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[NYTimes] On Pro Basketball: Basketball Is Beside the Point During N.B.A. All-Star Weekend (Sunday, February 17, 2019 10:45:16 PM)
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(Sunday, February 17, 2019 4:09:49 PM)
Like every other professional sport commissioner, NBA’s Adam Silver is not a fan of tanking.
161 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2019.02.18)”
I’ve been busy doing productive things with my life, but to pick up on a previous conversation.
1. The question of what Willy was worth or whether we manged him correctly is a separate issue. I believe the Knicks would have been way better off with either Willy or KOQ than Kanter. KOQ is a better all around player that would have been cheaper and Willy is a massively cheaper version of Kanter with upside. It was no major catastrophe, but trading for Kanter made us worse.
2. Willy wanted out because Kanter jumped him in the pecking order and he and Noah were essentially getting no minutes. We were in an impossible position with 4 Cs all of which deserved minutes on that team.
3. One of the many reasons that KP wanted out (aside from this management team being handed a few young players, all its picks, 20 million of cap space and turning it into players like Hardaway, Mudiay, Hezonja, Knox, Burke, Beasley and other stellar high IQ defenders) is that Willy is KP’s best friend and they wanted to play together.
Melo was done after his injury. I don’t think buying him out instead of making that trade would have been the worst idea given what what was known at the time.
Willy and KOQ weren’t meaningful enough to matter, but we are historically bad due to a series of paper cut level decisions (setting aside Hardaway which was a slash to the jugular). We now find our selves dependent on a 2 superstar level talents joining NY this summer or our rebuild has been set back an extra 2-3 years. I know “time” doesn’t matter here. People think the idea is to keep getting worse. Well, with the kind of players this management brings it there’s no worry there. But TIME does matter in the calculations.
William James once said that belief creates the actual fact.
James would have probably been very proud of strato’s will to believe.
It’s rumor and innuendo but still….
James Dolan Reportedly “Courting Offers” For Sale Of The Knicks
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2019/02/18/james-dolan-reportedly-courting-offers-for-sale-of-the-knicks/#73252b5d1cb2
We wouldn’t have the best player currently on the team who is 20 years old and signed to a 4/$6M contract, but also, Joakim Noah might’ve been happier. So it really is a situation where you have to consider both sides.
All due respect, but those are the facts.
Informed people disagree on player value all the time. I think the boxscore models miss too many things too often to be used alone.
Informed people disagree on trades and strategy all the time. I think tanking make sense as a one time event when you have a team of veterans whose window has closed and no flexibility (like the Grizzles now), but you should be trying to move forward after that.
There’s no way around the fact that despite Phil being bad, he inherited a team of low IQ misfits and malcontents, no 1st round picks in 2 of his first 3 years, and not much flexibility. Even with the Melo/Noah gaffs and a few other paper cut level mistakes (most of which I was against at the time) , he left a team with KP, Frank, Willy, Dotson, Kornet, 20 million of cap space and all it’s 1st round picks. That’s not a terrible position to inherit.
There’s no way around the fact that KP is gone, Willy is gone, Knox sucks on both ends so far, they blew the 20 million of cap space with Hardaway, have a historically bad team, and their best chance for a quick turnaround ironically is not getting a great draft pick (even Robinson came in the 2nd round so tanking was not a factor), is CAP SPACE. I’ve been the one arguing that people here underrate cap space as an asset. We may put 2 superstars into that cap space. Of course one will be 31 and get 4 years and the other is young but already has somewhat chronic knee issues, but because these guys are going to make the moves no one will question it IF it happens.
I’d probably never discuss any of this again if people would just admit that these guys suck TOO.
Kornet was signed after Phil was fired.
Willy is one of those guys who falls through the cracks of the box score-based advanced stats. By PER and WS48, he’s an above average player. BY WP48, he’s a star. By BPM and VORP, he’s a scrub. So it comes down to fit in today’s game. There is a niche for Willy’s game….see this comparison with Vucevic and Kanter at the 24yo-season mark. I just think that Willy is a bit smaller and dumber than Vucevic, and not as dynamic as Kanter, at least by the eye-test.
Both Kanter and Vucevic were foolishly overpaid; Kanter grossly so and Vucevic less so…he’s finally earning close to his $11-12 mill after 4 years but is now expiring and I wouldn’t commit big bucks to him, orlando should let him walk. Those kinds of players are fool’s gold in today’s NBA. You’re far better off paying a pittance at this role to a reclamation project like Vonleh or Okafor and spending the big bucks on either two-way players or one-way savants.
As to Willy, if he gets better to the point of being a rotation player on a playoff team, it probably won’t be until after this contract expires. At the end of the day, he’s simply too expendable to quibble over at this point. Getting a reload on the pick plus an extra one is excellent asset management. If CHO was smart, they should have offered us Frank Kaminsky instead. Talk about overpaid one-way players! Even if you think we were dumb for not playing Willy more, how dumb does that logic make CHO for playing Frank over him? He’s another guy that you should jump at the chance of unloading for 2 2nd rounders, or even one.
Speaking of which, where do we sign up for a Frank for Frank swap? (let the outrage begin!)
I don’t know. Getting Kanter also meant getting that 2nd round pick which turned into Mitch. To me, drafting Mitch and then locking him up for $1/year the next 3 seasons after this one…kind of makes it all worth it. Mitch could be better than KP, Kanter, KQ, Noah and Willy!
I think KP liked playing with Kanter and the team was doing pretty well last year comparatively with the two of them in the starting line up. They actually meshed well together cause KP could cover up for Kanter on defense, Kanter played inside the paint and could rebound. If anything, maybe the way Kanter was treated THIS season had more to do with KP wanting to leave than with Willy being traded last year.
I agree we should have played Willy more last year. But now we have Mitch and Kornet and I think they are better than Kanter and Willy and certainly younger than KQ and Noah. I feel like this all kind of worked itself out? Plus we got 2 second rounders out of it. And in the last two years we’ve drafted Dotson and Mitch with our second rounders and picked up Trier un-drafted. Plus we did pick up Willy with a second rounder too. Even if he ultimately sucks, he’s still a good pick in the second round. So I’m fairly confident in our scouting department to find good players in the second round.
Is there any GM who doesn’t look good if you write off all of their enormous, franchise crippling blunders as “gaffes,” write off their lesser but still shitty blunders as “paper cut level mistakes,” and overrate the hell out of every single player they drafted in the face of overwhelming evidence that those players range between mediocre and terrible?
That’s zero players who have been legitimately productive over a full NBA season, the overwhelming majority of the cap tied up in absolute garbage (Melo/Lee/Noah/Thomas hahahaha oh my god Phil Jackson was so dumb), and while it was nice of him to not trade any first rounders, it sure would be nice to have the 31st overall pick this year! I do have fond memories of the Wear Bear era though.
The jury is still very much out on them. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if in a few months I think they’re pretty bad, but as of now they’ve done exactly what they should have done from a strategy perspective. I absolutely despised the Knox pick and will offer no defense of it except to say that, unlike Phil Jackson’s “gaffes,” it legitimately stands out as an exception to otherwise rational moves.
There is no world in which this team is in a better place because it signed Doug McDermott to a 3/$21M deal, Justin Holiday to a 2/$9M deal, and outbid the Pacers for KOQ.
I understand that, but imo that’s not how you evaluate trades.
You don’t look at who ultimately got drafted with a pick or who ultimately got put into cap space or who you ultimately traded for etc…. Those things are often impossible to know at the time you make a deal. You have to look at the value of what you gave up and the
you got back.
Was the glut at C for a player you didn’t need and the potential downsides of that worth a 2nd round pick instead of just buying Melo out?
Robinson is the kind of independent thing where if there’s a player you really want, you make sure you get him with a move. Cuban wanted Doncic. So he made sure it happened by giving up 2 1st round picks.
A 2nd round pick is a 2nd round pick.
Recognizing Robinson’s talent, taking a shot, and doing it all in the 2nd round was a major coup.
I take a fairly diplomatic stance on Phil. I think its very fair to say that he inherited a team of malcontents and only had one first round pick in his first 3 years. He left us with KP and all of our picks going forward. I also think people focus way too much on the D Williams and Affalo deals as they were one-year deals. They didn’t hurt us at all.
