Knicks Morning News (2016.07.07)

  • [New York Times] So-So Players’ Salaries Soar in N.B.A. Flush With New TV Money (Thu, 07 Jul 2016 04:52:27 GMT)

    There has never been a better time to be an N.B.A. free agent, thanks to a new TV contract that has infused billions of dollars into the league.

  • [New York Times] Knicks Drawing on Top Spanish League to Stock Bench (Thu, 07 Jul 2016 06:20:05 GMT)

    Center Guillermo Hernangomez and forward Mindaugas Kuzminskas, veterans of the league where Kristaps Porzingis played, are said to have reached deals to join him in New York.

  • [New York Times] Coming Home: Dwyane Wade Leaving Heat for Bulls (Thu, 07 Jul 2016 04:09:46 GMT)

    Dwyane Wade is going home, making what he called “an extremely emotional and tough decision” on Wednesday night to leave the Miami Heat after 13 seasons and sign with the Chicago Bulls.

  • [New York Times] Wade Leaving Miami Heat for Chicago Bulls: Reports (Thu, 07 Jul 2016 03:42:31 GMT)

    Dwyane Wade is leaving the Miami Heat for the Chicago Bulls, returning to the city of his birth, multiple media outlets reported on Wednesday.

  • Liked it? Take a second to support Mike Kurylo on Patreon!

    Mike Kurylo

    Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

    302 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2016.07.07)”

    1. Loyalty and fair play

      Competition is what makes this league special.

      1992’s USA Dream Team was a special event, a nice ‘circus’ show and a great advertisement for this league.
      It was Not Good tho for exciting matchups.

      KD’s decision makes the GSW a mini dream team.
      I’m the first one who wishes/hopes and prays this team to ‘suffer’ BIG TIME.

      Chances of DRose playing great this year ?
      Slight…but even the bulls fans would want that to happen.

      Chances of KD/GSW losing the title this year ?
      Slight also…but even his “bro” RWestbrook and his longtime OKC fans would love to see that happening.

    2. Weird night in the NBA.

      In the short term it seems like Miami will probably benefit.
      I’m guessing they will match Tyler Johnson.
      They’ll still have Dragic, Johnson, Richardson, Winslow, and Whiteside.

      If I understand how the Arenas contract works, Johnson will only count ~$6MM to their cap this year, so they’ll have about $78MM committed — $16MM room left.

      Given what I’ve read about Bosh, I think it’s extremely unlikely that he plays basketball again, unfortunately for him. But I don’t think they will get salary relief until next year?

      So depending on what they do with the $16MM in room this summer, they could have gobs of cap space again next summer for Riley to do his magic.

      Question is — do the Heat or Riley have the same cachet (outside of the city of Miami itself, no state tax etc.) after both LBJ and Wade left under bad circumstances or at least hurt feelings? One could easily interpret the Riley-Wade dynamic as: “Trust me, take a little less now and we will take care of you later” over and over again like Lucy pulling the ball away from Charlie Brown.

      Outside of that dynamic though — it seems like this is a (necessary) win for the Heat IMHO.

      For the Bulls– wtf are they doing. I just don’t get it. That 2017 2nd round pick we got in the Rose trade may end up being very valuable. That team has a strong possibility of just completely imploding. Rondo is a locker room killer, who knows what Wade will be like on what will be a losing team, doesn’t seem like Butler and the FO get along, Mirotic has really struggled, etc.

      Sure feel like Isola may have been right about all the goings on in Chicago. Thibs (outside of running his players into the ground) comes out of this looking like he was the guy holding the place together.

      Feel bad for RoLo getting stuck there.

    3. I do feel bad about losing Galloway.
      A 2 year ~$12MM deal with a player option in year 2 is a really strong deal for him.

      LG has always wanted to bet on himself. He probably knew that if he signed a deal with the Knicks he might not get a lot of playing time and would be candidate #1 or #2 to be traded pre-2017 summer to a place NOT under his control. I’m not even 100% sure if the Knicks offered him the same deal whether he would have stayed just because of the trade risk and likelihood he wouldn’t get that many minutes.

      I’m guessing the Pelicans will let go of Tim Frazier now, so LG will be in a 4 guard rotation with Hield, Holiday, and Tyreke Evans. Here he probably would have been the 5th guard behind Rose, Jennings, Lee, and Holiday.

    4. Jared Dubin has been doing Locked On Knicks podcasts about all the moves in the last week.

      Interesting stuff yesterday from a European basketball journalist about Kuzminskas and Willy H.
      Basically sounded like he was really high on Kuzminskas — plays well without the ball, can go on scoring flurries, basically only shoots 3s or tries to dunk the ball. There have been differing opinions on his defensive ability, but he seemed to think he could guard multiple positions, and that he’s not bad on the glass.

      He didn’t seem so high on Hernangomez – basically said he was buried on the Real Madrid bench, never played any meaningful minutes, and completely lost his confidence. He said when Willy got some minutes against Ekpe Udoh, he didn’t even look like he belonged on the same court — and Udoh was basically a draft bust here. Really struggled guarding the PNR. Not much range outside of 8 or 9 feet on offense.

      Feel like Willy is going to be a D-league guy for most of this year, if for no other reason to get some actual minutes.

    5. @Frank

      The Knicks couldn’t offer a 1+1 to Galloway per Bobby Marks. Any deal they offers had to be at least 2 years. I wish they’d have kept him but I don’t think it’ll be a big loss if Baker is as good as they think he is.

      Hernangomez didn’t play at Madrid because he’s young and was running out his contract to go to an NBA team. European teams have a very clear hierarchy in terms of playing time and his minutes reflect little more than that. Even then his percentages and rate stats the last 2 years are impressive. He is a bad PNR defender right now but he is pretty quick on his feet so it seems like it could improve. He has a legitimate post game is a strong offensive rebounder and though not an elite athlete by any stretch of imagination is quick up and down the floor. Ceiling is probably something like Luis Scola.

      I know nothing about the Kuz but everything I’ve heard make him sound like a Euro DWill replacement. Tweener forward, athletic that has a hit or miss 3 ball, attacks the rim constantly and is good in transition. Let’s see if that translates but Fraschilla was high on him on Twitter after we signed him.

    6. Real madrid is one of the best teams outside the US, a powerhouse in the 2nd strongest league in the world. Being benched there isn’t a terrible thing.

    7. @5 and @6

      Understood- I was just summarizing what the guy on the podcast said…

      Still- might not be a bad idea to give Willy some run up at westchester at least when the parent club is at home…

    8. With the guards the Knicks signed, it was pretty clear Gallo’s minutes would take a hit. With guards like Calderon and Grant and Afflalo, he could get a lot of minutes.
      If I were him I’d go elsewhere as well, let alone my home town.
      Good for him.
      Don’t really understand the Wade move. He too has injury issues and is a shadow of his former self.
      Both guys from Europe likely won’t be contributors of any significance this year. As good as Europe has gotten it is a huge leap from there to the NBA.
      Knicks are
      Going to lean heavily on Lance and O’Quinn off the bench.

    9. I’d keep Willy with the big Knicks for the time being. If after the first month of the season or so he’s not getting run or is struggling to adjust then I’d move him to Westchester.

      I kind of think Kuz is going to be fine in terms of adjusting to the speed of the game. That’s based on nothing, but what I’ve heard from others about him and some YouTube highlight scouting, but I trust our Euro scouts a lot from what they’ve unearthed over the past few years.

    10. I’m off topic and late, but I want to put this out there as comment of the year

      Well at least its a team full of Swizz Beats, Eve, DMX, Drag-on, and Lox.

      Had me snorting my coffee this morning

    11. @10
      I”m surprised to see the comment about Grant. I wonder what they saw in him that made them so down on him last summer league?

      I also wonder about Hornacek pairing Rose and Jennings at times? Pairing 2 PG may have worked some in Phoenix, but isn’t Dragic a good shooter? Neither of them can shoot! Maybe KP is going to spot up a lot?

    12. Kuzminskas is a great scorer. He’s mainly a shooter, but he can use a fake to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim where he’s a great finisher. I think he can do a good job as a scoring threat coming off the bench.
      Willy Hernangomez has the tools to be a good player but he’s too raw right now. He’s a good 1 on 1 defender against big and strong centers but suffers against fast ones. He’s a good p’n’r player and a good finisher with both hands around the rim but doesn´t have any range at all. He reminds me rookie Mozgov.

    13. Yeah, the Grant comment was surprising. Seems like there were two camps on him. Kind of explains the uneven minutes.

      Also, this comment is a relief:

      Courtney Lee was the SG they wanted all along. They said the Eric Gordon rumors were “bullsh*t. We already took a shot on one injured guy and Melo isn’t always healthy either. Why would we add a walking injury to the mix?”

      Also this:

      And finally, don’t be surprised to see Ron Baker get a camp invite and to make the team as an undrafted rookie. He’s been pretty good in Orlando and repeatedly I was told “he just plays the right way all the time. All the time. It doesn’t translate here (Summer League) because this is bullsh*t basketball. But this guy can play. He’ll be in the league.”

      Sounds like they’re relatively high on Baker. May end up taking a flier on him

    14. My University of Phoenix Online degree in internet basketball scouting tells me that Herrnangomez is gonna have a shitload of trouble defending in the NBA. He has roughly zero of the physical traits you want to see from a defending big — mediocre wingspan (~85 inches), no explosive leap, no quick second leap, no lateral quickness. I’m not allowed to opine on whether he can make up for all this with AlphaGo level tactical mastery until I’ve seen him play six minutes next to Chasson “Mike Conley” Randle in summer league. His best-case comp looks a hell of a lot more like Enes Kanter than, say, Marc Gasol.

      The Mindy project guy we signed has really funny youtube clips. It’s hard to find him doing much besides two handed dunks. In kinda reminders me of that career videolog of Kenny Walker I once made myself for my birthday. I have trouble seeing how a 27 year old forward and career 33% 3pt shooter who looks like he would get boxed out by Ray Felton will be well rounded enough to be an NBA defender/rebounder/passer, but if Clarence was involved I defer.

      I think we will be better next year if Noah and Melo stay reasonably healthy because I doubt Noah is done yet and I expect KP to improve significantly. But I think this offseason was bad for us in the long run. I don’t see how Phil’s whole lip-service about building continuity, culture and system is served by saying goodbye to guys like Rolo and Langston and saying hello to Drose and Jennings and signing 30+ guys to four year deals.

      Speaking of Langston, today I honor his departure by noting that according to SportVu the NBA player (with material minutes) who had the fastest average speed on defense in 2015-16 was none other than 38 year old Pablo Prigioni. Long live Knick warrior guards. I see you Trent!

    15. @14
      There were reports that the Knicks called Lee right at 12:01.

      For better or worse (:-)), this offseason it seems that Phil got all the guys he really wanted. Last year it seemed like he didn’t and had to go to Plan B or C or whatever. Lopez ended up a good signing and the 2 hold the fort guys were a mixed bag, but both opted out, so that’s okay. I’m kind of surprised that OQ is still here, but maybe they want to see him for another year.

      By far the most important deal this offseason was Hornacek. If’ he’s a good coach, the team should be okay unless a couple of guys miss huge amounts of time (say 2 of Rose, Noah, Melo). If he’s a bad coach, the team could stink even if relatively healthy.

    16. It was very hard for them to give up Robin Lopez. They loved everything he did for them and his fit with Porzingis. But, as the quote was, “you have to give something to get something and we feel like Rose was someone we had to get.”

      hoo boy

    17. I left out my worthless summer league observation.

      Ron Baker does look interesting. He doesn’t have fast-twitch-ness but his length and blatantly high court smarts (stands out on both ends in not doing dumb summer league things) might be X-factors, especially on defense. He’s got enough ambidextrous handle and composure to be useful with the ball but will probably never be a real drive and finish weapon bc of very limited explosiveness. He is a sneaky enough finisher with his length to have some value on the break and with backdoor cuts, but only some. I think whether he sticks mainly depends on whether he turns out to be a really good shooter or just an okay shooter.

      Edit: I can see a little Bobby Phills in Baker if I had to pick someone.

    18. “you have to give something (good) to get something (bad) and we feel like Rose was someone we had to get.”

      It’s the Knicks way.

    19. Better hope those 2 PG sets include Lance, Melo, and Porzingis and that each is having a career shooting and defensive year because a D-Rose BJ backcourt can’t shoot the ball into the ocean and couldn’t defend a football dummy.

      Yeah and that Rose comment is pretty, pretty, pretty dumb.

    20. Totally agree on Baker–if you can shoot, there’s is a place for you on an NBA roster. A great shooter with high bball IQ is about all you can ask for in an undrafted guy.

      As for Willy H, I don’t think we can expect anything from him next year, but if he turns into Enes Kanter-lite in a few years, that’s pretty good return on a second round pick. It’s easy to see him as a useful player at backup 5 eventually, especially if he develops some range on his jump shot. He may never be a plus defender, but I’m not sure you really need that out of your backup 5 if he can do other things like rebound, pass, and be an efficient scoring options.

    21. Wouldn’t mind seeing Baker + Randle get camp invites + get on the team, though. They look nice, particularly Baker–he plays so within himself.

    22. May I ask why people consider Goran Dragic a shooter but Brandon Jennings is a guy that can’t shoot?

      Their career 3FG% is within a hair of each other (Jennings is half a percent lower), but Jennings takes more than twice as many attempts per 36, which in my mind makes his ability to hit above .350 all the more impressive. Yet Dragic can shoot and Jennings can’t? What gives? I know Jennings has issues finishing around the rim and drawing FTs and his TS% suffers accordingly, but that really has nothing to do with his ability to space the floor with his 3pt shot.

    23. If those quotes are real, they basically confirm the inability of the front office to assess a player’s value. The Rose/Lopez quote was sooo bad.

    24. Well at least its a team full of Swizz Beats, Eve, DMX, Drag-on, and Lox.

      Wish I understood the joke….

    25. @23
      Dragic is from former Jugoslavia, where babies learn first how to shoot before they can walk, so maybe this fact has to do with his better “shooting fame & reputation” !!!

