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The Athletic: Immanuel Quickley, Jalen Brunson are building chemistry, and Knicks need it to continue

From Fred Katz:

How Brunson and Quickley move together could determine Quickley’s future, and thus the Knicks’ fate, too.

The fourth-year guard will become a restricted free agent next summer after he and the team failed to agree on an extension heading into this season. And part of the reason negotiations weren’t close was because of Quickley’s role. The Knicks know Quickley can ball, but they also acknowledge him as a sixth man, less because of talent and more because of Brunson’s presence.

As long as another small guard is soaking up 36 minutes a night — and especially if he’s doing it at an All-Star level, as Brunson does — Quickley is bound for the bench. The Knicks can’t pay starter money to someone who is blocked from ever rising to that role.

It’s led to questions about what’s next for Quickley. Could he receive a massive contract offer next summer, forcing the Knicks either to bring him back for a larger price tag than they want or to let him walk for nothing? Could New York flip him to another team before February’s trade deadline?

Quickley is a young, scrappy guard who many around the league believe could break out if he were handed a starting role. Include him with Evan Fournier’s expensive salary, maybe throw in a first-round pick or two, and the Knicks could bring back an impact player to help them at another position. After all, they’re already loaded with guards under 6 foot 6.

I would hate to see them trade Quickley, and to be frank, what is even the move to be made out there for Quickley? The issue is that the type of guy the Knicks would want back for Quickley is essentially “Quickley, but taller,” and, well, if you had Quickley, but taller, you wouldn’t trade him for Quickley, right?

Just play Quickley more, and see what happens. Give him more than 30 minutes a game, for crying out loud! He’s currently sixth in the team in minutes played per game, behind Josh Hart and every non-Grimes starter. Pump up Quickley’s minutes!

140 replies on “The Athletic: Immanuel Quickley, Jalen Brunson are building chemistry, and Knicks need it to continue”

‘Acquiring Donovan Mitchell was supposed to take the Cavaliers to the next level. But instead it looks like it’ll go down as the move that’ll keep them in the middle. Mitchell is a high-caliber scorer, but his tunnel vision on his rim assaults leads to him blatantly ignoring teammates in favor of reckless, forced shots. Add in the fact that he’s a small defender sharing a backcourt with another small guard in Darius Garland, it feels like Cleveland has too much overlap.’

Z-Man and I could have told them that last year. 😉

A personnel move that swaps out Grimes for a true backup PG, which would allow Quickley to slide into the starting lineup or at least free up more minutes for Quickley, seems like the best solution.

I like this idea as long as we are getting a similar quality younger player.

I’m glad Katz wrote this article because once these ideas start moving from our discussions to the mainstream coverage maybe there’s a chance they will get discussed by guys like Hahn, Wally, and Clyde on TV and ultimately maybe get more serious consideration internally (or is that wishful thinking?).

The Cavs did have the second best SRS in the NBA last year.

I don’t know what’s wrong with them this year, but I’m not ruling out the possibility that they are still reeling for us taking them to the woodshed.

For everyone who is lamenting the obvious weaknesses of this current team a reminder. Last year we did a trade deadline trade for hart to improve our team. Two years ago we did a trade deadline deal to get D Rose. The FO both years we were fighting for playoff positioning did deals to fortify our team and address weaknesses. I would not rule out Leon doing something similar this year to do the same thing.

For everyone who is lamenting the obvious weaknesses of this current team a reminder. Last year we did a trade deadline trade for hart to improve our team. Two years ago we did a trade deadline deal to get D Rose. The FO both years we were fighting for playoff positioning did deals to fortify our team and address weaknesses. I would not rule out Leon doing something similar this year to do the same thing.

All due respect, this does not inspire any confidence. These were moves squarely targeting the mezzanine, where we gave up future value for present value with minimal upside. These moves showed a lack of recognition for where we are on the win curve (zero championship equity) and did nothing to improve that status.

It seems like our FO is chasing 4-10 games of additional gate revenue every year and not much more, and another move of that nature would only cement that.

cavs are doing what the wolves did last year which is having 1-3 guys hurt basically every game…. they will be fine …

I don’t know what’s wrong with them this year, but I’m not ruling out the possibility that they are still reeling for us taking them to the woodshed.

I absolutely love this notion.

Pagliacci,

So a mezzanine team that makes an upgrade to the roster similar to Josh hart wouldn’t improve?

We’re literally in the category of teams that’s right outside of the contenders. The whole “mezzanine” term came when we blew the cavs out in the first round and posters who said we were a fringe playoff team had to move the goal posts came up with the term to denigrate what our FO had built. I don’t accept it as a term bc it’s a bullshit term made up by posters who were wrong about this team and had to make an about face post ipso facto.

We don’t need a superstar. We need one or two more good pieces to make our team better.

We don’t need a superstar. We need one or two more good pieces to make our team better.

Facts. Mikal Bridges for Grimes, Fournier and picks turns them into an EC contender this summer.

Swifty, I absolutely loved your post (especially the part about moving the goalposts…so very true!) until you said this:

“We don’t need a superstar. We need one or two more good pieces to make our team better.”

You lost me there. We certainly do need a superstar or something pretty close if we want to contend. The thing is, we are in position to get such player if one shakes loose. And personally, I think it is even more imperative to get a true star with Mitch as our starting C.

Mikal Bridges for Grimes, Fournier and picks turns them into an EC contender this summer.

sure if the nets GM wants to get fired on the spot…they would make that trade…

“Facts. Mikal Bridges for Grimes, Fournier and picks turns them into an EC contender this summer.”

Do you really think there is any way that the Nets go for that deal? (I’m assuming that by “picks” you don’t mean like 3 unprotected firsts, plus swaps and protected picks…)

(I’m assuming that by “picks” you don’t mean like 3 unprotected firsts, plus swaps and protected picks…)

Unprotected 2024 and 2026, Dallas 2024, the right to 2025 swap plus all three 2024 2nds will likely set him free. Pay the price. Moves RJ to shooting guard and lowers Randle’s usage.

Anyone else besides me not know that DeAndre Jordan is still playing? Apparently he’s backing up Jokic as he started in his place tonight against the Clips with Jokic “resting.” Dude has 14/12/5 at the end of the third quarter.

Amazon just informed me that my package is arriving tomorrow. Looks like Chrismukkah is coming early this year, woohoo!

(Alan— you doing any book signing events in LA before the New Year?:)

The whole “mezzanine” term came when we blew the cavs out in the first round and posters who said we were a fringe playoff team had to move the goal posts came up with the term to denigrate what our FO had built. I don’t accept it as a term bc it’s a bullshit term made up by posters who were wrong about this team and had to make an about face post ipso facto.

I said Leon’s strategy could get us to the mezzanine but not to the top back in 2021. And it still looks like a fine prediction. Making the 2nd round of the playoffs is not the top.

It seems like our FO is chasing 4-10 games of additional gate revenue every year and not much more, and another move of that nature would only cement that.

Absolutely have no idea what this means. If it means we are trying to get better by 4-10 games every year, we move out of the so-called mezzanine in 1-2 years. If it means we are trying to play an additional 4-10 home games every year, it means we win more playoff rounds each year. Or is this some clever analogy that I am missing? But whatever.

The whole “mezzanine” term came when we blew the cavs out in the first round and posters who said we were a fringe playoff team had to move the goal posts came up with the term to denigrate what our FO had built. I don’t accept it as a term bc it’s a bullshit term made up by posters who were wrong about this team and had to make an about face post ipso facto.

No one who’s used the term “mezzanine” (or it’s Knickerblogger etymological close cousin “purgatory”) is “wrong about this team” and none of us have made an about face.

The Josh Hart and Derrick Rose moves were counterproductive.

For Mitch

Over the last generation of NBA basketball, players have reimagined nearly every method of scoring points. Top dunkers have evolved from lumbering behemoths to athletes who can sprint the length of the floor in a few strides. The 3-point shot has progressed from a complementary feature to the sport’s central tactic. The game’s best passer, a title once reserved for point guards, is a center.