I actually liked what he was doing up until he fired Fisher. That, for me, was the beginning of the cracks in his plan starting to show. I LOVED the Rolo signing as he is one of my favorite lunch pail players in the NBA. And Rolo/KP was a very good front court. Would have loved to see them play together more after KP’s rookie season. When he traded ROlo for Rose and then signed Noah, that is when he truly went off the rails. Of course looking back the Melo resigning with a NTC was horrible but I do think maybe he was required to resign Melo by Dolan. That’s just my hunch. But that first real off season when he signed Rolo and nabbed KP in the draft (and Willy)…that was a pretty decent off season and wasn’t bad as far as half rebuilding/half competing.
The winter before Phil Jackson took over, James Dolan was told by an outside firm that trading 1RPs was the big reason his team was so bad. If Dolan never figured that out, I’m quite certain Phil Jackson would have traded a 1st round pick for George Hill or some other trigonometrically awesome talent.
Phil Jackson was terrible. Scott Perry and Steve Mills are leagues better than him.
Sorry Strat, I missed the lead up to this conversation. But what exactly is your position here?
People say you can just buy 2nd round picks but is that really a thing anymore? I know we did it a few times 6 or 7 years ago (I think Donnie did it a few times). But in my memory, I can’t remember a team buying a 2nd round pick in the last few years. It seems like this is something that happens a lot less as teams now value all picks a lot more, even second round ones and don’t just sell them off anymore.
1) I think people changed their valuation of 2nd rounders (could be more could be less).
2) The new NBA TV deal means owners probably don’t care as much about the money
3) The NBA put a cap on the money teams can send away in a trade over the course of a season. I don’t know what it is now, but the starting limit was $3 million.
Strat, I don’t know why I even respond, but here goes:
If you waive Melo, you have no hope for that ever turning into something positive. As a gambler, you of all people should know that it’s a stupid choice when there are others that involve no added risk but possible reward. Not only did we get the pick that led to Mitch, we got the theoretical chance that Kanter might net something back (didn’t happen but whatever) and that McDermott might have gotten something back (which he did, unfortunately it was Mudiay.) So at worst it was a no-harm, no-foul deal, but at best, it may have actually changed the fortunes by leading to Mitch. (I’m assuming you have backed off of your dumb “we could have just bought a 2nd rounder” position, as there is absolutely no evidence for that being a possibility.
This may come as a shock, but Stratomatic is engaging in some revisionist nonsense. The second rounder in the Melo deal was the Bulls’ 2018 second rounder, and they were projected to be the very worst team prior to the 2017-2018 season. It was actually a minor disappointment to see the pick wind up as low as 36th (it was considered very likely that it would be 31-33 right after the trade). A pick like that is arguably more valuable than a late-first for reasons we’ve discussed here a million times. It was a pretty damn valuable pick before any selection was made, and everyone following the situation knew so at the time.
I want you to articulate what these “downsides” were because as far as I can tell, you think the trade in which we acquired the pick we used to draft Mitchell Robinson was not good because it created conditions that lead to Joakim Noah leaving the team. I’m going to be charitable and assume I’m misunderstanding something, because that would be the most batshit opinion ever put forth on this website.
For one, we obviously disagree on player value.
KP (albeit with serious injury concerns) is wildly underrated here because people worship boxscore metrics that don’t capture individual defense, his contribution to bringing big men out on the perimeter and the poor use of his measurable scoring skillset to date.
People seem to like Dennis Smith Jr, but his intrinsic value and contribution to winning is closer to Mudiay’s, Hezonja’s etc.. than anyone else’s (at least now).
Their moves make sense if you think bringing in LOW IQ terrible young players that don’t play defense is a good idea.
Their moves make sense if you’ve bought into the latest bologna that tanking works better than viewing players, cap space, and picks as assets with intrinsic value and you should try to add value wherever it’s present at that moment in time. (The one exception is the vet team whose window is closed. Then you should trade present value for future value and tank for a YEAR).
I look beyond boxscores and don’t like bologna.
You are too much of a troll to have a conversation with.
At the time of the trade we already had 3 productive or potentially productive Cs (KOQ, Willy, and Noah). Taking on Kanter meant that 2 of the 4 were going to be pissed and we were going to have to make another move. Why bother unless Kanter is an upgrade? Of course some people here thought he was an upgrade because of the boxscore (hahaha), but so be it. The deal made no sense strategically, did not return a lot, and caused us to lose 2 better assets than Kanter. We got a 2nd rounder for all our trouble.
I’m not going to argue for another deal because I don’t know what Portand was actually offering. I’ll assume Portland’s deal was worse. I just don’t think buying out Melo would have been such a bad alternative. We bought Kanter out eventually anyway. That deal was probably more aggravating than it was worth even though it was a paper cut.
@16
I hear you.
Getting back a 2nd round pick for Melo was a plus.
I am saying that doing a deal for Kanter specifically caused a glut at C and management issues that lead to us losing 2 players I’d rather have than Kanter to begin with. It was also part of the same pattern of them overvaluing terrible defenders and not seeing the value in defensive role players.
It’s too much of a minor paper cut to discuss further. I’d just rather still have KOQ and/or Willy and have bought out Melo.
What that 2nd rounder turned into is a different discussion. If I was management and loved Robinson late in the 1st round or early in 2nd, I’d make sure I had a pick to get him like Cuban did with Doncic. Sometimes you have to use 1 asset you like to get 1 you like better.
Wow, so I was actually right. Stratomatic thinks the trade that brought us Mitchell Robinson was bad partially because it meant there was no longer a place on the team for Joakim Noah. We all owe ruru/er etc. an apology. There is truly no coming back from Stage 4 Phil Jackson Disease.
Ah but again, the pesky facts get in the way. The Portland deal was never on the table in any meaningful sense, because Carmelo Anthony didn’t want to waive his full no-trade clause to go there. It was a tough break for us that the NTC just wound up in his contract magically, without any GM putting it there or anything.
1. Phil was bad, but not as bad as the consensus.
2. These guys are also bad.
3. Tanking is now wildly overrated as a team building strategy.
@21
You are troll or incapable of having a serious conversation and are now on ignore.
[laughs at statistics, invents narratives through intuiting player psychology]
checks out
Melo was so bad by the time we traded him almost anything would have been a good return. He had a no trade clause and one of the worst contracts in the NBA. We got a tradeable player, a pick, and a bad but less bad contract-you weren’t getting anything better than that. O’Quinn left because he wanted to go to a team that didn’t suck.
@24
You are one of the guys that thought getting Kanter was a major score because he had pretty boxscore numbers and a high WS/48. The fact that teams targeted him on defense and his own team was invariably much worse when he was on the court slipped through the cracks.
The problem is not stats.
The problem is the stats you are looking at to the exclusion of other relevant information.
The idea that the glut caused a problem (one that anyone could have predicted) is a fact.
I had to hit mute on the all star game broadcast after hearing Kenny Smith say “ here we go” and “pull” for the 20th time – it just got too annoying.
Kind of a stupid game but that was a nice tribute to Wade and Nowitzki and it was a great idea of the league to show and honor all of those old timers.
I don’t think keeping Willy instead of trading him would have moved the needle much, but by all means let’s carry on debating it until the draft lottery.
In the year KOQ was so badly marginalized by Kanter he had no choice but to leave the team he played a career high in minutes
KOQ wanted to stay.
He left because we had Kanter (unfortunately), our management team didn’t value him correctly, and we drafted a very good prospect. He’s still a good role player (better than Kanter). He’s not getting time in Indiana because Turner and Sabonis are simply way better.
Strat do you know how to use google?
https://www.slamonline.com/nba/kyle-oquinn-turned-down-knicks-play-more-next-years-draft/
After hours of intense research, I came up with this list of current NBA players with no-trade clauses:
LeBron and Melo were the last two, and since they’ve been moved there are now none. Melo’s NTC was one of the all time dumbest moves by a GM, just a completely unnecessary giveaway.
Phil should write a book “The Art of the Capitulation”
There’s no reason to bash Farfa here. He writes great recaps and is not even part of this argument.
@30
He’s just twisting stuff around so that it fits his narrative, this whole discussion is the most pointless shit I’ve ever seen on this site and I’ve been here for a lot of the Ruruland era.
Strato has already said multiple times that he really believes he’s smarter than anyone here, at least partly because he’s older. That should have been the nail in the coffin. I’m annoyed too at the revisionist stories and the literally batshit insane tales he’s making up to prove an argument that nobody even cares about anymore, but damn me if I’m going to engage him at his level.
Pretty much.
KP: Certainly a talented player with lots of upside, never got his scoring to an acceptable level of efficiency, very questionable given his injury and stamina issues whether he will be worth the max contract he will command. But I’ll give you that one. Good pick.
Frank: One of the worst players in the NBA, looks like an almost certain bust after two very poor seasons.
