Knicks Morning News (2024.12.18)

26 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2024.12.18)”

I get that one might be skeptical of having Jimmy Butler on the roster two years from now might be a huge black hole, but saying he is “washed” is complete nonsense.

By any reasonable metric he’s in the midst of a 2nd/3rd team all NBA season. By comparison, he stacks up better than out deity on the “advanced” end… https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=brunsja01&year_min=2025&player_id1=butleji01&seasons_type=forall&request=1&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_source=bbr&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_id=butleji01

“He (Butler) plays a lot of minutes every game he plays in.”

Hmmmmmmm……. Already this season, he’s only played 25:49 against Orlando, 25:01 against Charlotte, 29:21 against the Lakers, and 29:26 against Toronto. That’s not counting the game in which he played 6:44 against Denver prior to missing the subsequent four games. He also missed one game against the Celtics for “rest.”

So in those four games (not counting the one where he got hurt), he averaged 27:24, including two games in which he averaged 25:25. Did he really “play a lot of minutes every game he plays in”?

Jimmy Butler is still a stud. He would immediately be the best 2-way player on our team. I think it’s legitimate to debate whether his or OG’s contract will age better, it’s not like OG is some kind of iron man. Put differently, if we could have traded RJ, IQ, and a second for Jimmy Butler and the equivalent of precious. I would have been thrilled.

I love I-Hart, but for all the talk about his offensive skillset, I’m pretty sure the Knicks’ improvement on offense is as attributable to his departure as their fall on defense.

“Jimmy Butler is still a stud. He would immediately be the best 2-way player on our team.”

I think that a lot of people here would take no issue with that statment (although some of course would). My feeling is that the ensuing question would be something akin to “yes, but for how long?”

Doogie, but isn’t that true for OG as well?

Doogie, but isn’t that true for OG as well?

Seriously? OG is like 8 years younger than Butler. Yes, he’s had his injuries but he hasn’t had any serious knee or ankle issues. One of his big chunks of games missed in his career was because of an apendicitus.

Statistically, it is irrefutable that the odds OG plays at his same level or even slightly better over the next few years are much higher than Butler maintaining his current level of play. That is an irrefutable fact. That doesn’t even get into the KAT/Butler dynamic, which is not a risk worth taking at all.

I think that a lot of people here would take no issue with that statment (although some of course would). My feeling is that the ensuing question would be something akin to “yes, but for how long?”

Stipulated…

However, some here said “Jimmy Butler is washed” which I believe is patently, clearly demonstrably false.

“Jimmy Butler might be/probably will be washed in 18 months” is an entirely different argument and open to conjecture as is “Jimmy Butler on a 5 year big contract is foolish.”

All having nothing to do with “Jimmy Butler is washed.”

I love I-Hart, but for all the talk about his offensive skillset, I’m pretty sure the Knicks’ improvement on offense is as attributable to his departure as their fall on defense.

pretty hard to say our improvement is attributable to his departure when we had a 122.8 offensive rating with ihart on the court last season. obviously kat is a better offensive player than ihart.

Sorry swift, Butler is orders of magnitude better than OG right now and probably will be for the next 2-3 seasons after this. And that’s as far as you need to go to justify a comparison because that’s the prime of our championship window. Then you can move on to new players when you have more firsts to trade plus cap flexibility. It won’t happen, but if it did, my concerns would be more about fit and roster flexibility than value. He doesn’t put us over the top.

I am not a personal fan of Butler and I specially wouldn’t want him to bring all his fake bravado to another team with KAT on it after all that happened in Minnesota, also because it would be costly enough to the point where i don’t think he moves us past Boston or the other contenders.

He’s a pretty damn good player, but I’d rather not deal with all this stuff.

I’m with you, Bruno. But one doesn’t need to distort Butler’s value/impact in a vacuum to feel that way.

pretty hard to say our improvement is attributable to his departure when we had a 122.8 offensive rating with ihart on the court last season. obviously kat is a better offensive player than ihart.

I should have been more clear: his departure and the space it created has improved their shooting efficiency (I believe a big part of that ORtg with I-Hart was based on offensive rebounding, but I don’t have time to check right now).

Player A: Left handed utility player

Player B: Left handed utility player

Player A, 2024: 1.9 fWAR in 129 games

Player B, 2024: 2.2 fWAR in 130 games

Player A, 2021-24 aggregate: 10.4 fWAR, 109 wRC+

Player B, 2021-24 aggregate: 7.1 fWAR, 99 wRC+

Player A remaining contract: 2/$33.5 million, club option after 2026 would increase the deal to 3/$45.25 million if exercised

Player B remaining contract: 2/$52.5 million, player option after 2025 would adjust deal to 1/$32.5 million

Player A identity: Jeff McNeil

Player B identity: Cody Bellinger

Ras, if you’re no longer interested in basketball, no problem, but go find a baseball blog for that stuff. No one cares.

