Knicks Morning News (2024.10.26)

“IMO KAT is better than Randle and a better fit on this team. I’m not sure why this is a discussion. I don’t think it’s all that close.”

Seems like those who voted Randle all-NBA 2nd team twice would beg to differ. Not that awards mean much, but to say that it’s not all that close seems based on personal preference rather than fact.

In my opinion, we never got to see the best of Randle, although last January was pretty close. He never had all that much space before that, and when he did he was pretty much unstoppable. He isn’t “efficient” to the degree that Towns is, but he does a lot that goes unappreciated. His “gravity” and shot profile created a lot of space. He didn’t always make great decisions, but neither does KAT. He’s also a better rebounder, passer, and ball-handler for his position than KAT. Neither of them are difference-makers on D relative to others at their position.

This is not to say that he’s a better “fit” for this team given the enormous hole at C going into the season. Just that the two players are very close in value, and Randle might actually be the better player overall.

“DDV had a great season shooting, made some huge shots and fit the personality of the team perfectly, but he’s a role player or 6th man type player. Would I rather have him? Yes. But IMO we clearly got the best player in the deal and that was the goal.”

He was a starter last year and was excellent on both sides of the ball. He was acquired for free and was making $12M for the next 3 years. To hand-wave that away because he’s a “6th man type” drastically underestimates the value of a 6MoY candidate off the bench.

“Setting aside Mikal’s awkward 3 point shooting, if you can’t see how much better Mikal is than DDV after last night, imo you are looking at the wrong things. It wasn’t so much that he shot so well, it was the type of shots he was creating and making on top of much better defense than DDV. Mikal is a serious player. He just has to straighten out whatever the hell he’s tweaking on his 3 point shot.”

But so what? Mikal was acquired for our entire first round pick stockpile and will soon be earning triple of what DDV is getting paid. He fucking BETTER be a much better player. But that’s not what is being discussed here. The question was: is KAT enough better than Randle to justify the loss of a 6MoY candidate and $20+M in cap apace?

My initial impression is no, it doesn’t justify it. But I’m persuadable, and if KAT toughens up and we start whupping up on teams like the Cavs, Sixers, Magic and Heat with him being a force against them, I’ll definitely be encouraged. Last night was nice, he really took it to Myles Turner, who is no slouch.

“There were moments yesterday where Bridges was looking for his shot that I found extremely encouraging”

I think what Bridges did for the Nets post-KD trade was enough to convince me that he was for real as a shot creator. Last night was very reminiscent of that time…the off-the-dribble pull-ups in traffic with a high release point or space created by fading away. That’s what separates guys like Tatum, Randle, KD, DeRozan, and other elite scoring non-PGs/non-C’s from the 3-and-D types…the ability to break guys down and score over them, forcing a double team. I don’t think Mikal is in that league, but he’s pretty close, and might actually thrive on a team where he is surrounded by good players and only has to do that part time. And if that’s actually the case, the price we paid for him (giving his favorable contract, that there were no good young players going out, and that we are unlikely to be drafting very high for the next 5 years) seems more reasonable. If he can’t do that, then Leon probably significantly overpaid. In other words, it should be an expectation, not a bonus.

“Randle is usually good for a TS+ in the high 90’s and an eFG+ in the mid 90’s. Towns is usually up around 110 in both. It’s not even close as to who is better at throwing the ball into the basket.”

KAT was assisted on 60% of his 2’s and 92% of his 3’s. Last year that went up to 64% and 97%.

In Randle’s 5 NYK years, he was assisted on 38% of his 2’s and 80% of his 3’s.

So if you are looking for a catch-and-shoot threat, KAT is clearly your guy. If you are looking for a shot creator, it’s Randle by a landslide.

“Z-Man reading my mind has been one of the stranger developments of this year. Must be the water in Saratoga.”

Or alternatively, you’ve done what you accused TNFH of doing and subconsciously migrated over to Team Z-man. Either way, it’s all good!

BTW I was at 9 Maple again last weekend, the trio was truly brilliant, especially the guy on keyboard. There’s a newish sports bar right on the main drag called The Bunker which has indoor golf simulators and plenty of TVs. Watched the Mets win their last game there. Both are excellent venues for single guys. Alas…

“On 10/25 of last year, Randle went 5-22, here’s him being guarded by Holiday”

Interesting that you chose a game from the 8-game stretch in the beginning of last year where Randle sucked against everyone. If you look at the film, Randle got to all of his usual spots and just missed. On one of them, he took Holiday right into the paint and made the shot and got fouled.

In the Embiid clip, on nearly every possession, Holiday’s teammates hedged over on D. On the ones that they didn’t, Embiid easily got to his spots.

