Knicks Morning News (2018.08.24)

  • [NY Newsday] On visit to Latvia, David Fizdale challenges Kristaps Porzingis to become the NBA MVP
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 3:06:00 PM)

    David Fizdale’s trip to Latvia this summer to visit with Knicks star Kristaps Porzingis appears to have been a successful one.

  • [NYDN] EXCLUSIVE: Councilman calls for canceling Trump Organization contracts with city over Michael Cohen plea deal
    (Friday, August 24, 2018 3:00:00 AM)

    A city councilman is re-upping calls for the city to cut ties with the Trump Organization following guilty pleas by President Trump’s personal lawyer.

    Councilman Mark Levine (D-Manhattan) said Michael Cohen’s plea — and his relationship to the Trump Organization — give the city the legal opening…

  • [NYDN] Questions arise about Boys Club board’s reasons for closing beloved Lower East Side youth recreation center
    (Friday, August 24, 2018 3:00:00 AM)

    Well, that’s awkward.

    The board and top executive of the Boys’ Club of New York has maintained that declining enrollment, expense and gentrification are the reasons for its plans to shut down and sell its storied Harriman Clubhouse at 287 E. 10th St. on the Lower East Side, which has served close…

  • [NYDN] ‘The Happytime Murders’ takes puppets to a new level of raunchiness
    (Friday, August 24, 2018 3:00:00 AM)

    These aren’t your children’s puppets.

    “The Happytime Murders,” the raunchy new comedy directed by Jim Henson’s son, features a cast of foul-mouthed puppets who have sex, use drugs, gamble and fire off weapons throughout the R-rated film.

    For puppeteer Drew Massey, it’s about time these cloth characters…

  • [NYDN] Loved ones celebrate Lyric McHenry’s ‘beautiful’ life at private memorial as source says ‘EJNYC’ reality TV star was dating mystery man from Bronx before her death
    (Friday, August 24, 2018 3:00:00 AM)

    Lyric McHenry’s loved ones still don’t have answers about her shocking Bronx death, but they held an ultra-private memorial Sunday to celebrate her “beautiful” life, the Daily News has learned.

    About a hundred close relatives and friends gathered at a private residence in West Hollywood and listened…

  • [NYDN] Trump, a trapped animal
    (Friday, August 24, 2018 1:05:00 AM)

    What is a poor President to do when his protective wall crumbles brick by brick, when the lawyer and tabloid publisher he paid to bury his secrets prepare to spill all, and his convicted campaign manager could crack at any moment?

    When the attorney general pledges to uphold the rule of law without…

  • [NYDN] Gotcha, Ms. Glen: The awful words of a de Blasio deputy mayor
    (Friday, August 24, 2018 1:05:00 AM)

    In an interview with Politico, the deputy mayor who oversees public housing defended Mayor de Blasio’s record — including failures so serious, a federal court ordered up unprecedented oversight — and, par for the course, viciously attacked reporters who dare expose the truth.

    Everything’s getting…

  • [NYDN] Keep your money: A dangerous idea from a police union
    (Friday, August 24, 2018 1:00:00 AM)

    The most dangerous idea of the week comes from the Sergeants Benevolent Association, which is giving a $500 cash reward to vigilantes — er, civilians — who jump in to aid a police officer arresting a suspect.

    So frustrated is SBA boss Ed Mullins by smartphone video of police encounters, he wants…

  • [NYDN] Readers sound off on Mollie Tibbetts, Hillary Clinton and bike lanes
    (Friday, August 24, 2018 12:00:00 AM)

    Brooklyn: The killing of 20-year-old Mollie Tibbetts is nothing short of a travesty, but I knew it wouldn’t take long for it to be politicized. Unfortunately, there’s always going to be crime and killings, some from citizens and some from non-citizens, but how many a year are killed by illegal…

  • [NYDN] Sex workers knock on doors for Democratic Socialist running for office in New York
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 11:40:00 PM)

    NEW YORK — When a 41-year-old escort who goes by the name Lana Marciano went from apartment to apartment in Brooklyn as part of a push for sex workers’ rights, she seemed pleased that no one slammed a door in her face.

