Knicks Morning News (2018.06.05)

IMHO, if there’s any one characteristic that defines Mikal Bridges, it’s his efficiency.

He’s really efficient at shooting, scoring, defending, and even developing (with his significant year-to-year improvements between all 3 years). Mikal has that characteristic in spades over every other player in this draft.

And he did all of that while limited to the few weekly hours the NCAA permits.

yeah re: Mikal – the idea of a player having room for improvement because of age sort of pre-supposes the idea that those players will improve — which doesn’t always happen. Mikal actually HAS improved every year.

Mikal has improved at shooting and significantly so. He hasn’t shown much in the ways of physical development or growth as a shot creator off the dribble, ball handler, playmaker/passer or as a rebounder.

You compare him to a player like Miles Bridges who went from being a small ball 4 in a well spaced, but poorly structured offense to being tasked to be an off ball wing shooter and secondary playmaker in a poorly spaced and structured offense. His efficiency dropped slightly from 58 –> 57.2 TS% despite having to create more for himself off the dribble and worse driving lanes. His ball handling improved tremendously from his freshman year as did his pull up jump shooting.

I’m not arguing Miles HAS to be the pick at 9, though I do like him, but he’s an example of somebody who has improved his skills in more ways than Mikal has in less time. Mikal has literally only improved his shooting ability over 4 years at Nova. That’s obviously important, but it also leads me to believe his avenues for success in the NBA are more limited, even if the skills he brings are among the most coveted — high volume, high efficiency 3P shooting on a great diversity of shot types and versatile, switchy perimeter defense.

I want more of a margin for error with who we pick at 9 than banking on those 2 skills translating without significant drop off from college to the pros and/or development in facets where he hasn’t shown a whole lot. I wouldn’t be upset if we do pick Mikal, but there are guys who seem likely to be available I prefer as prospects for sure.

Never thought I’d ever say these words, “Way to go Eagles!”

WCJ would be a grade A miracle drop and his fit with KP would be the absolute last thing I’d worry about. Trae Young would be a grade A- miracle drop.

Sexton looks a lot like a DSJ slash Mitchell level prospect so if he goes in the 8-13 range the gap between the two drafts at that segment might not be was wide as believed?

I like Carter, but I definitely worry about the fit with KP.

I like the fit with KP a lot.

I don’t know if it’s wise to expect KP to become a better rebounder, so I believe he needs a real center next to him. And that’s going to be the hardest component to find, because most centers are giving up one thing or another. Kanter, for instance, gives up defense! And even a great center like Clint Capela (who I actually love; how good he is was never the point of that discussion) is a suboptimal fit next to KP because Capela can’t do much if you need to move him away from the basket to give KP space down low.

The ideal center for KP needs to rebound, needs to be versatile enough to guard perimeter players on switches, should be able to interchange with KP on offense, and should be able to space the floor. Basically Al Horford. And that’s the kind of versatile, complete player Carter looks like he can become.

Frankly, Horford is the real unicorn. Not a lot of guys like him. That’s why I’d be more excited to land Carter than any other player who has the potential to fall to us.

In order to land him, it seems we need Chicago to pass on him for a Bridges. But they probably will see him as the perfect fit for Markannen.

Sexton looks a lot like a DSJ slash Mitchell level prospect so if he goes in the 8-13 range the gap between the two drafts at that segment might not be was wide as believed?

Fair, if Sexton goes #9, then that’s not that impressive over last year. To be fair, though, last year was also a strong draft. The Jazz were lucky to have a draft as deep as last year, as in other drafts, Mitchell goes Top 8 easily.

I think the perfect fit with KP is Shawn Marion.

Can we clone him and bring him back?

I still see KP playing C eventually. He’ll never get a LOT of offensive rebounds because he’ll be on the perimeter a lot, but he should do better on the defensive side of the ball if he’s playing C and spending less time on the perimeter chasing PFs. It will also help if he gets stronger. Still, putting him with a PF that excels at rebounding is my favorite scenario. Miles Bridges might be a decent small ball PF to team with him and his rebounding skills might also be helpful if he’s playing SF.

I actually think Williams is the best potential fit next to KP, but picking him 9th is going for less value than a few other prospects at 9.

That’s why I don’t see how Porter can drop to #9. Even if a team in the top 8 doesn’t want Porter themselves, they have to know that they can trade him easily, because Porter at #7 or #8 is insanely good value. Unless his injury is worse than expected, of course.

That’s why I don’t see how Porter can drop to #9.

I saw an article yesterday predicting he’s going to fall out of the top 10.

I have very mixed feelings on him. It’s difficult to figure out which of these 19 year old kids are going to develop into good players and which won’t as it is, but at least you have a year of college stats to evaluate and have seen them compete against other high level talent. With Porter, it’s a much bigger guess even before to get to the injury risk. Mudiay was great high school player. Unless in a private workout you can actually differentiate skills well, he’s a super high risk.

Chicago like Carter. Reports have him being their #1 target. So unless it’s misinformation he won’t get past them.

All I know is that Ainge will find a way to move up to 4 and snatch Doncic.

