Knicks Morning News (2024.12.10)

Largely re-posted from last night’s late thread:
“I was trying to convey my odd dissatisfaction with this very good team to my girlfriend earlier this evening. All I could come up with was some vague “vibe” thing that we had with the grit of DDV and Julius last year that seems to have been lost. We gave up “feel” for what is a better team on paper, but which doesn’t feel quite as cool to root for.

That said, I find KAT hella easy to root for.”

So, a few points regarding the sense of unease that Doogie talks about here, and that a lot of you discussed last night while I was waking up from my anesthesia. (I’m fine now!)

First, this team is aggravating as hell. This game shouldn’t have been this close. Even if you accept that we have two subpar defenders in the starting lineup, we should not be making it this easy for opponents to get open and score.

But second, every Thibs team — other than that one glorious month immediately after the OG trade — has been aggravating to watch in some ways. For that matter, every good Knicks team of my entire life has been like that. I tore my hair out all the time watching the Ewing/Riley Knicks. (And I had a lot more hair to tear in those days!) The Randle incarnation of this squad was predominantly a classic case of “No no no no no no YESSSSSSS!” When Brunson would go superhero mode, it was impressive to watch, but also a reminder that he had to do it, because nobody else was getting anything done.

Third, I know this is perhaps anathema to being a lifelong Knicks fan, but if I have to choose between an aggravating team that plays lockdown defense but struggles to score, and an aggravating team that is relentless on offense but can’t figure its shit out on defense, I will take the latter. The offense is gorgeous to watch. Some of those KAT dimes practically made me tear up when I watched the replay this morning.

And fourth, I think this squad can figure its shit out on defense. With the Ewing or Randle teams (or some of the good Melo squads, for that matter), there was only so much blood you could get from the stone that was the offensive talent surrounding our best player. Here, I know KAT and Brunson have to be schemed around. But we also have a ton of defensive talent surrounding them, and most of the problems on that end seem to be about miscommunication. And that is something that can definitely improve over the course of a season. (Though this is the one downside to the whole “Thibs doesn’t really do practices anymore” philosophy; it has to be worked through only in film sessions and games.)

But I believe in this group. And after all the endless re-litigation of the OG trade, the climactic defensive play of this game felt very satisfying.

I hear you Doogie, here’s my two cents:

NBA’s RS is an infinite grind and for the best teams taking a game off here and there is the norm.

In the last couple of years we were accustomed to root for teams who overcame talent deficits with hustle and work, but play pedal to the metal much more than an average good NBA team.

This year’s different, it feels like the players are confident to have another gear or two in the pocket and we take stretches where they go through the motions (yesterday was a good example, the intensity in the last 3-4 minutes was clearly different).

Also, I think some of the the players are “auto-managing” because they know Thibs will use them a lot (yesterday he used an 8-men rotation again despite having KAT and CAM back and a theoretical longer roster).

Dreaming about what this team can do when in “full throttle” mode is mouthwatering, in the meantime maybe it’s better avoid to over-analize single games (I’m speaking to myself here 😀 ).

That said, game threads are made for hot takes and visceral reactions, and from a larger perspective I think it’s absolutely fair to be worried about our defense, Thibs stubbornness, Bridges sub-par season or any other topic… The alternative is to shut up until april, but where’s the fun? 😉

Great news Alan! Best wishes!

I don’t buy this theory that the team doesn’t practice. If it’s true, a new coach should be hired, as they clearly have issues to resolve on defense. The open 3s are mostly the result of players missing assignments, or leaning the wrong way, which are things that can be fixed in practice.

I don’t buy this theory that the team doesn’t practice.

It’s not a theory. It’s something that multiple beat reporters have said they have witnessed. Specifically, I think they mean that they don’t scrimmage. Guys are at the practice facility, they watch game tape, do shootarounds and other drills, but you’re not getting 5-on-5 action, which means less wear-and-tear on players over the course of the season and the ability to give them a bigger minutes load in games that count.

Than this is another reason why the bigger minutes load is a problem. How do you solve and rehearse schema issues if you cannot practice it?

I would also like to add that there’s some weight of expectations happening too… i used to be happy just watching the games since Brunson came because we still had so many picks and young guys and we all knew that wasn’t the final form of this team.

Now the picks have been traded, the consolidation trades happened, we’re pretty much in the all-in phase now… so I come into these games expecting to watch a contender, not an upstart underdog that can grit out games.

I have confidence in this team too, there’s still a lot of regular season to happen and I’d argue this group is still figuring how to play together. So I’m trying to not get too angry or disappointed when games don’t go perfectly, but it’s hard to do so when the game is happening.

Interesting. I just brought up the scrimmage thing to one of the beat writers, who told me, “No coach scrimmages in season anymore. Thibs isn’t unusual in that.”

The expectations are higher but a few things.

Winning road games against mediocre teams is not easy. Winning games against teams that have players who we traded and who are probably extra hyped to play us is never easy.

The Detroit game was disappointing but Detroit doesn’t totally suck this year and we had beaten them like the last 16 times or something. They were probably itching to end that streak and we were unprepared. It happens.

beating teams that are 500 on any given night is not a given in the NBA, especially on the road.

You can go back to the regular season of every championship team and find games they barely won against teams below 500 or losses they should have won.

But the end of that game last night was great and those types of moments and wins on the road are what forges a team’s identity. It felt like a real moment for KAT and this team when he repped the jersey like that at the end.

The team will get better on defense. Precious is still ramping up. Mitch will come back. The longer they play together, the better that will get.

I do think they might be self relegating to some degree because of how many minutes they play. It is wild to me that Thibs is doing an 8 man rotation even when dudes are healthy. If he’s going to do that, it would be nice if Cam and Precious got closer to 20 minutes a game and not 15. But Thibs also is going to Thibs.

Every Knick starter not named Towns is top 15 in minutes played. It’s hard to play consistent defense with tired legs .

I sometimes track Celtics games on ESPN when I’m bored (hoping for a loss obviously), and they’ll be close with some shit team right until the end. And almost inevitably, they win because they just have too much talent not to.

I get aggravated just like you guys at games like last night but we’re not gonna steamroll all the bad teams. (And we have in fact steamrolled a bunch of em in the last few weeks)

I’m just very thankful we have a guy like OG, who makes one huge defensive play after another, and KAT and Brunson who have the “clutch gene” for lack of a better term

Now let’s kick Atlanta’s ass tomorrow!