The exception is the free throw, stuck more or less where it’s always been. Even the league’s worst shooters, with rare exceptions, settle for the norm after they draw a foul. They tinker instead of overhauling, trying for higher arc and a more consistent release, logging the same lousy numbers.

Johnny McDowell, Sr. never reached the NBA; his stateside career ended at the University of Texas at Arlington in 1993. But the retired forward, now 52, has a word of advice gleaned from his time in Korea’s pro league, in which he won multiple MVP awards. It’s a little weird. Don’t aim at the rim; aim for that big pane of tempered glass behind it.

“The more I did it,” McDowell said of using the backboard on his foul shots, “the better I got.”

Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert warms up before a game. PHOTO: ABBIE PARR/ASSOCIATED PRESS
The practice of bouncing free-throws off the backboard is unheard of in American basketball, where shooters universally aim for the swish. When a viral reel of Korean stars taking and making bankers circulated last summer, NBA fans puzzled over the technique and fired off jokes about which players—the Brooklyn Nets’ Ben Simmons, the Minnesota Timberwolves’ Rudy Gobert—might stand to benefit from trying it out.

In the KBL, though, using the backboard from the charity stripe isn’t a novelty. It’s a staple of the game, popularized by an icon and supported by the statistics of those who make the shots at an 80-plus percent clip. The percentages, and the physics behind them, suggest NBA players would do well to give it a (redirected) shot.

The origins of the Korean bank-shot free throw trace back to Moon Kyung-eun—who, if he did not invent the method, certainly popularized it. Over a career spanning the 1990s and 2000s, Moon made his name as a marksman. His attempts tended to go in regardless of the build-up to them—whether he had set his feet or was flying around a screen, using the glass or arcing the ball straight through the rim.

“I tell everybody, you’ve got Steph Curry shooting pull-up threes,” McDowell said. “Moon was doing that back when I was playing.”

South Korea’s Incheon Electric Land forward Moon Kyung-eun, right, in action. PHOTO: AHN YOUNG-JOON/ASSOCIATED PRESS
The most identifiable and imitable quirk came at the foul line. Players have long used the backboard when facing the basket at an angle, but conventional wisdom had held that taking dead aim at the rim was best for a straight-on shot. Moon’s intuition led him to loft the ball high over the hoop, feather it off of the square outline painted onto the glass and watch it drop—nearly every time—through the net.

“If he shot 100 free-throw bank shots, he would have a success rate of 100%,” said Kim Tae-sul, who played with Moon early in his own career. Kim quickly adopted the method as his own.

Rhett Allain is a physicist at Southeastern Louisiana University who has researched the properties that differentiate a successful basketball shot from an unsuccessful one. Allain said that players’ approaches have more to do with received wisdom, passed down between generations of coaches and parents, than with a systematic study of what works. Even those struggling at the bottom of the free-throw leaderboard—such as the Nets’ Simmons, who had made just one of four in six games this season before missing time with a back injury—are hesitant to venture too far afield in search of a fix.

The banker, therefore, hasn’t yet made its NBA debut. But it has scientific bona fides.

“If you come in from a low angle, the rim—from the ball’s perspective—is a lot smaller,” Allain said. “If you come from straight down, it’s as big as it can get; it’s a circle. That’s the big advantage of hitting it off the backboard, it increases that angle. It makes the rim bigger.”

McDowell, who also learned the banked free-throw from Moon, concurs. “It helps your touch out,” McDowell said. “Put it on that square, and it’s going to fall right in.”

Rick Barry brought the underhanded ‘granny shot’ to the NBA and ABA. PHOTO: FOCUS ON SPORT/GETTY IMAGES
The most notable attempt to disrupt the foul shot came in the 1960s and 70s, when Hall-of-Fame guard Rick Barry brought the underhanded “granny shot” to the NBA and ABA. He made 90% of his free-throw attempts in the NBA, and in the decades since his playing career has campaigned for current players to try his technique. (Wilt Chamberlain shot underhanded for a time, including during his record 100-point game in 1962.) His pleas have mostly fallen on deaf ears—an unwillingness Barry attributes to fear of looking foolish.

“People are adopting this,” Barry said of the shot spreading in the KBL, “but they’re not going to adopt the way that physicists have said is the most efficient way to shoot a free throw. It just shows you how crazy this world is.”

Barry nevertheless conceded points to the banked free-throw’s credit. The backboard “softens” the shot, he said, increasing the likelihood of a friendly roll. “If I were playing today, I’d do more with the bank shot from the side,” Barry added.

McDowell can relate to Barry’s frustrations. These days, the former KBL champion coaches the junior varsity team at his alma mater, Central High School in Tuscaloosa, Ala. Among his audience of teenagers, he’s yet to find any takers for the experiment that boosted his own hit rate years ago.

“I would like to pass it along,” McDowell said, “but these kids aren’t interested.” In that way, they’re just like the pros.

The Clippers are such a mess, how do you lose to the Nuggets at home without Jokic?

They’re 7-9 and haven’t even been load managing Kawhi. I guess they could turn it around but they sure don’t look like much of a contender right now.

Hart does not feel included, in Kat’s piece. Is this the first time in the Thibs era that we’re seeing discontent coming out of established rotation players?

Amazon just informed me that my package is arriving tomorrow. Looks like Chrismukkah is coming early this year, woohoo!

(Alan— you doing any book signing events in LA before the New Year?:)

No book signings planned at the moment. Our publisher believes we get more bang for the buck with various online or legacy media appearances than from paying to fly me around the country. They’re probably right. Among other things, I got to guest DJ an episode of a show on the Pop Rocks station on SiriusXM where I introduced a bunch of songs from the show. So that was very cool.

Pub day! My first book in nearly five years. Jowles was wrong. I’ve been slacking!

The closest thing this team has to a “star” is obviously Brunson, so they need to do everything they can to ride him to success. IMO he needs to become a top-10 league scorer for us to even think about a deep playoff run.

That means not only playing a big defender at guard next to him (Grimes) but finding a guard who also has PG skills to take over some or most of those duties (not Grimes), so Brunson can focus on taking over games.

Brunson is also a top three-point threat, so our SG might not have to be an exceptional 3pt shooter. Jrue would’ve been the perfect fit, so I guess it’s good we were considering him. Maybe Caruso is worth a look?

Obviously the team should prioritize the draft or loading up for a big star trade… I just don’t see either of those happening tbh, so we should probably beef up this mezz. team as much as possible.

Banking in free throws would probably lead to more offensive rebounds, too. It’s a great idea that no one will ever try.

I don’t think anyone ever questioned whether we were a mezzanine team as currently constructed. Except maybe Swifty, but even he was with caveats like “With a bit of injury luck…” Some posters threw around the “can’t even get out of the first round” in a “yawn, call me when they do” way.

The more relevant and enduring question has always been whether this team could get from this level to being a true contender under the current FO’s approach.

Team We’ve Seen Enough says no and offer up the following reasons:
-Julius Randle is a head case who will never perform well enough under playoff pressure
-Thibs is a dinosaur who gets outcoached in the layoffs
-The extra draft picks we have are fugazi
-The FO doesn’t know how to get value out of the draft
-The FO overpays redundant hustlebunnies
-The whole “stars want to come here thing” is a myth
-The Second Apron meter is ticking and will probably expire before a star that makes us contenders becomes available.

At the end of the day, those guys will be right until they are not. We are NOT, I repeat, NOT a contender as currently construed. The path to the next level is murky, as it is for all teams without a couple of in-theor-prime superstars or a MVP type with a strong supporting cast.

But “murky” does not mean “closed.” Team Patience believes that a consolidation trade or trades that will get the Knicks to the next level is/are coming and that the team is well-positioned to make such a trade. They disagree with some of the conclusions above, more in terms of them being damning than somewhat true.

16 games in here are the minutes distribution compared to last year:

2023
Brunson 35.2 mpg
Randle 34.8
Barrett 30
Robinson 29.5
Hart 28.3
Quickley 25.1
Grimes 24.1
DiVincenzo 20.3
Hartenstein 17.3

2022
Brunson 35.0 mpg
Randle 35.5
Barrett 33.9
Robinson 27.0
Hart 30.0
Quickley 28.9
Grimes – 29.9
DiVincenzo xxx
Hartenstein 17.3

FYI… if you want more minutes for IQ and donte… that basically means Grimes gets about 10-15mpg…

Hart does not feel included, in Kat’s piece. Is this the first time in the Thibs era that we’re seeing discontent coming out of established rotation players?

