Knicks Morning News (2024.04.02)

2 minute report upheld the non call, btw. Said “Dort jumps to contest Brunson’s shot, and following contact by Hartenstein on Dort, Dort makes incidental contact with Brunson after the shot is released.”

That’s some high level circling the wagons, and doesn’t bode well for future changes.

“If Knicks go ____, they’ll probably finish ____.
……………
3-5, in a three-way tie for 5th
2-6, 7th”

After the so-very-exciting promise of January, I almost cannot imagine how sad either of these would feel to me at this point. 7th place especially makes me shudder.

Whatever happened to good old media availability sessions, where reporters can actually ask questions of players? By this I don’t mean:

“Hey, Mitch! Do you think that Thibs left you out on the floor too long? Did you ask out of the game and he wouldn’t take you out?”

I mean more like:

“Hey, OG! How is your elbow feeling? Do you think you might be able to return during the regular season, or is returning for the playoffs more of a realistic goal for you?”
“Hey, Julius! Do you think we might be able to see you out on the floor again this season, at some point? What are your timing options for surgery?”

Or would the players have just been directed to give vague answers such as: “You’ll have to ask the medical staff.”?

I’ve had orthopedic issues, with MRIs, medical interventions, rehab, etc. as I’m sure many here have. I’ve fired doctors, gotten misdiagnosed, had lingering pain, gotten second and third opinions, all the rest.

Give me the same problem OG has and the same timeline/result, and I’m thinking the surgeon/medical team botched my problem pretty badly. Either in the execution of the surgery itself, the objective of the surgery, or the overall diagnosis and/or treatment plan. According to Bondy, his elbow is still significantly swollen. That should not remotely be happening two months after arthroscopic surgery for a bone chip.

Or, I guess, it’s possible the Knicks are pretty much just making shit up about the injury for public consumption, and something else is going on.

So while he should have been shut down immediately after screaming in pain after a plain vanilla basketball/orthopedic movement, at this point I don’t think Thibs’s insanity is the primary problem.

Might be the biggest game of the regular season tonight. We’re standing on a knife’s edge. Plus 4 games in 6 nights coming up with a shorthanded squad, and all of them are hard.

It’s Miami. Which of our players that is currently (relatively) healthy and playing is going to come out of this one banged up?

I would imagine an attorney and a professional basketball player use their arms differently

Given the parameters with neither Randle nor OG looking like they will be back in coming days, I’m sort of resigned to the strong possibility that we will wind up either in the 6 or 7 seed, and will be surprised if we finish higher. The 3 seed is looking more and more out of reach, and frankly, I’d prefer the 6 to the 4 or 5. That would ensure avoiding MIA in round 1 and BOS in round 2, and if one or both of those two are back and effective by round 1, we could have the best chance to advance from #6. As to #7 and the play-in, my feeling is that if we can’t win a play-in game, we aren’t going anywhere anyway, and if those guys miraculously come back strong, we could try to replicate what MIA pulled off last year. Obviously #6 would be way preferable to #7, both because of the much-needed rest and the potential opponent.

Good god have y’all seen Luka’s greatest HORSE shot of all time?

https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/39849372

bring back all star horse

Did that ever actually exist? If so, I don’t remember it.

But whether it did or did not exist in the past, that is an *outstanding* idea, DRed! I really think that the players could have fun with that, which means that it might actually mean something to them to participate in it!

At this point, just seed wherever and see what happens. We should be able to avoid the play-in but I’m not expecting anything beyond that at this point. If Brunson plays at his peak level and DDV and the role players are playing well, I think we can still win a round. But without OG and Randle I don’t see much beyond that anymore. Although Brunson did drag the MAVS to the conference finals without Luka 2 seasons ago, so anything is possible.

I do think maybe The Knicks are playing it close to the chest with Randle and OG and are possibly just keeping them out till the last possible moment just to play it safe.

OR they could be super duper injured and we fucked all this up.

Either way, the FO and Thibs HAVE to address this in the off season. There needs to be a plan in place for next season.