It’s hard to play consistent defense with tired legs .

Yes. Like Sims has been not bad off the bench. Now he’s relegated to DNP because Precious is back? Does Precious not play when Mitch gets back and we’re still rocking an 8 person rotation?

It’s wild. And Cam has been good off the bench for us. He should be closer to 20 minutes. The 8 man thing is annoying. Raptors only played 9 deep last night. But it was a big deal when Thibs went from 10 to 9 man rotation a few seasons back. Now he’s gone from 9 to 8? It’s kind of psychotic, lol.

Yeah Thibs is going to burn out his players . OG with his injury history is 6th in minutes played. Even in some of these blowouts in the 4th Thibs still has his starters in and can they cut Matt Ryan and bring in somebody useful.

Managed to watch most of 2nd half last night – and my guess is that if both teams play just like that 10 times, the Knicks win with an average margin of 10+. Overall we shot well from 3 but also still missed a ton of wide open looks. Also missed a bunch of easy layups, coupled with the Raptors (especially RJ!) hitting some really wild layup attempts. And if we had just hit 3-4 more FTs to match our season average, it wouldn’t have been close either.

Now what did show up is that Toronto is a gigantic team and we got beasted on the boards – 17 offensive rebounds for them vs 6 for us. And we did definitely get a friendly whistle (that foul by Brunson on RJ late in the 4th definitely could’ve been an and-1).

I like the defensive substitution at the end – prob need to do that more often.

Interesting. I just brought up the scrimmage thing to one of the beat writers, who told me, “No coach scrimmages in season anymore. Thibs isn’t unusual in that.”

Alan, now I get and understand it.

“They don’t scrimmage” is different, and made much more sense, than “they don’t practice”.

You can do a lot of “tactics” at a slow pace in a 5-on-5 halfcourt environment, with coaches interrupting for details and so on, even if you miss the “full speed timing”, and NBA teams usually have only one day off between games (not counting travels).

We need to work a little more on communication in transition defense though… 🙂

The KAT moment after he hit the 3 was incredible, absolutely love the fire he’s playing with.

Strat, sorry to hear that you are overwhelmed with caring for your mom and brother. And Alan, sorry to hear that your health issues have been so difficult to get past. Wishing you, and all who are struggling with one issue or another, all the best as the holiday season approaches. And thanks to Mike K for keeping the blog up and running, it serves as so much more than a sports forum.

Would have been nice to see RJ (and IQ) be able to operate here with the open lane and an elite passing big man, as opposed to having to deal with Julius’s backwash and shin-high passes with too much mustard after a failed, often pointless foray.

In terms of the “re-litigation,” at this point when you consider that in most precincts the young player who didn’t play for TO last night is considered better than the young player who did, there’s really nothing to objectively litigate anymore. While I suppose there might be some neo-Ecksteinian holdouts, the verdict is Brown v. Board of Education obvious. There’s really no need to belabor it at this point.

However … luckily for the Knicks, the OP for OG and asset/talent dissipation was offset by two things — (1) While OG is a niche, role player, he’s very good/excellent in that niche role; and (2) The asset/talent dissipation was offset (by probably more) by the talent accretion when they sent out Julius and DDV for KAT.

So the net result is where it’s always been — very good team, needs to stay healthy, not a lot of depth, probably a weapon short when didn’t need to be, probably not coached by the best option, projected future through 2032 not as good as it should be and would have been with smarter FO moves.

Kind of boring and not internet hawt take, but that’s the current state of the Knickerbockers.

Now onto the Cup.

I come into these games expecting to watch a contender, not an upstart underdog that can grit out games.

IMO Bruno here speaks to the source of our collective “unease”. Last year we were outperforming expectations, and all of Randle, IQ, Deuce, DDV, to some extent Hart, and iHart were guys who *seemed* to be playing way above expectation when we won. That “vibe” was easy to eye-test into “grit-hustlebunny-underdog” stuff and was quite rootable (if that’s a word).

Now if we win, it’s because our guys are simply doing what they are supposed to do, which can feel a little anti-climactic. And if, god forbid, we lose, then it’s b/c Brunson, KAT, OG, and especially Mikal are performing *way below* our expectations (and their salaries). Thus –> crank.

Yankees fans know all about this frustration, and I still believe Leon’s brief was to turn the Knicks into a Yankees-style perennial corporate-clean contender. So we may need to get used to the “new” NYK.

To wit, like the team, I think our board may also need 20+ games to “gel” ;-). We are not yet clear on what the bad signs are for a new game (Poor first quarter? 50% from three? Who are we?). Nor are we yet routined in what to expect to win a close one — specifically b/c this year’s team has so much variety on offense.

As yet, we don’t know exactly what we’re looking at or how to evaluate it, but like the team, we too will get there. Baby steps 😉

Wishing you, and all who are struggling with one issue or another, all the best as the holiday season approaches. And thanks to Mike K for keeping the blog up and running, it serves as so much more than a sports forum.

Full agreement with Z-Man here, and sending all (online) strength. I’m not one of the main, or particularly well-informed posters, but I read every single word, and truly appreciate all you folks, even during the inevitable brotherly squabbles.

KBA, the Yankees comparison seems spot on. I don’t really watch baseball at all outside of the world series and I was so surprised to see almost overwhelming negativity about a team that made the world series, but this is what it’s like to root for a team with sky high expectations. I understand that very well as a Brazilian who’s been through it for 2 decades with our National team in soccer, a 1-0 win against Paraguay is widely regarded as a shit result no matter what happened.

The last time Knick teams bludgeoned teams with pure talent was over 50 years ago with the championship teams — and even that era is now mythologized as “DEE-FENSE!!” and unique unselfishness. (*)

There’s nothing in the cultural drinking water here that gives us the mental template for dealing with the Knicks just beating teams because the Knicks are better.

(*) Ultimately, there’s a shade of Puritan and “work ethic” in all of this. A lot of people intuitively blanche, in all aspects of life, at the person or group that is simply better and can get away with occasional dissolution as opposed to being “gritty” or “working hard.”

I totally get the anxiety about how we are playing and how it is magnified by the all-in nature of this team. But I think it is leading to some pretty superficial takes.

