SNY: Knicks Q&A: Julius Randle looks ahead to 2019 season

We’re going to like having Julius. One of the few moves the braintrust has made in the last 20 years that I’m in favor of.

Since this thread has already gone a whopping 2 posts without a reference to Frank, I’ll do the honors of breaking the ice. Here’s a rational but cautiously optimistic write-up about Frank’s workouts and progress.

The difference between USA and the other teams is the balance of the roster. I still think they’re favorites to win, but not by much.

The issue is that Jokic and Giannis can win games single handedly. Gobert is another scary force on defense for France.

Spain is also balanced but I’m not sure they have USA’s talent.

What I will say is that USA clearly does not have the best player. I wonder how often that has happened.

I have really mixed feelings about whether a three to four seed in the East would win FIBA. The Croatians and Chinese both didn’t do well in Summer league and they were playing NBA rookies and second year players, but they aren’t the best of the international teams either. I just think team play and coherence as a team plays a big role and I don’t know if the US has this

Probably the dumbest thing that Fizdale did last year was dump the lineup early in the season that was seemingly working out okay because they weren’t winning games. Of course they weren’t winning games, you nimrod! That wasn’t the point of last season!

I’m interested to see how Randle & Mitch work together on offense-Randle has some range and he’s a pretty good playmaker for a bigman but he also seemed to score better as a center on the Pelicans

French Knicks Pod
@FrenchKnicksPod
12 points 5 rebounds 3 steals and 2 assist for frank in 15 minutes

Max him!!!

I think the French FIBA team is pretty good. Gobert would play ahead of any of the centers on the US team and Batum is good.

I still feel bad for NBA players later in life, because their bodies are not built well for aging. Baseball players have it the best, aging-wise.

I’m not writing the Mets off yet. Atlanta is tough and has their number but they just swept a good Indians team. The extra innings loss was a killer, needed that one. But there’s a lot of season left.

I always liked Randle, he’s simply put a very productive player. Yes, there are caveats about his defense, how he gets his numbers and concerns about if he’s going to keep up after getting paid, but getting a young player who’s actually productive is a nice change of pace for this franchise, and that can’t be the worst thing.

I’m actually excited to see how he’ll play with Mitch, and I’m glad to read that he respects him (and Portis saying he expects Mitch to start is welcome news too).

The NBA History Instagram/Twitter account has been posting highlights of famous blocks all week long and today they posted Hakeem’s block on Starks at the end of Game 6. I will go to my grave believing if he doesn’t block that shot Starks (who was on fire and had scored 16 points in the 4th quarter) drills that 3pter and the Knicks are NBA champions. I’m beginning to think that’s the closest I will ever come in my lifetime to seeing the Knicks win an NBA championship 🙁

I’m not judging anyone who’s unable or unwilling to cut the cord on Facebook, but my life is happier and more productive since I did. Twitter even more.

Not having to deal with self-righteous SJWs, meme-sharing boomers or Gadsden paleocons from all angles? Sign me out, please.

From the frontlines of the SJW wars: I said something was “lame” today on Facebook and some tool said I was being “ableist.”

You didn’t retort by calling him an unthinking literalist??? 🙂

I got rid of Instagram, Facebook, Twitter, and my cell phone.

(Now if I can just get rid of reading pointless knicks blogs, I’ll really be free…)

What annoys me the most is that ableism for example is a real issue, yet people will just scream those words in a pointless internet discussion just to try to “win” an argument against anyone. I’d still rather we use those words sorta liberally so at least there’s some discussion about important stuff in the background, but for someone who has been working with theoretical constructs for my entire adult life, this is just super frustrating.

I’m ready for some NBA to start. I’m kind of excited to watch this weird lumbering Frankenstein Knicks squad.

RE: Social Media

Sadly, we are living in a time where virtual reality is becoming more real than real life to people. That, my friends, is escapism on a cocktail of crack, steroids, and MDMA taken intravenously by a society who- by and large- have to deal with increased and exacerbated stress and anxiety. Alot of it is self inflicted. So…you know what I do when a holier than thou commenter hops on their high horse? “LOL”. Unless of course something gets under my skin or it’s a conversation worth having.

There are far too many people out there who enjoy judging too much because it makes them forget who they are. At times it makes me feel like we will never have a United, functional society.

JK, my wife passed this along re: Bernie…feel free to share it with your facebook buddy.

What are people’s thoughts on the Caris LeVert extension? I imagine Dinwiddie (sp.?) and LeVert plus picks will end up being a package for a third superstar once one becomes available. And everyone will laugh at us again.

I don’t really get the love for Lavert. He seems more like a nice guy to have on the bench than a key piece on a playoff team.

I don’t really get the love for Lavert. He seems more like a nice guy to have on the bench than a key piece on a playoff team.

It’s similar to the love for D’Angelo Russell, me thinks. A combination of LeVert being very young, being on an up-and-coming team (which people tend to get really excited about, a la the Timberwolves before they cratered) , and being a scoring leader on that team.

Levert seems like a sort of generic Wilson Chandler type wing to me and his extension is certainly not a bargain. You’re getting his age 25-27 seasons for $17M each, which seems like market value. It makes sense for the win-now Nets.

As noted: Nets are all-in, LeVert is in his prime.

Unfortunately for them, here are his percentile rankings in the advanced stats:

POE 26th
PIPM 26th
RPM 32nd
RAPM 12th

WS48 .077
BPM -0.2

He’s getting paid off those torrid shooting games he had in October and November. Pretty crazy, but win curve, I guess. Just going to be a real hard pill to swallow when Durant comes back looking like a different player altogether.

Levert is really the sort of guy I wouldn’t want to be paying real money for, but there’s always the promise of him finally learning how to shoot. He’s good at a bunch of stuff, he’s fairly young, this season doesn’t really matter to the Nets and having KD and Kyrie to take some of the offensive burden off him might make it easier for Levert to earn his salary the last two years.

Allen is a good complement to Kyrie and pre-Achilles Durant. It’s just that they’re not going to have the peak years for either of those guys. It’s going to be a tough crawl to 48 wins in 2020-21, to say nothing of a deep playoff run. Imagine how Kyrie will act when they’re fighting to get out of the 7-seed (and a first-round matchup with Giannis) in March.

One-star teams don’t win championships.

The Star + sidekick + depth model has won significantly more titles than the “sell out your depth for three max players” model, which has only ever worked with LeBron James. It most recently won out again, like, two months ago.

We could get into a semantic argument about what constitutes a “star”. Siakim was excellent, for instance, but he wasn’t someone the Raptors traded all their depth for.

JK, my wife passed this along re: Bernie…feel free to share it with your facebook buddy.

Is this real? The knock on Bernie is that he dodged the draft to avoid fighting in a horribly unjust war, and that until the age of 40 he lived on odd jobs while running for office? Oh, and that he’s driven and some people say he’s not nice to them? Seriously?

I mean it’s not OK not to be nice but if this is the worst people say about a politician he’s an angel.

He didn’t even dodge the draft. From that very “article” it says:

By the time his draft number came up, he was too old to be drafted anyway.

I think a lot of the hostility from Bernie supporters comes from unfair criticisms and attacks, and I’m sure that just drives the negative narrative even further. It’s a vicious cycle and we’re all the worse for it.

I think a lot of the hostility from Bernie supporters comes from unfair criticisms and attacks

Yeah, but this is what politics is. Hillary Clinton wasn’t unfairly attacked? Barack Obama wasn’t unfairly attacked? They need to put on their big boy pants and stop the fucking whining. Politics ain’t beanbag and Bernie isn’t the only candidate ever to get unfairly attacked.

The other thing that’s annoying about that is that Bernie actually gets treated with kid gloves, because nobody in the D party wants to piss off his thin skinned fanbois. If he thinks the Democratic primary is unfair, just wait until he wins the nom and the full force of the GOP shit cannon is pointed at him.

all I know is that none of the frontrunners for the Dem primary would suggest nuking a hurricane

we need to stop this purity-test gladiatorial nonsense and focus on helping to remove from office the guy who suggested nuking a hurricane

because then we will have a POTUS that does not suggest nuking hurricanes

instead of the politician who suggested nuking a hurricane

The sad thing is that nuking the hurricane is probably not his worst idea.