I very vaguely remember it but I had to google to make sure I wasn’t making that up. They’ve apparently tried it once in the 70s, and then from 08/09 to /09/10 and then they had a weird NBA/WNBA crossover thing during covid that Mike Conley won

There is no plan for overcoming missing your entire starting frontcourt especially when your taking about one player who averages 25 and 10 and another who’s arguably the best perimeter defender in the entire league.

That’s a gut-wrenching story about Utah GM Justin Zanik and his three kids all needing kidney transplants…

Pelicans might drop down to the play in because they don’t have Ingram

Sixers without Joel are terrible

I posted yesterday when you take Brunson off the court with this current roster they perform as a bottom 5 NBA team. So unless you want Thibs playing Brunson 48 minutes these other players need to step up.

There is no plan for overcoming missing your entire starting frontcourt

I was referring more to a plan in place for next season re: load management, etc.

There is no plan if you miss your entire front court. But I believe that many of the arguments people make about Thibs and minutes distribution are valid.

To be clear – I don’t think it’s some injustice for a player to play over 40 minutes a game sometimes or even 2 games in a row.

But I do think the shortened rotation all season, playing dudes like OG super heavy minutes for weeks at a time. Not pulling Mitch when he was clearly limping. Not pulling OG when he screamed out in pain after just being back from surgery….these are very valid concerns. We shouldn’t just dismiss them the same way we shouldn’t blame thibs for every ankle tweak that happens.

IMO, its a combination of things. Thibs plays a 9 man rotation. But if one person goes down, then he plays an 8 man rotation. Then he plays a 7 man. It’s kind of insane. McBride has played great since the RJ and IQ were traded. Why wasn’t he in the rotation before that? Last season he was put in the rotation and we immediately got better. HE struggled offensively but he steadily improved. Then we traded for Hart and instead of expanding to a 10 man rotation, Thibs took McBride out of the rotation completely. This season we come back after a full off season, training camp, etc…and Thibs still keeps him out of the rotation. But him and IQ could have been in the back court together since IQ is also more of a combo guard.

He only got back in the rotation when we traded out 2 rotation players. But he immediately player well. So why did it take so long for him to be in the circle of trust?

A 9 man rotation all regular season is not sustainable. If we had a 10 man rotation all season, would tehse injuries have still happened? Probably. But BRunson has been banged up, iHart banged up, etc.

To be clear…some of it is on Leon too. Hoarding picks for a future star trade is all well and good and yes, the 11th through 15th dudes on a roster are usually not good. But Leon needs to stock that end of the bench with young players with potential that can be given a shot when someone goes down.

I’m not giving up on the 3 seed quite yet. If we can go 4-4 that might just do it. the Cavs will likely go 3-4 and we have the tiebreaker.

As for the Magic, they have a pretty easy schedule in the near term (other than the Pels tomorrow) but they do play the Bucks twice more and those games will probably matter to the Bucks.

Keep hope alive!

Although Brunson did drag the MAVS to the conference finals without Luka 2 seasons ago, so anything is possible.

jalen is the best jalen rules we love jalen but also that’s a bit of a postmodern take on the original. mavs started 2-1 without luka against the jazz in round 1 and jalen definitely did drag them to those two wins. luka played the other 15 playoff games that year and was 4th in the entire nba in playoff vorp.

We’re projecting a lot of negativity onto silence. It’s reasonable to do that but it’s not certain. I’ve still got hope OG, Mitch, and Randle will be back.

But I’m legitimately worried about the prospect of more injuries occurring this week. Thibs is managing Brunson and Hartenstein extremely well, but the other three starters are carrying a very heavy load.

Donte has to be managed like a relief pitcher. He’s great on rest. Pitch him three days in a row and he tails off quickly. People talk about regression, but the correlation between his shooting slumps and his minutes increases is pretty stark. He just played 89 minutes in two games. It’s perhaps not a shock that his shooting tailed off towards the end.

