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159 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2025.01.17)”
DDV out tonight. Sucks, I was looking forward to watching him play. Towns is “iffy”.
and they said cherry picking was easy
https://tinyurl.com/y9ufr8jd
Top of the morning to all … was going to take the full day away but wanted to say RIP to the great David Lynch.
Enjoy the weekend!
Enjoy the weekend E.
They are bringing the hostages home. Maybe they can bring RJ home too.
O please E don’t go!
(Said no one ever)
E’s obsession with RJ is weird and I disagree with him wholeheartedly on it. But pointing out RJ sucks doesn’t mean we made a great trade.
For one thing, RJ was the salary filler. 99% of the outgoing value in that trade was Quickley and an excellent draft pick.
And as I said yesterday, had we not made the OG trade, RJ could have simply been used as the outgoing salary in the Bridges trade, which would have been useful.
All the OG data last year was closely intertwined with the meteoric rises of Isaiah Hartenstein and Donte DiVincenzo, and a lot of very smart people came to dumb conclusions. Chris Herring, for instance, ignored the impact of Donte’s shooting from everywhere & Hartenstein’s elite playmaking to claim that OG standing in the corner had unlocked our offense.
Last January you guys ran djphan off the site when he argued that Isaiah Hartenstein, not OG Anunoby, was fueling our defensive surge. Some of my favorite posters were using before & after data to argue that OG was responsible for Hartenstein’s sudden dominance. Well, Isaiah Hartenstein seems to be doing just fine without OG. And our defensive surge ended abruptly without iHart, despite having OG available for every game this year. So wherever djphan is, I hope he’s running a victory lap.
Y’all made endless “impact on winning”, conveniently ignoring that all his off data coincided with many other Knicks being off, as well.
At the end of the day, terrible attribution analysis (not just by the board, but by the front office) led many to believe that paying OG $40M AAV might not be a bad idea.
It was a very bad idea. His negative career bpm is not some weird fluke or a fault with bpm. He does not come close to providing $40M of value and we could have 2-3 extra rotation players right now if we’d paid him a reasonable sum or just stuck with Quickley instead.
Further “analysis” suggested that even though it might be too much money it didn’t matter bc we already had a championship caliber team as good as anyone.
Further data has revealed that we likely sit comfortably on top of tier 2, while there is a difficult-to-bridge gap between us and tier 1. And the valuation mistakes we made with both Bridges and Anunoby are the reason that gap is likely to remain very difficult to bridge.
His problem before rage quitting was that he thought the Knicks were going to be bad going forward and instead they were very good.
I think I have it figured out.
E hasn’t figured out that having more scoring skill does not always translate in greater value.
If OG was the #1 option on a bad offensive team and then you made RJ the #1 option on that same team, the RJ team might actually be better. The problem is both teams would suck on offense. To add value you have to do some things on offense at an above average rate.
OG’s team would suck because he doesn’t have enough of a diverse skillset to carry an offense.
RJ’s team would suck because even though he could score 25+ a night more comfortably than OG, he wouldn’t be efficient enough to create a good offense.
On the flip side
If you made OG the #3 or #4 option on a very good team he would add value on offense because he’d stay within his circle of competence where he is very efficient.
If you made RJ the #3 of #4 option on the same team, RJ would continue doing the same things, just less often and not add much if any value to the offense. He’s doesn’t have a circle of real competence. He does a lot of things at a medicore level.
This is why true 3&Ds have so much value. If they can make 3s at a rate that adds value on offense even in a limited role and are also solidly plus defenders, you have a guy on a net basis that’s adding a lot of value even if he’s only scoring 12-15 points per game as 4th option.
In OG’s case, he’s limited on offense, but he does more than just shoot 3s well. He’s a good cutter, finds good opportunities to leak out and can make a few other shots. He’s more than just 3&D. He’s closer to a 3rd option.
On the defensive side, I’m not even sure why there is a discussion. The gap betwen OG and RJ seems pretty huge no matter how you slice it.
OG has a ton of value because he adds value on both sides of the ball in his role.
The only issue that needs to be discissed with OG is why he’s been slumping a bit lately on both sides.
dj predicted as soon as the trade happened that the Knicks were going to be a below .500 team for the rest of the season and if I recall correctly it was cause the Knicks were going to struggle making up the lost usage of RJ and IQ.
Good morning, all! Let’s try to avoid random comments about random casinos in random cities in the midst of an actual discussion about basketball (as annoying as that discussion has been), and for G-d’s sake if we reference Dr. Fauci for some reason today as we did yesterday, let’s at least do him the courtesy of spelling his name correctly (it’s not “Faucci”).
Let’s be better.
Love,
Doogie
I think the Knicks surge last year was due to many factors. It was I-Hart playing well, DDV playing well and the schedule, but the biggest impact was going from an inefficient negative defender like RJ to an efficient plus defender like OG and opening up space.
To be clear, what OG was adding was not all because OG was so great. It was partly because RJ was negative. We swapped a negtaive for a positive which a big move. It was like going from Payton to Brunson (not comparing OG to Brunson, but saying the positive impact is bigger because you are going from negative to positive).
We have saturday and sunday off so if we want to give towns a nice chunk of in season time to heal it makes sense to keep him out tonight
Sharpshooter Malik Beasley was 1-10 last night vs the Pacers, 1-8 from three.
Coby White, another Knick killer, proceeded to go 11-40 from three in his next 5 games after his ridiculous 9-11 vs the Knicks.
Now is this because we leave guys more wide open than other teams? Or are we just unlucky to get average players going nuclear against us?
I don’t really have the answer, just putting it out there.
I would think that he’d be especially hyped to play against his old teammates, though. Plus, he knows their tendencies very well, and he would have a decent chance of playing pretty well.
“Sharpshooter Malik Beasley was 1-10 last night vs the Pacers, 1-8 from three.
Coby White, another Knick killer, proceeded to go 11-40 from three in his next 5 games after his ridiculous 9-11 vs the Knicks.
Now is this because we leave guys more wide open than other teams? Or are we just unlucky to get average players going nuclear against us?
I don’t really have the answer, just putting it out there.”
I’ve kind of been wondering the same exact thing. And don’t forget to include Aaron Wiggins on that list.
