Knicks Morning News (2019.05.21)

Guys I think some of you take my posts WAY too seriously.

I just think it’s funny, that’s all. This is literally the highest pick we’ve had since Ewing. Even higher than the Porzingis pick. And we’re all immediately cool with trading it. Durant, AD and Kyrie is a higher level of starf*cking than Melo and STAT but at the end of the day it’s still starf*cking.

I mean, you tried to call out a bunch of people for being inconsistent when in fact no such inconsistency exists. All we’ve ever wanted the Knicks to do was make moves that indicate they understand their place on the win curve. For the overwhelming majority of my life, their place on the win curve indicated they should’ve been stockpiling picks to the maximum extent possible. If they’re able to sign KD and Kyrie, that very obviously changes. There’s no inconsistency whatsoever.

If “starfucking” in this context means “wanting a bunch of of highly productive players to be on the Knicks,” then yeah, sure, I guess I want that. The problem with maxing out our cap space on Melo and Stoudemire was they weren’t nearly productive enough to justify that. KD, Kyrie, and AD most definitely are productive enough to justify that and then some. Again, no contradiction.

I just listened to Zach Lowe and Kevin Arnovitz discuss Anthony Davis trades. Everything was about trading high picks in combination with something else for him. Whatever happened to the traditional trade a good player for other good players type of deal. This is a big blind spot the media has. They made the same mistake with Kawhi. It only occurred to them that he might go to Toronto when it was actually happening.

They made the same mistake with Kawhi. It only occurred to them that he might go to Toronto when it was actually happening.

But then again you had a pretty specific set of circumstances there: Pop wouldn’t have accepted a rebuild, they probably wanted to send Kawhi to the Eastern Conference and I guess they weren’t enamored with many of the picks or young players dangled in front of them for Leonard.

In New Orleans case you have a first-year GM who probably has carte blanche to start with a clean slate and Zion, so it only makes sense that they’re going after young assets and picks. It’s pretty much the Sam Presti model.

I do think it’s possible we see a surprise Davis suitor emerge that’s looking to trade more present value as opposed to future potential for him. Would something like CJ McCollum+Zach Collins+a pick be interesting to New Orleans? If Zion is as good right away as some people think is possible (I tend to think he’s going to struggle at least a little in year 1 as he gets used to being around more guys who can at least compare with his athleticism), a Zion-Collins-Jrue-McCollum core lets you at least keep contending for the 8th seed and you still have a young team. Portland makes a big bet on the idea that they can take the next step in a Durant-less West next year and that Lillard/culture/a year of winning can convince Davis to stay.

A big factor here may be that true bottoming out doesn’t look quite as appealing these days. As we just saw you can “contend” for the first half of the year, throw in the towel late if it’s not working, and tank yourself into a position that with the flattened odds puts you in with a chance to win the big draft prizes. Making at least a token effort to win now could help keep Zion happy, and if you’re out of the playoff race at the deadline you move on from some vets and suck the second half.

The problem with any “rebuild” is that I don’t trust this FO’s scouting because I think Knox was a terrible pick. Plus, they traded real assets for Mudiay. I know… they caught lightning in a jar with Robinson, but I’m starting to think that was luck (even a stopped clock is right twice a day.) This FO and coach seem better equipped to deal with established stars tbh.

On top of that there are other young bigs like JJJ, Ayton, and Bagley who are coming up.

Oh yes, but they don’t have the Unicorn narrative. Even on this board, one of the (if not the) savviest around the web, it took a lot of time for people to be convinced of something pretty self-evident, namely that Jokic is a much better player than KP.

You know narrative drives these things.

i almost forgot we have a 2nd rd pick…. we might actually have a shot of keeping this one…

anyway… tacko fall looks like he’s coming in for a workout and is a great flyer at the tail end…. i think he has a chance to be viable but it’s sort of a low upside pick since i doubt he can stay on the floor for more than 15 mpg….

shamorie ponds is again getting disrespected…. seems like every 5 or so years some guard falls through the cracks and he’s probably it….. i have him as lotto worthy but for whatever reason he’s not getting serious attention in the second rd..

Porzingis has had an outsized share of media attention since he was drafted. If the Mavs build a contender around Doncic, Porzingis will get credit for the wins no matter what he does. If Porzingis returns to his peak scoring volume on a >.500 team, he will make an ASG.

