Knicks Morning News (2018.06.19)

There’s an important facet to any Grizz trade-up decision. I’m convinced that there’s an excellent chance Kyrie would sign with NYK in 2019. He wants to be “the man” on a big stage and a tandem of he and KP at MSG (not to mention Frank guarding the opposing 1) would be enticing to him. He left Bron so he’d walk out on Boston. I listened to the Ringer Kyrie interview and he was as non-committal to Celtics as possible. Wouldn’t you be happy if our starting lineup were Kyrie/Frank/THJ/KP/KOQ and #9 pick, 2019 pick, Burke, Dot, Troy, Kornet off the bench?

Would we have enough cap to sign Kyrie if we took Parsons contract? I ran the #’s on the Capulator. I’m presuming deal is THJ/Dot/Burke in scenario 1 and Lee/Baker/Dot/Burke in scenario 2.

Scenario 1: We would have about 16m in free cap if we re-sign KOQ for 8m/yr. The best option to free up enough cap would be to try clear Courtney from the books (e.g., offer the #36 pick to try to get some team to take him into their cap or try to trade him for a player whose contract expires next summer) LINK TO CAPULATOR RESULTS

Scenario 2: We would only have about 10m in free cap if Grizz want Lee instead of Timmy. Not possible to sign Kyrie unless you’re able to to make some kind of THJ trade and not re-sign KOQ. If you find a team to take THJ into their free cap, you might be able to keep KOQ.

There is just no reason to re-sign KOQ at anything above a very low-money deal. Yes he had a good season. Yes he’s a fun player. Yes he’s maybe “worth” $8-10 mil AAV in a vaccum.

But this isn’t a vacuum. The Knicks have three centers on the roster already. If Porzingis is healthy, he should be getting most of his minutes at center. If he’s not healthy, we should be tanking anyway, not paying veteran role players like KOQ to win meaningless games for us.

This upcoming season will be KOQ’s age 28 season. We’re not going to be anything close to a contender for AT LEAST the next two years, meaning his age 30 season would be the first one where veteran role players become important. He’ll almost certainly be in decline by then. He’s not a guy who keeps himself in tremendous shape. He finally got himself in good shape this year and had a strong season, but he also played only 18 mpg — a career high.

By the time we need a good backup center, which he is, there will be plenty of other options. Traditional bigs are flooding the market, and the top of the 2018 draft is going to inject a bunch more centers. Guys like Gortat and Vucevic and Dedmon and Monroe and the Lopezes are going to be available for cheap the next couple of years.

Rebuilding teams should not be blowing their cap space on low-ceiling vets that they don’t need. Offer KOQ $5m AAV, and if he declines, give him a hug and send him off to sign with a team that actually needs him.

Yeah, agree on Kyle sadly. It will be interesting to see how Kanter performs this year with a defensive coach (I’m assuming he opts in). If he can improve even just a little, we could resign him at a low price to back up KP.
It really does make taking Carter seem like a waste, as much as I like him.
Well, it seems as if at least ONE major trade will happen in the top 5 this year… Should be an interesting draft.

Woj is saying Orlando is between Trae and Sexton, and he thinks they’ll go Sexton. Porter is making out like he has a high promise.

Those two moving parts are huge.

If the top five is ayton, Doncic, Bagley, Bamba and JJJ in some order and Orlando takes Sexton, one of Porter, Carter and Trae is there for us.

If Porter goes top5, does Orlando jack the pg plan and take whoever drops? Then we’re probably back on the obvious 8 being gone before us.

@1
1. I disagree on JJJ, and less so on Ayton. More generally, it depends on what you’d have to give up (obviously a lot for Ayton at #1)
2. Absolutely not. The reasonable chance of drafting a great player is more valuable than having a good player in the fold. Maybe for the #36 pick and a young player (Dotson?) but that’s it.
3. Yes, unless Trae or Porter drop, in which case I’d draft them unless I was absolutely sold that Walker (or Knox) was a stud.
4. I don’t like Carter, so no. Knox? Very tough call, I’d rather trade down for him but if he’s the BPA in Perry’s mind, fine.

We’re not trying to win right now, but that doesn’t mean we’re not trying to win the year after that and the year after that. Given how little cap space is out there this summer, this summer is actually a good time to selectively give out FA $ and get guys on good contracts. Kanter ideally will be gone this summer, and if not hopefully will be gone the summer after that. Who else do we have at center? Luke Kornet?
(I like Kornet actually, but to think that he’s ready for actual big NBA minutes seems a bit overoptimistic).

