Knicks Morning News (2016.07.06)

  • [New York Times] Filling Warriors’ Bench Should Not Be a Problem (Wed, 06 Jul 2016 00:36:59 GMT)

    Assumptions that Golden State would have trouble accommodating Kevin Durant’s salary overlooked that other players would accept minimal contracts to join up.

  • [New York Times] Dirk Nowitzki and Mavericks Reportedly Reach Two-Year Agreement (Wed, 06 Jul 2016 00:17:36 GMT)

    Nowitzki will have a chance to spend 20 seasons with the Dallas Mavericks, the only franchise he has ever played for.

  • [New York Times] Satoransky Relishes Prospect of Wizards Spell (Wed, 06 Jul 2016 07:51:31 GMT)

    Tomas Satoransky regards his expected move from Barcelona to the NBA’s Washington Wizards to provide him with the greatest challenge of his career, the Czech guard told Reuters.

  • 310 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2016.07.06)”

    This recent streak of peering into the crystal ball to calculate the Knicks putrid team eFG% for the upcoming seasons seems really premature to me, for at least a couple of reasons:

    1) SYNGERY. Yeah, sorry but it’s true–we’re talking about a core group of player who have not played together nor ever played for this coach. It is really, really easy to envision how this specific group could complement each other’s games in a way that last year’s Knicks (or Bulls) did not. Porzingis put up a pretty mediocre TS% last season, some of which is likely attributable to being a rookie and will improve on its own, but much of which must have to do with last year’s personnel.

    How often did any of Calderon, Grant or Galloway successfully break down a defense and create an easy shot for him (or anyone else)? Once a fortnight? I think we all recognize that Rose and Jennings are not efficient scorers around the rim anymore (not that Jennings ever was), but they absolutely can still roast people off the dribble and get into the lane. Do you guys not remember having the no. 3 ranked offense in 2012 despite a playing Felton (.505 TS) 2300 minutes? Just his ability to penetrate resulted in open looks around the perimeter and scoring opportunities at the basket for Chandler, either intentional or off missed layups.

    Simply put, this team has players who can do things that last year’s team absolutely could not, and a starting five who collectively possess a far more well-rounded and complementary set of skills, in theory.

    [cont.]

    [cont.]

    2) COACHING/PACE. It’s been five years since any Knicks team even tried to push the pace. We’ve been painfully slow since D’Antoni departed. Hornacek has made it very clear that this is going to change, and Phil has gone out and acquired two PGs who excel at pushing the ball up and attacking in transition. Courtney Lee was something like 9th in the NBA last season at PPP in transition among qualifying players, and one of the only players not to turn the ball over on the fast break even one time all season. Does nobody think it’s possible that the team’s scoring efficiency will improve by virtue of attacking defenses before they are set? Nobody thinks Melo and KP’s 3FG% might go up if they take more threes trailing a break rather than against a set defense in the halfcourt?

    More so that any time in recent memory, this team demands a wait-and-see approach… there are simply too many new pieces, playing in new circumstances, combined with a new coach, for anyone to sit back and say “well their eFG% last season was bad and therefore it will be bad next season and the team will be bad, end of story.”

    I know people have been lightly roasting David West for his thirsty ring chasing, but what’s the difference between what he’s doing and what Durant is doing? Is it just because KD is so much better?

    that said, what I don’t like about the KD move is it basically means that if you want a competitive NBA season someone on the Warriors needs to get hurt, and that’s not exactly fun to root for.

    You still gotta play the games, bro. LeBron, Kyrie, and Kevin Love were supposed to be the juggernaut team in the league, remember? Then Kevin Love regressed severely. A top four of LeBron, Love, Thompson, and Irving sounded crazy.

    You still gotta play the games, bro. LeBron, Kyrie, and Kevin Love were supposed to be the juggernaut team in the league, remember? Then Kevin Love regressed severely. A top four of LeBron, Love, Thompson, and Irving sounded crazy.

    Trouble is – not only is GS going to have the greatest collection of offensive talent in NBA history, they’ll probably also be the best defensive team in the league. Now that Durant doesn’t need to expend all that energy on the offensive end of the floor, he’ll be able to spread his pterodactyl wings on defense. He has so much more defensive potential than Harrison Barnes, and the death lineup was already amazing on defense.

    I know people have been lightly roasting David West for his thirsty ring chasing, but what’s the difference between what he’s doing and what Durant is doing? Is it just because KD is so much better?

    No difference, except that West is not an all-time great player, so no one really cares thaaat much. Well, he also said this 2 years ago:

    “I’m not going to be one of those guys that’s just out here chasing [a ring]. I’m not going to one of those guys out here sacrificing who I am, the things that make me me, to go out and get a material goal. That’s just not the way I’m wired”

    No I definitely think the Warriors are going to win 75 games next season. The box scores are gonna be insane, and that’s admittedly my favorite part of this. I still laugh when I look at LeBron’s 2009 numbers in the regular season and playoffs because they were so gaudy. Just to see what Steph and KD do is going to be crazy. I firmly believe they will win every championship from here to 2020.

    Just saying, KP could break out and become Dirk 2.0, Noah could regain 2014 form, Derrick Rose could have a career year, Melo could be 2014 Melo, and Courtney Lee could beat a career best to lead the Knicks to a 2011 Mavs run where Melo tears through the playoffs and promptly roasts KD in a 6 game finals victory. It’s extremely unlikely, but that’s why you play the games. Nobody thought Rose, Bogans, Deng, Boozer, and Noah would win 62 or that th Mavs would beat everybody in 2011. But we watched the season play out and it turned out to be more competitive than originally thought to be. The Rondo, Ray, Pierce (obligatory Fuck Paul Pierce), and KG won in 2008 and then they never won another one. Winning is hard and repeating is a different ball game altogether.

    I know people have been lightly roasting David West for his thirsty ring chasing, but what’s the difference between what he’s doing and what Durant is doing? Is it just because KD is so much better?

    Yeah, West is slightly more fun to poke at because at this point in his career he is really just picking the bakery with the best cannoli, whereas Durant is both picking the bakery and making the cannoli. The point being, they’re both screwed because we have the actual Baker. In fact, with KOQ locked in we can bring Seraphin back and have the Butcher, the Baker and Le Nohandlebrickmaker and all they have is a bunch of sneaker contracts with terrible nicknames.

    KD had a chance to join the Warriors for their move to San Francisco in what will be a ridiculous stadium and possibly form the greatest team in NBA history with Curry, Thompson, Green, Pachulia, Iguodala, and Livingston. I will never begrudge him for that. I was mad at LeBron because I thought he should have come here, but this time I knew Durant wouldn’t come and I thought it would be awesome to see the world’s greatest shooter and scorer on the same team. These guys will never go to a Game 7 again.

    With KD to the Warriors — It’s sort of nice not having to worry about having a team that’s not good enough to win a championship. I can be fully happy with second round exits – will allow me to sleep more when the Knicks are eliminated but will still give me some joy.

    “No I definitely think the Warriors are going to win 75 games next season.”
    I know that I am very much in the minority, but I don’t think that the Warriors will be as good next year as they were this past year. The Warriors had a perfect blend of stars and role players, each of whom knew and understood exactly what they were supposed to do and were willing to play their respective roles. Obviously, Durant is a huge upgrade over Barnes from a talent perspective (but Pachulia and West are a downgrade from Bogut and Ezeli), but who will be taking fewer shots than he is used to taking — Durant, Curry or Thompson? There were rumblings that Durant was not happy with the way that Westbrook would take over the offense and leave an open Durant standing by himself waiting for a pass that never came. How is he going to feel when Curry and Thompson are jacking up contested 35 foot shots and the shots aren’t falling like in the last few games of the finals? I know that many people on this site think that all you have to do is add up stats and you can figure out exactly how a team is going to do, but “synergy,” cohesiveness, shared sacrifice, etc., etc. all matter. Miami’s Big 3 only worked because Bosh was willing to become the third wheel — so much so that many people started referring to them as the Big 2-1/2. Who among the Warriors’ Big 3 will be willing to do that?

    I do agree they haven’t won anything yet. And you can imagine a scenario where they don’t romp their way to the title, but it’s not easy. Zaza and Iggy would have to have fairly abrupt declines, maybe Draymond has to play center too much and wears down, KD has an affair with Ayesha. . . but they have 3 guys likely to be among the 10-12 best players in the game all in their physical primes, plus Iggy, Klay & Livingston plus West and maybe a couple more thirsty vets. That’s a mighty spicy meatball.

    I know that I am very much in the minority, but I don’t think that the Warriors will be as good next year as they were this past year.

    This is perfectly reasonable. Even if next year’s peak Warrior’s team is better than this years peak Warriors team, they might have injury problems during the season, other teams might get luckier in some close games, Steph might not be the best offensive player in modern NBA history next season, etc. Maybe the Dubs won’t even try to win some games. Winning the most games in NBA history isn’t easy.

    @12 ptmilo

    West is slightly more fun to poke at because at this point in his career he is really just picking the bakery with the best cannoli, whereas Durant is both picking the bakery and making the cannoli.

    I love this metaphor. AY-YI-YI KEVIN why you no like-a you mama’s cannoli no more?

    the Butcher, the Baker and Le Nohandlebrickmaker

    Stop! Stop! Too much brilliance for one post! You’ll ruin the demand for dank memes!

    Dubs will have enough star talent that they honestly could try resting guys every 4th or 5 th game. Never play more than x number of minutes per week. Everyone gets at least a 4 day break monthly. Stuff like that. Would be really interesting.

    Spurs last year were arguably better during regular season w/ higher differential, but weren’t that close to record. Theres just a lot of luck involved in getting the best record.

    What Golden State was able to do, no team should be able to do. Just ridiculous. I see a 9-game improvement. Who’s gonna beat them? OK, a bit dramatic. But that roster is insane. Can the Eastern All-stars just play the Warriors next season?

    I remember a certain gentleman who posts on here (whose name rhymes with “bowels”) lamenting that the Knicks don’t dunk enough. To that, I share this 3-Fire-Emoji mixtape from the Knicks’ newest Euro signing. He looks like a stretched-out Luke Skywalker! In every single play he’s slashing to the basket for a monster jam! He’s a younger, cheaper, Lithuanian Derrick Williams. I SHALL CALL HIM DERIKAS VILHELMAS.

    but fr fr tho “Mindaugas Kuzminskas” is already on the 2016-17 All-NBA Name Team and he hasn’t even stepped on the court. Just imagine Clyde going “Min-dargrass Kuzz-mink-serrs.” BUMP PHIL’S OFFSEASON EVAL UP A HALF LETTER GRADE.

    @8 Frank

    Wow. Thanks for sharing the link. With what we’re learning about concussions and long-term traumatic brain injury effects… will there still be an NFL 50 years from now?

    Also more evidence that Marshawn Lynch is one of the finest human beings walking the planet.

    @19 Do the W’s have a backup C behind Zaza? Does it matter? Who needs depth when 2 All-NBA players can be on the floor at any time?

    – I’m at peace with the Knicks offseason. It’s not at all what I’d have done, but if you were going to “go for it” outside of taking a risk on Noah and even including that the pieces seem logical and make sense in term of fit. Our offense is a much bigger concern than our defense as with Noah, Lee and KP we have 3 clear plus defender in the starting lineup which is the first time that’s been the case since 2011/12 I guess. Just don’t trade any future first round picks at all and I’m fine with all the possible outcomes this year and moving forward.

    – I get why Durant went to GSW and don’t begrudge him the move. He’s a free agent, they had cap space, he’s completely within reason to go there. That being said it’s such a lame move from a top-3 player and former MVP to leave for the team that he blew a 3-1 lead to because he played like total shit in Game 6 when an average shooting performance would have been enough to put OKC over the top. I also think it’s quite shitty that as soon as he leaves we get leaks from his camp about how he didn’t like playing with Westbrook’s ball dominant style and how he had to take too many contested jumpers.

    They won’t break 73 wins next year because there will be an adjustment period, but as long as they get 10-15 minutes of average center play to help Draymond have some reserves in the tank for when they need it later in the season it’s almost impossible to see anybody beating this team. The pieces fit almost seamlessly together and the floor is going to be spaced out like crazy.

    Frank,

    I too can see the Warriors resting guys not unlike what the Spurs do. They honestly don’t need to win 70+ games this year. Or ever again. Just win out the west.

    Imagine how much fresher Curry, Thompson and Durant will be if they get to rest just 10 games a season.

    That’ll both help them in the playoffs as well as extend their stars’ prime years by at least a year or two. Perhaps becoming THE dominant team through 2020. Welcome to the new NBA.

    Very good feature article on Mindaugus.

