Knicks Morning News (2018.09.08)

In baseball they have stats like ERA+, OBP+, etc. that are used to compare an individual player’s season to the average for that season (it also controls for park factors which I doubt would be needed in the NBA). It’d be nice to have the same thing for the NBA.

Co-signed. I’m a little surprised we don’t have these yet. I guess the analytics movement in basketball is still relatively new, but we also have concepts a lot more advanced than something as simple as TS%+ or whatever.

On a different note, there’s been some talk about possibly flipping Trey Burke for a first or signing him to a long-term deal. For the millionth time in my history as a Knicks fan I hope I’m wrong but I just don’t see it. He was definitely a net positive down the stretch last year, but it took some seriously anomalous shooting numbers just to get him to that point. I mean seriously look at this”

FG% by distance
0-3 career: .537
0-3 2017-2018: .726, about where LeBron James is for his career

3-10 career: .350
3-10 2017-2018: .410

10-16 career: .423
10-16 2017-2018: .462

16<3 career: .423
16<3 2017-2018: .566, Dirk Nowitzki is at .475 for his career

3PT career: .339
3PT 2017-2018: .362

There are definitely some caveats–his 3-10 and 10-16 numbers have been trending up for a few seasons now–but overall it's not hard to see what's happening here. With all of this anomalous shooting he could still only manage a 56% TS. If that falls to 52-53% all of the sudden you're looking at a near-useless player.

tnfh, and for the millionth time I need to explain that Burke’s overall TS% was not anomalous for the player he is right now. His TS% in the G-League was .592, where he shot 42% on 3’s on 165 attempts and 52% on 2’s on 361 attempts. He also shot 83% from the line, which is near his career average, while only shooting 65% after being called up. It’s easy to dismiss G-League stats, but in Burke’s case, I think they are relevant because his shots in the NBA are essentially the same shots he took in the G-League. He can get his own shot any time he wants and it’s just a matter of whether he makes them or misses them. The key for him is to keep upping his FTr and 3PTr and to maintain decent %s from there (say, 80% and 38%, both attainable. I am fairly confident that his 56% TS is for real regardless of whether his 2PT% drops into the high 40’s (very likely), given the nature of his scoring and the progress he’s made in the areas I’ve mentioned.

Duh, his supprting cast.

Probably because Burke, whether you believe in him or not, is one of the few good things to happen to the Knicks lately and one of the current administrations few unqualified successes.

Probably because Burke, whether you believe in him or not, is one of the few good things to happen to the Knicks lately and one of the current administrations few unqualified successes.

I agree with this and I’m happy we have him! We can’t really hurt ourselves with his situation as long as we don’t do anything stupid, so I’m sure we’ll hurt ourselves with his situation.

Z-Man, it’s interesting that you bring up his G-League numbers because they support the idea that some regression is likely coming. His NBA 2PT% was over 3% higher than his G-League 2PT%. They don’t keep track of shooting data by distance down there, but I feel pretty good about saying that he probably wasn’t shooting like LeBron James the rim and Dirk Nowitzki from 10-16. He juiced his TS% with a free throw rate he’s never been able to replicate in the NBA for the most part. I am happy to concede that he will be a great player for us if he shoots 40% from 3 and has a .247 FTr like he did in the G-League. I would certainly not bet on it.

Like I said, I’m happy to have him. He definitely deserved the call and basically carried the entire watchability of the post-Porzingis Knicks on his back last season. My only point is I don’t think we’re getting a first round pick for him, and I don’t think he’ll play at a level that would make an extension a wise move.

tnfh, and for the millionth time I need to explain that Burke’s overall TS% was not anomalous for the player he is right now.

