Knicks Morning News (2022.12.23)

“I mean, this one isn’t even complicated. Player 1 shoots way better from the elbow than the corner. How would his efficiency then be maximized by standing in the corner?”

Ah but alas, Cam Reddish is not “Player 1.” He is Cam Reddish.

This means there is a wealth of data on what types of shots, which areas of the floor, etc. facilitate his efficiency, or more commonly his lack thereof.

Using that data, i.e. the real data that actual existing basketball player Cam Reddish has compiled over four years, what is the case that Cam Reddish’s efficiency would *improve* if given more shots?

I’m seeing someone with consistently dreadful statistics from the midrange, so the idea that getting him started from the elbow is the key to unlocking his success seems…far-fetched.

I’ve pretty much stopped using WS entirely because it seems to make little-to-no distinctions based on usage, which leaves you with Mitchell Robinson and Steph Curry having offensive win shares in the same neighborhood. That obviously defies common sense, but also contradicts tons of other more rigorous empirical measures of value.

BPM seems to do a much, much better job of accounting for offensive burdens. The top 20 are all very high usage players. You have to go all the way down to the 23rd ranked player to get to a low-usage guy, and his BPM is primarily made up of his DBPM. His name is Mitchell Robinson.

All this to say I am very accepting of the idea that not all efficiency is created equal and offensive burden matters, but I am skeptical of the idea that even guys with *poor* efficiency aren’t detrimental if their usage is high enough.

It’s true that the makeup of our lineup basically calls for a high-usage wing because the other 4 positions would be overburdened with shots if we replaced RJ with someone in the average usage range. However, I still think the other 4 positions could beat a 91 TS+ with the extra shots they’d hypothetically get, largely because that’s a very easy number to beat.

If RJ can get to the ~100 TS+ range, which is where he’s been for the past 13 games or so, he’ll have a much stronger case that BPM is slighting him. Then again, if he can do that over the course of a full season I think BPM will come close to accurately reflecting the value it would bring.

4. Well, hello, Quentin Grimes!
The Knicks found themselves almost the instant Tom Thibodeau inserted Grimes into the starting lineup, benched Derrick Rose and Evan Fournier, and slotted Miles McBride into reserve units. Everyone in New York’s nine-man rotation is an average defender at worst (at least when dialed in). Immanuel Quickley is thriving as something of a sixth starter. RJ Barrett eats as the lone starter on bench units.

The Knicks’ revamped starting five is plus-75 in 255 minutes — a complete flip-flop after two years of rollicking bench groups carrying punchless starting lineups. Grimes’s 3-and-D skill set meshes around three ball-dominant starters in Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, and Barrett.

Brunson is a stabilizer who fits New York’s smash-mouth style. Having a competent point guard allows you to swap out ball handling (i.e. Fournier and Rose) for defense and spot-up shooting.

Grimes has hit 38.6% on 3s, but he’s more than a stand-still shooter. He can pump-and-go when defenders run him off the arc, and make the next play. He’s cutting and screening away from the ball, relocating for open 3s with defenses in scramble mode — injecting some needed unpredictability into New York’s thudding offense:

Grimes is as advertised on defense. In the past week alone, New York has used him on Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Tyrese Haliburton. The Knicks are not afraid to switch him onto bigger players. (Randle seems to enjoy switching lately.)

Grimes is smart and stout, with impeccable balance.

He diagnoses that set early. Grimes trails Haliburton around one screen, and then flies out to Buddy Hield on an impromptu switch — staying down and attached on multiple fakes before inhaling Hield’s triple. (The Knicks on offense use Grimes as the back-screener — Hield’s role — in this same action.)

Time will tell whether New York’s (divided) brain trust was right to hold off on trading Grimes (and everything else) for Donovan Mitchell. I understood it at the time; New York did not have a ready-made contender around Mitchell as the Cleveland Cavaliers did. The Knicks’ path after a theoretical Mitchell trade was murky.

Their path to real contention now is murky. They remain a middle-of-the-road team. They’ll need a tentpole star, either via free agency or trade. Extending Quickley and Obi Toppin could shut off their future cap space.

But keep this up, and that’s two solid seasons in three years. Small victories lead to bigger ones.

5. The zig-zaggy creativity of Jalen Brunson
Brunson is averaging 21 points and 6 dimes on solid shooting — living up to his new contract. Few ball handlers combine Brunson’s fire-hydrant physicality with so much creativity. He has a deep bag of moves and fakes, and he strings them together in sequences — sometimes very long ones — that make sense to only him.

Like, what even is this:

That is 11 seconds of continuous, circular dribbling that somehow leads to a wide-open 3. Brunson stabs at defenders, fades back, hits them with hesitations and half-spins (he might be the reigning king of the Smitty fake spin) until something opens. Brunson is not super quick, but he’s really hard to grasp.

Look at him zig-zag through a zone defense!

Brunson might start possessions with an improvised guard-guard screen aimed at drawing a smaller defender he can overpower. The Knicks have scored 1.17 points per possession out of Brunson isolations — 14th among 103 ball handlers who have run at least 50 such plays, per Second Spectrum. Brunson going one-on-one more means Randle is doing it less — and as a result, with greater efficiency.

Brunson can screen for Randle and Barrett in inverted pick-and-rolls too. Switch, and the Knicks choose between mismatches. Help and recover, and someone pops open. New York has scored an astounding 1.33 points per possession trips featuring a Brunson ball screen — sixth among 249 players who have set at least 50, per Second Spectrum.

New York’s offense isn’t pretty. It’s still a blunt force weapon. But Brunson gives the Knicks more ways to aim that force in more directions. It’s brutality with variety, and it’s working.