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Sunday, December 16, 2018

Knicks Morning News (2018.09.21)

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks shouldn’t mortgage future for Butler; sources say Minnesota wants more than Knicks can realistically offer
    (Thursday, September 20, 2018 2:15:08 PM)

    It’s good news for the Knicks and their fans that Jimmy Butler lists them as one of his three preferred destinations, but they shouldn’t mortgage their future to trade for him now.

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks on potential Jimmy Butler trade: ‘We don’t want to jump at shiny things’
    (Thursday, September 20, 2018 11:30:10 AM)

    In the wake of Jimmy Butler demanding a trade and listing the Knicks as one of his three preferred destinations, the Knicks are not preparing to deviate from their plan.

  • [NYPost] This Knicks regime is different and it’s just what franchise needs
    (Thursday, September 20, 2018 4:02:05 PM)

    A few days after the Knicks drafted Kevin Knox with their first pick of the 2018 draft, team president Steve Mills heard a complaint. “The guy who delivered my dry cleaning to our building didn’t like our draft pick,” Mills said during a pre-training camp press conference Thursday at Madison Square Garden. “He made me…

  • [NYPost] Knicks heaping praise — not millions — on Porzingis for now
    (Thursday, September 20, 2018 1:25:19 PM)

    Knicks brass is paying off Kristaps Porzingis in encouraging words rather than extra millions. The Knicks have until mid-October to give Porzingis a $158 million contract extension but are not planning to do so. At Thursday’s press conference, Knicks president Steve Mills and GM Scott Perry said Porzingis understands the predicament. Brass has taken great…

  • [NYPost] How Jimmy Butler’s power move could seriously backfire
    (Thursday, September 20, 2018 11:49:44 AM)

    MIAMI — Jimmy Butler knows that NBA players can force their way into trades. Forcing their way into a trade that suits the player, that’s an entirely different story. Butler has told the Minnesota Timberwolves that he has no intentions of re-signing with the club next summer, his way of saying “trade me now” or…

  • [NYPost] Knicks still figuring out Joakim Noah’s final days with team
    (Thursday, September 20, 2018 9:07:19 AM)

    Knicks general manager Scott Perry said he’s hoping for a “resolution” to center Joakim Noah’s sad stalement soon, which is expected to be a waiver/buyout under the stretch provision. There has been no effort to bring Noah to training camp, which starts Monday. Team president Steve Mills said 17 players worked out Wednesday — a…

  • [NYPost] Knicks respond to Jimmy Butler trade request with restraint
    (Thursday, September 20, 2018 8:53:34 AM)

    Knicks president Steve Mills gave no indication he’ll be “shifting’’ his strategy and be hot on Jimmy Butler’s trail, despite the star putting the franchise on his wish list Wednesday in his trade demand. Mills reemphasized his Monday remarks the Knicks won’t go out of their way to chase free-agent-to-be players by giving up serious…

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    55 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2018.09.21)

    1. Hubert

      This is exactly why you’re wrong Hubert.
      You’re fixated on rebounding when it’s only 1 of the 4 factors.
      Per cleaningtheglass – the Knicks had a 94th percentile defense (DRTg 101.8) with KP on the court and Kanter/KOQ off. The reason they were so good? Because teams can’t freaking score on KP when he’s guarding the cup. The Knicks gave up an eFG of 44% (99th percentile) with KP playing center. The Knicks were flat awful at rebounding (10th percentile in ORB-against) and even worse at FTR-allowed (1st percentile and not in a good way), but add that all up and an eFG of 44% still leads to a 94th percentile defense.

      The difference between the best rebounding team in the league (PHI TRB% 52.9%) and the worst (Dallas at 47.4%) is only about 5.5% of available rebounds. There are roughly 90 rebounds available per game so that means the very worst team will be outrebounded by 5 boards per night. Not every “Extra” rebound will lead to a shot, and not every shot will go in. Let’s just say for argument’s sake 5 extra rebounds leads to 4 extra shots and that leads to 5 extra points per 48 minutes. And that’s comparing the BEST team to the WORST team. The Knicks weren’t the worst rebounding team with KP (10th percentile).

