that I did the defensive concepts and that was to retreat, retreat, retreat.

      “And I understand visually it looks bad. I was fatigued. I played the entire first quarter and I was tired. I’m not making excuses. … I did do what I was supposed to do and that’s retreat. We had an amazing roller in Hassan Whiteside so my job was to not let [Dragic or Whiteside] behind me. Of course [McGruder] runs in to get the offensive rebound and I’m [accountable] for that, too. That’s my fault, supposedly. That’s what everyone’s trying to make it out to be. The coaches are happy with the way I’ve been improving and every day I continue to work.”

      The dude is so tired he can’t even be bothered to lift his arms up? Really?

    42. B-Jennings unloading on his old team BTW:

      “I’m in the same position I was in New York,” Jennings said after his Wizards debut, via CSN Mid-Atlantic’s Chase Hughes, “but just in a better system for me personally and with a team that actually plays together.

    43. I don’t think Jrue is close enough to Rose to be considered similar. He shoots well enough that you can’t ignore his three pointer on defense, which is not the case with Rose, and he also is a much better defender. Those are big differences in how the team will play overall.

      I agree with The other Holiday that the Knicks often don’t play as a team. Rose is the biggest offender, maybe followed by Melo. I’m hoping Phil doesn’t re-sign Rose for that reason.

    44. I’m hoping that since the free agent market this offseason is so thin, Phil is forced to rebuild after striking out on all his quick-fix guys of choice. Needless to say, maxing out Jrue Holiday would be an awful idea. We’re lucky New Orleans will probably save us from our own stupidity.

    45. Jrue is vastly better than Rose. He’s a bit turnover prone and he’s only a decent shooter, but he’s at least a league average PG. There are far worse ways to spend free agent money than signing a decent player who is 26. He’d almost certainly be overpaid, but that’s generally what happens when you sign free agents. The big problem with Jrue is he hasn’t played more than 2000 minutes in 5 years.

    46. I do hope we get a veteran PG that’s able to get Willy and KP the ball. Whoever we draft will probably suck his first few years.

    47. It’s not even anything against Jrue Holiday. He’s a fine player. We’re just so far from one player of his caliber away from being even an above average team. We’ve seen this play so many times before.

    48. After watching De’Aaron Fox, I really want him on our team. His lackluster playmaking ability kind of worries me, but his defense is superb and that’s something I’ve been wanted in a point guard for years. I think he isn’t as bad of a shooter as he has shown this year, and think that his passing is bound to improve with his quickness and ability to penetrate. At his absolute worst, he could be like a better passing/rebounding/defending Derrick Rose.

    49. Also, Robert Williams has insane physical tools and has been showing what he is capable of lately.

    50. For a quick comparison between the relative accuracy of different advanced metrics, here’s the weighted r^2 values on a 14 year sample of RAPM:

      Minutes/game: .280
      PER: .388
      WS/48: .525 (wrt D-RAPM: .140)
      DWS/48: .565 (wrt D-RAPM)
      BPM: .661 (wrt D-RAPM .194)
      DBPM: .620 (WRT D-RAPM)

      Wins produced/48 has an r^2 significantly lower than PER, and PER isn’t useful, so you have an idea of WP/48’s usefulness

      BPM fits the data the best while WS/48 comes in a distant second (but is probably still worth considering)

      Can anyone who’s more statistically savvy explain why there’s such a difference in r^2 wrt DRAPM between dbpm/dws and their respective all in one stats? Is it because of the comparatively high weights for offense/some kind of weighting interaction?

    51. 1. The Knicks blew it badly by not trading for Rubio because #1, he’s good and #2, they are going to have to pay more money for a worse player in the off season. Even if they manage to get him in the off season, they probably won’t be able to use Rose to do it. They’ll have to use different assets, which of course sucks because we might have used those assets to fill another need besides PG. IMHO, not closing on that deal is one of the greatest blunders of the Jackson era.

      2. Holiday is having a career season. I don’t think WS48 captures his contribution. IMO, he’s an above average player, but unfortunately he’s not worth was he’s probably going to make. So signing him would be an error.

      3. Even if we draft a solid PG prospect, he’s probably not going to be ready to contribute significantly for a couple of years.

      4. Given #2 and #3, loop back to number #1.

      5. I’m not a huge fan of the triangle because it seems to be too complicated for many players to learn. 2 out of of 3 of our main offensive players (Rose and Melo) seem to lack the basketball IQ to play it correctly and make the adjustments required when defenses adjust to our basic play. So they whine about the system. They must be traded.

    52. Jrue is pretty good. Rubio is pretty good. Neither one is going to make a difference to the short-term fortunes of this team.

      We are nowhere close to being one player away. We have to start thinking big picture.

    53. For a quick comparison between the relative accuracy of different advanced metrics, here’s the weighted r^2 values on a 14 year sample of RAPM:

      Why use RAPM as the “real” data points to measure against? Confused.

