Knicks Morning News (2024.12.23)

Listening this morning to Sam Vecenie’s podcast talking about the bind the Kings might find themselves in with Fox, since apparently Klutch is angling for him to go elsewhere in the offseason if he doesn’t think Sacramento can contender. (And/or if he doesn’t make All-NBA this year, since if he does, the Kings can pay him so much more than anybody else.) Vecenie’s partner wonders in hindsight if the Kings might have tried to get in on KAT if they had known he was really available, since Sabonis is a better version of Randle. Which in turn takes us back to the discussion about the actual KAT deal. Did the entire league know Minnesota was willing to move him, and this was just the best deal the Wolves could get that would 1)alleviate some of their upcoming financial crunch, and 2)theoretically keep them competitive in the here and now? Or did Leon make this happen without the rest of the league even knowing that KAT was gettable?

Towns obviously wanted to be back in New York. Did he have a way to exert any leverage? Did the wolves do him a solid perhaps?

Considering how surprised Towns was by the deal, I can’t imagine they consulted him, Owen. Though you may be right that they didn’t want to send him to a place they suspected he didn’t want to go.

Towns obviously wanted to be back in New York. Did he have a way to exert any leverage? Did the wolves do him a solid perhaps?

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6008884/2024/12/20/karl-anthony-towns-timberwolves-return-knicks-trade/?source=freeweeklyemail&campaign=602288&userId=6142506

Seems to me like KAT had no input, but who knows? More likely a combo of getting back good value (?) and having a less extreme media narrative. Seems like KAT was truly beloved in Minny, so shipping him off to the Kings might have seemed too cold of a move.

Still, it’s shocking that they would rather have parted with the face of the franchise who happens to be a first-class human being than a weirdo mercenary like Gobert or lesser players like Naz or McDaniels. Seems like they could have gotten an even better return for Gobert. Just a bad, bad decision, even with a better version of DDV.

If I were the GM of the Kings last summer, I would have pegged KAT and Sabonis at similar levels, particularly when you factor in health. And given Sabonis’ fit with the organisation I would not have engaged in KAT talks assuming I knew they were going on. If Sabonis is not gettable, Julius becomes the best and likely only option–and if they can’t strike a deal with Leon, KAT stays put. So I think that Minny (not Leon) made this happen without the rest of the league knowing.

Soooo…Shamet’s back.
Does this mean that when he plays, and if he makes a bad play, that we can yell “AH SHAMET MAN!”?

*shrugs and walks away*

SI has an interesting trade proposal.

Essentially Poeltl for Mitch and Precious + a pick or two. I don’t think Ujiri would go for it, but I sure would be intrigued. It would shorten up our bench even more, but Poeltl is damn good.

Based on what we know, It seems like DDV was a pretty important part of the KAT deal. He’s had a disappointing season for them so far, but no one knew that going into the deal.

Trading Gobert probably made no sense to them. The reason they added Gobert to begin with was because they were skeptical of being able to contend with Towns at C. They gave up so much for him, there’s no way they would have gotten back as much. So it would have looked bad to bail out so quickly. Their thinking was probably they could get 85% of Towns with Randle and with DDV added in be similar to last year. Towns just exploded forward this year at C and makes it all look worse.

Ugh no. I think Mitch & Achiuwa alone is an overpay for a backup 5. Even one as good as “Purtle”. Nonetheless, I’d be thrilled to add him, but it would mean we’d have to add a true 4 who can shoot better than Achiuwa

“So I think that Minny (not Leon) made this happen without the rest of the league knowing.”

If so, it only makes Connelly look even more dumb. Perhaps kind-hearted, but dumb.

Listening this morning to Sam Vecenie’s podcast talking about the bind the Kings might find themselves in with Fox, since apparently Klutch is angling for him to go elsewhere in the offseason if he doesn’t think Sacramento can contender.

The only bind Sacto is in with Fox is if they don’t move him soon. He is looking at a 55M/yr extension this off season and should by some miracle he makes All NBA he will be eligible for the highest contract in league history.

All for a low efficiency (.558 TS%) high volume chucker (33% career 3 ball) over 16,000 minutes.

Poeltl’s stats might be suffering because of the Raps have been decimated by injuries and he is at a 19% usage. But he’s durable and available and can do pretty much anything Mitch can do just as well if not better.

Anyway, I don’t know if the trade is even possible given our cap situation.

