Knicks Morning News (2017.12.27)

  • [NYTimes] The Fantastical Adventures of Fabulous Flournoy
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 7:21:47 PM)

    He is the beating heart of British basketball and his journey has taken him from the Bronx to Buckingham Palace. And, at 44, he is still going. “In his mind, age doesn’t apply.”

  • [NYTimes] On Pro Basketball: Who’s Fresher Than the Warriors?
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 2:38:30 PM)

    The outcome of the Christmas Day showdown with the Cavaliers was an apt reminder that the Warriors remain No. 1.

  • [NYDN] Knicks still don’t have return date for Tim Hardaway Jr.
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 11:16:05 AM)

    About three weeks after he was diagnosed with a stress injury, there’s still no timeline for Tim Hardaway Jr.’s return.

  • [NYDN] Jeff Hornacek says these Knicks won’t quit like last season
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 9:17:05 AM)

    With Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose dominating minutes at two positions — and often the ball — the Knicks quit last season.

  • [SNY Knicks] GEICO SportsNite: Knicks on tough upcoming schedule
    (Wednesday, December 27, 2017 12:03:22 AM)

  • [SNY Knicks] Enes Kanter: Knicks can beat ‘every team on every court’
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 11:35:42 PM)

    Knicks C Enes Kanter is maintaining confidence in his team as the Knicks prepare for a key three-game road trip.

  • [SNY Knicks] Jeff Hornacek provides Tim Hardaway Jr. injury update
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 4:34:39 PM)

    Tim Hardaway Jr. is still without a timetable to return, though is progressing in his rehabilitation.

  • [SNY Knicks] By the numbers: Joel Embiid vs. Kristaps Porzingis
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 4:00:17 PM)

    In the Knicks’ 105-98 Christmas Day loss to the Sixers, all eyes were on Kristaps Porzingis and Joel Embiid. So who won the matchup?

  • [SNY Knicks] Porzingis candidly speaks about shooting troubles, promises adjustments
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 2:50:54 PM)

    Kristaps Porzingis spoke candidly and maturely about his shooting struggles over his last nine games, promising improvements.

  • [NY Newsday] Knicks face tough road ahead — 16 of next 20 away from Garden
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 6:41:44 PM)

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  • [NYPost] Jeff Hornacek issues challenge to the Knicks’ two point guards
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 9:35:44 PM)

    The 76ers delivered the blueprint. Now it’s up to the Knicks to adjust — if they can. Sixers guard T.J. McConnell ruined Christmas at the Garden with his pressure defense, as Jarrett Jack and Frank Ntilikina struggled running the offense while being hounded by the reserve guard. Expect future opponents to do the same. “Even…

  • [NYPost] Tim Hardaway Jr. works on drills without a brace
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 8:48:57 PM)

    At least he’s not going backward. The stress injury to Tim Hardaway Jr.’s lower left leg is taking ample time to heal, but he is making progress, albeit slowly, it seems. Hardaway wasn’t wearing a brace on his left leg as he took jump shots, went through shooting drills and jumped off both legs after…

  • [NYPost] This is the year of James Harden — and the rip-off trades that weren’t
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 1:05:32 PM)

    On Dec. 25, 1947, a tradition was born. For the first time, an NBA game was played on Christmas, with the New York Knicks defeating the Providence Steam Rollers — one of the original 11 teams — 89-75. Twenty years later, the Christmas slate was broadcast on national television, so fans all across the country…

  • [NYPost] John Mellencamp and Meg Ryan have Christmas date at the Knicks game
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 10:46:53 AM)

    The two were seen at Madison Square Garden along with their sons.

  • [NYPost] We’re about to find out if these Knicks are a mirage
    (Tuesday, December 26, 2017 10:11:48 AM)

    The similarities are eerie — almost like looking into a mirror. A year ago at this time, there was optimism surrounding the Knicks, two games above .500 following a hard-fought Christmas Day loss at the Garden to a division rival. A tough three-game road trip was on tap. It became the precursor to a nightmarish…

  • 54 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2017.12.27)”

    A while ago, I talked about how I would game plan for Ntilikina if I were an opposing coach. Philly is the first team that followed that plan, which starts with getting in his grille in the backcourt to expose his weak ball-handling skills and lack of burst, mixing in some trapping. Most teams have let him dribble freely up to the midcourt line and beyond. Jack is a better ball-handler, but also has no real burst, so I’d do the same thing to him. even if he gets a step at midcourt, he’s easy to catch from behind. Neither guy shoots well enough to worry much about the midrange.

