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Knicks Morning News (2024.04.12)


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  • Bojan Bogdanovic’s recent Knicks burst strengthening case for playoff role – New York Post
    [New York Post] – Fri, 12 Apr 2024 04:51:00 GMT
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  • 190 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2024.04.12)”

    @NBA_NewYork
    Players in NBA history who’ve averaged 39+ points 8+ assists over 5 games:

    Oscar Robertson
    Elgin Baylor
    Wilt Chamberlain
    Tiny Archibald
    Michael Jordan
    Allen Iverson
    LeBron James
    Dwyane Wade
    Russell Westbrook
    James Harden
    Devin Booker
    Damian Lillard
    Luka Doncic

    Jalen Brunson

    I would call this another case of Small Sample Size Theater, but Brunson has been an absolute monster over the last few months, not just in these few games. Couple him with a healthy OG as the skeleton key, and this beautiful motion offense we’ve developed, and I love this goddamn team so much.

    Also, god bless Bogey for giving inspiration to balding white men everywhere.

    Also, it is ridiculous that Seth Partnow buried Brunson in Tier 1C of his playoff tiers. Ridiculous.

    this beautiful motion offense we’ve developed

    I agree 100%.
    With OG, DDV and the Hart Foundation we play to a totally different tune, one where The Maestro can ride his funambolic solos in the flow of the game, and this ensemble is as beautiful to watch as is productive on the field.

    It could also spawn some uncomfortable questions about the past and especially the future, but I’m too elated right now to think about them… 😉

    Okay, if I have the math right:

    1)If we win out, we can finish no lower than the 3 seeds, because we’re a game up on Cleveland.

    2)The Bucks would have to go 0-2 while we go 2-0 in order for us to get the 2 seed.

    3)In the event of a 3-way tie between us, the Bucks, and the Cavs — Bucks go 0-2, we go 1-1, Cavs go 2-0 — the Cavs would get the 2 seed, the Bucks would get the 3 seed, and we’d wind up in the 4 seed due to various tiebreakers.

    4)I am not positive, but I think that if we go 0-2 and either of the Pacers or Magic go 2-0, we could fall to 5th or even 6th, because we have losing records versus both those teams.

    Math is not my strong suit.

    Alan, I think that’s right looking at BRef’s playoff odds:

    https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html

    The Knicks do have a slim chance of finishing 5th or 6th, but it’s pretty unlikely.

    I’ve been trying to figure out Philly’s path to 6th and it’s breaking my mind. BRef only gives them a 15% chance of climbing to 6th, but if they beat Orlando tonight they will own the tiebreaker and will be tied, with a game against the Nets at home on Sunday. I guess BRef’s model thinks a 3-way tie is likely in that event, pushing Philly to 6th? I don’t fully understand how they have a 44% chance at the 7th and a 23% chance at the 8th seed in that model.

    Two thumbs way up for Kings of the Garden.

    A proper MVP ballot would be: Jokic, Doncic, SGA, Brunson.

    In terms of the attempted trolling in the game thread last night, correct priors don’t get changed after one single association game. Yes, they overpaid for OG, and yes, it would be better if a better player replaced Josh Hart. The idea isn’t to get to a point where you have a puncher’s chance against the Celtics; the idea is to get to a point where you’re definitively better than the Celtics.

    Now that JB has his proper on-ball role, we’re seeing clearly why Julius’s “on-ball skills” were deemed superfluous by close watchers.

    if they beat Orlando tonight they will own the tiebreaker and will be tied,

    marechal, Orlando as division winner would own the tiebreaker in a 3-way

    Magic and Sixers face each other tonight, Pacers and Cavs do the same, the Giannis-less Bucks go to OKC where the Thunder are still playing for one of the first 2 spots in the West.

    Let’s clobber the Nets and then reconsider… 🙂

    Yeah we’ll have a much better grasp of all the playoff scenarios after tonight’s games, just make sure to take care of business vs Brooklyn.

    The starters have been destroying teams. If Bojan and Mitch start playing like we know they’re capable of, we’re going to be a very tough out.

    The OG-iHart combo on defense is elite and the Brunson-iHart combo on offense has been impossible to stop. I really don’t know what we do without Hartenstein and his ability to make lightning reads as an outlet, it unlocks the whole offense.

    Also, it is ridiculous that Seth Partnow buried Brunson in Tier 1C of his playoff tiers. Ridiculous.

    Actually, it’s 2C, so even more ridiculous.

    RJ and IQ both up from Tier 5 to 4C.

    From Macri:

    “in the 726 minutes OG Anunoby has played in New York, the Knicks are outscoring teams by 23.1 points per 100 possessions. Cleaning the Glass, which filters out garbage time, has it at plus-24.4 points per 100 possessions.

    Since Draymond Green led the league with a +25.6 for the 73-win Warriors in the 2015-16 season, the only player who has played at least 500 minutes and had a higher on/off differential than Anunoby was Nikola Jokic last season, at plus-24.8.”

    Overpay!

    Update from your Don’t Fear The Sixers correspondent…

    Here’s their recent run of supposedly excellent play since Embiid returned broken down:

    – They played the Thunder at home in a game the Thunder rested Jalen Williams and SGA. Game went down to the wire. Sixers won by 4.

    – They won a close game in Miami. Nice but the Heat aren’t exactly killing it.

    – They beat the dregs of the NBA: Memphis, San Antonio, and Detroit.

    I maintain there is nothing to fear here. Embiid is probably going to miss half the series anyway.

    The starters have been destroying teams. If Bojan and Mitch start playing like we know they’re capable of, we’re going to be a very tough out.

    We just need to be able to stay afloat whenever Brunson sits. We can lose those minutes, but we can’t get destroyed in those minutes. If Bogey is starting to resemble the player he’s been elsewhere, that might be enough, especially since we’ll always have two starters on the floor with him, Deuce, and (a hopefully healthier by playoff time) Mitch.

    A proper MVP ballot would be: Jokic, Doncic, SGA, Brunson.

    I almost reflexively argued for Brunson over SGA but then I looked at the stats. Holy shit is SGA good.

    “We clinch the 3 seed with one more win, correct?”

    As Alan pointed out, if we are in a three-way tie at 49-33 with the Cavs and Bucks, we would wind up in the 4th seed.

    Nope, Knicks could still finish in a 3 way tie at 49-33 if Cleveland win out and Milwaukee loses out which would mean Knicks finish 4th.

    We just need to be able to stay afloat whenever Brunson sits.

    A bench with one of RJ or IQ and DDV, with DJM starting, would be something like 7 or 8 to 1 to win the Larry O’B. Maybe (probably) even better odds. That was the way to play it. The draft pick hoarding and the “we’re not going to pay IQ” thing was not the way to play it.

    That said, this is a quality basketball team.

    The Bucks would have to go 0-2 while we go 2-0 in order for us to get the 2 seed.

    I think the Bucks may actively attempt to go 0-2. They’ve already conceded tonight’s game in OKC.

    We just have to take care of business tonight. Chicago clinched home court in the play in game so they will probably take the day off Sunday.

    Except a bench with RJ and/or IQ would mean no OG as a starter and our starters DOMINATE with OG, even without Randle.

    Also, we have no idea how we stack up against Boston yet in a playoff series. It’s taken Boston how many years with the Tatum/Brown core to get to this level and they still haven’t won a title yet. So to criticize us because we’re ONLY at this level now is kind of ridiculous.

    Dejonte might have been a nice move. It also might have been the wrong move that cost us so many picks it wasn’t worth it. We don’t know. No one traded for him so clearly Atlanta was asking for a lot. He’s had one REALLY good season and that’s it.

    I like where we are now. Without Randle, we all know getting to the ECF and beating Boston is a very long shot. Let’s just enjoy the ride. Leon has done more good than bad and he still has a lot of ammo left to upgrade after this season.

    Except a bench with RJ and/or IQ would mean no OG as a starter

    Uh, no.

    Without Randle, we all know getting to the ECF and beating Boston is a very long shot.

    You don’t even need Randle anymore, really, (*) and there’s no reason to have beating Boston as a very long shot be the bar. More was possible.

    (*) The lane is more open now, and JB is an on-ball superstar. Julius is essentially superfluous now and they should be looking to move him.

    I’ve been trying to figure out Philly’s path to 6th and it’s breaking my mind.

    It is surprisingly straight forward:

    – If Philly goes 2-0 and Cleveland beats Indiana tonight, the Sixers will likely* finish 7th.