Fox is really really good – the Kings’ main issue is that with Sabonis at the 5 they’re just not good enough on defense, and Sabonis himself is not the supercharger of offense that KAT has proven to be. Leon and co then surrounded KAT/Brunson with Bridges/Hart/OG – shooting and sort-of playmaking on offense, and versatility/greatness on defense — whereas the Kings went all offense I guess? with Derozan and Malik Monk in the starting lineup. Their young talent isn’t great (Keegan Murray seems to be regressing) – i am not sure what they do at this point. Prob not enough assets to make a real move, but they seem too invested to tear it all down. If you ask me I would do the latter.

Minnesota also likely thought that Naz Reid was capable of, to paraphrase Z-man, providing them 80 percent of what KAT gives them for a fraction of the cost. That has not quite worked out yet, though the fact that Randle starts and consumes so much usage may make it hard to know for sure.

Minnesota also likely thought that Naz Reid was capable of, to paraphrase Z-man, providing them 80 percent of what KAT gives them for a fraction of the cost. That has not quite worked out yet, though the fact that Randle starts and consumes so much usage may make it hard to know for sure.

Having Naz was part of their thinking, but without Randle they would have taken a huge hit because then you don’t have Naz on the bench playing a huge role backing up both PF/C. He would be the starting PF giving you even less than Randle.

I think their miscalcuation was that the spacing with Randle is worse than with Towns and that impacts Antman and others negatively. And of course Towns is better on offense at C and rebounds better so it looks even worse “stats wise” this year. Towns would not be having this kind of year if he was still playing next to Gobert.

Then of course DDV has been bad (why I am less sure but he could just be unhappy and want out). If DDV was shooting like last year, they would have a better record and there would be less panic over the deal.

Ultimately, they may trade both Randle and DDV and try to bring back a stretch PF that fits with Gobert and someone that actually wants to be there.

Precious and Dadiet for Reid and DDV. Let’s do it. (Mostly kidding. MIN would have to be ultra-stupid to take us up on such a thing.)

We are prohibited from re-acquiring DDV directly from Minny until next year. If I remember correctly, he’d have to be waived, then acquired by a second team, then traded, or something like that.

I was surprised not to have heard anything about pre- and/or post-game interactions between DDV and Brunsons (both Jalen and Rick)/Hart/Mikal stemming from last week’s game.

In olden times, no one would have expected to hear about such things, but the way the media reports things these days, it was weird *not* to hear about it.

Doogie, there was reporting that Julius left the arena immediately after the game, without talking to either his former teammates or the media. Between that and the KAT homecoming stuff, there may just not have been much bandwidth left for Villanova reunion reporting. Though I was at least curious to see if there was any followup to Donte beefing with Rick Brunson.

We won the trade because we’ve made KAT at the 5 work and they couldn’t.

It seems like other than Randle who is in his own head, the Wolves were in “let KAT have his night” mode. I suspect that Randle took it as a “F U Julius” thing, from the crowd for sure (he was actively booed) but from his teammates as well (doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of love lost there.) I certainly didn’t see an edge to either Gobert’s or Ant’s game. Not to mention that in addition to Wolves fans all in KAT’s corner, there was the usual sizeable contingent of Knicks fans in the building (you can tell how many whenever Deuce goes up for a jumper.)

Trap game tonight, then an interesting test on Christmas Day. Looking very forward to that one!

think they wanted the flexibility from randle’s $30mm player option and donte’s movable deal. sabonis locked in at $47mm a year from 26-28 doesn’t go far enough to solving their repeater tax constraints after paying $96mm in luxury taxes this year to justify dealing kat. obviously would prove untrue if they ended up giving randle a sabonis-adjacent deal but that seems unlikely to me.

“We won the trade because we’ve made KAT at the 5 work and they couldn’t.”

The result of it “not working” was a trip to the conference finals.

Yeah, I’m not ready to do a victory lap quite yet on us solving KAT at the 5. We’ve seen it work incredibly well in some games here, but we also saw that in Minnesota prior to the Gobert trade. Until we prove that a defense with him playing center can make a deep playoff run — really, multiple deep playoff runs, assuming the first one doesn’t end in the first title of most of our lifetimes as Knicks fans — then all we’ve done is unlocked a little more of an offensive game that was already wonderful to begin with.

We still won the trade, though.

I ain’t mad at 3/75 for Manaea

I ain’t mad at 3/75 for Manaea

Ain’t mad? We should be ecstatic! That’s a hell of a deal in a free agent pitching market where Max Fried got 8 years at around the same per year salary on the wrong side of 30, despite never pitching 200 inning season once in his career and breaking down during 2 of his 5 leasons in his prime. He gave us a discount as far as I can see.

