Knicks Morning News (2018.06.16)

With all this talk of Kawhi Leonard I think the Knicks should just stay the course with building through the draft. It will cost us a price we cannot afford to pay, and then he’d just leave. The Knicks should be looking to trade up to 4th overall where we could select Doncic or (my least favorite prospect but I acknowledge he would fit excellently in New York) Jackson Jr. instead. If we can get better without compromising our cap space or draft picks, then we should do it. Kawhi Leonard is more likely to join a team with Doncic, Porzingis, Ntilikina, and Zion Williamson than he is to stay on a team with Porzingis, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Trey Burke.

I really hope we end up with Doncic.

I’m actually pretty torn here. As much as I’m critical of Porzingis, I think teaming him with Kawhi, who has maybe 4 prime years left, could make for a potentially great duo. And after Noah and Kanter come off the books, we would become a great landing spot for other parts.

Basically, you’d start out with Kanter/O’Quinn/Noah?, KP (injured), Kawhi, Lee/Dotson?, Burke as your lineup.

Then maybe you get Kyrie and a hard-working rebounder/defender to play center in 2020.

Easy, right!? That’s assuming the Spurs accept the Frank/TH2/#9 platter. It just doesn’t make sense to do that trade but lose KP.

Any trade for Kawhi that includes KP is a non starter. We won’t be better by enough to matter but we’ll be older and have a shorter window.

A combination of KP and Kawhi would be fine as long as after the dust settles we have a lot of cap space in 2019. If we don’t, then the current year of Kawhi is a waste because KP will be hurt and the following year will be a waste because we still won’t have the surrounding pieces needed to make a serious run. We’ll also lose 2 years of Kawhi’s prime.

Moving up in the draft makes sense if it can be accomplished by giving up only “1” future core piece. By that I mean, we can include the #9, Frank, or next year’s #1, but we can’t include any 2 of those. All 3 of those are probably going to yield a core piece. We don’t want to go 2 for 1 to move up unless it’s an absolute moral lock we are getting a superstar. I’d be more apt to give up a future protected #1. By 2020 we should be a playoff contender. If we gave up #9 and a protected 2020 1st rounder, we’d be getting a better quality player this year, keep our #1 next year when we need it, and we’d already be a competitive team by 2020. So the 2020 pick would probably not be a huge deal assuming we actually got our target and the better player of all of them this year.

Moving down so we get 2 1st round picks for 1 also makes sense if we can’t get our target at #9 and don’t give up a core piece. 2 lottery tickets are better than 1 when you are throwing darts.

Can we please forget about a quick fix? Build a good young core BEFORE going after a big name player or two to complete puzzle that still is missing a whole lotta pieces.

Let the Lakers pay through the nose for KL. Anybody else dealing for him risks him leaving in one year.

Right now I’m far more worried about reports that the Knicks FO dynamic duo is enamored with Kevin Knox.

Anyone think the Knicks should make a run at getting Ball and his father’s sideshow? Lots of reports that the Lakers are eager to move him out.

@8
What if they offered Ball for the #9 pick so that they can use that pick to help secure KL from the Spurs?

While I agree with Jowles and others that tanking works if done well, it’s not the only way to build a contender, especially with the flattening of lottery odds. If we could just avoid making a dumb trade or free agency signing, commit to young, athletic, skilled players, shed salary or smartly take it on to get assets, and let the record fall where it may, that’s good enough for me. Trading anything for Kawhi at this point would be dumb, especially given his injury.

I absolutely love Kawhi Leonard’s game and approach. If he’s right physically he’s probably a top 5 player in the league. As much as I’d love to see him in New York, that is not happening and I think they should stay away from it. Trading for him now comes with a lot of risk including his injury and the good chance he might not sign long term. Never mind the Knicks don’t have the assets to pull off a trade for him anyway unless they are willing to part with KP and/or Frank and high picks which would not be wise.

They should stay the course, try to make a reasonable offer for the #4 pick and failing that make sure they draft the right guy at #9.

