Now that we’re tied heading into Game 5, I figured we could make some predictions again.
And it’s perfect for our all-poll content!
Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.Now that we’re tied heading into Game 5, I figured we could make some predictions again.
And it’s perfect for our all-poll content!
Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.
135 replies on “Predict the the NBA Finals Winners”
Hubert! Hubert!
After a year in which home court didn’t matter I predict the home teams will win out….
And the Bucks aren’t going to win if the refs call goaltends on perfect Giannis blocks
Giannis saved by the refs but his “deleted” foul on Booker was one of the dumbest thing I ever saw from a superstar.
I picked the Bucks in 7 because the East is big, man.
lol you’re not wrong, GHenman! As long as either the Suns win or Giannis is MVP, I will have done well. (I’ll do slightly better if the Suns win, but it’s all gravy.)
Portis with a serious Finals effort. No one would have noticed if he stopped fighting after the first miss.
Edit: and now a corner 3 in transition.
Another Bobby Portis game?
That Giannis foul on Cam Payne is a good chunk of what is wrong with the NBA
Nice comeback from the Bucks fueled by Portis
and Cam Payne with a basket that sent me 40 years back to a Celtics-Rockets Finals…
I feel like the Bucks should win this game and this series, but there is something Knicksian about them. This game reminds me of the game we lost to the Lakers in LA this season. And this series in general reminds me of the 94 finals. (In both instances, the bucks play us, unfortunately.)
So i’ll stick with phoenix in 7, with the Bucks kicking themselves for letting it slip away.
Maybe the Suns will win, but Giannis will get the MVP.
I’ll end up in the swamp if that happens.
Giannis is doing his best to please Hubert…
Have you guys seen Chris Paul? Not sure where he is.
RIDICULOUS Offenses both teams!
Bucks look like Bosses right now but anything can happen in the 4th
but it’s all gravy
you triggered me hubie 🙂
dreaming towards the future a bunch lately, still got time that needs to be moved through though…coming to fully realize that home values in monterey are a bit over twice what values are where i live now, and so will go property taxes…the condo hoa’s fees there are ugly…actually, for some other of the nicer areas in california, not that bad really, south of about santa barbara it costs beaucoup bucks to look out your door and see water…
nobody’s fault but mine…hopefully before i finally stop showing up for work, i can focus more intently on gravy…
Over one-third of the total human population, nearly 2.4 billion people, lives within 100 km (60 miles) of an oceanic coast
i’ve focused my near to end game goal: 10 years of being able to walk (about a mile) to the ocean, and eat lunch by the water, maybe walk to work somewhere down by the water for a few years…how cool would it be to get a gig at the aquarium gift shop…
one of the times i lived there i was rehabbing from an illness, spent months just walking to the water, grabbing lunch along the way, and sitting somewhere, looking at the water, watching out for the pelicans overhead, just watching folks go by…
RIP 2021 Mets
Completely rooting for the Suns for Hubert. Don’t want you in a swamp though.
Yep, Mets news sucks.
This series has been excellent.
Yes, very entertaining indeed…
Hollinger notes that the Bucks realizing that they don’t need to play Teague has changed the series. Says that if they realize Connaughton is better than Tucker (and his major Bruce Bowen energy) they will be a lock.
Twitter commentary I like…..
the suns suddenly look so ordinary and rudderless. I know the Bucks have a lot to do with that but you get the feeling they crowned themselves after 2 games.
Stars have come out to play for the Bucks.
Pretty amazing reversal.
Paul might make this interesting. Not sure why he waits till the 4th to do stuff
Wow Middleton.
Khris Middleton needs to calm down.
Hahaha, yes, mvp chances not nil
wow jrue
Holy Jesus that was a great play by Jrue
o… m…g
holy shit!
$$ in 6
Great game. I feel like Phoenix should have won the past two games and it would be over.
My knicksian comment was looking prophetic and then Jrue came up huge.
That was a pretty poor possession by Booker.
Damn, what a game. If you told me Booker had 40, CP3 had 20-11 with one TO and Ayton had 20-10 I think that’s an easy Suns W
Really it could be we all forgot how good Giannis is. He’s something like an advanced form of young Shaq before he got fucking huge.
Holiday is a two way beast.
Hubert, if Giannis, Middleton and Holiday are co-MVPs do you still win?
