Knicks Morning News (2015.07.08)

  • [New York Daily News] Knicks rookies Porzingis, Grant top summer league roster (Wed, 08 Jul 2015 03:55:29 GMT)

    Phil Jackson’s boys of summer are headed for Las Vegas. First-round picks Kristaps Porzingis and Jerian Grant headline the Knicks’ roster.

  • [New York Times] Sports Briefing | Pro Basketball: Golden State Warriors Trade David Lee (Wed, 08 Jul 2015 04:15:33 GMT)

    Lee, an expensive bench player, has been traded to the Boston Celtics for Gerald Wallace.

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    Mike Kurylo

    Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

    164 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2015.07.08)”

    1. The Orlando-Jah signing got me excited. Then I remembered that we have heard nothing about Bargs, and my fears still won’t abandon me.

    2. Still, 4.3 millions for Jah? And Biyombo gets 3? And Thomas Robinson goes for the minimum? Still many Basketball PhD GMs, I see.

    3. we’re not bringing back bargs for more than $2M, would that be the worst thing in the world?

    4. we’re not bringing back bargs for more than $2M, would that be the worst thing in the world?

      that would be the worst thing in the world, if for no other reason than that we need to move on from the previous regime’s mistakes. Bargnani has turned out to be one of this franchise’s biggest mistakes, and we can’t let his stink permeate this newly constructed roster.

      Bring back Shved, Amundsen, +/- Lance Thomas or one of the other kids on the summer league squad. No Bargain.

    5. I think Bargs is, at best, an actual waste of a roster spot for us. I can see Bargs being a useless but not necessarily damning 4th big for a semi-contender, but we need to keep roster spots to sign young guys during the season.

      I hope GM Doc isn’t done in mismanaging the Clips’ roster: Bargs could be his next blunder.

    6. Barges might also fit what Stan Van Gundy wants.

      It’s kind of telling about Barg’s reputation that Jah was hired as a free agent first. But I don’t think Barg’s is worse than Jah, so he should find a taker.

    7. Does KFC still sell that Double Down monstrosity on your side of the ocean?

      I don’t think so, but Pizza Hut is putting hotdogs in their pizza crust to pick up the slack.

    8. we need to keep roster spots to sign young guys during the season.

      Not that I have any interest in keeping Bargs around (maybe they can use him as a living example of what not to become for Zinger?… a teaching tool), but how many good young guys really become available as free agents during the season? What are the chances of actually finding a rotation player from that group of players? (Honest question, not a smartass comment.)

      that would be the worst thing in the world, if for no other reason than that we need to move on from the previous regime’s mistakes. Bargnani has turned out to be one of this franchise’s biggest mistakes, and we can’t let his stink permeate this newly constructed roster.

      My guess is that would be more of a fan narrative than anything that would actually impact the team. I don’t really care if he comes back either way since he’s not very good, but team chemistry is a complex thing that I don’t feel like we’re in much of a position to speculate on in most cases as fans.

    9. I can’t imagine it’s good for team chemistry to bring back a guy who misses months of games with minor ailments…never mind the fact he’s a net negative every minute he’s on the court.

      Z-man, that cartoon is great. Thanks for sharing. A Disgrace of the Highest Order indeed!

    10. I don’t recall Bargs being any sort of bad influence regarding team chemistry.

      He just sucks at basketball.

      What are the chances of actually finding a rotation player from that group of players?

      It can be lower than 0,01%. Just throw a dice with six names under 24 and hire the lucky one.

      Bargs is a known product. A bad one. If you have even a small chance of getting some value paying close to the minimum, why not? Because he’s not gonna give anything.

    11. I can’t imagine it’s good for team chemistry to bring back a guy who misses months of games with minor ailments…never mind the fact he’s a net negative every minute he’s on the court.

      I don’t recall Bargs being any sort of bad influence regarding team chemistry.

      Point I was trying to make is that as outsiders we don’t know much of anything about team chemistry. Even if you’re an insider it’s a pretty intangible concept. As outsiders, we barely see or hear anything that’s going on.

      It can be lower than 0,01%. Just throw a dice with six names under 24 and hire the lucky one. Bargs is a known product. A bad one. If you have even a small chance of getting some value paying close to the minimum, why not? Because he’s not gonna give anything.

      I don’t think this is true. While Bargnani, for example, is a bad NBA player, he may still be a better NBA player than the random guys that you are bringing in. If your chances of finding a good one were literally 0.01%, then something close to 99.9% of the time you might be putting your team in a worse position. Not only for the few minutes a game that you’d be expecting to play Bargnani, but also if someone goes down due to injury or just doesn’t play up to expectations and you need that end-of-the-bench guy to step in.

      Now, obviously the real odds aren’t 0.01%. My point is that there is a trade-off and there is not nothing but upside to cycling through random D-League players to see if they happen to be good. At some point it’s better to have a guy you know isn’t terrible than keep rolling the dice on guys who probably are terrible. (Whether the non-terrible guy is Bargnani or some other bad but not terrible vet of your choosing.)

      So, again, I think we need to know roughly the distribution of outcomes from random in-season young guy pick ups to intelligently discuss this.

    12. Bargs is a known product. A bad one. If you have even a small chance of getting some value paying close to the minimum, why not? Because he’s not gonna give anything.

      I think it’s far more likely we find the next Langston Galloway at the minimum than Bargs giving us anything worthwhile. As it is our roster looks like this–

      C: Lopez
      Forwards: O’Quinn, Carmelo, Derrick Williams, Porzingis, Early
      Guards: Afflalo, Calderon, Grant, Galloway

      That’s 10 roster spots committed, 5 left.
      Figure Ledo gets one of them since he has some guaranteed money.

      4 left — one goes to room exception guy. Out of the other 3, there’ll probably be a scrum for those spots: Thanasis, Shved, Lance Thomas, Amundson, Wear, and maybe one or two of the summer league guys will be fighting for those spots. NO ROOM FOR BARGNANI.

      I’ll root for Amundson (backup C), Thanasis, and Shved, although I guess it’s possible Shved gets the room exception opening one other spot.

    13. At the end of the season I thought there was a chance Bargs would come back for the minimum or a bit more because he was tall and a fit for the triangle. But now I just don’t think its going to happen.

      Every player on this team is someone new from after Phil Jackson joined the Knicks. Heck even Melo Jackson resigned. He even traded away Hardaway! I don’t think Phil wants anyone around from before his regime. And I think that is a good thing. So while Bargs for the minimum could be useful (although I agree that I think he is a waste for us) I don’t think Phil is going to bring him back. I think even Cole might not get to return. This is a new era.

    14. I think it’s far more likely we find the next Langston Galloway at the minimum than Bargs giving us anything worthwhile.

      The question is whether “the next Langston Galloway” will give you anything more worthwhile than “the next Bargnani” or Bargnani himself. As much as Knicks fans love him, Galloway was pretty bad for the Knicks last season. As much as Knicks fans hate him, a healthy Bargnani is not completely and totally useless on a basketball court. (Not that I think he’s good, just that we’re talking about one of the last guys on the bench to fill out the roster.)

      So, again, in principle the question is what the distribution of returns from D-League mid-season free agents looks like vs. the distribution of returns from scrubby NBA vets.

      I also don’t really see the either/or nature of this issue. If you don’t see anyone better than Bargnani out there at the moment, you can always open the season with him and then cut him if/when you see someone better. (If you do see someone better than Bargnani out there, then you just sign that guy now instead of Bargnani and there is no conversation to be had.)

    15. @16
      Frank, I’m rooting for Amundson, Thanasis, and Wear. I think/guess that they’ll add another C. I’m pulling for Amundson, but the Knicks need someone else a bit bigger. Cole, or does his woeful conditioning leave him out?

      Shved and Thomas have a decent chance b/c they have experience in the system last year.

    16. My point is that there is a trade-off and there is not nothing but upside to cycling through random D-League players to see if they happen to be good

      This is why you don’t cycle through random D-league players. You would, in theory, be cycling through players doing well in the D-league, and you would have a really, really, really good chance of finding someone better than Bargnani, because he’s proven to be one of the worst players in the NBA.

    17. I mean, what the fuck does Bargs have to do? Who else combines his extensive track record of awful production with an inability to stay healthy and now a total lack of upside? He’s more or less the worst player in the NBA and there are still people saying “Hey, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to bring back the worst player in the NBA again”. Yes. Yes it would be a bad idea.

