Knicks Morning News (2023.08.02)

I don’t see anything wrong with RJ’s body. He’s probably lifting weights in a healthy way, like he (and all NBA players) should be. I doubt that his weight fluctuates more than 5 lbs a year. It’s pretty normal for NBA players to fill out in their age 20-25 years. In other words, I’m not concerned that what happened to Mitch when he put on like 60 lbs in a couple of years will happen to RJ. Even in Mitch’s case, his loss of speed/agility was partly injury-related and mostly temporary, and the gain in muscle mass and strength was a huge factor in him becoming as dominant under the boards as he is now. “Good” bulk is never a bad thing.

For the upcoming season, assuming that the roster stays largely intact, it is reasonably likely that RH will be a combo forward, splitting time like 75%-25% between the 3 and the 4. That’s going to require more physical strength.

I also expect RJ to try to up his FTr by getting switched onto smaller players in the PnR and physically attacking them. Last season he significantly upped his conversion rate at the rim and from 3-10 ft and had career highs in both zones, but his FTr stagnated. He needs to get up to 7+ FTA per 36 while converting more than 50% of his 2’s. In that sense, he kind of needs to model Randle’s offensive game from last year…or DeRozan’s or Butler’s…which seems to be the path that he’s on and what he’s working towards.

“Don’t want to be labeled a “hater”, but this is my monthly reminder that RJ played abysmally in his 4th NBA year.”

Not a hater, just a reasonable skeptic with an entrenched POV based on one way of looking at 4 years of data. I’ll continue to issue my monthly rebuttal that he hasn’t played an NBA minute at older than age 22, that he’s playing big minutes for the most demanding defensive coach in the league, and that his problem is with consistency, not ability.

“Sure, he had an average string of playoff games, but that doesn’t mean you should wishcast greatness onto the guy.”

Who is doing that right now? If the answer is “nobody” then maybe this is an unnecessary statement in the context of this discussion.

As to me, I’m simply pointing out some things he’s working on and how they might help with his likely role next year. He might improve, or he might not. I believe he can, because he just turned 23. I also think his playoff performance was better than average (especially for a high-usage player and compared to his KB-friendly young teammates) and am reasonably confident that it does means something positive, i.e. not just a random hot streak. We’ll see!

RJ Barrett has very little in common with PJ Tucker.

Tucker played 83 minutes in the NBA before age 27. He did not play a minute of playoff basketball before age 31. He was so bad that he left the NBA for 5 seasons and played in 6 countries. Lo and behold, he improved past age 22!

RJ has had 1,328 FT attempts in 4 years and 9,000 minutes. Tucker has had 958 FT attempts in 12 years and over 24,000 minutes.

RJ is a high-usage player. Tucker has a career usage rate of 11%… it was never greater than 14% and is often in single digits. And even with the low usage, PJ’s career TS% is .539.

It’s a terrible comparison.

“I think the real problem is I’m quite confident we wouldn’t be worse, despite RJ Barrett being one of our highest paid and highest usage players.”

RJ’s contract is actually pretty commensurate with players at his minutes level and usage. And that’s besides him having the upside of a just 23yo, compared to, say, Jordan Poole or Kyle Kuzma. He’s more in the camp of a Kelden Johnson, who is nearly a year older and very statistically similar, who signed for less but is on a tanking team and maybe should have held out for more. RJ is clearly an upside bet and is currently overpaid. It’s certainly fair to criticize Leon for extending him without more evidence….maybe a KJ-size contract would have been more appropriate. Still, at the end of the day, it comes down to whether one feels that RJ is largely a finished product (like you and others believe) or that as he just turned 23 he still has significant upside and is reasonably likely to significantly improve (like I and others believe.) He certainly doesn’t have to be a legit all-star to earn that contract.

“First off Obi was traded for 2 bad seconds and cap space. If the Knicks hadn’t prioritized taking nothing back they could have gotten a much better return. ”

So if they waited they could have gotten what? You can fantasize about what they would have gotten it they waited, but the fact is that they got shit for him and could have generated cap space in other ways. It’s also known that he had very little value to Ainge during the Spida negotiations. But hey, if they got back a single unprotected second instead of the two “lesser of” picks we got, I suppose that would qualify as a “much better” return. If you think anyone was giving up a protected first for him if Leon waited, well, whatever.

“Second, the Pacers were looking at trading for a star PF, not any PF. ”

All that definitively means that they don’t view Obi as a starting-caliber PF and are actively looking for a better option than the guy they just traded for. Here’s proof of that.. It’s kind of telling that the “stars” they are looking into include Tobias Harris and Harrison Barnes.

“Do you think them chasing a star PF means they don’t like Walker as well?”

Jarace Walker is a 19yo rookie and very few rookies that are legitimate starters for competitive teams in their rookie years. Obi has been in the league for three years and is 25 years old. It’s a ridiculous comparison.

“I know you need to cling to the idea that Obi has no value and never will because you need to defend Thibs and the front office but the Obi trade did nothing to really determine his value either way.”

Kind of a dickish thing to say…I don’t “need” to defend Thibs or the front office. I defend them when I agree with them, and I criticize them when I don’t. In fact, it’s ironic that you said what you did in a context where I’ve consistently opined that picking Obi over Hali was one of the very dumbest move this FO has made. I have also agreed with Obi’s stans that he should have played somewhat more and that Thibs should have used the Obi-Randle small lineup more. Where we differ is that I think Obi would have been a huge liability as a consistent starter. I’m sticking with that opinion until he shows me otherwise, either with Indiana or elsewhere.

Also, even though I was very disappointed that the Knicks picked Obi over Hali, I hoped for the best. I have mentioned multiple times that Obi is from the town next to me and I have a sports connection to his family. No one here wanted to see him succeed more than I did. Sadly, I believe that he would be an absolute disaster on defense as a starter and mercilessly targeted in that role, and for that reason, the few bright spots in his offensive game are not enough to convince me that he is anything but a 15-20 minute energy guy off the bench on a good team. The way I feel about him is independent of how Thibs feels about him, but I mostly concur with his opinion on what Obi’s role has been on the Knicks.

Raise your hand if you correctly predicted going into last year that the Knicks, coached by Tom Thibodeau, would have the 3rd best offensive rating in the NBA, tied for 4th in NBA history.

Personally, being that I was not one of those who made the above prediction, I can cut Thibs some slack for not spending much time figuring out how to run more plays in line with Obi’s and iHart’s special talents.