I think Giannis should get it if the Bucks win but with those free throws who knows.
You can’t play a much better game at both ends than Holiday did tonight. Very clutch performance
Jeff Teague a negative 11 in 7:33. Cam Johnson a -19 in 22 minutes.
The Bucks Big Three of Lopez, Middleton, and Jrue really came through tonight.
two steals on booker… one turned into a pullup 3 and the other an oop to giannis…
jrue has played some really shitty games but this game was worth four first rd picks…
Pretty sure even when bad offensively he’s great on defense, alternating between Paul and Booker and bothering both.
Fun game, this playoffs are so good…
Bucks with a huge match point at home.
The Holiday Trade pay big dividends yesterday, are we ready for a new Win Curve discussion?
🙂
Jrue Holiday has really won me over. He’s sort of like Derek Harper on steroids.
Suns are super-flawed on D as finals teams go, they play their asses off but other than Bridges, Craig and CP3. and to a lesser degree Ayton, the rest of the guys give you nothing if they aren’t scoring. Holiday is one of those guys who can give the equivalent of a 40-point effort on D and intangibles even when he’s going 4-20 from the field. He’s no Frank, but he’s really good.
The Jrue package at the time seemed insane for a on superstar type. But Giannis has since re-signed with the Bucks, and they’re one win away from a title. You make that trade every day in that circumstance, I guess.
I was astonished when the trade happened, the price seemed insane, but that was exactly the moment to go all-in.
They had a weak link (Bledsoe) in an otherwise very good starting five (an MVP, an All-Star second scoring option, two really solid players in Lopez and DDV) and after the Bogdo flop they put all the chips on the table, extended Giannis, got JRue for a boatload of picks but little on a talent standpoint (Bledsoe, a cooked Hill and RJ Hampton who can become very good but is on a different timeline), signed Portis and Forbes for the minimum.
They were one KD’s toe away from elimination, now they’re in the Finals, one home win away from the title.
And I’m one Bucks’ win away from mocking Joe Vardon (again) for the unbelievably stupid piece he wrote minutes after Giannis’ extension (that article is stupid nonetheless, they’re in the Finals after all and BTW fuck Joe Vardon)…
🙂
There’s a lesson here, you sell your future when you’re really close and you already got a REAL superstar, not when you’re main options are Randle and RJ (that you can lose in the trade…). I hope our FO take notice…
**Really it could be we all forgot how good Giannis is. He’s something like an advanced form of young Shaq before he got fucking huge.**
Immediately after I voted I thought, wait a minute isn’t Giannis & the Bucks just better? I think I’m just pulling for Hubert’s bet and CP3 to get a ring.
Guess the Hubert angle doesn’t even matter as much anymore. Even Giannis winning would vindicate my support of the “regular season only” team.
Sorry to quote myself but I was late on the editing window.
I think “you sell your future when you’re really close and you already got established top talent” better explain my view (you can trade for the #1 option superstar if you already have excellent sidekicks).
I appreciate the support! The way I hedged it ends up no different as long as Giannis takes home MVP.
I’m having a little bit of Middleton anxiety. If they win game 6 behind a monster performance from
him it could sway some voters. But I think Giannis sealed it with his two way play despite the free throws.
the jrue holiday trade looks a lot less bad when you consider it would probably cost two first round picks just to dump Eric Bledsoe’s contract.
Jrue has been a top 10 player in the league by RAPM for multiple years in a row. He may just be worth 4 firsts.
Giannis is the best player in the finals by a large margin and deserves the MVP if the Bucks win it.
Right, Jrue is not Frank indeed.
I’m curious about how Booker responds. He had a hero ball destructive streak in the 3rd quarter and was mostly bad in the 4th, with the Suns going away from any semblance of organized offense. My guess is that Jrue is in their heads now but who knows, these teams are very close.
I wasn’t very impressed with the Suns first two wins. The Bucks didn’t seem like they were ready. They moved into a different gear at home. The Suns have an extra gear, too, but they seem unable to get into it. It’s been a little too much Booker hero ball for them. Given how young they are, I wouldn’t expect them to find it now.
I’ve been more meh on Ayton than most on this board, and he’s been pretty invisible the last few games.