    Marciano was among 35 sex workers and their allies who recently campaigned for…

  • [NYDN] Man who killed roommate, blew up body with pipe bomb, gets 30-year sentence
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 11:10:00 PM)

    HARTFORD, Conn. — A Connecticut man who fatally shot his roommate during a drug feud and then blew up the body with a pipe bomb to try to get rid of the evidence has been sentenced to 30 years in prison.

    Federal prosecutors say 43-year-old Christopher Miller was sentenced Wednesday for the July…

  • [NYDN] Sophisticated drug-smuggling tunnel found under old fried chicken joint in Arizona
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 10:35:00 PM)

    PHOENIX — Federal authorities have discovered a sophisticated drug-smuggling tunnel that went from a home in Mexico to an abandoned fast-food restaurant in Arizona.

    The Homeland Security Investigations division of the Department of Homeland Security says it got word in April that there was a tunnel…

  • [NYDN] Separate shootings in Brooklyn leave four wounded, sending stray bullet into state senator’s office
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 9:10:00 PM)

    Two shootings in Brooklyn left four people wounded and sent a bullet sailing into the door frame of a state senator’s packed campaign office Thursday night.

    The gunfire erupted at around 7:30 p.m., in front of the Cypress Hills houses on Euclid Ave., and on Rogers Ave. and Crown St. in Crown Heights….

  • [NYDN] Daily Horoscope — August 24, 2018
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 9:00:00 PM)

    Via Tarot Astrologers

    General Horoscope for August 24, 2018

    Bumping into our personal limitations might seem like a serious wake-up call today. The brilliant Aquarius Moon prompts us to remember a variety of unrealized dreams as if they are each possible. But the Moon’s opposition to Mercury and…

  • [NYDN] Trump tells Sessions he favors death penalty for fentanyl dealers
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 8:40:00 PM)

    WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump told Attorney General Jeff Sessions on Thursday that illegal dealers of the opioid fentanyl should be sentenced to death when convicted, according to two people familiar with the matter.

    Sessions met Trump at the White House to discuss overhauling prison sentences,…

  • [NYDN] Video shows Louisiana girl in tears as she’s told to leave school for wearing braids
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 7:50:00 PM)

    A black sixth-grade girl has been booted from her Louisiana Catholic school for wearing hair extensions.

    Video shows a teary-eyed Faith Fennidy exiting the New Orleans-area school with relatives as her braids are pulled back.

    Christ the King Middle School policy prohibits extensions, but many critics…

  • [NYDN] SEE IT: Prankster reprograms traffic sign to read ‘F–k Trump’ in Brooklyn
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 7:15:00 PM)

    This sign needs to watch its language!

    A reprogrammed traffic sign at the base of the Pulaski Bridge in Brooklyn had some choice words for the President, reading “F—k Trump” Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

    The sign drew gawkers to Greenpoint throughout the day, with several posting photos…

  • [NYDN] Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance considering criminal prosecution of Trump Organization for Stormy Daniels hush payment: report
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 7:00:00 PM)

    The Manhattan District Attorney’s office has begun exploring a criminal case against the Trump Organization and some of its executives stemming from Michael Cohen’s hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, according to a report.

    The case would revolve around how President Trump’s company…

  • [NYDN] Ireland Baldwin reveals past anorexia battle: ‘It took me a long time to find self love’
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 6:15:00 PM)

    Ireland Baldwin revealed her past struggles with anorexia in a poignant series of social media posts Thursday.

    The model, 22, first shared a photo of herself looking rail-thin with the caption, “Anorexia throwback.” She also shared a bikini shot that simply said, “NOPE.”

