NY Post: Knicks dealing with NBA’s coronavirus ‘quarantine’

Latest news here in Tennessee is 29 cases, just 1 in Knoxville so far. The Nashville area looks to be getting hit. No deaths, yet. I see that NYC apparently just had its first death.

All my best for all of you, esp. those of you like Jowles and Farfa on the “front lines” right now.

That’s borderline criminal.

Nothing borderline about it, if an employer forces an employee to come in sick at a time like this they are putting people’s life in danger. I would consider not going to the office if this was me.

I hope you guys are better soon, Jowles.

Bob, no one could have known on January 22 that this was likely to spread?

Here’s an article from January 23. In the context of COVID spreading in Wuhan, it explains that a simulation a few months earlier from Johns Hopkins had estimated that a coronavirus pandemic could lead to 65M deaths worldwide.

On January 25, a friend of mine was forwarded an email written by a flu epidemiologist/computational biologist who works in an academic center in Seattle. This expert said that COVID would likely be a pandemic and projected that there would be 2 to 20 million deaths by the end of the year.

You know who has access to even better sources of information than Business Insider and forwarded emails? The President of the United States.

You’re trying to excuse this by saying that “you can only make predictions with the data you have at hand and history to go by.” In basketball terms, your argument is the equivalent of saying that no one could have predicted that the Lakers would be better than the Knicks this year since both teams were 0-1 on October 23.

Spreading exponentially is what highly communicable diseases do. Experts saw this coming based on the data at hand and history to go by. The fact that President Trump didn’t is solely because he refused to listen to experts.

anyone got a link to this “test”…

I heard there were different variations in the world…

I’m curious how it might work, and how does it differ from other tests…

so I guess one thing to check with yourself is your temperature?

“Thanks all — this may very well be a cold/flu and not COVID-19. We don’t know!”

Jowles…. I don’t give a fiddler’s fuck about what my boss wants… if I have a cough or a fever I’m not going into work. Period! The boss can fire her and that would suck…. but it won’t kill anyone. Going into work with the real possibility of being ill WILL kill Innocent people if she is positive.

If they fire her for following CDC guidance I cannot believe there isn’t relief coming from the EEOC or some other legal remedy in the pipeline.

And for sure tape the conversation where her boss tries to get her to come into work when she tells him/her she is coughing with a fever. And document it on your cell visually.

Then (and I am serious) call Tucker Carlson with the evidence and he will play it and fuck that company royally.

Losing a job sucks but potentially putting hundreds of innocent people at risk is immoral. As well as yourself.

Can Tucker Carlson help us get tested?

“Can Tucker Carlson help us get tested?”

Probably not but at least for the time being when you sue for wrongful termination it won’t get pitched by the 9th Circuit…..

I assure you, she does not want to be there.

“I don’t understand why you would read the contributors here for 13 years, know they are smart and educated, and then willfully ignore them when you don’t like what they say. (But, then again, there’s a lot I don’t understand about Trump supporters). ”

Yup 13 years! Best sports blog, for me ( other NBA blogs I visit once in a while especially if there are hot issues about the team) But for most part, KB has been a daily ritual. Im a Proud KB addict !!! As I said, I enjoy reading in KB Knicks topics, NBA topics and all non basketball topics – but I ignore the anti Trump tirades! I come here to de-stress and relax! ( I guess the feeling is mutual. But I respect your views ) Cheers! 🙂

“I could watch Mulholland Drive everyday of the shutdown and not get bored.”

Watched Mulholland Drive on Netflix last night with my son . Great work by David Lynch. Last month, we- me and my son – binge watched all the Twin Peak iterations . Loved it, esp my son! Btw, thanks to KB I get to watch some, not all, recommendations here 🙂

I have to say, I didn’t go into full Take This shit Seriously mode until ptmilo started sounding the bell here. That is what I love about this blog. I could care less about the Knicks these days, but I’ve come to know and respect the regular contributors here so much that when somebody like pt, who is always so on point, says something, I listen.

Just found out a friend of mine in Spain has it. She’s pregnant and it hasn’t been too bad for her but she spent last weekend with her parents who are elderly and quite infirm. She is freaking out, has no idea how she got it.

And my work colleague’s friend’s 16 year old daughter has it. Again, her symptoms are not serious but how the hell did she get it? They live on the UUWS.

I really miss watching Julius dribbling into traffic from the perimeter and losing the ball.

And Mitch dunking

jesus owen

i just want to be clear that my last sentence above was not in the slightest meant as any sort of half assed shaming of a likely terrified sick person being pressured to go to work during the sudden onset of your bog standard global pandemic. it was purely advice i would try to give to myself under the circumstances, nothing more.

The words I would use to describe her in everyday life: sober, objective, articulate, discerning, judicial. Hell, she specifically chose math as a major because it required no bullshit, no negotiation and no grey area whatsoever. This is how I know it’s bad for her — she knows there is no moral grey area here but she is caught between the rock et al.

I want her to stay home and we’re going to have a talk tomorrow about how best to handle this. LJ should be home and we both know it. We just don’t know how to do it without putting her into jeopardy while we’re on the cusp of a recession or worse. She can handle a couple weeks of unpaid time off, but six months of un- or underemployment would not be sustainable. The situation is fucked. We need testing, yesterday.