Josh Hart has a .503 TS% on 11.9% usage. There’s a solid bear market case that he was a declining asset when acquired who had a dead cat bounce because he was motivated to get paid. While there are other possibilities with varying percentages, that’s the mainstream base case.

He should not have been acquired at that price.

A trade for another nuts-and-bolts type player is not going to move the needle for this team. We already have competent or competent-ish players all up and down the roster. This has been a strength of the FO. It’s a pretty deep rotation and we really don’t have to play anybody who flat out stinks.

But there just isn’t any more room for marginal improvements. It’s “go big or go home” time. Adding another 1 BPM role player to this team is not going to change anything. Josh Hart was a fine addition but we don’t need any more Josh Harts. We need chrome and leather. Given how few of those guys there are in the league and the risk-averse nature of this front office, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to be skeptical that the chrome and leather is going to be arriving soon.

If and when the cavalry comes, I’ll be cheering louder than anybody.

hart’s a fine player…. he will be fine… but he’s very capable of playing loong stretches like this… he did this last year only it was before the trade with the blazers… we just happened to get him when he got especially hot….

these -1 to +1 bpm players will constantly fluctuate like this… a few missed shots… some issues getting to the basket (like everyone else)… and that’s enough to turn them into a negative player even tho nothing really changed in their skillset….

which is why you don’t give up picks for the right to give these guys long term 9 figure deals… especially when you don’t even plan to play them 30mpg….

There should be no question anymore as to whether the player markets are priced, in terms of risk/reward and availability, so as to permit a team to construct a mezzanine portfolio of assets that can get you to roughly the Knicks’ place if a team so chooses.

That question should be considered settled.

No one who’s used the term “mezzanine” (or it’s Knickerblogger etymological close cousin “purgatory”) is “wrong about this team”

Um, except you have no fucking clue how this season is going to play out, so using this insulting term, which was made up the moment we crushed the Cavs in the first round as a way to move the goal posts away from “we’re a fringe playoff team” is the definition is bullshit.

Sorry, I do not believe in the term mezzanine. Its a stupid fucking term and the fact that it’s being used on this blog every day is a fucking travesty. It’s bullshit. The NBA has contenders, good teams, mediocre teams and bad teams. We’re a good team. The idea that you get to “the mezzanine” and that’s somehow bad or that we have no way to become contenders – you are flat out fucking wrong because you have no clue what will happen.

For all we know Randle will be shitty all regular season but then will be good in the playoffs. Leon will make a trade. Grimes will turn it on, etc.

Last year after 20 games we were below 500 and then we won 9 games in a row. Then we got Hart and kicked ass the rest of the regular season. Miami barely made the playoffs and then went to the finals. It’s the sheer arrogance of the negative nancies that is so infuriating. You’re wrong so many times and yet you continue to use these bullshit made up terms to denigrate the real team building Leon and Thibs have done.

We have a good fucking team, no bad contracts and lots of young players and tons of picks and all you want to do is pick apart this team every fucking time they lose.

SICK IF THIS BULLSHIT BY NEGATIVE FANS,. Go route for a lottery team.

Swift out.

And all of you bitching about IQ not playing more worshipping him when you all HATED the pick at the time. Or lamented about how bad he was to start last season but now want to kick Grimes to the curb for a similar slow start. You preach the patience of team building from the ground up and use these other teams as these great examples the moment they string together a few wins but have no stomach to actually do it with your own fucking team because it wasn’t done in the perfect way that you would do it if you were GM (like any of us would ever get that opportunity and know so much better than coaches and dudes who have lived this shit since they were toddlers).

It’s “go big or go home” time.

This is a lovely sentiment, but what if it isn’t possible?

These days, teams are basically doing everything they can to satisfy “real” stars. Giannis and Jokic were given ideal situations. Embiid is thriving this year. Even Luka and KAT have gotten better help recently.

Additionally, no one wants to go the UFA route these days, and I don’t see one of the few real league stars demanding to go to NYC to play for spectrum-y Thibs and snot-nosed Dolan.

That leaves us “flawed” stars like Spida and LaVine as trade options. Do they actually put us over the top though? Or just deplete our bench?

Therefore, my thought is that we should try to turn Brunson into an 8 bpm player by giving him the best situation possible. Yes, it won’t be easy, but it feels more likely than us poaching a big name.

“Given how few of those guys there are in the league and the risk-averse nature of this front office, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to be skeptical that the chrome and leather is going to be arriving soon.”

Skepticism is certainly warranted. But to be fair, from the time that Rose was hired with his zero FO experience, and if not then, when Thibs was hired, confirming that a tank-based rebuild was not happening, many here were pretty skeptical that the FO could even move the roster and asset bank to this point, i.e. the point where making a big “chrome and leather” move that would put the team over the top was even a worthy topic of discussion.

Contrary to that skepticism, there has been some movement on the “chrome and leather” front. Brunson is clearly a championship-caliber Big-3-level performer. Randle was all-NBA last year for the second time in 3 years, contrary to expectations when Leon took over, and has significantly rehabilitated his value from the low point of off-season 2022. RJ is performing significantly better than skeptics expected thus far…we’ll see whether the recent regression is due to injury/illness or not. IQ is emerging as a prime-time player..is he verging on chrome and leather status?

And these developments occurred organically, or at least without any diminution of future draft capital for a bigger move, and without any albatross contracts. No one over age 30, or making anywhere close to a max.

Ehh maybe you could buy low on Zion but he looks like shit this year. He rebounds like a guard and gets fewer attempts at the rim every year he is in the league. He also provides zero spacing and has little in the way of secondary skills, other than being a decent passer for a big. He’s not really playable next to either of our centers. His game has stagnated and he has added no wrinkles as a player since coming into the league. He still just tries to overpower defenders, and is just not as good at it as he was before he got chronically fat and injured.

Maybe he’s not at 100% and you’re buying into the idea that he gets revitalized by leaving New Orleans, but he looks a lot like the Knicks version of Larry Johnson to me. It wouldn’t shock me if he turned it around and started playing up to his talent level but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he has just lost a step physically and is now a non-elite volume scorer. TS+ is 100 right now, easily the lowest of his career. Dunk percentage is down, free throw rate is down.

I think this season is raising all kinds of screaming red flags about the guy.

“And all of you bitching about IQ not playing more worshipping him when you all HATED the pick at the time.”

Truth

SICK IF THIS BULLSHIT BY NEGATIVE FANS,. Go route for a lottery team.

It’s like somebody insulted your favorite member of One Direction

I’ve been lower on Zion than most since before he was drafted. As of now, I’d trade Julius, Grimes, and an unprotected pick for him, but that’s about it. And even then, I’m not sure whether that would improve the team or make it worse.

Hard pass except at bargain basement price.

And even then, I’m not sure whether that would improve the team or make it worse.

Definitely worse, as our hedge against needing a true back up PF is Julius’ durability. So if it were to happen, another move has to simultaneously occur.

Um, except you have no fucking clue how this season is going to play out, so using this insulting term, which was made up the moment we crushed the Cavs in the first round as a way to move the goal posts away from “we’re a fringe playoff team” is the definition is bullshit.

Sorry, I do not believe in the term mezzanine. Its a stupid fucking term and the fact that it’s being used on this blog every day is a fucking travesty. It’s bullshit. The NBA has contenders, good teams, mediocre teams and bad teams. We’re a good team. The idea that you get to “the mezzanine” and that’s somehow bad or that we have no way to become contenders – you are flat out fucking wrong because you have no clue what will happen.

Did you get molested in a mezzanine or something? The word should not evoke this kind of emotion.

I’m not as emotional about it as Swift but I agree that the mezzanine description might be the stupidest term made up in the 15 years I’ve been reading this blog.

Swifty, don’t sweat it. One of the things about being, shall we politely say, not you, is that you can take victory laps up to the day the team hoists a championship banner. And since that is unlikely to happen any time soon, there will always be a poster or posters who gets his rocks off by pissing in the punchbowl at anything less than that.

