Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Monday, August 19, 2019

Hey, Mitchell Robinson, This is What Knickerblogger Said When You Were Drafted

In case you happen to check out Knickerblogger, I thought it’d be fun to show you what posters here had to say when you were drafted last June. People were very much into you from the start.

Frank had some pre-pick thoughts…

There really are some interesting names left. 9 picks left. I’d be super happy with:

Frazier
Okobo
Melton
Jacob Evans
KBD
Mitchell robinson
Khyri Thomas
Bruce Brown
Justin Jackson

Silky Johnson, Fleet Admiral of the Tank Armada announced the pick…

Mitchell Robinson, not Deanthony Melton…..

The reactions began…

Frank

Mitchell Robinson? I can roll with that.

Brian Cronin

I’m down with Robinson.

Frank

Dude, Mitchell Robinson is seriously talented…Robinson is legit.

kevin5318

OK!

DRed

Certainly can’t complain about his college production.

thenoblefacehumper

I actually love that pick….the scouting reports and (admittedly limited) numbers on Robinson are really good.

Brian Cronin

Yeah, Robinson has talent.

BigBlueAl

Kevin Pelton had Robinson as his 18th best prospect.

Frank

Sam Vecenie (who really follows high school and college players) said that as a high school senior he basically played Deandre Ayton to a standstill or maybe even got the better of him. He loves Mitchell Robinson.

SI has as his comp = Tyson Chandler.

DRed

He was apparently a very good AAU player

ptmilo

I can’t complain about this pick just bc I was irrationally in love with Melton. Robinson seems like a totally legit flyer for round 2.

BigBlueAl

The more I read about Robinson the more I like the pick, kid apparently during his AAU games was the best shotblocker and rebounder in his draft class and shot 70% on his 2pters.

Zanzibar

Pelton notes that his rankings are different from how the actual draft will turn out, but this order is still odd and way off from everything else we’ve seen this draft season.

Here’s what the top 10 of this projection looks like:

1. Luka Doncic

2. Deandre Ayton

3. Trae Young

4. Jaren Jackson Jr.

5. Michael Porter Jr.

6. Mikal Bridges

7. Mohamed Bamba

8. Dzanan Musa

9. Mitchell Robinson

10. Miles Bridges

ess-dog

Huge value pick with Robinson

Bruno Almeida

I actually really like the Robinson pick, seems like a super fair gamble for a guy who might have a sky high ceiling.

nicos

I am actually kind of excited about summer league- rolling out Frank, Dotson, Knox, and Robinson.

Z-Man

I think we just drafted a Hassan Whiteside clone…

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80 comments on “Hey, Mitchell Robinson, This is What Knickerblogger Said When You Were Drafted

  1. Frank

    Thanks for reading Mitchell!

    lol apparently I had lots of thoughts on the BlockNess Monster/ Madison Square Guardian. Glad it seems to have worked out!

  2. Frank

    Question – if you give up a player’s cap hold/bird rights do the years of service also reset? For instance, right now the Knicks have Jordan’s full bird rights. Let’s say they renounce the bird rights to maximize cap space but them ultimately bring him back on a 1 year- room exception. Do they still have bird rights the following offseason or does it go back to 1 year of service (ie. only non-bird exception available)?

    Re: DSJ – I actually do like him as a prospect but if Kyrie comes he really is superfluous, and prob would not be happy playing 15 min/game as a backup. I’m still really intrigued with Charlotte as a possible destination for him – perhaps their two 2nd rounders (36+52) this draft would get it done? I would imagine they will already know from Kemba whether he is staying or going at that point.

    Or maybe PHX would give up #32 for him?

  3. Brian Cronin Post author

    Question – if you give up a player’s cap hold/bird rights do the years of service also reset? For instance, right now the Knicks have Jordan’s full bird rights. Let’s say they renounce the bird rights to maximize cap space but them ultimately bring him back on a 1 year- room exception. Do they still have bird rights the following offseason or does it go back to 1 year of service (ie. only non-bird exception available)?

    Yes, they would have Jordan’s Bird Rights the following season. But even there, it would be “just” Early Bird Rights, so the MLE. Hard to take a big discount in year one to then sign a long term deal for the MLE. Now, if they could get it to the point where they could offer him, in effect, the MLE right away (so, like, 4 years, starting at $8 million a season with annual raises), I could see that working. They would have to trade a couple of guys to free up that room, though. Unless they get the #4 or lower pick, in which case they’d only need to dump DSJ to have about $8 million under the cap (post KD/Irving).

  4. Frank

    thanks Brian – that’s right, I forgot the Jordan signed a 1 year deal with the Mavs, so he would only have 2 years total service with the Knicks after next season.