Bernie would be our next President – and a transformational one at that – if he’d take my simple advice: Be a single issue candidate and that issue should be a constitutional amendment to eliminate corporate and fat cat money from politics. Call it “The Clean Government” amendment. Place the proposed amendment on his website. Pressure all incumbents and candidates to sign a pledge committing to vote for amendment. Keep a list on his website of those who have signed the pledge and those who have refused.

No issue receives more bipartisan support in polling (and it’s especially popular with so-called independents). It would be an uphill battle since he’d have all the power brokers against him: 1) corporate interests like Pharm, Oil; 2) fat cats like the remaining Koch brother 3) even the media because the amendment would have to limit “issues advertising” before election 4) his fellow incumbent Senators who rely on that money to be re-elected. But that should just energize him and donations would pour in. Voters wouldn’t care about his stance on health care and other issues because most voters would be single issue voters if he makes this the issue and his platform. Bernie is the best candidate to make this happen because voters wouldn’t trust any of the others to follow through once elected.

In retrospect they sort of did a pretty good job with the first reboot movie, The Force Awakens. Yeah, it was the same movie as Star Wars (fuck you it’s not called A New Hope) but the characters were pretty decent and it looked good. I was entertained.

This last one looks like it’s gonna be an overstuffed mess like The Last Jedi.

Bernie had my vote in 2016, dude hasn’t really done anything to lose it imo. Generalizing Bernie supporters is a silly thing to do. Y’all are smarter than that. Either way I’m not sure how Trump wins the next election. He’s lost libertarians, white women, and everyone whose paid a shit ton in taxes for the first time.

However, my dream ticket with the current crop for the general is Warren President with Al Franken as VP. Now that would be great TV.

jotd: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7SvtikTkrM

Either way I’m not sure how Trump wins the next election.

yeah, george answered your question many years ago:

“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

@Geo I feel like that logic mostly applied in 2016. It was a close race in swing states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.) and the most of deciding factors were a combo of:

– Extremely flawed candidate in Hillary Clinton (who lost to an out of nowhere Obama when it was “her time”)
– Democrats controlling the presidency for 8 years (not often does the party retain the white house past that)
– Comey
– Russian tomfoolery

Trump has been shedding his base like crazy. Again, libertarians see through his bullshit. He’s lost ground with White Women. Truckers, etc. are owing thousands in taxes for the first time.

I would be shocked to see dude win again. I understand the fear, but frankly don’t see it happen. Americans are dumb as rocks but Trump doesn’t have his boisterous brand cache he had in 2016 and won’t be facing a candidate who has been growing a long list of enemies since the early 90s.

The only path I see for Trump to win is if the dems throw Biden out there.

Biden’s not a good candidate. He’s just a familiar face who has fallen upward because he’s stuck around for a long time. I worry that young voters will stay home if he’s the nom. He was never the sharpest tack in the drawer to begin with and he has a real “old guy who can’t operate his iPhone” vibe to him.

Trump really needs to pull an inside straight though. It looks like PA and MI might be lost causes, so he’ll need to hold serve on every other state including Wisconsin and hope to eke out a 269-269 tie. AZ is turning blue too, and the only possible blue state that might flip is MN, which seems like a long shot.

Trump also has to hope he can run out the clock before the economy goes into the ditch which is starting to look unlikely.

@JK that makes me happy. They touring anytime soon?

edit: i googled and found out.

This song rules.

thank jowles for posting, and thanks jk for helping to make it all happen…i’ve listened to a number of AP’s songs now and watched a few of the videos…the music on its own is one thing, but, listening to the music and watching the vid images fucks me up a little…especially that one with that skinny dude smoking…

it’s like marrying up the music with the images glitches my brain out a bit…it’s a little challenging…i guess though that’s what really good art does…leaves you wondering what exactly did i just experience…

This last one looks like it’s gonna be an overstuffed mess like The Last Jedi.

For real. They’ve always been kids movies, no big deal, but it was way too long. Huge chunks just dragged on forever to no purpose. It could have been 30 minutes shorter without losing anything.

The whole Finn subplot in The Last Jedi was basically a shaggy dog story. Every minor character doesn’t need a story arc. It’s like if they spent 20 minutes of Return Of The Jedi following Nien Nunb trying to find some secret space plans but then he never finds them and everybody just sort of shrugs their shoulders.

Finn was a pretty fresh character in The Force Awakens, they should have just had him do some hero pilot shit in The Last Jedi and been done with it.

They’re also back to a generic CGI look in these last two movies after making a point of getting away from that in The Force Awakens.

Really hope Randle can be that good efficiency high usage guy who also makes others a little better. Always knew that this front office is managing trying to stay employed as oppose to swing for the fences; Randle and his contract are the max risk they are willing to assume.

A folding double lightsaber? I’m sorry, that’s just dumb.

who’s the coolest kid on this site today – yeah, that’d be me – all day…turns out this isn’t the first appearance of a folding double lightsaber in the star wars canon – pong krell used them (he had two, krell himself had like four arms) in ‘darkness on umbara’…

it’s not easy being this freaking cool, ya know 🙂

Pong Krell was a powerful Force-user. His Besalisk anatomy allowed him to wield two Double-bladed lightsabers at the same time.[9] Krell’s weapons were unique, as they could fold in the middle, making them easier to carry.[5] He wielded his lightsabers with deadly precision, spinning them like buzz saws to have devastating effect, and he was capable of killing many clone troopers with ease. He could also deflect an innumerable amount of blaster bolts with ease.[3]

I don’t expect much from DSjr but it would be awesome if he breaks out in a big way to ease the pain of getting fleeced by Dallas in the KP trade and drafting Frank over him.

At the very peak of his powers in terms of energy and intellect (20-30 years ago), Biden was not considered the top candidate in the democrat party. Even after Gary Hart (who was the leader at the time) was forced out he was still never in a solid position to win the nomination. He’s a “has been that never was”. That he is near the top is a damning statement about the other candidates. The only reason he’s in contention now is that he’s the only moderate with any name recognition. The rest of the major candidates are closet semi-socialists and crack pots. The DNC and media do not want to give any other moderate any momentum.

Clinton had the resume, experience, name recognition, money and media to beat Trump. The only reason she lost was because she’s the most corrupt and hated politician of my lifetime. If the democrats put up a moderate like her (but not a “has been” like Biden), they would win at least 45 states in one of the greatest landslides in history.

If they put up one of these closet socialists, they may win anyway, but that will give Trump a fighting chance. Loads of young idealistic people find these semi-socialists attractive, but much of the country thinks they are loons that don’t understand how the real world and economy works. It won’t be easy to convince them otherwise.

My mother is a lifelong democrat that dislikes Trump. So are many of my friends. When I ask them about Bernie and Warren, they say “crackpots”. Many democrats are still very moderate and so are most independents. Those people are all still in play for Trump if the wrong candidate is put up. You can’t judge the country by young NY liberals and their friends.

FWIW, I really enjoyed TLJ. For years people cried out for Star Wars to give us something different and we got it with TLJ. My only criticisms though would be that the pacing seems off (i.e. the whole sub-plot with the rebels running out of fuel seemed poorly paced with Finn’s story) and Captain Phasma wasn’t given the opportunity to shine after significant hype. All that being said I am a bit of a Star Wars homer so can generally find positives in all the films ha ha.

On DSj I am really hoping that rebuilt shot is for real. You can take the pro-am footage with a grain of salt, I think if you look deeper at his mechanics, it looks significantly better than last year. Seems to be really trying to shake the whole “DSj can only dunk” this off-season.

thanks strat…i don’t follow this stuff too closely, was just wondering…a tend to agree with your view of unions…

seems like a pretty small issue though…seeing how i’ll probably follow the crowd and support warren as my first choice – i suppose i should do a little homework and read up on some of her policy ideas…

The only reason he’s in contention now is that he’s the only moderate with any name recognition.

He was Obama’s VP and Obama remains extremely popular. Mayor Pete is a moderate, he has name recognition, basically no one gives a shit.

It’s strange to me that this cult of the moderate has lasted. A moderate president gets nothing done unless their party controls both houses. They promote a mixed executive branch which means no effective change in any federal organization. The mechanisms which let moderates govern effectively don’t exist anymore. There’s no point to it unless you’re enamored of the status quo.

It’s also hard to be one. Lots of folks are single issue voters, across an array of things. Abortion, guns, immigration, civil rights, the list is huge. Hardliners control the primaries for both chambers and don’t allow the once common vague answers on these issues anymore. Moderates are rare and embattled. Add to that the difficulty they have in getting anything done and what’s the point?