If we win tonight it opens up a 4 game lead over Miami for the play in with 7 to play. If we clinch not making the play in I would start giving guys days off. 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th… It’s not worth running these guys into the ground over.

If we lose tonight, it’s a bunch up for the play in game, and avoiding the play in will be sufficient cause to keep these going like it’s game 7 for the next 2 weeks.

Hence the biggest game of the season, IMO.

OG Anunoby is 26 and is in line for a huge contract. He is also injury prone, having reached the 2000 minute plateau only twice in his career. This year he’s going to end up having played fewer than 50 games. He has played 1500 minutes this season and does not figure to rack up many more.

He’s a great fit for us and we need to bring him back. I love his game. When he’s on the court he makes a huge impact. But we are kidding ourselves if we don’t admit that there is a pretty good chance his next contract could turn out to be disastrous. I mean, the guy tasked with protecting that investment is Tom Thibodeau.

It’s not hard at all to see how this could go terribly wrong.

Donte has to be managed like a relief pitcher. He’s great on rest. Pitch him three days in a row and he tails off quickly. People talk about regression, but the correlation between his shooting slumps and his minutes increases is pretty stark. He just played 89 minutes in two games. It’s perhaps not a shock that his shooting tailed off towards the end.

asking for a friend: if i try to spend some minutes testing this is there a formulation that comes to mind that would convince you it isn’t true or would it probably end up as ‘well that doesn’t really accurately effect the most relevant cumulative load’

He’s a great fit for us and we need to bring him back. I love his game. When he’s on the court he makes a huge impact. But we are kidding ourselves if we don’t admit that there is a pretty good chance his next contract could turn out to be disastrous. I mean, the guy tasked with protecting that investment is Tom Thibodeau.

Yes his injury history was well known to the Knicks when the trade was made and they have no choice but to keep him because they gave up RJ and IQ to get him here.

jalen is the best jalen rules we love jalen but also that’s a bit of a postmodern take on the original. mavs started 2-1 without luka against the jazz in round 1 and jalen definitely did drag them to those two wins. luka played the other 15 playoff games that year and was 4th in the entire nba in playoff vorp.

Obviously he meant Luka Samanic who very explicably did not play

Either way, the FO and Thibs HAVE to address this in the off season. There needs to be a plan in place for next season.

Pretty easy to plan for, IMO.

We need a backup PG. Thibs loves Dennis Smith. We can probably nab him with the taxpayer MLE or the biannual exception.

With this kind of depth there’s never going to be a need to overextend our players:

1 Brunson / Smith
2 Donte / Deuce / Hart
3 OG / Hart / Bojan
4 Randle / Precious / Bojan
5 Hartenstein / Mitch / Sims

Then use all three of our draft picks on the BPA to round out the roster.

We might not be able to do this and stay under the second apron if OG signs for the absolute max ($40mm). If he signs for $30-35mm as has been rumored, we’re good.

Or we might just have to waive Bojan. Which I’m fine with. Why wait for a trade that may never materialize?

Or we just go over the second apron, which I’m also fine with, if that’s our team.

asking for a friend: if i try to spend some minutes testing this is there a formulation that comes to mind that would convince you it isn’t true or would it probably end up as ‘well that doesn’t really accurately effect the most relevant cumulative load’

Milo I know that often my analysis can be cursory, and I’m very open minded when you counter with evidence that I’m wrong. You just did it the other day with the comeback numbers and I tipped my cap.

Here’s what I’m basing my opinion on: Donte’s first shooting slump of the season occurred after he tweaked his hamstring on 2/14 after playing too many minutes for a long stretch of games.

Good god have y’all seen Luka’s greatest HORSE shot of all time?

haha. insane! thx. so good it looks AI generated.

Kel’el Ware seems like a natural fit for us in the draft— nimble 7 footer who is a strong pick and roll defender and help defender. Can also pass a little bit and shows flashes of having a decent jumper. Relatively high floor guy, is almost certainly a better player than Jericho Sims already and could probably develop into a nice playable C in a short amount of time.