Willy: Can’t get minutes on bad teams, outdated and irrelevant player. You can find guys like this on the scrap heap these days.
Dotson: Generic back-of-roster guard, nothing special, just about every team has one or two guys like this. Fungible.
Kornet: Not acquired by Phil.
$20M in cap space: Doesn’t buy you a whole lot
So, to recap, after inheriting a 37-win team, Phil Jackson produced seasons of 17, 32 and 31 wins, while tying up tons of cap space in league-worst contracts to unproductive veterans and acquired a grand total of ONE useful piece for the future in the process. Oh, and that whopping $20M of cap space, which buys you a player of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope quality on the open market. Or Tim Hardaway Jr if you happen to be really fucking stupid.
Wasn’t that bad doe! I mean he didn’t traid da first round pickzz, amirite?
Has anyone here ever argued that tanking is mutually exclusive from acquiring cap space and picks? Seems like acquiring cap space and renting it for more picks is absolutely part of “tanking” as a rebuild strategy.
That seems reasonable, given that earlier in the season KP seemed on board with everything, and only as Kanter was being jerked around did KP request the first meeting with Perry early in January). But it is also reasonable to think he wasn’t thrilled that his friend from Spain, Willy, was jerked around before that by Hornacek.
Strat is correct is saying that the trade for Kanter created a problem because of all the big men. That problem, however, only existed because 1) Phil gave Melo the megamax, 2) then he traded Rolo for Rose and gave Noah a terrible contract because he felt he needed to surround Melo with players who would theoretically help the team succeed during Melo’s contract.
That original sin was franchise-crippling. The best evidence is that during the final three years of the contract – the majority of it, in other words – Melo has been injured, unproductive, unplayable, and now essentially out of the league. That was entirely predictable – predicted, in fact, by almost everyone on this board. It was worse than I expected, as I thought Melo’s game wasn’t predicated on athleticism and thus wouldn’t go full pumpkin so quickly, but it was still obviously a bad move.
Any assessment of Phil has to begin there. And it is such a glaring mistake that it pretty much can end there. And I say that as someone who acknowledges that the Chandler trade wasn’t an obvious error (Dalembert’s stats from the prior year made him look like Chandler-lite), that not having two first round picks in three years is absolute death in today’s NBA, and that drafting KP was both the best move and not a no-brainer.
These seem like pretty reasonable positions. Not sure why anyone is going crazy over this question.
I think (1) turns on how much of Noah’s problems and poor play were due to NY being “too lit”. Otherwise he’s probably tradeable and we don’t get saddled with waiving him, even as an injury risk. Melo was going to happen regardless of who was GM.
I disagree with (2). Mills was bad (terrible) on his own. Since Perry came on, I’ve generally like his moves.
(3) has yet to be determined.
Strat doesn’t understand the concept of win curve at all. That’s the first problem. He’ll decry the idea of “tanking” a lot, like you have to be terrible for 15 years to rebuild, and that the Sam Hinkie method is the only way to do a true rebuild and that you should be working really hard to make marginal improvements to your hopeless 31-win team, because a 34-win team is closer to good than a 31-win team.
The second problem seems to be that he seems to see Phil Jackson as some sort of Baby Boomer kindred spirit, like these whippersnapper Gen X guys who are all 50 years old now just don’t get team play and defense and pinch post passing and “system basketball” and how’s it goink. You nerds with your slide rules don’t understand that basketball isn’t played by anthropomorphic stick figure numbers, it’s played by actual PEOPLE, maaaan. Never mind that the guy with the .400 eFG% looks bad in a boxscore, those are just NUMBERS.
At the end of the day it’s very similar to speaking with ruru, who started off with a premise that Carmelo Anthony was secretly a brilliant ballplayer and the boxscore just could not express his magical defense-tilting abilities. He filtered everything through this lens– everything was gonna be great because the great Melo is on the team, and soon enough everybody would realize how great Melo truly was. Same thing here. Players that Phil Jackson acquired all seem to have magical intrinsic value that only the truly wise can see.
Whatever.
To be clear, Perry and Mills are guilty both of terrible signings (THjr, Hustlebunny) and especially, bad management: bringing in lots of big men, not dealing with that problem quickly and decisively, which led to trading Willy for less than his value (I disagree with people that he has no value, PARTICULARLY ON THAT CONTRACT), frustrating Noah enough to get into a fistfight with Horns, and alienating Kanter…all of which likely led to KP wanting out. That’s a big pile of steaming dung right there.
But saying that one Knicks management team has done poorly doesn’t mean the other earlier/subsequent management team did well. In fact, in the world of the New York Knicks, that is against the laws of man and nature.
I do agree with Strat that KP is underrated. Giving him the max would probably have been a mistake, but because of injury concerns and stamina issues, not ability or potential. Current metrics do underestimate the impact of defense, and his primary value to date has been at that end. Occasionally the thought flashes through my mind of what a healthy KP may do over the next five years, and it makes me very sad.
Phil signed Kyle O’Quinn to a very nice contract. That’s pretty much the only good thing he did. He didn’t trade any first round picks which is good only in the context of Knicks historical ineptnesses.
@40
The THjr offer sheet was signed a couple weeks before Perry was hired. That was all Mills. Perry hasn’t done anything too stupid yet, IMO, but nothing that great either. A lot of ok or inconsequential moves, but that still puts him above anyone else we’ve had running the team for a couple decades.
Is nobody going to talk about the rumors that Dolan is taking offers to sell the team?
@43
I know. I didn’t say that Perry made the decisions; I said Perry and Mills, as they have been the two people calling the shots sequentially since Phil was booted. They have each made some poor decisions – Mills with two terrible deals (albeit for marginally useful players, in the right scenarios), and Perry for some terrible players AND some terrible deals (trading for Mudiay, signing one-year deals for Hez and Vonleh) AND drafting Knox.
Perry also made some good decisions (hello, Mitch! and hey, Alonzo), and the trade of Melo was by and large a good one. But the issue with trading Willy is not
but that the process was flawed. They created a problem – necessarily, as Melo had all the leverage and they did well to get what they got out of OKC – and then didn’t deal with the problem, and in fact depressed the value of the players who were part of the problem to the point one who had been in the mix for Rookie of the Year was traded for second round picks and another will be on our cap for years to come.
Noah is on Phil, but the money on the cap in the years to come is on Perry.
I really don’t want to defend Perry, because I’m pretty sure he is going to end up doing really stupid things this summer, but I really don’t think Perry signed anyone to a terrible deal. Short term contracts for young, bad players isn’t terrible. It’s inconsequential, mostly. Roster filler that may have some upside since the players are young and could potentially be better. I would have rather they kept Willy, too, but a couple second round pics for a big who can’t defend a pick and roll seems to be the going rate. We’ll find out soon enough how competent Perry is this summer. My guess is he’s going to be bad just like everyone else around this team’s management.
Willy was not in the mix for rookie of the year. He was on the second team all rookie squad or whatever. This is some serious revision.
Who the F said he has NO VALUE? You’re disagreeing with zero people here.
The question is: did he have any value greater than what we got for him, i.e. two potentially low 2nd round picks (unless you believe that Charlotte going to become a contender, I can’t see those picks ever being above the mid-40’s, and there’s a strong likelihood they could be in the mid to low 30’s) Or more specifically, could we have gotten more value out of him by playing him more? (The answer is pretty clearly NO, WE COULDN’T HAVE, since he got opportunities in CHO and wound up back on the bench for probably the same reasons he was benched here.
Respect your elders, sonny.
I will say that the Willy trade might come to be the first instance of me not liking a move the Knicks made but then seeing it actually work out well. If he is truly unplayable on defense, the process behind the trade (which is the only thing I still have doubts about at this point) will look a lot better.
For now, I still think they should’ve just waived Kanter immediately and given Willy all the minutes he could’ve handled.
Are you really trying to justify Noah’s behavior by saying its Perry and Mills’ fault…that they drove him to act that way? Shouldn’t Noah be accountable for his own actions? Seriously?
Dude was washed up when Phil signed him. He got hurt. He partied (NYC was “too lit”). He took PED’s. Hornaceck, Mills and Perry had every reason to not trust him and not play him. And Noah ATTACKED Hornaceck. I can’t believe we’re putting this on them.
Scott Perry doesn’t need to be a Masai Ujiri level general manager because he’s located in Toronto. The Lakers missed on 3 straight top 2 picks and all they had to do to land LeBron James was create cap space and appear competent. We drafted Mitchell Robinson, will be drafting very high this year, have $68M+ in cap space, appear to be competently ran, and all of a sudden Kevin Durant is moving his company to New York City. It’s an unfair advantage being in New York, and it’s one that only requires basic competence to exploit. Scott Perry and Steve Mills can’t mess this off season up if they tried.
