2017 Recap: Pistons 102, Knicks 89: Optimist Friendly Version

Carmelo Anthony 24pts, 18fga, 2reb, 1ast, 2to, 4stl, 0blk,
A++
Melo was so vintage, he switched into a Orangemen jersey midway through the third. After 24 points on 17 shots and a quadruple of steals, I’m shocked they didn’t play the national anthem after the game and give ‘Melo another gold medallion.


Kristaps Porzingis 18pts, 18fga, 6reb, 1ast, 0to, 0stl, 1blk,
A

While the stats say Porzingis had an mediocre night, and my eyes said he looked labored out there, my heart says he is a golden god sent to us from the heavens to fulfill the prophesy.


Joakim Noah 2pts, 4fga, 12reb, 8ast, 1to, 0stl, 2blk,
A++

Van Gogh was just giving it away (ha!) with 8 assists on the night. Imagine how many triple-doubles Noah will drop once both cauliflowers are healthy?


Derrick Rose 19pts, 17fga, 5reb, 2ast, 2to, 0stl, 1blk,
A++++++

Rose had a beautiful layup against two Pistons, one being Drummond (1.9 blk/36), in the first quarter. He showed world class athleticism, leaping ability, and touch on that play. On the next possession he grabbed the offensive rebound and sent an overhand pass halfway across the court for an open Melo three. A few plays later, he stuffed a driving Ish Smith.

I don’t care what else Rose does, this one series shows he will lead us in the Finals when the time comes. The only question left to answer is: Rose or Clyde?


Courtney Lee 7pts, 7fga, 2reb, 2ast, 2to, 0stl, 0blk,
A

Often I look at the screen and have a tough time figuring out which is Lee and which is Rose. If you google image search Courtney Lee, and I’m not kidding, pictures of Derrick Rose show up in the results. So I’m not the only one.


Lance Thomas 2pts, 6fga, 4reb, 0ast, 2to, 0stl, 0blk,
A

Do you open a bottle of fine wine and immediately start drinking from it? Of course not. You have to wait for aeration. Lance Thomas is our New York Cabernet Sauvignon. You can’t expect much right away, it’s not something you want in large quantities, and it’s much easier to swallow after you’ve already had 6 glasses of wine.


Brandon Jennings 12pts, 10fga, 2reb, 3ast, 0to, 0stl, 0blk,
A++

Jennings’ drive to the hoop & dump to Porzingis in the 2Q had me so pumped, I instantly dropped and went for my personal record in push-ups. Unfortunately I was so psyched I lost count after 6, and have no clue how many I actually accomplished. Let’s just assume I did 46.


Maurice Ndour 3pts, 2fga, 2reb, 0ast, 0to, 1stl, 1blk
A+

On Ndour’s first possession, he pulled a Balkman cutting on the baseline without the ball, and flushed home a perfect pass from Jennings. On his first defensive possession, he grabbed a defensive board. If you judge Ndour by stats, you’re missing the whole picture.


Justin Holiday 0pts, 1fga, 3reb, 0ast, 0to, 0stl, 1blk
A++

If there was one basketball feat I would like to accomplish before I die, it’s block a shot and pin it on the backboard like Holiday did.


Willy Hernangomez 0pts, 0fga, 1reb, 0ast, 1to, 1stl, 0blk,
A++

There were a few times I had to chase the kids around the house. Willy’s 5 minutes must have been one of those times. So he gets an A++ by default.


Kyle O’Quinn 0pts, 1fga, 2reb, 0ast, 1to, 0stl, 4blk,
A++

With four blocked shots, including a pair in the fourth quarter. KOQ is showing he’s a defensive force, and anyone who thinks otherwise obviously doesn’t know what the hell they’re talking about.


Sasha Vujacic 2pts, 2fga, 2reb, 1ast, 0to, 0stl, 0blk,
A++

What can you say about Sasha? The gift that keeps on giving.

Liked it? Take a second to support Mike Kurylo on Patreon!