    Somewhere someone had a quote from the FO saying that all the FAs want to come back even for less money. That would basically have to be one of Hezonja, DAJ, or Mudiay I would assume. These players presumably know that there prob will be nothing greater than the room available? (also possible that all these players just are being smart, not closing any doors, but fully hoping/expecting to get a bigger deal elsewhere)

  5. Brian Cronin Post author

    Oh, Jordan will totally have to take a paycut, as the dude made $20 million last year! :) I just don’t think it’ll be that much of a paycut. $20 million to $8 million seems plausible (since $8 million is basically the MLE and a player like Jordan wouldn’t be knocked for taking the MLE). $20 million to $4.6 million seems like a stretch.

    There’s a number where I think giving Mario another chance makes sense. I’d be hard pressed to want Mudiay back even at the minimum. He’d be “worth” it, but not really worth it.

  6. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    The problem with Jordan is that we have Robinson.

    If they land 2 legit max players and think Robinson is ready to be the starting C on a serious playoff team, keeping Jordan around to be on the bench is somewhat questionable and unlikely to keep him happy anyway. If Robinson is not ready yet, then it makes more sense that Jordan begins the year as the starting C and splits minutes with Robinson until Mitchell is ready to take over.

    If they don’t land 2 legit max players, then they might as well play Robinson and develop him. Jordan still has some good years left. I can’t see him sticking around for another year or more just to be a mentor on a developing team.

  7. Brian Cronin Post author

    Oh yeah, Jordan only makes sense as the initial starter for a more veteran team centered on the two max free agents. Then slowly takes a back seat as Robinson takes over the center role.

    That, too, is why I’d be wary if I were Jordan about taking the room in year one, as are they really going to give him a long term deal at the MLE when Robinson is in his third year?

    In general, I don’t think Jordan would even be a good use of assets period, but along with the KD/Irving “where there’s smoke” aspect of things, there also seems to be a lot of smoke about Jordan returning (perhaps as part of a connection to KD).

  8. DRed

    With respect to Hezonja, the only way it would make sense to bring him back is if we’re not necessarily trying to win and we want to do something like try to make him a point guard.

  9. lavor postell

    That, too, is why I’d be wary if I were Jordan about taking the room in year one, as are they really going to give him a long term deal at the MLE when Robinson is in his third year?

    They may be willing to give him a one-year payday using their EB Rights to make up the difference. They’d still retain the MLE and bi-annual exception to use to add more depth to the roster as well.

  10. alsep73

    Re: Jordan, what if the Knicks are planning to use Mitch in a package for AD? I would rather just keep Mitch, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that was part of what they’re thinking. In which case, they would want another center.

  11. Hubert

    Brian, this level of capology may be above your pay grade, but I’m curious if you (or anyone) know how taking a pay cut would apply to Kyrie. Because he’s the guy who you could potentially get to take a cut to make room for another player. He’s one year away from 10 year max money, so I’d be shocked if he did anything other than sign 1-and-1’s until he’s eligible for one. My question is, if he were inclined to do so, could he do 1-and-1’s at $27.5mm and still be eligible for the max when he has enough time with the same team? Or does he have to already be at the max to be eligible for to sign a 10 year max?

  12. Hubert

    Also, as much as I love the idea of keeping Jordan, if we can create $8mm in cap room, he’s just not the guy you spend it on. You can do Mitch Rob and a backup C like KOQ for the room and get top production from the C position. If we can create that kind of space to overpay in years in exchange for a lower AAV, I think you have to look at adding a veteran forward or try to talk Danny Green into taking a Mike Miller-to-the-Heat kinda deal to see out his career playing for his hometown team.

  13. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    I don’t think there’s any doubt the Knicks are going to be talking to New Orleans about Anthony Davis. If they get the #1 pick, Zion would be one possible centerpiece of the offer. If they get the 4th or 5th pick, then it will probably be Robinson. In both cases that won’t be enough. They are going to have to add other good assets. How much depends on who the centerpiece is and how much NO values that player. That’s where Dallas’s 2 picks could come in handy.

  14. Brian Cronin Post author

    My question is, if he were inclined to do so, could he do 1-and-1’s at $27.5mm and still be eligible for the max when he has enough time with the same team?

    Whatever salary he takes this year doesn’t affect what he’d be eligible for as a starting salary based on the 10+ year max. The problem with a 1+1 for the Knicks is that they wouldn’t have the cap room after year two to give him the 10+ max, since they’d only have Early Bird rights at that point (and they surely would be over the cap by then).

  15. Farfa

    I don’t think there’s any doubt the Knicks are going to be talking to New Orleans about Anthony Davis. If they get the #1 pick, Zion would be one possible centerpiece of the offer. If they get the 4th or 5th pick, then it will probably be Robinson. In both cases that won’t be enough.

    I mean, I think you’re right, but if that’s the case than by all means don’t enter the AD fray. Mitch and/or Zion as cost controlled assets > AD for a year (yeah, I know, he can resign here after. But there’s no certainty about it). He also came across as a huge jerk in the last weeks.

  16. rama got that Fizdale Magic

    I think AD is a top 5 or at least top 10 player in this league, and I still wouldn’t trade Mitch or Zion for him. Win curve!