He’s a nice player but Suns fans are still dreaming about Luka
Don’t recall Suns win #1, but win #2 definitely seemed like a 3pt shooting fluke
Giannis would really have to suck in the remaining games not to be MVP. I think this is generally true for the best player on a finals team.
The key for the Suns is likely Middleton not hitting shots. Bucks are a very different team when Middleton runs cold.
Giannis had The Block and The Dunk. And did it all after the worse non-injury I have ever seen. I think he will win MVP.
Middleton and Jrue were so good last night. I still am marveling at that steal and assist. How many people throw that pass? Or put another way, how many people does he throw that pass to other than Giannis?
Firmly Team Bucks right now and glad my Hubert exposure is mostly hedged.
That catch and dunk by Giannis was virtuoso. I don’t think many in the league can do that.
Hey, look on the bright side! Kelenic got sent down, and the Mets are going to save lots of $ on a potential Michael Conforto extension!
🙂
Wait…Kelenic’s back up….never mind.
Yeah, the lesson from these playoffs is that we really should still be in asset collection mode. Both of these teams recently put the finishing touches on already great teams with multiple scoring options, and the Knicks aren’t even close to that yet.
As such, I really hope we use our draft picks and focus on getting 1 or 2 long-term pieces via free agency like Lonzo/Oubre/Trent Jr./Horton-Tucker… young guys we won’t have to give up real assets for and who can be flipped later if need be.
For instance, I’d rather have Toppin, Jared Butler, Chris Duarte, Lonzo Ball, and Talen Horton-Tucker on the team next year than Collin Sexton, Lonzo Ball, and Chris Duarte because neither team is getting out of the 2nd round regardless. The Knicks need to take more swings right now and hope to find a top option while also collecting promising young players that can be used in a trade for a legit #1 option.
Mets down 6-0 in the first today, will get swept by the Pirates. deGrom and Lindor both out indefinitely.
This might seem crazy but they should become deadline sellers.
They should at least wait a week before any acquisitions. It’s hard to imagine Stroman and Walker continuing to pitch like they did in the 1st half. Stroman is already reverting to a more realistic form, and today Walker is, too. But Philly and the Braves are very flawed teams, too.
Rojas went ballistic at home plate ump today…who looks to have made the right call while Walker made a horrible decision to swat a dribbler down the third base line away. Three runs score on that!?
Well, yesterday i fell asleep, second consecutive night trying to watch the first episode of Lisey’s Story and for the second time i fell asleep almost at the same time (even though the 2nd time i advanced like half of what i watched the first time). Alan, if you ever review this tv series please alert people to make sure they’re wide awake and/or on coffee. LOL
About the NBA Finals, i voted just like i’d have voted if i saw this post at the right time, which was “Suns in 6”. Of course now it doesn’t make sense, i know, but i thought it’d be more honest to do that.
I’m a little surprised that the series has turned around this way, but Hubert is right, probably the Suns felt like NBA Champions once they got to 2-0. Well now they have to fight for their lives. 😛
Oh, and btw, Hubert, you’re joking when you say those things like “end up in a swamp” or the mob after you, right? Sorry, i’m portuguese and sometimes i gotta ask to know if you guys are joking or not. LOL
Well, the Knicks have a guy that can do that! 😉
Yes, that’s true!
The Booker steal was embarrassing in the sense that they all knew Booker was not passing there, so they were comfortable tripling him. You can’t be that predictable, Booker!
Booker’s max contract a mistake, confirmed
that’s a good point, and shows just how good at basketball giannis is getting…
i guess budz ain’t getting fired after all…
After every Bucks series win I tweet that. 🙂
Impressive!
Oh yeah? How about 35/15/10?
Is that on average, over 5 games?
**Yeah, the lesson from these playoffs is that we really should still be in asset collection mode. Both of these teams recently put the finishing touches on already great teams with multiple scoring options, and the Knicks aren’t even close to that yet.
As such, I really hope we use our draft picks and focus on getting 1 or 2 long-term pieces via free agency like Lonzo/Oubre/Trent Jr./Horton-Tucker… young guys we won’t have to give up real assets for and who can be flipped later if need be.