    26. Jennings is weird, man. The guy has been playing for 7 seasons, and it’s still hard to say if he is a good 3pt shooter. In the seasons he’s had over 1000 minutes he has shot under 34% 3 times, and over 36% 3 times. If he is a 36-37% 3pt shooter in NY, great! Play him next to Rose. If he is a 32-33% shooter? That’s an awful shooting backcourt.

    27. May I ask why people consider Goran Dragic a shooter but Brandon Jennings is a guy that can’t shoot?

      They’re not even in the same stratosphere.

      Career Stats
      Jennings: TS% .497; eFG% .453
      Dragic: TS% .561 eFG% .522

      To put it in context, the difference between Dragic and Jennings is significantly larger than the difference between Curry and Dragic. Think about the number of wasted possessions that this difference in shooting represents over the course of a season.

    28. the thing with grant is the way he dribbles… it’s way too high and he had all sorts of trouble getting to the basket because of that…

    29. Jennings is streaky imo.
      A Jr-esque type of shooter
      Dragic is more stable/Calderonesque with lots of drives & more speed

    30. Dragic is a good player who had one great year, and people (I think) remember him that way.

    31. Pistons signed Boban to a 3-year, $21 mil offer sheet. Will Spurs match? And would Stan Van be crazy enough to ever try a lineup with Boban and Drummond in at the same time?

    32. It looks like Chi had to give LA one and maybe 2 future 2nd round picks to take Calderon off their hands. And that was with more than one team after him. I guess the market for us to trade him would have been pretty low.

    33. And that also might explain why we had to give up Grant in the deal. Think of it as Lopez for Rose, and Grant as the cost of them taking Jose. (Sort of like giving up Shump to be rid of JR.)

      Meanwhile:

      The NBA’s projection for the 2017-18 season has fallen from $107 million to $102 million

      That’s a big deal, and it moves us from being able to offer a max deal to Westbrook, Paul, or Lowry without having to do anything painful, cap-wise, to maybe having to do some significant juggling to account for that missing $5 million.

    34. They’re not even in the same stratosphere.

      Career Stats
      Jennings: TS% .497; eFG% .453
      Dragic: TS% .561 eFG% .522

      They’re not in the same stratosphere in terms of overall scoring efficiency, but we’re talking about them in terms of being able to space the floor playing off another guard who doesn’t shoot threes. In his first season under Hornacek, Dragic shot .408 from 3, while in his second he shot .347. Jennings has never come close to that .408 number, but his career average at .350 is right around that second season for Dragic.

      Interestingly, in the part of Dragic’s second year he played in Phoenix he shot .355 but that number fell to .329 after he was traded to Miami. This year in Miami, he shot even worse at .312. The dip in his shooting numbers may have to do with Miami’s spacing issues, but they also suggest he was able to get better looks playing off the ball in Hornacek’s system. The .408 number on 299 shots is particularly good evidence of this. Dragic’s only had one other season where he came within 3 percentage points of this, and that was on half as many shots.

      Thus, it’s reasonable to wonder if Jennings might be able to put up one of his better 3PT% playing off the ball in a similar role.

    35. alsep73 wouldn’t the max go down some too? Can we do a state of the Knicks cap again after all these signings, are we over the cap now? We have Rose and Jennings coming of the cap next year as well as the cap increase.

    36. Maybe the right comment had to be:
      “you have to give something to get rid of something”

      You give Chandler to get rid of Felton
      You give Shumpert to get rid of JR
      You give Rolo to get rid of Jose

    37. re: Jennings and Dragic as off ball guards. I just read in a WSJ article that Jennings shot 41.4% on catch and shoot 3s last year. He would presumably get more of these looks playing off the ball, which further suggests his capability to post a good 3PT% this year.

    38. Stop with this we gave away Rolo to get rid of Jose bullshit. Jose was making relatively little money and was coming off the books after another season in which we will not be contending for the NBA championship. We had 32 million in cap space. There was no pressing need to dump Jose’s contract.

    39. @39
      There was no pressing need to dump anyone’s contract since we sucked hard on the last 3 yrs but we dumped many of them while waiving also others.
      It’s called: Cleaning

    40. They’re not even in the same stratosphere.

      Career Stats
      Jennings: TS% .497; eFG% .453
      Dragic: TS% .561 eFG% .522

      Yeah, if you read my whole comment, I am well aware of why Jennings doesn’t have a comparable TS or eFG, but I am not talking about scoring efficiency, I’m talking specifically about outside shooting. Where Jennings has virtually the same FG% as Dragic on twice the volume. From a “can he space the floor” standpoint, fg% at the rim or ft rate is not relevant. Dragic is considered a good outside *shooter* by most but Jennings is not.

    41. Spurs signed Dewayne Dedmon-I wonder if that means they’re not matching on Boban.

    42. It doesn’t really matter who considers Dragic a great shooter because those people are wrong. Dragic and Jennings are in fact very similar shooters and are also very close to average, with normal volatility for average 3pt shooters, for NBA guards. In fact, Dragic and Jennings are nearly identical players with only one major difference. Dragic is elite — and by elite I mean one the best sub 200 pound guards in NBA history — at getting to the rim and finishing while Jennings is way below average.

      For his career Dragic gets 33pct of his shots at the rim and Shoots a ridiculous 68pct. That’s way better than drose’s mvp year. Jennings is 23 pct and 51 pct, which is worse than Dion Waiters. It’s fine that some people wrongly think Dragic is a great floor spacer but their wrongheadedness is not the relevant comparison here.

      Boban.

    43. Yeah, if you read my whole comment, I am well aware of why Jennings doesn’t have a comparable TS or eFG, but I am not talking about scoring efficiency, I’m talking specifically about outside shooting. Where Jennings has virtually the same FG% as Dragic on twice the volume. From a “can he space the floor” standpoint, fg% at the rim or ft rate is not relevant. Dragic is considered a good outside *shooter* by most but Jennings is not.

      Huh?

      http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jennibr01.html
      http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dragigo01.html

      There’s no subset of shooting data that suggests that Jennings shoots better from outside than Dragic, except for this past year from 3PT. One year! And ptmilo is correct that neither player is an elite outside shooter.

      Forget the “spaces the floor” narrative. It’s all ruruland-style fiction with some murky truth behind it, a truth you’ll never see clearly through all the noise.

    44. Well at least its a team full of Swizz Beats, Eve, DMX, Drag-on, and Lox.

      Wish I understood the joke….

      Rough Ryders

    45. @42
      According to Stein, the Spurs are unable to match Detriot’s offer to Boban.

    46. For his career Dragic gets 33pct of his shots at the rim and Shoots a ridiculous 68pct. That’s way better than drose’s mvp year. Jennings is 23 pct and 51 pct, which is worse than Dion Waiters. It’s fine that some people wrongly think Dragic is a great floor spacer but their wrongheadedness is not the relevant comparison here.

      edit: wrong page hehe

    47. Can I get a feel for how much interest there would be if I made a Kickstarter page to personally match Boban’s offer sheet and committed to Periscoping him and I watching league pass games all year?

    48. @ptmilo, the thing is Dragic was a great floor spacer during his one season with Hornacek. He shot roughly 40% on 300 attempts. For context, that made him a top-50 player both in terms of 3PA and 3p%.

    49. Why are the Pistons paying a max deal to Drummond and signing Boban, too? I can’t see how the two of them would ever be able to be on the court at the same time. They’re board-crashing guys who should never shoot the ball unless their hand is within reach of the rim.

    50. That is just normal volatility — luck. Three point shooting is noisier than people think for most shooters. Paul Pierce once shot 30pct in two seasons and over 750 attempts sandwiched in between two great shooting years.

    51. I’m on my phone so doing this from memory, but as I’ve already made clear Dragic and Jennings shoot an almost identical percentage from 3 for their career, and Jennings doubles Dragic’s volume per 36. There is just no basis to say that Jennings is a non shooter or not a threat from outside, if you would not also say the same of Dragic. That’s it.

    52. I can’t tell if this suggests the Knicks have signed Plumlee 3.0 to an NBA contract or not:

      Congrats to @marshallplumlee on officially becoming a member of the @nyknicks! We could not be more excited for you!

    53. @50 They’re paying Baynes 2/12m and Leuer 4/40m also. Not sure what SVG is plotting over there unless he’s running a 3 man C rotation with Leuer as a stretch 4 next to all of them at various points.

      Kind of a weird use of resources. Felt like they could have used a better 3 point shooting SG. That and Leuer would have been a nice summer for them. They have a lot of young guys though so maybe SVG is banking on some internal improvement.

      We had 32 million in cap space. There was no pressing need to dump Jose’s contract.

      I think Hornacek didn’t want either of those guys on the roster next year. Jose because he sucks ass and RoLo because he thought he would struggle to play at the tempo he wanted and to adapt to a more aggressive defensive scheme. Just my thinking anyways which doesn’t count for a whole lot.

    54. Per Legion Hoops:
      Knicks are nearing an agreement with Duke center Marshall Plumlee.

    55. The crazy thing about Boban is that he’s really not a product of the Spurs’ system. He’s a center who stands in the paint, waits for a teammate to miss, and then flushes the offensive rebound basically without jumping. He’s a true physical freak in a league full of the world’s best all-around athletes. He will be productive anywhere. The only question mark is whether he can play 1500 hyper-productive minutes instead of 500.

      I thought the Spurs were keeping his visibility to a minimum so they could sign him for $9M over three years or something crazy like that, but apparently a $7M/year center who averaged 28.1 and 18.3 per 48 on 66.2% TS isn’t worth it to them. Like the Aldridge deal, this is something I just don’t understand at all.

    56. i think we gave a guaranteed contract to both plumlee and baker…. what’s not clear is whether or not it’s of the guaranteed money to come to camp variety…. sometimes they throw 100k to get them to commit to their camp tryouts and their SL squad…. if it’s multiyear then it probably means they are on the roster…

      which i can understand for baker… but plumlee is completely mystifying… someone should get fired for that….

    57. @Al_Iannazzone

      Hearing Knicks will sign center Marshall Plumlee to multi-Year deal with full guarantee for year 1. Plumlee is on their summer league team.

    58. i guess the marshall deal is official now… one year isn’t bad… but there has got to be better options out there…

    59. “Hearing Knicks will sign center Marshall Plumlee to multi-Year deal with full guarantee for year 1. Plumlee is on their summer league team.”
      At least it’s the right type of contract, if not the right Plumlee — they’re only locked into him for one year and, if he turns out to be good, he’s not expensive in year 2.

    60. Maybe the right comment had to be:
      “you have to give something to get rid of something”

      You give Chandler to get rid of Felton
      You give Shumpert to get rid of JR
      You give Rolo to get rid of Jose

      That is terrible decision-making. You don’t have to pay people to take your trash. You can just throw it away. Neither Felton, Smith, or Calderon impeded the salary flexibility of building the team that Phil Jackson put together.

    61. @4 Frank
      Re WillyH:

      Really struggled guarding the PNR.

      I saw some film of him yesterday on Posting and Toasting. Pay attention to the videos labeled D1, D2 and D3. It shows how Greek club Olympiacos attacked him. The film shows how he gets killed inside by dribble penetration. He’s especially vulnerable on double screens and gets totally lost. It’s all stuff he can (and must) work on but the NBA will take advantage of that weakness from day-1.

      On the plus side, he has an offensive game. He’s a terrific passer and would do well in the triangle offense. He just needs time to develop. He’s only 22.

    62. Yeah, we should probably be giving most of the remaining bench spots to young lottery tickets. I’m more interested in Ron Baker and Chasson Randle, but if Hornacek needs a Plumlee, we have a few roster spots that won’t amount to much either way.

    63. Again, I don’t think we gave RoLo to get rid of Calderon. We gave RoLo to get Rose, and Grant (who, if you believe that Redditor, the front office had soured on) to get rid of Calderon. I don’t love that trade no matter how you slice it, but I suspect the Bulls would have done Lopez for Rose, straight up.

    64. C: Noah, Willy H, Plumbo
      PF: Kristaps, O’Quinn
      Wings: Lance, Lee, Melo, Holliday, that new euro guy, Ron Baker (?)
      PG: Derrick Rose, Brandon Jennings

      Am I missing anyone? Looks like we need a 3rd PG

    65. C: Noah, Willy H, Plumbo
      PF: Kristaps, O’Quinn
      Wings: Lance, Lee, Melo, Holliday, that new euro guy, Ron Baker (?)
      PG: Derrick Rose, Brandon Jennings

      Am I missing anyone? Looks like we need a 3rd PG

      Basically we need more guards. Only having 4 total guards (not counting Baker) doesn’t sound like a good plan. Chasson Randle anyone?

    66. While it is true that the Knicks “Gave Shumpert to get rid of JR”, it turned out that JR Smith was far more valuable to this year’s Cavs. Shumpert got the big deal and JR got a small one. Even at the same money, JR was a better defender than Shumpert (amazing) and a far better offensive player. JR made better decisions with the ball and was far better at fighting through screens.

      I know that I vastly overestimated Shumpert’s ceiling because (1) he was a great leaper (while ignoring that he was a horrible finisher), (2) he was a great on-ball defender (those plays against DRose), while ignoring his constant habit of dying on screens and (3) the “Shump-Shump” thing just made me happy.

      When JR Smith is not playing hero ball – and limits himself to drives, 3s and defense – he is a valuable rotation player. When he is taking step-back 22 foot jumpers with 14 on the shot clock, untying sneakers and vamping, he is a danger.

    67. My guy! Give Randle a camp invite. It’s good that our roster is heavy on wings this year. I really don’t understand the Plumlee signing, but whatever there’s essentially no risk.

      Phil has shown himself to be terrible at trades. We gave Chandler, JR, and Shump for literally nothing. It’s sort of ironic that of those three JR has probably preformed the best (not that he is more productive than Chandler, but that he was an important piece for a championship team while Chandler hasn’t done much). That said, I don’t think we gave up Grant or Lopez to dump Calderon. He was used to match salaries and not lose any cap space, which I guess you could say is dumping him but I think it’s a little different.

    68. @62
      Those were all recyclable trash.

