Knicks 2015 Free Agency Round Table: Derrick Williams

Will the Knicks be the last NBA team Williams plays for?
Kurylo: True. Going to the Knicks has been like bringing that pet home to the kids. Just make sure you get something that is cheap enough, and easily discarded. I’d bet that since 2000, more players spent their last minutes on the Knicks roster than any other team. Recent examples from the last 3 seasons: Chris Smith, Metta World Peace, Jeremy Tyler, Marcus Camby, Jason Kidd, Quentin Richardson, Kurt Thomas, Rasheed Wallace, James White and Andrea Bargnani. Well I’m hoping about that last guy.

Gibberman: I’ll say no. Teams always need bottom of the bench fodder and someone with the athletic gifts of Williams can always find a team looking to take a risk. Just look at how many chances Michael Beasley has received.

Fisher-Cohen: I advocated trading for Williams when he was stuck behind Love in the rotation, getting ripped left and right by Rick Adelman and playing most of his minutes out of position. He seemed like a talented player whose development had been obstructed by an unsupportive coach. His inability to approach his college numbers (57% three point percentage!), even from the free throw line, seemed to support the idea that the Wolves had screwed him up mentally.

Now he’s 24, and he just hasn’t improved at all in his four year career, making him a lot less exciting of a player. Still, Williams is a competent end of bench player who I think will probably stick in the league for at least a couple more years because of his draft pedigree. If Michael Beasley and Hakim Warrick can do it, so can Williams.

Cronin: The dude’s still only 24 years old. I think he has at the very least two more teams left in him. Guys with this much talent in college tend to stick around for a while. Look at his most common comparison, Michael Beasley. Beasley has had a terrible career in the pros and yet teams (well, team – the Miami Heat) keep giving him a second, third and fourth chance.

Will Bismack Biyombo earn more money in the NBA than Derrick Williams, when both careers are done?
Kurylo: Derrick Williams will be 24 years old, and will have earned $31M after he’s done with New York. Biyombo will be 23 years old, and will have earned $19M after he’s done in Toronto. Derrick Williams won’t make another cent in the NBA after his Knicks contract is done. If Dwayne Casey can find a thousand minutes for 29 year old Tyler Hansbrough last year, and nearly twice that many for Amir Johnson, then Biyombo will likely see ample playing time. And there’s always room in the league for a center that can rebound, block shots, and run the floor for 20 minutes a night.

My money is on Biyombo, if there is any karma in this world.

Gibberman: Most likely yes.. Effective defensive centers eventually get paid, but sometimes it takes extra time for teams to catch up with guys not putting up box score statistics. He’s only 22, so carving out an Omer Asik type career seems plausible.

Fisher-Cohen: Biyombo is a specialist, so on the right team, he can be a big contributor. I’d say the odds are in his favor even with the current handicap. However, Williams has a huge advantage: his player option. Teams are going to be throwing money at anything that moves next summer, so if Williams is decent, he could end up with a big stack of money from an imprudent team.

Cronin: Fascinating question. I think Biyombo will have the longer career, but I think he might be looking at low-level contracts for the rest of the way. Williams, on the other hand, has a real chance at another $5 million contract out there, so I’m actually going to go with Williams. The main thing is that Williams has a big head start on Biyombo, money-wise.

If Williams is playing more than 24 minutes per game, chance that Derek Fisher will be fired before the season is over.
Kurylo: 100%. This guy brings nothing to the table. A moderate amount of scoring volume, at an efficiency that would be embarrassing for a New York city street court, and nothing else. He doesn’t rebound, pass, steal, block shots, or even hit threes or free throws at the rate you’d expect from an NBA player. I’m sure Fisher will find playing time for him, especially after Carmelo Anthony gets hurt from playing lots of minutes. Williams will be win the KnickerBlogger “Jason Smith Award” in 2016.

Gibberman: Depends on the context. If Anthony ends up getting hurt again Fisher might not have a choice. If the Knicks are showing growth and Williams keeps getting thrown out there while playing poorly that won’t be a good look.

Fisher-Cohen: I think Fisher has another year without a ton of pressure. Jackson hired him. He’ll get burned in the process if he fires him, so unless we’re at like 10-30 come the midway point, I doubt he gets fired. I mean, consider the depth chart. The Knicks have Anthony, Porzingis, Williams, Early and Antetokounpo at the forward spots. O’Quinn will probably play center primarily while Afflalo may or may not be the starting shooting guard. There aren’t great alternatives.

Cronin: With this roster, is Williams at 24 minutes even all that crazy? Fisher can only play who he is given to work with, so no, I don’t think Fisher is going anywhere any time soon. If Year 3 is also terrible, then his seat might get a little warm. But not yet.

What does this signing say about the Knicks’ front office?
Kurylo: It takes the luster off of it for sure. Fans are mixed about Porzingis, but the front office can always fall back on Zinger’s “potential” as an excuse. Afflalo seems reasonable and a low-risk move. But sometimes you can judge a team by who they fill the bench with, and Derrick Williams stinks. He’s shown nothing. Actually that’s not true. He’s been given more than 6000 NBA minutes and has proven that no team should be seriously considering him for their roster.

Gibberman: Williams is the one move the Knicks have done this offseason that I haven’t supported immediately or come around on. If they give him a chance and he continues along the path of his previous play there’s no reason to play him. I don’t think Williams turns his career around, but he’s only played for the Timberwolves and Kings. You can’t find two more poorly run franchises during that time. Lets not get it twisted here either, New York isn’t far behind. Williams going to be interesting to see if they can do a better job developing him than they did. There are some useful physical tools here. Good organizations find ways to maximize what players have versus letting their flaws shine through.

Fisher-Cohen: I could have better appreciated this deal if not for the player option we gave Williams. Because of that, you can’t even rationalize the signing as high risk/high reward as on the off chance Williams gets his shooting touch back (after four years…), he leaves.

That says to me that Jackson’s thinking hasn’t changed much. He’s thinking short term — get players on “discounts” by giving them a player option on the hope that next year’s FA class doesn’t look past the Knicks’ win total and see the valuable role players are free agents. Maybe he thinks that this season will prove to the league that the triangle is awesome and that that will sell free agents.

In either case, he’s wrong. Players are smarter than that. Dwight Howard cited the youth and cap flexibility of the Rockets as the the thing that sold him. Monroe likely went to the Milwaukee Icicles for the same reason.

Jackson has done some good things, but he’s still making too many bad choices for me to buy into the possibility that this team could become great under his stewardship.

Cronin: I don’t think any one move defines the front office either way, but yeah, this was an awful, awful signing. Not only is $5 million too much for Williams, but the player option given to him was insane. Just cuckoo. If the only way that you can woo Derrick Williams to play for your team is to give him a player option after year one, then just let him go. There is no way that you need Derrick Williams so badly that you give him a player option after year one. So now your best case scenario is that he turns his career around and opts out of his deal. How does that make any sense? How in the world did Derrick freakin’ Williams have the leverage in the negotiations to get that player option? It doesn’t make any sense. The Afflalo second year player option was dumb, as well, but at least Afflalo sort of kind of had a market out there.

Liked it? Take a second to support Mike Kurylo on Patreon!

Mike Kurylo

Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

180 thoughts to “Knicks 2015 Free Agency Round Table: Derrick Williams”

  1. Recent examples from the last 3 seasons: Chris Smith, Metta World Peace, Jeremy Tyler, Marcus Camby, Jason Kidd, Quentin Richardson, Kurt Thomas, Rasheed Wallace, James White and Andrea Bargnani.

    Comparing a 24 year old #2 pick to these guys is below the standards of this site.

  2. If Dwayne Casey can find a thousand minutes for 29 year old Tyler Hansbrough last year, and nearly twice that many for Amir Johnson, then Biyombo will likely see ample playing time.

    This is also ridiculous. Hansbrough is better than Biyombo in every facet of the game except for blocks. Biyombo has no offensive skills, can’t dribble, pass or even catch the ball without dropping it. His bball IQ is somewhere between Anthony Randolph and JR. He’s a shorter Hasheem Tabeet.

  3. I think Mike is being a bit harsh on Derrick Williams. He does bring something valuable to the table-he’s not Jason Smith, Tim Hardaway, Andrea Bargnani, Travis Wear or Cleanthony Early. Williams is not good, but he’s improved his scoring efficiency every year he’s been in the league. His TS last season was higher than anyone who finished the year on the Knicks not named Shved. Granted, that’s not really that impressive. But my point is that he’s likely replacing minutes that went to guys who were atrocious NBA players.

    He’s definitely an overpay, and I wouldn’t have added him to the team, but he will probably help the Knicks more than you’d think just by being mediocre.

  4. Derrick Williams had 4 blocked shots in 1462 minutes last year. FOUR.

    There had to be something weird going on there, because Williams had been good for about a block every 40 minutes or so before he came to Sacto, not one block every 400 minutes. His rebounding also went utterly in the tank for the Kings last year– he had once been a pretty decent rebounder, holding his own with a 20.8 DRB% one year in about 2,000 minutes. Last season with the Kings he was down to a pitiful 12.8 DRB%.

    If you combine the best elements of Williams’ seasons– the .540 TS% from last year and the 20.8 DRB% and the 1.5 BLK% from his sophomore season in Minny, you’re probably getting near a league average player or maybe better. He’s an enigma.

  5. The thing that really kills me about the Williams’ deal is that, fine, sure, take a flier on the guy, but don’t take a flier where you accept all of the risk! The whole point of getting guys that you think might turn it around is locking down their upside. So if Williams turns out to be good, you have him signed for $5 million and if he sucks, you cut bait. Now, if he actually does turn things around (and he’s young enough that I think he theoretically could still do so), he’s a free agent again and now, if you want to keep him, you’re going to have to dip into the newly created cap space. The increased cap is already going to be increasing less than expected (because it increased more than expected this season, while next year’s increase is tied into a steady contractual increase in the TV rights), so we’re looking at roughly a $20 million cap bump. If Williams is good, then it’ll take $10 million at least to re-sign him, so you’re already looking at $15 million instead of $20, which likely takes you out of the running for any max-level free agent. The Williams’ contract was jut a bad idea all around.

  6. Yeah, the player option for Derrick Williams is right up there with failing to add a team option to the Chris Copeland contract. Just a gob-smackingly dumb, completely unnecessary error. Those are the kinds of mistakes NYK makes over and over and over again. Taken individually, they may not add up to much, but the compound effect of all these little errors is just crushing.

  7. The Williams signing sucked, but his age profile and that his best scoring attributes come from cutting off the ball and finishing at the rim are probably the biggest reasons why Phil wanted him. Again the gamble on his talent is exactly the type of thing the Knicks should do, but giving him the player option was just awful and limits any upside the Knicks stand to gain if he makes a leap this year.

    For me this is easily Phil’s worst move so far in his tenure.

  8. Manu return to the Spurs. His tweet was funny, too.

    Happy to announce that I’m coming back next season. #gospursgo #TDwouldvemissedmetoomuch.

    Freakin’ Spurs.

  9. Bjelica to the Wolves, 3 years, $11.7 mil.

    As far as Derrick goes, why do I get this feeling that Phil knows something here absolutely NO ONE ELSE does?

  10. This is also ridiculous. Hansbrough is better than Biyombo in every facet of the game except for blocks.

    Over their career, Biyombo is better in blocked shots, rebounds, fouls, turnovers and 2p%.

    If we just compare how they did last season, Biyombo is only 0.4 pts/36 behind Hansbrough. So they’re about even in scoring volume.

    Oh, BB is also 7 years younger.

  11. Recent examples from the last 3 seasons: Chris Smith, Metta World Peace, Jeremy Tyler, Marcus Camby, Jason Kidd, Quentin Richardson, Kurt Thomas, Rasheed Wallace, James White and Andrea Bargnani.

    Comparing a 24 year old #2 pick to these guys is below the standards of this site.

    Williams is clearly a bust. You know I never use per game stats, but last year he average 8.2 pts and 2.7 reb per game. He shot 31% from downtown, and that was his second best rate! And this was his 4th year in the league.

    I’m fine with touting the player that’s been looked over, but he’s got to have the underlying stats. Derrick Williams has nothing positive, except for maybe per minute scoring. This is a Jason Smith/Andrea Bargnani situation.

    Derrick Williams has as much chance to become a legitimate NBA starter as I have to unseat Magnus Carlsen.

  12. As far as Derrick goes, why do I get this feeling that Phil knows something here absolutely NO ONE ELSE does?

    I hope you are right, but my memories of last season make me doubt this. As he made trades, he kept bringing in names I knew almost nothing about. At the time I thought the same as you do now. But the truth is, overall, they didn’t turn out that impressively; for example Jason Smith didn’t impress me or anyone else here. He was just a player who could function in an NBA role and not look ridiculous doing it. Nobody’s asking that Acy be brought back and Dalembert was waived. Calderon didn’t actually perfor to his past, but that may have been due to injuries and team newness and roster turnover, so I leave him out. Galloway was the best new guy he brought on board. He looks like he really has potential. So the odds seem about 1 in 4 that we will be pleasantly surprised by Derrick.