Honestly, Randle is on a difficult position. Every time a Wolves fan looks at him they are going to be thinking about giving up KAT for him. He’s going to have an almost impossible task making them happy with him. He makes a lot less than Towns, wasn’t traded by himself for Towns, and shouldn’t be expected to be as good as Towns, but fans still feel he should be as good. Randle’s not the sort of guy to let that roll off his back. It’s got to be hard on him.

I just love how Stearns is methodically solidifying the organizational roster from megastars down to the farm system with big, medium, and small moves.

Yeah, I feel bad for Randle, an imperfect player who nonetheless gave us a lot of great memories over four seasons playing under Thibs, and who was rewarded for that with a trade that put him in a deeply unenviable place. Financially, it seems to make the most sense for him to use his player option and then try free agency a summer from now. But I wonder if he might want to get out of Minnesota by any means necessary.

Ant Edwards seems like an issue in Minny, even if Randle is taking the flak.

Is he really a superstar? Never been in that camp.

May still happen but the thought of him on a super max might make me queasy.

RJ did not play last night, and as of right now is also not likely to play tonight. Ja’Kobe Walter new season/career high alert tonight!

I just love how Stearns is methodically solidifying the organizational roster from megastars down to the farm system with big, medium, and small moves.

Yep, a lot of Mets fans have worried about the fact that Stearns didn’t do enough in FA pitching market to address the advantage which the Dodgers showed in the playoffs. But the problem is I don’t see how you create a pitching staff via free agency that is dominant enough to overcome our weaknesses against the Dodgers, either. There is no quick fix. And overpaying for guys like Fried or Barnes isn’t a surefire way of bridging that gap. I think Stearns realizes it will take a long-term, delicate process of putting the parts together that will sustain a formidible rotation–and that doesn’t necessarily mean getting the shiniest toy in the FA pitching market.

Stearns seems to look at floors as much as ceilings as his primary approach. Then he puts an upside on top of it. Last offseason was about raising the floor and ensuring that there was the depth to maintain that level even if things go wrong. Then, when he sees a chance to truly raise the upside (Soto), he does that. Again, they were in on Yamamoto last year and would have kept going, but the Yamamoto people told them to stop bidding. I think they’ll be all-in on Sasaki in whatever non-financial way. I don’t think he looked at this group of pitchers and saw anybody else to go that far with, so the rest is to create depth and raise the floor.

I’m thinking RJ plays, he is coming off of some kind of bug, practiced yesterday but then puked so was held out but I doubt he’d miss a Knicks game unless he was literally dying.

Randle is definitely presenting Minny with some familiar issues–infuriating levels of effort defensively, pounding the rock, turnovers you can see coming a mile away…we’ve all seen the play.

But I wholeheartedly agree with the notion that he’s getting more than his fair share of the blame. Minnesota fans by and large don’t want to admit that Ant, while immensely talented and, in my subjective opinion, capable of being the lead initiator on a contending team, has to this point not been that guy consistently.

I’m bullish on his capability because he’s been the rare player who actually overperforms in the playoffs, indicating some level of active load management, for lack of a better term, during the regular season. That’s all well and good when you have a 56 win team. Much less so when the play-in is an open question.

The combo of the long season, lack of a hard cap, and subsequent certainty that there will be active sellers at midseason puts the Mets in a uniquely advantageous position. They have enough of a farm system to outbid for both pitchers and lineup stretchers who shake loose. So why overpay now in a bloated market?

Yeah, I feel bad for Randle ….

This could be a chance for Randle to grow. His attitude often comes across as immature—arguing with referees instead of getting back on defense, pouting when things don’t go his way, and sulking in the locker room. For someone who sees himself as an A1 NBA player, this experience might be both challenging and humbling, but also an opportunity to reflect, adapt, and demonstrate the resilience and composure expected of a true leader whether he ends up playing in Minnesota or somewhere else.

Ant Edwards seems like an issue in Minny, even if Randle is taking the flak.

Is he really a superstar? Never been in that camp.

Totally agree. He was given the keys to kingdom over there in Minnesota well before he earned the title. I feel as if KAT took some of the blame for his deficiencies, and now its Randle. I think Minny’s FO, media, and fans will scapegoat a lot of players before they realize that his being hyped is a part of the problem as well.

Two thing we learned post trades (or were confirmed) is that yes RJ performs in statement games…and .unfortunately for Julius we might now have enough evidence to the contrary. Here’s hoping RJ takes the sensible view and sits this one out to be in top shape for 2025!

think they wanted the flexibility from randle’s $30mm player option and donte’s movable deal. sabonis locked in at $47mm a year from 26-28 doesn’t go far enough to solving their repeater tax constraints after paying $96mm in luxury taxes this year to justify dealing kat. obviously would prove untrue if they ended up giving randle a sabonis-adjacent deal but that seems unlikely to me.

