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84 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2023.01.07)”
Good revenge win, every player did something to help the cause.
A lot of good things in this game but a couple of disturbing trends too.
Again we blew a good lead and tried to lose the game, our already clunky h/c offense always become an hopeless struggle in the clutch, when we just hope and pray that Brunson save us (and JB, compared to previous years, makes a huge difference), and we suddenly are unable to make even a single stop on defense (I always feel like our opponents’ FG% in close games is around 90%).
And again we shot under 70% on FTs, with Randle and Brunson taking steps towards normalcy but still with way to go (5 misses combined).
Brunson struggled against Toronto’s lenght (5 TOs) but got better as the game went on and was crucial at the end, we wouldn’t have won this game without his last 3-point play.
Randle had another very good game but his trend of sizzling hot starts and struggles when fatigue hit continues (6-8 in the 1st qrt, 4-14 after), let’s hope that Obi’s return will help ease Julius’ burden and keep him fresher.
Mitch dominated the boards and was able to play 35 minutes despite his fouls troubles.
Grimes was an unusual -19, but I like his trend of attacking closeouts and I’m okay if he keeps up 40% on threes with good volume.
IQ couldn’t hit from long range but did a lot of good things and his foul chasing at the end of the 3rd, which brought 2 FTs and put us up 3 (after FVV missed the chance to tie the game) was a huge turnaround when you consider how this game has ended.
E4, Deuce and I-Hart* quietly made a strong contribution to this win, Sims played too little to have an impact.
Thibs… we won so he’s right. I’m a bit sad that we have to live with this very unimaginative offense but, as I already wrote, he’s going to run out his contract here, so let’s rejoice the wins and be happy with a winning season.
* I suffered from Achilles inflamation for more than a year and was able to get over it only with a PRP injection, whose benefits started to show 2 months after the procedure.
During that long time doctors told me to avoid abrupt movement (i.e. changing direction sharply) avoid running or jumping (“let the subway train go even if you’re late, take the next one”) and be very careful every time I went up or down a flight of steps.
True, I’m an overweight middle aged man and not a top notch athlete with the best medical cares in the world, but I wince every time I watch Hartenstein jump or change direction and I can understand why sometimes he looks so slow to move, like he’s not reacting on instincts but “thinking” about the move.
Re: OG
I’ve always liked him, he’s my kind of player and I don’t think Toronto is ready to make him available.
But I’m still not sold on paying a Spida-esque ransom, including multiple 1st rounders, for the Raptors 3rd or 4th best player (put Barnes, Siakam and FVV in whatever order you like).
Can he be obtained for Obi and one unprotected 1st? I’d do it in a split second…
This is one streaky ass team! Eight wins in a row, then five losses, then four wins! Cuh-razy!
That said, with the bottom of the East looking like it does, I find it hard to see the Knicks falling out of the Top 8, even if they go on a losing streak later on.
Just to clarify, I’m not trying to devalue Obi, it’s just that with Randle firmly entrenched in his role I don’t see a clear path to playing time for him and I think it’s better for his career to be traded to a team with a more “open” offense…
Didn’t watch this game but you guys managed to bring the W home. Nice work! 🙂
I like OG for our team, but he’s nowhere near Spida’s level (like him or not, he’s a top20 player). I would go up to Obi, Cam and 2 or 3 of our protected picks. More than that and it’s “nice talking to you, goodbye“.
So the night after sitting the entire 2nd half of a humiliating blowout loss to Denver, Kawhi and PG13 don’t play vs the Wolves and the Clips get blown out again.
I mean, wtf???
I can’t envision a “good” OG trade that will happen, given Masai’s shrewdness. Either we will overpay for him or he will disappoint, and possibly both.
