Knicks vs. Pistons: 1st 2020-21 Preseason Game Thread

Happy New Season!

Alan: This lineup would have fallen into the “highly likely” column. Mitch sitting, Elfrid to organize.
I would say, right now, that this lineup is my favorite for opening night.

(copied and reworded from the last thread, which was put to rest….)

This lineup would have fallen into the “highly likely” column. Mitch sitting, Elfrid to organize.
It is now the leading candidate for the opening night lineup.

Few random thoughts:

– I do suspect that Noel is a better overall defender than Mitch and likely makes fewer mistakes. Still not happy about it.

– I suspect this will be our starting lineup come opening night because it lines up with a lot of our predictions, except we assumed Mitch would start over Noel. I assumed he’d start over Noel even though Noel is better for now.

– I thought Bullock would sneak into the starting lineup. Perhaps his injury is still having an impact. Maybe Burks is just the shiny new toy. Burks can definitely carry more of the offense.

– Burks, Randle, and RJ all really like taking shots. There’s been some evidence that putting high usage players together increases their efficiency.

Anyway, how’s that for overanalyzing a preseason game? And we haven’t even started yet.

I can’t watch for my own mental health. Basically the only justification for Mitch not starting has been that he fouls too much… and Nerlens Noel is one of the 13 players that averaged more fouls per minute than him last year!!! He’s 22 years old and the best player on the team!!!

Also, this is definitely a “Let’s keep Randle all season because we can make the playoffs” lineup.

“Also, this is definitely a “Let’s keep Randle all season because we can make the playoffs” lineup.”

Or a “Let’s showcase our veterans in case someone’s interested”

good thing we signed mitch’s dad to keep the middle clogged for rj while mitch gets motivated

I was reading a quote the other day from Noel about how he was looking forward to mentoring Mitch. Or, you know, blocking him from starting, I guess. Either or.

guys… it’s preseason…. and besides who starts who doesn’t isn’t more important than who gets more minutes….

#I refuse to be anything but pessimistic. I’m really not sure how I’d handle the Knicks being good for more than 1 season at a time.#

I’m READY to ride the Knicks 2021 Tsunami!
If we suck i’ll enjoy it but if we’re good i may enjoy it even more!

Mitchell Robinson should have chosen the Wildcats and not the Hilltoppers. It’s really his fault.

After 9 fkn covid months of Non Knicks bball its a Win Win situation for me even if we lose by 75points! Even if the veterans play all 48minutes!
Even if Knox miss 20 3s in a row!
Staying healthy is the main shit right now.

The only thing you can debate about this starting lineup is Nerlens over Mitchell. I’ve been saying all week this would not be a surprise to me because Nerlens (despite the similar TOs and Fouls) is the more experienced and less green player. This is a very Thibs move. If Mitchell can’t take the job away from Nerlens, then it’s on him and a really bad sign for us unless Nerlens is breaking out also.

Randle is much better than people give him credit for. People are putting way too much weight on last season. You should draw a line through that entire season for virtually every Knick, bust especially Randle. That team was poorly constructed and coached. In a couple of months if Randle is still starting and Obi hasn’t taken the job from him, then maybe we have an issue. But Randle should be starting now.

I’ve been saying all week this would not be a surprise to me because Nerlens (despite the similar TOs and Fouls) is the more experienced and less green player.

Right, which is precisely why it is so foolish. “Noel still has the same problems that I have with Mitch, even though he’s a veteran, but I’m going to start Noel over Mitch because Noel’s a veteran.” It’s like Bizarro World.

The only thing you can debate about this starting lineup is Nerlens over Mitchell.

This part is more or less true. Randle’s not going to the bench so soon. RJ is playing his proper position finally. You can’t start a Frank/Payton backcourt, so the real SG question was Burks vs Bullock, and Burks was much better last year.

Still… I feel tired already.

“The only thing you can debate about that staging of Our American Cousin was that one interruption by an actor who wasn’t even in the show.”

I needed that laugh, Brian. Thank you.

It is what it is.

No pre-game?

No pre-game?

Weird, right?

I just played Black Sabbath Wicked World and The Wizard in my car to get fired up.

Z-man:
I just played Black Sabbath Wicked World and The Wizard in my car to get fired up.

I didn’t think school principals did such things!

I was listening to this just the other night, and my much younger girlfriend says, get this: “What is this? It sounds just like the WHITE STRIPES.”

I died.

ess-dog: I didn’t think school principals did such things!

I was listening to this just the other night, and my much younger girlfriend says, get this: “What is this? It sounds just like the WHITE STRIPES.”

lol 60’s-70’s music is 95% of what I like.

It was obviously always going to fail, but it’s still good that it failed.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/11/politics/supreme-court-texas-trump-biden

Ok time to do some preseason stretching :

Obi Toppin is the next Tracy MCGrady

Immanuel Quickley is the next Ray Allen

There, I’m ready to go !

Knicks defense looking elite

Mitch would have converted that alley oop

Okay, enough of these scrubs put the good players in

what could have been with killian…

I already can’t stand Randle!!!

At least Noel is legitimately a good player.

This Pistons squad is embarrassing. Hayes looks fluid, but not the best decision-making.

lol RJ still can’t fucking shoot

I guess RJ didn’t work on his shooting in the 10 month layoff…….

oh man that rj rerun

Well RJ can’t hit the broadside of a barn. Sheeesh.

get the 2nd unit in there

Oof, that was an ugly look for RJ.

Are those Clarke RJ bets locked in yet or what

No RJ Barrett slander formed against me shall prosper.

You guys are clearly unaware that RJ’s shooting coach picked him to have a breakout year.

This should probably have been expected. But yuck.

still taking bets!

Mitch is in!

I hate Randle so much. Does he think he’s not allowed to pass the ball?

Which is uglier?: RJ’s shot or Thibs’ face in a too-small mask?

Smith in before Frank.

Obi-1 sighting!

So it’s basically the most unwatchable personnel permutation possible. Woo-hoo!

Which is uglier?: RJ’s shot or Thibs’ face in a too-small mask?

Thibs, definitely. It is hard to take him seriously with a mask that stupid.

is there no panic from the frank brigade?

Mitch-Obi-Knox-Frank-DSJ

The Knicks offense seems to consist of lots of missed shots.

toppin… yes…

Frank!

Frank is officially our best shooter now.

mitch….says…get that weak shit outta here…

I don’t care how ugly this looks, it’s basketball!

But jeeze, it’s as if I was launching 3’s out there!

Obi Toppin is already a TON better than Julius Randle.

Turned it on. Toppin has two buckets and an o rebound there. Mitch had a block after Smith drawing a charge. And Frank hit a three.

I might call it a season.

Brian, that was really funny

Even Knox made a shot!

Again, the bench saves the starters’ asses.

Toppin’s looked pretty good out there. He’s already outplaying Randle.

How did Hayes look?