    18. Team chemistry may be inscrutable, but effort and situational awareness are publicly observable. Bargnani has scoffed at the suggestion that he try harder to rebound. His unwillingness to bang inside and cluelessness on D are viusally obvious. Its a rebuild. If you want a professional culture typified by intense effort and high situational awareness, IMO it makes good sense to prioritize those things over minor marginal differences in performance as measured strictly by numbers.

    19. The question is whether “the next Langston Galloway” will give you anything more worthwhile than “the next Bargnani” or Bargnani himself. As much as Knicks fans love him, Galloway was pretty bad for the Knicks last season. As much as Knicks fans hate him, a healthy Bargnani is not completely and totally useless on a basketball court. (Not that I think he’s good, just that we’re talking about one of the last guys on the bench to fill out the roster.)

      Langston Galloway WP/48 last year: .094
      Andrea Bargnani WP/48 last year: -.053 (still better than his career average!)

      Who are we kidding? Bargnani is a disaster, while Galloway was a positive contributor. But look, I’d be happy even finding the next Jerome Jordan, or even the next James White, or even the next Tyrion Lannister. Bargs is a finished product who doesn’t know what to do on a basketball court. In a league that keeps finding a place for Kendrick Perkins he can still toil away as a 12th man on a stacked roster, but on a rebuilding team he makes zero sense.

    20. This is why you don’t cycle through random D-league players. You would, in theory, be cycling through players doing well in the D-league, and you would have a really, really, really good chance of finding someone better than Bargnani, because he’s proven to be one of the worst players in the NBA.

      I have asked like 10 times now what the chances are of finding someone better than Bargnani (or any other bad NBA vet who has at least some useful skill) from the D-League. Not one person has responded to that, besides the one who said the chances may be one basis point and you saying they are “really, really, really good.” Neither of which is a real answer. Basically, people are saying “I don’t know what the right answer is, but I know my answer is right.”

      He’s more or less the worst player in the NBA

      Based on what? People keep saying things like this, but not offering any evidence. I guess that’s the way things are around here now. Same thing happened with Derrick Williams discussions. (“He’s the worst player ever.” “Based on what evidence?” “Well… we all just know he’s terrible… and we all know that these other guys who aren’t particularly good either are better…”)

      there are still people saying “Hey, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to bring back the worst player in the NBA again”

      I don’t know if anyone has really said that. I think maybe two or three people have asked whether it would be a good or bad idea. And then a bunch of people have just dismissed it out of hand rather than engage in a real discussion of whether or not it would be a bad idea.

    21. Figure Ledo gets one of them since he has some guaranteed money.

      That’s interesting. I didn’t know Ledo had some guaranteed money coming his way. Just minimum or more?

    22. Langston Galloway WP/48 last year: .094
      Andrea Bargnani WP/48 last year: -.053 (still better than his career average!)

      WP/48 is one metric with a really biased (and probably not mathematically sound) basis. WS/48 and PER are other imperfect (and probably more widely accepted) metrics that favor Bargnani.

      If you want a professional culture typified by intense effort and high situational awareness, IMO it makes good sense to prioritize those things over minor marginal differences in performance as measured strictly by numbers.

      I don’t necessarily disagree with your point, but I might call wanting a player like Bargnani to bang inside low situational awareness. I think his only real value as an NBA player may be his shooting ability.

    23. Colonel Bargsup: Son, we live in a world that has floors, and those floors have to be spaced by men with mid-range jump shots. Who’s gonna do it? You? You, Langston Galloway? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom.

    24. I have asked like 10 times now what the chances are of finding someone better than Bargnani (or any other bad NBA vet who has at least some useful skill) from the D-League. Not one person has responded to that, besides the one who said the chances may be one basis point and you saying they are “really, really, really good.” Neither of which is a real answer. Basically, people are saying “I don’t know what the right answer is, but I know my answer is right.”

      Look Ted, I’ll answer that for you:

      Basketball Reference says that, using last year data, there were 16 D-League material rookies who posted a better WS/48 than Bargs (yeah, 3 of them only played 5 games or less, so let’s make it 13). There were 71 rookies last year who played more that 5 games, would we say that only 20 of them were surefire NBA contributors and would never have played a single D-League minute whatever happened? That leaves us with a 13/51 chance, which is roughly a 25% probability to find a better player than Bargs. And that’s using WS/48.

      Let’s not talk about PER in evaluating the full contribution of a player, though, we’re in 2015.

    25. Ted,

      Bargnani is a bad basketball player, right? There are 15.000 minutes of evidence of this.

      You can use WP, WS, TS%, AST%, REB% and some intangibles like defense that is well known to be huge minus to him.

      Besides, he’s 29yo, so any upside is probably long gone.

      You want a exact %? No one can give you that. It’s impossible for us in this blog to quantify.

      However, every year the Knicks found players from the D-League, Europe or just minimum wage guys that turn out to be decent or useful players. Galloway, Prigioni, Copeland, Lin, Novak, Mozgov, etc.

      None of this guys are exactly setting the world on fire, but are legit NBA players despite their evident flaws.

      Some didn’t turn out well like Solomon Jones, Jerome Jordan or James White.

      But since we are talking about odds, there is a good chance that, if you roll the dice enough, more likely than not you will find value.

      So yes, is Ok to presume that the odds are very good that if you throw 3 players that performed well in the D-league in the squad, one of them will probably outperform Bargnani. Those 3 players will cost more or less the price of having Bargani on the bench.

    26. This Post headline might be my favorite of the year:

      “Knicks run out of money to keep Jason Smith”

      Damn you Knicks and your stupid financial management!

    27. ” Galloway was pretty bad for the Knicks last season.”
      By most statistical measures, traditional and advanced, Galloway was better last year than Shumpert (even if you only include Shumpert’s time with the Cavs) and Shumpert just got $10 million/year. I’m not saying Galloway is a great player, but he’s at least decent, and better than “pretty bad.”

    28. Oh, and this might be the right moment to remember that Greg Monroe got torched by Bargs.

      I think the RoLo signing is a real blessing in disguise (good player by himself, but I think he’s a vastly better contributor than Monroe to a functional NBA team).

    29. You want a exact %? No one can give you that. It’s impossible for us in this blog to quantify.

      Hey boy, don’t be so dismissive of my work :-(

    30. I might call wanting a player like Bargnani to bang inside low situational awareness. I think his only real value as an NBA player may be his shooting ability.

      I know this will seem obvious Ted, but I’m really not baiting you. I’m just confused by your suggestion. He is a 7 foot tall center. His opposite will almost always play down low and get a lot of rebounds. In what way is it not important and appropriate to expect him to compete with consistent intense effort against his man? Should he not be expected to try because he’s not good at it? Should we ignore the obvious correlation between trying hard and being good at it?

    31. This Post headline might be my favorite of the year:

      “Knicks run out of money to keep Jason Smith”

      Damn you Knicks and your stupid financial management!

      In other news, I ran out of gas to drive off a cliff.

    32. Basketball Reference says that, using last year data, there were 16 D-League material rookies who posted a better WS/48 than Bargs (yeah, 3 of them only played 5 games or less, so let’s make it 13).

      D-League free agents? Or rookies who played in the D-League?

      Let’s not talk about PER in evaluating the full contribution of a player, though, we’re in 2015.

      Let’s talk about WP/48 instead?

    33. I know this will seem obvious Ted, but I’m really not baiting you. I’m just confused by your suggestion. He is a 7 foot tall center. His opposite will almost always play down low and get a lot of rebounds. In what way is it not important and appropriate to expect him to compete with consistent intense effort against his man? Should he not be expected to try because he’s not good at it? Should we ignore the obvious correlation between trying hard and being good at it?

      Actually, if his man just banged down low, Bargs would be a good player. He’s an atrocious team defender, but can hold the fort in the post and the nearer he is to the rim, the more he collects rebounds. He’s just incapable of understand where he should be when the other team tries anything that isn’t an ISO-low post, and when he’s not in perfect position he doesn’t even try to go for the board.

    34. Every player on this team is someone new from after Phil Jackson joined the Knicks.

      This is why I don’t think there is any chance that we keep Bargs. No hustle, no bball IQ, no upside. His stats are terrible and he has been injured.