OMG, you didn’t just say that
Bro we just watched LeBron James sign on to babysit Ball, Ingram, and Kuz because he likes the city of Los Angeles.
The Knicks are going to land Kevin Durant this summer, and even if we don’t land a second star, we could punt the rest of the cap space, help facilitate a big trade, or trade for a second star. The only possibility that scares me is if we whiff on Kyrie Irving and end up trading real assets for Bradley Beal.
There’s one person doing that and a lot of other people tearing that person to shreds
+1
Don’t you know how “jinxing” works??
I understand it perfectly.
I am totally in favor of tanking when you have a team of veteran players that have maxed out their potential and you don’t have any good way to improve the team with pending cap space or trades. At that point you should trade present value (vets) for future value (picks) and try to align the upside progress.
What I object to is making tanking a goal (it’s a last resort), implying it’s the only right way to rebuild, or insisting that every player has to be early 20s. Guys in their late 20 and even early 30s can be great value and either make for a better team or be used later as part of a trade to get a superstar.
This is what I am upset about now.
3 years ago we bottomed out with a 17 win team to get Porzingis,
It is 3 years later now. We have an historically bad team, no Porzingis, only 2 players I like (one of which everyone else hates), a 1st rounder that has been horrible on both sides so far, and a few players we took fliers on that sucked on both sides before and still suck (in other worlds dumb ass fliers).
Despite 3 years of watching us get worse instead of better when I vent about the state of affairs the only rebuttal I get is “but Phil sucked”.
Fuck Phil!
I have zero in common with Phil on any level. He’s a stoned out lefty. I argued against a ton of his moves.
What I want is for the team to move in the RIGHT direction and slowly get better.
Having a horrible team with cap space and praying that two superstars are dumb enough to sign here is not a good plan. The alternative is another 6-7 years of rebuilding after bottoming out 3 years ago. I want progress instead of going backwards. We’ve been going backwards.
If you can’t see that we’ve getting worse and going backwards or if you think that’s a good thing, so be it. I surrender.
Again. Fuck Phil. I don’t care. I hated a lot of his moves too.
So at what point do we stop endlessly relitigating the Phil Jackson Experience? Dude was a bad GM and only appears slightly less inept if you grade him on the Knicks GM curve, and even then he doesn’t come out looking good. Not all of his moves were terrible, but most were either short-sighted, flat-out stupid, or both.
Strat, why is Phil Jackson’s terribleness as a GM at all connected to the current management? Is there any reason to not evaluate them separately other than you stubbornly deciding to die on Phil Jackson’s hill?
Everyone here thinks Mills sucks – I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone here say anything genuinely positive about the man, and I’ve lurking here daily for the better part of the last decade. As for Perry, I refuse to render a verdict until I see what happens this summer, but I am cautiously optimistic that we have a genuine shot at becoming either a pseudo-contender (which I’m fine with – nothing wrong with being a 50 win team) or a team extremely well-positioned to continue the rebuild. Also, Zion.
We didn’t bottom out, we were just really bad. Refusing to actually tank properly cost us Karl Towns.
@51
I had to chuckle at that last line, because although I align myself with #TeamOptimist, we are still Knicks’ fans – which means bracing ourselves for the worst is what we do. Can they fuck this offseason up? Absolutely. At the same time, Perry has put the team in position to improve without relying strictly on Plan A (or Plan B). It’s a multi-faceted approach that has more than a snowball’s chance in hell. I’m happy with that.
Here’s the rub: it’s a position that has paths to move fwd with a top-5 draft pick. Now imagine if we win the (Zion) lottery – it will put our team in a position of strength that many of us haven’t (ever?) seen in a loooonnnng time.
At this point we gotta trust Perry. He has overall made better moves than expected and had said that they will only chase the free agents that make sense for the team. I’m never going to be able to fully trust a Knicks GM but it’s the best chance we’ve had in a while. I fully expect us to get Dolan razored anytime during the offseason, but as of now there’s not so much to complain about him specifically.
The team is in a good position, all they have to do is not mess it up.
We also didn’t tank properly in 2016-17, going 4 & 6 in the last 10 games. Could’ve been the difference between Frank and Fox, or perhaps getting a top 3 pick. We foolishly even won the very last game of the season against the Sixers, dropping us back in the lottery.
I’ve bookmarked this thread for when, come July, 2nd, we’ll sign Middleton and Tobias Harris to max contracts and there will be someone who tries to talk himself into a DSJ-Middleton-Harris-Knox-Robinson core as a contender in the making.
@62
If that happens I’ll personally fly to Italy and force feed you frozen pasta, you heathen.
I’m mildly optimistic that we won’t chase Kemba/Middleton/Tobias type players at the max.
17.0 + 17.1 + 20.7 + 12.5 + 6.1 points per game is only 73.4 points per game. How are you supposed to be a contender like that?
I agree it would not be a good line up, but, of course Knox will be scoring 20 points a game 🙂 and our bench will contribute 30 points a game, which is what our management would have to be thinking if they even considered that line up.
No problem, we can just trade Mitch for Vucevic and add 14 extra points to the mix!
Need to throw in a 1st rounder or two to make that work.
We won’t have the funds to waste on those guys after we’re done signing Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. I’ve had a glass of the Knicks flavored kool-aid and it’s delicious. Next year we’ll be watching Irving, Durant, Zion, Mitch, and Brian Cronin win 55 games in a Knicks jersey.
Yeah, seriously, being a Knicks GM gives you such a big advantage if you have a lot of cap room, and yet for almost two decades, the Knick GMs have instead clogged up the cap like crazy. They didn’t even have cap room at all from 2000-2010! How insane is that? A fucking decade over the cap when their best two players were Marcus Camby and David Lee and their most expensive players were Allan fuckin’ Houston and Stephon fuckin’ Marbury!! So yes, if Perry is just a mediocre GM, they could still get Durant and Irving to want to come here just for the cap room and New York City. I love New York City and I know most NBA superstars agree with me.
I get laughing at the potential knicksiness of trading for Wiggins or Wall. But guys like Harris and Middleton are actually good players on actually good teams. And Vucevic has been having a great season. It may not be the ideal outcome, but it’s also not like trading picks for Eddy Curry, building around Jamal Crawford, or mega-maxing 30 year old Carmelo Anthony.
Any of these haha #lolknicks players would actually make the 2019 lolKnicks a whole lot better than they are now.
I disagree on that, because I think in the case of them whiffing on the difference makers, they have to just punt 2019-20, as well. As we went over a lot at the time of the KP trade, that’s my one issue with the KP trade – I worry that the deal was a “We have to sign two max free agents this offseason now no matter what, even if we whiff on the difference makers.” I think that they are all in on this offseason and if they get two difference makers, great, but if they don’t, then they have to punt and I don’t think that they will. Harris and Middleton are good players, but them plus the current Knicks is still a woefully shitty team with not a particularly good direction for their future.
Again, though, if they sign two difference makers, then awesome. And if they miss out on the difference makers and are willing to punt, then awesome, as well.
I don’t know about Midcleton, but Harris is going to be very expensive. We would be paying for an A luster but getting a B lister. That’s not a recipe for success. We would do better to roll over our cap space for picks and expiring contracts. But that will also be difficult because a lot of teams will have cap space this summer and the market for giving up this year’s cap space for next year’s will probably be weak. It’s better to target having cap space in a year when other teams don’t; but, of course, we didn’t do that. The best thing to do if no A lister signs might be to just not spend the money, but probably no GM in history has ever done that.
The problem really lies in who Perry and Mills see as true superstars. They have said they won’t just sign anyone available, but in their evaluation, aren’t Kemba or Middleton, current all stars, A listers? Or Cousins for that matter? Mills thought it was a great idea to give THJ his contract, for example.
It really comes down to this. I do think they’re 100% all-in on Irving and Durant, and Leonard to a lesser extent, and they have to well, be dumber than us, to think Walker, Harris, Middleton, Cousins etc are at the same level of those 3. We all know Mills is a terrible talent evaluator, but Perry is still a relatively unknown quantity in that sense. The Knox pick is not necessarily a great indicator, to be honest.
I still think it’s all about Zion. If we get the 1st overall pick then most if not all of the terrible scenarios are out of the window, because even if they do go for Walker + Middleton, as long as we have Zion it’s not a complete disaster. The real disaster happens if we don’t get the 1st, and Durant, Kawhi and Kyrie all reject the Knicks. Then we’re either going for another year of tanking with a much lesser prospect than Zion, or going all in with whoever ends up being the next Amare.