    – If Philly goes 2-0 and Indiana beats Cleveland tonight, the Sixers will likely* finish 6th.

    * likely bc Indiana plays Atlanta at home on the last game that is very likely a win for them.

    Uh, no.

    Um, yes. We traded IQ, RJ and a second round pick for OG and Precious and evil DDV.

    Any world where you think we could have made a different trade doesn’t actually exist because a different trade did not happen. So if you say “um, no” you’re full of shit unless you’re friends with Masai and he told you personally that he would have accepted a different offer.

    More was possible? You don’t even need a 2 time all NBA player to beat a 60 plus win team who has dominated the entire league this season?

    God you are insufferable. We just beat the best team in the league and the playoffs haven’t even started and you’re picking apart the team for bullshit reasons because you honestly think if you were GM you would have done better.

    Go apply for the job then or STFU.

    It’s interesting/exciting to see how the narrative has begun to turn towards Brunson winding up top 5 in MVP voting and/or on the All-NBA first team, beating out Jayson Tatum, who once upon a time seemed a lock for both bits of recognition.

    Having national TV games like last night’s certainly helps his case.

    Two thumbs way up for Kings of the Garden.

    I had no idea about our flirtation with a retired Wilt Chamberlain! Wild stuff, and yes, great book. So happy Alan brought it to my attention.

    A bench with one of RJ or IQ and DDV, with DJM starting, would be something like 7 or 8 to 1 to win the Larry O’B. Maybe (probably) even better odds. That was the way to play it.

    Definitely, definitely not. Since Trae went down, DJM’s TS% is still just .541. He actually got worse, despite the leading theory behind his inefficiency being that he’s incompatible with Trae.

    There’s no evidence whatsoever that he, even with one of RJ/IQ (which, who the hell knows if Atlanta makes a trade allowing us to keep one) would make our offense better than the 124.8 points per 100 possessions clip it’s currently at with OG on the floor, and many reasons to be believe it would be worse.

    Would they be better on defense than the 101 PTS/100 defensive rating they have with OG on the floor, which would be the best in the NBA by a country mile? Admittedly, the offensive rating would be a mere 2nd to the Celtics by all of 0.2 PTS/100, so you got me there.

    Damn, people here still getting hung up on proving how much smarter they are than the FO. Nothing changes much here, even when the FO is producing a very well-built winning team.

    I can’t quite see the scenario where we could still finish 6th… four way tie with the Cavs, magic and pacers maybe? If Cavs lose to the pacers tonight, they can only equal us and we have the tiebreak. If the pacers lose, they can’t catch us. So for us to fall below both of them presumably must be a complex tiebreak scenario?

    When you realise that the predicted inevitable playoff underperformance may not happen, best to effortlessly move to a but-it-could-have-been-so-much-better narrative. That’s as close to complimenting Thibs as he will get.

    17-3 with OG is pretty wild, I was lukewarm on the trade but he’s really fit this team perfectly.

    “In terms of the attempted trolling in the game thread last night…”

    It’s not trolling to ask a question like “does anyone still think that OG was an overpay?” You should be a bit more careful about throwing that word around.

    There was no way that OG would have been available to the Knicks for a lower price before the trade deadline, and the possibility was there that someone else (including the 28 teams that were not suing the Raptors) would have offered something comparable.

    So the alternatives were: pay the price or pass on the only opportunity you would ever have to get him and his Bird rights.

    Any intelligent GM would have paid that price, especially given the perfect fit for what this team needed. It was a high price for sure, but given the circumstances, a perfectly reasonable price to pay.

    In my opinion, you are undervaluing OG and overvaluing RJ and IQ. Precious is a decent bench big, which mitigates the cost of the 31st pick, especially in a draft where you already have two firsts.

    Given how much of a difference OG makes when he’s out there, I truly don’t get hanging on to the overpay opinion.

    As to the way you would approach team-building, that’s an original sin thing, and shouldn’t factor in. We know what this team prioritizes. The question is only about the cost of acquiring OG in that context.

    Yes, let’s all ignore E’s attempted hijacking of the thread with idiotic hot takes that he hopes become 100-post attacks that he can respond to all day long. And instead revel in the fact we’re heading to the playoffs with a damn good team.

    I will say, however, that one hot take that a few different people have posited (ignoring E) — we’re better without Julius — feels like utterly absurdist recency bias. We’re damn good without him, but I don’t believe that adding an All-NBA player to the mix (without trading anyone or giving away picks this summer!) would send us spiraling. He’s got his warts, but I can only imagine he makes us even more terrifying once he’s back to bully ball. This January included Randle, and we were unstoppable.

    yes, it would be better if a better player replaced Josh Hart. The idea isn’t to get to a point where you have a puncher’s chance against the Celtics; the idea is to get to a point where you’re definitively better than the Celtics

    I think we should all love and appreciate Josh Hart.

    I also think we should be mindful that the Celtics needed to get rid of their Josh Hart (Marcus Smart) to become the team they are today.

    That’s all it comes down to. We’re not Josh Hart haters. I just think we need a better player than him in our best 5 man unit.

    OG’s EPM is 35th, IQ’s is 110th, and RJ’s is 150th. Oversimplification, sure, but the idea that we “overpaid” is fringe nonsense that isn’t being discussed anywhere else because it’s too easily debunked.

    Then again, I’m the one losing here by violating my own rule. No responding to E posts that don’t have a falsifiable prediction!

    Are we going to lose in the first round because we don’t have the great RJ Barrett? The second? What will be the consequences of the “overpay?”

    Jalen Brunson’s footwork and use of the post-up will revolutionize the game for smaller guards. His game is so advanced and complete. He has too many combinations out of the pivot. Its almost Olajuwonesque.

    best to effortlessly move to a but-it-could-have-been-so-much-better narrative.

    This is exactly it. The goalposts constantly move with this dude.

    Last year we were a a play-in team, then we were a first round exit then we were the team that lost to the 8th seed (even though said 8th seed also beat the 1 seed and the 2 seed).

    He’s just laying the ground work so he can continue to shit on Thibs and Randle and Leon no matter what we do. HE basically gets to be “right” until we win a championship. Even then, if we don’t repeat the next year, it will be Leon and Thibs built a one and done team.

    In terms of the attempted trolling in the game thread last night, correct priors don’t get changed after one single association game. Yes, they overpaid for OG…..

    Yeah…. they overpaid for OG like they overpaid for DDV and Brunson according the the intelligentsia.

    OG has been one of the singularly most impactful players in the NBA since the trade. Full stop.

    This trade will end up being more impactful than Charles Barkley for Jeff Hornacek,, Andrew Lang and Tim Perry. And Jeff Hornacek, was a far better player than Barrett or IQ will ever be….

    It’s not trolling to ask a question like “does anyone still think that OG was an overpay?” You should be a bit more careful about throwing that word around.

    In context, it’s literally the virtual definition of “trolling.”

    I honestly don’t know why people are so hung up on the idea, frankly.

    “Given how much of a difference OG makes when he’s out there, I truly don’t get hanging on to the overpay opinion.”

    Oh, I see the problem — you don’t know what the word “overpay” means.

    Serious question:

    Why do you guys like to celebrate big wins by attempting to settle old feuds during and after them?

    E legitimately said nothing last night and you guys were like “ha ha ha remember when E said we overpaid for OG?”

    In terms of the Falsifiable Prediction (TM), if I could be assured that there are no hidden caveats, conditions, or codicils and that I could get my money out no strings attached, I’d open a Fanduel (or whatever) account and lay some money on the Knicks at last night’s 37-1.

    I’ll probably explore over the weekend.

    Why do you guys like to celebrate big wins by attempting to settle old feuds during and after them?

    I think they’d actually prefer a “Leon Did Not Overpay For OG” banner in the rafters of the Garden to “New York Knicks, 2023-24 NBA Champions.”

    It’s highly odd.

    and you guys were like “ha ha ha remember when E said we overpaid for OG?”

    Because it’s fun to give people shit when they’re wrong about sports. Especially when they are so adamantly wrong and refuse to admit they were wrong when all evidence points to the contrary.

    Serious question 2:

    E, why don’t you just ignore it? Like you really had to wake up today and respond to an innocuous comment or two from twelve hours ago?

    You have legitimately pissed people off with repetitive and uncompromising beliefs, so you probably deserve a lot of flak. Take it and move on.

    You have legitimately pissed people off so you probably deserve a lot of flak.

    Yeah, but they shouldn’t be “pissed off.” It’s a strange, authoritarian reaction. (And in basketball terms, of course wrong.)