The great middle has really stong opinions on a couple of things, varying from person to person. Many say they want a moderate, but what they want is someone who holds a fairly extreme stance on a few issues but is adaptable and pragmatic on everything else.

E.g., Warren. This is an intelligent, well respected (before entering politics anyway) economics prof who used to be a Republican and whose stances changed as our economy changed. I’d call that pragmatic. Others think it’s a purity fail. Strat thinks Warren is banana cakes because she doesn’t adhere to his preference on his issues of particular importance.

Asking for moderates is asking to roll back the clock to before the rise of movement conservatism, and before occupy. It’s a folly for folks that like to hear themselves talk, nothing more. I’m surprised I’m not into it.

Strat’s politics takes are a lot like his basketball takes

Wrath of Khan is a better film than any of the Star Wars films.

oh, that’s got me rolling 🙂

oh, that’s got me rolling 🙂

Look inside you. You know it’s true

I have no idea where to even start with these Strat takes. They’re all wrong, and some of them literally verifiably so!

By what measure is HRC more corrupt than Donald Trump? On what planet is any politician in either party capable of winning one of the biggest landslides in the history of US presidential elections with the country more polarized than it’s ever been? Are you aware that union representation on corporate boards hasn’t derailed, say, France and Germany?

I mean, it’s the same shit as the basketball takes. You’ve decided Phil Jackson was a good executive and won’t absorb any evidence to the contrary, so now you have to create a fantasy world that exists to prove that’s true. You’ve decided “socialism bad,” so you won’t take 5 minutes to find out that the stuff you’re deriding is accepted as non-controversial, sensible public policy the world over.

Do you, dude, but I really think your life will be enriched if you become just a tad more open to things that don’t conform to exactly what your gut tells you.

You can’t judge the country by young NY liberals and their friends.

No, apparently we should judge the country by your friends. Makes much more sense.

What the Democrats should really do is listen to people who are not Democrats, like David Brooks and Strat here.

Wait a minute, I think I figured it out. Strat is David Brooks.

#GalaxyBrain

how the real world […] works

this is the true story
of 7 strangers
picked to live in a house
and have their lives taped

to find out what happens
when people stop being polite
and start getting
real

The Real World

Tnfh, I agree that there is a lot more evidence that Trump is corrupt than that HRC is corrupt, not even counting all the associates of Trump that have been actually convicted. Buf I don’t agree about the unions in France. France is in serious economic trouble because of all the constraining work rules they have.

So far, 10 candidates have met both thresholds (Candidates must receive contributions from at least 130,000 individuals, coming from at least 400 unique donors in 20 or more states. They also need to reach 2% in at least four DNC-approved polls.), qualifying them for the debates scheduled for September 12 and 13:
Former Vice President Joe Biden
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker
Mayor Pete Buttigieg
Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro
California Sen. Kamala Harris
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar
Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
Businessman Andrew Yang

i’ll try to remember to tune in…

I became aware of EW through the low point that really revealed what kind of deliberate sinister racist AH the man is. It was when he held the ceremony for Navajo WWII code speakers in front of the AJ portrait and mentioned Pocahontas while talking praise to native Americans. Grouse.
Only a brain like that is capable of suggesting sui-nuking. Fuck you hurricane, we’ll nuke you back to stone age. TF?
But as a European my only concern are foreign policy views of candidates…and in this regard Clinton and Obama said nice words, tried diplomacy but really did the dirty deeds while Trump talks shit while his actions haven’t worsen the situation around Mediterranean. For now.
On the opposite, the situation is moderately stable around here if you compare it to late Obama mandate.
So how is Warren in that regard(middle east)…hope she shares no values with Clinton.
May your votes have lucky hands for You and the world.

But as a European my only concern are foreign policy views of candidates

I understand this, but the health of the American economy affects everyone. Trump’s “policies” are designed to inflate numbers long enough to get him re-elected. But then again, it’s very difficult economists, to say nothing of laypeople, to project how any individual candidate will affect the global economy. (We can’t even figure out how players attacking Randle on a close-out for allegedly the very first time in his career will affect his efficiency.)

Also, I loved The Last Jedi because I enjoy a deconstructionist narrative, and I also love things that are aesthetically compelling and weird.

I didn’t mind the contrarian nature of The Last Jedi, and I thought the Kylo/Rey stuff was pretty interesting.

Overall it’s kind of a dud though because the storytelling is weak. It’s just full of shaggy dog/red herring stuff. It tries so hard to subvert your expectations that it gets kind of tiresome.

Like the whole “is Holdo a traitor” storyline, that is so undercooked. She’s a great rebel war hero! Or maybe not! Wait, she is again! They didn’t really earn the payoff when she does the kamikaze bit.

It’s just clunky and overstuffed. There are some nice moments in it and it’s still better than any of the prequel turds, which are unwatchable.

Its literally the only knock on her is that she made that claim, which is something a lot of white people in this country have done. I hate to say she should stoop to his level, but I think Hillary was a little too nice too Trump and there is sooo much more ammo this time around for a candidate to use against him. It won’t change his supporter’s minds but those who maybe voted for him the first time around and grew tired of his antics need to be reminded.

I understand the angst about any candidate against Trump. The last election and the last few years have been super traumatizing…but we can take this fucker down. Warren can do it. And it would be sweet sweet justice for it to be a woman to do it.

I’m so sick of the double standard.

One candidate openly wants to fuck his daughter, ran a scam university in his name that bilked people out of money with high pressure sales tactics, lies about ten times in public per day, pays off porn stars that he fucked while his wife had recently given birth, and on and on and on. But it’s a deal breaker because Liz Warren fudged her ethnicity once.

Yeah, fuck that.

I’m so sick of the double standard.

One candidate openly wants to fuck his daughter, ran a scam university in his name that bilked people out of money with high pressure sales tactics, lies about ten times in public per day, pays off porn stars that he fucked while his wife had recently given birth, and on and on and on. But it’s a deal breaker because Liz Warren fudged her ethnicity once.

Yeah, fuck that.

+1000%

The double standard is infuriating, doubly so because its coming from the party that supposedly stands for morality and all that bullshit.

If Warren wins the nomination and Trump or any of his surrogates bring that up, she should literally say “is that all you got on me?” And then list all of the things you just said (and more). We shouldn’t play nice this election. That doesn’t mean hurling unprovoked insults without any policy substance. But if attacked, we should fight back hard and not take shit from this clown. The whole air of civility thing went out the window with this ass clown.

Its literally the only knock on her is that she made that claim, which is something a lot of white people in this country have done.

Let me point out why Trump is wishing for Warren or Bernie. I’ll give you the deplorables’ POV that you don’t get in your echo chamber.

The Warren fauxcohantas stuff goes to the soul of her candidacy…. namely she is an exulted egg head Harvard law professor. The notion that she blatantly lied and falsified her application to Harvard undercuts all that. Clearly she thought she needed the boost and likely “took” that job from someone more qualified. But there is worse stuff…. stuff that will sink her when 30 second commercials are blasted round the clock. It will be worse for her than Willie Horton of the tank drive with the oversized helmet was for Dukakis.

Her candidacy is supposed to be that she is all-in for the little guy… especially women…. well…… it seems a big payday from Dow Chemical was more important to get than women suing Dow for leaky implants. She advised Dow (as an expert on bankruptcy ) how to minimize their exposure and minimize their payments to the victim.

Prepare to have this pounded into your melons….don’t say you weren’t warned….

https://www.enidnews.com/news/dow-breast-implant-case-spotlights-elizabeth-warren-s-work-helping/article_154b519a-ad66-11e9-bd4c-7fd7ada3e5bc.html

Oh noes, the GOP is going to unleash a scorched earth smear campaign against the Dem candidate?

Well, I am shocked, I tells you!

Perhaps there is some perfect saint who has never gotten a jaywalking ticket that can run against the guy that is on tape saying he enjoys grabbing women by the pussy.

You realize that sort of hubris is what got a superior candidate beaten last time, amirite? And when there is no good retort to the allegation smarm might be the best policy….

And , by the way the last two R;s that played by the Marquis of Queensbury rules ( sane highly qualified men like McCain and Romney) got schwanzed.

I don’t have any great ideas. The free trade genie and all that cheap labor is out of the bottle, but I am 100% certain unions are not the answer and if you think they are you have no idea how the real world works.

