But again: I am not pushing the idea that the Knicks’ shooting is unsustainable. I’m just telling Strat that we are shooting above our weight as much as the Cavs are and suggesting that he’s not being logically consistent.

I am being logical.

If you predict somethng will happen and it does, it’s way more likely to be sustainable than if it’s a surprise.

I predicted Towns would be more efficient and rebound better at C in a 5 out team than he did at PF next to Gobert.

I predicted that the extra spacing and more efficient scoring of Towns relative to Randle’s less efficient ball stopping play would lead to several other Knicks being more efficient.

I predicted the Cavs would be better this year because they got a coaching upgrade, are young and were injured for much of last year, but the extent of improvement from 3 specifically for a few players is so far out of line with past performances I think it’s WAY less likely to be sustained.

Both teams may show some decline from here, but I’d be willing to bet at even money that if that’s the case, the Cavs will decline more.

The Cavs are very good, but they are not better than a healthy Celtics team. The Celtics are just not at 100% yet with KP out again and not even in form yet and Holiday also out.

I’d add that I predicted that one way the Knicks could get past the Celtics is the combination of KP being injury prone and Holiday and Horford having so many miles on them they could be set for a decline that would open the door this year or next.

My concerns about the Knicks are actually less about the Knicks and more about the other teams in our conference.

As things stand right now, we would play the Celts in the second round. That would represent a worst case scenario for me.

In addition, teams like Philly, Atlanta, Indiana, Orlando, Milwaukee, and to a lesser degree Miami, are kind of laying in the weeds thus far this season. Maybe I’m a bit of a nervous nelly, but if/when these teams get to full strength and in full playoff mode, I think any of them would be formidable first round matchups for us.

I see our biggest issue right now as being the combination of bench depth and Thibs’ unwillingness to commit to a certain amount of bench minutes no matter what the outcome of the game.

That issue is magnified by Mitch’s uncertainty. A healthy Mitch going into the playoffs is a must. And if not Mitch, then another bench big who is better than any of Sims, Precious, or Hukporti.

As we are seeing with even the Wiz and Magic, other teams seem to throw waves of players against us. Meanwhile, our starters are playing 40+ minutes against the likes of the depleted Wizards.

I guess this era of good feelings is not the time to worry about such things. Alas…

I see our biggest issue right now as being the combination of bench depth and Thibs’ unwillingness to commit to a certain amount of bench minutes no matter what the outcome of the game.

As we are seeing with even the Wiz and Magic, other teams seem to throw waves of players against us. Meanwhile, our starters are playing 40+ minutes against the likes of the depleted Wizards.

I agree. The schedule is about to get much harder, and the team doesn’t have a bench that Thibs will play. This is hurting the team long term, and in the current games as well.

Z-man

I agree with you.

IMO several teams in the east are better than their records right now and would be formidable opponents for us in the playoffs. Even if we would be the betting favorite against most of them other than the Celtics, the margin is narrow enough that we could easily get beat in an early round. I think that’s the nature of the NBA now. There are a handful of terrible teams and a few a weak ones, but the gap between a lot of the better teams is not very wide. It’s partly an illusion due to injuries.

Either Mitch coming back close to 100% or trading him for another bench upgrade is what we are depending on to fill out the 2nd unit. We’ll find out more as we get closer to the deadline and Mitch’s work starts getting more serious.

I must have missed this so maybe others did as well. Prior to the Magic game last week, Thibs said this about Mitch:

“Overall, he’s doing very well,” Thibodeau said. “Still hasn’t been cleared for practice, and that’ll be the next step, and so he’s getting closer to that. But when, when that is, I’m not quite sure. There’s still some benchmarks that he has to get through, but he’s done a terrific job. He’s light, he’s lean, he’s worked extremely hard, so we just want to make sure we’re patient and let him work his way through it.”

Thibodeau also added that Robinson has begun to run but isn’t sprinting, which would be another level for his recovery process.

I like that he described him as light and lean. He might benefit from shedding some of the muscle mass he put on in the lase couple of years.

Thibs’ bench phobia is my only concern right now, because we’re seriously risking to have our main guys spent or injured come playoffs time.

I should add that I’m not sure, given his history, that Thibs would use “new” player/s if we struck a trade deal, unless we let him choose who to pursuit.

From a broader standpoint, parity reigns supreme in the League* and health will have a deciding impact, as it did in many of the last postseasons, plus the trade deadline could change things.

* With rare exceptions (maybe only Boston) playoffs are a matter of rock/paper/scissors, teams are so close that specific matchups and combination of strenghts and weaknesses make the difference.