Nobody ran dj off the site and there was widespread agreement about iHart’s impact. I think he was just embarrassed about making an awful prediction. He shouldn’t be though! I respect that he went on the record instead of making some vague, unfalsifiable fake “prediction.” You win some, you lose some.
All this to say, come back dj!
If paying OG was a bad idea, the only worse idea would’ve been to let him walk for nothing. The Pistons were going to pay him, and other teams were interested too.
In any event, if we want/need to trade him, we’ll be able to do so.
Yeah, being “driven” off of a web site is pretty weak. No one should be able to “make” someone do something that they don’t already want to do themselves, anyway. Everyone has agency over their own personal decisions.
You are right, The correct spelling is FauXi 🙂
I was wondering if you were going to chime in on that. 🙂 I’m not even sure why he was referenced yesterday, in the first place.
Nobody blinded me too. That fucker.
Wholeheartedly endorse Strat’s RJ/OG analysis. At the end of the day, “bad first option” is just not a very valuable NBA archetype, and RJ’s problem is he doesn’t have the tertiary skills (e.g. spot up shooting, cutting, high level defense) to be much of anything else. So he scores 25 PPG on an awful team.
E over indexes on the fact that he would be favored in a game of one-on-one against OG, but it’s not actually all that relevant to his impact on winning.
How ironic is it that the condescending know-it-all prick who screamed “Incineration!!!!!” couldn’t take the heat he was getting for his utterly stupid opinions (remember “I know Josh Hart better than anyone!”?) and ultimately self-incinerated?
Good fucking riddance to him and his idiotic ellipses. Now if only Mr. Asterisk would follow suit…
“Nobody blinded me too. That fucker.”
How can someone also do something that wasn’t done in the first place? Don’t you mean “either” instead of “too”? Not sure who the fucker is here, but that’s pretty much par for the course.
His problem was he had low emotional tolerance for trolls like you. Usually that hints to something more serious going on in one’s personal life, which is why it’s generally not a good idea to relentlessly troll people on the internet, particularly in what is supposed to be a community. But that lesson in kindness and empathy seems to continually elude you.
Anyway and I went back and read some old January threads and man was dj spot on about iHart. He called it from the second game of January, too. That was some of the best analysis we’ve ever had here.
Found this gem while I was scrolling through last year: the thread where I told you OKC was coming for iHart on Jan 11, 2024.
https://knickerblogger.net/2024/01/11/knicks-morning-news-2024-01-11/#comment-879393
Further down I even predicted they’d offer him 3 years, 80 mil.
There were some very silly rebuttals but the worst of all came from my personal stenographer and aspiring Knicks GM, DRed, who said he wouldn’t pay big money for iHart bc Mitch was better.
While it appears that E has wandered off, I still want to re-post my favorite poster geo’s last comment from the thread as it so perfectly encapsulates what happened yesterday, all day long:
“it’s like a digital form of that three card monty game…”
Not really smart enough or patient enough to wade through all the OG advanced stats, team stats, etc…to prove or disprove that OG is good.
But I’ll just say this. All last season there were some people who were saying the Hart trade was bad and that he wasn’t worth the salary we gave him (when you factor in giving up a pick). And this was mainly due to the fact that last season Hart wasn’t shooting well from 3.
Cut to the playoffs and Hart is probably our second most important player. This year there were questions about him starting and fitting in with a starting 5 because of his shooting. He shot lights out to start the season (cooled off a bit since) and has probably been the real MVP of our team this season so far. He’s doing EVERYTHING for us. And no one is saying the Hart trade was bad now or that he didn’t deserve a contract extension with us.
The point is…players go on runs. All except the absolute best will have stretches, seasons, etc…where they play above or below their mean. Hell, even Brunson can be off at times.
For all we know, OG is pacing himself because of the heavy minute load. Or maybe he is a little upset about his role but that can be figured out. Or maybe he’s just “off” right now. Bridges looked awful to start the season, was ridiculous in December and is now somewhere between good and ok.
Maybe OG is off because he’s playing out of position? Maybe getting Mitch back will allow Thibs to not just go with 2 bigs sometimes but also put OG at the 3 more and he’ll suddenly surge.
Larger picture, let the team play and continue to learn how to play together. Let Mitch come back. Let Rose address the bench. We can settle into this team for a few years if we want and typically the longer a good team plays together, the better they get.
“djphan says:
January 11, 2024 at 14:24
okc is probably not looking for a c…. they’re a-ok on defense as is with chet in his rookie year…. and SGA and jalen williams not even approaching the height of their powers….
the team to be worried about.. if we’re really worried about a team paying ihart after 5 games.. is the spurs….
there’s probably others also…. houston maybe if they have room i don’t know… but like really it’s not really a thing to worry about at this point…”
I think the point is when OG does go on a run he still won’t be worth close to $40M.
OG signed the same deal as Franz Wagner this summer. You think OG can carry the Knicks for two months if KAT goes down like Franz did when Paolo got hurt?
Josh Hart makes $18M and cost the 25th pick in the draft. That’s good value for him. And it’s about what I think we should have given up for and paid OG, too. The cost delta between Hart and OG is a huge valuation error.
Djphan insisted that the Knicks’ offense was going to collapse because they were losing RJ and IQ’s usage. It was a bizarre take to begin with that made no mathematical sense, it blew up in his face, and since he was kind of a know-it-all, he couldn’t really deal with being so obviously wrong.
There was a lot of “you guys don’t know what you’re talking about, just you wait and see, the offense is certain to collapse” and then very much the opposite is what happened. It was a very dumb hill to die on and he is just not the kind of cat to say “welp, guess I was wrong about that one.”
If he has some emotional problem that causes him to act like a condescending know-it-all who runs away when a bad take blows up in his face, I hope he can get some help for that, but I don’t see why that is anybody else’s problem. He certainly didn’t have any problem telling other people that their takes were stupid.
Hubert, not here to argue you didn’t have the more accurate take, but I do think that all the other takes you mentioned before modifying your post seemed fairly valid at the time.
OKC had a great center, why would they pay a king’s ransom for a backup who might barely play? Well, because their star center was going to go down for the year, but who knew? Brilliant move because crystal ball.