The ironic thing is that strong US trade unions (along with our two-party system that breeds moderation), were probably the most important factor in keeping America from succumbing to fascism during the first half of the 20th century. But who remembers that, right?

Relatively moderate crackpots don’t seem so bad next to Stalin, Mussolini, Hitler, Franco, Mao, et al.

I am sure you are aware Trump’s character is already pretty well baked into the equation at this point, right? You know the deplorables think, ” I know he’s a prick….. but he’s my prick and sometime I want a prick to stand up for me.”

fucking scumbags, fuck all of them

While I 100% agree with the general line of JK47’s argument here I’ll just say that even summarizing it as “she fudged her ethnicity” is giving into the smear in a real way. She was raised being told she was part native american. She repeated these stories and believed they were true, as most of us do with our family lore. It turns out that those stories were…most likely true, based on the genetic testing she had done, but of course it’s a relatively minor sliver of her heritage.

So now, at best, the argument becomes a fairly technical one about affirmative action – how much of a percentage of your heritage should qualify you or whatever. And that’s even conceding that she gained some advantage from this, which the Boston Globe did an extensive investigation and found that she did not (although of course it’s complicated and not something you can really say with 100% certainty). So yeah, as JK47 is saying, no matter who the Ds pick the media machine (which Trump’s one true skill is manipulating) is going to stir up enough junk, and most people’s media literacy is so poor, that all they end up hearing is “Both Liz Warren and DJT have scandals”. But there’s no reason to help it along.

I can’t wait for 2020. Put Warren, or Harris, or hell, Mayor Pete on a debate stage with the stable genius. I can’t wait to see them eat his lunch.

this won’t be some well monitored high school debate…it’s gonna be a cafeteria fight…

Culture eats strategy for breakfast.

i had never heard this before…i like this quote…a good reminder to not forget about the people actually involved, and, to take into account not just where you want to go, but, where you currently are…

And the Warren smear is so laughable when compared to Trump posing as…competent.
or calling himself an environmentalist.
or not racist.
or pro free markets.
or 238 pounds…

Trump’s “policies” are designed to inflate numbers long enough to get him re-elected.

I find it tempting to ascribe his every move to unprincipled monomania. But he’s been singing the same nativist protectionist song for decades. His populist bone fides are mostly real.

Elizabeth Warren is everything Trump is not: thoughtful, well spoken, super intelligent and full of meaningful policy ideas.

Trump’s sadly full of meaningful policy ideas and some are similar to hers. His are a mix: subvert multilateral trade and military agreements and immigration policies on the one hand, and pursue standard GOP small govt, anti-tax, religious liberty policies on the other. EW and BS both support a similar sharp break from old multilateral trade policies: similarly populist, meaningful (important), “radical” (foundation altering), and same intent – protect US workers.

I think Progs’ biggest challenge is to become less tone deaf: communicate with respect and affection for people who disagree with us on religious liberty, immigration, abortion, gun rights, social justice, and the environment. We want to attract Trump-skeptical swing voters who agree with us on some policies, but our pompous assumptions about people who disagree with us on other policies prevents that.

Both Progs and Cons look for the worst overstatement by the other side to avoid serious engagement on the original issue and settle for reaffirming tribe membership. Trump does it on purpose to foster the resentments that build his power. Progs are just tone deaf – we don’t know we sound like smug a-holes to smart decent people who disagree with us. I’m not talking about any KBers. Many Con-leaning undecideds/moderates want an excuse to defect from Trump, but we Progs are too annoyingly self-righteous to identify with.

It’s sad because we’ve forgotten that we actually like each other and it’s dangerous because we definitely need each other.

One candidate openly wants to fuck his daughter, ran a scam university in his name that bilked people out of money with high pressure sales tactics, lies about ten times in public per day, pays off porn stars that he fucked while his wife had recently given birth, and on and on and on. But it’s a deal breaker because Liz Warren fudged her ethnicity once.

If you run as a cunt and act like a cunt, it’s not a big deal. But if you run as a Puritan who will take down corporate greed and your career started with a pathetic lie, it’s gonna hurt. Especially if your opponent is going to call you Pocahantas for the entire campaign.

Besides, wealth tax is a joke.

what i love most about this site – our conservative minded folks here are by and large fairly calm and composed, while many of those with a more liberal leaning are ummmmmmm – pretty feisty, to say the least…

maybe that’s just cuz we’re on the losing team at the moment…

i had never heard this before…i like this quote…a good reminder to not forget about the people actually involved, and, to take into account not just where you want to go, but, where you currently are…

In the current political climate, it’s a euphemistic way of saying, per Iron Mike, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” And since the only thing that Trump seems to be good at is mocking people in service of people who love watching powerful men mock people, that’s exactly what we should plan for.

Um, DeMarcus Cousins in the news again, in a scary way:

https://deadspin.com/demarcus-cousinss-ex-girlfriend-says-he-told-her-im-go-1837623964

yo what?

I think he means if you’re a consistent piece of shit, it won’t hurt you, because the people who voted for your shittiness will feel validated.

It’s the same phenomenon that allows Howard Stern or Charles Barkley to get away with saying anything they want, while others get hung by their necks if we find a mildly offensive tweet from 2013. I don’t get it, but it’s a thing. You can get mad that it’s a thing, but it still is a thing.

The man brushed off “grab em by the pussy”. You think there’s anything he can step in that will cost him an election? He’s not the automatic L y’all think he is. Someone’s going to need to run a good campaign against him.

Warren, IMO, is the only sensible candidate in the field. She has some silly positions but they’re only there to appease the Bernie side of the party and they’ll never be realized. But she is standing on a land mine whether you think it’s fair or not.

Yield curve got worse today; all early market gains today wiped out.

The yield curve is noise. The market is a lagging indicator. And it’s also up nearly 40% since he got elected.

He’s also going to, once again, be getting done a massive favor by”neutral” media coverage that feels obligated to create an equivalency as a first principle. There’s going to, once again, be lots of “Campaigns Trade Barbs Over Scandals” headlines where the fact that what one candidate said is true and what the other said is false is relegated to the 12th graf if it even makes the story at all. And this is in the “liberal” media I’m talking about – the Fox News coverage for the same event; forget about it.

In the last election Democrats did the “they go low, we go high” strategy. Increasingly I’m wondering if it would work to just throw Trump’s strategies back in his face.

Make fun of him and the way he talks. Refuse to shake his hand at the debate. Call him names like “shithole president” and literally make fun of his supporters for being stupid rednecks who are too dumb to know they’re being dupped. This whole air of civility thing…maybe its handicapping us? If they turn around and whine that we’re being disrespectful, literally laugh at them and say, seriously? He started this. We’re just throwing it back in your face.

Ultimately, Trump and his followers are bullies. And most bullies are actually whimps deep down in side with huge insecurities. but they are dangerous because they make people afraid. Punch them in the mouth and point and laugh at them and they slink away. Maybe we need to do that? Is that a crazy strategy?

He’s also going to, once again, be getting done a massive favor by”neutral” media coverage that feels obligated to create an equivalency as a first principle.

100%

Any candidate except Hillary would have beaten Trump in 2016. The fake email scandal and Clinton fatigue caused enough independents to hold their noses and vote for the lesser of 2 evils (Trump, in their minds) and that put him over the top.

Suburban, educated, upper middle class voters in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin aren’t going to do the same thing again if the Democrats put forth a compelling candidate, IMO. I just don’t see him winning those states again in 2020.

I don’t know if it would work, but I’d like to see a Democrat run against Trump’s positions. Last time they just seemed to run against his personality. Look how that worked out for them.

@ 173 – they ran against his personality but they did so with kid gloves on. I think the gloves need to come off this time, at least strategically at key moments. I don’t know what that would look like or what would be too far. But I almost think making fun of him might work. Attacking his character doesn’t seem to work but attacking his intelligence for things like wanting to buy greenland, nuking a hurricane, covfefe…etc..really drive home how unhinged he is.

I do agree though that so much of what happened in 2016 was bc of Clinton fatigue and the fact that many people viewed them as two evils and one was lesser in their mind played into him winning. Remember him saying “its all rigged?” That really played into the whole notion that Clinton was basically coronated by the DNC, which was kind of true because no one dared run against her except Bernie. Its why I like that so many are running for hte nomination this time on the Dem side.

