Knicks Morning News (2016.07.08)

  • [New York Times] Kevin Durant, Whether Hero or Villain, Defends His Move to the Warriors (Fri, 08 Jul 2016 05:20:05 GMT)

    The newly minted Golden State Warrior said he was not seeking an easier path to a championship by leaving the Thunder. “Hopefully everybody understands,” he said.

  • [New York Times] The UConn Legend Breanna Stewart Adjusts to Life in the W.N.B.A. (Fri, 08 Jul 2016 09:00:26 GMT)

    Stewart, a four-time national champion, is learning to deal with losing and the pressure of high expectations in a league that can use a breakout star.

  • [New York Times] Nine Questions: Dwyane Wade’s Game Plan Includes Fashion Design (Fri, 08 Jul 2016 03:31:26 GMT)

    The 12-time N.B.A. All-Star is slowly building a label of his own.

  • [New York Times] Knicks Drawing on Top Spanish League to Stock Bench (Fri, 08 Jul 2016 05:39:08 GMT)

    Center Guillermo Hernangomez and forward Mindaugas Kuzminskas, veterans of the league where Kristaps Porzingis played, both reached deals to join him in New York.

  • [New York Times] Splash! Kevin Durant Finalizes Two-Year Deal With Warriors (Fri, 08 Jul 2016 01:45:33 GMT)

    Kevin Durant wanted to look MVP Stephen Curry in the eye, meet Klay Thompson face to face, and find out for himself whether they truly wanted him as a teammate.

  • [New York Times] The Latest: Lakers Announce Signing Deng, Zubac, Clarkson (Fri, 08 Jul 2016 01:09:39 GMT)

    The Latest on the NBA (all times Eastern):

  • 129 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2016.07.08)”

    If Jackson trades a healthy “resurgent” Rose with Carmelo for Westbrook and a 1st rounder, I will stand up out of this chair in my mom’s basement and applaud.

    If Jackson gets to the end of Rose’s expiring year and offers him a multiyear contract, I will burn this website to the ground.

    I think (and you do too) that there is zero chance of the first scenario. I guess you can continue lounging in your chair.

    If Rose is healthy this year (ie. 70+ games, 2100+ minutes) and plays reasonably well (say per 36 stats of 20/3/7 on average efficiency (54% was league average this past year), then I think there’s probably a 50%+ chance of the latter. And I’d agree with you that that would be a mistake (I probably would try not to burn this website down though).

    You left out other possibilities though.

    Specifically – what if the team is pretty good and we make it to the second round, leading to actual enjoyment of basketball for a season for Knicks fans?

    What if Rose isn’t healthy all year (since that’s what everyone assumes based on their orthopedist knowledge – I KID I KID), but the team is still pretty good. Rose gets to go find his next contract elsewhere, and we sign Westbrook or Point God in free agency?

    These are all distinct possibilities too.

    FWIW – I like Noah as a player and as a fit on this team, but think the 4 year contract is a really bad idea. 1+1 would have been ideal (team option) but in this market I guess that was not going to happen. Phil is just not a good negotiator. I think if you told Noah it’s 3 years or go play for Washington or some such team, he would still have come.

    I do like Biyombo (seriously, his numbers look like Rodman-lite) and think that giving him a 4 year contract would’ve been better.

    Re: Ezeli’s contract — there are whispers out there that his knee is much worse than reported. Maybe that’s why he got such a small deal. But it’s definitely a buyer’s market out there now.

    But still – for all the doom and gloom here – just remember that even if Noah isn’t great in years 3-4, it’s highly possible he’s only going to be asked to play 15-20 min/game as KP takes over. And even when this whole remodel of the team fully runs its course after the 2019-20 season, KP will only be 25 and (barring trades of course), we will have made 9 draft picks during that time (4 first, 5 second).

    And that’s why this time is at least a little different from the previous times. In previous trades / win-now moves, we’ve not only traded for arguably “not-good” players, we’ve also traded away the future. Agree with these moves or not, it’s just pure fact that this time, we have a young game changer in KP who, health and sanity permitting, will be a Knick the rest of his career. And we have all our draft picks (+1 second round pick).

    Philly is a dumpster fire in terms of the present, but wow do they have draft assets moving forward. Aside from their 400 2nd round picks, they have the Lakers 1st round pick next year (top 1-3 protected in 2017, unprotected 2018), swap rights to the 2017 Sacramento pick, and an unprotected Sac pick in 2019.
    Just unreal.

    I highly doubt Westbrook would consider extending/re-signing there, but Philly could easily offer a really amazing package while still retaining a bunch of assets.

    Phil is just not a good negotiator. I think if you told Noah it’s 3 years or go play for Washington or some such team, he would still have come.

    I think that’s just a tiny bit unfair, Frank. I think he wanted 4 years and that was the key to any deal. Him and Lee probably don’t hurt our leverage going forward, especially with a rising cap, and we can reasonably expect upgraded production over the course of the deals. Also WAS is pretty good and I’m sure would have been a reasonable choice for him. Phil is a good negotiator in that he got a player he wanted.

    I like all the moves this off season except Rose. I’m just frightened that the fancy dribbling will belie a crucial lack of efficiency. Still I’ll be rooting like crazy for him now. Sometimes you need a big statistical anomaly. It happens on all winning teams. Maybe if all his parts are oiled and in working order we’ll get some elite play. As to “Priceline negotiator” Phil, I don’t think he’ll be taken in by faux all star hero ball and if the record is again mediocre he won’t be handing out extensions.

    I think we’re going to keep Derrick Rose on a 3 year, $60M deal and try to sign JJ Reddick or probably Lance Stephenson if he doesn’t get a long term deal this summer. Our 2018 team will probably look like this:

    PG: Rose, 2017 1st round pick
    SG: Lee, Stephenson, Baker
    SF: Melo, Thomas, Mindy
    PF: KP, Hernangomez
    C: Noah, O’Quinn

    I think that’s just a tiny bit unfair, Frank. I think he wanted 4 years and that was the key to any deal.

    Maybe, maybe not. I think he really did want to come to NYC. At the very least there could have been non guarantees for injury (similar to what PHX was proposing to Amare back in 2010).

    Whatever, I think overall it’s not catastrophic. It’s not a $26MM AAV contract — it’ll be ~17% or less of the cap by the end of it, which equates to ~$12MM AAV in 2015-16 cap dollars.

