Knicks Morning News (2023.12.29)

The lineup data is pretty hard to refute. The only thing that I feel should be mentioned is that Thibs is the one who determines which lineup to use at which times. It’s possible that using that lineup more universally without regard to what the opponent is doing would be less effective that the way that Thibs is employing it.

But the fact remains that the most pressing question is how to replace RJ’s minutes with a more effective option and to at the same time increase IQ’s minutes.

There are 6 teams that have elevated themselves above the rest of the league: BOS, MIL, PHI, MIN, OKC, and DEN. All but MIN have a legit MVP candidate and all but maybe OKC have multiple sure-fire all-stars.

We shouldn’t expect to beat any of those teams, especially on the road. We have two second-tier all-star types and no one else even close.

“Since Thibs tries to play Quickley when he’s not overmatched in size and will play Barrett where he needs to defend bigger dudes, we mostly see Quickley defends guys Thibs thinks he can defend. Maybe if we saw him defend bigger guys we wouldn’t like his defense so much. I’m not saying he’ would definitely be worse, just that you can’t tell if Thibs is right just from watching the games.”

There’s probably a degree of overplaying/underplaying lineups here, but not to the level suggested in the stats.

“In that lineup IQ would only have to defend shooting guards, Hart would defend small forwards. At the very least, this should be our closing lineup.”

In today’s NBA (and likely forever) the strategy is to run both high and low PnR-based sets that force switching. So even if IQ is technically guarding a SG, the issue is that he can’t handle bigger SFs and PFs well enough for the entire defense not to break down.

The result is often either a post-up leading to a basket, foul, or offensive rebound, or a kick-out to open 3 when help comes.

“I have always assumed there’s an expectation being communicated from the front office that Thibs not tarnish RJ’s trade/asset value. This is admittedly speculative, but I would honestly be surprised if some form of it wasn’t happening. The extension alone sends enough of a message, and my guess is this directive has been further clarified either explicitly or implicitly. Again, totally speculative, but does anyone doubt it?”

Yes, I doubt it (in the sense that it has any impact on Thibs’ decision-making or his opinion of RJ) for a bunch of reasons:
1) Thibs is the guy who signed Wiggins to a max extension
2) Thibs is the guy who ignored the fact that the FO traded a blemished first for Cam Reddish and played him as he saw fit
3) Thibs perma-benched Kemba and Fournier, regardless of the money that was invested in them, including willfully blowing out Kemba’s knees to prove his point that he was shot.
4) Thibs has never had a single observable moment of giving a shit about what the FO does in terms of lineups and playing time.

What is far more likely to me is that Thibs is driving the FO nuts, and that there are dissenting voices (primarily WWW) about whether he is the right guy to coach the team going forward. That is mostly speculation on my part, but:
1) It was rumored last year when we were struggling at the start of the season that Thibs was on the hot seat
2) WWW has been rumored to be a detractor
3) WWW was the guy behind drafting IQ, and it does not defy logic to wonder whether he’d as frustrated about how Thibs is using him as most of us are.
4) Thibs has been voted the coach that players around the league would least like to play for…and LaVine and Lillard recently showed no interest in playing here…so if a player (other than LaVine) who Leon covets becomes available but he learns that that player doesn’t want to play here specifically because of Thibs, that would add some gravity to any dissenting voices.

But so long as the team continues to exceed W-L expectations, I don’t expect there to be much happening. If the team goes on an extended bender and sinks into the play-in, I would expect the rumors to start…four years is already a long time for Thibs, so we’ll see.

“I think this just speaks to Thibs’ most glaring flaw though–the dude just does not experiment.”

Agreed in principle. Spo he is not.

I think the jury is no longer out on whether RJ will ever be a “solid star.”

Solid role player with some explosive performances (both meanings) seems almost certainly to be his ceiling.

There is not much likelihood that he ever plays to his current contract on an aggregate basis. So the question is, can he get somewhere close, as an overpaid but at least serviceable 4th banana on a contender? He is utterly failing as a 3rd banana, so that seems like a reasonable ceiling to hope for at this point. Anything beyond that would be found money.