      The average eFG in the league was (visually) about 52% (PPP ~ 1.04). the best was GS at 56.9 and the worst was PHX at 49.5. Last year — the Knicks with KP at center (without Kanter/KOQ) kept the opposition to an eFG of 44% (0.88 PPP). In each 48 minutes there are nearly 100 possessions, so if KP were theoretically able to play all 48 minutes it would be a difference of 16 points per 48 minutes between a KP-led eFG-against and an average offense.

      Rebounding is only 1 of the 4 factors.

      A couple things:

    2. Hubert

      1. re: Rebounding is only 1 of the 4 factors, this was my point. Rebounding was being completely dismissed when discussing Porzingis’ defense. I’m not overweighting it to say it makes him a bad defender, I’m just saying (and I’ll go back to my original statement):

      he’s an elite rim protector, but rebounding is one of the four factors, and he’s a terrible rebounder.

      Do you disagree? My point here was when considering whether or not to give him a max, we shouldn’t ignore the impact of his poor rebounding. And it’s one of many things in favor of not giving him a max (although it’s probably the least, and it’s significantly behind his health and his inefficient offense).

      2. As for your stats, they’re great and I’m always open to revising my belief when evidence says otherwise. But this isn’t the whole picture. You kept everything on a possession level. Giving up extra possessions mitigates the impact of limiting opponents points per possession. We need to know just how many extra possessions the Knicks give up with Porzingis playing without a rebounder like Kanter or O’Quinn.

      You sort of addressed it in the section I highlighted above in bold, but that was a hypothetical. And also in that example, you’re talking about 4.4 extra points per game (5 possessions at 0.88 ppp), which is an extremely large number that you casually dismissed. 4.4 points is almost the difference between the 10th best defense in the league (Detroit at 107.3 points per 100) and the 29th (Cleveland at 111.7).

      I’m sorry I can’t look it up myself, I don’t have a cleaning the glass subscription and I’m not familiar with how to get lineup specific stats like that. But that’s the evidence we need to see to get a clear picture of precisely how much his rebounding woes mitigate his rim protection, not just stats that exclusively on a per possession level. I suspect it’s not an insignificant factor.

    3. Quilla

      I will make my position official and open to future ridicule: Porzingis is not a max-salary player and does not have the potential to be one for the simple reason he is often injured, can’t play well for a full season, has a shitty attitude and his performance when he has been good is nice, but not superstar-like.

      He is more Bargnani than Nowitzki.

    4. swiftandabundant

      @ 3 – shitty attitude?

      Please don’t tell me you’re one of those people who wanted Phil Jackson gone and thought he was a horrible GM but nevertheless thinks Porzingis is a diva bc he skipped an exit interview at the end of PHil Jackson’s reign.

    5. Hubert

      (I apologize in advance if my post shows up three times; the site said I was posting comments too quickly and putting them in moderation or something)

    6. alsep73

      We just signed another player, which means Noah is likely to be cut before camp begins so we can get down to the 20-man limit.

    7. Hubert

      it’s the largest contract they can possibly give him and also the only contract they can possibly give him, because if he comes back seeming healthy, someone else will give it to him. this is Carmax not auto nation. Suggesting we should sign him for a discount (other than a fake Carmelo type discount) is suggesting nothing at all. We pay or we don’t. admittedly, there is a small sign and trade possibility, but that’s a longshot.

      Milo this is not true. No other team can offer him 5 years at 25% of the cap each year.

      The max another team can offer him is 4 years at a salary that starts at 25% of the cap and (I believe) is limited to ~5% annual raises, i.e. 4 years ~$108mm.

      That’s the contract the Utah gave Gobert.

      That’s the contract Milwaukee gave Giannis.

      That’s the contract I’m suggesting we should give Porzingis because he’s not even as good as those guys let alone so much better that he deserves to make more than them.

      That’s not a lowball offer. The only reason to give him a 5 year max is to kiss his ass.

    8. Hubert

      Where I am disagreeing with you is the idea that KP is far far away from being a max caliber player and that no team with a “smart” GM would give him a max.

      lavor, this is a slight misread of my statement.

      Strat said every GM in the league would give KP a 5 year supermax without hesitation. I didn’t mean to say that no smart GM would do that. Just that the teams with the best GMs (Golden State, San Antonio, Boston) have shown that they don’t operate this way.

      Golden State has already proven what they would do in this situation. If KP were on Boston I think there is no chance Ainge would get the max coming off the ACL injury.