    Baldwin then explained…

  • [NYDN] Two officers suspended for a day after body cam video was leaked of the Denver mayor’s son berating cops during traffic stop
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 5:25:00 PM)

    Two Colorado cops lost a day’s pay after it was determined that they had violated department regulations by leaking a video of the Denver mayor’s son berating an officer during a traffic stop.

    “My dad’s the mayor, you f–king f—–t,” 22-year-old Jordan Hancock told Aurora, Colorado officer Paul…

  • [NYDN] Black man’s fatal stabbing ignites calls for hate crime investigation after video shows suspect using racist language
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 5:10:00 PM)

    PITTSBURGH — Activists have called for prosecutors to investigate the stabbing of a 24-year-old black man outside a Pittsburgh bar as a hate crime after video emerged of the white suspect using a racial epithet.

    Joden Rocco has been charged with homicide in the death of Dulane Cameron Jr. Police…

  • [NYDN] Diamond downer: Staten Island Little Leaguers knocked out of World Series tourney
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 5:10:00 PM)

    The Staten Island Little Leaguers traveled to Pennsylvania in hopes of a World Series crown. Instead, they leave as champions in gamesmanship and honor.

    The Mid-Islanders’ title hopes were dashed on the diamond Thursday as the Peachtree City, Ga., squad, representing the Southeast region, rallied…

  • [NYDN] State Department issues travel advisory for Mexico
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 5:05:00 PM)

    Perhaps it’s time to rethink those Mexico travel plans.

    The State Department issued a travel advisory Wednesday warning citizens headed abroad to beware of a select few Mexican states due to a recent uptick in crime.

    Colima, Guerrero, Michoacán, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, mostly states on the country’s…

  • [NYDN] Trump administration accused of telling migrants to leave the U.S. or never see their children again
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 4:35:00 PM)

    Federal authorities have been coercing migrants separated from their children into signing deportation orders even though they may have had eligible asylum claims, telling them they risk never seeing their kids again if they don’t leave the country immediately, according to a complaint filed Thursday.

  • [NYDN] Cops gun down vicious pit bull that mauled its female owner
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 4:20:00 PM)

    A pet pit bull was anything but man’s best friend when it brutally attacked its female owner to death.

    Cincinnati cops thought they were responding to a woman having a seizure; instead, they witnessed the gruesome sight of a dog standing over an unconscious woman, identified as Della Riley.

    As…

  • [NYDN] Tiger Woods off to slow start at The Northern Trust
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 4:20:00 PM)

    PARAMUS, N.J — Tiger Woods failed to carry any momentum he had from his last tournament into the start of the FedEx Cup playoffs.

    Neither did Sean O’Hair.

    That was only good news for one of them Thursday in The Northern Trust.

    O’Hair missed the cut last week and saw his FedEx Cup standing slip…

  • [SNY Knicks] David Fizdale has a plan to turn the Knicks into contenders
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 5:30:17 PM)

    The Knicks, yet again, have a plan to turn the franchise around, but this time it’s different.

  • [NYPost] Giddy David Fizdale lays out ‘awesome’ plan for Knicks’ rebirth
    (Thursday, August 23, 2018 10:17:19 AM)

    We should all be having what David Fizdale is having. In a supremely optimistic TV interview from a Manhattan kids clinic Wednesday, the new Knicks coach said he “clicked” with Kristaps Porzingis, calling him “excited” about the team’s direction, adding all Knicks fans should be excited about what is growing at the Garden. “It’s already…

  • 37 replies on “Knicks Morning News (2018.08.24)”

    I like that KD compared TB to IT. Except that TB is taller with a better wingspan and is a better passer. He is going to be a revelation from day 1. Get ready for lots of double-doubles!

    If Burke is playing great ball early on I would look to sell him to the Central Division, Minnesota, or Miami for a draft pick along with Courtney Lee. Those two could elevate the right team to the next round of the playoffs.