First, there is Thibs. He’s got his flaws, for sure. One of them is that he’s very slow to move off of his core principles, regardless of personnel. He’s not going to change defensive systems without giving players a chance to learn and execute the system he prefers. And his system is not as simple as “stay with your man” or “switch everything” or “C plays in drop coverage.” There are tendencies towards certain things, and some core principles, but beyond that, it’s highly coordinated with lots of quick decision-making involved. Then there are blitzes, doubles, weak-side help, all manner of things. If one player is off on one aspect, it creates imbalances that often wind up with an open 3 or a shot at the rim.

So there is a wide gulf between “this isn’t working, let’s get another coach in here” and “give players and coaches time to learn and adapt to the schemes and each other.”

Even the great offense doesn’t look so great in most of our losses. Our eFG% is .606 when we win and .547 when we lose. This is mainly because we win, we shoot .423 from 3, and when we lose, we shoot .356. Our opponents shoot .327 from 3 in our wins and .433 in our losses. This enormous 3pt variance is upsetting on the defensive end, and it seems pretty clear that if we don’t shoot well and our opponent is hot, we are likely to lose no matter how bad the opponent. We won last night because we made a bunch of 3’s in the fourth quarter. We lost to Detroit because we missed those same shots while even their iffy shooters like Cade and Ivey knocked shots down.

But it is hard to really guage this defense and have urgency to make wholesale changes to fix it (i.e. make it more consistently result in the variance favoring a win) when playing against scrubby teams early in the season. I don’t think we’ll see a real urgency from Thibs until we get to the midpoint of the season after some difficult stretches against top-notch competition like the Cavs, Celts, and Thunder. A couple of beatings like opening night where these elite teams toy with us will be a wake-up call. Beyond that, we should just hope that our personnel is capable of executing Thibs schemes more effectively.

I understand that very well as a Brazilian

Haha. I hear you, Bruno. My wife and in-laws are all German fans of the national team, and, despite all the trophies, they are always cranky about die mannschaft — moreso than just b/c, you know, they’re Germans 😉

PS — I always loved watching Roberto Carlos play, even when overwhelmed by hype for Ronaldo (the real one) and Neymar and Ronaldhino and Kaka and (the list goes on). Was I right to like him?

The Thibs doens’t practice thing is getting overblown, NBA teams don’t really have enough time to practice much during the season, it’s a leaguewide thing.

Also I don’t know if you guys remember last year but we bitched all season long here except for like one month. Until the OG trade there was a sense that we were sort of stuck.

Interesting. I just brought up the scrimmage thing to one of the beat writers, who told me, “No coach scrimmages in season anymore. Thibs isn’t unusual in that.”

Thanks, yes, it is interesting. Thanks also to Max for highlighting the difference between practice and scrimmage.

Until the OG trade there was a sense that we were sort of stuck.

Yes, indeed. And last night’s game seemed designed by the gods (or the algorithm) to prove Seinfeld’s bit about sports fans just rooting for laundry.

I don’t regret the trade, and I love OG, but I do wish RJ well. He had a helluva game.

PS — I always loved watching Roberto Carlos play, even when overwhelmed by hype for Ronaldo (the real one) and Neymar and Ronaldhino and Kaka and (the list goes on). Was I right to like him?

Oh he was a legend, truly the best left back I’ve ever seen. Premier League teams are paying 60+ million on full backs that aren’t even in the same stratosphere as he was, most people rightfully remember the highlights and the crazy strong free kicks but he was a truly complete player. Most people remember the 2002 world cup as a masterclass by Ronaldo and Rivaldo but we wouldn’t have been anywhere near the finals without him and Cafu being the best full backs in the world.

RJ Barrett, liberated from Randle’s backwash and Thibs’ insistence on not playing all those stretch 5s we totally could’ve played, still is not particularly close to league average scoring efficiency, and his team’s TRB% and AST% are both better with him off the court. Like all 30 NBA teams, I’ll take OG.

Anywho…

I definitely sympathize with everyone expressing some uneasiness about, for lack of a better term, the vibes. I think the expectations are definitely a factor, but the biggest issue for me personally is aside from last night and the Brooklyn game where Brunson saved our skin, it feels like we’ve lost every close game this year.

When the wins often feel comfortable and the losses make you want to tear your hair out, I think you get a skewed idea of the team’s quality.

There is of course a positive spin you can put on this–if Pythagoras were a Knick fan he’d say comfortable wins and close losses are a positive indicator, and accordingly he has gifted us two extra wins from the grave.

But from a fan perspective, it makes you feel like your team lacks a certain mettle, and I won’t totally write that off as irrational. There are some teams that go whole seasons without getting it together in close games, and while there will always be more noise than signal there, I do think it can be related to coaching, personnel, etc. to some extent too.

All this to say, let’s win some more of our squeakers so we can all stop going to bed angry.

I don’t regret the trade, and I love OG, but I do wish RJ well. He had a helluva game.

He got to the rim a ton and finished at the rim in a mediocre fashion, it was a very RJ game. He didn’t take any mid range shit, which was better then what he did on the Knicks. On the one hand he should finish better against a team with no rim protection, but on the other hand the Raptors down Barnes don’t have anyone else to create so he was facing a lot of attention.

Sounds like the Heat are shopping Butler, I wonder where he’ll end up.

Rockets and Warriors were the 2 teams most prominently linked to Butler in Shams’ article this morning.

Also I don’t know if you guys remember last year but we bitched all season long here except for like one month. Until the OG trade there was a sense that we were sort of stuck.

YES to this. I think there’s a bit of (Leon) Rose colored glasses going on regarding last season’s team. I think some of this is because they gave us such a thrilling and memorable first round victory in the playoffs. Truly that was a series for the ages (even though it was only the first round). And when a team wins a series like that, it just endears them to the fans.

This team hasn’t had that experience yet, but I feel like the vibes of the team are actually getting better.

This team can be a drag at times, but I’m with Alan, the offense is so gorgeous that I prefer it than the alternative. It does get frustrating, though, when after a beautiful offensive play leading to a bucket the Knicks allow the other team to get to the rim unopposed after a simple screen.

That said, there are few things I enjoy more about the NBA than watching OG play defense. This steal is ridiculous.

https://x.com/DJAceNBA/status/1866483879130866091

He is running a career high in stocks right now, by the way.