    35. Bargnani is a bad basketball player, right? There are 15.000 minutes of evidence of this.

      This is not a matter we’re discussing. The matter we are discussing is whether he (or some other generic, bad NBA vet who has at least managed to hang around the league) is likely to be worse than some generic NBA D-League-type of FA available mid-season.

      You want a exact %? No one can give you that. It’s impossible for us in this blog to quantify.

      No, it’s extremely possible for anyone with a computer, an internet connection, and a middle school education to do. I want a rough distribution of how likely a D-League free agent picked up mid-season is to be better than Bargnani.

      It will take a bit of time to do. But if you don’t want to take the time, then don’t act like you already know the results.

      However, every year the Knicks found players from the D-League, Europe or just minimum wage guys that turn out to be decent or useful players. Galloway, Prigioni, Copeland, Lin, Novak, Mozgov, etc.

      Again, the matter we are discussing is in-season free agent pick ups. Most of those guys were not that.

      But since we are talking about odds, there is a good chance that, if you roll the dice enough, more likely than not you will find value.

      So yes, is Ok to presume that the odds are very good that if you throw 3 players that performed well in the D-league in the squad, one of them will probably outperform Bargnani. Those 3 players will cost more or less the price of having Bargani on the bench.

      Based on what evidence? Just saying something is true (and giving random examples that have nothing to do with the matter at hand) does not make it true.

    36. Frank, I’m not sure the rest of our bench will come from the summer league team or from players who already played for the Knicks last season. . We clearly need more than four guards on the team. I think Shved is a very likely signing because Knick’s management admitted he was a project with long term potential when they drafted him and he showed that potential during the season. I can see signing Ledo because of the guaranteed money; but if he does badly in summer League, the Knicks might give that up and look for a free agent of some sort. Even if they sign him and Shved, their guard line up is Afflalo, Calderon, Grant, Galloway, Shved and Ledo. That’s not that strong a line up unless Grant does very well, so they might be looking elsewhere for some sort of quality backup to Calderon and Afflalo besides Galloway. The other two guards in summer league, Bray and Baron are probably long shots at best.

    37. D-League free agents? Or rookies who played in the D-League?

      Rookies who played in the D-League. Too vast a number? Let’s restrict it a bit. Make it 7 D-League free agents. The same criteria, though brings the rookies’ pool to 22. Which makes the probabilily go higher (32%).

      Let’s talk about WP/48 instead?

      Well, don’t get me started on FWP/48 or Jowles’ head might explode. But seriously, PER is a good way to measure offensive production but is a deeply flawed stat. WP/48 is not the be all end all, but does a pretty good job at identifying the best contributors on a team.

    38. Based on what? People keep saying things like this, but not offering any evidence. I guess that’s the way things are around here now. Same thing happened with Derrick Williams discussions. (“He’s the worst player ever.” “Based on what evidence?” “Well… we all just know he’s terrible… and we all know that these other guys who aren’t particularly good either are better…”)

      It seems that you are not enjoying yourself on this website. Might I suggest you leave for a few years and come back with a calmer, gentler demeanor.

    39. ” Galloway was pretty bad for the Knicks last season.”
      By most statistical measures, traditional and advanced, Galloway was better last year than Shumpert (even if you only include Shumpert’s time with the Cavs) and Shumpert just got $10 million/year. I’m not saying Galloway is a great player, but he’s at least decent, and better than “pretty bad.”

      Which statistical measures? WS/48 and VORP both have him as worse. PER has him as marginally better.

      He is a 7 foot tall center. His opposite will almost always play down low and get a lot of rebounds. In what way is it not important and appropriate to expect him to compete with consistent intense effort against his man? Should he not be expected to try because he’s not good at it? Should we ignore the obvious correlation between trying hard and being good at it?

      I’m not saying that he shouldn’t try on defense when his assignment is inside. I’m just saying that I think his value is as more of a stretch-bigman and not as the centerpiece inside player on either side of the ball. That he’s probably best used as a limited role player (which would be the plan as a vet min, end of the bench guy).

      I also don’t really think you can tell much about team chemistry from how a guy deals with the media. Especially someone from a different cultural background. And that’s the very issue I brought up originally: as fans our only window into team chemistry is basically the media.

    40. This is not a matter we’re discussing. The matter we are discussing is whether he (or some other generic, bad NBA vet who has at least managed to hang around the league) is likely to be worse than some generic NBA D-League-type of FA available mid-season.

      Let’s take the average of the two best metrics we have available, which are ridge regressed adjusted plus minus and VORP. Last year, Bargs had an RAPM of -3.6 and a VORP of -0.3. These are completely in line with his performance over the last 5 years. They are both *below* replacement level. Replacement level means, “some generic NBA D-League-type of FA available mid-season.” Depending on which metric you use of the two, Bargnani was roughly 400th in the NBA last year, 420th on average over the last 3 years, and 390th over the last five years. This is replacement level. It doesn’t matter what the odds are of hitting the lottery if you are getting your ticket in exchange for an equally worthless piece of paper with no lottery numbers on it.

    41. I’d say Bargs is a good guy, chemistry wise. To be in the NBA for 8 years and never show up with a single malcontent should count for something. Problem is, he’s probably a bad example, what with his 60 million bucks earned and zero effort shown.

    42. Rookies who played in the D-League. Too vast a number? Let’s restrict it a bit. Make it 7 D-League free agents. The same criteria, though brings the rookies’ pool to 22. Which makes the probabilily go higher (32%).

      Thanks. That’s the kind of analysis I was looking for. It’s not a totally in-depth analysis, but just at least some evidence to guide the discussion rather than “Bargs is the worstz, signz all da D-Leaguerz.” (I don’t particularly care for Bargnani and would probably prefer a D-Leaguer as well… I was just questioning the pervasiveness of this “any scrub would be better” attitude about a bunch of different Knicks players.)

      Well, don’t get me started on FWP/48 or Jowles’ head might explode. But seriously, PER is a good way to measure offensive production but is a deeply flawed stat. WP/48 is not the be all end all, but does a pretty good job at identifying the best contributors on a team.

      I don’t have a strong opinion… I find them both fairly flawed but also generally correlated with overall contribution to a team. You’ll get some overvalued inefficient scorers with PER but you’ll get some overvalued rebounders with WP.

    43. Holy shit if DeAndre changes his mind and stay with the Clips that will be fun to watch. Imagine the dominos. Wes Matthews reverts to the Kings? Rondo for Greek finance minister?

    44. Rondo for Greek financial minister?

      “Angela Merkel accepts all of Greece requests after being humiliated in a Connect Four showdown”

    45. Has anything like that happened before, at least on this scale? I know people were saying that there was no way the Kings would rescind the awful 76ers trade, even though it wasn’t official until the moratorium ended, because it would prevent any other team from dealing with them. The blowback on an individual player wouldn’t be as bad, particularly if DJ now decides to be a Clipper for life, but his agent would surely have to deal with some consequences for other clients.

    46. Bargs doesn’t just suck, he is also CONSTANTLY HURT. So even if Bargs is marginally better than this proposed “random D-Leaguer,” the random D-Leaguer is going to end up playing for you anyway, because Bargs will end up injured.

      Here’s an idea: how about signing a warm body with a pulse who can actually go out on the floor and play without blowing out his elbow the first time he lifts his arm above his head?

    47. ptmilo,

      That’s the kind of analysis I was looking for. At the same time, how did you decide that VORP and RAPM are the best metrics available? And, with taller people more scarce, can you find a guy to fill in at C as easily as other positions?

      (I don’t think that Bargnani is their best option. And at the end of the day I think the identity of the 15th man is probably going to make a very marginal difference. I’m just questioning the grass-is-always greener and what seems like almost unlimited opportunity cost line of thinking. I’ve seen a bunch of comments on here about how the Knicks should just keep roster spots open to see if they can find the next great D-League FA… but I have a feeling the odds of finding that guy mid-season are pretty remote. Bargnani is probably not the guy, but you might be better off with a proven below-average guy than cycling through unproven guys. I do think this is the case with someone like Derrick Williams, for example, where there is proof he can do something in the NBA and he still has some upside. I’m not saying to fill every roster spot and never bring in 10-day contract guys or to always defer to the veteran. Just that there’s a trade-off that I think is being under-appreciated by fans that I think are over-estimating the odds of striking gold. Also, there is a distribution around signing a replacement player. The actual guy you sign is not just automatically replacement level… so if you’re risk averse or the known replacement level guy fits a role, there may be an advantage to the known replacement guy over the theoretical construct of being able to pluck a replacement guy from the D-League.)