    He really seems to be a less athletic and less strong Derrick Williams with a jumper, all shitposting aside. Used as “super role player” in Europe — no plays ran for him, played off-ball exclusively. So his game will need little adaptation, style-wise, to fit in NY. Worked hard to develop 3-point range over the course of his career. Crashes the glass and loves running the floor. Struggles on defense because he’s not too agile.

    Also, according to a Lithuanian P&T commenter, his nickname is “Kuzya,” which is a common term of endearment for “puppies, kittens and pet birds… [because] he looks like one of those.”

    So his nickname is basically “Cutie” or “Shnookums” or “Mr. Pickles.”

    Is Courtney Lee a plus defender? I’d be happy with adequate.

    +/- stats have him consistently slightly below average. I think he’s fine but he only became a stopper the moment we signed him.

    Doug, that article is looking at a 200 minute sample where opponents attempted 24 threes contested by Lee.

    @29 No, they don’t. See @31 for the good stuff, the NBA Stats defensive breakdown.

    Imho “Statistical Analysis” is good to understand “How you won” and “Why you lost”.
    It helps you to make adjustments faster and easier.
    I wouldn’t trust it though to build a team or to project next season’s stats.
    The way to envision the future is by watching the player play and by experience.
    That’s the reason why Draymond Green was a no35 pick, Isiah Thomas no60, Hassan Whiteside no33,Jeremy Lin undrafted, Darko Milicic no2 …

    Doug, that’s a link to his regular season defensive numbers after 28 games. After 79 games his 3pt defense number was down to -0.1. I’m still not sure how useful these stats are.

    @29 No, they don’t. See @31 for the good stuff, the NBA Stats defensive breakdown.

    Those are not +/- numbers which is what I quoted. You can find those here.

    Those dashboard numbers look like a very small sample over a single season. If I flip them back one year the overall number completely reverses and 2013-2014 also has him below average. I’d say at best that looks like mixed evidence.

    “That’s the reason why Draymond Green was a no35 pick, Isiah Thomas no60, Hassan Whiteside no33,Jeremy Lin undrafted, Darko Milicic no2 …”
    His last year in college, in 26 minutes a game, Whiteside put up per 36 numbers of 18 points, 13 rebounds and over 7 blocks a game. I don’t think statistics are why he slipped to the second round.

    i’d be ok with the durant move if there was a challenger in the wings but that challenger was the thunder…. right now you really just have the cavs and maaaaybe the spurs…. if the celtics can nab westbrook they would be #3 but that’s really it…

    when the heat got together there were viable contenders all over the league.. and the mavs handed their asses to them… that 2nd year they really stepped up but the spurs were def worthy adversaries….

    but i don’t even see anyone else emerging in the next year or so unless the wolves start growing up fast….

    @ and in Sac he averaged 0.00 in all categories just 2 yrs before he became probably the most dominant C in the league.
    Isn’t that a proof that predictions via player’s previous stats are just lotto ?

    Publicly available defensive statistics are still lacking. It’s one area where the eye test is still probably a better way to evaluate, but that’s still flawed. I remember reading an article a while ago about the Raptors analytics department and how they were using player tracking to compare a players positioning on defense to some “ideal position” and grading players based on how far they were from that optimal defensive position. I have no doubt that most teams do have pretty sophisticated defensive analytics to evaluate players, and I also believe most GMs and coaches probably ignore them for the most part.

    Just imagine how frustrating it’d be to work for a team’s analytics department, working long hours gathering and sorting all this data that the team spends thousands of dollars to have access to, working hard to come up with new analytical approaches for player evaluations, making full statistical breakdowns of all available free agents, with recommendations… and then your team trades for Derrick Rose and signs Brandon Jennings.

    Individual players’ opponent 3pt percentage is an incredibly volatile stat with very low autocorrelation from period to period. This means you need an enormous sample (many seasons with large disparities) if you want to take a number-centric approach and learn anything meaningful about a particular player, one season gets you no information in 99.99% of cases. Lee isn’t remotely near that required sample/disparity in the few years of data we have on him. My league pass + LASIK take is that Lee is very close to the epitome of an average NBA defender, though it’s unlikely he stays that way for much longer. His overall on-off numbers and lineup adjusted DRAPM look a hell of a lot like what you’d expect from an average or just slightly below average career defender, but they are too milquetoast to feel like they are saying much of anything at all. The good news is he hustles and generally looks like a smart defender who sometimes actually tries to take the ball from the other team, so he’s not annoying to watch like Afflalo.

    Reading Danny Granger’s stats one would have thought that he’d still be among the best players in the league even right now but…

    I took a look at an old DX article about Whiteside to see what they were saying about him in college and they raved about his skillset and production but were worried that he was too skinny, and had concerns about his academic problems and maturity issues. So it’s like his NBA scouting report, except nobody worries about his size anymore.

    @33 – all those guys were underrated by scouts but draft models were pretty high on each of them…. save for isaiah thomas….

    The players have only 3 ways to go.
    Up,Down or “the same”
    Which analytic stat shows which way a player will go on the next season ?
    i’ll wait patiently for this one….

    @33 Seriously, all those guys you listed (except Darko) had very good college careers and then produced in the NBA when actually given a chance. How is that a knock on stats? Whiteside was drafted late because he was a nutcase, Dray and Thomas were drafted late because they were too small, and Lin wasn’t drafted because he was Ivy League. Their being overlooked had nothing to do with their production.

    All i’m trying to say is that last year’s stats don’t mean much for the next season/next team/next league of each player.
    They’re human beings, not machines.
    Their psychology, ambitions,life conditions, erotics, family issues and many other factors play a big role on their productivity.
    It’s not just numbers.

    @46 I think he was referring more to any player. Not just by age

    Oh absolutely, but for a large majority of players, previous production (especially for a veteran player with plenty of playing time) IS a pretty good indicator of future production.

    @46
    I respect stats, i read them and get many answers by checking them.
    I don’t trust them tho when it comes to predict the future.
    At least not with my eyes closed.

    PTMilo in midseason form.

    While I agree that the Dubs made the season somewhat less interesting, as a stat geek that four man lineup will provide the most fascinating data point yet for the usage/efficiency debate.

    Can someone predict the Rookie of the year, the Rookie first team, the busts of the draft and the most improved player of the next season by just checking at their stats ?

    Avoiding the busts and finding those who’d blossom out of nowhere is a big part of this league.
    And i’m afraid that stats don’t really help finding those 2.

    In the last 15 years, every major move by the Knicks has come with the stipulation that the player(s) we just got will play better here than they have previously. Marbury will be better, he just has to improve his shot selection. Steve Francis will be great, he just needed a change in scenery. Eddie Curry will be good, he just has to try harder on the boards. Amare will be fine, he just needs to recover from microfracture surgery. Melo will be great, he just needs to improve his shot selection and pass a little more. Bargnani will be good, he just… spaces the floor? Derrick Rose will be good because he will recover his form from 5 years and 3 knee surgeries ago. It gets tiring to hear…

    Even with the last 2 seasons Melo has been better as a Knick than a Nugget.

    Even with the last 2 seasons Melo has been better as a Knick than a Nugget.

    Yeah, he has played a little better, but it’s not like he became the superstar he has always been touted to be. But yeah, he has played a bit better than expected, which is awesome. Melo has definitely grown on me in his time here, but he is still grossly overpaid (even by today’s cap space).

    Oh absolutely, but for a large majority of players, previous production (especially for a veteran player with plenty of playing time) IS a pretty good indicator of future production.

    The ability to find outliers is what separates good front offices from bad ones. So when you say large majority, that’s fine. But figuring out who the small minority might be IS the market inefficiency that everyone is looking for. Could be UDFAs, players without ideal measurements, international players, but also theoretically a small subset of injured players who have underperformed statistically because of those injuries.

    In the last 15 years, every major move by the Knicks has come with the stipulation that the player(s) we just got will play better here than they have previously. Marbury will be better, he just has to improve his shot selection. Steve Francis will be great, he just needed a change in scenery. Eddie Curry will be good, he just has to try harder on the boards. Amare will be fine, he just needs to recover from microfracture surgery. Melo will be great, he just needs to improve his shot selection and pass a little more. Bargnani will be good, he just… spaces the floor? Derrick Rose will be good because he will recover his form from 5 years and 3 knee surgeries ago. It gets tiring to hear…

    This is sort of like when the announcers say “The Bulls haven’t beaten the Spurs in San Antonio since 1982”, even when the teams, front offices, players , etc. have completely changed multiple times over.

    The consistent player in all these examples is Dolan. The real question is whether Dolan is still running things, or whether we believe Phil is truly in control. If we believe the latter, then the current moves have very little relevance to the moves of previous regimes. If the former, then we’re all screwed anyway.

    All i’m trying to say is that last year’s stats don’t mean much for the next season/next team/next league of each player.

    I’m almost positive that all empirical evidence on this indicates the polar opposite of what you’re saying. Models based on NCAA data do a better job of predicting future NBA production than draft position, and in the NBA my understanding is player production from year-to-year is pretty static overall. That doesn’t mean there aren’t HUGE exceptions to both of those general rules, but the data indicates it’s much smarter to operate with a heavy emphasis on statistics than on anything else.

    The consistent player in all these examples is Dolan. The real question is whether Dolan is still running things, or whether we believe Phil is truly in control. If we believe the latter, then the current moves have very little relevance to the moves of previous regimes. If the former, then we’re all screwed anyway.

    If Phil is making the moves he’s already made all on his own, it stands to reason his abilities as an executive aren’t that much better than any of his predecessor’s. Seriously, the Rose trade was Isiah-level boneheaded.

    I do think if Phil didn’t have control, he’d just leave. But the real problem is the “win now” attitude that the franchise can never seem to rid itself of. The Melo contract really sealed the fate of the franchise, in that we had to make moves based on his timeline.

    But figuring out who the small minority might be IS the market inefficiency that everyone is looking for. Could be UDFAs, players without ideal measurements, international players, but also theoretically a small subset of injured players who have underperformed statistically because of those injuries.

    Yeah, absolutely, but you want to minimize the risks when taking chances on these inefficiencies. You don’t want to give out a 4 year contract to a center that has been riddled with injuries for 2 straight seasons, or trade solid players on good contracts for a guy who has either been injured or awful for 4 straight years.

    That doesn’t mean there aren’t HUGE exceptions to both of those general rules, but the data indicates it’s much smarter to operate with a heavy emphasis on statistics than on anything else.

    Again – the easy part is using the statistics. The hard part is trying to figure out who the statistics might be missing or misinterpreting. Or which statistics to trust the most, and the least.

    Just for instance — if you redrafted the 2011 draft, there’s no question Kawhi Leonard would be the #1 pick. But back pre-draft, he was known to have a ton of defensive potential, but his offense was pretty awful in college. TS 50-51, 20-27% from college 3 point range, A/TO ratio barely 1. What was it about his game, his mental makeup, etc. that made the Spurs trade up to get him? And not just any trade up – they sent George Hill who played REALLY well for them. What was it that suggested that they could turn a bad college shooter into a truly elite shooter?

    I mean, look at this from DX in 2011 re: Kawhi:

    According to Synergy Sports Technology, no single offensive situation accounted for more than 17% of his touches, with Spot-Ups, Isolations, Put Backs, Fast Breaks, Cuts, and Pick and Roll situations each accounting for anywhere between 8-18% of his total possessions. Leonard ranks right around the 45th percentile amongst all NCAA players in each of those metrics in terms of Points Per-Possession.

    He was below average on every kind of offensive possession! And now he’s within spitting distance of 50/40/90 on >25% usage.

    I guess it’s possible they thought he’d just be a defensive stopper, but the Spurs don’t just trade up for anyone. It’s likely they saw something on film, something during interviews, etc. that made them pull the trigger. Something that wasn’t caught just by statistics. And that’s why the Spurs are great.

    Just for instance — if you redrafted the 2011 draft, there’s no question Kawhi Leonard would be the #1 pick. But back pre-draft, he was known to have a ton of defensive potential, but his offense was pretty awful in college. TS 50-51, 20-27% from college 3 point range, A/TO ratio barely 1. What was it about his game, his mental makeup, etc. that made the Spurs trade up to get him?

    This might be the worst possible example for what you’re arguing. Leonard was adored by every draft model in existence. It’s true that on top of that he made unforeseen improvements, but the Spurs absolutely used statistics, and heavily, in making that decision.

    but he is still grossly overpaid (even by today’s cap space).

    Nah. Mike Conley makes 30 mil a year

    You don’t want to give out a 4 year contract to a center that has been riddled with injuries for 2 straight seasons, or trade solid players on good contracts for a guy who has either been injured or awful for 4 straight years.

