Knicks Morning News (2018.08.14)

The thing that makes me call bs on every one of those “basketball is complex and advanced stats are always flawed!” arguments is that somehow all the complexities advanced stats can’t account for are always favorable to the Knicks player du jour on the conversation (unless he’s called Tyson Chandler or Willy Hernangomez, then it’s always against them).

That you would call bs on every one of those arguments because they always favorable to Knicks players is pretty typical of your “all or none” approach to arguing, i.e. either people agree with you or they’re wrong.

You bring up Tyson Chandler. Three widely accepted advanced stats paint a significantly (but not radically) different picture of his value during his best seasons, especially on offense. The argument was made that his extremely low usage mitigates his extremely high efficiency, a pov that was shat upon by Mr. WP48 and his disciples. And god forbid that anyone use PER in defending that argument! Well, lo and behold, BPM data from confirms that while Chandler had a slightly higher VORP than Melo (3.2 to 2.3), nearly all of that was due to defense. Melo had an OBPM of 2.9 to Chandler’s 1.4.

So when I brought up yesterday that WP is actually more deviant from BPM than PER, I am absolutely suggesting that WP methodology grossly inflated efficient but low-usage scoring and rebounding to Chandlers benefit, much in the same way that PER inflated high-volume but inefficient scoring. If BPM has become the go-to stat for Jowles arguments, then there has to be an admission there. BPM makes it clear that Chandler was a very good, but not great player even at his peak offensive efficiency. And when his defense fell off, as it did in the 2012-13 playoffs, he was no better than the then journeyman Kenyon Martin.

Willy Hernangomez is a poster boy for the inefficiency of BPM. He actually rates out higher on DBPM than OBPM, even though he’s an objectively terrible defender and passable at worst offensive player TS%-wise.

In short, it’s not as all-or-none, us-vs-them as you constantly suggest.

@2

You’re really reading too much into this. I was obviously being hyperbolic with the use of “every one” and I didn’t even read your posts, it was mostly a reaction to strato’s post about KP and shooting guards being underrated by advanced stats.

There are surely good arguments that go against most advanced stats and I don’t think you’re wrong in this post, as with every method of evaluation advanced stats have to be recycled and reanalyzed constantly. I was just poking some fun at this thing I see where the complexities of the game somehow make key Knicks players (Melo, Porzingis) always better than advanced stats when their actual results on the court seem to agree with advanced stats more. You need to use your sense of humor more.

I just can’t understand why you hate so much the approach of everyone is wrong when they don’t agree with me. Isn’t that the point of having an opinion and constructing an argument? If I thought about something and I’ve reached a conclusion about it, what’s wrong about believing my own conclusions until they are proven wrong? Until someone can prove I’m undoubtedly wrong I’ll stick to my conclusions, which is what everyone including you does. I’m a scientist, this is what I do.

I can’t be the only person here who doesn’t care whether the Knicks are bad or merely mediocre at drafting

The thing that baffles me about the drafting argument is, again, WHAT WERE THE BETTER PICKS AVAILABLE TO THEM? Almost everyone has evaluated the picks in relation to various cherry-picked stats (and here, I’m calling you out again, Jowles, as you picked the two best years of the other players while always having argued – correctly – that players typically suck their first few years and don’t peak until 26 or so, meaning that the VORP on KP and Frank and any recent picks have little bearing on the eventual value they are to provide)…while it is perfectly possible to look at EACH ACTUAL DRAFT and evaluate the pick in relation to the players still available. If you do that, you see that yes, the Knicks almost always missed on a Gobert, but then, so did every other team. And unlike most other teams, they didn’t miss on Gobert, and Giannis, and Porter, and Oladipo, and Steven Adams, and so on and so on, BECAUSE THEIR PICK WAS LOW.

In other words, people are having this argument in a vacuum, when the actual draft is available for proof or rebuttal.

In that context, in general the Knicks have done well. They just have had poor position, or no pick at all, most of the time.

I fall in between Stratomatic and Bruno on this.

I’m largely on board with advanced statistics but I find glaringly obvious that they overstate the value of a player who excels at offensive rebounding while being terrible at defense. Kenneth Faried, Enes Kanter, Willy Hernangomez, Kevin Love are a few examples off the top of my head. Before anyone jumps on me, I think all those players are good and productive. I just think most advanced stats we use overstate their production relative to other players because offensive rebounding is highly valued and impact on team defense is easy to see but hard to measure.

I don’t agree with Strat’s point on stretch PFs. Porzingis is a bad rebounder on both sides of the court and his mediocre offensive output does nothing to negate that. He’s a problematic NBA player so far, and likely will continue to be unless he figures out a way to add enough strength to be a good rebounder and be able to keep it on over the course of a season. Advanced stats have him pegged perfectly.