I know some folks are on the “Hey, we’re just as good without RJ” train, but he was playing really well before he hurt his finger. Now the challenge will be how to work him and Obi back into the rotation. Who gets benched? Sims? Fournier? Deuce? Obviously IQ will lose a bunch of minutes to him…
Donnie, I don’t buy the minutes logic that RJ should already be at his peak. Players keep getting better mentally for a long time, but eventually their body get less capable and being smarter can no longer compensate for it. That’s why they peak in their late twenty’s. One trend starts to outweigh the other. So despite having played many minutes already, I think RJ can keep getting smarter about Basketball and he’s too young for his body’s decline to prevent him from playing better. That is, he is still likely to improve.
Z–Man and Knick fan niNJ: I agree that RJ was playing well, and I like him, but the team seemed a bit bogged down compared to the recent period when he has been injured. I would hate to see IQ and Grimes lose minutes. After all this time, I am really unsure about RJ’s overall impact and would not be very upset if the right trade was available.
Max: I miss your grading!
I think age is a more important factor than NBA minutes. We have no idea how other players who were either drafted at an older age or who played spot minutes during their young seasons would have fared in the massive amount of minutes that RJ received in his first 3+ years before age 22.
The fact is that the sample size of players who came into the league at age 19 and received 7000+ minutes and license to put up a 25% usage’s worth of inefficient shots is pretty small, so it’s not really possible to come to any firm conclusions on RJ’s ceiling based solely on counting NBA minutes.
If anything, RJ’s progression is another referendum on Thibs’ assessment of a young player’s potential under his coaching. He was all for giving Wiggins his rookie max extension and playing him big minutes. Yet he bailed on LaVine and Markkanen just to acquire Jimmy Butler. Wiggins has turned out better than most would have, but was never worthy of a max deal, and certainly Minny would have been better served to have chosen a different path than the one POBO Thibs charted for them.
At least here, RJ has a contract that makes sense, and Thibs doesn’t have license to burn young developing players to acquire his personal faves.
Hi Wayloncash, are you an newbie KBer or just a new name?
Sometimes necessity is the mother of invention, and maybe Thibs saw some things in RJ’s absence that will play into his decision-making about how to redefine RJ’s role so that it doesn’t marginalize Grimes’ and IQ’s positives.
Z–Man: I am most definitely not a newbie on the site, but I don’t post often. A long while ago my name was “DaJudge”. Anyway, I read the blog every day and have been a rabid fan since 1967 or thereabouts. Back to RJ, I agree with your ceiling assessment, but I guess it’s a matter of finding the proper mix and maybe a bit more consistency. It seems that Randle has benefited greatly from Brunson-hopefully RJ will as well.
What we are seeing is exactly what the Lakers envisioned when they drafted Randle. I don’t know if he’s maxed out yet because he can always be more efficient- but this version of Randle is without a doubt the 2nd best player on a contender and maybe the best player on a well balanced contending roster. Well balanced as in the Larry Brown Pistons archetype. What’s so great about how Randle’s been playing is Rose’s plan doesn’t need him to be the top dog. If he can magically find a trade for a star that doesn’t gut the rotation(I’m fine with trading a bunch of picks at the moment if necessary), we are probably looking at a serious contender with the way guys are playing. And as much as I love RJ, I’m willing to sacrifice him for this to happen..Obi too. I’d LOVE to see them blossom as Knicks, but dammit man we have something here if Randle keeps playing the way he has lately. The Brunson effect cannot be understated on this team too. He has single-handedly changed the culture already. Or gotten the team to refocus on Thibs’ vision at minimum.
I’m trying really hard not to overstate things, but I can clearly see what this team can be for once. Leon just has to make it happen. For me it’s less about wins and losses than it is about the way guys are coming together and playing.
DaJudge! Welcome back, of course I remember you!
What I’m hoping is that the Knicks are feeling what it feels like to be a good team, and learning what the difference is between winning and losing is in tight games. Brunson’s super-high leadership IQ and large cojones is a HUGE plus in reining in Randle’s and RJ’s worst instincts and supporting Thibs’ game plan.