KOQ is only 28 now. If he signs a 3 year contract we would have him through his age 31 season. I don’t imagine he will regress much during that contract. And he’s actually a really good player! Like a top 20-25 center by RPM, a +3.5 and +4.5 BPM over the last 2 seasons, and a 0.150+ WS/48 guy. If you can get a guy like that for $6MM/year I think you should do it.

He’s better than Vucevic who is (by all reports since I don’t watch Orlando at all) a total sieve on defense – Vucevic will also likely make a lot more money than KOQ. Gortat is like 50 (60?). The Lopezes are literal dinosaurs (and not like T-Rex, more like brontosauruses in a league of velociraptors) who are 2 years older than KOQ.

We’re not trying to win right now, but that doesn’t mean we’re not trying to win the year after that and the year after that. Given how little cap space is out there this summer, this summer is actually a good time to selectively give out FA $ and get guys on good contracts. Kanter ideally will be gone this summer, and if not hopefully will be gone the summer after that. Who else do we have at center? Luke Kornet?
(I like Kornet actually, but to think that he’s ready for actual big NBA minutes seems a bit overoptimistic).

KOQ is only 28 now. If he signs a 3 year contract we would have him through his age 31 season. I don’t imagine he will regress much during that contract. And he’s actually a really good player! Like a top 20-25 center by RPM, a +3.5 and +4.5 BPM over the last 2 seasons, and a 0.150+ WS/48 guy. If you can get a guy like that for $6MM/year I think you should do it.

Agree with all this. Kyle O’Quinn is good and any time you can sign a good player for less than his market value, it’s probably a good idea. It’s entirely conceivable that we’re good in 2020/21 and we’d have a useful center making $7mm in the last year of his deal.

There’s a lot to like about Ayton-he’s huge, he’s mobile, he scored efficiently at good volume, he dominated the glass at both ends, he passes well for a big man, he played big minutes, he can shoot and he’s a better shot blocker than people seem to think (he’s okay, he’s not terrible).

Weird how GSW played Zaza, Bell, Looney, West, McGee about 5000 minutes? And they cut Omri so they could keep another big for the playoffs? And that they had any interest KOQ at the deadline?

How about Knicks just focus on getting productive players? If they had KP/KOQ/Carter, that could be 96 minutes of above average production at the 4/5. You need guys who are able to set picks and I’m not sure KP will ever be able to do that effectively. I’m not sure KP’s body and stamina would hold up playing the 5 for more than a brief period. And he may need 3 more years before he’s ready to play center.

KOQ is a starting level center. The stats and the eye test support that. He’s much better than those guys you mentioned not just a bit better. His bpm over their entire careers is at least twice as high as all of them. And the gap is even greater looking at last season:
LINK TO LAST SEASON STATS: BPM of 4.5 compared to .5, .3, .8, 2.7

What about CLE signing and trading LBJ to OKC for Carmelo?

LeBron, Westbrook, Adams + shooters / defenders…?

CLE goes in full tank mode. Melo gets as many shots as he wants and goes away in a year…

What do you guys think?

To join the chorus, I think we should resign KOQ even if that hurts our short term tanking position. I really think he’s in the David West mold where he’ll be able to be an effective player well into his 30s because his game is not at all predicated on athleticism. Having him on this team for the next 3-8 years could only be a good thing, assuming the price is right.

What about CLE signing and trading LBJ to OKC for Carmelo?

LeBron and Melo are big friends, LBJ wouldn’t do that.

I think there’s NO CHANCE AT ALL that Trae falls to the Knicks. If he’s available at 8, Cleveland will pick him. If they lose James, they have their playmaker for the future; if he stays, they add a much necessary secondary ballhandler. It will be like that unless someone with more upside, like Bamba (or even MPJ), is there for the get.

According to experts, its the deepest draft since probably 2003 and there could be 2 hall of fame players in 1-5 and another all-star after that. If this holds to be true, (2 out of 5 – or 40% odds) than this is the time to take a chance, move up and swing for fences.

At number 9, the odds of picking an all-star are probably 10% or less this year. That ~30% spread risk price is dirt cheap, if all we have to do is pay Chandler $49M to come off the bench for two years (irrelevant to fans – other people’s money) and give up a ~7% shot (protected top 5 on a much weaker draft) next year.

I’d send Kanter, a fill in, cash, #9, and top 5 protected next year. In two years, we should have two-all stars, 6th man of the year in THjr, and a TON of cap space. Top free agents will be kicking Perry’s door down.

