SNY.com: Knicks, Marcus Morris have strong mutual interest in reaching free agency agreement this summer

From Ian Begley, who is having himself one heck of a debut season for SNY.com:

The Knicks are probably going to get plenty of calls from teams interested in Marcus Morris between now and next Thursday’s NBA trade deadline.

You would expect them to listen to any offers on Morris, because that’s what any team would do in their situation.

But it’s worth noting that at least one team in touch with the Knicks recently was left with the impression that Morris and New York have strong mutual interest in reaching an agreement in free agency this summer, per SNY sources.

There are also rumors that Mills and Perry might get fired, so it is perfectly Knicksy to have these guys not trade Morris, only for them to be fired.

But hey, Morris signed long term is worth those guys getting fired, I guess.

It’s all still quite stupid. But, well, that’s the Knicks for ya.

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187 thoughts to “SNY.com: Knicks, Marcus Morris have strong mutual interest in reaching free agency agreement this summer”

  1. But it’s worth noting that at least one team in touch with the Knicks recently was left with the impression that Morris and New York have strong mutual interest in reaching an agreement in free agency this summer, per SNY sources.

    This really needs a Mr. Bill “Oh Noooooo” GIF.

  2. I love how one of the only “arguments” for not trading Morris is that the only way that the Knicks could trade Morris is if they take back longterm deals, which they don’t want to do. Suuuuure it is.

  3. Hey when you get a chance to sign a journeyman forward with a .090 career WS48 to a market value extension that covers his age 31-34 seasons you gotta just jump at that chance. Who knows when an opportunity like that will come along again.

  4. I’d be interested in talking to Pills and trying to understand how they think signing Marcus Morris to an extension helps them convince Dolan not to fire them.

  5. But it’s worth noting that at least one team in touch with the Knicks recently was left with the impression that Morris and New York have strong mutual interest in reaching an agreement in free agency this summer, per SNY sources.

    This honestly isn’t that great a source, not that I don’t believe Pills are stupid enough to want to resign him.

    Berman’s story was more interesting and Mills himself might have been the source for that one. It’s possible they’ve already been told they’re out.

  6. It’s on NBC so you can get an antenna and watch without cable.

    Not gonna lie: I forgot you could do this and don’t even know how it would work on a modern tv. But it reminded me of those little dials that you would have to adjust on a B&W TV to make the picture more clear, and that made me happy. I want one of those TVs again.

  7. I’m actually having trouble wrapping my brain around this.
    I like Morris. I think on a good team he is a valuable 3rd option, and he has moxy.
    But his age and what they could get back in terms of picks seems to make a trade the right play.
    For a team that is generally terrible at picking, more picks hopefully improves the chance we get lucky.

    This is such a lost franchise.

  8. Not trading Morris for a cup of coffee is understandable.
    But signing him to an albatross won’t be cool.
    Only trading him next season for something meaningful will justify not trading him right now but that’s pretty risky shit…

    Do you feel lucky punk “GM”?

  9. I changed my avatar for the first time in 10 years, btw.
    The Dolan picture pointing out a fan to security was just too exquisite.

  10. According to league sources, there’s a fear inside the Knicks front office that either Perry or Mills will be fired soon after the trade deadline.

    This is such a staple of organization. The obvious thing to do would be to have someone with a long term view in place before the deadline, not after.

    It’s just like how we let Phil draft Frank before we fired him.

    Timing is everything. It’s not that hard to figure this stuff out.

  11. I’ll just note that in the past we’ve often heard tidbits like this and written them off as leverage plays, or incomplete information (maybe we’re taking on Bargnani/Rose as a salary dump, etc.), or anything other than what they turn out to be: unambiguously awful moves.

    So, I don’t think he’s getting traded. It sounds like these chucklefucks will be fired though, so whether or not he’s re-signed comes down to whatever the next dumbass thinks about him.

    Not trading Morris for a cup of coffee is understandable.

    Repeat after me: there is absolutely no justification whatsoever for not trading Morris for the best offer.

    Seriously, none at all. When it inevitably doesn’t happen we’ll see a ton of attempts to justify it, as if Dolan’s Razor doesn’t make it clear that it’s as simple as a very stupid team doing a very stupid thing.

  12. I have had a picture ready to use as an avatar but have never figured out how to do it.

    People on twitter are making a big deal of this being the 1 year anniversary of the Porzingis deal. I still feel pretty ok about it.

