Knicks Morning News (2019.01.15)

  • [Sports Illustrated] NBA Trade Rumors: Knicks, Bulls Discuss Trade Involving Enes Kanter, Jabari Parker
    (Monday, January 14, 2019 6:06:48 AM)

    Get the latest scoops, news and rumors as the NBA trade deadline approaches.

  • [NYDN] Knicks’ darling Zion Williamson has career night but it isn’t enough to save Duke
    (Monday, January 14, 2019 6:55:00 PM)

    Knicks’ darling Zion Williamson had a career night two days after getting poked in the eye. But it wasn’t enough to save Duke.

    Williamson scored a career-best 35 points but was overshadowed by Tyus Battle, who scored a season-high 32 points, and Syracuse used its 2-3 zone defense to rattle No….

  • [Hoops Rumors] Knicks Sign Kadeem Allen To Two-Way Contract
    (Monday, January 14, 2019 3:41:18 PM)

    2:41pm: The Knicks have officially signed Allen to a two-way contract, the team announced today in a press release. 9:24am: The Knicks will fill their open two-way slot in advance of Tuesday’s deadline by signing G League guard Kadeem Allen, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). New York started the season with Isaiah […]

  • [Hoops Rumors] Knicks Have Explored Kanter, Parker Trade Scenario
    (Monday, January 14, 2019 11:57:30 AM)

    As the Knicks attempt to find a new home for Enes Kanter, one scenario recently discussed by the team would see New York acquire Bulls forward Jabari Parker, reports Stefan Bondy of The New York Daily News. Both Kanter ($18.6MM) and Parker ($20MM) are on pricey expiring contracts, and the Knicks were previously cited as […]

  • [NBA] New York Knicks Sign Kadeem Allen to Two-Way Contract
    (Monday, January 14, 2019 11:09:12 AM)

    NEW YORK, January 14, 2019 – The New York Knicks announced today that the team has signed guard Kadeem Allen

  • [SNY Knicks] Nets fans chant ‘Kyrie’s leaving!’ against Celtics
    (Monday, January 14, 2019 10:43:47 PM)

    Though Kyrie Irving has said he plans to re-sign with Boston, some fans in New York don’t believe that will be the case. Brooklyn fans, specifically.

  • [SNY Knicks] Potential Knicks draft target Zion Williamson has a new career high
    (Monday, January 14, 2019 9:30:42 PM)

    Potential Knicks draft target and star Duke freshman Zion Williamson scored a career-high 35 points in his eighth double-double of the season.

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks sign G Kadeem Allen to two-way contract
    (Monday, January 14, 2019 9:15:04 AM)

    Allen has performed well in 25 games in the G League.

  • [NYTimes] Keeping Score: James Harden, the N.B.A.’s One-Man Band, Hits a High Note
    (Tuesday, January 15, 2019 6:54:22 AM)

    Harden’s 57 points against Memphis accounted for more than half of his team’s total helping make up for his lack of a supporting cast.

  • [NYTimes] Cavaliers’ Handling of Patrick McCaw Broke No Rules, N.B.A. Finds
    (Tuesday, January 15, 2019 1:01:39 AM)

    The Golden State Warriors had held McCaw’s rights until the deal, raising concerns that Cleveland was a planned pit stop en route to unrestricted free agency for McCaw.

  • [NYTimes] N.B.A. Mid-Season Power Rankings: The Warriors Are Not No. 1. For Now.
    (Monday, January 14, 2019 8:00:10 AM)

    A season of surprises has reached a turning point, with some Eastern Conference leaders facing their first real challenges, and the West bracing itself for a Warriors surge.

  • [NYPost] London trip could bring return of Knicks rookie
    (Monday, January 14, 2019 5:57:28 PM)

    Rookie center Mitchell Robinson has missed the past 13 games because of ankle and groin injuries, but he could be back in time for Thursday’s showcase with the Wizards in London. “Yeah, maybe,” coach David Fizdale said Monday after practice. “We’re shooting for that game, for him to be back. We’re going to look at…

  • [NYPost] On-the-rise Ja Morant could ease Knicks’ Zion Williamson landing
    (Monday, January 14, 2019 3:31:13 PM)

    Is there another road other than “The Road to Zion?” While Knicks fans are going gaga over Duke man-child and potential No. 1 pick Zion Williamson, college basketball analyst Seth Greenberg is saying nah and hailing Ja. That is Murray State sophomore point guard Ja Morant, climbing ferociously up the mock-draft boards alongside some of…

  • [NYPost] Knicks combating biggest travel fear before heading to London
    (Monday, January 14, 2019 2:49:01 PM)

    First stop for the Knicks in London? Yoga. Sightseeing and basketball will come later, but during and after their journey across the pond on a red-eye flight Monday night for Thursday’s showdown with the Wizards at O2 Arena, the Knicks will place a premium on making sure their bodies and minds are ready for tipoff….

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    Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

    144 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2019.01.15)”

    1. Knicks’ darling Zion Williamson had a career night two days after getting poked in the eye. But it wasn’t enough to save Duke.

      Williamson scored a career-best 35 points but was overshadowed by Tyus Battle, who scored a season-high 32 points, and Syracuse used its 2-3 zone defense to rattle No….

      That’s it. Trade him!

    2. Porzingis might become a 7’3” James Harden, taking 95% (or whatever) of his shots at the rim and beyond the arc, instantly transforming into a guy who scores 25 PPG on .600 TS%. Or maybe he doesn’t. Right now, he’s an inefficient scorer with a glaring weakness that a bunch of dummies on Knickerblogger can diagnose and prescribe a solution to. Whether he ever has a coach that empowers him to do that is a whole other story.

      From yesterday’s thread– really hard to know what will happen with KP. If I remember correctly, when he was the alpha on the Eurobasket in 2017 he was scoring the way a modern big should score, and not throwing up a bunch of crap from 18 feet. Regardless, it’s the coach’s job to get the guy to buy in.

    3. KP’s passing needs a lot of improvement. He and Knox are both black holes as of now, and that’s not a good look. I think the shot selection can be fixed.

    4. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them! says:

      What you don’t see in those Denver-era highlight montages are the most difficult shot attempts regularly taken by an NBA player, which, even if he were the league’s best at them, were missed with alarming frequency.

      Porzingis might become a 7’3” James Harden, taking 95% (or whatever) of his shots at the rim and beyond the arc, instantly transforming into a guy who scores 25 PPG on .600 TS%. Or maybe he doesn’t. Right now, he’s an inefficient scorer with a glaring weakness that a bunch of dummies on Knickerblogger can diagnose and prescribe a solution to. Whether he ever has a coach that empowers him to do that is a whole other story.

      On Wall St, what you are doing is called “rear view mirror” investing. You are looking at what the company earned in the past and valuing it (or in this case past basketball stats and players). But that’s not how you value companies or basketball players. The way you value things is by projecting the future (within reason and partly based on the past) and giving yourself some margin of safety because no one makes perfect projections.

      So one could say on a “rear view mirror” basis KP is an in efficient scorer that doesn’t rebound well or make plays. However, a reasonable projection of the future must include the ease with which his shot selection could be tweaked and generate better efficiency, his age, the fact that’s he was ridiculously thin and weak coming in, and of course the greater injury risk. The net of that makes him a lot better than the rear view mirror if he stays healthy.

      Everyone here and around the NBA sees what you see. But some of us are looking through the windshield instead of the rear view mirror. The debate is about what’s coming, not what happened.

    5. I’ll take KP the black hole if he cracks .600 TS% on high efficiency. Dirk was a bad passer — even at his best, he averaged 5.1 AST/100 — but never as bad as Porzingis, whose 2.4 mark in his rookie season was a career high.

      The rebounding is never going to change. I will eat my hat if he’s ever even an average PF/C rebounder.