      We gave TC & RF and got back:
      Jose Calderon, Samuel Dalembert, Shane Larkin, Wayne Ellington, Cleanthony Early and Thanasis
      also
      We gave JR & Shump and got:
      Lance Thomas ,Lou Amundson, Alex Kirk + two trade exceptions while trying to clear space to attract FA

      Not bad for throwing away the trash !

    69. We have, what, 2 spots on the bench?

      Invite Randle and Vanvleet to training camp, let them battle it out

      Then sign one of Mcadoo, Montiejunas, T.Zeller, David Lee, Jameel Warney (if he’s good in training camp), Christian Wood (if he’s good in training camp) to the minimum

      And that should be 15, assuming we take Baker into the fold (we probably should.) Though my guess is we’ll resign Vuj for the vet min.

    70. @70 the only player of that list who’s still on the team is Lance Thomas. I understand why JR had to go, but is Lance Thomas really a more valuable player than JR? For our team he makes sense, but it’s also a testament to our dysfunction that we couldn’t get JR to reign it in

      It’s more complicated than this, but basically we gave up Tyson Chandler, JR, and Shump and got back Lance Thomas…

    71. Knicks had Alex Kirk? In the short run he could have been more useful than Willy.Last year in Italy he was great at shooting the 3 and rebounding.

    72. Ok people, Giving Grant or Lopez to dump Calderon is an exaggeration but Phil definitely wanted to get rid of Jose.
      As most Knicks,Dallas,Toronto fans wanted at some time of their lives !

    73. Watching the highlights of that Mindy guy… he’s a fine “guard” substitute in a pinch. He’s got point-forward type handle.

    74. Not bad for throwing away the trash !

      I thoroughly disagree.

      We didn’t need to get rid of Felton and Smith’s contracts, only their personalities. Either could have been waived and we could have eaten their salaries and been non the worse for it, while maintaining the assets used to “dump” them for future benefit.

    75. can we give these players multi year partially guaranteed deals for once or did Phil have to use every penny of cap space on this masterpiece of a roster, leaving nothing left to sweeten the annual salary of these guys a bit and get them to take longer deals?

      There’s a pretty good chance especially for any 3rd string PG we sign that he ends up getting 2k minutes.

    76. 4 guys on the roster who played for the Knicks last year. Since Phil has taken over he’s added 3 players to our roster. That’s insane.

    77. The Knicks need to give Chasson Randle a camp invite at the very least. He played great for us in summer league, and he also allowed the Knicks to move Baker to the 2 which gave us insight on how he could play as an off guard.

    78. can we give these players multi year partially guaranteed deals for once or did Phil have to use every penny of cap space on this masterpiece of a roster, leaving nothing left to sweeten the annual salary of these guys a bit and get them to take longer deals?

      Plumlee is a 3 year contract with only the 1st year fully guaranteed, per Twitter. Because it’s >2 years, we did have to use cap space.

    79. @78
      As far as i remember Phil had to trade both because of their player options that would fuck his freeagency plans up [but i may be wrong].
      I remember that he dumped Felton after his pistol/wife incident and Jr&Shump fearing that Jr will stay with us and Shump would be reinjured and would be untradeable right before Phil’s most crucial free agency period.
      Am i wrong ?

    80. Phil should acquire some more assets for when he needs to dump the guys he just signed, probably a year from now.

      #Knicks

    81. So the Hornacek Knicks should be expected to be a good to great defensive team with Lee, Thomas, Melo, Porzingis, and Noah all expected to be major parts of the rotation this season. I suspect we can be a great defensive team that pushes the tempo on offense. We’ll be inefficient for sure (unless Noah and Rose keep their TS% over .520, then we’ll be about average), but we should make up for that on offense by being a low turnover group that gets a lot of offensive rebounds. A healthy Knicks team could push for 50 wins this year with a good amount of those wins being produced defensively. 46-36 seems likely, and 35 wins the floor where everything goes to shit because Noah misses extended time.

      If Hernangomez is anything like Enes Kanter (12 points on a .600 TS% and 8 rebounds in 20 minutes a night), he gives us a shot at the division. Defense be damned, Kanter is a top 10 offensive player per minute in this league. I like the way the Knicks look I must admit.

    82. So you’re Phil and you’ve read the market and decided we need to have a healthy amount of cap space next year. You also need a SG. Your internal option is Langston Galloway, and your #1 target is Courntey Lee. Galloway can be had for 12 million or so over 2 years, Lee will cost you 50 million over 4 years. Galloway is 24, Lee is 30. Here’s what the crude publicly available advanced stats say they were worth last year:

      ESPN’s house metrics have Lee at 3.9 wins, Galloway at 3.2

      Win Share has Galloway producing 3.3 win shares, and Lee with 3.9

      Wins Produced (lol) has Lee producing 5.6 and Galloway 3.9 wins

      Let’s be really generous and say having Lee on the team will help us win 3 more games next season due to interaction effects. Is that worth the difference?

    83. don’t get too crazy over chasson…. older guys .. esp older guards tend to do well in summer league /dleague environments…

      doing well is better than not doing well but i wouldn’t put any stock into what he is currently doing…. and that’s what really annoys me about the prospects the knicks get.. aside from kp/wily.. they’ve all been 23+

    84. I look at the “depth” on this roster and other than the projected starting five, I see about two guys (maybe one and a half) who look like legitimate NBA rotation players: Brandon Jennings and Lance Thomas. The rest of the bench is made up of guys who are either question marks or who are guys you really do not want to see getting major minutes: O’Quinn, Hernangomez, Plumlee, Holiday, Baker and Kuzminkas. Considering that several of the Knicks starters plus Jennings are injury prone, this seems like a rather large problem.

    85. 35 wins the floor where everything goes to shit because Noah misses extended time

      If everything reasonably goes to shit this team will win like 20 games. Noah gets hurt early and misses most of the year, Kristaps improves, but not by a massive amount, Melo misses half a year, and Rose stays healthy, produces like last year, but keeps getting minutes because he’s a former MVP.

    86. we can get to 35 wins very very easily even if we get 2000 minutes from noah and rose… and that involves noah and rose playing exactly like they did last year….

      but i suppose that’s completely impossible and unreasonable to expect such an outlandish assumption….

    87. If Noah or Melo misses extended time, this team is cooked. And if Rose misses extended time, the point guard situation is comprised of Brandon Jennings and, uh, Ron Baker? The depth of this team is really, really iffy.

    88. – If LeBron gets hurt, the Cavs are cooked
      – If Kawhi Leonard gets hurt, the Spurs are cooked
      – If Isaiah Thomas gets hurt, the Celtics are cooked
      – If Chris Paul gets hurt, the Clippers are cooked.

      And so on, and so on……

    89. If Hernangomez is anything like Enes Kanter (12 points on a .600 TS% and 8 rebounds in 20 minutes a night), he gives us a shot at the division. Defense be damned, Kanter is a top 10 offensive player per minute in this league.

      What evidence is there to think that Hernangomez will be anything like Enes Kanter next year? I agree that a poor man’s Kanter could be what he turns into, but next year? I’d be happy if he could even stay on the court for 10-15 minutes a night.

    90. What a disaster last season would have been if we weren’t able to sign Afflalo or Williams.

    91. What evidence is there to think that Hernangomez will be anything like Enes Kanter next year?

      Projecting elite scoring ability for guys who can’t get off the bench for their Euro League teams is a big part of what we do around here. I’m not going to kick projecting elite scoring ability for guys who can’t get off the bench for their Euro League teams to the curb.

    92. No. I’m not saying Hernangomez will be Kanter good. That’s highly unlikely for anybody coming into the league. I was simply responding to the comments unthread saying Hernangomez is more Kanter than Gasol as if that’s some terrible indictment or something. Kanter is really good at basketball. If Hernangomez is that good, and I doubt he’ll be that good, we’ll have one of the best contracts in the NBA.

    93. Oh yeah, totally agree. Just reading reports and watching his scouting vids, he seems to be a player in a similar mold. Here’s hoping he develops. Phil’s international scouting was pretty spot on with KP, so there’s reason for optimism with Willy and Kuz

    94. I look at the “depth” on this roster and other than the projected starting five, I see about two guys (maybe one and a half) who look like legitimate NBA rotation players:

      While I generally feel you’re being a bit of a knee-jerk Phil hater, this is absolutely true. I just believe that we’re likely to get 75% of a season from each of our starters – probably 100% from KP and Lee, and minor injuries or rest for Noah, Rose, and Melo. And I am not all that concerned about Rose missing time, since I don’t expect a lot from him. (Fingers crossed I’m wrong.)

      But that’s why I think we’re a 43 win team, not better. KP will take a leap, Lee will be better than Afflalo, Melo is still good, and Noah is a beast on D. Good enough for more wins….except that injuries will prevent it from happening.

    95. @79 Latke

      can we give these players multi year partially guaranteed deals for once

      Have you paid any attention to free agency? The answer is NO, if we wanted to sign them.
      @85 Massive

      If Hernangomez is anything like Enes Kanter (12 points on a .600 TS% and 8 rebounds in 20 minutes a night), he gives us a shot at the division. Defense be damned, Kanter is a top 10 offensive player per minute in this league. I like the way the Knicks look I must admit.

      I doubt he’ll be that. He’s a likely D-league dude or a 12th man that’ll play every odd Tuesday.
      @86 DRed

      Let’s be really generous and say having Lee on the team will help us win 3 more games next season due to interaction effects. Is that worth the difference?

      The right question! Him alone, no. But do that times 4 and it’s 12 wins. Very few single players are going to up that substantially. Curry had a WS of 17.9. Only 13 players were 10+ in 2015-16. Improving by 2 or 3 is a significant upgrade.

      @89 DRed

      If everything reasonably goes to shit this team will win like 20 games. Noah gets hurt early and misses most of the year, Kristaps improves, but not by a massive amount, Melo misses half a year, and Rose stays healthy, produces like last year, but keeps getting minutes because he’s a former MVP.

      No. If their plane crashes we can go lower than that. I would rather ask, if nobody misses substantial time what is the floor. I cannot see it go below 35 wins.

    96. @Dred you’re ignoring the part where Galloway is an undersized 2 that hasn’t really played the 2 yet in his career. He can’t really shoot, he can’t drive, and I’m not sure he can actually defend 2’s in the NBA. I like him and if he improves his shooting he could be useful, but it’s not like he has that much upside.

    97. May I ask why people consider Goran Dragic a shooter but Brandon Jennings is a guy that can’t shoot?

      Their career 3FG% is within a hair of each other (Jennings is half a percent lower), but Jennings takes more than twice as many attempts per 36, which in my mind makes his ability to hit above .350 all the more impressive. Yet Dragic can shoot and Jennings can’t? What gives? I know Jennings has issues finishing around the rim and drawing FTs and his TS% suffers accordingly, but that really has nothing to do with his ability to space the floor with his 3pt shot.

      I just use my eyes to judge.

      Also as I have recently learned, previous stats have no bearing on future production.

    98. The key part of this offseason is that we got Noah. If Noah plays ~65 games we have a superstar. That trumps getting rid of Lopez, Grant, Galloway, or whoever.

    99. Also as I have recently learned, previous stats have no bearing on future production.

      +1.
      Stats matter to some degree, but the eye test says much more. I’m waiting to see before I give a verdict.

    100. Also as I have recently learned, previous stats have no bearing on future production.

      Unless they show that Jimmy Butler is the cause of Derrick Rose’s awful play. Then you can look at them.

    101. Also as I have recently learned, previous stats have no bearing on future production.

      I see the venerable Mike Kurylo has joined the straw-man game.

    102. Best ways to evaluate players:
      1. Eye test
      2. Gut
      3. Intuition
      4. Was he an All-Star five years ago?
      5. More eye test
      6. Ruff rydah test
      7-999. A bunch of other stuff
      1000. Stats

    103. Best ways to evaluate players:
      1. Eye test
      2. Gut
      3. Intuition
      4. Was he an All-Star five years ago?
      5. More eye test
      6. Ruff rydah test
      7-999. A bunch of other stuff
      1000. Stats

      You forgot Pointz!!!

    104. I see the venerable Mike Kurylo has joined the straw-man game.

      Yet somebody agrees with the obviously joking comment literally two posts later.

    105. I love this blog, but I have to say the one thing I find annoying is the dismissive tone that strictly stats oriented posters use when addressing those who are not wholly convinced by stats. Quite often, these comments come across as “I am smarter than you because I’m able to look at a set of numbers and thus judge the absolute value a given player brings to the table.” In fact, it’s quite easy to go to basketball-reference.com and figure out a player’s TS%, eFG%, WS, WS/48, ORtg, Dtrg etc. The problem is that it becomes difficult and pointless to argue beyond the stats when certain posters immediately shoot down anything you say about Derrick Rose, for example, because he posted a bad TS last year.

      While I agree that statistics are quite useful in evaluating performance, I also think there is room on this board for optimism and for people who write smart, reasoned posts that suggest there may be more to certain players’ performances, and to predicting future performances, than is demonstrated when strictly looking at numbers on basketball-reference.

    106. ESPN’s house metrics have Lee at 3.9 wins, Galloway at 3.2

      Win Share has Galloway producing 3.3 win shares, and Lee with 3.9

      Wins Produced (lol) has Lee producing 5.6 and Galloway 3.9 wins

      Let’s be really generous and say having Lee on the team will help us win 3 more games next season due to interaction effects. Is that worth the difference?

      At the end of the day I think Gallo was a poor fit for this team once Jennings was signed. He derives most of his non-defense value from his rebounding (which would have probably dropped a bit if Noah stays healthy) and the fact that he generates a decent amount of assists with very few turnovers (and again those assist numbers probably would’ve dropped playing next to ball-dominant points like Rose and Jennings). Even with Lee the Knicks are desperate for shooting and Gallo can’t shoot. I think Lee is an overpay but that doesn’t mean that the Knicks should’ve spent 12m on Gallo.

    107. As far as i remember Phil had to trade both because of their player options that would fuck his freeagency plans up [but i may be wrong].

      I mean, Phil’s free agency plans got fucked up regardless, so he really didn’t need to unload their contracts. As it was, the max guys rejected his advances, so Chandler and Shumpert were effectively used to rent Afflalo and Williams for a year.