The only way we can get Kawaii is to trade KP, Frank and our pick. SA will have the whole league bidding for him. You don’t trade Kawaii for a guy who is about to miss a year. Boston traded a hurt player for Kyree but threw in a pick that many thought would be top 3. And Kawaii is better that Kyrie. And Thomas wasn’t hurt as bad as KP and was coming off a great year. And they threw in a serviceable player in Crowder. And they did that deal behind the scenes without every team bidding.

There’a almost no way to get Kawhi and retain enough depth and cap flexibility to build a contender in the narrower window you have with him. Keeping KP (if even possible) would mean devastating everything else and not keeping KP is also pointless. I hope they don’t waste more than 1 phone call on this. They should be focusing on any potential deals to move up or down in the draft that will add value. If they can’t find that, drafting the right player to add to KP and Frank should be the priority. They should also be exploring ways to move any of the vets if the deal will add value (no dumping).

A core of KP, Frank, and Mikal Bridges is actually a very good start given we also have quite a few quality bench players. That puts us 2 players and development time away from being a serious team. We have cap space coming up to fill those slots in 2019 and 2020. No more bad signings and all value enhancing moves and we’ll be fine.

No one at 9 is going to be nearly as good as Ball with perhaps the exception of Carter. We’d have an elite, switchable back court defense with KP doing his best Gobert impersonation at center. It’d be great to watch.

On defense maybe but a starting backcourt that put up .444 and .437 TS% last year? That’d lead to some brutal offense- at least short term. I still might make that trade but if Carter, Young or MPJ are there I’d probably take one of them and spare the team the prospect of LaVar Ball talking to the media 24/7.

@18

For reference, here’s D’Angelo Russell going through the same drill.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BkDVYo9h0Ad/?taken-by=cbrickley603

Frank looks faster but Russell is more in control it seems.

@22

Brickley probably sees this as a way to get them used to dribbling closer to the floor and changing hands on the fly, which seems pretty useful. Obviously it doesn’t immediately translate to a game but a guy like Frank has to walk before he can run, so to speak. His handle is such a work in progress that it will take a lot of work, not just one offseason.

The thing that jumps out most when you see D Lo and Frank do that drill is how different their weight distributions look. Frank seems like he’s on his heels a bit, which straightens him out and increases the degree of difficulty. When Frank goes between his legs it almost looks like he’s starting to squat. D Lo is more on his toes and his heels even come up a bit at times and you can barely see his weight shift backwards at all. It seems like Frank’s high center of gravity is more of an impediment to doing conventional pg stuff than pure ball handling.

If lonzo becomes a good 3 point shooter he’ll be an all star. He’s got some other serious flaws but his defense, rebounding and passing are already elite.

I don’t know how good he’s going be to but Jevon Carter is still going to be the NBA in 2030 when he’s 35.

@18. Strat. Looks impressive but Kidd, for example, never did many tricks with the ball. I heard it said a few times that he was “faster with the ball than without it”. Posts of Frank bulked up or dribbling don’t necessarily translate to his game. Proof is in the pudding.

Begley says the Knicks have a lot of interest in Lonnie Walker and Kevin Knox.

Kill me very, very slowly.

The thing is, other teams are reportedly very impressed by Knox in workouts too, including the Cavs and Sixers. He has good measurables and a nice looking shooting stroke, but his numbers are pretty damn average.

My brain would explode if the same people who have defended the signings of Dotson and Rose became the same people who complain about having to deal with a blowhard like Lavar Ball. As much as I like Lonzo, let’s not go that route.