    6. On Wall St, what you are doing is called “rear view mirror” investing. You are looking at what the company earned in the past and valuing it (or in this case past basketball stats and players). But that’s not how you value companies or basketball players. The way you value things is by projecting the future (within reason) and giving yourself some margin of safety because no one makes perfect projections.

      You’re right. We should discard his catastrophic knee injury, 37th percentile scoring and complete inability to pass or rebound the ball, because no one makes perfect projections and past on-court performance is not relevant to future performance.

      This is some crazy shit, man. This is how you get Bargnani and Mudiay and Hezonja and Eddy Curry and Jerome James on your roster — by ignoring the mountains of evidence that they have no idea how to play winning basketball.

    7. First of all, this isn’t wall street. The lessons of wall street and the likelihood that the past differs from the future are different.

      Second, even if I admit the NBA is like wall street, I can’t concede that stocks reliably improve based on a few indicators and wishes when there’s even more warning signs.

      KP’s value right now is dependent on his defense. Even if his offense improves, he can’t pass or rebound. He’s problematic at best.

    8. So when you look at a company who has been very mediocre for their entire existence, then has a big issue where they can’t produce for an entire year, do you pay a huge amount of money for their stocks just because they’re a young company or because you trust the new management to somehow unlock their hidden potential?

      Even if we admit what is pretty obviously a very flawed analogy, it still seems pretty stupid.

    9. It’s amazing how pretty much everyone on this board knows that maxing KP is going to be a mistake. I wish some of Dolan’s cronies stumbled upon KB to take the red pill.

    10. On Wall St, what you are doing is called “rear view mirror” investing. You are looking at what the company earned in the past and valuing it (or in this case past basketball stats and players). But that’s not how you value companies or basketball players. The way you value things is by projecting the future (within reason and partly based on the past) and giving yourself some margin of safety because no one makes perfect projections.

      Utter nonsense.

      Definition of projection: a calculation or guess about the future based on information that you have.

      What we have on Porzingis is not very encouraging – for the purpose of projecting a future star, of course.

    11. With the Celtics imploding, it is extremely important for someone to tell Kyrie that the situation will be even worse at MSG. Friendly warning sort of thing. For example, just because you filed with the SEC doesn’t mean that you don’t need to make adjustments to that filing in the future.

    12. It’s amazing how pretty much everyone on this board knows that maxing KP is going to be a mistake

      I don’t know this

    13. I don’t know. I think there’s maybe one in twenty who doesn’t think so. It’s the Melo Mega Max again.

    14. When drafted KP was a start-up. Everyone on wall street knew this start up had a lot of potential but that they were several years away from being a profitable company. But the start up exceeded expectations initially, raising the interest of investors everywhere. But then the issues that everyone said would be issues in the beginning appeared and all of those investors who just a few years ago hadn’t even heard of the company, are now getting skittish as the IPO arrives. The question is whether that initial group of believers will stay strong and continue to invest in the company as it shores up its weaknesses or will another investment firm, maybe one based out of San Antonio, will swoop in and then give the IPO the structural support it needs to succeed.

    15. Its not the melo mega max. Melo was nearing 30 when Phil handed him that contract. KP is 23. Melo also was never a good defensive player even in his prime. KP is a good to great defensive player. Somehow that side of the ball always gets lost on this site.

      I get being nervous about giving KP a max. I’m nervous as hell about it. I hope they’re some injury protections in his new contract. But its not the same situation as mega max Melo at all. If we sign KP to the max, we don’t have to immediately be a winning team because he’s going to still be at his peak (if he stays healthy) when this next contract comes up. Think about that. If KP signs a max contract with us, when that contract ends, he will be the same age Melo was when he signed his first contract with us, not the one that Phil handed him.

      We could sign KP to the max and tank for another season if we wanted.

    16. KP ranked 39th in RPM among ALL players in the league in 2017-18. Only 3 players younger than him were ranked higher. He was ranked 68th the previous year. That’s gotta be encouraging if you believe, like I do, that RPM is a better metric than BPM/WS/PER/WP, especially for players who make a strong impact on defense.

      KP’s injury and stamina, of course, have to be factored in. A very worrisome part to me not often mentioned is his work ethic and mindset. I think he wants to be perceived as a star more than he wants to be a quality top tier player. Remember the Hornacek P3@$Y comment? Then there were the reports of him not putting in as many hours to improve in his 2nd year compared to his first. And there are other indicators. KP might just keep on chuckin’ inefficient shots in order to avg 25+.

      I think most would be happy if Phil had traded KP for Booker and #4 pick if Phil then parlayed the pick into Fox. But what if Jackson had selected Jackson instead? Yikes! That’s why I’d max him before trading him for any pick in this draft other than #1 Zion. The team will be able to observe KP in workouts before shelling out the max but then it could be a tricky situation if he looks very limited. Our best hope is to include him in a package for Davis but I doubt KP wants to play in the bayou.

    17. The problem is that everytime you sign someone for the max and they don’t produce like a max player, you’re actually handicapping yourself for no reason. And we’ve seen that happen too many times with this owner not to recognize the pattern. Peak KP pre-ACL (November 2017) was deserving of the max. Every other stretch of KP’s career thus far calls for at best THJ’s salary.

    18. this is the best investment advice i’ve ever given. stay the fuck off the wall street metaphor train.

    19. I looked at Kristaps, Bargs & Dirk at age 22 and the first thing that jumps out is Bargs is on another level of being a shitty rebounder. Kristaps is not a good rebounder, but he’s also not as bad as the people saying ‘Kristaps can’t rebound’ make it out. Bargnani could not rebound. He rebounded like a guard. Kristaps is a relatively poor rebounder. Second is Kristaps took way more shots than the other two. They all averaged around 5 3PAs per 36, but put up more than 5 more 2 pointers per 36.

      Per game last year Kristaps averaged about 12 2-point attempts. Here’s how that broke down:

      Inside 10 feet; about 5 shots, FG – 57%
      Catch and shoot: 3.5 shots, FG- 50.3%
      pull up: 3.5 shots, FG- 35.9%

      If you look at how he shot after dribbling, the more he dribbles the worse his FG % gets. So if the Knicks want to keep Kristaps they have to either get him better at making shots off the dribble or get him to stop taking those shots. Do that and he’s at least a good offensive player.

    20. I’ve pretty much resigned myself to the fact that KP is getting a max. It is what it is. I probably prefer that to losing him for nothing but it sure ain’t ideal.

      I will say that I think there is more pressure on players to become efficient these days than there was on Kobe/Melo/AI/T-Mac etc. I would be interested in seeing a renewed study on the pointzzzz/salary correlation because anecdotally it feels a little less strong than it was (with many glaring exceptions obviously). There’s also the reputation factor–inefficiency is criticized more frequently, though still not in a way that’s proportional to its importance.

      So I’m hoping these factors are strong enough to make KP optimize his shot distribution. I’m not holding my breath but I think it’s a reasonable hope. If he can get in the 58%+ TS range and continue to be an elite rim protector the contract won’t be what dooms us.

    21. Porzingis is not a superstar. He does not project to be a superstar. He has a concerning medical history for a 23-year old athlete.

      The Knicks should not give him a max contract based on those simple facts.

      Yes, there is a slim chance he might become the next Dirk Nowitzki. At at this point, though, odds are maxing him out will be a disaster.

    22. It’s amazing how pretty much everyone on this board knows that maxing KP is going to be a mistake. I wish some of Dolan’s cronies stumbled upon KB to take the red pill.