  13. Phil’s a gambler (must have picked that up from Jordan during his Bulls’ days) so he’s willing to roll on a risk like this. His number doesn’t come up, nbd. 5 mil ain’t gonna kill us this nor next year.

  14. Myles Turner looking good in summer league. . .Hezonja had a nice dunk this afternoon-I hope everyone is ready for the full on Knicks lamestream media freakout when Barzingus comes out and doesn’t play that well. Because it’s coming.

  15. I continue to think Myles Turner will be the steal of the draft.

    I am pretty underwhelmed by our free agency signings. Not sure what to add. We won’t be horrible and Zinger is a little bit of moonshine to keep me quiet but it’s hard to generate a lot of enthusiasm right now. I suppose when training camp rolls around the juices will start flowing but it feels like we are no closer to contending than we were in the halcyon post-Eddy Curry era.

  16. I’m trying really hard to understand the Derrick Williams move but I also don’t see it, and I’m usually the optimistic one here. If you dig deep at what he does well on offense you see that he’s quite good in transition (top 20 or so in the league in PPP in transition for guys with >100 possessions), is adequate as a roll man and at basket cuts. He’s a bad spot up shooter and has no post game to speak of. And pretty much every defensive analytic says he’s at the very best a below-average defender.

    I really hope that he was brought in for bench depth. I’d much rather see either Porzingis, Melo, or O’Quinn starting at the 4, and that a reasonable portion of the wing minutes are given to guys who still may have some upside like Early and Thanasis. But paying $5MM makes you think he will play more minutes.

  17. I continue to think Myles Turner will be the steal of the draft.

    He might be, but remember that in college, he was amazing against not-great competition, and was pretty bad against better competition.

    But yeah – I wouldn’t have been upset if we had traded back and picked him up.

    Meanwhile has anyone heard anything about Porzingis and whether he’ll play summer league? It’s been total silence out there about this hip thing.

  18. I’m pretty sure I saw something saying Porgingus would be playing in Vegas.

    Anyone see the picture of Kristaps and Grant at the Mets game? He towers over Mr. Met, and Mr. Met is really tall.

  19. Good luck then, MK. ;)

    Hey if Derrick Williams makes good, that’d really inspire me to go for Candidate Master. Of course I’d have lots of less time to blog about basketball… which would probably be a plus given how wrong I was on him.

    Win-Win!

  20. Will the Knicks be the last NBA team Williams plays for?
    Does that include “D” league or WNBA? A better question might be “Are the Cavs the last NBA team JR Smith plays for?”
    The straight answer is “no” but I think there’s a 1-in-5 chance he turns his career around in NY. He has skills. If he grows up and adds desire to the skills, he’ll have a good career. I’m banking he’ll develop along the same lines as Eddie Curry did.

    Will Bismack Biyombo earn more money in the NBA than Derrick Williams, when both careers are done?
    I’m not all that high on Biyombo either but I think he’ll be an earn more just because he’ll have value for up to a decade more and Williams won’t last more than 3 years at this pace.

    If Williams is playing more than 24 minutes per game, chance that Derek Fisher will be fired before the season is over.
    I lean towards Mike’s answer (100%) but it really all depends on team health and William’s desire. Let’s say there’s a 50% chance Fisher gets fired at the end of this year. It may have something to do with how much PT Williams gets or there may be other reasons.

    What does this signing say about the Knicks’ front office?
    One one level it means that Phil is not afraid to take a gamble with Dolan’s money. Williams has a very high upside. If he plays equal to the way he was drafted, he’s a steal. The worst part about this deal is that Williams has the option, not the Knicks. If he does well, he’ll look for a payday elsewhere. If he stinks, he’ll pick up his option and we get stuck with $5M cap issue.

  21. I know people who haven’t sat out the last few years like I have are a lot more jaded than I am. I’ve been there, too, believe me.

    However, I think that you guys are allowing your past experiences with the Knicks color your opinions too much on this DW deal. If you bet against the Knicks, you’re going to be right more often than not. I think that you guys are overlooking the good in this deal, though.

    First, this deal is really very cheap by current NBA standards. $5 mill isn’t what it used to be. The upside in this deal is really about getting even acceptable play at $5 mill being a total bargain in today’s NBA free agency. The Knicks had to accept some downside to get that upside, in the form of the player option. The fact that they’re not beholden to him if he does well could actually be a good thing with a mercurial player like DW.

    Second, we can’t just blindly look at stats. Over a large enough sample, I would also prefer players who have performed well on the court. Free agency is a series of samples of one, though. The Knicks are betting that DW hasn’t showed his true talent level for reasons that don’t show up in the box score. There’s certainly a chance they are right and on a one year deal they might capture that one prove-it year like the 2013-14 Heat did with Beasley. The Knicks have actually spoken to DW, as well, and there can be value in that kind of subjective info if you use it correctly.

    You guys seem to want to use the DW signing as a referendum on the entire Knicks organization… it’s just one signing, though. Taking one relatively small shot on one promising player who might be a good one year stopgap.

  22. Many thanks for the reference Jowles. I hope it’s a good precedent for Williams.

  23. He might be, but remember that in college, he was amazing against not-great competition, and was pretty bad against better competition.

    Okay, but when you couple small sample size and nebulous terms like “not-great” and “better,” you get a whole lot of evaluative nothing. The NBA draft is a huge crapshoot. You can get players like Derrick Williams who had a .690 TS% his senior year and they turn out to be total duds, which is what Derrick Williams is. Or you can get a purported 3-and-D guy like Kawhi Leonard who becomes an overall All-NBA caliber player during his rookie year.

  24. The worst part about this deal is that Williams has the option, not the Knicks. If he does well, he’ll look for a payday elsewhere. If he stinks, he’ll pick up his option and we get stuck with $5M cap issue.

    Totally agree that player options are good for the player and bad for the team. However, I’m not as worried about this particular option as others seem to be.

    Even if he has a good-to-great year, I don’t know if I want to be on the hook for more than one year. While he may turn his career around, he may also follow the career path of a Beasley who has a good year but doesn’t become a good player. So, while it would be better to have and decline, I wouldn’t love a team option here as much as in most cases.

    In terms of the downside… I don’t think it’s all that great. Of course there are somewhat remote but totally possible cases where he has a career altering injury or goes totally off the deep-end and the Knicks are still on the hook. I think that the overwhelming probability in terms of him exercising the option, though, if that he comes in somewhere around his career numbers, maybe misses some time due to a non-recurring injury, likes it in NY at least somewhat, and just decides to stay (though with the new cap even then he might opt-out). While he’s not lived up to his talent, his career NBA numbers are a PER of 13 and a WS/48 of 0.69. He’s been within sniffing distance of those numbers every season he’s been in the league, so it’s not like he’s had total clunkers of seasons. So… while that’s overly simplistic, in a season I think there’s a very good chance the Knicks will take DW at $5 mill per even if he has an average DW season.

  25. in the likely event that calderon is finished and derrick williams is barely a vet min guy… thats a drain of about 13mm on 2017 cap… add in afflalo and all of a sudden that’s 21mm… these things add up pretty quickly…

  26. You can get players like Derrick Williams who had a .690 TS% his senior year and they turn out to be total duds, which is what Derrick Williams is.

    I’m not so sure that’s true (about DW, not the draft). If DW was the 2nd pick in Round 2 instead of Round 1 and had the exact same NBA career to date, I think Knicks fans would be a whole lot happier with the signing. I think their knowledge that he’s an “underachiever” relative to his talent is clouding their judgement.

    His career numbers are a PER of 13 and a WS/48 of 0.69. His TS% has inched up every single season from a rookie level of .499 to a .540 mark last season. If he would stop taking so many 3s (over 5 per 36 three of four seasons at a .301 career rate), his TS% might jump again next season. While I don’t think he’ll ever be much on the glass, as a full-time PF he might be merely bad instead of terrible (12.4 TRB% in Min vs. 9.0 in Sac).

    He’s not an ideal NBA player, but at $5 mill he probably at worst gives the Knicks some offense off the bench and at best could be a solid starting F for a year before leavings (well, re-signing and stinking is worse than leaving I suppose).

  27. in the likely event that calderon is finished and derrick williams is barely a vet min guy… thats a drain of about 13mm on 2017 cap… add in afflalo and all of a sudden that’s 21mm… these things add up pretty quickly…

    Afflalo at $8m is a decent value. I mean Iman Shumpert just inked a $10m AAV deal. Afflalo on $8m is about right. Not the sexiest signing, but I think that one makes a lot more sense than the DWill contract.

  28. The thing that really kills me about the Williams’ deal is that, fine, sure, take a flier on the guy, but don’t take a flier where you accept all of the risk!

    Then you’re probably not going to get a former #2 pick in the draft who is only 24 (or whatever) for $5 million annually. $5 million is just nothing in today’s NBA and just about every team can spend that. The Knicks can’t just dictate terms to players. The players have a say in things as well.

    I am totally cool with fans second guessing decisions… but when it’s a minutia of decisions you have zero visibility into, I think it’s a total waste of time. Maybe the Knicks just handed DW a player option when no other team would have even signed him for one year. Or maybe another team offered him 2 years, $12 million guaranteed but he wanted to come to NY where the PF spot might be open and he can work with Jax and Melo. Chances are reality is somewhere between the two, but we just don’t know.

  29. With all this chatter about the Cavs trying to get Joe Johnson, or today’s rumor about Jamal Crawford, what sort of weird mind-trickery did they do to get JR to opt out of his contract? Did they just straight lie to him?

    There’s literally been zero chatter about JR signing anywhere.

    I still can’t believe he opted out instead of playing out the year and then trying his hand at FA with the huge amount of money available next year. Or did he think his finals performance (or lack thereof) was going to propel him to a big contract this offseason? Just mind-boggling, but I guess it’s JR.

  30. I’m starting to think Mike Kurylo might not like the Derrick Williams signing.

  31. David West to the Spurs for $1.5MM. Wow.

    Awful. Go Everybody-But-The-Spurs.

  32. There’s literally been zero chatter about JR signing anywhere.

    I still can’t believe he opted out instead of playing out the year and then trying his hand at FA with the huge amount of money available next year. Or did he think his finals performance (or lack thereof) was going to propel him to a big contract this offseason? Just mind-boggling, but I guess it’s JR.

    Couldn’t happen to a better guy

  33. Good for David West. Pretty baller to just throw away 10.5 million in order to play meaningful basketball.

  34. Guys, the player option can’t be dumb. I was just told last week, repeatedly, by so many posters here, that Phil Jackson has 11 rings and if he seems to needlessly throw something into a contract it’s because he’s smarter than us and we weren’t part of the negotiations.

    Sarcasm aside, if Derrick Williams does turn it around, hopefully we flip him by February.

  35. @36

    +1

    Yeah, and LeBron’ll sign for $1.5M too. Awful. Just awful. I am now rooting for the Spurs to get bounced in the 1st round. It’ll serve West right. I am rooting against them and especially West.

  36. I would love for the Spurs to get LeBron. We could watch the Warriors, probably the best team since the 72-10 Bulls, get smoked by them.

    And thanks for that, Z-Man. I’m actually excited about Porzingis — look at that shot! — but when all you do is watch highlight film, you forget that a good player still misses about half his shots. I call it the ESP-JordaN effect. Proximity bias and shit.

  37. They should try selling tickets to those Eurocup games. My junior high school cafeteria had more atmosphere.

  38. My biggest problem with Phil so far is his inability to get the little advantages. Things like player options and team options, cash and second round picks on trades. Little incremental advantages that add up, advantages that savvy GMs always seem to get.

  39. http://www.msg.com/teams/knicks/knicks-fix/knicks-get-quantity-instead-of-quick-fix.html

    From former beat writer turned Knicks shill Alan Hahn:

    “Another reality that has yet to be presented involves Greg Monroe, who, for months, was linked to the Knicks as a free agent target. The Knicks reportedly met with Monroe on the first night of free agency, but contrary to reports based on what Monroe’s agent, David Falk, said, the Knicks never made a full max offer to Monroe. In fact, I’ve heard from a few people that the Knicks never made any offer to Monroe. The max, apparently, was assumed by Falk.

    There was interest in Monroe, but the plan changed at the NBA Draft, when the decision to draft 7-1 project Kris Porzingis was made. With Porzingis, an offensive talent, the Knicks needed to focus on a defensive-minded big man.

    This is why DeAndre Jordan, not Monroe, became the priority. Jordan, who was frustrated being overshadowed on the endorsement front by teammates Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, had an interest in the New York market. Jordan’s defense and rebounding would have been major assets for the Knicks, but there was greater competition for his services. The Dallas Mavericks, in Jordan’s home state of Texas, were a better fit.