    Edit: also, besides Farfa’s observation that he comes off as a bit of a jerk, he’s kind of fragile. We already have one fragile superstar with Frank – not sure we can afford a second.

  17. Frank

    Kyrie could theoretically sign a 1+1 starting at, say $30MM, then make a handshake deal to take the nonbird exception (which would come with 20% raise) rather than pick up his player option on the 1+1.

    So it’d look like this:

    2019-20 season = $30MM (with player option on 2nd year at 5% raise = 31.5MM)
    2020-21 season -> opt out, sign using nonbird exception on a 1+1 basis = $30MM +20% raise = $36MM in year 2 with player option on year 3 with 5% raise (=37.8MM)
    2021-2022 -> opt out, sign using nonbird exception which will get him to the max salary if we wanted to give it to him. Let’s say it’s $42MM + 8% raises
    2022-2023 -> 43.2 MM under new contract.

    His current max (7-9 years) = looks like 4 years $141MM if my math is right
    Doing it this way he would get 30+36+42+45.4 would be 4 years ~153MM — so more $ in the first 4 years plus he would be on the max for another couple years after that presumably.

    Dunno – it’s doable for him but it’d be a risk.

    (I’m not saying I would want to pay him this much, just saying there’s a path where it’s worth it for him)

  18. Bruno Almeida

    Damn, I really liked the pick and managed to get even more pleasantly surprised about Mitch’s play during the season.

    I see the argument about bringing Jordan back if he continues to accept this mentor role that he seems to fit so well, but I’d only do that if we get both Kyrie and Durant. Anything else happens and we should just let him go and install Robinson as the full time Center and let him get as many minutes as he can, with Kornet being the backup.

    Even if we get both superstars we probably should start Mitch anyway, while Jordan could get whatever minutes remain for depth.

    I think if we’re planning to contend right away, there’s better uses for the MLE in a team that has holes everywhere, so unless Jordan accepts a much lesser contract than he’s probably worth, we should be looking into that.

  19. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    I’m not worried about our win curve with Anthony Davis at all. Anthony Davis is 25. He hasn’t even reached his peak yet. If you are worried about the win curve with Davis then you should be very worried about it with Durant who may actually be slipping already.

    If Davis comes, he’s not coming alone. He’s coming with another max player. So we will immediately become a serious team with upside and with a longer widow than with Durant (unless it’s Durant and Davis).

    The downside I am concerned about is giving up too much future value in a player like Zion or Robinson (plus whatever else it takes) where we could just add 2 max players and not give up anything instead.

    I’d go for the 2 max players in the space first and if that fails then at least consider trading for AD and adding 1 max player with him. If that’s the scenario and that’s what it takes, I’d probably do it for years of peak Anthony Davis, but I sure would have some reservations about it (to be honest more so about trading Mitch than Zion).

  20. d-mar

    I love Mitch as much as all of you, and Zion is going to be a star, but if we somehow win a title in the next few years without either of them (i.e. with AD and other free agents) I’ll happily root for them to have wonderful NBA careers elsewhere.

  21. Frank

    If we are lucky enough to win the lottery, call me crazy but I would not trade Zion for Anthony Davis especially considering we’d have to gut the other parts of the roster to make the $ work.
    Zion is 19 and cost-controlled (to some extent) for the next 8+ years and is the best draft prospect to come out since AD himself.

    Davis is amazing, no doubt, but if you have Kyrie and KD, you probably want to fill the rest of the lineup with low-medium usage guys – to some extent you’d be wasting one of them a little (ie. the Chris Bosh effect with Wade/Lebron). Davis has also been injury prone, and will be due his own 7-9 max contract after the 19-20 season.

  22. Frank

    Now if we don’t win the lottery, I think I would trade Mitch for Anthony Davis in conjunction with everyone else that needs to be traded.

    Davis is a better defender than Mitch (Mitch’s absolute ceiling is probably what AD already actually is), and Mitch has no hope of being the offensive player that AD is.

    I would certainly not trade Zion AND Mitch in any package for literally anyone.

  23. Hubert

    Kyrie could theoretically sign a 1+1 starting at, say $30MM, then make a handshake deal to take the nonbird exception (which would come with 20% raise) rather than pick up his player option on the 1+1.

    True. But I’m trying to imagine a scenario where he gives up more money this year and still get paid more down the line.

    Durant, for instance, joined Golden State for $25mm. I don’t recall how low his max was then / how much of a discount that was. But Kyrie this summer will be in a similar position Durant was then. If anyone might sign for a discount, it’s more likely to be him than Durant or Jordan. He has the incentive to 1-and-1 for a few seasons until he’s eligible for megamax money into his mid 30s.

  24. Bruno Almeida

    @25

    Well that’s THE dream. If Zion is even 70% of what he seems to be as a prospect, this is a great core, a straight up contender… and we would have 2 of the 4 pieces guaranteed for 3 more years under contracts they are 100% sure to outperform massively, plus two adequately paid superstars. Then there’s no need at all to even look at Davis, it would be the perfect team plus asset situation because we are still keeping all our picks and the Dallas picks for the future.