For instance, I’d rather have Toppin, Jared Butler, Chris Duarte, Lonzo Ball, and Talen Horton-Tucker on the team next year than Collin Sexton, Lonzo Ball, and Chris Duarte because neither team is getting out of the 2nd round regardless. The Knicks need to take more swings right now and hope to find a top option while also collecting promising young players that can be used in a trade for a legit #1 option.**
I don’t think much can be learned from 1 playoff year… and I don’t think that’s necessarily the takeaway either.
You make the trade for Sexton only if you think he’s a better asset than Obi, Knox, & the pick (assuming that’s the price). There’s likely no Giannis, Booker, Ayton, or Mikal to be had at 19 or 21.
In fact Mikal was obtained via trade with PHI for 2018 #16 pick Zhaire Smith plus a future 1st.
And don’t forget MIL traded George Hill in the Jrue Holiday trade. Hill was acquired by MIL for a 1st & 2nd rd pick.
You look to acquire assets, but more assets doesn’t necessarily mean better assets.
So, will people wait until LeBron retires before actually discussing the “Giannis > Lebron” thing? At the same age, Giannis is a better scorer and defender than LeBron, even while being a vastly worse shooter, and the gap between Giannis and LeBron in rebounding is arguably as big or bigger than the gap between the two in passing/assists. If Giannis can get another title or two in Milwaukee WITHOUT teaming up with other top 10 players in the league, it’s going to get awfully hard to keep the “LeBron is the GOAT over Jordan” nonsense going.
Mike
I was going to wait til Giannis can hit free throws.
LOL
I don’t think this was the reason behind the Obi pick, or at least i want not to think it was.
But just to let you know that Usman Garuba is represented by… Sam Rose (CAA).
https://basketball.realgm.com/info/agent-client-list/Sam-Rose/1392
**I don’t think this was the reason behind the Obi pick, or at least i want not to think it was.
But just to let you know that Usman Garuba is represented by… Sam Rose (CAA).
https://basketball.realgm.com/info/agent-client-list/Sam-Rose/1392**
As long as Usman is a better prospect than Obi, then I can live with it
so it’s gonna be brandon boston and usman garuba ain’t it…
**so it’s gonna be brandon boston and usman garuba ain’t it…**
@djphan,
I know this is a little bit a joke, but what’s your thoughts on these two?
Boston’s numbers look horrible. Will Garuba even be there?
If we take Boston, it’ll be with the 32nd pick. Even our Kentucky homerism doesn’t run that deep.
**If we take Boston, it’ll be with the 32nd pick. Even our Kentucky homerism doesn’t run that deep.**
Not that it didn’t work out, but they said the same thing about IQ
IQ wasn’t coming off a disastrous college career, and he was taken in a range where he was perhaps rated on the low end relative to guys like Flynn and Bane, but where it wasn’t insane for him to go. There are so many prospects clearly better than Boston in that 15-25 range, I just don’t see it happening.
they both have impressive wingspans and anything good after that trails off pretty quickly….
garuba has some defensive chops… and the idea of garuba is that he’s some sort of super switchable dude that locks down folks on the perimeter and down low… he’s not that.. he’s not a great athlete and he’s mostly below the rim so he’s not even much of a lob threat… he’s got a developing jumper which kind of looks ok but i’m not sure if it’s workable outside of being wide open… he’s ok if you want to invest a 1st rder in a pj tucker type.. but narrow guys like this that don’t wow athletically usually are second rd if they are drafted at all (e.g thybulle, tucker)..
boston was very highly touted coming in.. he was most folks #3 guy behind cunningham and green but he laid an absolute egg at kentucky… guys like him usually do get drafted in the first rd tho and sometimes they make it… cory joseph is one recent example where a poor freshman year was misleading… jaden mcdaniels and cole anthony too depending on how you view their rookie years…
if you took the ball out of his hands and turned him into a low usage catch and shoot guy… like jaden mcdaniels.. then maaaybe he can be like that… but why spend a 1st rder on a guy like that? and maybe everything was just a fluke too.. but it’s probably not… the guy is just too perimeter oriented because he can’t turn the corner against college defenders.. he then goes to bullyball but he’s too thin to have it do anything.. i watched a lot of kentucky games early in the season and i just had to stop it was just too ugly.. there was a lot of desperate ugly attempts and he very often looked overmatched…
and the upside to that is IQ looked about the same too on his drives and maybe he manages to shoot lights out from 3 where you can forget about all that but to me it’s not a bet that you’d win very often…. so yea i would think that boston would be setting a pick on fire…
IQ was mocked DEEP into to the 2nd rd:
nbadraft.net – 44
espn – 58
si.com/jeremy woo – 43
theringer.com – 39
nbcsports – 59
he basically had zero first rd buzz… so yes it was VERY surprising that he went anywhere near the first rd… boston on the other hand .. some people seem to think someone will pick him… and that’s only because someone with preseason top 5 buzz usually does get picked in the first rd regardless of how bad their first year goes…
so if you believe in the power of worldwidewes… then i’d be very worried about boston…
If the Suns want to win game 6, I think CP3 is going to have to step it up a notch on offense. Booker has too pressure on him to create and score in key situations right now. Ayton and CP3 are scoring, but you need multiple guys that can create and score on their own down the stretch. The Bucks have Giannis, Middleton, and Holiday making big plays down the stretch. The Suns have Booker.