(RJ) still is not particularly close to league average scoring efficiency, and his team’s TRB% and AST% are both better with him off the court. Like all 30 NBA teams, I’ll take OG.

Totally get it, and no doubt this was Leon’s calculus as well. And I’m def glad Leon is making the decisions, b/c I’m too much of a homer with digital art showing RJ, IQ, Mitch, and Grimes hoisting the O’Brien Gold (not really).

Nevertheless, part of the irrational joy of sport comes from memories that resist cold hard stats, no? RJ blocking DeRozan in Chicago, for example.

Point being, RJ gave me some good memories (and bad ones haha) as recently as this year, so I still like the guy. (Not saying you don’t btw, just felt complex to see him blocked by OG with the game on the line, in his hometown, against his old team).

And fourth, I think this squad can figure its shit out on defense. With the Ewing or Randle teams (or some of the good Melo squads, for that matter), there was only so much blood you could get from the stone that was the offensive talent surrounding our best player. Here, I know KAT and Brunson have to be schemed around. But we also have a ton of defensive talent surrounding them, and most of the problems on that end seem to be about miscommunication. And that is something that can definitely improve over the course of a season.

ex personnel changes, i think they are pretty much drawing dead to “figure shit out” on defense unless that just means do a bit better than 18th. it isn’t enough to say they have to scheme around kat and brunson. kat is the clear 5, which is not just any position. it is really really hard to be, say, a top 10 defense with a well below average rim defender at the 5.

kat has played ~9K minutes in the nba as the obvious 5 and those teams have been consistently below average defenses, including lots of minutes with some good peripheral defenders and many minutes on thibs in particular. anunoby is a defensive marvel but josh and mikal 3.0 are more like plus defenders with flaws.

mitch/kat lineups could make a big difference, but not a free one. precious/kat lineups could make a modest difference, but also not a free one. i’m not saying we are optimizing our defense and i also see some of the miscommunications that seem ripe for improvement, but i don’t think that margin is very big. our 3 best defenders have been extremely healthy so far, while we’ve played a lot of teams missing key offensive players.

I like RJ Barrett too. Not as much as I like Quickley, but have nothing bad to say about the guy as a person.

But when someone who held himself up as smarter than everyone else because of the high value he placed on RJ Barrett as basketball player is blatantly proven wrong about said value vis-a-vis OG Anunoby, but attempts a hilarious victory lap anyway, well, I admittedly have trouble not feeding the troll.

“there’s really nothing to objectively litigate anymore. While I suppose there might be some neo-Ecksteinian holdouts, the verdict is Brown v. Board of Education obvious. There’s really no need to belabor it at this point”

Being nostalgic about RJ or wistful that he never got a fair shake here, or sold on his potential, is one thing. Vomiting up condescending self-congratulatory bullshit like this is another. Boringly predictable, though…just like when on a critical possession, RJ chooses to put his head down and drive left into traffic only to get his weak attempt easily blocked by a defender who saw it coming a million miles away.

For me the addition of Precious and, especially, Mitch, isn’t so much about improving our regular season defensive rating as much as it’s about having those line-up options available and ready to go for the playoffs against certain teams or in certain situations.

To put it another way, if playing Mitch/KAT some or KAT/Precious some or even Mitch/Precious some, hurts our historic offensive rating during the regular season some but gives those line-ups experience and time to work together so they can be used in the playoffs if needed, it will be worth it.

PT, there are, like, at least a dozen plays every game where guys are clearly out of position because they aren’t sure what their responsibility is on defense relative to their teammates. Thats something that CAN be worked out. We won’t be a top 5 defense with KAT as the center, but we could easily be top 15 just with better communication, which takes time.

Rockets and Warriors were the 2 teams most prominently linked to Butler in Shams’ article this morning.

So the Warriors would have to build a package around Kuminga and the one or two picks they can trade. Miami would ask for Podjemski, Warriors would try to include Moody instead, likely.

Rockets have lots of picks, including some from Phoenix, they have a deeper group of young players to include, and they have to move Jalen Green at some point in the next couple of years, given the shorter extension they gave him. So they can likely trump any GSW offer. Question is whether this is the deal to cash in some of that stuff on. With Golden State, it’s about trying to win one more title with Steph by any means necessary, whereas Houston is trying to build itself into a long-term contender.

Agree with Walker. Adding Mitch gives Thibs another situational weapon (assuming health). Even at 10-15 min per game, Mitch will make certain people turn back around when they drive/cut to the hoop.

Also, with Mitch back, I think our 2nd unit will develop a run-run personality like the best of times last year. If Thibs gets the rotations/mix right, I think we have enough talent on the bench to punish teams and drive up a lead rather than just hold a game close.

PT, there are, like, at least a dozen plays every game where guys are clearly out of position because they aren’t sure what their responsibility is on defense relative to their teammates. Thats something that CAN be worked out. We won’t be a top 5 defense with KAT as the center, but we could easily be top 15 just with better communication, which takes time.

agreed we look out of sorts a lot but even the best defenses have several miscues like that a game. i think our team is all but guaranteed to have more than average because (1) we scheme heavily to help and protect the paint which requires much more room for coordination error when you have a weaker 5 and a 1 who gets hunted and (2) all our guys have good motors on defense, which is a good thing but shifts the error quotient from type ii to type i. when randle didn’t scramble to help it didn’t look like the keystone cops, but when josh and mikal sprint to the same guy it does. even when they are really good and communicate well, there’s always a great deal of ruin in high motor help heavy defenses. not saying there is nothing to do there and if average is the goal it’s far from impossible, but i still see that as more of a good case than an expectation.

Giving Kat a little leeway because he’s banged up there were a bunch of times where the on ball defender would funnel his guy to KAT and Towns was just too slow footed or slow reacting to properly contest the shot. I don’t know how much you can scheme around that if he’s playing center, it’s really hard to stop NBA players completely on the perimeter with any consistency.

pt, you are echoing Ben Ritholz’s sentiments about KAT. It’s a legitimate worry. The teams with the best net ratings…OKC and BOS can easily keep up with our scoring and are better than us on D, and I expect that difference to be magnified in the playoffs. CLE is a bit more curious, it’s hard to convince me that Spida and Garland won’t have defensive issues vs playoff-level offenses but they are sure doing pretty well so far.