So most assuredly, no offense taken. Thanks for not telling her to call Tucker Carlson, though. Appreciate you for that.

Well in Italy 7k people have been reported for disobeying the shutdown. It’s a world full of Dolans

Farfa:
Well in Italy 7k people have been reported for disobeying the shutdown. It’s a world full of Dolans

I know man.
They say:
Una faccia una razza
about Greeks and Italians.
We re exactly the same in stupidity. We just happened to be luckier on this one…

stay hydrated jowles

Farfa:
Well in Italy 7k people have been reported for disobeying the shutdown. It’s a world full of Dolans

2+ weeks ago the Greek government cancelled the traditional carnival of Patra (the most famous/bigger in Greece) as a precautionary meter for COVID-19.
On March the 1st 8k gathered in Patra to celebrate/parade for the carnival disobeying the government’s cancellation….
Una faccia…

“Not sure if it’s streaming anywhere, but The Tree of Life is a great watch if you’re okay with vague narratives. Watch in 4K if possible.”

I like Malick a lot. But I wouldn’t recommend him to anybody that I didn’t know the cinematic tastes of very well. Unlike Lynch, whose weirdness has a kitschy pop-element to it, Malick requires a lot of letting go. That said, TheNew World was totally hypnotic to me. I love his work.

Since everyone is going to be doing a lot of streaming over the next few weeks (and the fact that I’d rather talk about films than the virus if just for distractions sake) I’d recommend Days of Heaven or Badlands to Someone who hasn’t seen any Malick. Both have enough plot and dialogue to satisfy the uninitiated while still having all of the visual beauty of his later work. I still think those are his two best films- if you could excise the Sean Penn moments from Tree of Life it’d probably top them but those first two are both stone cold classics.

Ironically I was going to see A Hidden Life tonight (Malick’s latest) which is playing nearby but decided I really didn’t want to spend three hours in a theater right now. Instead I think I’ll watch Badlands tonight as part of a mini- Warren Oates festival along with Two Lane Blacktop and either Cockfighter or Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Garcia.

The good news is that today, I started sneezing like a madman, so it appears less likely to be COVID-19. Still quarantining the hell out of myself, but those sneezes are a gift from heaven.

Best of luck to you and LJ, Jowles. I’m sorry any one has to make that choice.

My friend now has it. He’s 35 and fit, and is in good spirits. Just mentioning it bc the process in Manhattan is running pretty well, according to his experience. He went to a city MD, passed the screening, got sent to Mt Sinai, took the test. He was told to wait 3-5 days. Said the whole process took a couple of hours and every place he went to seemed to be operating normally.

Hopefully that experience becomes more common.

^ edit: he presumes he has it. Hasnt gotten test back. Only mentioned it for those in NY who are avoiding the doctor bc they think it’s a shit show.

Knew Your Nicks:
Lately i started listening intensively to film scores.
Any good recommendations ?

Some of my faves:

Vertigo – Bernard Herrmann
Koyaanisqatsi – Phillip Glass
Good Time – Dan Lopatin
Solaris – Edward Artemiev
Anatomy Of A Murder – Duke Ellington
Cul De Sac – Krzysztof Komeda

Man, they’re really hanging you guys out there. Very disappointing.

The simple calculus is this…. you can’t help anyone if you are dead. Use the Issac Newton example and isolate yourself and your family group from everyone else if humanly possible. There is plenty of time to make up lost money when things get better. Biology is biology and it doesn’t care. Respect it.

Dmitri Shostakovich scored a 1955 movie called The Gadfly which has the greatest film score of all time. It’s some of the best music ever composed, by anyone, from any era. (He wrote it shortly after the death of Stalin, who’s regime tormented he and his fellow artists to no end, which likely contributes to its sublimity.)

Max Richter is a more modern composer who works largely in film, television, and multimedia. He did the music for The Leftovers, and his On The Nature of Daylight is featured in the opening segment of The Arrival, which is one of the most powerful openings of a movie that I’ve ever seen.

@Z-Man and @ JK47
My wife runs an NYC charter school whose charter was granted by the City and is thus controlled by Deblasio ( cf. Success Academy with a state charter that has been able to close).
She spent all day yesterday negotiating with the union that wants schools closed ( and are pressuring DeB to do so) and was able to make Tuesday and Wednesday Superintendent’s days with no students. I am negotiating with her to work from home tomorrow. My estimate is attendance is below 50% across the City tomorrow. I understand the conundrum surrounding closing the schools( I recently retired from DoE), but having scores of friends still teaching, I hope the DoE schools are closed and a different way to provide food and child care to essential NYC workers whose kids go to public schools is arrived at.

Thanks for the insights Bo. There are lots of alternatives to a total shutdown. I’m fine with reporting to help see a reasonable plan through. But the current situation is untenable.

” I understand the conundrum surrounding closing the schools( I recently retired from DoE), but having scores of friends still teaching, I hope the DoE schools are closed and a different way to provide food and child care to essential NYC workers whose kids go to public schools is arrived at.”

In Mercer County, NJ (East Windsor Township) they are closing schools as of noon Monday, but leaving the cafeteria open indefinitely (from 8am- noon) for poor kids to get their breakfast and lunch if they care to. I’m not sure that is an optimal solution, but at least there is some compassionate out of the box thinking going on looking for real solutions.