    I wonder if Toronto would take Lee and Burke in exchange for Danny Green. I think that could make them better than Boston at the deadline.

    On a totally unrelated note, I reread Jabari Parker’s comments yesterday from when he signed with the bulls, about how no-one cares about defence and that if a player is any good they should be able to score on him. It’s remarkable to me that not only fans but also players and some franchises (including our own) can just ignore or undervalue 50% of the game.

    I actually thought Parker might be a decent buy-low candidate this year but I hadn’t realised at the time just how bad his D was (led the league in getting blown by, acc to synergy) but also how terrible his attitude is. Lavine at the 2 and Parker at the 3 for a combined $40m – that’s an elite tanking strategy.

    Chicago won’t pick high in this draft. Markkanen and Carter Jr is an overwhelming amount of talent for a tank

    See, I think that if Burke is good and becomes a fan favorite at MSG, it would be better to lock him up on a mutually friendly deal. If he gets REAL good, then it makes pursuing Kyrie even less urgent. In other words, why trade a guy for cap relief and a middling draft pick when you’re unlikely to get a guy as good as Burke for the money? (that is, if he becomes REAL good, which is a very open question right now.)

    Between now and trading deadline, Perry & Fiz need to get assurances from at least two out of Kyrie, Butler, KD, Kawhi sweepstakes. If he doesn’t have them than its safe to assume they’re not coming. One is not enough so then we shouldn’t sign anyone. Its two or nothing. If this is the case DO NOT stretch, trade or play neither Noah or Lee. Continue developing and hope to draft Zion.

    But, if he has solid assurances that we will sign two of the four above players, then everyone else becomes cannon fodder including future protected 1st. Whatever it takes to dump, Timmy, Courtney and Noah. With two of the above four players, KP, mid-level and a bunch of minimum wage veterans’ chasing rings, – we will be in the EC finals 3 out of next 4 yrs.

    Why is its 2 or nothing?

    I don’t get the part of the fan base that acts like KP is 28 and has to be on a championship caliber team or else he’s gonna bolt. He’s 22. Why can’t we just lock him up with an extension and let him continue to grow as he grows with the young players around him? Where is this panic coming from?

    I would hate to see KP walk for nothing but I just don’t see it happening even if we don’t bring in Kyrie or whoever. He only walks if he hates Fiz and the other young players and believes we’re not moving forward. He’s not Melo (despite what some people think). He’s still very young.

    I’m not totally opposed to getting a big time free agent next year. I could be talked into getting 2 if we do it by not giving up picks and assetts. But we still haven’t even cleared the Lee, Lance and Noah contracts and people are ready to just cap us out again on 2 stars. I don’t get it at all. Lets grow, get into the playoffs then add the big time FA. After we resign KP, Frank will have 3 years left on his rookie deal, Knox will have 4, Mitchell will have 3 and our first round pick next summer will have 5 years.

    God I hope Perry has patience with this.

    https://twitter.com/carmeloanthony

    His background image, retold:

    “Gold medals aren’t NBA playoff success.
    They don’t make a 32-year-old play better.
    Or justify a 2nd max contract.
    They don’t silence the critics who said you could have waited to come to NY in free agency.
    Or supersede the hype from that single NCAA championship run fifteen years ago.
    But some things you do, your apparel company needs to exploit to remind people that you were pretty okay before you turned into an overpaid bricklayer.”

    @ 9 – Swift. With one FA, the ceiling is ~2nd round exit & 50 win seasons over the next 4yrs. Also, getting the 2nd FA to join is much, much easier than 1st.

    @ 11 – So once we get that one FA, we can’t expect any improvement from our young players including our most likely top 8 draft pick from next year we haven’t even drafted yet. We won’t be able to add any more FA via the mid level or mini mid level exceptions. Hardaway’s contract will last forever and we’ll never be able to replace him with a possibly better/cheaper player. We’ll never find another diamond in teh rough like Burke. A veteran player who is still pretty good won’t ever be able to join us for cheap bc we’ve got a young, good team. Got it.