    BTW, John Collins had another monster game last night (along with Trae of course._ I don’t think we will have to worry about getting outtanked by them.

  13. or thinks any less of them.

    He literally said that Jae Crowder is soft like a woman. Because women are soft. Because women are weaker than men. Do you not see the mental gymnastics you’re doing to tell us that the sky is pink?

    This is such a staple of organization. The obvious thing to do would be to have someone with a long term view in place before the deadline, not after.

    It’s just like how we let Phil draft Frank before we fired him.

    I thought I posted this very sentiment in the last thread, must have forgotten to click send. This is 100% the case.

    A competent owner would have stopped evaluating success by 10-game stretches (an utterly ridiculous concept except it probably mirrors his quarterly-earnings outlook in the corporate world) and looked at the SRS, or the EWL, or hell, their basic W-L record at any point in the season and fired Pills immediately.

    Then he would have installed a smart, analytics-minded GM/POBO with a five-year plan: years 1 and 2 to clear the books of dead weight and draft busts, years 3 and 4 to develop a rising young roster assembled in years 1 and 2, and year 5 to be firmly in the playoffs with a sustainable future, Bird rights for everyone moving forward, and cap room/future draft assets to bring in the “final pieces” when available.

    So, I don’t think he’s getting traded. It sounds like these chucklefucks will be fired though, so whether or not he’s re-signed comes down to whatever the next dumbass thinks about him.

    And if it does happen, you will hear some boilerplate front-office-speak about culture. That’s how we’ll know to abandon the team forever.

    People on twitter are making a big deal of this being the 1 year anniversary of the Porzingis deal. I still feel pretty ok about it.

    What are they saying about it? Are they talking about how he cut his usage by 4.5 FGA per 100 poss. and is still setting a career-worst in shooting efficiency? And how the Mavs have to pay him for four more years after this one?

    If the Knicks had traded him for a single 2028 2nd-rounder because that was the only available offer out there, they would have won the trade.

  14. Well, I asked for a new thread and the site went down right away, so at least some of us feel like you do.

  15. One can hope this is a bluff of some sort. If you think through it logically, since it came from another team, this team in question (Clippers?) probably made the offer that’s been floated around with Harkless, and Perry bluffed with this “we want Morris longterm” stuff to try and get a better return.

    So the other team went to Begley (or vice versa), and the team said “oh, we heard the Knicks want to keep Morris longterm (shrug emoji!)”

    So yeah, it would be nice to get a 1st AND a 2nd for Morris by playing ninja mind games, but at the end of the day, I have to believe Perry will take the best offer on the table.

  16. Repeat after me: there is absolutely no justification whatsoever for not trading Morris for the best offer.

    it sucks I’ve been saying this for years with our various expiring decent vets (like O’Quinn) and then we never trade them and the FO says something about not getting good enough offers. . .something is better than nothing. Marcus Morris’s contract expires at the end of the year and the Knicks have no reason to win games. He is of no value to this team.

  17. I think the server just reacts to bile.

    People seem ok with Porzingis deal. Many wish it had included Brunson. Some have commented on the fact that Tim Hardaway Jr. has been the best player in the trade.

  18. hopefully jimmy calls mckinsey for advice…even the first year associate (who they would use to service this very important client) over there will give him the right answer on what to do with morris (because they would google this sight for guidance and see what the popular opinion is)…

  19. A Bondy article from a few days ago is making the rounds on twitter and it says the Knicks don’t want to move morris because he’s our best and most consistent player, which is:

    1. not true; and
    2. the Knicks are 13-36

  20. Imagine being so stupid that you think locking up a 31 year old player long term is more important than collecting assets because said 31 year old is the (2nd) best player on a team that’s going to win 22 games. The abject stupidity of it the idea is staggering though I guess the joke’s on us since we’re all rooting for this team.

    I don’t understand how there’s so much debate over Morris’ sexist comments. He clearly wanted to call Crowder a bitch and/or a pussy but didn’t want to get fined so he called Crowder a woman/womanly because being/acting like a woman instead of a man is a bad thing. He clearly wasn’t comparing Crowder’s physical strength to that of a woman’s and anyone arguing that is disgustingly dishonest.

    @8 As far as I know, rabbit ear antennas don’t really exist anymore. My antenna is a flat square, maybe 1’x1′, that I hung near a window and plugs into my TV via a coaxial cable. It works pretty well and seems to get a pretty good signal on most stations though I have nothing to compare it to. I don’t watch a ton of live TV but it’s nice to have when I want to watch NBA, NFL, or MLB playoff games or the few network shows that I enjoy. Everything else I use streaming services for.