  25. Hubert

    The problem with a 1+1 for the Knicks is that they wouldn’t have the cap room after year two to give him the 10+ max, since they’d only have Early Bird rights at that point (and they surely would be over the cap by then).

    Interesting. I thought Durant did 1+1’s for three years because he wanted to get to the 10 year max. Are you saying he couldn’t have signed a long term extension last offseason even if he wanted to? It takes three years for a team to gain full bird rights, and Kyrie would have to 1+1 three times to be eligible for the 10 year max?

  26. geo

    The current vernacular is your choice ‘hella chill’, ‘fuqin lit’ or ‘got that big dick energy’.

    muchas gracing miguel…to which – hope everyone out there in knickerblogger land is feeling that big dick energy today :)

    fun fact – the average length of a male penis is 3 inches…and, that makes me feel better about the world…

  27. vincoug

    They may be willing to give him a one-year payday using their EB Rights to make up the difference. They’d still retain the MLE and bi-annual exception to use to add more depth to the roster as well.

    The Knicks can only do this if we’re giving up the idea of signing to max players. We can’t keep DAJ’s EB rights and still have enough cap space to sign two max guys. We also can’t keep the MLE and have enough cap space for two max slots.

  28. Owen

    Davis is a better defender than Mitch?

    Maybe presently but I don’t know.

    Mitch is inexperienced and may have trouble staying out of foul trouble for a few years. But I don’t think he is very far away from being one of the best defenders in the NBA. It’s not too hard to imagine him as DPOY in 2022.

  29. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Now if we don’t win the lottery, I think I would trade Mitch for Anthony Davis in conjunction with everyone else that needs to be traded.

    Davis is a better defender than Mitch (Mitch’s absolute ceiling is probably what AD already actually is), and Mitch has no hope of being the offensive player that AD is.

    You’re on-brand today, my friend! Echoes of 2011…

    Davis also has missed 20% of available games since he entered the league and is in line for a $239.5M contract, which he will almost certainly sign with NOP before he’s traded.

    Mitch makes $5M over the next three years. In total. Robinson is about as good a rookie-contract player as you can ever expect to get outside of the top pick. And he’s 20, not 26.

    This isn’t even about “upside.” It’s about contract value even if Robinson never improves.

    Of all players who played >1000 minutes this year, here are his rank in some stats. Not vis a vis rookies, but among the best basketball players in the world:

    ORtg #1
    DRtg #36
    DBPM #2
    BLK% #1
    TS% #1
    eFG% #1

    If he had been the #1 overall pick making ~$8M AAV over four, I’d still consider him untradeable. But $1.7M? You’d have to be insane to manage a 17-win team and think that trading a 20-year-old on the league’s best contract for an oft-injured player, about to become the highest-paid player in the league, would be a long-term win for your franchise.

    Put another way: if Mitch decided to retire tomorrow and the Knicks paid the rest of his salary, the Knicks would have paid him about $1.12M per VORP win. That’s if he never plays another game! (By contrast, the Pelicans paid Davis $1.9M per VORP win this year alone.)

  30. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    Davis is amazing, no doubt, but if you have Kyrie and KD, you probably want to fill the rest of the lineup with low-medium usage guys

    I would consider trading for Davis if for example Durant stayed in GS or went to the LAC and the only way Kyrie would join the Knicks is with Davis. That would be 2 relatively young peaking stars and we could retain either Robinson or our draft pick (maybe Zion).

    We need star or prospective star players. Without KP, we can sit around for 5-6 more years trying to draft them and waiting for them to develop, we can try to convince the right ones to come here in free agency (hopefully), or we can trade to accelerate it a bit if it’s the right player, he’s young, and the price is right.

  31. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Also, Mitch, if you’re reading this– I want you to earn a max, and for the Knicks to make you the first extended rookie since Charlie Fucking Ward.

    You are untradeable, my guy. And not in the Carmelo Anthony way.

  32. The Glass Half Rebuilt

    According to Forbes, Mitchell Robinson is worth around $23M a year and is making like $1.5M. You just don’t trade guys like that. The name of the game is spending your money better than everybody else, and when you’re preparing to pay $70M to two guys, that’s the type of contract that takes you over the top.

  33. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    Mitch was excellent in 1360 minutes, but I’ve seen other big men look good very early in their careers and not develop much or not pan out at all. In 2017/2018 it looked like the Warriors hit another homerun with Jordan Bell, but he went backward instead of forward. I’m not comparing the two players at all. Mitch is way younger and way more athletic etc… I’m just saying that Davis is a GREAT player now. Robinson was a very good player for 1360 minutes, some of which was off the bench and some of which was before they started trying to take the lob away from him. We HOPE he will eventually become a great two way player. That doesn’t mean he will.