    (Plus they want my reaction, which is ultimately deep down why they do it — but that’s the trolling that dare not speak its name lol.)

    Why do you guys like to celebrate big wins by attempting to settle old feuds during and after them?

    Great question. Freud wondered the same thing when he treated ex-WWI veterans who willingly recreated the traumas they experienced in the war. It led him to formulate his theory on the Death Drive. It would seem clear that humans are driven to destroy themselves. The Death Drive is connected to the compulsion to repeat, to a condition of stuckness. This blog will replay the same debates and settle the same old scores.

    “In context, it’s literally the virtual definition of “trolling.”

    It’s your personal definition. You see it as rubbing your face in a piss-poor opinion. I see it as a legitimate question that is not, as you put it, based on the outcome of one game, but an increasingly large body of evidence. And considering that you’ve been referred to as a troll by more posters here than anyone else, either you know full well what trolling is and do it all the time on purpose, or don’t have a clue.

    I honestly don’t know why people are so hung up on the idea, frankly.”

    No one is hung up on anything, other than you.

    “Oh, I see the problem — you don’t know what the word “overpay” means.”

    So when you run out of ways to defend a piss-poor opinion, you resort to hurling insults. Pretty typical of a troll.

    E legitimately said nothing last night and you guys were like “ha ha ha remember when E said we overpaid for OG?”

    Reading is fundamental, Hubert. Last night E trolled/wrote precisely:

    Yes, they overpaid for OG

    (And in basketball terms, of course wrong.)

    And this is why we give him shit.

    Also, the idea that ragging on some on a sports blog is authoritarian. LOL, you are such a martyr for your beliefs!

    Knicks are +24.6 per 100 when OG and Randle share the floor. We’re really good now, but we were really good in January when we had both of them too.

    You see it as rubbing your face in a piss-poor opinion.

    No, I see it as the virtual definition of trolling.

    That was this morning at 9:15am, Bob. You’re entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts 😉

    No, I see it as the virtual definition of trolling.

    Maybe it was, maybe it wasn’t. Who cares?

    You only win by not playing.

    Yes but you troll pretty hard, too, don’t you think?

    Actually, I don’t really see it as trolling. I just write my basketball (and occasionally other) opinions, without any real consideration of their popularity, yay or nay.

    “Trolling” is an internet era term. I’m more old school than that.

    I don’t recall a single poster referring to E last night.

    However, if the question “does anyone still think that we overpaid for OG” only triggers one single poster, that says a lot right there.

    However again, DRed just said: “17-3 with OG is pretty wild, I was lukewarm on the trade but he’s really fit this team perfectly.” There’s an example of a guy who understood that the question wasn’t trolling or settling an old score. It was an opportunity to revisit an old opinion that hasn’t aged particularly well.

    If anyone (say, Ben R) posted the question “does anyone here still think that the Bojan trade was a good one?” I doubt that anyone would be thin-skinned enough to take it personally or accuse Ben R of trolling. I definitely doubt that anyone would try to inflate Bojan’s and Burks’ performance or blame it on how Thibs was using him in trying to convince himself that the trade was a great one.

    If your real basketball opinion is that thibs is a bad coach because he didn’t replicate the results of the 2020 Utah jazz because he had Bojan bogdanovich and 14 different players than you should probably rethink the process you use to come to your conclusions

    It was an opportunity to revisit an old opinion that hasn’t aged particularly well.

    The opinion literally can’t age well or poorly because it’s dependent only on a transaction and the price at a single point in time. OG could be MVP next year and it wouldn’t change the analysis an iota.

    If you don’t get this, you don’t get the idea/concept of an “overpay.”

    “Lil’ Pennysays:
    April 12, 2024 at 11:11

    Yes but you troll pretty hard, too, don’t you think?

    Actually, I don’t really see it as trolling. I just write my basketball (and occasionally other) opinions, without any real consideration of their popularity, yay or nay.

    “Trolling” is an internet era term. I’m more old school than that.”

    Thus proving that you do indeed have your own personal definition of trolling.

    For the OG question in particular, I think it is very fair to revisit the “overpay” question without it being trolling since it certainly has had different flavours over time-initial euphoria, injury, surgery, re-injury, coming back a bit so-so, and the last 2 games. And what that may mean for a future “overpay” come this off-season. I disagree with E’s opinion on this issue, but do not view it as utterly wrong or unduly stubbornly held.

    The opinion that a given trade is an “overpay” can in fact age poorly if it turns out the party that allegedly “overpaid” had a firmer grasp of the value of the players involved than the idiosyncratic values you assigned to them, E.

    You undervalued the hell out of OG, and that’s okay. You weren’t the only one. You rub people the wrong way because you die on all your original, incorrect hills instead of just conceding to the evidence. Maybe it doesn’t bother you that you aren’t taken seriously here whatsoever, I have no idea. But I do know that you will continue to not be taken seriously until you cut that shit out.

    “The opinion literally can’t age well or poorly because it’s dependent only on a transaction and the price at a single point in time. OG could be MVP next year and it wouldn’t change the analysis an iota.

    If you don’t get this, you don’t get the idea of an “overpay.””

    The valuation at the moment of the transaction is based entirely on projections of future value of the commodities being traded. If you undervalue what is coming in and overvalue what is going out in the moment, your analysis is faulty. You were told that at the time and you disputed it. We now have evidence that you were wrong in your valuations in the moment, and yet you still maintain that your valuations were correct.

    Beyond that, it is pretty common practice to revisit transactions afterwards to judge whether valuations made in the moment were sound or unsound. DRed just provided an example of a graceful way of doing that. I did that with the Bojan trade by admitting that my valuation in the moment was wrong and that Ben R’s was correct. You seem to be incapable of doing that.

    You undervalued the hell out of OG, and that’s okay.

    I never did anything even remotely like that. In fact, I did the opposite, saying shortly before the OG trade that I’d gladly “go to war” with a reconfigured roster conspicuously including OG and DJM.

    Maybe it doesn’t bother you that you aren’t taken seriously here whatsoever, I have no idea.

    The game thread random call outs (*) show the exact opposite of “not taken seriously.”

    (*) The trolling that dare not speak its name.

    The valuation at the moment of the transaction is based entirely on projections of future value of the commodities being traded.

    So are stocks, and if you pay $200/share for Apple when it’s trading at $100, you’ve overpaid, even if it goes to a million.

    You don’t get this, which is probably why you continue to argue so strenuously. Why do you even give a shit if another Knick fan you don’t respect thinks the team overpaid for a player? It’s highly bizarre.

    So are stocks, and if you pay $200/share for Apple when it’s trading at $100, you’ve overpaid, even if it goes to a million.

    And what you don’t understand or pretend to not understand is that there’s no planet in which OG was “trading at $100.” It was thoroughly reported that just about every god damn team in the NBA was trying to trade for him, for the increasingly obvious “he’s really good at helping teams win basketball games” reason.

    I know, I know. This was a CAA psy-op. Such a wonder you’re not taken seriously!

    We can’t even enjoy dunking on the mighty celtics without devolving into an orgy of old beef? C’mon guys. We’re rolling at the right time, brunson is cooking, can’t we just get along until the post season?

    It was thoroughly reported that just about every god damn team in the NBA was trying to trade for him,

    LOL, OK. Whatever you say. You don’t understand that one, either.(*)

    Why do you care if a random Knick fan thinks the team overpaid for OG? (Which they did.)

    (*) “This was a CAA psy-op.” No, that’s not what was going on.

    In other controversial topics, I finished the Fallout tv series this morning. I’m curious if anyone here is invested in the lore of the setting, as the show does shake up a few things and has some interesting long-term implications. (Probably best to avoid spoilers, though.)

    Let’s take a moment.

    Knicks are about to play in the playoffs for the third time in four seasons after missing the playoffs for 7 straight seasons previously.

    They are one win away from 50 wins. Their first 50 win season since the 2012-2013 season.

    They legitimately have a top 5 player (fuck the pundits) in his prime.

    They’ve got arguably the best defensive player in the league on their team.

    They’ve got a bunch of great, hard working (I LOVE HUSTLE BUNNIES) role players.

    They’ve got probably the best (when healthy) center rotation in the league.

    No bad contracts. All of their first round picks and some extras to play with.

    It’s remarkable how far we’ve come in a very short period of time. Leon has had his fair share of mistakes but signing Brunson, keeping Randle and resigning him at such a great price, resigning Mitch at a great price, signing iHart and DDV, trading for Hart and OG. And let’s not forget hiring Tom Thibs. The dude has done more good than bad.