Second pick, go with an upside play like Kyshawn George from Miami, who is a long wing with good athleticism and some playmaking ability but might be available because he is still a bit raw. Somebody might take a flyer on him before us but if he’s around when we pick he’s a perfect upside play kind of pick.

Third pick, go with a sniper in the Bogey mold like Tristan da Silva, older prospect at 23 but probably close to ready to contribute as a bench scorer. Can shoot a little bit off the bounce and has NBA range. Also will rebound a bit. Not a great defender but this is a second round pick so all of these guys have flaws.

I don’t bother to do deep draft scouting anymore because we rarely use our picks, but these aren’t the only interesting players who might be available when we pick.

Here’s what I’m basing my opinion on: Donte’s first shooting slump of the season occurred after he tweaked his hamstring on 2/14 after playing too many minutes for a long stretch of games.

Sorry, didn’t finish…

Then after a series of games on the west coast in which he averaged reasonable minutes (29-31 mpg), he came back home and exploded for two games, but he played 41 mpg in them, and his shooting dipped again after.

He played 33 mins in Toronto, came off that and had a good game in San Antonio, played 49 mins then had another bad shooting game.

This is all small sample sizes but I believe 40 mpg is too much for him and I see multiple shooting dips in his game log when he starts to play 40 mpg two games or more in a row.

I would imagine an attorney and a professional basketball player use their arms differently

I don’t know… I imagine many lawyers work their elbows pretty hard pounding the table in court when they don’t have the facts nor the law to pound 🙂

Third pick, go with a sniper in the Bogey mold like Tristan da Silva,

Love Tristan, but he climbed the boards. We’d be lucky if he’s available with our first pick.

Read the Tyler Kolek draft profile (he’s 31) and hop on the train!

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/?_ga=2.216734546.551572839.1712077106-1110561454.1686967013

I like Tyler Kolek too, possible upside play, but he also gives me Malachi Flynn vibes

Macri’s newsletter today was a kind of ode to Deuce and iHart, and to me it raised an interesting question:

Let’s say for the playoffs we have have OG back, but not Randle (seems reasonably likely).

Is it possible the best starting lineup is Brunson-Deuce-DDV-OG-iHart? It is of course much smaller than Thibs, or anyone else for that matter, would like, but if we’re without Randle we’ll be forced into all kinds of suboptimal decisions so you can’t rule it out on those grounds alone.

I just don’t see how you can take Deuce out of the *heavy* rotation with him looking like one of our best two-way players lately. Hart would of course still get plenty of time off the bench, and if the lack of size is being exploited you could always adjust quickly.

People talk about regression, but the correlation between his shooting slumps and his minutes increases is pretty stark. He just played 89 minutes in two games. It’s perhaps not a shock that his shooting tailed off towards the end.

Fair enough, but you also have to factor in his recent shooting splurge took place against DET, SA and Tor who are all in the bottom 1/3rd of the league in D rating. Like most things, the truth lays somewhere in the middle, but if we shorten his minutes back up to 24 again, he isn’t going to have a TS% like he did in his supernova month.

He’s a great fit for us and we need to bring him back. I love his game. When he’s on the court he makes a huge impact. But we are kidding ourselves if we don’t admit that there is a pretty good chance his next contract could turn out to be disastrous. I mean, the guy tasked with protecting that investment is Tom Thibodeau.

It’s not hard at all to see how this could go terribly wrong.

JK, it already has. Whatever happened in January, we have lost the IQ trade in terms of value for this season and the playoffs. IQ would turn our team’s main weakness into a strength and be available for the postseason, while every possible sign points to OG being out for the playoffs or severely hindered to the point where he can’t hit the rim from the corner 3.

With what we gave up in the trade, we have no choice but to retain him at whatever his price will be. It’s very plausible to suspect we’ll be paying 35M for 35 games a year.

It’s really an anomaly that we don’t have a contract like this in the mold of Houston, McDyess, or Amare. Dolan’s Razor, like nature, abhors a vacuum.