View Amazon fire situation from Conservative perspective: Trump ignites & unites other G7 liberal nations against Brazil & threatens to boycott their meat exports & strong tariffs, if deuchebag president doesn’t deploy army and resources to combat fire; Brazil president throughs a hissy fit at Macron & sends 40,000 troops to the Amazon. Trump tweets that he’s a good president and loves Brazil. Classic chicken & egg game but if this was Obama, he would have send US troops to Amazon and billions of our tax money to put out the fires. Media would have crowned him as a great world leader who saved the planet. Trump gets zero credit for solving the problem without spending a nickel.

Also, FYI – most conservatives do not approve of his uncivil, childish, arrogant petty, nonsense type behavior. But have learned to pull past that.

What’s so strange about the troll’s Amazon post is that it was the EU that played ‘chicken’ (& egg? WTF?) with Bolsonaro and got him to at least pretend to do something, while Trump just offered aid plus troops and said how great he was. Sun rises in the East, GianaDani credits Trump.

@179

played ‘chicken’ (& egg? WTF?)

I laughed, too. I love it when people totally botch metaphors/analogies.

The only thing more pathetic than being stupid as fuck is pretending you’re even stupider than you actually are to get attention from people who hate you

@173 I don’t agree just taking the gloves off would do it. Look at what GianaDani just said

most conservatives do not approve of his uncivil, childish, arrogant petty, nonsense type behavior but have learned to pull past that

Many Trump supporters feel that way and pointing out Trumps warts won’t change the way they feel. You have to point out how his actions have been bad and will be bad. After all, he is destroying the economy, he wants to destroy the world with global warming, and he wants poor people to get sick and die, or at least all his actions are consistent with that desire.

Trump’s polling is super stable and it doesn’t change no matter what happens, good or bad. He toddles along at that same 41-42 percent like clockwork.

You’re not going to win over ANY of that 41-42 percent that supports him. So he has a high floor. The only way that floor drops is if a clear recession happens, then he’d maybe lose a few percentage points worth of support which would probably be fatal in terms of his re-election.

But he also has a low ceiling. Who is he going to win over to add to that 41-42 percent? He completely alienates everybody that isn’t part of his Fox News MAGA chud base. It’s not possible for him to win the general election with a comfortable margin. He might win a squeaker by being as divisive and toxic as possible, and that’s what he’s going to try to do. But outside of the tribe nobody likes him much, and he doesn’t even attempt to win over anybody who isn’t already fully on board.

Grocer, are you talking about the cellphone recording of (allegedly him) threatening to kill his ex-GF?

That’s the one.

I’m sure the President is quite happy to run on his record:

It’s a list of things for which he generally gets (and deserves) no credit cause they’re just continued trends from Obama, coupled with some stuff that is truly horrific (he’s gonna run on illegally caging children without documenting who their parents were and it’s gonna go so badly) and with stuff that is just dumb as hell (if you really think badly thought out tariffs that hurt US companies more than China (especially long term) while they simultaneously undermine the order we’ve profitted off of for decades, if you think that was our only option you know absolutely nothing about international relations or economics). Frankly I expected better from you.

As an Iranian I really want to know more about warren’s view on Iran. you probbly know how it is important for us. I know she stated that Iran is a significant threat to US, and she was against Trump leaving JCPOA, but not much more.

My concern about her dealing with Iran is, her going back to Obama administration’s route. you may be surprised by this, but you read it right. I’m against this government of ours, and I think they should be under constant pressure and be controlled. Obama did put pressure on Iran and made them agree with the nuclear deal. but what happened next? he suddenly gave them freedom to do anything they want in the middle east. was the problem with Iran, just on nukes or theire role in meaddle east too? wasn’t the purpose of Obama policies on Iran to make it a norml government? but why after JCPOA, they suddenly let them do anything they want in Syria, Iraq and yemen? yes, the biggest problem I have with Iran’s government is what they are doing in Syria, and then other countries of middle east. we have many problems in Iran too, but the amount of damage and crime they are doing in the middle east is so big that I think our own problems are nothing compared to them.

now my question is: is Warren going to follow Obama’s policy and let Iran (and Russia) do whatever they want? is she going back to JCPOA and canceling the sanctions? is she going to show them the green light just to look anti war, but in reality letting them literally kill more people?

And yes, I know Trump’s policies weren’t that much successful about Iran. but Iran under this pressure, works more normal and peaceful than vice versa.

My concern about her dealing with Iran is, her going back to Obama administration’s route. you may be surprised by this, but you read it right.

Be careful what you say as your communications may be monitored. One of the most cowardly moments in recent American history was Obama not even giving moral support to the brave people of Iran who were being slaughtered while protesting the fixed election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009.

Iran is a great and ancient society which is greatly admired in America. My/our hearts go out to secular people yearning for freedom everywhere.

There is a school of thought that believes that the next election will be won or lost through the so-called ” swing states” and at this time those states that went for Trump vs.HRG are trending against him:

According to Morning Consult’s tracking poll, Trump’s approval rating in vital swing states has declined significantly since he took office. Take Wisconsin: His approval rating in January 2017 was 47 percent, and his disapproval rating was 41, for a net plus of six percentage points. Now his approval has fallen to 41 while his disapproval has climbed to 55, for a net minus of 14.

The bases seem pretty intractable and so it appears the election will be decided by these and a few more swing states.

mr. bobneptune….

can u point to anything thats trump actually done? i know wbout unemployment.. but what did he do?

Growth and unemployment are demonstrably better the last 2.5 years than the previous 8, or even the last year of O! Especially minority stats….

For which he gets rightly gets little to no credit, having inherited a booming economy from Obama.

I know Trump’s policies weren’t that much successful about Iran. but Iran under this pressure, works more normal and peaceful than vice versa.

It’s there in your post: Obama got concessions. Trump has lost even that, while Iran acts under less constraints than ever. Unless you think capturing oil tankers in the straight is an improvement over just hassling them. It’s even worse, since Trump has also empowered the Sauds who are even more repressive than the Iranians.

I love that we’ve got pro-trump interventionists here, and up thread there are pro-trump non-interventionists, and they are both using the same events.

Iran is a great and ancient society which is greatly admired in America. My/our hearts go out to secular people yearning for freedom everywhere.

Which is why we overthrew the first democratic Iranian government and reinstalled the deeply unpopular Shah, leading to the rise of the current regime. We admire their society and yearning for freedom.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Again you are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. Trump’s approval over the last 15 or so months is about 1.5-2.0% higher than you state. He was as high as 45% in July and sits at 43.2% today.

Since you care deeply about facts I’ll just point out that a simple average is a pretty mediocre methodology given that polls vary significantly in quality, and in particular, some of the polls with significant and consistent conservative lean have been repeatedly shown to be among the worst when it comes time for people to actually vote. The 538 methodology is (in my opinion of course) considerably better and they shown Trump in exactly the range you’re quibbling about. Just a little fyi since you care about facts.

This was one of the more hilarious conservative outrages to me, just because it showed how incapable cons are of thinking about things for longer than a few seconds.

Gee, maybe with every Iranian hardliner bloviating about how the protests were the work of the US and CIA and blah blah blah, Obama thought it wouldn’t be a great look to make himself the face of an Iranian protest movement? Nah, he just sympathizes with Khamenei.

Well…. it appears an actual Iranian (Mehrab) disagrees with your position.

Obama’s stated goal was to rework the US because he saw it as a terribly flawed place. His wife echoed the same precise sentiment in 2008 when she said commenting on Barak running for president, “For the first time in my adult life, I am really proud of my country because it feels like hope is finally making a comeback,”

And vis a vis Iran he certainly did rework policy, infusing the Mullah’s with 29 billion in assets and assorted planeloads of cash, and removing sanctions so they could finance their “adventurism” in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, et al.

With his 4 dimensional chess/America is always wrong brand of foreign policy he left a huge mess with the “Arab Spring” in tatters, Libya destabilized, ” JV Team” reeking havoc all over the Middle East and Iran with pockets full of cash and assets to spread their particular insidious form of hate everywhere. Well played BO!

Do Bush and Cheney bear any responsibility for the mess in the Midde East or nah

Yes, of course they do. Bush was a nitwit and a moron. Its no surprise he made a ton of mistakes that cost us trillions and thousands of soldiers paid the ultimate price. He was a terrible president and possibly one of the worst. But knocking someone else down does not make your guy taller. This is where you go wrong buddy.

FiveThirtyEight has him at 41.3.