And I think the injury luck has unleashed Grimes, IQ and Deuce (and Sims to a lesser degree) a bit so that they are growing more confident and contributing more to winning on a nightly basis.
While Randle is still miscast as the “alpha” too often, ultimately it appears that when we are at our best we are a team full of glue guys. While the offensive side of the ball can be ugly, it seems to be working and is mostly fun to watch. I’m down with what we’re doing right now and would be happy to roll with this team as is for the rest of the season.
Couple of random thoughts.
First, it’s been nice to limit my Thibs-hate lately, mostly due to non-horrible rotations. The only times I focus ire at the coach is when the offense goes into a funk, which maybe is a player thing (more on that in a sec) but I think relates to an embarrassingly simplistic, ancient, and anemic suite of offensive plays. It’ll be interesting to see if rotation-hate returns as RJ and Obi come back, per Z-Man’s comments. But somehow having the team top-10 in O and D deserves a tip of the cap.
Another thing: watching the collapse last night at the end of the game, it brought home a thought I’ve been having. Love Brunson, his grit, his scoring, the way he calms the team down and keeps certain people from doing their worst. But I’m not sure he’s yet a classic point guard orchestrator, in the way that Nash or CP3 were/are. Maybe this is on Thibs (hate?) for having Brunson inbound the ball during that horrid stretch instead of receiving it and managing the offense. Curious how others perceive this, as it’s really more of a question than a statement.
Raven-I agree that Brunson is not the classic PG in the mold of the greats you mention. He lacks the vision and passing ability (he is a decent passer) of the greats, but he is certainly a fearless leader with wonderful focus and he’s a pretty cool Clydelike cat. As to the inbounds pass-I do not think he should have been inbounding at that point. As an aside, I am absolutely thrilled with Grimes-very skilled, sneaky quick and what a pick!
The Knicks had multiple opportunities to attack in the last three minutes but chose to slow it down and take seconds off the clock. This strategy needs to be rethought in the modern NBA. It didn’t really keep the Raps from getting their possessions but it forced us into bad late clock shots.
The dynamics of the NBA trade market need a reset. If TOR wants Obi and a pick for OG, that might be a win. If they want our next five drafts they can give us Fred, Pascal, and OG.
Agreed on Brunson. The guy’s just a baller that knows how to play the game and happens to play PG. I’m old school with my PG love, but I have come to accept the fact that you no longer have to have a PG who will get you 8-12 assists per game. If he can score effectively and efficiently while being the brain of the operation, it is just fine to have a PG that averages 20 ppg and 6 assist per. He controls the game and galvanizes his troops like the greats did, just in a different way. I’ll take it. Some high assist number just aren’t very meaningful- see Westbrook and Marbury for example
Nice change, WaylonCash has a music ring to it 😉 , i like it.
@Raven
our end-of-game collapses are always the same and to me (no surprise here) that’s on the coach: offense breaks in a series of isos, it can be a JB’s no-pass possession or a dump to Randle for his jab-step Melo imitation, but the ball and players movement goes from its already low peak to zero (and the few times a player cuts he’s blatantly ignored).
Yesterday in the last 3 minutes the Knicks had 7 possessions: JB 4, Randle 2, IQ one (a missed 3). The Raptors cut the lead from -13 to -2 before JB 3-points-play.
Against the Spurs, same span, 6 possessions (not counting Fournier’s on the last in-bounds): JB 3 (luckily with points in everyone) Randle 3 (0-2 FG, 1 TO).
JB’s a leader and has a knack for winning (but he missed huge shots against POR and MEM plus the FTs against Chicago), Randle as we know not so much, and I’m not sure we can save our skin in this kind of situations against “good” teams.
To me we must use our other players, our “safety valves”, better even if that means using few seconds less on the clock (h/t to @Danvt).