    We haven’t even scratched the surface with Frank, Knox and Robinson. We haven’t even added our first round pick for 2019 or 2020 (or beyond!). But yup, we only add one free agent next summer and that is our absolute ceiling cause there’s zero chance Knox, Frank or any of our future first round picks won’t also turn into a superstar. You have a crystal ball obviously.

    Perry, Mills, and, Fizdale have all consistently talked about a 3 to 5 year plan. Why does everyone doubt them? I think signing Irving would be consistent with that. Tearing up the team to get Butler would be really stupid in my opinion. If it’s both or neither, I say neither.

    Perry, Mills, and, Fizdale have all consistently talked about a 3 to 5 year plan. Why does everyone doubt them? I think signing Irving would be consistent with that. Tearing up the team to get Butler would be really stupid in my opinion. If it’s both or neither, I say neither. Also, sign me up for some 50 win seasons, please.

    There really is no answer other than this is the Knicks, and there haven’t been a single front office in like 20 years of this franchise that did what they told us they’d be doing.

    There’s no reason to actively doubt them, but also no real reason to believe they’ll stick to the plan, or that the plan is good in the first place.

    I’ll always doubt a Knicks front office, specially when Mills is not really a new guy at the helm. I’m cautiously optimistic that they won’t fuck up too much as this offseason has been decent, but that’s pretty much it.

    We haven’t even scratched the surface with Frank, Knox and Robinson. We haven’t even added our first round pick for 2019 or 2020 (or beyond!). But yup, we only add one free agent next summer and that is our absolute ceiling cause there’s zero chance Knox, Frank or any of our future first round picks won’t also turn into a superstar.

    Giving Kyrie 35% and KP25% this summer guarantees that we wont have any space for a max baller again during next 4 yrs. Timmy can not be the third best player on a championship team. Knox is 19. Hasn’t played a minute yet. When was the last time the league had an “under 23 yr old home grown superstar” help lead their team to a championship? For those reasons, our likely ceiling is around 50 wins and 2nd round exit. It will be a lot of fun and much much better than what we had but it is what it is.

    More importantly, the romanticism and/or fantasy that one player plays their entire career with the team that drafted them needs to be addressed at some point.

    Stat guys can confirm or deny this but….I bet that at least 60% of All-Star players during past 5 years, have played for more than one team.

    We can always trade for our third max player, but if we’re going to blow up the team, one of them better be Giannis or AD.

    Other KP for marketing value reasons only, who on this 28 win roster is “untouchable”?

    If the kids look promising this year maybe you go for a FA this summer, if they don’t then don’t do it. You need some flexibility in your 3-5 year plans or you end up with mass starvation. The Knicks have had enough of that. We must be the ant, not the grasshopper.

    @21

    The plan is really, really easy. They actually have to try to fuck it up. Just play the kids a lot, 30+ mpg for Knox and Ntilikina and 20+ for Robinson if he’s ready, try to trade Lee if something comes up, keep Porzingis out until he’s 100% healthy and lose a lot. He comes back, they see how healthy and productive he is, then let Kanter, Baker etc expire, get a really high lottery pick and see what comes up in free agency.

    It’s one of the easiest seasons in a long time to manage as the Knicks front office. All they have to do is not get trigger happy, let Fizdale work and try to trade one single player who should have some value eventually.

    It’s one of the easiest seasons in a long time to manage as the Knicks front office.

    It sounds like the same plan they should have had going into every season since 2001. It’s never easy to be competent at MsG.

    It’s nice to speculate, but there is absolutely no real reason to believe that either Kyrie or Butler would come here over every other place that will offer them a max deal. If I had to bet right now, I’d bet that Kyrie stays with the Celts and Butler either stays with Minny or goes to a better situation like the Bucks or Lakers. So a lot of this talk about two max guys is fun but it just ain’t happening.