All-NBA is a different story altogether. Travesties like the Harden non-selection don’t happen very often. Narrative still matters, but less without the fan vote.

@2

Thanks for following up with the reality on Frank’s defensive effort against Harden. I was too busy to read the rest of the thread, but kind of figured there would some nonsensical follow up. Frank’s effort was so good that night, after the game Harden sought him out and appeared to be encouraging him about that specifically.

I’m not sure what to think of where Frank’s head is at. I’m willing to accept the reason for changing agents, but it would be very logical for him to request a trade given that management has shown no competency in how to use him or confidence in him given they added players like Mudiay and DSJ to play over him. Some agents and players are not going to come out publicly and demand a trade even if that’s what they want. They’ll do it behind the scenes.

It only really a conversation because he’s such a lightning rod here, on twitter, and pretty much everywhere else you find Knicks fans. Some people focus on his terrible offense and some people focus on his plus defense and his likability. Few are seeing the whole picture and are wiling to wait.

@15

The flip side is that even though the Mavs sucked despite Doncic’s rookie heroics, if Porzingis returns to form after a couple of months and is used properly, even if the Mavs are improving rapidly the boxscore fans will still give most of the credit to Doncic and not enough to KP because in both cases the metrics are wrong, but in opposite directions. Though I will admit that if used properly, KP’s efficiency should rise a bit eventually when he hits stride after the long layoff unless he has an IQ problem. He has a good coach and the demands should be lower with Doncic on the team.

I predict they will trade Davis for good players, assuming they trade him at all.

I don’t think there’s even the slightest chance of Davis going back to New Orleans, so yeah, they’ll trade him.

On the “good players” thing, it depends what you mean with that. Is Jaylen Brown a good player? Is Jayson Tatum? I just don’t see an NBA team giving away a second or third tier star to get Davis, not because he’s not worthy of that (he surely is) but because I don’t see any team willing to take that risk for a player who might not be back.

The only real outlier here is Philadelphia. If they want, they can trade Ben Simmons for Davis. Other than that, I don’t think there’s a scenario where the Pels get a really good player in a trade (BTW, not even DeRozan is a “really good player”).

They won’t get the equivalent of Davis, because that doesn’t really exist. But I think teams will trade second or third tier stars for him. Teams have shown a willingness to take risks on re-signing players they trade for before, for example Toronto with Kawhi, OKC with George, and Philadelphia with Butler. I don’t know if Philadelphia would trade Simmons for him though. That means teaming him up with Embiid and losing your by far best point guard, which might not work very well.

But come on, you don’t find it just a bit funny that we finally tank and get the highest pick we’ve had since Ewing and immediately everyone is like “yeah, trade the pick.”

The irony is not lost on me. But as others are pointing out, it’s for reasons that no one could have imagined previously.

I will say there is a part that wouldn’t hate it if we struck out across the board and ended up with an all kids lineup that looked like this:

G Smith
G Frank
F Barrett
F Knox
C Robinson
6th Trier

I would expect that team to be right back in the top of the lottery next year, but that’s what a legitimate rebuilding team looks like. If you had a decent player development system, maybe some of the guys would begin to improve.

smith… barrett … and robinson is actually not that bad of a team to build around… frank and knox are not really worth waiting or depending on….

I’m not sure what to think of where Frank’s head is at. I’m willing to accept the reason for changing agents, but it would be very logical for him to request a trade given that management has shown no competency in how to use him or confidence in him given they added players like Mudiay and DSJ to play over him. Some agents and players are not going to come out publicly and demand a trade even if that’s what they want. They’ll do it behind the scenes.

Serious question: what is the proper way to “use” Frank Ntilikina? How would Coach Strat maximize his wide array of skills? He already takes a large plurality of his shots from 3. According to BRef he’s spent 69% of his total NBA minutes at PG and 30% at SG, so they aren’t exactly throwing him all over the court.

I posted his shot distribution yesterday in response to you saying the Frank Saboteurs were forcing him to do a bunch of sub-optimal things. There’s nothing in the numbers to support that idea, unless you want to accept a technical victory on the basis that everything Frank Ntilikina does offensively is sub-optimal.