Another conversation that probably needs to be had is- it’s time to just give Quickley the backups PG job, and move off of either Rose or Deuce. I’m fine with either one as the 3rd PG, but in addition to Fournier’s shooting, we need a bigger guard to play next to Quickley on the 2nd unit. I dunno..someone like a Josh Richardson who can play defense and shoot it some. Somehow lol. I just want a bench unit of Sims/Obi/Quickley/Fournier/another guard that plays defense.
Thoughts?
It’s really a shame we can’t risk putting Alec Burks back in Thibs’ hands, because he’d be a perfect fit for that role… 😉
I’m fine with keeping Deuce in there as a SG. He needs to hit his 3s, it’s a skill he’s shown at other levels. Hopefully last night was the prelude.
Deuce’s defense is a thing. It is better than IQ’s, imho. If he can make some 3’s like he did last night, taking him out of the rotation is definitely detrimental. Even when he misses, so long as it’s one or two shots, he is still an effective player just on defense and ball movement alone. I think he stays in the rotation, and should.
I don’t think our team is built for success in the playoffs, but it’s not a finished product. I can live with another first round exit. For now. In other words, don’t mess with the juju.
He’s 22, Donnie. Minutes provide sample but a man needs days and years to mature.
I have some faith in RJ that when he finally gets 4 or 5 vets on his team who are clearly better than him and whip this maple mamba shit out of his head, he will be come a very useful player.
I would be very wary of trading RJ at all, and I definitely wouldn’t do it for OG.
If the Knicks can somehow pull it out against Milwaukee, their pythagorean record will be a 50 win pace. Invisible henchman, no banners for 50-win pythagorean record paces at the halfway point, etc. but still not something I saw coming.
This is pure hindsight since no one was calling for it at the time, but man, where might we be if we had dumped Reddish’s salary to sign Brunson instead of Burks’ and just didn’t sign Hart?
It *feels* like our crunch time offense underperforms but the numbers don’t really back it up, at least relative to the rest of the league: https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/clutch-traditional?dir=A&sort=PTS
Seems like there are a disproportionate number of late blown leads this year in general, so we can, uh, take some solace in that I guess.
Lineups have been a dream for the “play the kids” crowd. I like IQ, Grimes, Brunson, Robinson, Randle combo better than RJ starting. They can get away with it because Grimes is pretty stout on SFs as a defender. Barnes was not able to abuse him. Deuce also jolts us on defense. Grimes and Deuce have been the key to 12-5. Really like the Hartenstein / Sims pairing and we saw a Mitch / Sims pairing. Sims with a perfect screen to free Grimes for a three. Good team. RJ and Obi make us better but need to adjust when they get back. Thibs needs to coach endgame better.
I think about this team with Burkes off the bench way more than is healthy LOL. He would be EXACTLY what we would need right now to be a 50 win second round team.
Burks would be a great fit in RJ’s spot
I like Burks but am glad he’s gone. One less Thibs Thibsing thing to worry about.
And I’m less down on Hart than many here. I think some of his value lies in intangibles. And that floater makes him a target a few feet away from the basket, opening up driving lanes.
But I did like both Walker Kessler and Jalen Duren.
The key point of last nights game was the start of the 4th quarter. We’re clinging to a 3 point lead and our lineup is IQ, Deuce, Hart, Mitch and Fournier. And we proceed to go on an 8-0 run and are now up 11.
The Raptors never really recovered (late run notwithstanding) and a lot of that spurt was led by IQ. I thought he was awesome last night.
This team’s sweet spot is in 1 to 2 years, so I think we should continue taking RJ’s lumps. If you replaced him OG or Burks, sure we’d be better but what would the difference really be?
Obi, on the other hand, is just blocked. And I don’t think IQ has much more room to grow, for reasons djphan has explained very well. They’re the two I would be looking to package.
IQ isn’t going anywhere.
Things I didn’t realize:
* Randle is our only rotation player last night picked before 20th
* Over half our rotation players were picked in the 2nd rd & played about 47% of our total minutes
* Raptors only had Thad & Barnes picked before 20th
* Raptors had 45% of their minutes from 2nd rd picks/UDFAs
Hartenstein is shooting 56% from 0-3ft this season. He’s at 67.8% for his career, which was 71% prior to this year.