Mike Kurylo

Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

92 thoughts to “2017 Recap: Pistons 102, Knicks 89: Optimist Friendly Version”

  1. I blame this one on the refs and Hornacek. There was at least one incident where they could have called a foul on Drummond, but they didn’t and it’s obvious Hornacek doesn’t know how to manage Noah’s offense. How is it possible this much talent can under-perform so soon?

    The only logical explanation is Phil Jackson, by sacrificing a few early games, is lulling opponents into a false sense of security. After the ASB, the triangle will be second-nature and we easily sneak 3rd. into the playoffs. Phil is a genius!

  2. Btw, I love Noah’s hustle, stamina, defensive instincts and impeccable ear dressing, but what has really impressed is his totally selfless play: no matter how close to the basket he finds himself, he’s always looking to pass, looking to involve his team mates, even when they are not in a position to shoot. Man, this the chemistry and character Phil has been talking about!

  3. lol, thanks Mike. You forgot about Rose’s leadership, he already wants Thibs back and that’s a great way to build chemistry with his current coaches and Phil Jacksons. Instead of A++++++ he should get A++++++++

  4. On a more serious note they look like a perfectly mediocre team. Melo is good but no longer borderline all star caliber. Rose is probably a bit better than his stats which makes him blah, just like Lee. Noah shows flashes but he’s nowhere near the player he was when younger.

    Porzingis? I wish they stopped buying into the unicorn crap. He’s 7’3”, he should play near the basket and not running around chasing quick 6’8” guys on the perimeter.

    The bench is basically QOK and Jennings. Whatever.

  5. “Rose bucket with 5:40 to play cut the Knicks deficit to 94-89. That was the last points of the night for the Knicks.”

    How Sway?

  6. I think it is weird that Rose cited Thibs last night, but I also think it is lame of Isola and Berman to try to make it a huge thing. Rose is just a weird guy. You can’t read too much into his words.

  7. Also re Melos D. It was bad. Morris was also hitting very very tough shots mostly in the first half.

    Harris, Morris and KCP finished 24-37 from the field including 8-12 from 3. 66 total points That’s a team wide level of suckage on D.

  8. As a team the Knicks were great on defense for this game, but the sample size of this one game just wasn’t enough to tell how great they were in this one game. Defense: A++++

  9. Any team where Lance Thomas is expected to play *any* meaningful role outside garbage time is a bad team.

    No way to polish these 12 turds and 3 cubic zyrconias.

  10. Big issue coming out of last night’s game for me was our problems guarding bigger wings. Depth in that spot was an obvious area of concern coming into the year, and with Lance playing like trash it’s only becoming a bigger issue. Harris and Morris made some tough shots last night, but they also got a lot of easy ones, and I’m not sure what the solution to it is: Lee and Holiday are too small to check those guys, Kuz is a defensive zero, and Melo has not looked spry so far this year.

    Ndour maybe? I like his hustle but he practically plays C on offense – despite that nice cut and flush I just don’t know if he’s an NBA player on the offensive end at this point. If it’s not him, then it really has to be Lance or Melo stepping up. Porzingis has also looked really shaky guarding out on the floor so far, and it makes me very worried about the structure of this team. Noah, Zinger and Melo are our 3 best guys and supposedly the foundation of this team for the next 2-3 years, and yet they don’t really look like they can play together defensively against anybody playing small. Given where the league is headed that seems like a problem.

  11. I think this game also demonstrated the lack of efficient players. We have no one currently in the rotation that I’d expect to come close to a .600 ts% (unless you count Wily at 7 min a game, which I don’t).

    However, I think a lot of the rookies could fix this (Wily, Baker, Kuz, Ndour).

    In all seriousness we need Ron Baker.

  12. Noah, Zinger and Melo are our 3 best guys and supposedly the foundation of this team for the next 2-3 years, and yet they don’t really look like they can play together defensively against anybody playing small. Given where the league is headed that seems like a problem.