I’d honestly prefer not to trade for AD either — unless we get to keep 2 of our 3 best assets going forward (Mitch, #3 2019 pick, unprotected Dallas pick). And if I’m New Orleans, you have to think that they can get a better offer than whatever pupu platter we put together aside from those assets.

I honestly think Kyrie, Dotson, Barrett, KD, Mitch is a super fun lineup, with 4 guys that can credibly create offense (I’m calling Dotson credible), 3 above average to elite 3 point shooters, 3 plausibly good defenders. Knox, Trier, Frank, DSJ, Kadeem Allen, Kornet, and maybe Vonleh would make a pretty fun bench. To save KD from the wear and tear of playing the 4 full time, Vonleh or Kornet could start instead of Barrett.

If we needed to trade one of Frank or DSJ to get a more experienced backup wing who can defend and shoot with the room exception that would be fine. A 3rd center could be Vonleh, or otherwise signed as a vet’s minimum. Heck, we could even bring back Lance Thomas on a minimum contract just for locker room leadership and theoretical defensive purposes – he’s fine in spot duty for 5-10 minutes/game, just nothing more than that.

So long as they don’t trade Robinson, I’m fine with Barrett and the Dallas pick for AD (plus whatever other players need to be included to make the salaries match – Knox, DSJ, Frank, whatever).

I might even be convinced to trade Robinson and the Dallas pick. Miiiiiiight.

As much as I like the idea of hanging on to draft picks and watching them develop, I believe that Barrett’s perceived value right now (before he’s played a minute in the NBA) is higher than what his actual value will be. Now he may prove me wrong and blossom into a star, but right now he’s a really valuable trade chip and that may not be the case 1-2 years from now.

So I would vote for pulling the trigger on an AD trade, providing that we don’t have to throw in Mitch and that we’re 100% assured that he re-signs.

@29

I tried to explain that yesterday but you were probably too occupied posting things about how bad he is to pay attention. 🙂

It’s not a matter of what you should be doing with him.

It’s a matter of what you should NOT be doing with him.

Frank is a switchable plus defender that’s a willing and good passer. At this stage he has virtually no positive skills as a scorer. The idea is to get him on the court with players that can score well enough on their own that his own limitations do not take much away from the “team output” on offense when he’s on the court but you still get his positives on defense and passing. In layman’s terms, he’s a role player.

The problem is, he’s so limited now, it’s kind of hard to limit the damage on offense. But if he adds a 3 pointer (which is not so far fetched given he was OK in France for his age and isn’t totally horrible now at just 20), he can become a net positive to team output when on the court with players like Durant, Kyrie and other “scorers” even though he’s a low usage scorer. He can be a very good role player.

What’s dumber than a pile of rocks is asking him to create shots off the dribble, post up smaller guards, shoot mid range jumpers etc.. as part of some ill conceived notion that he has to be a more aggressive scorer now. He doesn’t have those skills yet and may never. Like I said yesterday, it would be like asking Mitchell or Tyson Chandler to shoot turnaround off balance jumpers out of the post just be more aggressive. That’s dumb. It wouldn’t help their efficiency or the team output on offense. You have other players on the court more suited to taking tougher shots when the possession demands it.

They goal for this year should be to continue growing as a defender and focus on turning him into a decent/good spot up 3 point shooter that can play off other players and make occasional plays. If he can achieve that much, he’ll be fine. Then he has another 6-7 years to slowly add to the tool box on offense.

swift, your angle is almost always calling out people for being too pessimistic about, say, a 17-win team or a megamax contract given to an eternally overrated player who was forced into retirement before his enormous contract ended. I appreciate that it might be easier to involuntarily hold the belief that Kevin Knox and Frank Ntilikina are as worthy of patience as a core of Durant, Irving and Davis would be of on-court praise, but you have to at least be aware that your bias is glaring and at times unreasonable.

What’s dumber than a pile of rocks is asking him to create shots off the dribble, post up smaller guards, shoot mid range jumpers etc.. as part of some ill conceived notion that he has to be a more aggressive scorer now. He doesn’t have those skills yet and may never. Like I said yesterday, it would be like asking Mitchell or Tyson Chandler to shoot turnaround off balance jumpers out of the post just be more aggressive. That’s dumb. It wouldn’t help their efficiency or the team output on offense. You have other players on the court more suited to taking tougher shots when the possession demands it.