    There’s work to be done still. There always is. And I hope we do get to face the Celtics in the playoffs so we can truly see how we stack up. But man, this is a great time to be a Knicks fan.

    We can’t even enjoy dunking on the mighty celtics without devolving into an orgy of old beef? C’mon guys. We’re rolling at the right time, brunson is cooking, can’t we just get along until the post season?

    “An orgy of old beef”!

    Well done, Turin.

    Yeah honestly the best part is it seems like the best years are still ahead of us. Not talking about cap aprons and stuff but it does seem like with Brunson the window of contention should be open for years which is a nice feeling to have.

    Not talking about cap aprons and stuff but it does seem like with Brunson the window of contention should be open for years which is a nice feeling to have.

    I agree. I mean retooling, etc…will obviously have to happen. It always does. But Brunson is young enough that if we keep him in tow, we’ve got at least 5 years or so where we can reasonably expect the playoffs to be our baseline.

    And his game is low enough to the ground and based enough on fundamentals and strength that I think he should, in theory, age well.

    “So are stocks, and if you pay $200/share for Apple when it’s trading at $100, you’ve overpaid, even if it goes to a million.”

    That’s true, but Apple stock has a fixed, agreed upon value for its stock on any given moment in time. If you paid $200 when everyone else was paying $100, yes, you overpaid no matter what happened afterwards.

    But that wasn’t the case here. There wasn’t a set market price that you could refer to, nor anything but your own subjective opinion on what the market was. You even made up some shit about what would have gotten the deal done without including IQ and/or RJ.

    “You don’t get this, which is probably why you continue to argue so strenuously. Why do you even give a shit if another Knick fan you don’t respect thinks the team overpaid for a player? It’s highly bizarre.”

    Actually, I just put out a very simple question yesterday that you easily could have left unanswered. You instead decided to respond to it in dismissive fashion this morning. And now you’re complaining that my behavior is bizarre?

    But man, this is a great time to be a Knicks fan.

    Everywhere but Knickerblogger where the sky is always falling because we didn’t play Evan Fournier

    There wasn’t a set market price that you could refer to, nor anything but your own subjective opinion on what the market was.

    A better player was traded right around the same time by the same team for two 1s, a fugazi 1, and Bruce Brown. Most observers thought even that was an overpay by a small market team who hoped to get a first in advantage to resign a pending UFA — and that’s an eminently sensible opinion.

    Most of the objection to the “overpay” idea here is because of the bizarre misimpression people had of both RJ Barrett’s skills and market value — what was rightly called by another poster a “hate boner.” And now that is boomeranging back on the people, like me, who had a better idea about those things and that player.

    I mean if you held and/or still hold to the fatuous notion that RJ was a “salary dump” or needed appended assets to move, you’re naturally going to get the “overpay” idea completely wrong.(*)

    But it was an overpay. Leon could have done a better job at the deadline and they’d be even more of a contender. If that opinion chaps, it’s not on me. Overall, he’s done a good job and like I said upthread, this is a quality basketball team.

    (*) But then again, there were actually people here who thought Kristaps Porzingis was salary dumped. How that kind of thing is somehow on the people who knew better is quite the mystery. But the moral of the story is that hate boners for particular players will always get in the way of sensible analysis.

    Hate back to backs and tonight could be a trap game.

    Let’s not play with our food.

    Nice win last night. Felt good! And the Mets win a laugher in Atlanta. Woo hoo!

    I was gonna weigh in on how to define “overpay” in a sports transaction, but Z-man pretty much nailed my thoughts in his post at 11:59. It’s subjective.

    Has Leon handled every single move flawlessly? No. I still think his draft strategy is weird and that he hasn’t maximized the draft in particular.

    But so what? That’s more than offset by getting insane surplus value out of several key FA signings and acquiring a perfect fit piece in OG that seems to be the key to making the team more than the sum of its parts.

    Even if you don’t like the OG trade, at absolute worst case scenario it’s bad process/good results, and I’d argue that it’s even better than that: good process/good results. If you want to die on the hill that it was an overpay, that’s fine, but the rest of us are going to continue pointing at the scoreboard. 17-3. Hard to argue against that.

    But the moral of the story is that hate boners for particular players will always get in the way of sensible analysis.

    E, respectfully, I think it is time to shut it down for the day. You just personally insulted everyone who disagrees with you, myself included.

    I can’t quite see the scenario where we could still finish 6th… four way tie with the Cavs, magic and pacers maybe? If Cavs lose to the pacers tonight, they can only equal us and we have the tiebreak. If the pacers lose, they can’t catch us. So for us to fall below both of them presumably must be a complex tiebreak scenario?

    pretty sure bref is wrong here and we can’t fall below 5th, period. cavs lose a 4-way tiebreak at the conference record level. probably they don’t have an adjustment for our record against tied opponents necessarily equalizing in order for the 4-way tie to happen in the first place.

    Litigating about what constitutes trolling is unfortunately* a big part of the culture here and the cost of being able to read the great insights that I come here for. Scrolling past such colloquy is a simple tool to avoid that. At some point, lurkers like me will run the threads through AI and have it filtered out for us. *
    * The unrelenting competitiveness that has made many of you successful in your respective fields, also leads to the neverending relitigating of issues. In a sense, you’re trying to Josh Hart each other.

    Never will forget winning at Chicago in the final game of the 96-97 season to clinch the 3rd seed and prevent the Bulls from winning 70 games back to back seasons. It was also the 57th win for the Knicks yet they wound up playing a Hornets team that won 54 games as the 6th seed. Eastern Conference in the 1990’s had some very good teams that have been lost to history because of MJ.

    it’s possible there’s a world in which there was a better version of the OG trade available to us, according to at least some of us. we really, really don’t know how many picks and with what protections toronto might have preferred to IQ, for example. in fact, i’m certain opinions here would vary widely on whether to prefer keeping and paying IQ versus X draft pick outflow. pretty sure i would be an outlier toward the keep IQ side of things, but honestly no idea whether masai might have been even more of an outlier there.

    the issue in terms of blog readability as ever isn’t spitballing the mere possibility, it’s the faux certainty. most people are quite terrible about calibrating or even knowing their actual confidence when they aren’t forced to bet. it doesn’t help that confidence is pithy and attracts more attention, especially because some people are preternaturally annoyed by vapid overconfidence.

    Even if you don’t like the OG trade, at absolute worst case scenario it’s bad process/good results, and I’d argue that it’s even better than that: good process/good results.

    I like having OG on the team; he’s an excellent basketball player who was on my “death roster, go to war” (*) team posted many months ago. I don’t like that assets were squandered that could have been retained and then used to make the team even better.

    (*) Which had both RJ and IQ going out and OG and DJM coming in. That was eminently doable, and should have been done. Leon obviously wanted to retain the draft picks above all and that was, well, a blunder.

    especially because some people are preternaturally annoyed by vapid overconfidence.

    If the team wins out, 50 wins. My pre-season prediction. Maybe a bit small on the sample size and perhaps a bit of cherrypicking, but if it happens be prepared for some vapid overconfidence from BE!

    A better player was traded right around the same time by the same team for two 1s, a fugazi 1, and Bruce Brown.

    But maybe Masai didn’t want any more firsts because he already got a few from Indiana?

    I think the flaw with your thinking is that GM’s ALWAYS value any first round pick over any young player ever.

    But maybe Masai was thinking “I’m gonna trade OG and Pascal to kick start a rebuild and I hope to get a mix of draft picks and players out of trading both of them. He got his picks from Indiana and got the young players from us. Maybe he didn’t like any of the players Indiana had to offer and so they could only trade him draft picks.

    the issue in terms of blog readability as ever isn’t spitballing the mere possibility, it’s the faux certainty.

    And this, for me at least, is what makes E’s posts of such low quality. There’s never any specific alternative OG trade proposal, nor any reasoning as to why such a proposal would’ve been accepted, yet he’s 100% sure there was a better deal on the table we didn’t take because, uh, Leon likes getting ripped off or something.

    It’s a recurring theme. Alleged 100% certainty about things there’s no possible way to get that.

    I think my very favorite absurdist, reverse-logic statement of the day is “I’m not a troll, everyone else on this site is a troll!”

    That almost made it worth having E hijack the thread. Not really, but almost.

    (*) Which had both RJ and IQ going out and OG and DJM coming in. That was eminently doable, and should have been done.

    This dovetails quite nicely with my post above.

    But maybe Masai didn’t want any more firsts because he already got a few from Indiana?