      I don’t know this at all, like at all. The question really is would you rather trade KP for uncertain return or would you rather max him out (presumably with some amount of injury protection).

      the Melo analogy is terrible on multiple levels – agree with swiftabundant in #15. Melo – old man at very end of or after his prime, and was very clearly a 1-way player. Also Melo was a 10y+ max and in 2013-14 actually was somehow >35% of the salary cap (his 2013-14 number was 22.4 million and the cap that year was 58.7 million = 38% of the cap). KP will be 23, is probably better on defense than offense at this point, and would be on the 25% max.

      I’m assuming KP would never sign a below-max deal in terms of AAV, although it would be nice if he did a Giannis or Gobert-like solid for the organization – if he were willing to start at $25MM (rather than $27MM) that would actually equal some real savings by the end of the contract.

      I guess we could entertain trades, but you better get some really premium assets for him which would include young established cost-controlled player(s), unprotected draft picks, and salary relief.

      The really painful max contracts are the 30-35% max ones on older players without injury protections. If we do a 25% max and put some common-sense injury protections I think we should do it.

    23. Sorry, I explained myself poorly. When I said it was the Melo Mega Max again I didn’t mean a KP max would cripple the franchise in the same way. I meant, instead, that KP’s value is overrated by media and thus our FO will give him a max no matter what, which will be a mistake.

      I too prefer keeping KP on the max than to let him walk away for nothing.

    24. That is the point that annoys me in the whole discussion. Giving a max to a non-max guy is literally handicapping yourself like Farfa said. It’s not inconsequential. Let’s say Porzingis does progress a lot, and becomes the 15th best player in the NBA. If the 14 players ahead of him are on let’s say, 8 different teams, outside of major roster construction issues the Knicks will already start behind those 8 teams in terms of overall production.

      If he ever gets to top 15 in the league then of course you max him, because you then hope to build around him using the remaining cap space to either make a great team around him that compensates for his lesser production compared to the best guys, or you find other superstars to come together. Neither of those options are easy to pull off if the best guy currently on your team is not a top 5 player.

      It’s the trap teams like Portland and the Clippers for example have fell on. They had top 15 superstars in Lillard and Paul, yet have never managed to build enough around them to become true contenders. In those cases it was even easier to choose to max those guys because they were actually superstar players on their primes. Porzingis could, maybe, reach their levels one day, so the decision is even tougher to make, and that’s not even considering the injury.

      So in the end it is similar to the Melo situation simply because there’s no way to assume Porzingis will live up to his deal. With Melo we could also pretty reliably assume he wasn’t going to (even though some here didn’t see it), and unless he develops A LOT, it seems fair to assume Porzingis also won’t.

      I do think the max is a done deal already and I hope he develops, but I’ll believe it when I see it. As of now, it’s a bad choice.

    25. I opened the Duke box score wondering if Zion actually had a bad game. Should have put my money on Barrett of course. Some horrific shooting from him and Jack White (0-10).

      i also don’t think maxing KP is likely to work out very well. I like KP and, barring injury, I think he will improve and live up to some of the hype. But the injury issue is a pretty big if and even if he does figure out how to score 23 per g at a 60% ts% his upside will still be limited somewhat by his inability to rebound and pass.

      Now would I have the balls as GM to let KP walk? I don’t envy the FO on this one, I will be honest. It’s not the most straightforward decision we have discussed on this board.

    26. If the Knicks don’t max KP, what are the other options? Let him sign the QO and be unrestricted in another year? Maybe let him sign as a restricted with another team this offseason and just match what will be less than if they just gave him a max extension?

      What about the rumors of Kanter to Chicago for Jabari Parker. Why would either team do that? I saw that and instantly became scared that the Knicks would kick in a 2nd round pick or something like that for the honor of having the 2nd year option on Parker. A Parker trade sounds like a non-starter to me.

    27. The rebounding is a real problem with KP, but he is so impactful on the defensive end in terms of decreasing opponents’ eFG that it more than makes up for it. THCJ will call this our usual apologism, but he’s been playing with really bad defenders and also defending the wrong position, so it’s difficult to fully assess his defensive impact. Even so — when KP played center last year, the Knicks were an above average defense (67th percentile) in spite of super miserable defensive rebounding (1st percentile) and foul rate (0th percentile). Why? Teams could not put the ball in the basket when KP was at center — eFG of 45.7% (98th percentile). Put a good defender at the point of attack (Frank) and suddenly you have an elite defense — DRtg of 100.6 (95th percentile), absolutely dominant D-eFG (44.4% -> 99th percentile) in spite of terrible rebounding and fouling (1st and 2nd percentile respectively).

      Put KP at center, let Frank play PG, and figure out how to stagger the bad defenders, and you’d have a really good defense.

      On offense stop making KP go 1-on-2 in the post. Have him shoot more 3’s than long 2’s. Get him moving whether on PNR/PNP or off screens to make up for his inability to create any shots outside a post-up. It really shouldn’t be that difficult.

    28. I too prefer keeping KP on the max than to let him walk away for nothing.

      why do you prefer this if you think it’s a mistake

      As of now, it’s a bad choice.

      so assume no trade loot available (bc kp didn’t like your dance partner and threatened them with the QO or taking 2/1 offer sheet and also bc of the market for lemons problem) . do you just let him sign a max offer 3/1 offer sheet and say cya

    29. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them! says:

      You’re right. We should discard his catastrophic knee injury, 37th percentile scoring and complete inability to pass or rebound the ball, because no one makes perfect projections and past on-court performance is not relevant to future performance.

      You should not ignore anything that’s relevant to helping you project the future, but the only thing that matters is the future. I’ve tried to highlight why some aspects of KP’s play are VERY likely to improve (scoring efficiency). That does not mean he will improve at all things. It means he’s more likely than other players to improve those areas.

      In the end, finding value comes from insights that give you an ability to project the future better than other people. It does not come from knowing exactly what everyone else already knows about the past.

    30. So in the end it is similar to the Melo situation simply because there’s no way to assume Porzingis will live up to his deal.

      What I think is hilarious is that people can have this take, and yet think getting draft picks back is a good solution. The draft is the ultimate crapshoot, especially since bad teams that might have top-of-draft picks aren’t trading unprotected picks anymore.

      Barring injury (which is why I would try really really hard to get some sort of injury protection), I think KP’s floor is an average NBA starter who provides some level of value on both ends. That’s a MUCH higher floor than, say, the #9 pick in a random draft.

    31. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them! says:

      @14 I loved it.

    32. You should not ignore anything that’s relevant to helping you project the future, but the only thing that matters is the future.

      Man, what an asset-management strategy.

      THCJ will call this our usual apologism, but

      It’s your usual apologism.

    33. It really shouldn’t be that difficult.

      Nothing in basketball should be that difficult, but people always find a way to mess it up, especially if they are employed by the Knicks :)

    34. Is there a possibility that KP takes less than the max to allow us to sign a max free agent?

      You know, like Melo did….oh wait….

    35. I doubt KP wants to play in the bayou.

      OMG …. damn you….. the image of KP in camo gear with a sniper rifle with the Duck Dynasty crew looking like some alien Simo Hayha or Hillbilly Hand Fishing has now superseded my parents having sex as the visual image I never want to see……

    36. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them! says:

      It’s never ideal to give a player a max deal BEFORE he has attained the level of play that justifies it.

      It’s never ideal to give a player a max deal if there are larger than average injury concerns.

      Both describe KP.

      However, for the 1000th time, this is the scenario teams are going to face on a regular basis when they are drafting 18-19 year old players and have to extend them long before they’ve reached their peak. Some of these deals are going to wind up being terrible. That’s one of several reason why I think draft picks are overvalued right now.

      However, if you do have a player like that, you can’t just automatically discard them for picks because he’s not a max player now. Picks put you right back in the same position of potentially failing to identify a good player, having to extend him in a few years before you can be certain if you do, and endlessly pushing your rebuild out further into the future.