Toppin is going to win me over pretty quickly if this continues….

DSJr handling the point and Frank at the 2.

How did Hayes look?

He was fluid, but made some bad decisions. None of the Pistons could hit any shots, though.

Loved seeing the Piston see Mitch and basically nope his way out of the paint.

What a pass by Knox, but that’s also why they say that catching the ball in a good spot is so huge. Obi had that there.

Pros:
Obi!

Cons:
Everything else

Daaaaamn… that Toppin-Knox combo…

Okafor looking a hell of a lot trimmer than I remember. Shrugged Toppin off.

Obi has been excellent on offense and has been a mess on the defensive end and in rebounding. But overall, being good at one thing right away is better than most recent Knick lottery picks.

thenoblefacehumper:
Pros:
Obi!

Cons:
Everything else

It’s the only pro that really matters tho

I’m fantasizing about a Ja and Toppin core

Fucking lottery…,

Whan an Obi pass!

I think it was Frank who got caught defending Okafor in the paint.

Shit, I think you’re right. But anyhow, it was Mitch bailing out a teammate.

Good pnr there from Frank to Mitch.

Not sure I see the extra 15 pounds on Mitch. But I still love him.

Brian Cronin: It was terrible boxing out by Obi there to create that mess.

Boxing out? The first foul was a blatant moving screen and the second he was all over Blake trying to steal the ball.

Dennis and Frank both look decent thus far.

Hopefully Frank’s ankle is okay. He seemed to turn it a bit.

I spoke too soon.

The alley-oop game is alley-oops today

Ooph, Obi.

My sense is Obi is exactly as advertised

Good lob by RJ and Noel.

My sense is Obi is exactly as advertised

It’s kind of creepy, right? He’s like precisely what we expected, pro and con-wise. The only thing I was surprised by was how relatively smaller he looks.

Griffen blowing by Obi at the 4 spot is not a good look given the way the league is trending

Griffen blowing by Obi at the 4 spot is not a good look given the way the league is trending

That was the more worrisome sight that him being pushed around by Okafor.

Noel floor spacing

Who’s 25? Is that Quickley?

“RJ can make five in a row after missing five in a row.” Thanks, Wally. Insightful.

Another great move by RJ. I’m glad to see him go to the hoop while his shot isn’t falling.

Oof RJ. Jesus

Wow, what is that shooting motion? He looks like Markelle Fultz or DSJr last year.

Oof RJ. Jesus

The next time he gets the ball will be key. He can’t hit the outside shot tonight, so he should keep going to the hoop. Will he?

Noel has 8 and 6, Toppin 9 and 5 thus far.

Noel is functioning like a better Taj thus far. It’s so weird that he couldn’t get a better deal than what we gave him…

It looks like the problem is actually with the NBA. They just gave the coaches terrible masks.

Why won’t someone trade for Rose? He’s so out of place on this Detroit team.

How has no one offered Nerlens, like, 4/$24M yet?

Bullock with the Sideshow Bob hair now.

Didn’t he have that same look last year?

Are the Pistons going to play Blake 30 minutes in a preseason game?

Randle and Obi on the floor together. Randle is the 5?

How the fuck don’t you mention Grant’s brother, dude?

Barrett defending the point with Payton on the 2-guard. I hope Iggy and Quickly get some burn.

Nerlens has been offered 70 mil.

Very important to remember.

Randle playing the 5 is interesting. Probably his best position honestly and one solution to the question of how to get Obi the minutes he needs and also keep Randle involved at the level he expects. If Randle is playing some 5 and Noel is starting Mitch is getting squeezed for sure though.

Well at least we didn’t sign Bogdanovic, who looks as bad as RJ tonight.

Brian Cronin: Didn’t he have that same look last year?

I think he has extended it.

I mean, those 3’s by RJ are WIDE open. Unless we think he’s gonna become the next Ben Simmons he has to take them.

Thanks, Brian

This is what I expected. It’s still not fun watching your top young gun air ball everything

I know he’s young, but I’m more concerned about RJ than anyone, even Knox and Dennis.

He has to shoot well.

He’s too small/slow to get away with the bullyball he was successful with at Duke, and he can’t make up for that with rebounding/defense at his position.

Nice shot by Burks.

Yeah, can’t be happy about a wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide open Blake Griffin.

randle… the human turnover

What’s the over-under on the game where Thibs suffers a coronary?

I would like Thibs to try a legit, 4-out good shooter lineup, if that’s even possible.

“I know about the modern NBA.” Cue the Knicks taking half as many threes as their opponent.

ess-dog:
I would like Thibs to try a legit, 4-out good shooter lineup, if that’s even possible.

Rivers is injured. So yeah, that’s literally impossible.

Edit: Best I can do is Payton/Burks/Bullock/Obi/Spellman?

Great D by Payton.

“Randle dribbling into trouble.” How many times will we hear that this season?

Hayes taking a page out of countryman Frank’s book by continually picking up his dribble at halfcourt

There were people who thought Payton should not be the starting point guard on this team

Julius Randle does not make smart basketball plays. Ever.

It’s important to note that his best seasons seemed to be the ones where he had the least amount of control.

How has no one offered Nerlens, like, 4/$24M yet?

Been asking this for a few years now. The Sixers could have had him right next to Embiid for a decade, but, haha, Colangelo.

DRed:
Pistons gonna win 8 games this season

That’s a 1 win per center pace. Shoulda signed more centers

Nice drive by Barrett.

The Knicks do seem to me to be running more fast breaks than last year. Does anyone else have that impression?

Two nice J’s by Barrett tonight.

Nice three by Smith. Amazing block by Mitch.

One thing I’m going to enjoy is having a rim protector on the floor at all times with Mitch and Noel alternating.

The guy doing the crowd noise is also clearly working himself back into game shape. Sounds like he’s using a random number generator to pick the sounds.

DSJ is at least not broken anymore it seems

Is the NBA going to fine coaches for taking off their masks? We’re not the only one that hate Thib’s mask.

Mitch does some freakin uncanny things on D.

rj 6-8 after after that poor start…..

still taking bets!

From his line it appears Smith Jr. has been fine? How has he actually looked?

Z-man: Well that was true about Miller’s Knicks too,…

Miller’s Knicks let Elfrid Payton and Julius Randle do as they pleased and that, my friend, is how you beat yourself.

Z-man:
Mitch does some freakin uncanny things on D.

Everyday he does something amazing there. He really is a special talent. All he has to do is not foul out.

Came back to complain about fucking Wally, but y’all clearly beat me to it.

DSJ has looked very engaged and isn’t doing dumb things. Very impressed. Frank will be traded soon. Guarantee it.

I like this unit

Obi on offense is legit.

Obi Toppin even spins better than Julius.

Starting to watch now, how’s the team playing?

I like Smith trying to throw to Robinson, but, dude, it has to be at least a little close.

Toppin’s spins are so much sexier than Randle’s.