It’s just a weird joke cause Vucevic is actually ranked higher than Durant, Irving, and Leonard by VORP this year.
And Harris is much improved this year too.
And Middleton is the #2 option on the beat team in the league.
They won’t win a championship paired together, but they won’t be a complete waste of time to watch like the 2014-2019 Knicks have been. (And, btw, the Knicks are going to blow their cap space this summer in players, there will be no punting. So, like in ‘96 when they struck out on a Jordan, Shaq, and Miller but ended up with Houston, LJ, and Childs, they made themselves a lot more interesting without being a real title threat (except during one unlikely * year) . That is what you’d get from a “B level” rebuild, which most of the posters here that are old enough to remember the ‘90s would probably be relatively happy with once it’s all said and done).
I remember the 90’s and never thought Houston was worth the money. Childs I don’t remember what he cost. LJ, of course, was a good player.
If all of this bullshit ends with a lineup of Kyrie, DSJ, Durant, Zion and Mitch Lob starting next October, I won’t even know what to do with myself. I won’t believe it’s true.
The reality of dolan’s razor is that we’re the only team that could get fucked by winning the Zion sweepstakes. If we win the lottery, honestly what do you think is more likely:
A) we draft Zion
B) we trade Zion, Mitch, Smith, and both Dallas picks for Anthony Davis
It’s still Anthony Davis, so it’s not like we’d be getting really fucked. I just don’t see us having the asset valuation skills necessary to make a good trade for him.
@75
I mean, obviously I’d enjoy watching a Kemba Walker / Tobias Harris / Mitch Rob / #2 overall pick core win 45 or so games and have some tough playoff series against better teams, it’s just the fact that when you’re paying those guys the max, you’re just handicapping yourself against the teams with the actual mega stars on them.
I would be very happy, for example, if the Knicks could get both Walker and Harris for a total of 45 million a year, leaving cap space to actually build a good team around them. They’re players who are worth 20-25 million per year, but the way the league works, if they’re making 35 a year each to be the top 2 players on your team it’s just very suboptimal.
Acquiring AD on draft day by trading Zion, Frank, Knox and two future 1st while keeping cap space for two max free agents basically guarantees we get two difference makers in July.
Who in their right mind would pass max money in NYC with playing with AD & another top 10 player?
That’s a unicorn type situation for any free agent.
I hope we just draft Zion (A), I fear (B)…While neither Zion or Mitch will likely match AD individually I’d rather have Zion and Mitch than AD alone…lower salary over the next 4 years, less risky from an injury perspective, greater certainty (ie no risk of signing with Lakers) and likely of greater value long-term…I really like the idea of pairing Vucevic with Mitch, as mentioned above. I think Vucevic is an unrestricted FA this Summer.
@80 – actually thatmore or less guarantees we CAN’T sign two max FAs because we won’t then have space. We have to do the AD transaction last. I guess it could be known we’d agreed in principle with NO to do it but you definitely can’t actually make the trade on draft night.
call me crazy: crazy – but, I do believe the knicks are in play…
I think it might be one of those inception scenarios – son inherits all this shit, and, to prove he’s a match for the old man – I believe jimmy d does in fact have plans to leave the dolan media empire “bigger” than when he got it…
he’s made some comments already to the effect that hosted/attended events is not where the media focus will be in the future…
in order for guitar jimmy to make his dreams come true – he needs that sweet 5 billion from selling the knicks…
I only wonder – if the knicks are in play, is that more likely to “force” the front office to make moves…any “moves”…
The Knicks actually managed to trade Melo, so sure, I can believe that it is theoretically possible for Dolan to sell. Like the Melo trade, though, I won’t believe it will actually happen until it actually happens.
I think the only thing that could impact the sale price of the Knicks is if they actually do get Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Anything else doesn’t matter, so no, I don’t think Dolan would push for them to make moves for the sake of making moves. Now, would Mills and Perry still make moves for the sake of making moves anyways? Hopefully we never have to find out.
Also, players can go wherever they want, but damn, Kawhi, how do you not like being the star player on a great Toronto team with a great GM?
Re: signing two non-max level players (Middleton, Vucevic, Klay, Harris)
I have no issue if we come away with only these guys if they are not paid the max. There’s a couple of things that make me feel that way.
First, none of the true contending teams in the last 10 years of NBA were built around signing two or three FAs to megamax deals.
The champions either lucked/skilled their way into several all-nba players in the draft (GSW, SA) or had all-time greats conspire to take less than full max deals to play there with established max players (MIA, CLE) or strategically build a fragile team around a superstar (DAL, LAL). Maybe going back one more year to the big 3 Celts is the closest thing to what we’re talking about.
However, lots of exciting contending teams have been built in lots of different ways. Celts, Raptors, Bucks in the East; and Nuggets, Blazers, Clips, Thunder, Jazz in the West all took different roads to winning teams. If the Knicks can just avoid cap-killing overpays or asset-depleting trades, we can definitely join those teams, even if it doesn’t result in a championship.
At the end of the day, no one is beating the Dubs in the next 3-4 years if they stay together, and their model is not replicable. If they decline sooner, then who knows whether there will be a dominant team to take their place. Maybe the Celts? They seem like they’re one big move away (AD?) and still have lots of rounds in the chamber, but they could wind up in cap trouble with Hayward on the books, Irving a FA, and Horford getting older. Beyond that, it’s pretty wide open.
Maybe we missed the motivation behind the Porzingis trade. If you’re selling an asset like an NBA franchise, it’s more valuable after stripping it of future liabilities like Tim Hardaway’s contract & the max Porzingis was about to sign.
The Celts are interesting in that they were within a game of NBA finals without Kyrie and Hayward and now that they are back, the team is going backwards. Personally, I think they are going to roll the dice on AD and risk that he will leave after 1 year. Even if he bolts as a UFA, that’s a guaranteed trip to the finals if he stays healthy. If he leaves, they will still have some assets and flexibility.
I think they’re going to try to use the perception that they are “rolling the dice” to withhold Tatum from any offer. Hopefully that won’t work, because that would be grand larceny. But they’re the Celtics. I’m sure it will work. They stole Kevin Garnett without giving up Rondo or their lottery pick, they’ll probably steal Davis without giving up Tatum. I’m half expecting New Orleans to announce the hiring of Kevin McHale to replace Dell Demps.
It’s not really rolling the dice when you can offer the guy the most money and a chance to win, so hopefully none of that BS gets priced into the deal.
Ultimately, I think the Pels want AD out of the conference, and certainly not with the Lakers. Thanks to the KP trade, we might be the only team that can compete with both the Celts and Lakers in terms of what we can offer AND as a destination where AD might sign a long term deal. The Clips are on the list, but again, they’re in the same conference and not necessarily a great situation for AD.
If I had to bet right now, I’d go with either the Knicks or Celts. OTOH, I wonder if Demps got fired for refusing the Lakers deal…not that there weren’t a million reasons to fire him…
You know, I think it could be ok to sign players with our cap space who aren’t KD, Kawhi or Kyrie.
STAT did play like an MVP for one season. But he was a walking injury waiting to happen from day one. Once he did that trick dunk in warm ups he basically never performed again at that level he did when he was first here. If he had signed the exact same contract with us and performed at that level for the majority of it, I don’t think we would have hated it so much.
Melo was traded here in a trade that basically depleted all of our assets, both our young players (Gallo, Chandler, Mozgov) and some picks. If we had signed him outright in free agency the following summer, we would have been able to build a really deep team around him and STAT.
STAT and Melo ultimately played the exact same position so it was dumb to have them as your two main guys.
Neither of them played defense.
So it wasn’t just that we used our cap space on two lesser stars, it was all the above reasons why it didn’t work out. If we signed say Middleton and Harris with our cap space, signed then to fair value contracts that left us with a little money over to spend elsewhere, and we didn’t make some huge trade that got rid of our young players and picks (which is why I oppose trading for AD)…then I feel like it would work out much differently. Is it a championship team? Probably not. But I have never subscribed to the championship or bust mentality. For me the goal should be building a sustainable winner. One that in 4 or 5 years from is still looking sustainable because you didn’t make any huge mistakes with free agent signings and you’ve kept your picks and kept developing the young players you bring in every year.
And I have to say, as attached as I am to Mitch right now, if the Knicks wind up with a core of KD, AD and Kawhi but have no assets left, it would still be pretty cool. Not what I would do, but definitely interesting.