I’m not sure how much Holiday was worth, but he’s been one of the better two-way players in the league for a long time as has Middleton.
@ Alan,
That’s fair and they may have had some inside info. Because Boston is a freshman, Payne won’t know him
@ djphan,
Thanks. I saw some clips of Garuba that impressed and every summary raved about his defense. I was definitely interested, but sounds like his jumper is more wishful thinking than anything real
Rumor has it that we’re trying to move up into the late lottery and have a particular player targeted. Who might that be? Bouknight, Mitchell, Sengun?
Given our history, maybe we want a double Toppin.
Garuba? LOL
So in Milwaukee these two days are like June 18, 1994 for us, Knicks fans. What a beautiful day, i really thought we’d steal one in Houston and take the championship.
At first..I wondered that if the team ends up drafting Jared Butler, who would start at PG between him, Rose, Vildoza, and Quickley. Then I saw that Butler is built like DSJ. 6’3″ with a 6’4.5″ wingspan. By contrast, the diminutive Sexton has a 6’6″ wingspan. That’s crazy. Wouldn’t that mean Butler is just as limited in who he can guard as Sexton?
Anyways..under that scenario, Quickley has to grab the starting job by the horns, right? We lose practically nothing in a Rose/Butler pairing. Maybe length to play passing lanes, but that’s about it. It’s starting to look like Butler will be the only viable PG option should we keep our picks. We could very well stay put and end up with at least Butler, Duarte, and either Bassey or Bleijenbergh. We may have to trade back into the 1st for Bassey or Bleijenbergh..but if we can get Bleijenbergh at 32- that would be the perfect development pick for us at SF to replace Knox. I’m torn on who I’d prefer between him and Bassey though
I’ve been thinking over the weekend about this whole Knicks PG situation. Part of me wonders if we’re better off NOT signing or trading for a PG and just run back Rose and Viladoza with one of our draft picks used on a PG?
Rose should not be a full time starter but I have a hard time thinking Viladoza won’t be better than Elf. I think he could easily be the answer for us. While I understand he will take some time to adjust, I could easily see him playing the back up role well from the get go. Let Rose start the season and then if Viladoza earns it, he takes over the starting spot. Rose could still close games in that scenario. Then use one of our first rounders on a PG as well that can develop behind Rose and Viladoza and get spot minutes. Sign Rose for like 2 years or something.
Then instead of using our cap space for a PG or trading assets for a PG, we use that cap space to resign some of the vets and maybe upgrade at the positions of need with a wing and a backup/potential starting center?
Swift, the problem is that if Vildoza isn’t ready, and/or if Quickley doesn’t develop more playmaking skills, you’re in trouble. It’s not just that Rose shouldn’t play too many minutes overall, but that he shouldn’t play too many minutes alongside Randle. I haven’t looked at the synergy numbers about the lineups, so I may be wildly off-base, but it felt like the two of them sharing the court tended to cancel out at least one’s effectiveness, even before Randle’s playoff nightmare against Atlanta.
Alan, you make a good point, but even if we draft a point guard, there’s almost no way he’ll be ready to start. Most point guards take some time to develop. I liked Rose as backup I suspect the battle for starter will be between Quickley and Vildoza. Neither will be great, but either one could easily be better than Peyton.
Just as an aside, it’s mysterious to me me how Peyton became so bad. He was never great, but the second half of the season he just seemed he couldn’t do much at all anymore.