He’s shooting 58.6% from 3-10ft. That’s a high number but not much higher than his 51.2% career average.
And 53.8% from 10-16ft, and 51.5% on his career.
Hartenstein is literally shooting better in the 3-10ft range than at the basket. He’s nearly shooting better in the 10-16ft range than at the basket.
Prior to this season Hartenstein was assisted on 77% of his 2fgs. This season 57.3%.
Not sure what to make of this.
***Minutes provide sample but a man needs days and years to mature.***
That’s very Ward Cleaver of you to say, but is there any real NBA veracity to it? I’m curious what the actual data is on calendar age vs experience age. Has there been a study on it? From my experience of watching the league for 35 years and reading this blog for 15 years, my feeling is that minutes played on a court is a much more important indicator of development potential than trips around the sun are. We’ve had A LOT of teenagers come through the league now and the guys that are going to be good tend to show that early on.
if i was gonna put time in to expressing how i felt about the knicks at the moment – this is pretty much exactly it – thanks for posting this one poindexter:
We’re talking about two separate things, Donnie. I’m going to put maturity level to the side for a second and just tackle the age thing, because there has been actual studies on that. Kevin Pelton did them, and he concluded that not all NBA minutes are equal. In addition, you have to account for selection bias in the teenagers you’re referring to, because it tends to be the best players in the world who can play in the NBA as a teenager.
There are a couple players on our very team that I think have been impacted more by calendar age than minutes played: Randle and Mitch.
almost at the end of the third season of Atlanta…i’ll take another break when i’m done…save the fourth season for another time…
gonna go with an al recommendation (i think it was in his best shows of 2022 thing) – gonna check out Barry…
oh, not sure i mentioned it – but, did watch the season finale of She-Hulk…
i’m having a hard time finding words for it…some of it works for me, some of it does not…
loved the Guardians of the Galaxy christmas show…still got Andor to go through…starting to get a little curious on Willow, i’ll check the reviews…
i like how johnnie bryant looks more engaged on the timeouts and on the sideline this season…
dude just screams youth and vitality…been an assistant head coach since 2014…give him his shot already…
although, with brunson, grimes, randle and mitch playing well – i just don’t envision thibs getting fired anytime soon…
danvt made a good end of game coaching observation:
i couldn’t tell if it was thibs or brunson initiating that four corners play style…
“once the foulbaiting rules took effect they got hit relatively hard to no one’s surprise.. but without getting to the line as much some of their weaknesses got exposed… they’re great shooters but they torpedo their own efficiency by jacking up ill advised shots…
some of this stuff doesn’t get talked about enough .. but i think most ppl realize IQ’s upside is relatively capped… yes he’s doing some nice things so it’s not a total lost cause…. but if he’s not getting to the line as he once did and he’s not doing a curry pullup from anywhere shooting spree… then his paths to improvement are pretty much shutoff.. and you can see that with his usage and percentages declining despite getting the keys to the second unit…”
Devont’e now only takes 3s. He has taken an increasing percentage of his shots from 3 every season in the NBA, IQ has taken fewer.
If Quickley gets better at making 3s he will be a better player. That’s a very easy path for improvement. If he stops taking some of his dumber shots he’ll be better. That’s one of those that seems to sound easier than it really is for some guys, but it is another path for improvement.
“Not sure what to make of this.”
One possible hypothesis, mentioned before related to iHart’s struggles, is that the achilles is bothering him more than he’s saying. Can’t jump or move around quickly, but he can throw up floaters and jumpers okay from his normal flat-footed form. Could also explain why he’s tapping out rebounds instead of snaring them, and why he had a few very funny Bargnani’s just last night.