I just hope you keep right on doing you no matter what happens…even a so-so party can be fun when you hang with the sunny-side-up crowd who isn’t constantly ragging on the DJ and the food.

I’ve long felt that the “varying definition of terms” is at the root of much internet arguing. Today’s thread takes that to a new level.
🙂
FWIW, I agree on Zion. Still an intriguing player, and I’d take a shot at him in a package sending Randle, but with not much more in it. Red flags abound.

None of this is fucking “victory laps,” this is adults discussing how this team might actually improve and become a true contender. That’s what we do here. If it gives people the vapors that not everybody sees a clear path to true contention, then I don’t know what to say.

I could give two flying shits about being the guy who is “right” on the internet, but I will admit, I am that guy who likes to talk about potential outcomes, and who makes sober, realistic assessments about where the team is at. I don’t put on rose-colored glasses and I don’t wave pom poms. This isn’t the fucking Beyhive. It’s okay to admit this team is not a championship contender as currently constructed.

If Julius Randle wakes up tomorrow and can play like a 10 BPM player, or if RJ Barrett suddenly shows that he is the 2020s version of Paul Pierce, I’ll revisit my priors and ecstatically revise my outlook. If we make a trade where we steal Luka Doncic for the Leon Rose Paper Clip Draft Pick Package I’ll personally send him a muffin basket.

Until that day I’m not taking any “victory laps,” I’m just calling shit how I see it. The day we win that chip I’ll be doing the actual victory lap, not the other way around.

There aren’t going to be any risk-free stars coming the Knicks way.

If the landscape is such that you aren’t willing to take a risk on a Zion-type, and your goal is a championship, then it’s time to tear it down and start over.

Danny Ainge tore down a team closer to a championship than this one is or projects to be.

We should be clear: If a modern GM came to this team and the organizational goals were the normal ones of winning a championship, unburdened by all the Dolan Effect caveats and codicils, it’s more likely than not that GM would tear the team down and start over.

The other option to the tear down is taking a swing at a still-young guy with a ton of talent who’s not happy in his current circumstance — like a Zion Williamson.

Those are really the only serious options. Zach LaVine, Spida, KAT … nah. Not enough.

I don’t understand why it is offensive to suggest the Knicks are not currently sitting at the top of the NBA landscape.

How about instead of the term “mezzanine” we use “that place in the relative NBA landscape where we are pretty good but not true title contenders” so that doesn’t offend anybody.

We can make it an acronym: TPITRNBALWWAPGBNTTC. I’ll make a macro.

If the landscape is such that you aren’t willing to take a risk on a Zion-type, and your goal is a championship, then it’s time to tear it down and start over.

Sort of a non statement with regard to our team. As far as I know we are searching for a Zion-type (evidence: accumulating draft picks which we never use) or not (evidence: multiple all-NBA level players traded while we had draft capital and did not land).

For the record, I didn’t know Quickley coming into the draft because I don’t watch college ball and don’t want to waste time trying to evaluate prospects we aren’t even going to pick. But right after we made the pick I did a bunch of research and LOVED the pick.

I found an article describing his work ethic and how he made dramatic improvements during the course of his final college season. They broke out the data between first part and second part and it was night and day. His annual stats were misleading as to how well he was playing down the stretch. I’m pretty sure I posted the article and started raving about the potential for us having stolen a really good player. Quickley becoming a very good player was no shock and the FO should get a gold star for recognizing how improved he was beforehand and stealing him. Someone was watching a lot Quickley basketball.

one thing i don’t get is that why is it so important to talk about a team in a certain way? why is that so important to people? if you enjoy the team… what does anyone saying anything bother you? it’s the same thing with the ntilikina discussions… we got daily updates about his +/- and thin slices of his defense and similar emotional outbursts because folks couldn’t stand talking bad about him and who didn’t see the potential…

we had way better teams and much more divisive talk as a fanbase because knick fans … if they’re known for anything.. is that they can never agree on anything and they hate everything….

if really what you seek is a safe space to write a thousand words on the joys of leon rose… there are communities out there for you to do just that… if you cannot stand people challenging you on your bullshit…. it’s sort of like if you run into assholes all day… the problem isn’t the people disagreeing with you…

Given what we were used to since the turning of the century, i’m here for the so-so party. And we even have a DJ! 😀

We can make it an acronym: TPITRNBALWWAPGBNTTC. I’ll make a macro.

JK, how the hell do you know my password?? 😀

All due respect, this does not inspire any confidence. These were moves squarely targeting the mezzanine, where we gave up future value for present value with minimal upside. These moves showed a lack of recognition for where we are on the win curve (zero championship equity) and did nothing to improve that status.

Hubert, JK–the above from pagliacci–where he attributes his gripes as “targeting the mezzanine” most likely inflamed the word. As I think most of us are, happy to sit in the mezzanine as long as we are looking upwards, not sideways

Cybersoze…wait, that’s YOUR password. It’s mine, too. What a coincidence!

IDK, maybe we should just all agree to incinerate the word mezzanine. I’m more fond of fire escape as a metaphor for where the Knicks currently sit, anyways.

How about instead of the term “mezzanine” we use “that place in the relative NBA landscape where we are pretty good but not true title contenders” so that doesn’t offend anybody.

It used to be that we worried about being in this position when a team was older, didn’t have any draft capital left to make a serious move and had several bad contracts that couldn’t be moved.

The “bears” on the Knicks seem to have moved the goal post on that to mean if you are a young team, have several players with more upside, have all your 1st round picks, have some excess 1st round picks and a bunch of fair and attractive contracts you are somehow screwed if you aren’t a serious contender yet.

It’s ridiculous.

That would be like saying The Spurs are screwed because even though they drafted Wembanyama and have a potential star, they still suck and will have to get lucky 2-3 more times in the draft and then still fill out the role players to become contenders. Well, yes they will. But they are positioned well for 4-5 years out. So we’ll see how well they draft and develop players over those years.

Building a team is a process no matter where you are at that moment and how you are going about it.

You don’t call it failure until you aren’t good enough and you are out of options.

That’s not the Knicks.

In the past 22 years we’ve had exactly 1 team better than last year’s team and the majority of fans here hated that team. Or I should say hated the star player on that team.

Swifty said:

We’re literally in the category of teams that’s right outside of the contenders.

And, of course, the mezzanine is literally the floor that’s right below the upper level.

And words matter, as our good friend the FBI reports editor Doogie can tell you (do you like how I change your agency each time? If you actually work for Horse and Hounds, please don’t tell me…).

Both mezzanine and purgatory imply being stuck and inflexible (although as has been pointed out previously, purgatory is actually where you are cleansed of sin before going to heaven, at least in some quarters, which clearly suggests a trade for Zion and heading off to the promised land of harps and chips).

Neither term defines the truth, which is that we’ve got the potential to be a very good team as is (and, of course, the potential to be pretty sucky, talking to you, Julius). The former means there’s always a puncher’s chance, see Miami last year for an excellent example.

“Danny Ainge tore down a team closer to a championship than this one is or projects to be.”

And Danny Ainge would tear this team down. So would Presti, and Ujiri, and probably others.

But we don’t have those guys, do we?

So remind me again, what is the purpose of reminding us that we’d be better off if something that has zero chance of happening actually happened?

Or better yet, let’s have conversations about what is actually possible given the constraints we are dealing with…such as the FO, the coach, the roster, the draft assets, the cap, etc.

Or just keep right on whining about why Knicks fans can never have what you want them to have…

Whatever.

There should be no question anymore as to whether the player markets are priced, in terms of risk/reward and availability, so as to permit a team to construct a mezzanine portfolio of assets that can get you to roughly the Knicks’ place if a team so chooses.

Fans of the Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons must be furious their GMs haven’t pressed the “become a 47 win team that isn’t in a pick deficit” button that is on the desk of every NBA GM

Nobody is moving any goalposts.

We’re good. That’s fun! I’m enjoying the season.

