Knicks Morning News (2023.02.14)

If you want a good laugh, check out the commentary on Peachtree Hoops during last night’s game thread vs. Charlotte. There are some references to the Knicks.

https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2023/2/13/23598587/game-thread-hawks-at-hornets

In his postgame presser, Thibs referenced how Brunson and Hart were successful under the intense pressure of the NCAA tournament and how that suggests that they are not fazed by the bright lights of MSG and the pressure of big games. I don’t know whether those are qualtities that can rub off on others, but if they are, that would be cool!

Here’s a question that probably never would have been a question before recently: would you trade Brunson for Trae straight up?

My answer is a very definitive NO! And not just because Fuck Trae Young or their respective contracts.

JK I somewhat agree but still think more patience is necessary. The problem is that you just invested in a 4-year make-good deal that hasn’t even kicked in yet, probably at the behest of said coach. His current level of play makes that deal very hard to move.

Sure, if you can find a sucker to take him off your hands, by all means. But we know that that isn’t happening.

The best hope (beyond some kind of dramatic turnaround in RJ’s play) is that he becomes salary-filler in a trade for a disgruntled star on a disappointing team. There are 22 or so non-tanking teams right now. Only 8 of them will make the conference semi’s. Some of the other 14 are getting to the end of a “go for it” cycle and looking to break up the band. Others are looking for draft picks to swing a bigger deal, maybe a 3-way. Beyond that, I just don’t see a reason to dump him at rock-bottom value. It’s similar to the way I felt about Julius last offseason.

Let’s see if we can build his value up at least somewhat before pulling the plug, at least until some non-harmful trade opportunity comes along.

I love that this discussion is sort of grounded in an assumption that we have high expectations for this team, both this year and beyond. Seems like we’re talking about how much better Mitch will make us and how detrimental RJ is for us in that context.

Purgatory sure is fun!

I agree with swifty. On top of that, I wonder if the NYC lifestyle is starting to be a factor for RJ, in other words, if the fame that has gone to his head is exacerbated by being a “star” in the most cosmopolitan city in the country.

It really bugged me when he was recently benched in the 4th Q and reacted by saying “I have nothing to say because my mom taught me that if you have nothing good to say, don’t say anything…” That’s a 22 year old whose head has gotten too big for his hat. And now that for the first time his league-leading playing time is threatened, he’s got some thinking to do.

It also probably irks him that Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson are apparently very close. I wonder how he felt when he saw Brunson’s viral reaction when he learned that Hart was on the team. He’s sure playing like it hit him hard, and that there’s some jealousy involved. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Brunson has gotten frustrated with RJ’s low-IQ play and gossips about it with Hart.

Obviously this is all conjecture and unsubstantiated wonderings on my part. We’ll see how things unfold.

“The solution for RJ is for him to become a better shooter, but I guess that’s easier said than done.”

That’s a big part of the solution, but there’s many areas where he needs to improve to be a legit starter.

I also saw RJ yucking it up with teammmates and opponents after the game’s end looking happy as can be, including with Brunson, Hart and Mikal. So I doubt tht he was pissed at anything but his own bad play in the moment.

“…a really bad comparison when Hart is flying around like a free safety”

Funny, I just used that analogy when discussing JHart with my daughter who is now smitten with the Knicks bug (my girls were courtside right behind RJ’s game winning banker vs. the Celts last year so it’s not my fault!). He’s a football player playing basketball.

Or maybe soccer player is a better analogy?

EB is funny!

Here’s a continuation of our discussion via Eric Samuski on AMNY, who contends that advanced metrics suggest that it’s actually RJ’s defense that is the most alarming issue:

https://www.amny.com/sports/josh-hart-success-and-rj-barrett-questions/

According to FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR metric, Barrett is the 93rd-ranked small forward in basketball in Defensive RAPTOR. There are only 99 small forwards that qualify. Last season, he ranked 83rd of 125 qualified players, and in 2020-21, he ranked 61st out of 103 qualified defenders, so he has always been below average and appears to be getting worse.

That regression is supported by another NBA analytics metric called DARKO, which is a continuously-evolving projection system that uses NBA box scores, tracking data, and other game-level information from Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com, and Darryl Blackport’s pbpstats.com to provide an understanding of player talent. It’s similar to the more often cited advanced stats used in baseball, like Steamer or ZiPS.

Barrett’s profile for 2022-23 shows a player who is in the 80th percentile as an offensivee player and gets to the free-throw line at a strong rate but is an average three-point shooter and one of the worst-graded defenders in the league. As a result, he ranks below the 50th percentile as an overall player in the DARKO metric.

“TNFH says:
January 19, 2023 at 15:11
Looks like we’re in for about 14 games without Mitch. 4-10 might be optimistic.”

“Z–man says:
January 19, 2023 at 20:51
The Knicks will certainly miss Mitch. I won’t.”

This is kinda what I meant when I said that not having Mitch has been a good thing for the Knicks in the big scheme of things. Most of us would have been “okay” with a 7-6 record WITH Mitch. This stretch showed that while he is a vital part of the team, he is far more replaceable than Brunson, Randle, or even IQ. Mitch can be trade bait and losing him can actually improve the team if it is done correctly. This stretch has demonstrated that in spades.

“Z–man says:
January 20, 2023 at 12:54
Let the Spurs ask for whatever they want for Poeltl…let’s see if they get it.

If we were offered two firsts for Mitch, would you take it?”

As it turned out, the Spurs accepted a protected first rounder, two second rounders and Khem Birch.

I would virtually guarantee that Mitchell Robinson would bring back less than that.

The degree to which Mitch is overvalued here never ceases to amaze me. He’s a market value player this year, and a somewhat above that value due to his descencing contract in the next 3 years. But let’s not act like his contract is anywhere near as advantageous to us as Randle’s or Brunson’s (or IQ’s for now). It’s just not.