Mrs. iHart was certainly looking at going to a place about as stultifying for her career aspirations as could be, compared to NYC. Of course, we rarely know the hearts of our players, much less the hearts of their paramours, and perhaps generational wealth for her children was more important than higher rated social media appearances.
And I think it is arguable to say that a HEALTHY Mitch is equivalent, if different, to iHart. At his peak Mitch has absolutely wrecked teams. Has he become our Greg Oden? Hope not, but could be.
Mitch was having a fantastic season last year before he got hurt. There is no telling how good the January Knicks would have been if he hadn’t got hurt. It’s just been so long since we’ve seen him that we’ve forgotten.
As I mentioned last thread, Hart just made the ESPN all-contract team. It’s not fair to use a steal of a contract as a standard for a fair contract.
Yes, djphan predicted the Knicks would struggle replacing RJ’s usage.
When it was clear he was wrong about the Knicks’ struggles, he very acutely recognized that a sudden leap from Isaiah Hartenstein was driving a Knicks defensive surge that he had not foreseen, and he was mocked relentlessly for suggesting this. I literally just read it.
Basically djphan made a prediction, and to his credit, it was a bold one. A lot of people disagreed with him, and the disagreers turned out to be correct while dj was…quite wrong.
This is just not a series of events that can be characterized as “driving him off the site.” Matter of fact, I recall dj getting way more personal against others than anyone was towards him. He kind of lashed out when Under .500 Theory flopped.
Again, I’d welcome him back with open arms. He’s clearly a smart guy and I learned a lot from his posts, ellipses and all. But his exile was self-imposed.
OG is making less than $37m this season. Not sure how that’s become $40m unless it serves an argument. Oddly enough, I don’t expect people taking that the same position on his value to call it $40m once it’s escalated to $43m.
And yes, I think there’s a difference between $37m and $40m, and think $43m won’t seem so much when the cap leaps higher as it’s about to do. Newer contracts are always more expensive unless players take a haircut (a la JB). Then in 4 years the same contract is called a bargain…as is happening with Josh, who was absolutely NOT considered a bargain by the same posters who now praise his correct as fair. The delta between what OG should be paid and is being paid is not that large and perhaps won’t exist at all in a couple years.
And Noble is right, dj couldn’t stand being wrong. That’s why he’s left. The RJ/IQ thing was only one example – he was 50/50 at best with his takes, and never learned from his failures but instead started telling people they were stupid etc. I miss his perspective; I don’t miss his vitriol.
Edit: and partly I know this because I read a few old threads checking for a few of my takes on certain events to see whether I had the right idea or not. He dominated several, and was quite wrong on more than one.
Except that doesn’t make any sense either.
Hartenstein almost never shot the ball as a Knick, and for damn sure didn’t solve the “problem” caused by RJ’s phantom usage void. The team got better offensively because RJ Barrett was no longer going 6 for 19 every single game, and his shot attempts were redistributed to more efficient players, none of whom were Isaiah Hartenstein. Hartenstein’s impact came on defense, where he was sublime, and as a screener, but the offense mainly improved because we stopped investing possessions in the guy who constantly missed shots.
He wasn’t wrong that Hartenstein was playing very well, but his central conceit was most definitely horribly wrong.
It seems awfully coincidental that the defense got markedly better after we acquired OG.
We played like the worst defense in the league post-Mitch to the best with OG. The defense fell off significantly, though not to the same extent, when OG went down.
Hartenstein now moved to last year’s 4th best defense in the league. He’s certainly a positive for them on defense, but when he’s off the floor they’d still have the league’s best defense by a couple DRTG points.
On the other hand, OG had Hartenstein replaced by KAT who has played C for exactly one other team that has had a top-20 defense. He managed to anchor the 13th best defense with Pat Bev, McDaniels, Vanderbilt, and Ant on the perimeter.
This is a false memory.
He repeatedly attributed his prediction being wrong to Isaiah Hartenstein’s unexpected emergence:
https://knickerblogger.net/2024/01/07/knicks-morning-news-2024-01-07/#comment-878676
And people just kept mocking him for being wrong about his prediction:
https://knickerblogger.net/2024/01/07/knicks-morning-news-2024-01-07/#comment-878679
He “lashed out” to being trolled every single time he tried to earnestly add to the discourse.
Some people are sensitive. Others have things going on in their lives we don’t know about. That is why it’s generally a good rule of thumb to not relentlessly mock people in your community.
There were a lot of reasons why the Knicks got better after the OG trade. Some people here think that post the OG trade we were legitimate contenders, unlike this years team. Seems like it was a good trade? Yeah, he’s overpaid now. That’s what happens with free agency.
Hubert please stop trying to bully me off this website.
Side take. Watching some Shai highlights from yesterday’s demolition of Cleveland (note that Caruso is back… man…). I’ve had this opinion before, and it was strengthened watching the highlights — Shai is like a much taller, silky smooth Brunson. They do much the same things, but while Brunson is like watching a bartender with a shaker preparing a martini, Shai is like watching the bartender pouring it out into the glass.
I think I have been laboring under the illusion that that walkerandbendercornerstones was DJphan this whole time.
I do remember that episode though. Was he a doctor? I think his life was too stressful to handle the heat in the Knickerblogger kitchen. I did like him a lot despite his, uh, overconfidence.
I am firmly in the OG is reasonably overpaid camp. Also firmly in the, “If Mitch were healthy this team would be a fringe contender” camp.
We have a very good team with a gaping weakness due to Mitch’s injury. We could use a few more good bench pieces. But I still watch all these arguments as my 2007 self, just kind of bemused about how high our standards have become.
“OG is making less than $37m this season. Not sure how that’s become $40m unless it serves an argument.”
The same way that it became OK to bend math and rounding rules yesterday to round Hart’s 5.7 assists per game up to 7 assists per game.
And as I’ve now become an expert on djphan historical takes, I should point out he also repeatedly monitored the redistribution of USG after the trade and noted that the reason we weren’t seeing the impact he predicted was that Brunson and Randle had picked up an enormous load of the USG in RJ’s absence.
He suggested this was unsustainable and — lo and behold! — 2 weeks later down went Randle and suddenly the usage problem he had predicted became pretty glaring.
The lack of anyone other than Brunson to create shots in the playoffs was, in fact, our biggest weakness and the thing Leon addressed this summer through the Bridges and Towns trades.