    48. Lol at Doc saying “Hey DJ, we didn’t know you wanted a bigger role and more touches”. You’re both the coach and the GM!

    49. There is also an emotional component to wanting Bargnani gone. It might not be his fault, but he is a seven-foot tall living, breathing (through his mouth) reminder of the time we gave away what is certain to be a lottery pick because some asshat actually thought we would be closer to a championship by having Andrea Bargnani put on a uniform and try to play basketball.

      He’s bad vibes. Thanks for all the GIFs, Bargs, but really, it’s time to move on. My eyeballs can’t deal anymore.

    50. If you ever found yourself wondering before whether Ted Nelson would argue with literally anything, wonder no more.

      As for the DeAndre scenario, I don’t think there would be that much general blowback honestly if he changed his mind. Maybe the Mavs would be less trustful of Dan Fegan’s clients in the future (with whom Cuban supposedly has(had?) a great relationship), but ultimately I can’t see that many ripple effects from it. Maybe some of his lesser clients would be harmed if teams were unwilling to sign them in the moratorium, but I can’t see it being a significant deal.

      The real impact would be on DAJ’s personal reputation, which would surely take a hit. And supposedly he’s already quite sensitive about his reputation as a bit of a headcase, so I doubt he’d be that enthusiastic about that. I would be shocked if he reversed his decision, but it’s hard to blame the Clippers for taking one last swing. It makes them look pretty desperate, but they are desperate, and everyone who’s paying attention knew that already.

    51. Has anything like that happened before, at least on this scale?

      Not necessarily this scale, but Hedo Turkoglu agreed to a five year/$55 million contract with Portland on July 3, 2009 and then changed his mind and signed with the Raptors for roughly the same money the next day.

    52. is there any precedent in sports of a player or team going back on a verbal agreement? i can’t seem to think of any…

    53. Crazy as it is, DJ to the Clips makes the most basketball sense. That Dallas team isn’t going to challenge in the west. But if he goes back, they’ve already added Pierce. Watching the Clips, Spurs, Dubs and Thunder duke it out would be unreal.

    54. Brian, did the Hedo thing happen late enough in the process that there was no one left for Portland to spend their cap space on? That would be the roughest part of this for Dallas. Hell, at one point they were being discussed as a Hibbert landing spot if the DeAndre talks fell through. Now there’s nothing.

    55. I’ve been reading the Bargnani discussion and, at the risk of extending, have to complain that posters are suggesting that “a replacement level player” is the same as some D-league call up. That just isn’t the case. Most D-leaguers are worse than any NBA player who gets playing time and the good d league players who do get called update usually end up at the end of the NBA bench. But a “replacement” level player has the skills of a typical NBA player who gets significant playing time but isn’t a star. That “replacement level” player probably has stats that are worse than the average NBA because that average includes a lot of starters. But he’s still much better than a d-leaguer

    56. Brian, did the Hedo thing happen late enough in the process that there was no one left for Portland to spend their cap space on? That would be the roughest part of this for Dallas. Hell, at one point they were being discussed as a Hibbert landing spot if the DeAndre talks fell through. Now there’s nothing.

      Yeah, pretty much. I think they ended up signing Andre Miller, but they were looking for a small forward. They also did renounce a couple of guys to make room for Hedo (but no one important).

    57. is there any precedent in sports of a player or team going back on a verbal agreement? i can’t seem to think of any…

      Besides Hedo, the most famous example is also the most underhanded, which was Carlos Boozer tricking the Cavaliers into letting him become a free agent on the promise that he’d sign a multi-year MLE deal. He then signed a big money deal with Utah. That was before the Gilbert Arenas Rule came into effect. Nowadays, the Cavs would have been able to give Boozer more than the MLE with a backloaded contract.

    58. I’ve been reading the Bargnani discussion and, at the risk of extending, have to complain that posters are suggesting that “a replacement level player” is the same as some D-league call up. That just isn’t the case. Most D-leaguers are worse than any NBA player who gets playing time and the good d league players who do get called update usually end up at the end of the NBA bench. But a “replacement” level player has the skills of a typical NBA player who gets significant playing time but isn’t a star. That “replacement level” player probably has stats that are worse than the average NBA because that average includes a lot of starters. But he’s still much better than a d-leaguer

      It’s actually you who’s using the term incorrectly. “Replacement level” is a concept that started out in baseball analysis that refers to the talent level of a player who’s freely available at any time (i.e. costs nothing to acquire). This term is a little malleable, but essentially what it means is the talent level of a player making the minimum that can be picked up off the scrap heap at any time – in essence a D-leaguer. Average players (which seem to be what you’re talking about) are far above replacement level. See here for more info: Link

    59. Fun listening to the 538 podcast and hearing them knock the shit out of that Afflalo signing and the Knicks FO in general. As Neil Paine points out, Afflalo by RPM has been below replacement level for all 8 years of his career. And that’s who we just gave $16M too.

      That’s just Knicks!

    60. At the same time, how did you decide that VORP and RAPM are the best metrics available?

      The competition is easy since PER is a kid-with-scratch pad kind of metric-for-dummies with obvious flaws, while WP is very close to snake oil, or maybe snake oil with a dash of ibuprofen since it’s still better than, say, points per game and doe eyes. VORP and RAPM are internally consistent, the coefficients are honestly produced, their adjustments are not ex-post and ad hoc (e.g. the WP rebounding adjustment), and they don’t just shit the bed entirely on defense. In every reasonable attempt to test out of sample I have seen, they have beaten WP, though of course these tests are inherently imperfect. They also are aren’t peddled disingenuously in a way that exploits ignorance about multivariate regressions and misleads people into thinking that simplified metrics based on team-level regressions and convenient ex-post fudges can explain everything there is to explain about player productivity.

      And, with taller people more scarce, can you find a guy to fill in at C as easily as other positions?

      The intention is to capture scarcity (and not capriciously as in the very crude positional adjustments of WP). These are not mere position-agnostic boxscore metrics. They use statistical techniques to attempt to unearth the winning-relevant information in boxscore stats, including positional scarcity, and to regularize the information available in on-off court performance. There is no guarantee that any metric fully captures any aspect of player value, including scarcity. Although the bonus scarcity value of having a soft 7 footer who sucks at defense is probably not something that should keep anyone up at night in the first place.

    61. I don’t know the technicalities 0f baseball analysis. As a fan, if we hire someone, I want him capable enough that the player can do something when put in to the lineup. I think that the NBA is not like baseball. In baseball, a player at the triple A level can step into a position on a major league team and field his position and hit below average but still get hits. The team will function, but be a little worse. Bargnani can do that if he steps in; but I don’t think most D-Leaguers can do that. In fact, most draft choices can’t, if you include the second round where very few of them play meaningful minutes. The Knicks ended up with Felton and Duhon as point guards for several years because you can’t just go out and get a replacement level player. They had to pay for getting them too. Getting Prigioni as a backup was a spectacular job by the Knicks scouting and management team. It took a lot of work. I agree with Ted, there’s a lot of opportunity cost to trying to find those players. If you have someone who’s a reasonable bench player you may choose to put your talent acquisition resources elsewhere.

    62. i totally forgot about boozer! that was crazy manipulative and underhanded… i think jordan is just confused tho… what a soap opera…

    63. There is also an emotional component to wanting Bargnani gone.

      This is part of what I was trying to say. And while there’s not necessarily a production level justification in this specific case, if Bargs actually is better than the alternative then I don’t really think fan emotions over who the last guy on the bench is should be much of a factor. If the team started winning, I think the fan emotions would change.

      If you ever found yourself wondering before whether Ted Nelson would argue with literally anything, wonder no more.

      I don’t think this is just anything. This week I have seen a ton of arguments about “opportunity cost” that don’t really bother analyzing what the opportunity cost of a decision really is.