    Siakam was traded after OG.

    But maybe Masai was thinking “I’m gonna trade OG and Pascal to kick start a rebuild and I hope to get a mix of draft picks and players out of trading both of them.

    Or most likely he was thinking, “I’m gonna get as much as possible out of these two assets” and luckily for him the guy who Sam Presti took to the cleaners to get Jalen Williams was on the other end of the transaction, desperate for one of said two assets.

    Even if RJ was/is better than what he showed as a Knick, fact remains his play for the knicks was mostly not good and that lowered his value. You can’t point to post trade play and him being in a situation that is better for him as proof that Leon dumped him. It’s not like Leon can say to Masai “yes, RJ’s numbers are bad in New York but he’ll be in a much better situation there so his value is more than you say it is.” The only thing anyone had to go on was his play, which was largely not great. Masai was taking a risk with RJ that a new situation would be better for him. It’s worked out great for him. Good for him!

    Here’s an even more controversial idea. The trade was good for both teams and no one got fleeced. Why does every trade have to have a winner and a loser?

    There’s never any specific alternative OG trade proposal, nor any reasoning as to why such a proposal would’ve been accepted,

    The Siakam comp is “reasoning” as is a bunch of other stuff I’ve wrote. You’re just inventing things at this point.

    I like Dejounte more than most people here but let’s be realistic about how good he really is. He has still never cracked a 100 TS+ or eFG+ in his career, and on his upcoming contract (4/110 starting next year) he doesn’t look like a big surplus value guy to me. You’d have to really believe a lot in his defense if you were going to invest heavily in that guy.

    He would have represented a large opportunity cost, and while I do think he’d have made us better (again, I like his game and value his shot creation) he’s far from a no-brainer “you gotta get that guy” kind of player.

    Even if RJ was/is better than what he showed as a Knick, fact remains his play for the knicks was mostly not good and that lowered his value.

    No, it didn’t. Premise fail.

    Here’s an even more controversial idea. The trade was good for both teams and no one got fleeced. Why does every trade have to have a winner and a loser?

    I don’t want my team to hold serve or break even in trades. I want my team to win trades, using smarts and leverage.

    I’m not so sure how much RJ’s value has improved since he has gone to Toronto.

    His efficiency numbers are obviously much better, but as I’ve mentioned here, he is much more of an off-ball player there, creating his own shot far less often. Assisted baskets way up.

    This is the appropriate way to use him, but it’s also kind of ending the dream of RJ as a competent on-ball, shot-creating player. Guys that can create and get unassisted baskets are just much more valuable, and RJ is just not that. He’s an off-ball scorer that can’t create well and is not a strong defender. That’s still a pass for me.

    I want my team to win trades, using smarts and leverage.

    This is dumb. Trades can be a win/win for both teams involved. Are you Danny Ainge and you only want to fuck other teams out of all their assets? We got a great player who fits perfectly with what we need and Toronto got 2 young players in exchange for that. we also got Precious, who has been much more than a throw in for us.

    And who would Indiana have traded to the Raptors? What other young players comparable to RJ and IQ would they have been able/willing to offer?

    you seem to be obsessed with being right when the team has performed exceptionally well because of getting OG. The Knicks and Raptors had very different goals with that trade. The Knicks were trying to get a player that would take them one step closer to contention. Check. The Raptors were trying to start a rebuild. Check.

    As Bondy said in the Post in the wake of the trade (and I agreed with in real KB time), it wasn’t really a talent/asset accretive move, but a repurposing move. It absolutely served its repurposing function to a T, all the credit to Leon for that, but it could have also been talent/asset accretive. It wasn’t that.

    This is dumb. Trades can be a win/win for both teams involved. Are you Danny Ainge and you only want to fuck other teams out of all their assets?

    Umm … yeah????

    I wouldn’t want to fuck teams so bad that it would impede my ability to make future trades with the “fraternity,” but other than that, of course I’d want to win all my trades. They all do, too.

    It is surprisingly straight forward:

    – If Philly goes 2-0 and Cleveland beats Indiana tonight, the Sixers will likely* finish 7th.

    – If Philly goes 2-0 and Indiana beats Cleveland tonight, the Sixers will likely* finish 6th.

    * likely bc Indiana plays Atlanta at home on the last game that is very likely a win for them.

    I don’t think this is it. If Philly goes 2-0 they could finish 6th irrespective of the Indiana or Cleveland records as long as the Magic lose to the Bucks in their last game.

    I’m just trying to figure out why the BRef odds for Philly as the 6th seed are so low. I suppose them getting to #6 depends on too many unlikely things beyond their own record.

    Edit: I think a Magic/Pacers/Sixers tie mean the Sixers stay at the 7 seed.

    In other controversial topics, I finished the Fallout tv series this morning. I’m curious if anyone here is invested in the lore of the setting, as the show does shake up a few things and has some interesting long-term implications. (Probably best to avoid spoilers, though.)

    I’m your huckleberry Kaminari 😊

    the whole time through the series, every building they entered I had flashbacks to the game – it was so freaking cool…

    I think I saw a deathclaw skull in the sand…

    lore-wise, I sort of remember the story of the different factions and the timing of everything, but mostly I remember the environment and combat…

    was on the Playstation last night looking at some clips from Fallout – I had forgotten how not so great the graphics were…

    honestly I don’t anyone else here really cares about game/series lore – what big discrepancies did you see?

    And the praise for Brunson, it feels great. We may not have a player playing this well for a very very long time. Just have to enjoy it.

    He should be first team all-NBA.

    We just drubbed the Celtics by 35 or whatever pre garbage-time and now the KB-lawyers (other folks, too) are arguing over what counts as ‘trolling’ instead of basking in the glory of a capstone win for this regular season. Be a fan! Lighten up!

    Also, what milo said. I think there was a different version of the trade where empty out a bunch of our pick chest for OG and only trade, say, RJ. All I know is that if that happened this team with IQ in his 6th man role would be nasty.

    That said, I don’t know enough about the cap ramifications, IQ’s preferred payday (at this rate he’s gotta be getting near the max, no? Though, would he have commanded nearly that much if he was in his 6th man role? I doubt it) and whether Leon still intends to go in for a star in the offseason to figure out which outcome I would prefer all things considered. That said, whatever else I’m loving the results!

    Jalen Brunson’s footwork and use of the post-up will revolutionize the game for smaller guards. His game is so advanced and complete. He has too many combinations out of the pivot. Its almost Olajuwonesque.

    always makes me smile to see your words ras – I think maybe cause I like saying he word ras in my head 🙂

    I hope you’ve been well…

    yeah, I mean I’m watching in real time and it is still amazing to me jaken is doing what he does…

    hopefully he can teach that footwork stuff to his teammates…

    Never will forget winning at Chicago in the final game of the 96-97 season to clinch the 3rd seed and prevent the Bulls from winning 70 games back to back seasons. It was also the 57th win for the Knicks yet they wound up playing a Hornets team that won 54 games as the 6th seed. Eastern Conference in the 1990’s had some very good teams that have been lost to history because of MJ.

    Al, I had exactly that game in mind when I said I wanted the Celtics to be at full strength last night. That game in ‘97 got Knicks fans so pumped for the playoffs and I think last night did the same.

    In a sense, you’re trying to Josh Hart each other.

    ha ha ha, nice Bo…yeah man – except there is no payoff or prize to win…just making the wheels on the bus go around and around and around…

    as the Ghoul so accurately exclaimed: this may be the weirdest circle jerk I’ve ever been invited to

    hoping your having a good day today Bo…

    Nothing like the worst morning thread of the season to follow the best win, eh?

    Dogrufus had nothing on you, E.

    Bondy: Q: Does this mean the Knicks are now contenders?

    A: No. In terms of sheer basketball talent, the Knicks didn’t get better.

    Anunoby is not close to an All-Star; he just theoretically fits better next to Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson.

    Return to sender.

    that fit has proven quite a bit more than theoretical.

    @FredKatz
    Isaiah Hartenstein is OUT for tonight’s game vs the Nets, Knicks say, for left Achilles injury management. Second half of a back to back for Hartenstein, who has been rehabbing Achilles tendinopathy.

    Brunson probable (lower right leg contusion). McBride questionable (illness)

    Would rather play things conservatively against an opponent we should beat even at half-strength. It raises two questions, though:

    1)How much does Mitch play, and is Precious the other center, or is Sims?

    2)Does this get Allard Baird out of Thibs’ dungeon if Deuce is out, or might Shake get some run?

    that fit has proven quite a bit more than theoretical.