People here on KB are talking the same way about Knox and Walker as they did last year about Tatum and Mitchell. It’s so hard to predict which players will immediately make the leap. I see enormous potential and some red flags with both players. Mikal is the much safer pick for sure, he’ll at least be a very good defensive player who can shoot the 3 and play within himself. I would have to defer to the guys in the workouts with them. I mean, the Knicks have worked out all of the guys who have a chance to be available, both from above and below. I probably wouldn’t pick either Knox or Walker based on what I’ve seen, but I have at least some faith in the current Knicks talent evaluators (especially Gaines.}

Lavar might be the the key to our future. Hear me out. The consensus appears to be that Kawhi would only re-sign if traded to NYK or Lakers. What if Spurs don’t want to trade Kawhi to WC team and/or don’t want the Lavar headache? Then Lakers could only offer Ingram/Kuzma/#25 pick. Kuzma just isn’t that good and Ingram shows promise but is just that at this stage and the #25 pick isn’t anything to get too stoked about. The Knicks could offer all or some combination of THJ/2018 #9 pick/2020 pick/2018 #36 pick/Burke/Dotson/Baker/Troy. Indeed such a package might be better than Laker one which includes Ball. (Note: There is the wild card of whether Randle would agree to a S&T to Spurs.)

If we had Kawhi and KP, gotta believe Kyrie would want to be a Knick. We’d be looking at a starting lineup in 2020 of Kyrie/Frank/Kawhi/KP/KOQ. Our bench would be dicey if Spurs take all of those players I mentioned: Courtney/Kornet/Room Exception/BAE. The health of Kyrie/KP/Kawhi would be very worrisome but that could be the best team in EC.

@33 agree
#killme slowly too

Every mock draft I’ve looked at has JJJ available at #4. I believe he’s the best player in this draft and a much better prospect than Ayton and Bags. I don’t know what Memphis’ main priority is – shedding salary or being competitive right away in Conley and Gasol’s waning years. But our #9, #36, THJ and Burke might be attractive to them in terms of shedding some salary and being more competitive right away.

Frank/KP/JJJ would be an incredible defensive core. Any guard who managed to elude Frank on the perimeter would then have his head on a swivel looking for JJJ and KP. It would be the “Dwight Effect” times 2. Frank and JJJ might be the best pair in league at defending the PnR. And of course switch all is a possibility.

I think JJJ’s got a much brighter future on the offensive end than people are projecting. He and Knox are the youngest players in this draft; JJJ’s a year younger than Ayton and Bamba. That year is critical in terms of strength affecting his rebounding and experience in expanding his offensive game. He’s already shot 43% from 3 and 78% from the line. He’s got a jump hook in the post and looks coordinated enough to develop more post moves in time which would be critical to take advantage on switches. In terms of his face-up game, he showed improvement in putting the ball on the floor and driving to rim. He should be fine in both PnPop and PnR.

Yesterday I linked the query which put his BPM right where the freshman BPM’s of now 4 elite NBA players. He ranked 3rd out of the top 6 since 2010 when they started keeping BPM stats. That’s remarkable in and of itself but even moreso when you consider he did it as an 18yo. I get the June swoon for Doncic (he’s my #2 pick after JJJ) but people are sleeping on JJJ. I hope Perry and Mills aren’t.

Knox looks like he might be able to score. His ASB numbers are anemic, but he’s super young and who the fuck knows with those weird Kentucky teams. He’s a big kid, so you might be looking at a good stretch 4 in 4 years. There are going to be better prospects available but you can sort imagine what Kevin Knox, good NBA player would look like. I don’t know why anyone would draft Walker in the lottery. He wasn’t notably good at anything.

Zanzibar if you search for Freshmen with a offensive box plus minus >11 you might get an idea why someone would draft a player in this class above JJJ.

If you don’t want to search it’s a list of guys named Trae Young. It’s just one stat, but Trae had the best freshman season by offensive box plus minus since 2010 and the only guy who comes anywhere close is Kyrie, who barely played.

The attraction to Lonnie Walker is he’s an excellent defender and plus NBA athlete with long arms and a tight handle, and maybe they think his aggressive style would make him a good attacking guard next to Frank, who is more a facilitator. I think he has a higher ceiling than Mikal Bridges but he’s about half as likely to reach his ceiling. He also has scoring range and he was injured through some of his season. I wouldn’t take him but I see the logic and I’d hope the Knicks could develop him.

I don’t worry that the Knicks are checking out a lot of players They could trade down as well as up, and it’s best to be prepared for anything.