      It’s not that no smart GM would do it. Just that the best GMs in the league would not throw away all the leverage they have in a negotiation just because they want the player to be happy. You can find a way to pay him, not insult him, and keep the team in position to keep acquiring talent. We’re unlikely to do that, and it annoys me.

    9. ptmilo

      the numbers you are looking for look like this, but the sample sizes are too small to draw conclusions.

      since KP and KOQ have been on the same team the knicks have identical DRB% whether KP plays without KOQ/Kanter (3949 minutes), with KOQ (821 min) or whether KP is off the court (6113 minutes). It is 75.2% or 75.3% in all cases. They were better defensively with KP/KOQ (1.076) than just KP (1.09) and worst when KP is off (1.13).

      since KP and Kanter have been on the same team (last year) they have the best DRB% with KP/Kanter (78.3% 978 min) and were at 76% with KP both without Kanter/KOQ (242 min) and without KP (~2400 min). Despite this, they were much better defensively when KP played without KanterKOQ (1.044) vs. 1..11 when KP played with Kanter/KOQ (~1200 min). When KP did not play the opponent scored 1.144. In the 812 minutes where Kanter played without KP their DRB% was 76 and they gave up a somewhat difficult to believe 1.193 PPP, this is actually the second worst defensive episode in history to Jowles’ lawyers negotiating his prenup protection rights to his premarital knickerblogger-related intellectual property.

    10. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      Strat said every GM in the league would give KP a 5 year supermax without hesitation.

      I think if he was on any other team in the NBA right now (including Boston) he would be offered the maximum they could offer him at that time as soon as this season ends assuming he proves he can stay injury free and his game is picking up right where he left off.

      Rebounding is a TEAM effort in some ways just like regular defense. Role matters. If your role is to be on the perimeter and/or to defer, you will get fewer rebounds. That does not mean your value is diminished because boxscore metrics can’t measure what you are doing instead.

    11. ptmilo

      That’s the contract I’m suggesting we should give Porzingis because he’s not even as good as those guys let alone so much better that he deserves to make more than them.

      that is not the argument i thought you were making. if it is (i.e. you would support offering the max another team could pay), it’s much different than the impression I got; i.e. you were arguing that no way is KP anywhere near a max player and he should get a lot less. whether we offer 4 years or 5 years is a largely tactical question, since there is a risk he signs an offer sheet for the same amount that is annoyingly structured with little details like trade kickers and the pa announcer being required to announce janis every night. it seemed like you were making a much more salient claim.

    12. Bruno Almeida

      Did you guys read the Berman article on this?

      It seems Mills and Perry are talking with KP in order to re-sign him when his contract expires instead of extending him, which would save cap space.

      I think that’s a pretty good plan if you ask me. More time to see what he really deserves, could help with cap space if something good comes up.

    13. Hubert

      that is not the argument i thought you were making. if it is (i.e. you would support offering the max another team could pay), it’s much different than the impression I got; i.e. you were arguing that no way is KP anywhere near a max player and he should get a lot less.

      I suggested offering him 5 years at a fixed dollar number ($27mm annually) so we could take advantage of the rising cap in future years. I would obviously like to get him for less (I think his value right now is around $17mm annually, but I know we can’t pull that off), but I think we have to at least leverage something like that instead of going full max to keep him happy.

    14. GianaDani

      Bruno, @12, 100% spot on; that’s in line with Millls & Perry strategy of long term employment. Don’t bet your job on anyone for as long as possible. Pass on Doncic, Butler, Kyrie, Leonard, DeRozan, etc…in the name of we’re not ready, need to still keep developing our youth and not being measured by wins & losses.

      Fans are so terrified that management will make a poor decision so they are eating up this it takes time to built it the right way approach.

    15. Cock Jowles, #1 Purveyor of Wanton Chuckery

      I’m just going to stop posting altogether. Now that GianaDani is here, you can just read her posts and then assume that I’m taking the completely opposite position.

    16. Hubert

      Rebounding is a TEAM effort in some ways just like regular defense. Role matters. If your role is to be on the perimeter and/or to defer, you will get fewer rebounds. That does not mean your value is diminished because boxscore metrics can’t measure what you are doing instead.

      Porzingis is at the rim on defense, Strat. I’m not talking about offensive rebounds. He’s the big. It’s his role to get the defensive rebounds. There’s a trickle down effect if you have to compensate for him.