  34. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Davis is amazing, no doubt, but if you have Kyrie and KD, you probably want to fill the rest of the lineup with low-medium usage guys

    Davis wouldn’t hurt that lineup, but it really is an opportunity cost/scarcity question — and that’s why I want Mitch at $1.7M AAV. We know that players get paid to score, so it’s far less likely that they’d find a cheap high-efficiency scorer than what they’ve found in Mitch. (This is also the reason that I love Brandon Clarke — low chance he ever gets a bloated deal unless he cracks 20 PPG at high efficiency. He’s just not a player who gets gifted a Booker/Wiggins/LaVine contract.)

    Another thing: if Mitch gets injured, the loss of production would be huge but the cap hold would be manageable. Davis’s cap hold would be disastrous and his value would plummet with each missed game.

  35. Brian Cronin Post author

    Are you saying he couldn’t have signed a long term extension last offseason even if he wanted to?

    Correct. He worked it out so that he could either sign the 10-year max with Golden State or sign with another team this offseason.

  36. Knick fan not in NJ who thinks our rookies will lead us to a lousy lottery pick in 2019

    I listened to the Michael Kaye podcast. I agree, Mills and Perry said all the right things (thanks for the link Brian). They also said it was Dolan’s idea to have Ewing represent us at the draft lottery. I can’t complain about Dolan for that one.

  37. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    Mitch was excellent in 1360 minutes, but I’ve seen other big men look good very early in their careers and not develop much or not pan out at all. In 2017/2018 it looked like the Warriors hit another homerun with Jordan Bell, but he went backward instead of forward. I’m not comparing the two players at all. Mitch is way younger and way more athletic etc… I’m just saying that Davis is a GREAT player now. Robinson was a very good player for 1360 minutes, some of which was off the bench and some of which was before they started trying to take the lob away from him. We HOPE he will eventually become a great two way player. That doesn’t mean he will.

    I agree with all of this — even the warranted criticism of Jordan Bell, that scamp — but we should extend the same optimism to this 20-year-old as we have over the rest of the rookies. If everyone else has the ability to improve, I see no reason why it can’t happen for Mitch too.

  38. Brian Cronin Post author

    The Knicks can only do this if we’re giving up the idea of signing to max players. We can’t keep DAJ’s EB rights and still have enough cap space to sign two max guys. We also can’t keep the MLE and have enough cap space for two max slots.

    LP is referring to the following season.

  39. Bruno Almeida

    @35

    Yeah, I agree completely. Let’s fix the other stuff on the team first. We have a chance to build basically the Houston current core, but with more flexibility in terms of salary + all our future picks and a top 5 this year.

    Leave Davis alone, let the Lakers and Celtics kill each other overbidding desperately for him.

  40. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    I agree with all of this — even the warranted criticism of Jordan Bell, that scamp — but we should extend the same optimism to this 20-year-old as we have over the rest of the rookies. If everyone else has the ability to improve, I see no reason why it can’t happen for Mitch too.

    I am bursting with a level of optimism that probably even exceeds yours when it comes to Mitch. I just wanted to point out that “bird in the hand” is at least a consideration. :-)

  41. Brian Cronin Post author

    They may be willing to give him a one-year payday using their EB Rights to make up the difference. They’d still retain the MLE and bi-annual exception to use to add more depth to the roster as well.

    The pitch would definitely be to offer him an under the table raise in year three using the early bird rights. I just don’t know that a single year would do it. I think for it to be worth it to take the room, they’d have to promise a few years. Then you get into, “Do you trust them to fulfill this promise?” But yes, that IS a possible scenario, that they get him to take the room this offseason in exchange for using their early bird rights to reward him the following year while still maintaining the mle and the biannual.

  42. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    We already have one fragile superstar with Frank

    Frank is a what now?

    Even I laughed at that one. :-)

  43. wetbandit

    Trading Mitch would not be smart. Even if he’s the price for Anthony Davis, he’s a young, extremely cost controlled, potential superstar and very possible DPOY candidate. I believe he can play right now as a starter next to Durant and Kyrie. If they wanted combos of Smith, Knox, Frank, Dot, and Trier… and a first rounder or two.. great; but not my boy Mitch.

  44. rama got that Fizdale Magic

    @44 I was wondering if anyone was going to catch that…but aren’t you the advocate of the Law of Attraction? Or are there limits to The Secret?

    You are untradeable, my guy. And not in the Carmelo Anthony way.

    I need to be careful where I read this blog, because I laughed out loud at that on the subway. Yes, I am a crazy person…

    Speaking of which, Geo, keep on keeping on, man. Your posts are consistently amusing…you may be old, but you got that gif game going for you….

  45. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    I tried to explain to Lady Jowles the appeal of geo, but I suspect it’s a lot like trying to explain the aesthetic value of Finnegan’s Wake to a person who’s never cracked it open

  46. Frank

    @Jowles – yeah you’re probably right re: Mitch.