    54. Rubio is good enough to justify the extra wins he would’ve gotten us down the stretch, assuming the cost really was just Rose and Kuz or whatever.

    55. For a quick comparison between the relative accuracy of different advanced metrics, here’s the weighted r^2 values on a 14 year sample of RAPM:

      Why use RAPM as the “real” data points to measure against? Confused.

      From my understanding, RAPM is the best account of player productivity that we have that is publicly available given that it’s plus minus with much of the noise and unreliability ironed out. The issues with it vis a vis box score metrics like BPM and WS is that 1. It is less explanatory (a player’s productivity on offense at least is fully explained by the prior weights we give to each individual box score stats in the case of advanced box score metrics) and 2. that we have a relatively limited reliable sample of play by play metrics–the NBA only started tracking plus minus in 05 or so.

      If you’re interested in comparing players from different eras, or having a better idea of why a player might be better than another (assuming you take the metric’s priors as legit) than box score metrics fill the job. But they are going to be less all encompassing and accurate measures of player productivity because they are based exclusively on box scores and weighted priors rather than by play by play plus minus which has all the individual productivity info built into it that is then corrected for noise and reliability in APM and its variants.

      At least that’s my understanding of it.

    56. The Knicks best option is to trade for Ricky Rubio if the Wolves are hell bent on getting rid of him. Rubio is a great PG at a great price. He’s likely to be the #1 player available this off season in either FA or the trade market once you consider his salary and his production. That is what the Knicks should do. I would have no problem watching Rubio, Lee, Melo, Porzingis, Hernangomez, O’Quinn, and Lance Thomas next year. If we draft a useful player or two and make some good low value signings we’ll be on our way.

      Can we S&T Rose for Rubio at end of season? I guess that Rose would like to play again for Thibs, and Thibs would give him more money than any other team. Whatever blocked the deal at the deadline might change in summer.

    57. maybe we can bring back thannasis antetokounmpo and chris smith too and just max out our brother power. We already have Plumlee #3.

    58. @65
      I’ve wondered about a S&T, too. Minny can probably just sign Rose with cap space, but if they still do want to move Rubio’s salary and years, maybe they can work a deal?

    59. I wonder if we could possibly steal Josh Hart somehow in this draft. He seems like one of those do-everything wings that are just good 2-way players. Dude is a good defender, shooting 50% from the field overall, 40% on 3s, 57% on 2P as a 6’6″ guard is pretty solid.

      One interesting possibility would be to trade back with Portland if our guy is not on the board at wherever we pick. Right now we’re #7 and Portland has #11, 21, and 28.

    60. Normally I’d support a trade down because we need to make up for a lot of lost time as far as accumulating assets goes. This draft, however, really does seem to have a clear drop off after the 9th pick. I guess I’d be cool with getting Robert Williams and Hart or something but if Fox is available where we are I’d grab him.

    61. Can anyone who’s more statistically savvy explain why there’s such a difference in r^2 wrt DRAPM between dbpm/dws and their respective all in one stats? Is it because of the comparatively high weights for offense/some kind of weighting interaction?

      I think the biggest reason is that we don’t measure many high information boxscore inputs relative to defensive productivity. We measure blocks, which turn out to be surprisingly low-information on average, steals (much higher), and we get some strange information from what are primarily offensive stats and their interaction as proxies for defensive production. But these proxies are very noisy; for example, John Stockton is hurt because the combination of a very high asst% relative to TRB% on average is informative for worse defense. But of course rather often this signal will be a head fake. The offensive measures we have are just more direct and more nuanced and thus contain more information. To a lesser extent it is also probably true that defense is a bit noisier and has more complex interactive and contextual effects that are hard to measure.

      But there is a lot more information now because of SportVu, et al., and the BPM’s of the future (and also the present, but not in the public domain) will use more granular inputs that do at least a bit better at summarizing defensive production.

    62. Why use RAPM as the “real” data points to measure against? Confused.

      The long-term RAPM r-squareds aren’t really interesting, for many reasons, but mostly because they often conflate the testing period with an out of sample period, which is a data-mining no-no. Using RAPM as the dependent variable in determining coefficients is a different story, though, and is just a way of extracting more information (minimizing noise and collinearity).

      Of course you still have to test your model out of sample to know whether you are saying anything at all. But the out of sample testing does not have to ridge regress or do anything else to the point differential. It can just do something simple like measure how well your model predicts actual point differential via root mean squared error in a period you did not test, like this guy does:

      http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/07/26/introducing-dredge-a-play-by-play-derived-metric/

    63. A Jrue/KP/Melo + Willy, Oquinn I think probably makes the playoffs. If they all stay healthy and Kurt Rambis fired.

      Not saying it would be a good signing though. But Phil is gonna overspend somewhere

    64. Cavs GM David Griffin said today “We got Iman Shumpert without giving up a first-round pick because we were willing to take on JR Smith.” If that’s the truth that’s just fucking awful by Phil Jackson. He honestly thought it was more important to giveaway JR instead of acquiring a 1st rd pick even if it was from the Cavs? JR was a free-agent at the end of that season for crying out loud.