    @15 Look in the upper right corner of the screen, you should see “Howdy, Owen”. Click on that, scroll down Profile Picture near the bottom of the screen, and click on the Gravitar link to change your avatar.

  21. I actually thought the words Morris used were substitute for his desired “faggot,” but yeah maybe it was only “bitch/pussy.” Hard to tell for sure, but the former would have gotten him in massive trouble. In any event, yeah, the words were substitutes for something else.

  22. Three steps to GMing in New York.
    1. Make sure your move does not have anywhere in its reasoning that ‘this is new yawk’
    2.Does this move yield a higher chance of success in 3-5 years?
    3. What would Knickerblogger/Dred do?
    [this post was really so that i can see my new gravatar/spirit animal]

  23. i’ll try to change the subject to something more hopeful… the draft… here’s an updated top 10:

    1 – Onyeka Okongwu – he’s limited offensively which is why most folks don’t have him anywhere near the top spot… but he has been dominant and it’s hard to ignore… there are glimmers that he could expand his game given his solid performance at the line and that’s really the reason he should be the #1 pick because he could be an all-defense type very quickly….

    2 – Anthony Edwards – some shine has worn off…. shooting has gotten better but the defensive numbers have fallen off to just ok territory… he’s about where d’angelo russell was as a prospect which is good but he’s settling into a B+ type instead of an A…

    3 – James Wiseman – he’s a bit of a mystery but what little he’s shown has been enough …

    4 – Killian Hayes – he’s getting some more attention now.. including from masai

    5 – Aaron Nesmith – he’s a shooter and his off the dribble game is a bit limited since he’s mostly been catch and shoot but he can really fill it up while holding his own in other areas…

    6 – Jahmius Ramsey – he’s another shooter who’s a bit limited and while he’s younger than nesmith.. his ft% is also not great… it’s also not so bad that he can’t recover from it tho…

    7 – Tyrese Haliburton – this is about the right spot for him.. solid if unspectacular prospect…

    8 – CJ Elleby – unlike the other two wings he has a good allaround game.. a bit of a slingshot on his shooting motion which usually doesn’t translate well but a risk worth taking at this point..

    9 – Jalen Smith – haven’t seen much of him but he’s been in and out of my filters and he’s performed consistently enough to solidify a top 10 slot…

    10 – Obi Toppin – there are age and level of comp concerns but he’s got a good modern pf…

  24. I wouldn’t mind screwing up our draft position by winning meaningless games on the backs of our 1 and done vets if it means we draft Haliburton. I don’t know what his ultimate ceiling is but he has a high floor which is nice considering all the low floor prospects we’ve drafted.

  25. Begley:

    Frank Ntilikina said his groin ailment acted up prior to tip-off on Wednesday’s game against Memphis. He said he’s feeling better. His status for the Pacers game is uncertain, based on how he feels Saturday

  26. Signing Morris longterm after not trading him may not be the worst move we’ve made, but somehow it feels like the dumbest

  27. it sucks I’ve been saying this for years with our various expiring decent vets (like O’Quinn) and then we never trade them and the FO says something about not getting good enough offers. . .something is better than nothing. Marcus Morris’s contract expires at the end of the year and the Knicks have no reason to win games. He is of no value to this team.

    I do think Morris is probably the most pronounced version of this we’ve ever had though. O’Quinn for example was liked by a lot of people on this board, but it’s pretty clear the league doesn’t value him for whatever reason – he’s really struggled to get PT throughout his career despite consistently good stats when he plays and he hasn’t climbed the salary scale at all. Although it seemed like there should have been decent interest in him at that deadline, there really may not have been, and I doubt they would’ve gotten more than a low second rounder for him.

    Morris on the other hand really is the perfect test case for this. The team is awful, he’s expiring, he doesn’t have full bird rights, his next contract is likely to be poor value outside of a contending team, and absolutely everyone agrees that there’s a first round pick (or equivalent value) available for him. You will never, ever see a more cut and dried case.

  28. Maybe Pills are just saying they want to sign Mook long term because they’ve been disempowered and they want to save face.