    My first choice is that lineup I posted above – Mitch + Zion + Durant + Dotson or whoever + Kyrie. That would be such a cool team. And honestly there’s literally a, say, 10-14% chance of that happening. It’s not even like a Dumb and Dumber “so you’re saying there’s a chance” scenario.

  47. Ntilakilla

    Pelton’s ranking wasn’t too far off in his projections according to what Zanzibar presented above here. He was roughly right about Luka, Trae, and Ayton. Putting MitchRob in the top 10 was a nice add.

    Seems like the Perry is playing his cards the right way so far.

    “We’re not going to look at this summer as the end-all-or-be-all, per se,” the Knicks’ GM said. “We’re excited to be in the game. We’re not going to go off the rails if we don’t get [the marquee guys]. We’ll be very comfortable with the draft, and we can still add via trade to be a better basketball team.”

    I feel way better that this line is coming from him and not Mills.

  48. Bruno Almeida

    We really can’t complain about Perry too much, he’s saying everything we want to hear. If that’s what he’s going to do, I have no idea but I’m still hopeful.

    The good thing is that they can take this one step at a time, see how the lottery goes and then act from there.

  49. The Glass Half Rebuilt

    I actually really like Scott Perry. Between signing Mitch Rob, putting together the best tank roster in the league, getting out from the Courtney Lee, TH2, and Porzingis contracts (not to mention the Porzinigis rape/extortion case) in one swift move, and keeping the Knicks out of negative headlines all season, I really like the job he’s doing. He seems to understand the win curve while valuing youth, draft picks, and cap space, and that’s good enough for me. I don’t care if he’s not Masai Ujiri or Darryl Morey good. He’s in New York City and all you really need to build a consistent winner in New York is not give Jimmy Butler and Kemba Walker max contracts.

  50. chriskZIPCODE

    Here’s my unscientific view of the top 10 best value draft picks we have made since I started watching in 1980. performance vs where picked….so Ewing first doesn’t really count. Totally unscientific. Plus I got bored 1/2 way thru. Notice how many made it with other teams.

    1. Mitch. 2018 # 36

    2. Mark Jackson. 1987. #18
    3. Trevor Ariza 2004. #48
    4. David Lee. 2005 #30
    5. Gerald Wilkins. 1985 #47
    6. Kurt Rambis. 1980. #58 (you gotta admit)
    7. Rod Strickland 1998 #19
    8. Frank Brikowski 1981 #57
    9. Landry Fields. 2010. #39 (if you accept injuries did him in)
    10. Wilson Chandler. 2007. #23

  51. MSA

    In a vacuum, spending money on DJ is a mistake. Mitch is already a better and playing mostly for free. We could spend the money to fill the other positions.

    However, it’s much easier to tell the top players “hey, we already have an all-star center taking a big pay cut to play with you guys” than “hey, our 2nd round rookie is looking very promising”. As dumb as this line of though could be, that’s how the big names and their agents probably think.

  52. wetbandit

    I don’t know if this was discussed previously, but playing around with B-R, and I found the following stats, Guaranteed To Shock You!

    – Highest rookie TS% (min 750 min), all time

    – Highest rookie WS/48 since 1995 (min 750 min, last: Sabonis). All time: #6 behind Wilt, the other Robinson, Bellamy, and Clifford Ray. He is the youngest.

    – Highest Blk/36 for a rookie since 1985 (Manute Bol), #4 all time for a rookie behind Manute Bol, Mark Eaton, Tree Rollins. (#36 all time for any season, Manute Bol takes up 10 spots FYI)

    – #2 all time in Blk% for a rookie (Manute Bol)

    – #7 all time in Blk% for any season/player/year, only beat by Manute Bol (5 times), and Alonzo Mourning (age 35 season)

    -#61 all time in OWS, #15 in the past 20 years

    – #6 all time in BPM for a rookie, #2 in 20 years (Chris Paul)

    Correct me if I’m out of line, but I wouldn’t trade Mitch Rob for Anthony Davis without RECEIVING sweeteners :)

  53. MSA

    Here’s my unscientific view of the top 10 best value draft picks we have made since I started watching in 1980. performance vs where picked….so Ewing first doesn’t really count. Totally unscientific. Plus I got bored 1/2 way thru. Notice how many made it with other teams.

    1. Mitch. 2018 # 36

    2. Mark Jackson. 1987. #18
    3. Trevor Ariza 2004. #48
    4. David Lee. 2005 #30
    5. Gerald Wilkins. 1985 #47
    6. Kurt Rambis. 1980. #58 (you gotta admit)
    7. Rod Strickland 1998 #19
    8. Frank Brikowski 1981 #57
    9. Landry Fields. 2010. #39 (if you accept injuries did him in)
    10. Wilson Chandler. 2007. #23

    Charlie Ward, Hubert Davis or Greg Anthony should be on this list…

  54. Ntilakilla

    @56

    And he didn’t even receive any college coaching. This is why I am not as much on the “Hedgehog side” of the debate regarding MitchRob as others here are. He’s only doing a specific set of things well because he’s never been asked to do anything in the limited amounts of post-High School minutes he’s played. We also don’t know what his ceiling is since there isn’t really much of a sample either. But when you look at his ability to refine his game in mid-NBA season, his very young age, and how he seems willing to practice a 3-point shot and some post moves, which shouldn’t we at least entertain the idea that he can develop to a higher level of versatility than any bigman in this draft?