    As much as I have hope for Derrick Rose, any theoretical multi-year contract has to come with injury protection. I’d much rather have Jrue Holiday at 70% of the price (even with his injury history!) than Rose without injury protection. (I know some/most of you would rather have Holiday period)

    “Phil is just not a good negotiator.” “Phil is a good negotiator”
    I don’t think that any of us is in a position to know whether he is a good negotiator or a bad one, since none of us knows what goes on behind closed doors. Part of what I do for a living is negotiate pretty large contracts, and there are almost always things in the final deal that someone could pick out and say, “Why in the world did he agree to THAT?” (Which, by the way, is one reason that I am glad that I don’t have millions of people scrutinizing everything I do in life.) In each such case, it is because I got something in return that was as important or more important to me. I have absolutely no idea what Noah was asking for or what he would have agreed to, and neither does anyone else on this site. I know that many people will respond that we know that Phil is a bad negotiator because he consistently undervalues our assets — to which I respond that people on this site consistently overvalue our assets (because that is what fans ALWAYS do). Just check out other team’s fan blogs. Chicago fans were outraged at how the Knicks ripped off the Bulls in the Rose trade. Philly fans were absolutely convinced that the Sixers should have traded Okafor and a second round pick in this year’s draft for Porzingis. Celtics fans were convinced that the Nets pick should have netted them a young all-star. Suns fans wanted to trade a mid-2nd round pick in this year’s draft for Willy Hernangomez, etc., etc.

    I know Paul is old, but he’s the guy I’d want next summer. His game seems impervious to the ravages of time and I have zero doubt Melo would gladly take a backseat to his banana boat buddy.

    In the event we suck and no star PG wants to come here there are a number of highly intriguing PG prospects projected to be in the draft next year. Cool with either scenario.

    Thinking about drop in production as players age — a lot of the data about age-related decline is pretty old, with studies suggesting peak is anywhere from mid- to late-20s. Berri’s famous study went from the late 70s to 2008, and even the NBAminer one starts its analysis in the late 90s — but there have been wholesale changes in how players take care of themselves in the last 10 years in a lot of ways, including but not limited to nutrition, training regimens, and rest.

    Maybe if I have time later I’ll take a look at players who went through their age 32-36 seasons after 2010, and try and see if there is obvious decline. Not sure I have the personal statistical chops to really conclude much. but it’s an interesting question, especially as we are banking on 3 dudes (Melo/Lee/Noah) to maintain their statistical production through age 34-35.

    Ugh. Durant well on his way to becoming as unlikeable (to me) as the rest of the Warriors. From SI regarding his shoes:

    Durant and Nike began selling the shoe at an affordable $88, and actually dropped the price down to $85 for the KD2 and KD3 releases. Then, the price began to climb, all the way to $180 for the KD8.

    When asked about this in a recent press conference, Durant was pretty blunt.

    “As humbly as I can say it, I’m not a $88 player,” Durant said. “I’m an elite player in the league. I wanted everything to be affordable, but I knew we had to sacrifice some stuff. I just wanted the fans of the brand and of the shoe to just stay patient with me. And stay patient with who I am as a player, and the level I was trying to go to.”

    sounds like someone was not prepped by PR for that question.

    Kevin – the proper answer is NOT “I want everything to be affordable but I knew we had to sacrifice the fans who can’t afford $150 shoes”.

    I don’t know what the right answer is, since i think paying $150 (or even $88) for shoes is totally outrageous, but his answer is definitely not the right one.

    I don’t know what the right answer is

    “I let my agent handle the numbers and business side, I’m just here to play ball.”

    Something along those lines.

    Maybe if I have time later I’ll take a look at players who went through their age 32-36 seasons after 2010, and try and see if there is obvious decline.

    Yeah, I think for guys without significant injury history seem like safe bets with the improvements in medical technology and standards to play for longer in their careers. The worry with Noah is that even that won’t prevent him from falling off a cliff. I still think he has enough in the tank to be worth that contract for the first 2 years, it’s the 3rd and 4th seasons of the contract that are concerning.

    What do you guys think Miami will end up doing with Johnson? I read that since no one is able to literally sign a contract yet, Miami could just effectively match the offer from New Jersey, only without the offer being actually made. In other words, just tell Brooklyn “We would match if you signed the deal, so don’t bother signing it” and then sign Johnson to the same basic contract terms, only without the poison pill parts of the deal. I don’t know if that’s actually true or not, though.

    It’s hard for me to imagine a poison pill provision that isn’t some sort of benefit to the player. So if Miami wanted to hire him without the poison pill provisions that are in an offer he has in hand, I see no reason for him to agree.

    @BC

    I thought Johnson signed the offer sheet right after midnight on the 7th?

    The most helpful thing for older players is that the NBA doesn’t seem to be good about testing for PEDs.

    The most helpful thing for older players is that the NBA doesn’t seem to be good about testing for PEDs.

    Yeah. The newest bull has some of the strongest rumors around that

    I think he really did want to come to NYC. At the very least there could have been non guarantees for injury (similar to what PHX was proposing to Amare back in 2010).

    The same kind of non-guarantees that led Amar’e to spurn Phoenix for a team that wasn’t so stingy? Seems a little counterproductive…

    Brooklyn signed Allen Crabbe to a 4 year $19m AAV offer sheet?

    First of all, wow, I’m glad that wasn’t us. Second, I guess this means Miami will match the poison pill offer to Tyler Johnson now that Wade is gone?

    The most helpful thing for older players is that the NBA doesn’t seem to be good about testing for PEDs.

    lololol. that didn’t even cross my mind somehow.

    yes, well, i guess that would work out well for our team.

    I thought Johnson signed the offer sheet right after midnight on the 7th?

    Thanks! I thought the article sounded too good to be true for Miami.

    I don’t think that any of us is in a position to know whether he is a good negotiator or a bad one, since none of us knows what goes on behind closed doors.

    Yeah, same here. You never really know. Especially because there are always other voices in the conversation, and there’s always a political element, even if you have the ultimate say.

    Still, I think the point from the previous thread that he GMs like a coach is reasonable. Real dealmakers fight for every last inch, and Phil is not that guy. Which is a mark against him as a GM, if not a human being.