Also, I think Z-Man might have been right about Hayes.

Okay, now that was a dumb foul by Mitch.

Mitch with the brilliant foul near half court smh.

Man, Mitch is so fast.

thenoblefacehumper:
DSJ is at least not broken anymore it seems

Even his misses aren’t looking bad tonight

Frank and Mitch look like a nice defensive combination.

“Knox should be an elite defender.” Oh, Wally.

Mitch is like everywhere at once!

Whatever strength Mitch gained with his extra bulk he sacrificed his agility around the basket.

Knox has looked more aggressive and competent out there. *checks box score* yeah, he sucks still

If Frank is going to be in the NBA long-term it’ll be as a 2, so it’s good that Thibs seems to think that’s his role going forward

The star of the game tonight is Thibs. He’s got the team playing defense and hustling in the first pre-season game. They’re playing hard

Frank still looks fantastic on D

pepper:
anyone watching the Detroit telecast?

they just show solo dancing by the pistons dancing girls…good stuff…

Me. It’s way better than anything MSG puts on. Lots of music and dancing girls. Plus, their announcers aren’t bad.

pepper:
anyone watching the Detroit telecast?

they just show solo dancing by the pistons dancing girls…good stuff…

Yes.

While enjoying that part it occurred to me they could just pre-record all those clips for the season and no one would know the difference.

Toppin has gotten sloppier as the game has worn on.

Feeling himself too much.

we want quickley

LOL Jesus Frank.

E:
Frank still looks fantastic on D

He does but watching him try to run a pick and roll there was…not pretty.

Obviously Thibs wants a win in the books.

So we have to watch this same matchup in 2 days?

I may have to make other plans

Randle…sucks the life out of a team

Piston’s broadcast >>> Ours

We have to listen to shitty blues music from Dolan affiliated bands.

Pistons fans are listening to Bel Biv Davoe and Pharell Williams.

Seems like RJ is shooting the Pistons back into this game

our guards…collectively…cannot shoot…that is problematic

Randle bringing the ball up and just falling down is peak Randle

The Pistons doing this with their scrubs is not great.

randle…with the dagger

Brian Cronin:
The Pistons doing this with their scrubs is not great.

btw who aren’t our scrubs?

Wally is basically like a Knicks propaganda robot. It’s bizarre.

I like Saddiq Bey

Brian Cronin:
Wally is basically like a Knicks propaganda robot. It’s bizarre.

There’s a lot of guys like that around the league. I hate all of them.

Bey looks pretty damn good.

Villanova guys seem to do well in the NBA…

I like Bey from his game to his mutton chops

Weird Stat of the Night: Frank led the Knicks with 3 offensive rebounds. Wait, what?

solid debut for toppin… the rebounding #s are good and good to see him make buckets near the basket…. the passing was there too altho he was kind of doing some crazy stuff towards the end that’s not going to work out for him….

rj was solid… forcing shots early but getting to the rim and finishing later…. even showing off a midrange game which looked good… 7-12 from 2pt land is superb…. 3pt shot was no good but the basis for his game improving is going to start at the ft line and at the rim… and namely not forcing the issue there…

noel and mitch are going to be really good defensively for us and cover for a lot of mistakes most nights….

things are probably going to look sloppy for awhile…. this looked like a summer league game….

The Glass Half Rebuilt:
It’s gonna suck when Austin Rivers breaks up the DJ/Frank back court. I like those guys together a lot. Maybe Frank pushes Bullock out of the rotation but I’m not hopeful.

Well, Frank and DSJ combined for 8 turnovers. They’ve got to get those down.

Not bad for first game
Youngsters had moments of promise and nostalgic shittiness as well

Randle somehow had 6 assists.

All the Knicks players looked exactly like we thought they would.

Obi looks like he belongs.

What’s that? The Bulls have looked atrocious in the couple minutes I’ve watched

Z-man:
Um, something interesting is going on with the Rockets…

More like the Bulls are sending us a message that they’re going to be every bit as bad as we are. Nice to see Wall bouncing back though.

Z-man: That Demarcus Cousins and John Wall seem healthy and with James Harden that could be interesting…

almost as intriguing as the Noah Vonleh and Luke Kornet pairing in chicago..

wall…cousins..harden…gordon…is potent offense

It’s even more painful considering how many good announcers we’ve had over the years. We had Marv Albert for 4 decades announcing next guys like Al Trautwig and John Andaraise and they transitioned into Breen and Clyde for the last decade+ and we’re going to end up with Wally’s dumbass when Clyde decides to hang it up.

It’s like a really slow moving runaway train. We know it will be a disaster when it finally crashes, but we can’t stop it.

not to put on anybody, but this would be a great game for an italian mensa-level recap….

It must be stopped.

The only possible way is if some young hot shit announcer comes around or if Wally gets hired by an even dumber organization. I don’t think either will happen.

Mike Crispino is a fine play-by-play guy, but the radio analyst, Brendan Brown, is just decent and he has no name recognition.

I just saw the top-5 highlights from the bubble…#1 was a going under then right move by Jamal Murray that was astonishing. That and his 360 left move (also in the top 50) are all-time classics.

The fact that we managed to win easily tonight while having:
21,8% on 3p
47,4% on FTs
and
24 TOs
is pretty remarkable.
Thibs and his D may surprise us this season.

Melo just made 4 vintage shots in a row. He also made a nice defensive play. Looks really good.

That Demarcus Cousins and John Wall seem healthy and with James Harden that could be interesting…

Preseason? We talking about preseason?

they really cannot have wally regularly doing games…

Logically, you’d be correct, and yet…

The guy doing the crowd noise is also clearly working himself back into game shape. Sounds like he’s using a random number generator to pick the sounds.

this made me smile…

it’s been said a bunch already, but, yeah mitch really has some unique physical skills…his eye hand coordination has got to be completely off the charts…

i am sooooo glad i don’t root for the pistons…what a change of coaching fortune dwayne casey has had…

Early Bird:
Mitch is about to lead the NBA in steals this year.

What’s the per game record?

Alvin Robertson, 3.67/game in 1985-86 for the Spurs: https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/stl_per_g_season.html

Most encouraging thing for me was the defense. Granted the opposition was very poor and didn’t play their best players much at all, but you could see the outlines of something good. This is a young, athletic team and if Thibs has them consistently flying around on D they’ll at least make it hard for some teams. Not putting to much weight on it yet but encouraging.

Most discouraging has to be RJ unfortunately. Played much better in the second half but this game from him could easily have been in March. We’re looking for a huge leap forward from him this year and this was an inauspicious start from that perspective.

Alan:
I take two consolations from RJ’s game:

1)He looked just as horrible shooting in his first summer league game last year, and then got better quickly. He’s been off a long time and is still susceptible to nerves.

2)He came out in the second half and did the thing a guy with his skillset should do when the jumper clearly isn’t working: he attacked the basket early and often, and ended up with a respectable shooting line for the night despite the first half fiasco.