      I said at the time, and I maintain, that paying people to take your bad contracts is worse than signing players to bad contracts in the first place. Phil didn’t sign Felton and Smith, but that is moot. They became his problem when he took over the team, and he could have simply waived them (accomplishing culture change), while still keeping Chander and Shumpert as tradable assets.

      And Felton and Smith, on top of all of this, a) weren’t expensive to eat, and b) were actually useful players for the teams that took them.

      I hate those trades, and not just in hindsight. I didn’t like it much when Walsh did it with Jefferies, but I at least understood the potential benefit (a chance at signing LeBron). But Phil was clearing cap space for his top choice, Greg Monroe. It’s not quite the same thing. It is bad franchise building.

    108. I would rather ask, if nobody misses substantial time what is the floor. I cannot see it go below 35 wins.

      Let’s say everyone stays pretty healthy, but some of the following happen:

      Melo starts to show his age and produces like an average NBA wing.
      Noah has declined a bit, and produces more or less like Lopez did (better on D, but worse on O).
      Derrick Rose doesn’t improve much and is one of the worst players in the NBA
      Porzingis gets better, but not much
      Lee declines a bit, and gives you what Galloway did last year
      It turns out Lance’s 3 point shooting was not for real
      The kids are not ready for prime time

      Some of those things happen and that team is worse than last seasons. I could see guys staying healthy the Knicks still winning 30ish games. I think they’ll do better, but that’s realistic possiblity.

    109. “I see the venerable Mike Kurylo has joined the straw-man game.”

      It never stops.

    110. Let’s say everyone stays pretty healthy, but some of the following happen:

      Melo starts to show his age and produces like an average NBA wing.
      Noah has declined a bit, and produces more or less like Lopez did (better on D, but worse on O).
      Derrick Rose doesn’t improve much and is one of the worst players in the NBA
      Porzingis gets better, but not much
      Lee declines a bit, and gives you what Galloway did last year
      It turns out Lance’s 3 point shooting was not for real
      The kids are not ready for prime time

      Some of those things happen and that team is worse than last seasons. I could see guys staying healthy the Knicks still winning 30ish games. I think they’ll do better, but that’s realistic possiblity.

      Then we sign a max free agent, deal some players, get a first round draft pick, and try again next year while still prepping for Prime KP.

    111. – If LeBron gets hurt, the Cavs are cooked
      – If Kawhi Leonard gets hurt, the Spurs are cooked
      – If Isaiah Thomas gets hurt, the Celtics are cooked
      – If Chris Paul gets hurt, the Clippers are cooked.

      And so on, and so on……

      Yeah, but none of these teams fall to 20 wins if any of the above happen. In fact, most still probably make the playoffs. That is the point of the original statement, I believe.

    112. @116

      Also, none of those players are particularly high injury risks. Melo, Rose and Noah have all missed 50% or more of a season just in the last two years.

    113. Dred you’re ignoring the part where Galloway is an undersized 2 that hasn’t really played the 2 yet in his career

      He’s not undersized, he’s short. His standing reach, wingspan and weight are all close to average for NBA 2-guards. You don’t guard people with the top of your head.

    114. He’s not undersized, he’s short. His standing reach, wingspan and weight are all close to average for NBA 2-guards. You don’t guard people with the top of your head.

      You do guard players with your legs, even then that means he’s going from a very long pg to a very average sg.

    115. For a healthy Noah to decline to RoLo levels would mean he’s at least 25% worse than he was last season (when he was bothered by injury). I just don’t see that as possible. I’m counting on Noah to be the Knicks’ best player this year and to produce 10 wins bare minimum. Here’s what I see as likely:

      1) The Knicks have a bottom ten offense this year. The eFG% will be hard to overcome, but we’ll be one of the best rebounding and turnover teams on both sides of the ball.
      2) Joakim Noah and Derrick Ross play 70 games a piece.
      3) Noah is his usual excellent self and Rose plays like an eye test superstar rough ryduh but gives us like a .120 WS/48.
      4) Melo staves off Father Time another season and plays the all around game he played last season.
      5) Porzingis takes a big step forward to lead the Knicks in TS%, eFG%, blocks, and defensive rebounds.
      6) Lee, Jennings, and Thomas play valuable ball for us. Lee and Thomas have above average TS’s while Jennings is around a .530.
      7) The Knicks get the fifth seed behind Cleveland, Boston, Atlanta, and Toronto.

    116. I don’t see any reason to expect Melo to decline next year. Here are his stats last year as compared to his career averages (in parens):

      TS% .530 (.545), TRB% 12.0 (10.4), AST% 21.9 (16.4), STL% 1.3 (1.5), BLK% 1.1 (1.0), TOV% 10.6 (11.1), WS/48 1.21 (1.35)

      While he did decline in TS and WS/48, these weren’t career low numbers. Elsewhere he was the same across the board and even a little better in terms of rebounding and assists. Unless he just falls off a cliff, and I don’t see any reason to assume that he would, it’s likely he’ll be able to maintain this sort of play.

    117. – If LeBron gets hurt, the Cavs are cooked
      – If Kawhi Leonard gets hurt, the Spurs are cooked
      – If Isaiah Thomas gets hurt, the Celtics are cooked
      – If Chris Paul gets hurt, the Clippers are cooked.

      Games played in last 2 NBA seasons:
      LeBron: 145
      Paul: 156
      Thomas: 149
      Leonard: 136
      Carmelo: 112

      So perhaps the question is more relevant for some players than others.

    118. “I see the venerable Mike Kurylo has joined the straw-man game.”

      It never stops.

      Yes take my most sarcastic post in the last 6 months and use that to eviscerate my whole voice.

      What’s the term for that again?

    119. Almost every stat-critical post on this website is about how the stats are flat-out wrong. Chandler’s overrated because he makes others less efficient, Carmelo’s underrated because he creates spacing and Kobe Assists, Calderon is shit because he only takes “easy” looks in NBA basketball.

      It’s not that stats are the end-all-be-all. It’s just that they’re better than your eyes and brain. No one is saying that the Knicks should just sign every high WP player available. It’s that many of us start with the stats and then make decisions.

    120. Ruru/Frank,

      My supposed straw-man comment was a snarky day-late reply to a commenter from yesterday who essentially reduced that stats are meaningless because they are a poor predictor of future events.

      So my question is this:
      Do you agree with that line of reasoning, or am I correct to ridicule/mock that claim?

    121. “I see the venerable Mike Kurylo has joined the straw-man game.”

      It never stops.

      That was not aimed directly at you, Mike.

      I, for some unknown reason, take comments with my full name in them personally.

    122. Why would the Knicks be one of the “best turnover teams” on both sides of the ball? They were dead last in the NBA last year at generating turnovers, and it’s not like they added a bunch of guys who are steals wizards. They also let the team leader in steals get away via free agency.

      On the offensive side, Rose, Lee and Noah all turned the ball over at a higher rate than the guys they are replacing.

    123. I love this blog, but I have to say the one thing I find annoying is the dismissive tone that strictly stats oriented posters use when addressing those who are not wholly convinced by stats. Quite often, these comments come across as “I am smarter than you because I’m able to look at a set of numbers and thus judge the absolute value a given player brings to the table.” In fact, it’s quite easy to go to basketball-reference.com and figure out a player’s TS%, eFG%, WS, WS/48, ORtg, Dtrg etc. The problem is that it becomes difficult and pointless to argue beyond the stats when certain posters immediately shoot down anything you say about Derrick Rose, for example, because he posted a bad TS last year.

      While I agree that statistics are quite useful in evaluating performance, I also think there is room on this board for optimism and for people who write smart, reasoned posts that suggest there may be more to certain players’ performances, and to predicting future performances, than is demonstrated when strictly looking at numbers on basketball-reference.

      Agree. However the optimistic posts usually fly in the face of statistics. Additionally they tend to go out of their way to trample all over stats to make their point.

      In discussion, there has to be a basis for fact. For instance you can’t discuss physics with someone who thinks the earth is flat. Now just like in physics, there are plenty of things that are unknown, and wiggle room for conjecture and discussion. But if you don’t start at the same basic level of understanding, there can be little civility.

      And I’ll be the first to say that stats are lacking. But they’re not nearly half as lacking as the naked eye, otherwise some NBA teams wouldn’t bother with stat departments. Heck advanced statistics wouldn’t even exist if the most smart/veteran NBA minds (aka front offices) didn’t make jaw dropping stupid mistakes over and over again.

      tldr; I advocate for both…

    124. Almost every stat-critical post on this website is about how the stats are flat-out wrong. Chandler’s overrated because he makes others less efficient, Carmelo’s underrated because he creates spacing and Kobe Assists, Calderon is shit because he only takes “easy” looks in NBA basketball.

      Everything here is true. Except the chandler arguement was moreso the Calderon arguement that he can only dunk. I value his offense more than some here however. The Melo and Calderon points are 100% true. The game isn’t played on paper. Melo creates easier looks for others by just being there. Coaches will tell his man to stay on him tight. Whereas Calderon doesn’t shoot. It just is what it is. It doesn’t mean that the stats are wrong, but it doesn’t mean that your eyes are lying.

    125. Games played in last 2 NBA seasons:
      LeBron: 145
      Paul: 156
      Thomas: 149
      Leonard: 136
      Carmelo: 112

      So perhaps the question is more relevant for some players than others.

      How about:
      Paul George 87
      Blake Griffin 102

      I guess they are the most likely to break down this year, as was Kevin Durant this season after playing 27 games in 2014-2015

    126. I don’t see any reason to expect Melo to decline next year. Here are his stats last year as compared to his career averages (in parens):

      TS% .530 (.545),

      Melo’s last 2 seasons, were among his 5 worst TS% years. Also note that two of those years were his first two years in the league. That dropping efficiency has me worried. Perhaps another canary in the coal mine is his % of shots at the rim. At his peak it was ~35-40%, the last two years it’s down to ~21/22%.

      That his value is primarily has a scorer means his shooting is essential to his production, which makes it all the more worrisome. Although as you noted, many of his other stats have remained, so there’s good news there.

      Of course it’s entirely possible that it was all due to crappy teammates, bad coaching, etc. But it’s hard to discard that.

    127. The game isn’t played on paper.

      Yet if you give me the four factors for each team, I can tell you with great accuracy who won the game. Funny how that works, huh?

    128. Melo and Noah both have lots of miles on them, and they’re at an age where players start to decline. That’s a huge problem with the way the team is constructed– we’re hoping those guys stave off decline long enough for the team to make some deep playoff runs but it’s a race against time. Maybe you squeeze a couple more great seasons out of those guys.
      Maybe not.

    129. Games played in last 2 NBA seasons:
      LeBron: 145
      Paul: 156
      Thomas: 149
      Leonard: 136
      Carmelo: 112

      So perhaps the question is more relevant for some players than others.

      How about:
      Paul George 87
      Blake Griffin 102

      I guess they are the most likely to break down this year, as was Kevin Durant this season after playing 27 games in 2014-2015

      Yes taking 2 years was silly, but it was the quickest way I could calculate for 5 players. However, if I had a fantasy league whose only stat was games played, I’d take the top three over the bottom three.

      And are you suggesting that Durant and Carmelo are both equally likely to stay healthy next year?

    130. The reason Melo is likely to decline is the grim spector of death moving inexorably towards us all. He’ll be 32. On average, NBA players decline between their age 31 and age 32 seasons.

    131. Yet if you give me the four factors for each team, I can tell you with great accuracy who won the game. Funny how that works, huh?

      You are totally right. But it’s not fullproof.

    132. @133

      You are so right about the at the rim numbers. I have been startled by that. I’m holding out hope that it was Melos bad knee that was holding him back.

    133. @127 marechal
      One thing I like a lot about what they do is putting their predictions in context by displaying the top 10 most similar players’ trajectories. For Noah’s, none started nearly as high as he did nor declined as sharply in the immediately preceding years. I don’t know if that means he’s more likely to bounce back to a higher level than they did. IIRC correctly how CARMELO works, I assume it might. I.e. it might mean he’s a bit atypical and the best comps they had for him didn’t have a realistic a prospect of regaining a high level of performance they never had to begin with.

      Another thing I like is that they give confidence intervals.

    134. @Mike I agree with what you are saying. It’s unhelpful to say Derrick Rose is good because I think he is good or because I watched his highlights and he looks good. The only thing that bothers me is the “I’m starter than you because I have the numbers rhetoric,” which I find so annoying precisely because we all have access to the same numbers. I’m simply condemning the occurrences when someone makes a nuanced argument citing certain statistics but then rationalizing why there may either be noise in those stats or they may not tell the whole story, only to be shot down with a one line statement such as “Player X has stat X and thus is bad at basketball.”

      re: Carmelo, I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt for 2014-15 when he played for 40 games on a dumpster fire of a roster before shutting in down for the year. He may not have played like peak Melo last year in terms of his scoring, but he did compensate by significantly upping his passing and rebounding, which is encouraging and suggests that he is willing to adjust his game to contribute in different ways. I think that will be particularly important as he ages.

    135. I apologize Mike Kurylo for giving you the +1. I didn’t realize that you were being sarcastic.

      I see the venerable Mike Kurylo has joined the straw-man game.

      Yet somebody agrees with the obviously joking comment literally two posts later.

    136. @141

      One thing I like a lot about what they do is putting their predictions in context by displaying the top 10 most similar players’ trajectories. For Noah’s, none started nearly as high as he did nor declined as sharply in the immediately preceding years. I don’t know if that means he’s more likely to bounce back to a higher level than they did. IIRC correctly how CARMELO works, I assume it might. I.e. it might mean he’s a bit atypical and the best comps they had for him didn’t have a realistic a prospect of regaining a high level of performance they never had to begin with.

      Yeah, there are some things that I like about it too. They are definitely very transparent about error bars, and the comparison curves are neat.