    I don’t think Kyrie Irving will be allowed to stay with the Celtics. I think Boston is going to covet Anthony Davis and want to preserve cap space, and that’s made easier by the emergence of Terry Rozier as a viable starting point guard at probably $12-14M AAV where Kyrie Irving probably starts around $27M AAV. Kyrie won’t be a Celtic past this season

    I don’t think Rozier is their vision of a true starting PG. Maybe Ainge and Boy Genius figure out how to keep masking his issues, but as long as he’s their starter they will have trouble competing with the best teams in the WC.

    I wonder if Irving will even be a C past Feb 1st. I could see them moving him for a big haul, and then rolling the dice on the postseason. They came within one game of the Finals, and with or without Irving, they’re still not ready to end the Warriors’ streak. With Davis, and the expected decline of the Dubs, they could be a frontrunner for a chip in 2020.

    LeBron’s dumb decision has really left a power vacuum in the East, but the West is still owned by GSW. Houston won’t contend this year, and no one’s really close to the 2017-18 Rockets among the rest of the field. If HOU couldn’t get it done (albeit without their 2nd-best player), I don’t see any other team having a chance in hell against a healthy Warriors squad.

    I don’t think Rozier is their vision of a true starting PG. Maybe Ainge and Boy Genius figure out how to keep masking his issues, but as long as he’s their starter they will have trouble competing with the best teams in the WC.

    He made a considerable stride last season, and he just hit his athletic prime. He may never be as good as Irving was last year, but the Celtics are so deep and good I don’t think they’d lose much by shedding $20M of salary for a drop of 20-30% in production from their starting PG position. Again, they took LeGoat to 7 without their two max players — that is an incredible feat.

    That makes zero sense. Davis is under contract until 2021. If they want him before that they would have to trade for him and then they only have to match his contract (which can be easily done with Horford’s 30 million deal plus whatever they give the Pelicans for him). If they want to sign him as a free agent it still doesn’t make sense to let Kyrie go, as they would have only Hayward, Tatum, Smart and Brown if they re-sign him as guaranteed contracts for 2020-21 and it’s much better to let go of either Smart or Brown.

    I’m 100% sure the only way Kyrie leaves is if he wants to or actively asks for a trade. Unless his health is completely screwed he’s a far superior player to Rozier in every way.

    Jowles, this is definitely an opportune time for the Celts in the east, but not as much as you suggest. I agree that they did well to take the Cavs to 7, but that was a truly terrible LeCavs team. Let’s not forget that the Bucks took the Celts to 7 games and Philly choked away a critical game 3. If Kawhi is healthy, the Bucks continue to develop, and the Sixers mature and maybe make a shrewd mid-season deal, I would question whether the Celts w/o Kyrie get past any of them.

    The Pelicans quite clearly like the current iteration of their team (for better or worse, FWIW I think there are good arguments on both sides) and I will be shocked if they even entertain the idea of moving Davis before his contract year. He seems happy there too for now. It’s an idea that isn’t even worth bandying about.

    For shits and giggles, let’s try to project the Knicks if they sign Kyrie Irving and no one else. I’m doing this on the spot so I actually don’t have any preconceived notion as I type this besides a guttural instinct that it feels like a bad idea. Anywho:

    -If we renounce every FA except Porzingis, Kornet, and Burke (you can renounce one or both of the latter two also if you want but doesn’t do much for you), we’ll have right around $34,800,000 assuming Noah is stretched and THJ and Lee remain.