Some are hoping that we can be like the 2022-23 Nuggets, meaning winning a championship with a top offense and middling defense. I would argue that Denver’s defense was better than they showed during the regular season, and they actually had the third highest rated defense of the 16 teams in the playoffs. They had great length in the front court and KCP and Brown were pretty strong as wing defenders at the point of attack. The problem for us is that while OG and Gordon are comparable in net terms, KAT is not as good as Jokic on either O or D, and after that we are heavily reliant on Mikal, Hart, and Deuce to be our POA guys, and none of them are “stoppers” and none of them can completely make up for Brunson needing to be hidden or KAT not protecting the paint. So there aren’t great answers for the question of how do we beat teams that are top 5 on O and top-10 on D. And yeah, the answer probably isn’t Mitch or Precious, but it at least should be tried against those teams, especially if we get blown out by the C’s again.

There are obvious exceptions, but in recent years I’ve come around to believe that whichever team gets the best player has generally won the trade even if looks like they gave up too much cumulatively. The reason I say that is the ultimate goal is to put the best possible player and fit at every position and not just to accumulate the most good players. Accumulating assets is an early stage goal.

RJ has more offensive talent that OG, but OG is still the better all around player and better fit in NY.

Quick is a nice two way player and I wish we still had him, but OG is still the better all around player.

RJ and Quickley may eventually be key components to a very good Raptors team, but the Knicks got the best all around player and best fit for the team Leon was building.

Thibs needs a bench of veterans who are good individual and team defenders in order to play them.

He’s running the starters into the ground.

An immediate intervention is needed by either a directive from Leon to play Deuce and Precious 32 minutes, – each playing two different positions or get him someone Thibs will actually play asap.

Can’t ignore injury odds forever than say its just a fluke and bad luck.

If KAT were a really good defender, wouldn’t he be one of the greatest players in the history of the NBA?

I’ll take unstoppable offense over great defense every day of the week, see Jokic, Nikola.

OKC and BOS can easily keep up with our scoring and are better than us on D, and I expect that difference to be magnified in the playoffs.

This is exactly why I’ve been talking about beginnig the search for a longer, defense first, rebounding, rim protecting PF that can shoot 3s.

That’s sounds like a lot, but he doesn’t have to be a high usage scorer. He doesn’t have to be some star. He just has to be a solid role player.

That will improve the rebounding (relative to OG at PF), interior defense with added length, but without sacrificing spacing and scoring.

OG would move to SF, Bridges would be the SG and Hart would move to the bench. The PF would only have to replace Hart’s offensive output which is not huge and maybe get an extra in traffic rebound here or there, but he’d give us more of what we are lacking now and strengthen the bench.

In the past we’ve had very specfic targets in mind to fill very specific needs like OG, Bridges and even Towns was discussed for C. The debate was whether we could get them even though there were hints they would be available. In this case, it’s harder to identify 1-2 players that woud be ideal that could become available, but if one does, I think we DO have the assests to pull something off.

BTW the guy who comes to mind who brought the same dilemma as KAT is Amar’e. Lightening quick on O but always out of position or late on D. It’s a weird, and likely innate, processing thing. It’s not for lack of effort or physical qualities. It’s a split-second of indecision that makes all the difference. Once or twice every gme, you see guys like them make a spectacular defensive play when everything clicks. But for a guy with his size and athleticism, KAT is mostly a split second late, and then doesn’t have the defensive fast-twitch agility or footwork to recover.

The one thing KAT does give you in spades is defensive rebounding, which is very valuable. But it requires the initial shot to miss, and the miss to not have a long rebound, for him to make up for his defensive inefficiencies.

It also doesn’t help that because of his outsized role in the offense, he often winds up on the ground or in the stanchion after his drives, and then trails the play for the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. Those 5-on-4 situations are hard to recover from without someone getting either an open look from 3 or a cut to the basket. That’s where having an athletic, space eating rim protector on the floor helps. OG, Mikal and Josh are good, but against a team with 5 shooter/scorers, they are only able to do so much. Brunson does his best by drawing charges, but again, not ideal.

On the bright side, Minny led the league in defensive rating last year by moving KAT to the 4, and had a middling offense, probably due to the tradeoffs pt alludes to. It worked well until Dallas figured them out in the WCFs.

This is exactly why I’ve been talking about beginnig the search for a longer, defense first, rebounding, rim protecting PF that can shoot 3s.

Who other than Bobby Portis fills this desciption?

The high eFG% party we are enjoying would probably not be happening if RJ was still here using a lot of possessions.

He’s having a good year by his own standards, but our team eFG% is #2 in the league at a scorching .583. This along with a low turnover rate has made us the #1 team in the league in offensive rating.

RJ’s eFG% is .517 this year, and his turnover rate is at a career high. He’s being asked to do a lot in Toronto, so you can’t really hold the higher turnover rate against him, and he is delivering lots of assists and rebounds, which is why he has a career high 0.7 BPM. It’s just hard to see how we’d be better with him than we are without him. The high eFG% assault is our bread and butter, and you can’t really make the case that our offense or defense would be better if he was still on the team.

Who other than Bobby Portis fills this desciption?

There are players that fit the decsription but they are either unavailable or bring more to the table than we need or can afford. That’s what’s makes any move tough. We’d had our eyes set on OG and Bridges and got them, but we don’t have a target I am aware of for PF. For all I know Leon and Thibs don’t agree with me because they are planning on playing Mitch and Towns against some matchups and Towns and OG against others.

Re: RJ last night

Had a good game in shooting and facilitating offense. However, you can see both KAT and OG knew he was hgoing left and didnt have the foot speed or guts to finish through contact and then he followed it up by dropping on the switch, leaving Towns wide open and then finished it off with a poor effort contest.

Great kid. Will put up a ton of numbers over the next decade and maybe even make an All Star team but his offense is not so great that it makes up for his lack of defense. I think of him as a Terry Rozier or better yet Kemba Walker type due to his fearless clutch gene.

“This is exactly why I’ve been talking about beginnig the search for a longer, defense first, rebounding, rim protecting PF that can shoot 3s.”

Again, b) these guys aren’t available for peanuts, and b) if the player is a low-usage 3pt specialist, you are putting even more pressure on the offense. We need to keep in mind that the two main roadblocks to playoff success are Boston and Cleveland (although I think it’s too early to sleep on MIL, PHI or ORL, and maybe even ATL.)