Trump said early on that the virus was another reason why we needed to build the wall. He probably thought you got it from drinking Mexican beer.

In NY, ELA State testing is scheduled for March 25-26. In NYC these tests have huge repercussions. I wonder when we’ll hear more about them.

I understand that shutting down the schools will come with its fair share of repercussions and isn’t a decision you can make lightly, but “social distancing, except for the 1,126,501 kids in NYC public schools who gather 5 times a week for 8 hours” is not a coherent or effective policy.

It seems impossible to me that we’ll make much of any progress flattening the curve while kids, who aren’t exactly known for their commitment to cleanliness and hygiene, are transmitting this thing to older school staff and their families.

Shut them down and leave them partially open for meals and daycare (with the decrease in students allowing for extreme precautions) seems like the obvious move to me, and frankly it was reckless to keep them open for this long. I mean my friend who was a teacher just worked an optional Saturday shift yesterday. That’s insane.

Update from Israel:

1. Some 200 hundred sick (as of yesterday), zero fatalities.

2. Schools and entertainment establishments are on a shutdown, everything else may be shut down later this week.

3. No gatherings of over 10 people.

4. At 1Am last night, after the daily newspaper were already closed for new items, the Minister of Justice announced he’s closing down the courts. As a result the PM’s bribery trial is postponed by two months. He’s been doing everything in his power to avoid trial, and is now using the corona virus.

5. The joint Arab list recommended Gantz, the leader of the largest opposition party, as the next PM. This is the first time the Arab party is doing so. If all other opposition parties also recommend Gantz he’ll have a mandate to put together a government, following the elections 12 days ago.

6. The PM and his party are rumored to try and disallow the parliament from assembling tomorrow, so that there would be no vote on replacing the chairmen, who is from the PM’s party.

7. The right wing zelots are threatening everyone and everything, including personal death threats that go without any response from our police. They are calling all Arabs terrorists and the PM is fully behind these calls. Meanwhile a large percentage of our overworked hospitals staff are Arabs and obviously they are taking care of everyone.

Sorry for publishing a political post dealing with another country, but we’re fighting for our democracy today — in practice and not as an abstract concept — and I know some people here care about these things.

Also spent about an hour texting yesterday with my friends about how hard it is to convince our elderly parents that this is a serious situation and they need to stop going out in public like they normally do.

Nowhere near enough people are taking this seriously. I’m seeing a lot of dangerously dumb comments on my social media feed. It’s turning into a red vs blue thing for some people and it’s not that. People need to take this shit seriously and do the social distancing and stop pretending this is all overblown and some sort of plot that was hatched for political reasons.

Overreacting is better than underreacting.

Bob, that sounds like a decent solution. It’s not such an issue in Montclair – they just closed the schools. Kids at home, schooling is virtual the next few weeks at least. But I flipped out because my daughter went to a K-pop concert Friday night anyway! Her defense was that the tickets cost $200. I said I’d cover the cost of not going to any subsequent concerts. Meanwhile, like DRed, I’m begging my mother to stop going to shows in Florida. Come on.

Ingmarrr, I like hearing that perspective, thanks. I’ve only taken one trip though the Middle East, but I met with people like Rafik Hariri and then-Prince Salman, so it was an enlightening experience….

I would support paying willing teachers additional for coming in. Principals will have excess $$$ (use it or lose it) due to cancellation of various things.

We’re in excellent health. No worries on that front — I’m concerned about the rest of us.

Thanks, rama. This sounds like some visit.

Meanwhile the parliament’s chairman announced that he indeed would not allow a vote to replace him — against the expressed demand of the majority of the parliament members. This means that he would continue to have complete control over which laws are voted on, including a law that the majority wants to pass on prime minister term limits.

The right wing is effectively refusing to step down, or give up any type of control, despite losing the elections.

My AP (10X smarter than me) said it would be like summer school…extra pay for those who want it (if too many want it, DOE, principals and UFT can work that out as they always do.) Or there could be a rotation so that all who want it get paid something. And teachers not interested in coming in would still have to educate other students remotely or do whatever principals assign (e.g. PD) so no one is getting a paid vacation. DOE could provide cheap chromebooks to students who need technology.

PS I’d recommend the per diem sub rate (something like $180 per day) rather than the per session rate (over $50 per hour.)

A couple notes from my vantage point:

It was like memorial day weekend out here in East Hampton. Not for me, mind you. I came here for isolation, not to get wasted at Stephen’s Talkhouse. But the amount of people packed into bars out here blows my mind. And from my Instagram feed, it’s no different than NYC. What’s the point of canceling all these events if dumb motherfuckers are gonna get us quarantined by congregating in bars and clubs til 4am? Put a curfew on these chucklefucks already.

A week ago I saw assclowns on my insta feed in Aspen gleefully crowing “no virus here, stay calm”. Now Aspen is shut down and pretty much everyone who was there the first week of March has CV.