      You can get a flawed guy like Kanter who gives up a lot on defense. You can get a flawed guy like O’Quinn who gives up a lot on offense. Or you can pay a premium for a complete center like the old Chandler, but now you’re costing yourself money that you need to use for another position, so by compensating for his inability to rebound you now have to get an inferior shooting guard because you’re paying a premium for an all around center.

      And if that’s what you have to do, well then by definition you’re not talking about a max player. You’re talking about a guy who you need to compensate for, so you gotta take something off his salary. If you don’t, you’re creating a fatal flaw somewhere. This is all I’m saying.

    17. Hubert

      By the way, the other day I said having a center who can’t rebound is like having a point guard who can’t dribble or a shooting guard who can’t shoot.

      Today it occurred to me that we have Kristaps Porzingis, Frank Ntilikina, and Tim Hardaway Jr.

      Sigh.

    18. chrisk06811

      why are you guys arguing? cheer up….we just signed jeff coby. dude went to columbia. or he’s from columbia. i’m not really sure

    19. Owen

      “Pass on Doncic, Butler, Kyrie, Leonard, DeRozan,”

      One of these players is significantly younger than the rest….

    20. Frank

      You sort of addressed it in the section I highlighted above in bold, but that was a hypothetical. And also in that example, you’re talking about 4.4 extra points per game (5 possessions at 0.88 ppp), which is an extremely large number that you casually dismissed. 4.4 points is almost the difference between the 10th best defense in the league (Detroit at 107.3 points per 100) and the 29th (Cleveland at 111.7).

      To be clear I said that 5 extra rebounds would probably yield 4 extra shots which charitably would lead to 5 extra points per game at a 1.25 PPP rate — whereas when KP plays center without Kanter/KOQ, his effect on opponents’ eFG is so large that (~8% below the league average) that that would lead to 16 fewer points per game. No doubt that 5 points per game is a lot, but the 16 point difference per game would be much greater than the difference between the worst and the best defense.

      It’s all semantics anyway – I agree with you that we should try to get him on something like a 4/108 or 5/135 contract. It’s just a question of whether Mills and Perry can get him to agree that that’s a good idea.

    21. rama, king of superfluous poppycock

      Both the numbers and the eye test show that KP has an enormously positive impact on defense. He’s so dominant inside that his weak rebounding is something worth compensating for. If he were a stiff on offense, he’d be worth $15m a year. But he’s not – he’s, at the least, ok. So paying for promise is really about whether a coach who isn’t a bonehead uses him effectively enough to make him a max player. I’m highly optimistic.

      Frankly, the only reason we should not offer the max is his somewhat troubling health – not just the knee, but the endurance.

    22. Jack Bauer

      “No rebounds, no rings”

      Pat Riley thinks rebounding is pretty important and he know a little about hoops.
      So yeah, I agree, KP not rebounding is a pretty important deficiency.

      @17 You’re not officially a Knickerblogger until Jowles hits you with a personal insult. Welcome aboard!

    23. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      Porzingis is at the rim on defense, Strat. I’m not talking about offensive rebounds. He’s the big. It’s his role to get the defensive rebounds. There’s a trickle down effect if you have to compensate for him.

      I don’t have the data to measure the impact his role has on his defensive rebounds, but he certainly spends more time on the perimeter defending other stretch PFs than the typical 7’3″ C. So there must be some impact.

      There are other things going on too.

      We saw it when Robin Lopez played in NY. His own stats say he’s not a good rebounder, but the team rebounded really well when he was on the court because he’s apparently so good at boxing out that became his role. The value of the rebound itself accrued to whoever got it and Lopez got no value in his own boxscore even though he helped create it.

      Sometimes you’ll see 2 guys standing in position to get the rebound. It’s close to 100% that either of them could get it, but one is always aggressive and the other tends to defer.

      Sometimes the plan is to allow a certain player to get all the extra marginal rebounds because he makes great outlet passes or can run the break on his own.

      These things are difficult to measure, but the boxscore pretends they don’t exist.

      I think we all agree that Porzingis is not a good rebounder and that makes him less valuable than if he was. We are really just discussing how much of his stats are him, how much is his role, and how much of an impact will that make on the team’s chance for success.