    I can’t argue with you on the length of Noah’s contract. I think that is a bad move, albeit one that has a measurable but not awful effect on years 3-4. This isn’t a max contract, and will end up probably being <17% of the cap even then. One could semi-justify it just with the supposed leadership he brings.

    I'm on record as not being so anti- the Rose trade. Jared Dubin has done a bunch of podcasts on this, and I have the same feeling as he does — this year is a test run for Hornacek's offensive system using players who can attack the basket and get out in transition. The best case scenario is we get a year of entertaining basketball that ends up with us making the 2nd or even 3rd round of the playoffs, thereby validating the team construct and system. Then we can go to Westbrook or CP3 and tell them they are the missing piece to at least have a shot at the NBA finals, which they will not be able to do in the Western Conference. The other "best case" scenario is that Rose + Noah both get injured, we're horrible, and we get another high pick. The "tricky" scenario is if Rose plays REALLY well, and then it'll be up to phil to decide what he wants to do about re-signing him. But at least that's a choice as opposed to something we just have to accept.

    By all reports, we got Noah because of Rose and Lee because of Noah. Without the trade, would we have been able to get a good enough wing to make any sort of playoff noise? The ceiling for the pre-July NYK might have been a 7/8 seed. The ceiling is almost certainly higher now (and sure, maybe the floor is lower). CP3/RW almost certainly wouldn't come to a fringe playoff team — but if things break…

    rookie of the year, all rookie first team are subjective measures and really is a function of minutes more than anything….

    but even still if you have gave me 3 to 1 odds on towns winning roty… i would have taken that in a heartbeat…

    Here’s what scary about GS: if you randomly eliminated any 2 of the big 4 for each game, they’d still win 50+ next season. As it is, it’s going to be up to them how many they win, maybe they try for 82-0 so no one will ever break their record?

    Leonard was adored by every draft model in existence. It’s true that on top of that he made unforeseen improvements, but the Spurs absolutely used statistics, and heavily, in making that decision.

    Is there historic PAWS/40 data out there anywhere? Cursory Googling yields little — or worse yet, grainy images of text.

    This might be the worst possible example for what you’re arguing. Leonard was adored by every draft model in existence. It’s true that on top of that he made unforeseen improvements, but the Spurs absolutely used statistics, and heavily, in making that decision.

    OK fine – it was one that just came to the mind. But you get my point. The draft models didn’t love him because of his shooting. I assume it was because of his crazy off/def rebounding from the SF position in college, which actually has not been a major strength of his in the pros.

    The other thing I’d say about this “win now” business —

    I think because we’ve had so few draft picks that have stayed, we’ve all forgotten how young players are when they get drafted. Even after Noah expires after the 2019-2020 season, Kristaps will only be 25 years old. Our coming draft picks will probably be younger than that.

    The Spurs (built organically of course) inserted Kawhi into a team of dudes in their 30s, planning a transition from the old guard to the new guard. Not every good/sustainable team needs to be built from scratch like OKC was.

    By all reports, we got Noah because of Rose and Lee because of Noah. Without the trade, would we have been able to get a good enough wing to make any sort of playoff noise? The ceiling for the pre-July NYK might have been a 7/8 seed.

    If the goal is to be as good as possible in order to try and impress free agents (which I think is dumb but whatever), giving up a good player and one of our only young, cost-controlled, and potentially improving players for an undoubtably terrible player is not consistent with that goal. If not trading for Derrick Rose means you don’t sign Joakim Noah for four years at age 31, you live with that most dire of consequences and target Biyombo or something. If not signing Joakim Noah means you don’t sign Courtney Lee and his .088 career WS48, you live with that most dire of consequences and target Solomon Hill or something.

    It is much more likely that trading for Derrick Rose places a hard cap on our ceiling rather than raising it. It’s very difficult to be a good team when you have a very high usage player with a long history of being incredibly inefficient.

    i’ll continue my argument by saying that “if stats were so absolutely right then bookies would have not existed”
    Stats are showing indications and possibilities but they ‘re not definitive or predetermine the future.
    That’s why sports are exciting.
    Otherwise why watch a predictable game w/o competition?

    OK fine – it was one that just came to the mind. But you get my point.

    I actually don’t. There isn’t a long history of smart organizations acquiring players with the idea that they’ll radically change their habits or tendencies. Again there are some exceptions, but as Kevin pointed out this is the mindset that has played a huge role in dooming the Knicks to irrelevance for the vast majority of my lifetime.

    this 3-Fire-Emoji mixtape

    Dough, we need to sign the guy setting the sweet moving pick that makes the dunk possible.

    Plus, and I hate to split hairs….you compare him to Luke Skywalker, but I think you mean Kenny.

    Bookies exist by preying upon people who subscribe to the mental gymnastics running rampant on this board.

    Bookies make money by playing to the percentages over a large number of transactions. That’s all the #haters are trying to explain. Of course we’re hoping for a winning team. Past performance of the players on our roster has indicated that a winning season with this roster is unlikely.

    I actually don’t. There isn’t a long history of smart organizations acquiring players with the idea that they’ll radically change their habits or tendencies. Again there are some exceptions, but as Kevin pointed out this is the mindset that has played a huge role in dooming the Knicks to irrelevance for the vast majority of my lifetime.

    *eyeroll*

    Citing PAWS48 or win score as a reason it was obvious to draft Kawhi is just lazy.
    He has so far outperformed even these statistical projections that it’s not even funny.
    The reason he has done so is because he made a completely unpredictable statistical leap in efficiency.

    Again – the story isn’t that most players don’t change their tendencies or habits. The story is “how do you know which ones WILL change their statistical profile for the better”. Team management is only getting smarter and smarter, Vlade notwithstanding. Finding players that are undervalued by whatever metrics is how you break away from the pack.

    And re: Rose and Noah. We don’t need to relitigate this over and over and over.

    Obviously trading for guys with injury histories is a risk.
    There is a difference of opinion here re: how much risk (both upside and downside) there is.

    Re: how to improve a team – it’s very hard to build a team piece by piece looking for little wins here and there. Takes a ton of patience and TONS of luck. Presti has done a good job. Houston maxed out at an unexpected WCF appearance and looks to get much worse from here. Philly is trying but jury is still out.

    But overall you probably need to really hit on draft picks and/or sign a truly difference -making free agent. GS has shown you don’t necessarily need top 2-3 picks (although it’s certainly much easier that way). Phil hasn’t traded away any significant picks since coming on board, leaving path 1 open, and is trying to make a case to future difference-making FAs that this is the place to be.

    To be clear on Kawhi – his win scores are not so different between college and pros — but the way in which he gets his win score is very different. Now much more dependent on efficiency of scoring than on rebounding. Seriously, he went from ~1.01 PPP to 1.2 PPP from college to pros, while his rebounding decreased from 13 per 40 to 8 per 40.

    wondering – how many players went from ~1 PPP in college to 1.2 PPP in the pros? how do you predict that?

    you’re right – there isn’t a long history of players changing style from college to pros. That the Spurs foresaw this is why they’ve won a bazillion games in the last few years.

    Citing PAWS48 or win score as a reason it was obvious to draft Kawhi is just lazy.
    He has so far outperformed even these statistical projections that it’s not even funny.
    The reason he has done so is because he made a completely unpredictable statistical leap in efficiency.

    Sure, but they started with a player who projected very well based on the stats. His selection at #15 was warranted based on the stats, and then the Spurs helped him be a legitimate MVP candidate, arguably a better all-around player than even Curry was last year.

    It was obvious to draft Leonard due to the stats. That’s why I and several others on the board really wanted him. He didn’t have to turn out a superstar for that decision to have been a good bet.

    wondering – how many players went from ~1 PPP in college to 1.2 PPP in the pros? how do you predict that?

    you’re right – there isn’t a long history of players changing style from college to pros. That the Spurs foresaw this is why they’ve won a bazillion games in the last few years.

    http://wagesofwins.com/2008/09/29/reference-points-for-evaluating-college-performance/

    Now what does all this mean?

    There is a relationship between numbers in college and the NBA. And in a moment I will explain where that relationship will be discussed.

    The consistency between college and professional numbers in the NBA exceeds the level of consistency we see in professional numbers in baseball or football. In other words, basketball players are more consistent from college to the pros than baseball players are from one season of Major League Baseball to the next.

    All that being said, these numbers are not a guarantee. It’s perfectly possible for a below average performer in college to become an above average performer in the NBA. Likewise, above average college numbers do not guarantee an above average NBA performance.

    Dough Chew
    The second dunk on the mixed tape was on Bargnani.
    That diminishes the tape.

    lol

    “Imho “Statistical Analysis” is good to understand “How you won” and “Why you lost”.
    It helps you to make adjustments faster and easier.
    I wouldn’t trust it though to build a team or to project next season’s stats.
    The way to envision the future is by watching the player play and by experience.
    That’s the reason why Draymond Green was a no35 pick, Isiah Thomas no60, Hassan Whiteside no33,Jeremy Lin undrafted, Darko Milicic no2 …”

    Man, life is sooo cyclical. People posted messages like this seven years ago and got destroyed.
    Just saying.

    If stats were showing the future CLEARLY then Leonard would have been no1 draft pick and Anthony Bennett would haven never been drafted and Jimmy Butler would have been a Knick instead of Shumpert…
    +hundreds of other names
    Stats are good
    but not enough..

    I don’t think anybody is making the argument that NBA players are just walking WS48 generators, and that you can just plug in last year’s numbers into some big calculator and tell exactly what every team’s record is going to be. I mean, come on now. This conversation is drifting into the realm of something rather dumb.

    If the goal is to be as good as possible in order to try and impress free agents (which I think is dumb but whatever), giving up a good player and one of our only young, cost-controlled, and potentially improving players for an undoubtably terrible player is not consistent with that goal.

    I don’t want to get into a whole back and forth about Derrick Rose’s value as a basketball player, but here’s why 100% adherence to statistics in evaluating players fails to fully account for player value:

    Despite the fact that Rose has been an inefficient scorer since his injury, he still does things unaccounted for by statistics such as eFG and TS that will have palpable positive effects on our team. First, Rose is still highly capable of pushing the ball up the court off of rebounds and turnovers. This is something none of our point guards last year were able to do effectively and will open up the court while also allowing us to get into our sets earlier/before the defense can get set. Second, Rose is still effective and prolific when it comes to beating his man off the dribble and getting into the lane. Per http://basketball-players.pointafter.com/l/383/Derrick-Rose, Rose shot 59% on shots under 4 feet away from the basket, so he still has the ability to finish at the rim.

    Finally, and this has been mentioned by Jared Dubin on his podcast many times, Rose will be a sort of test-drive of Hornacek’s system with an attacking point guard. His style of play allows us to showcase the system to free agents (Westbrook and CP3).

    Is Rose the explosive, game-changing MVP? No. Can he still do things that will help our team and open up scoring opportunities for Melo and KP? Yes.

    If stats were showing the future CLEARLY then Leonard would have been no1 draft pick and Anthony Bennett would haven’t been drafted and Jimmy Butler would have been a Knick instead of Shumpert…
    +hunderds of other names
    Stats are good
    but not enough..

    knew your knicks,
    I think statistical analysis from college projecting to the pros is an entirely different discussion than statistical analysis based on past professional experience.
    The leap from college to pros, or even from the best European leagues, to the NBA is so enormous, it is incredibly difficult to get a read. There is a lot of art. Some players project well, and far outperform expectations. Some underperform.
    No one expected Michael Jordan to do what he did, college to pros.
    But after a year or two of professional ball, it becomes increasingly obvious that players’ past performance is a sound measure. From about 26 years of age and on, players largely are who they are.
    Certainly there are exceptions. I’m sure we all can find those, but generally past performance in the NBA is a good predictor of future performance.
    In the case of Noah and Rose, this task is made tougher because they each went through a couple years of injuries that virtually removed them from the game.
    In the case of Rose, his injuries went to the very core of his game, his knees, which could change what he is…although knowing how knee injuries play out it is best judged about two years from the injury. In the case of Noah, he’s an energy guy. I don’t think his injuries will affect him.
    In either case, you take a gamble: a bigger one with Rose; a smaller one with Noah. That Rose got a one year deal and Noah a four year deal gives you some understanding of the types of injuries from which they are recovering.

    Finally, and this has been mentioned by Jared Dubin on his podcast many times, Rose will be a sort of test-drive of Hornacek’s system with an attacking point guard. His style of play allows us to showcase the system to free agents (Westbrook and CP3).

    Is Rose the explosive, game-changing MVP? No. Can he still do things that will help our team and open up scoring opportunities for Melo and KP? Yes.