Re Johnnie Bryant, Thibs needs to lock him in a room until he comes up with five strong plays at the end of games, including inbounding. Not just because they need them desperately and I need them to stop giving me heart attacks, but because in the playoffs the whole game is going to look like those last three minutes. Which just smells of the Atlanta meltdown right now.
Top 10 on both sides of the ball is very impressive for this still very young team. Handling end of quarter and end of game situations is the next step in this team’s development. Two for one at the end of quarters is not worth it, if all you get is two bad shots. I mentioned 1-4 pick and roll as the best option for this team in clutch time yesterday. 1-4 as in Brunson-Randle with Brunson as the ball handler. That gets our two best players in the action and should result in a good look one of them or a good look for someone else if defenses collapse. There are many ways to vary this. I don’t think it’s antiquated at all. That probably means taking Mitch out for either Obi or Hart, which would give us another shooter.
I was going to complain about Thibs playing guys too much being a cause of our late game struggles but surprisingly Randle is only 27th in the league in MPG
duplicate
You mean Jalen or Rick? 😀
I just looked at BB reference. Hart is shooting almost 37% on corner 3’s this year. Subbing him for Mitch on offense in end of game situation makes a lot of sense. He’s also a decent free throw shooter for a big.
***he concluded that not all NBA minutes are equal. In addition, you have to account for selection bias in the teenagers you’re referring to, because it tends to be the best players in the world who can play in the NBA as a teenager.***
Not all NBA minutes are equal, but “garbage time” only amounts for maybe 100 minutes a year. Of the 8000 minutes Barrett has played, the sample is true: it’s against the best players in the world like all other 8000 minute samples one can put together. So I don’t really understand the Pelton argument as paraphrased above.
I don’t have the access to figure it out myself, but for someone who does, are there many players who made their 1st significant “leap” in productivity AFTER playing 8000 minutes of NBA basketball? If the answer is yes, then, sure, maybe RJ will become better than what OG Anonuby is now. But if the answer is no, it seems prudent to divorce yourself from a player who would need to buck dozens of years of historical precedent just to be particularly valuable to a winning team.
@geo I’ve never seen Atlanta. Where are you streaming that?
An interesting thing is to look at OG when he was 22 compared to 22 year old RJ and 25 year old OG compared to 22 year old RJ. OG is obviously a better defender, but on offense OG at 25 is heading towards 22 year old RJ. He’s started shooting much more than he did when he was 22 but he’s not particularly good at it.
I just finished reading Macri’s latest newsletter, here are a couple of snippets about the “feelings” some of us expressed today…
“The Knicks have a minus-3.3 net rating in 83 “clutch” minutes this season – not great but also not in the bottom-10 league wide.”
“If anything, one number should stand out: a 37.3 assist percentage in the last five minutes of close games, which is comfortably last in the NBA.”
The jaw-dropping thing about Barrett is that he vacillates between being one of the very worst professional basketball players in the league, and periodically showing out as one of the more capable.
Unlike Obi who’s shown brief flashes and that one handful of games at the end of last year (which I will always treasure like an incredibly short-lived Obisanity moment), RJ has been fairly unstoppable for significant stretches. It just doesn’t last.
Because of that I think he’s still got a high ceiling. OG may not be peanuts and floss, but it feels like he is what he is — decent but run-of-the-mill offense, strong defense starter on many (but not all) teams. Barrett’s a real enigma, but I do think it’s foolhardy to write him off at this point.
And to be clear, there’s very little about Barrett’s game or demeanor that I find appealing (except when he goes off for 30+). So I write this as not-a-fan, at least at this point.
It’s possible that he just is what he is now, but the wild variance does suggest an alternative. Wracking my brain but not coming up with another player who just stayed wildly variable…
howdy g-man…it’s on Hulu…it’s quality stuff…
I heard it was good, and it still exceeded my expectations…
each episode is only around thirty minutes, so it’s easy to blow through the whole series pretty fast…
ha raven, you and E gotta move off julius for a bit huh 😛
Idk… if this team could find a clutch isolation scorer to put out there for the ends of games, I think we could win a lot more often with this group.