538 can use whatever metric they please but note Silver “weights” the polls, “adjusts” the polls and “accounts for uncertainty” (all their own words)

RCP averages many raw polls on a running basis to give an enormous sample size. RCP’s prediction of the 2016 election popular vote was more accurate than 538’s

Do Bush and Cheney bear any responsibility for the mess in the Midde East or nah

“When the facts are on your side, pound the facts…. when the law is on your side …. pound the law… when neither are on your side…. pound the table!”

yo mr bob ‘facts’ neptune…

drop some knowledge on us heathens… what has trump done?

@206

Isn’t reub banned

I think that may be a “chicken or the egg” question!

It’s just the darndest thing because I seem to remember that back in the early aughts people like me were saying the Iraq War was a fucking horrible idea and that Bush was lying through his teeth so him and his PNAC buddies could go and get dat sweet sweet oil money while people like neptune here were turning up the Lee Greenwood jams and buying lots of American flag gear and telling the rest of us we were shitty patriots.

They’re not gonna say “hey you know what, you guys were right, that whole Iraq War thing was a bad idea” because why do that when you can simply pull the “Thanks Obama” card?

paid the ultimate price

This is one ugly phrase. They died in a fucked up, nasty war. It is not measured in dollars or any other coin.

Ok, you use non-park adjusted batting average, I’ll use wRC+ thanks

If we wre talking baseball I might be interested.

However whatever methodology Silver used, RCP’s average outperformed Silver in 2016.

Also pretty LOL tastic is one of the big “house polls” Silver “adjusted” for (Rasmussen) binked the margin of Clinton’s victory in the popular vote better than any other poll! (within 0.4% of the final result)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/rasmussen_reports_calls_it_right

How’d they do in 2018 bob?

@198
To clarify, are you saying you wished the US had invaded Iran during the Arab spring? I’m unclear what the complaint is because there’s no path of action beyond inaction that seems like it would have positive consequences.

@200
Not at all. where did that come from? I said he did nothing to prevent Iran’s regime invading Syria. and let them have the upper hand there along with Russia. and what was the result? you know…
And Obama did the same thing in Iraq too, letting Iran to be the most powerful side there.

Wait, you too didn’t make millions from stock buybacks?

Going after Trump using Stormy or that tool called Mueller is fair game as other side did the same with birth certificate, bengazi, etc..all big nothing burgers…BUT putting out negative sentiment to jump start a recession in order to win politically is pure evil. The number of people lives ruined by a typical recession is in the millions, i.e. job losses and small business bankruptcies cause divorces, suicides, drug abuse etc… both parties are pretty much bought and paid for, – so it matters very little to our daily lives who sits in the white house and plays golf half the year..but recessions really do matter.

@223

Copy that, I thought you were complaining about Obama not providing support to Iranian protesters. I wasn’t sure what you were asking for. I’m still not sure tbh, since Russia was already in Syria, being a close ally of the Assad regime, and Iran was there mostly supporting anti-ISIS fighters.

Syria was and is a horrific situation, but I have no idea how the US could have actually improved the situation. Trump’s solution appears to be whatever catches his eye at the moment, it’s not really achieved anything either. Again, not entirely his fault on this one, there are no good options.

On Iraq, again, I’m confused. Bush signed an agreement with their first democratically elected government to get out since we we’re pretty universally hated. What was Obama supposed to do?

I missed the news that Ron Baker signed with CSKA Moscow! Rumors suggest that Gulianni facilitated the signing.

geo ftw

Trump is functionally illiterate and morally bankrupt

Making sure the dark skinned know their place is the central defining element of MAGA, so dialing up some Twitter beef while Puerto Rico is about to experience terrible suffering is right on brand.

The redhats love this stuff.

Hubert, pretty much every economist is saying a recession is going to happen in the next year.

Statements like this make me think you don’t even know what an economist is.

Are they all just Trump hating fake news media people?

No, but they’re trying to sell you something and are desperate for attention. You should not be getting your economic news from television or the internet. If you are, just assume you’re wrong and don’t comment on it.

The hacks you’re listening to are saying there is going to be a recession for one of two reasons:

1. They want attention (on TV, twitter, whatever).
2. They want to sell you their product that is going to save you from losing money when the recession that they’ve scared you about comes.

The wishcasters at Forbes aren’t too thrilled with the state of the Cass Freight Index:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/patrickwwatson/2019/07/01/freight-slowdown-is-a-terrible-sign-for-the-economy/amp/

Lol. Forbes? Ok.

This is like me saying Ariel Pink is a hack and posting a link where Bill Simmons says so as proof.

The good thing about all this discussion is that it makes me less terrified about what’s happening in Brazil, seeing as the same stupid mechanisms to divert blame from Bolsonaro are at place in the US too. I guess were not the only place where people actively support fascist idiots while still claiming neutrality in 2019.

aren’t recessions though an inevitable part of a country’s economic cycle…like at least one or two years every decade…

or, are you just saying it’s one of those: “even a broke clock is right twice a day” kind of things…meaning the indicators may not all be there to support that belief, but it is coming sooner or later…

cuz, to be honest, just looking at dates (without really knowing the criteria to classify a period as a “recession”) – sure looks like we’re due…

I’m saying a few things, geo.

One is that there’s a lot of hacks who go on tv or write articles claiming the recession is on the way. If you’re right, you’re “the guy who predicted the recession”. If you’re wrong, no one remembers. So you’ll always have people screaming that a recession is coming.

In this particular case, a recession could come, because no one knows what Trump is willing to do. If he continues to escalate this trade war, a recession is likely. So now you have even more people than normal calling for a recession. Predicting a recession right now is basically predicting Trump will screw this up. It’s not a bad bet.

The other thing I’m saying is that the state of the economy without all this self-inflicted pain is actually quite strong (although Bron’s point is valid, and I alluded to it in my first post; but debt doesn’t cause recessions until you can’t issue more, and we’re nowhere near that point). It’s been depicted here as a ticking time bomb that Trump needs to wait out. It’s actually the opposite. I referred to it as an oak tree that he’s swinging an axe at, but it’s also like a hose that he’s kinking. If he stops kinking it at the right time, the hose will blow.

There’s also a ton of misinformation that’s out there either to scare you or because it’s partisan. The inverted yield curve, for instance, is very misunderstood. And every time the market “tanks”, people are focusing too much on the raw number and not the percentage. An 800 point move was a big deal when the market was at 8,000. It’s not that important when it’s at 25,000. And that doesn’t even get into the fact that the percentage of money invested that’s in market stocks is probably the lowest in my life bc of private equity and derivatives.

All of this is to say, if you’re looking at the 2020 election, the economy is much more likely to be a tailwind than a headwind.

okay then…seeing how every once in a while we’ll veer off in to some interesting musical forays…so, at the moment my internet connection at work isn’t working so great – so, no you tube or sirius to get my tunes fix…needed to dig in to my own library for a moment…

came across this – i double dare anyone to say they ever heard this song before – and, after hearing it, not thinking it’s the most wonderful, feel good tune in the world…

as an extra added bonus – it answers the grand question of: what does it take to live a life of happiness?

Jordan 3s are being released in a Knicks colorway but…

Finally, the model is topped off with “04.08.88” listed behind the tongue to reference the “The Virus Game,” in which Michael Jordan played with a stomach virus and scored 47 points to lead the Chicago Bulls to victory against the Knicks.

I like them but there’s not a chance in hell I would ever wear them.

If you don’t choose a side you’ll always automatically side with the people who are already in power. It’s very simple.

yeah, i’m a habitual sideline sitter for sure…finally watched an old movie the other day that i’ve been being meaning to catch for a long time: boondock saints…had always heard really good things about it, and, they were true…

a quote within the movie really struck a chord with me and made me think about that kind of neutral approach to things:
Now, we must all fear evil men, but there is another kind of evil, which we must fear most, and that is, the indifference of good men.

he could be quiz kid donnie smith when it comes to the economy…that still don’t make him a moral man and a good leader…

Yeah I can’t believe there’s some asshole hounding Trump and claiming he’s not a US citizen

Maybe the “pin in the grenade” language I used is what’s bothering Hubert, and I can see why. It’s probably not a pin/grenade situation like the 2008 crash. But there do seem to be lots of indicators that we’re at high risk for a recession. Which doesn’t make it a certainty, for sure. Sooner or later there’s one coming, this has been a very long period of expansion.