Greek government closed schools for 14 days and the next day all students were packed at the cafeterias!
Then the government shutdown the cafeterias, bars, cinemas, theatres, hair & beauty salons, gyms and other places who could spread easily the virus by overcrowding and….
Yeap ! “The Young at heart(not only the kids) and the Restless and Dumb Motherfuckers” instead of staying home went to the beaches (it was sunny yesterday in Greece) and the ski resorts!
After that government closed also beaches and ski resorts.
The Main COVID-19 problem is now public transportation for those who can’t avoid it in order to go to work and keeping distances/not overcrowding in the mandatory visit of a super market for supplies.

BigBlueAL:
Yeah even though we have no school this week cafeterias will still be open serving breakfast and lunch for kids who want to come in and get food, mostly aimed for the kids who get free lunch who may not be able to get lunch at home.Breakfast is free for all kids every day but not lunch.

Dining in restaurants/pizzerias/fast foods and other places that sell food in Greece was shutdown by the government.
Only take away and delivery are allowed.

Good luck Jowles, we are pulling for you.

Has anyone seen any recommendations on sending out for food?

Some restaurants are delivering. Obviously, contact with the delivery person might be an issue, but assume I got a pizza delivered, washed my hands, and then had dinner. Would that be risky?

Strat
I am not a medical professional, but your risk seems to be connected to the steps the foodservice takes to minimize transmission risk on their end. For example, I noticed that at my favorite local pizzeria the employees were not wearing gloves, taking cash and cards from many consumers and also preparing food. While I do not have the data to analyze the probability of transmitting the virus under these circumstances, it was more than I am willing to take. I even avoid taking elevators whenever I can. The last time I was on one, someone sneezed and while she turned away it wasn’t into her elbow. The two others on the elevator gave her very dirty looks. This is the new normal here in NYC.

Edit: I should add that I am 66 and thus have to be ultra careful.

I’m in a bit of a pickle here.

I’ve been cautious beyond all reason. I’ve only been out of the house 3-4 times in the last 3-4 days for less than 30 minutes each time. Each time was to stockpile some food and each time I washed my hands thoroughly. I wore gloves today. I even wash doorknobs and the money I get in change. I’m in good shape in terms of food etc..

However, I have an 85 year old mother that lives with my special needs brother (Asperger). So taking care of them (they live 30 minutes away by car) is going to get tricky. I have enough surplus to drive there and drop off some of mine when they run low, but trying to convince my brother to say inside is close to impossible. I don’t know what to do.

At the same time I live with my girlfriend who insisted on going to work in Manhattan (a non essential job) all last week via express bus. I don’t know whether to tie her down or change the locks because she wants to go to work again tomorrow. (WE DON’T NEED THE MONEY). She’s a brilliant woman in some stage of denial and I can’t talk any sense into her. I’m besides myself. I may have to physically block the door and not allow her to leave. I’ve tried everything. I was forceful, loving, mathematical etc.. She just won’t accept what’s going on and how there is no upside to going to work and huge downside if she catches the virus.

That’s a bummer about your GF, Strat. I’m in a similar boat with my parents, both of whom have exactly the kind of conditions you don’t want to have right now. They seem to think if they keep washing their hands they’ll be ok. They’re both leaving the house on a daily basis. They’re not really grasping the severity of the situation and I’m thousands of miles away so there’s nothing I can do.

They also live in South Florida, which is going to be a disaster area when this shit hits the fan. So many old people down there.

I’m literally begging her right now. I’m telling her how much I love her and how if she loved me at all she would do this one thing for me. It isn’t an intellectual thing. She’s brilliant. It’s some kind of denial and unwillingness to accept reality. She knows what’s going on in Italy but she starts talking about their old population and other factors that make their situation unique compared to the US.

It may come down to me blocking the door in the morning.

This is not a good situation for someone that has anxiety issues like me.

Thanks for allowing me to vent.

Honestly, I can’t figure out how people can be so reckless about their own dearest’s health.

If I was thinking only about myself, I probably wouldn’t care that much about COVID. I’m youngish, my immune system looks fine, I’ve weathered heavier storms (melanoma anyone?).

But I can’t, for the life of mine, bear the thought that my behaviour could endanger anyone else. It looks like being obese put people at a much higher risk of complications from COVID. I have friends and relatives who are old, obese and/or immunodepressed. If I caught COVID I’d be a 10% probability of a death sentence for them.

How can this not be enough? Life will go on even after this. Let time pass idly while medical superheroes do that Tony Stark bringing the bomb away from Manhattan thing every day, never knowing if they’ll go home safe again until a vaccine is developed.

Strat, sorry for being blunt, but is there no way that your brother can be forcefully sedated? I can’t think of anything else.

Also, I feel you on anxiety issues. The very first thing I bought after the lockdown was a Xanax bottle (I’m dealing with anxiety issues since 2015).

strat that sounds like a near impossible situation. especially wrt to your brother. the risk your girlfriend is imposing on you is unconscionable, despite almost no reward.

Glad to hear it, Strat. Now set up your bunker and ride this thing out.

I’m sacrificing imaginary lambs daily to be able to sit home and have FUN! instead of going to work from as long as i remember myself and you’re risking lives to go to work !!!!?????
What’s going on????
What’s happening with you people!!!!????
;))

Well as expected DeBlasio caved and closed schools until at least 4/20. No one reports tomorrow, then teachers and administrators report the rest of the week to prepare for distance learning. Certain buildings are open for students who need to eat and be cared for. Better late than never.