Re: Sexton – listening to Givony/Schmitz/Sam Vecenie etc. — they all really like him. Weaknesses are tunnel vision at times but they love his competitive nature and physical traits.

I just think that unless you can get a super high ceiling guy like Trae Young, the best play is to see what Frank can do as the starting PG. If he can be average on offense, that makes so many problems go away including our glut at the SG position, as well as finally having a great perimeter defender for once. If he really has grown and is 6’6″ with prob +7 wingspan by report, he’ll be infinitely switchable in addition to being great on the ball.

@7

You hit the nail on why I’m scared about Knox. For someone with such athleticism, every highlight I’ve seen of him is him driving awkwardly and finishing with a weak one handed floater in traffic that’s getting swatted to oblivion in the NBA. I just can’t see anything on the numbers or the tape I’ve watched that gives me hope, maybe I’m completely wrong but still.

I’m all for re-signing KOQ and even though I’m open to the possibility of pursuing Kyrie Irving eventually if his knees don’t turn into noodles, I don’t think a chance at a free agent in 2019 should stop us from simply making the correct move in re-signing O’Quinn for a decent contract. It’s been shown for a while that it is possible to dump salary quickly if a team really wants it, so let’s not make a dumb decision to keep an option that might not even open up in the future. If we let guys like KOQ go to have a chance at Kyrie then Kyrie turns around and goes somewhere else, it’s another LBJ – Amare scenario all over again.

If you were KOQ and you knew gs wanted you would you re sign with the knicks?

I feel like GS would prefer Amir Johnson, who’s a little more versatile and experienced (50 career playoff games vs 0 career playoff games) than KOQ for what would probably be comparable dollars.

Miles Bridges has had very little buzz during this predraft process. I wonder whether it’s because he has a promise, or whether he just hasn’t been great. An article from SI said he might drop all the way out of the lottery.

Knox, on the other hand, has had tons of buzz. If we really think he’s the pick, I don’t think trading down is a good idea – might be gone.

I would just really find it funny if in 5 years those 2 are the best from this class

They won’t be. Not even close. I mean, no chance. Zip.

If Mikal Bridges is successful in the NBA it will be because his offense carries him. People love Mikal Bridges’ stats, and there’s a lot to like about them, but I have not been afraid to document my reservations about him:

1) He more of a 3-2 than a 3-4 considering his height/weight combination, and that’s tough because he doesn’t handle the ball well enough to spend significant time at the two. He also doesn’t have the quickness to keep up with guards defensively.

2) Despite elite shooting stats his form is odd and I wonder whether or not he will be able to shoot at the same volume against NBA defenders. Iman Shumpert is a replacement level player and he would give Bridges fits all night.

3) He is not a lockdown defender in traditional terms. He’s great in ball denial situations, he’ll make plays in team defense, but he’s not going to be a guy who muscles up and flat out stops you like a Marcus Smart, Kawhi Leonard, or even a Frank Ntilikina. Bridges just doesn’t have the lateral quickness to get to a spot before a guy and that means foul trouble in the NBA.

4) He cannot create his own offense, and while that won’t show up in the regular season, it will damn sure show up when playoff teams cut off Porzingis and force Mikal Bridges to beat them off the dribble.

Now, there’s a chance Mikal Bridges is an elite 3 point shooter and excellent team defender. The guy might be the next Reggie Miller, and I’d love to have that kind of a talent in today’s league. I just don’t watch his film and see a guy that I’m willing to jump out to window with, and I’ve studied him more than every other prospect in the draft.

Gun to my head he’s the pick at 9, but I would be looking long and hard at Kevin Knox.

Today, I’d mock the draft to look like this:

1) Ayton
2) Bagley
3) Bamba
4) Doncic
5) Jackson Jr
6) Young
7) Porter Jr
8) Carter Jr
9) Knox
10)Your Favorite Bridges
11) The other one
12) Lonnie Walker
13) Kevin Knox
14) Zhaire Smith

@40
Sexton falling totally out of the top 14? I know that Atlanta is mocked to go with Bamba at 4, but will they really pass on Doncic? They are silly if they do.

Another thing about the Knicks…if they do covet and end up taking Knox, they need to fix the leak. Stuff like that should not get out. If the Knox stuff is just subterfuge or a bad read by a beat writer, then okay.