    This speaks to a glaring vulnerability, not having a guard that can disrupt a set defense or make you pay for pressuring the ball. Even though Hornacek wants to play uptempo, we’re not really a fast-breaking team. When you get exposed by guys like TJ McConnell and Ish Smith, it’s pretty obvious that teams should lock in on our PGs.

    Tonight’s game should be telling. We’ve lost 3 of 4 (beating a depleted and tired Celts team at home) and they’ve won 8 of 10 and have been playing very well.

    I think we should play Noah five minutes or so. I have no strategic reason for this, I just felt he brought a little luck in the only game he played, which was a road game, even though we lost at the end. I’m sure he’d love to play against his former team.

    I don’t get the Devin Booker hate. The guy just turned 21 and posting 24-4-4 on a 57% TS.

    Tonight’s game should be telling. We’ve lost 3 of 4 (beating a depleted and tired Celts team at home) and they’ve won 8 of 10 and have been playing very well.

    I was watching them play the Cavs the other day and I just don’t how they’ve put it together so quickly. I guess Mirotic has just turned the page now that it is “his” team, maybe? Seems hard to believe. And they’re doing all of this without Zach LaVine! And Kris Dunn is still learning.

    Jerian Grant is having a pretty good season.

    Kanter: .640 TS% on 21 USG%
    O’Quinn: .608 TS% on 18 USG%
    Lee: .582 TS% on 17 USG%
    Doug McBuckets: .582 on 14 USG%
    Be-eazy (one of the worst names in the league, btw): .555 TS% on 30 USG% (!!!)

    And then there’s Porzingis. Why are we always blaming system for underperforming volume shooters when there are plenty of players putting up great efficiency on moderate USG%?

    We’ve got 5 players besting our “franchise player” in OBPM, 6 in ORtg.

    You’re having a different argument. I’m not making the age-old assertion that if you made him a 3rd option his efficiency would skyrocket.

    I’m saying his shot selection in indicative of the poor coaching and offensive systems he’s playerd in for three seasons, and poor efficiency is a product of that bad shot selection.

    Most importantly, I’m of the mind that he’s young enough for that to improve if we get a system in place sooner rather than later.

    I watched him try to cross over Embiid and shoot a terrible contested long 2. If he did that under poppovich he’d have been yanked from the game. Likewise if he played for Houston I guarantee his shot chart would have dots in different places on the court.

    The fact that Hornacek knows how to utilize Kanter correctly within an offense and doesn’t have him standing in the corner instead of under the rim doesn’t mean he isn’t grossly misusing Porzingis.

    I’m not putting all of it on Jeff. But as a young player we need to stop letting him take the easy route.

    I’m not putting all of it on Jeff. But as a young player we need to stop letting him take the easy route.

    Yeah, Horny seems to be willing to go the lazy route a few too often. “It’ll be hard to make them shoot more threes, so let’s just give up on that idea.”

    @4

    The hate was when he was shooting a .530 ts% and contributing literally nothing outside of points but was touted as a future star because points.

    At a .575 ts% he’s a valuable player.

    I’m not making the age-old assertion that if you made him a 3rd option his efficiency would skyrocket.

    I’m saying his shot selection in indicative of the poor coaching and offensive systems he’s playerd in for three seasons, and poor efficiency is a product of that bad shot selection.

    Most importantly, I’m of the mind that he’s young enough for that to improve if we get a system in place sooner rather than later.

    One of the things I’m learning is that things often don’t fit into nice neat boxes and that models can’t capture everything that’s going on.

    1. Watch any Knicks game. Once a possession starts to break down, they give it to KP. Then he tries to create something. That often ends with a totally trash shot. Even good offensive teams like the Rockets have bad possessions. If he was 2nd-3rd option, that would happen to him less often because the burden would shared by the better players. His efficiency would rise a tad.

    2. If we had PGs that could break down the defense and kick it out to him for more open looks from 3 and/or they could shoot well from outside and execute the P&R better he’d get more dunks we’d have a better system and be more efficient.

    3. If he understood shot selection better and learned to make passes that actually got good shots for teammates he’d be more efficient.

    4. If he didn’t have Lance Thomas and Jack/Frank on the court with him a lot of the time, it would be harder to help and double team him.

    Each one of these things and perhaps others are all impacting his efficiency in small and hard to measure ways. Some of it you can actually see on the court and notice because it happens so frequently and some of it is just good strategic basketball knowledge.

    I don’t get the Devin Booker hate. The guy just turned 21 and posting 24-4-4 on a 57% TS.