    I highly doubt Westbrook would consider extending/re-signing there, but Philly could easily offer a really amazing package while still retaining a bunch of assets.

    That’s the thing: most of us see Philly in an enviable position for the future, but players likely do not. For instance, our own Zinger, who didn’t do a pre-draft workout with them. Hinkie was on the cusp of success, but without some manifestation of that success, no free agents are eager to sign there.

    There have been wholesale changes in how players take care of themselves in the last 10 years in a lot of ways, including but not limited to nutrition, training regimens, and rest…

    Frank– first off, I have to ask, how do you manage the first few posts of every single thread? Do you have a premium membership or something? I’ve been meaning to ask for weeks.

    Secondly– it seems to me that in the last 10 years players have been getting more injured, especially the “star” players. Maybe it’s an eye-test thing, and because a few famous players go down, it seems like there’s a trend. But it really feels like the style of play of the current NBA, which involves guards crashing into te paint to draw contact from big men, a la Derrick Rose, Jeremy Lin, James Harden, Dwayne Wade, etc, breeds injury, and this a quicker decline.

    That is a priori, though, and I’d actually be interested to see what you find. (I expect to see the findings of your research presented in the first post of tomorrow’s Knicks Morning News:)

    That’s the thing: most of us see Philly in an enviable position for the future, but players likely do not.

    Though if Ben Simmons keeps making the kinds of passes he did last night, that perception could change rapidly. That’s part of why the Colangelos were brought in to replace Hinkie: to create emotional separation from The Process now that the organization wants to start building rather than tearing down.

    Some Italian team is trying to steal our Ron Baker away from us in his infancy. Phil will never let it happen, though. He’s too smart.

    Hinkie was on the cusp of success, but without some manifestation of that success, no free agents are eager to sign there.

    With Simmons, Noel, and Westbrook, though, there’d be success, and players will suddenly be amenable to going there. (That was the Hinkie plan. It wasn’t just to suck forever and ever. It was to get assets and turn them into success over a reasonable period of time).

    Frank– first off, I have to ask, how do you manage the first few posts of every single thread? Do you have a premium membership or something? I’ve been meaning to ask for weeks.

    lololol. no, I just get up really early. Looks like the new thread auto-starts around 7am which is sort of when I sit down and have a minute to log into Knickerblogger…

    hopefully i have time to look into this. may be a while.

    if there’s one thing that i hope is perfectly clear to everyone is that phil is really really horrible at filling out the end of the roster….

    plumlee and sasha… are you kidding me…

    Press conference for new signees going on right now.

    Ian Begley ?@IanBegley 5m5 minutes ago
    Phil Jackson & Steve Mills said the acquisition of Derrick Rose helped inform the Knicks’ approach in free agency: going after vets

    Sigh

    I’m always hopeful that things will work out, but seeing the Nets sign these young guys like Crabbe and Tyler Johnson to offer sheets makes me jealous, even if they don’t get them. It would be nice, for once, to root for a team that has exciting young prospects, rather than just Kristaps and a bunch of guys who’s best years are behind them. Don’t get me wrong I love Kristaps, he’s maybe my second favorite player in the NBA behind Westbrook. I realize that Phil has been hamstrung by only having one first round pick, but it sucks that we only have one young guy to get excited about.

    I will say, however, that the one thing the FO has done unquestionably well is drafting KP and putting him in a position to succeed. It’s definitely good in both the long and the short term to pair him with a center who can take some of the banging inside off of him. I’m also encouraged by the hiring of Hornacek, who has said really encouraging things w/r/t his development (using him in high screen and rolls, pushing the pace, etc.). If they can develop one young guy, you’d think they could develop more, but they didn’t seem interested in developing Grant and there hasn’t really been anyone else on the roster worth even trying to develop.

    Here’s my question: what is the best case scenario for this team, completing bombing out and getting a high lotto pick or putting together a competitive but not great team and adding another piece or two next year? I’m specifically curious what those who’ve hated the moves this offseason think.

    I’m always hopeful that things will work out, but seeing the Nets sign these young guys like Crabbe and Tyler Johnson to offer sheets makes me jealous, even if they don’t get them.

    I’d say it’s a gigantic risk to pay Crabbe $19MM AAV and Johnson $12.5MM AAV. Hopefully for the Nets it works out for them, but those contracts could look pretty bad if those guys don’t step up.

    IMHO the best way to root for young guys is to draft them or sign them as UDFAs. So the young guys we can root for this year are KP (still only 21), Willie/Billy, and I guess maybe Ron Baker or Chasson Randle if they make the team.

    Seems likely the only <23yo player that will make any sort of difference on this team is KP.

    we all knew that Sasha was coming back.
    Ron Baker looks like a D-Leaguer

    I’m not sure how many roster spots are open, but if 4 are left- I think Phil should try to fill them with David Lee (we’re gonna need him because Willy and Kuzminskas may not be ready to contribute like the team may need them to- considering OQ’s performance last season), Ron Baker, Chasson Randle, and Thanasis. Baker and Randle started slow in SL, but they are looking much better. I like them.

    I would happily take one Kristaps Porzingis over a dozen Allen Crabbes, particularly if we’d have to pay the former $19 million/year!!

    Crabbe will have to become a much better player than he has been so far to justify that salary… seems like a wild and desperate home run swing on Brooklyn’s part. Melo at $25 mil or Crabbe at $19m? I don’t have to think very long about that one. Very glad we’re not the team that offered that contract.

    It’s not Crabbe and Johnson specifically that I’m talking about, it’s the interest in players who’s best years are still to come, instead of players who have already peaked or in best case scenarios will sustain their former production.

    This press conference is so depressing from a process standpoint. If anyone had doubts, it makes clear that:

    – The trade for Rose was about getting a “good” player

    Chris Herring ?@HerringWSJ 11m11 minutes ago
    Phil, on losing Lopez: “It was like getting a tooth pulled.” Said he loved his play, but team had to give up something to get something good

    – The Rose trade informed the rest of the offseason:

    Chris Herring ?@HerringWSJ 31m31 minutes ago
    Knicks GM Steve Mills: When we made the Rose trade, it set us on a clearer path to try and win now. Says it made team more appealing to FAs

    – They rushed into abandoning “rebuilding” because Carmelo is getting old:

    Phil said he went to Melo after the season — 3rd straight w/ no playoffs — and asked, “Are we moving quick enough for you?”