      You have to look at the player, use data and insights to project a range of what he is likely to become, and do a risk/reward on whether he’s worth the max given all the negatives and setbacks to the rebuild of trading him.

    37. Took a 4 day break from phones/internet/news and just caught up on last night’s NBA action. I know they almost imploded but my Nets envy continues to grow. These guys are patient AF and building things brick by brick. They’re not perfect. You can quibble about some specific moves. But they have such a smart process in place and it’s slowly and steadily building towards something good. If we were in their shoes, I’d be the happiest I’ve been as a basketball fan since the 90s.

      I’m starting to think they might be the NY team that lands Kevin Durant. They’re going to be very attractive to a free agent.

    38. Count me as one of those people who thinks that it’s a good idea to max KP if he won’t take any less and (big assumption) there’s good reason to believe he’s 100% recovered from the ACL.

      RPM had him top 40 last year. PIPM had him top 25. Like Zanzibar, I think these stats are superior to the other publicly available one. If your 22 year old is posting those numbers and he’s not wasee by his injury I think it’s reasonable to max him.

    39. @30

      We would not pay 28 million for a rookie. You really can’t see the difference on gambling with 28 million and gambling with 8?

      I think the best option for now is to offer Porzingis a 5 year 90 million deal, similar to what Capela signed, with incentives for production. Capela is already a more productive player, but it’s a good compromise to keep Porzingis around.

      If he absolutely refuses it, then let him sign whatever offer sheet he gets and then match it. That’s what I would do.

    40. why do you prefer this if you think it’s a mistake

      In a vacuum, I think you can trade KP for almost fair value unless he totally sucks post-ACL, as long as you ride the media darling wave. I know it’s quite illogic that the same FO that might sign him to a max pronto will be ready to shrewdly trade him as soon as the chance comes along, but that’s why I think that retaining him is preferable to let him walk away for nothing.

      My preferred scenarios are as follows:

      1) Trade KP for good value now
      2) Resign KP for decidedly less than the max, say THJ salary
      3) Give KP the max
      4) Let KP walk away
      998) Give KP the max and extend Mudiay

    41. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them! says:

      Man, what an asset-management strategy.

      Pretty much the ONLY WAY to find value in the market is to project the future better than other people. Everyone else has access to the past and has no problem valuing it. The past is a starting point. You have to know where you are now to figure out where you are going. But all the real value is in being better at the “where you are going”.

    42. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them! says:

      @27

      I totally agree, but would add one thing about rebounding. Rebounding has a lot of value, but it’s WAY easier to find a good rebounder that’s cheap than a lot of other skills. If you put Vonleh next to KP, the rebounding problem goes away cheaply, the defense gets even better, and you aren’t sacrificing much on offense.

    43. How about trading Enes and Trey and/or Mudiay for Wesley Matthews and DSJ? Probably won’t help much but at least it frees us up from the increasingly petulant Enes.

    44. So I think a max is 5 yrs / $157M for KP. Assuming he comes back healthy, and proves it for a month. If your options were pay him or lose him, what would be your high mark on the $$?

      My random number would be 5 yrs, $25M per, $125M.

    45. The odds are probably better of KP developing into a superstar than trading him and getting (or drafting) a superstar in return. Shame it has to be that way, but he’s signing here for the max and Perry is gonna see it through. One thing to keep in mind is that unless he has another devastating injury, KP will always bring back a big return in a trade, even with a max deal (it’s not in the John Wall range.)

    46. If he absolutely refuses it, then let him sign whatever offer sheet he gets and then match it. That’s what I would do.

      do you still match if the offer is a 3/1 player option for $122m and a trade kicker

    47. Barring injury (which is why I would try really really hard to get some sort of injury protection), I think KP’s floor is an average NBA starter who provides some level of value on both ends.

      How would “injury protection” even work with the NBA’s salary cap rules? Is there even such a thing as “injury protection” in an NBA contract, like if this guy gets hurt he doesn’t count against our salary cap anymore? That like, doesn’t exist, right?

      I think the best option for now is to offer Porzingis a 5 year 90 million deal, similar to what Capela signed, with incentives for production.

      Same thing here, how do you build in “incentives” in a hard-capped league? This isn’t MLB, you can’t give a guy a $15M contract but then if he averages 20/8 or something he gets $20M. The salary structure in the NBA is just not built that way.

      Or am I missing something here?

    48. I know they almost imploded but my Nets envy continues to grow.

      I’ve got Kings envy! Buddy Hield’s ts% is over 60%, WCS is what we though he was, Bagley is above average. Fox is a player. Bjelica was a shrewd pickup.

      I wouldn’t want anyone to do an archive search for things I have said about the Kings. I would have to eat a ton of humble pie i think.

    49. I actually made the case last season that the Kings had a pretty good collection of young players, and some people said I was an idiot. They would really be in business if they had just drafted Doncic.

    50. doubt KP wants to play in the bayou.

      OMG …. damn you….. the image of KP in camo gear with a sniper rifle with the Duck Dynasty crew looking like some alien Simo Hayha or Hillbilly Hand Fishing has now superseded my parents having sex as the visual image I never want to see……

      Good thing I didn’t write the alliterative “I doubt KP wants to be ballin’ in the bayou”. I hate to think what image that might conjure up.

    51. @48 I don’t know the details but reports were that Embiid’s contract has a bunch on injury protections. And AD’s first extension had incentives in it based on making the all-star game and similar shit. It made the news when he just barely missed some arbitrary cutoff one year and lost out on a bunch of money. I assume the incentives would ppush a contract up to the max and protections would be unguaranteed money until the player hits a certain level of availability or similar.

    52. Re: Embiid’s contract:

      Here’s how a perfect storm of calamity would have to unfold for Embiid to earn any less than the full $146.5 million: Across each of the final four seasons of the extension, ending with the 2022-23 season, the 76ers could waive Embiid for a financial benefit if he’s lost because of a contractually agreed-upon injury that causes him to miss 25 or more regular-season games and if he plays fewer than 1,650 minutes, league sources said.

      Specific injuries are laid out in the contract and include only past problem areas with Embiid’s feet and back, sources said. Embiid has to miss 25 or more regular-season games because of injuries to those areas, and play fewer than 1,650 minutes, for Philadelphia to have the option of releasing him for cost savings.

    53. We would not pay 28 million for a rookie. You really can’t see the difference on gambling with 28 million and gambling with 8?

      Sure, except the ceiling is not the same with these two things. We already know certain things about Porzingis, namely he is 7’3″, an elite shotblocker/rim protector, is a legitimate 3 point shooter, and actually loves basketball and works really hard at it. especially with the new lottery odds, unless you’re trading for a pick after the lottery actually happens (ie. during the draft), you could think you’re getting a top 5 pick and easily end up with the #9 pick instead. How many 7’3″ guys who are already proven NBA rim protectors and shooters will be left at #9, much less #5? So sure, you’re gambling with $8MM, but your ceiling AND floor are almost certainly lower.

      Now– if someone wants to trade the #1 pick in the draft for KP, that’s another story. It’d make me a little sad emotionally just because i like KP, but I’d trade him for Zion in a second.

      I think the best option for now is to offer Porzingis a 5 year 90 million deal, similar to what Capela signed, with incentives for production. Capela is already a more productive player, but it’s a good compromise to keep Porzingis around.

      If he absolutely refuses it, then let him sign whatever offer sheet he gets and then match it. That’s what I would do.

      I still can’t figure out how Morey pulled that off. That said, it’s a very different story to offer someone that contract after you were just a Chris Paul tweaked hamstring away from an NBA title than our sad sack of a franchise.

    54. Embiid has to miss 25 or more regular-season games because of injuries to those areas, and play fewer than 1,650 minutes, for Philadelphia to have the option of releasing him for cost savings.