Stratomatic: Frequently wrong, but never in doubt:
The entire thing was mind boggling. She’s a brilliant woman, I can’t even fathom why she was being stubborn and reckless with our lives. It was some strange form of denial.35 years and I never experienced anything like it with her.

I’m not a psychologist but I’ll try to ‘improvise’ like i were one.
I think fears and habbits blur our consciousness sometimes and make us act strangely and toxically to ourselves and to others ‘around’ us.
Habbits have the tendency to make us feel secure even if they’re not healthy or secure.
Fears also can make us change our priorities and neglect our basic needs in order to avoid facing them(our fears).
If you try to understand which fear or which habbit blurred your gf’s ‘vision’ you may help her ‘see’ better next time and avoid some anxiety.
I also may write bs above but at least I don’t charge anything!

Large events and mass gatherings can contribute to the spread of COVID-19 in the United States via travelers who attend these events and introduce the virus to new communities. Examples of large events and mass gatherings include conferences, festivals, parades, concerts, sporting events, weddings, and other types of assemblies. These events can be planned not only by organizations and communities but also by individuals.

Therefore, CDC, in accordance with its guidance for large events and mass gatherings, recommends that for the next 8 weeks, organizers (whether groups or individuals) cancel or postpone in-person events that consist of 50 people or more throughout the United States.

More here.

As Zach Lowe pointed out, between players, coaches, and trainers, you get to 50 pretty easily before a single fan is allowed in the arena. Woj says this:

CDC recommendation of no events of 50-plus people for next two months comes as a number of NBA owners and executives increasingly believe a best case scenario is a mid-to-late June return to play — with no fans. League’s scouting for possible arena dates all the way thru August.

Like, the movies?

The Honorable Cock Jowles:
Like, the movies?

Film Scores are Music Albums written for movies.

Blade Runner by Vangelis
The Virgin Suicides by Air &
Suspiria by Goblin

Check em out

My best friend is a musical omnivore and he’s gone through pretty much everything. Lately he’s been trying to tell me to check out some early Foghat albums. I’m like, bro, I draw the line at 80’s Japanese New Age.

I knew someone here would know what I’m talking about

(also those are great film scores, I know, ok, I’m just throwing the slightest shade, but not actually)

I’m good friends with Mike Andrews, who did the score for Donnie Darko, which is a masterpiece.

I’ve worked with him on a few projects and he’s kind of like my film scoring mentor. The last thing I did with him was the Garry Shandling documentary that Judd Apatow produced, which I highly recommend.

I wish Excedrin could cure tinnitus

“Thanks for that, DW. Shostakovich is one of my favorite composers but I was unaware of this piece.

I presume you’ve read Testimony? My music professor told me it was probably fiction, but that was 20 years ago. Not sure what they say about it now, or if I care.”

He happened into the worst time to be a Russian intellectual and artist. We’ll probably never know what he really thought, what was double-speak, and what was meant to be subversive or not. All we know is that he survived, while many of his contemporaries did not. (I guess he had a Steve Millsian/Allan Houstonian skill for surviving the worst regimes).

Which is why I think his best work comes after Stalin died, including his second piano concerto, of which he commented before its premiere “it has no redeeming artistic merits”. Was he serious? Was he being ironic? Was he still gunshy after his twenty years of appeasing Stalin? Who cares, right? The piece is near perfect. (Leonard Bernstein performs it while simultaneously conducting the NY Phil in what is the best recording available here https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_0JH1sC2OPQ )

I’m sure the transmission rate is wildly underestimated because there are probably hundreds if not thousands of people who have the virus and don’t even know it which means they are obviously not getting tested for it. At the same time the death rate has got to be much lower than they are saying because those same people mentioned who have the virus and don’t even know it are obviously not passing away or even getting sick enough to need hospital care. It seems like it really is a super low rate of people with the virus who are getting sick enough to need hospital care but it’s still a large enough number that we all need to be careful. To me though it just seems hard to gage what is the number of cases where we say OK we can get back to normal? What if we all go back to normal then the cases of the virus spikes up again and it becomes a never ending cycle?

Imagine the whole world without precautionary measures and quarantines and then project a possible number of infected & dead.
A wildly underestimated one.

history of the knicks on nba tv right now…

What if we all go back to normal then the cases of the virus spikes up again and it becomes a never ending cycle?

During the Spanish flu Denver lifted their social distancing measures too soon. The second spike was worse than the first.

history of the knicks on nba tv right now…

that’s just mean

For chess fans, the Candidates tournament was not cancelled. A lot great chess is going on this week to see who gets a shot at the champion later this year!!!! There will probably be some live streams of that if you search around.

https://www.chessbomb.com/arena/2020-candidates-chess-tournament

>>>I’m sure the transmission rate is wildly underestimated because there are probably hundreds if not thousands of people who have the virus and don’t even know it which means they are obviously not getting tested for it.<<<

That's not the case with the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Everyone was tested and quarantined.

Unfortunately, Brador, I don't think the data on the death rate is particularly useful, as there is a natural selection bias in it.

How likely are the most at risk of our population, i.e. elderly, low income, with preexisting health problems to be present on an expensive cruise ship? Also, everyone on that ship had access to all the services they needed to recover, which is not something an overcrowded health care system can provide.