Did he really “play a lot of minutes every game he plays in”?

Obviously, there are games when a player plays less minutes than his season average. These games are, typically, called “blowouts”. Sometimes they are referred to as “being in foul trouble”. These games indicate very little about the health and durability of a player, which is the context of this discussion. It almost seems as if you think Thibs shouldn’t play his players heavy minutes for no reason, but Spoelstra should, just to prove that Jimmy Butler isn’t “washed”.

I get that you have a few identified posters that you target to annoy the shit out of. Unfortunately I am one of them, and I should know better than to try to engage you in any reasonable discussion. I will try to he better in the future.

If Paul George got a max contract and is less available than Jimmy (and probably not as good), then it’s reasonable to assume Jimmy would be seen as deserving at least a similar contract. He’s a max player.

That said, still don’t want him, bad idea, doesn’t address our needs. Move on.

rama, just wondering why you said that to ras when several posters bring up baseball stuff all the time, including yesterday re: Bellinger…

I was listening to some random internet dudes talking about KAT and how he could legitimately be in the MVP conversation the way he’s playing now.

So we’ve got one dude who’s playing at an MVP level this season and another who finished 4th in last season’s MVP voting

I mean, things could be worse right?

As I said yesterday, a big part of what makes Butler better than OG is that he’s a more skilled scorer and playmaker. However, OG is better at shooting 3s and providing space (if he stays within his circle of competence). Also, if Butler was in NY he’d be 3rd option and not 1st or even 2nd option. He’d also handle the ball less often with a PG like Brunson in NY vs Miami. So it’s very likely he’d score less, get fewer assists and provide less space in NY than he does in Miami.

Is the better player?

Absolutely.

But I think figuring out whether a player’s skillset matches what you need and optimizes those skills should be part of the analysis. He’s
the Same player in NY or Miami, but his value may be a +4 or +5 BPM in Miami and a +1 or +2 in NY.

When you think about it like that, the age difference become more important because the gap in value to NY may be less than a stat like BPM suggests.

An iHart screen for Brunson yielded the third highest PPP among all plays in the NBA (trailing only Murray-Jokic and Lillard-Giannis) last year. That dude created space, he just did it with his floater and his passing.

Losing Randle has probably been a bigger boon to the offense that losing Hartenstein.

““play a lot of minutes every game he plays in””

Wasn’t targeting you, and literally have nothing against you. There is only one poster on here that I really don’t like (he almost never posted anything having to do with sports of any kind), and he hasn’t been posting anyway, so I’m good.

What I *was* targeting was the word “every.” Butler does *not* play a lot of minutes in every game in which he appears. If you had initially included what you just said about blowouts, that would have changed the assertion by a lot. (And by the way, in that game against Charlotte, Miami only ended up winning by 4 points…….so it didn’t end up being a blowout. And Jimmy only played 25 minutes and had 6 points. Herro [38 minutes], Bam [36 minutes], Duncan Robinson, and Highsmith all played more minutes than he did.)

Yeah to be clear my three reasons for opposing a trade that could never happen in real life for Butler is because of A) his age (and likely decline at any moment) B) he doesn’t address our real needs and C) his likely antagonistic relationship with KAT, who we just got and who is kicking ass for us.

Also, it would never happen and is pointless to discuss.

“rama, just wondering why you said that to ras when several posters bring up baseball stuff all the time, including yesterday re: Bellinger…”

I thought that what rama said to ras was a little bit out of place, too…….but I fully agree with the spirit of what he wrote. I don’t care about Bellinger as compared to McNeil in any way, shape, or form. (I’d rather talk about politics, and I say that as someone who does *not* generally want to talk about politics here, either.)

rama, just wondering why you said that to ras when several posters bring up baseball stuff all the time, including yesterday re: Bellinger…

Thank you, Z-Man.

I thought that what rama said to ras was a little bit out of place, too

It was very out of place.

don’t care about Bellinger as compared to McNeil in any way, shape, or form. (I’d rather talk about politics, and I say that as someone who does *not* generally want to talk about politics here, either.)

You can ignore my point if its not your cup of tea. Thankfully, we all have diverse interests and views so we can have multiple topics of conversation on a forum if we please.

Losing Randle has probably been a bigger boon to the offense that losing Hartenstein.

Even though they are all positionally different and do things in different ways:

Towns replaced Randle’s scoring. That was a huge upgrade in efficiency and spacing.

Towns replaced I-Hart’s rebounding & some of Randle’s rebounding.

J-Hart replaced Randle’s playmaking and some of his rebounding.

J-Hart replaced I-Hart’s lower usage scoring.

No one replaced I-Hart’s interior defense.

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26 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2024.12.18)”

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