I must be desperate for some rootable basketball. I was watching Uncle Drew for the first time and found myself cheering the Rucker final.

I mean, okay, but you said there were no indications and that’s false. Also the bond market is showing bad signs, I dunno what you’re talking about. It’s a little weird you think jobs numbers don’t matter as well but you know. You do you. I hope you don’t get caught out. I hope it doesn’t happen. We’re definitely not prepared for it as a country. Dems certainly don’t need it to beat Trump.

I must be desperate for some rootable basketball. I was watching Uncle Drew for the first time and found myself cheering the Rucker final.

I found myself watching a bit of the WNBA this off-season. Been some pretty good games tbh. Plus World Cup start next week.

@264

We are a little light on big men, so looking into insurance isn’t a bad idea. I mean, it’s not as if we signed 4 or 5 bigs this off-season….

It’s not just regular Americans who fall for that. Plenty of people on Wall Street are fooled either bc they’re too lazy to do the work or they lack conviction in themselves.

Credit, that’s a fair answer to what I’m hearing. Not sure I buy into the lazy or conviction, but it is a straight answer. These folks frequently get shit wrong.

We could definitely use a shot blocker, and I love UCONN players, but Thabeet???

Idk, we don’t have room on the actual roster anyway.

The troubling signs in the bond market are more about fear of a policy mistake than signs of a bad economy. A policy mistake can cause a recession when all the signs are great. Trump is clearly capable of an incredible policy mistake, so yeah that’s a problem.

On the other side, Sanders is pretty much promising to deliver a policy mistake. He’s the last guy you should want in charge if you’re afraid of a recession.

I assume Biden would just appoint from the same pool as Obama, which is fine. He’s probably the best candidate if all you want is for the economy to keep on humming without policy mistakes.

Warren is a more palpable slice of Sanders. She’ll hurt the markets but she’s sensible enough not to do anything stupid. Her v Trump is a fascinating choice from a market POV. Trump implements policies that stimulate the markets but he also threatens to derail the whole economy. Warren would probably stifle markets but be wise enough to keep the economy on track.

hubert is right about the finance part…. i’m not in finance but closely attached to it in both my professional and personal life… and let me tell you… there are very few ppl who actually know what they are doing…. they might talk the talk… they might get fat bonus checks…. they could even be billionaires…. but that does not make them oracles…. but they very very often get treated as such….

someone telling you anything is certain about the market is really just trying to make a name for themselves…. nothing in the market is certain… and just like at the casino there is no such thing as we’re due…. there will be a recession at some point… but getting the timing down is a fool’s errand…. even the guys who proclaim they got the dotcom and housing crisis right… they probably were right for the wrong reasons… or there strategy and mindset made them get that one thing right but fail at everything else….

john paulson and david einhorn were like that.. rockstar hedge fund managers that got one large bet right but can’t manage to do anything else…. they are very very smart guys…. but even the most brilliant guy doesn’t know everything…. and in the markets nobody has that knowledge to rely on them consistently… not anybody at these big hedge funds… even the quant guys… not anybody at the fed… and not even warren buffet who i respect a ton….

i will disagree on the inverted yield curve… there’s a lot that goes into it… but some fear of a policy mistake is not one of them…. policy takes a long time to take any material effect if at all… and bond rates would not go down on the back of some economic policy that would probably get backtracked once trump leaves office…. there’s a lot more other factors to pay attention to… the current trade war… brexit…. and yes the us economy…..

this reminds me of arguments about Tyson Chandler in the wake of their 18-6 run when he was injured

Hubert, its very easy to dismiss any indications the economy is about to go into a recession if your main argument boils down to anyone who thinks the economy might go into a recession is ignorant or a fear monger. You’ve said that about 3 different times to points people have brought up. Its kind of like calling anything you disagree with “fake news.”

Maybe you’re right. But you have to admit…there are indications that the economy is slowing down. Maybe some of those indications don’t always mean the economy is going to go into a recession, but its not like there’s just one indication, there are several. Manufacturing has also slowed down recently.

Admittedly I’m not an economist and I don’t work in finance. But I do read a lot and not just from the same news sources. I hop around a lot to get different perspectives. Its not just anti-Trump people saying this.

Congrats!!!!

$$$$$$$$$$ congrats JK $$$$$$$$$$$

take that sweet network money and run

Congrats, JK

Look, I may be wrong about 80% of the shit I talk here

bookmarked 🙂

i can just imagine sitting down with my financial advisor, hubert to talk about my money, when he starts the conversation off by telling me:

“you know, nobody really knows what the fuck is going to happen…we’re all just really taking shots in the dark here”…

what???

I must say this political/economical thread is much much more interesting than the average BB thread during the season.

ditto times a thousand…money is like sports – it’s fairly easy to keep score (except for cricket of course – who knows what the hell is going on there)…

Melo is participating in 5-on-5 scrimmages with the Knicks this week. We do need a veteran PF, right?

Congrats JK47! That’s huge. I’ll definitely check it out.

Congrats JK. Five seasons and a movie!

Personally, as a more free market oriented person I am generally in favor of free trade and against tariffs. I will say though, I believe I’ve been subtly wrong about this for the last 30 years. I knew we’d lose a lot of jobs (even Ross Perot told us that), but I expected standards of living would rise in 3rd world countries faster they have and even things out. The thing is, with the fall of communism the supply of cheap labor has been almost endless. It’s decades now and most of the benefits are still going to foreigners and people whose jobs remained in the US that have enough money to invest. Cheaper goods were not enough to offset the damage.

We’ve gutted much of the middle class. I now think free trade only works well if you have a 50+ year outlook (very long term) OR you are trading with countries with similar tax rates, regulations, standards of living, no subsidizing etc… If not, you can get screwed (and 10s of million of Americans did get screwed while we helped create great wealth elsewhere and at home for “some”).

As to tariffs, if that’s what it takes to get other countries to the table to negotiate more balanced trade agreements, I don’t give a care if we have to suffer from a multi year slowdown and the president takes political heat for it from short term thinkers. The only thing that matters is whether we eventually get them to the table and get a more balanced deal. It may be up to the next president to have the will to stick it out and be less abrasive with foreign countries trying to get it done.

He’s right about that. Except for Warren no Democrat has much more than pie in the sky promises and attacks on Trump the man and his personality.

That’s because Trump’s anti free trade and pro worker rhetoric “used to be” the job of the left. Also, much of their constituency is against wide open borders even though the elites know it strengthens the left’s position politically in the short term (until they assimilate and start moving to the center and right just like immigrants before them).

Right now people mostly want higher paying jobs and controlled legal immigration at a pace that allows us to assimilate everyone without putting strains on local communities, social services, law enforcement, schools, hospitals etc… The want it be back to way it used to be a few decades ago (and by this I am not saying “white”, I am saying a strong vibrant middle class and controlled legal immigration)

So instead of attacking his general policy goals, they are attacking his wildly flawed personality, divisive and abrasive rhetoric, and his ways of trying to accomplish what the consensus wants.

In other words, he’s a racist, he’s a Russian spy, he’s crazy, he’s out of control etc… Some of that may be true. In fact, all of it may be true except the Russian spy garbage, but he’s not a conservative. He’s a populist that made inroads into the left’s constituency. That’s why there are people on both the left and right that hate him. He’s not a true republican/conservative. He’s a hybrid that’s causing problems for both sides.

The markets are artificially up also because of the tax cut,

There’s nothing artificial about letting a corporation keep 14% more of its earnings.

And by the way, the S&P is down 1% over the past year and only up .5% since Jan. 2018. S&P is actually up 26% since Inauguration day, but has largely been flat for 19 months.
The Dow is down 3% since January 2018, 19 months, and the Dow is up only 30% since Inauguration day.

Good lord, the cherry picking. Let’s keep to the same rules that apply to basketball. You can’t use Inauguration Day as your starting point and pretend the market didn’t know he got elected 2.5 months earlier.

Anyway, I haven’t said anything about the trump market. I know he’s juiced it. I was countering the people who come out here and say “trump is tanking the market”. That bullshit’s been going on since 2015. He’s not bad for the markets. Move off that point and on to the million other things he’s bad for.

But you have to admit…there are indications that the economy is slowing down. Maybe some of those indications don’t always mean the economy is going to go into a recession, but its not like there’s just one indication, there are several. Manufacturing has also slowed down recently.