    I mean, how do you defend that?

    Phil is just like every other GM the Knicks have had except he only traded one first round pick for an aging overrated star and one first rounder (Shumpert, who still had value) in order to get rid of an expiring contract in JR Smith

    So that’s two first rounders for nothing, rather than however many every other GM has traded.

    You know what’s funny in a bizzaro world kinda way? Joakim Noah will have big shoes to fill considering the seasons he and Lopez had last season. Granted, if healthy, Noah should fill those shoes easily. But still…kinda funny

    So the nets want to pay a 24 yr old $6.5m more than the knicks paid 30 yr old Courtney Lee. Wow, the horror.

    Basically, the Knicks story goes like this:

    – Team is bad;
    – Purports to rebuild;
    – Reverses rebuilding course and trades for overrated/declining players;
    – Surrounds said player with veterans;
    – Team is bad;
    – Purports to rebuild;
    – Reverses rebuildign course and trades for overrated/declining players.

    Press conference for new signees going on right now.

    Ian Begley ?@IanBegley 5m5 minutes ago
    Phil Jackson & Steve Mills said the acquisition of Derrick Rose helped inform the Knicks’ approach in free agency: going after vets

    Sigh

    Huh. But they presumably asked for Rose and came up with the idea to get him, surely they already had the going after vets strategy as well beforehand. It’s not as if the Rose trade was the meteor that struck the Earth and the front office was the surviving mammals. They really need to stop giving press conferences.

    Phil is just like every other GM the Knicks have had except he only traded one first round pick for an aging overrated star and one first rounder (Shumpert, who still had value) in order to get rid of an expiring contract in JR Smith

    So that’s two first rounders for nothing, rather than however many every other GM has traded.

    We got Lance and a 2nd round pick for Iman “10m/yr” Shumpert.

    Grant’s inclusion in the deal wasn’t great, but they did grab Holiday and a 2nd round pick from it also. Also he got Grant with a first round pick he acquired by trading Tim Hardaway Jr., who most here were ready to move for a late 2nd rounder if that.

    Keep drawing shitty parallels though.

    Phil is just like every other GM the Knicks have had except he only traded one first round pick for an aging overrated star and one first rounder (Shumpert, who still had value) in order to get rid of an expiring contract in JR Smith

    I guess you could call Grant a first rounder, but Shumpert…are you kidding me? Lots of teams trade away guys that were picked in the first round but didn’t turn out to be any good, that’s not the same as trading 1st rounders. We’re talking about a guy with career average of .489 TS, .462 eFG, .061 WS/48, a guy who’s only value is his ability to play defense but who is only a top-70 player according to DRtg/100 possessions, and a guy who was mired in the midst of his worst overall season at the time we traded him on top of the fact that he was about to get a steep pay-raise.

    One of the things Phil has specifically done well is hang onto draft picks. I

    Shumpert is a scrub when he’s not on a rookie-scale deal. Jackson has been terrible, but I wouldn’t knock him on that trade.

    Forgot about the 2nd rounder we got, but you can’t really say that Lance Thomas was a good return on a young player who still had (only) perceived value around the league. Especially because Lance Thomas was terrible before he came to the Knicks. Before Lance over performed, you were essentially trading Shumpert for a vet min contract. Not a particularly distinguished trade.

    Justin Holiday is a vet min guy who you could just as easily pick off the waiver wire. He’s not an asset. We traded a first round pick for a future second. Both trades were bad because Jackson has terrible player evaluation skills.

    This country is such a complete fuckin’ mess right now that I’m too depressed to focus on basketball.

    Especially because Lance Thomas was terrible before he came to the Knicks. Before Lance over performed, you were essentially trading Shumpert for a vet min contract.

    It feels like you are going out of your way to critique this move to fit into a narrative of Jackson having no idea how to value players. First it was that he gave away a first round pick in Shumpert and now it’s that had more value than we acquired for him. There’s no way to say whether or not Lance was a throw in, or whether or not the FO say qualities in him they liked and thought they could develop him. Perhaps further evidence of their confidence in Thomas was the decision to offer an above-minimum contract last summer, despite not needing to. They did in fact develop him into a valuable role player.

    Jackson has made some awful trades, the Chandler move in particular, but I don’t think the JR-Shumpert trade was one of them. Shumpert has turned out to be a below-average player on a meh contract. JR has had a resurgence in Cleveland but it was pretty clear by the time we traded him that it wasn’t going to work out for him here. Trading two guys with no value to our team for one guy with decent value is not a bad trade. It’s not some heist or anything, but it’s not bad.

    @51 that’s why I am trying to focus a lil on my beloved Knicks. It helps a little

    Frank: I’d say it’s a gigantic risk to pay Crabbe $19MM AAV and Johnson $12.5MM AAV. Hopefully for the Nets it works out for them, but those contracts could look pretty bad if those guys don’t step up.

    Yeah, it IS a risk, but when you’re a bad team, the drawback of having salary tied up for 3-4 years isn’t that much of a drawback. These deals have the potential to actually pay off with the players becoming legitimately underpaid at those salaries. Compare that to typical FA signings where you sign a guy who you can pretty reliably predict will produce 10%+ less per dollar you spend than the average NBA player, and it’s the clear best option for a team looking to substantively improve.

    Courtney Lee has an interview WS/48 of 0.10. Noah is a poet laureate. Phil and Steve are the Magic Johnson Twitter feeds of GM press conferences.

    This country is such a complete fuckin’ mess right now that I’m too depressed to focus on basketball.

    I can dig it. My eldest son starts college in NV on monday, and I had to text him this morning just to tell him I love him and to be careful. First time in my life I’ve ever been afraid of something. Thank God for the distraction that is the seemingly annual dysfunction of our Knicks lol

    Yeah, I try to use this place as an escape from the stress and anxiety from the world at large. I think I picked the wrong team for that, though. Still helps a little, even if it’s kind of just pretending to think that anywhere is a kind of island abstracted away from this violence going on.

    I love Melo off the court–by all accounts he’s a really good guy, interested in charity and political issues, etc. I’m glad to have him on the team for non basketball reasons even if his contract is, *ahem*, suboptimal. Would I sign him? Probably not. But Im not unhappy with him being here.