  55. Grocer

    Also, as much as I love the idea of keeping Jordan, if we can create $8mm in cap room, he’s just not the guy you spend it on. You can do Mitch Rob and a backup C like KOQ for the room and get top production from the C position

    Yo, all of this. DAJ would be nice but it’s a waste of money given Mitch’s talent and the inexpensive nature of good backup 5’s.

    And let’s stay the fuck away from Davis. Either we land KD+Kyrie and there’s nothing there for him but a reduced role while gutting our ability to fill out the team or we don’t and we’re trading our best prospects to build around one guy. No thanks. Best way to get Davis on the Knicks is NOLA trades him this summer, he doesn’t like the landing spot and signs with us the following summer. Anything else is a misuse of assets.

  56. wetbandit

    I don’t really care much about versatility. As long as a player isn’t a big liability somewhere on the court, being elite in 1-2 areas, and being used in those areas enough to give elite production, is good. If Mitch Robinson does his alley-oop and dunk thing 10 times a game, and continues to give you elite block and rim protection numbers, he is elite, bar none, no ‘for his age’ modifier attached. If you have an elite sniper on your squad, do you ask him to engage in the full-frontal assault for ‘versatility’ or do you park his ass on the roof across the street and guide the action to his scope?

    If Mitch doesn’t ever learn to post or shoot a 3, I don’t give a shit as long as he continues to do his thing. (I have daydreams of Kyrie lobs multiple times a game)

  57. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

    I actually really like Scott Perry. Between signing Mitch Rob, putting together the best tank roster in the league, getting out from the Courtney Lee, TH2, and Porzingis contracts (not to mention the Porzinigis rape/extortion case) in one swift move, and keeping the Knicks out of negative headlines all season, I really like the job he’s doing.

    IMO, if you asked Scott Perry privately whether he was happy to get out from under the Porzingis contract he’d look at you like you were crazy. Given KP wanted out and he had to trade him, I’m sure he was thrilled that as part of the deal he got out from under the Hardaway and Lee contracts and can hopefully replace Porzingis with a young star player in that extra space. But he did not want to have to do it.

    Incidentally, as someone that still thinks Lee is underrated when healthy, it has recently come to light that it was Mills that pushed for the Lee signing when he was GM. I’d have to say that even though I don’t think Perry has done a “great” job (other than Mitch), thank God it’s not Mills making all the personnel and salary decisions.

  58. rama got that Fizdale Magic

    shouldn’t we at least entertain the idea that he can develop to a higher level of versatility than any bigman in this draft?

    Consider it entertained. That said, there’s no reason he should be thinking about any of that this off season. He can develop a low-efficiency miss-range crossover and spin move in a couple years.

  59. Ntilakilla

    @60 and 63

    If Mitch doesn’t ever learn to post or shoot a 3, I don’t give a shit as long as he continues to do his thing. (I have daydreams of Kyrie lobs multiple times a game)

    I wouldn’t either. In my mind we’re playing with house money since he’s already a useful NBA player as a raw rookie big man. But developing Mitch into a stretch 5 would who can at least nail down open three pointers would be a boon for our offense. It would essentially make him the player we hoped KP would become without the high volume shooting and inefficient mid range jumpers.

  60. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    IMO, if you asked Scott Perry privately whether he was happy to get out from under the Porzingis contract he’d look at you like you were crazy. Given KP wanted out and he had to trade him, I’m sure he was thrilled that as part of the deal he got out from under the Hardaway and Lee contracts and can hopefully replace Porzingis with a young star player in that extra space. But he did not want to have to do it.

    I think that if Perry leaves cap space on the table this year, i.e. not trying to sign the Mosgovs and Evan Turners of the world just because he’s got cash to burn, it’s reasonable to assume that he would not have thrown $156M at a guy coming off major knee surgery and who had fallen well short of his ceiling on offense for the duration of his career, up to the injury itself.

    I mean, I personally would have loved to have Porzingis back, before the rape allegations — but only if he had another cost-controlled year on his contract so a safe decision could be made about his max contract.

    Ultimately, we’re all grasping at straws here, whether the above happens or not. I hope someday we get it straight from Perry’s mouth as whether he thought Porzingis is a max player.

  61. Grocer

    IMO, if you asked Scott Perry privately whether he was happy to get out from under the Porzingis contract he’d look at you like you were crazy.

    Don’t know why you would think that.