      Porzingis gets a pretty good projection, btw: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/kristaps-porzingis/

    137. small declines aren’t that bad… esp after an injury…. and most of the decline in production came from mediocre 3pt shooting… which isn’t entirely abnormal for him but it’s something you can expect to get better esp if his volume goes down…. he had plenty of ill advised 3pt attempts that i’m sure will go somewhere else like porzingis….

      he had a career high assist% which is also a good sign… which along with better 3pt shooting should mean good things to his long term value… as long as the knees are intact i don’t think there should be any fear in him totally collapsing…

    138. I give Melo a pass for his TS% last year, because it’s kind of unreasonable to expect the man to score with exquisite efficiency while being the team leader in points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game and steals per game. Add to that the fact that he played with a PG in Calderon who is, at this point, constitutionally incapable of breaking down a defense to create easy looks for his teammates, and .530 TS starts to look almost impressive when sustained at near 30% usage.

    139. Point being, I think it will do wonders for Melo playing with PGs who can actually get into the lane and a center whose passing game goes beyond holding the ball for 5 seconds and then handing it back to Calderon.

      But I guess that verges too close to the dreaded synergy argument, so never mind…

    140. 538’s CARMELO thing is a joke. Basing projections on “similar” players when there hasn’t been enough league and player history – and the history hasn’t been of a constant, unchanging game (no 3-point line, different ways of keeping stats) – to form a reasonable sample size is just dumb. Most players are unlike most other players, even (and especially) the great ones.

    141. Just thinking about the future… It seems to me what’s going to be crucial to our success over the next few years is finding key contributors in the middle of the draft. Unless we completely flame out, we should end up picking anywhere from the late lottery to early 20s for the next 2-3 years. If we can get guys that can come in and play off the bench, we should end up being a pretty good team, as our biggest concern is depth.

    142. small declines aren’t that bad… esp after an injury…. and most of the decline in production came from mediocre 3pt shooting… which isn’t entirely abnormal for him but it’s something you can expect to get better esp if his volume goes down…. he had plenty of ill advised 3pt attempts that i’m sure will go somewhere else like porzingis….

      This is the archetypal post of “stats aren’t everything.”

      1) If a player I like declines “slightly,” it’s not a big deal.
      2) His decline due to injury is especially not a big deal; let’s not talk about his age because age doesn’t matter to a superstar.
      3) His 3PT shooting is the reason he was less productive. (Career: .344, Season: .339, a difference of one FGM per 200 attempts)
      4) As his volume decreases, his efficiency will go up. (His two best years w/r/t 3P% were also his highest 3PA per possession years, so… uh, what?)
      5) His bad shot attempts will be taken by other players, thereby increasing his value.

      Is there any evidence for any of this?

    143. But but I thought letting bad shot attempts be taken by other players was why Calderon sucked. I’m confused.

    144. CARMELO projects Noah and RoLo at about the same level next year. Same for Rose and Grant. That includes error range. Galloway projects better than Lee. Apparently last year CARMELO was good but not great in projecting players and better at projecting teams. In case anyone was wanting some more stats-based pessimism. Their value stat doesn’t work so well because it can’t take the CBA into account but it isn’t particularly encouraging down the length of these contracts..

    145. I should add, not claiming that CARMELO is the end all be all it obviously isn’t. And Rose’s history is obviously an outlier. But when you’re talking about middle of the pack “dime a dozen” players like Grant, Galloway, Lee, you’d expect it to be more stable and a better predictor.
      Also CARMELO beat Vegas pretty handily over the course of last season.

    146. But but I thought letting bad shot attempts be taken by other players was why Calderon sucked. I’m confused.

      No you are right. That’s exactly it.

    147. You are totally right. But it’s not fullproof.< \blockquote>

      Bar for statistical analysis to be valid: 100% accuracy.

      Bar for eye test to be valid: none necessary.

    148. CARMELO projects Noah and RoLo at about the same level next year. Same for Rose and Grant. That includes error range. Galloway projects better than Lee.

      CARMELO more like DRED

    149. Any comments on Plumlee’s 3 year deal? From what I’ve read, only 1st year is guaranteed. Any news on the salary? I’m guessing at or not much more than the league minimum for the first year?

      A bit surprised by him rather that Baker, who has shown a lot more in the summer league.

    150. There’s been plenty of studies showing an inverse correlation between efficiency and usage. Not really sure why we’re discounting this.

    151. > The only thing that bothers me is the “I’m starter than you because I have the numbers rhetoric,” which I find so annoying precisely because we all have access to the same numbers.

      I’m guessing you mean better.

      And to this point I’d like to say that not all the same people use the same numbers. This is plainly clear. So while you and I are discussing usage and ts% Mike Wilbon’s metric is MVP votes and All Star appearances. (And maybe ppg).

      That said — is there a more important metric for high volume scorers than ts%? Yes it doesn’t mean you discount everything else, but I can’t think of a more relevant single stat.

    152. do any advanced stats show that if you are a Plumlee, you are basically a Plumlee?

    153. Any comments on Plumlee’s 3 year deal? From what I’ve read, only 1st year is guaranteed. Any news on the salary? I’m guessing at or not much more than the league minimum for the first year?

      A bit surprised by him rather that Baker, who has shown a lot more in the summer league.

      I think we already have Baker under contract (someone confirm this?). I assume Plumlee is min, or near min (I don’t think we have anything else). We’re likely just reserving the right to keep him for training camp. Wouldn’t be surprised if he got cut later, but min contracts don’t really affect us much at this point. Wouldn’t be surprised if we keep him either.

    154. There’s been plenty of studies showing an inverse correlation between efficiency and usage. Not really sure why we’re discounting this.

      Are there? I’m not saying you’re wrong, but everything I’ve seen shows very weak correlation between usage and efficiency.

    155. Looking at who is still free that we might be able to grab for min / cheap.

      G: Blake, Heinrich, Cole, Foye, Brooks, Lawson, Pablo, Andre Miller, Lebron James
      Bigs: Zeller, Lee, Varajao, Amare. Wow. that’s about it.

    156. One more possibility for the frontcourt, and we are interested:

      @MarcJSpearsESPN 31m31 minutes ago

      NBA free agent forward-center Drew Gooden has received inquiries from New York, Toronto, Lakers & Clippers, source said.

    157. @160
      I think the stat you are looking for is TP%. True Pedigree %, which is currently at 100% (3/3) for the Plumlee family!
      :-)

    158. do any advanced stats show that if you are a Plumlee, you are basically a Plumlee?

      The ones the Knicks looked at when they signed THJ and Chris Smith? This is def. an area in which the FO has not precisely improved during Jackson’s tenure. We grabbed the lesser Grant, the lesser Lopez, and now the lesser Plumlee.

    159. Are there? I’m not saying you’re wrong, but everything I’ve seen shows very weak correlation between usage and efficiency.

      http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.blogspot.com/2013/05/usage-versus-efficiency.html

      There’s a correlation, but the author agrees that Chandler is more valuable than Melo and that low-usage, high-efficiency players are valuable.

      The key, it seems, is to find one of those high-volume, high-efficiency players to fully ruin your opponents.

    160. Bar for statistical analysis to be valid: 100% accuracy.

      Bar for eye test to be valid: none necessary.

      What are you talking about? I’m talking about predictions not analysis. If you say a player isn’t good because of his %ts that’s analysis. Predictions for the upcoming year is not analysis. That’s making inferences based on previous stats. That’s what’s not fullproof. Damn you all are frustrating sometimes

    161. @150 – there is evidence for everything that i’ve stated… some are stronger than others but the volume shooting stuff was discussed previously….

      great players tend to age well…. melo might not fit that definition perfectly but he’s accrued over 90ws by 31 which not many players have… if you think he’s closer to cedric ceballos then maybe he won’t last that long but he’s more like dominique wilkins and he was really good up until 35 and he also had a pretty bad knee injury late in his career… it’s not just anecdotal either just look up the ages when great players have retired…

      melo’s rate stats have all remained steady… his ftr rate has dropped and that’s probably not coming back but he’s had two consecutive seasons as a knick of >.379 3p shooting… those were also his most valuable years… if he shoots better from 3 then he’s not that far off from his peak….

      you can define small blips however you like but a collapse is very obvious… it’s comparing westbrook vs rose… or penny vs chris paul.. paul pierce missed half a season at 29… posted a small decline at 30 but wound up playing at that level all the way up until his boston career… this is more anecdotal but there’s really only a couple of dozen or so comparables but the trends are pretty clear….

    162. The key, it seems, is to find one of those high-volume, high-efficiency players to fully ruin your opponents.

      What are there like 5 players in the league?

    163. Melo had a career low in assisted basket percentage.

      He also set a career high in drb% and assist %.

      Those indicators would suggest he was playing further away from the basket with the ball in his hands further out on the perimeter more than it does declining movement.

      His second lowest TS season in the last decade was not coincidentally his second best season as a passer (11-12).

      Basically it’s just an indicator of a change in roles.

      If you want more of the direct playmaker role for Melo, his scoring efficiency goes down. If you want him as more of an indirect playmaker in the mid-post creating double-teams, his efficiency goes up, and his assist rate goes down.

    164. There’s a correlation, but the author agrees that Chandler is more valuable than Melo and that low-usage, high-efficiency players are valuable.

      I don’t see this claim in the article (the chandler vs Melo one). I’m not necessarily disagreeing about Chandler vs. Melo though. I think the relevant question is really whether or not taking a Melo is the 2nd best approach if you miss out on that top tier of high ts% and usage.

    165. What’s funny is that Jowles apparently doesn’t realize that the study he references refutes almost everything he’s said on the matter while affirming the arguments I’ve made.

    166. @175 common sense would say yes if at a great price. If he shoots avg efficiency at high usage, that’s better than a player who shoots avg at lower usage

    167. “If one ignores this effect, then one is implying that players in a lineup with others who don’t shoot often will not suffer from any efficiency losses — that “shot creators” in basketball are not needed because everyone can create shots and that all shots are the same. Thinking about basketball from a practical perspective, if you send out a team composed of guys who have the offensive creation skills of Reggie Evans, you shouldn’t expect good results if the guys are efficient in most other lineups. Your offensive game can subsist on putbacks and wide-open layups from defensive breakdowns mostly caused by double teams, and you can have a healthy shooting percentage. But a player pressed into a greater role can no longer rely on that environment. Also, because of the shot clock invention, at some point a shot will need to be taken even if it’s contested in a broken offense, and it is far better for Carmelo Anthony to take that shot than Kenyon Martin despite Martin’s advantage in TS%. To argue otherwise is a misunderstanding of basketball.

    168. It’s entirely possible that Melo’s decline could be explained either by age, lack of competent pg’s, random variation, or all or none of these at the same time. We shouldn’t discount any factor as holding explanatory value, nor do I think we need (or can find) a definite conclusion.

    169. “For example, in 2010 Denver’s most popular lineup was Billups-Afflalo-Anthony-Martin-Nene. The average usage was 21.14 and the expected efficiency (weighted average of player usage and offensive rating) was 1.135 with 1033 possessions. Another one of their most used lineups was the same except Anthony, a 33.4 usage player and an offensive rating of 1.10, was replaced with Joey Graham, a 16.2 usage player with an offensive rating of 1.06. Because Joey Graham doesn’t have a terrible offensive rating and the other options were efficient, the lineup’s expected offensive efficiency barely decreased without Anthony (from 1.1352 to 1.1346.) However, the lineup’s efficiency actually crashed down to 1.0346 points per possession. In applying the coefficient, the lineup’s change in average usage (3.44) translates to a loss in efficiency of roughly 0.031 points per possession, which is in fact a huge change as it’s the same difference between the 9th ranked offense in LAL and the 18th ranked offense in Atlanta.”

    170. And no, the argument presented here is that players with average to above average efficiency at very high usage are much more valuable than average usage players at the same efficiency.

      That’s the point.

    171. Most people at least blame auto-correct, are non native speakers when they use made up words without realizing it DRose.

    172. @ ruru, the article also warns about citing specific cases, the numbers are better on average with higher usage, that doesn’t mean that Melo>Chandler. It doesn’t make this claim. Even though it cites an example with Melo in it doesn’t necessarily mean that Melo is a player that makes his teammates better, it’s only there for illustrative purposes. Neither does it make any claim about what point the tradeoff of efficiency vs usage ceases to be helpful. If Melo shoots .530ts% he may not make enough of an improvement on a lineup, especially if he’s paired with a bunch of inefficient scorers.

      In summary, the author most likely thinks highly of both Chandler and Melo.

    173. It’s called being a human. I don’t use that word. It was a mistake. I appalagize To the classy academicz hear. Let me take my stupid ass home.

    174. Now, this is the knickerblogger I know and love.
      The eyeballers getting taken to the woodshed.

    175. “I think the relevant question is really whether or not taking a Melo is the 2nd best approach if you miss out on that top tier of high ts% and usage.”

      First of all, there about as many Melos out there as there are Durants/Lebrons.

      Just as there are very few players in NBA history who have high usage, high efficiency (which basically gives you the chance at a deep playoff run every year), there are also very few (more than the Durant category of course) high-usage players with above average efficiency.

      The latter allows you to field very good offenses every year. Melo is 66th in all-time OBPM despite a merely above average career offensive rating.

      So, yes, there are ways to build really good teams without one high-usage, above average efficiency player, but I would surmise that it is more rare than building a really good team around a Melo-like player.

      While Melo is nowehre near Curry, Durant, Lebron, etc., but he’s a great offensive player by the virtue of forcing the defense’s attention, creatign easier shots for teammates, while also scoring at above average efficiency at very high usage.

    176. Phil didn’t sign Felton and Smith, but that is moot. They became his problem when he took over the team, and he could have simply waived them (accomplishing culture change), while still keeping Chander and Shumpert as tradable assets.

      He couldn’t just waive them and i remember that thing CLEARLY.
      That’s the reason he had to dump them by giving up something worthable.
      check this one:
      http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/knicks-nearing-trade-chandler-felton-mavs-article-1.1843928
      “Felton, who pleaded guilty this week to a lesser felony gun charge in exchange for avoiding jail time, is owed $4.36 million next season with a $4.54 million player option for 2015-16.”

      Dumping Felton and Jr were 2 more than reasonable moves that Phil made to change the culture, clean the cap space and secure that AT LEAST he would have a chance during these off seasons.

    177. @183

      I know he it made it clear that it was an average, but this study supports Melo’s career box score metrics as well as other studies analyzing his value on offense.