    1) That is quite the made-up narrative. Do you think that the Knicks are going to show Derrick Rose highlights to recruit free agents? God, I hope not.

    2) Why does Rose have to be the point guard that “opens up scoring opportunities?” What about the many, many possessions he will use that will end in missed shots and turnovers?

    The guys that were advocating Kawaii would have also been advocating Anthony Bennent, I agree with Frank O

    Despite the fact that Rose has been an inefficient scorer since his injury, he still does things unaccounted for by statistics such as eFG and TS that will have palpable positive effects on our team. First, Rose is still highly capable of pushing the ball up the court off of rebounds and turnovers. This is something none of our point guards last year were able to do effectively and will open up the court while also allowing us to get into our sets earlier/before the defense can get set. Second, Rose is still effective and prolific when it comes to beating his man off the dribble and getting into the lane. Per http://basketball-players.pointafter.com/l/383/Derrick-Rose, Rose shot 59% on shots under 4 feet away from the basket, so he still has the ability to finish at the rim.

    I like how one second you claim that statistical analysis doesn’t pick up everything that happens on the court (something I think most everyone would agree on) and then use a statistic, FG% within 4 feet of the basket, to prove your case. For what it’s worth, I’ve never heard of pointafter.com but according to NBA.com he shot 48% within 5 feet of the basket and 48% in the restricted area. According to basketball-reference.com he shot 51% within 3 feet of the basket.

    Oh, and NBA.com breaks down shooting number by shot type; Derrick Rose shot 49% on layups.

    Rose could very well get a lot of Kobe assists with KP and Melo and Noah around the basket. That could be a beastly front court.
    Frankly, that will be a tough match up for a lot of teams if KP progresses and Noah reverts to form.

    Noah was a beast on the boards, defensively and as a passer last season. He just couldn’t finish for shit with his shoulder issue. I find it more likely he’ll have a bounce back year than Rose. I’m more worried about the 3rd and 4th year of that contract than the actual AAV.

    @ 86 without knowing what the league average is for shots at the rim I have no idea if 59% is good or bad or average. What I do know is that same website showed Iman Shumpert at 61%. Also just below it had on off number for the bulls and every single one was worse or the same on offense and defense with Rose on the court.

    @96 League average is around 60.5% at the rim, which is usually lower for guards so in theory 59% for Rose would be quite good, but it’s very unlikely the numbers on that website are right. The numbers in vincoug’s post @92 are definitely more accurate.

    On Durant: is it really going to be that interesting to watch them steamroll to a chip if that’s what happens? Seems Harlem Globetrotterish to me. If the playoff games are so lopsided I probably wouldn’t be bothered to even watch them. I am not here to watch “perfect basketball”. Were we riveted this year because of GSW’s beautiful ball as they ran over their opponents? No. We were riveted because the unexpected was happening both against OKC and CLE. We were riveted because there was drama. Look maybe they will be tested. But as someone said earlier we almost have to root for someone to get hurt to even out the odds. I personally am tempted to think that way. What’s so fascinating about watching NBA players shoot wide open 3’s if that ends up happening? I mean they are KD, Steph and Klay. They are supposed to hit wide open 3’s. No. Personally I think this was a mistake, frankly, even worse than Lebron going to Miami because of the pure choke job that Durant pulled against the team he decided to go to. I mean OKC losing Game 6 was purely on him. Or wait… was that just a statistical anomaly and because he had a good series and if only Dion Waiters had played better then OKC would have won? And let me be clear. I am a fan of the players having the power and the choice. I am not a fan of the choice.

    On the Knicks: all I’ll say is no idea how this is going to turn out but I am going to root my ass off for Jo Noah. If he plays well we could be pretty good. That’s the lynchpin IMO.

    Also the ruff rydaz joke isn’t funny anymore.

    cgreene long time mostly listener out.

    2015-16
    Rose w/Butler off
    1 PPP, 51.4 TS
    Rose w/Butler on
    .93 PPP, 46.5 TS

    He just couldn’t finish for shit with his shoulder issue

    Noah’s shoulder injury happened in December and he missed the rest of the season. His inability to hit layups happened before the injury.

    Noah’s shoulder injury happened in December and he missed the rest of the season. His inability to hit layups happened before the injury.

    He tried playing through the shoulder injury before he sat out with it for a few weeks. Then he came back way too fast because the Bulls’ shit show of a medical staff said he was good to go and re-injured the shoulder in his 4th game back.

    He didn’t try to play for weeks with the injury, he played for three games.

    Yeah, let’s look at Rose’s on/off court stats!

    Net Pts per 100 possesions
    On court: -3.9
    Off court: +1.0

    Team eFG%
    On court: 48.0%
    Off court: 49.5%

    Opponent eFG%
    On court: 49.4%
    Off court: 47.6%

    Assisted FGs (my favorite)
    On court: 56%
    Off court: 61%

    The Bulls were worst in pretty much every category with Rose on the floor. Check it out.

    Noah’s inability to finish and his career high offensive rebound rate seem quite the paradox.

    Keep in mind that the sample is only 600 minutes last year.

    Yes, Kevin, you are right. We’ve been over those +/- stats and they are certainly poor indicators.

    As is pointed out multiple times every day on this board, Rose has sucked the last two seasons and there’s a very good possibility he will suck again next year.

    and i see alot of ppl mentioning how he clashed with butler’s playstyle and how they were running the offense through him and they just didn’t mesh…

    i mean we have carmelo anthony… is this really all that different with the supposed king of not meshing with everyone else….

    wow – Brandon Rush to the TWolves for 1 year 3.5 MM.
    And I thought Brandon Jennings for 1 year 5MM was a good deal.

    Brandon Rush is pretty good.

    Yes, Kevin, you are right. We’ve been over those +/- stats and they are certainly poor indicators.

    Then why did you post on/off stats with Rose and Butler? Just bored?

    1) That is quite the made-up narrative. Do you think that the Knicks are going to show Derrick Rose highlights to recruit free agents? God, I hope not.

    2) Why does Rose have to be the point guard that “opens up scoring opportunities?” What about the many, many possessions he will use that will end in missed shots and turnovers?

    1) The Knicks obviously aren’t going to show a Derrick Rose 16-17 highlight package to Russell Westbrook, but you can very easily imagine a scenario in which they show video of Rose operating out of a high pick and roll with KP as a screener and Melo and Lee spotting up on the wings to better demonstrate how effective he could be within our offense.

    2) Rose can and will likely be both the point guard that opens up scoring opportunities for others while also missing shots and turning the ball over. I’m not saying he’s going to be an all-star, I’m only saying you can’t just look at his TS, eFG, or WS/48 and conclude that he has absolutely no use on the basketball court.

    When I say “unaccounted for by statistics,” I do not mean that the statistics are completely wrong and that Rose is actually a good player. I instead mean that reading the stats and concluding that Rose has no value is an incomplete way of measuring his ability to contribute to our team.

    “is this really all that different with the supposed king of not meshing with everyone else”

    You mean Amar’e, right? Lead guards have a pretty good history with Melo.

    The worrying thing about Noah is last year was the fifth consecutive year his shooting numbers declined. Its not a good trend

    “Then why did you post on/off stats with Rose and Butler? Just bored?”

    To point out that Rose may have had difficulty on offense playing alongside another guard who scored from similar spots on the floor.

    Butler’s offensive game is primarily dribble penetration off screens from around the 3-point line.

    Also, a Chasson Randle update: 5-8 for 13 points in 22 minutes of play. I should also note that he now has 9 assists and 8 turnovers in two games thus far. He hasn’t been perfect, and maybe it’s just the Stanford fan in me, but I would love to see him get an invite to training camp and get a look as a scoring guard off the bench who can push the ball, get to the basket, and shoot (38.6 3P% and .566 TS across his 4 year career at Stanford).

    To point out that Rose may have had difficulty on offense playing alongside another guard who scored from similar spots on the floor.

    Well, the overall on/off court stats suggested the entire team had difficulty playing along side Rose, right?

    i mean we have carmelo anthony… is this really all that different with the supposed king of not meshing with everyone else….

    Yeah, it’s different because Melo is comfortable spotting up off the ball and Butler isn’t.

    I find it funny that when Melo was going to join the Bulls all the pieces were such a good fit together, but now that Rose is joining him in New York their play styles don’t mesh together. Melo played fine with Allen Iverson in Denver. I’m not sure why he’s going to be really unhappy playing next to Derrick Rose.

    He didn’t try to play for weeks with the injury, he played for three games.

    Not what I gathered when I read BlogABull, but I could be wrong. Do you have links to it?

    Well, the overall on/off court stats suggested the entire team had difficulty playing along side Rose, right?

    Wouldn’t you need to compare the numbers to when he was off the floor, to when he was on the floor to Butler and then to when he was on the floor without Butler to get a better idea? His on/off splits aren’t hard to imagine being poor considering that he probably played a lot of minutes with Butler as they were both starters and as has been noted they didn’t complement each other well.

    He worrying thing about Noah is last year was the fifth consecutive year his shooting numbers declined. Its not a good trend

    It is worrying, but the decline last season seemed like an aberration more than a normal progression of that trend. Maybe I’m just being optimistic because I love Noah and he’s now a Knick, but it’s especially weird given that he was really good defensively and as a rebounder.

    Melo set his career high in TS (before he could reliably shoot 3s) and offensive rebound rate with Iverson, the only true penetration guard he’s ever played with.

    They were a pretty unconventional but lethal pnr combo.

    What I see is 8 of the top 10 lineups (for net pts per 100 poss.) have Butler on them…

    I’m just trying to figure out your line of thinking here. Is it really that Rose sucked because he had to play beside Jimmy Butler?

    Yes, you are looking at 5 man combinations. If you look at 3 and 4 man combos, there were some really successful ones with Rose on the court and Butler off of it.

    Both players played poorly with each on the floor. Butler is a much better player, so he’s still good with Rose on it.

    Rose was actually pretty good with Butler off the floor, and the Bulls were pretty good, too.

    Thanks Lavor. Where do you get the league average from? Will I be embarrassed at how obvious the answer is?

    @96 League average is around 60.5% at the rim, which is usually lower for guards so in theory 59% for Rose would be quite good, but it’s very unlikely the numbers on that website are right. The numbers in vincoug’s post @92 are definitely more accurate.

    Id be worried about rose if we had him for more than 1 yr. As it stands we can take him off the books and chase an actual elite pg next year.

    More excited about Jennings this year TBH. Hope he ends up eith more minutes than Rose.

    Yes, you are looking at 5 man combinations. If you look at 3 and 4 man combos, there were some really successful ones with Rose on the court and Butler off of it.

    You are looking at 3 and 4 man rotations, dude. Who do you think the guy not listed is? Most likely Jimmy Butler for the majority of the minutes. I mean, look at Butler’s on/off team stats. The Bulls were significantly worse without him on the floor.

    Ruru isn’t it possible that he is rebounding his own misses?

    Noah’s inability to finish and his career high offensive rebound rate seem quite the paradox.

    Keep in mind that the sample is only 600 minutes last year.

    I’m not trying to be snarky, but that was what I thought when someone mentioned those numbers last week.

    Yes, correct. Here’s the funny thing: all of above can be and are true.

    The Bulls, overall, were much better with Butler on the floor. The Bulls were bad with Rose on the floor.

    The Bulls were really bad with both Rose and Butler on the floor.

    The Bulls were really good with Butler, and not Rose, on the floor.

    The Bulls were ok with Butler off the floor and Rose on it.

    “Ruru isn’t it possible that he is rebounding his own misses?”

    Yeah, for sure, and most guys who are really good at that are great quick jumpers, like Melo. That’s athleticism.

    “So I guess we shouldn’t be using on/off court plus minus to make conclusions, right?”

    Uh, does not deduce.

    Because there are scenarios that defy the overall conclusion does not mean either lacks merit.

    Uh, does not deduce.

    Because there are scenarios that defy the overall conclusion does not mean either lacks merit.

    And I thought we were getting somewhere…

    interesting nbawowy stats.

    disclaimer – I am looking at 12/10/15 onward — reason for that date is I believe that was the first game that Rose was allowed to play without the mask and that his vision was normal.

    Rose+Butler on floor –> 1067 minutes
    – Rose: 26 usage, TS 48.7, 0.97 PPP
    – Butler: 22 usage, TS 52.7, 1.1 PPP

    + Rose, no Butler –> 465 minutes
    – Rose 31.7 usage, TS 53.6, PPP 1.03

    +Butler, no Rose –> 700 minutes
    – Butler 31.5 usage, TS 57.7, PPP 1.15

    So it looks like there really is something to the notion the two just couldn’t play well together.

    Both were better with the other off the floor. And not that small a sample size.