@37 – he was using minutes, not points, to be fair…

I can’t see Trae and Porter getting past Chicago and Cleveland unless something absurd happens like Mikal or Sexton goes at 5 or 6. It seems likely that we could be forced into taking Carter or else one of the other guys we’re linked to. I’d still probably take Carter and work out the rest later. Maybe KP will come back and be terrible? Maybe he will be fine? Maybe Carter will lose 20 lbs and will guard the perimeter better than anyone? It’s hard to say. That’s why I think you have to go BPA at 9 and that, to me, is Carter.

@47 LOL I didn’t see that. Knox at #9 and then Sexton at 12, Walker at 13.

Did you know Boston has no salaries between $6m and $20m? Rookie scale deals and all stars. That’s what they have.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day, am I right guys?

@51

But those were actually valuable players. Is O’Quinn as valuable? I just don’t see the league perceiving his value the way we do.

Even then, Boston essentially traded away Bradley for Morris who’s a fringe player, then had to package both IT and Crowder, who were at an all time value coming off exceptional seasons with the Nets pick to get Kyrie.

I like O’Quinn and would like to see him remain a Knick simply because I don’t trust the front office to rebuild anyway, so it’s better to keep the good player. But in a vacuum, teams like the Knicks should not be keeping guys like O’Quinn for 8-10 million a year.

Are you really using points per game to make your argument?

rama, please read what I wrote. I said mpg, not ppg.

DX/ESPN’s most recent mock has us taking Knox over Trae Young.
That feels like a mistake.

hard to know given all the buzz Knox has gotten. Certainly physical attributes for Knox are better but man, I would be really tempted to draft Trae Young.

After watching the playoffs and finals I think its pretty clear that you need players that can target mismatches or defend multiple positions. Obviously you want guys that can do both but those are the true unicorns maybe only 7 or 8 guys in the league that can do that.

That’s why people are enamored with the Bagleys, Konxes and MPJs. With the way teams are playing defense and switching you need guys who can punish the hills, hardens, currys and irvings at the highest levels of basketball.

Theoretically the guys above would be able to switch on those counterparts also mentioned and not get destroyed…. Maybe none of them can score efficiently enough and/or defend adequately enough to matter but that’s where your scouts come in and pick.

Taking Bagley and Ayton over Doncic is pretty dumb. I guess we’ll find out if Atlanta’s front office is competent.

Latest news at the top of the draft:

– Bagley over Doncic at 2 is for real.
– Bamba told Memphis not to draft him.
-MPjr’s floor is Cleveland

Source(s)?

Ayton and Bagley over Doncic isn’t dumb at all. I know, Doncic is the greatest European prospect of all time and his accolades trump anything anyone has done before him, but the fact of the matter is he does not present a team with the opportunity to physically dominate the opposing line up. DeAndre Ayton is a more athletic version of Karl Anthony Towns, and I’d take the actual Karl Towns over Doncic. Bagley and Ayton were 20 and 10 players in Division 1 college basketball as freshmen, posted great efficiency numbers, have the ability to shoot the three, and are athletic specimens. If Ayton is Towns 2.0, Bagley is Bosh 2.0, and Doncic is Harden, was it really stupid to take Bagley and Ayton over Doncic?

Doncic is an amazing prospect, but I see both sides of the coin. If I were picking first there’s no way I take Doncic over Ayton, but I’d take Doncic over Bagley. You just cannot teach 7’1” 250 and like zero percent body fat. Ayton will be one of the 5 best athletes in the league until he’s 30.

@62 my phone’s Bleacher Report app. ESPN is reporting Bagley over Doncic, Cleveland.com is reporting Porter Jr won’t get below 8, and ESPN is also reporting the Bamba story.

Ayton is wayyyyyy worse a prospect than Towns was. And Doncic is a superior prospect to Towns. No objective evaluation of Ayton’s play makes a compelling case for him over Doncic–the only justification is wishcasting about “theoretical upside”. It’s not even close. “Physical domination” matters less than it ever did in the NBA, and has always mattered less than actual basketball skills like dribbling, passing, shooting, and rebounding, all of which Doncic can do without negatively impacting your defense to the degree that Ayton or Bagley would.

Ayton is a LaMarcus Aldridge that can jump, but can’t play any D.

For example, did you know that the #9 pick has produced the 3rd most number of all star players since the draft went to its modern format in 1989?

Pick#1 = 17
Pick#3 = 15
Pick#9 = 11
Pick#2 = 9
Pick #5 = 9

Outside of the #1 pick, there is historically very little difference between picking anywhere in the top ten when it comes to producing all stars, Hall is famers, useful role players, or total duds.