      And I didn’t say anything about Chandler>Melo. I always said that Chandler was a devastating offensive player because of his ability to screen, finish, make free throws and grab offensive rebounds. He also helped the Knicks floor-spacing greatly.

      My criticisms were of his highly overrated defense.

      Whether Chandler or Melo was more valuable to the offense? Hard to say. They were both great, and their games were complementary.

      My problem is with Jowles and WP, which as the author points out, argue the absurd, that usage is insignificant, there is no skill curve, and by implication, a team of 5 Chandlers would dominate.

      Of course Chandler is going to look almost infinitely better statistically than a player like Melo, but that does little to understand their respective values.

    178. We grabbed the lesser Grant, the lesser Lopez, and now the lesser Plumlee.

      Don’t forget the lesser Holiday(!)

    179. Honestly anybody that thinks Calderon is good at NBA level basketball anymore must have not watched the Knicks play ball for the last 2 years, which is understandable.

      When we offered Calderon up for 2 seasons for free nobody bit and when Chicago needed to move him to clear space for Wade they had to attach 2 second round picks to do it. Unless you think every single team in the league is stupid then the logical conclusion to reach here is that Calderon fucking blows despite his amazing 41.4% from 3 on 3.0 attempts per game in 28.9 minutes per night during his 2 years as Knick. I’d rather have a 33% three point shooter run point on that kind of shit volume that can stay in front of traffic cone.

      His percentages don’t mean shit, because he can’t penetrate and create for others or get up enough shots due to his slow release. If he could up his volume two more three point attempts per game then he’d have a lot more value, but he can’t because he’s washed. Good guy, seems like a nice teammate, but not an NBA level starting guard anymore and is on the fast track to being of the league after this season.

    180. He couldn’t just waive them and i remember that thing CLEARLY.
      That’s the reason he had to dump them

      Why couldn’t he waive them? What do you remember clearly? I don’t get it.

    181. On a different topic, it occurs to me that Derrick Williams hasn’t been signed by anyone. I’m a little surprised by this. Maybe he’s asking for too much money. Does anyone want him back?

    182. about CARMELO the projection system… as mentioned before… that and SCHOENE are very similar and they are both pretty flawed… there is a wide range of error given that some weird comps show up for players…. that’s mainly due to sample size and that there is a wide range of players and player types…

      nate silver developed PECOTA probably the best projection system of it’s time back when this stuff started becoming popular for baseball…. pelton and the 538 folks basically ripped it outfor basketball… but it’s just not as effective since the game is much younger and the player pool is miniscule compared to baseball… i think i read somewhere that only 4000 players have played in the nba ever…. and if you cut it down to the modern era (post 3pt) it’s probably a lot less than that…

      but it’s very helpful on a macro level as it does a few things pretty well… namely age curves and rookies/euros that enter the player pool… and because of that it does win projections very well….

    183. I will say this about next year’s team: Hornacek, unlike his purely triangular predecessors, seems to recognize that the long two-foot jumper is a lousy shot. The Knicks took an awful lot of those shots last year. There is not much continuity with last year’s roster, but getting away from goink-ball and embracing a more modern shot chart can only help.

    184. He couldn’t just waive them and i remember that thing CLEARLY.
      That’s the reason he had to dump them by giving up something worthable.
      check this one:
      http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/knicks-nearing-trade-chandler-felton-mavs-article-1.1843928
      “Felton, who pleaded guilty this week to a lesser felony gun charge in exchange for avoiding jail time, is owed $4.36 million next season with a $4.54 million player option for 2015-16.”

      Dumping Felton and Jr were 2 more than reasonable moves that Phil made to change the culture, clean the cap space and secure that AT LEAST he would have a chance during these off seasons.

      Yes, he could have waived them. Their player options would’ve become guaranteed but that’s it. So, we wouldn’t have been able to sign Afflalo, who cares?

    185. If you look at the comps on Noah’s projection you’ll see the flaws of the system. Noah’s a weird dude-he shoots like a defensive wing, defends like a C and passes like a G.

    186. @192
      Released/waived players with guaranteed contracts continue to be included in their former team’s payroll.
      So waiving them would have been pointless since his priority was to clear cap space.

    187. Yeah, the actual values showing how close he is to the comps in CARMELO are really low. No one matches him well at all.

    188. Released/waived players with guaranteed contracts continue to be included in their former team’s payroll.
      So waiving them would have been pointless since his priority was to clear cap space.

      Yes, that’s what I said. With the cap space he saved we signed Afflalo. So what?

    189. Call me CRAZY but i see every Phil’s GM-move as reasonable and the best possible under the circumstances that was made. Even the Melo NTC.

    190. @200
      Rome wasn’t built in a day.
      That’s why Phil signed a 5yrs contract.

    191. Released/waived players with guaranteed contracts continue to be included in their former team’s payroll.
      So waiving them would have been pointless since his priority was to clear cap space

      1) Jackson actually took on salary when he traded Felton for Calderon.

      2) The point I am making is that it is better to keep a player on the payroll than it is to pay to get him off the payroll.

      When Stan Van Gundy waived Josh Smith, the Pistons had to eat $26 million. They could have packaged smith with aka taboos Caldwell-Pope, or the pick that became Stanley Johnson, or some future asset. But Van Gundy, rightly, deducted that he couldn’t turn the Pistons into a championship contender during a single week in July, and players and picks are more important than cap space, especially to rebuilding teams (like the Knicks!).

    192. Call me CRAZY but i see every Phil’s GM-move as reasonable and the best possible under the circumstances that was made. Even the Melo NTC.

      I wouldn’t call you crazy. Just willfully ignorant.

      What’s funny is that Jowles apparently doesn’t realize that the study he references refutes almost everything he’s said on the matter while affirming the arguments I’ve made.

      Haha, what?

      What’s interesting is that even if you adjust Carmelo’s ORtg up and Chandler’s down to account for the differences in usage (even using the liberal coefficient of 0.2), Chandler is still better offensively than Carmelo this year. Over the past 3 years, Chandler has been consistently ridiculous and much better than Melo, but before that it seems like Melo was better overall on a usage-adjusted basis. But Melo has been much more consistent on the whole, while Chandler prior to 3 seasons ago was very up and down.

      So the real question for me is how did Chandler elevate his game to near elite status recently? (I think its pretty clear that he’s near elite now, especially when you factor in his defense, which everyone agrees to be among the best in the league) Three years is not exactly a small sample size either, so it doesn’t seem to be a fluke.

      Haha, um, no?

    193. Yes, he could have waived them. Their player options would’ve become guaranteed but that’s it. So, we wouldn’t have been able to sign Afflalo, who cares?

      JR + Felton made about $2m less combined than Calderon and even with their options picked up were set to expire this past May. Meanwhile, Calderon’s deal has another year on it. Knicks actually lost net cap space in the combo of those two deals. I feel like you could make a super detective team of Monk, Sherlock, Shawn Spencer and Agent Mulder to get to the bottom of WTF Jackson was thinking when he made that Chandler trade, and they’d all come away shrugging. Hell, even Scully would have to admit there must have been something supernatural involved.

    194. Rome wasn’t built in a day.
      That’s why Phil signed a 5yrs contract.

      Congratulations, we agree on something! Maybe you can explain why, if Rome wasn’t built in a day, it was a good idea to devalue our few assets in order to dump contracts that increased our cap by about $7M for one Summer? Wouldn’t cutting our losses for one year and using those assets to bring back useful assets more of a “Rome wasn’t built in a day” ethos?

    195. Knew Your Knicks,

      Even if all the deals Phil made were the best anyone could have done, you can still disagree with the direction of the team. Like many others on this board, I would have liked to grow with youth and not try to win now. That has nothing to do with Phil getting or not getting the best deal possible each time he made a trade. It has to do with who he went after.

    196. Knew Your Nicks: Call me CRAZY but i see every Phil’s GM-move as reasonable and the best possible under the circumstances that was made. Even the Melo NTC.

      So if we made a phone call to 2014 Knew Your Nicks and said, “let’s say Jackson makes perfect decisions for the next 2 years. How good do you think the Knicks will be in 15/16?” you would have responded, “With perfect decisions? 37 wins would be like the ultimate best case scenario.”

    197. @205 – Columbo would have asked one more question and unraveled the whole scheme.

    198. That has nothing to do with Phil getting or not getting the best deal possible each time he made a trade. It has to do with who he went after.

      A) I would say the two are intertwined. Winning trades is about recognizing the narrow windows of opportunity when teams become desperate in one way or another. You can’t get the most value if you corner yourself from a negotiating standpoint into only considering options that fit the path you come in hoping to take. Not only has Phil cornered himself by focusing on this cap space route but he also has largely cornered himself by focusing on the Triangle. In doing this, you put yourself in the position of that desperate team.

      B) Understanding your team’s position and the general direction it needs to take to reach the goal of winning a title is the most important skill a GM can have IMO, far more important than being able to smile pretty to win over that extra protected 2nd rounder in a deal. You hold onto that fading star a year too long, and his value can flip from netting you a 1st rounder to you having to pay a 1st rounder to get rid of him. You hold onto that rookie when you’re a 50 win team rather than using him to add talent, you might find your title window closes before that young kid has a chance to grow up. These are the choices that really matter.

    199. 1) Jackson actually took on salary when he traded Felton for Calderon.

      Correct, but he dumped Chandler’s contract also while upgrading[at least on character] his PG.

      I wouldn’t call you crazy. Just willfully ignorant.

      Why ?

      Congratulations, we agree on something! Maybe you can explain why, if Rome wasn’t built in a day, it was a good idea to devault our few assets in order to dump contracts that increased our cap by about $7M for one Summer? Wouldn’t cutting our losses for one year and using those assets to bring back useful assets more of a “Rome wasn’t built in a day” ethos?

      “Fame and reputation” is actually an asset in economics.DRose + his pal Noah upgrade us on this field of assets.

      Even if all the deals Phil made were the best anyone could have done, you can still disagree with the direction of the team. Like many others on this board, I would have liked to grow with youth and not try to win now. That has nothing to do with Phil getting or not getting the best deal possible each time he made a trade. It has to do with who he went after.

      Phil’s team is a 2hours movie with a great protagonist[Melo] a super young natural talent in his first film[KP] and an everchanging support cast that keeps the plot going.We’ve seen the 2/5 of the film and more of you have started yelling and booing from the first minute !!!!

      Have patience my friends.This movie is not over yet.

      [Now hit me !!!]

    200. Correct, but he dump Chandler’s contract also while upgrading[at least on character] his PG.

      Chandler’s contract didn’t need to be dumped. He was expiring and the KNicks had no cap space. There was zero cap benefit to getting rid of Chandler. The only benefit was it let us tank better! (accidentally)

      If you want character, sign an old man to a vet minimum deal. The character/veteran argument is so tired. With the way Phil built the last couple years, it’s like he thought the mentors needed mentors.

    201. “Fame and reputation” is actually an asset in economics.DRose + his pal Noah upgrade us on this field of assets.

      Even if I were to agree that fame and reputation produce some benefit on the court, either now or in the future, what the fuck do Rose and Noah have to do with the Chandler/JR trades?

    202. @208
      If you were the Knicks GM what you would have done different ?
      Tanking all the way like the sixers ?
      Is this “piece of shit strategy” so difficult to do it ?
      Or will you had been conservative and try to make the Knicks great on 2025 while KP when KP will b eon his prime ?
      Well, what ?

    203. “Fame and reputation” is actually an asset in economics.DRose + his pal Noah upgrade us on this field of assets.

      This is true! Unfortunately fame and reputation might put asses in seats (I heard that the Garden didn’t fully sell out for a couple of games!) but they don’t help win basketball games and they don’t help build a consistently competitive team.

    204. If you were the Knicks GM what you would have done different ?
      Tanking all the way like the sixers ?
      Is this “piece of shit strategy” so difficult to do it ?
      Or will you had been conservative and try to make the Knicks great on 2025 while KP when KP will b eon his prime ?
      Well, what ?

      If you don’t want to go to Peter Luger for dinner because it’s too expensive, what will you do, eat scraps out of the dumpster? Just starve yourself? Maybe you want to go home and fish some turds out of the toilet and make ourselves some poopy smoothies?

      That’s what this argument sounds like to me.

    205. @204

      Are you just really lazy?

      I don’t get it.

      Not enough sophistry for you, I guess.

    206. Chandler’s contract didn’t need to be dumped. He was expiring and the KNicks had no cap space. There was zero cap benefit to getting rid of Chandler. The only benefit was it let us tank better! (accidentally)

      You’re right.Chandler was the bait to get rid of Felton’s 2 more yrs.

      If you want character, sign an old man to a vet minimum deal. The character/veteran argument is so tired.

      When i say upgraded the character of his PG i mean that he got rid of Felton who was acting strangely and violently these days.

    207. They would rather stare at their navels, wring their hands, look at their stats and their 2025 calenders, and, of course, complain about everything.

    208. Phil traded Chandler for Calderon despite the fact that there was three years remaining on Calderon’s contract, because he thought Calderon would help the team in a win-now kind of way. And then of course two years later, he finds himself having to give away another asset to rid himself of Calderon. In the meantime the Knicks spent Calderon’s two years sucking really bad at basketball.

      Instead of the win-now trade for Calderon, the better move would have been to flip a Chandler for a pick or player who might actually have value to the Knicks down the road.

    209. Phil’s been in charge for 2 years now and we’ve got Porzingis, Kyle O’Quinn, Lance Thomas, Willy Hernangomez and an additional second round pick or two to show for all his maneuvering. That doesn’t seem awesome

    210. You’re right.Chandler was the bait to get rid of Felton’s 2 more yrs.

      He could have just waived Felton and traded Chandler for something that would actually help us. Honest question, what are you not understanding?

    211. @217
      We have a different approach in assets as it seems.
      I considered as Knicks ASSETS-and didn’t want to lose ONLY 2 players.
      All the others were expendable, tradeable and replaceable.
      What do i think about the Rose trade ?
      Phil traded “1 good but replaceable”and “1 promising” player for “fame & reputation”
      That’s it.

      What do you think about the Blazers rebuilding mode ?
      Was it smart to let go/lose their starting 4 ?