    24. Ingmarrrr

      If KP was 28, or even 25, then yeah, his deficiencies would merit a lower salary. But at 22 he had that magnificent October-November stretch where he made the Knicks the most fun team to watch in the NBA.

      That stretch did exist. It did not get wiped out because the rest of the season was worse, then much worse.

      So you consult with your doctors and if you conclude that KP would be fully healthy at any point in the next 2 years, you have to take the gamble and do everything you can to keep him. It’s a no brainer.

    25. Hubert

      @23 I’m not against paying for promise. Just against paying the most you can possibly pay for promise.

      If we play our cards right, we can have a core next year of Kyrie, Porzingis, Knox, Frank, Mitchell, and one of the Duke studs. More importantly, we could find ourselves in position to supplement that core with ~$20mm in cap space in the summer of 2020 (if we stretch Hardaway). And if we don’t stretch Hardaway, and the cap continues to increase at the same rate or higher, we’ll find ourselves with ~$30mm in cap space in 2021 (although Frank would be a FA and cut into that). This is why I think it’s so important to not overpay now.

    26. Brian Cronin

      I mean, seriously, with his injury history, what are the odds that Porzingis takes a qualifying offer? Not very likely, right? Next, what are the odds that he’s amazing for the four years of his contract and then decides to walk away from the Knicks after four years? Also not particularly likely, right?

      So why wouldn’t you just let him sign an offer sheet and then match it?

      “You better give us a 5-year deal with the biggest raises possible, or else we’ll just take a qualifying offer a couple of months after a year-long injury that some players never fully recover from!” It’s not much of a bluff.

    27. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      Pat Riley thinks rebounding is pretty important and he know a little about hoops.
      So yeah, I agree, KP not rebounding is a pretty important deficiency.

      I think team rebounding is very important, but I think individual rebounding stats are probably overrated and easier to replace than some other skills.

    28. ptmilo

      So why wouldn’t you just let him sign an offer sheet and then match it

      sure that’s a reasonable argument (although I would bet against it actually happening that way IRL). but if someone thinks that offer sheet is going to be one cent less than the max assuming he plays a few hundred minutes looking like himself they are kidding themselves.

      KP is a big risk as a max contract whether it is four years with a bunch of shitty but mostly trivial clauses or five years. he certainly hasn’t yet been a max player yet. I thought there was an interesting argument between people who thought it was a terrible bet and we should offer something way less. and I thought those suddenly mythical people were refusing to answer what that implies: you lose KP for nothing bc he will not take a Steph Curry deal you demand and someone will absofuckinglutely pay him. To me that’s worth talking about (and I pay him wihout agonizing at all but drink that night).

      but if the debate is really between whether we should try to get a slightly better deal, I mean, sure that’s reasonable and thing to discuss in September I guess but it’s about 99pct less interesting to me.

    29. Bruno Almeida

      @28

      I agree completely, that’s why I liked the plan of not offering him an extension at all. Play out this year, see what happens. If he’s either great or terrible, it’s an easy decision, offer him the max of let him go. If he’s somewhere in between, negotiate a contract with him next summer, and if he refuses to sign for whatever reason match whatever offer comes and see what happens. Matching instead of extending him offers almost 10 million+ in cap space to next summer, so it’s objectively better than the extension.

      The only argument against this is him feeling “disrespected” or something like that, and I’m totally on Hubert’s side on this one. Who cares? If he wants to be respected as a no questions asked, instant max player he can play like a max player and earn that. I keep repeating, but teams like the Celtics have traded away their legendary stars and let them expire without any guilt and it has changed nothing. Players care about money and winning, they don’t give a fuck is Porzingis or Janis feel “disrespected” by a very good, non-max offer.

      The Knicks have to stop operating like a small market team. Sacramento or Memphis should worry about disrespecting their non-star players, not the Knicks. Make the best basketball decision, period. If that’s eventually giving a max to Porzingis then do it. But don’t do it because of random intangible assumptions when there’s even evidence they don’t matter.

    30. Hubert

      but if someone thinks that offer sheet is going to be one cent less than the max assuming he plays a few hundred minutes looking like himself they are kidding themselves.

      To be clear, even I don’t think that.

      This whole time I’ve been talking about maxing him, I mean at the 5 year rate that could total between $150-190 million, which only we can offer. The generic 4 year, ~$100mm offer that even Otto Porter got, yeah, everyone would do that.