@52

Yeah, but what’s your point? Drafting Tatum at #1 would have been a reach simply because he was projected to still be available at the very least in the 3rd position. Reaches are not relative to the result in terms of how the player eventually plays in the NBA, but to their relative values at the time of the draft. Drafting Mitchell 3rd would have been a huge reach even if would be the right decision.

Lets say the Lakers somehow knew Mitchell would be the best or second best player in this draft, it would still be stupid for them to simply pick him 2nd when he was projected to be a late lottery pick. If you feel that strongly about the guy, use your pick to trade down, acquire extra assets and pick the guy where he’s projected to be.

If the Knicks do feel that confident about Knox or Walker, it would still probably be a mistake to simply pick them at the 9th unless they know something nobody else seems to know and the 10th, 11th team for example wants them, and of course unless trading down is literally impossible. As far as we know, there’s no reason to be desperate to draft those guys before the 12th or 13th pick, even if all you get in a trade down is just a second rounder or something like that.

Knox is my single biggest nightmare scenario. I wouldn’t want him with the 20th pick. His steals and blocks are really bad and his rebounds aren’t good either. I think it really points to a lack of athleticism. He has no motor and seems slow footed. He shoots pretty well but I think in the NBA he will be stuck on the perimeter on offense and bad on defense. On top of all that he barely gets any assists and has bad +/- scores. I see no real upside, I can’t see what anyone sees. Stats are bad and in person, the biggest takeaway I get is he seems slow. He might be young but bad is bad. He looks like a total bust to me.

As for Walker he could be okay and with a later pick he would be but he seems so much worse than Zhaire Smith. They’re the same size but Smith is younger (as young as Knox) and has much better shooting numbers, rebounds, FTR and blocks and similar points, assists, turnovers and steals all while being a better athlete and leading his team to the Elite Eight. The only thing Walker does better is take more threes, never mind that he hits them at 35% compared to 45%. I think it’s so clear who the better prospect is that taking Walker over Smith would be criminal.

If no one falls then it’s Smith, Miles or Mikal (in that order), anyone else is malpractice.

I do think it was dumb for the sixers to move up for Fultz instead of Lonzo, but there was essentially no chance Philly or the Lakers were going to take Tatum so it was smart for the Celtics to make that deal once they settled on Tatum (they probably should have just drafted Lonzo)

Relating that to the present, if the Knicks decide that Lonnie Walker is the guy, sure, try to trade down to a spot where you are still guaranteed to pick him, but don’t risk losing him because you think he’s a reach. The only players that are clearly better prospects than him are Doncic, Ayton, JJJ, and possibly Bagley and Bamba. Every other player projected to go above Walker has a serious red flag, Young is undersized an weak on D. Porter Jr. has a bad back. Sexton can’t shoot. The Bridges both have flaws. Carter is possibly a liability vs. NBA small-ball lineups. SGA can’t shoot. Knox has a motor problem.

Tatum is younger than Lonzo, and he was arguably better than him last year. It’s hard to tell-they both get a lot of their value at this point from defense, and Tatum played on a much better defensive team. Lonzo was just the clear best prospect in that draft-that’s why I think the Celtics should have drafted him from a process standpoint.

Trae Young is a million times better prospect than Lonnie Walker.

@62, sure…and that’s what many here were saying about Ainge for coveting Tatum…sort of, “at least they got an additional draft pick to compensate for the bust that Tatum is very likely to become…”

I just heard that Knox outplayed Mile Bridges in a workout for NY and that’s why he’s moving up for them. So it may be Mikal Bidges or Knox depending on who gets selected ahead of NY.

Is Walker even ranked in the top ten on ANYone’s board? Like, any site? Knox has shown up in top tens a lot, at least. So there’s people scouting these things who think enough of him to put him in the top ten. Mitchell hit the top ten, too, last year on a few sites.

https://twitter.com/draftexpress/status/1001942002223763462?lang=en

Good piece on Walker…

https://elitesportsny.com/2018/06/12/new-york-knicks-lonnie-walker-is-miamis-best-prospect-in-twenty-years/

Good piece on Walker…

https://elitesportsny.com/2018/06/12/new-york-knicks-lonnie-walker-is-miamis-best-prospect-in-twenty-years/

A piece that says, “Walker is a reach at nine for the Knicks.”