OG had been quite good as a Knick on both ends through last season and then through the first quarter of this season. Good enough to justify his contract although definitely not good enough to provide surplus value.
Over his last 20 or so games he has played poorly, to the point where he is unquestionably poor value on his contract. I don’t feel great about him snapping out of it, because I don’t foresee the coach putting the brakes on his minutes. He’s on pace to play WAY more minutes than he ever has, like as in 50% more minutes. He’ll cross the 3000 minute barrier at his current rate.
We’re seeing the negative effects of it already in my opinion. Unfortunately this is probably not going to end well. He shouldn’t be used like an iron man, heavy innings eater type, but that’s what we are doing.
Some examples from that thread of people ruthlessly bullying djphan for his pro-iHart takes:
Really vicious, anti-iHart agenda on display here.
I said AAV. So it becomes $40M when you divide the total number by the number of years.
I was wrong, though. OG’s AAV is actually $42.5M. Even better!
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/player/_/id/23618/og-anunoby#:~:text=OG%20Anunoby%20signed%20a%205,dead%20cap%20value%20of%20%2436%2C637%2C932.
Not to get all lil penny here but we had the 2nd best offense in the league in the playoffs it was our defense that was a disaster
So he was right because he was wrong but then one of the reasons he was wrong was injured in a freak accident and he became right? Interesting take.
PBP:
Both On: 101.3 DRtg
Hartenstein Only: 116.7 DRtg
OG Only: 104.3 DRtg
Both Off 116.7 DRtg
Limited to games both played:
Both On: 101.3 DRtg
Hartenstein Only: 118.2 DRtg
OG Only: 105.3 DRtg
Both Off 120.9 DRtg
Small samples warning, etc.
The trouble in T-Wolves land over Randle is growing
https://x.com/tomhaberstroh/status/1880281482285183320
I mean, sure, in theory djphan could have possessed the emotional IQ to do what, for example, I do with something like my final verdict if I had to delineate it on the Josh Hart trade which is — “solid, deliberate, rational, intelligent ex ante evaluation process, ultimately poor ex post prediction to the extent there even was a prediction.”
But he isn’t wired that way apparently, and so he reacted to the relentless nonsense hurled his way by leaving. Concur that it would be nice if he came back, as I would say about all regulars and semi-regulars who have been driven or bullied away.
This is a place with a very vocal faction that goes the mattresses to insist things like the following:
A broke dude sells a cow and his tractor for $1,000 because he needs it to buy a lawn mower for $750 and a roof repair for $250. Really, the insistent hold, the broke dude only sold the cow and the tractor for $1,000 to get the money to buy the $750 lawn mower. The sale of the cow and the tractor had nothing to do with the roof repair.
When you have a faction that vocal and that dense and that belligerent and that insistent, it’s not gonna be for the faint-hearted. Some will peel off.
I honestly get the polar opposite impression than Hubert. Looks to me that people were actually unusually patient with dj’s snippiness because we genuinely respected his analysis. I mean, the best example of him being bludgeoned is swift calling him “RJphan,” which is not that bad and kind of funny.
Anywho, he’s welcome back whenever he wants!
Also let’s not forget the fact that dj’s take was that iHart was SOLELY responsible for the team’s defensive surge, that he suddenly and almost coincidentally made a huge leap as a player the day RJ was traded. It was an attempt to paper over his bad take.
Clearly bringing in OG had SOMETHING to do with the team’s defensive improvement, but no: Hartenstein overnight coincidentally turned into Bill Russell, which means we didn’t miss RJ’s very important usage. OG was still a bum, he was just a very lucky bum.
He just couldn’t deal with being wrong about something and used one bad take to try to paper over another one.
hubie whenever you go all poster-persecution hagiography it always makes me a little sad, because you’ve always been so nice to me. it’s like finding out my wife is actually legally blind.
I liked Julius but I am very glad his contract year is someone else’s problem
No, you’re thinking of someone else we drove away: wetbandit. He was a doctor who, while serving on the frontline of covid, would come here to chat but also got relentlessly mocked and ganged up on.
It’s ludicrous to think we can run people off this site. Just look at the people who are still here.
Gotta have a thick skin around here. I’ve been armchair diagnosed as a misanthrope with a host of maladies (even including depression!), and one has to be able to put up with that kind of stuff in the face of its’ unreality in order to continue to hang out here. One just has to realize that the accusatory nature coming from folks on here is only coming from people who have no idea who they are or what they’re really about.
“It’s ludicrous to think we can run people off this site. Just look at the people who are still here.”
100 percent on that. LOL 🙂
I liked wetbandit. Don’t recall him ever getting mocked though. Probably just has a lot of doctor stuff to do these days.
And this would also explain DDV suddenly shooting lights out. He had more open looks bc OG was much more of a 3 point threat than RJ.
Same way Hart is shooting better this year. He shares the court with 4 legit 3 point shooters, so when he gets the 3 point shot, it’s generally a much more open look.
I’m not sure why we are discussing whether OG is overpaid or not.
He’s almost obviously overpaid. Any debate would be about by how much, but imo still be pretty irrelevant.
OG was the exact piece we needed to need to replace RJ in the starting lineup because he’d improve spacing for Brunson/Randle (a need), be way more efficient on lower usage (a need), upgrade our size at SF (a need), upgrade the defense and also add better switchability (a need).
When we made that move we were already past the point of penny pinching. We were at the point where Leon was saying, OG is one the final pieces to the puzzle to get into contention (RJ was NOT). So trade for him and if we have to overpay a little to keep him we can live with that.
The alternative was to take a monumental step backwards by letting him walk or trying to trade him for other players (none of which would likely give us exactly what we needed like OG).
We are fortunate Brunson took a little less in the short term (though he may make up for it later) and that Bridges is on a very attractive contract (which is partly why he cost us so many picks). That gave us some flexibility to add Towns.
We know this is not a finished product, but we have all the hard to get important pieces. We are now in “fill in the holes” mode with the first hole to be filled by Mitch or whoever we trade Mitch for.
It’s really strange to me that people can’t appreciate how good OG is on defense.
We went two decades as a franchise with the best perimeter defender on the team being, I don’t know, Renaldo Balkman.