  29. well i wouldn’t say everything but he does have a problem getting to the line which is indicative of a lot of things….

    i generally hate theringer’s draft coverage but this piece on haliburton earlier in the year was really well done…

    he really is a lot like lonzo ball except tyrese has taken a different path to where he is now…. he’s an analytical favorite because he’s always been wildly efficient but inching his way into more usage while maintaining some of that efficiency… sometimes those guys turn into kawhi.. a lot of times they’re just jose calderon… or if you’re lonzo … struggle to get to those same efficient opportunities you got in college… longer 3p line and less transition buckets…

  30. You don’t have to read past ‘Killian Hayes is a French…’ to know we’re not drafting him. I’d bet money that Dolan carved “No Frenchmen” into the GMs office

  31. It seems like a very simple concept.

    You have an asset in one hand, that will undoubtedly be gone at a certain point if you do nothing with it. You can either trade it to someone else for a tangible return that you can either a) use as an asset via drafting that is now an “asset” for at least 3 years (that you can then trade again for more assets if it turns out badly!) or b) trade these newly acquired shinies for more assets, and you guessed it, that you would’ve gotten nothing for! I would entrust my 3 year old niece to understand this concept and make the right decision.

    ,What does Morris signing you long term get? On a 50+ win core, sure. but on a ~20 win team? I am not sure why the “when” to add these guys to your roster is such a difficult concept the last 20 years (not to mention most of them were mediocre to shit).

  32. @44 Lonzo also has the single most bizarre shooting form I’ve ever seen in the NBA, worse than Marcus Camby, Shawn Marion, and Joakim Noah, which doesn’t help him at all. He also can’t shoot FT in the NBA which speaks to a larger issue than a longer 3P line and fewer transition buckets.

    Jose Calderon was a pretty good player in his prime and at this point I’d consider it a miracle if any of our non-Mitch rookie contract players ever end up as good as him, so I wouldn’t mind drafting someone like that when we inevitably fall to the 7, 8, or 9 pick. Hell, Calderon probably would’ve been the best PG the Knicks have had in 25 years.

  33. I used to love Calderon. He was my fantasy basketball white whale. Never missed a ft, never committed a turnover, and lots of threes, (also rarely healthy.) But that guy couldn’t guard a Pomeranian in transition. He was really really bad on defense.

  34. Haliburton generates some pretty box scores with his high efficiency shooting, strong assist/turnover numbers and steals. Like Lonzo he does have the rep for having a shooting form that might not translate well to the NBA though.

    He looks like a good two way player to me.

  35. We have no idea what kind of offers are on the table for Morris, but we have to take money back. So if we take back an expiring contract (which is what I’m sure management wants), it doesn’t seem a like a shoe in we are also going to get much back in terms of “pick” value.

  36. Most of the thinks that shouldn’t matter though. I’d rather have a low first or a high second (these are VERY valuable on contract dollars alone) than nothing at all. If we could jettison these “hired gun(s)”, and I use that term loosely, and get a pick(s) with some expiring contracts (which can also be flipped) you’ve put yourself in a better place, even marginally.

    Morris/Portis et. al. get you nothing but meaningless wins and worse draft position. We have 20 years of use cases with this team alone.

  37. Saw on Twitter Luka sprained his ankle really badly. KP will pick up the slack once that Slovenian millstone is off his back.

  38. What does Morris signing you long term get? On a 50+ win core, sure. but on a ~20 win team?

    If you want to understand their thinking I think I can explain it.

    Then you can disagree with it.

    They see Morris as being a productive player for “x” more years on a team to which they hope to add more free agents and another high draft pick while also getting development from their current young players like Mitch, Frank, RJ, Knox etc..

    They have learned that top players do not go to bad teams (something they should have learned long ago as I said a million times). So they do not want to totally tank again going forward. They want to make the team more attractive while developing the young players. That way there’s a chance they can attract a higher level player either next year or the year after in free agency or a trade. Finally, they consider Morris a good leader for the young players in terms of work ethic and playing hard every night.

    Now you can disagree.

  39. They have learned that top players do not go to bad teams (something they should have learned long ago as I said a million times). So they do not want to totally tank again going forward.

    OK but why haven’t they (and maybe you) learned that signing Marcus Morris and other shitty veterans doesn’t make them a good team? It’s right there in the win-loss record.

  40. Yeah, Morris is playing out of his goddamn mind, and we are still an utter embarrassment. I do think he would be a genuinely useful piece for the Clips or Heat or some other teams that are much better than we are, but in this environment, he’s doing nothing to in any way make us attractive to difference-making free agents. Which he will very much not be this summer.