    – We then sign Kyrie Irving to a contract that starts at $32.4m with the 5% annual increases that bring it up to 4/$139m. We still have around $3.3m in space before resigning our own guys. The roster as it stands assuming Porzingis, Burke, and Kornet are brought back:

    PGs: Irving, Frank, Burke
    SGs: Lee, THJ, Frank I guess, Dotson
    SFs: uh Knox kind of
    PFs: KP, Knox
    Cs: Robinson, KP, Kornet

    -It’s important to remember that a hopefully high draft pick is in there somewhere too, so some of the depth charts might not be as bad as they look. Let’s say we can get a somewhat useful wing with the remaining cap space. DeMarre Carroll maybe (other doubtful options are Bogdanovic, KCP, Darius Miller, Aminu).

    -We max KP, resign Burke for 2/$14m, and Kornet for 2/$6m. The team is:

    PGs: Kyrie, Frank, Burke
    SGs: THJ, Lee, Frank, Dotson
    SFs: Knox, Carroll
    PFs: KP, Knox
    Cs: Robinson, KP, Kornet

    + one draft pick. This is pretty much the team + minimum signings for 2019-2020 and 2020-2021. Some cap space opens up after that with Lee and THJ coming off.

    Continued…

    Let’s use VORP to try to project that team. I don’t think it’s infallible by any means but it’s likely the best offhand tool. For guys who we reasonably expect some improvement from, I’ll try to account for that. For more established players, I’ll go with their 2017-2018 figures despite possible age related decline:

    Kyrie: 4.0
    Burke: 1.0
    Frank: 2.0 (on the optimistic side)
    Lee: 0.0 (thanks, Phil!)
    THJ: -0.1 (thanks, Steve!)
    Dotson: 0.5
    Knox: 1.0 (who the hell knows)
    Carroll: 1.2
    KP: 3.0
    Robinson: 2.5
    Kornet: 0.5
    Contribution from minimum players, future draft picks, etc: 1.0

    We get 16.6 VORP, which translate to right around 45 wins above replacement. I honestly have no idea how many games a team of replacement level NBA players would be projected to win, but it can’t be all that high. Maybe 10?

    Conclusion: I dunno, seems like we’d be pushing a lot of chips to the center of the table, incurring a lot of risk, and projecting a lot of improvement all to max out at a team that still probably falls short of contender status. I leave this exercise still on #TeamWait.

    It’s hard to put lot of stock in your specific predictions, tnfh, or anyone else’s. I think that all bets are off regarding any future moves until we see what we have. Putting my general fanboi optimism aside, there are a bunch of guys with an enormous range between their upside and downside…starting with KP. But your putting TH2 as a possible -0.1 VORP makes a very good point….he may be the most important player to watch this year in determining whether to go for a max FA next year. If he plays like you suggest and is on board for 2 more years of dead weight, then why bother? OTOH, if he stays healthy and plays like a top 15 SG with some leadership ability, then you might move the argument on to the next player.

    It’s hard to put lot of stock in your specific predictions, tnfh, or anyone else’s. I think that all bets are off regarding any future moves until we see what we have. Putting my general fanboi optimism aside, there are a bunch of guys with an enormous range between their upside and downside…starting with KP. But your putting TH2 as a possible -0.1 VORP makes a very good point….he may be the most important player to watch this year in determining whether to go for a max FA next year. If he plays like you suggest and is on board for 2 more years of dead weight, then why bother? OTOH, if he stays healthy and plays like a top 15 SG with some leadership ability, then you might move the argument on to the next player.

    I agree with all of this, but I didn’t project THJ’s VORP–I wanted to use his exact figure from last season, and mistook it for his BPM. His actual VORP for last season, and the season before that in Atlanta, was 0.9. That brings the total number up to 17.6, and the team WAR up to 47.52. Not an insignificant difference, but not large enough to change my assessment of the situation.

    Basically, I do not think THJ becomes a markedly better player at age 26. If he does, then yes, things could change.

    By projection I was referring to your attempt to ascertain whether it is worth signing Kyrie based on what else we will have. I think that guys can improve at age 26, but you shouldn’t make any moves on the assumption that they will improve. That’s why I think TH2’s year is so important.

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