    212. Jerian Grant will be playing in the summer league for those of you who miss watching him fall down a lot.

    213. If you were the Knicks GM what you would have done different?

      Jackson’s first year wasn’t great, but I was pretty upbeat about our direction after last summer. I’m upbeat on Horny! I liked his overall plan, which was described (in general terms) as develop a better culture and change how the Knicks do business. It appeared like Jackson was doing several encouraging things, to wit:

      Acquire, hold on to, and develop young players. Some will work out, most won’t, but if you want to succeed you need home grown talent. This also helps teams be more consistent. It also takes time, and the patience with Galloway and to a lesser degree Early and Thanasis made this appear to be part of his plan.

      If you’re hiring free agents, don’t max out guys who aren’t the very top guys because they just aren’t a good return on cap space (like Monroe who we didn’t offer a max to) but instead look for solid above average guys who will outperform their contracts (like RoLo). Again, you have to have surplus value to succeed.

      Because we don’t have picks (and to a lesser degree even if we did) take fliers on guys who had some indications of potential but were being slept on. Whiteside would be the best current example in the league, but Thomas, O’Quinn, and Williams qualify too. Again, most aren’t going to work out but some hopefully will. Ideally you get them on deals that keep them around and turn them into surplus value.

      Have patience. Accept that it will take some time because we’re starting from nothing. Don’t chase names just because they’re names and you feel you have to do something now just to be doing something. You don’t even need to trade Melo for it to work.

      We sucked last year, but we were a fun team for the first half of the year and with a decent coach we probably win ~1/2 of the many close games we lost. Not so bad to build from! But then some shit happened and almost all the promising things Jackson had done…

    214. Dred,

      That’s actually so different from previous Knicks standard operating procedure, it’s one of the best things about Phil as GM. But he clearly could have done better in this regard and chose not to.

    215. Phil traded Chandler for Calderon despite the fact that there was three years remaining on Calderon’s contract, because he thought Calderon would help the team in a win-now kind of way. And then of course two years later, he finds himself having to give away another asset to rid himself of Calderon. In the meantime the Knicks spent Calderon’s two years sucking really bad at basketball.

      The main reason for that trade was getting rid of Felton.
      Almost any knick fan [except Donnie Walsh] embraced that move as i rememberwhile chatting on the official knicks site.

      Instead of the win-now trade for Calderon, the better move would have been to flip a Chandler for a pick or player who might actually have value to the Knicks down the road.

      You don’t get Calderon to win-now…com’on ! That wasn’t the idea of this trade.
      And he got 2nd rd picks on this trade.

    216. That’s not a 2025 plan, but it might be a 2018 plan. Which to me is better than a win now plan that’s highly unlikely to work and probably locks in poor performance (based on age and injuries, but mostly age) until 2019. Go Knicks.

    217. The Blazers didn’t let go of their starting PF. He chose to leave. Sure seems to have worked out okay for them. If I was GM, I’d start with the premise that you can’t buy a great team. You need a core of underpaid players to be a great team. To even be a pretty good team, you need that core. You won’t get that in free agency where you’re competing with 29 other front offices who spend millions researching the values of players.

      If I’m going to sign a free agent, I’d rather sign one with the chance to outperform his contract even if it’s a small one with a big risk that he dramatically underperforms than sign a guy who will reliably be mildly overpriced. If the player bombs, he eats my cap for a little while and then goes away. If he doesn’t, I actually now have something of value either to the team or in trade. The alternative guarantees I won’t have something of value.

      Once the team has that core of undrepriced talent, I’m down to sign “known quantity” free agents even though I have to overpay. Great thing about having that underpriced core is it means my team is better, which means I won’t have to overpay as much for “known quantity” free agents. It’s a win win.

      I’m never giving away assets to get rid of bad contracts when I know bad contracts expire, relieving me of their cost for free. I won’t do this because I know I’m in a very competitive environment. I won’t ever compete with the best teams if I sacrifice talent for a short term boost. That’s like trying to use a cash advance on your credit card to become richer.

    218. The main reason for that trade was getting rid of Felton.
      Almost any knick fan [except Donnie Walsh] embraced that move as i rememberwhile chatting on the official knicks site.

      You don’t get Calderon to win-now…com’on ! That wasn’t the idea of this trade.
      And he got 2nd rd picks on this trade.

      You still haven’t answered why we couldn’t waive Felton and trade Tyson for something good. And Phil himself said that the goal of the trade was to improve and make the playoffs that season.

    219. A lot of people have explored usage and efficiency. And will continue to. I have read and participated in numerous threads at APBRmetrics, Wages of Wins, here, and elsewhere on the topic. The statistical conclusions to be drawn are pretty murky once you move away from extreme scenarios. It’s not simple.

      Yes, Reggie Evans is never going to be a primary scorer. And yes, taking a player from a role he is very ill suited for is often helpful. But finding any kind of clean, linear relationship between usage and efficiency in the muck and mire of NBA basketball is really, really hard.

    220. You’re right.Chandler was the bait to get rid of Felton’s 2 more yrs.

      Yes, and that is what I am telling you is dumb, and what I would have done differently as GM. Same as Shumpert being bait to trade Smith. Dumb, especially for a rebuilding team with no particular Free Agent target in its sights.

    221. I don’t see Phil’s plan as a win-now plan.
      He may calls it “win-now” [maybe to persuade Melo that it is] but it’s definitely a “win whenever you get the chance ” plan to me.
      Phl is a smart guy.
      When the Knicks will take a step back i’ll be the first to admit it.Till then i won’t say “why this” and “why that” while he cleans the roster, cleans the cap, cleans the culture, upgrades the positive vibes of the franchise and upgrades the team’s record also.

      What are you people ?
      Masochists ?

    222. Rome wasn’t built in a day.
      That’s why Phil signed a 5yrs contract.

      Neither was the Staten Island garbage dump.

      Although that was created by acquiring useless trash.

    223. They would rather stare at their navels, wring their hands, look at their stats and their 2025 calenders, and, of course, complain about everything.

      Actually, we were here in 2007, looking at our 2010 calendars; and here in 2013, looking at our 2016 calendars; and only now are we looking at our 2025 calendars because our team has made the same bad decisions every year since we began looking at our calendars.

      I just don’t get it. We are patient, somewhat smart people. If the Knicks had made just one or two fundamental changes, this decade could have been so much more successful.

    224. I don’t like it but I can see some logic in signing Noah, it is a high risk move that could be very good for at least the first half of the deal and he is a great leader and role model for KP. The Courtney Lee signing on the other hand is worse. He is a good player and will most likely be valuable but he is the definition of a solid but pretty average NBA starter. He is worth exactly what we are paying him and is going to start to decline before his contract is up. He is a high floor, low ceiling signing, the exact signing you do if you think you are ready to compete now and don’t need home runs to become good. It is the kind of signing Memphis or San Antonio or Cleveland would make if they had a hole at SG. This line of thinking is what is wrong with Phil Jackson, he thinks we are ready to compete now. We are not.

      To really get better we need players to exceed their contracts and players that will retain their value as Melo declines. We need riskier signings, we need higher ceiling, younger players, even if their floor is much lower. For Lee’s 10 million this year we could have gotten Troy Daniels or Lance Stephenson and another good player like Terrence Jones or Moe Harkless. Or we could have gone for more expensive youth and chased Tyler Johnson or Allen Crabbe.

      People act like the only choices are trying to win right now or tanking. The best choice is a patient rebuild. One where each off season you add a couple more long term pieces and each year you get a little better. Adding 10+ new players every year is ineffective, signing 30+ year old players as major pieces when your championship window is years away is short-sighted. This team is on a downward trajectory from day one.

    225. @230
      We’re not talking about a starting PF but about 4 starters who could give Portland many back.

      @231
      Maybe Phil missed that golden opportunity.I really don’t know…

      @235
      For me dumb is letting Harden go or picking ABennet at no1 or “MAYBE “losing KD or LBJ for nothing.
      But tradeing Chandler,Shump to dump JR and Felton ?
      Dumb is a very strong word for this kind of move…
      i’d call those moves as Jazz. Free Jazz

    226. Williams was fun to watch, the few times I actually watched a game last season. The Knicks would have to give him the min though, correct?

    227. How is “Try to convince major free agents to sign here” anything other than a win now plan?

    228. That’s how i see the Knicks this season:

      We’re NOT in WIN-NOW mode.
      We’re pretending that we are.
      That’s official.
      But if we find the chance to WIN NOW …Why Not ?

      i’d call our team state as “Awaken mode”

    229. How is “Try to convince major free agents to sign here” anything other than a win now plan?

      If Phil can get us here Westbrook or CP3 or KD or LBJ or another player that can make the difference we’re definitely getting into “WIN-NOW” mode.

      Till then we’re trying to upgrade everything good and downgrade everything bad.
      It’s common sense, it’s happening, let’s all enjoy it !
      We could also use/need Luck and Health.

    230. Till then we’re trying to upgrade everything good and downgrade everything bad.

      This is what literally every team in the league in every sport in the world tries to do. The question isn’t, “Is Phil Jackson trying to improve the Knicks?” The questions is, “Is Phil Jackson improving the team now and for the future?”

    231. This is what literally every team in the league in every sport in the world tries to do. The question isn’t, “Is Phil Jackson trying to improve the Knicks?” The questions is, “Is Phil Jackson improving the team now and for the future?”

      3 yrs ago every Knicks fan i know was saying “Give Phil the keys, Dolan”
      Now that he gave Phil the keys we’re not happy again !
      What do we really want ?
      To cry over the knicks all the time ?
      Are we really knicks fans who want the team to succeed or are we professional murmurers ?
      i mean…com’on…let the man work

    232. People act like the only choices are trying to win right now or tanking. The best choice is a patient rebuild. One where each off season you add a couple more long term pieces and each year you get a little better. Adding 10+ new players every year is ineffective, signing 30+ year old players as major pieces when your championship window is years away is short-sighted. This team is on a downward trajectory from day one.

      Yes.

    233. Ok, I’m done with this conversation. Anytime I or anyone else asks a question or counters something you wrote you change the subject.

    234. i mean…com’on…let the man work

      This is his third off season. So far we’ve had wildly inconsistent moves coupled with impatience and undervaluing of our assets. The on floor results have been dismal, and prospects for improvement are dim. The best you can say is that it’s been worse. That is not a ringing endorsement.

    235. Nobody is perfect.Phil is not perfect.He’ll make mistakes.Who doesn’t.
      But at least he seems true and he tries to make the Knicks a succesful team.
      Why not embrace his effort ?
      Personally i feel that he’s trying to follow the spurs model [Good Character guys, team bball, many europeans]
      I really like Spurs’ bball and i ‘d love to see it played by the knicks.
      Will he succeed ?
      I don’t know…but i’ll be here supporting him.
      [Sorry if you feel that i’m always changing the subject but i feel like answering in almost each question as best as i can]

    236. Phil’s been in charge for 2 years now and we’ve got Porzingis, Kyle O’Quinn, Lance Thomas, Willy Hernangomez and an additional second round pick or two to show for all his maneuvering. That doesn’t seem awesome

      You guys always fail to mention he didn’t have a pick in 2014 and 2016 to score young talent with. Do we have to incessantly go round and round with this?

      He also kept the building virtually full at a relatively low payroll which I’m sure his boss appreciates. He also scored possibly a franchise talent by being smart enough to switch strategy on the fly

    237. Phil’s been in charge for 2 years now and we’ve got Porzingis, Kyle O’Quinn, Lance Thomas, Willy Hernangomez and an additional second round pick or two to show for all his maneuvering. That doesn’t seem awesome

      He’s netted 4 second round picks total (2 from the Chandler trade, bought the pick we used on Labeyrie, traded 2 for the rights to Willy, 2 for Pablo, 1 in the JR/Shump trade, 1 in the Rose deal and traded 1 to dump Outlaw which was his worst move easily and the right for Philly to swap with us 2018). Drafting Porzingis with his only lottery pick because previous GMs had dumped 2 of his first 3 is a pretty sweet move and one that gets brushed away by ridiculous cynics with “well he would have drafted Okafor” even though this logic could explain away a lot of great picks other GMs have made that get lauded. His haul would look a lot better if he had those 2 firsts that were gone before Phil ever took the job.

      And only now are we looking at our 2025 calendars because our team has made the same bad decisions every year since we began looking at our calendars.

      Last I checked the main issue with those disasters was trading away future assets for the promise of now and therefore not having a hedge against potential or even likely disaster. Phil hasn’t done that. You can bitch about the signings he made or not getting fair value in deals, but he hasn’t staked the future of the franchise for the Eddy Currys, to chase a cockamamie pipe dream of “summer of 2010” or the mythical legend of “good Bargnani” (a myth I talked myself in to but never again).

      Fine, you can argue Jackson is bad at signing players and over values cap space, but his bad decisions aren’t set to ruin this franchise for the next 5 years.

      The hyperbole is absurd.

    238. @252

      tl;dr

      Be happy that Jackson is merely bad, and not worst.

    239. This is his third off season. So far we’ve had wildly inconsistent moves coupled with impatience and undervaluing of our assets. The on floor results have been dismal, and prospects for improvement are dim. The best you can say is that it’s been worse. That is not a ringing endorsement.

      I see his moves differently. I see cap flexibility, brighter future based on his no4 draft pick, better “fame & reputation” of our team due to his trades/culture change, retained future draft picks, not overpaid players, not “burden” contracts, promising new coach.
      The least i can say is that future looks brighter.

    240. Personally i feel that he’s trying to follow the spurs model

      He was doing this. Which was great! Now he’s not. Which is not great.

    241. Phil isn’t doing a good job because his predecessors sucked. He’s just doing a better job than them. I’d give him something like a C so far on his tenure. It’s two steps forward 1.5 steps back.

    242. He was doing this. Which was great! Now he’s not. Which is not great.

      Yes, it’s quite possible his shift this summer makes us a bad basketball team. That will really suck, but as long as we keep our first round picks then I’m very okay with that outcome.

      What would suck is that Dolan will probably out of the contract and then start shipping out our first round picks.