    My sense is this is because neither Rose nor Butler are particularly good outside shooters — so when they’re replaced by Aaron Brooks (37% career 3P%) or ETwaun Moore (shot 45% from 3 last year), there’s more room for Rose or Butler to do their thing than when both Rose/Butler are on the floor.

    Those 5 man samples are very small compared to the 4 and 3 man samples.

    I don’t think you understand the concept of the 3 and 4 man rotation stats… They do nothing to separate out any effects of Rose and Butler playing together since they include the minutes they played together.

    i realize there’s a case to be made with rose and melo not being as bad as butler/rose… but the point was to highlight whether they can definitely augment each other…. and they could… but i don’t think that’s some obvious thing where you can assume it to be true….

    the iverson situation is a comparable just due to the situations and somewhat close in playstyles… but there is a big difference… iverson was shooting a lot more than rose ever was… probably around solo kobe levels of volume shooting on the sixers… and when you go from there to a more normal 1st/2nd banana shot distribution you’re going to get more efficient based off of that alone no matter who your teammates are… same thing with happened with kobe…

    in any case… it could go either way…. but it’s not like derrick rose is all of a sudden going to make things better by simply being able to drive to the hoop better than calderon….. he can’t really shoot 3s so he hurts spacing…. he’s had declining assist rates on top of his declining ftr… so even if he does help on the dribble drive portion of his game he’s taking things off the table in other parts…

    and it’s not entirely obvious that outweighs everything else….

    This board treats stats the way Donald Trump treats Mexico. Either wall them off entirely as an imminent threat to humanity or search high and low through the taco bowl until you finally find one you like and say, Cheese! I love statistics!!

    It’s also worth pointing out that the bulls have really talented players. If you take rose and 3 random players on the bulls, you probably have 3 players who would be a plus with anyone. Perhaps in spite of having rose.

    You can make a list of reasons to believe that these players will play better as a group next year (new coach, better chemistry, star history) or a list of reasons for the reverse (recent injury history, age, awful efficiency from top paid players near the rim).

    If you just list the points on one side coin, they sound compelling, but if you list them alongside one another, I at least find it hard to make any grounded argument that one outweighs the other.

    And even if you say, these guys as a group will contribute 50% more wins than their win shares last year, you end up with this:

    Melo: 6.4 wins
    Thomas: 1.7 wins
    O’Quinn: 1.6 wins
    Porzingis: 4.3 wins
    Galloway: 3.3 wins
    Noah: 1.1 wins
    Rose: 0.4 wins
    Holiday: 0.6 wins
    Lee: 3.9 wins
    Jennings: 1.5 wins
    other guys: say, 5 wins generously?

    Total: 29.8 wins * 1.5 = 44.7 wins

    Even if you say Win Shares and last year’s numbers are both really unfair to the Knicks, isn’t giving last year’s #s a +50% handicap enough to make up for that supposed unfairness? Yet you still end up just barely scratching into the playoffs.

    Well, Team Pangloss will tell you that Rose and Noah will likely put up way more Win Shares than a combined 1.5, and they might very well be right. I’m obviously a major skeptic of the Phil Jackson Knicks, but even I can see a scenario where everything goes right and the offense is roughly middle of the pack and the defense ranks somewhere in the 10-15 range, which would probably roughly equate to a mid-40’s number of wins depending on Pythag luck.

    The problem is, that’s a crummy upside for a “win now” team with star players who are likely to decline in subsequent seasons.

    So, everything goes right the Knicks tap out at 45 wins and a top 15 defense.

    Ok then.

    If you assume Rose and Noah are going to combine for half as many win shares as Amar’e Stoudemire during his absolute worst season on the Knicks… I don’t know what to tell you. There’s pessimism, and then there’s… that.

    Guys, guys, guys – no need for namecalling. You’re both morons for caring about this franchise in the first place

    The Kobe Assist, secret weapon of the 2016-2017 Knicks.

    This made me chuckle a few days ago. Here is KP on Rose:

    One thing I’m already imagining, he’s a point guard that loves to drive and he’s explosive. After he misses layups I can get those putbacks. That’s one thing I’m thinking about already

    KP is ready for the Kobe asts.

    Legion Hoops
    ?@LegionHoops
    Former Knicks guard Langston Galloway is nearing an agreement with the Pelicans, reports ESPN.

    I don’t see why it is a bad thing that our best case scenario is somewhere between 42-48 wins. That would be a 10-16 (!!) win improvement over the previous year. I have to believe that the plan is to sell our team next year to Russell Westbrook or Chris Paul. I realize that this has been our plan in summers past and it has not worked out, but I also think that it’s much easier to sell these guys on a mid-40s win team with an established star in Melo, a rising star in KP, and valuable role players in Noah, Lee, and Lance Thomas.

    Latke, take your wins produced calculation and replace Rose’s .4 with Westbrook’s 14.0 and you get a 65 win team. Replace Rose with Chris Paul and you get 63 wins. I realize your not expecting Westbrook and Paul to improve, so the numbers without adjusting their totals by 1.5 are 58 and and 56, respectively. KP would also then be in his 3rd year and the league and hopefully really coming into his own.

    So yes, we’re looking at a mid-40 win team this year, but it will be a mid-40 in team with upside (Porzingis, also our 2017 draft pick) that we could sell to Westbrook and Paul at a time when player movement seems more likely than ever. It might not work, but I’m alright with trying.

    don’t see why it is a bad thing that our best case scenario is somewhere between 42-48 wins. That would be a 10-16 (!!) win improvement over the previous year. I have to believe that the plan is to sell our team next year to Russell Westbrook or Chris Paul.

    So our team sucked last year, this year it might suck marginally less, and if we manage to add a first ballot HOFer to next year’s roster, we might be contenders. Cool

    Melo: 6.4 wins
    Thomas: 1.7 wins
    O’Quinn: 1.6 wins
    Porzingis: 4.3 wins
    Galloway: 3.3 wins
    Noah: 1.1 wins
    Rose: 0.4 wins
    Holiday: 0.6 wins
    Lee: 3.9 wins
    Jennings: 1.5 wins
    other guys: say, 5 wins generously?

    Total: 29.8 wins * 1.5 = 44.7 wins

    Even if you say Win Shares and last year’s numbers are both really unfair to the Knicks, isn’t giving last year’s #s a +50% handicap enough to make up for that supposed unfairness? Yet you still end up just barely scratching into the playoffs.

    I’m trying not to be mean, but this is just a totally pointless exercise.

    1) you’re not even controlling for minutes played. Of course Noah only contributed 1.1 wins. He only played 600 minutes. Seriously, if you added up all the minutes played, it’d be like 65 total games. Winning 44.7 games out of 65 probably would be considered good.

    2) teammates do matter. Just a quick example. Boobie Gibson had 2.4 win shares in 2010-11 and then 0.5 win shares in 2011-12. Did he turn into 20% the player he used to be? Of course not. He stopped playing next to Lebron. Kyrie Irving had 6.7 win shares in 2013-14, and 10.4 win shares in 2014-15. Did he suddenly improve by 60%? No, he started playing next to Lebron.

    no one knows what’s going to happen this season.
    knicks could be bad because Rose could be bad and Noah could be washed up and get injured.

    knicks could be ok because one of the two could be good and the other bad.

    knicks could be good because both could return to form.

    trying to quantify it with last season’s irrelevant stats is, shall we say, not a rigorous use of statistics.

    Ruru doesn’t care about the Knicks. He only cares about one thing, and that’s the legacy and reputation of Carmelo Anthony. If Melo got traded away tomorrow, he’d be the resident optimist on the message board of whatever team Melo got traded to.

    Yeah I don’t think the 1.5 multiplier really works as an upside scenario because for better or worse (for worse is the correct answer) two of the guys we’re counting on most heavily didn’t produce anything last year. Rose and Noah playing in a way that is not at all related to how they played last year is the upside scenario. That may not be likely, but that’s what we’re going for.

    Between trading both Lopez and Grant, giving out questionable big contracts that are on the books post-Melo, and now letting Galloway walk, it sure seems like Phil is hellbent on undoing the relatively small number of decent things he has done in his time here.

    Really sad to see Galloway go. I think he’s probably a third guard long-term, but he seemed like a great kid and one we found on the scrap heap and I’ll never forget the first stretch of last season where it seemed like he was really turning into a player. Not a fan of just letting him walk.

    The Kobe Assist, secret weapon of the 2016-2017 Knicks.

    This made me chuckle a few days ago. Here is KP on Rose:

    One thing I’m already imagining, he’s a point guard that loves to drive and he’s explosive. After he misses layups I can get those putbacks. That’s one thing I’m thinking about already

    KP is ready for the Kobe asts.

    KP has no illusions about this team.

    Optimistic take: our boy understands productive / unproductive ball.

    Pessimistic take: our boy understands that he’s never going to win here and we lose him as soon as his contract expires

    trying to quantify it with last season’s irrelevant stats is, shall we say, not a rigorous use of statistics.

    Dude, if you want to argue that players will outperform their most recent numbers due to the synergistic magic of Carmelo Anthony feel free. But to call last season’s data “irrelevant” is a far more extreme position than any resident “stat head” has ever put forth. I totally believe that player’s performances can vary based on their teammates, but there are also some players who just suck. Derrick Rose looks very much like one of those players, and as others have pointed out it’s not like his Bulls were totally devoid of talent. They probably had more of it than the 2016-2017 Knicks.

    Shame about Langstarr. Mostly for sentimental reasons, but also because he was a cheap young player entering his prime, whom we discovered. For that discovery alone, we should have realized some kind of benefit.

    On the other hand, he refused a longer term deal. Kid bet on himself and won. More power to him

    Interesting to see Landry fields on the Warriors summer league roster.. Almost forgot about him since he went across the border.. Peaked in his rookie season statistically if I rember correctly ??

    I’m trying not to be mean, but this is just a totally pointless exercise.

    You’re not being mean, you’re pointing out how irrational looking at numbers can sometimes be. By using last year’s WS, do you all realize that Calderon with 4.0 was better than Noah 1.1, Rose 0.4 and Jennings 1.4 combined? Useless numbers without context.

    I’ll miss Langston. But now we have Ron Baker and possibly Chasson Randle. I didn’t see Randle play today but he reminded me of Mike Conley yesterday. He totally changed the game when he came in. And Baker is very similar to Langston, only worse (so far) at shooting. Hopefully it comes around because he is tough! How did Baker look today?

    i will say that if noah can maintain his 2014-2015 self then cp3 or westbrook will push us well into the 50win range.. i think we might even be 60 depending on how far kp progresses this year….

    I think it’s worth mentioning that Noah has averaged ~62 game a year even counting last season. And if he’s as good a defensive anchor as he’s supposed to be (plus dumping Calderon, Vujacic, Afflalo and picking up Lee) everybody’s DWS should be up. Not saying that outpaces the 1.5 multiplier you put in, but it wouldn’t be that farfetched to have a huge improvement if our defense improves significantly.

    It’s too bad we didn’t lockup Galloway earlier. I think he projects as a good backup, possibly great if he can improve his 3p%, but he’s not a pg and we needed a pg (still probly need one).

    If Noah can play 2000 minutes and hes not completely cooked he will be much more productive than he was last year. Rose? I have no idea. Langston is probably going to outproduce the guards we replaced him with and the guards we traded to get Rose and we let him walk away for nothing. But the important thing is that we’ve got a good culture here now.

    I think Phil did a good job totally remaking the roster with keeping flexibility intact.

    He realized he had maybe the worst starting back court in the NBA. Calderon (the reluctant 3 point specialist) couldn’t initiate the offense. He didn’t threaten any defense. Didn’t make any players around him better by challenging the defense. Aflallo was not good in any area for a statring NBA player.

    He surveyed the situation, had Grant for a year and watched him daily and wasn’t impressed and saw many bigs he could potentially land and no back court players he wanted (Conley for the max, Batum, Fournier for 85M) and chose to trade for Rose with his one year contract and sign Noah.

    Of course it is a little risky with Noah, but his injuries aren’t career threatening types. Remember 4 years ago Pau Gasol looked completely done in LA with a barking knee and returned to have 2 terrific seasons with Chicago.

    Noah besides being a top defender and a way better player than Rolo if he has a pulse, is a great rebounder and passer making him the prototypical Triangular center. He doesn’t need to play 3000 minutes and when Rose is off the floor they can run the offense through him.

    Rose, by virtue of his ability to penetrate is going to have a positive effect on the efficiency of Melo, Porzingis and Lee.

    The Knicks are arguably significantly better at all 5 positions this coming year. Melo should be better a year removed from a significant surgery, porzingis by virtue of being a year older and the 3 additions are better than the players they replaced .