They would be pretty stupid to take an offer from Boston that doesn’t include Tatum just to get Davis out of the conference.
That doesn’t mean I disagree with you. But that should be the 8th tiebreaker if all things are equal, not a prime motivator.
The prototypical signing for us would be someone like Al Horford. You could argue that he is the guy that made the Celts relevant. They were able to him to a long-term deal at less than the max because of his checkered injury history, and he’s consistently overperformed his contract.
I don’t think the Celts are as attached to Tatum as you suggest, nor would it be a big deal to give him up to get AD, who plays the same role at 1000x the impact. Obviously the Celts would be foolish to include Tatum AND a billion other assets, especially without a guarantee from AD.
However, the Celts have possibly 4 first round picks this year, including a lottery pick, as well as other young assets. They could put together a pretty compelling deal even without Tatum.
It would be perfectly stupid to write off 14 of the league’s teams as trade partners because they’re afraid of playing him 4 times a year. I mean, the Pels haven’t done a great job of maintaining what should be an all-time great return on an outgoing player, but yeah, that would be painfully stupid.
Well, didn’t they do just that? Are they really going to get a better offer than what LA was willing to give up?
you guys have stockholm syndrome. you want harris and middleton you get them for like $50 million. for a good team who has no other way to improve that is maybe… maybe a necessary evil. for us that would be a fucking abomination and “is he better than eddy curry” ain’t the benchmark even for those of us who enjoyed the 90s (when at least we added houston to a good team).
STAT did play like an MVP for one season.
in Israel, maybe. here? not even close.
Also, if the goal is to compete for a championship, you have to win the conference first. If your deal makes you better but also shuts the door on getting to the finals because you just guaranteed that another team will be better than you, does that make sense? Obviously it isn’t a first consideration, but if the differences between deals are marginal (say between the Celts and the Lakers) wouldn’t you take the out-of-conference deal first?
Just to clarify, of course you don’t write off any trade partners, conference or not. But it can be a consideration in marginal circumstances.
And FWIW, I would have taken the Lakers offer, if it was really on the table.
Just for argument’s sake, the BPM of the included players:
Ball 0.7
Hart -0.4
KCP -0.6
Zubac -0.8
Kuzma -0.8
Ingram -3.2
Like, maybe the stats are fake, but that squad plus a couple of (at best) mid-teens firsts? It just doesn’t really do much for me. Maybe if you think you could flip them for more rebuilding assets. I like Ball most of all but I’m not down to head into his QO year with his salary at $11M when he’s shooting like 8% on free throws.
I feel like you can sell your basketball team to fans on winning or hope, and the Pels would be selling hope for years to come. And when your fanbase gets hopeful (hello, Porzingis fans), they’re prone to the sunk cost fallacy, which, in this case, means, “I don’t see how you let Ingram walk when he’s only asking for $80M over five years.”
It’s not that they’re attached to Tatum. It’s that they’re accustomed to winning deals in a landslide.
They should be REQUIRED to “include Tatum AND a billion other assets” because that’s what it will take to top the Lakers offer. Davis is not bolting if the Celtics acquire him and re-sign Kyrie. He’s already leaving ~$50 million on the table by leaving New Orleans. He would leave an additional ~$50 million by leaving Boston. And he has already stated publicly that Boston is a team he would re-sign with. This “uncertainty” should not be priced into the deal.
It’s not as great as it sounds. Memphis’ pick is good. Sacramento’s pick is meh. Boston’s pick is practically a 2nd round pick. LA’s pick is guaranteed to be either a non lottery pick or two 2nd rounders.
No, they cannot. We’ve debunked this as often as we’ve debunked strat’s alternate timeline where Phil was great.
If the Pels play hardball they could end up with less. Sure, the lakers offer included unproven young players and a soon to be max-eligible albatross but like KP, AD has lots of leverage. The Pels could have either kept Ball, Hart, and Kuz and packaged Ingram for assets, or sold high on all the young guys and traded holiday and gone into full rebuild mode. You don’t have to get max value on a trade to win it. You just have to put your franchise in a much better position going forward.
Unless the Pelicans really value Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart for some absolutely unknown reason, it has to include Tatum 100%, there’s not even many ways to match salary if they don’t, this is what people are forgetting.
The Celtics are over the cap by a lot, which means they have to match AD’s salary of 27 million. The best they can do without Tatum to match that number is Brown, Smart, Baynes and Yabusele. Yabusele is a non prospect, Baynes is irrelevant and Smart adds nothing to their team. They could also add Horford or Hayward and use the cap space New Orleans would have to absorb them, but that makes even less sense.
I’d 100% take the Lakers offer over this garbage, as Brown isn’t even good and would have only one more year of contract. At least with the Lakers offer you get Ball and Kuzma for two more years. Tatum is the only way the deal makes sense, unless New Orleans would rather get fleeced than trading AD to the Lakers or someone else.
So the athletic ran an article speculating that the warriors would kick the tyres on acquiring Giannis when he’s a FA in 2021. (Based mostly on one, admittedly great, bounce-lob from Steph in the ASG which – sure…)
But in it, the guy, within two paragraphs, states that Klay and Steph will account for 88m by then, that Giannis’s max will be 37+m, and that these three alone would take them ‘close to the projected 123m cap’
Firstly, those numbers alone add up to 125m. Secondly, in the incredibly low probability scenario where Klay and Steph are literally the only two players on the roster, the warriors would still have 8m in empty roster charges. Giannis would need to take at least a 10m cut and they’d still only have three players.
Couple this with the reporting of the Knicks cap position post trading KP, which was almost universally wrong… how do NBA writers get paid to write this shit and not feel obliged to run a three second back-of-envelope calculation to check their story even makes sense? I am a casual fan in another country where sports don’t even have salary caps and it took me two minutes to recognise both stories were just wrong. Not for complex capology reasons but for incredibly basic ones. It’s so f*cking lazy…
Agreed, but a lot depends on this year’s playoffs. If Tatum and Brown go off and they get to the conference finals, and Hayward looks better and healthier than he has so far, they might pass. Or if Perry gets stupid and throws the kitchen sink at AD the Pels might take that even if Ainge includes Tatum.
At some point the Celtics have to try to win a title. The’re what, the 3rd best team in the east? If they run it back are they likely to be much better next season?
The Celtics actually have a higher SRS than the Raptors and have about the same projected Pythag record. The Bucks are the best team in the East, but the Raptors and Celtics are pretty similar in terms of overall quality.
I would think the Bucks would be a much more serious challenger to the Warriors than the LeBron-led Cavs were. They have Giannis, who is playing completely out of his mind, but they surround Giannis with the #1 defense in the NBA. It’s a legit defense, they’re #1 in eFG%, #1 in DRB% and #1 in FT/FGA.
I can see a lot of scenarios where it would make sense to add Khris Middleton. If we win the lottery and get Zion. If we get the #2 and take Ja. If KD comes. If KD comes AND we get Zion or Ja. A good 3 who can shoot the 3 will be valuable in any positive configuration going forward, and Middleton is only 28.
Of course, we’re more likely to fall to 5th in the lottery and can only sign Kemba, in which case signing Middleton would mean we just get to watch second round exits for the next four years.
I should add that I see no reason for Middleton to leave the Bucks. Nor do I expect him to.
Tobias Harris, though, I do think will leave the Clips, once they sign Kawhi, and I want no part of that contract.
Giannis in 2021? I would be into that.
The Warriors have such an interesting offseason ahead. Losing KD and resigning Klay to a max just seems like a recipe for disaster….
I thought Diallo’s dunk was a little overrated and Curry to Giannis was about the best thing that has ever happened. Diallo has turned out be a decent player though. Who was the poster here who touted Diallo?
Every time someone dunks over someone it does remind me of this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMrPjl-927Q
You been asleep awhile, Rama?
Yeah, Tobias Harris has been playing for Philly for awhile now.
People are still talking about basketball?
I mean there is nothing to care about until June…
The Yanks are in camp.
BTW, I know KD got the MVP and all that, but…
I mean, was it me or was he a whiny dude most of the game?
He actually got into it with Embiid.
I think the Bucks are the best team in the east, but the Celtics have a winning record over the other top teams this season. They’re 3-0 over the Sixers, 2-1 over the Raptors and 1-1 against the Bucks.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they beat the Raptors for example, but I do think the Bucks are just a better team. Their defense is amazing, the offense is very good and they have the best player in the series on every matchup.
Assuming the Pacers eventually settle into the 5th seed, it could set up Toronto vs Boston in the 2nd round, so that would be very interesting.