I’m waiting until we have some more clarity on our picks, which players will be declaring, etc. before doing a full deep dive but much to my surprise Kolek continues to be mocked in a gettable range for us. I think he’d be a great get.

Tyler Smith is interesting to me too. He’s a 4/5 hybrid type who really showed out offensively for the Ignite this year. Apparently there are…defensive concerns, to say the least. But there are serious tools there and you wonder if he could be coached up.

I’m somewhat fascinated by Colin Murray-Boyles. He was a fringe top-100 recruit who basically dominated on both ends for South Carolina. He might have the most fun highlight package of any college player in this draft–there’s truly a-little-to-a-lot of everything. The concerns about him are pretty much entirely body related–he’s only 6’7″ so he’ll absolutely need to develop a 3PT shot. Personally, I’d have no problem rolling the dice on someone as versatile as him.

You and that month!

My expectation for Donte is not whatever he did in December. It’s ~40% 3P shooting on high volume, which is his two year average.

Pagliacci, did dogrufus get banned for being too dark or is that a new thing?

Johnny Furphy from Kansas would be an interesting pick as a 6’9 wing with some shooting and I’m also intrigued by the overall skill level package and size for a wing in Jaylon Tyson.

“Is it possible the best starting lineup is Brunson-Deuce-DDV-OG-iHart? It is of course much smaller than Thibs, or anyone else for that matter, would like, but if we’re without Randle we’ll be forced into all kinds of suboptimal decisions so you can’t rule it out on those grounds alone.
I just don’t see how you can take Deuce out of the *heavy* rotation with him looking like one of our best two-way players lately. Hart would of course still get plenty of time off the bench, and if the lack of size is being exploited you could always adjust quickly.”

@TNFH: I *love* Deuce, but I love him even more as our spark off the bench, especially considering that we’re pretty sure by now that we cannot rely on the B&B Boys formerly of Detroit for much of anything at all.

I agree with you that having OG but not having Julius instinctually is feeling more and more like what reality will look like for us in the playoffs. I’d go with Brunson-Hart-DDV-OG-iHart. Kind of small for sure, but not as small as with Deuce, and this group “plays bigger than their actual size.” Lastly, it maximizes the ‘Nova synergy, which I believe is not getting enough ink here. I think it’s humongous.

I guess it depends on how you define slump, but just glancing at Donte’s game log the closest thing he had to one was a 6 game stretch in March, and he hurt his hammy in early february

Point is, there are once again going to be prospects worth taking a flyer on when we’re on the clock. We should probably just go ahead and do that for once.

Pagliacci, did dogrufus get banned for being too dark or is that a new thing?

Dogrufus was so dark he made me look like a ray of sunshine, but the doom he foresaw did come to pass.

I recognize that I am in a blue period though, and I will try to avoid getting too far into melancholia. The way this season has played out has just been so deflating. I’m far more comfortable with the usual outlook over the last 30 years (total hopelessness with no end in sight) than this tantalizing mirage of a great team.

I’m far more comfortable with the usual outlook over the last 30 years (total hopelessness with no end in sight) than this tantalizing mirage of a great team.

Come on, man! Cheer up! There is most likely playoff basketball in our future! We’re close! Just a bit of bad luck with injuries.

The team can come back as is next year, kick ass right out of the gate and the team can load manage a little better and we’ll be good to go.

Plus, we do have that potential big trade still on the table!

The season is not over. The darkest night is before the dawn, lol!

That’s a gut-wrenching story about Utah GM Justin Zanik and his three kids all needing kidney transplants…

Yeah, it’s very sad and also they’re a bit unlucky, the kids had a 50/50 chance and all three have it. 🙁 But they are fighters, so maybe they can win this battle.

Point is, there are once again going to be prospects worth taking a flyer on when we’re on the clock. We should probably just go ahead and do that for once.

I’m with you, we should use our picks. And if 1 or 2 go on to be a good rotation player, next season we won’t need to waste assets on bringing the next Alec & Bojan.