It’s also becoming clear to me that the next leap, the one from TPITRNBALWWAPGBNTTC to true contention, is a tough one. We’re probably gonna have to break out of the box and do something other than acquire the 1 BPM role player of tomorrow if we want to truly contend. Maybe that’s doable! Here are some hypothetical ways that could happen: x, y, z. Here are some potential roadblocks that might make leveling up more difficult: x, y, z.

No goalposts moved. The situation has changed. We’re good instead of terrible, so we don’t need to have that discussion anymore. The discussion is now about how to move from good to great. That’s not moving the goalposts, that’s moving the BALL.

Building a team is a process no matter where you are at that moment and how you are going about it.

Precisely.

Getting to the top of a building is a process, as well.

And we have names for various points in the building to indicate how far along you are in the process.

If you’ve made a lot of progress but aren’t at the top, you’re on a level called….

i don’t know if people even remember the backpage and the arguments with their friends before the internet existed… but the 90s knicks teams were not fawned over like how people want to talk about these knicks… nor was the 2nd seeded knicks and actually good but short lived teams ever actually received well…

what you guys are expecting doesn’t exist.. you are fighting ghosts and mostly your own attitude about the world not gifting you the validation you seek….

it’s quite a toxic and antisocial attitude… normal people can disagree quite productively without getting offended by another person’s opposing opinion…. certainly about basketball….

“I am that guy who likes to talk about potential outcomes, and who makes sober, realistic assessments about where the team is at.”

lol

Fans of the Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons must be furious their GMs haven’t pressed the “become a 47 win team that isn’t in a pick deficit” button that is on the desk of every NBA GM

yo… the charlotte hornets did exactly that and got 48 wins in 2016…

hell you might even have the rockets doing exactly that now this season….

but that’s also not even accurate because we also burned picks and all of our cap space to get to here….

It used to be that we worried about being in this position when a team was older, didn’t have any draft capital left to make a serious move and had several bad contracts that couldn’t be moved.

That was never the actual definition.

The thing described fits the definition, to be sure — but it isn’t the definition.

The definition is a team good enough to be .500 or a little better, but not bad enough to ever be a contender for the kind of high draft picks that truly change fortunes. There’s no more to it than that. Age has nothing to do with it. (The “no bad contracts” variable makes some superficial sense, but teams with bad contracts maneuver them all the time to get high-level free agents on the fly.)

Possessing all your draft picks is irrelevant if those picks all project to be mid to lower-mid table — that’s the whole point.

I find this discussion of various labels pretty dull. It’s not like there’s some widely accepted definition of the “mezzanine.” I mean, can you exit the mezzanine once you’re there?

Here are what I deem to be the material truths about our position (YMMV):

1. We are currently not a contender. We have a 0% chance to win the 2024 NBA finals.

2. We are currently pretty good, maybe good enough to win a playoff series. In the 45-50 win range. We got to this point without going scorched earth on our future assets, and while there was some mismanagement of those assets along the way a lot of similarly situated teams can’t say that.

3. Owing to 2, we have the ability to make a trade in which we send out primarily future assets while still sending out enough value commensurate with past trades for a bonafide top-10 or so player. Also because of 2, if that player is the right player we could well become contenders after such a trade.

4. My main gripe with the Leon Rose strategy remains: whether the opportunity to make such a trade will materialize in time for us to capitalize on it is completely out of our control. There is basically nothing we can do to improve our situation between now and the purely theoretical star trade. We have to sit back and hope there is, in fact, a star trade.

Make of it all what you will, I suppose. I agree with Z-Man that Rose has done impressive work in getting us to the “one big trade away” level and there’s a crowd that refuses to acknowledge that, but I agree with JK that the next, and most important, step is as murky as ever, which was foreseeable when we went down this road.

Fans of the Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons must be furious their GMs haven’t pressed the “become a 47 win team that isn’t in a pick deficit” button that is on the desk of every NBA GM

The vast majority of teams don’t press that button. Why? Because they don’t want to be a mezzanine/purgatory team.

Axiomatic.

In fact, the fact that so few teams press that button is precisely why mezzanine assets are so readily available.

Pretty ironic talking about people who are apparently seeking validation on this site…

And Danny Ainge would tear this team down. So would Presti, and Ujiri, and probably others.

Exactly.

In terms of etymology, “mezzanine financing” is a hybrid of debt and equity, making it a perfect fit for this situation — in both basketball and linguistic terms.

Julius Randle is the sublimely definitive mezzanine asset. Central casting material, like casting Marlin Brando as Don Corleone or George C. Scott as General Buck Turgidson. Above the mezzanine at the mezzanine asset Hall of Fame will lie a banner with Julius’s face and number 30 on it.

yo… the charlotte hornets did exactly that and got 48 wins in 2016…

There is a difference between being a 47 win team, and winning 47/48 games in an individual season sandwiched between a 33 win season and a 36 win season.

I think the Knicks have built a bona fide 47 win team and will remain in that range for the foreseeable future.

I am aware you disagree, which just boils down to us disagreeing about the quality of the team. I standby my 47 win prediction from before the season, so there’s nothing to do here but wait.

‘Acquiring Donovan Mitchell was supposed to take the Cavaliers to the next level. But instead it looks like it’ll go down as the move that’ll keep them in the middle. Mitchell is a high-caliber scorer, but his tunnel vision on his rim assaults leads to him blatantly ignoring teammates in favor of reckless, forced shots. Add in the fact that he’s a small defender sharing a backcourt with another small guard in Darius Garland, it feels like Cleveland has too much overlap.’

I don’t know what Mitchell’s rim attacking has to do with Garland’s turnover rate being 50% about his career average and double the rate of Mitchell’s for the past 12 games, but hey, if the Athletic says it’s about Mitchell not passing… sure!

Every GM would love to tank. They can lose a bunch of games without criticism and always talk about a grand future. It’s a win-win situation for them.

There is a difference between being a 47 win team, and winning 47/48 games in an individual season sandwiched between a 33 win season and a 36 win season.

Not really. I mean, yeah, in literal terms there’s a difference — but in basketball terms there really isn’t or if there is, it’s marginal at most.

It would actually be preferable to go lottery-47-lottery rather than 47-47-47. The Knicks actually did that, but alas, third degree charred their lottery pick.

There is a difference between being a 47 win team, and winning 47/48 games in an individual season sandwiched between a 33 win season and a 36 win season.

you mean where the knicks were also a 37 win team prior to the 47 win one? that difference?

Pretty ironic talking about people who are apparently seeking validation on this site

i have taken on this whole site on multiple big topics both on the optimistic side (rj vs brandon clarke, rj, randle part 1) and negative (the incineration, knicks offseason 2022, the knicks draft in general, frank)… i do not beg or curry favor with the crowd in the hopes that my opinions are validated…

the results do that for me….

and most of those were genuine actual riveting discussions… which for most respectful participants we all came away with a better understanding… on the topic and each other…. that’s quite an accomplishment right…

otoh… you have the heretics who need everyone to be onboard… it’s either you’re with us or against us attitude… and groveling for others to parrot the same shit they were fed…

it’s quite disgusting…. and i’m not down with that…. you guys do you …i do me…

The Knicks in 2021 won 41 games in a 72 game season which projects to exactly 47 wins over 82 games. The outlier season under Thibs is 2022 not last season.

No goalposts moved. The situation has changed. We’re good instead of terrible, so we don’t need to have that discussion anymore. The discussion is now about how to move from good to great. That’s not moving the goalposts, that’s moving the BALL.

They have moved the goalposts.

It used to be that using all avenues of improvement (draft, trade, free agency) won’t work (until we built a good young team using all those methods) to “mezzanine”, “purgatory” or whatever the Knicks BEARS want to call it on any given day meaning that we are still screwed even though we are young, good, have all our own pick assets and some excess pick assets.

It’s laughably preposterous.

We are still in a great position to improve both internally and externally.

We are just waiting for the next move(s) to utilize our player/contract/draft pick assets to take another step in the same way other teams in our category and worse are trying to figure out how to get better using their assets. The difference is, we are better positioned than most, including a few of the teams above us.

If we make a couple of moves that turn out to be blunders or 3 years from now we are still looking and a couple of players are past their peak, that’s when you start breaking out the anti-depressants. Not when you are young, loaded and still looking.