Admittedly I’m not an economist and I don’t work in finance. But I do read a lot and not just from the same news sources. I hop around a lot to get different perspectives. Its not just anti-Trump people saying this.

I don’t disagree with any of this I’m just telling you these problems come from the way he’s using tarriffs. So unlike most causes of economic slowdown, it’s one that’s easy to reverse.

What’s going to happen is trump is going to strike a deal with China. Whether it’s good or not won’t matter. He’ll say it’s good. Half the country will believe him and half will say it was a ploy. Regardless of who is right, everyone’s going to be excited that it’s over so it will *feel* like a big win for him and that’s all that matters.

Mark it down. I feel even more confident about that than betting the under on the Knicks.

I recently read a Wall St report that said that “so far’ (and I stress “so far”), the theory that the tariffs would be passed on to US businesses and consumers is not happening. So far, most of the costs are being eaten outside the US or there have been currency adjustments to offset them.

My company makes a product that I am certain you have several of in your home (whether mine or a competitor’s). The “net cost” price went up 15% after the tariff announcement and has not fallen. I’m telling you this as a person on the front lines who sees price realization and for this one, you’re seeing an increase of 10-12% on this product alone. There are three value-add stages between me and the end-user (sub-contractor, general contractor, owner/stakeholder), which are not necessarily a flat adder.

When tariffs were announced, every major manufacturer in my field announced price increases. It was hilarious watching large buying corporations send out memos that say, “We will NOT absorb tariff increases into our project commitments,” and hear that the response from all manufacturing management was something like, “Okay, we’ll cancel your POs. Enjoy your search for a cheaper product.”

Maybe every other industry is different, but in my $40B field (a number that only accounts for manufacturing, not distribution, contracting or design services), it certainly has made its effects felt.

China’s domestic spending is growing daily, which is offsetting the tariffs somewhat. Plus, they are expanding sales around the Asia Pacific region and elsewhere. As for imports, I’m not certain, but they are likely getting better deals on things like soybeans, for instance, from other countries. That’s money that will never come back to the US.
China can sit on this “war” through the 2020 election if they don’t get exactly what they want. And I’m sure the last thing they want to do at this point is create a “win” for Trump.
If I were China, I’d stop talks altogether until they can deal with the next president (fingers crossed).

fuck all this high level shit – somebody give me 3 weed stocks that’ll let me retire in five years…please 🙂

that’s what I really wanna know…

Well you can stick a fork in the Mets so bring on Elfridsanity I guess

Your blameless President commissioned a felony for which his personal attorney is doing prison time, and for which he himself was named as an unindicted co-conspirator.

Which one?

melo was always meant to be a nyet…

Hubert is right

Back to Trump, the yield curve, and analogies that may or may not be helpful: he is definitely using his power to produce outcomes that would help him get reelected. Many expect him to strike a deal with China before the election that will boost the economy, bc that’s what he needs to get reelected. The problem is what he’s doing is very dangerous and can backfire easily. That’s why you have bond traders showing fear. It’s like he’s playing Russian roulette with a gun. Trump is extremely confident because he thinks he has taken all the bullets out of the revolver. We’re all scared because we know he’s off his rocker so there’s a good chance he left one in the chamber.

The Yield Curve, FYI, is just a picture of bond investor confidence. That’s literally all it is. It is not predictive, as much as people want you to believe it is. All recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve but not all inverted yield curves signaled a recession. Sometimes the bond market just gets spooked.

Also, fwiw, bond investors and economists frequently disagree with each other. To the point that they’re almost like rival communities of advanced NBA statisticians who support different models (PER v RIPM, etc).

Is it too early for me to open the Lagavulin 16? 🙂

Never too early for that!

JK, my wife passed this along re: Bernie…feel free to share it with your facebook buddy.

This was awesome. It made me like the guy even more.

Bernie’s the son of a poor immigrant who managed to raise a middle class family just like me.

Refused to fight in the Vietnam War, the illegal and inhumane invasion of a decolonized nation which resulted in the deaths of thousands of innocent civilian casualties, like I would’ve done.

Went to a public college and then excelled there enough to transfer to a prestigious private university just like me.

Was unable to find gainful employment throughout much of his adult life like countless Americans who live below the poverty level today, making him sympathetic to their plight.

Supported the Sandanistas in their anticolonial struggle against Reagan era death squads who massacred villages and priests.

And he has an ex who refuse to badmouth him, which is a Herculean task for any man.

I’m going to share this on social media!

Ntilikila is tied for the worst

And I meant Hubert is right about distrusting any advisor who claims to know the future

Ntilikila is tied for the worst

That’s right, blame the brown guy, we’re used to it.

Congrats, JK, on your new gig!

Yeah, wow, I’d wondered if the Mets were “peaking” too soon, and now 6 losses in a row, all at home. The Phillies could put the final nails in the Mets coffin this weekend, but maybe the streaky Mets rebound and linger on the fringe of the Wild Card chase for a bit longer?

Hubert is spot on. Predicting whats going to happen in the future is the same in financial industry as is in the rest of life. Who can predict next years finals MVP or exactly where Dorian is going to hit with what force? Science and statistics help make educated guesses. Thats all.

Raising noise about an impeding recession using immaterial facts in order to effect change in business and consumer confidence (70% of economy) to gain power is pure evil. Anyone who repeats china trade noise which in total effects 2.9% of our GDP is a tool. Punks on the other side did the same thing threatening with with Greece and PIGS contagion to Obama. Many of the same paid and bought for “expert” talking heads. This is an EVIL play in standard political books.

Our economy may very well be so strong and resilient right now that if we were unified like we were during the height of cold war against communism, – we won’t enter a recession even if we put sanctions on China and completely stopped trading with them.

a crazy person is driving the car. I know where we are, though.

Crazy people have been driving the car since December 23, 1913 (the day we created the Fed).

Haha. Not touching that, Strat.

My gold mining stocks are doing great in this environment. If the crazies bring QE Infinity and negative nominal interest rates to these shores I may be able to buy court side Knicks season tickets next to Spike. lol

@191 Mehrab
EW’s votes, cosponsored senate bills, and public statements suggest she’s likely to continue the gradual movement away from direct US military involvement in the region. That means decreased pressure to prevent Iran from “doing whatever it wants” in nearby countries, as you say. She’ll likely prefer sanctions and diplomacy as the means of pursuing US objectives.

Her objectives re Iran would probably be similar to current and past ones: reduce or contain its military power and political influence; make it more democratic and friendly toward Western liberal democracies.

She’ll probably want to revive the JCPOA. She criticized Trump’s withdrawal. She’ll reverse Trump’s unqualified backing of the Saudis in Yemen. She cosponsored S.J.Res.7, a joint resolution “to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities in the Republic of Yemen that have not been authorized by Congress” which was vetoed by Trump. She might check Saudi aspirations for greater influence in the region more broadly. She cast several votes to block arms sales to Saudi Arabia and voted against tabling S.J.Res.39, a joint resolution disapproving of arms sales to them. So, she’s likely to give less support to one of Iran’s regional rivals.

She’d probably keep current sanctions targeting Iranian-allied groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.

My guess is that neither a republican nor a democratic president are very likely to initiate sustained military pressure on Iran’s direct or indirect actions in other countries. John Bolton, the National Security Adviser, is an exception to what seems like a broad consensus that we should reduce our regional role after years of costly and mismanaged efforts there.

Signals that the US is prepared to go to war with Iran are probably just posturing.

Her checks on Russia would likely be stronger than Trump’s and would be done with allies.

What actions by Iran in other countries do you find disturbing?

Is it too early for me to open the Lagavulin 16? 🙂

Never too early for that!

Last night my wife and I went out after seeing my daughter’s college volleyball debut. I ordered a Lagavulin 16 on the rocks and was charged $9!! That stuff is the best!

It’s ironic that Ntilakilla dismisses the Bernie Bro narrative while simultaneously shouting down all non-Bernie opinions.

I like Bernie, I find many of his supporters intolerable.

That’s totally fair, but the “bro” narrative really is empirically false. Here’s just one example from Pew–of all the candidates running, his base is more non-white, and made up of more women, than anyone else’s. If my understanding of the “bro” narrative is correct…it’s really just flatly wrong.

I don’t have any great theories about why people find his supporters so aggravating, but to give it a shot, it’s clear they’re younger, less educated, and more disenchanted with politics than most political coalitions. I would imagine these factors lead them to engage in discourse in a manner most political junkie/media types find unusual.