    That’s been my biggest “Huh?” aspect of the whole thing (my biggest “Why?” of the whole thing is “Why not just rebuild?”, but I at least understand why Jackson would prefer not to rebuild), that Jackson insists on going big while everyone else is going small. Particularly when Melo could still be an excellent 4 and Porzingis could develop into a prototypical modern NBA 5.

  13. There is a place in the Knicks future for Baker, Willy, NDour, Randle, Plumlee and Hooper. Plus KP obviously. The future is very bright!

  14. Has Rose assisted on a Porzingis basket yet or nah?

    Last night he assisted on a Porzingis layup. I dunno about the other two games.

  15. Also re Melos D. It was bad. Morris was also hitting very very tough shots mostly in the first half.

    Harris, Morris and KCP finished 24-37 from the field including 8-12 from 3. 66 total points That’s a team wide level of suckage on D.

    I know it’s one game and three guys, but isn’t doing a bad job defending the three a long term issue with the team? I seem to remember it being an issue when Fisher was the coach.

  16. The pistons were only 8-13 from downtown as a team last night. That’s fine-they just hit some shots.

  17. I’m sure this will all get worked out once this team learns the triangle about halfway through the season.

  18. In his prime Noah could at least get you the occasional basket. Right now he looks like he couldn’t put the ball in the basket if you gave him a ladder.

  19. That’s been my biggest “Huh?” aspect of the whole thing (my biggest “Why?” of the whole thing is “Why not just rebuild?”, but I at least understand why Jackson would prefer not to rebuild), that Jackson insists on going big while everyone else is going small. Particularly when Melo could still be an excellent 4 and Porzingis could develop into a prototypical modern NBA 5.

    I’m most concerned that the problem is only going to get worse as Melo continues to age. I remember 3 years ago we were saying that he was actually better defensively at the 4 because physicality has never been a problem for Melo – quickness and chasing guys around are his issues. I suspect that’s even more the case now, although we haven’t gotten a long run to see how Melo holds up at the 4 defensively recently. But he was giving up some straight line blow-bys to Tobias Harris last night. That’s…not great.

    I know we have all raved about Olympic Melo in the past, but I’m having my doubts that it’s going to be a positive impact this year. At 32 years old, maybe he needs more rest+a dedicated physical program to get in shape, because Melo just doesn’t look great physically so far.

  20. I don’t understand why we didn’t hack-a-Drummond in the fourth quarter. We were down about 8 points and he’s the worst free throw shooter in history. Can one of you smart guys please explain?

  21. Noah’s a career sub 40% shooter from anywhere outside the basket. He should really never shoot. I was against that signing, but I am interested in watching him-he’s like a gigantic Rondo now.

  22. I don’t understand why we didn’t hack-a-Drummond in the fourth quarter. We were down about 8 points and he’s the worst free throw shooter in history. Can one of you smart guys please explain?

    Dunno. I agree that they should have tried it at least once or twice.

  23. In fairness the defense in the 4th quarter (and the whole 2nd half) was perfectly fine. I don’t know if going to Hack-A accomplishes that much when you only gave up 16 points in the quarter without it. Sure it slows down the game, but it makes the most sense to go to it when the other team’s offense is clicking. That wasn’t the case down the stretch.

  24. You can see the structural problems the offense is going to have. Noah cannot score at all and Lee is a low volume guy, so Melo, Rose and Porzingis have to carry the offense more or less by themselves. None of those three is probably going to be racking up a .550+ TS% and one of them is probably even money to crack .500. There are just not enough easy buckets out there. The main scorer off the bench is Lance Thomas.

    The other three of the Four Factors (besides eFG%) don’t look super promising for NYK either– they should be a decent but not great offensive rebounding team, they’re probably not going to be an elite FT/FGA team, and they probably won’t be much better than above average in turnover percentage. I’m just not seeing the path to a good offense here.

  25. I kind of disagree with a lot of what’s said here. I agree with the fact that the offense sucked (although I think the defense was far worse, and that’s saying something), but it was mostly due to playing iso-heavy triangulation-type plays with stupid/inefficient telegraphed passes that took to long and mostly ended in contested shots anyway.