    31. Frank

      I mean, seriously, with his injury history, what are the odds that Porzingis takes a qualifying offer? Not very likely, right? Next, what are the odds that he’s amazing for the four years of his contract and then decides to walk away from the Knicks after four years? Also not particularly likely, right?

      So why wouldn’t you just let him sign an offer sheet and then match it?

      I can’t think of a single time that a team did that to a player of KP’s stature. (I might just have a bad memory).
      The reason for that probably is that it would really piss the player off.
      I think the best course of action is to come up with a Giannis/Gobert-like offer and convince him that that’s how a contender can be built around him. Janis has said on multiple occasions that $ is not everything to KP — it’s easy for him to go ahead and prove that.

      The real issue is — while it is true that RFA is right of first refusal and that he would be contractually tied to the Knicks, it doesn’t prevent KP from doing a Kyrie-Cavs with 2 years left on his deal. And as soon as a player does that, your leverage is shot, so it’s not even like you would get a fair offer. That’s always the threat – player is annoyed but signs the contract, gets their $$ first, then makes trouble.

    32. Frank

      Play out this year, see what happens. If he’s either great or terrible, it’s an easy decision, offer him the max of let him go. If he’s somewhere in between, negotiate a contract with him next summer

      as far as i can tell that is what Mills/Perry’s plan is right now

    33. Hubert

      I can’t think of a single time that a team did that to a player of KP’s stature.

      Yeah, you don’t let another team make an offer first. But you go into the negotiation knowing the most another team can offer and make him a fair offer that’s above that but below the max. Like 5 years, $125mm. Good for Porzingis, good for the Knicks. Everyone should be happy.

      When the cap goes up to $118mm like it’s projected to in 2020, now he’s only making 21% instead of 25%.

    34. Z-man

      What about the possibility that if he does not receive a max offer and feels rejected, that he accepts the QO next year, becomes a UFA and the Knicks lose him for nothing?

    35. Bruno Almeida

      But if he’s angry with the Knicks not offering him a max, why wouldn’t he accept an offer from another team? There will be plenty of teams with cap space next summer and one of them is surely offering him a max somewhere down the line. Then if he refuses to play with the Knicks after they match, then you can trade him for something at least.

      Going for the qualifying offer with a major injury on his resume + other concerns about his durability / conditioning just seems absolutely insane, if he rejects every other offer and the Knicks offers for this he’s absolutely crazy. It’s a gamble I’m willing to take to be honest.

      I don’t want the Knicks to just not offer him anything, I want the Knicks to offer him a very large contract. If he’s offended so much by a 4 year 100 million offer to accept the qualifying offer just to fuck up the Knicks the most he can, then good riddance for him I guess.

    36. DRed

      By the way, the other day I said having a center who can’t rebound is like having a point guard who can’t dribble or a shooting guard who can’t shoot.

      Today it occurred to me that we have Kristaps Porzingis, Frank Ntilikina, and Tim Hardaway Jr.

      Too real.

      With respect to Krsitaps, he can rebound. He is below average. If you play him 30 minutes a night you’re losing out on about a rebound per game compared to an average center. That’s not good, but it’s definitely something you can work around as a team. We had Andrea Bargnani-that’s what a big who can’t rebound looks like.

    37. Brian Cronin

      What about the possibility that if he does not receive a max offer and feels rejected, that he accepts the QO next year, becomes a UFA and the Knicks lose him for nothing?

      With his injury history, taking a QO right after he comes back from a year-long injury that not every player even fully recovers from would be pretty crazy, wouldn’t it?

    38. english_knick

      I’ve said this before but the thing that really pisses me off is that we’re having to make the call on KP when he’s yet to play with a competent point guard or in a competent system, and after allowing him to be ‘mentored’ by Melo.

      All the concerns people raise on this site about him are legit. My personal guess is that he has the ability to play like a legit max player if healthy. He’s an elite three point shooter with a good handle for a big and a decent finisher at the rim. Though he’s not a good rebounder, his overall impact on d suggests he’s at least very good on that end. A guy who is very good on both ends is as much of a max player to me as, say Kyrie or Lillard who are terrible on D and yet roundly accepted as max players.

