Knicks Morning News (2018.06.15)

I find the Memphis #4 pick discussion fascinating. If this is actually a real rumor, and Memphis is actually interested in trying to make the playoffs this year, I actually sorta think that the Knicks might be the most reasonable trade partner. Boston, Phoenix, and I guess Philly probably have the most trade assets in terms of draft capital. But– Boston is going to have enough trouble signing their guys without adding Parsons’ contract– so they’re out. Phoenix doesn’t have any players they could send back with the draft picks that would help Memphis win, and their earliest available pick isn’t until #16. Philly could send #10 this year but they are big fish hunting in free agency this year and obviously are trying to contend next year, so it seems unlikely they’d eat Parsons’s contract.

In terms of teams between #4 and #9, I don’t imagine Dallas wants Parsons’s contract just to move up 1 spot. Orlando could perhaps eat the Parsons contract and sign/trade Aaron Gordon (not sure if that is legal before 7/1?) but that seems like a very backwards step for them to move up 2 spots especially if they’ve got their eye on Trae Young who will likely be available for them at 6. Chicago has cap space and could send back Justin Holiday and Asik’s $ I guess, but it seems likely they will want to be players in the FA market next summer. Cleveland – zero chance.

We could send Lee (~12.5MM/year x 2y) + Lance (7.1MM + 1MM next year guaranteed) + 9 + 36 for Parsons + 4. That would save MEM ~4.5MM this year and ~12MM next year (which could give them near max-space in summer of 2020, not that they are FA destination), and add 2 rotations guys to their team, while adding a 2018 mid-lottery pick and a premium 2nd round pick. Heck, I’d even send them a lottery protected 2019 pick that turns into 2 seconds if not conveyed by 2020.

I would only do that if one of Ayton/Doncic/JJJ were still on the board, but it’s not that bad…

I’m not sure there’s a better deal for what Memphis wants than the 4 and Chandler Parsons for Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr, and the #9 overall selection. To make the salaries work/give them depth they could have Courtney Lee, and then they’d have Conley, Hardaway Jr, Mikal Bridges, JaMychal Green, Marc Gasol, Trey Burke, and Courtney Lee as a top 7. That’s a playoff team if they stay healthy, and there’s a good amount of youth to keep up their legacy of 45 win seasons.

If I’m the Knicks I’m ironing out a deal for the Grizzlies #4 pick but I don’t pull it off until draft night and Doncic is still on the board. It doesn’t make sense for us to trade up for Jarren Jackson Jr or Marvin Bagley. If the top 3 of the draft actually goes Ayton, Bagley, Jackson Jr, then you call Memphis and execute the trade. Doncic is the only player worth it for New York, so it would be interesting to see how things unfold draft night.

Memphis, being a small market team, pretty desperately wants to avoid the luxury tax and make the playoffs in order to ensure some modicum of profitability. Those business incentives, when coupled with the fact that Chris Wallace is actually a pretty bad GM who will be on the hot seat this season, might keep the door open to us keeping the 9 pick, if we’re savvy and Memphis is desperate enough. It’s an unlikely but live possibility.

Take a look at THIS REPORT showing the top 6 by BPM 19yo freshmen at any position having played >= 300 minutes. One of the 6 is JJJ and 4 of the other 5 are considered elite NBA players. Noel is not elite but he’s posted nice stats and his problem is his head not his game.

How do you not take the very young JJJ when you look at that? In fact, you should take this Garnett- in-the-making instead of Doncic whose shooting and defense is a question mark. If JJJ is there at #4, you offer some combination of THJ/Courtney/Lance for Parsons/#9. It’s tough to find a quality 4/5 modern NBA player and he’d be near perfect next to KP. Re-sign KOQ to a cheap deal and the front court of KP/JJJ/KOQ/Kornet is set for the future. We’d have a high draft pick in 2019 and oodles of cap space to spend on Kyrie and others after watching Frank/Burke/Dotson/Troy for a year.

The difference between Garnett and JJJr is that Garnett could actually dribble and pass and was maybe the best defender at the PF position ever (along w Duncan). JJJr. is not going to be KG even though he may be quite good. He’s more like a Capela who’s worse at rolling but can shoot given space.