This is all true, but one funny aspect of the post-trade narrative is seeing people kind of hand wave away Minnesota making an obviously bad trade by just saying “flexibility” and “the second apron” over and over.

Thing is…they are still well above the second apron. The trade on its own did nothing to address that. To be sure, they can wiggle out of it more easily without KAT’s extension on the books, but I mean, are things like letting Naz and/or Alexander-Walker walk for nothing all that appealing?

If paying the second-apron repeater was a true no go under any circumstances, I’d say their cardinal sin was paying Jaden McDaniels. It’s hard to chart their path forward, and I’m shocked they didn’t just begin a rebuild in earnest if they knew they couldn’t keep KAT.

but I mean, are things like letting Naz and/or Alexander-Walker walk for nothing all that appealing?

Appealing to me! I’d love to see Naz Reid on our team. Make it happen, Leon!

I just wonder if Randle is aware that his body language is probably costing him millions of dollars in the long run. On one hand, he isn’t going out of his way to endear himself to the Minny fanbase. OTOH, it would be in his best interests to pull his head out of his ass and play to the level that either increases his trade value or FA value with another team, or makes Minny want to retain him.

I dunno, maybe he thinks that by sulking he will grease the skids a bit for a trade to a better situation where he isn’t playing in the shadow of a beloved star, and that if it doesn’t work out, he has the opt-in as a buffer and work on some kind of plan B next year.

It will be interesting to see whether things can be straightened out for him in Minny before the playoffs. If yes, then he will have a chance to rehab his checkered playoff past without the pressure of the NY media.

“We won the trade because we’ve made KAT at the 5 work and they couldn’t.”

The result of it “not working” was a trip to the conference finals.

They went to the conference finals with KAT at the 4. He’s not as effective at the 4 to the point where you can look at Randle and think you’re getting commensurate value.

Yeah, I’m not ready to do a victory lap quite yet on us solving KAT at the 5. We’ve seen it work incredibly well in some games here, but we also saw that in Minnesota prior to the Gobert trade. Until we prove that a defense with him playing center can make a deep playoff run — really, multiple deep playoff runs, assuming the first one doesn’t end in the first title of most of our lifetimes as Knicks fans — then all we’ve done is unlocked a little more of an offensive game that was already wonderful to begin with.

We still won the trade, though.

Maybe KAT at the 5 isn’t solved, but it seems to be working here a lot better on defense here than it worked there. They did have one season the defense ranked 13th with him playing C, which is where our defense is now, but but they needed to play several offensive duds to make it work. Maybe our defense crashes when we hit a harder part of the schedule, but if we were 20th or below in defense, and usually deep into the 20s, like the TWolves often were, then we’d feel a lot different about the Towns trade regardless of his offensive performance.

The Mets are still $56M under their payroll number from last year, so they could still fill the 1B/3B hole via free agency (Bregman or Alonso) AND have money left over to bring in a couple of high leverage relief arms, AND allow some wiggle room for in-season trades for veterans. Plus they have held onto all of their prospects, and for once they have a good number of decent prospects who are in the upper minors: Acuña, Jett, Gilbert, Mauricio, Baty, Clifford, Sproat.

The combination of Uncle Steve’s money and David Stearns’ acumen is very exciting I must say.

Also, has anyone mentioned that Matt Ryan played 22 games for the TWolves?

Could he have been friends with KAT?

Is he our new Ryan Arcidiacono?

He’s supposedly going to re-sign on a 2-way.

Minny moved KAT to save money, those fans should be mad at ownership. I imagine they highly valued DDV-hes a good player on a great contract when he starts shooting better

RJ somehow has a worse WS/48 than last year, still below .100. Not that that matters but he just can’t even clear that barrier.

“I just wonder if Randle is aware that his body language is probably costing him millions of dollars in the long run“

Unfortunately—or maybe fortunately as a friend or teammate—Julius’ feelings and body language can’t be separated. The no.1 and Jalen arrives, effortlessly becomes no. 2. Traded to Minny as the no. 2 but Antman complains about the paint. Who I want as a teammate: Jalen, Julius, and in last place Antman.

They went to the conference finals with KAT at the 4. He’s not as effective at the 4 to the point where you can look at Randle and think you’re getting commensurate value.

This makes zero sense. The whole idea of getting Gobert was based on KAT at the 5 not making his team better. The “solving” was moving him to the 4, and the result was a conference finals appearance that would likely not have happened with him still at the 5. Thus far this year, KAT is presenting the same issues at the 5 as he did in Minny for 7 years. There is considerable evidence to suggest that these issues are going to be exploited in the playoffs. Unless and until we get to the conference finals (as we almost certainly would have last year with better injury luck), the default position should be that we haven’t solved anything.