Its just weird to me how many people are ready to completely write off KP now after 3 years in the league when he’s still only 22 years old. Whatever happened to he’s 3 years away from being 3 years away?

I’m just going to put this out there. Maybe KP, at least in the minds of some of the people on his blog, is a victim of his own success? IE, he came into the league and surpassed his expectations pretty quickly. But since then he’s only marginally improved so people now think he’s peaked when the reality is that he was always a long term project. He was just way better than advertised to begin with.

I get the hand wringing though bc we have to make a decision about him and his new contract very soon. But the way some people talk on this blog you would think he’s been in the league for 8 years and hasn’t improved at all.

With Melo it was very logical to be down on him. By the time he became a Knick he had played in the league for almost a decade.

KP is going into his 4th year. There are players his age who are only in their 2nd or 1st year in the league. He had half a season as the number one option and he may not be a true number one option when its all said and done. But can we at least try to remember the good things he does as a player? I’m not asking for a purity test, just some balance when it comes to evaluating a 22 year old player who was supposed to be 3 years away from being 3 years away.

Are people writing him off? Or are they just projecting he won’t be worth what we are going to pay him?

I don’t know, I like Porzingis. For 10-12 million per I would love him. But he’s a hard guy to trust with the largest chunk of your cap.

“I felt I could have written it, so the fact that it was already written was kind of a technicality.”

Love this

@14 and 15
Agreed. That’s where I’m at. Let’s hope KP can come back at some point this season and do well.

The outcomes for Porzingis by this time next year are:

1) He signs a $195M extension after two months of play post-injury. Regardless of his returning play, this seems a huge risk.

2) He is S&T’ed to a dumb team in the off-season for a king’s ransom. He gets his money and the Knicks get multiple picks and/or young good players. The fanbase is royally pissed, but depending on the haul, could be a real win long-term. Far less risk than the above.

3) He’s S&T’ed to a smart team that gives up very little to acquire him. Given the injury risk, I see this as unlikely, but I understand why this would be perceived as a bad outcome. I would probably agree, since I would have fielded offers for him before the trade deadline last year.

4) He doesn’t come back from the injury with enough confidence to receive the supermax. He takes a Capela-like discount to stay in NY. This would be an okay outcome to me.

I see (1) as the most likely scenario, which is a NTC Melo level blunder to me. Not as bad as Wiggins’ supermax, or Noah/Deng/Ryan Anderson contracts, but still very bad for the Knick future.

What’s weird to me is actually how many people outside this blog think we need to give him whatever he wants. This is the only place I can talk about Porzingis’ flaws without people thinking I’m Ebeneezer Scrooge. My friends who are Knicks fans are completely irrational about him and think he’s already a superstar. Victim of his early success? Quite the opposite. His occasional stretches of stellar play have created the popular perception that he’s a max player, when even a cursory look at his actual production thoroughly refutes that idea.

Although as KBPowerRankings said,

Even if the “truth” finds we are above average in drafting, it doesn’t even matter.

Fair enough. I also said as much in my original post – we make so many other mistakes (including usually trading away draft picks), it is hardly our biggest problem.

It really grinds me that he has been billed as a franchise savior since day one. Sort of like how Wiggins was told very early that he was The Man in Minnesota, and now their owners “have to” pay him an absurd amount of money immediately before saying publicly that he needs to improve substantially to earn his contract! That’s insane!

Porzingis should get the same treatment, but instead, there’s constant apologism for him: why his efficiency is shit, why he doesn’t rebound at all, why he takes 20-foot jumpers like his Franchise Savior predecessor, why he is worth a $195M gamble instead of cashing out and wisely delaying the rebuild with more assets.

Before last season, Minnesota fans on Reddit told me Wiggins was due for a breakout season and they were so confident in that they used the RemindMe! tool so they could rub it in my face by season’s end. What’d I get? Crickets.

If Porzingis plays two months well, it’ll be enough evidence for his fans to reward him with 35% of the Knicks’ cap space. If he plays like shit, it’ll be too soon after recovery to write him off.

The pragmatists can’t win.

Ya think any owner reads Berri? lol

fWIW his max is 25% of the cap. There’s now no way he can qualify for the mega max. So $27m, not the 35% or $30m + that some people are quoting.

Now, would that make it ok? It’s a huge risk. I love KP and I still think with the right system and coaching he could be great, but there’s no denying the arguments of those pointing out that he isn’t great yet, and there are at least as many realistic scenarios where we regret a max as there are where we don’t.

Assuming he comes back healthy, I’d at least try and quietly gauge the market around the draft, and I’d also be pushing for some Embid-style protections in any deal.