    Booker is a good offensive player. He might become really good bc he’s so young and does so much stupid shit. His TS might regress a bit this year since he’s shooting 54.5% on long twos which is not a thing. At a more normal low to mid 40s his TS drops to 55%. Still, he’s a good offensive player and he’s only 21. But he is a legit terrible defender. He’s got to improve to just pretty bad or it’s going to really put a lid on his value.

    It’s crazy that the Bulls are one of the hottest teams in the NBA and their record is still 11-22.

    And of course that 2nd rounder we got from them keeps dropping )-:

    But when he was a .530 TS% player he was 20 years old and playing 35 mpg as a #1 option on a terrible team.

    What’s interesting is that per 36 compared to last year, he’s averaging +1.0 fgm on +1.1 fga, and +0.7 3ptm on +1.7 3pta. The change in his shooting attempts and makes is small, but relevant. He essentially is taking slightly less low percentage 2’s and slightly more similarly low percentage 3’s, and cashing in on the extra point.

    @13

    I understand that, and I agree with you, all I’m saying is there were legitimate reasons to dislike his game and his overall production.

    One of the things I’m learning is that things often don’t fit into nice neat boxes and that models can’t capture everything that’s going on.

    1. Watch any Knicks game. Once a possession starts to break down, they give it to KP. Then he tries to create something. That often ends with a totally trash shot. Even good offensive teams like the Rockets have bad possessions. If he was 2nd-3rd option, that would happen to him less often because the burden would shared by the better players. His efficiency would rise a tad.

    They have a lot less bad possessions. I don’t watch the rockets daily, but I’ve seen them enough times to say confidently that they end up giving the ball to Harden in bad position at the top of the key and force him to create a lot less often than we end up doing it with Porzingis.

    It’s clear Porzingis would rather stand in mid range territory and shoot a bad shot over a smaller player than get down in the paint where he isn’t as comfortable. IMHO, the coaching staff needs to be whipping him to either get to the rim or shoot behind the arc. They’re not doing that.

    It was probably vastly detrimental to his development that he began his career in a 90s offense that encouraged him to take those shots. But it’s not irreversible.

    Bleacher report has a suggestion that the Knicks trade O’Quinn to Milwaukee for DJ Wilson and Rashad Vaughn. They are both young first round picks (both #17 picks). One is 21 and his option was declined by Milwaukee. The other is a recently drafted power forward. Otherwise I don’t know much about them. I really don’t see what it does for the Knicks, but it does suggest the league considers O’Quinn worth trading for, and it would be good for us to trade one of our big men.

    the article also says Clarkson is available and having a great year, I dont know anything about him but he fits our timeline and $11m is reasonable for a pg

    Clarkson is a chucker who can barely shoot threes and is very overpaid, I would stay miles away from him.

    He’s still 25 but will be 28 by the time his contract is over, so this is likely his “prime” contract so to speak.

    On the other hand, I like Rashad Vaughn. He’s still 21, is a decent shooter and is a decent athlete. I don’t think he and Wilson are worth O’Quinn without a pick added, though.

    I don’t think that KP is shooting poorly only because of the way he is being utilized. And I disagree that he’s often a bail-out option. He misses plenty of good looks, and makes some very difficult shots, so those balance out. Right now he has the typical high-volume, low-efficiency profile. Some like to euphemistically refer to guys like him as “rhythm” shooters.

    What separates these guys from the high volume, high efficiency shooters is that you don’t have to foul him to slow him down. He doesn’t have that one unstoppable move to play off of and can’t finish through good help defense, and he’s a good but not great 3-pt shooter. 31% of KP’s shots are between 3-10 feet, and he’s only shooting around 52% from there. For Jokic, it’s 48% and over 60%. For Towns it’s 58% and over 60%. To improve his efficiency, he has to 1) take less long 2’s and more 3’s; 2) make more of his shots within 10 feet.

    With regard to KP’s rebounding, I’d like to see him imitate Chandler with tip-outs, but that would require him playing off the ball and staying inside more. It doesn’t help that our guards suck and that he might just wind up getting in Kanter’s way.

    To improve his efficiency, he has to 1) take less long 2’s and more 3’s; 2) make more of his shots within 10 feet.

    This is describing the disease without addressing what’s causing it. It’s kind of like saying if I want to feel better I have to stop getting hangovers. 🙂

    It’s a bunch of things related to himself, the players he is playing with, and the offensive schemes that are causing him to take those bad shots and not make some of the better ones as often as he should.