And overpaying for guys like Fried or Barnes isn’t a surefire way of bridging that gap

“Overpaying” for a guy (Fried) who is 12th all time in MLB in the most important stat (win percentage > 100 decisions) who has pitched to a 3.05 ERA and a 1.164 WHIP over 880 innings is funny.

I think Antman is a clear cut #1 option given the way he’s playing this year. He’s shooting way better from outside so far. He’s not getting to the rim as often or finishing as well when he gets there due to the lack of spacing with that Gobert/Randle/McDaniels combo. That goes double with an aging Conley having a down year shooting 3s and DDV bricking. They have a good team, but it’s not constructed well for him.

Ultimately, I think they’ll figure out how to build around him or he’ll ask out, but imo he’s the “goods”.

This makes zero sense. The whole idea of getting Gobert was based on KAT at the 5 not making his team better. The “solving” was moving him to the 4, and the result was a conference finals appearance that would likely not have happened with him still at the 5. Thus far this year, KAT is presenting the same issues at the 5 as he did in Minny for 7 years. There is considerable evidence to suggest that these issues are going to be exploited in the playoffs. Unless and until we get to the conference finals, the default position should be that we haven’t solved anything

Sounds like they didn’t make it work with KAT at the 5…

If you don’t think KAT at the 5 works, then I don’t know how you can call the trade a win. KAT at the 4 had a very different effect on the offense in Minnesota than he did at the 5. If that’s your take, you need to give the trade an “incomplete” until we know it works or we see him at the 4.

If you think the trade is a win, then you must think KAT at the 5 works. If not, there’s no evidence the trade is a win.

RJ is doing some more boxscore stuffing this year, generating more assists and rebounds, but his scoring efficiency is down overall from last year and is not sniffing the numbers he had in Toronto last season post-trade. That .601 eFG% that he put up last year in Toronto looks like a massive outlier.

So overall he has regressed to the mean a bit from his Toronto stint last year, but if you look at the overall arc of his career he is showing typical age-related improvement. He’s at 0.7 BPM this year, up from his topline number last year but not drastically so. He has maybe been a bit better in Toronto than I would have guessed, but not by a ton.

“Overpaying” for a guy (Fried) who is 12th all time in MLB in the most important stat (win percentage > 100 decisions) who has pitched to a 3.05 ERA and a 1.164 WHIP over 880 innings is funny.

….

Bleacher Report’s Tim Kelly conveyed why he believes the Fried signing is one of the “Biggest Overpays of 2024 MLB Free Agency” in a December 21 article.

“The critique here is more with the length of the contract than anything. It’s been a trend in recent years for teams to stretch out the length of a contract by a few years to lower the average annual value, which is what counts against the luxury tax threshold,” Kelly wrote.

“Still, though, the bill will come due at some point. Fried—who the Yankees gave a full no-trade clause—will make $31.5 million per year from 2030 to 2032, his age-36 through 38 seasons.

“At the outset of the offseason, B/R projected a six-year, $168 million contract for Fried in free agency. That would have come with an average annual value of $28 million. The deal Fried ultimately signed has him with an AAV of $27.25 million. So the Yankees didn’t lower the AAV in a significant way from what our projection was, and still added on two extra years,” he continued.

“Since undergoing Tommy John surgery as a prospect in 2014, Fried has avoided major injuries. But he hasn’t been an ironman, either. When you give someone an eight-year deal—in addition to surrendering draft capital because the Atlanta Braves had saddled him with a qualifying offer—you would expect a pitcher with a bit less injury risk than Fried carries.”

If paying the second-apron repeater was a true no go under any circumstances, I’d say their cardinal sin was paying Jaden McDaniels. It’s hard to chart their path forward, and I’m shocked they didn’t just begin a rebuild in earnest if they knew they couldn’t keep KAT.

yeah there’s obviously no maginot line because even this year they are paying (for example) the 4.5Xish penalty rate on their last $7mm in taxes, which is worse than early bracket repeater rates. but it’s a pretty good bet that this (ant/gobert/mcdaniels/kat) was always meant to be temporary, because if they just kept kat they would be headed toward repeater-land for both 26-27 and 27-28, which would mean they’d be paying around $70 million for their first $17 million over the cap, which would have been thorny to avoid without major downsizing.