My issue with the max is not so much if KP is worthy of it or not, it’s much more simple: this is a peak 30-win roster with not a lot of youth and just the normal assets you would expect (their own picks). This type of team should not be giving away max contracts unless it’s a stud young player with proven production.

KP’s max will artificially speed up the team’s timeline when it’s not ready to move forward yet from the rebuild. It’s not so much that he’ll be overpaid, it’s the consequences in strategy of that overpay specifically.

What about the complex idea that KP being a poor rebounder puts extra strain on his teammates to go for these rebounds, making the game harder for them? How about KP’s inability to shoot at an above-average rate makes his guards look worse because they get less assists from his bricks? How about KP’s lack of an inside game forcing his fellow big men to bang inside with opposing bigs on the offensive paint all game long makes them more tired and less effective overall? How about maybe, just maybe, his production is actually subpar and he needs to improve in a lot of areas to actually deserve the contract he’ll eventually get?

When I pointed out that statistical models are not capturing KP’s value correctly, that means I think he’s better than he looks on WS/48, BPM, and definitely Wins Produced. That does not mean I think he’s a superstar. There are shades between black and white. In fact, that’s where reality usually resides.

I meant to say that KP should be told that he needs to improve a great deal before he receives that contract. Not that he should get the supermax and then be told to get better.

I would simply tell him the truth.

If KP puts winning high on the priority list, they should explain to him it makes sense for them to try to create enough cap space for 1 or 2 very significant players next year, but they can’t do that if they give him a max contract now. They should tell him they fully understand the risks involved. If he plays and gets hurt again, his big chance for that one big payday will be gone. So if he decides to take the year off, they would understand. He could keep working on his strength and game while the team develops the other young players this year. Then they’d get another good draft pick, potentially bring in a valuable player or two with cap space, give KP is max contract next year and go from there.

It’s on him too.

The Knicks can just refuse, but that will create tension again. They can also try to get him on board for waiting and put the issue of risk “in his court”. If he wants to play, play. If he’s afraid of blowing a big deal, sit out. One way or the other he’s getting that max contract because now that players are drafted so young, you have to give the best prospects max money before they prove they are worth it.

Has Melo done enough for his number to be retired by NY?

@36 – HELL no! What did Melo do for the Knicks except set the rebuild back a decade?

As for the KP debate, we’re at least 6 months away from it being an issue. If healthy, I rank him as a borderline all-star. He’s not an All-star in the West, for sure. That being said, he’s not a super-max player but he will probably merit $25M per year. It all depends on his health. Unfortunately, that also means he’s going to rush back to play and prove his value which is bad for the tank.

I think KP is worth around a 4 year, $60mm deal.

I’m aware that, somehow, that would be considered insulting. So I’d be willing to go 4 years, $100mm if I’m Perry. It’s a drastic overpay, but I think there’s a better than 50% chance KP can match that value, and I do think the Knicks need to take some risks.

If that doesn’t get it done, then I would trade him. But 5 year deals and deals that are a percent of the cap (when the cap is expected to increase drastically) would be off the table completely. And considering no other team in the NBA has the ability to offer one, I’m not sure why we would.

But yeah, I know he’s going to get the max.

Zion Williamson will be an NBA superstar.

I wrote this earlier, but it’s kind of silky to talk about how well “the Knicks” draft when it’s a bunch of different front offices that did the drafting.

KP based on his production so far is worth about 15-18 million a year. His offense is good but not great, high usage and demands double teams but not as consistently efficient as one would like. His rebounding is poor but his defense is elite which more than makes up for it. Plus the Knicks have managed to be a good rebounding team even with KP’s poor rebounding so I question how much it hurts the team.

The thing is he is young and came into the league as a project so you are not signing him for his past production but his future production. There is no reason to think KP won’t continue to improve so him getting his efficiency up doesn’t seem far-fetched. If it wasn’t for his injury giving him the max would be no question. Remember his max is 27 million a year not 30 or 35 million. So everyone needs to calm down with this supermax stuff because he doesn’t qualify.

With the injury, things are a bit up in the air but most likely an ACL tear shouldn’t be career altering and with some insurance and health clauses, a max contract is fine. The idea of trading him for a young player and a pick or two is a terrible idea unless that young player is Ben Simmons or that pick is #1 overall because drafting a player who is even as good as KP is now is unlikely and drafting one that has half the potential to be as good as KP could be is not going to happen.

But they’ve missed on more than half of their picks.

Good lord. Again, WHO WAS AVAILABLE AFTER THOSE PICKS? What players should we have taken instead of Vranes? Aside from the issues Knick Fan Not in NJ points out about VORP and WS, it isn’t about the pick itself; it’s about who was available when that pick was made.