      Maybe the Mavs would be less trustful of Dan Fegan’s clients in the future

      I sort of doubt it since the agent is merely an advisor. The media/fans sometimes present powerful agents as if they’re driving the ship, but ultimately it’s the player’s decision. You never know what someone like Mark Cuban will do, but chances are Fegan will let him know that this was not something he advised his client to do and it will just blow over.

      The real impact would be on DAJ’s personal reputation, which would surely take a hit.

      Not sure if many people will even remember a year from now. Cuban’s celebrity could potentially allow him to make a bigger deal out this if he feels like it… But otherwise, no one on here seems to remember anyone else who has done this even though it’s happened.

    64. This Deandre Jordan stuff is ridiculous.
      If Deandre reneges, then does Wes Matthews renege too? He thought he was joining a contender. Does Dallas renege on Matthews? Why would they take a $15MM gamble on an achilles rehab if they don’t have DJ in place? Does Wes go back to Sacramento and then do they pull the plug on Bellineli and Rondo?

      It’s completely ridiculous.

    65. I sort of doubt it since the agent is merely an advisor. The media/fans sometimes present powerful agents as if they’re driving the ship, but ultimately it’s the player’s decision. You never know what someone like Mark Cuban will do, but chances are Fegan will let him know that this was not something he advised his client to do and it will just blow over.

      I think most of the blowback will be to the Clippers. Sounds like the unwritten rule is that once a player has committed to a team, you don’t keep calling them asking them to change their mind. This whole moratorium is just sort of dumb. I get that it allows players and teams more time to make decisions, but the NBA was just asking for a situation like this.

    66. The only thing that would be better than this latest DeAndre-gate would be if Lebron waited until Gilbert re-upped Tristan Thompson right into the luxury tax and then signed for the room exception with the Timberwolves.

    67. A few things before I go back to hiding with my zinger’15 sign.

      1. No one was defending Bargs. I think we’re all in agreement no one here wants him back if there’s better options obtainable.

      2. it seems like for a blog that puts a lot of emphasis on concrete numbers and stats, there’s been a lot of radarada bitching and moaning this past week about things based on the smell test.

      3. Human nature extends beyond numbers. If everything worked out as it should on paper, there’d be no point to follow sports. We could just sim the season on 2k15. That being said, I find it humorous that people are already on the ledge about this season saying how we’re gonna suck and be a 20 win team and so and so will be a waste of money and oh what’s the point if the best case scenario is being the 8th seed.

      Am I happy about the way things have gone the past season/off season? Nope, not all of it. But we won’t know how this team does until we see the group in action this weekend/preseason.

    68. Whatever infinitesimal edge in production Bargs might give you just isn’t worth it to me. This is a shitty team with or without Bargs. I could care less if we get an extra one tenth of a win because Bargs is on the roster instead of I dunno, Alex Kirk. Go ahead and change the culture and stop giving playing time to dumb-as-rocks, low-IQ players. Or better yet, bring back Cole instead, because he can actually do a couple of useful things out there.

    69. They also are aren’t peddled disingenuously in a way that exploits ignorance about multivariate regressions and misleads people into thinking that simplified metrics based on team-level regressions and convenient ex-post fudges can explain everything there is to explain about player productivity.

      That’s awesome. Not many people can pull off that long of a gramatically flawless sentence that doesn’t contain a comma or semicolon.

      Re: Bargs, he doesn’t do anything well; he’s not even that great of a shooter, considering his rep. That’s the main reason he shouldn’t be back. Sign somebody who has a specific skill set that the Knicks need, like rebounding or on ball defense.

    70. Zach Lowe scoring the Knicks in the loser column of Free Agency as well. Gotta love the return of over-paying for mediocrity no one else even wanted. It’s like Isiah never even left.

    71. ptmilo,

      Interesting stuff. What’s your take on WS?

      Although the bonus scarcity value of having a soft 7 footer who sucks at defense is probably not something that should keep anyone up at night in the first place.

      The idea is that if you grab a random 6-3, 6-5 guy there may be a better chance that he turns out to be what you expected than a random bigman (7 foot or not) because the population is so much larger (not actually “random,” but rather select whoever happens to be the best candidate in the D-League at that time). That there might be more value in certainty with bigmen than wings and guards. (Just a theory.) That’s not just about defensive contribution, but overall contribution.

      KnickfaninNJ,

      The idea of a “replacement level player” is mostly to set a baseline against which to compare everyone. It makes some sense, because anyone above that is theoretically a net positive (without considering $) over picking someone up off the scrapheap and anyone below that a net negative. You could just as easily measure players against “All-Star level” or “starter level” instead of replacement, but the resulting metric might not be as intuitive (and it’s just not how history unfolded). It’s a theoretical thing. Not every player you pick up off the scrapheap is going to be exactly replacement level.

      I don’t think basketball is much different from the way you described baseball. Any D-Leaguer who can defend his position can also occasionally knock down a shot… Any single player can have more influence in basketball than baseball, all else equal, with only 5 guys on the court at a time (plus a rotation), but like in baseball a good team can hide one bad player.

    72. The only thing that would be better than this latest DeAndre-gate would be if Lebron waited until Gilbert re-upped Tristan Thompson right into the luxury tax and then signed for the room exception with the Timberwolves.

      And made them trade for Johnson as well. That would be one of greatest trolls ever if LeBron pulled that off. Though he’d probably sign with the Clippers in this scenario.

    73. Wait, DeAndre may not want to play for the Mavs? They have the nicest locker rooms in the NBA, and he gets the added bonus of an owner who runs on the court and celebrates with players like he made the game winning shot.

    74. Zach Lowe scoring the Knicks in the loser column of Free Agency as well. Gotta love the return of over-paying for mediocrity no one else even wanted. It’s like Isiah never even left.

      Did you really just compare what Phil Jackson did to Isiah? Lol.

      C: Lopez
      Forwards: O’Quinn, Carmelo, Derrick Williams, Porzingis, Early
      Guards: Afflalo, Calderon, Grant, Galloway

      KOQ is more of a center than a PF though he can give some minutes at the 4. Athletically and with a better touch around the rim he factors in much better at the 5 and that’s where I expect the Knicks to use him more.

    75. They also are aren’t peddled disingenuously in a way that exploits ignorance about multivariate regressions and misleads people into thinking that simplified metrics based on team-level regressions and convenient ex-post fudges can explain everything there is to explain about player productivity.

      I think it bears repeating, for I dunno, the 100th time, that nobody here claims that Wins Produced can explain everything there is to explain about player productivity. pt certainly sounds like he knows much more about what he’s talking about than I do, but when someone can’t stop making fundamentally dishonest arguments it does give me pause.

      All I really know is that Bargs sucks, and there is no point in having one of the worst players in the NBA on your roster when you’re a team as bad as the Knicks. Maybe if you had a lot of elite young talent you could stick a respected vet on the end of the bench to set an example on how to carry yourself like a professional. But what’s the point of having a Bargs?

    76. We’re basically arguing the merits of keeping a shitty Bargs who is a proven commodity of shit at the NBA level versus taking a flyer on a D-League guy that is likely to be just as shitty, but may not be and is probably younger. I will take the unknown likely shit level player over the proven shit level player.

    77. Wait, DeAndre may not want to play for the Mavs? They have the nicest locker rooms in the NBA, and he gets the added bonus of an owner who runs on the court and celebrates with players like he made the game winning shot.

      They also have Chandler Parsons, who is apparently the coolest guy in the entire NBA. DeAndre Jordan specifically cited Parsons as being one of the reasons he wants to sign with Dallas.

    78. O’Quinn is going to be the backup center, right? That’s what I was presuming. Is that in doubt?

    79. At some point the NBA has to realize that opening FA when they haven’t even finalized the cap is no way to carry on business like gentlemen, right?

    80. I think it bears repeating, for I dunno, the 100th time, that nobody here claims that Wins Produced can explain everything there is to explain about player productivity. pt certainly sounds like he knows much more about what he’s talking about than I do, but when someone can’t stop making fundamentally dishonest arguments it does give me pause..

      Who said anything about anyone here? I’m talking about Berri.

    81. At some point the NBA has to realize that opening FA when they haven’t even finalized the cap is no way to carry on business like gentlemen, right?

      I have absolutely no idea why the auditing for the league can’t take place the week before free agency begins.