I dunno, that sure seems to suggest the standard “Best to be picking in the top five” canard. When five of the top six results are from the top five, it sure seems legit to say that picking in the top five is very important.

Ayton is going #1 because:
1. He played at Arizona, and the Suns are in Phoenix
2 .The Suns are dumb

ESPN (Givony) has Young falling to 12! He has SGA and Sexton going ahead of him (to Cleveland and Charlotte), and us taking Knox.

FWIW, he’s one of those guys whose mocks are definitely based on what he’s hearing, not what he thinks should happen.

Oakman, I read too quickly. My apologies.

The point isn’t to get draft picks. It’s to get players who outperform their contracts.

This, however, is still the point. That’s the only way to build a successful team. It’s a combination of factors, and signing players who aren’t valued properly is one of them.

Also, Frank is on a rookie deal, so will almost certainly play up to his contract (and Dotson, too, second round money). Lee, FWIW, generally plays up to his contract – average in every way. We need to get rid of him, since he adds wins with no upside and no future. KOQ will at least still be what he is in 2 years, when it may help (if we don’t pick Knox).

@70

The sample sizes are too small to conclude much other than picking higher is better than picking lower but most people overestimate the actual advantage. Some teams “may” have more ability, but those samples are too small also.

Since when does DeAndre Ayton need to develop the basics? He was unstoppable this season in the PAC 12. He already has post moves, he already has a jumper from the 3 point line and down, he’s already a beast on the glass, he can shoot free throws, he blocks 2.3 shots per 40 which ain’t great but it’s respectable, and he has a grown man’s body. He was the PAC-12 Player of the Year and got paid $100K to play for the University of Arizona. I think he’s a can’t miss prospect.

When it comes to Ayton and Doncic, I think you’re looking at two surefire franchise cornerstone types. I have more questions about Bagley, Bamba, Trae Young, Jaren Jackson Jr and Michael Porter Jr, but those guys all have high ceilings but don’t come with the same level of safety that Ayton and Doncic provide. Ayton is already a guy you give the ball and just get out of the way, and doesn’t really have the same off court red flags that a guy like Mike Beasley, the GOAT sports reference page, come with. I’d pick Ayton and sleep well knowing I’m not getting fired.

The sample sizes are too small to conclude much other than picking higher is better than picking lower but most people overestimate the actual advantage. Some teams “may” have more ability, but those samples are too small also.

I’m pretty sure you could expand it to “entire NBA Draft history” and the numbers would likely remain generally the same – the vast majority of the top talent comes at the top of the draft (counting territorial picks as “top of the draft,” of course), which also just makes logical sense, right?

I don’t have the data, but you’d certainly see the trend

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This argument is simply not very useful because it doesn’t account for the team making the picks. A guy who went 9th in a specific draft could have gone 5th or 7th if the draft order was different. Saying x players drafted 9th eventually went on to be all stars means nothing because those positions are not set in stone, it’s many front offices making decisions that are frankly impossible to account for statistically unless we had access to every team big board every year. It paints a somewhat general picture that talent is available past the absolute top picks but the decision process involved is so inaccessible for analysis that it matters very little to understand how future drafts will work out.

If David Kahn was rational or if a better managed team was in the same position Curry would have been drafted 5th, for example, he was never the 7th highest rated player in that particular draft. Or he could have dropped even more if another team picked instead of Golden State. How can we account for stupidity or shrewdness amongst front offices?

I love Doncic, but 9 and an unprotected first in a year where we know for certain we’ll suck ass? As in, potentially 9, next year’s 1, and take on Parsons? If we offered that the Grizz should bite our arm off.

I don’t think that the Knicks should be giving up unprotected first rounders for anyone outside of, well, you know, like Lebron or Kevin Durant. Now, loose protections on the 2019, I can live with.

Isn’t that somewhat illogical? If you believe there’s a 75% chance Doncic will be an NBA all-star wouldn’t the #9 pick plus a #5 pick next year in a projected weak draft be getting him cheap?

@Silky A few days ago when I was touting JJJ’s BPM you mentioned that Doncic’s BPM would be astronomical. Someone on the ABPR site calculated it at 7.63 and compared it to other Euroleague players. Even if you were to adjust for Euroleague being stronger than NCAA that doesn’t seem so high to me (JJJ at 15.4 bpm). Comments since you’re into this stuff? LINK

Givony was on the Lowe podcast and said the that Young had a poor workout with the Knicks and he thought they’d pick Sexton over Young but that Knox was probably going to be the choice. He also described Knox as “oozing with talent” for whatever that’s worth.