    It has, which is why I said that it has. The repurposing part of the trade has worked very well.

    Like I said, he was a great player to get. They just paid too much to get him. Apparently this is akin to rooting against baby seals or something, but whatever.

    Figure mitch for about 20 minutes? Mitch’s cardio looks pretty terrible, I don’t imagine he can go much more than that.

    If Philly goes 2-0 they could finish 6th irrespective of the Indiana or Cleveland records as long as the Magic lose to the Bucks in their last game.

    Good point, I’ve been assuming a Magic win in that game. It’s a home game against the Giannis-less (and maybe Dame-less) Bucks that they need to win to avoid the play in, so they’re probably heavily favored and thus it doesn’t move the odds much.

    This is gonna be the Mitch breakout game. I have no reason for saying that or believing that it will happen, but that’s what I want to happen, so I’m willing it to happen.

    The Raptors are 13-34 since that deal, they can put up the E said we won the trade banner.

    Hubert IVsays:
    December 31, 2023 at 11:30
    At least we have some new shit to talk about

    $10 says we’ll still have fights about RJ.

    Hubert what’s your venmo?

    If Hartenstein’s achilles is still being managed it seems justified to criticize Thibs for playing him the whole 4Q last night.

    If Hartenstein’s achilles is still being managed it seems justified to criticize Thibs for playing him the whole 4Q last night.

    Maybe he only did it because he knew he’d have two days off afterwards.

    Also if any game vindicates Thibs’ reluctance to bring in the C squad, last night was it. We might have lost that game if we played any worse in Q4!

    @IanBegley
    For Nets tonight vs NYK, Dennis Schroder is questionable with right Achilles soreness, Cam Johnson (toe sprain) is doubtful and Day’Ron Sharpe (right wrist) is doubtful. Johnson and Sharpe have been downgraded; they were previously questionable to play, per the Nets

    Figure mitch for about 20 minutes? Mitch’s cardio looks pretty terrible, I don’t imagine he can go much more than that.

    honestly a bit worried about mitch overplaying tonight and getting hurt. he is still gassing pretty quickly and when he does it’s a bit of a flopping flounder situation

    honestly a bit worried about mitch overplaying tonight and getting hurt. he is still gassing pretty quickly and when he does it’s a bit of a flopping flounder situation

    Yeah forgive me fellas but I’m afraid of Thibs managing this poorly.

    A lot of the ways I’ve looked at Knicks trades/acquisitions for the last few years have been that none of them solved our big problem-that we had no top 10 player. But we actually do now. If Randle was healthy I think this team would be a legitimate contender.

    in support of Kaminari’s valient effort to turn today’s thread in to Fallout blooger ( 🙂 ) – i humbly submit the following entries:

    1). Timeline
    2077 – Bombs drop
    2102 – Fallout 76
    2161 – Fallout 1
    2197 – Fallout Tactics: Brotherhood of Steel
    2241 – Fallout 2
    2277 – Fallout 3 – finished game, DLC’s, every quest, and checked in damn near every stinking box/cupboard/whatever available
    2281 – Fallout: New Vegas – played a bit
    2287 – Fallout 4 – played a good bit, but ended up getting caught up in “housing” crap until i finally tired of even that
    2296 – Fallout TV show

    2). Lore
    ah, i think i see what you meant Kaminari – previously ghouls were unable to maintain their ghoulish state and would inevitably become feral…

    Ippei Mizuhara, the former interpreter for Shohei Ohtani, is in federal custody after surrendering to law enforcement Friday.

    Mizuhara is accused of stealing more than $16 million over two years from the Los Angeles Dodgers superstar to pay off gambling debts to an illegal sportsbook, according to an affidavit filed by federal authorities Thursday.

    turns out shohei seems to be on the up and up about the gambling stuff…that’s good to hear…

    howdy hubie…

    yes, it’s kind of quirky/campy/ultra-violent…a bit like The Boys…

    the acting is excellent (you’ll recognize almost every face from somewhere else), and the series guidance from nolan and joy is both confident and competent…

    the question i would wonder about – if you did not like Westworld, is there any chance you might like Fallout?

    i’m remembering now the survival mode they had in Fallout 4 – it was brutal gameplay…

    loved all the different drugs (chems) in the game: jet, pyscho, buffout…what a blast to be able to slow combat and just hack and slash away at enemies…

    If Randle was healthy I think this team would be a legitimate contender.

    That’s the question I’ve been pondering since I posed it a few days ago. I’m leaning toward Yes – Brunson would not suffer with another center of gravity, and Julius’s D is fine. The real advantage is size – I’m thinking back to that first Wolves game where we looked tiny. Post-OG trade we seemed to match up much better.

    Point being, with Julius we have enough flexibility and power to mix and match against almost anyone. Jokic is amazing, but I think we would prevail. And even though I think Boston is better on paper, I don’t their toughness and ability to close games. At the very least we’d have a puncher’s shot.

    Without him? Still have a shot but the odds feel much lower to me.

    the question i would wonder about – if you did not like Westworld, is there any chance you might like Fallout?

    Did anyone like Westworld?

    I will say I dove into Ripley recently and loved it. It was a little jarring at first to see dour facsimiles of Damon, Law, and Paltrow but over time it really works. I haven’t read Alan’s review yet but watching it reminded me of his breaking bad reviews. If you liked the way Gilligan showed you everything that went into doing something, you will really enjoy watching this. Who knew watching people climb stairs over and over and over could be so entertaining?

    using the term “overpay” to describe that transaction from the knick perspective is shaky….it can’t be proven in the moment (although at the time of any deal…observers/participants may have an opinion one way or another about whether it was good or bad for their side)…but it certainly cannot be proven (if it can…please explain how)

    one person above correctly pointed out that there is no active market for the asset such that you can point to a “market” price, however, there are many, many instances of an entity buying another entity for a price well in excess of its “market” price and generally, it is not characterized as an “overpay”…there are many reasons why an entity will pay a premium to control the assets of another entity…hence, it is normally described as paying a premium…but that is not viewed as an “overpay”…cuz it is assumed the buyer has properly evaluated the return at that price point and it still makes economic sense…

    E…then points out…correctly…that in absence of a clear, active market for the SAME asset …you can look to other deals of similar assets to gauge price/value…but the obvious inherent problem is that no ballplayer is exactly the same as another and each team will be impacted differently by the inclusion of that asset/player on the roster…hence, the buyer(s) will have different risk/return profiles and one’s overpayment (at least relative to the other) may provide the same return given impact of said asset/player..in sum, we have no idea how each front office is evaluating the IRR on the deal…

    it is easy to call it a success or failure after a certain time period…file for Ch 11 or sell the asset for pennies on the dollar or the dude doesn’t enhance you championship aspirations…but given the efficacy of this trade based on the numbers to date….to continue to suggest it was an overpay……is dubious at best.

    that was a very – um, workmen-like post pepper…

    don’t work so hard…you probably just need to get more comfortable with – doing nothing all day 🙂

    i am doing nothing…just sitting in the office…but…since my business card for the last 30 yrs said “Dude who values stuff” on the bottom…i figured i had to chime in…

    btw…saw the Black Crowes here in Phx on Wed night…it was pretty good…even the dreaded new stuff sounded ok…i think the issue was with the sound guy…the mix was off..but after a few gummies…was solid…

    it’s possible there’s a world in which there was a better version of the OG trade available to us, according to at least some of us. we really, really don’t know how many picks and with what protections toronto might have preferred to IQ, for example. in fact, i’m certain opinions here would vary widely on whether to prefer keeping and paying IQ versus X draft pick outflow. pretty sure i would be an outlier toward the keep IQ side of things, but honestly no idea whether masai might have been even more of an outlier there.

    the issue in terms of blog readability as ever isn’t spitballing the mere possibility, it’s the faux certainty. most people are quite terrible about calibrating or even knowing their actual confidence when they aren’t forced to bet. it doesn’t help that confidence is pithy and attracts more attention, especially because some people are preternaturally annoyed by vapid overconfidence.

    All I’ll say on the issue, which I’ve said plenty of times before, is that Toronto benched PG Dennis Schröder on December 27 and traded for PG Immanuel Quickley on December 30.

    Idk, kind of a weird coincidence.

    pepper, that is a very fair assessment.