      But I could definitely be wrong. What if he’s permanently addicted to running off screens to shot contested long 2s? To know this little about your supposed franchise centrepiece’s real long-term potential at the point of making the contractual decision is idiotic. We should have been working this stuff out since the day he was drafted but instead we did the win-now with melo, play the triangle thing and now we’re out of time. This is just one of the many reasons that no amount of competence from Mills or Perry can get us quickly out of the mess we’re in.

    39. Z-man

      It would be, but it would make it so that he can sign wherever he wants and not worry about the Knicks matching the offer. I doubt that it comes to this (because the Knicks will gladly overpay him) but we’re talking about a guy who already told other teams when Phil was up to his stupid ruse that if the Knicks traded him he will wait until he becomes a UFA and signs where he wants to.

    40. Brian Cronin

      That was before the major injury, though. I think the injury is a game-changer in terms of his leverage.

    41. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      KP’s ACL injury also took away all of his leverage in terms of “I’ll just take the QO and leave.” The Knicks and KP seem to understand that it’s in the best interest of both parties to wait until July to sign a contract, and that’s forward thinking. They want to surround KP with 3 years worth of lottery picks and 1-2 major free agent additions, and Porzingis wants to get paid and play competitive ball. Nothing really to see here.

      My money is that Porzingis doesn’t get a max, but something close to it so that we can add big guys around him, and then we throw the supermax at him for his 3rd contract.

    42. Donnie Walsh

      I can’t think of a single time that a team did that to a player of KP’s stature.

      Does the name Jeremy Lin ring a bell?

    43. Bruno Almeida

      I just don’t see a player entering his prime, that has been treated extremely well in New York for 3 seasons, do something like that. He apparently disliked Phil and Horny and both are gone, everything the Knicks have done is say he’s the superstar that this team will be built around, and that’s before he has shown superstar production aside from a 15 game stretch.

      Porzingis has no right to demand a max extension and he’s gonna look foolish and petty if he goes through all the trouble of playing on a qualifying offer to spite the Knicks. Just look at how the public opinion is shifting on Butler, with a lot of people blaming him for the whole Wolves situation even more than Thibodeau’s terrible GM decisions.

      The Knicks should do exactly what Dallas did to Noel. Wait until his contract expires, then offer him a very good deal (in KP’s case and with the cap slated to grow I would jump from the 4 year 70 million offer Noel rejected to a 4 year 90 to start discussions) and see how he reacts.

    44. Stratomatic "Porzingis, Ntilikina, Knox & Robinson are going to lead us to the promised land

      @42

      You have it 100% right.

      We can all see that his WS/48, BPM, and Wins Produced all suggest he’s an average or even below average player. If you accept those models as evaluating his value correctly, then of course you are going to think giving him the max is crazy, especially in light of his injury history.

      IMO, those model are flawed. Not that NBA Real Plus Minus is without flaws, but there’s one that says he’s a quite good player already. Most on/off numbers look good.

      Besides, that’s not the correct way to value players anyway.

      The value of anything is based on what it will produce in the future. The past is just the base you use to help you project the future. We haven’t seen what he can do when used properly and with players that will enhance his own talents. We also knew going in he was a project.

      There may be risk is making projections, but a very smart man once said I would rather be approximately right than precisely wrong. If you looking at his past boxscore stats, imo, you are being precisely wrong.

    45. Bruno Almeida

      @49

      I’m sorry, but I’m pretty sure I read the same argument when the Melo trade was made. Then it was how many more years of Melo has shit teammates, Melo is not being used properly, the Knicks can’t surround him with talent, he does so much more than the stats tell us, etc etc.

      Not that that’s reason to assume Porzingis will be Melo. He’s much younger and he has shown some impressive stuff in his early years, and there’s a good chance he actually becomes a player worthy of the contract you think he should receive.

      But you’re describing exactly what garbage franchises do, they pay players based on hypotheticals and assumptions instead of actual production. I get the whole idea that that’s what you’re gonna get drafting a 19 year old, but it’s still no reason to simply max extend a guy who hasn’t shown himself to be a max guy when there are other options to be explored.

    46. Knick fan not in NJ at this time

      But you’re describing exactly what garbage franchises do, they pay players based on hypotheticals and assumptions instead of actual production.