    Should Rose suck, 40+M in cap space next year. I don’t see Noah’s health issues as that serious.

    if you split the difference between their year last year and their last good year…. and plug in 1800 minutes for each… we’re around 40-42 wins….

    so in order for us to get to 48…. one of them has to reach 2400 minutes AND something like .180 ws48s…. if you assume their mvp or dpoy version of themselves… we’re basically like those thibs bulls teams …

    Tommy Beer tweeting that signing Galloway would have eaten into next year’s cap and that it’s crucial to retain at least $31M in cap space for next year, possibly for Westbrook..

    Good thing we signed Noah and Lee instead of keeping Galloway and Rolo-need us that space for next year!

    Yeah I’m not convinced that Jennings or Rose will be a net plus over their history of terrible efficiency, but I do think it counts for something to have actual pg’s on the roster.

    I liked Langston Galloway, he had a positive attitude and it was a feel good D-League story. And I would have liked to keep him, but I’m not going to lose sleep over him going elsewhere. Be honest, if you were a fan of another team and watched him 5-6 times a year, you’d barely notice the guy.

    He’s highly replaceable.

    Bob, Phil traded for Calderon and signed Arron Afflalo. There’s nothing particularly brilliant about puttting together a bad backcourt. The backcourt probably would have been better if we’d just rolled with Grant and Galloway from day 1, but we were pursuing mediocrity and keeping cap space.

    FWIW Ron Baker today – 8-15 for 22 pts, 9 boards, 5 assists, 5 steals

    I have to believe that the plan is to sell our team next year to Russell Westbrook or Chris Paul. I realize that this has been our plan in summers past and it has not worked out, but I also think that it’s much easier to sell these guys on a mid-40s win team.

    The obvious problem with this plan is that there are, once again, 29 other teams with cap space next summer.

    Add to that the fact that Westbrook is either going to extend or be traded before next summer, effectively taking him out of New York.

    Leaving Chris Paul, whose max contract would read $35,000,000/$36,750,000/$38,580,000/$40,500,000. That’s for his 32-36 year old self, which, given his size and fair share of injuries, could turn sour real fast.

    Past those two, who is option #3 at PG in the 2017 free agent class? Unfortunately, from the way things may be shaping out (dis-including RFAs and guys like Steph Curry), the third highest rated PG available next summer may very well be Derrick Rose.

    This “wait until next year to buy the best players off of other teams” mentality has got to stop at some point, right?

    “FWIW Ron Baker today – 8-15 for 22 pts, 9 boards, 5 assists, 5 steals”

    The new Langston!

    Randle has looked very good too.

    But there I go being foolishly optimistic again when pessimism is so much easier.

    This is why you never should go to an after season camp with Phil.

    Bob, Phil traded for Calderon and signed Arron Afflalo.

    Correct DRed!

    However, he signed Aflallo purely as a one year stop gap. Calderon was part of removing Chandler who wanted a long term deal and had laid down previously and was on the verge of being done. Should he have gotten more than Larkin, 2 #2’s and Calderon, probably.

    The “point guards” he inherited were Ray Felton and Prigoni…. not Magic and Stockton. He tried swapping THJr for Grant…. had a year to evaluate Grant and thought this was a better strategy. Clearly, he wasn’t impressed with Grant as a cheap longer term option. I hope he knows more about it than some here :-0

    Phil has brought us Hornacek, Rose, Holiday, Noah, Lee, Jennings, Hernangomez, Kuz, Baker, Randle and Plumlee in just over a month! Looks like a great haul!

    Add to that the fact that Westbrook is either going to extend or be traded before next summer, effectively taking him out of New York.

    Why would he being traded take him off the market next season unless he was traded to a place he wants to go and agrees to stay and extend?

    cp3 is a great player… and great players tend to age well.. as long as he doesn’t crater this year i’d feel entirely comfortable giving him the max and i’d give him 5 if i could… he’s a lot closer to john stockton than derrick rose…

    his ws48 during his clipper tenure is .270… that’s a level only curry has surpassed in the last year… in his most injury plagued year he was still at .204 which is about as good as kyle lowry’s peak….

    the only thing is whether or not he would make us a contender…. but if we do fall in the 42 win range then i think that’s enough to make us one….

    Why does everyone insist that there is one plane for roster construction?

    Tough to see some of our heart go out the door… we get some in return, but always hard to let go… especially when we’ve had so few bright spots… I know Langston had / has a lot of pride in the jersey he wears… and i think the same could be said for RoLo… I have no doubt Noah will bring it but not so sure about the rest of em… Can’t wait to see this new team play regardless… I have the itch real bad

    Bobneptune,
    I agree with your points. I also think that the second unit is better. Jennings, Holiday, Thomas and O’Quinn are a really good start. I’m not going to evaluate Willie “Call me Billy” Hernangomez or Mindaugas Kuzminskas because I want to see them against NBA players first.

    We could use another big, a legit scorer now. I see a bunch of those guys out there on the wire still: Anderson Varejao, David Lee, Jason Thompson, Amare Stoudemire, Marreese Speights, Donatas Motiejunas, Udonis Haslem, Tyler Hansbrough, Matt Bonner and Chris Andersen are all out there as well as Boban Marjanovic!

    Sad to see Galloway go but he’s not a difference maker. I did think he was a good 5th guard since he could run the point and also play off-guard. But he can easily be replaced.

    of course last year’s stats are relevant in a way.
    But to include 20 games of Noah, 5 minutes of holiday, different teams, different systems, different roles and then mash them all together to claim some statistical prediction- that’s really not a rigorous use of statistics.

    No use of statistics is rigorous enough for you, Frank.

    When did Holiday turn into a legit back up. I must have missed that season or is his fans basing this of of a few games in april? Maybe it’s because he has above average height for a 2 guard.

    No use of statistics is rigorous enough for you, Frank.

    That might be because part of what I do for a living is evaluate statistics.

    The guys who create the “advanced stats” that the lay public is actually given access to would probably be the first to tell you they are woefully inadequate at best, and totally misleading at worst.

    When did Holiday turn into a legit back up.

    He’s going to compete for a rotation spot. He plays defense. He can have good games. We can do better – and worse.

    That might be because part of what I do for a living is evaluate statistics.

    The guys who create the “advanced stats” that the lay public is actually given access to would probably be the first to tell you they are woefully inadequate at best, and totally misleading at worst.

    Do you think that TS%, which is hardly an “advanced stat,” is totally misleading?

    Why would he being traded take him off the market next season unless he was traded to a place he wants to go and agrees to stay and extend?

    Well, I can think of about about $40,000,000 reasons, which is the amount that that team can offer him more than the Knicks can. (If you don’t believe me, just ask Mike Conley, Demar DeRozan, Bradley Beal, etc…)

    But, sure, keep putting all eggs into the clear cap space for LeBron James/Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook/Chris Pauls of the league. Someday it might actually work. (Like when Bryce Maximus James comes off of his rookie deal in 2032 perhaps?)

    When did Holiday turn into a legit back up.

    He was brought in to attract Jrue, who is a free agent PG next summer. Duh!

    We heard the “Chris Paul is coming here” talk the last time the Knicks put together an ill-considered win-now team. Maybe this time Lucy won’t pull the football away.

    Since we are changing the team name to NY Doctors, I think Phil should give Chris Andersen a Call

    He can still be productive in spot minutes.

    But, sure, keep putting all eggs into the clear cap space for LeBron James/Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook/Chris Pauls of the league. Someday it might actually work. (Like when Bryce Maximus James comes off of his rookie deal in 2032 perhaps?)

    It’s pretty brilliant from an excuse standpoint, though. “You can’t judge Jackson’s moves until 2015!” Then it’s “You can’t judge Jackson’s moves until 2016.” Now it’s “You can’t judge Jackson’s moves until 2017!” Just keep punting cap space and you can always say, “Trust me, next year will be the good year.”

    What about Gerald Green? He seems like a decent player that could be had for around the vet minimum. He played well under Hornacek and after losing his spot in Miami’s rotation last year doesn’t seem to have too many suitors. Add him and maybe offer a flyer to Terrence Jones, I’ve also heard no buzz about him. He always seemed productive in Houston. Would the remainder of the room exemption be enough?

    Well, I can think of about about $40,000,000 reasons, which is the amount that that team can offer him more than the Knicks can. (If you don’t believe me, just ask Mike Conley, Demar DeRozan, Bradley Beal, etc…)

    Al Horford and Kevin Durant eschewed more money to stay with their teams……

    What about Gerald Green? He seems like a decent player that could be had for around the vet minimum.

    Nah,

    Gerald Green sucks.

    He only plays well against us.

    Do you think that TS%, which is hardly an “advanced stat,” is totally misleading?

    No I think TS is fine. I’m talking about the all-in-one stats, trying to make heads or tails of lineup data, even sportvu data which is basically a firehose of stuff that teams are probably still struggling with. Lumping all-in-one stats between teams and years and roles would be thrown out of any even minimally respectable statistician’s office.

    Smart NBA teams are, I would guess, light years beyond what is publicly accessible. Look at this article about what the Raptors were doing 3 years ago. God knows what they’re doing now.

    To be clear about TS- I think it’s a valid stat. But whether it means everything some people think it means in a team sport is unclear. For instance, Calderon has pretty much figured out how to be the lowest turnover guy by basically never throwing a pass that has any chance of being picked off- which in turn might result in an inefficient possession for someone else. All those pocket passes Nash threaded through traffic to Amare wouldn’t even be considered by Calderon. On offense he refuses to shoot unless completely wide open, which while good for his own stats, might lead to someone else having to jack up a worse shot than Calderon passed up.

    Now Calderon might be the extreme outlier but as you’ve said before, it’s only a couple plays or shots per game that differentiates the great from the mediocre.

    Al Horford and Kevin Durant eschewed more money to stay with their teams……

    Horford wasn’t actually offered the max from ATL. They asked him to take less after they signed Howard.

    And as for Durant, unless Noah and Rose lead NY to 73 wins next year, I don’t think that comp is terribly relevant.

    I don’t see why it is a bad thing that our best case scenario is somewhere between 42-48 wins. That would be a 10-16 (!!) win improvement over the previous year.

    Context matters. If your goal is to possess $1,000,000, and you take out loans and max your credit cards so your bank account says $600,000, you’re not helping yourself. I’m not saying the Knicks have gone to that extreme, but I do think nearly all the improvement in this best case scenario will have to be paid back with interest.

    As far as the free agent thing goes, it smells like a fantasy to me. I see top FAs go to top teams or teams with supreme combos of financial flexibility and youth/cheap contracts (i.e. 2012 Rockets, who wooed Dwight). The cost of this approach is yet another wasted year plus plugged up cap room for more years after that. There is no long term downside to making future thinking moves and IMO those moves are more likely to yield a star FA in the long term.

    Frank: I’m trying not to be mean, but this is just a totally pointless exercise.

    My point with the post was that you can slice and dice stats and only comment on the upside and frame the situation to look positive, or you can do the reverse and only frame things to look negative. If you want to be generous without getting out of control, why not say, “Okay, let’s take last season’s stats as a whole and say they don’t do the team justice but also restrain ourselves by saying at best, if most of the things I’m hoping for happen, we’ll do 50% better than those numbers say.”

    I can adjust for minutes if you want, but it’s not going to be much prettier. If you give my 5 WS bench 3000 minutes, you’re only about 2k minutes short of a full season’s minutes.

    It’s pretty brilliant from an excuse standpoint, though. “You can’t judge Jackson’s moves until 2015!” Then it’s “You can’t judge Jackson’s moves until 2016.” Now it’s “You can’t judge Jackson’s moves until 2017!” Just keep punting cap space and you can always say, “Trust me, next year will be the good year.”

    As an addendum, advanced stats are so bad that they’re either woefully inadequate or totally misleading, so we can’t evaluate Phil’s decisions based on… well, anything, really.

    It’s funny how when the Knicks lost their best player over three years, according to WP48 and WS48, the Knicks also had a lower win total…

    It’s just as easy to say Westbrook won’t come here dismissively as it is to say he might come here optimistically. Here are the reasons I’m optimistic about Westbrook:

    There was a Woj report that the Knicks have a “real shot” at him in February i.e. before the KD trade.

    He’s a near lock to leave OKC with Durant gone and the west as tough as it is.

    The only team I see having the assets to trade for him and remain a contender is Boston. So that’s a real threat, but it’s also one team.

    Reports say he loves KP.

    He seems like a city kind of guy–fashion, personality, from LA. Conjecture I know, that’s ones just a feeling, but between us and LA I think we’re the better shot to win (easier conference).