For the 1000th time, Doncic is far and away the best prospect in the draft. There is almost no coherent argument to the contrary. His defense is not actually a question mark and he posts positive defensive stats. The “Luka isn’t athletic” criticism is a myth based on a flawed idea if athleticism centered around no stepvert and sprint speed times as opposed to skill based athleticism. He can still dunk and jump, no doesn’t need to be Russell Westbrook. The questions he has are quickness, which could improve given an NBA level training program and is already something he makes up for by being built like a truck; and his 3pt shot, whose percentages are lower than they should be because he routinely took extremely high degree of difficulty stepback 3s. Fix the shot selection (or let him work on those step backs until he gets good at them) and you have at least a 35% 3 point shooter, if not better.

Since you mentioned BPM numbers, if you put Doncic in the NCAA he’d post maybe the single greatest NCAA season of all time (along with Michael Beasley).

doncic will not be available at #4, both phx and sac have front offices from former yugoslavia and are both ready to pull the trigger on him

The Knicks will not get the #4 for the #9 and a pile of garbage. Add Frank for the #5, as I believe Dallas was genuinely interested last year, and maybe it happens. The questions is, would you do it for Doncic? For Bamba?

God, I really hope this Lonnie Walker interest is a ruse of some sort.

Why would Dallas not just take Doncic? But also, why won’t they trade friggin Harrison Barnes for the 4?! That’s just dumb. They could have a Doncic/Bamba/DSJr core.

The Knicks will not get the #4 for the #9 and a pile of garbage. Add Frank for the #5, as I believe Dallas was genuinely interested last year, and maybe it happens. The questions is, would you do it for Doncic? For Bamba?

Correction – #4 plus one of the worst contracts in the NBA for the #9 and some useful players on reasonable contracts.

Parsons has $50MM left on his contract. Nate Duncan / Danny Leroux have a general rule that $20MM = 1 first round pick. That means that dumping that contract is worth 2+ 1st round picks.

Think about what we would have to include in a trade for a team to take Noah off our hands. Parsons’s contract is worse than Noah’s by $6MM/year, and Noah at least has a chance of playing.

I forgot about the Clips – they would be a reasonable trade partner, although #9 vs #12 is a big difference.

Yeah, that’s a pretty easy trade for me. Frank could end up being Jae Crowder, but he’s probably not going to be Kawhi Leonard. I’d take the Euroleague MVP.

Well, “risks”, being #4 with the ability to choose among many prospects is a good position to be.

I agree you trade up now and risk it. If Doncic is gone we still get a very good player in JJJ or Bagley.

I think Lee + Mudiay + #9 + next years 1st top 5 protected for Parsons +#4 might get it done.

I wouldn’t want to move a future pick but for a very good chance at Doncic I think it’s worth it. Plus I’d rather keep Frank than a top-five protected pick. Most likely a top-five protected pick will end up somewhere in the mid to late lottery and I’d rather have Frank than a similar player two years from now.

How many European players other than bigs like Pau and Dirk have been NBA stars?

How many European players have won Euroleague MVP as a teenager?

I’m comfortable giving up Frank in a Doncic trade, but absolutely not any future picks, unless they’re lottery protected. This team is not in position to be giving up bites at the apple.

Wouldn’t surprise me at all if they had that trade ready to go with Knox and Walker in mind at 12 and 13.

I think Frank is a bite at the apple. I would rather have Frank than anyone in this draft after the top 8 and this is a deep draft. Frank’s defensive potential is much better than Mikal’s and he will probably be a similar shooter in a couple years and is already a better passer and ball handler. Frank has a long way to go to be a PG but his passing and ball handling are fine if he’s a wing and he has similar size to Mikal.

A trade down with LA seems like a pipedream. The only way it seems even remotely possible is if Young, Porter or Bamba fall and that seems less likely by the day. Plus if any of them fall I think we just take them and walk away happy.

Well if it were me, I’d ideally go with one of Smith/Sexton at 12 and one of Williams/Miles Bridges at 13, although I think Miles will be gone by then.

I just think based on reports, the Knicks seem to really like Knox and Walker – perhaps my two least favorite options. I also think they like Anfernee Simons. But this “move down” plan is probably one of many that they could implement on draft day. They probably have a few “move up” plans and “stand pat” plans, too.