If you can’t see the difference between Jahlil Okafor and DeAndre Ayton then there is nothing to tell you bro.

@90 – I guess my issues are a) future drafts often seem weaker until they get closer, b) we’re going to be really bad so if unprotected it could definitely be a better pick than 5, and c) I think 75% is on the high side if we mean genuine multi-year all star.

But people on this site are bringing me round to maybe accepting top-5 protected being included (in a deal, by the way, that I think has no chance of happening). I’d prefer top 10, dropping to top 5 the next year.

Yeah, I’d be willing to do loose protections, like top 5.

@90

Can you send me the link to the thread? It’s cool stuff and I’ll respond more fully soon. To clarify though I’m not anti JJJr. Hes probably my 3rd favorite prospect in the draft, depending on how I feel about Trae Young that day.

Serious question: how much precedent is there for players like Knox and Walker succeeding? More specifically, how many players that statistically demonstrate exactly zero and plus skills in college go on to be above average NBA players?

I’m aware it has happened, but it sure does seem so god damn rare that it’d be insane for a talent strapped franchise to bet on it with a lottery pick.

Well, they sucked last year and still only picked #9 in this draft, so I think there are decent odds of getting the pick next year, especially because this team never tanks. Then, I’m sure whatever protections placed on it would dissipate over time, so you’d get the pick eventually (Top 5 in 2019, then #1 protected in 2020, no protection in 2021, etc.)

That said, sure, I agree that a Top 10 Protected Knick pick would not be desirable for that very reason. A Top 5 Protected one, though, could have real value. Do you really see this team, if they were, say, #7, intentionally losing games to get into the Top 5 so they wouldn’t have to convey the pick? This is the Knicks. That would be seen as, like, bad form or something like that.

I don’t know why ANY team would make a pick based on ONE or maybe TWO workouts in an empty gym instead of looking at film from 30-plus games and loads of statistics, but I guess I don’t really “know” players like these “professionals” do dur doe.

But that’s not Kevin Knox, so, huh?

Kanter wants a long term contract:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2781935-knicks-news-enes-kanter-seeks-long-term-contract-to-feel-more-secure

If Kanter wants to opt out of his $19m expiring contract for a long term deal, I’ll happily offer him 4 years, $16m. That’s $16m total, not annual. I’ll give you a few minutes to think it over, Enes.

@95 – I know the guy who put that clip up! he’s a real class act #tkdfutda

The Sixers could seek to trade up a notch for the 18-year-old and offer the Knicks a piece of their slew of draft picks (they have six 2018 picks — No. 26 and four in the second round).

Alex Rucker, the Sixers’ director of analytics and strategy, said he’s unsure Knox will be on the board.

“He’s a very talented modern NBA wing, 6-9, fluid, shot the ball great,’’ Rucker said. “In the modern game, Kevin can play two, three positions (2, 3, 4).”

If this is all an elaborate smokescreen to get Philly to give up an additional asset(s) to guarantee they get the guy they have the hots for that would be an impressive achievement for a Knicks front office.

Can you send me the link to the thread? It’s cool stuff and I’ll respond more fully soon. To clarify though I’m not anti JJJr. Hes probably my 3rd favorite prospect in the draft, depending on how I feel about Trae Young that day.

LINK TO THREAD

Keep in mind that the first spreadsheet was created in January and many of the comments in the thread I believe are referring to the BPM in the first part of the season when Doncic’s stats were better. The author updated the spreadsheet throughout the season. The link I’ve provided in my post #90 is to the spreadsheet at the end of their regular season. Here are the BPMs of some former NBA players on the spreadsheet who apparently played in the Euroleague this year:
– Doncic 7.63
– Nick Calathes 6.3
– Gustavo Ayon 5.64
– Edy Taveras 4.45
– Jan Vesely 3.45
– Nando de Colo 3.08
– Alexey Shved 3.00

My initial reaction is that his BPM is fine but not so strong as I would have figured compared to some of those former NBA players. And I’m not anti-Doncic, he’s #2 on my board. I’m just interested in ways to translate Euroleague performance to NBA and NCAA. I know Pelton’s got some sort of system but I’m not sure what he does.

If Kanter would opt out today, would the Knicks be under the cap? If so, they might be able to “buy” Washington’s #15 pick or Denver’s 14.

I’ll say it again, and I’m not even a huge Trae Young fun. But if he’s there at #9, they need to roll the dice and take him. Frank to the two, and let’s see what happens. Trey’s shooting, handle, and court vision are worth the look.