NBACentral
@TheDunkCentral
·
2h
NBA agent thinks O.G. Anunoby could command 4-year, $150M contract

Some small sample size fun to cope with the bleakness I am also feeling.

Deuce since being put into the starting lineup 7 games ago:

19.1 PPG, 3.6:0.6 AST/TO, 50/46/93 shooting splits, .686 TS%

Of course, since he’s been playing 45 minutes per game during this time he’s the rare example of a player whose stats go down significantly with a per-36 adjustment so his usage is still somewhat low.

Still, being able to handle those minute totals in a pinch is a good thing in and of itself and we’re approaching a point where one’s priors on his ceiling should be adjusted. It’s an unambiguously good thing for the team moving forward.

Noble, i think if OG is back for the playoffs you have to send Deuce or DDV to the 2nd unit. Hart has been reluctant to shoot to a point that he’ll kill the 2nd unit, given that the Detroit brothers lost the ability to shoot during the trip to NY. But i think you might be right, maybe Deuce deserves to be the one starting and we can have DDV as the 6th man.

My picks at our range (21, 24, 39):

Terrence Shannon Jr.: I like him more than McCullar as far as “older plug-and-play” guys go. He’s got more bounce and more scoring chops, and projects more reliably as a shooter at the next level. He’s pretty old, but that shouldn’t stop us from taking him–he’s been quite productive since his freshman year. A problem: he has an outstanding rape charge. So I’d prefer we didn’t draft him for that alone, but if that were shown to be groundless he’d be a good pickup.

Kolek: Great looking backup PG, pretty much in agreement with Noble and Hubert.

Jared McCain: Probably out of our range after his tournament run, but he has genuine lead guard chops despite the subpar passing. Old for a freshman at 20, but undeniably productive. He was playing with quite a few guards at Duke, which may have depressed his passing numbers, however. Feels like an IQ type who can play on or off ball. Another problem: he’s from Duke, which is hard for me as a UNC alum.

Edey: Self-explanatory. If we drafted him, I’d take a look at trading Mitch if the early returns on Edey were good.

Dillon Jones: Athletic SF, not that old for a senior at 22, can do pretty much everything but shoot, but has a great free throw percentage

Harrison Ingram: my late 2nd homer pick. We should buy a 2nd and grab this guy. Had a terrific year at UNC after stinking out the joint at Stanford, where he was miscast as a primary option. Athletic, engaged defender who found his 3pt shot this year. Has a little off the bounce creation potential, but mostly a catch and shoot guy. A terrific rebounder and solid passer despite not showing that at UNC this year. Was a lotto pick as a freshman but didn’t put it all together. Has great size at 6’7 with a 7′ wingspan.

I’d start Deuce and move DDV to the bench. If Randle is out, we want our starting 5 defense to be as tight as possible and starting Deuce gives us a bit of an edge there.

Forgot to mention DaRon Holmes: a do it all PF who put up terrific numbers at Dayton. Main question mark is his shooting ability, though he acquitted himself well this year on that front.

My picks:

21: McCain if he falls, otherwise Kolek.

24: Holmes.

39: Ingram.

How much would we have to change our defense for Edey?

we’re approaching a point where one’s priors on his ceiling should be adjusted

I’ve adjusted them but now I’m wondering where he fits.

He’s not really a backup PG, right?

I like the Dennis Smith Jr idea because I think he and Deuce make a strong second unit backcourt. They’re small but they’re complementary on offense, both good on defense, and they’re cheap AF.

While it’s worthy of consideration, I don’t think there is even a remote possibility that a healthy DDV is not in Thibs’ starting lineup. For me, if OG is back it’s really between Deuce and JHart, and my money would be on JHart starting and Deuce coming off the bench. My only qualm with that is that Deuce seems like kind of a rhythm shooter and starting him with Brunson helps him get into rhythm.