Real Madrid
2013 Under–14 Ciutat de l’Hospitalet Tournament: Champion
2013 Under–14 Minicopa ACB of Vitoria-Gasteiz: Winner
2013 Under–14 Spain Championship: Champion
2014 Under–18 Madrid Junior Championship: Champion
2015 Under–18 Madrid Junior Championship: Champion
2015 Under–18 Ciutat De L’Hospitalet Tournament (ANGT): Champion
2015 Under–18 Spain Championship: Champion
2015 Under–18 Euroleague Basketball Next Generation Tournament: Champion
Individual awards
2012 U–13 Lido di Roma Tournament with Olimpija Ljubljana: MVP
2013 U–14 Ciutat de l’Hospitalet Tournament: MVP
2013 U–14 Minicopa ACB of Vitoria-Gasteiz: MVP
2013 U–16 Budapest International Tournament: MVP
2013 U–16 Villa de la Laguna Tournament: MVP[59]
2013 U–16 EA7 Emporio Armani Tournament: MVP
2014 U–16 Spain Championship: MVP[60]
2015 U–18 Ciutat De L’Hospitalet Tournament (ANGT): All-Tournament Team
2015 U-18 Madrid Junior Championship: MVP
2015 U–18 Spain Championship: MVP
2015 U–18 Euroleague Basketball Next Generation Tournament: MVP
Senior level
Real Madrid
EuroLeague Champion: 2017-18
2× Liga ACB (Spanish League) Champion: 2014-15, 2015-16
2× Copa Del Rey (Spanish King’s Cup) Winner: 2016, 2017
FIBA Intercontinental Cup Champion: 2015
Individual awards
EuroLeague MVP: 2017/2018
EuroLeague Final Four MVP: 2017/2018
All-EuroLeague First Team: 2017-18
2× EuroLeague Rising Star: 2017, 2018
Spanish League Best Young Player: 2017
2× Spanish League All-Young Players Team: 2016, 2017
Slovenian national team
FIBA EuroBasket 2017: Gold
FIBA EuroBasket All-Tournament Team: 2017

If this guy shows up in the NBA and pulls a Jimmer, I can safely say that the optimal draft strategy is to use a random number generator and pray to the god of your choosing.

Off the top of my head, Sixers, Lakers, Raptors, and Celtics (ugh) have the assets to make a play for Kawhi. With one year left on his desk though he can dictate a lot of what happens. I hope for the sake of the NBA that he finds himself on a team that can a) challenge the Warriors and b) is not the Celtics.

I swear to god if the Celtics get a healthy Kawhi for Jaylen Brown and a future first–

Irving, Hayward, Kawhi, Tatum, Horford? No. Please god no.

Or what if they offered Hayward for Kawhi straight up. Equally bad.

@45 there’s a lot of chatter about how Ainge simply cannot trade Gordon Hayward. Agents across the league would blackball the Celtics and nobody would trust that organization if Hayward, a max player, gets traded a year into his deal and a year after they got rid of Isaiah Thomas.

The new Big 3 of LeBron-Kawhi-PG might actually happen after all.

@48 If I’m Memphis and my goal is to compete right away and I know Luka Doncic will not be a happy camper in my city, Tim Hardaway Jr, the #9 pick, and a top 7 protected 2019 that become a top 12 protected 2020 pick is what I’m expecting from New York. Conley, Hardaway Jr, Mikal Bridges, JaMychal Green, and Marc Gasol is a playoff line up, and then I still have my fair share of young guys in the stable to develop.

Injured KP and a pick for injured expiring Kawhi sounds fairish

That said if he’s so intent on leaving why don’t we just wait til FA since he’s expiring? Is it because he wants to resign w whatever team he’s traded to? Does he get more guaranteed money if he does?

A perfectly safe, competent draft night takeaway looks like Mikal Bridges and Bruce Brown to me. That would be a nice mix of upside and relative assurance of at least some production.

Frank would have to improve by leaps and bounds to be average on offense. If you offered me “average-offense-elite-defense” as his ultimate destiny, I sign for it right now.

I don’t often make projections because there’s no point in embarrassing myself when it comes to 19 year old players. However, I’ll make an exception in Frank’s case.

IMO Frank is a mortal lock to be an ABOVE average offensive player and top defensive player in as soon as 2 years but max 4 years.

Some guys have the physical tools but don’t have the IQ or work ethic. Some guys have the IQ and work ethic but don’t have the physical tools. Frank has the perfect body, enough athleticism, and an over the top work ethic and basketball IQ. In my life experience, people like that NEVER fail unless injury derails them. He’s going to be a VERY good basketball player. In my mind, he’s almost untouchable unless you are getting a star back.