I think it probably was anomalous and you are likely to be wrong about this. G league TS% for a 25 year old generally merits a huge downward adjustment to the NBA. You put 23-27 year guards with NBA experience in the G League, you generally see a big TS% boost, and often guys like RJ Hunter come off looking terrific. His percentages from two point range are almost guaranteed to come down, and his expected improvement at the FT line would be only a small offset unless his FT rate picks up substantially from his career history. His TS last year was 56.3%. You seem to be setting the over under at 56.3% by saying (for the millionth time) it wasn’t anomalous. If I was making the book I would set it at 52.5%, which might still make him a fringe NBA player if he keeps his A/TO strong, but at a very different level. I’m basically assuming he shows slight improvement from his career levels in % at the rim and from 0-23 feet (which still makes him an elite 10-23 foot shooter), and maintains his 36% 3PT percentage while shooting over 80% from the line at the same FTR as his stub Knick season. I hope I’m wrong. His best chance at beating the odds in my view is to shoot way, way more 3s and fewer long and mid 2s. That’s not impossible.

I don’t get this Burke conversation at all.

I think his G league data obviously matters, but you have to discount it a bit because of the level of competition. To me, when you adjust that G league data a little, combine it with his NBA data from last year, and use some intuition (he’s coming into his peak years and he’s more mature), the most likely outcome is that he’s a better player now than he was in his first few years and will make a very good backup.

That’s exactly what I am hoping for.

I hope he continues to show enough to be considered a solid backup PG and we can get him at an attractive enough price to sign him long term.

@14 there’s some of that, although in Burke’s case it’s a bit different. He legitimately put up the best young Knicks PG stats since Linsanity and signed to a minimum deal so we don’t have to stress about poison pills for now.

If anyone is suggesting that I’m cherry-picking stats to prop up Burke’s chances, that’s probably true too. Because at the end of the day, I believe in the guy because what I saw looked and felt real and sustainable. There was a swagger and comfort level in everything he did that made it feel real. I would guess that even the most dogmatic statheads among us know what I am talking about and agree on some level.

But hey, we’ll find out soon enough who’s right.

I think looking at career shooting numbers for Burke is probably a little disingenuous. It doesn’t take much film to acknowledge he is a better player than his first couple years in the league. A bit more fair would be looking at his last three years. It’s almost 3000 minutes.

Over the last three years, Burke has an efg% of 51% and a TS% of 53%. I think that is a good baseline for his shooting. I would be surprised if he dips much below those.

I would suspect because he is entering his prime he will climb a bit over that and if Fitzdale gets his 3ptr back to over 0.4 like his last year in Utah it could be even a bit higher than that.

If I was putting a betting line together I would set it at over/under 54.5% TS%

54.5% TS% is a good number for a PG and with his great assist/to rate he will probably be an average starting PG next year, and hopefully a great backup one for us for years after that.

I think the chance of him flaming out is about the same as the chance he develops into a star. Most likely he will be a solid PG moving forward, not a starter on a great team but a definite rotation level player.

I repeat that I think Burke’s defense is what will hold him back. Last season, a surge in offense, as seen when looking at his offensive and defensive box plus/minus. His poor defense means that it is highly doubtful that he’ll ever be a front-line NBA starter. His ceiling appears to be a spark-plug off the bench for a good team, That being said, he could be a good backup if he can keep up his scoring with that kind of role.

Season OBPM/DBPM (ORtg/DRtg)
13-14: -3.0/-2.5 (101/115)
14-15: -1.9/-1.9 (100/108)
15-16: -2.5/-2.0 (102/108)
16-17: -2.3/-3.4 (103/114)
17-18: +4.3/-3.2 (117/114)

@19

I agree the defense looks ugly and it will probably always be, but I don’t think that’s a big issue, especially on this Knicks team. That’s why he should play together with Ntilikina, as both should help each other in their primary weaknesses. Plenty of good teams have handled bad defensive guards pairing them with good versatile defenders, and Ntilikina was already really good guarding elite guards last season.

Isaiah Thomas has a career -2.8 DBPM and his best career mark ever is -2.0. He had a -3.3 when they won 53 games in 16-17. Obviously he was on a whole different level in terms of offensive production in that year, but if Burke can just replicate his numbers last season over a full year he’s a starter even with the terrible defense.