    Enter Robin Lopez.

    Phil Jackson has long admired Lopez. You can just imagine what that meeting was like between the two eccentric personalities, who, I’m told, became fast friends. Lopez brings the Knicks a defensive presence who is also quite mobile and, most importantly, has a high basketball IQ. He’ll easily fit into the “learners” category when it comes to the Triangle Offense.”

  40. Larry Sanders is eccentric, big, and good at defense. Put up a smoke signal big chief triangle

  41. @42 found the link on P&T, but couldn’t re-find it to credit the source!

    Hey Jowles, I posted a comment yesterday about the Spurs:
    “They essentially gave up on Splitter (Career WS48= .182) and Joseph (last years WS48 = .149) to pay the max to a guy with a career WS48 of .135 and a WS48 of .o69 in 34 playoff games. If Phil had done that, folks here would be crucifying him!”

    I can’t imagine that you think this was a good move by the Spurs, as LMA is essentially a taller Melo and this trade defies advanced stats logic. Why haven’t you weighed in on this? You’re not going all ruruland on us, are you?

  42. For the nostalgic among you, in the Porzingis video I posted in @41, he blocks a shot from behind after getting beat on a drive. The victim: Mardy Collins!

  43. From former beat writer turned Knicks shill Alan Hahn:

    Yep, that latter part is why I find that extremely hard to buy into. “Jackson never even wanted Monroe. He just met at him at 12:01 AM because, well, uhmm…shut up!” Give me a break, Alan.

  44. Myles Turner looking good in summer league. . .

    If we could have traded down for him and got a pick next year, that would’ve been great. Seems like all those options were explored, though, and no one bit. That said, it is entirely possible that a majority of the lottery picks this year become great players – it was that deep of a draft. After KAT, no sure things, but no certain busts, either.

    Which means that, despite the fact we are the Knicks, it might work out even for us.

    in the Porzingis video I posted in @41, he blocks a shot from behind after getting beat on a drive.

    I expect that will happen a lot this year – both that Staps will get beaten on the drive, and that he’ll make up the distance and block the shot because of his size, length, and athleticism.

  45. As for Cole, I am baffled that his value at 15 minutes a night for the minimum doesn’t seem as clear to the front office as it does to (most of) us. I guess if you’re a coach it’s a real turnoff to have a guy who can’t run for more than 5 minutes without needing CPR.

    And I do hope we bring back Shved, if only so I can say I told you so. The guy could and should be a rotation player on a playoff team. Maybe that team will be the Knicks.

  46. @42
    No biggie but I assume you mean the availability heuristic. Proximity bias isn’t really a thing AFAIK.
    Not sure the relevance anyhow since the vid had about as many missed shots as made ones, botched as completed passes, etc.

  47. Agreed, Brian, although I do agree with the underlying logic…once we drafted Porzingis, Monroe made less sense than a bonafide defensive 5. (I never thought he made sense!)

  48. Agreed, Brian, although I do agree with the underlying logic…once we drafted Porzingis, Monroe made less sense than a bonafide defensive 5. (I never thought he made sense!)

    I think Monroe still made plenty of sense as a young scorer who could be a part of the next good Knick team. Him and Zinger running the inside out game in three years could be awesome. But whether you agree with that or not (and it’s totally fair not to, of course) it seems pretty clear that Jackson himself wanted Monroe and this is just BS after the fact mind games. Notice how Jackson canceled on Aldridge when it was made clear to him that Aldridge wasn’t interested, but he didn’t cancel on Monroe despite allegedly changing his mind on him a week earlier? What a load of nonsense.

  49. Well, what about the fact that whether Phil offered the max or not, or even made an offer at all, is still in dispute? If Phil REALLY wanted him, why is there no clarity on that point? Falk makes it sound like the Knicks made a max offer and Monroe spurned him, but he’s the only one saying it.

    If Phil went through with the meeting but made less than a max offer, which is what was initially reported, he clearly DIDN’T want him, as it was pretty obvious that anything less than the max would be rejected, especially at 12:01AM on 7/1. Truth is, we really don’t know what happened.

  50. I’m not that impressed with either Winslow or Johnson. Winslow seems way taller! Hezonja looks way better than either of those guys.

  51. Well, what about the fact that whether Phil offered the max or not, or even made an offer at all, is still in dispute? If Phil REALLY wanted him, why is there no clarity on that point? Falk makes it sound like the Knicks made a max offer and Monroe spurned him, but he’s the only one saying it.

    If Phil went through with the meeting but made less than a max offer, which is what was initially reported, he clearly DIDN’T want him, as it was pretty obvious that anything less than the max would be rejected, especially at 12:01AM on 7/1. Truth is, we really don’t know what happened.

    Jackson tried to get Melo to take less than the max, as well. I don’t think him offering less than the max is an indication of anything other than him trying to get Monroe to take less than the max.

  52. I’m not that impressed with either Winslow or Johnson. Winslow seems way taller!

    I don’t get the context of the second part of that sentence. It seems like a compliment of Winslow, no?

  53. Yep, that latter part is why I find that extremely hard to buy into. “Jackson never even wanted Monroe. He just met at him at 12:01 AM because, well, uhmm…shut up!” Give me a break, Alan.

    Alan Hahn was never Chris Herring, but he was once a decent sportswriter. Now he’s just MSG’s information minister. Basically, Berman without Charley Rosen’s mobile number.

  54. Brian, I don’t think that’s a valid comparison. Phil still agreed to pay Melo $20+ million more than any other team could offer. Monroe was 100% going to get an offer at the max from another team. If Phil offered less than the max, he was essentially saying “we’ll take you at a discount, but if you want the max, go somewhere else.” That reflects lukewarm interest, and little fear of losing out. Surely you don’t think Jackson is stupid enough to believe that Monroe was in the bag, even with a discount?

    What’s silly is, on one hand, Phil gets criticized for offering terms that are too generous (Williams, Afflalo) and on the other hand, for nickel-and-diming guys (Monroe.) I have no problem with people feeling that it was stupid of Phil to NOT be totally committed to signing Monroe. But if he didn’t make a max offer, or any offer, during that first meeting, he wasn’t all that concerned about missing out.

    On the other hand, how about stringing Lopez along until DeAndre made a final decision? I still don’t know how he pulled that one off.

  55. Actually it’s a diss to Johnson. He seems like a classic tweener…too small for SF, not skilled enough for SG.

  56. Truth is, we really don’t know what happened.

    This.

    What’s silly is, on one hand, Phil gets criticized for offering terms that are too generous (Williams, Afflalo) and on the other hand, for nickel-and-diming guys (Monroe.)

    I would just say that the criticism over too generous of offers doesn’t seem that well founded in today’s NBA. Whatever you think of the the Afflalo and DW signings, they got bench-player money on short-term commitments. I can see arguing that the Knicks could have used their money in better ways (signed different players), but I’m not sure that anyone can expect those kind of players to sign for less than what they did in today’s market. (The absolute hatred for Derrick Williams on here really bewilders me.)

    On the other hand, how about stringing Lopez along until DeAndre made a final decision? I still don’t know how he pulled that one off.

    I would also lump this under the “we don’t know” category, but it is pretty common for second tier free agents to wait for the market for the first tier guys to shake out.

  57. (The absolute hatred for Derrick Williams on here really bewilders me.)

    I don’t like the deal only because of the opportunity cost, not the size of the deal or the player option. But now that it’s made, my hope is that Derrick Williams becomes the next Scottie Pippin, even if it means we lose him after year 1.

  58. Hernangomez has some moments in that Porzingis video, too, esp. around the 6 minute mark: ORB, goes up strong, fouled. Then later a nice dish. He’s a banger but looks a tad undersized.

  59. Hernangomez reminds me a lot of Pekovic in terms of his build and how he plays offensively

  60. Pekovic is a bit bigger, but Hernangomez is pretty burly, and he’s really got good skills. Not long, though, and can’t jump.

  61. The options do matter. Writing $13 million in puts on Afflalo and Derrick Williams for 2015-16 could maybe (nah) be a reasonable cost of carry for a team who could actually generate some benefits from the upside case. But even if both of these guys turn out about as well as we could reasonably imagine this year, the Knicks are still going to suck. And the idea that this team winning 37 games versus, say, 33 games thanks in part to two players no longer under contract is going to attract a free agent in the future seems…optimistic.

    On the other hand, in the much greater likelihood that these guys play at rather low levels, you have $13 million exercised against you. this is only ~15% of the cap, so it’s not the end of the world, but it’s not nothing. That 15% might matter and the contributions of these two guys this year just won’t. Small decisions that seem superficially benign but really have only downside when it comes to team-building are signs of the second shittiest of front office traits: myopia. But I admit it’s still way better than the petty, vindictive crap than we’re used to. Plus we got Kyle O’Quinn.

  62. I can’t imagine that you think this was a good move by the Spurs, as LMA is essentially a taller Melo and this trade defies advanced stats logic. Why haven’t you weighed in on this? You’re not going all ruruland on us, are you?

    I have absolutely no idea. The Spurs know more than I do, though, and if there’s anyone who can maximize player talent, it’s Pop.

    No biggie but I assume you mean the availability heuristic. Proximity bias isn’t really a thing AFAIK.

    Yes, that. I was also pointing out that Z-man’s video showed both, and on the whole there are far fewer “lowlight” videos than there are highlight videos, which I presume interferes with our ability to evaluate talent.

  63. Z-man,
    Thanks for the video. Porzingis does look pretty raw in the video. He dribbles into traffic (0:17) doesn’t fight on the boards (2:08, 7:38), makes stupid passes (6:50), gets in the way of his own team mates (4:55), and likes to chuck up long shot tre’s (7:00).

    The optimist in me likes to think these are all correctable offenses.

  64. “I have absolutely no idea. The Spurs know more than I do, though, and if there’s anyone who can maximize player talent, it’s Pop.”

    So in other words, because it Pop, Buford and the Spurs, you give them the benefit of the doubt based on track record. That’s it?! I’m not buying it. You take great pride in ALWAYS deferring to advanced stats, and have said ad nauseum that the key to the Spurs success is in their sophisticated use of analytical data. Yet all of the advanced metrics, ESPECIALLY WP48, calls this choice an extremely dumb one, for both the present and the future of the franchise.

    Are you really saying that the WP and other regression-based models are valid unless the Spurs decide that they aren’t?

    Why is it so hard to say that the Great Pop and Exalted Buford probably made a dumb move? Wouldn’t that be the “honorable” thing to do?

  65. I don’t like the deal only because of the opportunity cost, not the size of the deal or the player option.

    What opportunity cost are you referring to? (Not a smartass remark, really asking what specifically they’re missing out on that you would rather have.)

    my hope is that Derrick Williams becomes the next Scottie Pippin, even if it means we lose him after year 1.

    Guy has a career ast% of like 5… ;)

  66. Comparing a 24 year old #2 pick to these guys is below the standards of this site.

    #2 picks Hasheem Thabeet, Michael Beasley, Darko Milicic, Marvin Williams, Stromile Swift, and Evan Turner were all 24 once. 25 was a magical age for exactly none of them.

  67. http://bkref.com/tiny/rnRU3

    Wilson Chandler and Derrick Williams are following very similar career paths when you look at their per 36 and advanced numbers. Wilson Chandler was a useful player for us, and I think Derrick Williams will too be a useful player for us. At the very least, he’ll have a highlight reel dunk in a blowout loss that can make us feel good for twenty seconds.

  68. If the Knicks can add Larry Sanders we need to see if Hank Kingsley will sign without a player option.

  69. The options do matter.

    Who said that they don’t? It’s a matter of how much they matter. A matter of what the probability the player exercises is and the overall expected return.

    And the idea that this team winning 37 games versus, say, 33 games thanks in part to two players no longer under contract is going to attract a free agent in the future seems…optimistic.

    You’ve completely made up a number of wins and an improvement thanks to these two to suite your argument… Then you’ve boiled down team building to one factor (free agency)… Then you’ve tried to boil down the reasons a player selects a new team to one factor.

    On the other hand, in the much greater likelihood that these guys play at rather low levels, you have $13 million exercised against you.

    Afflalo is coming off a career worst type of season and just got 2/$16 guaranteed. Williams will be a 25 year old who has averaged 13 PER and .69 WS/48 and was drafted #2 overall not that long ago.

    It’s certainly possible that neither opts out. I have no idea how you decided that there’s a much greater likelihood that they don’t, though.

    Small decisions that seem superficially benign but really have only downside when it comes to team-building are signs of the second shittiest of front office traits: myopia.

    You have decided to only focus on the downside. There’s actually quite a bit of upside in having talented role players on short-term deals that give you lots of flexibility going forward. You seem to be the one viewing things myopically by acting as if the entire future of the franchise boils down to next off-season.

  70. Ted, I’m referring to just keeping the $5 million in cap space open in case someone became available later, or even during the year. Cap space opens up trade possibilities.

