Over/Under: Porzingis’ TS% .54% (last year 51.8%)
Fisher-Cohen: OVER! KP’s major issues last season were stamina and the triangle offense. The triangle is hopefully pretty much gone, and the new coach has a history of success utilizing what should be Porzingis’s bread and butter: pick and pop. Frye and Markieff Morris thrived under Hornacek because he recognized the value of pick and pop, which is hopefully something he can repeat here in NY even if his guards are a lot worse.
The thing is, KP wasn’t a great three point shooter last year — 33% for the season. Things get interesting though when you look at his splits. Porzingis shot 38.7% from three in the first half of games and just 27.8% in the second half. If he can maintain that 38.7% shooting through entire games, he’s up to a 54.3% TS%. I’m hopeful that he can accomplish that.
Plugh: I’m also saying, emphatically, OVER! Hornacek understands how to use his new toy, as Max pointed out, and you can already see KP taking advantage of his new crossover, his comfortable spots on the floor, and his improved shooting mechanics. Over the summer it’s like they took a beautiful piece of sculpture and painted it in technicolor. Does that even make sense? Whatever. Go with it.
I also think the addition of penetrating point guards is going to improve his opportunities by leaps and bounds. You already see Porzingis passing up the contested, straight on three in favor of moving the ball, finding better position and shooting on the second go around. Last season he often felt the need to shoot from 5 feet behind the arc because he knew he wasn’t going to get another decent touch. Rose and Jennings will create havoc in the lane and get him some open looks from three, not to mention some sweet lobs around the rim. When I see how Brandon Jennings has turned Kyle O’Quinn into a close-range offensive threat, I start drooling thinking about KP’s run with the second unit.
Kurylo: I tried to determine this out as objectively as possible. So I took a look at all of the 20 year old rookies over the last 10 seasons that played 2000 or more minutes. Sorted by ts%, Porzingis was a spot above the median with 51.8% ts%. In the middle was Derrick Rose at 51.6%. Then I looked at a similar list of 21 year old second year players. The median of this group is Kyle Lowry (53.1%) and DeMar DeRozan (53.0%). Again Derrick Rose appears on this list, a spot above Lowry with 53.2%.
Based on this data, it’s possible that Porzingis tops 54% ts%. As you can see Monta Ellis did it, and he’s just 3 and a half spots above the median. Nonetheless the evidence isn’t in Zinger’s favor, so I’ll stick with the UNDER. Sure call me a pessimist, but one of us has to be right.
| Rk | Player | Season | Tm | TS% | WS | PTS/36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Harden | 2010-11 | OKC | 0.598 | 7.1 | 16.4 |
| 2 | Jonas Valanciunas | 2013-14 | TOR | 0.579 | 6.7 | 14.5 |
| 3 | Serge Ibaka | 2010-11 | OKC | 0.579 | 7.6 | 13.1 |
| 4 | Danilo Gallinari | 2009-10 | NYK | 0.575 | 5.6 | 16.0 |
| 5 | Eric Gordon | 2009-10 | LAC | 0.571 | 3.2 | 16.9 |
| 6 | Brook Lopez | 2009-10 | NJN | 0.57 | 7.9 | 18.3 |
| 7 | Gordon Hayward | 2011-12 | UTA | 0.568 | 4.9 | 14.0 |
| 8 | Gary Harris | 2015-16 | DEN | 0.566 | 4 | 13.8 |
| 9 | Greg Monroe | 2011-12 | DET | 0.563 | 7 | 17.6 |
| 10 | Ben McLemore | 2014-15 | SAC | 0.552 | 2.5 | 13.4 |
| 11 | Mike Conley | 2008-09 | MEM | 0.548 | 4.5 | 12.8 |
| 12 | Rudy Gay | 2007-08 | MEM | 0.546 | 5 | 19.6 |
| 13 | Monta Ellis | 2006-07 | GSW | 0.545 | 4 | 17.4 |
| 14 | Chris Paul | 2006-07 | NOK | 0.537 | 8.8 | 16.9 |
| 15 | Derrick Rose | 2009-10 | CHI | 0.532 | 6 | 20.3 |
| 16 | Kyle Lowry | 2007-08 | MEM | 0.531 | 3.4 | 13.6 |
| 17 | DeMar DeRozan | 2010-11 | TOR | 0.53 | 3.2 | 17.8 |
| 18 | Tristan Thompson | 2012-13 | CLE | 0.516 | 5.2 | 13.4 |
| 19 | Wilson Chandler | 2008-09 | NYK | 0.515 | 3.1 | 15.6 |
| 20 | Rajon Rondo | 2007-08 | BOS | 0.515 | 7.2 | 12.7 |
| 21 | Brandon Knight | 2012-13 | DET | 0.511 | 1.1 | 15.2 |
| 22 | Jerami Grant | 2015-16 | PHI | 0.506 | 2.1 | 13.1 |
| 23 | Michael Beasley | 2009-10 | MIA | 0.505 | 4.6 | 17.9 |
| 24 | John Wall | 2011-12 | WAS | 0.502 | 3.5 | 16.2 |
| 25 | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 2014-15 | DET | 0.501 | 2.8 | 14.5 |
| 26 | Jared Sullinger | 2013-14 | BOS | 0.497 | 3.9 | 17.3 |
| 27 | Brandon Jennings | 2010-11 | MIL | 0.493 | 3.9 | 16.9 |
| 28 | Russell Westbrook | 2009-10 | OKC | 0.491 | 6.1 | 16.9 |
| 29 | Harrison Barnes | 2013-14 | GSW | 0.486 | 3.2 | 12.1 |
| 30 | Tyreke Evans | 2010-11 | SAC | 0.482 | 1.6 | 17.3 |
| 31 | Julius Randle | 2015-16 | LAL | 0.482 | 1.6 | 14.5 |
| 32 | Elfrid Payton | 2015-16 | ORL | 0.478 | 2.2 | 13.1 |