I think the #1 option for them is to use their picks in a trade for an upgrade at PG or wing, If that’s not available they will try to move up in the draft (assuming they have a specific target in mind and a deal like that is available). If they fail at both of those and use the draft picks to make selections it was a busted off season for them. There’s no way that’s either their plan “A” or “B”. None of them is thinking 5 years from now. They are thinking about having an open window for contention starting 2 years from now with a good balance of youth and experience to give them the upside and seasoning for a long serious run with at least some flexibility to make moves/trades.
Agree with the above sentiment that, unfortunately, we need another vet pg.
I’m all for drafting a future pg but not with the expectation that he’ll get more than 10 min a game off the bench.
I like Vildoza, but he likely won’t be ready (and seems more like a combo guard for now), and Quickley definitely won’t be ready — his vision looked worse than Sexton’s last year.
Hopefully, one of Vildoza/Quickley ends up being able to play the position next year behind Rose, who should get most of the backup minutes while the other becomes a scoring combo guard off the bench.
In this scenario, Getting someone like Lowry on a 2-year deal makes the most sense, using a sort of platoon between two older pgs for a year or two until we can 1. grow our own or 2. trade for a star pg.
I hope Leon doesn’t use the metric “is he better than Elfrid?” when selecting our new PG.
Some risky ifs (Rose doesn’t get hurt, Vildoza can play a significant role in the NBA) and very little margin for error on your plan, Swift.
budenholzer has been villified throughout the playoffs as a horrible coach or at least as not doing a very good job…if they win…will he go down as the worst ever to win a title…i scanned the list…maybe Westhead was on the same level..the “one title win” guys with career sub 500 coaching records (not counting pre 1950’s) were Fitch, Motta and Westhead…what is interesting is Billy Cunningham was close to 700 win pct and in 8 yrs…only won one title..
the person who should be fired is giannis’ free throw shooting coach…whatever he’s doing ain’t working…
We could draft Sharife Cooper and I would love to watch him as our starting point guard. He has unbelievable vision and passing skills and can collapse any defense. If he can shoot at all he’s gold.
“If he can shoot at all: The New York Knickerbockers Story.”
Lol. At least he can dribble and pass the rock, which is a vast improvement over most of our guys past and present.
I know that money and players’ desire can derail it but that’s what I’d try to do.
Starters:
Lowry (2 YR 50-56 M), Barrett, Oubre (3 YR 42-45 M, 3rd year TO, I’m not crazy for him, I’m open to alternatives), Randle, Robinson.
Bench:
IQ, Vildoza, Bullock (3 YR 30-35 M, 3rd year TO), Toppin, Pelle, Gibson (VetMin), Knox, 19 (PG/SG/Wing), 21 (PG/SG/Wing). 32 (PF/C)
Two-Way:
UDFA 1, UDFA 2.
Cost: Cap Space, no present or future human assets.
Assets Remaing for Big Game Hunting at the trade deadline: movable contracts (Lowry, Oubre, Bullock, Vildoza), draft picks (2023 Dallas), young players (Toppin, IQ, 19, 21, 32), flotsam (Knox, Pelle)
You take one year (or at least until next year trade deadline) to evaluate truth or fake on Randle all-starness, Robinson and Barrett progress, IQ & Toppin ceiling,
then decide to dive or not on a big trade.
Question: Can we go over the cap In 2022-23 to resign Randle and Robinson (I think so)?
Edit:
If (and it’s a big “if”) we draft well, 19,21 and 32 can be huge cost controlled assets that can be very useful even in a trade…
Sam Hinkie denominated Jrue Holliday not good enough to win with, and immediately Processed him. Our own (*) Hands of Stone Nerlens Noel was part of the return, and oh how delightfully swell did devoted Processors think Nerlens was going to be.
(*) Or kind of, giving his impending unrestricted free agency.
yes for randle.. no for mitch… as i understand he’s in the same boat as jalen brunson meaning if we don’t give him restricted free agency this year then he will be unrestricted next year except we won’t have his bird rights…
Thanks DJphan,
so help me with my plan 🙂
can I go over the cap this summer with a Mitch extension?