I would add Mike Scott and Dennis Schroder to that list.

Frank has Iman Shumpert’s career written all over him.

He’s better than iman defensively already, but the comparison isn’t crazy. Iman never amounted to be a two way player. Frank could fail those expectations as well but he isn’t a knuckle head like iman
Was.

@63 I don’t think it’s fair to call Iman Shumpert a knucklehead either. He’s a man of many interests and he was good enough at basketball for it to get him a scholarship at Georgia Tech. He’s married, actually has a talent for rapping, he’s into fashion, and above all else he stays out of trouble and was good enough to win a championship against the 73-9 Golden State Warriors. He broke my heart as a Knicks fan because he should be every bit as good a basketball player as Paul George and Jimmy Butler, but there’s a difference between not having the focus to be a good NBA basketball player and being a knucklehead.

It will never happen and I’m in the minority but I’d rather trade KP and that #9 to get Doncic. We’re so behind in our rebuild and I have so many reserves at KP’s stamina/durability as a star/max contract player. I’d rather replace him with Doncic, let Frank develop and keep accumulating high picks for the next few years of Warriors dominance than spending those years trying clear space to make a big free agent splash for a team to build around KP.

@68

I’m curious, how old were each of these players? You mention Walker’s age to disqualify him, but no one else’s age is mentioned.

I’m curious, how old were each of these players? You mention Walker’s age to disqualify him, but no one else’s age is mentioned.

I mean, how old can any of them be? Randy Brown? Dickinson Simpkins? If you’re terrible when you’re young, you don’t really get a chance to grow old in this league.

@67 if trading KP was a thing you could just trade him to Sacramento and keep the #9 pick and Frank Ntilikina. Sacramento desperately wants a superstar.

@67 if trading KP was a thing you could just trade him to Sacramento and keep the #9 pick and Frank Ntilikina. Sacramento desperately wants a superstar.

I would do that tomorrow. And, yes, fans plus the media would cry, whine and throw fits like they did during the Melo controversy. It wouldn’t rattle me a bit. In NYC you have to rise above the popularity contest which rules sports culture here to make the best decisions for your franchise win, lose or draw. Doncic, Frank, + Bridges would give us lots multi-positional options to build upon.

I think players should be able to use whatever power they have to go wherever they want, but it still disappoints me that Kawhi Leonard has a problem with the Spurs. I know it sounds dumb, but I almost wish something bad would come out about the Spurs to just make his thinking make more sense.

Sacramento is not trading the 2 straight up for a player with a torn ACL who is about to miss most of the last year of his rookie deal.

IMO Frank is a mortal lock to be an ABOVE average offensive player and top defensive player in as soon as 2 years but max 4 years.

I thought you were like an analytical horse racing handicapper data-driven sort of guy. Right now if you’re saying that Frank is a “mortal lock” to be above average on offense, you’re basing that on nothing but eye test bullshit.

I mean, I dunno, maybe there’s something you see in his no-handle, no-rim attacking ability, shaky jump shot-having game that puts him into this “mortal lock” category but it damn sure ain’t the available data.

I think people have a little ptsd when it comes to trading picks. Trading unprotected picks is always dumb and no pick that is not protected at least top 3 should ever be traded but other future picks should be fair game as long as the trade is right.

Right now I think 1st round picks are overvalued and a bit of a market inefficiency. If I can move a pick for a player that is better than what that pick will reasonably turn into it’s a good trade as long as the incoming player fits my timeline and financial situation. Frank has just as good of a chance of turning into a plus player as anyone outside of the top 8 players this year.

I think people have a little ptsd when it comes to trading picks. Trading unprotected picks is always dumb and no pick that is not protected at least top 3 should ever be traded but other future picks should be fair game as long as the trade is right.

I actually agree with this, even though I lived through the Isiah Knicks.

Here’s a question:

In December 2013, James L Dolan vetoed a trade between the Raptors and Knicks which would have sent Kyle Lowry to NY in exchange for Ryan Felton, Tim Hardaway Jr, and either Iman Shumpert OR the Knicks’ 2015 1st round pick.

That pick, unprotected, would have been #4 (Porzingis).

Today world we be collectively complaining about the bad deal that sent Porzingis to Toronto in exchange for Lowry, a 4 time all-star since 2014? Or would we be pretty satisfied?