  41. Maybe they’re trying to ‘built’ a ‘Frankenstein team’ for the Greek Freak Free Agency and Mook looks like a decent piece to them for a start.
    Maybe….
    Maybe not….

  42. Oh, I have no doubt they still believe they can acquire a superstar via trade or free agency. That is how they’ve always operated, despite ample evidence to the contrary. They gotta go.

  43. Marcus Morris doesn’t make the Knicks good we’re 13-36 and we play our best player 22 minutes a night. If we’d given all Morris’s minutes to Dotson and Knox we’d be like 11-38 and that’s only because Knox is awful

  44. He literally said that Jae Crowder is soft like a woman. Because women are soft. Because women are weaker than men. Do you not see the mental gymnastics you’re doing to tell us that the sky is pink?

    Being “soft” is a negative in basketball.

    If you ask me, it’s a positive in many other areas.

    Apparently he thinks women are softer than men in general, but again, that does not necessarily translate into hating them, thinking they are inferior, thinking they should make less money, thinking they are all soft, thinking that WNBA players soft, or that all female business leaders and politicians are soft etc… It means it’s bad in basketball. It translates into thinking the “average” man is different than the “average” woman (but without one being superior or inferior)

    What makes it a stupid thing to say is that these generalizations are not true for all individuals and some people get offended by them. So even if you think men “on average” are stronger and tougher than women “on average” just don’t say it in a way that makes someone feel inferior in some specific way as he did.

  45. Now you can disagree.

    I’m not 100% irretrievably against a reasonable extension for Morris, but I am if Randle is still on the team. The fit there is horrific and one inveterate chucker is more than enough. Obviously, if they can get a 1 in return they should trade him. Trading him and then resigning him aren’t mutually exclusive, especially since he’s just going to go to the highest bidder anyway.

  46. Now you can disagree.

    I’m confused if you agree with this sentiment or just explaining Pills thought process. If it’s just the latter then disregard the below.

    Marcus Morris is a replacement level player by most metrics (i am probably being a tad too harsh here) AND the eye test , who happens to be having a career year from 3, but that is retreating by the game so the jury is still out on that. Portis by all accounts has similar 3-point numbers (career) and nobody seems to want to resign him. At least none of us do. He’s a below average rebounder, poor passer, and definitely not a leader in the locker room. That isn’t worth 15 mil a year on a 20 win team. i’d rather have two in the bush than nothing in the hand.

    If i’m a free agent and care about the quality of my teammates, i cringe to think that i would want to join a team where 15 million of my cap is spent on a ball stopping vet on the wrong side of 30 with depreciating stats. They shouldn’t be signing the Morris’ of the world. They should be taking flyers/keeping the Kornet’s of the world at the same efficiency, younger, and at a fraction of the cost.

  47. If they fail to trade him there’s still hope….
    Signing Morris to the right contract makes him a nice tradeable asset.
    Right Contract in my book means no more than 10m per yr and no more than 3yrs.

  48. I’m confused if you agree with this sentiment or just explaining Pills thought process. If it’s just the latter then disregard the below.

    I’m like 80%-20% against keeping him depending on what we can get for him, how much it would cost per year to keep him, how long the deal is, and whether we intend on using any pick we get to draft another 19 year old role player or try to combine assets to get a better player. I want to do the latter. I think he’s a fairly good player that probably has 2-3 more productive years left and I’m not in favor of continuing an all out tank year after year.

  49. Signing Morris to the right contract makes him a nice tradeable asset.

    Bro, you think someone’s going to send more 3 years from now at $10M than this year at $15M?

    He’s 30 right now. This contract is tradeable and has absolutely no purpose for the Knicks’ future except to bring back more assets.

    They are a team that will be lucky to crack 25 wins. They need to trade. Now.

  50. I don’t get what you mean on the first paragraph THCJ.
    The hard part is for Mook to accept this kind of contract.
    Not to trade it.
    Mook ain’t dead yet. He’s still playing competent hero/playoff ball.

  51. I know that he can be traded and then resigned but that kind of moves need prior agreements and Mook ain’t exactly the guy to trust as Popp already knows…

  52. If they take back an expiring contract for Morris they are just going to put another useless player back into it the space next year because that’s all that will come to a bad team like NY.

