Knicks Morning News (2023.06.17)

I enjoyed the back-and-forth on RJ yesterday. Here’s my take:

There is no doubt that statistically speaking, RJ has been woefully inconsistent on both ends of the floor. There is also validity to the argument that there are few players to compare him to because it is rare that a coach would allow a such a bad (statistically speaking) player to have no guard rails on his game whatsoever. I can only recall two times that RJ was benched for the entire fourth quarter for stinking out the joint; and a larger but still small smattering of games where his 4th quarter minutes were limited, mainly because Thibs just went with what was working rather than as a “yanking” due to poor play. So he has largely avoided being held accountable…in his first year because whatever, and since because of Thibs’ infatuation with his propensity to make “winning plays” that only he can see. (There’s probably al least some truth to this, but whatever…) And that’s the problem…he has been coddled and spoiled by getting too much rope.

That said, I, for one, am willing to throw out the entire 10,000 minute sample of RJ’s mostly shitty play on the basis of it all taking place at an age where he could have still been in college (Obi Toppin was around RJ’s current age as a rookie.)

Because of that, I have a good feeling about him becoming a “solid” NBA starter during his current contract. I think the shooting will improve, the decision-making (e.g. shot selection) will improve, and the advanced numbers will improve. Why?

1) He has a Mamba mindset, for lack of a better way of putting it. He will not accept topping out at this level. He knows that he needs to improve and he will work his ass off to do do. I bet he reads what is written about him, and feels stung by it. He’s a smart kid, and yet, he is a kid. As he matures, he will understand the limitations of his game on a higher level.

2) The beauty of having Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart in the fold is that they are positive role models for RJ of the kind he has never had in the past. I think they will have a major positive impact on RJ in terms of a) being more of a team-oriented player and b) working on specific aspects of his game.

3) There is clearly an NBA-starter skillset there to build on. Thibs knows this and believes in it. I’m 100% in on the “appeal to authority” argument here. Bloggerheads can quibble all they want with the stubbornness regarding Elfrid Payton’s overuse in 2020-21, but in nearly all cases, Thibs’ rotational/minutes-allocation decisions have paid off in winning basketball. He was patient with Randle and as such he silenced the doubters who wanted to trade Randle at rock-bottom value with sweetener attached. I feel that the same thing is happening this year. Folks want RJ Barrett included in deals at what is possibly his lowest value. That is bad asset management, just as dumping Randle would have been bad asset management last year.

In summary, sure, if you can upgrade the positional situation from “solid” to “star” by using RJ, fine, I’m down with that. But the notion of dumping him based on this 22yo and under stats seems extremely short-sighted. In other words, the arguments made yesterday could be true at the same time…RJ has sucked and may continue to suck, but he has very clear and legitimate ways to blossom in the right kind of developmental soil, namely one where he is surrounded by mature, championship-level leaders.

“That leaves RJ who is a negative on both sides right now. He’s going to get better, but what’s the top? As I keep saying, you don’t make a deal just to make a deal, but that’s the position of weakness that makes the most sense if we can find a deal.”

I see that point, but for me it’s more important to consider a player’s relative value regarding his contract and positional scarcity.

For example, re: Mitch…he is probably at his peak value-wise, locked up on a longer-term descending deal…but at a position that is easier to fill at a reasonable cost, especially given the trade-offs involved with Mitch’s game. So you kind of know what both his present and future value is in a trade. And there’s more of a chance that some desperate Western team sees Mitch as some kind of antibody against Jokici-tis that they will give you back something excellent in a trade…then you just slot iHart in and pay a pittance for a solid backup C (iHart may have been the best backup C in the NBA last year, so making him a starter isn’t exactly a stretch.)

With RJ, any opposing GM would have to buy in to RJ’s theoretical upside given the size and length of his contract. In my opinion, that surpresses his market value at this time. I share the sentiment that he will likely improve over time, and as such, the value in a trade for an improved RJ on a shorter and increasingly modest deal will be higher in the future than it is right now. And who knows? Maybe he blossoms into a keeper!

Of course, if you find a GM that thinks more like E than TNFH and is drooling of the prospect of paying RJ $30M in two years, you let them go all Isiah and give up multiple picks or a star for the privilege.

But trading him along with multiple firsts for someone like OG or LaVine or god forbid Beal seems like bad asset management to me.