To be sure, they can wiggle out of it more easily without KAT’s extension on the books, but I mean, are things like letting Naz and/or Alexander-Walker walk for nothing all that appealing?

they are definitely still not in awesome shape but at least they have some optionality/buffer now. whereas before if kat had a down year or got hurt and was untradeable at 3/171 they were in a real bind. i think they are around $42mm under the tax for next year excluding randle’s player option, naz and naw. obviously that’s excluding a lot but they can go over next year and only pay 1X on the first $11mm and then get under in 26-27 without ever going repeater.

the weird ownership limbo probably helped sustain a “we’ll figure it out later” approach for a bit, but there’s no way glen taylor was going to keep the 24-25 spigots flowing and i have my suspicious about marc lore doing it either when it came time to actually triple click.

If Fried pitches like he has for the last 4-5 seasons, the AAV is a bargain. He has a 151 ERA+ (2.81 ERA) over 659 innings since 2020. That’s the 3rd best ERA in the whole sport over that period. Based on that alone, you’d think he’d be in the $35M+ AAV range.

The Yankees made that up to him with more years than anyone else was willing to give him, because Hal won’t go too deep into the luxury tax in any given year, and religiously avoids the repeater.

So you hope for 5 or so good years out of the 8. I wish Hal was willing to bite the short-term bullet a bit more to prevent the accumulation of useless flotsam like DJ, but the contract should be a good value for a while barring injury related disaster.

For being a Mets fan Ras you really are borderline obsessed with all the moves the Yankees make.

What a disjointed thread. We’re basically alternating Timberwolves and Yankees threads with one another. At least I think it’s the Yankees. I’m not reading those.

i think the big production disappointment from the wolves’ perspective would just be that the core offense has not shown out yet with randle at the 4. randle/ant/gobert lineups have scored 112.1 per 100 despite shooting 40% from 3 while kat/ant/gobert scored 118.8 last year (really i think these #s are 121 and 114 but using nba.com possessions here). and donte has not come close to making up for it ytd because donte needs to make threes to work well. the offense is also worse so far than last year with randle at the 5 (well, here i just mean randle on and gobert off if you want to call naz the 5), where the offense is 4 pts (and 3 pts worse in net rating) worse ytd vs kat on gobert off last year.

personally think the former isn’t all on randle as gobert looks visibly worse to me this year. but i also think randle is just plainly a worse offensive player for the vast majority of good teams/ lineups than kat.

I’ve never been the biggest Julius fan and was happy when they traded him. But honestly I feel bad for him now. He didn’t ask to get traded from the team he basically carried until JB came. And now he’s in a nearly impossible position in Minnesota- asked to replace a franchise icon on a team that made the WCFs.

His numbers are actually quite good- 24/8/5 per 40 with a 59.5 on 26 usage. He’s shooting 48/36/82 which is pretty much the best one could expect.

The main issue there IMO is that they didn’t realize how much KAT mitigated gobert’s weaknesses – all anyone could talk about is how KAT was better at the 4. But the combo of gobert’s offensive limitations plus Randle’s shooting deficiencies has caused their offensive ceiling to collapse. It’s not just Randle- it’s having a paint-bound big without an elite stretch 4 to bend the defense.

And that’s not even mentioning how much less Donte is giving them than they expected. If Donte was shooting 42% on 12 3PA/36 like he basically was post ASB last year then they would be in a much better place.

Don’t look now but the Knicks are inching pretty close to having a Top 10 defense.

“Sounds like they didn’t make it work with KAT at the 5…

If you don’t think KAT at the 5 works, then I don’t know how you can call the trade a win. KAT at the 4 had a very different effect on the offense in Minnesota than he did at the 5. If that’s your take, you need to give the trade an “incomplete” until we know it works or we see him at the 4.

If you think the trade is a win, then you must think KAT at the 5 works. If not, there’s no evidence the trade is a win.”

Again, this makes zero sense. Winning the trade has nothing to do with which of the two positions he plays for how long. It only matters whether he helps you to win more games come playoff time than you would have without having made the trade, both in the short run and long run. This is aside from the value proposition, given that his salary is locked in and Randle’s contract situation was a ticking time bomb. That on its own makes the trade a win.

I also don’t get why KAT’s “very different effect on the offense” was all that much different at all. He put up a .525 TS% on a 27.4 usage and averaged 24pts per 36. He’s now averaging 25.8 pts per 36 on a 27.7 usage, and while his TS% is up to .645, it’s mostly due to shooting 46% from 3, which seems unsustainable. But it is crystal clear that he hurts the defense at the 5, yet last year Minny had the best defense in the NBA with him at the 4. If you make that trade-off, I don’t see how the minimal drop-off on offense makes KAT any less valuable as a 4 than as a 5.