Third time now: his shot distribution numbers from this year indicate he wasn’t really being asked to do any of these things. Over 40% of his FGAs were 3s. According to nba.com/stats, he attempted 0.1 post ups per game. He decreased his number of mid-range attempts after Fizdale took the reigns from Hornacek. Where are you getting this idea?

Keeping Frank around on the off chance our player development machine can turn him into something useful only makes sense if we strike out in free agency. If Durant + another good vet or two come on board we should ship out Frank. You can’t play Frank if you’re trying to win games.

Jowles, I am eternal team optimist, that is true, but I think my posts and position has evolved over the last year or so and I think my posts would reflect that. I believe I no longer just blindly support the team and have been pretty even keeled about my evaluation of players. I’m totally fine with trading Frank at this point cause he’s a lost cause.

I would not give up on Knox. I think he can still be good. I think we gotta give him another year at least. He was super raw and was given an almost unprecedented green light this year. And its not like the team was full of good PGs to control the flow of the game and make sure he didn’t chuck away.

DSJ…I’m indifferent. As a back up to Irving that might be nice but would he accept that role? I don’t know.

But as far as trading away our pick, other picks, all the youngsters for AD…I go back and forth on it but at the end of the day I think I land on the side of just signing KD and Irving, keep the picks and youth and call it a day. See where the team is at mid season and if a good value trade for a good veteran opens up. But I think going all in on another big 3, even if its a good big 3, could be super risky and short sighted. I’ve stated over and over that I would much rather set up our franchise to be a good team for years to come (like The Blazers) than just giving us like a 2 to 3 year window to win it all with Durant and then have to start all over again.

I guess if the trade is #3, the Dallas pick and a couple of the youngsters and we keep all of our other picks, then I’d be down for it. I just don’t want to empty the cupboard for him and be left with a 3 stars and a bunch of vet minimum dudes and then we blow again when they get old or move on. Get the Knicks back to the level of respectability where you can count on them to win 50 games a year, make the playoffs, etc, year after year. Championship or bust doesn’t appeal to me ultimately.

I wouldn’t trade Siakam for Davis straight up.

Pairing Kawhi and Davis would be amazing. Kawhi would have to agree obviously.

But we WOULD have to throw in Mitch. He’s maybe more valuable than the #3 on his contract. Plus, he’s a hometown product for the Pels. Barrett/DSJ/Knox/picks just isn’t enough.

Then I don’t do the trade. Barrett, Knox, DSJ, Dallas first rounder is a fine offer. Heck, if you (not you specifically, I mean a general you) believe that Boston can still trump that with a Tatum/Brown/#14 pick deal because of Tatum’s cachet, then surely that same Boston offer would also trump the inclusion of Robinson, right? So just stick with the first offer and hope that Boston doesn’t trump it with the Tatum deal.

It’s a frequent joke here but re: Frank, it’s actually true that he’s a 35% 3P% away from being a useful player.

Aminu shot 28.6% from 3 over the first 5 seasons and 381 3PAs before somehow learning how to shoot at age 25 and shooting about 35% on 4-5 attempts/game over the last 4 seasons.

LRMaM learned to shoot 3’s at age 29-30 and has been in mid-30s since also.

Jerami Grant is another guy who was a defense only guy who has now become a real contributor (he’s much bigger and athletic than Frank).

In a vacuum I would be happier trading DSJ because i think it’s easier to find inefficient athletic small guards than it is defensive minded high basketball IQ guys that can guard 4 positions credibly. But i would understand if they didn’t think there was time/opportunity for Frank to figure himself out on the team’s timeline if KD/KI are coming.

Serious question: what is the proper way to “use” Frank Ntilikina? How would Coach Strat maximize his wide array of skills? He already takes a large plurality of his shots from 3. According to BRef he’s spent 69% of his total NBA minutes at PG and 30% at SG, so they aren’t exactly throwing him all over the court.

I’m past believing any changes would bring out a real NBA player in him, but if there is a right way to use Frank, it’s completely off the ball and as a secondary playmaker. We used him way too much as the primary ballhandler and way too much in the pick and roll.