    Melo and Noah need to spend some time getting diet tips from the nutritionist D Wade and LBJ use in Miami

    Also, I’ll be like 45 minutes from Temecula for the next couple days if anything has anything to say to me about Langston Galloway

    Wait, are we really calling dumping Shumpert and Jerian Grant “trading first round picks?”

    WTF? Once a draft pick turns into a player and that player is in the NBA and playing like garbage, they’re not a “first round pick,” they’re just a depreciating asset. Unless you have evidence we could have traded Shumpert or Grant straight up for a first, (which I seriously doubt, particularly in the case of Grant) that’s just wildly disingenuous.

    Holy crap…Anthony Randolph is only 26?? Feels like forever ago when he was a Knick. Dissapointing..I hoped he could become a Camby type with a more diverse offensive game. Instead, his game was just offensive.

    Jackson has made some awful trades, the Chandler move in particular, but I don’t think the JR-Shumpert trade was one of them. Shumpert has turned out to be a below-average player on a meh contract… [a guy]with no value to our team… is not a bad trade.

    But Shumpert had value. OKC offered their 2014 first round pick for him, but we turned them down because it wasnt deemed enough of a return at the time.

    http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/2/24/5444076/iman-shumpert-trade-knicks-clippers-thunder

    Jackson has made some awful trades, the Chandler move in particular, but I don’t think the JR-Shumpert trade was one of them.

    I hate that trade far more than the trade sending Chandler away or the trade for Rose.
    We got squat back (yay for Lance Thomas). A day after that trade the Cavs sent a 1st round pick out for Mozgov. #%@&*#!!!!!

    This country is such a complete fuckin’ mess right now that I’m too depressed to focus on basketball.

    It’s been a really bad week. As others do, I come here to escape the regular world. I would rather argue with you guys about PJ and Melo than talk politics with anyone.

    One reason the Knicks’ offense stunk so bad last year was that they sucked at converting baskets from 0-3 feet. The league average FG% on these shots was .624, and the Knicks ranked 28th in this category at a woeful .585.

    Their best finishers near the rim last year were:
    1. Calderon .644
    2. Williams .633
    3. O’Quinn .630
    4. Lopez .619
    5. Afflalo .609
    6. Galloway .580

    Notice anything about that group? Five of the six of them are gone, replaced by:
    Noah .439
    Rose .510
    Lee .607 (yay)
    Jennings .574

    It’s incredible that endless discussion surrounds players like Grant, Galloway, etc. when the only thing that matters in determining whether we win a championship in the years ahead is KP’s development.

    If he becomes a top 3, MVP-caliber player, we’ll be in the very small group of teams in contention. Plus, great players will want to play with him. For example, if he makes a big leap this year, the Knicks’ 2017-18 roster begins with Westbrook, KP, Melo, Noah etc. Now that team is a real contender. (And re: Noah, you can be sure that Phil wanted Noah to help develop KP; if he helps make KP better, the acquisition is priceless.)

    To say “Phil is awful at identifying talent” when he drafted KP–thus giving us the first chance to become elite since Ewing–is incredibly shortsighted. Not to mention the fact that the guy has been intimately involved in various levels of professional basketball for decades. Shaping the roster for the Albany Patroons in the eighties required some level of identifying talent, as did coaching the Bulls and Lakers to unprecedented heights. It’s garbage to make a blanket statement like “Phil has no idea about talent”.

    But wait– how did “healthy” Noah do the year before on shots from 0-3 feet?

    .515

    Oh.

    we’ve made one good trade and one good signing… and that was undone by the rose trade….

    as much as i hated the noah signing… he is def built in the mold of all the old knicks…. i sure hope he works out…

    The Knicks’ four major acquisitions (Rose, Noah, Lee, Jennings) had a combined 13 dunks last season.

    knickterp: It’s incredible that endless discussion surrounds players like Grant, Galloway, etc. when the only thing that matters in determining whether we win a championship in the years ahead is KP’s development.

    How’s that working out for New Orleans and Anthony Davis? Go look at how the Rockets got James Harden if you want to see why I think a lot of people get upset about these little choices. You can turn water into wine if you respect the value of every asset you have. We just traded Grant, Lopez and about $13m in cap space for players who are quite unlikely to have any trade value at all. That’s moving backwards.

    @Donnie Walsh, the article you linked is dated February 24, 2014 but Phil didn’t take over as team president until March 17. So first off, I wouldn’t put a decision made by past management on him. Second, Shumpert’s trade value at the time was a late first round pick, what ended up being #29 overall in the 2014 draft. Third, the very same article indicates that the Clippers were unwilling to trade for Shumpert because of concerns about his MCL.

    So I guess you’re right, Shumpert had value, but it was apparently equal to an end of the first round pick. I think we can agree that there is not much difference between a late first and early second round pick. You can buy an early second rounder for $3M, which doesn’t say a whole lot about Shumpert’s value.

    Scratching off a slightly more risky but winning lottery ticket !=good talent evaluation

    The very fact that he thought Derrick Rose was worth betting the farm on necessitates that he’s a moron who doesn’t look past raw box score stats and eye test when evaluating players

    If he becomes a top 3, MVP-caliber player, we’ll be in the very small group of teams in contention. Plus, great players will want to play with him.

    That’s my point exactly about why, when the Rose trade went down I was upset, but now I understand what PJ was doing. We’re not hearing about guys like Durant wanting to go to places like New Orleans or Toronto, are we? If KP becomes that kind of player, we’re gold. I hope that next year we get a terrific guard in the draft. That’s how we rebuild.

    The very fact that he thought Derrick Rose was worth betting the farm on necessitates that he’s a moron who doesn’t look past raw box score stats and eye test when evaluating players

    At the risk of sounding like reub and other “optimists” — you can say a lot about Phil Jackson but it’s hard to call him a moron when it comes to basketball.

    IMHO – you can say “it looks like a bad risk” or “I don’t agree with his assessment” or “IMHO I don’t think he can return to his previous level of play”, but calling Phil Jackson a “moron” when talking about basketball doesn’t exactly make HIM look like the “moron”, if you know what i mean. IMHO of course.

    In the spirit of moderation in all things, on today of all days — reasonable people can disagree about things without one side being termed a moron or an idiot.

    But wait– how did “healthy” Noah do the year before on shots from 0-3 feet?

    .515

    Oh.