OG is the best perimeter defender the Knicks have had in my lifetime. It’s not particularly close. He might be the best ever outside of Clyde. I think he is a joy to watch and I think the fact he currently has a -.6 DBPM is illustrative of something that it took me years to figure out. We can’t quantify defense with box score stats.
I am content in the knowledge that none of the OG-is-overpaid types will ever find a metric that satisfies them.
But OG, I am satsified with you. Completely. Other than you wanting to be like Kobe. Don’t do that.
That could be funny or even very funny in context, but the target never gave the slightest indication of having the kind of self-deprecatory, let’s share a laugh about my foibles, personality (*) to make it funny.
(*) At least in its internet manifestation.
All of Owen’s post is 10/10, but this particularly. Co-sign.
i recall wetbandit had that cool wolverine avatar…at least that’s what it looked like…never blew it up to confirm…
if you define OG as 3 and D…he does both of those very well…all the stuff in between not so much…is that worth 40AAV…probably not…but it likely is north of 30…given the other dudes who do that role with similar efficacy and are in that price range.
Maybe swift shouldn’t have called him “RJphan” but if that’s what drove him off the site, it’s a self-imposed exile.
this seems like the right moment to re-release my ‘hey ihart is important to our defense’ single. i always thought it would do better in any angrier era (but i still think our best hope to have a tenable playoff defense this year is healthy mitch):
ptmilosays:
March 16, 2024 at 10:44
since the trade last year, hart, brunson and i-hart have played 1515 possessions together at +15.6/100 (despite 3P% favoring opponents by 200bps). cf. last 2 years: Tatum/Brown/White: +11.4, Jokic/Murray/Gordon +13.9. OG is close to an ideal addition to that trinity, though a lot of that is just due to OG being a basketball skeleton key. the early returns on the foursome have obviously been tiny but mouth-watering. don’t quite think we have the pitch perfect playoff 5th wheel for that particular lineup, but DD is a very solid fit against most opponents and Randle and Bojan are still very workable there. a mostly healthy playoff glimpse is so tantalizing.
The Brunson/OG combo is just so lethal, because suddenly the team (which was already pretty darn good on defense) becomes a defensive monster (and that’s without Mitch in the paint. Can you even imagine an OG/Mitch combo on defense?
i am curious about it. i mean, i know it will be good, but i’m less sure whether it will be as devastating as it feels like it should (ignoring health). in general, i have been a little skeptical that mitch has become quite as dominant a defender as it can seem from watching. the 30K feet numbers stubbornly dissent.
over the last 4 seasons, we allow 113.6/100 with mitch on and 111.6 with mitch off. that is something that rarely happens over long samples to all-defense neighborhood rim protectors. admittedly some is because the knicks have had some unusually strong back-up 5 minutes. but note the defense has allowed only 110.3/100 in 8934 possessions with none of: mitch, i-hart, noel over that span. the mitch-on 113.6 is just a tick better than the nba average from 2020-2024. rapm and luck-adjusted rapm numbers similarly don’t think mitch is a nearly elite defender (more like “okay to pretty good”).
a somewhat less big picture way to look at rim protectors is how many rim fg per 100 are allowed when they play. these are essentially always favorable in long samples for universally revered defensive bigs. for example, over the last two seaons: gobert 15.4 rim fg allowed / 100 on, .196 / 100 off. AD is .167 / 100 on, .184 / 100 off. embiid is .175 / 100 on, .199 / 100 off. Lopez is .15 / 100 on, .175 / 100 off. draymond is .119 / 100 on, .145 / 100 off. mitch, meanwhile is .184 on, while i-hart is .166. and with neither mitch nor i-hart? .183. nba average is .177.
but here’s my personal favorite. we now also have estimates of individual defensive fg% at the rim. people have quickly realized its many limitations. but the most common caveat is to point out that some bigs may generate very impressive dfg% without deterring very many still-lucrative rim attempts, and so give additional credit for frequency of rim attempts defended. this makes sense, but it’s a double-edged sword, since personally defending a lot of rim attempts can mean that people are challenging you, but it can also mean that you are bothering a lot of shots that other bigs might not have been in position to defend. one plausible way to start to account for these dynamics is to compare the number of personally attributed rim misses to the number of total rim makes allowed when on the court. after all, it’s not that impressive to say that a particular big is allowing a low percentage on a low number of rim contests, yet overall the opponent is still making a ton of close shots when he is not the attributed defender. so here’s the rim fg personally thwarted / rim fg overall made when on court for a few select defenders over the last two seasons:
gobert: .318
embiid: .306
AD: .261
lopez: .432
draymond: .270
jjj: .312
i-hart: .299
mitch: .189
don’t take this to be “actually mitch sucks as d.” i am just not sure that mitch/og will be better or even as good as i-hart/og. i still miss mitch tho, and if fairly healthy he will be a big improvement over our current non i-hart minutes.
https://knickerblogger.net/2024/03/16/knicks-morning-news-2024-03-16/#comments
I don’t even remember doing that, lol.
Tangential to today’s discussion:
If Mitch returns healthy, we might be really good.
His offensive rebounding partially compensates for the worse spacing. Unlike last year after Randle got hurt, when Brunson was really the only player who could generate his own offense, we have KAT & Bridges, who can do this as well.
And the impact on the defense is likely to be pretty incredible, not least bc we move KAT, OG and Bridges down the positional ladder & give them size advantages.
(If this happens, I predict that Josh’s rate stats get much worse, both bc others will take a lot of the rebounds & bc he benefits more than most from good spacing.)
Weird line from Isaiah Stewart last night. Only 2 points, but 13 rebounds in 21 minutes off the bench.
Myles Turner 8-for-11 on threes. Impressive for a man that big. Wish Ryan Dunn hadn’t had 18 and 11 last night. Didn’t know he had that in him.
I remember that post PT. Because it was one of the few I actually I understood completely. I think.
I agree, but it’s OK. Josh may wind up on the bench where we could use some more depth, but he’ll still play plenty of minutes in the non Towns/Mitch lineups where he can still take advantage of the space and fill the rebounding gap from the loss of Randle.