Supposedly, Bojan Bogdanovic is the best iso scorer in the league this year (which is maybe why so many teams want to trade for him). In 2nd place is Mr. Markaten, and DeRozan is in 4th place.
It may sound crazy to trade a first for either Bojan or DeRozan, but I think either of those guys would go a long way towards us winning games, at least for a few years before they fall off a cliff.
People are too down on Hart. A good portion of the change in his stats is the result of the change in his role. I say this all the time, but the idea is NOT to maximize some player’s INDIVIDUAL boxscore stats. It’s to maximize the TEAM. He’s been a bit disappointing from 3 “so far” given he was brought here to give the team a different look at the C position and create better spacing in some lineups. The defense is also “meh”. But overall he’s doing exactly what we want from him as the backup. He’s rebounding, creating some space, and even creating for himself more. The boxscore stats are mostly meaningless.
If there are numbers showing that the Knicks stop passing at the end of games I agree with them.
I have made my feelings clear about RJ. No player who didn’t make a dunk contest has had a later.breakout.
It could happen. It could totally still happen. But it seems very unlikely
even you fanatics are sleeping on how much quick has improved on defense. he isn’t a great defender in some of the normal ways guards tend to be great defenders, but he’s become an outlier-good help defender for his position. watch him watch the game when the ball’s away from him. he shades over and slows down the off ball play without getting hurt on maybe a larger percentage of plays than any guard in the league. here are his drapm’s for his first three years, out of 500-600 ranked players per year:
20-21: 90th
21-22: 17th
22-23: 1st
no, i do not think iq is the best defender in the nba, but he is a difference maker. if he shoots he’s a universe away from devonte graham.
Garbage time has nothing to do with it, DW. 7,000 minutes played from age 19-22 are not the same 7,000 minutes played from age 23 to 26.
Hi Geo, Randle’s been sort of great of late. He still makes the dumb-dumb play or two a game, but if he keeps it to two a game and continues being a monster on offense and at least tries a bit on defense, he becomes our loveably dense monster.
It’s really important that nobody passes to him at the end of any quarter, however — unless he’s wide open with a second or two left, as I expect him to can those these days.
Hart sucks. He can’t shoot. If he gets an assist it’s a miracle. He makes bonehead decisions. His defense is suspect and he gets pushed around. Other than that, he’s a keeper.
If he’s really hurt then I will take all of this back.
Not many, but you’re asking the wrong question. Most players have historically been 26 or 27 years old by the time they played 8,000 minutes.
You have to change “NBA basketball” to “organized basketball” to account for the fact 19, 20, and 21 year olds historically got all their minutes in the NCAA.
Once you adjust for age, the question becomes “have there ever been any basketball players who got better after their rookie year?” And clearly the answer is yes.
Strat, everyone knows the point of basketball is not to maximize the box score statistics of Isaiah Hartenstein.
The problem is the weight of the evidence suggests Isaiah Hartenstein’s bad box score statistics are in fact having a detrimental effect on the TEAM.
We are 4.4 PTS/100 worse when he’s on the court, which is only notable because prior to this season he’s literally always been a net positive. He’s been a huge drain on our offense in particular, worsening it by 3.7 PTS/100.
He absolutely has some skills that Mitch does not, but we don’t really let him use them, so we’re much better off with Mitch on both ends because Mitch is much better at Mitch things than Hart is at Mitch things. Whatever benefits his added spacing brings ain’t showing up, or are too marginal to outweigh the negatives.
It’s hard to think we wouldn’t be better off just playing Sims if we’re looking for a low usage rebounding type and repurposing Hart’s money somewhere else.
Arbitrary sample for sure but over his last 10 games IQ is averaging 18-4-5 with a .592 TS%. He’s only shooting 38% from 3 during that time so it’s not like he’s just on a heater. Everything suggests his defense is a total game changer for us. Like, genuine outlier defensive impact.