The death rate can be lower if everyone gets proper medical attention, but we already knew that. The problem is not the virus, it's our capacity to respond to it.

The bad news from the study was it confirmed that 17% of the cruise's population contracted Coronavirus, likely from one person. 52% of the 634 people infected passengers were asymptomatic before testing positive.

Sorry to be a downer, but that report isn't cause for optimism.

>>>Stock market acting like Steve Mills has been announced as the new head of the Fed. Making 08-09 look like the NCAA’s.<<<

I would welcome Steve Mills as Fed Chairman at this point. Powell has been a disaster. His policy has been wrong and moves have been panic inducing.

Yeah, just going for a weak Knicks related joke. Monetary policy has been a disaster for a while, but this was particularly idiotic. Tough time to have no bullets to fire and eminently obvious this would happen.

A lot of people going to be hurt really badly in every corner of America but Trump and the virus have done their bit to reduce wealth inequality.

I wonder what the year’s booking at Doral look like….

The injections of liquidity by the Fed are to ease issues in the bond market, not the stock market. Most likely it was appropriate and just the beginning. I’m not a bond expert, but certain spreads were out of whack because of the lack of liquidity and demand for cash. If the fed is out there buying assets (or doing repos) it’s greasing the wheels.

Strat, respectfully, everything you’re saying is wrong. The Fed flooded the market with liquidity in 2019. That’s why stocks were up 30%.

The fed is panicking.

Any thoughts on whether or not to pull out of the market or hold?

“Putting myself in KB quarantine for a day.”

Ha! Please don’t. I’m just keen to talk about the current market environment with people who aren’t my clients. They need a break from all the communication we’ve had!

>Any thoughts on whether or not to pull out of the market or hold?<

I was in a conservative position (at least for me) coming into this, but it wound up being less conservative than I hoped because some gold mines I own are getting hit almost as hard as businesses that WILL suffer greatly like airlines, restaurants, theme parks etc..

My feeling was that when the next market crisis came from this bubble I would need cash (to live on and to buy bargains in the market) and gold as a hedge against the very large budget deficits and money printing that were sure to follow. Some of the gold mines actually have very good fundamentals. I think I got everything right as far as what was going to happen, except in a panic where people are not thinking, some are being forced to sell to meet redemptions at a fund, and others are getting margin calls, even if fundamentally my holdings make more sense than others they are getting sold anyway. I think ultimately I will be rewarded, but we'll see.

I have't done any buying yet, but I'm not selling anything. I've been though a bunch of these crashes already.

Just make sure you have cash to live on. Beyond that it really depends on your age, life circumstances, risk tolerance, and Xanax prescription.

an interesting article about the spreading, which compares different countries…

>If this is being “spun” badly it’s because it’s bad. His predecessors telegraphed their moves for weeks if not months and never surprised a single person. No one knows what to expect from him and the market now has to price in the possibility of negative rates.<

I think when people are afraid they find the downside of everything and vice versa.

I think negative rates are off the table. He pretty much said as much.

IMO, the next step is a massive fiscal stimulus package from Washington and he's going to help monetize it. We are going to QE la la Land.

>>>I think when people are afraid they find the downside of everything and vice versa.<<<

Sure, but that's not what's happening here. The guy basically just shot a bazooka rocket into the air, and we don't have a lot of rockets.

Just started watching The Wire. So far, so good.

Man, I wish I could watch that show for the first time again. Season 4 is going to do some things to you.

I would like to ask a question for people who are in finance and know the markets and how all that works.

The stock market keeps crashing. I think this is the third of fourth time in the last few weeks where they’ve had to temporarily stop trading for the day.

Why can’t they just close up trading for a few weeks? If the markets keep going down and down because traders don’t know what is going on and are panicking, aren’t they doing more long term damage to the economy and people’s investments, 401K’s, etc….than if they just shut it all down for a few weeks while we get a better picture of the situation?

The injections of liquidity by the Fed are to ease issues in the bond market, not the stock market. Most likely it was appropriate and just the beginning. I’m not a bond expert, but certain spreads were out of whack because of the lack of liquidity and demand for cash. If the fed is out there buying assets (or doing repos) it’s greasing the wheels.

Basically you’re saying the Fed knows something about the bond market that we don’t know and that’s why they did it. I say “something we don’t know” because they haven’t stated anything like that in the past few days. That’s basically what the market is inferring. But if the fed knows something we don’t, they should just say it. Otherwise they are causing panic without giving a good reason. The unknown is usually scarier than reality.

On the lighter side… for those of us who have been deluged with messages like this from our friends:

“Hey, man. Hope you’re doing well in these dire times. My daughter who goes to school with a police officer who is friends with DeBlasio’s son said that his friend in the Army Corps in DC sent him this email:
Hi comrades: my brother who is a surgeon in Italy just had lunch with a WHO lawyer who told him that his youngest son is a top general in the marines just met with a physician from Harvard who just texted him and said that the mayor of New York is about to announce that the president has ordered your mom to suck on deez nuts. Please forward to your network.”

(If you don’t live in NY, messages with rumors of NY’s shutdown legitimized by a random connection have been floating for weeks. That and news links that lead to pictures of that very large man that maybe you know.)