Correction: He put up a .625 TS% on a 27.4 usage…

BTW I am still where I was at the time of the trade…when I believed that the main benefit of moving KAT to the 4 is to shift OG to the 3, Mikal to the 2, and Hart to the bench as the guy who spells all three of KAT, Mikal and OG. Now you have a big, ferocious starting lineup with more than enough offensive pop, and the ability to mix and match with opposing lineups, including having KAT at the 5 whenever the situation calls for it.

I also don’t get why KAT’s “very different effect on the offense” was all that much different at all. He put up a .525 TS% on a 27.4 usage and averaged 24pts per 36. He’s now averaging 25.8 pts per 36 on a 27.7 usage, and while his TS% is up to .645, it’s mostly due to shooting 46% from 3, which seems unsustainable. But it is crystal clear that he hurts the defense at the 5, yet last year Minny had the best defense in the NBA with him at the 4. If you make that trade-off, I don’t see how the minimal drop-off on offense makes KAT any less valuable as a 4 than as a 5.

worth noting that with gobert on towns per 100 was 30.8 pts and .608 TS (7.7 2ptm 53.4% 4.7 FT pts) while with gobert off he was 36.7 pts and .651 TS (9.6 2ptm at 57.1% and 8.8 FT pts)

Fried is pretty durable, very consistent, and left handed. All of those things bode well for his longevity. I’m glad to see him leaving the NL East. Eight years is a long contract for a pitcher, but Fried is a good bet to give you 5-6 years of 3.5 or so WAR. He’s one of the better LHP in the game.

If they do decide to eventually pursue a true Center I’d be very on board with Poeltl, I’m a big fan, he just feels like a prototypical guy Thibs would turn into a great inside presence. I just don’t know why the Raptors would deal him for Precious and Mitch, feels like this package doesn’t really give them anything they need.

“worth noting that with gobert on towns per 100 was 30.8 pts and .608 TS (7.7 2ptm 53.4% 4.7 FT pts) while with gobert off he was 36.7 pts and .651 TS (9.6 2ptm at 57.1% and 8.8 FT pts)”

As I said, it’s about trade-offs. There are probably some qualifiers as well…the balance of together vs. not together, against which lineups, how the defense fared, whether Rudy picked up KAT’s slack (they apparently had a good lob connection) etc.

All the questions change with the Knicks though, particularly because we don’t have either a Gobert or a Naz to tinker with. There really isn’t a starting lineup we can play right now with KAT at the 5 that isn’t either small (given KAT’s small presence as a defensive 5) or subject to the weaknesses of Precious and Sims.

“I just don’t know why the Raptors would deal him for Precious and Mitch, feels like this package doesn’t really give them anything they need.”

Precious expires and Mitch is owed $12M next year, so there’s that.

I wish Hal was willing to bite the short-term bullet a bit more to prevent the accumulation of useless flotsam like DJ

ouch, that one hurts…he was doing so well, until he wasn’t…

I’m stating for the record that Bargnani’s clips were and still are more valuable than anything Poeltl would have done for the Knicks had we drafted him.

If Fried pitches like he has for the last 4-5 seasons, the AAV is a bargain.

He’s broken down 2 of those 5 seasons. These were his prime years, age 25-30, BTW.

Also Ras and his offseason baseball posts in the middle of basketball season is now on my skip list.

i keep waiting for milo to just spit out the answer, great gory details on all the symptoms and side effects though…

how can the wolves fix that thing – where would julius fit? does he still play like he really needs to be the offensive focal point and clog up the lane for every other player?

ant’s a cash machine, so…he’s not a point guard though…

they really messed up when they acquired gobert, who had already demonstrated at times he could not be placed on the court during playoff games…they already had naz reid, who they drafted…they decided to get and keep old ass mike conley…

they showed no faith in KAT over the years – to build around him, didn’t think he equaled winning…

you know what, on second, to heck with ’em, i don’t really care about fixing the wolves at all, and julius’ basketball issues are his own…

he should have took a team friendly extension from us…oh well, dress warm…actually, nyc is pretty cold too…

and wow, the kings have just fallen off a cliff…after they fire the coach, then what?

edit: i kind of like it when other teams mess up…even better if our team can take advantage of the situation…

For being a Mets fan Ras you really are borderline obsessed with all the moves the Yankees make.

I’ve only commented on two of their moves all my time here –one involved Cashman being scooped for the biggest FA signing of the offseason by my beloved Mets. The other regarded Cashman’s overreaction to that loss by overpaying Max Fried as an example of what the Sterns shouldn’t and hasn’t done so far in the FA pitching market.