  71. What opportunity cost are you referring to? (Not a smartass remark, really asking what specifically they’re missing out on that you would rather have.)

    Well, since you ask…

    The opportunity cost is in not simply waiving Felton and JR Smith. If Jackson had bought them out, they’d have taken up less 2016/2017 salary than what Afflalo and Williams, two obvious stopgaps, are now taking up. Jackson didn’t need to trade Felton and JR. He could have achieved culture change the Stan Van “See Ya Josh Smith” Gundy way, but he wanted their salaries off the books to pursue free agents with this year. If he hadn’t been so bent on trading their salaries, he could have made better trades with the few assets he was actually dealt (Tyson and Shump). So there is a hidden opportunity cost in the deals, because neither Afflalo or Williams are going to provide any long term substantial benefit.

  72. But as I said, Ted, I’m not bent out of shape about the deals. My hope is that they somewhat outperform their contracts and love playing here enough to opt in. If they don’t, they won’t be a complete waste, just somewhat overpaid (a total of $7 million over the Vet’s minimum for 2 players.)

  73. I think the only high pick that sucked initially that turned into a great player was Chauncey Billups, who went from below average to one of the two best players on a powerhouse team. So while we can’t expect Derrick Williams to wake up and justify the #2 pick in that (very weak) draft, I think he can reach a .560 TS% next season playing primarily off the ball.

  74. #2 picks Hasheem Thabeet, Michael Beasley, Darko Milicic, Marvin Williams, Stromile Swift, and Evan Turner were all 24 once. 25 was a magical age for exactly none of them.

    I wouldn’t go nearly as far as the original poster, but I do think that comparing DW to the guys Mike did was ridiculous.

    A lot of the guys Mike mentioned were in their late-30s and came here to ride their final year(s). Others were just borderline NBA players who barely had NBA careers and just happened to get shots on the Knicks (every team has a decently long list of those types).

    DW just turned 24 and has a career PER of 13 and WS/48 of 0.69. There’s a chance that he plays his way out of the league (or just gets hurt or something), but I think there’s a much better chance that he gets a shot with another NBA team than a 40 year old Jason Kidd or 39 year old Rasheed Wallace who had just sat out two seasons in retirement or a 31 year old James White who had a total of 10 NBA games and at least 4 of 6 pro seasons in Europe before the Knicks took a shot on him.

  75. Afflalo is coming off a career worst type of season and just got 2/$16 guaranteed.

    No, it’s a 1/1 option, just like Williams.

    You’ve completely made up a number of wins and an improvement thanks to these two to suite your argument

    To suit my argument? So you think a more reasonable upside is these guys take the Knicks from what? 33 wins to 45 wins? 38 to 48? If anything, I used #s that were friendly to contra case.

    Then you’ve boiled down team building to one factor (free agency)

    Of course not. Cap space is a scarce asset. Good for all kinds of stuff, fun at parties, rarely grumpy.

    There’s actually quite a bit of upside in having talented role players on short-term deals that give you lots of flexibility going forward.

    I don’t see it.

  76. Ted, I’m referring to just keeping the $5 million in cap space open in case someone became available later, or even during the year. Cap space opens up trade possibilities.

    Yeah, there’s some value in open cap space but it’s pretty amorphous. I have no problem taking a shot on a decent player (on his career to date) with upside over hoping that a trade becomes available at some point down the road, personally.

    So there is a hidden opportunity cost in the deals, because neither Afflalo or Williams are going to provide any long term substantial benefit.

    Interesting theory… Not only have you decides already that these two players have no value, but you have also decided that the opportunity cost is the hidden cost of not trading Chandler and Shump for some unknown return that may or may not have been out there?

    My hope is that they somewhat outperform their contracts and love playing here enough to opt in.

    My hope is that they kill it, and then both they and the Knicks can evaluate their options again in a year.

  77. No, it’s a 1/1 option, just like Williams.

    He is guaranteed $16 million and can choose whether he wants the second $8 million or not.

    To suit my argument? So you think a more reasonable upside is these guys take the Knicks from what? 33 wins to 45 wins? 38 to 48? If anything, I used #s that were friendly to contra case.

    Some numbers that are based on something and not just pulled out of your butt would be good…

    I don’t see it.

    You can’t see something when your eyes are shut.

  78. If you’re willing to offer a player option, you are expressing that you really want the player and that you have faith that the player won’t be totally worthless in year 2. At the same time, you are accepting the risk that the player may play well enough to want more and may opt out, leaving you to fill their spot with either a lesser player or to pay more for them.

    If you, as GM, think there is a substantial risk that the player will absolutely suck, you shouldn’t even sign them to a 1 year deal, and certainly not a 2-year deal without a team option.

    So it can be safely concluded that Phil felt that both of these guys were likely to preform at least close to their salary in year 2, and that if they overperformed, that would pay off in other ways (e.g more wins this year, more attractive landing spot for FAs in 2016.)

    I don’t think either gamble is particularly risky, especially compared to, say, drafting Porzingis over WCS. In 3 years, no one will remember whether their deals had an opt-out.

  79. This is not a prefect free agency signing but for me it is decent.
    5m is a good risk reward.
    Also Williams is 24yo I must admit that I hoped the Kniocks will do some of this signings. Williams is not a worst player. He copuld be a contributor.
    We should have sign more players ala Derrick Williams like Thomas Robinson, Ray Parks and the likes. If we will have 8-9players of the bench iot should be someone with an upside.
    Laast year proves the sigining the likes of Jah, Acy which are ok players but no upside.

  80. also does Derrick Williams can defend? I mean will a front line of Rolo Melo Dwill will be “decent’ enough to give us fighting chance every game?

  81. Also can we sign more free agents? I am thinking to give out flyers to the likes of Gerald Green and if we land kendrick perkins at the minimum.
    I know we hate Perk as a player but come on, He’s been with winning teams and will be a tough locker room presence. Also Jeremy Lin for minimum for linsanity 2.0 yeah!

  82. A few things that should be pointed out:

    1. The Chandler – Williams comparisons are sound EXCEPT that Chandler could defend the 3-4 quite well (the 2, not so much.) Otherwise, an apt comparison. Clearly you prefer him coming off the bench, but he might have to start at first.

    2. I like to watch summer league sometimes, but I’m basing exactly squat on what these kids do in summer league. Remember N8 tha Gr8’s back-to-back summer league MVPs?

  83. I liked the creativity of the Derrick Williams contract. It’s great for a young stud that you think is about to break out. It’s a “show me” deal.
    Whether Williams is that guy is obviously debatable.

    The money, 5 million, is just high enough, that if he does outperform the contract, it’s not going to be my much. Let’s say he has a realistically attainable good year of 25mpg, efficient 11pts, 5 reb, passable Defense. Can he opt out and expect more than, say 7M/yr?

    If the Triangle is as hard as they say it is, or it just takes time to learn, he might sniff those numbers, but he’s probably not going to greatly exceed them. So odds are at worst he’s probably gonna opt in next year, or in best (realistic) case he’ll opt out and ask for a 2 or 3M raise. Obviously if he pours in 15/8 you hit the jackpot and you pay the man his money.

    One thing though, the contract also means that they believe in him, so they’re going to give him plenty of chances to “show them”. And given our lack of depth at the 3/4, he’s probably going to get more than enough chances. He’s a lock to start. And will have a mighty long leash. Hopefully it works out.

    Worst case is you’ll have a young productive player at market value.

  84. The creativity of the deal? Just give him a team option instead of player and it’s whatever. Giving player options to guys who don’t deserve em isn’t creative.

    And also Stanley Johnson is going to be a stud. He’s not a ‘tweener’ at all.

  85. Interesting theory… Not only have you decides already that these two players have no value, but you have also decided that the opportunity cost is the hidden cost of not trading Chandler and Shump for some unknown return that may or may not have been out there?

    I’m not 100% that I understand the question you are asking. But I’ll try to clarify based on what I think your points are:

    Have I decided that Afflalo and Williams have no long-term value to the Knicks? Yes and no. I think that they were signed as placeholders. Afflalo, in his 30s, definitely was. And Williams the Knicks are pretty much damned if he plays well and damned if he don’t (but it’s a pretty good bet that he won’t). So neither will likely be on the 2017 team.

    Does that mean they have no long-term value? No, it doesn’t. Because their contributions (if they play well) in 2015 and 2016 can make the Knicks better, and if they get better then they are more attractive to the 2017 free agent class two summers from now. That isn’t nothing, as this summer has proven.

    But I think that relatively marginal and unquantifiable benefit outweighs the potentially significant opportunity cost of not obtaining actual assets to control and develop beyond 2017. Chandler and Shumpert were both used to shed unwanted characters and their attached salaries. They could have been dealt individually, for those future assets, as has been discussed here often over the past year. Chandler, obviously, was a useful player as demonstrated by his strong season and subsequent $50 million deal. Shump, too, proved to have a market, which Jackson cashed in on to dump Smith.

    So the return was out there. True it remains unknown, but for a team starved for assets, it only makes sense to trade the ones you have for cap spice IF you use that cap space for assets and not just for placeholders.

    Not sure if this answers your question, but hopefully it helps explain my position on the matter.

  86. Yep, it’s not genius level stuff, but we don’t usually see much from the Knicks. Again, they strongly believe in him, so they chose to structure it in a way that benefited both parties. I’m confident he could’ve gotten 5m/yr from a number of teams.

    I love me some Stanley Johnson.

  87. Obviously if he pours in 15/8 you hit the jackpot and you pay the man his money.

    I think you make some very good points. I agree that it seems like a pretty fair deal for a decent player with some upside.

    I’m just not sure about using per game pts / reb to determine a player’s worth. For example, in three seasons in Min DW averaged 16 pts / 8 reb per 36 minutes. He just averaged 22.6 MPG.

    Whether he gets to the numbers you mention is probably largely a function of how many minutes he plays. Playing more minutes can be a sign that he did enough to earn more minutes, or it can be a sign that the Knicks had no better options, or it could just be a poor decision by the Knicks to play him over a more deserving player.

    He’s a lock to start.

    Not that they have a bunch of candidates to start over DW, but $5 million isn’t really starters money in the NBA anymore. I imagine there a good chance he will start. I don’t know if I’d say he’s a lock, though.

    The creativity of the deal? Just give him a team option instead of player and it’s whatever. Giving player options to guys who don’t deserve em isn’t creative.

    Offer a team option to a guy who ends up signing with a player option, and chances are very high that he would just elsewhere. The Knicks aren’t the most competent team out there, but I also don’t think they’re so incompetent that they can’t navigate fair market value at the low end of the free agent pool.

    DW is a barely 24 year old guy who has averaged 13 PER and .69 WS on his career… Not sure how you’ve decided he doesn’t deserve a player option. The market determined that he did deserve one, though.

  88. I think that they were signed as placeholders.

    The benefit of a short-term deal is that you can re-evaluate a players’ fit shortly after signing them (and aren’t strapped down long-term). I really doubt that the Knicks have already decided the longer-term value of these two players to them. I imagine they are optimistic, but will wait to see how the two do before deciding anything.

    Afflalo, in his 30s, definitely was.

    Afflalo is 29 and shooters can age fairly gracefully.

    And Williams the Knicks are pretty much damned if he plays well and damned if he don’t (but it’s a pretty good bet that he won’t).

    That’s a weird take. If he plays well, they get value beyond their $5 million investment. They can then choose what they want to offer him going forward. And why is it a good bet that a 24 year old with career 13 PER and 0.69 WS/48 won’t play well?

    if they get better then they are more attractive to the 2017 free agent class two summers from now.

    Or, they can re-sign one or both players. Or they can trade them. There are lots of ways they can contribute.

    But I think that relatively marginal and unquantifiable benefit outweighs the potentially significant opportunity cost of not obtaining actual assets to control and develop beyond 2017.

    The benefit of having actual players contribute is neither marginal nor unquantifiable. The benefit of unknown trades that may or may not have been available for some unknown assets is pretty much unquantifiable.

    So the return was out there.

    What return, though? Some unknown return that you’ve not even attempting to show…

    You’re also not really talking about opportunity cost. These deals were made before free agency. The Knicks didn’t know exactly who they could sign at the time. You’re playing a hindsight game.

  89. Yep, it’s not genius level stuff, but we don’t usually see much from the Knicks. Again, they strongly believe in him, so they chose to structure it in a way that benefited both parties. I’m confident he could’ve gotten 5m/yr from a number of teams.

    So let him get it from those teams. If giving Derrick Williams a player option is a sticking point in signing Derrick Williams, you don’t sign Derrick Williams. Hell, if he excelled for that theoretical other team that is willing to give him $5 million and a player option, the Knicks can just sign him next season when he becomes a free agent. Let the other team take on the risk.

  90. @93 – If the Knicks had the option I might agree with you. We might develop the player just to have him bolt because he’s got the option. If he sucks wind, he picks up the option and we take the cap hit whether we cut him or not.