The draft is a crapshoot, so a player that looks great like Winslow will bust sometimes. There is no real way to fully avoid that. But you look at the numbers and look for red flags. What will translate, what won’t, are there any huge concerns, etc. Westbrook with his mediocre numbers is an anomaly, but UCLA guys always seem to have bad numbers and his athleticism was through the roof and he was regarded as a great defensive prospect so there was real upside.

I see red flags with most players but you look at numbers and strengths and see if their upside outweighs their red flags. With Knox and Walker, I see red flags but don’t really see the huge strengths to counter them, at least not in the numbers.

It’s also good to remember, though, that Winslow had a much better year last year and is only a half year older than Mitchell, who was pretty good for a rookie but may not necessarily improve that much more.

I know Z-man has already erected a statue of himself in Salt Lake City, but the jury is still sort of out on a lot of these players.

tatum had the numbers… had the age…. and had the ability… kb underrated him because for whatever reason but probably because he had some sort of resemblance to melo… and the other mocks didn’t give him the respect that he frankly deserved… he put up just as good a numbers as all the other prospects yet he was almost two years younger than the other wings…..

mitchell was ‘underrated’…. and yes i’m included… because he took and missed a lot of crazy stupid shots in college which for whatever reason started going in when he turned pro…. that can happen… and has happened a lot… a prospect shows a weakness that actually isn’t…. or he improves on that in the pro’s….

but knox and walker have a lot wrong with their games than just one area…. it’s a whole lot… with knox… it’s a varied offensive game… he is basically just a shooter… and he’s talented there i admit… but getting to the basket he’s not very good.. even with all the size in the world…. even mikal was better at it when he was a freshman…. so i don’t buy that he’ll eventually develop it…. on top of that he doesn’t rebound or have the defensive numbers… and the defensive numbers are a death-knell for any lotto prospect…. unless you’re jj redick…. you can’t overcome that….. and i don’t think folks envision redick when they look at knox….

walker has more issues… namely he hasn’t shown any plus ability anywhere….. i’m not sure what was going on in miami… but there seriously had to be a lot going wrong if he really was more talented than the numbers showed….. and from the little that i saw.. i just don’t buy that…. he’s an undersized guard who had a shaky handle…. he’s a lot like rashad vaughn…. and i don’t think he’s anything more than that….

that doesn’t necessarily mean they have no shot…. things happen for the first time ever all the time…. but i wouldn’t lay down anything significant on these guys… and i think folks are seeing a lot things that just aren’t there…

Russell Westbrook scouting in 2008:

His athleticism is just a marvel to take in in person

There are many great athletes in this year’s draft, but Russell Westbrook is in an entirely different category

Westbrook has seduced me with his athleticism. He can sprint and slash, and explodes off the ground like NASA built him.

What makes him special, though, is his lockdown defense.

Lonnie Walker scouting:

Pros: Good athlete

The Mitchell thing is not a good indicative to be honest because everyone was caught off guard by his level of play as a rookie. I don’t think people thought of him as a bust, but he had bad shooting percentages, low assist to turnover rates, didn’t get much to the line and his team got bounced in the second round against a bad Michigan team that promptly lost their next game in the tournament. There was stuff to like, yeah, but how could someone be sure that he would be able to create shots so well against nba competition when he didn’t do it against mediocre college teams?