    65. Cavs GM David Griffin said today “We got Iman Shumpert without giving up a first-round pick because we were willing to take on JR Smith.” If that’s the truth that’s just fucking awful by Phil Jackson. He honestly thought it was more important to giveaway JR instead of acquiring a 1st rd pick even if it was from the Cavs? JR was a free-agent at the end of that season for crying out loud.

      If I recall correctly JR had a player option, but that doesn’t make it any more excusable. If you think JR is so toxic just waive him and take the damn pick. Alas, we needed the space to make our run with Arron Afflalo and Derrick Williams.

    66. @BBA, that is Phil Jackson’s M.O. since he got here. He opted out of Larkin’s deal before he played a game to clear like $2m in cap room, and he did the same thing with Felton, getting less in return for Tyson to save $4m/year for the following 1-2 seasons.

      Larkin of course ended up disappointing, but at the time Jackson made that choice, you had a former #18 pick entering his second year after a year where he missed near half the season due to injury. There was no way of knowing what kind of growth you’d see.

      It’s the same thing with his unwillingness to give up like $500k of cap room to get multi-year partially guaranteed contracts on his end of bench signings like Galloway and Lance Thomas.

      Same thing with his choice to sign one year contracts with Afflalo and Derrick Williams when he was unable to get what he wanted in summer 2015.

      Jackson doesn’t or at least didn’t think there was any need to make investments in players. He either thought he was enough of a brand to woo top FAs or get discounts on FAs or he thought the triangle was magical enough that he didn’t need either of those things.

    67. I also wouldn’t at all be surprised if he turned down opportunities for first round picks at the deadline because he didn’t want to take back salary.

    68. If Frank Mason III really goes as late as some mocks have him, I see no reason we shouldn’t be all over him.

    69. Frank Mason on film doesn’t have the speed to get past college defenders. He’s also short and 23 years old in a month. Great college player but not likely to make it as an NBA player. This is also his first year where he really looks like an NBA prospect. I’ll pass.

    70. It’s the same thing with his unwillingness to give up like $500k of cap room to get multi-year partially guaranteed contracts on his end of bench signings like Galloway and Lance Thomas.

      In general, I absolutely agree with you regarding your general critique of Jackson. Dude has been way too obsessed about cap space so far. But on this one specific point, Galloway wouldn’t accept a third year (because he rightfully believed that he would make more money as a RFA after his second year. Basically Galloway was betting on himself). So that’s not on Jackson.

    71. Frank Mason on film doesn’t have the speed to get past college defenders. He’s also short and 23 years old in a month. Great college player but not likely to make it as an NBA player. This is also his first year where he really looks like an NBA prospect. I’ll pass.

      These would all be good reasons to not take him with a first round pick. The second round is a beggars can’t be choosers situation. We know he’s gotten by despite his size and athleticism deficiencies at the college level. I would have no qualms about using the 57th pick to see if he could continue to do so in the NBA.

      It also obviously depends on who else is available. Josh Hart (I think he’ll go in the first round), Dillon Brooks, Caleb Swanigan, Alonzo Trier, Ethan Happ, Jawun Evans, Nigel Williams-Goss, Chris Boucher, and Isiah Briscoe are all at least somewhat intriguing to me.

    72. The bottom of the standings have started to separate into tiers. Phoenix and LAL look like locks to finish in the bottom 3 behind Brooklyn. Then there are 9 teams, including the Knicks, all within 3.5 games of each other.

      The Knicks basically can’t finish lower than 12th in the tank sweepstakes or higher than 4th.

    73. I don’t see us having a worse record than Philly, Orlando, or Sac either. That would leave us with a best-case scenario of 7th.

    74. Brogdon is the betting favorite for ROY, but I think Saric looks more like the prototypical rookie of the year guy. I wonder if the odds will change.

    75. Did anyone hear about how Karl Anthony Towns’ father is suing the Minnesota Timberwolves for hurting his leg during a mascot stunt? Oh, yeah, that’s a pretty big fucking deal come down the line when it comes to renegotiate a contract. If only we clear enough space for when the opportunity comes I am willing to bet that he will want to become a Knick.

    76. The odds should change to Willy Hernangomez.

      Oh, I’m not saying who deserves it, just who the odds will be. Fair or not, Billy doesn’t even seem to be in the conversation. I think Billy has a strong case for ROY, but he doesn’t seem to be even in the mix. I think Embiid, for instance, still has an actual chance, with how wide open it is. Embiid is the only rookie to win Rookie of the Month more than once this season (he’s won it three times). Saric just won Rookie of the Month in the East and he’s the Sixers’ featured player now, which is why I think he’ll likely take the award.

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