      Does “cost savings” mean he wouldn’t count against the cap, or just that Philly wouldn’t have to pay his salary? If he still counts against the cap then who cares really. I could care less about saving James Dolan a few dollars, but I care a lot about having albatross contracts that count against the salary cap.

    55. this is the best investment advice i’ve ever given. stay the fuck off the wall street metaphor train.

      If you’d spent twenty years with your head down and your nose to the ticker you’d know that’s it’s really simple: being old gives you Kreskin-like abilities to predict the future. Will it rain in the future? How will KP’s injury affect his ability to run in the mud? My sources say no but the reply is hazy, concentrate and ask again. Just like when picking a stock it is best to assume other companies won’t try to improve so you should stay away from index funds but it seems certain that the player will improve in ways that are not at all clear. That might not happen, probably because Phil Jackson is a genius at the track but we stupidly got rid of him. Professionals call him an “orange potato” because yams didn’t exist yet. An orange potato is the most effective kind of stock broker. If we want to win we should sign more players who were already good in the past because stats don’t tell us anything useful about the future and the future is all that matters in investing/gambling. The word “gamvesting” was coined in 1823 and it’s precepts apply flawlessly to everything else in the world, but especially to basketball. Phil Jackson understood this. In conclusion, Burma Shave.

    56. idk I’m convinced by this

      thread that all of the times I was like,

      “haha don’t sign that guy” and was right… that’s the past

      all that matter
      is

      the

      f u t u r e

    57. And AD’s first extension had incentives in it based on making the all-star game and similar shit.

      That’s the standard escalator clause that all mega-max extensions have built into them. If you hit certain thresholds, your percentage of the cap gets bumped up. It’s based on All-NBA, All-Star Team and all the various awards.

    58. Took a 4 day break from phones/internet/news and just caught up on last night’s NBA action. I know they almost imploded but my Nets envy continues to grow. These guys are patient AF and building things brick by brick. They’re not perfect. You can quibble about some specific moves. But they have such a smart process in place and it’s slowly and steadily building towards something good. If we were in their shoes, I’d be the happiest I’ve been as a basketball fan since the 90s.

      I think we had the discussion in a prior thread, but where are the Nets really? They’ve got some nice young players, a good coach and good GM, but they’re a 7 or 8 seed at best in the East with a 2019 draft pick in the teens. So barring the home run free agent signing, what does next year and the year after look like? The Nets, like the Hornets, Pistons and Heat are in that NBA hell of being good enough to sneak into the #8 seed but making the leap to contender will be a real challenge.

      At least with the Knicks we have the possibility of drafting a generational player in Zion, a player in KP who might develop into a true superstar and a current superstar (Durant) who has at least indicated he’s interested in coming here.

      All big ifs, but I’ll still take that over where the Nets are.

    59. Offer KP 5 at $100 million and see what he does. If Durant decides to come you can give him the full max at that point since you’d be capped out anyway.

    60. The Nets are sort of where the Clippers were before the CP3 trade – interesting young players (Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon, Deandre Jordan etc) but a second class citizen in LA just because. It’s 8+ years later and yet Lebron still would’ve chosen the Lakers 100 times out of a 100 even had the Clippers had the cap space to go after him (did they?).

      Now Kawhi may end up signing with the Clips this offseason, but I am pretty sure if LBJ weren’t on the Lakers and the Lakers had the cap space, he would choose the Lakers 100x out of 100 over the Clippers even if the team was worse.

      the Lakers are the Lakers and the Knicks are the Knicks. Even though the Knicks have sort of sucked for the last 18 years, it’s still the marquee franchise. It’d be earth-shattering if a prime free agent that both teams wanted chose the Nets instead of the Knicks.

    61. That said – the Nets are doing what the Knicks say they want to do — they’ve taken devalued assets that were highly drafted (Deangelo Russell), players that were discarded or undervalued because of injury (Levert, Dinwiddie) or perceived glut at the position (Jarrett Allen) and developed the bejesus out of them. They play smart and have had a fair amount of continuity.

    62. Offer KP 5 at $100 million and see what he does. If Durant decides to come you can give him the full max at that point since you’d be capped out anyway.

      The danger is that you piss him off and he does nothing but sign the qualifying offer. KP will have already made $20MM+ on the court even if he takes the QO – he’s from a small town in Latvia — he’d still live like a king there, even without taking into account whatever $ he’s made in endorsements already. And short of something like a torn achilles next year, he’ll still get a big offer in unrestricted FA even if it comes with fewer years or with less total guaranteed $. And then you’ve lost him for nothing.

      I don’t know anything about Capela, but given what we know about KP, my guess is if you come at him with a Capela offer, he’ll sign the QO and give you the finger on the way out. And we don’t have James Harden and CP3 to help recruit other FAs. The other big difference is that KP will have made near $20MM by the time he’s a free agent, and Capela had made “only” $6MM.

      What I would do is this:
      Bring up Giannis and Gobert as examples, and ask him if he would take 5 years ~$125MM with an player opt-out after year 4, and promising that we will use the money saved over to help build a contender around him. If he says no and wants the max, I would say ok on the contract $ amount, but we are going to insist on whatever injury guarantees we can write into the contract. If he says no, then say we encourage you to go out on to the market and find the best offer you can and we will happily match it.

      By doing it this way (and not coming straight out with a real lowball offer like Capela got), it’d be hard for KP to go out and say the Knicks didn’t respect him with their offers.

    63. The Nets have two more controllable years of Jarrett Allen, three years of Rodions Kurucs for essentially nothing, a 3/34 deal still remaining for Dinwiddie, another year of LeVert at $2.6, some bad contracts coming off the books and they don’t owe any more first round picks.

      They don’t have any of the chrome and leather of a good team, but they do have some nice nuts and bolts.

    64. Grocer – I like what you did there.

      The Nets are watchable and sort of fun with some good young talent and you can trust they won’t do anything really dumb to aggravate you. That’s an appealing package for a Knicks fan right now.

    65. Professionals call him an “orange potato” because yams didn’t exist yet. An orange potato is the most effective kind of stock broker.

      ++

      Yes, I think I’d match it. Still better than a straight up max.

      I don’t agree but it’s a thin, boxed argument about whether the value of the put option is x or 1.1x so let’s not have it. if you give this answer then i put you with or without consent outside of farfa’s bucket housing the 95pct who know it would be a mistake to max kp (I already threw Farfa outside his own bucket based on his answers above and that was no picnic)…because the two contracts are close enough that you can’t match one and call the other a mistake.

      it’s one thing to say they should try to trade him or see if he’ll work for free maybe, but really to say anything at all you need to say you’d let him walk for free over the max (or the 3/1 max). my guess is it would be more like 1/3 who would know or think it was a mistake to sign him under that definition.

    66. Here’s what I love about the Nets:

      LaVert at $2.6mm
      Jarrett Allen (one of my favorite players in the league right now) at $2.3mm
      Kurucs at $1.7mm

      2 first round picks this year (theirs and Denver’s)
      4 second round picks this year (including ours)

      $58 million in cap space this summer that can easily be increased to ~$75mm (they can sign any two player combination of Kevin, Kawhi, Kyrie, Kemba)

      A strong culture of player development (real player development, not “Fiz Magic”)

      No institutional baggage

      Strong ownership (Prokorov was a clown but it’s clear that Tsai, despite only owning 49%, is in charge)

      An evident thought process

      What’s not to love?

      I would not trade all that for a 14% chance at Zion and the upcoming Porzingis dilemma. If we do land Zion, though, that might be enough to flip the script even if they hit it big in free agency.

    67. @68 You conveniently left off Allen Crabbe’s $18.5MM player option for next year, which he will undoubtedly exercise.