(After signing the other FA, the picks and so on…)
I’d rather give fewer years and less money to Bullock as a starter than sign Oubre to a huge deal, since he really hasn’t shown much yet. Then draft an SF or hunt for a cheaper free-agent bench option.
We’ll have bird rights on Mitch and Randle, so yeah we can go over the cap to sign both in 2022. The difference between 2RPs and 1RPs is that at the end of a 4 year contract they’ll be UFA. The added problem in Brunson’s contract is that the Mavs didn’t protect that situation by having a team option on the 4th year, like the Knicks did, so they can’t make him an RFA by the 3rd year, their best option is to offer him an extension and he’ll take it.
As long as we don’t give away players/picks I’m open to discuss years/money and alternatives on free agents.
🙂
Thanks Cyber,
either way I’d like to resign Mitch, be it this summer or the next… if the price is right 🙂
i’m not actually sure on that… i think so if he’s a restricted fa? less sure if we try to extend him? i think there is a limit on what we can extend him … like 12mm or something.. but unsure whether that’s some 2nd rd pick rookie deal rule or a cap rule…
Me too, but as we’ll probably need the cap space next summer, the best path is to opt-in and then re-sign him in 2022. But Mitch is kind of an enigma for me, i don’t know what he wants or how he thinks, so letting him get to UFA might be tricky.
I’d be in favor of trying to acquire a competent veteran PG as a stopgap, somebody like Delon Wright, who is relatively useless to his crummy lottery-entrenched team. He’s just one name off the top of my head but there are surely others like him.
Kelly Oubre, Jr.
RAPM 518th (of 539 total players)
BPM 150th (of 179 qualified)
RPM 204th (of 534 total players, many on the list below him are guys 1000 MP)
RAPTOR 225th of 265 players >1000 mp
What’s a fair deal for that kind of raw upside? Clearly he is an elite player who just hasn’t figured it out at age 25. He’s only played 10,000 minutes in the NBA so there’s a lot of potential there.
I mean, he couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with Steph gravity on his side — $80M over four?
Re Mitch – think his situation is slightly different to Brunson? Something like we can either decline his option this year, and make him an RFA, or keep him on the lower salary next year and then let him be an UFA? So we could guarantee we can resign him if we decline by just matching an offer, but then we use the cap space this summer.
i could’ve sworn these 2nd rd picks didn’t have bird rights… but i’m not really finding where i read it… there was a discussion here about the brunson trade possibilities and it might’ve been there…
anyway… mitch can be a rfa or we can exercise the team option and bring him back at his 4th year cost but he would be an ufa in 2022… we could exercise the team option and extend him which is what some see us doing with him…
i don’t think getting to rfa will hurt us … neither will extending him… unless either will cost us in excess of 12-15mm aav …. as long as it’s ~10mm aav we will have a max slot available next summer..
Mitch is an RFA this year if we don’t take his option. We can sign him outright or give him the QO to let him test the market.
Mitch is an UFA next year, but we’d retain full bird rights. He’s have a cap hold of a little over $3M and we could offer him any contract up to the $25M max.
For PG, there’s plenty of competent if not spectacular PGs available in FA this year:
Payne
McConnell
Graham (RFA)
Conley
Lowry
Dinwiddie
Ball (RFA)
Dragic (Team Opt)
Rose
Some others:
Teague
Mills
Reggie Jackson
Kris Dunn (PO)
Bird Rights belong to any player with a team for more than 3 years. I’ve never seen anything on 2nd rd picks not having them.
Dj- what you’re after, I think, is the so-called ‘gilbert arenas provision’. 1rps have a fixed contract structure but 2 rps don’t. This meant some 2rp contracts were k my 2 years, which don’t come with full bird rights (which require three years with the same team). Teams signing a 2rp to a 2-year deal had matching rights but only under the cap when those players became RFAs. This was changed so that they still only had matching rights up the the cap, other teams can only offer a first year at or below the MLE, meaning in theory the drafting team can always match.
We signed Mitch to a 4-year deal with a team option so we already have full bird rights at the end of year three.
Yeah, I mean I would be fine signing another vet pg too so its not all on rose and villadoza and the rookie. I guess I’m just shying away from big money to a VET pg on top of rose. Lowry/Conley might be too much. Maybe Dragic or someone that is better than Elf but not super expensive and can be cut/traded if Villadoza/Rookie/IQ step up?