    @97 – Maybe the market did determine he deserved the player option, but it does little to help the Knicks going forward.

  91. I’m not sold on Stanley. He’s 6’4″ and has a low release point on his shot. I like his character, motor and athleticism, but I think he will have trouble scoring against longer wings. Remember, summer league is essentially high-level NCAA caliber play (Kentucky ’15 would beat most of these teams.) 90% of these guys will never play a day in the NBA.

  92. Detroit’s a good spot for him. SVG is doing his own “character” remodel and Johnson definitely fits into that mold. I still would have gone with Winslow there, though. It’s not like Winslow has poor character, after all.

  93. Very true about using per game #s. I just dont think players and organizations would use per 36 when it comes to contract negotiations in this case. For him to coerce a raise he would have to clearly outperform his career avgs, and not base it on “but if you extrapolate my numbers over a full game…”. Come to think of it, it would be wise for the Knicks to already have an idea of what it would take to give him a new contract.

  94. So let him get it from those teams. If giving Derrick Williams a player option was a sticking point in signing Derrick Williams, you don’t sign Derrick Williams.

    Because Brian says so!!! Dude, your take on this matter is extremely pessimistic and not particularly reasonable. Derrick Williams just turned 24, has career numbers of 13 PER and 0.69 WS/48, and will make $5 million per season.

    Hell, if he excelled for that other team, the Knicks can just sign him next season when he becomes a free agent and not have to take on the risk.

    And you’d also get none of the benefit of having a player who excelled on your team for $5 million in a market where end of the rotation players are getting $10 million per for several years.

    @93 – If the Knicks had the option I might agree with you. We might develop the player just to have him bolt because he’s got the option. If he sucks wind, he picks up the option and we take the cap hit whether we cut him or not.

    This seems to be a very popular view. The thing is, this view considers only the two extreme cases. Most outcomes will be in the middle of the distribution. That is to say that most of the time you will either get a little more value than you paid the guy for and he opts out (when you can potentially re-sign him if it’s mutually beneficial) or you get a little less than you paid for him and he’s back at about his market value in year 2 (or you see if you can find a taker on the trade market). The changes that he wildly exceeds or calls well short of $5 million are slim.

    @97 – Maybe the market did determine he deserved the player option, but it does little to help the Knicks going forward.

    It helps them get a player they want at a price they’re willing to pay. That’s all that free agency is about.

  95. For every Derrick Williams (of known ability) you have on the roster, you lose the ability to speculate on players like Hassan Whiteside, who projected extremely well out of college and, as it turns out, is actually good at NBA basketball.

    Derrick Williams is a guy you sign for the vet minimum when you’re afraid that you don’t have a body with a pulse to put on the floor while your top 8 players are resting on either end of a blowout. Barring some “a-ha” moment, he will likely be another below-average minutes-eater with very little chance of improvement. And if he improves considerably? Opt out, cash in. Terrible signing.

    Ted, your tone is making me feel uncomfortable. Having once had such a tone, I think I come with the right perspective to offer this: relaaaaaaax.

  96. Let the other team take on the risk.

    I just don’t see the huge risk. The worst case is not that he opts in for 5M next year, but that he becomes a valuable player and asks for a contract that the knicks dont like. In that case you still had a good year of production, and are ahead of the field when it comes to re-signing him.

  97. I just dont think players and organizations would use per 36 when it comes to contract negotiations in this case.

    I think that both sides probably will use per minute, per possession, and rate stats. In their evaluations if not in the actual negotiations.

    I think that most teams use advanced analytics at this point. Many pro sports organizations are hiring ibanking and consulting veterans for this purpose.

    I also think that any agent is going to use whatever information he has to argue for his client.

    It doesn’t take an advanced understanding of stats to realize that per game stats are conditioned upon minutes played. I think that both sides are going to realize this. Whether that means not rewarding the player just because he played the exact same way in more minutes or rewarding him because he played better in the same number of minutes.

    Come to think of it, it would be wise for the Knicks to already have an idea of what it would take to give him a new contract.

    I’m quite sure that they do, and I doubt it is based on per game stats.

  98. I just don’t see the huge risk. The worst case is not that he opts in for 5M next year, but that he becomes a valuable player and asks for a contract that the knicks dont like. In that case you still had a good year of production, and are ahead of the field when it comes to re-signing him.

    Sure, it’s not a huge risk. They’ve certainly done more foolish things in the past. It’s just a pointless risk.

  99. Brian, your take is a fair take. Clearly, Phil really wanted him, enough that he didn’t want him to sign with another team and was willing to go the player option route. I agree with what Ted said: “That’s a weird take. If he plays well, they get value beyond their $5 million investment. They can then choose what they want to offer him going forward….Or, they can re-sign one or both players. Or they can trade them. There are lots of ways they can contribute.”

    The downside is the risk that they absolutely suck (like Bargnani) and opt in (like Bargnani.) That’s where the clever GMing comes in. If you think there is a high likelihood that the player will suck and be worthless, don’t sign him to any deal, it’s not worth the risk. If you are reasonably confident that the player will give you at worst close to contract-level production, at best will outperform the contract, there really isn’t much risk. They helped you for one year at a reasonable, or even cheap rate.

  100. For every Derrick Williams (of known ability) you have on the roster, you lose the ability to speculate on players like Hassan Whiteside, who projected extremely well out of college and, as it turns out, is actually good at NBA basketball.

    This assumes that teams just have no ability to differentiate between and prioritize among free agents, which sort of flies in the face of your whole stats only thing. They lose the ability to sign one guy, who has an extremely low chance of working out and who will be their last choice to offer a roster spot.

    Whiteside also took until his 5th year to work out… so he’s a weird example.

    Derrick Williams is a guy you sign for the vet minimum when you’re afraid that you don’t have a body with a pulse to put on the floor while your top 8 players are resting on either end of a blowout.

    No, he’s 24 year old who is just a bit below average.

    Ted, your tone is making me feel uncomfortable.

    Your tone is making me feel uncomfortable, as well. Please stop worrying about what other people have to say and worry about thinking through your own extreme, hardline positions. If you don’t like what I have to say, skip over my comment.

  101. Whiteside? The hothead who’s bounced around the league and blown multiple chances? It seems to me that the Heat had no chance but to play him last year. If he can get multiple chances, I dont see why Derrick Williams can’t.

    Guys, 5M is probably going to be about half the midlevel exception next year.

  102. If you think there is a high likelihood that the player will suck and be worthless, don’t sign him to any deal, it’s not worth the risk.

    This is what it comes down to. Phil REALLY believes in him. And it’s not a potentially franchise crippling deal. So I’m OK with this bet.

    Now Afflalo and Calderon…

  103. Guys, 5M is probably going to be about half the midlevel exception next year.

    Right, but they spent it this year, when $5 million is a bigger deal. This was the year to use your cap space in a meaningful way, because next year everyone is going to have cap space. This was the year to make deals like the Sixers did with the Kings or the Hawks did with the Spurs (although it sure does seem like the Hawks deal was one of those “insider” type deals due to Budz’ connection to the Spurs, so I suppose it isn’t fair to count that one as a missed opportunity). Next year those deals won’t exist because everyone will have cap space. This is not the year to just throw away $13 million on short term filler.

    Now Lopez and O’Quinn, those were fine signings. No complaints there.

  104. Sure, it’s not a huge risk. They’ve certainly done more foolish things in the past. It’s just a pointless risk.

    You are doing everything you can not to see the point. There is upside even if he plays well for a year at $5 million. That alone has value in the wins it creates and potentially the trade value he has. And if he does outperform his deal and you don’t trade him (or even if you do after a long enough period), you can also evaluate how much you want to offer to re-sign him from a place of knowing how he works with your team. Not from a place of having scouted him but not knowing how he’ll fit with your organization.

    You’re really focused on the one option year… but overall this is a short-term deal that gives the Knicks the chance to evaluate a talented young player and either move on or incorporate him long-term.

  105. For what its worth, I would’ve rather them not sign Afflalo or Williams. Or at least one but not the other. And since Williams has a higher upside and lower salary, I would’ve chosen him.

  106. can we stop arguing about whether derrick williams was a horrible signing? If you can’t see the difference between Derrick Williams at 5m and getting jeremy evans and Biyombo or some other combination of better, lower risk, higher reward players for the same price, there’s no reason to go further into it. Even if Derrick Williams develops this year it was still a bad bet

    Same goes for Afflalo

  107. Also he’s not just “a bit below average”; PER and WS both effectively punt on defense or at best conflate team defensive performance with individual defensive performance. Williams is abjectly, abysmally, absurdly horrible on the defensive end–so being at “a .069 ws/48” and whatever PER (seriously people use PER still?) actually works against you because what should be interpreted from that data set is that he’s significantly below average (.069 is significantly below average, btw) without even properly accounting for how poor his defense really is

    He’s not even a value at the vet min, but would be a not totally ridiculous signing even at 5m if there were no player option attached.

  108. Right, but they spent it this year, when $5 million is a bigger deal. This was the year to use your cap space in a meaningful way, because next year everyone is going to have cap space. This was the year to make deals like the Sixers did with the Kings. Next year those deals won’t exist because everyone will have cap space. This is not the year to just throw away $13 million on short term filler.

    So… basically… everything the Knicks do is wrong and everything that other teams do is right?

    You can’t sign players who don’t exist. And how many teams lacked cap space this year? Players were getting insane money left and right.

    You’ve decided two pretty decent NBA players are short-term filler before they play a minute in NY. That’s not an objective or particularly reasonable point of view.

  109. So… basically… everything the Knicks do is wrong and everything that other teams do is right?

    was that break you took from basketball the last 15 years or something?

  110. “Williams is abjectly, abysmally, absurdly horrible on the defensive end–so being at “a .069 ws/48? and whatever PER (seriously people use PER still?) actually works against you because what should be interpreted from that data set is that he’s significantly below average (.069 is significantly below average, btw) without even properly accounting for how poor his defense really is”

    Coincidentally, LaMarcus Aldridge has a career playoff ws48 of .069. Still waiting for a better answer, THCJ.

  111. Alecto, your comments are of almost no value. You are referring to a dataset that you have not provided any details about. Instead of telling other people how stupid they are, how about spending two minutes to make a coherent argument that is based on evidence rather than your unsubstantiated say so?

  112. was that break you took from basketball the last 15 years or something?

    What is it that’s wrong with you, exactly? Why do you feel the need to make condescending comments with no substance to them whatsoever?

  113. Coincidentally, LaMarcus Aldridge has a career playoff ws48 of .069. Still waiting for a better answer, THCJ.

    Career playoff ws48 seems to be a pretty small sample size issue, no? He’s a career .145 ws48 player, which is very good. And he is coming off a .165 season, which is also quite good. For instance, had they signed Melo to the same deal, I would have thought it would have made a lot of sense for the Spurs, as well. Melo made a lot of sense last year for Houston and Chicago and he would have made just as much sense for the Spurs. Aldridge is a very Melo-esque player. There’s certainly need for those types of players in certain environments.

  114. I don’t think it’s inconsistent to say that Aldridge may be solidly better in the spurs system–elite coaches have shown to materially affect a team’s wins, likely by improving player performance on the floor and by proper minutes allocation. Pop is certainly in the elite of elite coaches. Furthermore, their system is something that favors aldridge (motion offense that favors taking the open shot–including long 2’s); if you can reduce aldridges contested midrange percentage and increase his number of open long 2’s you’ll see a big uptick in his quality of play. His midrange game also creates more space to operate. that’s what I imagine the logic behind the aldridge signing to be. Also, don’t use playoffs WS, that sample is wayyyyyy too small.

    Is that worth giving up Splitter and CoJo? I don’t think so, but it’s not a particularly bad bet by the Spurs.

  115. What is it that’s wrong with you, exactly? Why do you feel the need to make condescending comments with no substance to them whatsoever?

    oh come on, a little smarm never hurt anyone. Sorry for offending you though.

  116. Is anyone concerned about our team speed? I was pretty worried last year in fearing that we would be too slow to defend in transition, and well…

    Melo is slow. Robin is slow. Calderon is slow. O’Quinn seems slow. Afflalo? Grant? Zinger? Williams? Galloway?

    I’m guessing that team speed is gonna be a huge problem vs. teams like the Bucks and Wizards.

  117. oh come on, a little smarm never hurt anyone. Sorry for offending you though.

    I have no idea what a smarm is, but I know that you keep making rude comments with no substance. You allude to stats that you don’t actually offer up. You have just made a long comment about how a player might improve by taking more open shots and fewer contested shots (that is basically the essence of team basketball on the offensive side).

    Try actually saying something of value, especially if you’re going to be an asshole to other people.

  118. While he’s not lived up to his talent, his career NBA numbers are a PER of 13 and a WS/48 of 0.69.

    Even if we agree with your (implied) argument that these two stats are the best way to evaluate players (and I sure as hell do not, for the record), there were still better options assuming we had to spend the money (I wish we didn’t necessarily have to, but that was pretty clearly the plan).