When Mitch has been going well (ie all his years with the Knicks but not last year when he coudln’t finish) his value was mostly in being a good (or maybe decent) defensive big who also didn’t kill the offense because he was a great finisher and the best offensive rebounder in the NBA. He might not be that guy anymore if his dip in finishing wasn’t a blip, but hopefully we’ll get to find out. In any event he’s still going to be a better defender than Karl
The statement here: https://bsky.app/profile/adamaaronson.bsky.social/post/3lfxaiinjzs2o
[Extremely fake Jerry Seinfeld voice] That’s a shame
One of the things I’ve struggled with when trying to figure out how much Mitch will help is that Mitch’s stats in recent years were impacted by the fact that he was often playing at less than 100%.
There was a time he seemed to be overweight when he came back and it took awhile to get into shape.
There were times he was playing hurt (because well Thibs).
He’s been less than 100% for a lot of games.
This is one time they seem to be taking a LOT of time to get him healthy and then hopefully close to 100%. If he still has 100% in him, it may take a few weeks to get there, but 100% of him could have a huge positive impact.
If we are dealing with a less than 100% Mitch because injuries have slowly taken a toll or he gets hurt again or just dosn’t work hard enough, then he’ll probably just be an OK backup.
Whatever you say, Monte.
I don’t like those numbers, Milo! Mitch is our defensive savior, I tells ya! Everything is gonna be ok! Everything is gonna be ok!
Before OG the best Knick perimeter defenders in my lifetime were clearly Derek Harper and Spree.
Are these numbers available somewhere or at least the raw rim fg overall? I think I can find the defended rim attempts somewhere in the labyrinth of NBA.com.
Another unrelated note:
OG’s apparent willingness to shift up to the 4 contrasts so favorably w Melo’s unwillingness to do the same
It’s all Greek, Doogie.
https://x.com/NBA_NewYork/status/1880223795761340827
“How can someone also do something that wasn’t done in the first place? Don’t you mean “either” instead of “too”? Not sure who the fucker is here, but that’s pretty much par for the course.
It’s all Greek, Doogie.”
And it’s all 100 percent that way on purpose, too.
Can’t seem to find anything to contradict pt at the moment other than the AIOs give Mitch more credit than RAPM.
Maybe just emphasize again that Noel & iHart are both incredible defenders even for starters and they were playing reserves. Theoretically RAPM accounts for that.
DARKO ranks him very high on defense, T-11th, at +2.23.
EPM has him T-23 on defense at +1.7.
His RAPM rank is slightly worrying. His 4yr was 224 with his offense actually ranking higher at 137. +1.2 offense, +0.6 defense. Very good player overall, but not necessarily what we need.
Defensively he’ll be a lot better than KAT, but I’m a lot less convinced the tradeoff of moving KAT back to PF would be worth it.
Very much this. djPhan left when he run out of patience with people running out of patience with him being more obsessive and repetitive about his views than even Li’l Penny and Hubert!
I’d much rather have djphan, prickliness and all, than round eight thousand of E insisting he has the biggest brain dick at the bar.
i remember dj phan seeming like a really busy person…at work, with his friends, and also being a relatively new dad…
and most importantly, if I’m remembering correctly, he was in to actually being a DJ…
hopefully wherever he is he’s doing well…
Edit: that’s too funny kaminari…I had this image yesterday of E casually walking around his home in a bathrobe and slippers yesterday, while eating a sandwich with one hand and carelessly typing away and posting on KB, with just a thumb from the other hand…
‘but I’m a lot less convinced the tradeoff of moving KAT back to PF would be worth it.’
EB, my guess is that this is not going to be a real worry this year. Odds are, based on previous experience, Mitch is going to have to really work himself back into shape, which will likely take some weeks at best, so he’ll probably just get spot minutes (e.g., take Sims’ minutes). And I doubt if he’ll get much more than 20 a game even by the end of the year assuming KAT comes back and stays healthy. Odds seem good that we’ll see him used in various lineups, playing with KAT at the four only being one of them.
I do also think that version of Mitch can still be a real weapon, especially in the playoffs.
Mitch/KAT should theoretically be fine because Mitch is never going to reliably give us more than 20ish minutes a game, so if Thibs is willing to be tactical we can deploy them as a combo when most useful and still get at least fifteen minutes a game of KAT at center.
I remember that post PT. Because it was one of the few I actually I understood completely. I think.
thank god owen. the literalist hoi polloi probably think it was about basketball.
Are these numbers available somewhere or at least the raw rim fg overall? I think I can find the defended rim attempts somewhere in the labyrinth of NBA.com.
95pct sure you can find them at pbpstats but on the move so can’t confirm at the moment
This is basically how I imagine you haha, you exude unbotheredness in a way few others can
sorry that probably was unclear eb. i am talking about the raw data sufficient to make the calculation. the actual denouement ratio was homemade.
My concern is more long-term that KAT is unplayable at the 5 for a championship-level team. Ideally, Mitch is that C because he’s already on the team. If not, then we don’t have much flexibility to find a player who puts us in the inner circle.
The argument for us being a contender with the current roster would be something like:
(1) KAT is still good enough at the 4 offensively to improve the offense over last year
(2) Mitch + OG + Mikal turn into an elite defense even with KAT & Brunson there
(3) The offense will still be good because Brunson can score without much spacing.
But if Mitch can’t be that, this year or next year or whenever, then we need another high-level player that there isn’t an obvious path to getting.
Mitch never plays much more than 20min anyway and he’ll be a big upgrade over Precious regardless.
Same as with Randle, I’m really glad that Leon didn’t sell low on Mitch to fill a short term need. He will be a difference maker again against Cleveland and Orlando types. Looks like we may get through January and hold on to the 3rd seed. Steady she goes…
One of the wildest things I came across when I was perusing the old January ‘24 threads was the brief discussion of a leaked rumor we all thought was crazy at the time: the Knicks and Wolves were discussing a KAT trade that involved the injured Mitchell Robinson. This was from like Jan 2nd or 3rd, too. It seems like Leon was trying to get OG and KAT done together last year.
I am very glad we didn’t go all in on trading for Embiid last year
I’m not convinced he hasn’t already. Those Lakers rumors from the summer still concern me.
“I am very glad we didn’t go all in on trading for Embiid last year”
Yeah, I remember being mocked for thinking that at the time…
Me too. Just not as much as before. TBD, I guess.
Feels like Leon and Gersson identified which players they were going to target to build their team long before they were actually available.