      Actually, my recall is that garbage franchises mostly pay or trade for players for their past production. Consider Noah, Rose and McDyess on the Knicks, or the three free agents Sacramento hired for 2018-2019 as examples that come to mind right away. Paying for future production also happens, but its not only the “garbage” franchises that do it and it can work out. Consider Embiid and Wiggins as recent examples. One of these is clearly working out and one probably won’t. THJ is another example of paying for future production. I doubt we will get our dollar value for him, but he is a useful player who could still prove he’s worth his contract. Even if he doesn’t, his contract is still a lesser mistake than paying for past production.

    47. GoNyGoNyGo

      The Knicks say they want to be smart. At this point in the team’s development…

      Smart means not maxing out a player returning from knee surgery before he proves he’s fine.
      Smart means understanding that KP will be a Knick for a few more years at the very least.
      Smart means extending the qualifying offer and sign or match unless his knee buckles.
      Smart means not risking him getting hurt since this year’s all about player development.
      Smart means doing what you can to maximize cap space for next summer’s free agent frenzy .
      Smart means gathering as many draft picks as you can rather than trading them away.
      Smart means resisting the temptation to trade for a star that’s 10 years older than your rookies.
      Smart means understanding that lottery was flattened so now tanking is less critical.

    48. Brian Cronin

      Actually, my recall is that garbage franchises mostly pay or trade for players for their past production. Consider Noah, Rose and McDyess on the Knicks, or the three free agents Sacramento hired for 2018-2019 as examples that come to mind right away.

      It’s funny, since Perry was behind those free agent signings in Sacramento (those signings were cited at the time as reasons why the Knicks wanted to hire him). That’s neither here nor there, just seemed funny enough to mention!

    49. Bruno Almeida

      @51

      But my point is exactly exemplified by you mentioning Embiid and Wiggins.

      Embiid showed production when he was healthy, and got progressively healthier as his career progressed, and even then he signed a contract full of clauses for injuries. Wiggins did not show production, or better, showed poor production and got re-signed despite of that because he’s young and supposedly promising. The one that worked out is precisely the one who showed production before being offered the extension, and the one who didn’t so far is the one who had bad advanced stats.

      You’re focusing on the wrong thing when you say bad teams pay for past production. Yes, they do, but with veterans like Noah and Deng, who were very productive players but are done physically. It’s a different case. Embiid’s production is not past in the same sense, it’s present as he’s just now entering his physical prime.

      A more adequate comparison would be the contract Zach LaVine for example received, or Jabari Parker, or Harrison Barnes. Those players received contracts entering their primes that are on par with their reputation, perceived value and future potential but are not on par with their on court production, just like Wiggins. Similar cases to Embiid would be guys like Jokic, Towns or Davis, guys who showed superstar production at some point in their rookie contracts.

      We can argue if paying Porzingis is closer to paying Embiid or to paying Wiggins, and it’s difficult to say because he looked more like Embiid for half his games last season and then a lot like Wiggins until he got injured. But the fact is that Porzingis’ overall present production is simply not indicative of a player you have to max right away.

      I guess it is indeed less terrible than giving Noah his contract, but that’s far too little for my taste. Of course I’d rather pay Porzingis or Wiggins than pay 18 million for Noah, anyone would. Porzingis is on the same level as Giannis after his 3rd season, a raw prospect who flashed some superstar talent here and there and looked prime for a leap. But Giannis was perfectly healthy AND didn’t get a max, so why should Porzingis?

    50. Grocer

      To be clear I said that 5 extra rebounds would probably yield 4 extra shots

      Might want to revise that down, we’ve got rule changes! Offensive team recovers a shot that hits the rim (via rebound, loose ball foul, or out of bounds), shot clock now resets to 14 seconds. Also streamlined clear path rule in favor of offensive team and a broader rule for triggering instant replay in case of a “hostile act”. Pretty good job, rules committee! Way to troll the NFL.

      With respect to Krsitaps, he can rebound. He is below average.

      I wonder how much where you fall on how important this is depends on whether you think he’s a 4 or a 5. I think it’s relatively minor all things considered, but I also think he’s likely to play most of his minutes at the 4 for his entire career. I’m much more concerned about his lackluster perimeter defense. I’m fine with KP not snagging rebounds as long as he’s boxing some other players out. But I’ve always loved that Robin Lopez shit where he never gets a rebound but boxes out 2 or 3 guys at the same time. I wonder if that results in more or less injuries than going for the ball. Do you jump on the grenade, or do you jump on your friends?

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