The rumor a few weeks ago was that Chicago promised Chandler Hutchinson they would pick him at 22. If that’s the case then Wendell seems like an inevitability at 8.

That does make sense, yeah. Man, this Porter stuff is just fascinating. Maybe he really is seriously injured still. If so, he might fall out of the lottery entirely!

I have very mixed feelings on him. It’s difficult to figure out which of these 19 year old kids are going to develop into good players and which won’t as it is, but at least you have a year of college stats to evaluate and have seen them compete against other high level talent. With Porter, it’s a much bigger guess even before to get to the injury risk. Mudiay was great high school player. Unless in a private workout you can actually differentiate skills well, he’s a super high risk.

But Mudiay is the perfect example – we also had no idea what to expect from the guy because of the China thing and he still went top seven. If you look at the top high school player in the country (which, okay, Porter technically wasn’t, but only due to a technicality – I’m still counting him as one), going back as far as I could see (which admittedly was only 2010), none of them made it past #7 (which is where Mudiay went – Nerlens Noel also lasted to #6, and that was also injury related like Porter).

The problem, of course, is that Porter might be career-altering injured, which would throw it all for a loop. In that case, sure, I could see him falling out of the lottery entirely if he isn’t right, health-wise.

And if Chicago passes on them, then that would be mean found gold for the Knicks to get either Bamba or Jackson at #9.

But Mudiay is the perfect example – we also had no idea what to expect from the guy because of the China thing and he still went top seven.

I’m wasn’t making a prediction on where he’s going to end up being selected. I don’t the know the thinking of any of the front offices.

I was commenting on risk and the report I saw that he may drop out of the top 10.

I’d say Trae Young is a higher than average risk because his game collapsed in the 2nd half of the season and I feel fairly certain he’s going to be a negative defender (maybe neutral at best). But he’s a lower risk than Porter. At least we know Young is healthy and capable of playing at a high level against college competition. We just don’t know which Trae Young is the real one, the first half, 2nd half, or somewhere in between. We don’t know much at all about Porter other than he was very good in high school and got hurt.

And if Chicago passes on them, then that would be mean found gold for the Knicks to get either Bamba or Jackson at #9.

Yeah, we really want Porter to be healthy and to go in the top 6.

EDIT: Unless, of course, you really want Porter, i.e. you are Glass Half Rebuilt 🙂

I guess I’m including Porter in that top 8. I imagine he’s healthy enough but using his status to drop to the team he wants to play for. I think Dallas and Chicago are in play, and maybe Cleveland, depending on LeBron.

Ayton is a bizzaro D12, Doncic is Doncic, Bamba is Gobert 2.0, Bagley is a more relentless Chris Bosh, Carter Jr is Horford/Embiid esque, Jackson Jr is a 3 balling Capella, Young is an athletic Steve Nash type, and Mikal Bridges might be a two way Reggie Miller.

Wow, this is the best draft ever.

I’ve mentioned before that MPJ “falling” to us represents something of a nightmare scenario in my opinion. Sometimes former top prospects really are just cooked a la Harry Giles, and everything I’ve seen from Porter leads me to believe that very well may be the case with him. Even before the injury there were reasons to be skeptical (no clear position and tunnel vision to be specific), and now it just seems like a totally unnecessary risk.

Put it this way–if we passed on him and he became a star, I’d still be totally comfortable with the process involved.

I may be alone on this but Im not very high on Carter. Bigs that can’t switch to the perimeter and who are a liability in the PnR have a limited value, no mater how skilled they are in other ways.

Carter is borderline unplayable against teams like Houston or Golden State.

Well, Giles had torn ligaments on both knees and he played 300 quite unimpressive minutes at Duke. Most teams knew he would need at least one more year of recovery and monitoring on his situation, it was a lot more serious than Porter’s.

If Porter is not healthy at all I can see him dropping outside of the top 10, but it doesn’t seem to be the case so far.

@37 yes this draft is the best of the decade and the best since 2003. Ayton, Bamba, Bagley, Doncic, Young, Jackson Jr, Carter Jr, and Mikal Bridges all have the film and stats to prove it. Of the NCAA prospects I listed, the lowest WS/40 is Trae Young’s at a .201, and Doncic just won the FIBA Europe and Euroleague championships with an MVP to go along with it.

I’m not the biggest fans of Mikal Bridges and Jaren Jackson Jr, but they were productive and are two of the longest athletes in this draft despite limited ability to create offense for themselves. This group is seriously talented and it’s set up for a guy like Michael Porter Jr to slip to us whether he’s healthy or not. We’re not in a year when a .120 WS/40 prospect like Lonnie Walker is top 5 based off highlight reels.

I’m speaking consensus top 9 there. Personally I think Miles Bridges is an excellent prospect as he’s a three level scorer, a dynamic athlete, a good defender, and a plus rebounder. I have apprehensions concerning his height and wingspan relative to his position, but he’s taller and longer than PJ Tucker so I go back and forward on that front. If the Knicks took him at 9 I’d need to see him develop that handle more because he’s really a 2/3 more than he’s a 3/4.