That’s a player 30 teams would kill for, and we should value him as such.
Wat kind of contract will IQ get? So curious about that
I would guess IQ gets somewhere between MLE and Tyus Jones money on his next deal. $12 to $15 million per year.
I’ve got a good one for you, Donnie.
Brandon Ingram played over 6,000 minutes of negative BPM basketball in his age 19, 20, 21 seasons before making a massive leap.
In fact, he was the subject of a Kevin Pelton mailbag that I was able to find (thanks, Google) (emphasis in bold is mine).
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22091087/kevin-pelton-weekly-mailbag-including-yearly-player-development
Pt where can you find updated RAPM? I’m reading Seth Partnow’s The Midrange Theory and it has me increasingly intrigued by RAPM.
Highly recommend the book to all, it’s like catnip to Knickerbloggers.
the version of rapm i was quoting above is ryan davis’ currently public site here. has a few other trinkets as well
http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=1683034232
another public source of some older seasons is here
https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/
Ingram made the leap in his fourth year. He’s been a 2 bpm player since then. Am I getting that right?
I’d be delighted if RJ were a 2 bpm player. But its not that inspirational.
Yes. I studied this years ago. Per minute stats for teenagers aren’t as valid as ones accrued in latter ages. I don’t remember the exact cut-off for age, but I do recall that shooting stats are more likely to improve from teenager years than other per-minute stats. Can’t find the study though…
If I’m reading that right, DRAPM doesn’t much like Mr. Brunson…
***Garbage time has nothing to do with it, DW. 7,000 minutes played from age 19-22 are not the same 7,000 minutes played from age 23 to 26.***
I feel that it is the same. It is against the same competition. How are those minutes categorically different?
It is true that most players take time to grow when they enter the league. Even many of the all-time great players struggled early on. But most players that turned out to be the least bit memorable to the league showed quantifiable improvement from minutes 2000-8000, regardless of their age.
In all the studies I’ve done, there is no statistical difference between garbage minutes and non-garbage minutes. None. Players that get scant playing time (few minutes per game) perform the same per-minute statistically when their playing time increases. Actually the one thing I did find is that per-minute fouls decreases, so oddly they got better.
I did not (intentionally) insinuate there is a difference between garbage minutes and non garbage minutes.
Because they’re played by a physically and emotionally immature teenager.
Not all NBA minutes are equal, but “garbage time” …
I didn’t say garbage time resulted in skewed stats. I was looking for ways in which “not all minutes are equal” could be applied within the context of the argument.
NBA minutes are all equal once you get to an 8000 minute sample. Pelton is talking about 500 mins of teenage minutes not being the same as 500 mins of older rookies. But I’m talking about 8000 minutes of large sample size being more indicative of a player’s likelihood to break out than their amount of elapsed time since their birth is.
Ingram is a good exhibit to present. DeRozan is too. But my general premise is that if after 8000 minutes you are banking on someone being an exception to a rule, you are probably going to be disappointed.
Respectfully disagree with respect to teenagers. Yes 8000 minutes is normally enough data to get a very good understanding of a player’s development. That I agree with. However in the data I studied, very young players were the exception to the rule. I don’t remember the cutoff, but 6000 of those are ages 19-21.
Unfortunately I don’t have an active database I can fire up. But if I just eyeball a few players that had a a ton of minutes before 22. KG
TS% from 19-22: 52.1
TS% from 23-30: 55.1
Jayson Tatum’s TS% jumps up like 20-30 points after his age 22 season. Carmelo’s goes up like 20% as well.
It doesn’t mean I think RJ will breakout. And I’m not saying he’s in the class of those players. I’m just trying to convey what the data I analyzed said. Last I checked, on average teenagers were more likely to improve in efficiency than other players.
I really just wanted them to let Sims be Mitch’s backup and use Hart’s money elsewhere.