    I think I saw too much of that slow dumb triangle type play.

    Also, people weren’t getting good shots because of it, and people weren’t hitting shots they used to. Also, the lineups SUCKED. A lot.

    I put this more on Hornacek/Phil’s influence than on the players. Maybe too many starters weren’t up to date with Hornacek’s drills or plays. I dunno. They will probably get better with time.

  26. So do you think that there is something to what Isola and Berman are suggesting? That Jackson was irked that the Knicks got away from the Triangle on Saturday, so insisted that they go back to it last night, despite the offense being much better on Saturday? Is Jackson seriously that dogmatic?

  27. 4 years ago, there were also way more big dudes playing the post.

    four years ago you had the following big strong dudes playing power forward: Zach Randolph, David West, Nene, Kevin Garnett, Boozer, Pau Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Love

    Now, who’s left? The stretch list is Karl-Anthony Towns, LaMarcus Aldridge, Love, Gasol, Tristan Thompson

    And of the guys on both lists, all but Gasol play a much more perimeter oriented game these days than they did 4 years back.

    At 6’8″ and 240lbs, Melo is now bigger than most starting power forwards…

    The big issue it looks like we’re gonna face for the next couple years without big changes is that hwile you can get away with one slower player at forward, you can’t get away with two, so if KP isn’t ready to primarily be a center, our defense is gonna be screwed until Melo or KP are moved or Hornacek adapts the rotation so they’re rarely out there together.

  28. I didn’t get to watch that game last night but it sounds like it was a good one to skip. I would really hate to think that PJ would be upset that we won our home opener (and won it so soundly). I know we only won by 7 but we were in control from the get go of that game and PJ said he brought hornaceck in to be the coach and have his own system with triangle elements. Considering Rose missed most of training camp you would hope PJ would want them to play to their strengths and implement the triangle when they were ready and as much as Horns sees fit for this team. If not, then it is a real problem. I’ve been a PJ supporter from the get go but if this is the case, him being upset after a win bc it wasn’t done with the triangle, then I don’t know. With Fisher I didn’t mind the meddling bc I didn’t think Fisher was a good coach overall. But I really trust Hornaceck and his hiring put more faith in PJ for me. So if this is true, its very disturbing. BUT, I could also see the media blowing this out of proportion. Yes Detroit didn’t have Reggie Jackson but they are still a good team and you’re playing them on the road early in the season. The vultures need to give this team at least 20 games before tearing them apart.

  29. On Melos defense, its odd because last year was his arguably his best defensive year and he doesn’t look much different physically.

    I don’t think he’s fallen of a cliff athletically just yet.

  30. The Olympics might legitimately have been an issue for him. Not to mention that he’s getting to the age where every year could be “the” year things tail off. In the NBA, it tends not to be a gradual decline.

  31. I think Noah is gonna come off the bench around year 3 of his contract allowing Kris to play the 5.

  32. @37 Possibly. This also goes against the narrative that post olympic Melo is him in his best shape.

  33. Houston is gonna scorch us tonight huh

    Agreed on seeing more Melo/Zing at the 4/5. Wonder if it would be beneficial to stagger minutes so that either one of Melo/Noah is on the floor at all times. Maybe Noah being with the bench unit would be better for ball movement also

  34. Can’t really say that the Piston’s offense was anything to write home about either, it was basically is0-Morris and iso-Harris and last night it worked out for them. Those two are good one and one players, but I can’t imagine that’s going to be Stan’s game plan night after night. I would assume that when Reggie Jackson comes back their offense will be more fluid.

  35. The Olympics might legitimately have been an issue for him. Not to mention that he’s getting to the age where every year could be “the” year things tail off. In the NBA, it tends not to be a gradual decline.

    Yeah but it’s November 2nd. Let’s let him play into shape.