    It’s way to early to just say he’ll never come here because no one has ever come here. LeBron said no to Amare and some unproven young guys. 2015 free agents said no to a 17 win team with no proven talent outside Melo. We will have a decent team with proven players (Melo, Noah, Lee) and a rising star.

    But of course this will all be discounted because it’s just conjecture.

    When Phil said he wanted to establish continuity I didn’t know he meant reshuffling the team every year with mediocre FAs in order to continuously relearn the triangle, heh

    Phil is stupid and bad at GMing until he signs Westbrook/CP3 those are the only redeeming long term decisions he could possibly make besides signing KP.

    To be clear about TS- I think it’s a valid stat. But whether it means everything some people think it means in a team sport is unclear. For instance, Calderon has pretty much figured out how to be the lowest turnover guy by basically never throwing a pass that has any chance of being picked off- which in turn might result in an inefficient possession for someone else.

    So you start with the presumption that Calderon’s passes might in turn result in an inefficient possession for someone else, but what makes other players impervious to this outcome? What is your presumption about Derrick Rose’s game that gives his passes a higher eFG% for the player on the receiving end of that pass?

    And oddly, why did Calderon have exactly number of assists per-36 as Derrick Rose while taking just 44% (!) as many FGA per-36? The question I might ask is why doesn’t Derrick Rose’s superior penetration help his teammates convert more FG opportunities? And what use is that penetration if Derrick Rose is himself taking the inefficient shot attempts, which seems a certainty given that he was one of the worst shooters in the entire league last year and the year before?

    Here’s an example of negative slicing and dicing:

    Rose and Noah both have injury histories that make it very unlikely they’ll ever be healthy and productive again. The same to a lesser degree can be said of Brandon Jennings.

    Melo has shown significant decline the last two seasons. I know you can say injuries, but bottom line, 32 year olds don’t tend to get healthier. They do, on the other hand, tend to get slower, which sucks for anyone hoping ot be productive from the perimeter.

    Key Knicks’ FG% in the paint last year was dismal. They might set a record for worst FG% in the paint. The only reason Rose gets to the paint is because defenses enjoy watching him miss layups as he cowers away from contact. Odds are adding him will reduce the number of open outside looks. At least with Calderon, defenses had to worry about stop and pops. Rose can’t make those anymore either. The best driver of this and last year’s Knicks combined will likely be the great Derrick Williams.

    Lance Thomas had 2/3s of a good season at age 27. The odds that he sustains that after his entire preceding career was awful are pretty damn low.

    Langston Galloway, now likely gone, was the Knicks best perimeter defender and given Lee’s age, will likely be the best perimeter defender of this and last year’s Knicks.

    It can be useful to slice and dice into stats, but at a certain point, when you start stacking assumption onto assumption and ignoring downsides (or upsides), you’re probably further from the truth than something as basic and hamfisted as pulling WS from last year.

    @SJK all the reports seem pretty confident the Thunder want to trade RWB now. Seems pretty likely that he’ll agree verbally to an extension before being traded. And the reason to be negative in general about FAs is simply because there are so few top players and they so rarely switch teams as FAs. KD, Dwight, LBJ, Aldridge. That makes 4 since the last CBA. Two joined recent NBA champions. One joined because of a personal history with the new team. One joined a team with a ton of young super cheap players and a rising superstar. None of those sound like the Knicks, and even if any did, it would still be a long shot.

    Langston Galloway, now likely gone, was the Knicks best perimeter defender and given Lee’s age, will likely be the best perimeter defender of this and last year’s Knicks.

    Last year’s other guards were Calderon, Afflalo and Vujacic, so that’s a really, really low bar

    Ok but it’s not as if he will agree to sign an extension with any team that trades for him, so which are the teams that can trade for Westbrook but still have enough productive players left to remain a contender after doing so? The only answer I came up with is Boston.

    You should also include Horford in your example of major FAs changing teams. In fact it’s worth while to note that of those 5, 3 happened this year and 1 happened last year along with another almost happening (DeAndre Jordan). So it’s possible that the current climate in the league is more conducive to guys wanting to team up together. Is it unreasonable to think that Westbrook would want to team up with Melo and KP? I don’t think so.

    If Westbrook doesn’t get traded, sure, I’d give the Knicks a chance of getting him. If he does get traded, then yeah, they’re kind of screwed.

    Look Jowles – I’m not saying TS% is always misleading or never useful. I’m just saying that there are some players who can “game” the commonly used statistical measures and so can be over- or under-valued by them. I am not making any presumptions. I’m just saying that a good TS% does not always equal good team offense. A bad TS% probably is not a good thing for a team, but it’s still possible for a player to have a positive impact on the team offense.

    There are inevitably going to be confounders when looking at individual stats in a team game.

    All I’m asking is for people to accept that there is some nuance. It’s not all just HORRIBLE or AWESOME!! That just because someone tore an ACL 5 years ago and had two meniscus surgeries, it doesn’t mean they’re doomed to be the player they were while recovering from injury — that we should ask more questions, get more information before ASSUMING we know anything.

    I don’t know if I’m older than most of the people here, but sometimes the posts here are just flash judgments based on cursory examination of evidence. HE HAD A KNEE INJURY! HE’S DOOMED. WAIT, WHAT WAS THE KNEE INJURY?

    The truth of it is — much of the time I agree with you. I DIDN’T LIKE THE ROSE TRADE. I’m just not as ready to write it off as “same old Knicks” without seeing at least, what, 10-20 games to see how it works out.

    If Westbrook doesn’t get traded, sure, I’d give the Knicks a chance of getting him. If he does get traded, then yeah, they’re kind of screwed.

    Depends on what team he goes to — and he’ll go to unrestricted FA anyway — no way he signs an extension before seeing what the market is and how the season goes.

    Are there more than a couple of people who supported the Rose trade?

    All of I’ve read or written is that it might not turn out so bad.

    Per Berman- Gallo to the Pelicans, his home town. Knicks offered 3mil, Pels 6 mil.

    Depends on what team he goes to — and he’ll go to unrestricted FA anyway — no way he signs an extension before seeing what the market is and how the season goes.

    No one is going to trade for him without assurances that he’ll resign, right (like the Clippers got from Chris Paul, as he didn’t sign an extension with the Clippers, either)? You’d have to be a fool to trade a lot to get him and face the same issue the Thunder are dealing with.

    That, though, is the Knicks’ one shot – that no one else will trade for him under those parameters.

    So we low balled a player who we could go over the cap to sign and we’re paying a 27 y/o LT who played well for half a season 28M over 4yr.

    Ok Phil.

    Knicks offered 3mil, Pels 6 mil.

    I don’t need a proprietary metric to tell me that shit is fucking pants on head stupid.

    1) Why can the Pels offer an opt-out but not the Knicks? Seems counter-intuitive. Even if the Knicks matched the dollar amount (2/12), I don’t blame Gallo for leaving if he had an opt-out the second year (though, the idea that the Knicks are ‘preserving cap space’ is BS to me. You could trade an even semi-productive rotation player on a 1 year/6 million contract in this environment. That’s annoying).

    2) Regardless of how you feel about the Knicks moves, the Bulls’ offseason should give us some perspective – the team has to find a way to dump money to throw a boatload of money at a superstar in decline. Isn’t it nice to see it somewhere else for once?

    No one is going to trade for him without assurances that he’ll resign, right (like the Clippers got from Chris Paul, as he didn’t sign an extension with the Clippers, either)? You’d have to be a fool to trade a lot to get him and face the same issue the Thunder are dealing with.

    That, though, is the Knicks’ one shot – that no one else will trade for him under those parameters.

    I don’t know man. If you’re Danny Ainge, aren’t you at least mulling the idea of going all in for a rental and betting on yourself? Is one year that much worse than two (like when the Clippers got CP3)? Success is fleeting in this league and one year of Westbrook is the type of gamble to make, IMO

    And Westbrook would be crazy to sign a contract midseason and give up his Hamptons interview rights next summer.

    yeah, can’t beleive the Bulls signed Rondo but it’s only 2 years and $14m per. Whose likely to be more productive next season, Rondo or Noah? I’d call it a coin flip (though if not for the contract lengths, I’d take Noah over Rondo for sure just because he’s not a dick.)

    All of I’ve read or written is that it might not turn out so bad.

    That’s wrong, though. If Derrick Rose, through a plausible combination of recovery from injury and a better fit with the Knicks plays much better than he did last season, the Knicks will win a few more games than if they hadn’t made the trade. But that won’t matter. And then Rose will be a free agent. That’s why that trade was stupid. You don’t need a sophisticated understanding of statistics and you don’t have to be an orthopedic surgeon to realize that was a sub optmial utilization of our assets. The Knicks took things that would have some future value and turned them into cap space, which they then used to fill the holes created by the trade. Poof.

    “a sub optimal utilization of our assets”

    who’s arguing to the contrary?

    yeah, can’t beleive the Bulls signed Rondo but it’s only 2 years and $14m per. Whose likely to be more productive next season, Rondo or Noah? I’d call it a coin flip (though if not for the contract lengths, I’d take Noah over Rondo for sure just because he’s not a dick.)

    I was referring to them going after Wade. Rondo-Wade-Butler-Mirotic?-Lopez is the type of fever dream that I only thought was possible from the minds of 4 Pennsylvania Plaza, but here we are..

    Last year’s other guards were Calderon, Afflalo and Vujacic, so that’s a really, really low bar

    He’s probably better than all the new guards too though. And cheaper. wait how does cap space work again?

    “Whose likely to be more productive next season, Rondo or Noah? I’d call it a coin flip”

    Ok, then the second question should go without asking, right?

    If Noah has a more productive season, it’s likely to be A LOT more productive.

    @SJK all the reports seem pretty confident the Thunder want to trade RWB now. Seems pretty likely that he’ll agree verbally to an extension before being traded.

    Well FFS… Presti should trade Westbrook immediately to the Knicks for the Knicks 2017 first round pick because all good analytical guys “know” all the Knicks’s moves are awful and the Knick’s will have the #1 pick in a stacked draft! 😛

    I wish the Knicks’ pick would be #1. That’s the annoying thing about these moves, that they’ll improve them just enough so that their pick will be around #15.

    And then they’ll need to trade it to make sure they maintain max cap space next offseason. 😉

    I think we’re going to end up offering Rose a 3 year deal and then we’ll go after JJ Reddick or Gordon Hayward.

    Book it. It just doesn’t seem likely to me that Derrick Rose has a major injury or puts up bad basic numbers that prevent him from a long term deal in New York. Westbrook sounds great but the Knicks probably aren’t smart enough to move on from the 2011 MVP to the 2017 MVP. I think we’ll much more likely sell to people that Rose is healthy and his 18 and 8 a night proves he can play well and healthy for a three year deal. Then we’ll try to get a 6th man in the draft or something.

    I don’t know man. If you’re Danny Ainge, aren’t you at least mulling the idea of going all in for a rental and betting on yourself? Is one year that much worse than two (like when the Clippers got CP3)? Success is fleeting in this league and one year of Westbrook is the type of gamble to make, IMO

    Possibly, but in that scenario, if Westbrook approves said trade, how does he leave then? I think any Westbrook deal sinks the Knicks. If he stays put, though, I think they have at least a puncher’s chance.

    Goodbye Gallo. We don’t deserve you. Thanks for quietly saving us/Phil from Okafor by playing 48 minutes to beat a Spurs lineup of Kawhi-Duncan-Parker-Green-Splitter to get us to win #14 in 2015. Unfortunately, we only contract with counterparties who will enter their 30s during the deal term. See you in 2022!

    Possibly, but in that scenario, if Westbrook approves said trade, how does he leave then? I think any Westbrook deal sinks the Knicks. If he stays put, though, I think they have at least a puncher’s chance.

    Happened with Dwight in LA. I said the Celtics because I’m not sure how the Knicks have anything close to what would be a desirable package for the Thunder.

    It would have to include Rose + KP after which I would promptly quit rooting for the franchise

    Thank god that’s not happening, though.

    If the Knicks trade KP for Russ (who is obviously a superstar but has a game primed to breakdown in 2-3 years) I am out on this fucking franchise. The mere thought of it is getting me as angry as some of the posters here, LOL

    The Knicks will never trade Kristaps Porzingis. Why would Westbrook be cool with a trade to New York under those circumstances when Westbrook, by all accounts, loves Porzingis?

    Why do u ppl keep saying that the Knicks will do this? This shit is masochism

    Yeah idk, it’s a hypothetical not worth getting riled up on. I don’t see Russ getting traded anywhere right now because I’m not sure where he could get traded (given that the team would have to dump all of their assets to get him and he’d probably have to agree to extend for them to trade for him) that would put him in a better situation than OKC sans-KD. They’re totally capable of winning 50-55 games this year.