We are still in a great position to improve both internally and externally.

Not to actual championship contention. There’s no path to that with this roster.(*) It projects to be too good to be in the lottery (certainly the best parts of the lottery) but not good enough to ever seriously contend for a championship.

(*) Or the pieces that could reasonably be expected to be returned in any trades.

I can see the problem: E is stealing “mezzanine” and trying to rebrand it.

He did the same thing with moneyball, which was originally about ISM but somehow became about our offense.

So I’m sitting here talking about it the way I originally intended it and other people think about it the way E is using it.

E, cut it out. Your brand is purgatory. Leave the mezzanine alone.

Let’s face it, there are still some people here that can’t get past the belief that tanking is the only thing that works (despite all the data against it). That’s where this is all coming from.

Apparently they would rather we be the Detroit Pistons 5 years into their tank and still sucking ass or the Orlando Magic 14 years into their tank and rebuild strategy until they finally got it right and they still aren’t contenders either.

There is not sure fire way. There is only competence and incompetence at valuing players and assets and fitting them together coherently.

Ugh this is a dumb rabbit hole.

I think even E would agree that this current team is a huge step up for the organization and is generally exciting to watch (the play style is ugly, but the team is pretty good, you know what I mean.)

Meanwhile, very few people, maybe none, see this as a “championship or bust” team. Could we sneak past a better team in round one? even round two? Possibly! But that would take a lot of things going right, and I think everyone here sees that pretty clearly.

Most of the discussions we have are about what we would do to improve the team because that’s basically all that’s worth discussing… I’m not going to log in to write “good job, Leon, keep up the good work!” and then log out again. What’s the effing point?

As for the team, it’s not bad faith to think there’s a ceiling on certain players… opinions are just that, and they vary. I happen to think Brunson’s ceiling is higher than some might believe, while I think Mitch has probably fully hit his ceiling. Those are just takes! You don’t have to agree with me, but you don’t have to call it FO bootlicking or trolling either. You can just disagree.

Not to actual championship contention. There’s no path to that with this roster. It projects to be too good to be in the lottery (certainly the best parts of the lottery) but not good enough to ever seriously contend for a championship.

100% disagree.

That does not mean we will do it successfully, but when you have all your own 1st round picks, 4 excess 1st round picks of good total value, the potential for multiple swaps, several attractive young players, several attractive contracts, a large expiring contract, and no clearly bad contracts, not only can you leverage those picks/duplicative player/expiring assets into a huge upgrade at one position that does not gut the team because it’s so pick heavy, some people think we can pull off a major upgrade and another smaller one.

There are no guarantees we will do that in the same way there are no guarantees the Spurs are going to draft solid running mates for Wembanyama and that will all develop into stars.

All you can do is be positioned well and see what happens. We are positioned well.

I knew exactly whom General Buck Turgidson was when I read it.

Yay!!!

I declare myself: winner of the internet…just for the day okay…

It feels good to be a winner. I can feel a whole world of glorious possibilities opening up before me, now that I have won the internet.

All glory be to me.

Strat, why are you on the warpath?

That would be like saying The Spurs are screwed because even though they drafted Wembanyama and have a potential star, they still suck and will have to get lucky 2-3 more times in the draft and then still fill out the role players to become contenders.

See, this is either disingenuous or just a foolish take. Why is it crazy to think Wemby has a higher ceiling than RJ, Quickley, and Grimes put together? And don’t we all agree that finding that 1A star is the hardest thing to do? Wouldn’t you trade basically most of your roster for one? Having Wemby—who isn’t proven but is considered by most experts to be a future star—is not the same as having our young guys.

Let’s face it, there are still some people here that can’t get past the belief that tanking is the only thing that works

Who are you talking about? E? Someone else? Even E has made it clear that he sees trade options he would sign off on to make the team better. You’re saying this is a black/white issue when it really isn’t.

Ahh, I see what’s going on here. It’s a defense of the beloved hybrid method. No matter what you do, don’t criticize the hybrid method! The third rail of Knickerblogger.

Never mind that every REAL contender in this league is built around a guy (or guys) they selected in the draft, and that literally zero of the current title contenders are hybrid-ing their way to glory. All of the top tier contenders feature star players that they drafted. Literally every single one.

The fact that we are in TPITRNBALWWAPGBNTTC despite a pretty goddamn good execution of the hybrid method should clue you in on how hard it is to actually make that work if your name is not Pat Riley. I’m impressed by how Leon has executed this suboptimal strategy, and we still have a few cards to play so maybe he can crash through the ceiling.

But for the most part you’re just gonna get beat by the teams that acquire their superstars in the draft. Source: the current standings, and every recent NBA champion.

Leon has executed the hybrid method pretty well, not perfectly by any stretch but much better than others who now find themselves in the vast hybrid graveyard e.g. the Bulls, Wizards, Pistons, Hornets.

The problem is the hybrid method sucks, so despite his solidly above average performance this all still may not amount to much. It really only works if you do an A/A+ job.

The camp that thinks Leon deserves credit isn’t wrong–again, he’s executed the hybrid method well. The camp that thinks Leon hasn’t put us in a good position to be a contender isn’t wrong–it’s very, very hard to do so via the hybrid method. That’s the tension here.

He’ll either land the plane and be one of the few GMs to ever truly pull off the hybrid method, or he won’t and he’ll confirm to many that the strategy sucks.

I’m pretty much in agreement with all that TNFH said…except this:

“There is basically nothing we can do to improve our situation between now and the purely theoretical star trade. We have to sit back and hope there is, in fact, a star trade.”

This strikes me as the essence of “inside the box” thinking that undergirds the whole “mezzanine/purgatoryTPITRNBALWWAPGBNTTC wing of this discussion.

For example, it was proclaimed that free agency was dead. Yet three of our rotation players, including the only “chrome and leather” player on the roster, was acquired via free agency. While I get that none of these guys are Kevin Durant, it just shows that a method of substantially improving the team at minimal asset cost is not really “dead” at all.

Much has been made about missed opportunities in the draft setting the rebuild effort back. And yet we have substantially improved the team with picks and, in Hart’s case, with the trade of a pick. We have used picks to both dump salary to generate cap space and to shift the risk/reward inherent in making a pick to the future, preserving much/most/all of the value of a given present pick. We can and have argued about the pros and cons of those non-traditional moves, but at the end of the day, we’re in a favorable position in that regard.

And because of that, we are still in a position where the team can be incrementally improved with non-blockbuster transactions….including actually using draft picks! While the FO chose to do otherwise in the past two years, I don’t believe that that means they have forsworn the draft forever. In fact, trading up is as real of a possibility as it ever was.

And I am not moved by the screaming sirens of the impending second apron. Some very sober calculations will need to be made by guys like Brock Aller and Walt Perrin to determine whether it is necessary to part with talent in order to stay below that apron. For example, what is IQ really worth? Jalen Brunson? RJ? Julius? Mitch?

There is also the possibility that Leon will decide it’s time to move on from Thibs. I think it was pretty close to that around this time last year. He bought himself some grace with the success of last season, but with Thibs, things can get volatile in a hurry.

So I’m not feeling the “we’re in a holding pattern with an impending expiration date” vibe.

But beyond that, pretty much agree with all.

All of the top tier contenders feature star players that they drafted. Literally every single one.

LAL made the Western Conference Finals last year without a major draft piece. They won a championship a few years ago.

The Clippers were considered contenders without any draft pieces before it fell apart due to injuries. And I’m not counting them out yet.

Kyrie and Durant Nets were considered contenders. No major draft piece.

The Harden Rockets didn’t have any notable drafted stars.

IQ seems to be taking yet another step forward this season and is pretty close to qualifying as our 3rd star/notable draft piece. He needs to play more.

I mean, can you exit the mezzanine once you’re there?

YES!

THANK YOU!

For the love of god, someone gets it.

mezzanine… implies being stuck and inflexible

WRONG!

That’s in your head.

Have you ever been in a mezzanine? There are exits and stairs and all sorts of ways to get out.