Also, I’d much rather the Knicks take Sexton than Knox if they don’t want to go wing. I’d rather gamble on Sexton learning to shoot than Knox learning to hustle, defend and rebound in real basketball games.

if Kanter opts out, his contract still runs through 6/30, no?

Kevin Knox really does ooze, it seems. Here’s his writeup on HoopsHype:

Knox has the talent to go in the mid-lotto, but had a miserable pro day and has left a number of teams scratching their heads about his focus and toughness. He’s oozing potential as a modern-day 4

He’s mocked 10 there: http://knickerblogger.net/knicks-morning-news-2018-06-19/#comment-622675

I messed up the earlier link:

https://hoopshype.com/2018/06/19/nba-mock-draft-2018/

Sorry…

define: Knickerblogger

CJ,

I’m not sure what that means, but if the idea was to suggest I should have the data, I never bothered to analyze it myself. I’ve only seen what others have published. The reason is, as I suggested, the draft itself has changed. The probability of making the correct choice is lower when you are selecting 19 year old players than when you are selecting 22 year old players because you have more games/data to examine and you don’t have to project as much development at 22. On the flip side, our understanding of the game has improved, there are more stats, and we go through a lot more analysis of these young players now than we used to. No set of data controls well for all those changes and any attempt to do so would reduce the sample size further. That all takes me back to my original conclusion. There’s no doubt picking higher is better than picking lower. That makes obvious intuitive sense and is supported by general data. However, most people wildly overestimate the advantage.

A friend of mine just made a pretty good point to me after looking at Mikal Bridges’s and Damyean Dotson’s college stats.

They are both SG/SF types that are known for defense and knocking down 3s. They both need some work creating off the dribble . They are a similar size and they are not that far apart in age given that Dotson has already played 1 year in the NBA. One could argue that if we draft Bridges we are getting a very similar player even if Mikal is a bit better at the same age. His point was that if the Knicks are reasonably high on Dotson becoming a solid 3 and D SG/SF, maybe it makes more sense to draft Knox who is more of a SF/PF with more of a scoring upside if we have them rated similarly.

KP’s interview with Phil weighed heavy in his decision to pick him.

And his exit interview with him weighed heavy in his decision to try to trade him for Devin Booker.

(Perhaps too much emphasis is put on “interviews” when the job you’re hiring for is nothing more than putting balls through 10 foot hoop?)

if Kanter opts out, his contract still runs through 6/30, no?

Correct, Kanter’s space can’t be cleared until after July 1. And he can’t be traded until he opts in. So he’s a moot asset going into this draft.

Jackson’s block numbers were stellar, and I think that’s the main reason his DBPM grades out as flat out amazing as opposed to very good.

Yes but DBPM doesn’t reflect his ability to switch and guard 1-5 so imo his DBPM isn’t inflated. His relatively low defensive rebounding is because he played the 4 next to a legit 5. His offensive rebounding, however, was not good at all and he fouled too much.

He has a pretty slow release and can’t get it off in space

Actually Schmitz and Duncan both thought he gets the ball off fast. Schmitz said he’s been draining those shots since high school and he’ll be a PnPop threat in the pros. Duncan expressed some concern that he starts his shot from too low.

Whereas Jackson can’t really put the ball on the floor or playmake at this stage,

He’s not that bad at all when he puts the ball on the floor, his turnovers did not occur at those times. But his playmaking is why he’s slated to go after Ayton, Doncic and Bags. Here’s where I differ from just about everybody. I look at the guy and see a very agile, mobile, coordinated and high IQ player which I believe will eventually translate to a very versatile NBA offensive player. It’s critical to remember he played the whole season as an 18yo or a high school senior. As I mentioned, Schmitz thinks he’ll be able to PnPop in NBA. They don’t execute many PnR’s in college but I believe he’ll be at the level right below Deandre on the dive. He’s already pretty good at attacking closeouts. He’s got the jump hook and probably could develop a few more post moves. And he’s a decent passer. So he’ll never be Kareem or Shaq in terms of shot creation but I think in time he’ll be versatile enough that he’ll be a force on both offense and defense. Duncan thinks his ceiling is Horford but I think it’s Garnett.

And you might say “yeah, but its only one exception” to which I would say “yes, but finding that exception is how you knock a draft pick out of the park.”

No, reaching for that exception is how to fuck up a draft pick.

You don’t need to be the genius that found a guy at 9 who everyone thought was only the 18th best player in the draft. Just keep it simple and take the best player. That’s how you knock roster construction out of the park.