  36. swiftandabundant: I’ve been a PJ supporter from the get go but if this is the case, him being upset after a win bc it wasn’t done with the triangle, then I don’t know. With Fisher I didn’t mind the meddling bc I didn’t think Fisher was a good coach overall. But I really trust Hornaceck and his hiring put more faith in PJ for me. So if this is true, its very disturbing. BUT, I could also see the media blowing this out of proportion.

    It’s not a big problem regardless. At this point, I think Phil loses any power struggle with Hornacek. This is his 3rd full year, and the Knicks have been pretty awful throughout his tenure and other than Porzingis, he hasn’t done much to give the Knicks a brighter future. He’s now hired two coaches. Given his age and physical issues, he couldn’t have planned to stick around much longer anyway. The Knicks can opt out of his contract this summer. I’d say if the Knicks don’t make the playoffs, he’s gone. Even if they do, there’s a 50/50 chance he’s gone.

    kevin5318: On Melos defense, its odd because last year was his arguably his best defensive year and he doesn’t look much different physically.

    Yeah, you’re right. He was good defensively last year at least according to tracking stats. On/off court stats put the Knicks eFG% defense 10 points worse last season with him on the floor though so maybe it was a case of him not rotating consistently enough for NBA tracking stats to call him the primary defender. My impression watching him play is that last season he was solid inside as usual but still struggled dealing with screens and closeouts.

  37. @42 Thats supposedly what the Olympics were for lol.

    But yeah lets give him 20 games or so before he’s labeled a completely liability on D.

  38. Last night’s result is colored by the Pistons shooting really well from downtown. If we’d lost on the road to the Pistons by 6 points would people be less upset? The Pistons are probably a better team than the Knicks are, and if Melo and Porzingis shoot a bit better these are games we can win, even with Rose playing like Rose. That’s if you want to be optimistic, but still realistic.

  39. Last night’s result is colored by the Pistons shooting really well from downtown. If we’d lost on the road to the Pistons by 6 points would people be less upset? The Pistons are probably a better team than the Knicks are, and if Melo and Porzingis shoot a bit better these are games we can win, even with Rose playing like Rose. That’s if you want to be optimistic, but still realistic.

    Sorry but esp. with no Reggie Jackson that’s the type of game they need to win if they want to make the playoffs. The Knicks were the more talented team last night

    Last night’s result was also colored by the Knicks not scoring in the last five minutes of the game

  40. The team looked real good on defense when Holiday replaces Lee with the starters.

    Nobody overhelps and they fight over screens much better. I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re calling for Holiday to start soon. Starters need defense and bench needs shooting.

  41. The dream of a lower usage Derrick Rose is probably not going to happen. The way this offense is structured, it is set up so Rose pretty much has to have a USG% over 25.

    So far Melo, Porzingis and Rose have taken 140 of the teams 242 FGA. That is 56% of the entire team total. There is not really any way to redistribute those shots to other players– Noah at this stage of his career is a comically low-usage player (and you don’t want him shooting anyway) and Lee has been a low-usage player his whole career. It’s not like there is a scorer on the bench who you can put into the lineup and ask to take some of the scoring load.

  42. You can redistribute those shots by not playing Rose, who is probably not good. But I’m waiting 17 more games.

  43. someone said we dont have a consistent scoring; i disagree, his name kuz and he should be playing, only lights out shooter we have…also looking forward to having our ‘utility ‘man back in Baker.

  44. Sorry but esp. with no Reggie Jackson

    I actually think that hurt the Knicks. Jackson would have taken some of those Harris/Morris possessions.

  45. Isn’t it a bit late for April fools’ posts Mike? Nice troll job though, I laughed a few times.

  46. Thanks for the recap, Mike. I have to say I appreciate having the box score up there, even if there won’t be time for an actual write-up/grades every game.

  47. Houston, at MSG, should in theory be a winnable game. Yes, their offense is tough to stop but good lord are they a bullshit defensive team. James Harden and Eric Gordon are the starting backcourt, Ryan Anderson is the “power” forward and Clint Capela is the only rim protection they have on the entire roster. They’re not even really pretending to play any defense.