Just when Banchero is getting close to return the Magic could lose Suggs to a wrist sprain.
They’re having lot a bad injury luck this year…

Just when Banchero is getting close to return the Magic could lose Suggs to a wrist sprain.
They’re having lot a bad injury luck this year…

Yeah… sort of like when Mitch went down, Randle went down on a total fluke, OG went down, Mitch went down on an Embiid yank after missing 4 months, OG went down again and finally Brunson broke his hand.

Jonas Valanciunas for 2nd rounders, Precious, Sims, and Kolek. Who says no?
https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/278574/Jonas-Valanciunas-Bruce-Brown-Jordan-Clarkson-Expected-To-Be-Available-For-Second-Round-Pick

“Who says no?”

Me.

Jonas Valanciunas for 2nd rounders, Precious, Sims, and Kolek. Who says no?

I say NO.

JV is one of the few target I see as “realistic” (it doesn’t mean that I like it) but:

1. No way I’m gonna give them Kolek.

2. There’s a problem of redundancy when Mitch comes back (I don’t want KAT playing only at the “4”)

P.S. Due to our bench’s anemia, the Jordan Clarkson rumors are back again…

Patrick Williams in Chicago may be shaking loose…is he someone whom could fill the void at power forward for us?

I don’t get the interest some have in Jonas. He’s been a pretty good center through his career but him as he is now doesn’t address our needs. He’s too slow footed to be truly impactful on defense and his biggest strengths, rebounding and interior scoring, are things we’re already doing fine at.

Patrick Williams in Chicago may be shaking loose…is he someone whom could fill the void at power forward for us?

That’s an interesting option, he hasn’t developed much if at all in the last few years and is a bad rebounder but he can hit the three and seems to be a solid defender. Chicago has a dumb front office but I’m not sure if even they would trade him to us for anything off our poopoo platter.

I’m a bit surprised Geo, he’s in the first year of a 5 years extension (the 5th a PO).

Anyway, he gets 18M, very hard for us to match the money unless you trade Josh for him (or pair Mitch and Deuce)

Hey cyber, how much do you know about beaches and towns in the Algarve area? Any recommendations for a romantic retreat with the missus?

Howdy Z-man, i know the Algarve pretty well, as i’ve went there on vacation with my parents since i was born and in most years we would go two times, in easter and in the summer. But after almost 30 years i stopped and since 2000 i’ve only been there 3 or 4 times. Maybe it’s better if i ask my sisters, because they still go there once a year. I’ll get back to you.

Thanks, cyber! I’ll email you with more details!

I am very reluctant to give up on Mitch unless it’s for a clear upgrade to who he is when he’s healthy. I love him both as a complement to KAT and as a backup to juice the second unit with ORebounding, lob threat spacing, and rim protection.

Jonas ain’t that. Neither is Patrick Williams.

I know Mitch’s ankle is a risky proposition, but he is also a valuable expiring deal next year. Unless an offer too good to refuse comes along, I would take my chances that he comes back reasonably healthy. Otherwise, do something creative like throwing that protected 1st at the Nets for Day’Ron Sharpe.

I’m not sure the FO is eager to make a trade now, even if they’re probably as annoyed with Mitch’s unavailability as we are.

Anyway, if we want to spit out fake trades, I don’t think it’s a matter of interest in Valanciunas, just that when you put together our specific needs, trade assets, cap situation and the players that are/could be available, it’s a very narrow needle to thread, and JV happens to check some of the boxes (not too expensive contract*, could fill the backup C spot and allow Precious to play exclusively the “4”).

For instance, a one-for-one trade for Mitch (2nd round picks aside) would create enough cap space for us to sign another minimum contract veteran and maybe add some scoring punch to our bench if Thibs is willing to extend the rotation.
Far from ideal and I’m not sure I would do it, but to me it’s “realistic” compared to some of the names that are swirling around…

At the end of the day I’m in Z-Man’s camp, barring another setback I’d rather wait for Mitch and hope for the best.

* But he’s signed for two more years after this one (amounts: 10M, 10.4M, 10M).

It’s possible to get Jonas w/o giving up Mitch. I just think that contract is very reasonable. He could essentially replace Precious in the lineup.

I don’t know much about Jonas on D. How does he compare to KAT? Precious? Jericho? I-Hart?

How about Thibs actually plays his bench more before theorizing who we need on the market? It’s actually getting ridiculous. Someone needs to get on him about it. Kolek could absolutely get the lost Payne minutes which I don’t what happened to that and why Thibs all of a sudden is playing him less. Dadiet/Ryan can spell the wings 5 minutes for fuck’s sake. I actually think the KAT minutes distribution is fine but something has to be done about the wings minutes of Bridges, OG, Hart. They are too valuable to run to the ground this early.

If we do end up going to the market, to me, we need a scorer who can create on their own. Deuce is great, but is to inconsistent to do that. I think our bench defensively can hold their own but offensively leaves a lot to be desired.