      I have nothing but admiration for the job the Nets did cleaning up after the Boston trade fiasco, but until they strike gold with one of those free agents you referred to, they pretty much cap out as maybe a 45 win team.

    68. The Nets are sort of where the Clippers were before the CP3 trade – interesting young players (Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon, Deandre Jordan etc) but a second class citizen in LA just because. It’s 8+ years later and yet Lebron still would’ve chosen the Lakers 100 times out of a 100 even had the Clippers had the cap space to go after him (did they?).

      It’s a fair analogy but it’s one you can challenge. The Knicks haven’t had success in decades. Their base of loyal fans is probably a very small percentage of the NYC market. The Lakers have owned LA and consistently put out a great product despite occasional lean years.

      NYC was a Mets town when I grew up. If the Nets hit it in free agency and added Durant and Kemba or Kawhi and Kyrie, I think most of the city would get behind that team and we’d see a shift as big as when the Yankees took off in the mid 90s.

      That kind of dynamic just doesn’t exist in LA because the Lakers earned the loyalty of that city.

    69. @68 You conveniently left off Allen Crabbe’s $18.5MM player option for next year, which he will undoubtedly exercise.

      Can easily be stretched or traded with their array of sweeteners.

      I have nothing but admiration for the job the Nets did cleaning up after the Boston trade fiasco, but until they strike gold with one of those free agents you referred to, they pretty much cap out as maybe a 45 win team.

      You’re absolutely right. I would still love to trade our current situation for theirs.

    70. A strong culture of player development (real player development, not “Fiz Magic”)

      that’s sort of harsh. Atkinson is on year 3, and had a 20-62 record in year 1. I think I’d give Fizdale a little time before dismissing him as “Fiz Magic”.

    71. An orange potato is the most effective kind of stock broker.

      Grocer ascending to ptmilo territory….

    72. you can trust they won’t do anything really dumb to aggravate you.

      That’s a big deal. I was going to use Mudiay and Russell as a point of comparison. Being a Knicks fan means living with the fear of signing Mudiay to a 4 year $48mm contract this summer. Whereas if I’m a Nets fan, I’d be pretty confident we’d handle the Russell situation correctly.

    73. THCJ will call this our usual apologism, but

      It’s your usual apologism.

      I feel like THCJ and I are settling into a new phase of our relationship – sort of feels comfortable. He knows what i’ll say, and I know what he’ll say.

    74. that’s sort of harsh. Atkinson is on year 3, and had a 20-62 record in year 1. I think I’d give Fizdale a little time before dismissing him as “Fiz Magic”.

      To be clear: “Fiz Magic” refers specifically to the myth that Mudiay is good now and it’s because Fizdale is a player development guru. It has nothing to do with him as an actual coach.

    75. “Fiz Magic” refers specifically to the myth that Mudiay is good now and it’s because Fizdale is a player development guru.

      So you’re saying so far he’s all fizzle and no steak…


    76. Your shaving brush
      Has had its day
      So why not
      Shave the modern way

      nice read grocer – that was really good…

    77. does anyone really believe the knicks would trade KP…just doesn’t seem likely…i’m doubtful it even gets to the point where we allow other teams to make him an offer…seems our best hope is to make some shorter term offer that lowers our long term risk…

      ugh, having a tough time figuring out what other current contracts may be similar to what we can offer – that he may accept…

    78. i dont think you can get away with offering kp less than max… esp substantially less… if you are going that route the better course would be to trade him now….

      there are teams that are willing to give him the max now… so its best to offer him up to those teams to get what you can before you unleash a whole set of unnecessary drama and undermine whatever value you could get..

      it might seem we have a lot of leverage but the QO is a threat in which everyone loses… and a very public trade request is another that could really derail us…

      it would be better to just offer him close to the max if not the max.. at our stage in the development curve we have to hang onto as much future value as we can.. and you just dont get opportunities to land a 23 yo unique talent on the fa market.. the opportunity cost is what exactly? whos coming on the market or through trade that will net you more future wins?

      at some point you have to trust your organization to develop that.. there are risks but the alternative is using that cap money on much higher risks that dont even align with your win curve…

      if it were me id have explored trades awhile ago… but i think lowballing him is the worst option…

    79. so, max money means max years?

      meaning how much of an option will it be to pay him more annual money for less than 5 years…

    80. i have no idea… but maybe it might be worth it for him to take 4 years if it nets him more long term… but my guess is that he wants the 5…

    81. If the Nets want KP so bad (and it appears they do), I would gladly skip the QO song and dance and just work out a trade where we receive Jarrett Allen, their 1st in 2019, our 2nd that they have.

      That may not seem like a lot but if I had my own trade value column I would probably list Allen higher than Porzingis, so it would be quite a haul to me.

      EDIT: I’d probably try to lure Durant first with Porzingis in tow and only pivot to this option if he said no.

    82. The nets are too close proximity to knicks. It would creat a sizemic Shift in fanbase… Perry Mills would never trade him to Brooklyn.

      If there was a way to make a AD offer with kp though

    83. I say trade kp for an actual real back court player. We already have our yin/yang twin tower post dream team of Kornet and Robinson, which will dominate the league for 15-plus years. Add Durant and Zion/Ja to that core, and we’re good to go.

    84. I put myself in the trade KP camp.

      I think some posters here are too quick to assume that KP can/will change his shot selection. Once a midrange chucker, always a midrange chucker. Maybe I’m suffering from melophobia.

    85. Maybe I’m suffering from melophobia

      the sole affliction scientists have found may link JD’s two mentally deranged fan bases

    86. @ 89 – yeah, I think you’re suffering from that.

      When Melo came to The Knicks there was literally almost a decade’s worth of basketball to judge him on. Changing his shot selection at that point in his career was going to be a monumental task.

      Call me crazy but I think there’s a big difference between getting a chucker like Melo to change his game a decade into his pro career (and remember he had gone as far as the WCF just 2 years earlier) and getting KP, who is in his 4th year, to change his shot selection. Especially as its been pointed out that shot selection and efficiency are concepts that are much more widely discussed these days than even 5 years ago. Also, KP was the main guy on the team offensively last year and for a long stretch he didn’t even have Hardaway there to be the second option. Also, I take issue with the term “chucker” to describe someone who takes mid range shots. I know those are not the ideal shots to take but was KP really taking shots 1 against 5 last year? Was he shooting us out of games taking bad shot after bad shot? Was the issue the number of shots he was taking or was it simply the type of shots he was taking? To me there’s a big difference between getting someone to take a significant amount of less shots and getting someone to take the same number of shots but just better shots.

    87. Melo was also a very special kind of stubborn.

      I like Porzingis’ chances to improve. I just don’t like paying for the ideal version of him before he becomes it.

    88. Also, I get what people are saying about not maxing someone based on potential. But there’s potential and then there’s UNICORN POTENTIAL.

      Let me put it another way. Andrew Wiggins. What is the best possible version of Andrew Wiggins that people see possible?

      Now what is the best possible version of KP you see possible?

      It isn’t just that we think KP hasn’t reached his potential and can. Its that his potential is literally game changing. There is a reason this dude is nicknamed “The Unicorn.” KP does things on both ends of the floor that you don’t see a 7 foot 3 guy do.

      I’m just saying the risk/reward for maxing KP at age 23, even with his efficiency issues, his stamina/injury concerns…the potential reward with him is sky high. So maybe that’s worth the risk of giving him a max bc if it works out it could REALLY work out, ya know?

    89. But there’s potential and then there’s UNICORN POTENTIAL.

      homer level 9000: unlocked

      Call me crazy

      You’re emotional like 2012-era Jowles or November 2016 Jowles, so I’m not going to call you crazy. But, with that said–

    90. @91

      James Harden is playing with 4 literal G-League players on his team and has consistently maintained a .620 ts% for the entire season, while posting historical record usage rates and being the focal point of every single defense he faces every night.