    Ed Davis has a career PER of 17 and WS/48 of .140. He’ll be getting about $1.5 million more per season than Williams.

    Biyombo has a career PER of 12, but is coming off a 15.2 year, and a career WS/48 of .074. He’ll be making $2 million less per season than Williams.

    Jeremy Evans has a career PER of 18 and a career WS/48 of .154. He’ll be making the minimum.

    These were just examples off the top of my head. I feel a little bit stupid for even engaging in an argument in which PER and WS/48 are used as primary determinants of value, but there you go.

  119. I think CoJo is on the verge of a breakout, but Patty Mills is no slouch when he’s healthy and is ridiculously cheap. If Pop can improve LaMarcus a little bit the Spurs should be really good. Its a reasonable gamble

  120. Even if we rock with your (implied) argument that these two stats are the best way to evaluate players (and I sure as hell do not, for the record)

    Then offer a better way instead of just being a prick.

    there were still better options assuming we had to spend the money (I wish we didn’t necessarily have to, but that was pretty clearly the plan).

    You seem to be confusing past production and future production. You’re also pointing out marginal differences in both the stats you’re using and money with no regard at all to fit.

    I don’t even particularly care for the Derrick Williams signing. The reaction on here is just so weird.

    These were just examples off the top of my head. I feel a little bit stupid for even engaging in an argument in which PER and WS/48 are used as primary determinants of value, but there you go.

    They are quick and convenient measures that are readily available. Why not offer a different stat instead of being a raging asshole?

  121. This assumes that teams just have no ability to differentiate between and prioritize among free agents, which sort of flies in the face of … chance of working out and who will be their last choice to offer a roster spot.

    There is nothing unreasonable about the assumption that many NBA teams have no idea what they’re doing re: market evaluation. And yes, I believe you restated my point, which is that it’s a good thing to have one additional roster slot to sign a player who could be a high-value producer, rather than have a player who has demonstrated himself to be below-average over several thousand minutes of play.

    http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/players/298-hassan-whiteside

    It feels like you meant his fifth year out of college. According to some stats on the internet, he played 2 minutes his first season, 109 his second, and then, after two years of no NBA minutes whatsoever, he became a one-man wrecking crew. But truly, yes, okay, sure Ted.

    ¯\_(?)_/¯

    Your tone is making me feel uncomfortable, as well. Please stop worrying about what other people have to say and worry about thinking through your own extreme, hardline positions. If you don’t like what I have to say, skip over my comment.

    I am sorry my neutral tone is making you feel uncomfortable. I should clarify that I do not worry about what you have to say, but I wish for others to feel that Knickerblogger is a welcoming place, unless you are named “ruruland,” in which case you can surely be quiet and never return until you admit that Carmelo Anthony is not that good at basketball. Or something like it.

    I believe my positions to be neither extreme nor hardline, particularly in this thread, in which I throw my hands up (“¯\_(?)_/¯”) and say that I trust the Spurs’ front office’s judgment more than I trust my reasonable trust in Wins Produced, which says that LaMarcus Aldridge is not a superstar.

  122. Alecto, your comments are of almost no value. You are referring to a dataset that you have not provided any details about. Instead of telling other people how stupid they are, how about spending two minutes to make a coherent argument that is based on evidence rather than your unsubstantiated say so?

    Uh, I’m not the one fundamentally misunderstanding the exceedingly simple concept that there were better players for less or equal money who were likely willing to play in NY–enough players that claiming “we don’t know” isn’t really a defense for phil…how can the derrick williams signing not be construed as wildly suboptimal? give me one reason to think that he should’ve been signed over biyombo, jeremy evans, john jenkins, anyone notable fa worth even half his value? Tell me that williams is a good bet, and that we’re not relying on what is a frankly improbable improvement? Do you really demand of me to pull up the stats on biyombo and evans and other available free agents for me to thoroughly convince you that this signing was moronic? Because any relatively impartial observer with even a hint of electrical activity on their EEG would think that this signing was bad to horrible relative to their other options (no offense to z man)

    Here’s derrick williams’ pristine defensive tracking stats for last season:
    http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202682/tracking/defense/
    career drtg of 108, and a drtg of 112 last year
    career dbpm of -1.4 and last year was a -2.7

    Do i need to go on?

    I’ll feel free to be an asshole when you’re making dumb arguments that are wasting everyone’s time and accusing everyone who disagrees with you of close mindedness. with how little you actually engage with very basic concepts such as opportunity cost, it’s almost as if you’re arguing in bad faith! do whatever “suites” you though i guess.

  123. Whoa, I really wasn’t trying to be a “raging asshole” in that post. Just pointing out that even if we use your narrowly defined parameters of what makes a player valuable, Derrick Williams was still a fuckin’ shitty way to spend that money. No regard to fit? Dude, in what way does Derrick Williams “fit”? He hasn’t been demonstrably above average at ANYTHING in the NBA.

    Now, crazier things have happened than Derrick Williams going from mediocre at best to productive after 6600 minutes. If you want to say that there’s a nonzero chance Derrick Williams is good to have next season, then yeah sure. But A) the player option more or less mitigates that entire argument and B) a much better bet is, say, Jeremy Evans CONTINUING to be productive at a much cheaper price.

  124. My comment re: Aldridge is specially crafted for THCJ, but more generally, why do the Spurs get a pass on this deal from the same people that would crucify Jackson for if he made the same exact deal? I have no problem with the deal, but then again, I haven’t taken an absolutist view towards advanced stats (one in particular) for the last bunch of years.

    Could it be that Pop and Buford realize that they couldn’t get a critical win in game 82 vs. a lesser team, and then couldn’t get past a flawed team with their best player playing on one leg in a first round playoff series, and are starting to panic a bit? Or that Pop doesn’t give a shit about the team’s future since he’s out of there as soon as Duncan retires?

  125. What return, though? Some unknown return that you’ve not even attempting to show…

    You’re also not really talking about opportunity cost. These deals were made before free agency. The Knicks didn’t know exactly who they could sign at the time. You’re playing a hindsight game.

    You haven’t really been around much, but this has been discussed a whole lot over the past year, so I’ll invite you to explore the archives (where you’ll also see that I’ve been making this argument all along). Here’s where you can start:

    http://knickerblogger.net/breaking-knicks-trade-shump-j-r-for-second-rounder/

    Afflalo is 29 and shooters can age fairly gracefully.

    They can, but not Afflalo. He’s been declining for a while.

    Derrick Williams just turned 24, has career numbers of 13 PER and 0.69 WS/48

    Of the 4 #2 pick tweener forward busts of 2006-2012 (Marvin Williams, Beasley, Turner, and Reggie Williams), Reggie was the worst of the 4 over his first four seasons. None of the others went on to be a positive value for any team they played for. Evan Turner is the second worst, and his contract from the Celtics was $6.6 over 2 years with no player option. Beasley was deservedly playing for just over the minimum when he turned 25. Marvin Williams got paid, but never got good.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&y1=2015&p1=willide02&y2=2014&p2=turneev01&y3=2009&p3=willima02&y4=2012&p4=beaslmi01&p5=&p6=

  126. There is nothing unreasonable about the assumption that many NBA teams have no idea what they’re doing re: market evaluation.

    There is something extremely unreasonable about pretending that one roster spot is at all likely to find you the next Hassan Whiteside. (And, no, I meant his fifth year on Jupiter…)

    The point that I made (and you seemed to miss) is that teams will prioritize the allocation of their roster spots. If they have 2 open spots vs. 3 (cap space equal), the guy they lose out on is going to be the guy they least valued. For your comment to make any sense, teams have to be so incredibly stupid and/or player success so randomly distributed that every player a team signs has near equal probability of NBA success. That’s a really weird view point, or an illogical point.

    According to some stats on the internet, he played 2 minutes his first season, 109 his second, and then, after two years of no NBA minutes whatsoever, he became a one-man wrecking crew. But truly, yes, okay, sure Ted.

    So, what exactly do you think the odds that any one open, 15th roster spot turns into a guy that goes from being out of the NBA to a “one-man wrecking crew?”

    I am sorry my neutral tone is making you feel uncomfortable.

    Your tone is anything but neutral.

    I believe my positions to be neither extreme nor hardline

    Your argument is that teams should not sign promising young free agents in case they happen to find a guy who takes 5 years to develop into an NBA player after having played in Lebanon and China… If that is not extreme… If Derrick Williams hadn’t played in the NBA and was coming over from the great Lebanese league, would you support the signing then?

  127. My comment re: Aldridge is specially crafted for THCJ, but more generally, why do the Spurs get a pass on this deal from the same people that would crucify Jackson for if he made the same exact deal? I have no problem with the deal, but then again, I haven’t taken an absolutist view towards advanced stats (one in particular) for the last bunch of years.

    When a Phil Jackson-led front office leads a team to 50+ wins for about two decades and five championships, I promise to give him the same kind of pass.

  128. My comment re: Aldridge is specially crafted for THCJ, but more generally, why do the Spurs get a pass on this deal from the same people that would crucify Jackson for if he made the same exact deal? I have no problem with the deal, but then again, I haven’t taken an absolutist view towards advanced stats (one in particular) for the last bunch of years.

    Could it be that Pop and Buford realize that they couldn’t get a critical win in game 82 vs. a lesser team at home, and then couldn’t get past a flawed team with their best player playing on one leg in a first round playoff series, and are starting to panic a bit? Or that Pop doesn’t give a shit about the team’s future since he’s out of there as soon as Duncan retires?

    well i think aldridge signing in ny and aldridge signing in san antonio is disanalogous enough that they’re not useful to compare. Popovich and his coaching staff have a proven track record of making players better–the knicks have derek fisher. And again (I know this is for THCJ), but I don’t think it was an optimal signing. But the logic and reasoning behind it would likely be far more justifiable than if he signed with the knicks. Aldridge likely fits well within the spurs system and he wouldnt with the knicks (despite the triangle) because of our personnel (melo, kristaps, etc.). Perhaps the spurs believe that they’re “one piece away” which, while kinda dumb to me, I’ll give them a pass since they’re the spurs. That may be a double standard, but if there’s anyone who qualifies for special argumentative treatment, it’s Pop, Buford, et al.

    That’s what I’m thinking off the top of my head, at least.

  129. Your argument is that teams should not sign promising young free agents in case they happen to find a guy who takes 5 years to develop into an NBA player after having played in Lebanon and China… If that is not extreme… If Derrick Williams hadn’t played in the NBA and was coming over from the great Lebanese league, would you support the signing then?

    This is such a distortion of the argument he’s making. Based on Derrick Williams’ first 6600 minutes in the NBA, he’s anything but “promising”. Therefore a player like Whiteside (or in this case Evans, for example) who was productive in college and has yet to receive a chance in the NBA makes more sense to take a flier on, regardless of what they may or may not have done in the Lebanese league. Especially when they’re actually cheaper! What is it that’s being missed?

  130. Arron Afflalo hasn’t been declining for a shooter as awhile. In 2013/14 he played 2552 minutes (career high), 42.7% from 3 (2nd highest mark of his career) and 57.4 TS% on a career high 23.3 USG%. Those are solid clips and he’s 1 year removed from that. I don’t think it’s crazy to think last year was the outlier and that age 29 his contract is good value for the Knicks. I’ll be very surprised if Afflalo doesn’t have a bounce back year and opts out of his contract next summer when the cap jumps to $90m.

  131. Ted nelson being willfully obtuse nothing to see here

    in before a comment about “tone” and “proper internet etiquette”

  132. Alecto, again you have said nothing. You have only told me your opinion, and have not supported it with a single shred of evidence. Your premise is basically that I am an idiot so I should believe you. That is not a real argument. Keep trying.

    Just pointing out that even if we use your narrowly defined parameters of what makes a player valuable, Derrick Williams was still a fuckin’ shitty way to spend that money.

    No, you are jumping to the conclusion that because I used the most easily available and widely used summary stats I was saying those are what makes a player valuable. I was throwing out some stats to say that the guy isn’t as bad as some people are pretending. Literally not one person has yet to reply with a single stat in any sort of context to show my why he is so terrible. If you have such stats, please share them instead of just pretending that everyone should know about them.

    And you didn’t show that at all. You showed guys who play different positions, have marginally different stats, and make marginally different amounts of money.

    No regard to fit? Dude, in what way does Derrick Williams “fit”? He hasn’t been demonstrably above average at ANYTHING in the NBA.

    If he was above average, he would not be making $5 million per for a max of two years. Iman Shumpert just got like $40 million or something.

    A) the player option more or less mitigates that entire argument and B) a much better bet is, say, Jeremy Evans CONTINUING to be productive at a much cheaper price.

    No one is asking him to be all that good. Just better than $5 million.

    The option has little to do with that.

    The Knicks could sign Williams and Evans, so I don’t know why you’re creating this false trade-off. He’s also one player you expect to be able to do something he’s never done before.