    He actually was struggling with recovering from a knee injury that year (which is now supposedly fully healthy if you believe people who report such things), but sure, whatever fits your narrative. The last healthy season he had (yes, it was 13-14 which was a bit of time ago), he shot .581.

    The very fact that he thought Derrick Rose was worth betting the farm on necessitates that he’s a moron who doesn’t look past raw box score stats and eye test when evaluating players

    This is absurd. Looking at the trade in terms of pure statistics, Rose and Grant were pretty equivalent in terms of efficiency and assists/36 and rebounds/36, while Rose was better in terms of points/36 (due to his much higher usage). Factor in that both players have some plausible room for improvement, Grant is a 23 year old while Rose is still only 27 and coming off his first knee-injury free season in years, and you could feasibly call the Rose-Grant swap a wash at PG. Supposing that Rose-Grant are of equivalent value, you essentially gave away Lopez and Calderon for free. Lopez is a good player, Calderon is pretty useless.

    So in the absolute most negative way of looking at the trade, you gave away a good center without hurting your long term flexibility. How is that betting the farm?

    the article you linked is dated February 24, 2014 but Phil didn’t take over as team president until March 17. So first off, I wouldn’t put a decision made by past management on him.

    The point isn’t that Jackson blew it by not trading Shumpert to OKC for the #29 pick in 2014. The point is that Shumpert had 1st round value. That’s not “no value”.

    The last healthy season he had (yes, it was 13-14 which was a bit of time ago), he shot .581.

    Which unfortunately still sucks for a center.

    We just traded Grant, Lopez and about $13m in cap space for players who are quite unlikely to have any trade value at all.

    I’m not sure how the math works there. Are you talking about cap space for next summer? Or for this year?

    I can say for sure that Courtney Lee will have trade value at his salary, which was less than he was offered elsewhere.

    Noah, if he plays as expected, will have plenty of trade value. If he doesn’t play as the Knicks expect, well, any player that doesn’t play up to expectation won’t have trade value, especially if he doesn’t come super cheap.

    In terms of the loss of $13MM in cap space for summer of 2017, I’m not sure how that really computes.

    Courtney Lee is a completely different transaction — the Knicks were going to sign a wing regardless of what happened with the Rose trade. So removing him from the math equation–

    Outgoing contracts:
    Lopez is due $14MM in 2017
    Calderon expiring
    Grant is due $1.7MM in 2017

    Incoming contracts:
    Derrick Rose – expiring
    Justin Holiday – expiring
    2017 second round pick – probably vet minimum = minimum cap hold so for these purposes = zero

    I guess you can assume that Noah was signed to replace Lopez, so that was something made “necessary” by the trade. Noah’s contract details aren’t known yet, but assuming 4.5% raises, his 2017-18 salary would be about $17.6MM (and $16.8MM this coming season) to get to the 4/72MM number.

    I guess you can assume that Jennings was signed to replace the 2nd PG position, but he’s expiring after this season also.

    So total outgoing cap directly or indirectly related to Rose trade = $15.7MM
    Total incoming cap directly/indirectly related to Rose trade = $17.6MM.

    So it looks like we gave up $2.1MM in 2017 space as a direct or indirect result of that trade.

    In terms of 2016 space, it was pretty much a wash. I guess we wouldn’t have needed to sign Jennings, so that’s $5MM spent?

    Supposing that Rose-Grant are of equivalent value, you essentially gave away Lopez and Calderon for free. Lopez is a good player, Calderon is pretty useless.

    Grant is cost controlled for the next 4 years and Rose is on a 20 million contract and I would bet he won’t be cheap next year for whatever team he sign.

    Giving players from free is not the recipe for success. especially a good one with friendly contract.

    The only way to Phil look good in this trade is Rose returning to his pre-injury form.

    The only way to Phil look good in this trade is Rose returning to him pre-injury form.

    IMHO – ways for Phil to look good in this trade:

    1) Knicks play well, make playoffs
    2) Knicks don’t play well but Rose returns to pre-injury form
    3) Knicks play well, Rose leaves for another team, Knicks sign CP3 or Westbrook.

    #2 is probably least likely of the 3, but I’d say chances of one of 1, 2, or 3 happening is >50%?
    At least that’s my scientific prediction lol

    Man, in looking at that #29 pick in 2014, it’s pretty scary to think that Nicola Jokic was selected 12 picks later. Phil even had a shot at him when he selected CleAnthony Early.

    Imagine if Phil had selected Jokic and Porzingis? Then there would be no pessimists on this site for the better part of a decade!

    Ok the moron appellation was hyperbole, but his thinking that Rose is valuable makes obvious that he possesses little to no player evaluation skills. That much is clear.

    Ok the moron appellation was hyperbole, but his thinking that Rose is valuable makes obvious that he possesses little to no player evaluation skills. That much is clear.

    The best thing about this — no one knows for sure, but we’re all definitely going to find out a few long months from now. MAN I wish this season were starting already.

    @79 to say Shumpert had first round value is misleading when in fact he had the value of the second to last pick in the first round. Of the 32 players selected with the 29-60 picks in the 2014 draft, only 4 have turned out to be contributors at the NBA level: Nikola Jokic, Jordan Clarkson, Kyle Anderson, and (sort of) Dwight Powell. Of those guys, Jokic and Clarkson are the only 2 I would unquestionably rather have than Shumpert and maybe Kyle Anderson. So you’re looking at a 3 in 32, or 9% chance, that the 29th pick becomes more valuable than Shumpert.

    On the other hand, we ended up with Lance Thomas out of that trade. Lance vs Iman is pretty much a wash to me. So do you mean that you would have traded Iman Shumpert for a 9% chance at getting a better player, when instead we got an equivalent player on what ended up being a cheaper contract, with the added bonus of clearing JR’s salary? It wasn’t great or even good return, but it sure as hell wasn’t no return.