Ok, the Lakers won a few years ago because LeBron James wanted to play there. Not really a “hybrid” kind of situation but okay, let’s score that one for Team Hybrid.

The Kawhi/George Clippers, Harden Rockets, and Kyrie/Durant Nets all massively underachieved and didn’t come particularly close to winning anything, so that’s a “nah” on all of those.

The CURRENT top title contenders in the league, BOS, DEN, MIL, MIN, PHI, are all built around superstars they acquired with draft picks.

“All of the top tier contenders feature star players that they drafted. Literally every single one.”

I presume you are including Jaimie Jaquez and Austin Reeves in that list…

Edit: I seem to be slow typing today. I’ll go for a run now… y’all enjoy the view from the mezzanine.

Markaten seems reasonably attainable (UFA in 2025, playing in a shitty market) and would fit the team like a glove. If Danny Ainge didn’t exist I would say Leon should try like hell to make that happen.

And I am not moved by the screaming sirens of the impending second apron. Some very sober calculations will need to be made by guys like Brock Aller and Walt Perrin to determine whether it is necessary to part with talent in order to stay below that apron.

The problem is if we reach the point where we have to hemorrhage good players to duck the second apron, that’s a failure in and of itself that sets us back, and it’s not like we have a great margin of error as is.

Right now, we can keep most of our talent and still swing a big trade. That changes if and when certain things happen e.g. Fournier comes off the books, IQ and Grimes get extended, etc.

It’s hard for me to see us being able to bounce back if we have to piss away talent because we didn’t accumulate enough of it before we hit the second-apron. My guess is Leon and co. agree, and view it as something of a deadline.

Hart shot 30.4% last season before the trade. He finished the season at 37.2%.

The prior year, he shot 32.3% for the Pelicans before hitting 37.3% for Portland after a trade that year. It was only 13 games, but enough to lift him to a respectable 34.3%.

For whatever reason he seems to thrive after getting traded.

James Dolan modeled the mezzanine after his good friends’ song, Hotel California. You can check-in anytime you want, but you can never leave.

I’ve been stuck here since Friday, please send help.

Since the music of The O.C. has come up a few times here over the course of me working on the book, I thought any of you who subscribe to SiriusXM might enjoy the fact that I got to guest host an hour on the PopRocks station where I introduce various iconic O.C. songs. It already ran once today, is on demand on the Sirius app, and here’s the schedule for the next week:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GACv3RHW8AAuMOY?format=jpg&name=large

Markaten seems reasonably attainable (UFA in 2025, playing in a shitty market) and would fit the team like a glove.

Markaten was obviously gettable in the Spida summer. They should have gone after him then. (Actually, they should have gone after him the second Chicago didn’t extend him after his third year but whatever.)

Since the music of The O.C. has come up a few times here over the course of me working on the book, I thought any of you who subscribe to SiriusXM might enjoy the fact that I got to guest host an hour on the PopRocks station where I introduce various iconic O.C. songs. It already ran once today, is on demand on the Sirius app, and here’s the schedule for the next week:

Thanks, Alan — nice recaps on The Curse, by the way. I’m both enjoying … and clicking!!

Mitch, RJ, IQ, and Grimes were acquired via the draft. The Heat acquired a star via the draft in Bam Adebayo. However, their best player was acquired via a sign-and-trade…without him they would be garbage. Butler is the straw that stirs that drink.

The Lakers won a championship with LeBron and AD, neither of whom were drafted. They used draft pick and both drafted and acquired players to get them.

The Nets had a team favored to win a championship that exploded due to COVID. The draft had very little to do with how they built that team.

The Suns lucked into a finals appearance after a 51 win season because they acquired an aging superstar via trade. No on else on the team had a BPM of above 4.0, and their other superstar Devin Booker played to a 0.3 that year. They were not a contender before or after that year, until lo and behold, they traded a bunch of players and picks for Kevin Durant. Did anyone see that coming?

Toronto won a championship because they acquired Kawhi Leonard via trade. Without him becoming available, they would be as mezzanine as any team in the NBA, and they have shown that since he left.

Meanwhile, is Philly a contender? Call me when they get out of the second round. Minny? Same thing. OKC? Same. Spurs? Same.

What the Knicks need right now is the same thing that all of these teams either needed, or need. Patience, opportunism, and luck.

lauri markkanen is a nice idea but ultimately probably not that guy either… his assisted 2p fg% is rather high for a high usage guy… which is not the end of the world.. but really hard to fit in a lineup of guys who already don’t create shots well besides brunson….

at the very least it will never work with thibs’ offense unless we’re gonna ask him to hold the ball at the elbow and spinmeister his way to the hoop so 3 guys can stuff him every play….

Leon has executed the hybrid method pretty well…

The problem is the hybrid method sucks

I’m gonna flip this on you. I actually like the hybrid method, and I think Leon has executed it terribly.

To hybrid well, you have to draft. You don’t have to tank, but you have to draft.

Think of the hybrid masters: Riley and Morey. Riley drafted Bam & Herro, Morey drafted Maxey. Both those guys would be dead in the water if they had punted on those picks like Leon does.

Think of the LA teams. They used players they drafted (SGA, Ingram) to land their stars. You think LA could have pried Paul George from OKC with lottery protected picks from Detroit and Washington instead of SGA? Hell no.

Leon has fucked up the draft, and that’s why his hybrid is stuck in the mud. He did not need to tank. He just needed to draft. Tyrese Halliburton, Jalen Johnson, Jalen Williams. Put those guys on our team right now, and this hybrid would be lit.

“The Kawhi/George Clippers, Harden Rockets, and Kyrie/Durant Nets all massively underachieved and didn’t come particularly close to winning anything, so that’s a “nah” on all of those.”

So because injuries, COVID, bad bounces, etc. derail what most felt were surefire contenders (Nets were heavily favored to win a championship and might have if KD’s toe was a bit shorter) that makes the entire process a “nah?”

The Pels drafted all-powerful generational talent Zion and didn’t come close to winning anything so nah.

The Pistons drafted Killian, Cade, Ivey and are the worst team in the NBA so nah.

The Blazers drafted Dame and never did shit so nah.

The Wizards drafted Wall, Beal, Otto, Rui, and Avdija, so nah.

The Mavs drafted Doncic. Are they better positioned to be contenders than we are right now? Nah.

On and on and on….

I think the point that any method has to be executed well to succeed* (*but also requires some luck) is totally valid.

I also think the point that draft picks should be made by hybrid-ing teams is valid, although you still have to draft the correct players when you do make the picks. The Knicks’ FO clearly has slowed the hybrid process with their decision-making on draft day, whether they drafted or not.

But that happens with traditional rebuilds as well. When you squander high lottery picks on Josh Jackson and Dragen Bender, you set your draft-based rebuild back, just like when you trade out of picks to create marginal space and preserve theoretical value.

And it happens in other ways. The FO blundered by running it back with the mercs in 2021, and that cost them dearly, and is part of why they didn’t make picks in 2022. Bad trades and bad signings have costs, just like bad draft decisions.

The question is always whether those costs derail the effort or just set it back. For all the negative moves, there have been corresponding great moves that have gotten them to this point. Do you run into a predetermined ceiling if you keep up the two steps forward-one step back approach? We’ll see.

One of the reasons the Kawhi/George Clippers and Durant/Irving Nets didn’t really succeed is that short windows are an inherent flaw of the hybrid method. Draft a superstar at 20 and you’re set for a long time if the guy isn’t desperate to bolt. Build around aging superstars, and you get a much smaller window simply because they’re closer to their decline phase. Kawhi and George and Durant get hurt all the time because they have played a billion minutes in the NBA. It’s not random misfortune that those older players suffered lots of injuries.

A lot of the rebuilds people tout are successful because those teams already had star players to trade away. They didn’t go straight into a rebuild with only one 1st each year.

OKC landed both SGA and the Jalen Williams pick by moving Paul George.

Orlando stole Wendell Carter and the Franz Wagner pick by trading away Vucevic.

Indy got Hali only because they already had Sabonis to trade away.

The key to a good rebuild is being in a place to make multiple picks each year. Right now, the Knicks are in a position where they’ll be able to move Randle, Brunson, IQ, and Mitch for picks when it’s time for a rebuild.