    I think it’s fair to say that in one’s opinion, Leon paid a calculated premium. It’s also fair to say that many KB haterz may have underestimated RJ’s current market value, or his potential value to us if utilized differently. However, the whole “overpay” thing is a silly, self-serving way to criticize a trade of this kind. It would be as silly as saying that someone overpaid for buying a stock because the could have bought it a bit cheaper the day before or the day after. You don’t have to buy at the bottom or sell at the top to make a smart transaction, and if you go bottom or top fishing you might get burned way worse. If you start hemming and hawing because you don’t want to include RJ, IQ, or a bunch of picks, someone else can swoop in and you miss out on a golden opportunity by pinching pennies and there are no analogs available on the market.

    But that said, I think the whole premise of paying a premium in this case is debatable. Seems like a pretty even trade at worst to me. I was surprised that Masai went for what we offered.

    Frank Isola DESTROYS Knickerblogger

    Frank Isola
    @TheFrankIsola
    ·
    2h
    In Joel Embiid’s fifth game back from knee surgery he played 35 minutes and 49 seconds. In Tyler Herro’s fourth game back from a foot injury he played a career high 47:39 in a double OT win. Next night he played 35:40. And yet, not a peep from the New York-based Minutes Police.

    I think it’s fair to say that in one’s opinion, Leon paid a calculated premium. It’s also fair to say that many KB haterz may have underestimated RJ’s current market value, or his potential value to us if utilized differently. However, the whole “overpay” thing is a silly, self-serving way to criticize a trade of this kind.

    If you accept the first two things, then the overpay thing becomes correct, by definition.

    It’s again really unclear what you’re even arguing so much about, beyond just wanting to argue. No one can really interpret your tone police/aesthetic stuff, beyond noting that this is just another episode in your long, continuing series of, “X is fair, I agree; Y is fair, I agree; but stop saying the Z that follows from X and Y the way you’re saying it.”

    They overpaid for OG. You basically think so yourself. So just go with it and stop trying to police what other people say here.

    Hubie will hate me for this, but I’m just the messenger:

    @TheFrankIsola

    In Joel Embiid’s fifth game back from knee surgery he played 35 minutes and 49 seconds. In Tyler Herro’s fourth game back from a foot injury he played a career high 47:39 in a double OT win. Next night he played 35:40. And yet, not a peep from the New York-based Minutes Police.

    If Randle was healthy I think this team would be a legitimate contender.

    Without a doubt, but I still think we have a chance against every team. Without Randle, Brunson will be heavily defended and our offense might go to a halt… but still we could have DiVo making them pay for doubles, and iHart/Mitch hoarding Orebs to keep the offense going.

    but given the efficacy of this trade based on the numbers to date… to continue to suggest it was an overpay……is dubious at best.

    I’m not weighing in on the answer here, just the process.

    If you had judged the Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz trade based on the efficacy of the results in the first 3 months, you might have laughed at the person who thought Detroit overpaid.

    It’s entirely possible we overpaid and it’s equally impossible we didn’t. It’s kind of crazy any of you have certainty, and it’s amazing that all of you thought the faux certainty comment only applied to E.

    E by how much did the Knicks overpay for OG?

    Ask Z-Man to give us the sum total of the “calculated premium” Leon paid and the “underestimation of RJ’s market value.”

    That can be a good starting point.

    Loved seeing pepper’s post since I’m currently studying for the ABV (accredited in business valuation) exam. Dude hit the nail on the head re: the OG trade. Privately-held assets do not have a uniform value for all potential buyers. The “correct” price to pay is context-specific to each potential buyer. Leon may have thought OG would fit better with the Knicks than the Raptors and therefore put a higher value on OG than what E believes to be the true price. I think Leon was correct based on the numbers to date.

    The “correct” price to pay is context-specific to each potential buyer.

    The correct price to pay is as little as possible above the next highest bidder. (*) It has nothing to do with the asset’s value to you. If you get the asset for less than its value to you, you might be happy — but you still overpaid.(**)

    (*) And, yes, Leon should have had a solid feel for other market participants and how they valued the player. That’s his job.

    (**) That’s basically the Knicks/OG situation.

    E what was the next highest bid for OG? You don’t know that either. It’s all a very stupid discussion.

    I think the Knicks underpaid for OG btw. RJ Barrett’s entire Knick’s tenure ranged from mediocre to terrible. His play actively harmed the team’s chances of winning games. More liability than asset at his contract. Leon did well turning him, IQ and the picks into OG.

    E what was the next highest bid for OG?

    There might not have even been another bid at the time Leon paid what he paid.

    Leon’s opening salvo should have been something like a 1 and a fugazi 1. That might have been enough in and of itself. He used the trade to try to also “solve” the IQ “problem” — itself a massive blunder.

    honestly a bit worried about mitch overplaying tonight and getting hurt. he is still gassing pretty quickly and when he does it’s a bit of a flopping flounder situation

    Yeah forgive me fellas but I’m afraid of Thibs managing this poorly.

    I have more confidence that you, Hubert.

    MR played 12 and 19 minutes his first two games back and he needed to miss one after that. In his subsequent seven straight games he hasn’t played more than 19 minutes. He is clearly on a strict minutes restriction and the idea of increasing that markedly today on the back end of a back to back would be unconscionable.

    Don’t become a member of Pagliacci’s Circus of Despair.

    The correct price to pay is as little as possible above the next highest bidder.

    We don’t know what any other bids were. In fact, we don’t even know if there were any other bidders.

    How do we know the Knicks overpaid? We simply don’t. Let’s all move on.

    different strokes for different folks hubie and al…

    let me ask you each – are there any “futuristic” shows which you do enjoy?

    The Expanse, Battlestar Galactica, or Star Trek perhaps…

    maybe not Fallout, but I found Westworld to be extremely thought provoking in a number of ways: nature of folks/data collection/ai…

    I guess the eye-candy aspect of the productions didn’t get you either…

    “If you accept the first two things, then the overpay thing becomes correct, by definition.”

    I don’t accept the first two things. I merely think it’s fair to feel that way, just like it’s fair to look at RJ’s miserable stats as a Knick and conclude that he was indeed a salary dump. You inserted the words “I agree” to suit your own purposes. I even said in my post that the whole premise of paying a premium (along the lines of pepper’s thinking) is debatable, and made it clear that I don’t think that Leon did.

    “So just go with it and stop trying to police what other people say here.”

    You can say whatever the fuck you want here, and so can anyone else. If you don’t like my posts, just skip them! No one is forcing you to respond, like you weirdly felt compelled to this morning.

    For now, I’ll defer to TNFH’s wise posting today. He has you pegged perfectly. So do the folks that post E-percentage of posting on the many threads you hijack while dying on some stupid hill, or who derisively bring you up by name even when you aren’t binge-arguing.

    Geo, I love many Star Treks (my son and I are nearly finished with Deep Space Nine’s final season), BSG, and plenty of other sci-fi. The genre’s not the issue with me for either of these two. Westworld became obsessed with trying to outsmart its audience after viewers sniffed out the first season’s big twist after only a couple of episodes, and the plot quickly became impenetrable.

    Let’s all move on.

    why would E want to move on DR ed – he’s already got you hooked…

    now he’s just playing with his food…

    I recall the hive mind spent weeks boldly declaring that RJ Barrett was priced as a toxic asset in the trade and the 2nd round pick was included as the cost of moving him. Where exactly did you guys get those facts from? You were privy to the conversations between Leon and Masai?

    That was faux certainty. Just like when you boldly declare that “there’s no way Isaiah Hartenstein would have accepted a 3rd year” with the benefit of hindsight.

    It’s the white and gold/blue and black dress picture from Facebook all over again.

    I don’t accept the first two things. I merely think it’s fair to feel that way,

    Doesn’t matter.

    If it’s “fair to feel” that Leon paid a “calculated premium” and it’s “fair to feel” that RJ was undervalued, then by definition it’s “fair to feel” that the Knicks overpaid (and then in turn more than fair to wonder what you’re even arguing about).

    in my time doing what i do…i think the least capable financial people I dealt with are lawyers…mostly in damage cases…E is solidifying my experience once again…

    Dude…premium doesn’t equal overpay (if it does….please explain that one to me)…but really, like I said…please tell me what equation you use to conclude on overpay…i want to copy it and sell it and make tons of money off of it…

    @ hubert…you of all people …who like to point out individuals misappropriating your words…I never said in my diatribe…at this point it is definitively one thing or another…i only said at this point…given the returns…it is not the best time to make the assertion we gave up too much…it will likely never be clear…

    Dude…premium doesn’t equal overpay (if it does….please explain that one to me)

    How else would you interpret the term “premium” other than “premium to market”?