Think they continually called Portland, Toronto, Brooklyn and Minnesotta to land the four guys they did. They were ready and willing to sacrifice all our young players and all picks to get the four starters that surround Brunson. Individual trades, signings and draft blunders should not be looked at in isolation.
Signing and snatching DDV away from Minnesotta was a necessary and huge step in making KAT deal close. To us it looked like a redundant player with Grimes and IQ on the roster. To Leon it was a potential stepping stone that maximized the odds of landing KAT.
Love it when a plan comes together…
“Odds are, based on previous experience, Mitch is going to have to really work himself back into shape, which will likely take some weeks at best, so he’ll probably just get spot minutes (e.g., take Sims’ minutes).”
He may have already been doing that for the past few weeks.
Minnesotta. Not once, but twice.
Sixers on the hook for 350 million for Embiid and PG for the next 3 years seems pretty bad for them
https://qz.com/1045292/policing-peoples-grammar-online-is-never-really-about-grammar
“Sixers on the hook for 350 million for Embiid and PG for the next 3 years seems pretty bad for them”
Seems sub-optimal, at best.
“https://qz.com/1045292/policing-peoples-grammar-online-is-never-really-about-grammar”
Didn’t read it, but doubt that I’d agree with much that it said. Irrelevant, anyway, as I do *much* more policing of people’s spelling, especially when it comes to proper nouns (e.g., players’ names). Spelling is *not* the same as grammar.
interesting article jk…yep, it is truly a competition amongst us all for that sweet sweet external validation we all seem to crave so desperately…
while telling ourselves and anyone else that’ll listen that that is not the case at all…
Doogie, do you ever hang around a gymnasium?
You’ve been told many times by many different people that your spelling and grammar policing is incredibly condescending and rude, yet you carry on anyway, because honestly you don’t give a fuck how rude it is.
Keep being rude though, and keep acting like you’re a victim. You actually stopped doing it for a while, but I guess the little endorphin hit you get from pointing out somebody else’s mistakes is just too much for you to live without.
“Doogie, do you ever hang around a gymnasium?”
What another odd, out-of-place random question from you! Why do you ask? And does it have to be an indoor gym, or do outdoor basketball courts count?
“Keep being rude though, and keep acting like you’re a victim. You actually stopped doing it for a while, but I guess the little endorphin hit you get from pointing out somebody else’s mistakes is just too much for you to live without.”
No endorphin received on this end, and I don’t consider myself a victim of anything in any way, shape, or form. I just think that people’s names are important to them, and it’s a distinct sign of disrespect not to get someone’s name right (especially since it is so easy to do it correctly). And spelling someone’s name incorrectly even though one actually knows full well how to spell it is beyond ignorant.
Dealer’s choice, I’m not picky
Indoor gyms almost never anymore. Outdoor courts sometimes, when the weather is nicer—I prefer at least 70 degrees to be out there. Hope that response somehow makes you feel better, although I’m still not really sure why it would (or why you’d care enough to ask—but you do you).
Great piece, JK. Dig this quote:
Personally I think it’s because of frustration at being ignored, which I’m sympathetic to. Oddly, though, I’m not sympathetic to the solution….
The Bloody-Nine (also known as “Clarence Beeks”—I think that he capitalized it when he used that moniker) is ignored all the time, and he doesn’t seem to care at all.
Much obliged, partner. *tips hat*
I’m with you, Owen.
Doogie, why do you want to be the judge on if the others read or don’t read Clarence’s comments?
Which is it, Doogie. The Bloody-Nine or Clarence. Names matter apparabtly and you’ve used both without regard to my feelings on the matter. I’m clearly the Bloody-Nine. But I’m still transitioning I guess. Am I Clarence. Is it too late to go back?
Not trying to be like Strat but i’ve said multiple times we have to wait for the playoffs to properly assess this team, there’s a lot of players that coast through the regular season and then come up strong when it’s playoffs time. If OG and Mikal are at their best in the playoffs, and we’ve seen glimpses that they are very good at defense, we’ll be fine.
It’s even more probable that they aren’t giving their 100% because of the heavy minutes they’re playing. Tbf, i would do the same if i was in their place.
Trans and blind now. Less Polyphemus more Tiresias no?
“Doogie, why do you want to be the judge on if the others read or don’t read Clarence’s comments?”
I don’t know and don’t care about whether or not anyone is reading his posts. I’m only saying that he is largely ignored because when he posts random comments about random casinos in random cities in the middle of a discussion otherwise focused on basketball, he tends to get zero replies, recognition, or acknowledgment that he even wrote anything.
“Which is it, Doogie. The Bloody-Nine or Clarence. Names matter apparabtly and you’ve used both without regard to my feelings on the matter. I’m clearly the Bloody-Nine. But I’m still transitioning I guess. Am I Clarence. Is it too late to go back?”
It’s “The Bloody-Nine” now, because that is what you are using now. I just referenced the fact that you used to use the other screen name for clarification purposes, in case others were not aware. Be whoever the hell you want; it makes no difference to me, apparabtly. (Reminds me of Woody Allen in “Take the Money and Run”: “Apt natural. I have a gub.”) (“Apparabtly” was a typo, by the way; I didn’t spell it incorrectly on purpose. 🙂 It definitely is not something as personal as someone’s name, though.)
Ay Bendito… you think the Knicks are gonna make a trade happen Doogie?
clarence is a very unique and interesting individual…
a relative rarity…
i live vicariously at times through clarence…look forward to their posts greatly…love their creativity…
if there was a clarence TV channel, I’d be tuning in…
in my imagination, mister clarence has more taste, class and grace than I could ever hope to achieve…
I’ll give it a try though 😊
“Ay Bendito… you think the Knicks are gonna make a trade happen Doogie?”
No idea. But based on recent history, probably.
“in my imagination, mister clarence has more taste, class and grace than I could ever hope to achieve…”
Interesting. I tend to think quite the opposite. I also think that maybe he doesn’t even *want* to have taste, class, or grace. But I don’t know him, obviously, so who knows?
on this you are most certainly wrong sir…
your personal bias greatly cloud your perceptions…your vision is not so clear…hard to see through emotions sometimes…
although I have always been very mediocre in almost all aspects of life, one thing I do have some skill in: spotting exceptional traits in others…
most of us here seem to know very well who we are…
who are you?