  48. Morris hit some ridiculously tough shots on great Melo defense early, but then he and Harris had two blow-by’s when Melo got into them more. Melo also had a few individual possessions where he got the steal or stop. KP had some series issues with Harris, and the Pistons look to be pretty good offensively this year.

    Knicks half-court defense wasn’t good, but wasn’t horrible either. Transition 3s are very tough to defend, and that’s where Detroit had the biggest advantage.

    Knicks have to better on offense and have to make a higher percentage of open shots.

  49. great recap mike…for those of us living and dying by a knickerbockers box score – very apropos…god it’s been a rough decade and a half or so…i think maybe the most painful part is when you start feeling any hope ripped out of your heart by discouraging performances like last night…

    it’s saul goodman, it’s really gonna be okay…really, it’s gonna be okay…

    on a much more positive note – very cool to see ufc 205 going off at the garden this weekend…

  50. I guess I’m just still confused as to what Jackson was envisioning when he put this team together. Rose finds himself off the ball a lot, maybe because of Melo, or the triangle, or both. It’s hard to tell exactly why, but that’s a role he’s just never going to do well with. Even in his peak of peaks he wasn’t someone who could derive a ton of value solely from scoring. He was valuable because he could score at a high volume with decent-ish efficiency AND was a very good playmaker. On this team he doesn’t have a lot of playmaking opportunities and doesn’t exactly jump at them when they do present themselves. He’s functionally useless if he isn’t scoring well, which happens more often than not at this point in his career. The issue of there being too much heroball and the issue of having a point guard who averages two assists per game are not independent of one another.

    I said this in the morning thread. Seems like Phil acquired Rose with the idea that he’d be more of an off ball guard, which is just nuts to me. I’d switch him with Jennings in the starting lineup. For all of Jennings’ faults he does look to pass and is actually pretty good at it, and if we’re relying on Rose to make an offensive renaissance we might as well try him as the clear lead guard with the offensively depraved second unit.

  51. Thanks for the chuckle Mike K. I know I hardly comment, but I wanted to express my gratitude for when you guys write up funny recaps.

  52. I’d guess he imagined Rose being something like Alexy Shved was for his brief Knicks run. Their stats except FTr are were pretty similar.

  53. I really think we need to play Porzingis half the time at center. Even against an elite player like Drummond, Porzingis gains as much on offense as he gives up on defense and rebounding. Drummond would be in real trouble with a Melo, Porzingis combo at the 4/5. He would get eaten up by either one trying to guard them on the perimeter. You use their quickness to try and get bigger centers in foul trouble and beat them with your speed. Plus defensively Porzingis can hold his own against most centers because of his length. The only real downside, and it’s a big downside is rebounding with a Melo/Porzingis frontcourt but it’s worth the trade off in my opinion.

  54. My last comment last night was about how we sucked at finishing that game. I was upset because it was a string of mental mistakes.

    * The rotations were idiotic. Putting 5 non-scorers on the floor at the same time is dumb.

    * Hack-a-Drummond. I agree with Reub on this. WTF? The guys shoots 35% from the line. Put him there. That’s what guys like Ndour and O’Quinn are for.

    * Lance Thomas looks so lost. Can’t shoot. Can’t pass. Just totally lost.

    * Noah can’t shoot and nobody is going to guard him. When they leave him alone like that he needs to drive and kick.

    * KP must’ve not had a good night sleep. He disappeared. He got hot for a few minutes but Hornacek sat him down to cool off (duh!)

    * Melo was completely outplayed by Morris at both ends of the floor.

    * Rose needs to start racking up assists. He’s not right now.

    So, MLB game 7 or NBA game 3? Which should we be paying attention to?

  55. Baseball makes me want to stab my eyes out so I’ll stab my eyes out watching the Knicks instead

  56. Baseball makes me want to stab my eyes out so I’ll stab my eyes out watching the Knicks instead

    Last night I swear I changed the channel after a pitch, watched the Knicks and the Pistons trade baskets, and then turned back to baseball and watched the next pitch.