    If they get a pick with an expiring contract, they are going to select a player that’s most likely not going to be productive any time soon, put him into cap space, and then use the rest of the cap space for another useless player.

    That’s why in my opinion the correct move is to use any asset we get in combination with the Dallas picks (or something like that) to move up in the draft or trade for player that can have a real impact. We don’t need to keep playing musical chairs with role players and late 1st and 2nd round picks whose expected long term value in another role player. We need impact players, but unfortunately for us, part of that is being good enough to attract them.

  53. Wait what did I do wrong…. all I have now is a profile pic on something called gravatar.

    testing…yeah, i stopped being interested in figuring shit about 2 or 3 decades ago…soooo, yeah this is currently where i am at now in this process…

  54. dang, a bunch of the cool logos are locked out of that gravitar thing…

    you know, my first instinct was just going with a naked pic – of me…they say you should always go with that first instinct…

  55. That’s why in my opinion the correct move is to use any asset we get in combination with the Dallas picks (or something like that) to move up in the draft or trade for player that can have a real impact.

    We have holes at four positions. Why would we trade picks for fewer picks?

    You can get talent throughout the first round.

    We don’t need to keep playing musical chairs with role players and late 1st and 2nd round picks whose expected long term value in another role player.

    The problem is not primarily that our picks aren’t high enough. It’s that they’re wasted on “projects” that have little chance of being a good NBA player, to say nothing of superstardom.

    Does anyone actually doubt that this team would have been worse off if they had simply traded the #3 for the #8 and #17 from Atlanta and taken Hayes and Clarke?

    You’d have PF and C locked up for 4 years between Mitch, Clarke and Hayes and you could spend all of your cap space looking for wings and guards.

  56. Does anyone actually doubt that this team would have been worse off if they had simply traded the #3 for the #8 and #17 from Atlanta and taken Hayes and Clarke?

    I disagreed with the Knox pick, but in that case we are not talking about the correct strategy for the rebuild. We are talking about the competency of the selection. IMO, it was a poor selection.

    I liked Clarke a lot and would have gladly given up a Dallas pick and something else try to get him. However, the reason Clarke went lower than RJ is not because of how good they were expected to be this season. It’s because one is 23 and one is 19. Clarke may be more ready to be productive now, but most people believe RJ will eventually be the better player. It’s a choice between greater present value and greater future value. And that future value is expected be better by enough to make the wait worthwhile relative to having Clarke. That’s the explanation. I would not have traded down for Clarke (I had no opinion on Hayes and knew nothing about him). I’m fine with the RJ pick even if the payoff is years away.

    The reason I would trade UP is because we need real impact players. You need those legitimate #1 and #2 option type players to contend. You are most likely to get them among the top 5 players in the draft, free agency, or in a trade that includes picks. But free agency is kind of dead for us until we get better and even trades are difficult when the player has leverage.

  57. It’s actually good that are Dallas picks aren’t immediately available because they will be trade assets for longer if some good opportunity comes along.

  58. Can’t Dolan put one of us in charge? That would improve the team immensely.

    Makes no difference at this point. Morris can’t be traded because Dolan doesn’t want to trade him. Pills will be gone, Dolan wants to resign him.

    In good news, I won 2 bucks! I guess whoever was playing Portland covered, a couple weeks ago? I need to find an OTB, Turfway is running. On a roll, baby!!

  59. I would have taken Clarke 8th in that scenario, and if the rest of the draft had played out the same way (probably wouldn’t have, but let’s pretend) probably Alexander-Walker 17th. He sucks though.

  60. It’s actually good that are Dallas picks aren’t immediately available because they will be trade assets for longer if some good opportunity comes along.

    I’m fine with that also because I don’t necessarily want to make a pick with them either.

    I think it’s obvious we need a couple of #1 or #2 option star players.

    It’s far from 100% certain that RJ will reach that level and I don’t see anyone else in the pipeline that’s certain either. Maybe Mitch, but he’s very limited right now. Our best hope was Porzingis, but he blew out his ACL, saw all the incompetency in the front office, and ultimately that lead to a trade that netted us almost nothing except those mediocre picks. Lee is off the books this year. Hardaway is overpaid, but he’s no longer considered an albatross or real impediment to their rebuild. He starts. Next year is his last year. That whole episode set us back a couple of years on top of Mills blowing the original 20m cap space on Hardaway/Baker to begin with.

    We have to figure out a way to get star players that are not 3-5 years away from really breaking out or this rebuild is going to be in progress for a very very very long time.