Like, who you got coming in and who you got going out. You clearly have a handle on who’s putting up numbers out there in the league. I’m always stunned by the discipline you have in finding these stats. Who’s it gonna be. I’m not as versed as you on who it could be.
*Great* song, geo. Thanks.
I have no idea, The Bloody-Nine. One thing about Leon is that he is very good at holding his cards close, so we tend to be surprised by his trades when they finally come about. (Re: my “discipline” in finding stats, it’s only because I comb through all NBA box scores every day. But not having anything to do specifically with the Knicks. I’ve been doing it for probably 30 years.)
It would be nice to hear that Mitch is running at top speed by now.
I’m going to the game tonight. If I see him doing any work I’ll let you know tomorrow.
something about clarence terrifies you to your very core doogie…
you sound frightened, insecure and unsure…it comes through loudly and clearly…
Well that’s great, Doogie. I appreciate that in you so when you tell everyone here an interesting note about the boxed stats I rarely question them. My money is that somewhere deep inside you there’s a prescient reorganization of that data that will grace us with what the fuck Leon is gonna do. It’s strange to follow the Knicks and have so much respect for the nature of the minds running the franchise that I’m as much enjoying the sometimes awesome discussions here as I am sometimes enjoying the games. We’re up and down like the Knicks. It’s kinda cool though.
If Mitch is running by the end of the month, I’m happy. It would mean he’ll be playing by mid-Feb, and we would finally start to see what might be possible for this team.
One nice thing about Doogie having a distinct avatar is it’s easy to skip his posts. I read all of Clarence’s. They’re often funny or interesting in some way, even if they’re off-topic.
Not sure what’s distinct about my avatar. It looks to me like most of the rest of the default ones.
“something about clarence terrifies you to your very core doogie…”
Very weird, geo, as I have zero idea what I would be even a *little* bit scared about, much less to my “very core.” Overall, he seems OK to me, so I find it interesting that you’d write that.
Fussy, obsessive people tend to get the howling fantods when they run across sensualists.
i can always be wrong doogie, your words and timing of them just make it seem very true, like your responses are autonomous…as to the why, something from your past…
words and actions help tell the truth though…
there is one thing that nags at me…maybe because it seems such a foreign idea to me:
why would anyone welcome so much scorn and ridicule upon themselves – just in order to interact/connect with others?
is it a purposeful approach, or accidental?
I too enjoy the adventures of Clarence especially where he’s clubbing and what he’s eating in NYC. It reminds me of my youth.
Geo my man, whoever told you about the amount of renewed energy after bypass surgery who correct. I feel better than I have in many years. I still wouldn’t recommend it though.
I don’t mind “sensualists.” I just don’t want to read about it when I’m hoping to read about basketball.
“why would anyone welcome so much scorn and ridicule upon themselves – just in order to interact/connect with others?
is it a purposeful approach, or accidental?”
That’s the thing, though. I literally don’t think that I’m “inviting” anything by caring that people’s names be spelled correctly. It only seems to be the right thing to do as a human courtesy.
Counting on you, Doogie.
I’m sorry if you or someone you know often deals with people saying or spelling their name wrong. It can be quite obnoxious.
However, you also frequently take issue with non-names, names that aren’t specifically about the Knicks, or that we don’t write up a primer specifically for you to understand who we’re talking about.
And sometimes people make typos. It happens.
“I’m sorry if you or someone you know often deals with people saying or spelling their name wrong. It can be quite obnoxious.”
I definitely don’t know anyone like that. The only place I see it is here. Two of the people I interact with on a daily basis—my girlfriend and my son—get everything right, almost without exception (and I don’t mean *only* about grammar and spelling, etc. It’s kind of cool, and also kind of humbling, but in a positive way. (My girlfriend is much sweeter about it; my son less so…….but it’s part of his overall demeanor.)
“Counting on you, Doogie.”
For what? I didn’t know that I’d been tasked with anything.
Missed a close paren. Sorry about that.
Have you ever seen Beau is Afraid?
Doogie, irregardless of the reasons, I think you should cut people some slack on account of because they would of wrote better if they had the time to do so.
Like Einstine once said, “Don’t sweat the small stuff.”
“Have you ever seen Beau is Afraid?”
As always, who are you asking that to? There might be probably hundreds of people logged in right now.
Personally, I haven’t seen it, and had never heard of it.
“Doogie, irregardless of the reasons, I think you should cut people some slack on account of because they would of wrote better if they had the time to do so.”
Very poor excuse. I have very little time, and I do it, anyway. It’s not about lack of time; it’s about carelessness.
David Lynch dying puts a real cap on a shitty 2025.
An absolute fucking gut punch.
Like the Dance of the Little Man in “Twin Peaks.”
Doogie, Beau is Afraid is a piece of work that I personally consider to be under-appreciated. You might enjoy it. Original trauma kinda stuff you know. Like the idea that nobody consents to this life before they are in it. But here we are.
Interesting. Maybe.
Let’s at least wait til February before we call it.
In Donnie’s case, he doesn’t really need to.
“Have you ever seen Beau is Afraid?”
See? That’s what I mean about him largely being ignored, cyber. He asks a simple question, and I’m the only one out of all the people currently logged in to even bother to try to answer him.
Because I’m talking to you Doogie. No one else. We’re chatting you and I. It’s kinda charming.
Oh, OK. I didn’t know that. I don’t usually talk to only one person when in a crowd of people. But then again, I’m not usually in a crowd of people in the first place.
It’s cool, though. Have a good weekend, if I don’t see you.
Thanks Doogie. I’m going to a party tomorrow night called gimme a reason. DJ boufantboufant (sp?). Chicago house meets new Orleans bounce. It should be rad. The last time I was out here this party had me twirling. I’m also in town because of a burlesque festival. I’m working with one of the queens of burlesque on my next project and have a bunch of meetings with local producers and talent. I like to meet new people so the meetings are cool, but it’s business. You always gotta make sure the people you work with are decent people. It’s pretty stressful as I have to monitor my anxiety and resultant weirdness but I’ve become pretty good at harnessing it for my benefit. Mostly. Dancing with likeminded sexy gays really is the perfect release. I’m thinking you’re gonna have a great weekend too!
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