Holiday has strength and great hands, so he strips bigs pretty well, but he isn’t preventing them from posting up on his own, as is clear in the videos.

If anything, you actually proved the point.

“One of the dumber arguments I’ve seen you make here.”

Considering your track record in the Leon era, I’d be careful to throw language about the dumbness of arguments around. PS where did you come down on the Obi vs. Randle arguments? The defense of Randle was all about his ability to create shots, yet some “smart” posters dismissed those arguments and wanted to dump him because we’d be better off with more efficiency and less shot creation. How did that take age?

The flawed logic is about the importance of shot creation. Can KAT create his own shot as much as Randle did and keep his efficiency up? I guess is Brunson misses a stretch of games, we’ll find out, as the closest thing we have to a shot creator besides Brunson and KAT is Mikal, and that’s really not his thing either.

Maybe a better example is the way Jaylen Brown is portrayed here as largely overrated given his pedestrian efficiency numbers compared to his usage. I personally feel that it’s his and Tatum’s shot-creation that bends defenses and makes the whole 5-out thing work as well as it does. Without it, meaning from BOTH of them, defenders would be much better able to stay home.

I’ve been shown a lot of “evidence” here for a lot of things that turned out to be dead wrong. I would need to see the actual film clips used and how they are defined. Still remember folks saying Tyson Chandler was better than Dirk Nowitski based on “evidence.”

For example, I just looked a the highlight reels for 2022-23 and 2023-24 for both players. I hardly saw any of what I would call “iso” plays from KAT, mostly 3’s and straight line drives. So it’s not that he has a MUCH higher percentage of his baskets assisted, it’s that even the unassisted baskets are not really iso in the way that I define it, and I believe that most observers would define it. That’s good enough for me. Seems to be good enough for the all-NBA voters too. If it isn’t good enough for you, whatever.

BTW Minny must be really stupid if they thought the best way to avoid massive tax bills was to deal away Towns in favor of keeping Naz Reid. How stupid must it be for a team to trade away a player you think is not just better but actually much better than a 2X all-NBA player rather than keep such a priceless gem and come up with a better way to save money?

Maybe they thought “Hey, we’re getting a comparable player to Towns who makes far less money plus a lethal 3pt bench sniper who plays D plus a first rounder that is unlikely to convey? When is the last time a team traded away a player way better than a consensus all-NBA player in his absolute prime and locked up on a long-term deal who was not only not demanding a trade but was beloved in his community?

Maybe, just maybe, Minny thought that KAT was overrated and not worth keeping?

“I’ve seen zero evidence to support your claim. You just like to dance around it all and think you’re making a salient point. If Randle is such a great iso/post player, where’s the evidence?”

Never said he was a “great” iso player, just better than Towns. And the evidence that puts the stated evidence into question is that KAT has been assisted on a far higher percentage of his baskets both from 2 and 3 than Randle. Any stat that suggests that they are iso’ing a similar amount doesn’t pass the smell test. Then there’s the film evidence in their respective scoring highlights. If you want to spend the time qualifying their scoring plays as iso and non-iso, go right ahead. It’s overwhelmingly obvious to me.

“As Archimedes said, “The quickest path to 2 points is a straight line.””

True, but those aren’t iso plays.

Again, your “empirical evidence” is hardly “indisputable.” You are trusting both your own and nba tracking way more than you should in the context of this argument. You would need to look at the clips themselves before labeling them indisputable. There is not only what is being used as the definition, there’s the offensive role, volume, defenders involved, predictability of the play, coaching philosophy, players on the floor on both teams, etc. Again, looking at the respective highlight reels of scoring plays, it seems pretty obvious that KAT is not iso’ing nearly as much as Randle as a way of scoring, and that KAT is way more selective in when and how he iso’s. Since those highlight reels are representative samples of made shots, you can tell whether we are comparing apples to apples or not. In this case, I think it’s apples to oranges, and I’m going with the stats being wonky.

“Outstanding argument and not at all something that should be relentlessly mocked.”

Again, considering how wrong you have been about a million things of importance during the Leon era, I’ll take that chance.

“62% TS% compared to 56%, .185 WS/48 compared to .102 and a 4.5 bpm to 1.0. These are all career numbers plus KAT is a year younger.”

I agree that KAT has far superior career numbers than Randle. But in the last 4 years, they have been pretty comparable in all but 2021-22. Randle was 2nd team all-NBA in 2 of those years and on his way to a third before blowing out his shoulder. But hell, KAT must be the most underrated player in the NBA, including by the team that just essentially salary-dumped him for an overrated chucker, a bench player, and a couple of seconds.

Hopefully you are right and this is the KG heist 2.0. Believe me, no one would be happier than me!