I think the Bucks will face the Warriors in the finals and lose in 5, but then Durant’s decision quite literally should reshape the league’s contenders for next year. If he leaves the Warriors are suddenly beatable again, and there’s no one in the West that’s clearly set up to replace them at the top, unless the Lakers get something ridiculous like AD + Kawhi.
Giannis does not strike me as the type to leave Milwaukee. I could be mistaken, but has he ever expressed even a hint of dissatisfaction with his situation over there? It’s not as if he’s in a well publicized feud with a teammate like Durant was with Westbrook in OKC before he left to Golden State or as if he’s in a Banana Boat pact to form a superteam as Lebron was during his first stint with Cleveland. So why do reporters assume he’s upping and leaving arguably the most dominant team in the East Conference? Especially when Toronto seems doomed to break up and regress well before 2021 once Kawhi becomes an unrestricted free agent. Doesn’t make sense unless reporters are privy to information that hasn’t been publicized yet or are just speculating based upon their projections of what other superstars of the era have previously done.
Yeah the east doesn’t really have a big 4, it has the Bucks and then 3-4 good teams (depending on what you think of the Pacers). I’ve seen people saying the best 3 or 4 non-Warriors teams in the NBA are in the East, but I’d rank things like:
GS
Bucks
Raptors
Nuggets
OKC
Celtics
Philly
Those teams in the second tier aren’t in any specific order-I’d put a healthy Rockets in there as well
Giannis will likely qualify for the supermax in a year that’s expected to see the cap jump from $118 million to a new high point. It’s hard to see him leaving the Bucks if they’re good and they can make him the richest NBA player ever with a 5 year, $275mm contract. And he can play that contract out and still hit free agency again at Kevin Durant’s current age. He seems a good bet to stay. But we’ll see.
Good Lord, dumb mistake. Of course I remember, had praised Logo at the time of the trade and worried about him clearing two max spots. Just spaced when I typed. Mostly because I have been thinking more and more Kawhi is going there and not the Lakers. I think he wants to be in LA, but not with LeBron.
Here’s a random ranking: all the potential pieces in an AD trade from NY, Bos, LA. Feel free to tell me how much you vehemently disagree.
Tier 1:
1. The Knicks pick if it’s Zion
Tier 2:
2. Tatum
3. Ball
4. The Knicks pick if it’s 2-5
Tier 3:
5: Mitch
6: Robert Williams
Tier 4:
7. Memphis’ draft pick (owned by Boston)
8. Dallas’ two 1sts (owned by New York)
9. Marcus Smart
Tier 5:
10. Jaylen Brown
11. Dennis Smith
12. Kevin Knox
13. Brandon Ingram
14. Josh Hart
15. Kyle Kuzma
16. Sacramento’s 1st round pick (Boston)
Tier 6:
17. The Knicks’ own picks
18. The Lakers own picks
19. The Celtics own picks
20. The protected Clippers pick that converts to 2 2nds (Boston)
21. Allonzo Trier
Tier 7:
22. Frank
Note: In tier 5 I valued youth over production. I know everyone here thinks Knox is garbage and belongs in tier 7 with Frank, but I still think a 19 year old with his potential has value.
@122
You forgot to make an entire 8th tier for Lavar Ball all by himself when he comes in any trade for Lonzo.
@115
Mets fan here. I have mixed feelings about the Mets offseason. Not a fan of the Cano deal (don’t really hate it, though), but all else looks okay. We’ll see.
I liked this thing on Giannis. Very cool. I think he stays in Milwaukee for life, but we can dream….
Greeks baby….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrCU305tzmM&t=232s
@124
Mets fan too. I feel surprisingly good about this season for the first time since the 2015 championship run. It’s felt like a real letdown knowing that we blew the golden opportunity to win the World Series in a season where so much had went right for us only to fade every year afterwards. But this team that Van Wagneran has put together is deeper than Mets teams past and I think we’re going to make some noise in what will be an ultra competitive NL Eastern division. Hopefully Harpers signs elsewhere like Chicago now that Machado isn’t going to the Phillies or Braves.
Also a Mets fan here. I feel like BVW has taken the team to the brink of contention without putting it over the top as a serious contender. They seem like they need one more starting pitcher, and Dallas Keuchel would be such a great fit, but that would put them up at like $177M of payroll which would be top 5 in MLB.
It’s a deep offense but they’re really going to have to hope they don’t have injuries in the rotation because there is zero depth on the pitching side.
@127
True dat. But it’s also true that most every MLB team in the league is in trouble if they lose some starters for a period of time. Even getting a Gio Gonzalez would go a long way to setting the team up for the marathon of a 162 game season. We can then move Vargas to the bullpen as the swing/longman. I do think our pen can be pretty deep depending on what pieces Brodie can add. Diaz and Familia are as good a 1-2 punch as any team in the game will sport and we have some additional righty and lefty options in Flushing and the minors that will supplement them. Callaway is going to have to do a better job using them than last year and hopefully Riggleman will help him in that regard as the new bench coach.
Yeah, Gio would be a nice pickup too. He was a 2 WAR pitcher last year and is an innings eater, he takes the bump 32 times per year like clockwork.
I think every GM in the NBA would trade this year’s 2-5 pick for Tatum. Tatum is a sure thing. How many players 20 or younger in the league would you trade Tatum for straight up? Luka and that’s probably it? Someone in this draft 2-5 might very well turn out to be better than Tatum but the risk is way too high that they won’t.
I agree. That’s why I ranked him 2nd on the list behind only Zion.
Is your point that they shouldn’t even be in the same tier? As much as I dislike RJ Barrett, I think he has enough value to be within a shout of Tatum. And 4 years of cost control vs 2 is important.
If we’re going to use BPM to tear down the Lakers’ offer, though, we must point at that Tatum has racked up a negative 0.3 this year.
There’s been some rumors by the media that “people in the know” think Giannis will leave, but nothing real it seems. I think he truly enjoys the Bucks, they have a new arena, competent owners and a great coaching staff. Even AD reportedly put them in the list of teams he would re-sign with.
There is a chance, not saying it’s a big chance, but it’s there, that this year is the “Warriors post firing Mark Jackson” year for the Bucks. They are legitimately very good and in position to retain every important part of the team for next season. As LeBron and the other mega stars like Durant and Curry go through their expected declines in the next couple of seasons, there’s a real chance Giannis is the clear best player in the league, hell, he might be the guy already.
Giannis is the best player in the league for 2020. I think he is the best player now too. He’s a great defender and an amazing offensive player.
I think Klay is endlessly overrated, but they really have no choice but to throw money at everyone on their roster. Curry’s on the books until 2022 on a $166M contract, they have a new stadium due to open next year, and they will have $89M on the books next year excluding Klay and Durant.
And there’s no such thing as “rebuilding” for the Warriors. They struck gold on multiple mediocre draft slots in consecutive seasons, yielding two GOAT seasons from Curry for a combined $22M, stole key underrated role players (Iguodala, Livingston, Bogut, McGee) from other teams, signed the previous MVP for three seasons at a discount, and even added an All-NBA PF for the mid-level! There’s no way to replicate what they did — Toronto, Milwaukee and Philly are three of the best-run franchises in the game and any of them would be ecstatic to make it to the Finals, much less three titles in four seasons and another Finals appearance in the chamber.
Also, Milwaukee is head and shoulders above the field in the EC this year. Since 1972, there have been just two teams to have a >9 SRS while failing to make the Finals: the 2015-16 Spurs, who ran into an unlikely supernova from Ibaka and Adams, and the 2012-13 Thunder, who lost Russ in their first round series to Patrick Beverley’s pugilism and couldn’t get enough out of Kevin Martin and Reggie Jackson to topple the Grizzlies’ motley crew.
Anyone with preseason odds on the Bucks (100/1 opening!) must be feeling pretty damn good right now.
Giannis’ impact right now seems pretty similar to the impact of Peak LeBron. Sky-high efficiency on high usage, massive box score stuffer, game-changing defender. That guy surrounded by a #1 defense is going to be tough to beat for anybody.
Giannis doesn’t have AD’s injury history. Or any injury history.
I understand you have to sign Klay if Durant walks. I just don’t think it’s going to work out if Draymond isn’t Draymond anymore and if they can’t work the magic they have been able to.
But that’s fine. The good thing for fans is that there is going to be an amazing EC playoff season, an amazing offseason, and what projects to be a very competitive 2020.
Is your point that they shouldn’t even be in the same tier?
Yeah, one one asset is so clearly superior to the other I don’t see how they can have pretty much the same value.