    Paying a premium to market is … overpaying.

    Another way to look at it is that the seller doesn’t care about how valuable the player is to you because he’s not going to be able to get that value for the player if no one bids it. The seller’s only interested in getting the most for the asset and that depends solely on the bidding for the asset.

    In basketball terms, the “premium” should have been put toward other players to make the Knicks even more formidable, which is like the whole entire point of the discussion.

    Leon’s opening salvo should have been something like a 1 and a fugazi 1. That might have been enough in and of itself. He used the trade to try to also “solve” the IQ “problem” — itself a massive blunder.

    I’m curious what a Massive blunder” is in your eyes 🙂

    Clearly, Rose and IQ’s camp chatted about if they could come to a meeting of the minds on an extension, and equally clearly they were very far apart. So, Rose is left in the position to either grossly overpay (in his mind) the player or use him as an asset to get a player he coveted (for obvious reasons).

    The notion that OG could have been had for our 20 odd pick this year and a fugazi pick is so divorced from reality it isn’t worth discussing.

    Sorry, Pepper, I quoted you just to continue from the premise you started, not because I meant to address you directly. That comment was for anyone who thinks there is a definitive answer, not you.

    The notion that OG could have been had for our 20 odd pick this year and a fugazi pick is so divorced from reality it isn’t worth discussing.

    That’s simply another hive mind assertion, just like the RJ stuff.

    And I said it should have been his opening salvo. The player in question is a UFA at the end of the year, significantly dampening his market.

    I’m sorry but I sent remember a time a trade happened in the NBA and we were then told by the media that this team’s offer beat out this other team’s offer. The only instance I can really remember was the Melo trade and Brooklyn but even then I don’t remember the nets ever actually making an offer just that we made a ridiculous one bc there were rumors they were willing to make one.

    I just have never seen it where this player gets traded and were told what other teams made offers and what those offers were.

    But a simple OG Anuby trade rumors google search and a few seconds of scrolling you will find tons of articles of speculation going back to last year about various teams that were interested in him.

    I do sometimes look at RJ’s line. It is kind of strange how his TS% is over 60 and yet somehow his WS/48 is identical to what it was in NY.

    I honestly can’t imagine a world where we are better without OG. In every way he is everything that RJ wasn’t. He plays world class defense. He hits his open threes. He dunks with real authority. And he doesn’t fight with Brunson over the ball.

    I agree with Dred. If Randle were healthy we would be contenders. You have to give Leon a lot of credit.

    I didn’t see this coming. I thought we should go for a long rebuild. The FO has done a pretty amazing job of pivoting and has assembled a really good team here in the space of two years.

    Leon take the wheel. You have earned my trust for the moment (but don’t incinerate anything.)

    And James Dolan, I am giving you credit too, for buzzing off and losing all your money on the Sphere.

    Paying a premium to market is … overpaying.

    But you don’t know the market price. That’s what everyone is trying to tell you, and they’re right.

    If it’s “fair to feel” that Leon paid a “calculated premium” and it’s “fair to feel” that RJ was undervalued, then by definition it’s “fair to feel” that the Knicks overpaid (and then in turn more than fair to wonder what you’re even arguing about).

    It is certainly fair to feel anything. It is also fair for others to feel your assertions about player values are divorced from reality and generally are shaped to buttress some other overall narrative.

    I’m curious what a Massive blunder” is in your eyes 🙂

    a massive blunder is spending your time thinking about what a massive blunder is – reference some shit from the past, that no longer influences the present or future…

    time moves forward, not backwards…

    Edit: actually time doesn’t move at all…it’s just a simple human construct to mark events, or something like that…

    so anytime a company pays a “premium to market” they have definitionally overpaid? I think eugene fama just rolled over in his grave..

    i think miriam webster has it as the definition of overpaid is “paying too much”….but E definition is either (a) paying over the market price (for which there is no observable one in this market) or (b) paying more then the next highest bidder (which as someone highlighted already…will never be know until Leon and/or Masa write a novel about the deal)…so…it can’t be proven…it is suggested or opined on…but if you do either of those and then when asked for the composition of the fact pattern as to which lead you to conclude and neither of those is known…how does that work?

    premiums are paid knowing the return on the entire price paid will provide the required fair return for the asset you just purchased…it doesn’t mean you overpaid…you just paid what you knew you could to get the return you required…how is that so hard to understand?

    and Dink…good luck on the exam…did it awhile back..but can’t recall how horrendous it was…or wasn’t…

    We’re “overpaying” for E’s attention. Let’s move on and pivot this thread back to playoff matchups/scenarios please!

    Adam Silver must be manically laughing about having so many games be meaningful the last weekend in the NBA. Still needs to address the awful refereeing we saw this year. (Though gambling sites will say nothing to see here)

    Does Orlando remind anyone of the 2020-2021 Knicks? Defensive-minded, overachieving team lead by a do everything power forward, young secondary scorer seemingly coming into his own, but ultimately team is too offensively challenged to make real noise. The similarities are pretty stark imo

    “…is so divorced from reality it isn’t worth discussing.”

    This. And yet here we are, 176 posts on one of the more ridiculous, moronic threads in KB history, wildly discussing things so divorced from reality that they aren’t worth discussing.

    Reminder — a troll isn’t just a horrible little monster. It’s also a fisherman, hoping something will bite his shiny little lure. A fish might be attracted to the lure, but it doesn’t have to bite.

    Tomorrow, let’s all show that we have more brains than a perch.

    But you don’t know the market price. That’s what everyone is trying to tell you, and they’re right.

    well everyone except the guy who is mad at Leon’s opening offer despite not knowing what it was.

    I didn’t want to give up IQ, because I thought he had the highest reasonably attainable upside in the deal. But if we’d stayed healthy we could have seriously contended this season, it’s a pretty defensible trade. (this is all assuming we have a good idea on what OG is going to cost going forward and are willing to pay it)

    Edit: actually time doesn’t move at all…it’s just a simple human construct to mark events, or something like that…

    Professors Einstein and Hawking would like a word with you, sir…. 🙂

    Boston sitting everyone tonight after the ass whooping they took last night.

    That was faux certainty. Just like when you boldly declare that “there’s no way Isaiah Hartenstein would have accepted a 3rd year” with the benefit of hindsight.

    I’ll readily admit to posting with undeserved certainty at times if I’m shown where I’ve done it, semantic care isn’t put into all my posts. But some of us will respond to new and relevant data and some of us won’t. Z-man has done it at times and has provoked a lot of antagonism. Earlier this season another poster cited Donte & Brunson’s hot shooting as a reason the offense would inevitably tank, sticking to the claim even after others pointed out that several other Knicks were undershooting their career averages and the numbers would balance out. He also generated a lot of antagonism. I have when I do it.

    I posted in response to a claim along the lines of “Rose fucked up by not giving iHart 3yrs”. There’s no reason to think iHart would have accepted such an offer given that he had virtually the same level of impact for the Clippers as he is currently having for the Knicks (he’s BPM was actually higher in LA).

    My argument is simply that a player producing a $25M/yr value shouldn’t accept a deal that would pay him ~$11M for a third year. Instead, he should test the market once he’s proved the play wasn’t an outlier. If Hartenstein had taken a 3rd year he’d probably be making a lot less money next year and that was foreseeable based on his play before the contract.

    I didn’t know winning trades was as simple as offering a terrible pick for a star player and then telling the other GM that since there’s no other offers for that player they should simply accept what has been offered.

    I didn’t mean to call you out specifically, EB. I think a dozen people have made the same comment.

    Mona Lisa is overpriced
    ;-p

    No question, but only because Leon added a couple of 2nd rounders to the Washington protected 1st to get her… 😉

    got you al, it felt “contrived” and disengenoious to you…

    yeah, that’ll definitely break your immersion, and get a bit annoying…

    Deep Space Nine was fun…my favorite though was captain janeway and the voyager crew…

    i want a holodeck 🙂

    Professors Einstein and Hawking would like a word with you, sir…. 🙂

    you got me E, talking out of my ass…

    it’s funny, my friend checks me all time: is that really true

    here you go, this is milo’s man sean carroll explaining shit:
    The mind-bending physics of time

    he mindfucks you about as gently as any abnormally intelligent human can…

    Nba players are overpaid just like souvlaki is super expensive nowadays but compared to space missions and wars around the globe they re actually a bargain!
    😉

    I didn’t mean to call you out specifically, EB. I think a dozen people have made the same comment.

    No worries. You’re right that I did oversell it the other day though.

    Comments are closed.