Bron, our store is out of vodka for something equivalent (the storekeep says as a wipe for surfaces, which personally would make me want to lick them, which seems ‘counter’productive…).

If no one mentioned Requiem For A Dream, that film score is incredible. Clint Mansell scored that film and a number of others which are also probably good.

our store is out of vodka for something equivalent (the storekeep says as a wipe for surfaces, which personally would make me want to lick them, which seems ‘counter’productive

Heh, nice. People are wasting the hard liquor. Instead of wiping it and drinking it, they should be inhaling it. To recoup my stock market deficit, I should load a video to youtube showing how simple it is: just pour some Bruichladdich X4 Quadrupled Whiskey over dry ice and inhale the vapor through a straw. Maybe my video would go “viral”.

We can’t agree on whether BPM is a reliable estimator of value, but sure, let’s talk about global fiscal policy during an unprecedented world disaster.

hah, so true….now could we start debating whether inhaling alcohol could “cure” COVID-19? Hey, people here know liquor, we established that from previous threads.

THCJ, you mentioned Tinnitus. I am suffering badly from that. Did you figure out a remedy?

Thanks,

Chris

feeling lucky today…found out last night the kids mom’s water filter pitcher thing was broke…checked walmart, nothing…target though had two left – woo hoo!!!

was able to pick up a little more hand soap and stuff too…

thank god i recently went to a dispensary and a sesh to re-up…just in case anyone was worried – i’m good on weed for a while 🙂

had a chance to catch a bit of the democratic debate last night…it was interesting…it seemed a bit like bernie was playing along and in there for biden to warm up on…

biden himself seemed to be filled with a little more fire and focus than usual…i gotta say though, maybe it’s due to my superficial nature – but, hard for me to have a ton of faith in folks once their skin gets that translucent hue to it…

stopped listening after a while though cuz i was checking out that Shostakovich piece Donnie had linked (thank you): https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_0JH1sC2OPQ …that was some wonderful stuff…

listening to this right now…i have a particular fondness for the lawrence of arabia soundtrack: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_MAK0rYdnQ – it’s all sounds so grand…

i liked pepper’s mention of both purple rain and singles…both were incredible for their time…heck, they both still sound really good…

there are some pretty great star wars soundtracks…maybe a little overly dramatic, but fun nonetheless…

>Basically you’re saying the Fed knows something about the bond market that we don’t know and that’s why they did it. <

I think everyone that follows markets closely knows there have been some issues with bonds and lending lately.

Some of it is out of my league. However, the Fed has been doing Repos (too complex to discuss) since before the coronavirus issue hit because there was some unforeseen spikes in interest rates. Basically the Fed was making money available to banks at the interest rate it has targeted by adding temporary money to the system because banks stopped lending to each other. That was perceived as a negative and hard to explain.

Since this health crisis started everything has been very volatile in bond markets too. The spreads between various government maturities and between government and corporate bonds have widened in ways that suggest everyone wants to be as liquid as possible (very short term safe money). Makes perfect sense. That's what always happens in panics.

I think the Fed wants those markets to function as intended and not in such a panicked way.

Maybe its actions made people more panicked, but I think the big league players already knew this.

IMO, what's going on in stocks now is that prices were very high and the coronavirus pricked the bubble. Now markets are adjusting to the reality that economic activity is falling fast, earnings are going to be way lower than expected, and some companies may need to be bailed out. That makes some companies worth a lot less than people thought just a few weeks ago.

The problem of course is that it ridiculously difficult to know how much anything is worth now because no one knows how and when this is all going to end.

>Tinnitus<

Have you ever had an MRI to take a look at what's going on in there?

Heat up a half can of tomato paste and a generous amount of olive oil over medium heat in a pot.
Quarter a whole white (or red if you’re out) onion and throw it in the pot.
Rinse the lentils thoroughly for 3 – 5 minutes.
Add lentils to the pot.
Add enough water to cover the lentils.
Add some salt and wait for it to simmer (while covered).
I like to add 4 whole grape tomatoes… really gives it some nice acid.
Stir every 15 minutes. You should also try and break apart the onion pieces as it cooks, this adds a lot of flavor. You should probably add salt to taste as you check it.
It should be done after ~45 minutes. When it’s done I hunt the tomatoes and pop them.

Usually serves 6-8 and costs around $4.

When I was poorer than I am now (but perhaps will be soon again), I used to chop up cabbage — only time I’ve ever used cabbage, never understood what it was for, still not sure — cook it with lentil, onions as KBPR suggests, basically stick any leftover veggies lying around, then stir in curry paste toward the end. You can add rice, but then it’s rice and beans, albeit curried. Cheap and big and lasts a long time in the fridge, too.

they just issued a “everything is closed but supermarkets/pharmacies” here in the Bay Area…just went to a few supermarkets…it was sheer madness….just got in the car and drove home…thank god I got that 12 lb brisket this weekend…gonna get that smoked in the backyard and ready to gnaw on for the next week or so….

Btw my local market is pretty stacked. Did some people here not know they could go to places other than trader Joe’s?

It is a mystery. It’s not as if Trader Joe’s is actually cheap, or you know, good. Their in-house stuff is the same quality as Associated or C-Town or whoever else’s in-house stuff. But people mob that joint and Whole Foods and it makes no sense. Local markets by me are fine. Stocked, about as busy as normal afaict.