  61. Capela and Chandler out for Houston, their tallest player is Sebolosha at 6’6”

    Porzingis will have a field day, and all will be right in Strat world.

  62. The reason I would trade UP is because we need real impact players. You need those legitimate #1 and #2 option type players to contend.

    Do you have a specific player from the draft in mind? Wiseman may be an impact player, but it’s not a guarantee. I really don’t like anyone else projected in the top 5.

    Our best hope was Porzingis, but he blew out his ACL, saw all the incompetency in the front office

    Would keeping Porzingis/Hardaway/Lee not have set us back further? Keeping (and extending) Porzingis would have set this franchise up for years of disappointment and failure. Thank god our front office (starting with Phil) turned him off to the team.

    We have to figure out a way to get star players that are not 3-5 years away from really breaking out or this rebuild is going to be in progress for a very very very long time

    Again, do you have any one of these star players in mind? What young, in their prime star player are we going to be able to obtain with our assets?

  63. Capela and Chandler out for Houston, their tallest player is Sebolosha at 6’6”

    Porzingis will have a field day, and all will be right in Strat world.

    I’m not so sure how much of a positive that will be for him. He can’t post small players up. That’s a major limitation in his game. You can put smaller quicker defenders on him. That drags him outside defensively and away from his rim protection ability and makes it tougher on him defensively on the perimeter. If a team uses that strategy, the big man is supposed to punish the smaller guy inside so much that they have to abandon that strategy. But he can’t do that, at least yet.

    I do know one thing, he plays much better with Brunson than Doncic on the floor.

    That makes no sense to me because Doncic is a good playmaker and takes the defensive heat away from KP that he had in NY that last year as the #1 option with Hardaway #2 (and often hurt) . Obviously he’s going to get more touches/shots without Doncic on the floor because he becomes the #1 option. He’ll also tend to get more rebounds because Doncic is a bit of a stat stuffer with rebounds (perhaps strategically to lead the break), but it seems Porzingis is also more efficient without Doncic (I haven’t actually seen the data on that just the plus/minus lineup data). Maybe it’s easier for him to get into a rhythm with more shots. Maybe it’s random so far. No idea.

  64. @85

    I haven’t looked at any college ball or stats yet and have no idea where we will be drafting or if anyone will want to trade with us.

    I don’t think having Lee and Hardaway on the books is any worse than the guys we have now. Lee is gone after this year just like our older mercenary players and Hardaway is playing well and is only on for 1 more year after this year like Randle. It set us back originally, but at this stage it would be mostly a non event.

    The real question is what KP becomes next year and in the years to follow. There’s no question his struggles so far this year are related to the layoff. He’s stronger, rebounding better, still blocking and altering shots, moving well, etc… He just can’t throw the ball in the ocean from anywhere, even the FT line. That screams layoff. He’s an injury prone mess, but the talent is still there to be a very good two way player and key piece on a championship team.

  65. Zion 14 points on 9 true shots and a +19.

    He appears to be what we thought he was. Quite a debut so far. I think he will be ROY even if he plays only half the season.

  66. I’m not so sure how much of a positive that will be for him. He can’t post small players up. That’s a major limitation in his game. You can put smaller quicker defenders on him. That drags him outside defensively and away from his rim protection ability and makes it tougher on him defensively on the perimeter. If a team uses that strategy, the big man is supposed to punish the smaller guy inside so much that they have to abandon that strategy. But he can’t do that, at least yet.

    I may have to take some of that back. They are actually posting him up tonight (which Carlisle has been screaming they don’t want to do) and he’s being effective inside tonight. Maybe without Doncic they think that’s OK. On most nights they want KP outside creating space for Doncic to get to the hoop easier.

  67. We’re 47 games into the season so I dunno about the lay-off excuse for KP. You think you’d be getting into a groove after 47 games but then again the guy falls apart every January like clockwork so who can really say. Maybe the rust is gone and he’s doing his annual fall off the cliff thing.

  68. Every time Zion steps on the court it’s a highlight reel waiting to happen. He’s had some crazy finishes at the rim so far, his body control is just unreal.

  69. Nice win by Houston playing the entire game without using anyone taller than like 6’6″. Kristaps tore them up but it didn’t matter

  70. @92

    Personally, I predicted a bad start and thought he’d eventually start rounding into form around now. But then he missed 10 games with right knee soreness and came back with a laughably bad performance (4/17). So who knows.