      You’re gonna say it’s unfair to compare Harden, a veteran, to Porzingis, but the NBA is unfair. If you are paying the dude who can’t do it under those circumstances and another team is paying the dude who can do it the same amount, you’re already behind.

      That’s why people are comparing it to Melo, because it’s paying the max for a currently non-max player. Harden, to continue using the example, has come into the league knowing how to take quality shots, while Porzingis has not.

      So tell me, can you name one guy who was already considered a superstar who has learned shot selection after his rookie contract and has drastically improved his efficiency because of that? I will say that it’s far more unlikely than you think.

    91. And honestly, who cares about “unicorn” or anything? This is just a stupid term Bill Simmons used to describe players he thought were interesting. Give me non-unicorn superstars everytime over a UNICORN POTENTIAL with no production.

    92. So tell me, can you name one guy who was already considered a superstar who has learned shot selection after his rookie contract and has drastically improved his efficiency because of that?

      Chris Bosh

    93. Well, not after his rookie contract, but after a couple of seasons there was a clear improvement as he started cutting midrange shots

    94. Bruno, KD gave KP the unicorn nickname.

      Harden is incredible but he SUCKS on defense. Again, defense gets completely ignored on this site bc there aren’t good stats to measure it, so people just ignore the fact that KP is an elite rim protector and defender. KP can be the foundation for a very good defensive team and having a center who is not only an elite defender but also could be a good offensive player…that’s why he’s called The Unicorn.

      Again, all I’m saying is that the potential ceiling for KP is higher than say the ceiling for Wiggins or another player who might get a max from another team but isn’t clearly in the AD, Lebron, Harden stratosphere (yet).

    95. @91

      Call me crazy but I think there’s a big difference between getting a chucker like Melo to change his game a decade into his pro career (and remember he had gone as far as the WCF just 2 years earlier) and getting KP, who is in his 4th year, to change his shot selection.

      I don’t think you’re crazy. But giving someone a max contract means your team’s future is inextricably tied to that player. How confident are you that your assumption above is correct?

    96. @97

      When did Chris Bosh drastically improved his efficiency???? He had a .585 ts% in his 3rd year, his career high with Miami is .597. He had a .592 mark the season before he left for Miami.

      And I never said Simmons invented it, but be used it a lot to describe Porzingis, Giannis etc. but the point stands: who cares if he’s a unicorn or any other nickname if his production isn’t up to par?

      You’re bringing defense into the argument just because it favors your very poor case. If you want a rim protector you sign Bismack Biyombo for the minimum next season. Unless a guy is a transcendental defender who can guard every position and affect the game a lot over the course of many possessions, like prime Draymond Green or something like that, superstars affect the game by being incredibly productive on offense, because nobody else can do that. Other dudes can block shots and rebound, which Porzingis doesn’t do and yet he’s an elite defender in your view.

      You’re homering REALLY hard if you think Harden’s poor defense is equally important as Porzingis’ poor offense.

    97. How confident are you that your assumption above is correct?

      About as confident as he was about our last big, white, Europeans stretch 5 experiment…

    98. Jowles, seriously…fuck off with your Bargs shit. It was 6 years ago. You are such a fucking loser to constantly bring that up as your trump card over me. Seriously, get the fuck off your high horse. You are not as smart as you think you are. I’ve tried to be nice to you but you constantly feel the need to prove how superior you are to everyone on this site and its childish and petty.

    99. Chris Bosh

      Bosh is exactly what optimal Porzingis should be: the third best player on a championship team.

      The problem is if you max him you may never get the other two players. That’s why this year, when his cap hold is only $17mm, is so critical. If we can take advantage of his cap hold and bring in Durant and a 2nd star to support him, I really don’t care if Porzingis is overpaid as the 3rd banana.

    100. I’m just saying that you have a track record of doing the very thing you’re doing right now. That’s all.

    101. The name of the game is surplus value. How likely is Porzingis to give you *surplus value* on a max deal?

      Mega max contracts should be given out to the true elite superstars of the game, or you’re just putting a ceiling on what you can accomplish. Right now dude is miles away from delivering max contract production and it seems like kind of a bad risk to assume that he’s both going to stay healthy and also radically improve his offensive efficiency. He might do both of those things. He might not.

      If I was GM I’d try to cash him in, because I believe his perceived value is higher than his actual value.

    102. John Collins and Kevin Huerter are playing so well against the Thunder right now. I don’t remember who it was that said Huerter had sleeper potential here, but he’s looking pretty good.

    103. I think it’s really unlikely they trade KP – even a whisper of their willingness to do it would have hugely negative ramifications – so with that being the case, it’s either sign him for something or let him walk for nothing. I’d sign him, even if it meant the max. No, I don’t see lot of surplus value, but I really, really think people are underestimating his impact on D. It’s not just rim protection stats – it’s visible in how less likely the opponent is to attack in the paint. He was like anti gravity. He’s not a good rebounder, and probably never will be, but in other respects, he was an excellent defensive player.

      So yeah, I’d hope he’d be willing to change his shot selection. More 3-point shots at 40%. Fewer mid-range shots off the dribble. Doesn’t seem crazy to think he would listen to that. But I’d be counting on him as a fundamental building block of the defense, not a pillar of the offense, when holding my nose and offering him the deal.

      Obviously I’d want him to take less, but he clearly has an ego, so the communication around that would have to be about him being flexible so the team could be better around him. And if he didn’t bend, I’d cave and do the max.

    104. I’m just saying that you have a track record of doing the very thing you’re doing right now. That’s all.

      oh man, that is some kind of special skill right there…to poke on someone enough to flip them out and have them go off – and, then to respond in the calmest fashion possible…that’s some ninja chess mind game stuff right there…

      not to get too personal – but, reminds me of messing with my sister when we were kids…i’d taunt her til she started yelling and screaming – then, quietly fade into the background when my parents got pissed at all the noise…

    105. If we bring in Durant, draft Zion, dump some salary to sign a decent pg, then I have no problem maxing KP.

      If we sign Durant and another max player, then I have no problem maxing KP.

      Basically, you max KP if you’re going to be capped out for the foreseeable future. Otherwise, sign and trade.

    106. it’s almost shocking how incredibly similar Thompson and Curry’s career stats are per 36:

      Pts Trb Ast Stl Blk Fta 3p% 2p% FT%
      21.1 3.8 2.5 1.0 0.6 2.5 42% 49% 85%
      19.4 4.0 2.9 1.5 0.4 1.4 40% 48% 84%

    107. @113

      What? (Edit: nice one lol now I get it)

      @112

      Well, I would also not draft Huerter 1st overall, and I’d be going nuts over picking Barrett at 19th, so I guess there’s that. But jokes apart, the kid really is a natural shooter and he looks like he can contribute in other areas too.

    108. So what about these rumors that the Knicks and Mavs would swap Ntilikina + THJ for Smith Jr. + Matthews?

      I really don’t get why the Mavs would ever want Hardaway, and I really dislike DSJ as a player, but to get out of the Hardaway contract it’s gotta be a consideration right? I kinda hate it in a way, but somehow it also kinda makes sense.

    109. You know, LaMarcus Aldridge makes approximately $25M a year and Al Horford makes $29M a year. The max contract for Porzingis apparently $158M for five years, which means he would start out around $27M a year and go up to around $34 million a year in five years (but presumable the cap will be higher then, so that won’t be the same as $34 million is now). So at the max, we’d be paying KP only slightly more than Aldridge and less than Horford. Boston and San Antonio seem happy they have those players on those contracts. I’d rather have Porzingis than either of them. So even though I don’t want to pay him the max, the market rate for him is probably close to that, and I’d rather keep him than lose him even if we have to pay that.