    Mario Hezonja is an UFA this coming offseason. Should we roll the dice if he keeps up his recent play? I think we could get him at the mid level exception for a few years (8 or 5, depending on whether or not we’re over the cap, which I can remember if we are or not.) He fills our position of greatest need and if he’s for real is highly versatile, but his d is lacking.

    I think we should if we can’t find one in the draft at our spot.

    The only other young SF options in FA that look compelling are Jerami Grant, an UFA, and Kyle Anderson, who’s an RFA but might be able to be pried away from San Antonio if their cap situation is complicated (is it?)

    San Antonio has a pretty ok cap situation because Parker’s 15 million expire this year. They’ll probably be just under the cap assuming Gay and Green pick up their options, so I don’t see them letting Anderson walk away unless it’s a big offer.

    I would like to take a flyer on Hezonja, I think there’s something to be said about young guys in terrible developing situations like Orlando. The Knicks will be under the cap next year even if Kanter, Baker and O’Quinn all pick up their options, so we should be able to offer the full non-taxpayer MLE, which is 8.4 million iirc, even without renouncing McDermott’s rights.

    @26
    good article, something we already know, Kp should start at center and kanter should back him up

    When the Knicks first announced THJ had a stress reaction, I thought to myself that means broken leg in English. Turns out I was right.

    kyle anderson is actually exactly what we need… we need more ppl who can create shots for others at just about every position….

    @31

    I agree with that wholeheartedly, but we’re gonna have to throw THJr type money his way. Is he worth it? I think probably in a vacuum, but it’s a hard sell to me to cap ourselves out into a starting five of Frank THJr Anderson KP and Kanter for the foreseeable future

    well, thankfully we’re catching the bulls after coming off a 3 game road trip – hopefully they’ll look a little shaky their first game back home…

    watched their game against the bucks (wow, that’s a seriously under performing team there)…the bulls play a really good team game – helped by the fact that kris dunn is having a breakout season and mirotic is pretty unstoppable at the moment…

    ought to be interesting…

    When the Knicks first announced THJ had a stress reaction, I thought to myself that means broken leg in English. Turns out I was right.

    I was dubious about him playing any time soon when I thought he just had plantar fascititus, but yeah, a fucking stress fracture? Even if they’re not officially calling it that. Ugh.

    San Antonio has a pretty ok cap situation because Parker’s 15 million expire this year. They’ll probably be just under the cap assuming Gay and Green pick up their options, so I don’t see them letting Anderson walk away unless it’s a big offer.

    I would like to take a flyer on Hezonja

    I would actually like to take a flier on Parker.

    Dude’s played in a small Texas town his whole life. Maybe he’d like to spend his twilight enjoying NYC while splitting time with & mentoring his French successor.

    We got a pretty good return for investing in Jason Kidd’s twilight. Upgrading from Jack to Parker could do a lot next year.

    Melo had his best season with Kidd basically bossing him around. Maybe Parker can do the same for KP. It’s something he sorely needs.

    @26, @29 Something seems strange with those on-off stats. I can’t accept the conclusion that Kanter and KP should not be on the floor together. In theory, they complement each other well. They shouldn’t occupy the same space on offense , and KP’s rim protection should help mitigate Kanter’s defensive issues, while Kanter can guard opposing bigs well enough to keep KP out of early foul trouble. I checked on 82games.com, and the lineups where it’s Kanter, KP, Lee, Jack, and either Lance, Hardaway Jr or Mcdermott (382 minutes) are +63 overall, with those lineups having a .040-0.60 eFG advantage over opponents.

    If anything, I’d be inclined to believe that the issue isn’t with Kanter and KP together, it’s with the other 3 guys on the floor with them.

    well if he’s actually the type of player the numbers suggest he is then… i would say yes very much so… if you think he’s just a product of the spurs system and he’s worse than his numbers suggest and/or isn’t as good with 30+ minutes then probably not….

    i *think* it’s the former…. although i don’t watch enough spurs game to say for sure… i do know that talented passers can play in just about any system…. and are the most difficult to find….

    and then that goes to your main question… is that enough? probably not…. but obviously plan A is to get a great player in that slot… but a great player is probably not going to be available… at least for that kind of money… so plan B is to identify young players who might turn into that… and i think slomo qualifies….

    is it making the ecf next year? probably not… but i think that it would be in the discussion of top 5 young rosters in the league…. which would be quite an achievement in itself…

    i *think* it’s the former…. although i don’t watch enough spurs game to say for sure… i do know that talented passers can play in just about any system…. and are the most difficult to find….