Boston is the gold standard. They don’t have any 3 and D guys in their starting lineup. All 5 guys can score with any kind of space at all, and going tit for tat when you have two stand in the corner/dunker’s space guys is a losing proposition. When KP is healthy, they can bring Horford, Prichard, and Hauser off the bench with any two of the starters, and none of those guys miss when they’re open.

That’s why I can’t get all that excited about this team until I see how they look against the best. The aspirations are higher, and so are the standards. These current games are not meaningless, but they don’t tell us all that much either.

We need to keep in mind that the two main roadblocks to playoff success are Boston and Cleveland (although I think it’s too early to sleep on MIL, PHI or ORL, and maybe even ATL.

LOL, not trying to call you out or anything but basically you’re saying that every potential playoff team in the East is potentially a roadblock. I mean, yeah. You have to win each series to advance and each step of the way, you could lose.

“…you can’t really make the case that our offense or defense would be better if he was still on the team.”

If he was on the team and not OG, our defense would be beyond horrific. OG is one of the most impactful defenders in the NBA. RJ is at best a generic defender. The gap is enormous.

On offense, I would give an edge to RJ. I like a lot about OG’s offensive game, but he has some gaping flaws that suggest that if he upped his usage, his efficiency would plummet. But he’s smart enough to know that and mostly picks good spots to score, and he scores at all 3 levels in limited ways. RJ is far more versatile, and might be very effective at a 24-ish USG% in an offense dominated by KAT and Brunson.

RJ made some comments to that effect about how playing with Randle and Brunson took away from his willingness to cut:

“But I cut more [here] just because I know I have a chance to get [the ball], and even when I don’t get it, I’m not upset about it because I know I’m getting it on the next one … If you cut all the time and you never get the ball, you’re probably not gonna want to cut.”

Still, given that he wants to be more than a #3 option and that his defense is so-so, it’s not particularly controversial to believe that OG is the significanty better fit with Brunson and Towns.

“LOL, not trying to call you out or anything but basically you’re saying that every potential playoff team in the East is potentially a roadblock. I mean, yeah. You have to win each series to advance and each step of the way, you could lose.”

Well, I guess that’s my way of saying that I am not yet convinced that we are the kind of team that can be counted on to overcome things like 3-pt variance in a 7-game series.

A good comparison is the 2022-23 Celts, who lost to Miami because they got smoked from the 3-pt line. Tatum and Brown went cold, and guys like Smart, Grant Williams, and Timelord were not able to make up for that.

We are vulnerable in the same way. If Brunson and KAT are cold (or well defended) then we haven’t proven that the surrounding cast is enough to overcome that. We need to start beating good teams at full strength before I believe that we aren’t vulnerable to losing to any of them. Hasn’t happened yet. We’ve lost to the Celts, Cavs, Rockets, Hawks, and Mavs with no excuses. We are 1-1 against the Pacers, and our loss looked a lot like last year’s. We beat banged up versions of the Sixers, Bucks, and Magic. We’ve gotten our asses kicked by the Jazz and lost to the Bulls and Pistons.

We are not in bad shape but we also haven’t looked like a team that will just cruise through the first two rounds vs. anyone but the Celts or Cavs. We have a lot to prove.

I don’t really see how RJ’s efficiency would improve with lower usage. The RJ conundrum is despite being mediocre-to-decent at a lot of different things, he jdoesn’t standout in any particular area such that if he were allowed to focus on that area he would excel.

He still sucks at the rim for someone his size/position, and is still only hitting hisspot up threes at at 35.3% clip (35th percentile league wide).

I don’t really like the terms “winning player” and “losing player” because that’s often an out-of-context oversimplification, but the latter does seem to fairly apply to guys who undoubtedly have standout basketball talent that just isn’t well-distributed.

Again, b) these guys aren’t available for peanuts, and b) if the player is a low-usage 3pt specialist, you are putting even more pressure on the offense.

You aren’t going to get a player like that for peanuts, but as long as he’s not a high usage scorer, he’s not going to be out of our range if we bundle a couple of salaries and sweeten it a little.

I disagree on the offense.

The key to our offense is both talent and spacing.

If this player can shoot 3s at a respectable rate (even if mostly from the corner) the spacing will still be fine. He’d be replacing Hart in the starting lineup and that would put little to no pressure on anyone else to up their usage.

Depending on salaries and who the player is, we might have to weaken the bench in some way (Mitch, Precious, a young player etc..), but Hart moving to the bench would be a big plus for that unit. I’d way rather feel like we addressed the rebounding and interior defensive issue and worry about filling out the bench later than the other way around.

Other than handful of teams the league is so balanced talent wise and the game so 3 pointer oriented almost anyone can beat anyone on any night just based on 3 point variance. The best teams are going to have the upper hand long term, but the game is not particularly attractive to me right now. Game to game, I think the “luck” element is steadily increasing and can be a bit frustrating when you clearly have the better team but a couple of extra 3s in both directions made the difference.

I’m not sure there’s a PF available who can space/defend/rebound better than Hart already does. The list might just be Myles Turner.

There’s no question that Toronto has utilized RJ’s talents better than we did. But after his blazing start with Toronto he has regressed to the mean a bit this season. I think you’re seeing a bit of age-related improvement from him and also a bit of improvement related to his role and usage pattern with the Raps.

Thing is, we’re the #1 offense without him, largely because we have a brutally efficient team eFG%. I can’t see how he wouldn’t make that eFG% worse. Maybe he offsets that a bit by getting to the line more often, but… I mean #1 is #1. It’s hard to improve on that.

Defensively we’d be worse. So, why are we supposed to miss him, exactly? He’s not cheap, either, has a $28M AAV contract.

I wish the kid well. He makes more sense for Toronto than he did for us.

Here’s a list of players with enough qualifying minutes who have 1+blk/36, shoot 33% from 3, and grab 6 rebs a game:

Clingan
Wemby
Jay Huff
JJJ
Myles Turner
Matas Buzelis
Mobley
Jalen Smith
PJ Washington
Zach Collins
Dray
Naz Reid
Horford
Sandro Mamukelashvili
Trey Lyles
Javari Smith
Jalen Johnson
Deni Avdija
Jake LaRavia
Cody Martin
John Collins
KAT
Mogbo
Tobias Harris

Which of these players are gettable and an improvement over Hart?