    110. So the Nuggets and Dubs have combined for 89 points in the first quarter. Might want to tune in for that one if you like scoring.

    111. A verified twitter account posted it, but I have no idea if they’ve ever actually broken anything.

      Sure, I’d do it. Frank and DSJ are both essentially non-prospects, though I value DSJ higher for what should be obvious reasons, and we get off of THJ’s deal.

      You know, LaMarcus Aldridge makes approximately $25M a year and Al Horford makes $29M a year. The max contract for Porzingis apparently $158M for five years, which means he would start out around $27M a year and go up to around $34 million a year in five years (but presumable the cap will be higher then, so that won’t be the same as $34 million is now).

      This is a very bizarre point considering those guys are:
      1) likely overpaid relative to their production (though Horford still ranks solidly by most metrics)
      2) as of now, much better than Porzingis via every single metric on Earth

      It kind of demonstrates the opposite of what you are trying to argue.

      I mean sure, those contracts didn’t kill those teams and Porzingis’ won’t kill us if we can get a Kawhi/Kyrie level player. Win curve, win curve, win curve. Boston signed Horford after a 48 win season. The Spurs signed LMA after a 55 win season. This conversation would very obviously look a lot different if we were taking about adding Porzingis to an existing good team.

    112. KP would be a nice fit in Atlanta… maybe they’d trade their 2 picks for him and we could go really young?

    113. If the Mavs are still enamored with Frank then he makes more sense with Doncic long term then DSJr does. Nobody should want THjr’s player option and 15% trade kicker.

    114. I wouldn’t do it. I know Frank has been abysmal this year, but I like the potential of the player he could be more than I like the potential of the player Smith could be. Even if Smith is more likely to reach his potential, I don’t think it’s a good move.

      Though it would be amusing to watch Frank succeed as part of a dynasty in Texas and watch all the haters do gymnastics trying to deny they said he had no chance to be a good player.

    115. KP would be a nice fit in Atlanta… maybe they’d trade their 2 picks for him and we could go really young?

      Though I think KP has the potential to be top-15 player, that trade I’d do.

    116. Yeah dumping his contract without having to sweeten the deal with a pick would be huge. That’s why it’ll probably never happen

    117. Yeah, considering Ntilikina and DSJ are at a similar level in terms of prospect, in the sense that both have not shown they can be positive NBA players so far and have major issues in their games, simply getting rid of THJ for an expiring without having to attach anything else would be huge. The team would be even more unwatchable than it already is because we might go through entire quarters without seeing a single pass in a possession with Matthews and DSJ, but it would be a get out of jail free card out from THJ’s contract.

    118. frank for dennis smith would be so ironic…

      and fantastic for us…. smith has a decent chance to be something at least…

    119. Even ignoring the Denver-Golden State game, the four completed games tonight had winners averaging over 132 points. Also, the differential per game was 32.5 points.
      Philly scored 83 points in the first half.

      This ain’t Ewing’s NBA…

    120. That Frank/THJ for DSJ/Matthews rumor seems too good to be true. Nothing good like that ever happens to us.

    121. I suspect Smith Jr of being a hopeless chucker and apparently they want to dump him because he’s incapable of playing well with others, so the trade is basically dumping THj’s salary with Frank as a sweetener. I don’t see much value add there. Woo-hoo, cap space we don’t need. But I’m definitely on team trade KP while the league hasn’t realized he’s just an average Joe, so I’m pretty well set on maxing a free agent being the stupidest possible move the Knicks could make right now.

    122. The average average NBA players can’t become really good with a couple simple shot selection tweaks. Trading Kristaps means we can’t get a young player to learn how to play better. And maybe we can’t. But if our FO/coaching staff is too dumb to figure that out they’re also too dumb to trade Kristaps so we’re fucked

    123. People who think the Knicks offense is bad to watch under Fiz need to watch this awful Bulls offense. Holy shit what an eye sore.

    124. I hate the idea of trading Frank and getting Dennis Smith. I think Ntilikina is still improving and, will most likely at least become a good quality role player. Smith, on the other hand, it’s hard to see him being anything except a chucker, even if he gets better at chucking. And my impression is that all of Dallas’ talk about “fit” conceals the fact that they just want to get rid of him and don’t think he will be a good player long term. If our management does that it will confirm my worries about their taste in player types.

    125. To be clear, much of the reason I’d rather trade KP is the danger that he’ll be good enough to land us in purgatory but not good enough to get us past that. KP doesn’t fit our timeline, we’re too far out. Consequence of not having picks/not aquiring young players. But hey, Rose and Noah were master strokes. Everybody was smelling burnt toast.

    126. after the cavs beat the lakers I was hopeful that maybe the bulls could do the same…no such luck…lakers were due to play a little better…and, the bulls are the bulls…

      that’s something lebron has the lakers over .500, they’re a pretty young/bad team…

      basketball is a really unique team sport in that with so few players participating – an individual player can have a huge impact on their team…

      that was eye opening to see golden state struggle so much with steph out and KD trying to carry the team…

      I was happy the yanks passed on harper and machado (andujar is amazing at the plate, and, will learn to defend)…it took me a while to warm to stanton…just seems like such a waste to commit such a large portion of a team’s payroll to just one or two players…

      no matter how well they might individually perform, that narrow salary commitment may not reflect in wins…

      not talking championships, just sustained competitiveness…

      I mean I’m not holding my breath for that orange and blue ticket tape parade, it sure would be nice though to at least string a few winning seasons together…

      here’s to hoping kp will be one of those few athletes that can help carry a whole team, cuz unless we get crazy lucky in free agency – he’ll have to…

    127. I hate the idea of trading Frank and getting Dennis Smith. I think Ntilikina is still improving and, will most likely at least become a good quality role player.

      I dunno, I don’t see Ntilikina improving at all. In fact, his lack of improvement from his rookie year is probably the most concerning thing about him. His TS%, eFG%, WS48, 2PT%, 3PT%, AST% are all either the same or worse this year than they were in his rookie year. It’s pretty wishful thinking to believe he’ll “at least” be a good role player. Right now his most likely outcome is “bust.”

      Smith has not been a good NBA player and he doesn’t have Frank’s defensive chops but he has added 60 points to his eFG% and TS% this year, so if anything he’s the guy that’s improving. Neither player is a great prospect but honestly I’d rather have DSJ.

    128. JK47, you could be right. I know that Frank’s statistics haven’t improved, but I think part of that is often playing the two or even the three instead of the one, which is a new position for him. When I watch him play, I see him doing things this year that he didn’t do last year. The game against Philadelphia was an example. He did some drives he would never have done his first year and didn’t look bad doing them. But my preference may also just be that I want two way players, and if I can’t get a two way player, defense is a priority. Frank has that. DSJ probably doesn’t. But point guards take a long time to develop and the jury is still out on both of them.

    129. I still don’t think we can get value for KP at this point. Who is going to give up real value for a shot at the same dilemma we have over what contract to give KP? If the nets call and we show interest, it likely just emboldens them to believe a strong RFA offer gets him in the summer, so they offer low. Plus KP has the (not completely unbelievable) threat of taking the QO if traded to a team he doesn’t want.

      I don’t want to max KP but I also think losing him for nothing is terrible, and I’m not sure there is much in between. I probably would take calls on him quietly now, but if the offers aren’t good – and I don’t think they will be – I think I swallow hard, let him get an RFA offer, match it and then look to trade if/when he has his next hot streak of games. If he really comes back strong and plays at an all-star level through to next year’s deadline, suddenly the choices are trade for a proper haul or keep and build round him – much better all round.

      Since we’re so bad and probably not a FA destination anyway, if he is bad/injured when he’s back and we’re still bad as a consequence, the space he’s occupying really only costs us the chance to overpay mediocre players while we continue to build through the draft.

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