  57. Ended up watching the replay of the game last night, despite knowing the score (sucker for punishment and there was nothing on TV). When it’s all said and done, the issues we are seeing aren’t too unexpected, but are also fixable.

    The defence sucked in the first half, but to keep them to 38 points in the second half was much better effort, so it was good to at least see there was an adjustment made there. Rotations (outside shitty shooting in the second half, but hey some nights you are hot, others you can’t buy a bucket) for me are probably the biggest issue. Given we are only 3 games in, it’s not too unexpected that we don’t have a set rotation at the moment, but it would be good to see a bit more balance in the lineups. I think Lance’s nil factor on offence so far has thrown a bit of a spanner in the works with the second units offence.

  58. Longtime knicks fan (1988) and lurker here. First post. I love reading this blog, even with the “friendly” sparring.

    Quick (earnest) question — looking from some nuance between the so-called stats and eyeball guys.

    Last night DRose had a sequence in which he threw up a shot, missed, stole the ball back, put up another miss, got his own rebound, and then scored. Stats-wise that’s a 1 for 3 sequence and probably hurts his shooting percentages, etc., but eyeball-wise, I want that guy on my team.

    I’m not saying Rose does this a lot. I honestly haven’t seen his game enough yet, and he definitely threw up some clunkers, but does it make any difference that he got that bucket on what is essentially the same trip down the floor?

    In hard numbers, the answer is obviously “no”, but those two misses seem qualitatively (if not quantitatively) different from, say, killing two consecutive possessions with two misses.

    Not trying to re-start a fight. Just want your thoughts.

  59. Last night DRose had a sequence in which he threw up a shot, missed, stole the ball back, put up another miss, got his own rebound, and then scored. Stats-wise that’s a 1 for 3 sequence and probably hurts his shooting percentages, etc., but eyeball-wise, I want that guy on my team.

    Pretty much any advanced stat would give him credit for the steal and the defensive rebound (and, of course, the eventual score), which would mark that possession as a net positive.

  60. Last night DRose had a sequence in which he threw up a shot, missed, stole the ball back, put up another miss, got his own rebound, and then scored. Stats-wise that’s a 1 for 3 sequence and probably hurts his shooting percentages, etc., but eyeball-wise, I want that guy on my team.

    Steals and offensive rebounds are heavily weighted in most “all-in-one” stats, so he’d be penalized for the missed shots and rewarded for the additional possessions.

    Ideally, you want a basketball player who puts the ball in the first time they try. I don’t see how that’s hard to argue against, particularly since the best players in the league tend to be good at that.

  61. CJ – but doesn’t this point to the fallacy of stats to some degree. You say ideally they make the shot the first time but if they get their own rebound and make it then why the hell does it matter? The result is the same. This was a melo thing where he would miss a shot but get his own rebound a lot and then make it and get fouled. So his shooting percentage takes a hit but he got a rebound and caused a foul so that’s good, no?

  62. Thx for the response,

    But his TS% takes a hit, no?

    Of course. Which is fair, right? He missed two out of three shots, so he gets knocked for that in one aspect of most advanced stat tracking. If he gets enough offensive rebounds and steals, though, it can outweigh the two misses in most advanced stat tracking, which is also fair.

  63. Of course. Which is fair, right? He missed two out of three shots, so he gets knocked for that. If he gets enough offensive rebounds and steals, though, it can outweigh the two misses in most advanced stat tracking, which is also fair.

    Sure. Understood. It just seems some misses are much worse than others in context. For example, Melo had a sequence in which Morris (I think) blew by him for a bucket, so Melo came right back down the floor, didn’t even look at anyone else, and just chucked up a missed three. Eyeball-wise, that seemed all about ego and kind of deflated the team going forward. It’s hard for me to equate Melo’s miss with Rose’s miss that he puts back in.

    Of course I know these things must statistically even out over a longer sample.

  64. You say ideally they make the shot the first time but if they get their own rebound and make it then why the hell does it matter? The result is the same.