I think the issue is usually that 2RPs don’t get a full 3+ year contract as firsts do. Because Brunson had been with the Mavs for three full seasons, DAL would have his Bird rights and also they would transfer with them upon trade. A player only loses their rights if:
(1) he leaves the team via free agency
(2) his team renounces Bird rights, which is undone if the player re-signs with that team
(3) he leaves via expansion draft
(4) he is waived and not claimed
It’s pretty complicated, but 2RPs are just as eligible for Bird rights as 1RPs. They just rarely stay with a team for 3 uninterrupted seasons, relative to their esteemed 1RP counterparts.
anyone else catch the new space jam movie?
lebron wasn’t bad, don cheadle was delightful…not a good movie, but, wasn’t totally terrible 🙂
honestly though, they could could’ve just done a new movie on marvin the martian – and, i’ve been in to it…marvin and that green pluto were some of my favorites as a kid…
i need this marvin shirt…
If you can’t get your desired Pg you get Ish Smith and have your stopgap plus you make Clyde thrilled!
I would test the price for Jalen Brunson and then if he is too expensive I would sign Shane Larkin. I banged the drum for him last year and I still think he would be a great pickup. If neither of them I could live with Ball but I want no part of any PG over 30 and think really hope we don’t chase wins next season in some misguided attempt to “build” on this fluky year.
We need to be patient and just try to keep building a long-term playoff team. I want to see this team win at least 45-50 games every year for the next decade and not sell the farm for a couple years of 55 wins and 2nd round playoff exits.
As for the draft, people seem down on Garuba but he looks like the real deal and is a very young and promising European player. He is more of a C than a PF and can play next to Randle and Toppin. Garuba and Cooper/Springer would be a nice haul. Also, I’m really hoping for Herbert Jones with either #32 or a pick we buy. I think he will surprise people.
BTW – I don’t know if anyone here reads any of the fansided blogs? They are totally hilarious drivel where fans propose lopsided trades that favour their teams and then call it a ‘rumour’. But they’re good for a laugh sometimes and they often make it onto google results.
Anyway – this week a cava fan proposed my all time favourite hone-bias trade. In their assessment of ‘fair value’ for sexton they proposed sexton, Prince and love for RJ, IQ, Toppin and all four of our picks this year. Gotta love it.
We may not agree as a group on pursuing sexton but I think we can all get on board on the same side of this one.
If we take back Love, we get Sexton, the #3 and we give nothing… scratch that we give them Kevin Knox
To be clear, I don’t think signing Lowry or Conley to a bigger 2 year deal would be bad. It definitely would be a way for us to seriously upgrade PG next year with a proven winner either way but still keep our picks/assets to possibly draft/develop a future PG/build our youth assets. So that wouldn’t be a bad route and after thinking of all the other options (trade for Sexton, sign CP3, sign Ball, etc)…I think signing Lowry or Conley to big money for 2 years would be really good.
But I guess I feel like the wings/bigs positions there are some opportunities in free agency this year to get some younger dudes who would be upgrades themselves over what we had this past season and could also potentially be part of longer term plans if we spent more FA money at those spots than on PG. So maybe resigning Rose and going with a cheaper option for another vet pg than lowry/conley, might be a slightly better strategy?
Woof.
Really need to start getting away from trying to make something out of the Collin Sextons and the Kelly Oubres of the world. There’s a reason they become journeymen at a young age. (It’s not even remotely clear at this point that the Cavs are in fact going to take one of the Jalens; many mocks have them taking Mobley. That isn’t why he’s being shopped.)
time to bring up IQ from the select team…
I wouldn’t mind getting Conley for 20-22M max per year but for 30-35M I’m not interested.
He seems to me like a “clean-cut well respected playing it safe till retirement-pro vet” while i think our squad needs a bad mfker.
We need Lowry.
Badly.
Or his Lidl replica Schroeder!
Otherwise…Just get Ish Smith!
That’s… not good. I’m starting to be thankful that they didn’t call Julius.
I also don’t see how Utah can let Conley leave. They’re capped out, so the wouldn’t be able to replace him. Seems like they need to keep him.
Utah needs to keep its core and just make microarrangements to contend for the chip.
They re almost there. If they lose Conley theyd have to pull a rabbit out of their hat.