    I think that if Perry leaves cap space on the table this year, i.e. not trying to sign the Mosgovs and Evan Turners of the world just because he’s got cash to burn, it’s reasonable to assume that he would not have thrown $156M at a guy coming off major knee surgery and who had fallen well short of his ceiling on offense for the duration of his career, up to the injury itself.

    He’s said he won’t sign guys like that, I hope that’s true. I do think he’d have given KP the max, depending on the outcome if the rape investigation. I’m assuming his job isn’t so secure it would have survived not doing so.

  62. thenoblefacehumper

    If Perry thought Porzingis at the max was a smart investment, I’d say there’s about an 85% chance Porzingis would be here for the next five years.

    I don’t care what he says, there’s zero chance that guy was taking the QO. That would be unprecedentedly bad advice for a guy coming off a major injury who has yet to make a mark production wise.

    Would he have signed a 2 + 1 or something like that? Maybe, but I’m still very skeptical. If $156M was on the table for a guy in his position, it’s very hard for me to see him passing it up. We’ll find out this offseason since the Mavs apparently weren’t on his list. If he’s really willing to bet on himself, and would’ve turned down the Knicks max, he’ll sign a sub-max deal somewhere else.

  63. The Honorable Cock Jowles

    He’s said he won’t sign guys like that, I hope that’s true.

    He said he won’t sign guys who aren’t worthy of the money, but we have no idea what that means. Of course we all fear the prospect of a Mosgov-like contract (hell, even Otto Porter’s), but signing Kemba and Tobias Harris could be a disaster, too. Offering a supermax is (or should be) an indication that you’re ready to win deep into the playoffs. This is why there are discussions here and elsewhere of trading absurdly-high-value guys like Mitch for excellent but far-right-side-of-the-win-curve players like Davis, whose very inclusion on your team means that future draft picks are less important than present-day wins.

    I’m not trying to be cynical, just agnostic. We just don’t know enough about who Perry and Mills identify as valuable. It’s really hard to call them geniuses when they took Knox at #9, even if Mitch has blown all expectations out of the water. I know that the draft is a crapshoot, but we still don’t know what value looks like to them, nor whether their plan will involve a long-term rebuild or a mid-tier star FA spending spree and rubbing a lucky rabbit’s foot in hopes that another Mitch will fall from the sky (cough cough Clarke) and create an ensemble worthy of a 2015 Hawks-like Conference Finals appearance.

  64. bidiong

    A) This is a great post.

    B) Mitchell Robinson aka #MitchLob You need to get Perry and Mills to read our threads on a daily basis so they can make the right roster moves. That’s your job as savior of the Knicks. <3 you buddy!

  65. Brian Cronin Post author

    A minor point that came up the other day that surprised me is that a bunch of Knicks apparently thought that Trier was a “cancer.” Bizarre, right? Berman said:

    “His play on the court was cancerous,” a source tells Marc Berman of the New York Post. “A lot of guys didn’t like the way he didn’t play team ball. He cared about himself too much. He looked guys off who were open.’’

  66. DRed

    Trier was a black hole but it’s funny that it’s almost certain whoever was complaining about him also didn’t pass

  67. chriskZIPCODE

    This is a great thread!!
    I’m going to suggest that nobody mentions Knickerblogger to Kevin Knox.

  68. The Glass Half Rebuilt

    The Nets are a team I like more and more each day. They will never replace the Knicks for me, but as a Brooklyn native I like that they’re giving Philly a hard time this series.

  69. Grocer

    I’m not trying to be cynical, just agnostic. We just don’t know enough about who Perry and Mills identify as valuable. It’s really hard to call them geniuses when they took Knox at #9

    I’m just hoping for uncommonly competent. That’d be amazing.

    I don’t understand why folks think Kemba is in play. He apparently wants to stay in Charlotte and they apparently want to give him all the money. All that seems more solid than the KD rumours.

    Kady & The Roomers is a good name for a Knickerblogger house band.

  70. ess-dog

    Trier was a black hole but it’s funny that it’s almost certain whoever was complaining about him also didn’t pass

    It must be Mudiay, even though he technically passes the ball a fair amount. He seems like the kind of guy that feels the need to call that out.

  71. Brian Cronin Post author

    I’m just hoping for uncommonly competent. That’d be amazing.

    I’ve said this a few times, but it is staggering to me that the Knicks, just by being who they are, are always going to be a theoretical destination for the world’s best free agents because players do want to play here. So Knick GMs have proceeded to cap the team out for something like 18 of the last 20 years. While the team was terrible for most of that time period!

    So yes, all you have to do to be a decent Knick GM is not clog up the cap and you might get two stud free agents to come team-up here. So far, it looks like Perry is hitting that very basic level of competency that has still evaded most Knick GMs (including his current boss).

  72. Nick C.

    It must be Mudiay, even though he technically passes the ball a fair amount. He seems like the kind of guy that feels the need to call that out.

    IIRC THJ and Burke were referenced in the article.

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