    @83, I am only refuting the idea that the DRose trade was somehow a crippling move for the franchise. Grant may be a cost controlled asset, but Rose is an expiring contract who is expensive this year, but will cost 0 in the years following. The way that Phil come out looking “good” for the trade is if Rose plays well, we make the playoffs and he then signs Westbrook or Paul with Rose’s cap space, but this isn’t a move that will negatively effect the Knicks for years to come.

    you can’t really say that ‘Noah, if he plays as expected, will have plenty of trade value.’… because coming off of two injuries it’s not going to be a total surprise if he misses time again…. are you counting on him playing over 2400 minutes this season? that is completely unrealistic…

    if he pulls up lame.. it will be disappointing but it’s not going to be a surprise….

    thomas was equally as bad a contract… he has half a season of ok play… he’s more than likely going to be a complete bust… also coming off of injury….

    lee is only a little safer… he’s been healthy but also role players like him don’t age well at all…. he’s more than likely to play well for the first two but the last two are a huge risk….

    re: the Shumpert non-trade in 2014

    Value at the trade deadline in 2014 is not the same as value at the trade deadline in 2015, at which point Shump was basically a 3 month rental.

    If he was worth only the #29 pick in 2014, he was surely worth no more than a second round pick at the deadline in 2015.

    So you can get on Phil all you want for not trading him in 2014, but I’m really not sure how much trade value he had at the time of the trade. I wasn’t exactly ecstatic about the return we got for our two best wings at the time, but it’s possible that was the best offer out there. The alternative was to wait until the offseason to lose Shump for nothing to RFA, and to take the chance the JR would opt into his contract.

    I think it’s misleading to say this. At the time, OKC had two -st round picks in the 2014 draft. And neither of them were set to be #29, as there were still about 30 games to be played before draft positions were to be set.

    The value Shumpert had was a 20-30 range pick in 2014. That is what we know for sure, and who knows what was on the table besides that if the Knicks had been looking for draft picks for him, instead of seeking a vet “for their eastern conference playoff push” or to package Ray Felton with.

    thomas was equally as bad a contract… he has half a season of ok play… he’s more than likely going to be a complete bust… also coming off of injury….

    Allen Crabbe also basically played well for a short period of time (26 min/game)

    per 100 poss numbers:
    Crabbe – TS 57.2, Usage 16.4, 5.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.4 blocks, 39.3% from 3P range
    Thomas – TS 55.7, Usage 16.9, 5.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.3 blocks, 40.4% from 3P range

    Now sure, Crabbe is younger (but already 24) and theoretically has more upside, but Thomas is a better defensive player with more versatility guarding 2-4. But Crabbe is making 3x Thomas and people are saying what a great move that was for the Nets?

    Lance was a fine signing. Of the two contracts, I’d probably take his over Crabbe’s. But Crabbe’s Numbers are over like 80% more minutes, as you said, he’s younger, and they are better. The steals and efficiency numbers are pretty big difference-makers.

    I don’t think anyone loves the Crabbe contract per se. But what it says in tandem with the Tyler Johnson contract about the Nets team building philosophy is positive — they’re being sensible and following a path that has a history of success. Hard to say that about the Knicks’.

    The value Shumpert had was a 20-30 range pick in 2014. That is what we know for sure

    Except that we don’t know this for sure at all. The Thunder had the #21 and #29 picks, but the article specifically states that OKC wanted to trade their pick. However, even if you were to include the Dallas pick (#21) in your sample you’re adding Cappella and Hood to the pool of productive players, so then you’re looking at a 6 out of 41, which is still a less than 15% that the player ends up being better than Shumpert.

    Again, Phil was not the person who made the decision not to trade him, so it’s pretty much a moot point.

    I don’t think anyone loves the Crabbe contract per se. But what it says in tandem with the Tyler Johnson contract about the Nets team building philosophy is positive — they’re being sensible and following a path that has a history of success. Hard to say that about the Knicks’.

    I don’t know many teams that have found success by severely overpaying for players, but perhaps you have some examples in mind? This is the sort of move that a Knicks GM would get criticized for, when you only have a limited budget you can’t allocate that money inefficiently, if you do you’d better be close to some payoff.

    Now people are knocking Phil for things that were done before he got here. You guys slay me!

    Lance was actually decent in his first two seasons albeit in limited minutes, then he basically didn’t play at all in his third. He’s had one terrible season- his fourth- and three okay ones. He’s not a guy who moves the needle much but 6.5m is about right for a guy who’ll probably play 15-20 minutes a night and be an excellent locker room/practice guy. Crabbe at his upcoming salary is a shot in the dark- he’s going to need to improve fairly significantly to be worth that money.

    Everyone is looking at the Net’s salary cap wrong. They are a team without a lot of talent and very few draft picks moving forward. It doesn’t really matter how much they pay Crabbe and Johnson because the salary floor is just as likely as hitting the cap anyway for a team so talent starved and unattractive to free agents. So instead of chasing sure thing mediocrity like Lee they chase someone younger with potential. If Crabbe or Johnson fail to improve the Nets have less cap space that wasn’t going to attract any notable free agents anyway and life goes on with really no downside. If either become really solid or better NBA players they have a couple young pieces to start building around.

    I personally think that other than the Warriors the Nets have totally won the off season. Lin, Johnson and Crabbe, that is a pretty solid group of players . If they could add a decent PF (I think Terrence Jones would be the choice and he will be the steal of free agency mark my words) they would be leaving free agency with a drastically improved team that is still young and has potential.

    Honestly I think after this off season the Nets have a better roster than the Knicks other than Porzingis. We are still in much better shape because of Porzingis and our picks but this was a great off season for them and a pretty poor one for us.

    Forgot about the 2nd rounder we got, but you can’t really say that Lance Thomas was a good return on a young player who still had (only) perceived value around the league.

    The more important point there is that you can’t credit that trade for netting them Lance Thomas when they cut Lance Thomas as soon as they acquired him. Then they re-signed him to a 10-day contract. You don’t do that to players you actually considered part of the trade.

    @101 disagree. Bottom line is they have done things to keep lance on the roster ever since the trade.

    They cut him. He was off the roster. You don’t get credit for acquiring players if you then cut them. They gained no benefit from cutting him other than not having to guarantee him a spot on their roster. You could say that they felt that no one would pick him up and this way they got to evaluate him without having to promise him anything, and that’s fair enough, but it doesn’t count as part of the Shumpert transaction any longer once he’s cut.

    Now, if you want to then credit Jackson for signing him to that 10-day contract, go right ahead. 😉 Not saying to not do that. It was just a separate transaction.

    I understand what you’re saying, but seeing as they signed Thomas just days after cutting him, and seeing as he was the main player discussed in their press release on the trade, I consider him as being a part of their return on the trade insofar as they deminstrated a desire to acquire him and then acquired and kept him long term. I don’t think 2 days off the roster really is any sort of indication that they didn’t want him on the teams. But agree to disagree.