Oh, and also, Thibs is doing him no favors putting him in that fugly starting unit with Elf and Randle. I’d enjoy watching him be part of that bench mob with Frank, Mitch, and Obi.

To your third point, it will probably take some time for Thibs to find combinations that complement RJ’s game, and if the beginning of the season produces ugly losing basketball in service of determining who the pieces are going forward so be it. On a positive note, it will be a scrappy team that will be fun to watch.

I thought both teams were so terrible it was almost unwatchable at times.

Shooting tends to be below par early in the season anyway, but this year it’s likely to be exaggerated because camps are shorter. I wouldn’t put too much weight on shooting stats in pre season or even the first couple of weeks of the regular season. They’ll probably be down for a lot of players. Maybe even more so for the non bubble teams that were laid off longer.

Personally, I didn’t see much to be excited or negative about other than they gave a good effort on deeefense and seemed to have some goals in mind on offense. That’s all Thibs. We got a huge upgrade there.

On the downside, there is going to be a serious logjam at the guard position, especially when Rivers comes back and Quickley works his way up. They have so many guys with different strengths and weaknesses and none of them may be good enough to clearly lock in their position as the starter or backup.

IMO, someone is going to have to be traded. It’s going to be on Thibs to decide whether he wants to prioritize offense, defense, younger players or keep a couple of vets. One or two of these guys has to go, if not early, then by the trade deadline.

Hopefully they’ll be less sloppy in the next game.

You’re not going to win a lot if your starters only make 2 3 point shots, On the other hand, it’s going to be very hard for teams to score in the paint against this team. Hopefully we’ll see some of the fringe guys get some minutes on Sunday

We played a godawful team last night and they used more non-rotation players than we did. Cleveland is terrible on paper too. We won’t know anything about this team until we’ve played some games against good competition. We open the season against the Pacers, Sixers and Bucks. Reality should hit pretty hard then. Watching some starting units from good teams last night was revealing. Since they just stopped playing recently, they looked sharper than normal in preseason.

Don’t get too excited about the defense. DET has maybe the worst offense in the league.

We have 2-3 elite defenders between Frank, Mitch, and Noel.

We have 2 solid defenders in Payton and Bullock.

Everyone else kinda sucks on defense.

I liked the effort, especially from our bigs (7 steals!), but don’t expect these results.

Obi really moves like Amar’e. It’s that hunched acceleration with a power dribble. Love it.

It’s still too early to say…could have been some opening night jitters…but sure, RJ’s shot looks ugly. It’s no tthe form that bothers me as much as the wild inconsistency. His misses are absolute bricks. It’s as if he just can’t repeat the motion in a controlled way with his hands, arms and legs in sync. That’s very worrisome. Maybe the Demar DeRozan route is the best one for him.

Knick fan not in NJ: I couldn’t get any of my hopes for streaming options to work and finally switched to the Tencent Sports app. Pros are it’s free and the streaming quality is good.The big con is all the commentary is in Chinese.

Once the season officially starts the games on there won’t be all free, only some selected games are. (Most of the time are games played in the west coast as the time fits Chinese viewers better) Others will need a league pass thingy so if no other options maybe can ask a friend to help you buy a tencent pass. It also eliminates some ads with the free stream.

What’s funny to me was the rockets game still has no video stream now even after Morey moves on. Imagine how pissed tilman is gonna be if rockets will be ignored by Chinese money for the new season.

One more thing was I watched tencent reporter covered the draft and did an interview with Obi. During which Obi appears quite likable, attributes all his development to his coaching staff in college. I am hopeful for this kid.

Early Bird:
Don’t get too excited about the defense. DET has maybe the worst offense in the league.

We have 2-3 elite defenders between Frank, Mitch, and Noel.

We have 2 solid defenders in Payton and Bullock.

Everyone else kinda sucks on defense.

I liked the effort, especially from our bigs (7 steals!), but don’t expect these results.

RJ is a very decent defender. Rivers isn’t bad. That’s 7 possible rotation defenders. I think we have much bigger problems on offense. Even our so-called shooters are nothing special. And in today’s league where guards are hitting 30 footers like FTs, no level of D is gonna make much difference. Our defense is good enough to keep us in games, but we just won’t be able to score enough unless someone like Knox, Frank, RJ, DSjr or Obi goes off from deep. And that is highly unlikely.

I hope we see some of Quickley and Iggy in the next game. Burks, Payton and Bullock are so boring to watch.

The Glass Half Rebuilt:
Once RJ Barrett stopped trying to out-alpha Julius Randle he got his act together and played a lot better. I cannot say the same for Julius Randle. That guy never makes the smart play; it’s either an alternative play that has a positive outcome or a dumb play that leads to a turnover or a forced missed. And it always happens out of the spin move. Sadiq Bey and Killian Hayes are rookies and had zero issues guarding our 6’9” 250 pound 20 point per game scoring power forward.

If last night is any indicator of what the regular season will be like, we’ll need to remove Julius Randle or Elfrid Payton in the closing minutes. They hijacked the offense to run a terrible two man game and we only won because we were playing the Pistons. Considering Elfrid Payton is actually useful, I think it’s best if Obi Toppin closes games instead of Randle.

I think you are being too hard on Randle. He played fine last night. Didn’t jack up 3’s, had 6 assists, played passable defense, rebounded very well. He also went 0-3 from the line, so that won’t last. His game is ugly, but I actually liked what I saw.

Frank probably had a good Synergy game…no blocks or steals but a menace at the point of attack. The 5 rebounds in 19 minutes are encouraging. Two of his 5 misses were on a crazy sequence under the basket, I think Mitch had his miss there as well.

Hubert: They’re not good but they’re not terrible. 22 win teams are usually teams full of kids. If you have a bunch of mediocre vets, coached up and playing hard, and motivated to make the playoffs, you’re not going to be absymal.

We are one of the youngest teams in the league.

Frank showed decisiveness and confidence.
His D was pesty from start to finish and if you exclude a few awkward dribbling at times he seems better than last season to me.

DSJ was SURPRISINGLY very decent.
And his Jump shot looked legit.
Maybe MARauf should work with RJ too.

DSJ took a charge! I can’t remember him ever doing that in a game, but it’s also not a stat I’m having much luck Googling.

Knew Your Nicks:
#I saw nothing last night to suggest that we will be anything but bad.#

I saw a 36-36 record team on the floor but probably it was the withdrawal symptom’s adrenaline talking!

No, it was the we’re beating a bunch of scrubs talking.

Alan:
DSJ took a charge! I can’t remember him ever doing that in a game, but it’s also not a stat I’m having much luck Googling.

Macri said DSJr took 1 charge in his 500+ minutes last year. He took 1 in his first 3 min last night

Z-man: RJ is a very decent defender. Rivers isn’t bad.

I think RJ is bad. He’s just not the complete zero we expected.