I wouldn’t be thrilled with the Knicks picking Sexton, but on the bright side it would at least show that the FO is ready to move on from Mudiay. Well, probably.

But, are these guys already willing to admit that the Mudiay deal was a mistake, and that they basically lit a second round pick on fire? Didn’t Fizdale say that the Knicks were going to fix him?

Yes, but he wants a long term contract. So couldn’t we do a sign and trade where we give him a contract he likes and trade him someplace right afterwards?

No, at least not before July 1st. (ie, not for 2018 draft picks or cap space to acquire 2018 draft picks)

@137

Maybe it’s you who needs to open your eyes to some film. Sports reference is awesome though

@133 – the stats are pretty important… but they’re absolutely not the only thing… but if you’re talking about the odds of drafting a real difference maker…. they almost always… like 85%…. at minimum pass certain benchmarks in each statistical category….

now that doesn’t guarantee that they’ll be good… there are plenty of guys who did incredibly well in college and still failed or disappointed … ie. michael beasley…. but if you wanna draft stephen curry or kevin durant or anthony davis… or ben simmons or kawhi leonard or jimmy butler or draymond green…. then you AT LEAST need to perform up to a certain level by a certain age…

occasionally you get someone like deandre jordan or russell westbrook…. who really had meh numbers…. but were put into a not so ideal situations… in their case the production didn’t accurately reflect their talent level….

but those are rare exceptions…. which is why you generally want to start looking at their production first and then start filtering guys from there…. looking at guys who didn’t produce is generally a losing proposition….

@142 – i’m pretty sure you haven’t actually watched ayton aside from ‘film’ on youtube or else you probably would’ve noticed how a team like buffalo pretended ayton wasn’t actually there…

i probably watch more college ball than most here.. .and certainly more than the folks who just decide to pay attention to the draft by watching youtube for the last month or so and call themselves experts…. so i wouldn’t assume anything….

and what was so different in the other games?

you must love kanter….

Ayton had a gravity to him this season where defenses collapsed on him off the catch, and it still didn’t matter most times. He could beat centers off the dribble and if they gave him space it’s a mid range jumper. He would kill teams on the offensive glass, you could throw the ball up to him in a double team and he would still come down with it and get you a bucket. There was nothing teams could do with him and that is why he scored 20 points a night on a .650 TS%.

This discussion is largely irrelevant to the Knicks, though. Ayton will be taken 1st overall and he’ll put up big numbers from Day 1 unless he’s injured. You can bet on a freak athlete like Ayton all you want.

By the way, RealGM notes that good teams love Luka Doncic but bad teams hate him.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/250232/Good-Teams-Love-Luka-Doncic-Bad-Teams-Hate-Him

Phoenix and Sacramento are clearly bad teams. But what about Atlanta and Memphis, or the Knicks for that matter.

Bucks will trade their pick for a veteran wing, apparently, and we have two for them, perfect.

The Givony quote that Doncic is as low as 8 in some of the bad teams big boards really tells you everything you need to know about why management matters so much in moments like these and why projecting drafts is so tough.

I trust Givony a lot and he has no reason to make this up but man, just how stupid some of these dudes can be. I’m firmly on the “front offices are often ran by stupid people” group but this is a whole new level of insanity. I just hope against reason the Knicks are not one of those teams but they probably are in the list.

At this point I just want them to draft someone obvious. Just go for either of the Bridges or Carter Jr. or Young if they’re available and call it a day. Drafting a complete bust this year would be a tragedy we really cannot afford. I’m a swing for the fences guy but I feel the fences are like 500 feet away with Knox or Sexton.

My problem with Mills is he says the right shit but he doesn’t seem to know what it means. Like he talks about being patient and doing things the right way and player development blah blah and then he gives Tim hardaway a stupidly huge deal,we’re playing Lee over kids in a season that’s gone off the rails, we’re trading for fucking Mudiay, etc. Knox seems like perfect millsbait. He was underwhelming because he played the 3, not the 4 in college. He’s got great length. He can kinda shoot. If we develop his rebounding, defense, ball handling and playmaking then baby we got something.

@156 This

I couldn’t agree more, just stick with one of the Bridges or Carter or Young if they fall. Don’t blow the pick or make a stupid trade giving up future valuable assets which would set them back even further.

The Knicks brass idiot meter seems to be spiking unless they suddenly have become smart and are actuallybeing clever. We’ll see, the more I hear and read the less confident I am of a good outcome. Meanwhile the Lakers are on the verge of getting 2 or 3 very good/great players, of course….