“Since undergoing Tommy John surgery as a prospect in 2014, Fried has avoided major injuries. But he hasn’t been an ironman, either. When you give someone an eight-year deal—in addition to surrendering draft capital because the Atlanta Braves had saddled him with a qualifying offer—you would expect a pitcher with a bit less injury risk than Fried carries.”

Guys actually get paid to write tripe like this. He missed significant time one season in his career with 6 full seasons as a major starter for a good team with a Whitey Ford-esque win percentage and top of the line metrics across the board. This in some Lisa Randall driven alternate universe shit that makes him and injury risk when they add the “fact” he had TJ surgery… wait for it…. 10 years ago? WTF?

Tyler the Kreator has won the G-Leave Winter Showcase Finals MVP.

He missed significant time one season in his career with 6 full seasons

He only had 10 starts in 2020 and 14 starts in 2023.

as a major starter for a good team with a Whitey Ford-esque win percentage

Win percentage is the most meaningless pitching stat in baseball, up there with saves, in an era where a frontline starting pitcher like Fried doesn’t even average 6 IP/start.

It’s funny to watch Knicks fans deal with the fact we aren’t losing trades and we arent the most dysfunctional child in the family.

I always wondered why folks feel that they have to declare to the community that they are skipping over someone else’s posts rather than just skipping over them….

yep, the mavs messed must up, picked up jalen…portland stays inept, got josh…raptors going through a rebuild, got OG..brooklyn is weird, got mikal…

the wolves are going through some ownership and bad choices things, got KAT…sorry minneapolis, not really…

all we really need to do is just find some other team going through some stuff to snatch up a good young power forward, with enough speed and size to defend both a 4 or 5…good luck on that…

not much left in assets, other than players, so…ouch…

to our credit, we’ve managed to hold on to deuce and mitch, very useful players…wish mitch would play more…

I always wondered why folks feel that they have to declare to the community that they are skipping over someone else’s posts rather than just skipping over them….

Oh, you know, some people just love to make a show of things. It’s all very passive-aggressive, isn’t it? “Look at me, I’m so important, I can’t be bothered to read your posts!”

He only had 10 starts in 2020

My friend… the MLB season was 60 games in 2020 due to COVID….

You guys can just skip the posts about skipping posts too

Fried only made 10 starts in 2020! Oh shit that’s right the regular season that year was 60 games….

lol, that made me chuckle Bruno

what did he write

“You guys can just skip the posts about skipping posts too”

lol believe me, ras has never been on my preferred poster list. I would guess that we all skip over posts for a variety of reasons. I just don’t see the point of announcing it. In a larger sense, one would think that posting traffic is probably healthy for the site. That said, ras, when even diehard Mets fans start rebutting your silly Fried posts, maybe it’s time to let it rest.

“what did he write”

Almost got me!

what did he write

Lol

I need a holiday special written by Milo and Donnie

And where has Khanzy gone? He was a fave in the Dark Times….

Poeltl is a fairly good player, I guess he could be a poor man’s iHart here

Even if his offensive numbers are similar, his team likely suffers from the loss of spacing when you play a traditional C.

KAT had two of his worst relative Ortg on/offs with Gobert, inlcuding his only negative rORTG. For 3 consecutive years before that he was nearly twice last year’s higher mark. He also dropped off by pretty much every AIO offensive metric I could find.

The lack of space may be an even big problem for our team because we generate a large number of easy points with our cuts to the basket. Our team’s relative on/off rimAST% is +6.5% when KAT is on the floor (which is a very green rating by nba.rapm.com that I’m assuming is a terribly unspecific but high degree of good). The effect of playing KAT at the 4 goes beyond his own numbers and we can’t assume that the rest of our offense will run smoothly with a player like Mitch in the game.

KAT’s Ortg on/off relative to the league:
Before Gobert:
5.0 – rookie year
8.3
12.7
5.1
12.2
11.8
9.9

With Gobert:
-1.9
5.1

With Knicks:
7.0

I don’t read anyone else’s posts, never have. Hopefully this post is germane to whatever conversation is going on.

He only had 10 starts in 2020

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2023/03/13/brain-memory-pandemic-covid-forgetting/

“I don’t read anyone else’s posts, never have. Hopefully this post is germane to whatever conversation is going on.”

Unfortunately, it very much *is*. 😀

I liked the Kolek highlights. He seemed to make assists to everyone and he can shoot too. Also the other team members really seemed to like him.

My friend… the MLB season was 60 games in 2020 due to COVID….

Damn, forgot about that.

From now on, I’m skipping the posts where I’m proven wrong! LOL!

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