    82. I have absolutely no idea why the auditing for the league can’t take place the week before free agency begins.

      Because Knicks? That’s how this goes usually I think.

    83. I understand what you mean about replacement player, but still think basketball and baseball are very different. If an NBA team puts in a player who can’t defend well enough, the opposing team will figure that out and runs plays against him all game. The opposing team will almost certainly come out ahead when that player is on the floor. If a triple A baseball player is put into the line up the hitters can’t hit it at him all the time and anyway his fielding percentage will probably only be a little worse on the ones hit to him anyway. You said

      Any D-Leaguer who can defend his position can also occasionally knock down a shot…

      I think that’s not so common in D-League and would take work to find and acquire. And, as you point out, if you want someone tall enough to guard a center, that’s harder. Also remember that many of the best players not playing in the NBA are playing in other China, Europe or other leagues where they are under contract so there is probably a bigger talent gap between NBA and D-league than between MLB and AAA.

    84. Or, if they truly can only do the auditing during the first week of July, then why not just start free agency a week later?

    85. Or, if they truly can only do the auditing during the first week of July, then why not just start free agency a week later?

      Can’t they just copy whatever the NHL does since as soon as free agency starts you can sign contracts?

    86. The main issue seems to be that they honestly don’t know what the cap is until tomorrow, so players technically can’t sign certain deals because a lot of the deals are based on percentages of the cap. So the issue is the audit of the cap. I understand that it can’t happen until after the NBA Finals and I guess they’re too busy with the Draft after that, so fair enough, maybe this really is the earliest it can get done. Fair enough. But then just push back free agency until after it is finished, and then let players sign deals as soon as free agency is open.

    87. I’ve seen it mentioned a couple of times that Andrea Bargnani gets a bump in value for being 7′ tall. It seems to me that being 7′ tall only seems to affect his tailor. He’s not a good defender, shot blocker, or rebounder. Josh Harrellson can shoot a 3, rebound, and at least stand his ground. He’s not even in the NBA anymore. Bargs draws some ire for being a former #1 who isn’t a stud (or even good) and for having made a ton of money while missing a ton of games. But I think the idea that he may not even be as good as some guys just floating around Europe and the d-league is fairly valid. I would think European vets would also be a consideration against d-leaguers such a Prigioni. Not everyone on the bench can be a 22 year old project.

    88. The truth is, it costs too much for the logistics involved to swap free agent period with audit period. Think of all the emails that need to be sent out, calendars that need to be reprinted, hours of shark week tv that will be missed.

    89. I’ve seen it mentioned a couple of times that Andrea Bargnani gets a bump in value for being 7? tall. It seems to me that being 7? tall only seems to affect his tailor.

      I’ve made this analogy before: you could, if you wanted to, play Prince Fielder at shortstop. And he might be a very good shortstop for a big fat guy– in fact, he could be the best fatass 285 pound shortstop in the world. But he’s still gonna be a shitty shortstop.

    90. We’re basically arguing the merits of keeping a shitty Bargs who is a proven commodity of shit at the NBA level versus taking a flyer on a D-League guy that is likely to be just as shitty, but may not be and is probably younger. I will take the unknown likely shit level player over the proven shit level player.

      The point is that not all shitty players are equally shitty. The question is how shitty the unknown guy is likely to be vs. how shitty the known guy is likely to be. We may arrive at the same answer, but I think we at least have to ask the question and do the analysis.

      It’s a marginal issue, but I just keep discussing it because the widely held view around here seems to be that the Knicks should be looking at getting young, “long-term assets” from the D-League as a somewhat key team building strategy. I’m all for doing a bit of that, I just don’t know if it’s always the answer.

      (Also, I would say that age only matters in so far as how it’s likely to impact your future play… so I think it’s redundant to consider age when we’re already considering future play.)

    91. If an NBA team puts in a player who can’t defend well enough, the opposing team will figure that out and runs plays against him all game. The opposing team will almost certainly come out ahead when that player is on the floor. If a triple A baseball player is put into the line up the hitters can’t hit it at him all the time and anyway his fielding percentage will probably only be a little worse on the ones hit to him anyway.

      I don’t know that defensive ability is the scarce skillset. I think that offensive ability is the scarce skillset. And a combination of both truly scarce.

      I also think the impact of what you’re talking about is more marginal than you’re making it out to be even in the case where the D-League guy is a poor defender. There are lots of poor defenders in the NBA (most of whom have probably never played a single D-League game). Some hurt their teams overall, but some do enough offensively to overcome their defensive weaknesses.

      I think that’s not so common in D-League and would take work to find and acquire.

      I don’t think it’s particularly common to find a good MLB player in AAA, either.

      there is probably a bigger talent gap between NBA and D-league than between MLB and AAA.

      I don’t know whether that’s accurate or not, but the gap between AAA/MLB is still huge and it seems based on the evidence provided in this thread that NBA teams find passable players from the D-League somewhat regularly.

      There’s also potentially a countervailing force in that there are like 60% as many guys playing in the NBA as MLB, so there may be more talent that doesn’t quite make the NBA cut.

    92. But then just push back free agency until after it is finished, and then let players sign deals as soon as free agency is open.

      I have no idea, but I would imagine that either the teams or players prefer this set up for some reason(s). Whether those are good or bad reasons, I doubt it’s that they just didn’t think of the possibility of having free agency start after the cap is announced.

      I’ve seen it mentioned a couple of times that Andrea Bargnani gets a bump in value for being 7? tall. It seems to me that being 7? tall only seems to affect his tailor. He’s not a good defender, shot blocker, or rebounder.

      I don’t think anyone is saying 7′ feet (one person said it in a negative comment). The idea is simply that bigmen are scarcer than Gs and wings. Bargnani aside, in a sense the bar might be lower for being the last bigman on an NBA bench than the last G/F.

      That doesn’t mean Bargnani passes the bar, it’s just that the bar is lower.

    93. Basta!

      Oh man, so much Bargnani talk. Jeebus. What a ridiculous argument to have. There is no rational argument for keeping Bargnani. There is no irrational argument either. The aesthetic considerations here completely overwhelm any conceivable advantage to keeping him (not that I think there could possibly be any advantage to rostering Bargs)

      We traded a first round pick for this loser. And for that reason alone I never want to see him in a Knicks uni again. He sucks he sucks he sucks. Get him out of here. Feed him to the lions. Let’s exile him to another solar system.

    94. We traded a first round pick for this loser. And for that reason alone I never want to see him in a Knicks uni again. He sucks he sucks he sucks. Get him out of here. Feed him to the lions. Let’s exile him to another solar system.

      Do you have any independent research to back up your claims?

    95. Oh man, so much Bargnani talk. Jeebus. What a ridiculous argument to have.

      Agreed. 75% of the comments about Bargnani vs. D-league player is just arguing for the sake of arguing. and honestly, who cares???

    96. I don’t know that defensive ability is the scarce skillset. I think that offensive ability is the scarce skillset. And a combination of both truly scarce.

      You could be right about this. But if a player can’t score at all that frees the defense to double team someone else, so the opposing can still adjust in a way that substantially improves their results.

      As for the talent gap between MLB and AAA, the AAA is clearly the next level below MLB. I don’t know how good those guys are, but in the NBA it’s not clear that the D-League is the level right below NBA because talented guys who don’t make the NBA can make a lot more money playing elsewhere. Since they are then under contract to someone else they are not available to NBA teams in an emergency, and they are not in the talent pool for replacing NBA players on short notice anymore. There are of course foreign baseball teams of course, but I don’t think young American prospects go there to make money. So that’s different from the NBA.. This make me think the NBA to D-League talent gap is bigger than the analogous baseball one. But I can’t say that for sure. I agree with you that both gaps are large.

      NBA teams find passable players from the D-League somewhat regularly.

      You’re impression is different than mine. NBA teams do find talent there sometimes, for example, we found Galloway. And the NBA seems to be making a conscious effort to make the D-league a better proving ground for NBA players. But before Galloway, the last guy from D-League to make an impact on the Knicks might have been John Starks. Otherwise they did better bringing NBA players out of retirement. Am I remembering wrong? Are there some more recent examples you can cite?

    97. Dr. Nelson’s Independent Research Verifier

      I see the internet has won again.