I think someone brought it up last night and I’ve been discussing it on another thread. Shouldn’t Thibs be changing up the defensive scheme a bit to use fewer soft doubles on drives and then scramble especially when your best defenders are on the perimeter. Give up more easy 2’s for less easy 3’s. Am I missing something?

“I don’t really see how RJ’s efficiency would improve with lower usage. The RJ conundrum is despite being mediocre-to-decent at a lot of different things, he jdoesn’t standout in any particular area such that if he were allowed to focus on that area he would excel.

He still sucks at the rim for someone his size/position, and is still only hitting hisspot up threes at at 35.3% clip (35th percentile league wide).”

There is a non-insignificant sample of RJ putting up a .615 TS% and .601 eFG% in a lower usage role. He did so by essentially doubling his assisted basket percentage, taking more corner 3’s where he has historically shot pretty well, and shoting 43% of his shots at the rim. One can choose to ignore that sample as a hot streak, or attribute it to a more suitable role, i.e more off ball, lower usage, better shot selection and a faster paced offense with more transition opportunities leading to better efficiency at the rim due to a higher percentage of dunks.

This year he is back in an unsuitable role, mainly because IQ has been out and Barnes has been mostly out. I would agree that if his future is limited to his current role, he will never be a particularly efficient player. But Darko is a bright coach and surely knows this, so I would expect that his role, usage, and shot diet will be adjusted when the team gets healthy again. And I think his entire 10,000 minute sample with the Knicks will be not mean much going forward. That doesn’t mean that I am buying into E’s bullshit above, just that I’m not as dismissive of his potential as many here who largely feel the way that you do.

Yeah, RJ has suffered by being in the clogged toilet offense here in NY and now having to play high-usage point forward, which outside of ‘forward’ is something he is terribly unsuited for.

I do appreciate the roar that went out from the fans every time he did something good. At least he’s beloved.

But to be clear, while I think he’s a good kid, his unchecked ego was a bit much for me, as were his head-down charges into the fray, so I’m glad he’s not our (daily) problem anymore.

Game to game, I think the “luck” element is steadily increasing and can be a bit frustrating when you clearly have the better team but a couple of extra 3s in both directions made the difference.

Be careful what you complain about, Strat! Nobody thinks we have any shot to become favorites over BOS/OKC within this window, so that luck factor is our (or someone else’s) only shot to knock out teams like that, just as less talented squads won’t be drawing dead against us.

Conversely, you just knew that there was no way we were getting past a healthy MJ-led Bulls teams in the 90’s. Variance brings parity, and without that, BOS/OKC will trade off the next five titles and OKC wins all of the next five.

I also think that fit is central to this discussion. RJ and OG are not suited for the same role. RJ’s role has largely been replaced by a combination of Hart and Mikal, not by OG.

In essence, if you go back to July 2, 2023, which is the day we acquired DDV but had not traded Obi yet (ignoring that Josh Hart was acquired prior to this, and the whole Bojan/Burks for Grimes/Fournier business)

-the KAT-OG combo replaced the Randle-iHart combo, with O/D roles sort of reversed.
-the Hart-Mikal combo replaced the RJ-DDV combo.
-the Deuce-Payne-Precious combo replaced the IQ-Grimes-Obi combo

Mitch and Brunson are the remaining constants since that time.

So it seems reasonable to look at the transition from what we had to what we are through the lens of these 3 phase-ins, if you will. Each phase-in had a cost associated with it (picks, salary cap implications).
In my book:
-the first is a massive net win when considering that iHart was a sunk cost and that Randle was sort of an expiring
-the second is a net win on the court but a huge net loss in the asset department…5 unprotected first, a pick in the 20s, and a pick swap. This will only change if Mikal plays like a near all-star.
-the third is a net win, mainly because of the financial implications of IQ’s new deal and Deuce’s contract. But it depends a bit on how good IQ becomes.

-the second is a net win on the court but a huge net loss in the asset department…5 unprotected first, a pick in the 20s, and a pick swap. This will only change if Mikal plays like a near all-star.

It’s automatically net win on the court because we didn’t give up any player talent of note, but it would take a lot more than near all-star play to justify the price paid, which is comparable to the historical pricing of first-team All-NBA level talent like Kevin Durant.

Indeed, the only possible way for this trade to be a win is at the team level under the logic of “if my last coin buys me a crown, it’s a fair price.” We have to win a championship with Bridges’ contributions putting us over the top for that move not to be a colossal blunder.

Be careful what you complain about, Strat! Nobody thinks we have any shot to become favorites over BOS/OKC within this window, so that luck factor is our (or someone else’s) only shot to knock out teams like that, just as less talented squads won’t be drawing dead against us.

OKC may be the 2nd best team in the NBA but don’t think the gap in starting 5 between us and them is so large we can’t beat them in the finals if we faced them. They’d be the favorite, but we’d have a shot. They may not even make it the way Dallas is playing. They are deeper than us and have an endless supply of assets to keep tweaking things going forward. That’s partly why people are so high on them, but I think their picks have limited value to them unless they are planning on allowing other players to walk. You can only draft and play so many players and it looks like they are already set at every position. What they did wound up being overkill unless they start rolling picks out for the next rebuild. 😉

Our best shot against Boston is an injury to KP or players like Holiday and Horford eventually declining to the point there is no gap. Other than that, we may still make another move, if not at the deadline maybe next season.

I said this yesterday but I’ll repeat it. Part of the price for Bridges included the fact that he’s on an attractive contract. You have to pay extra for a bargain contract in the same way you have attach a pick to move a bad one. That may not be a direct basketball consideration, but it turned out to be huge for us. Would we rather have traded for Bridges for less picks while he was making more money and then be unable to trade for Towns?

I’d expect RJ’s role to change a bit once IQ is back. I’m not sure how that will impact his efficiency, but his assists and TOs will probably decline a bit because he’ll be handling the ball less often.

Mikal Bridges is shooting 35.6% from three after removing halfcourt heaves.

BTW, I appreciate his half court heaves. They tell me he really cares about winning and not padding his numbers.

“…which is comparable to the historical pricing of first-team All-NBA level talent like Kevin Durant.”