He reminds a lot of a young Carmelo Anthony. He isn’t half the shot creator that Melo was at Syracuse but he’s similarly explosive off the dribble and can score on all three levels the same way. The big difference is Melo is a legit 6’8” while Bridges is a 6’6” guy. People see Vince, but again, Vince could dribble. He’s an interesting prospect but I like him. I’ve been flip flopping between him and Mikal Bridges as the 9th best prospect for the past week or so.

I think Miles Bridges is a 3 that can play some 4 when you go small ball. I’d be fine taking him at 9. He could maybe be an uber-athletic version of 1st year Landry Fields, lol.

I don’t think Knox will pan out, either, so I don’t want the Knicks to draft him, but he could work out.

I don’t know how the Suns hire Doncic’s Eurobasket coach and then take Ayton.

Same way you hire Mike D’Antoni and then sign Chris Duhon to run the point. (Some organizations are just perpetually bad at sticking to a plan).

In his defense Kevin Knox is younger than pretty much everyone in the draft except Jaren Jackson and he did improve a lot as the season went on. I don’t want the Knicks to take him unless they trade back but he might wind up surprising some people.

In his defense Kevin Knox is younger than pretty much everyone in the draft except Jaren Jackson and he did improve a lot as the season went on. I don’t want the Knicks to take him unless they trade back but he might wind up surprising some people.

Agreed on all fronts.

and carter’s ability on the pnr is an unknown… he might not be superb but it hasn’t exactly been proven to be bad…. it’s ‘projection’ based on his build and perceived foot speed…. that’s mainly due to how often duke played zone but college doesn’t exactly give you lots of opportunities to see bigs defend the pnr against quality ballhandlers…. that’s why most college bigs suck against the pnr when they jump to the pro’s… it takes everyone at least a few years to play it competently…

so carter might be bad against the pnr…. but it’s quite possible he’ll be sufficient.. and his offense projects to be good to the point where he could make offenses pay on the other end either on the low block or at the top of the key or just be a catch and shoot guy…. if you can make a top defense work with gasol or with favors as your pf’s then you can do it with carter…

and besides.. we shouldn’t be basing our decisions on whether or not we can keep up with the warriors or rockets or even Toronto…. by the time we theoretically could compete with them.. if at all… the landscape will probably change… and we should probably focus on being better than Miami or the wizards before even thinking about championship….

One thing I’ll say for Mikal is that at least he’s already pretty “coached up” so we don’t have to rely on our coaches to mold him (and not screw him up.)

KP posted some pictures of him working out and shooting. He’s recovering rapidly and already looks more muscular in his upper body.

KP’s recovery rate encourages me and also pisses me off because it means he’s gonna play this season and ruin the tank.

Now I think we should keep Lee for his veteran leadership and try for the 8th seed. hahaha

Seriously, I want him to come back this year with maybe about 20 games left. That will be long enough to see what he looks like, but since they’ll go very slow with him it won’t be enough time for him to have a major impact on wins. If he looks good by the end of the year, free agents will be willing to come the following year as long as they also see some progress with the other young players. If he doesn’t play at all, any chance of bringing in a legit star with available cap space the following year is pretty much shot.

On the other hand KP returning and looking bad coming of a torn knee could help us in contract negotiation.

I wish I knew more about college basketball. The draft seems such a fascinating subject. And many mistakes are made by many teams. Look at 2016. KAT went first and ended up justifying that pick. But Okafor and Russell, both of whom were highly touted, went next and are now barely in the league. We had hardly heard of Porzingis and he turned out to be a great pick at number four. In the next draft, Fultz was a consensus top two pick and actually picked number one and hardly played. In both drafts, after number 9 it was basically a crap shoot for the next ten players or so. And the players get so hyped it’s hard to trust anything you read about them. For this draft, I have read all the posts here, and all that I am really sure of is that the draft is at least nine players deep and there is no standout top pick this year the way there was with Towns. I trust the Knicks scouting staff, but I am not sure I trust our top management when it comes to evaluating picks. They don’t have a great track record from their days in Orlando and Sacramento and they seem to put more of a premium on points and less on defense than I would like. It is nerve wracking.

You are correct about the draft years. I was remembering the 2015 draft and thinking it was the 2016 one. I think 2016 wasn’t a memorable draft for me because the Knicks had no first round pick, so I skipped it mentally.

As for Fultz, I am not sure Simmons, or Embiid for that matter, is a good analogy. It’s taking a rosy view of Fultz that he had a injury and it took a while to recover. Some people think he just lost his shot. I don’t know which is true. If it was an injury and he’s recovered, I would agree with you that it’s too early too knock his pick. Actually, a lot about that draft is too early to tell. We still argue about Ntilikina and we’ve seen him play for a year.

I just saw an interesting factoid:

Trae Young was the most double teamed point guard in NCAA history last season. He was double teamed on 43.7% of his touches past half court. #2 on that list was Steph Curry at 31.4%. If he somehow falls to 9 I think you have no choice but to pick him. I don’t see how he gets past Orlando or Cleveland, but if somehow he’s there that would be a miracle.