    98. Bargnani, IMO, is a bad player to have on a team and I think he suffers from something a lot of NBA players suffer from – he doesn’t have the drive to get better. He can play defense, but he won’t play defense. He can pass the ball, but he doesn’t. He can rebound, but he doesn’t bother. He’s worse than bad, he’s lazy.

      By the way, there are a ton of free agents out there that we could be signing…like Bargnani (not). Some are actually decent. How many teams have cap space and have the willingness to spend it? What’s going to happen to guys like JR, Cole and Stat? What about guys like Elton Brand and Carlos Boozer? Chris Copeland, Big Baby and Drew Gooden? Does Shawn Marion or Kendrick Perkins have anything left in the tank. And if we want a defensive pest, isn’t Hansbrough still out there?

    99. Basta!

      Agreed. 75% of the comments about Bargnani vs. D-league player is just arguing for the sake of arguing. and honestly, who cares???

      Perhaps the 75% I’m not writing, but I would not really call this an argument. I am not taking any position. I am asking people what evidence they have to support their positions.

      I would consider it (an attempt at) a group analysis of the situation. I also consider Bargnani to be just a symbol for a larger question of mediocre vet vs. D-Leaguer with promise. This isn’t really that much of a discussion about Bargnani himself.

    100. KnickfaninNJ,

      I think the biggest reason we’re talking past each other may be because I’m talking about picking up a D-Leaguer who isn’t terrible for the end of the bench (bumping everyone else a spot). Not sticking him into a prominent role.

      But if a player can’t score at all that frees the defense to double team someone else, so the opposing can still adjust in a way that substantially improves their results.

      Having a bad player on a baseball field also substantially improves the results of the other team. And again, the difference between the top D-League free agent and the guy on the end of your bench is marginal… you are not replacing LeBron with some total scrub. There are 8 guys in a rotation and 9 guys on a baseball field, so I don’t know if the results are that different.

      This make me think the NBA to D-League talent gap is bigger than the analogous baseball one. But I can’t say that for sure. I agree with you that both gaps are large.

      I understand your logic, but what I’m saying is that empirically I don’t know if this potential difference is actually there or all that big if it is there: most AAA players fail in MLB and a decent number of D-League guys do ok in the NBA.

      You’re impression is different than mine

      It’s not my impression, it comes from the numbers Farfa provided above.

      But before Galloway, the last guy from D-League to make an impact on the Knicks might have been John Starks. Otherwise they did better bringing NBA players out of retirement. Am I remembering wrong? Are there some more recent examples you can cite?

      Jeremy Lin, though his rights were held by NBA teams that cut him. The point I’m making is not that NBA teams (let alone the Knicks, specifically) find rotation players in the D-League all the time, though. It’s that they find passable guys for the end of their bench.

    101. I will once again advocate for John Jenkins as a free agent pickup. I like him better than Shved. Jenkins never really got much of a chance to play in Atlanta– he hurt his back as a sophomore then was stuck behind Kyle Korver last year and only got garbage time minutes, but Jenkins is a deadly perimeter shooter, consistently knocking down a high percentage of threes in college and the pros. When the Hawks declined his option he was very classy and professional about it, so he’s not a douchebag, which is nice.

      He’s a crap defender, but so is Shved, and Shved’s numbers prior to last season are really fugly. Plus Jenkins is several years younger.

    102. “I am not taking any position. I am asking people what evidence they have to support their positions.”

      If I told you I like big butts would you ask me to provide evidence that big butts really are likable? I kinda feel you would.

      I share your love of objective data but when it comes to Bargnani that is simply not what it is about….

    103. I would just assume that you like big butts and you can not lie, and that the other brothers can’t deny

    104. These guys are still relatively young, I guess, so I can’t knock him too much, but man, oh man, does Deandre Jordan come off sounding like the biggest dipshit. He calls Blake Griffin to get confirmation that Griffin won’t leave the Clippers in 2017. Griffin can’t give him any assurances. So he leaves the Clippers. He calls Griffin to see if they’re still okay and Griffin tells him he’s happy if Jordan is happy. He then calls Griffin again on Monday to say he worries he made a mistake. Griffin says to talk to Doc Rivers. And that leads us to where we are now, with Jordan apparently leaning towards staying in Los Angeles. You have nonsense like Chandler “world’s coolest guy” Parsons seriously canceling plans and getting on a plane to Houston to try to lock this shit down for the Mavs. How dumb is that? “He’s wavering! Get Chandler on a plane!”

    105. CP3 cut short his banana boat frolicking with Bron and D-Wade and then everyone started battling via emoji

    106. Right? It’s ludicrous! It’s like these guys are in the seventh grade!

      Do you like me? Check off one :Yes: :No:

    107. Spurs roll with Pop. Dallas rolls with Parsons. I’m not sure why Carlisle and Cuban aren’t on the plane too. With what’s left on the market, pride should be the last thing getting in the way. Cuban should be promising him a retirement job.

    108. Spurs roll with Pop. Dallas rolls with Parsons. I’m not sure why Carlisle and Cuban aren’t on the plane too. With what’s left on the market, pride should be the last thing getting in the way. Cuban should be promising him a retirement job.

      Oh, Cuban will be there, too, but he had to call in Parsons to help him. He’s the Center Whisperer. The Rockets used him to get Dwight Howard a couple of years ago. Everyone loves this guy for some reason.

    109. I will say this about our Melo: he knew enough to stay off the fucking banana boat

    110. It never made much sense that the moratorium exists. What would be the issue with calculating the salary cap and then starting free agency to avoid issues like this?

      There shouldn’t even be an ‘unwritten rule’ when it comes to contractual obligations. That’s the entire point of contracts.

    111. I will once again advocate for John Jenkins as a free agent pickup. I like him better than Shved. Jenkins never really got much of a chance to play in Atlanta– he hurt his back as a sophomore then was stuck behind Kyle Korver last year and only got garbage time minutes, but Jenkins is a deadly perimeter shooter, consistently knocking down a high percentage of threes in college and the pros. When the Hawks declined his option he was very classy and professional about it, so he’s not a douchebag, which is nice.

      He’s a crap defender, but so is Shved, and Shved’s numbers prior to last season are really fugly. Plus Jenkins is several years younger.

      Plus, I’ll get to sing John Jenkins Jingleheimer Schmidt everytime he hits a 3.

      I will say this about our Melo: he knew enough to stay off the fucking banana boat

      In a thread with 100 posts discussing Bargs (seriously?), this comment tops them all. Thanks for the laugh DRed.

    112. I will say this about our Melo: he knew enough to stay off the fucking banana boat

      Too much teamwork involved, Melo was on his own boat

    113. I will say this about our Melo: he knew enough to stay off the fucking banana boat

      Too much teamwork involved, Melo was on his own boat

      lol

      +1

    114. “I will ride a banana boat, but only if it was built in one of three cities, Los Angeles, Chicago or New York.”

    115. IMO every model out there that tries to measure player value with one easy to use number is flawed. I see no great advantage to using one over the other. The trick is understanding where the flaws of each are and adjusting your thinking to compensate.

      IMO

      Wins Produced does not value scoring properly at the extremes of usage and its positional adjustments occasionally break down because there are players with skill sets that don’t match traditional standards for the traditional positions. Other than that, it’s pretty darn good and IMO gets a bum rap. In my own gambling, I use it extensively to value trades with good success at projecting future results.

      PER wildly overvalues inefficient scoring and makes no attempt to capture defense other than the box score components. (defense IS partially a team effort that CAN be captured)

      Win Shares looks at the team record and divides up the wins. So a really good player on a really bad team can be undervalued and vice versa. Other than that, I like it a lot.

      Every +/- and adjusted +/- rating I’ve looked at lacks consistency from year to year, breaks down in smaller samples, and occasionally produces results that are nowhere near close to passing the smell test. That calls into question how well all the variables are actually being controlled for even when the results make sense.

    116. I don’t really care if Bargnani is sitting at the end of the bench with a minimum contract or not. I just think it makes sense to try to replace a guy that hasn’t shown any upside and is often injured with any number of players with at least similar stats that can remain healthy and might have upside. When you are already rich, it makes sense to play it safe. When you are broke, it makes sense to take some risk because that’s your only chance of real success. So I’d willingly take some D league or undrafted player that was less than 50% to be better than Bargnani for the very small chance he could turn into s starter.