    But is he a talented passer? His asst% and turnover% are about equal (see: Ntilikina and Baker). Most of his shots come in the paint, half are assisted, and he hardly ever shoots 3’s. Is his D as good as the stats suggest? Really hard to tell.

    Don’t get me wrong, it’s possible that he plays even better without Pop’s shackles on him. But it’s definitely a question mark.

    i don’t really go by assist%/tov% since they are using different denominators…. per 36 is generally good enough…. and i think just by looking at him play that he generally makes good decisions with the ball….

    they are fair questions tho…. i don’t think he has superstar ability but he can be a rather valuable glue guy….

    the main point of that article was that the Knicks are -18/100 when kanter plays without KP (which btw I happened to post on here yesterday), not that they shouldn’t play together. Lineup combos have to be taken with a grain of salt at tiny samples (the kanter ex KP lineups are sub 300 minutes), but kanter lineups have always flailed when he doesn’t have a really strong big like KP or Adams in the game. it probably has some truth to it, but lineup data is a profressional foolmaker. Speaking of which, it’s weird to attribute melo’s 12-13 to Kidd since he actually had notably better #s w prigs on the court.

    I like Kyle Anderson but it is hard to totally dismiss the spurs question. he does a lot of things well and is a pretty good defender. Definitely the kind of player I prefer to TH2. risky at his likely market price probably.

    Can Davis Bertans play SF? I would love to have him on my team, and I bet he could be gotten for less than Anderson. He’d also be great in the PF slot next to KP at C, but the rebounding would be awful.

    I think I would throw the money at Anderson if it didn’t come with the THJr bells and whistles (player option, trade kicker). But I also think Jerami Grant is gonna get little money offered to him this offseason, so he might be a good buy low candidate. Or you can shoot for the moon with Hezonja. I think any of the options is acceptable. Either way, if we are gonna spend money this offseason, it really needs to be on a SF.

    @41
    the point is that Kanter sux
    “So, in summation, here’s where the Knicks are with Kanter:
    — His individual numbers, intangibles, and effort are terrific.
    — He is an excellent teammate.
    — The team plays better when Kanter is on the bench.
    — Porzingis plays slightly better when Kanter is on the bench.
    — The Knicks are awful when Kanter plays and Porzingis doesn’t.”

    there are going to be decent options in the draft for SF types…. obv can’t really depend on them but FA looks to be bare for awhile….

    Kyle Anderson was basically UCLA’s point guard when he was in college, so it’s possible he could have more of a playmaker role.

    In other surprising but only somewhat basketball related news, Laura Dern and Baron Davis are dating! 1. Awesome. 2. Who would’ve ever thought this would be a thing?

    Baron Davis is cool, but Laura Dern was dreadful in every scene she had in the new Star Wars. Reminded me of a rich, white Portland mom giving an inspirational speech to the PTA about the benefits of non-GMO vegan school lunches.

    Kyle Anderson is a solid player on a rookie contract, but his ceiling is 2nd-unit wing part-time playmaker. As important as those guys are, they’re not worth the money they’re getting as free agents. Spend that money on buying 2nd rounders and try to get your own cost-controlled Anderson for $5M over four.

    That Laura Dern character did not need to exist at all. That plotline and the Finn plotline were both completely extraneous.

    The Finn and Rose plotline definitely sucked, but I found the Holdo-Poe situation intriguing for many reasons.

    Luckily Laura Dern is in plenty of other movies other than Star Wars where she’s anexcellent actress, preserving the coolness of this celebrity partnership

    Kyle Anderson is a solid player on a rookie contract, but his ceiling is 2nd-unit wing part-time playmaker. As important as those guys are, they’re not worth the money they’re getting as free agents. Spend that money on buying 2nd rounders and try to get your own cost-controlled Anderson for $5M over four.

    Gotta give you props here, you were very high on KA at draft time, and he has delivered very good value for when he was drafted. I was expecting a less sober assessment of his current value from you.

    Luckily Laura Dern is in plenty of other movies other than Star Wars where she’s anexcellent actress, preserving the coolness of this celebrity partnership

    Agreed, now I need to watch Blue Velvet for the 420th time

    the Knicks are -18/100 when kanter plays without KP

    How many minutes is this, and what percentage of them involve a starting lineup of Kanter, LT, and the Bease?

    KP’s better numbers without Kanter might be attributable to the Knicks going small in the fourth and forcing teams to adjust. The difference there could easily be situational.

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