At the end of the day I’m in Z-Man’s camp, barring another setback I’d rather wait for Mitch and hope for the best.

Count me in!

JV looks cooked to me, and if he is, Thibs will play him as much as he plays Jericho, so it’ll be a waste of a trade. Let’s wait for better opportunities.

The way the game is played today, and at this stage of his career, I don’t think JV is a player that helps you to win. Just look at the trouble we already have with young uber-athletic teams.

Any player we bring in should increase out team speed, or at least not decrease it. Jonas is one of the most lumbering C’s in the NBA. For that reason, I wouldn’t want him at any price.

I really wish Thibs would give Dadiet like five or six minutes a night, I feel like it’d be good for his growth and at bare minimum he can stand in the corner and shoot threes on offense.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6026132/2024/12/30/donte-divincenzo-timberwolves-knicks-nba/?source=emp_shared_article

Good article about DDV finding his way in Minny. Will always root for the GOAT one-year Knick, except against the Knicks.

If you don’t want to include Mitch, making the salaries work for Valanciunas isn’t impossible, but it’s hard. I’m assuming none of us want to give up Deuce or Kolek, so you’re looking at Precious/Sims/Payne. Arguably not worth it for us considering we’d have to include draft capital, and the Wizards might not want to waive the guys necessary to make it work anyway.

I wouldn’t include Mitch because Valanciunas will be 33 by the playoffs and has considerably lower upside. You’d have to think there’s basically no chance Mitch contributes, like, ever again, to consider that swap.

Probably not a fit.

We probably need two players.

One of them may be Mitch, but the other is a 6th man scorer type.

If we trade Mitch for another backup C, that would be OK if he can both defend (which is what we need) and score. But if he can do both he’s probably a starter quality player and out of our reach.

If we trade Mitch for a 6th man type, we are back to needing a defense oriented backup C.

We’ve been using Payne in the scoring role. He’s been doing a good job so far, but it feels like we are still missing another scorer.

I was hoping one of either Kolek, Dadiet or Hukporti would break into the rotation by mid season, but right now that doesn’t seem as likely as I hoped.

The flip side to the rotation annoyance is that the kids don’t get a chance to experience game situations when they come in with 1:30 to go. Standing around waiting for a shot clock violation to run the game out is not conducive to growth.

I’d love to see an unwritten rule where are least a few guys (Kolek, Huk) come in with 3-4 minutes to go when up over 10, and more come in, and around 4-5 minutes to go, if up 20. Maybe they shit the bed and give up a ton of threes and lose. But I’m betting not.

I think our bench problem is 75% Thibs and 25% personnel. I don’t think we need to make a change unless it’s an opportunity too good to pass up.

Once Robinson is back our bench is quite good and while Shamet is a bit weak as a 10th man and we don’t have much depth 11-14, overall our bench is solid. The biggest thing we need is a switchable wing, which is why I think we should sign Okeke or Warren as soon as the 15th spot is available.

This is more about Thibs’s unwillingness to lean on the bench than any problems with the players on it. I am afraid it is just his mentality to underutilize his bench players and bringing in better bench players might not really make a difference in our starters minutes anyway.

If you compare our bench to the best teams in the league we are not that far behind.

Our Bench:
McBride – Robinson – Payne – Precious – Shamet – Kolek
Boston:
Pritchard – Horford – Hauser – Kornet – Queta – Walsh
Cleveland:
Levert – Wade – Strus – Niang – Merill – Jerome
OKC:
Caruso – Hartenstein/Wallace – Joe – Wiggins – Mitchell – Williams
Dallas:
Marshall – Gafford – Dinweddie – Grimes – Kelber – Hardy

I don’t think we are far behind any of those groups. McBride and Robinson are excellent bench players, as good as any in the league, and Payne and Precious are good as the 8th and 9th men respectively. We are a little thin 10-14 but Shamet is fine, Sims is passable in a pinch, and our rookies could step up if needed.

Depth is always been meaningless with Thibs, plus quirks tends to get worse with age and this year he’s stretching it even further.

I’ve made peace with it and my ulcers are thankful… 😉

NBA Power Rankings now have Knicks third in the league.
YMMV…

Jonas could just be had for so cheap… BUT when Mitch comes back (did anyone see the video of him jumping on and off the cooler?) I think Thibs has options to either play Bridges or OG (even Hart) with the second unit like he tried with RJ, if RJ had been good. Or even staggering KAT and JB more often.

You also have a lot of choice at center between Precious, Mitch, and KAT so yeah a trade may not be imperative.

As far as the kids, it’s nice to see them at least utilizing the G-League to get Dadiet and Kolek some burn.

Speaking of which, I’m going to see the Westchester Knicks on NYD. Hopefully all the kids are there.