    And next year? I think he could totally sign with the Knicks, though I think we’ll end up getting CP3.

    Again for perspective:

    On the night of July 6th, 2016 I’d much rather be a Knicks fan than a Bulls or Heat fan. WOW, hahaha. Wonder what they’re gonna have to give up to trade Calderon + Dunleavy.

    The Cavs are reportedly trying to trade Kevin Love, Iman Shumpert, and draft picks to Sacramento for the 3rd splash brother, DeMarcus Cousins and Ben McLemore.

    If that happens, that’s not a good move for the Cavs. At all.

    Where are you seeing these Boogie rumors? That would be great for the Cavs, what are you smoking?

    Love has been exposed and Boogie would punish the Warriors. The way to beat the Warriors coming up is going to be on the glass

    I saw it on Twitter, but when I cross referenced it on google I realized it was phony.

    Dwyane Wade has agreed to sign with the Chicago Bulls on a two-year, $47 million deal.

    Wow that is stupid.

    Rondo, Wade, and Butler is a really bad trio if 3pt shooters. If it wasn’t for Rondo I would suggest Wade taking over for Rose and call it an upgrade. Financially it would still suck but skill wise broken down Wade is still better than Rose.

    Well at least its a team full of Swizz Beats, Eve, DMX, Drag-on, and Lox.

    The lunatics are running the asylum over in Chicago

    Remember a week ago when someone tried to tell me that the Bulls were a well run Franchise lol

    So if Wade goes to Chicago, who are the playoff locks in the East?

    Cleveland
    Boston
    Toronto
    Indiana

    After that it’s pretty wide open

    I wouldn’t put Indiana as a lock, either. Lots of open room in the East.

    I don’t know anyone can sit back during NBA offseason and think “boy, these guys must be using some really advanced statistical models”.

    I’m not saying they don’t exist, but either the models are bad, the guys using them don’t understand what they’re saying, or nobody listens to the nerds.

    I can’t wait until the same dumb mainstream media guys who were all, “D-Rose! Yes!” to also be, “Wow, they got Wade! What a signing!” You know they will.

    If Wade had signed here, I know several regulars on this site who would have been PUMPED

    “So if Wade goes to Chicago, who
    are the playoff locks in the East?
    Cleveland
    Boston
    Toronto
    Indiana
    After that it’s pretty wide open”

    We’re better than all those teams.

    i would add detroit to that group.. they are probably in the mix for #4….

    Indiana? They’re worse around the board except for Paul George who should improve.

    I’m loving what Chicago is doing, though. They look like a 34 win team IMO.

    The SL Knicks look a lot better with Chasson Randle at the point guard and Baker at the two with Tokoto off the bench. Those three have earned themselves an invite to TC and I guess Plumlee too.

    Man, that 2nd Rounder is looking sweet right about now, particularly when the Bulls flip Butler at the deadline.

    Adrian Wojnarowski says Jose Calderon was traded to the Lakers.

    KEEP IT COMING CHICAGO

    So between Rondo, Grant, Butler, and Wade, Chicago has zero shooting at the guard positions. Doug McDermott is about to lead the league in 3PA next year. And I’m reading that Dunleavy was traded to Cleveland. Excellent.

    teams fought over Jose Calderon as Chicago unloaded him! I can’t tell what LA gave up for him.

    So between Rondo, Grant, Butler, and Wade, Chicago has zero shooting at the guard positions. Doug McDermott is about to lead the league in 3PA next year. And I’m reading that Dunleavy was traded to Cleveland. Excellent.

    Based on the past this is going to be Butler’s good year. So far he shoots it well every other year.

    ; )

    Can’t believe Wade is gone from Miami. Everybody loses. Riley’s reputation as a cold hearted dick increases, The Heat because the young guys need his leadership and now no go -to guy, the city of Miami because they lost an icon for no good reason, the Bulls because of the contract and poor fit, and DWade because he probably didn’t want to do it – starting over with a team that has no chance to win a championship. This really sucks. I could see him going to Cleveland but not Chicago. This really sucks.

    it really made no sense to me… i know the heat was trying to do the financially prudent thing but you gave up all your picks for friggin dragic so your future is toast anyway…..and you lose so much goodwill letting the face of the franchise go somewhere else…

    just give him the kobe deal and ride out it out until retirement…

    I can see the Heat actually improving a bit from this, devoting more time to Johnson and Richardson at the two. They have to match Johnson first, though.

    And they likely need to sign one more scorer.

    DWade because he probably didn’t want to do it – starting over with a team that has no chance to win a championship.

    Dude has 3 rings, DWade wants to get paid.

    Why would anyone pay Wade $23.5M at this stage in his career? He’s old and not good. Or maybe the TS% is lying?

    it really made no sense to me… i know the heat was trying to do the financially prudent thing but you gave up all your picks for friggin dragic so your future is toast anyway…..and you lose so much goodwill letting the face of the franchise go somewhere else…

    just give him the kobe deal and ride out it out until retirement…

    Goodwill means nothing. If the Heat parlayed this (awful) move by Chicago into signing another solid player and winning another 50 games, no one would care. It’s easy to write narratives about a 50-win team after it’s lost its “superstar.” I assure you that Dwyane Wade will not be returning to 2006 (or 2012) form anytime soon.

    The best case scenario is that Bosh is told to go home permanently and collect his $75M without getting out of bed, Wade goes and sucks in Chicago, and the Heat have an extra $50M to play with moving forward.

    Whiteside is and would have been the most important player on the Heat, and he will finally be getting starter’s minutes next year. It is downright inexplicable that he came off the bench in 30 games this past season.

    The Bulls are somehow making me a tiny bit better about being a Knicks fan.

    As for Miami, they just rebuilt on the fly, the way we haven’t been able to do, because Riles is a stone cold killa.

    @289

    Only because they hit a 5-run grand slam with Whiteside. Otherwise, you’d be looking at a top lottery team without draft picks.

    I heard a recent podcast interview with Patrick Ewing where he said he regrets leaving the Knicks. He said he should’ve just stayed and played the final year of his contract with the Knicks like JVG wanted him to do and retired a Knick. They wouldve won 50 games again and probably a round or 2 in the playoffs. But he said he was so tired of all the talk from the media and teammates (he didnt mention names) about how they were better off w/o him that he just wanted to leave.

    I wonder if in the future Wade will have the same regrets about not retiring as a Heat like Ewing has not retiring as a Knick.

    the heat weren’t doing much with or without wade and it has more to do with bosh’s and dragic’s contract more than anything… those ships are sinking alot faster than expected….

    wade’s contract wasn’t going to do much…. i’m sure enticing westbrook to come sounds alluring but their future is murky because of the above two….

    goodwill might not mean much to someone like riley or even arison… or maybe even most of the nba… but with free agents it matters… and just from a personal perspective you have to treat your players right…. it’s just the right thing to do…

    I think the Bulls move has more to do with next offseason and recruiting another Superstar.

    They can renounce Rondo, and have Wade/Butler be the draw.

    I think the Durant signing has probably made every team that is interested in one of the major 2017 free agents thinking they need to make the playoffs to have a shot. With everyone having cap space, you need to have a decent team to differentiate yourself from other teams. Being a major city isn’t enough of a draw anymore.

    which is going to make the knicks season very interesting.

    Who the fuck is on that team? Assuming they let Tyler Johnson go. That’s not a playoff team.

    Dragon
    Richardson
    Winslow
    Whiteside

    And?

    it’s crazy to me how Riley’s entire reputation as an executive rests on two extremely lucky events:

    1) Eddie Jones, Miami’s best player, misses half the season in 02-03, just sneaking Miami into top 5 of the draft and getting htem the last star of the draft. No Wade -> no 2006 title -> no friendship with LBJ and Bosh -> who the hell is Riley again?

    2) 2006 team was not a good team. It won 52 games. Riley just jettisoned all his young dudes to gamble on the hope that shaq had something left in the tank, and then Riley filled the rest of the roster with washed up vets. Wade just went supernova in the those playoffs. Replay the 2006 playoffs 100 times and I’d guess the heat win maybe 3 times.

    So yeah, not much of a fan of Riley as an executive, at least not relative to the amount of respect he gets. I think the Heat are heading into a downward spiral here even if whiteside doesn’t get lazy now that he’s got lots of dough guaranteed.

    Kinda a bummer about Galloway, though if he wanted the opt out the we really did him a favor rescinding the Qualifying Offer because we couldn’t give him that with Early Bird, and the Pelicans wouldn’t have been able to put it on an offer sheet either. Seems like he just wanted to go home, fair play, maybe Chasson or Baker will have more of an opportunity to turn into something. Silver lining, does the fact that he went to the Pels give us a better shot at Tim Frazier? I’d say that swap is at least a wash if not somewhat in our favor, assuming we still have cap space for him.

    The F? How did CHI get TWO 2nd rounders for the corpse of Calderon?

    Who the fuck is on that team? Assuming they let Tyler Johnson go. That’s not a playoff team.

    Dragon
    Richardson
    Winslow
    Whiteside

    And?

    I don’t know what is happening with Bosh but yeah that is their team I think. They might match Tyler Johnson and I guess will fill out the roster with whatever free agents are left. I think Dragic can take a nice step forward with no Wade and his ball dominating ways. Oh and they also have McBob. I think SPO will figure it out and they’ll squeak into the playoffs.

    also expect to see continued improvement from Winslow

    Another innocent black dude trying to comply with orders murdered by police, this time on FB live.

    Alton Sterling. Philando Castile.

    I just watched Alton Sterling’s 15-year-old son break down weeping at his family’s press conference. It strikes you to the core.

    How messed up is it that it’s not until technological advances allows for handheld video recording devices that the the rest of America learns about how dangerous it is to be a black person in this country?

    So the Bulls traded away three second round picks as part of all their recent trades, which is normally what you do when you are in win now mode. Their starting roster seems to be Rondo, Butler, Wade, Lopez and a forward, although I predict Grant will outplay Rondo and get the nod to start eventually. If that is a win now line up, and you think Noah, KP, Melo, Rose and Lee seems like a better line up, you have to actually like the Knicks chances to do reasonably well in the East. It’s really mind-boggling that the Knicks seem to have out GMed Chicago

    I dunno, the Bulls’ decisions have been so poor, it’d be hard for any team not to out-GM this offseason. Adding Wade when you’ve already added Rondo? How does that possibly make any sense (and Rondo didn’t make any sense to begin with)? At least the Knicks’ moves are at least internally consistent! I don’t like the plan that they’re consistent with, but at least they’re consistent. The Bulls’ plans make no sense at all.

    A Bulls blog had a good zinger. “Phil Jackson likely called up Gar and said, ‘Nice move. Very nice move. See you in the Eastern Conference Finals.'”

    I have a non-Knicks trade proposal:

    Boston gets: Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook

    Philadelphia gets: Isaiah Thomas

    Cleveland gets: Avery Bradley, Steven Adams

    Oklahoma City gets: Jahlil Okafor, Jaylen Brown, Ante Zizic, Celtics (aka Nets) 2017 1st rounder, Nets 2018 first rounder, Lakers 2017 first rounder (from Philly),

    Very clever trade idea. Ultimately, though, I don’t think Philly would take Thomas in such a deal and I don’t think OKC is willing to give up on Adams just yet, even if they deal Westbrook.

    OKC, by the way, still has a good team. Not a championship contender, but they have enough young talent that I could see an argument being made to Westbrook that he’d have just as good of a chance of winning by staying in OKC as he would in Los Angeles or New York. If simply winning is the key thing for him, though, of course, which it very well might not be.

    If i were Westbrook i’d go to the GSW too to develop myself next to my brother KD.
    Even for less money.Even for vet min.

    Brian, it’s true it’s a very low standard. Like you, I don’t know what Chicago was thinking.

    Another comment from a Bulls fan on a blog “When Gar said we had to get younger and more athletic”, he must have meant younger and more athletic than him.

    @296, you forgot about the fiasco with Anthony Carter’s agent, which gave them the cap room to sign Lamar Odom, whom they were then able to turn around for Shaq, which gave them that first title and gave Wade and Riley (who had last won a championship a loooooong time ago in LA) the cache to recruit LBJ and Bosh.

    2) 2006 team was not a good team. It won 52 games. Riley just jettisoned all his young dudes to gamble on the hope that shaq had something left in the tank, and then Riley filled the rest of the roster with washed up vets. Wade just went supernova in the those playoffs. Replay the 2006 playoffs 100 times and I’d guess the heat win maybe 3 times

    This is the truth. Worst team to win an NBA Finals in forty years, outside of maybe one of the Rockets teams.

    I don’t think Wade gets the credit he deserves for what he did in those playoffs.

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