I gleefully forgot about Rivers for a moment. He takes DSJr, Bullock, or Frank’s spot in the rotation. I don’t really want him in the rotation.

Z-man: I dunno, he took 11 shots in 29 minutes and had 6 assists. Hard to spin that in any way as a negative.

The box score doesn’t account for plays like this that only register as a missed FGA. The guy is not good for this team at all.

On the Ex-Knicks Watch:

Melo channeling his youth, 8/13, 3/3 on threes, 21 pts in 23 minutes.
Kanter an unusual 1-5, but 11 rebounds in 21 minutes.
Gallo a decent 14 points in 20 minutes off the bench.
Y’all saw Mr. Ellington go 1-3 for 3 points in 17 minutes.
Kenny Wooten gets 8 minutes on the Rockets, goes 1-3 (a 3-pter!) with one rebound.

And on the Tyrese watch, a quiet 2-4 in 20 minutes for 5 pts; 3 reb, 2 assts. Early days, but so far the Obi pick is looking okay.

Dennis had 4 turnovers and 2 assists

I decided to invest 127$ for the League Pass one team deal. I’m glad I did… right now. The interface is nice and streams well over my desktop. I watched the game and then read this thread and saw the up and down. The beginning was ugly but, most importantly, of the two non playoff teams we saw, the Knicks were clearly superior. They had the better young talent, the deeper bench and didn’t have two players from a bygone era set to play huge structural roles.

All the kids looked stronger, and more developed. Mitch was sensational in decisive moments. Bullock with two automatic open threes to stretch the lead (if I remember correctly). RJ with tough buckets down low in the second half. This team needs one more player to have a chance of winning more nights than it loses IMO but the supporting cast is starting to round into shape. Even the much maligned Knox had the assist of the game to Toppin for the dunk. That kid absolutely floats off the ground. Reminds me of Dr. Dunkenstein, Darrel Griffith. The one more player we need is the great facilitating PG but for this year we got what looks to be an excellent finisher.

I hope I don’t regret my investment in a few weeks. If they make a habit of being way down by the end of Q1 I’ll be bummed. That makes it unfun. I just hope they keep my interest this year and that I don’t feel bored and demoralized. I don’t know what that equates to as far as wins and losses. Tanking is so boring. I want Cade Cunningham but I also want some fun now. Is that possible?

I don’t know if it was a thing, but it seemed that on several occasions on defense the bigs tipped the ball out to the FT line area where the guards picked it up.

Knox’s best moments were a nice exchange with Obi, a great 1-on-1 block, and a good drive across the lane for a scoop finish from 3 feet. He looked less floppy overall than last year, but nothing to get excited about yet.

Z-man:
He had a decent overall game. There’s no disputing that.

Sure, if you want to make it a box score discussion that’s fine. But the next time the Knicks play, pay close attention to how many times Randle doesn’t make the pass to the open shooter/cutter, how many times he spins into a double team, or loses the ball trying to dribble through defenders. We couldn’t trade him partly because his contract is bad value, and the other part is he’s not a good NBA player.

I’m just waiting for the nonsensical complaints that his assists are down this season. Now that he doesn’t have the ball in his hands as often as the PG (as many people wanted) his assists will be down.

I literally complemented Thibs in the game thread for taking him off the ball. There’s no conspiracy against ya boy. If he plays well people will be happy.

The Glass Half Rebuilt: Sure, if you want to make it a box score discussion that’s fine. But the next time the Knicks play, pay close attention to how many times Randle doesn’t make the pass to the open shooter/cutter, how many times he spins into a double team, or loses the ball trying to dribble through defenders. We couldn’t trade him partly because his contract is bad value, and the other part is he’s not a good NBA player.

The point is, he really didn’t do that much of that stuff yesterday. He’s going to do some spinning….so do a zillion other players in the league….that’s part of his game. The difference needs to be that he doesn’t initiate the offense. You act like he turns the ball over a ton…that’s just not true. For a relatively high usage player, a turnover rate of 14% is not crazy high, pretty much in the same ball park as Giannis. It’s all about efficiency for Randle, at anything below .600 TS% he’s more of a liability than an asset. But at that level, you can live with some ugly spin moves.

I think Toppin will struggle once the league scouts him. He will need to improve in a lot of areas to be a star. But the potential is definitely there. I like the way he is thinking pass, even though those crosscourt passes he likes won’t work in the NBA. You can be sure that teams will be ready to force him into those and will pick them off.

I think we saw a little bit of that just from the first to second half of his first preseason game, honestly. He’s definitely a bit one-note right now. It’s a really good note, though. One of the things that worries me is that what Toppin really needs to stand out is the three ball, and yet the Knicks didn’t seem all that interested in shooting threes in general.

Nice deal by the Mets for James McCann, they get him for $10M AAV and he should be worth 2-3 WAR for at least a couple of seasons. That’s one major hole they plugged with a very reasonable contract.

If they are able to snag Springer and give the SS job to Gimenez they could be a very nice defensive team up the middle all of a sudden.

Z-man:
I think Toppin will struggle once the league scouts him. He will need to improve in a lot of areas to be a star. But the potential is definitely there. I like the way he is thinking pass, even though those crosscourt passes he likeswon’t work in the NBA. You can be sure that teams will be ready to force him into those and will pick them off.

I mentioned early in the week that he did a lot of scoring in transition in college and that’s party why his efficiency was so high. I’ve been concerned about that a bit. You aren’t going to get that as often in the pros. Then he mentioned that himself yesterday in an interview. I think he said he only got 1 transition basket in all of the Knicks practices. Still, he did show some skills getting shots for himself. So that was encouraging. We need some 3 point shooting though. His job is going to be stretch PF.

i’ve been keeping an eye on the college schedule and while they haven’t had huge issues yet with game cancellations it is starting to escalate…. they are facing an increasing amount of postponed or cancelled games due to covid in the last couple of weeks…. before it used to be about 5-10% of the schedule in a given day… they are probably 20-30% now….

hopefully the nba has a plan to mitigate this but this has some implications for the early part of the season…..

Deeefense: I’m just waiting for the nonsensical complaints that his assists are down this season. Now that he doesn’t have the ball in his hands as often as the PG (as many people wanted) his assists will be down.

When he has 0 assists and 4 turnovers in a game you’re going to hear about it.

That’s a lot of money!

cybersoze:
Thibs is known as a defensive tactician, so who am i to criticize, but if this defensive scheme happens “by design” and we intentionally leave two shooters open on the 3P line, i’m having a hard time agreeing to this.

https://twitter.com/JCMacriNBA/status/1337858753920708608?s=20

That’s on DSjr and Knox…they hedged too hard and were slow to get back. You can’t commit 100% to the roller, especially DSjr whose man is an easy kickout away from a wide open 3. Knox has a bit more time to get back to the corner as the pass there would be riskier and less direct.