Besides, unlike Tatum, his production is still far from great. People love to harp on Devin Booker being a empty stats on a bad team kinda guy but if you put Donovan in Phoenix and Booker in Utah I’m pretty sure the results would not be that different.

for whatever reason guys with good steal rates tend to overperform….. and if you combine his freshman and soph 2p fg% it’s actually about where you want it to be…. and his college career line looks like a real good pro prospect….

so mitchell’s performance didn’t come from nowhere…. it’s just given all of that… and he’s performed about as well as you could expect… how much do you want an undersized two guard on your team? what’s mitchell’s upside when it’s all said and done? how happy are you with a cj mccollum type of player?

that really was my main concern.. on top of his shot selection issues which i think is still an issue for him…. but knowing what i know now i still probably wouldn’t take him at least until a half dozen or so names come off the board still….

So the word from Bagely is that we’re picking Kevin Knox at #9 if Carter isn’t available. He gives me a Micheal Beasley sort of feel. And that makes sense considering this front office’s hardon for Beasley. I really hope we don’t pick him. All offense, poor defense, and limited ability to self create. I truly hope this is a smoke screen by the FO.

I think that there are nine players I’d rather see them draft than Knox. So who do you think they’re passing up at #9 then? Bridges? I guess you can’t take Bridges when you have Courtney Lee out there. Lee is the future of this team.

I mean, there is a chance Porter falls to 9, and then they’d have to take him over Knox, right? I wonder why they’re turned off of Mikal? Maybe they just assume he’s going above 9 now? Either way, I think Carter would be a terrific pick, regardless of fit.

It might be they think Frank is more of a two, but even if the Knicks want a 3/4 over a 2/3 the pick is Miles right? He so much of a better prospect. I really can’t see one single thing Knox does better than Miles.

Knox has almost historically bad steal and block numbers for an NBA prospect. Doug Mcdermott bad. On top of that, his rebound and assist numbers are mediocre. Knox will be a bust. I see no path to him being good. I said he’d be good value late in the first, I take it back, I think I’d pass on him with our second round pick.

Well, the Knicks practices are legendary for determining stuff like Luke Kornet deserves a roster spot over Willy Hernangomez or that Lance Thomas is such a valuable veteran player, so how can we doubt the results of this workout?

@98, well, yeah…unless you do what Philly did and draft guys half the time that suck, wasting those tanked seasons….or don’t tank and do like GSW did, draft lower but well. We’ve had 3 single-digit picks in the last 4 years. It’s not tanking as you describe, but we still are more tanking than not tanking.

and his team got bounced in the second round against a bad Michigan team that promptly lost their next game in the tournament.

Of the reasons why anybody should have been skeptical of Mitchell this isn’t one. This “bad” Michigan team had the 2nd best offense in the country, won the Big Ten tournament and then lost their next game by 1 point in the Sweet 16 to Oregon, who ultimately lost to eventual national champion UNC by 1 point.

Mitchell’s main issues taking too many of the dribble pull up jumpers instead of working to get to the rim more frequently and also being a subpar finisher.

FWIW Walker, at a younger age, has eerily similar shot distributions and percentages from the field as Mitchell did last season.

Walker:
at rim – 29.9% FGA, 58.9 FG%
2 pt J – 19.9% FGA, 32.8 FG%
3P – 50.9% FGA, 34.7 3P%

Mitchell 2nd yr:
at rim – 26.6% FGA, 55.9 FG%
2 pt J – 22.5% FGA, 35.5 FG%
3P – 50.9% FGA, 35.4 3P%

Also thought Walker showed development as a playmaker off the dribble through the season and his defense, while not lockdown, is solid with normal young player issues at times with failing to get in a stance on ball and falling asleep on cutters due to to ball watching off ball.

The main difference I see between Walker and Mitchell are the rebound and steal rates. Mitchell had impact stats on defense that gave him avenues to provide value aside from volume scoring and secondary playmaking. Walker didn’t have near the impact in those areas as Mitchell.

His decision making is a definite issue. He calls his number at dumb times way too often. Miami not having a capable PG exacerbated the problem, but he is his own worst enemy in this regard. Can he be coached up or is that who he is? I imagine meeting with him for 3 hours was largely to gauge his IQ and capacity to learn/improve.

I like Walker, but wouldnt take him at 9. I do think he has upside to develop into an efficient high usg perimeter creator though.