I’d do that trade without blinking in a vacuum, though we still wouldn’t have made it out of the east imo. I guess we would’ve been a starting 5 of Lowry, Prigs, Melo, Amar’e, and Tyson, with a bench of Bargs (lol), Cole, Beno, K-Mart, and JR. You could do worse than that, but idk, if your trade doesn’t realistically increase your chances at a chip over the next few years, is it really worth it at all? Playoffs are better than no playoffs if you’re building towards something, but that might have been just a similar thing to the 2012-2013 Knicks, where we were great for one year but due to fall off a cliff since our productivity came from aging players (Kidd, Camby, KT, Tyson and Melo to an extent)

It’s hard to say. It’s obviously a great trade in a vacuum, but it’s hard to fully evaluate the counterfactual.

EDIT: I guess what year’s pick it was doesn’t *really* matter, since we would be making the playoffs each year and so it’d be a mid lotto pick. But we might still be stuck with MMM if we traded for Lowry.

Vegas odds for Kawhi’s next team:

What team will Kawhi Leonard Play for Game 1 of the 2018-2019 season?

LA Lakers 5/7

Boston Celtics 15/4

Philadelphia 76ers 5/1

San Antonio Spurs 5/1

Cleveland Cavaliers 10/1

LA Clippers 10/1

Although a more sophisticated approach does factor timeline of player development into any decision as well, and in that respect it might have been a bad thing for us, particularly as Melo declined so precipitously.

If KP was inserted in the draft, he’d be the first guy picked.
If you’re looking for the perfect player, there’s only one. It’s not Doncic.

Coming off an ACL injury with a max contract coming up? I am not so sure he’d be taken in this draft #1 with those conditions.

just a second ago I was the outlier optimist on KP but yes you can be 100% sure that he would not. The rookie scale is extremely important to NPV and KP has maybe 500 minutes left on it not to mention actual comeback risk.

Ugh, the Kawhi stuff is annoying. But it does seem like there’s a growing sense that it might be better to move KP because he’ll always be injury prone. On the other hand, will Frank ever be remotely decent on offense?? Crap!

Anyway, there’s no doubt I’d trade KP for Carter, and I’d obviously trade Frank for Doncic.

Doncic + Carter > KP + Frank. Get it done, Scottie!

@9 + a million for entire post.

Haven’t been on K-blogger all day and when I go to the site I see 100 posts! And I’m thinking “wow, there must be some serious trade rumors going on, maybe we can move up in the draft after all”

But alas, just idle speculation about deals that will never happen. As always, other teams can offer more than us and we’re just an afterthought.

Sucks to be a Knicks fan.

I don’t love Collin Sexton but I can kind of squint my eyes when I look at him and see an NBA player.

Lonnie Walker, getthefuckouttahere with that.

I have a sinking feeling that Knox is going to be the guy- it’s clear they really want a 3/4 (rather than a 2/3 which they already have plenty of) and unless Porter drops it’s either him or Miles Bridges.

Drafting for “need” when you’re a 29-win team, then reaching for a player at your “need” position who isn’t even very good.

#Knicks

KP is 22, has not had a reasonable point guard, has not had a good coach/management/system, nor anyone on his team to ever command a double team. He has literally had the worst possible circumstances to deal with. He’s going to get stronger. Frank is 19, played the unselfish euro style instead of selfish AAU and is a great defender and good passer. I think he has a good feel for the game which is more important than being able to do a 360 windmill dunk (DSJr). He’s a baby and deferred too much to his teammates even though they suck. He will work his butt off, get stronger and gain confidence. Both of these guys are unique and their games are conducive to winning. Don’t trade either one please.

So Sixers and Celts are in the mix. Tanking doesn’t work!

I think he has a good feel for the game which is more important than being able to do a 360 windmill dunk (DSJr).

Yep, that was the criticism of Frank’s horrifically bad offensive in his first season. He wasn’t able to do windmill dunks. Come on, man. I’m still all in on Frank, but he was just flat out horrible in nearly every facet of his offensive game in his first year.

@108,,

Definitely no, even if it didn’t doom our defense, which it does.

Your have a point, but I’ve been listening to draft previews lately and most of the top picks not good at defense or extremely bad. Doncic seems better than some at defense but not great. If our management is trying to move up in the draft they are not doing it because they value defense, at least not if they are giving up KP to move up.