I don’t think a typical microwave 6th man type is necessary at all. We can stagger our high-usage starters to make sure no bench unit is too barren offensively and we already have a few guys that can Frankenstein that role around a starter or two e.g. Deuce, Payne, and Shamet.

We could use, in no particular order, a stout rebounder not named Karl, a rim protector (our league wide rank in DFG% – Average FG% in shots taken near the rim actually isn’t that bad, 14th, but also isn’t good), and a good POA defender.

One thing that gives me a lot of hope with this team in the playoffs is our excellent shooting at all levels even fts.

Across a 7-game series, shooting should mostly even out, and so I think it was wise for Leon to make that a strength.

Therefore, even though he brings a lot of good things to the table, Mitch kind of flies in the face of this. Even for backup minutes, it might make more sense to trade him for a Horford type (if one can be found), so we can continue to have a shooting edge in our games.

“Even for backup minutes, it might make more sense to trade him for a Horford type (if one can be found)”

Al Horford is one of the most complete players of the last 25 years. He’s much more than just a C who can shoot. Who did you have in mind?

Obviously we won’t be able to find Horford or even an aging Horford… but maybe someone like Vucevic? His defense leaves a lot to be desired, but maybe Thibs can coach him up… he is having a career year on offense and could back up KAT or play beside him. He’s not ideal, but I think it will be hard to find someone younger for a Mitch platter.

One thing that gives me a lot of hope with this team in the playoffs is our excellent shooting at all levels even fts.

The Knicks are the only team that is top 5 in Rim, Midrange, and 3pt shot making this year— BBall Index (@The_BBall_Index) December 29, 2024

Strange but true, from the Power Rankings piece:

“Through Thanksgiving, the Knicks were 1-7 when they lost the first quarter. Since Thanksgiving, they’re 5-1 after losing the first, with their win in Washington on Saturday improving them to 5-8 in games they trailed by double-digits. For the season, they’ve been the league’s best third-quarter team (plus 18.9 points per 100 possessions) by a healthy margin.”

Boy, that ‘coming out flat after the half’ thing they had going last year still sticks with me, so glad to see that. Now we just have to WIN a few first quarters, please.

Also from that piece, on our collective least-favorite topic:

“They continue to close games with all five starters on the floor, and their starting lineup has now played 136 more minutes (539) than any other lineup in the league. There are only 32 players who’ve played at least 1,000 minutes this season, and the Knicks have five of them. (No other team has more than three.)”

ess, respectfully, Vucevic would be at the bottom of my list of players we need. He is a terrible defensive C, and at 34, I can’t imagine him being coached up by anyone.

I like the idea of a poor man’s Horford, but Vuc seems like an entirely different animal, and one who doesn’t seem to fit our needs at all.

And that’s the rub. Guys with Horford’s intelligence and skillset, even at a lower level, are just not available. Maybe Kelly Olynyk is about as good as you might find for what we can afford, but I’d rather roll the dice with Mitch.

a rim protector (our league wide rank in DFG% – Average FG% in shots taken near the rim actually isn’t that bad, 14th, but also isn’t good),

This is entirely on KAT, who is terrible near the basket while the rest of our Cs have been exceptional. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but every C on the roster but KAT is around top-10 in dfg% near the rim. Either we’re playing KAT at the 4, Precious as the de facto 5, or we’re suffering through KAT’s terrible rim protection.

For what it’s worth, Jonas Valančiūnas has more APG in fewer minutes than Horford and a career 34% 3pt%. OK I’ll stop. 🙂

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=compare+al+horford+and+jonas+valan%C4%8Di%C5%ABnas

The thing is, it’s very hard attempting to invest in a bench player when your coach is Thibs.

As such, I’m not high on a Vuc trade simply because he wouldn’t get enough minutes for what you’re paying him. I’d probably prefer to trade Mitch for draft capital and a semi-useful 13th man-type (and a bit of cap space).

i’d wish most for a young defensive minded 4/5…

most of our “pieces” are reliable/known players…I wouldn’t expect someone young and good coming in too soon…

josh, precious, deuce, mitch would be the trade/salary pieces…not sure what we have draft wise…probably not too much for another season or so…

or, go with what we got, hope mitch helps with rim protection and rebounding…

OG is due for a good shooting game. Whenever I start whining about his shot selection and finishing ability in non dunk situations, he usually shuts me up. 🙂

I think all the Knicks need is a relatively healthy Mitch to be the best in the league. To me he is the exact spice needed for the mix. He is absolutely dominant defensively when healthy, a demon on the offensive boards and there is a plethora of offense already. As to defense, a trio of Mitch, Bridges and the Menace will be sublime. If Hart has to move to the second unit sometimes just proves how much talent this team has. I can’t wait to watch Mitch and that big Kat play together.

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