  133. “(no offense to z man)”

    Alecto, I was consistently on the record here denouncing the signing on its face, not because of the amount or the player option, but because I don’t believe in Derrick Willams, at any price. I just don’t think it’s that big of a deal, and am willing to defer to Jackson’s judgement (which I think has been pretty good so far, unlike many others here.) the same way that THCJ deferred to Buford’s judgment on the Aldridge for Splitter and Joseph trade-off. Jackson has 13 rings, he knows something about personnel, and his rookie-GM blunders thus far have been very recoverable.

    The bottom line for me is that the team is going to be so much more rootable next year than it has been in a long time (save for a couple of unsustainable weeks of Linsanity.) It took a year for Jackson to clean house, without making Isiah-like cap-killing decisions or even unloading picks to clear cap space only to cowtow to Dolan the way Walsh did. The Spurs don’t hit a home run every time, they just make way more good decisions than bad ones. Same with the Rockets (don’t get me started on the Lin contract!) Phil’s on the right track, and nit-picking about Afflalo and Williams is not something I feel is necessary.

  134. This is such a distortion of the argument he’s making. Based on Derrick Williams’ first 6600 minutes in the NBA, he’s anything but “promising”. Therefore a player like Whiteside (or in this case Evans, for example) who was productive in college and has yet to receive a chance in the NBA makes more sense to take a flier on, regardless of what they may or may not have done in the Lebanese league. Especially when they’re actually cheaper! What is it that’s being missed?

    Apparently you are missing everything that I said…

    Derrick Williams did not prevent the Knicks from signing your guy Evans: they could have signed both. Nor is it assured that Evans can be a productive player over 82 games playing heavy minutes (very, very, very few minimum, non-guaranteed guys turn into Whiteside… it’s a distortion to pretend that Williams costs you Whiteside… he costs you like a 1% chance at Whiteside, and even Whiteside is unproven over any sort of meaningful sample).

    The point I made, is that teams prioritize how they use their roster spots. If three open spots turn into two open spots, they don’t just select among the three candidates they were about to sign to fill those spots at random. The marginal roster spot is going to cost a team the marginal free agent… i.e. last on their list.

    And Derrick Williams is absolutely promising. You have to have your hand buried in the sand not to realize that there’s promise there.

  135. The general tone here has gone from argumentative to hostile again. Jeeze, there are better things to fight about. Let’s get back to arguing.

    I need to be convinced by Williams, with his play, that he’s not a dud. I’m not as much of a stat geek as others here. I lean heavily on what I see in film and what coaches do and say about their player. Here’s what George Karl had to say on April 5th:

    “You shouldn’t be playing 20 minutes a night and not getting a rebound. A coke machine can get a rebound in 20 minutes.”

    There’s no scenario, be he the next coming of LeBron or the next coming of Eddie Curry or anything in between, which makes me believe this was a good signing…(Well, maybe the LeBron think, if he leads the team to the title…but we’re being relistic, right?)

  136. No, you are jumping to the conclusion that because I used the most easily available and widely used summary stats I was saying those are what makes a player valuable. I was throwing out some stats to say that the guy isn’t as bad as some people are pretending. Literally not one person has yet to reply with a single stat in any sort of context to show my why he is so terrible. If you have such stats, please share them instead of just pretending that everyone should know about them.

    And you didn’t show that at all. You showed guys who play different positions, have marginally different stats, and make marginally different amounts of money.

    Well if you’re genuinely curious, I’m someone who believes Wins Produced does a better job of capturing productivity than either of those two (though I’m generally adverse to all-encompassing metrics when it comes to basketball players). It’s truly irrelevant though, because there’s not a single statistic that says Derrick Williams is good value at the price we’re paying.

    As for comparing guys who play different positions, it’s difficult to ascertain what position Williams plays because he’s kind of bad at everything. He doesn’t do the things small forwards are supposed to do well and doesn’t do the things power forwards are supposed to do well. Position-less basketball, baby!

    The Knicks could sign Williams and Evans, so I don’t know why you’re creating this false trade-off. He’s also one player you expect to be able to do something he’s never done before.

    No they can’t sign Williams and Evans, because Evans signed with the Mavs for the minimum. Feels kind of like when we used our full MMLE on Jason Smith and they signed Aminu to the minimum.

  137. And Derrick Williams is absolutely promising. You have to have your hand buried in the sand not to realize that there’s promise there.

    Did you have your head buried in the sand during his first 6,600 NBA minutes? If you want to say Evans doesn’t count because he was a minimum signing, you can look at Joseph, Aminu, Davis, Biyombo, and more who are making similar amounts to Williams while not making the minimum.

  138. But the logic and reasoning behind it would likely be far more justifiable than if he signed with the knicks.

    When a Phil Jackson-led front office leads a team to 50+ wins for about two decades and five championships, I promise to give him the same kind of pass.

    Listen, I have the utmost respect for the Spurs (and don’t think that the Aldridge move was a bad one at all)… but a blind appeal to authority from the two know-it-alls?

    You guys have a lot to learn.

  139. Williams is promising? He’s got a chance to be okay. . .but he’s 24 and hasn’t done much in his career. If he improves substantially on both ends he’s what-averagish? That would be excellent for 5 million, but its not likely and not really that promising.

    I think he’ll be better than Tim Hardaway, which will make the Knicks better, but that’s a low bar

  140. @126 – we are short on athleticism… that’s especially true if calderon and derrick williams get major minutes… that’s why our rookies hold the keys to the season… if they perform well… it will not only help us make the playoffs next season… it will harbor very good things for our future….

    if they are busts… all this talk about our free agents is not going to matter… it will set us back another 3 years .. lopez and melo will be traded… and we’ll be talking about the #4 pick at the 2017 draft with isiah back at the helm…

  141. @Z-man

    Agreed. People want to portray Phil like some total idiot that’s in over his head. Meanwhile he’s ripping off Budenholzer to the tune of the No. 19 pick at the cost of a horrible rotation player that he inherited whom people were openly wondering about being the worst player in the league.

    Then on top of that he totally works over Hennigan in the Kyle O’Quinn deal to nab a promising young big who was restricted on a basic minimum level contract moving forward under the new cap and exchanged swap rights for a 2019 second and cash to do it.

    I’m positive I, like many others, thought neither of those moves was possible when they happened, but it did and Phil was largely responsible for them.

    Lopez is a completely fair value contract at a position of need as well.

    Are player options for Afflalo and Williams ideal? Hell no, especially on Williams, but these are not franchise killing moves and he’s not mortgaging the future to do any of it unless we consider trading away the 2020 and 2021 second rounders for the 35th pick and grabbing Hernangomez a killing the future type move.

  142. It’s truly irrelevant though, because there’s not a single statistic that says Derrick Williams is good value at the price we’re paying.

    I have shown you two mainstream stats that I think do show that he’s a good value at $5 million, and you have done next to nothing to rebut that argument.

    As for comparing guys who play different positions, it’s difficult to ascertain what position Williams plays because he’s kind of bad at everything.

    You’re missing the forest for the trees. The point is that your comparisons were arbitrary and your conclusion unconvincing.

    Also… scoring is a skill, no matter what Berri tells you.

    No they can’t sign Williams and Evans, because Evans signed with the Mavs for the minimum.

    The Knicks could still have signed Evans. And Evans is a boogeyman you made up. We were talking about Hassan Whiteside until you brought up Evans.

    If you want to say Evans doesn’t count because he was a minimum signing, you can look at Joseph, Aminu, Davis, Biyombo, and more who are making similar amounts to Williams while not making the minimum.

    What are you talking about? You butted into a conversation where we were specifically talking about signing players for the minimum.

  143. Williams is promising? He’s got a chance to be okay. . .but he’s 24 and hasn’t done much in his career.

    Where are you setting the bar? This is $5 million per in a league where any solid rotation player is getting ~$10 million per.

    Williams has absolutely done some things in his career. He’s underachieved for his draft position, but if he were a lower draft position or had stayed in school 4 years… he’d absolutely still be considered promising.

  144. Average salary in the NBA was $4.9 million last year. Yes, it will be higher this year (and even higher next year), but $5 mil is the salary the average player is making and D Williams is not even close to average by any measure.

  145. I have shown you two mainstream stats that I think do show that he’s a good value at $5 million, and you have done next to nothing to rebut that argument.

    Using those same mainstream stats, I showed you three players making either a similar amount of money or less.

    You’re missing the forest for the trees. The point is that your comparisons were arbitrary and your conclusion unconvincing.

    Also… scoring is a skill, no matter what Berri tells you.

    Scoring is a skill, and one Derrick Williams has not demonstrated he possesses.

    What are you talking about? You butted into a conversation where we were specifically talking about signing players for the minimum.

    To clarify, there are two types of players who would’ve made more sense than Derrick Williams. The Davis, Aminu’s, Biyombo’s, and Joseph’s of the world who Williams’ signing DID preclude us from, and minimum guys like Evans, Khem Birch, Willie Reed, etc. who haven’t yet demonstrated that they’re mediocre at best, as Williams has. Williams’ signing didn’t necessarily preclude us from signing someone from the second group, but did take away both a roster spot and potential playing time for them.

  146. Williams WS/48 by year:

    .059
    .076
    .068
    .069

    That’s not a promising trend line,is it? For 5 million,its not bad, but we clearly could have done better. Afflalo is more of the same. Best case he’s average.

  147. My current feelings about what Phil has done…
    Drafting Porzingas: (B) There’s work to be done. Lots of potential, he needs strong, fundamental coaching.
    Trading Hardaway for the rights to draft Grant: (A) I just love this.
    Drafting trading 2 future 2nd rounders for Hernangómez: (B) At worst a backup plan for KP.
    Signing Lopez (B): I liked him better than Monroe. I can’t say an A because that would be LMA. Still, this is really good value that fills a need.
    Signing Aflallo: (B-): Be thankful. We could’ve given JR the same loot.
    Signing O’Quinn (A): This is the type of player I want on this team. The maneuver to make the trade was awesome too.
    Signing Williams (D): I want to be wrong about him but even if he does well, the Knicks did not position themselves for the long game.

  148. Ted, I am glad someone is taking a contrary position on Williams – not even THAT contrary, just saying that it isn’t stupid – but you are off about the tone people are exhibiting. Alecto was joking about you being away; Jowles is being neutral not only in relation to how he used to express himself but for any normal poster. You have used terms like “asshole” and “prick” in your responses, but they have not used that language. Feel free to express yourself how you’d like, but as an observer who’s been called an idiot by Jowles before, I have to say that you are coming off as harsh, not him, and not Alecto, who again, was joking.

    #2 picks Hasheem Thabeet, Michael Beasley, Darko Milicic, Marvin Williams, Stromile Swift, and Evan Turner were all 24 once. 25 was a magical age for exactly none of them.

    Actually, I think it was pretty magical that most of them were still getting paid seven figure salaries despite having demonstrated they did not deserve them. Magical!

  149. By the way, to clarify, while I am glad Ted took a contrary position on Williams, I myself am not. Not a crippling move, but indicative of Phil’s flaws in the same way trades for Curry and Z-Bo were indicative of Isiah’s flaws.

    Afflalo is more of the same. Best case he’s average.

    I was really anti-Afflalo, but that was when I thought he’d get a Shumpert-like contract. Two years for $16m is pretty meh. Don’t love it, don’t hate, let’s all tread water.

  150. This is such a distortion of the argument he’s making. Based on Derrick Williams’ first 6600 minutes in the NBA, he’s anything but “promising”. Therefore a player like Whiteside (or in this case Evans, for example) who was productive in college and has yet to receive a chance in the NBA makes more sense to take a flier on, regardless of what they may or may not have done in the Lebanese league. Especially when they’re actually cheaper! What is it that’s being missed?

    This is exactly the point I’m making. Whiteside played 111 minutes in the league before being shipped off overseas. I highly doubt that he went from a negative producer to quite literally one of the best players in the league (on a per-minute basis) because of those years of “development.” He’s always been good. Maybe he would have been a lesser player when he was a rookie, but that’s not the point we’re arguing here.

    And Z-man, I don’t think that Aldridge is going to suddenly become a superstar. He assuredly has never been one so far in his career, despite his stellar scoring volume. I do not know what Buford and Popovich are thinking, but they are the only front office in the league that I have no criticisms for. Not even Kyle Anderson, who I hope will never again shoot ~39% TS, god willing.

    Listen, I have the utmost respect for the Spurs (and don’t think that the Aldridge move was a bad one at all)… but a blind appeal to authority from the two know-it-alls?

    You guys have a lot to learn.

    O, get thee to a nunnery.

  151. He’s underachieved for his draft position, but if he were a lower draft position or had stayed in school 4 years… he’d absolutely still be considered promising.