    Do I really need to explain this? Do I need to explain how some basketball actions have higher probabilities of success than others?

  65. I watched most of the Warriors vs. Trial Blazers last night and the one inescapable conclusion that I came to was that both of these teams are light years ahead of the Knicks. Unfortunately NY is mediocre at best.

  66. A poker analogy:

    I have pocket aces and show them to you. You have 2-7 offsuit and show them to me. You go all-in. I call you. The cards come out and you get a full house. The fact is that you won, but can you evaluate the decision to call as a smart one, simply given the outcome?

  67. If ever there was a night to play a Baker/Holiday backcourt this is it. Holiday is the only guard with a prayer of slowing down Harden and Baker is probably as good a matchup against Gordon as Rose or Jennings. Also a great game to see plenty of KP at the 5! Make it happen Hornacek!

  68. @77 this is kind of a weird statement. They were both playoff teams who returned the whole team cores. And GS added Durant and subtracted Barnes and has 2 mvps under thirty. What the hell is your point ?

  69. Of course I know these things must statistically even out over a longer sample.

    That pretty much is the answer.

  70. My point is that even their bench guys are quite a bit better and they are a lot deeper with good players. In addition to all of the negativity on this board, I think there is still a lot of overvaluing of the talent level, myself included. NY has a LONG way to go to get even close to these teams. That’s what my “weird point” is.

  71. Yes you do be in the scenario just talked a bout the outcome was successful. And your poker analogy is interesting BBC you focus on the stats when everyone knows that the human element of bluffing is just as important. If I’m a good bluffer and can fool you then it’s a good decision every time.

  72. My point is that even their bench guys are quite a bit better and they are a lot deeper with good players. In addition to all of the negativity on this board, I think there is still a lot of overvaluing of the talent level, myself included. NY has a LONG way to go to get even close to these teams. That’s what my “weird point” is.

    That’s really the big problem with the team – they went “all in” to get a mediocre team filled with older players. That’s just not a smart idea. They’re better than they looked last night, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them go off on the Rockets tonight at home, but they’re also don’t look like a particularly good team, either. And that’s in year one when most of these guys are ostensibly at the peak of their collective value!

  73. You say ideally they make the shot the first time but if they get their own rebound and make it then why the hell does it matter? The result is the same.

    Both those sequences of plays produce identical results-2 pts for your team. It doesn’t matter. Over a long term, though, the other team is going to rebound some of your misses

  74. To further your poker analogy. I bluff on a crappy hand and win. Its risky but hey I’m a good bluffer! So now you are gonna be less sure the next hand if I have a crappy hand or not. I bluff again with. A bad hand and win. Now you’re really annoyed. So the next hand I’m going all in you think this dude must be bluffing but boom I have a good hand and win again.

    My human element has beaten your cold statistical element. :)

  75. Both those sequences of plays produce identical results-2 pts for your team. It doesn’t matter. Over a long term, though, the other team is going to rebound some of your misses

    Also, it is not the same to rebound your own miss, where you can almost instantly put it up again with a high percentage shot, than getting a long offensive rebound which nets you an average possesion.

  76. No problem. It’s pretty refreshing to see someone concede a point in the face of empirical evidence that directly contradicts it. Doesn’t happen every day here!

  77. To further your poker analogy. I bluff on a crappy hand and win. Its risky but hey I’m a good bluffer! So now you are gonna be less sure the next hand if I have a crappy hand or not. I bluff again with. A bad hand and win. Now you’re really annoyed. So the next hand I’m going all in you think this dude must be bluffing but boom I have a good hand and win again.

    My human element has beaten your cold statistical element. :)

    This analogy does not have anything to do with decision-making as I laid it out.

    I said we show each other our hands and you go all-in with a 2-7. This is a bad play. Whether you win the hand has nothing to do with the decision at the time to play 2-7 all-in against pocket aces.

    I was creating the simplest possible scenario in which we could talk about the difference between a longshot decision (bad play) and a win (outcome).

Comments are closed.