      All I’m saying is Phil is likely neither the savior nor close to the franchise crippling shit we were served under previous regimes. Maybe he’s just below average or meh. It doesn’t need to be amazing or the worst ever which seems to be the only sides people want to choose.

      Personally would rather his rather bold gambles work out, but it’s the Knicks, so probably not.

    243. Phil isn’t doing a good job because his predecessors sucked. He’s just doing a better job than them. I’d give him something like a C so far on his tenure. It’s two steps forward 1.5 steps back.

      When your predecessors have just lost WWII you can’t rule the world the next year !

    244. Phil isn’t doing a good job because his predecessors sucked. He’s just doing a better job than them. I’d give him something like a C so far on his tenure. It’s two steps forward 1.5 steps back.

      This sounds accurate. I’d give him a B- purely for Porzingis who I think is a franchise level talent, but yeah that works too.

    245. He was doing this. Which was great! Now he’s not. Which is not great.

      I truly believe he’s still doing it…[undercover]

    246. I see cap flexibility,

      Yeah, we don’t really have much of that after this last week. We used to though! The week before. Now we’re gonna have to work to afford a max contract next year when the better FAs become available.

      brighter future based on his no4 draft pick,

      Which is unquestionably a good thing.

      better “fame & reputation” of our team due to his trades/culture change,

      fame & reputation wins exactly zero basketball games. I like a better culture! Rolling over the roster every year does not help with that.

      retained future draft picks,

      Also good! Not great. Overvalued here since we’ve been handing them out like candy at halloween since forever.

      not overpaid players,

      hahahahahahaha! Oh man.

      not “burden” contracts,

      Yeah, 4 & 5 year contracts for substantial chunks of the cap space to players who are past their prime is the definition of burden contracts. We’re sitting on three of those now. You do know that the cap is not going to continue rising, yes?

      promising new coach.

      Also a good thing! I very much hope it works out.

      Again, not a ringing endorsement.

    247. Yeah, 4 & 5 year contracts for substantial chunks of the cap space to players who are past their prime is the definition of burden contracts. We’re sitting on three of those now. You do know that the cap is not going to continue rising, yes?

      If the Knicks decide in January to blow it up you really think they’ll have a tough time moving Melo and Lee? Noah I can see the other 2 I think there’d be a number of teams willing to deal. Even if all you got back was cap relief I don’t see the Melo or Lee deals as “burdensome”. The Calderon contract which nobody wanted to touch is burdensome.

    248. When your predecessors have just lost WWII you can’t rule the world the next year !

      Ladies and Gentlemen, your New York Axis Powers!

      I think comparing Dolan to Hitler is going a little too far.

    249. Ladies and Gentlemen, your New York Axis Powers!

      I think comparing Dolan to Hitler is going a little too far.

      It was clearly a metaphor.
      After all Dolan has a beard, not a moustache !

    250. Melo we’re stuck with, but would be movable in other circumstances. Noah, if he’s healthy, is movable but less so than RoLo was just on age/cost. Lee is getting a lot of money for playing solid but pretty average basketball and is on the wrong side of 30. He’s been in demand up till now but this new contract pays him around double his previous AAV. Would someone go for it next year in the context of a better free agent class? I don’t think he’ll be that attractive to other teams. Calderon had one more year at less money, we didn’t really need to move him.

    251. Lee I reckon can be moved because his contract isn’t that expensive in this brave new world. Might cost us a sweetener though.

      My phone just alerted me that Andrew Bogut has joined the Dallas Mavericks. Odd.

    252. Effective teams DEFINITELY attract good players but also goodplayers are not attracted by teams with Bullies, bad culture, losing mentality etc.

      Can you imagine a Top FA going to the Sacramento or to the Sixers… or to the Rondo’s bulls ?

    253. Melo we’re stuck with, but would be movable in other circumstances.

      He’s movable now. If we blow chunks and he wants out we won’t struggle to find suitors.

      Lee is getting a lot of money for playing solid but pretty average basketball and is on the wrong side of 30. He’s been in demand up till now but this new contract pays him around double his previous AAV. Would someone go for it next year in the context of a better free agent class? I don’t think he’ll be that attractive to other teams. Calderon had one more year at less money, we didn’t really need to move him.

      Courtney Lee is a better player right now than Calderon was for the last 3 years. Lee also is a 2/3 wing which has become a high demand position with teams playing smaller and switching. Also Jamal Crawford just got 3/$42m among other big deals for non great players. Will be shocked if the Knicks can’t move a $12.5m AAV deal for a 38.4% career 3 point shooter that has a reputation for being solid defensively for nothing but a team’s cap space.

    254. It’s gonna be hilarious when we all learn that Melo’s got a NO AMNESTY clause in his contract.

    255. @271
      Sorry for the ghetto/rappers comment.
      Unfortunately english is not my native language and i don’t live in the states so i guess i said a dumb thing w/o even realizing it tbh.
      Anyway
      I’M REALLY SORRY if i offended someone and i promise to be far more careful while posting.

    256. You can tell that Jackson’s moves have been pretty bad by the way that no one seems to be able to describe what direction they’re geared towards. I mean, a week ago people were saying the Rose trade was clearly made with stealth tanking in mind…then we signed Lee, Noah, Jennings, etc. Now people are saying his moves were made with attracting next year’s free agents in mind…but we actually don’t stand to have max space, and even if we did that isn’t really a direction. It’s more like the lack of one, actually.

      So I’ll ask, what the hell is Phil Jackson trying to do?

    257. if noah goes down again this year…. i highly doubt that anyone is going to go within 10 ft of that contract….

      out of all the question marks heading into the season…. noah’s health is the most crucial… and if he can play decent basketball then the next 4 yrs should be ok… if he pulls up lame again… we are not going to be competitive for at least the next 3 years….

    258. So I’ll ask, what the hell is Phil Jackson trying to do?

      I’m not sure. Mostly because of the Rose trade. The other moves I can see the logic behind even if I don’t agree they were the right decision. But I really don’t understand what the goal of the Rose trade was.

    259. Damn, the Nets offering Crabbe 19 million per for 4 years. That’s a spicy meatball!

    260. It’s impossible for the knicks to build for the future without 1st round draft picks. Phil has done a good job both building for the future and trying to put together a good product for today. He’s got Porzingins, he’s taken fliers on young guys who haven’t worked out. But Phil has generally dumped bad teams while maintaining cap flexibility, keeping 1st rounders, and grabbing assets where he can. I don’t agree with all his moves, but there’s no possibility of a full rebuild before we have our own pick.

    261. @277 – I didn’t like the Rose trade because I didn’t see what Phil was doing. Maybe we should give him credit? Here’s a theory: He traded for Rose and a serviceable guard (Holiday) because he thought he could leverage that to get Noah and then, with both, he could draw others. The new reality is that players draw players to teams. LeBron joins Bosh and Wade. Durant joins Curry, Clay and Draymond.

      Melo and KP might not be enough of a free agent draw but add Rose and Noah? Now there’s a foundation that an established player says they can help put over the top. Cleveland and Golden State put a wrench into the works, but only 30 players can be on those two teams ;)

    262. I was hoping the Rose trade was for a stealth tank, mostly because I was hopeful about the direction I thought we were headed in. Now.. I guess Jackson really wanted to sign Rose. He’s definitely all in on the win now thing. I have no idea why. Seems as if there were a long term plan in play before this it’s been tossed out the window. And I suspect a healthy Rose probably gets a fresh contract from Jackson next summer.

    263. If Jackson trades a healthy “resurgent” Rose with Carmelo for Westbrook and a 1st rounder, I will stand up out of this chair in my mom’s basement and applaud.

      If Jackson gets to the end of Rose’s expiring year and offers him a multiyear contract, I will burn this website to the ground.

    264. So I’ll ask, what the hell is Phil Jackson trying to do?

      As I’ve written, Phil is clearly pursuing a hedge strategy based on risk assessment. Few of his moves are win-now; most are calculated gambles to modestly move the team forward without sacrificing flexibility and limiting downside. If Rose doesn’t work out, he’s gone at the end of the year. If (when) Afflalo doesn’t work out, he’s gone at the end of the year. The only gamble with serious downside was Porzingis, who was not a consensus pick over half a dozen other guys.

      I’m not saying this is the best possible strategy, and generally we have experienced the downside of his modest hedged bets (again, except Porzingis), but it is a coherent strategy.

      Phil isn’t doing a good job because his predecessors sucked. He’s just doing a better job than them. I’d give him something like a C so far on his tenure. It’s two steps forward 1.5 steps back.

      Exactly, though I’d argue it’s more like 2 steps forward, 1 step back. This would be the first year we could see if that difference could be meaningful.

    265. Now we’re gonna have to work to afford a max contract next year when the better FAs become available.

      Not really.

    266. noah’s health is the most crucial… and if he can play decent basketball then the next 4 yrs should be ok

      I agree. This was Phil’s only real gamble this off season. I wanted a 1+1, but obviously in this crazy market there wasn’t a chance in hell of that.

    267. If Jackson trades a healthy “resurgent” Rose with Carmelo for Westbrook and a 1st rounder, I will stand up out of this chair in my mom’s basement and applaud.

      Your mom moved with you to Portland?

    268. @287

      bruh you’ve been here for like, 5 minutes

    269. A lot of people have explored usage and efficiency. And will continue to. I have read and participated in numerous threads at APBRmetrics, Wages of Wins, here, and elsewhere on the topic. The statistical conclusions to be drawn are pretty murky once you move away from extreme scenarios. It’s not simple.

      Well, it is bound to be murky:

      1) It does not have to be a linear relationship. Not to mention that you can increase usage in different ways, each one with different impact in your efficiency.
      2) Even if it was approximately linear, each player would have his own skill curve. A player only gives you very few data points (and usually close together, because they do not change roles much), but if you take many of them, you cannot ‘adjust to a single line’.
      3) Coaches are in control of the usage and will try to make their players play to their best. Thus eliminating the extreme cases.

      So it is hard to draw statistical conclusions. There are some reasonable assumptions you can take, however. For example, assisted baskets are much higher efficiency than unassisted ones., but you can only do so much to get them. A good player would be in a position to be assisted, set good picks, or read defenses well; but if you want to shoot even more, you will have to do it on your own. On the other hand, midrange jumpers with a defender close may be one of the worse shots of basketball, but you can get it whenever you want, so you can increase your usage as much as you want on those.

      If you have high efficiency/low usage players, but whose marginal efficiency on shots beyond their usual usage is really bad, maybe it is not bad to have a low efficiency/high usage guy that can shoot at will. If you have a good coach that knows his players, or really complimentary players, perhaps you do not need this high usage players, but teams are usually better with them.

    270. What I have said is not very testable in a scientific way. It would be nice to field different teams and try experimenting with them. It would still be a murky thing, but it would be fun. It is a shame that the All-Star game is a joke.

    271. It makes perfect sense that Jackson got Rose as a means to get Noah. Noah fits everything Phil talks about: His passing makes him a strong triangle fit. He’s been a top player on many winning teams (leadership! culture!). The trade in Jackson’s mind was Grant + Lopez for Noah and saving the Bulls $13m in cap room (Rose’s salary less Calderon’s).

      Still nuts IMO when you could have signed better long term players for that money (Biyombo is almost guaranteed to be better over the next 4 years than Noah and will probably be better this year).

      You can look at the other ridiculous move Phil made through the same lens and see a little sense to it. Calderon was the guy who was gonna run the triangle well because he’s a smart PG and his lack of penetration was less of an issues in the triangle.

      It seems like when it comes to these triangle players, Phil stops thinking like a GM and instead thinks more like a coach. He’s thinking, “How much will these players help me accomplish my gameplan?” rather than “What is this player’s value on the open market and what is the value of what I have to give up to get him?”

    272. Ezeli 7.5 a year.
      Crabbe (offer sheet) at a starting salary of 17 a year.

      or

      Biyombo at starting salary of 17 a year.
      Tyler Johnson (offer sheet) at a starting salary of 14 a year.

      vs.

      What happened in reality – Noah plus Lee plus Jennings.

      I’d take one of the first 2 options against the 3rd any day of the week.

    273. It seems like when it comes to these triangle players, Phil stops thinking like a GM and instead thinks more like a coach.

      I hadn’t thought of it this way, makes a lot of sense out of otherwise confusing decisions.

    274. @292 Ingmarrr

      Ezeli is like a reverse Jerome James situation. It’s signing him in spite of a very, very unimpressive playoff campaign. The Warriors lost Game 7 in huge part because of his 4Q performance. I think Kerr subbed him on and CLE immediately scored 6 points on 3 possessions.

      @291 latke @294 Grocer

      Yeah, this seems to put into perspective how Phil doesn’t work like most GMs. It’s frustrating how he doesn’t seem to fight over every last asset in trade negotiations. It would explain how he continues the Knick GM tradition of bargaining against himself. Because he’s that confident he’ll adapt even if his initial circumstances aren’t the most favorable.

      In a coach, that adaptability is awesome. Like Pop or Rick Carlisle. But maybe we want our GMs to be a different sort of cerebral.

    275. The challenge for Phil is having the same impact on his team’s culture as a GM as he did as a coach. He and Pop are the 2 coaches that bucked the “coach has no impact on efficiency” trend. So far as GM not so much. But that is what optimists are essentially hanging their hopes on.

    276. If Jackson gets to the end of Rose’s expiring year and offers him a multiyear contract, I will burn this website to the ground.

      HEY!!!

    277. Ingmarrr
      July 8, 2016 at 4:24 am
      Ezeli 7.5 a year.
      Crabbe (offer sheet) at a starting salary of 17 a year.

      or

      Biyombo at starting salary of 17 a year.
      Tyler Johnson (offer sheet) at a starting salary of 14 a year.

      vs.

      What happened in reality – Noah plus Lee plus Jennings.

      I’d take one of the first 2 options against the 3rd any day of the week.

      Because option 3 is the Knicks right? Smfh

    278. HEY!!!

      Mike, I started posting here in 2008 as a form of basketball-related therapy. I need this cycle of pain to end at some point.

    279. lol

      Is Jowles a reverse Thon Maker? Why hasn’t he produced his longform birth certificate?

      #Jowlespiracy

    Comments are closed.