I think Edey’s slow-footedness is real but not so damaging as to make him undraftable. He pretty much has to play drop though. He’s not a defensive anchor but I don’t think he’s a sieve either, at least with the correct scheme around him (switchable defenders who can cover up his deficiencies in the PnR.) What you’re hoping for with him is tolerable defense and solid offensive production.

I recognize that I am in a blue period though,

that in of itself is pretty freaking awesome…

my normal mode is: everything is okay…for a while that was actually my mantra when i would be melting down – i’m okay, i’m okay, i’m okay, i’m okay, i’m okay, i’m okay – over and over and over again…

which is ridiculous when you think about it, that’s just not how life is…

i remember when i first started therapy the person helping me had me log in on this app (the daily bean) daily and record the emotions i was feeling…it didn’t take that long to realize i was mad like every single day…

now that i’m aware of what’s happening, and that’s it’s tied to some health issue – it’s much easier to deal with…well, maybe not much easier deal with, but – at least i’m aware of what’s happening, and i have some kind of plan to improve my health…

it’s still hard, just less a mystery…

i remember you mentioning becoming a dad as significantly changing your perspective…

one of the most impactful moments when i first started seeking help was someone sharing with me what their experience was as a child of someone whom has similar challenges to myself…

like walking on egg shells all the time…

that’s a shitty legacy to have…

i’m proud of you pags…just keep moving forward brother…and if it gets hard to do right for yourself, at least do right for those whom have to be close to you…

edit: last thing to mention pags: healing is not linear…

nope, not at all for this kind of stuff…

You know if you just think of the playoffs as starting next April we’re in really great shape.

It could be the Badger in me, but watching Edey play against us he never really looked flat out dominating. Yes he’d score and rebound, but he never looked like a force.

Dude was only 4-3 against Wisconsin in his collegiate history and even then, our best player during this time was like… Johnny Davis lmao. Wisconsin has really fallen off since Bo Ryan retired.

Oh goody, the draft!

Ware seems like a good fit but has been given the dreaded “inconsistent motor” tag, so I’m not sure I want him (and Thibs def. won’t want him.)

Murray-Boyles seems like the exact opposite: Hustlebunny Extrordinaire… but also a smart player on both sides. He just can’t shoot.

I’m very intrigued by Dillon Jones, he’s like a bowling ball at 6’6″, 235 and with a pretty sweet handle and passing chops. Not a good enough shooter yet but lots of talent.

Hunter Sallis could also come in and provide 2nd unit scoring right away. George and Carrington are both interesting, too.

Milo I know that often my analysis can be cursory, and I’m very open minded when you counter with evidence that I’m wrong. You just did it the other day with the comeback numbers and I tipped my cap.

wasn’t trying to be a dick even a little. totally agree you are an earnest updater. in fact my one rule of knickerblogger is to try not to talk to knickerbloggers who never ever update. question was literal.

samples are small but if you regress donte’s single game performances this year against the total minutes from that game plus the previous game you get a notably positive relationship (more minutes equals better second game) across every measure of performance (game score, ts, 3p%, game bpm, whatever).

if you just take the cases where he’s played 80+ minutes over his prior 2 games you are in tiny sample land (9 cases) but the average second-game performance across the 9 instances is: 25 ppg, TS 64.89%, average game score 18.6.

Two of OG’s injuries were accidentally cutting himself with a knife and appendicitis. I’m not going to say he’s not injury prone, but I think you have to put an asterisk next to time missed for non basketball reasons like that.

Ok, more minutes for Donte then.

I think Edey is worth a shot in the 20’s but definitely more risky than, say, Walker Kessler. His slow-footedness is really a problem given the way the game is played today. He’s probably comparable to a Mark Eaton-type, maybe better on O but not as good on D…but that kind of lumbering shot-blocker is very exploitable with today’s spread offenses. He’s definitely more mobile than Boban but nearly as long, skilled, or charming. That said, he might actually benefit a bit from pro spacing, he’s being swarmed in the college game and with good shooters around him, he can be a pretty good passer out of the post. His good FT form helps too.