    117. Oh, Cuban will be there, too, but he had to call in Parsons to help him. He’s the Center Whisperer. The Rockets used him to get Dwight Howard a couple of years ago. Everyone loves this guy for some reason.

      Netw3rk’s tweets about Chandler Parsons’ “recruiting process” have been priceless

    118. Adrian Wojnarowski ?@WojYahooNBA 2m2 minutes ago
      So far, Clippers able to keep everyone else out of house, including Cuban, agents. Everyone. They’re in four-corners until midnight Eastern.

    119. This still isn’t as farcical as Grunwald hiding in his hotel room from the Rockets

    120. My simple attempt at the Knicks cap figure is at worst case: 1 player for $2,531,900 or the Best case: 1 player for $3,341,900

      this assumes that their will be 3 vet min pick ups and a room exception guy.

    121. On the real, tho. We need to move Robin Lopez to an undisclosed location immediately.

    122. On the real, tho. We need to move Robin Lopez to an undisclosed location immediately.

      Unless they throw a substantial increase I doubt he is going. I mean he was okay waiting for the knicks to see if DJ was coming. In my opinion he wants to be near his brother. As Clyde would say it’s a Twin thing.

    123. I am kind of glad that the Cap wasn’t higher, that could have open up Jason Smith money.

    124. dolan just dispatched two armed members of the MSG public relations team to shadow ricky ledo

    125. This is turning into College Football National signing day. A big time recruit gives that Verbal commit on National TV and then a few hours later a report, momma won’t sign the papers and has taken it with her when she left the building. lol.

    126. Apparently Indiana might re-neg on the Hibbert trade with the Lakers and send him to Dallas if DJ signs with the Clippers. This is genuinely one of the most bizarre sports stories I’ve ever heard

    127. I can’t believe the big Bargs debate. Isn’t it an a priori metaphysical certainty that he stinks?

      However, part of me would like to see Phil sign him to a 2 year deal for $3 million per year (the new higher cap #?), with the 2nd year being a player option. Just to read this board erupt.

    128. This DeAndre Jordan thing is the most unprofessional bullshit I have ever heard of. What a total asswipe that guy is. I’m just glad for once that it wasn’t NYK that got completely boned.

    129. There is an invisible tea cup circling the earth that is a better basketball player than Andrea Bargnani.

      And if you disagree, please show tangible evidence to prove it.

    130. Weird day in the NBA. This free agency has been out of control and we now have two screwy player moves with Jordan today and David West giving up $10M. Neither of these things are good for the league.

      How much does the extra year and the extra money factor into Jordan’s decision? I agree that he’s a dipshit. It’s a low-class move.

    131. Though on the bright side, now that DJ’s gone back to the Clips, Bargs has to look really good to Cuban…or the Busses.

    132. My bet is that for their first home game vs. Clips, Cuban gives free tickets and a flask of Jack Daniels to every parolee in Texas. Jordan will make Lebron’s first return to Cleveland post-“the decision” seem like a love-fest.

    133. It was kinda dumb for Jordan to leave the Clips in the first place. Whatever, I hope that Clips never get to hoist the O’Brien trophy during his stay there.

    134. Thanks guys. This thread has made me laugh really hard. I love reading this site, even though I don’t post a lot. Dred I agree, let’s hope rolo is locked away somewhere.

    135. Jeremy Lin’s “I’m going to the Hornets” FB post is blah, but in the comments, he responds relatively openly to some pretty intelligent questions. Worth a look.

      This Clipper / DJ / Mavs stuff is hilarious: “Clippers to stay with Jordan until he eligible to sign the new contract”

      the unprecedented fluidity of Jordan’s free agency has convinced the Clippers that they need to stay at Jordan’s side until he can formally sign a new contract, given that Jordan has already changed his mind once in this process.

      God, to be a fly on the wall as Ballmer, Doc, CP3, Redick and Griffin sleep over covertly at DJ’s house, ensuring the curtains are drawn and distracting DJ from social media.

      Broussard on Twitter: Cuban beside himself. Driving around downtown HOUSTON begging (thru texts) Jordan’s family 4 address to DeAndre’s home

    136. I just can’t get over how disrespectful this is to Cuban, while at the same time being kind of disrespectful to Jordan himself. Not even letting Cuban talk to him? What the heck?! The idea that Jordan is cool with them essentially saying, “You’re so weak-willed we can’t leave you alone” is astonishing.

    137. So if you’re Bargniani’s agent, have you gotten any calls at all from an NBA team?

    138. That’s an excellent question. I’d have to imagine that someone has checked in by now to see if he’s interested in a vet minimum deal.

    139. The idea that Jordan is cool with them essentially saying, “You’re so weak-willed we can’t leave you alone” is astonishing.

      And this is the guy you want to pay the max for 5 years? He’s young and I don’t want to judge, but doesn’t this thing reek of Dwight Howard’s awkward ballet in 2012? I would be afraid of paying that much money to a guy so indecisive, even if I understand that the Clippers can’t do anything else.

    140. I just can’t get over how disrespectful this is to Cuban, while at the same time being kind of disrespectful to Jordan himself. Not even letting Cuban talk to him? What the heck?! The idea that Jordan is cool with them essentially saying, “You’re so weak-willed we can’t leave you alone” is astonishing.

      The situation is totally ridiculous. The NBA should remove the moratorium to prevent this kind of things.

    141. Good morning everyone! I remember reading something, a couple of days ago, about Daniel Hackett having a private workout with NY, but I haven´t heard anything about it anymore and he’s not in Knicks summer league roster. Does anyone know anything about the subject?

    142. I officially cannot stand DeAndre Jordan, and the fact that he is now teammates with the scum of the earth in Paul Pierce and Doc Rivers makes me want to see the Clippers lose every game by heartbreaking buzzer beaters.

    143. Whole DAJ thing is ridiculous — I don’t kill him necessarily for changing his mind because he’s just a 26 year old guy who has/had a huge decision to make — but man do I kill him for locking himself in his house, saying he’ll meet with Cuban, then refusing to answer calls and texts. It’s about as immature a way of handling a situation as exists. And Doc Rivers — wow. A guy who is held up as a mentor and developer of young men allows this kind of behavior out of someone he’s supposed to be mentoring. At the very least tell Deandre to text Cuban and say “sorry I screwed you guys over but I’ve changed my mind and I’m staying in LA” then shutting off your phone, rather than allowing Cuban to drive around Houston looking for you and calling constantly. Totally pathetic.

      If I’m Cuban, I’m ordering Carlisle to send Jordan to the line 80 times the first time they play against each other in Dallas so he can miss 60 of them and have the entire arena booing him mercilessly for 3 hours.

    144. If I told you I like big butts would you ask me to provide evidence that big butts really are likable? I kinda feel you would.

      No, but if you told me that big butts are better for basketball players to have than small butts, for example, then I would ask you what evidence you have to support that position and what analysis you’ve done with that evidence.

      I guess the line between opinion and more factual statements is pretty blurry on a sports blog, but the way people are wording almost all of the comments I’m responding to reads to me more like factual statements. Maybe I am doing so, but my intention is not to respond to people who say things like “I don’t like Bargnani and don’t want him on the Knicks” by asking them for evidence and analysis (I would ask them whether their personal feelings about a player are a good decision criteria, maybe). When someone says something like “the Knicks should be leaving bench spots open for in-season D-League pick-ups instead of signing veterans,” though, I think that’s a more interesting topic to probe. It’s something that we can really examine in at least a cursory way.

      I share your love of objective data but when it comes to Bargnani that is simply not what it is about….

      It certainly seems that way. But if the Knicks are a better basketball team with him than without him (not that they are, if they are), then I don’t really care much about how fans feel about the dude. I believe that fans will generally come around to guys who make their team better. (Probably to an unhealthy extent of rooting for some really unsavory individuals and just tearing to threads some good people who aren’t good pro athletes.)

    145. if you told me that big butts are better for basketball players to have than small butts, for example, then I would ask you what evidence you have to support that position and what analysis you’ve done with that evidence.

      Charley Rosen can answer that!

      “They need a center with a big butt to hold space,’’ Rosen told The Post. “They didn’t have anybody like that. It takes away a major portion of what you can do with the triangle because then it really becomes just a perimeter offense.’’

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