But that in a nutshell is what bad defenders do….they overcommit, they get caught in-between or ball-watching or with their back to the play. they are a half-step slow to react, they reach in, they buy pump fakes, etc.

The other problem on that play was a miscommunication in the PnR between Obi and Frank. They both went with the ball man, which in my opinion should have been Frank’s because he got held up on the screen. If Frank get in front of the roller, no reason for the weak side help to come in as far, especially DSjr.

Yeah, that’s probably it, they are still learning that play and in that case it was poorly executed. But hey, so good we can discuss a proper defensive scheme, last year i think Fiz only used one defensive scheme… anarchy! 😉

Joinone: Once the season officially starts the games on there won’t be all free, only some selected games are. (Most of the time are games played in the west coast as the time fits Chinese viewers better) Others will need a league pass thingy so if no other options maybe can ask a friend to help you buy a tencent pass. It also eliminates some ads with the free stream.

What’s funny to me was the rockets game still has no video stream now even after Morey moves on. Imagine how pissed tilman is gonna be if rockets will be ignored by Chinese money for the new season.

One more thing was I watched tencent reporter covered the draft and did an interview with Obi. During which Obi appears quite likable, attributes all his development to his coaching staff in college. I am hopeful for this kid.

Joinone, thanks for the info. It’s a shame they will charge, but not surprising. Signing up seems like a good idea because streaming from the US only works when VPN is working well and it often isn’t. I will ask a guy at work for advice. I am sure he will help. He loves Basketball.

keyontae johnson is a fun player to watch and he is one of the best returning players in college…

i hope he’s ok…. very talented and unique guy….

Oh, the Malachi Flynn FOMO is real….

Flynn is the oldish guy from San Diego who some thought about drafting instead of Quickley?

Theo Maledon a nice line too.

Ahh, yes, the preseason. When it dawns on the Knicks they drafted the wrong guy.

Also, Ja Morant. Would have been good to draft him

What I thought about Flynn before the draft was, “If he’s lucky, he’ll be taken by Toronto and they’ll turn him into the star he would never be here.”

But was he SEC player of the year?

Sure it will all work out.

Bane was actually a top ten finisher in three point field goal percentage in Division 1.

Berman has suggested that Quickley wasn’t the top guy on Perry’s board at that stage of the draft, but we don’t know about Perrin. We have to hope that he endorsed the pick, too. Because as desperately as this team needs shooting, it needs fundamentally competent point guard play even more, and Flynn looks ready to already provide that.

Also, Okoro closed that game strong. Been an entertaining weekend so far from a lot of 2020 draftees. Our lottery guy included.

Alan: Because as desperately as this team needs shooting, it needs fundamentally competent point guard play even more, and Flynn looks ready to already provide that.

Our fundamentally competent point guard currently plays for Oklahoma State and I won’t let you convince me otherwise.

https://nypost.com/2020/12/12/significant-knicks-change-is-eye-opening/

I know Wiseman hasn’t played yet, but how crazy is it that none of the top 4 players drafted have started for their teams? Edwards, Ball, and Patrick Williams all came off the bench.

LaMelo’s line is hysterical. 16 minutes, 0-5 shooting, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 turnovers, 2 personal fouls. I don’t even know what to make of it. I know, first NBA game, pre-season. Still, he’s gonna be a fun one to watch, one way or the other.

Man, looking at the Pistons’ roster, I just don’t get how it all fits together. It doesn’t make any sense. Like, what is the upside for them if, say, Grant excels? Bey is clearly the future at the #3, they traded away by far their best asset to get Bey and then…signed Grant for $20 million a year to be their small forward? In a league that is trending small? For a coach whose offense is, you know, ancient? Grant’s not fucking Lebron. He’s a guy that you need to find shots for, while Casey literally seemed to just tell him, “Go shoot whenever you feel like it.”

Casey is obviously talented in certain areas, but in a league where offense has become so important, having a guy who doesn’t know how to coach a modern NBA offense (to the point where a great team fired him and his successor took the same team MINUS DeMar DeRozan and made them a much better team last season) is just such a liability that even a guy who can get his team to play hard (like Casey definitely does) seems to be a net negative.

Highlights of LaMelo’s first game. Let the young Jason Kidd running the break comparisons begin.

djphan:
pritchard.. flynn… bane and terry all were really obvious picks instead of quickley….

it’s not like these guys couldn’t shoot 3s if that’s what you wanted…

What stands out about about those 4 guys compared to Quickley that makes it obvious? toss em in a salad bowl and pick again – they all seem somewhat fungible. What stands out for Quickley is that he got to the line more frequently than those other guys, and hit his FT at better rate than the other guys. That said they all have relatively similar numbers except Bane who is taller and rarely shoots free throws.

They picked the guy they wanted at this spot. I hope they were right in their conviction. I wish I was a good enough scout to understand the obvious differences, but I’m just a fan.

Sly: What stands out about about those 4 guys compared to Quickley that makes it obvious?toss em in a salad bowl and pick again – they all seem somewhat fungible.What stands out for Quickley is that he got to the line more frequently than those other guys, and hit his FT at better rate than the other guys.That said they all have relatively similar numbers except Bane who is taller and rarely shoots free throws.

They picked the guy they wanted at this spot.I hope they were right in their conviction.I wish I was a good enough scout to understand the obvious differences, but I’m just a fan.

Let me guess:
-they shot better from 2 in college
-they got more blocks and steals in college

To be fair, for sure I would have taken Terry and Bane, and strongly considered the other two. But Quickley is growing on me.

Let’s all remember that preseason means slightly more than Summer League.

as a team bane member what stands out to me is his ferocious 3pt shooting resume combined with his size and very hi bball iq. he is like the grant williams of wings, pretty well cooked already without a sky hi ceiling but some critical nba friendly traits. bane and iq are like a caricature in the wingspan/size continuum. i think bane is the only nba player with a wingspan less than his height aside from teammate brooks. i’d have gone with the t-rex in this case but i’m not really all that up to speed on iq. flynn looks pretty interesting, too. i am also still on team nesmith for somewhat similar reasons, and he even has arms. i watched a disgusting number of grizzlies games last yr bc of melton, ja, clarke and jjj (yes, sadly, in that order) and this year if bane, konchar, and/or jontay get time that’s only going up.

LaMelo is a big dude who can really move well with the ball. His shot is an abomination but he threw some gorgeous passes in the parts of that game I watched

What stands out about about those 4 guys compared to Quickley that makes it obvious? toss em in a salad bowl and pick again – they all seem somewhat fungible.

they all contribute across many box score metrics which point to deeper and diverse skills…. you’d rather pick from this bucket than the kentucky reject bucket because it’s proven these type of guys are more likely to have nba careers because not everything will translate…. there are players with high 2p% that struggle to score inside in the pros.. there are guys that have high def #s but don’t get as much…. what you’re left with is hopefully an nba player….

proving you can do all these things in college means you could develop these things in the pros…. but if you can’t do it vs weaker competition how do you expect to get better in the pros? you can’t develop your way out of terrible which we know from frank and knox…. and similarly we can turn dred into our gm but not our starting pg no matter how much money and time we throw at it…..

in order for quickly to succeed his 2p% would need to be a complete aberration…. and there’s nothing that I’ve seen to say that… if you watch his games he throws alot of desperate attempts at the rim hoping for a whistle… you will probably see that whenever he does play….