If we did run all our kids next season, the ball would be in the hands of Smith or Barrett most of the time. But he needs to do a lot more than just be able to hit an open three. He would need to be a good screen setter, he would need to rebound (as you pointed out yesterday, his rebounding is pathetic), and he would need to make plays from the perimeter. I would try to turn him into Marcus Smart or Draymond Green, basically. Highly unlikely. But I wouldn’t hate watching it next season more than I hated watching Derrick Rose.

It’s a frequent joke here but re: Frank, it’s actually true that he’s a 35% 3P% away from being a useful player.

*sigh*

Let’s do this again. If Frank had shot 35% from 3 to this point in his career, here would be his career line (per-36):

10.2 PPG
3.6 TRB/G
5.1 AST/G
1.3 STL/G
2.6 TOV/G
.454 TS%

Where is your useful player? I’m not sure if people realize how much of a defensive juggernaut a player would have to be to even approach”usefulness” with these numbers. I’m inclined to think that if Frank Ntilikina was such a juggernaut, it would show up in the DRPM or DBPM numbers.

All-Rookie Teams will be announced this afternoon. Begley just tweeted that SGA and Shamet are on the 2nd Team.

1st is probably: Luka, Trae, JJJ, MBIII, Ayton.

@ Brian, I generally agree with your stance, but I do think teams will ultimately value Tatum more than any other piece, although it’s hard to know how other teams value Mitch.

Re: Frank, he’s just terrible at too many things he needs to be at least competent at (rebounding, shooting, finishing) but maybe he’d be a little better off in a structured halfcourt offense like the one Jax envisioned. I think we should definitely trade him for a low first/early second.

I don’t feel great about DSJ, but he’s all we have at the point as of now, and he seems like a fit with the running style Fiz (I think?) wants.

1st is probably: Luka, Trae, JJJ, MBIII, Ayton.

You forgot Knox.

@ Brian, I generally agree with your stance, but I do think teams will ultimately value Tatum more than any other piece, although it’s hard to know how other teams value Mitch.

That’s the thing, then. If you think they’ll ultimately value Tatum the most, then even including Mitch won’t be enough, so why include Mitch? Go without Mitch and force Boston to beat it with their super Tatum deal. Then at least Boston will have had to severely weaken itself to get AD.

I agree that Siakam’s lack of shooting has been a bit of an issue this postseason and that the Bucks have been ruthless about exploiting that. I also think it’s really important to remember how dramatic the strides he has taken in each of his NBA seasons are. 2 years ago he took DNPs other than garbage time throughout the playoffs. Last year he was a bench player averaging 6 points a game. So I’m not too surprised that today he’s still stretched a little thin as a #2 scorer in the ECF. The trajectory of his growth gives me a lot of optimism that he’ll improve the weaknesses in his game.

Why did the Wizards think that they could get Tim Connelly to leave Denver for the same job with them?

2 things to contribute here as I think the board is in deep pessimism mode right now. Maybe it’s the nerves of waiting around to find out if we get KD or the disappointment of not getting Zion or what.

1) The x factor on the AD trade is his signing of an extension and that is not coming into these trade scenarios enough. Every AD trade scenario must incorporate that. I mean maybe he is looking at LAL right now and telling himself he’s not signing up for that mess. Same with Boston not because it’s a mess but because they need to empty the cupboard to get him. Remember Horford and Rozier could also both be gone. Heyward sucked this year etc.

2) I find it very perplexing that people think they can accurately predict the outcomes of RJ Barrett on this board. That’s a joke. Even predicting Knox’s outcome is unserious. Frank MAYBE because he obviously regressed before he got hurt.

In general this Knicks administration’s ability to develop players is under much more scrutiny this year than last. They essentially have no track record (Fiz especially) in that department. And any data from this year was mixed as it related to young players. Positive examples can be shown in MRob, Trier, Kornet and even Knox was playing better at the end of the season as much as the negatives with Frank, DSJ (didn’t really show any improvement in the 1/3 season) etc.

They certainty with which data driven commenters are commenting on tiny data sets is absurd.

Where are you getting this idea?

A new racing form comes out every day, but you’re probably too busy eating avocado toast and being wrong about the economy to notice. 🙂