This is not really correct. While the price was high, it did not include the several good players (Mikal himself who was obviously worth a lot and Cam Johnson) like the trade for 35yo Kevin Durant did. The Spida trade included Lauri Markkanen, Collin Sexton and more. Even the Gobert trade included Kessler, Beasley, Beverly, and Vanderbilt.

Yeah, the price for Mikal wasn’t small, but we also sent out exactly zero players that Brooklyn had any interest in. It’s very rare that you see a big package where 100% of the value is in the picks.

Game to game, I think the “luck” element is steadily increasing and can be a bit frustrating when you clearly have the better team but a couple of extra 3s in both directions made the difference.

this is a thing, but it’s easy to overstate the size of the effect on game to game luck. for example, over the last 25 years, teams favored by 6-10 points lost 24.9% of the time. Since the beginning of the 2022-23 season through last night, that number is…25.1%.

OKC may be the 2nd best team in the NBA but don’t think the gap in starting 5 between us and them is so large we can’t beat them in the finals if we faced them.

The gap is absolutely gargantuan. Shai is pretty much nice guy Michael Jordan and Jalen Williams is fifth in EPM this year. It’s really mind-bending how good that fucking guy is and how many areas he’s elite in.

EPM ranks of their best five:
2. SGA
5. J-Dub
15. Holmgren
53. Dort
61. Hartenstein

Ours:
13. Brunson
28. Towns
79. OG
81. Hart
88. Bridges

So in a series they’d have:
-The two best players
-3 of the best 4
-5 of the best 7
-Way better bench depth
-Less injury risk due to said depth and the high durability of everyone but Chet

The gap is almost impossible to overstate. I think they’ll be better than BOS by the end of the year if they aren’t now, and this will be the last year it’s close before they’re recognized as the 2017 Warriors reborn.

Again, this is us being all in and them having absolutely gargantuan internal upside given J-Dub and Chet are 22 and 23. On top of this, they have enough assets in reserve to build another team better than us.

Our “window” is really a race against their development more than anything. I’ll be satisfied if we make a Finals.

Players get injured all the time, both ours and the players on other teams. Nothing can be taken for granted in that realm, and they can change the calculus of and derail a team’s success by a mile (see: 2023-24 New York Knicks).

Wishing you, and all who are struggling with one issue or another, all the best as the holiday season approaches. And thanks to Mike K for keeping the blog up and running, it serves as so much more than a sports forum.

Full agreement with Z-Man here, and sending all (online) strength. I’m not one of the main, or particularly well-informed posters, but I read every single word, and truly appreciate all you folks, even during the inevitable brotherly squabbles.

100% agree with Z-man and KBA, wishing all the best to any of you that are struggling, and i don’t think this is an internet forum anymore, it’s a group of friends that like to come here and discuss our common love (Knicks) among other interesting things (tv shows, music… pizza!). 🧡💙

Ronaldo (the real one)

Are you trying to say our Ronaldo isn’t real? 😀

Players get injured all the time, both ours and the players on other teams. Nothing can be taken for granted in that realm, and they can change the calculus of and derail a team’s success by a mile (see: 2023-24 New York Knicks).

The injury risk profile is much different for different teams. For us, for example, losing Brunson or Towns long-term would torpedo that season instantly. A team like BOS can lose KP and still dominate the playoffs. A team like OKC can lose Chet and still have the best talent base in the NBA.

The injury bug is much more likely to close our window than open it wider. The fact that we haven’t been dominant even with our entire core healthy points to us needing significant luck in this area to legitimately contend.

EPM ranks of their best five:
2. SGA
5. J-Dub
15. Holmgren
53. Dort
61. Hartenstein

Ours:
13. Brunson
28. Towns
79. OG
81. Hart
88. Bridges

I have much respect for advanced stats, but would you believe if i told you that i wouldn’t trade any of OG, Hart and Mikal straight up for Dort?

I know I shouldn’t, but kind of rooting for the magic…

Players get injured all the time, both ours and the players on other teams. Nothing can be taken for granted in that realm, and they can change the calculus of and derail a team’s success by a mile (see: 2023-24 New York Knicks).

The injury risk profile is much different for different teams. For us, for example, losing Brunson or Towns long-term would torpedo that season instantly. A team like BOS can lose KP and still dominate the playoffs. A team like OKC can lose Chet and still have the best talent base in the NBA. Players get injured all the time, both ours and the players on other teams. Nothing can be taken for granted in that realm, and they can change the calculus of and derail a team’s success by a mile (see: 2023-24 New York Knicks).

The injury risk profile is much different for different teams. For us, for example, losing Brunson or Towns long-term would torpedo that season instantly. A team like BOS can lose KP and still dominate the playoffs. A team like OKC can lose Chet and still have the best talent base in the NBA.

Compare apples to apples plz… if OKC looses Shai and Boston loses Tatum… they’d be in deep doodoo, too

Yes, that’s what I was alluding to. I was just trying to avoid “speaking player injuries into existence.”

yep, as long as giannis stays healthy, they’ll be a tough out in the post season…

crazy to think how well giannis is playing right now – and there’s shai and joker playing even better…

The Magic shoot like a bad college team, just brutal

A team like OKC can lose Chet and still have the best talent base in the NBA.

OKC is real deep except they have only two guys who can dribble

Are you trying to say our Ronaldo isn’t real? 😀

Yes, Cyber, that was for you 😉

OKC is real deep except they have only two guys who can dribble

Too funny.

I wonder if I would like the aesthetics of today’s game more if they made it so 3’s would only count for three with less than 14 seconds or left on the shot clock until the last X minutes of the quarter. No shot is as aesthetically unpleasing to me as the pull-up 3 in transition or early in the shot clock.

Bucks really gonna blow this game vs a depleted Magic?

Suggs was really impressive in the 4th, he looked like the player I thought he was going to be coming out of gonzaga.

Suggs has the physical tools to be a 2-way star. Despite the bald spot, he’s still only 23.

Scottie Barnes had X-rays that did not show a fracture. However, when he hurt it he said he couldn’t feel his foot. More imaging set for tomorrow. Interested to see what the final diagnosis is.

Barnes kept saying what looked like “Oh my goodness, oh my goodness, oh my goodness,” which is a pretty odd reaction and suggests he was experiencing something weird (not to mention suggesting he was raised in a very strict conservative household…).

Maybe he literally hit some sort of nerve like Brunson did a while back

Sounds like Thibs ran him into the ground.

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