Yeah, the thing about Giannis is that’s it’s easy to overlook just how great of a defender he’s become. His steals and blocks numbers aren’t at super elite levels, but once he’s focused in, nobody is driving on him. No one at his size should have the lateral quickness that he does.
I agree that the Warriors have no choice other than maxing Klay, letting him go wouldn’t open up much cap space anyway and it would surely piss off Curry so much, to a point where you really can’t do it.
I think you might overvalue Tatum’s postseason contribution. His production in the league has been very good, especially for someone his age. But I don’t see any statistical production that indicates highly touted prospects like Morant and Barrett aren’t even in the same class, especially considering the latter have 4 years of control vs Tatum’s 2. RJ Barrett is going to have excellent trade value this summer if we end up taking him after Zion.
You’re on an island with that Tatum view, Hubert. Nobody other than Zion is going to have anywhere close to his value in a trade. That’s just factorial.
This is not to say that Tatum isn’t overrated, or that Barrett or Morant won’t be studs and turn out better than Tatum. But Tatum is very, very good, might be great, and will never be bad. Both Barrett and Morant have serious question marks. It’s all about probability.
Yeah, Tatum being overrated regarding his actual production is precisely the reason why he has more trade value. He’s seen as a proven player who’s also very young and has superstar talent. There’s no way he’s worth less than anyone but Zion in this draft. He’s the best young asset that has been speculated as part of any deal for AD.
While I agree that Tatum has greater value as an asset, I honestly wouldn’t trade Mitch for him. To me he looks like a second tier guy who you’re going to have to pay max money like Derozen or Tobias Harris.
People decry legacy contracts but when its a team like The Warriors and a player like Klay, I feel like as a franchise you gotta kind of do it. He’s been part of this title run, a historic team. He’s been part of a team that has turned the franchise around. Before this team, The Warriors were kind of a joke franchise except for a few moments of minor success. Now they can lay claim to having one of the greatest teams of all time. You have to respect that as an owner. I mean, maybe when Klay is 37 and if he wants another big contract you part ways with him but this upcoming contract, you gotta pay the guy even if you know it might mean your team won’t be as competitive in the next 5 to 6 year window. Nothing lasts forever.
While I agree that Tatum has greater value as an asset, I honestly wouldn’t trade Mitch for him.
What are you smoking and where can I get some of it? Mitch Rob has averaged less than 18 minutes over 42 games for a team that is 11 and 47. Tatum was arguably the best player for the Celtics in last year’s playoffs when they came within a game of going to the NBA Finals. And they’re essentially the same age.
Mike
there’s a lot of good FA’s this year… and someone like harris on non-max money isn’t such a bad deal….
we have our pick plus mitch and dsj… signing two young fa’s who can grow with our core young guys is something that’s very achievable… and probably not so bad…
i don’t view this offseason as durant/kyrie/kawhi or bust… in fact i think we might be almost better off picking off the youngish guys and maybe taking a calculated gamble on a RFA… harris fits.. someone like d’angelo fits.. kemba/middleton/cousins/butler probably dont….
2020 and 2021 don’t look all that great FA-wise…. unless you want to wait two years for someone like giannis…. or an old paul george…. if there’s ever a time to take a calculated gamble this offseason is it…. the FA class won’t be this deep for awhile….
Mitch is truly a unique player. I’ve never seen anything quite like him. What sets him apart to me is his speed and motor compared to his size and length, especially the length of his strides. There was that recent play where he fell down under the basket, then got up and ran out to the 3-pt line to block a shot. No one makes that play. He also has an incredible ability to stay focused on the ball, and the hang time to adjust in mid-air on both ends.
Obviously he has major holes in his game compared to guys like AD and Giannis, but he may be even more physically freakish than those guys. He’s like a taller, longer, and possibly stronger Marcus Camby. That’s an immensely valuable asset. I’m not sure he’s as valuable as Tatum, but management needs to look at him very, very closely before including him in any trades, even for AD. If he just cuts down on fouling, he’s already a $15+ million player making a minimum salary, a guy that could be even better than Clint Capela in short order.
If a group of players got you 4 titles in 5 years (and they’ll probably give you 2-3 more years of playoff basketball after Durant is a Knick), you pay them whatever the hell they want and let them retire in your jersey. Nobody is going to wear 30, 11, or 23 for Golden State after Steph, Klay, and Draymond walk away from basketball, and they’ve done so much for that franchise that you pay them to keep that together.
Henry Ellenson on a 10-day. I see literally nothing to like in his statistical profile but uh I guess we’ll see what happens?
Ellenson seems like a very weird pickup, he barely played and kinda sucked when he did, his college stats are very mediocre and even his G-League stats aren’t anything to be optimistic about.
However, one interesting thing I found is that he’s represented by a Roc Nation agent, the same guy that works with LeVert and Justise Winslow. Roc Nation obviously also represents Kevin Durant, so maybe it has something to do with that, either a favor to them or a hopeful move to get on their good side?
You shouldn’t be giving legacy contracts to a 29-year-old at 5 years, $190M. That’d be foolish.
I think you could also argue that they respected him by giving him $79 million dollars so far in his career, and elevating him, through exemplary roster management, from role-player status to a guy who’s made an All-NBA team, is a national celebrity and is looking like a shoo-in at $190M, which is way too much for a guy with his numbers.
Him asking for more than he’s worth isn’t about respect; it’s about value and competition in a zero-sum game. The Wizards were probably rewarding John Wall for being loyal and all that, and look where that got them: perhaps the worst cap situation in the league with no end in sight. “Doing the right thing” won’t dig them out of what looks like a 4-year hole. Their fans won’t give a shit about loyalty when they’re the dregs of the league for multiple years.
See, I agree that you need to pay him, but not for the same reasons you do. I think they’re more competitive with him at an exorbitant salary than they’d be with some 2nd-round bum or veteran minimum signing. They stand to gain nothing but a bit of cap space if they let him walk.
Ellenson also fits Perry’s acquisition profile to date: recent first-round pick looking for a second chance. He’s not a lottery guy like Mudiay or Mario or Vonleh, but he’s the kind of guy Perry has targeted as buy-low options.
Really good find Bruno. The list of NBA Roc Nation clients is relatively small, and sure enough, they’re both on it.
To be clear, you think the difference between Tatum and RJ Barrett is greater than the difference between, say, Mitch Robinson and Marcus Smart? Bc I was pretty clear that Tatum > Barrett. All I said was Tatums isn’t >>>>>>> Barrett. Barrett is *really* highly rated and he benefits from the exact overratedness that you said inflates Tatum’s value.
@153
Mills was already back with the Knicks when they signed JR’s brother because of the CAA connection right? It might be something similar, although it probably means more that the Knicks are trying to appease Roc Nation instead of it being a sign of something more serious regarding Durant.
I just couldn’t find any basketball reasons to go after Ellenson, so yeah, it has got to be something to do with his agency. Bill Simmons also recently said in his podcast that everyone he’s been talking about thinks Durant is going to the Knicks. There might be some fire to the smoke after all.
Lol. Yeah, the Warriors elevated Klay, not the other way around. Sure.
Guys like Klay expose the folly of a slavish devotion to numbers based on pre-2004 basketball. It’s a pity he couldn’t have grabbed two more offensive rebounds a game instead of being one of the key components of a historically great defense.
tatum’s probably a hair bit better as a prospect than barrett was…. but they’re not really all that different value wise…. with barrett there’s more risk but higher upside just because of his scoring ability and volume….
Well in terms of KB poster prognostication, Barrett is a better prospect by far than Tatum. Most here hated Tatum and labeled him and Markkanen the most likely to bust. So there’s that.
Those of you who suggesting that Tobias Harris could be very helpful are underestimating what he will get paid. The last time there was this much cap space bidding for free agents a bunch of teams signed some really bad contracts that came back to haunt them. If Philly doesn’t re-sign him, I am sure someone will pay the max or close to the max for him. Would you still want him at that price?
I don’t really see any reason to hire Ellenson, but the principle of hiring guys to check out if they have potential is a good one. Even if he is just better than Hicks, that might make him our two way player next year, for example.
I’m really looking forward to the next game, as Frank and Mudiay will be back and the KP trade got rid of Hardaway, Burke and Lee. It will be interesting to see the guard rotations. Those guys have got to be feeling the heat from Smith Jr. and Allen, and to a degree, vice versa. I am also hoping that they release Jordan soon so that Mitch and Kornet get the best look possible. Maybe that’s why they picked up Ellenson…if they keep Jordan for the rest of the season, it makes less sense.