Let me guess:
-they shot better from 2 in college
-they got more blocks and steals in college

A lot of it boils down to these things, yeah. They have been shown to matter a lot! If Quickley is better than this group it’ll be a major bucking of an empirical trend. Wouldn’t be the first time, but what bothers me is it feels like the front office’s reason for believing it’ll happen in this case is “Quickley went to Kentucky and the other guys didn’t.”

Hope I’m wrong!

I’m still quite high on Cade, but I’m beginning to get a little worried about his lack of burst.

In the games I’ve been able to catch I’ve been struck by how positively normal he looks, at least compared to the hype. It’s hard to argue with the results like you said but he doesn’t feel quite like a no-brainer at #1, at least not yet.

So far I’d say Cade, Suggs, and Mobley have separated themselves from the pack. Jalen Johnson has been pretty good and probably starts the next tier. I haven’t gotten a chance to watch a single minute of Moses Moody, but his numbers are pretty impressive.

Everyone else gets a TBD from me.

thenoblefacehumper: In the games I’ve been able to catch I’ve been struck by how positively normal he looks, at least compared to the hype. It’s hard to argue with the results like you said but he doesn’t feel quite like a no-brainer at #1, at least not yet.

So far I’d say Cade, Suggs, and Mobley have separated themselves from the pack. Jalen Johnson has been pretty good and probably starts the next tier. I haven’t gotten a chance to watch a single minute of Moses Moody, but his numbers are pretty impressive.

Everyone else gets a TBD from me.

Sounds like another meh draft…

Early Bird: I don’t disregard these elements and I trust scouts to do a reasonable job. But looking at the school name on the front of a jersey is not a valid method of scouting.

Looking at the pick outside of a vacuum, about half the players we’ve signed between the NBA and g-league are Kentucky players. If Quickley went anywhere else, I’d believe the scouts saw something. But he didn’t, he went to Kentucky.

Worth noting the mock draft boards often reflect scout opinions too. Quickley was usually projected midway through the 2nd round.

This is all fair. We actually agree that he was not worthy of being picked over some other guys and that the Kentucky thing is creepy. But finding guys undervalued by draft boards and avoiding guys who are overvalued by draft boards is what scouting is all about. Jordan Clarkson is a good example. Draft analysts did not like him, probably for similar reasons that Quickley was not rated well. Here’s someone from back in May who eventually settled on him at #33 but who I think gave a fair amount of consideration to his defensive PPP stats and said he would likely be “severely undervalued” and could be a steal relative to his projections:

-Efficient overall defensive player (allowed 0.70 PPP – 85th percentile, opponents aFG% of 36)
-Efficient PNR defender (allowed 0.58 PPP – 80th percentile, opponents aFG% of 28)
-Above-average athlete in terms of speed, quickness, and vertical

Z-man: Draft analysts did not like him, probably for similar reasons that Quickley was not rated well. Here’s someone from back in May who eventually settled on him at #33 but who I think gave a fair amount of consideration to his defensive PPP stats and said he would likely be “severely undervalued” and could be a steal relative to his projections:

Worth noting that at 33, the Knicks could have drafted him with the 2nd round pick they traded away.

Also, their big board had Maledon at 18, Oturu at 19, Flynn at 20, Jones at 25, Tillman at 29, Ramsey at 30 and Bane at 31. All those players were still available at 25.

I don’t agree with a number of those rankings, but someone pointed out Flynn & Bane. Both were ranked higher even by a board relatively high on Quickley.

Early Bird: Worth noting that at 33, the Knicks could have drafted him with the 2nd round pick they traded away.

Also, their big board had Maledon at 18, Oturu at 19, Flynn at 20, Jones at 25, Tillman at 29, Ramsey at 30 and Bane at 31. All those players were still available at 25.

I don’t agree with a number of those rankings, but someone pointed out Flynn & Bane. Both were ranked higher even by a board relatively high on Quickley.

Agreed in principle, but a) there really wasn’t certainty that Quickley was going to be there at #33. We all know that some teams hold their cards close, and that teams who play that game get burned all the time (see: Celtics and Tyler Herro). Same with Vernon Carey Jr., who they obviously thought would be and then poof! he was gone.

It’s also true that every one of those players had serious question marks and were drafted where they were for a reason. There’s also a reason why Devon Dotson went undrafted, despite gaudy college numbers.

At the end of the day, no one in the 2020 draft was an NBA-ready player without concerns, certainly no one taken outside of the lottery. So it is more about whether a players development has peaked and plateaued (say, Cleanthony Early, Stanley Johnson, Jimmer Fredette), or is still occurring at a fast rate (say, Fred VanVleet, Bam Adebayo, Kawhi Leonard.) The lower you go in the draft, the greater the premium is on picking guys who are not essentially done developing. That’s why I have mixed feelings about Obi…he’s old, but on the other hand, he’s improved dramatically over time and doesn’t seem to be hitting a ceiling. With Quickley, it seems like he was challenged for playing time as a freshman, and improved over the course of his sophomore year to being one of the best team in the country’s go-to guy (see strat’s post) who opposing coaches in his conference recognized as its MVP…and it seemed as if he wasn’t done improving. The boxes for character, motor, bball-IQ, unselfishness, and work ethic all seem to be checked off.

For the Knick’s sake, I hope Quickley is an outlier where those fancy stats don’t accurately predict his success or lack of it. Drafting in the mid twenties, a reasonable ceiling might be dependable rotation player.

For the record, I don’t hate Quickley as a prospect. I’d just like he a lot more at 33 than at 25 and after Flynn, Bane, Tyrell Terry, and probably some others were off the board.

What I do hate is the process that went into choosing Quickley.