I wouldn’t count on him as a replacement for Mitch next year, but might risk drafting him and finding out for 2026-27.

On the subject of Donte and updating one’s beliefs…

I’ve always been against a Mitchell trade but is Donte actually any better than him on defense? He’s one whole inch taller. They have identical stocks per 36 (2.3). Perhaps I’ve been overthinking that. Perhaps adding Mitchell would be like keeping everything in this team the same except turbo charging the fuck out of Donte.

Donte’s emergence actually helps us, too, as we have a ready-made replacement for Mitchell to put into the trade. I don’t know if Donte, Bojan, three unprotected picks, and two pick swaps is enough, though. They have no need for Mitch but they might insist on him just to trade him out of the East!

I’ve always been against a Mitchell trade but is Donte actually any better than him on defense?

I don’t think we know a whole lot about defensive value yet but both of them have played heavy minutes for a variety of decent to excellent defenses, so probably not much of a meaningful difference between them

I’m very intrigued by Dillon Jones, he’s like a bowling ball at 6’6″, 235 and with a pretty sweet handle and passing chops. Not a good enough shooter yet but lots of talent.

Sounds like a Josh Hart clone, except he has better numbers. Signed up or not we’re definitely getting him.

Strat, he’s missed 113 regular season games the last 4 seasons. The appendicitis counts for 0 of those (it happened in the postseason), the knife incident counts for 3, and Covid protocols count for a couple. It’s mostly been injury.

my take on watching donte’s defense this year is that he’s a really nice help defender as advertised, gets in the passing lanes, rotates pretty well, has a great motor, gets back in transition, communicates really well, can bother a shot from behind, etc.

but as a man defender coming in i thought he was maybe average to above average and now i think he’s definitely below average. he can bother both the dribble and the step back but he overplays his man like 99pct of the time, he’s lets his guy get to his strength too often and in general can’t keep his footwork balanced when someone is either shifty or has both good handle and decent strength. he also isn’t great at pick navigation despite A plus effort. i haven’t seen this pointed out much but there have definitely been games where coaches have end game hunted donte instead of jalen by bringing his guy up to set the guard to guard screen (though that is definitely not to say they think he’s a worse man defender than jalen).

i think what that nets to depends on the matchup, who else we have in the court, and in some cases the opposing coach.

SGA missed 2 games last week, returned to play the Knicks and is sitting out again tonight.

They played SGA when he wasn’t 100% healthy????

SGA missed 2 games last week, returned to play the Knicks and is sitting out again tonight.

They know when he’s needed… 🙂

Strat, he’s missed 113 regular season games the last 4 seasons. The appendicitis counts for 0 of those (it happened in the postseason), the knife incident counts for 3, and Covid protocols count for a couple. It’s mostly been injury.

Thanks. I didn’t realize those two injuries caused such limited regular season down time.

Brunson named Eastern Conference Player of the Month. Deserved, and still a relative rarity for this franchise:

@TommyBeer
The NBA Player of the Month award was created in the 1979-80 season.

A Knick has won the Player of the Month Award a total of 12 times:

Patrick Ewing: 5 times
Carmelo Anthony: 3
Jalen Brunson: 2
Julius Randle: 1
Bernard King: 1

Thanks PT for summarizing and rationalizing my feelings about Donte’s defense… 😀

“They played SGA when he wasn’t 100% healthy????”

Wait, did you say Mark Daigneault or Tom Thibodeau?

Today is also the 11 year anniversary of Melo scoring 50 at Miami on all jump shots.

samples are small but if you regress donte’s single game performances this year against the total minutes from that game plus the previous game you get a notably positive relationship (more minutes equals better second game) across every measure of performance (game score, ts, 3p%, game bpm, whatever).

if you just take the cases where he’s played 80+ minutes over his prior 2 games you are in tiny sample land (9 cases) but the average second-game performance across the 9 instances is: 25 ppg, TS 64.89%, average game score 18.6.

that all sounds like some torturous math word problem…how is your brain not blowing up just from thinking about that kind of stuff…

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