Why is that so hard to understand? I mean …. who picked after them turned into a star? If the player the Knicks picked performed better than all but one or two players picked after them, you have to consider that a good pick, whether or not the player himself was actually good. You have to grade the pick based on who was available; whether they were good or bad in a vacuum is meaningless.

In that context, Vranes WAS a bad pick; Matt Bonner, Kyle Korver, Zaza Pachulia, and Mo Williams were all picked afterward. But what god was picked after Thanasis? Literally no one; there wasn’t a single better option. So he was never a good player…what does that actually say about the Knicks’ drafting prowess when the players after him were all terrible? After Papanikolaou, only Kyle O’Quinn was good. After THjr, only Gobert. (Though Crabbe and Roberson are at least decent.) After Fields, nobody.

Yes, they made mistakes – I’m looking at you, Iman, with Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, Chandler Parsons, et alia, all still on the board, and you, Jordan Hill, with DeRozan, Jrue Holliday, and Jeff Teague. But a lot of the time they did pick best player available.

No team gets it right every time. Getting it right more than half the time is good. Not getting it right almost ever is called Sacramento. Or Charlotte. You want to know what bad drafting is, look at teams like that…wow.

I checked and the median WS last year was 1.1, while the average is 2.0, and the distribution is definitely skewed.

As for WS overvaluing players on good teams, of course there is a correlation of bad WS and bad teams, but the causality is not all one way. The make up of the stat favors players on teams that put up good numbers overall.

@51 I agree on all except (2) Porzingis is not evidence of good drafting. Regardless of how Porzingis turns out, the fact that he has significantly more market value than anyone drafted below him (except maybe Turner and Booker (although not everyone here likes Booker, he’s worth a ton right now) in and of itself makes him a smart pick in retrospect. What they do with that perceived value is another question entirely.

But yes, they absolutely made a good pick there (and I would say a great pick, as in, who was a better pick from #2 to #10?). Even statistically, his VORP (your favorite these days) is 5th highest in the draft, and two players above him were picked at #27 and #40 and can’t be considered alternatives in the slot KP was picked. Let’s not forget also that it was the pick of the century thus far for them…a #4 pick in a deep draft…so the consequences of whiffing were enormous. Considering that KP was not the consensus pick there, they did very, very well, it’s ridiculous to argue otherwise.

The thing is he is young and came into the league as a project so you are not signing him for his past production but his future production.

If we pay him based on past production we could conceivably get surplus value from his contract. If we pay him based on speculative future production we will not.

I never really thought about it this way, but I don’t think it’s guaranteed KP will sign a long term deal in New York next summer if we don’t get him a playoff team/superstar in free agency. Like maybe we can’t get Kyrie Irving or land a combination like Tobias Harris and Terry Rozier. He could take his QO and walk in 2020 at age 25.

But Scott Perry and David Fizdale are not Isaiah Thomas, Scott Layden, Glen Grunwald, Larry Brown, Donnie Walsh, Jeff Hornacek, or Phil Jackson. So we can’t say that the draft process will be anything like it was in the past

Fair enough.

Don’t add another one to the list Owen, please, I’m just starting to believe the inevitable destiny of the Knicks signing Rudy Gay is miraculously not happening. There’s still Tyreke Evans and Andrew Wiggins left on the list.

I think KP would be insane to take the qualifying offer, there will certainly be a team offering a very good deal to him if we don’t. Even if he’s 100% confident in his health and the Knicks somehow don’t offer him the max, it’s not happening.

At this point I would be comfortable getting him back at something like 4 years between 80-100 million, but let’s hope he does improve and is able to stay healthy. The best case scenario would obviously be a Curry situation, where he somehow accepts a below market deal and then improves, but that’s not realistic at all to expect.

It’d be nice if we could give him a contract that was full of injury contingencies, though I don’t know if that’s very likely. It’d also be nice if it were for a moderate amount guaranteed with increases based on performance like Davis had. We might get that if his recovery goes slowly. Injury guarantees are the more likely scenario of the two, but I have no sense of how likely. Probably not very. KP is far more popular with the fan base than management is, GianaDani’s right about that much. They’ll probably give him too much money because they don’t think they’ve got any leverage.

I think he will get close to the max, but maybe he will get a small discount for signing a longer contract or something like that. I think if he was a restricted free agent, some team would offer him the max, because they would know they have to do their best to overpay to get a player that way. That wouldn’t be good for the Knicks.

The Davis and Embiid contracts are instructive though. Max money if you hit certain production targets (he lost out on some big money from not making first team NBA if I recall correctly), and injury protections for the Sixers if he isn’t available to play enough his guaranteed money shrinks. If Perry is very good at his job KP’s next deal will have elements of those.