As to Weiland, in 2016, his top-3 PG prospects were Kris Dunn, Gary Payton II and Denzel Valentine. He eventually had Jamal Murray 1 spot higher than Denzel at #12, and had Fred VanVleet at #32, but he had guys like Skal, Onuaku, Devonta Davis, and Zhou Qi in his top-10 (and Bender at #11). Yet Macolm Brogdan didn’t even make his his top 60, he had DeJounte Murray at #44 and Pascal Siakam at #28. This is not to say that he’s not “good” but there are clearly gaping holes in his work

this is what happens when you let perfect get in the way of good…. just because it’s not perfect doesn’t mean it’s not good.. that’s why i keep saying this stuff isn’t a crystall ball… if you have other work you want to point to that’s better then you should present it… other than that… how do you know it’s not good?

what are the alternative and what track record does that have? ed weiland famously was the only who thought jeremy lin was an nba player… and he was right…. and it just so happens his model is really good at picking out those sleeper types…. it also gets a lot of things wrong too….

just because you don’t get everything right doesn’t mean you have a license to just use anything you want…. that doesn’t work in any other field….

djphan: and for every scouting report that you can pick for one guy who gets it right for one particular guy (e.g., jordan clarkson)…. they can’t replicate that because they don’t even know how they are successful…. these analysts are not even watching all the games… they are reporters reporting on what gm’s and scouts tell them… that’s what chad ford was/is… he’s not an analyst…. same thing with givony… schmitz is actually an analyst but he only breaks down film and doesn’t make too many judgements of a player…. the stepien guys are capable of some great analysis but they are basically just a meme now….

Some of the film guys are indeed analysts…they use numbers to start and then look for film that goes more deeply into the numbers and they get into what the numbers are actually saying. For example, there are lots of reasons why a given player is a poor rebounder for his size or position (i.e. low box-score rebounding numbers). Is it a problem with boxing out? Is it about motor? Is it about low strength/high center of gravity? Is it about other players on the team being primary rebounders? (this was recently discussed re: Russell Westbrook depressing his teammates’ rebounds and Robin Lopez incresing his teammates’ rebounds.)

Clearly, a) we’re at the apex of knowing what can be derived from a box score, and b) at the infancy of what can be derived by other quantifiable metrics. I see it as a natural evolution…and many serious analysts are incorporating non-box-score data into their work. I humbly agree that I have not seen a study yet that proves that PPP/Synergy data is more predictive than box-score derived metrics, but neither have I seen anything saying that PPP/Synergy data is less predictive. I only know that Weiland’s work is full of gaping holes, and I don’t see a way that those holes are going to be patched up by rejiggering the box-score metrics.

It’ll be up around 6ish.

djphan: you do realize how ridiculous this sounds right?

It doesn’t sound ridiculous (and I would suggest that you be careful with your adjectives) because just about every serious scout is using PPP data. It’s not like i’m talking about some bizarre new undertaking, or doing some Trumpian “prove that there wasn’t voter fraud.” What’s curious to me is that you are so doggedly dismissive of PPP data in defending a model that rated Skal, Onuaku, Devonta Davis, Zhou Qi, and Dragan Bender as top11 prospects. All 5 of those guys are either complete busts or end-of-rotation players. The actual NBA draft had only 3 players arguably in that category (Chriss, Bender and Maker). You would think that you would have ample reason to look well beyond Weiland’s work, it that’s the best he could do with box score stats in 2016 at the height of his powers.

In an interview with 538, he said the followng just before the 2016 draft:
“If a player tops all of these benchmarks, he’s a decent prospect. If he falls below in any one category, that’s a red flag. The further below the number he falls, the less of a prospect he is. That’s just the starting point, though — I’m flexible in cases like that of a young player who has improved during the year, or a player who has been better in past seasons. The benchmarks aren’t a strict line, but more of a guideline. I try to look at the whole picture…I’ve been doing it this way since the 2007 draft, so it’s probably time to update the system a little for the changing NBA. I hope to get on that this summer.”

I wasn’t able to find anything since then…I wonder why…

In Quickly, your model dismisses his prospects because he doesn’t get blocks or steals. Yet PPP data from Synergy suggests that he is actually a decent defender, and it looks at specific instances where the opponent’s PPP in a given situation is directly attributable to him. If he’s in the 80-90 percentile range in those categories, why would it matter as much whether the opponent’s possession ends in a missed shot, or a non-steal/block turnover, or a steal/block by someone else on the team?

While I don’t know the answer because I doubt that I could find data about other players who had similarly high ratings in these categories but low ratings in steals/blocks.

What I DO know is that in 2018, a Weiland disciple added “wingspan differential” to his analysis. Sounds like there are lots of holes to patch up…why not take a look at Synergy stats?

JK47:
I’m a Raider fan in the NFL. Jon Gruden is our GM. He makes “Immanuel Quickley” picks all the time— he drafts guys in the high first round that he could have gotten in the second round, and drafts guys late in the first round that he could have gotten in the third. Some of the guys he drafts turn out to be good, but it’s still a waste of draft capital.

Quickley might turn out to be a nice player but it would have been worth the gamble to try to snag him at 33. He probably would have been available, and you could have gotten another interesting piece at the end of the first round instead.

If he turns out to be good, it’s still a Jon Gruden-style bad process, good result.

Even at 33, why take him at all if there’s a high probability of him being a bust? I think that part of the argument against Quickley is that he wasn’t a good pick even at 33!

I don’t think the process was great…although let’s remember that the same guys turned #27 and #39 into #23 and then turned that into #25 and #33. So it’s not like a complete comedy of errors took place. And to be fair, the gap of 8 pick slots is not as cavernous as what you are describing with Gruden.

Great discussion Z-man and Diphan

I think the boxscore tells you most of what actually happened that’s critical, but it’s obviously missing a few important things, doesn’t tell you the why these things happened (coach, system, role, teammates, strategy), doesn’t tell you how to weight each factor properly, doesn’t tell you how to fit players together to maximize the “team level” output etc..

You can try to fill in some of the blanks with more data, but you’ll still be missing a lot of things critical to the analysis.

On top of that, when you are talking about drafting, you are talking about teams playing different strength schedules (another monkey wrench on top of an already complex analysis) and the fact these are kids at different stages of physical development, playing the game for a different number of years, with different work ethics, etc..

You can argue about this crap all day.

The bottom line line is that it’s hard enough to value the pros that you see all the time correctly. That’s why we have so many disagreements unless there’s a big difference. When it comes to draft prospects it’s an educated guess.

Sometimes things are so complex the best way to learn is by trial and error and seeing what actually happens and what works on the court.

Thibs also says he wants to play Obi and Randle together more tonight than the one minute they shared on Friday.

I would not bank on MKG being in the rotation, even if/when he beats out Iggy or Spellman for the final roster spot. Rivers is gonna play when healthy, though. Burks’ minutes are safe, since he’s one of the few guys on the roster who can create his own shot. Frank’s probably are? DSJ and/or Bullock probably seem most at risk, though Quickley is the wildcard. If he’s hot right out of the gate, then the backcourt rotation becomes a real jigsaw puzzle, even if Burks sometimes slides up to 3 when RJ is on the bench.

In other words, no way that Thibs goes beyond the 11 who played thus far plus Rivers and Quickley. That seems perfectly reasonable. They seem to need a backup C more than a wing, so Spellman has a good shot if he works his ass off. Then I’m guessing Iggy is #15 but it won’t matter much…he’ll be back and forth to the g-league unless there’s trades or injuries.

I just laid out his 2016 results,

that is one year… he has drafts that go back to 2007…

did you look at any one year of how synergy stats translate to the nba?