Lentils give me the shits, which in today’s TP climate seems ill-advised. Stick with your legume of choice.

With lentils you can also add carrots and celery to the onion. My mom adds a little red wine vinegar. She’s Greek so she knows what she is doing and it is a nice touch.

I’m making split pea soup as I type.

For green lentils I do this:

Dry roast 1 cup for a few minutes, then add vegetable broth until fully covered. Cook till the broth is mostly gone then set them aside.

Sauté onion, garlic, ginger, and unseeded Serrano peppers in avocado oil for five minutes, then add a teaspoon of curry paste. Sauté a few more minutes.

Add the lentils, stir, then add 28 oz of diced tomatoes. Add cumin/turmeric/garam masala/any other spices you like and simmer it all for 40-60 mins adding water as needed.

Add tofu, fried egg, or meat if you like. Serve hot.

(I’m going to make Ethiopian food this week if I can score some injera bread down in little Ethiopia before they roll the sidewalks up. Vegan Ethiopian cuisine is almost exclusively lentil based, with the spicy red lentils cooked in berbere spices, Mmm Mmm Mmm)

2020, the year of the lentil? Not a good year for anyone else I fear.

Thanks Bob and all the fellas. Not sure how much longer I can count on Amazon Go.

I have enough psilocybin in my apartment to spend the next two months on an astral plane.

sounds like you got your food covered at least – mushrooms sprinkled over lentils 🙂

swiftandabundant: I

Swift I think this is becoming increasingly likely. I don’t what the point of having a market open now is, nobody has any idea what the world is going to be like in two weeks. Every trade right now is essentially long or short the coronavirus. Nothing else matters. And no one should be buying that trade.

Found some sports.

I watched about a half hour of nfl free agency…it felt good…

saw the g-men picked up a coverage guy…the texans/bill o’brian has made some really odd moves the last few years…

> It’s likely that very soon we won’t be able to do title searches on houses.<

You are going to have to explain "why" to me on that one.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html

Thanks Owen, it’s definitely sobering.

I picked a fun time to start a business (November)… interesting to see how much this impacts our fundraising.

wise advice…betting down has always been intriguing to me, kind of like solving a hard puzzle…

I am though feeling a strong urge to watch the airlines over the next six months or so…

they’ll be a recovery…I mean, I’m pretty sure they’ll be a recovery…timing that re-entry in to the market could be interesting…

for those of you geeks who like maps and numbers (and are a bit bored) – this is a big part of what GIS was made for:
https://coronavirus-resources.esri.com/

>>>“Bidiong – Thought you lived in Australia for some reason.”<<<

I’m sure this isn’t the first time Bidiong’s been mistaken for Dtrickey.

Catching up on this thread has been quite the trip.

It’s great to hear that situation took care of itself, Strat. I was stressed just reading about it, so I can’t imagine how you felt while it was going on.

My roommate’s (completely non-essential) employer somehow hasn’t sent everyone home yet, which is crazy given that I get the impression we’re a day or two away from a curfew. So many people just seem a step or ten behind when it comes to evaluating the seriousness of this situation.

new thread plz

Day 1 of the quarantine my wife got into an Instagram beef with Michael Rapaport.

>>>Dry roasting sounds interesting. You just put them in the oven at a certain temperature or can you just put them in a covered pot on the stove?<<<

Just brown them in a skillet with no oil.

If Detroit wants to match a good offer for Christian Wood, it seems to me they will have to waive some players they care about, or go way over the cap. If they actually just sign everybody to their cap holds, they will be over the luxury cap, and that calculation assumes Wood gets paid only his cap hold, which is $1.7M. That seems unlikely to me. So they have some tough decisions to make, and they will get tougher if the cap goes down because of the Coronavirus.

That means that 4 Nets are irresponsible idiots that were out partying even after seeing several basketball players test positive or they all got it from another NBA source that we aren’t aware of yet (incubation period issue). I don’t think there are any recent game ties between the Nets and the players that we know are positive so far.

Shit, they could have gotten it stocking up at the grocery store. Or a fan from New Rochelle was at a game and touched a handrail or something that one of the players or staff then touched. Or church. Could have been almost anything, doesn’t have to be irresponsibility or an NBA source.

so, another trip to the local grocery store…oh yeah baby – scored some toilet paper as they were bringing it out…not exactly the good stuff, gonna have to be a little careful with the wipe…

bread was gone…

also picked up a can of spam, there was only one or two cans total left…more symbolic than anything, but i feel better now…not much of a drinker, but, got me a 20 pack of tecate lite, just in case this thing drags on for a while and the grocery store situation gets a little crazier…

nothing like a beer and a smoke to settle the day…

heck, i didn’t much like leaving the house before, now, not much need to at least…

really need to go through the pantry, fridge, and medicine cabinet to organize better though…

I understand that anything is possible, but it seems way more likely it was something the 4 did together.

They probably all get the same spam mail. Stays on surfaces, right? NOBODY PANIC, I’M DOING IT ENOUGH FOR ALL OF US.

I feel you. Add some lotion to your regime though. I ordered a 500 count box of individually wrapped alcohol wipes. I figure this is a less horrible way to sanitized safety.

There must be all these germophobes out there just feeling intensely vindicated.