We’re closer to a successful rebuild now than we were before Leon took over.

One of the reasons the Kawhi/George Clippers and Durant/Irving Nets didn’t really succeed is that short windows are an inherent flaw of the hybrid method.

But this doesn’t really apply to us. Maybe it’s a criticism of other hybrid methods, but the Knicks are all under 30.

Think of the hybrid masters: Riley and Morey. Riley drafted Bam & Herro, Morey drafted Maxey. Both those guys would be dead in the water if they had punted on those picks like Leon does.

The Heat made zero picks in the years 2016, 2018, and 2021.

Philly made zero draft picks this year and immediately traded their only pick last year for DeAnthony Melton.

“One of the reasons the Kawhi/George Clippers and Durant/Irving Nets didn’t really succeed is that short windows are an inherent flaw of the hybrid method. Draft a superstar at 20 and you’re set for a long time if the guy isn’t desperate to bolt. Build around aging superstars, and you get a much smaller window simply because they’re closer to their decline phase. Kawhi and George and Durant get hurt all the time because they have played a billion minutes in the NBA. It’s not random misfortune that those older players suffered lots of injuries.”

This take is dismissive all the risk inherent in endeavoring to draft a superstar at 20, especially in the flattened lottery era. When you trade for someone like Durant or Butler or Kawhi, you are getting a proven player. Teams like SAC, DET, ORL, CHA have spun their wheels for years fishing around for said star in the draft. And teams that are actually successful in drafting said 20yo superstar can wind up with a short window. Minny drafted KAT in 2015 and now he’s 28 and they still have nothing to show for it. PHI drafted the MVP in 2014 hasn’t gotten any further in the playoffs than we did last year. What’s their window now? What is CLE’s window if the Spida thing doesn’t work out? What is Dallas’s window if they get knocked out in the first round again? What was Portland’s window with Dame?

Until the draft picks in our arsenal are either used in a trade for a star, used to actually make draft picks, or used to do cap-related stuff, there is no way to tell what this team’s ceiling is beyond this year or how long the window will be if and when it opens. Maybe we draft Jokic 2.0 at #42 instead of Trevor Keels and that makes all the difference, as it did for Denver. Or maybe we acquire another underrated late-bloomer like Brunson. For me, that’s the exciting thing about this story…the ending is less predictable than it has been for a long time.

In any case, the hybrid vs. tank argument is not the same as the draft vs. punt argument.

The Heat made zero picks in the years 2016, 2018, and 2021.

Philly made zero draft picks this year and immediately traded their only pick last year for DeAnthony Melton.

You’re talking a lot but you’re not saying anything.

Miami gave up their 2016 pick for LeBron James, dude. That’s not the same as punting.

Here is hoping for a wire to wire ass whooping of the hornets/bobcats/lafrances’ this evening.

What is good Hubert? You kind of sound like you have leveled up recently. You sound good. I hope all is as well as it sounds hubie.

You’re talking a lot but you’re not saying anything.

If your argument rests on two examples of execs who have made fewer draft picks than Leon, then the argument that Rose needs to make more draft picks might not be that great.

Miami gave up their 2016 pick for LeBron James, dude. That’s not the same as punting.

Sure let’s take that away.

Since Rose has been hired, he’s made 7 draft picks. In that same timespan, Riley has made 3 draft picks.

Riley is not an example of an executive who makes draft picks every year.

If your argument rests on two examples of execs who have made fewer draft picks than Leon,

It does not.

Since Rose has been hired, he’s made 7 draft picks. In that same timespan, Riley has made 3 draft picks.

And in those four seasons, the Heat have made two NBA finals and one ECF. They are clearly not in a rebuilding phase like the Knicks were in the 2020, 2021, and 2022 drafts.

Think of the hybrid masters: Riley and Morey. Riley drafted Bam & Herro, Morey drafted Maxey. Both those guys would be dead in the water if they had punted on those picks like Leon does.

I mean… the hybrid masters are okay not making picks. Seems like not making picks is a perfectly fine strategy.

Your argument is that we should be imitating them, and we are.

Of the 3 picks Riley has made since 2020—three total picks mind you, including 1sts and 2nds—one of them (Achiuwa) was traded after his rookie season for a 35yo Kyle Lowry. Achiuwa was picked 1 spot ahead of Tyrese Maxey and before Desmond Bane and IQ. There’s probably no GM in the business who cares less about draft picks than Pay Riley.

the hybrid masters are okay not making picks

When they needed stars, they made their picks.

This is about what you do when you’re rebuilding, not what you do when you’re in the NBA finals, not what you do when you have Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tyrese Maxey.

There’s probably no GM in the business who cares less about draft picks than Pay Riley.

Riley drafted 4 of the top 7 players in the Heat’s current rotation.

He also used a player he drafted to acquire a 5th, his starting PG.

When he has not made picks, it’s because he traded the picks to acquire LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Jimmy Butler, and Goran Dragic.

Good night, EB. And good luck in school tomorrow.

I’m gonna flip this on you. I actually like the hybrid method, and I think Leon has executed it terribly.

To hybrid well, you have to draft. You don’t have to tank, but you have to draft.

The key to succeeding without high picks and without a lot of assets to spare, AKA the hybrid method, is to get large ROIs on your players. Get more production out of them than most teams do for comparable money, draft picks, or other assets spent. Making good draft picks is obviously a great opportunity to get these kinds of ROIs, but it’s not the only way.

As a whole, Leon has generated pretty good ROIs. His ROI on Brunson is outstanding–he’d literally double his AAV on the open market.

Without opening the whole Randle can of worms, I think we all agree that his current contract underpays him for his regular season contributions in a Good Randle year (Leon of course did not originally acquire Randle, but did sign him to said contract).

The draft has been more of a mixed bag than you acknowledge. Obi was an enormous whiff, 2021 was an own goal, and while we disagree about 2022 as a general transaction I definitely won’t argue Leon got a good ROI on his trade(s)–it’s one big TBD from me.

However, IQ was picked 25th and is currently 5th among 2020 draftees in VORP. It wouldn’t shock me if he overtakes Bane before too long. This was a legitimately great pick that has softened the blow of a lot of his errors.

Grimes was picked 25th and is currently 8th among 2021 draftees in VORP. Hell, Sims was picked 58th and is currently 14th among 2021 draftees in VORP.

We wouldn’t be as good as we are if Leon didn’t generate some value with his draft picks. Overall, he’s been a good-not-great hybrider.

OT: I’ve been offered a free ticket to Falcons/Jets and I don’t think I’ve ever turned down such a thing without a real reason, but the thought of watching two bad teams I don’t care about go at it on a cold, rainy day in New Jersey is pretty unappealing. Might have to hit it with the “I am free, but I do not want to do that activity”

I don’t think I’ve ever turned down such a thing without a real reason

The pain of traveling to & from Met Life stadium is a real enough reason.

In the last ten years, I’ve only gone there for Wrestlemania, Metallica, the 2016 Copa America final, and…. (is there any way I can type this in a smaller font?)… (I really want to whisper this under my breath)… Taylor Swift.

Now, *here* is a typo that I actually like!: “There’s probably no GM in the business who cares less about draft picks than Pay Riley.”

He also used a player he drafted to acquire a 5th, his starting PG.

Got it. It’s okay for Miami to move young picks/players for 35yos but not okay for the Knicks to move them for 27yos or future draft picks. Makes sense.

Riley drafted 4 of the top 7 players in the Heat’s current rotation.

And in last year’s Finals run, the Heat played only one of their draft picks more than 20 total minutes throughout the entire playoffs. One.

When he has not made picks, it’s because he traded the picks to acquire LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Jimmy Butler, and Goran Dragic.

Only 1 of those guys was one the team for last year’s finals run. They made it despite having few draft picks over the last decade.

And why not roast him for drafting Precious Achiuwa over Tyrese Maxey, IQ, and Desmond Bane?

Good night, EB. And good luck in school tomorrow.

You love calling me names anytime you lose an argument.

You were wrong about how much Morey and Riley love picks. You can just say “Gee, guess I was wrong” and move on.

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