    It’s also possible that he, like many lottery picks, stays in the league because of his high draft position and that it is his perception as a great prospect for coming out early that makes him an “upside” player, despite four less-than-mediocre seasons totaling over six thousand minutes played. I don’t know what else you want if not more quasi-anonymous text that you can pinch the bridge of your nose and huff loudly to.

  152. Looking back, I was on the wrong side of the Bargnani argument, but there was a lot more at stake (twice the money vs. a smaller cap plus major assets given up.) In that case, I bought into: “well, Blatche turned it around in a new situation, why can’t Bargnani? It’s not a horrible gamble! But not even Phil/Derek could coach him up, despite initial optimism of him being a “surprise, and a pleasant one!”

    What I learned is that when thousands of minutes yield roughly the same results, the problem is usually between the ears. Williams has shown that he doesn’t really understand how to play NBA basketball at a high level, and probably never will.

    The key word here is “probably.” He IS super-athletic for a 3, and probably could be coached up a bit (Jowles, you were the one who hated on Karl for not using Faried early on, right?) The likelihood is that he will continue to be the bust he has been, but it is not a Bargnani-level blunder in terms of percentage of cap, assets squandered or opportunity cost. So, whatever.

    The real question is: if he plays poorly for the first 20 games, will he continue to play or will his minutes be given to a more productive player?

  153. Re: league average salary: not really fair to say that he’s getting overpaid because he’s a below average player making the league average salary. A very significant number of NBA players are end-of-bench vet’s minimum guys. What will the average rotation player make next year. If Williams becomes a mediocre but serviceable rotation player then he will be getting paid about what he should be paid, if not less. For reference, Shump has a lower PER and WS48 (but higher VORP and WP48) and makes double that amount after 4 years of lousy production.

  154. Average salary in the NBA was $4.9 million last year. Yes, it will be higher this year (and even higher next year), but $5 mil is the salary the average player is making and D Williams is not even close to average by any measure.

    That figure is distorted by rookie salaries (acquired largely through a totally non-competitive process) and end-of-the-bench players. It’s not particularly useful in evaluating a free agent move for what will hopefully be a rotation player, and in fact probably shows that DW is being paid a below average wage relative to his peers.

    Using those same mainstream stats, I showed you three players making either a similar amount of money or less.

    But you didn’t show me that they are particularly better than DW…

    Scoring is a skill, and one Derrick Williams has not demonstrated he possesses.

    He pretty much has. He’s not a great scorer, but he’s a solid NBA scorer. He has an average usage rate and his TS% has trended up towards totally respectable despite terrible shot selection (1/3 3 pters). This is a $5 million signing, you’re not getting Kevin Durant.

    haven’t yet demonstrated that they’re mediocre at best, as Williams has

    Yes, no NBA player has ever improved after turning 24. Never.

  155. That’s not a promising trend line,is it? For 5 million,its not bad, but we clearly could have done better.

    The issue with averages is that they mask trends. So, in looking at an all-encompassing stat used to assess average production, we might be missing that Williams became a better scorer while his rebounding fell off due to a change in role rather than skill.

    You have used terms like “asshole” and “prick” in your responses, but they have not used that language.

    My tone is certainly not great, but at the same time word choice and tone aren’t exactly the same thing. I would say, for example, that “you’re really using that stat?” is a much less productive tone than “you’re being an asshole.” One is meant to belittle and stunt conversation, the other is meant to promote pro-social behavior.

    Not a crippling move, but indicative of Phil’s flaws

    Which flaws are those? (I love how everyone already believes they know exactly how this move will turn out…)

    I highly doubt that he went from a negative producer to quite literally one of the best players in the league (on a per-minute basis) because of those years of “development.” He’s always been good.

    Right… there’s no such thing as personal and professional development. Basketball players are basically robots…

    It’s also possible that he, like many lottery picks, stays in the league because of his high draft position and that it is his perception as a great prospect for coming out early that makes him an “upside” player, despite four less-than-mediocre seasons totaling over six thousand minutes played.

    You realize that not all players in the NBA can be above average right? That for there to be an average there have to be players above and below it?

  156. “Ed Davis has a career PER of 17 and WS/48 of .140. He’ll be getting about $1.5 million more per season than Williams.

    Biyombo has a career PER of 12, but is coming off a 15.2 year, and a career WS/48 of .074. He’ll be making $2 million less per season than Williams.
    Jeremy Evans has a career PER of 18 and a career WS/48 of .154. He’ll be making the minimum.
    These were just examples off the top of my head. I feel a little bit stupid for even engaging in an argument in which PER and WS/48 are used as primary determinants of value, but there you go.”

    I read this upthread I am a little stumped. Should we change the name of the board to “I made up my mind and will just keep repeating my talking points in response to everything posted.”

  157. What I learned is that when thousands of minutes yield roughly the same results, the problem is usually between the ears. Williams has shown that he doesn’t really understand how to play NBA basketball at a high level, and probably never will.

    Thing is that the same results haven’t been that bad. Nor have they really been the same: they’ve been the same in aggregate, but there are significant differences when you dis-aggregate them. In a sport like baseball where the job is roughly the same on every team, stats are going to remain fairly constantly representative of performance. In basketball, though, roles vary widely. If a young guy’s rebound-rate goes from 13 to 8, for example, it’s more likely that his role changed than it is that he just stopped rebounding as well as he used to.

    DW’s also played half as many NBA minutes and is four years younger than Bargnani when he came to NY. I’m not sure that I would just apply what you learned from one player to every other player. That’s using a sample of one. I don’t think players generally change that much, but some do improve and some fit different systems better than others.

    While I’m not expecting DW to suddenly break-out, “between-the-ears” can actually be a better problem in some cases than skill-set. It can be a worse problem, as well. It’s all specific to the player. Not at all saying the Knicks know what they’re doing, but we have to at least remain open to the possibility that having actually spoken to DW before they have useful information that we don’t.

  158. People seem to be missing the subtleties in Ted Nelson’s arguments and instead of engaging with those arguments revert back to offering judgments without justifications.

  159. But you didn’t show me that they are particularly better than DW…

    So those stats are good enough for you to make the case that Williams is a decent player, but when they show that other players are better, in some cases significantly so, they are irrelevant.

    He pretty much has. He’s not a great scorer, but he’s a solid NBA scorer. He has an average usage rate and his TS% has trended up towards totally respectable despite terrible shot selection (1/3 3 pters). This is a $5 million signing, you’re not getting Kevin Durant.

    His TS% has trended all the way up to around average, while everything else about his statistical profile is pretty bleak. Since you accused me of not taking into account fit earlier, does an average efficiency, low usage scorer really “fit” well with Carmelo Anthony?

    Yes, no NBA player has ever improved after turning 24. Never.

    I said it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Williams to be productive next season. Since he hasn’t done so in his first 6,600 minutes, hoping that he does so is a gamble. Why not take a much smaller gamble on a similarly priced or cheaper player continuing to be productive instead of hoping Williams becomes productive?

  160. That figure is distorted by rookie salaries (acquired largely through a totally non-competitive process) and end-of-the-bench players. It’s not particularly useful in evaluating a free agent move for what will hopefully be a rotation player,

    Well, the average salary is similarly distorted when an average player makes $129,000,000 over 5 years, no?

    I don’t see how you can say: “I have shown you two mainstream stats that I think do show that he’s a good value at $5 million, and you have done next to nothing to rebut that argument,” and then turn around a try to disqualify the extremely objective stat of average salary.

    And then you go and make statements like: “This is $5 million per in a league where any solid rotation player is getting ~$10 million per,” offering only Iman Shumpert, who played major minutes on a finals team, as your only example. Whereas in this same thread I posted earlier the comp on Evan Turner. He was a #2 pick. A SF. He played almost identically poorly his first 4 years. He got a contract one year ago for $6.6 million over 2 years with no option. Evan Turner at least has a skill that stands out as good: he can be a competent playmaker at the NBA level. Williams has proved nothing, yet stands to make 35% more and have a player option.

    I remember you as being opinionated, and always liked your rhetorical energy, but I really think you are arguing this to be contrarian more than because you actually believe Reggie Williams to be worth this contract.

  161. People seem to be missing the subtleties in Ted Nelson’s arguments and instead of engaging with those arguments revert back to offering judgments without justifications.

    I realize that I could phrase things in a better way, but it’s truly amazing to me how closed minded many people on this board are… (And given many of the responses, I think it might be a matter of missing, as you said, the subtleties rather than overlooking them to argue.)

  162. So those stats are good enough for you to make the case that Williams is a decent player, but when they show that other players are better, in some cases significantly so, they are irrelevant.

    Is that what I said? I thought that what I said is that you showed marginal differences in those stats for marginally different amounts of money with no regard for future projection or fit, which does not conclusively show which player was a better option.

    His TS% has trended all the way up to around average, while everything else about his statistical profile is pretty bleak.

    Was that comment about scoring ability? I thought it was about scoring ability, not overall play…

    Since you accused me of not taking into account fit earlier, does an average efficiency, low usage scorer really “fit” well with Carmelo Anthony?

    That’s a totally unanswerable question. How does this guy score? What else does this guy do? (And who is this guy? DW is not low-usage.)

    I said it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Williams to be productive next season. Since he hasn’t done so in his first 6,600 minutes, hoping that he does so is a gamble.

    Every single player acquisition is a gamble. You have done nothing whatsoever to show the risk or expected pay-off of any of these players. You’ve looked historical stats and made subjective arguments for who is better.

    Why not take a much smaller gamble on a similarly priced or cheaper player continuing to be productive instead of hoping Williams becomes productive?

    Clearly the Knicks think Williams will give them more value going forward. If you’d like to argue otherwise, you can. You’re not making a convincing argument, though.

  163. Well, the average salary is similarly distorted when an average player makes $129,000,000 over 5 years, no?

    I don’t follow what you’re saying at all. That is not a market distortion. It is a single bad decision or bad luck for one team. In fact, the only distortion there is the cap on salaries. Many great players would be making MORE money if there were no max.

    I don’t see how you can say: “I have shown you two mainstream stats that I think do show that he’s a good value at $5 million, and you have done next to nothing to rebut that argument,” and then turn around a try to disqualify the extremely objective stat of average salary.

    Objective and valuable are not the same thing. Again, average salary is of little meaning because of market distortions. Average second contract is maybe the stat you’re looking for.

    I am not the only one saying that. Averages hide a ton of subtlety in data. PER and WS/48 are actually designed to measure a players on-court contribution. Average salary is not designed to tell you what an average FA is worth.

    offering only Iman Shumpert, who played major minutes on a finals team, as your only example. Whereas in this same thread I posted earlier the comp on Evan Turner.

    Why are you focusing at all on anecdotal, one-off examples? Shumpert was an example to show where market value was. You are trying to use Turner as a sample of one to prove DW’s career path. Do you not see the difference?

    I remember you as being opinionated, and always liked your rhetorical energy, but I really think you are arguing this to be contrarian more than because you actually believe Reggie Williams to be worth this contract.

    Reggie Williams? I think he’s worth the contract 100%. Do I think it’s a brilliant signing? No. It’s $5 million, though. The bar isn’t that high.

  164. Ted– aren’t you the guy that wrote 20,000+ words back in 2010 about how terrible Ray Felton was?

    Ray Felton in 2010 was better than Reggie Williams in 2015.

  165. Ray Felton in 2010 was better than Reggie Williams in 2015.

    Is it a joke that I’m not getting or do you keep accidentally writing Reggie when you mean Derrick?

  166. Oops :)

    I do that when I type into BR too. The 2 Reggies come up and I try to figure out which one I mean before realizing my mistake. Too many Williamses!! (I was a mess when Herb, Buck, and Monte were on the same team!:)

  167. Ray Felton in 2010 was better than Reggie Williams in 2015.

    Luckily we don’t project future outcomes based on one year of data…

    Over the course of his Bobcats career Felton was no better than DW to date, he was two years older, I would subjectively say he had less upside as a fat little 5’10” PG who couldn’t shoot, he was signed for longer, and he made 50% more money at a time when the cap was lower.

  168. I would subjectively say he had less upside as a fat little 5’10” PG who couldn’t shoot, he was signed for longer, and he made 50% more money at a time when the cap was lower.

    I don’t want to belabor this thread, but since so much has already been made about numbers and their relative distortions, I’ll point out that 2010 Felton was 6’1″, had the exact same length contract, made 25% more, and was, in fact, better, as he at least had a discernible skill that was proven at the NBA level (ball distribution).

  169. I’ll point out that 2010 Felton was 6’1?, had the exact same length contract, made 25% more, and was, in fact, better, as he at least had a discernible skill that was proven at the NBA level (ball distribution).

    Wrong all around.

    7.5 is what % more than 5? (Hint: the answer is 50%, not 25%.)

    Two years guaranteed is a longer effective deal than one year with a player option.

    Felton is 5’11.5″ without shoes and 6’0.25″ with shoes.

    Thanks for deciding which proven skills is more valuable! That whole scoring skills is worthless!

Comments are closed.