    “we all knew that Sasha was coming back.
    Ron Baker looks like a D-Leaguer”

    Give me Ron Baker over washed up, hair net wearing Sasha every day and twice on Sundays

    The best thing about this — no one knows for sure, but we’re all definitely going to find out a few long months from now. MAN I wish this season were starting already.

    And when you’re wrong — and you almost certainly will be wrong — you will talk about how we couldn’t possibly know that this team would be bad — like real bad — even though many posters on this board have given reasonable arguments on why this will be a very bad team.

    If the O/U ends up being something crazy like 42 wins (similar to our 2013-14 season), I will back up my assertions of likelihood with Vegas betting and I will make sure that you know how much I win.

    Baker and Randle have nice skills. I hope they make the varsity and Hornacek can help develop them further. Baker is a younger version of Horny. Randle reminds me of Jeff Teague. He brought them in without any draft picks too. Well done, Phil!

    If the O/U ends up being something crazy like 42 wins (similar to our 2013-14 season), I will back up my assertions of likelihood with Vegas betting and I will make sure that you know how much I win.

    Ok knock yourself out.

    I really don’t need to be right. I don’t really mind if I’m wrong. I just like to watch my team be exciting, and so i’ll always have (sometimes irrational) hope they’ll be good. I just don’t think it’s that irrational.

    And remember- I didn’t agree with all the same moves you didn’t agree with (this time at least)! I’m just saying I see possibilities of them working out. I’m not planting a flag anywhere.

    By the way you know you can just bet online from your mom’s basement, right? =)

    Anyone see where Noah said that he just showed up at Phil’s door in Montana once and Phil said “Why are you here”? Noah said “Dunno” and then got invited in. He proceeded to spend 3 days there at Phil’s ranch.

    Simply heartwarming!

    Frank, I just found out that he’s been contributing to this forum ever since he was four years old too.

    I’m real serious, bruv. I’ll wait until the roster is filled out and I’ll place the bet then. I’ll post evidence, don’t you worry.

    Jowles, please don’t be a fool! You work too hard for your money to just waste it this way. Please reconsider before its too late. The Knicks are going to be very good this year.

    Have you even factored in the Lithuanian Lamar Odom?

    I personally think that other than the Warriors the Nets have totally won the off season.

    Just to be clear… are we talking about the team that committed a minimum of $43+ million/year to a trio of players who started a combined 26 games last season (combined for 10 win shares)?

    @SJK Lance was included for financial reasons. He was literally the least important minimum salary player on OKC’s roster, so they threw him in to make the salaries work. If after the trade OKC had waived Lance and the Knicks had signed him, would that have changed your appraisal of him? Furthermore, we were able to re-sign him to a minimum deal the following year (much to my and many others’ dismay!) because he was so awful. Even if god forbid OKC had excluded him from the trade and kept him, we could still have signed him in the summer.

    Just to be clear… are we talking about the team that committed a minimum of $43+ million/year to a trio of players who started a combined 26 games last season (combined for 10 win shares)?

    What about paying 52 million/year to a trio of players that combined for 3.1 win shares last season?

    I don’t know many teams that have found success by severely overpaying for players, but perhaps you have some examples in mind? This is the sort of move that a Knicks GM would get criticized for, when you only have a limited budget you can’t allocate that money inefficiently, if you do you’d better be close to some payoff.

    Imagine you have a fixed income of $40,000/year and any money you don’t spend is burnt on New Years’ Day. Furthermore, imagine that there are 29 other people on that same fixed income, and each of you has been programmed to only desire one thing: to own the most valuable stuff of anyone in your group.

    Your investment options are limited. You can either…
    A) Buy a a bond on a four year payment plan that costs you 10% more than its value and depreciates 0-10% every year. So for $110, you get $100 value, then about $95 for $110 the next year and $90 for $110 the next, etc.

    B) Pay a 30% premium to buy a stock that grows between 0 and 25% each year. So you pay $130/year for the $100 stock, but it has the potential to grow. After two years, it could be worth more than you’re paying for it annually.

    This is the math of free agent money. If you’re going to spend it, you can buy a vet who won’t improve and who you’ll have to overpay for (the nature of free agency since max and rookie scale contracts subsidize free agency) or you can gamble on a higher upside player and pay even MORE but at least have the chance to end up with a player who is worth more than what you’re paying.

    Now, imagine if you have a handicap like the Nets (and Knicks to a lesser extent) do. You know you’re not winning for the next year or two, so the up front expense of paying for these developing players is irrelevant to you.

    Crabbe has the potential to pay off. It’s a lot of money to spend, but at least there’s a chance he becomes the next Wes Matthews or something, in which case you are thrilled to be paying him that little.

    @THCJ Forget Vegas, let’s make it interesting, I’m willing to take the other side of that O/U 42 bet…What type of $ you working with 😉

    I disagree with nearly everything you say about the Knicks, ruruland, but for some reason, I think I could send you a money order for $1,000 to be placed against the Knicks at a local sportsbook and every penny would go toward that bet. Take that FWIW.

    Not sure if Kah-Nee-Ta out here takes futures bets, but I’ll look into it. I’m not losing out on the opportunity to make easy money like I did in 2013-14 (mostly because I lived on the East Coast, where it was hard to do this sort of thing ethically).

    Sorry, jkhar, but this website isn’t for that. Wouldn’t want Mike getting into any trouble for me stealing your money like that.

    ; )

    Honestly I think after this off season the Nets have a better roster than the Knicks other than Porzingis.

    Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?

    Let’s be honest. The ONLY reason Durant signed with GSW was so he wouldn’t get kicked in the junk by Draymond Green.

    Sorry for the typo, obviously I meant Derrick, not Herrick.

    The undrafted hires that stuck with the Knicks, Galloway and Williams seem to have turned into legit NBA players and gotten good contracts. I hope he can do this again, because I thin we still need a bench.

    I would hope that it helps our recruiting that players can come here handcrafted and get a shot and end up getting a good contract somewhere

    DW got 1 year at $5m. Nothing to put on our development of players cv.

    That’s actually pretty hilarious. Do agents really not know what the market is for their players? He should have just stayed here for the same money.

    Comments are closed.