    He’s been shooting worse in virtually every way despite getting easier looks (FT line too). He rarely gets doubled anymore like he was in NY that last year and Dallas has changed his shot distribution away from long 2s to more 3s. So the conditions and shot selection are in place to be more efficient, but he’s been less efficient than even in his rookie year, let alone his 3rd year when they were doubling him and he was totally lost about how to handle it. I’m not buying he’s worn down. I think an almost 2 year layoff is just much tougher to come back from than the typical long injury and he’s made of glass so he’s always battling injuries. It took Hayward awhile also and this was way longer.

  71. I understand when people have concerns about Zion’s body long-term, but I don’t know of anything quite as foolish as thinking his game would not translate to the NBA. He was born to play basketball. You cannot teach what he just did.

  72. @97

    This was the play I was referring to, the ball is practically behind the board and somehow, while in mid jump, he brings it back and scores with the other hand. It doesn’t look as cool as a huge dunk but it’s such a crazy impressive play.

  73. you know the league is praying that the Pelicans get in the 8th seed…Lebron vs Zion first round…they are drooling for that fantasy…

  74. Capela and Chandler out for Houston, their tallest player is Sebolosha at 6’6”

    Porzingis will have a field day, and all will be right in Strat world.

    Can you imagine Dirk or Ewing or Duncan against that lineup? Any chance they wouldn’t go off for 50+?

    And the final score doesn’t really reflect how badly Dallas got beat. It was 101-85 after 3.

  75. the thing I’ve found the most impressive since first seeing zion at duke is that he doesn’t force the action…he plays a beautiful team game…really high basketball IQ and perfect personality for making his teammates on the court better…

  76. I’ve said before, Zion is Dwayne wade with an extra 100 lbs of muscle.

    His change of direction is elite. His ability to adjust in midair at the rim is elite. He’s something new.

  77. According to the NY Post, Dolan had a conversation with the mother of the teen, who was ousted the other night. Imagine having ten minutes to speak to Jimmy D and try to convince him to fire Mills.

  78. Can you imagine Dirk or Ewing or Duncan against that lineup? Any chance they wouldn’t go off for 50+?

    And the final score doesn’t really reflect how badly Dallas got beat. It was 101-85 after 3.

    so what you are suggesting is that Porzingis is not as good as 3 of the greatest players of all time at age 24 after missing 2 years of prime development time and his team couldn’t beat one of best teams in the west with the #1 option out for the game and another key big man starter out for the season.

    We may finally agree on something.

  79. I think an almost 2 year layoff is just much tougher to come back from than the typical long injury and he’s made of glass so he’s always battling injuries. It took Hayward awhile also and this was way longer.

    You’re really playing mental gymnastics about this timeline. It’s a flat out lie to consistently state he had a two year layoff.

    Porzingis went down on Feb 6 and was practicing with the Mavs 13 months later. And the entire NBA was “laid off” for 10-12 of those months.

    Gordon Hayward was injured in preseason and came back about a year later at the start of a basketball season. The number of months between games isn’t the critical variable here. He went straight from a devastating injury into real live NBA action with a bone that was recently healed. Of course he struggled upon his return

    Porzingis had a much less traumatic injury. And they pampered him like a baby by giving him 6 extra months to rest and recover and build strength. By all accounts he was able to play basketball for Dallas last year, within 13-14 months after his injury. There was no need to hold him back other than to *aid* his recovery and make it *easier* to not struggle like Hayward.

    You keep saying that you can’t figure out this or that about him…. I think the key to the puzzle you’re overlooking is that he’s not good.

    There is literally no evidence that long layoffs take months to recover from. Kevin Durant may never be the same, but I guarantee you it won’t take him to February of 2021 to have a league average TS%. Steph Curry is not going to take until the next ASB to regain his shooting touch. Good players shake rust off pretty quickly. Porzingis isn’t rusty. He’s mediocre.

  80. Every player on earth says that it takes a lot of time both mentally and physically to recover from a significant injury. You have to overcome your fear of reinjuring yourself, you have to get used to playing at real game speed with defenses trying to stop you, and you have to get your conditioning back to elite professional levels. Even many healthy NBA players don’t fully hit stride for about 20 games at the start of a season. There’s shooting data on that. It’s not just about getting shots up in practice.

    Technically you are correct, it wasn’t a 2 year layoff, but he missed a season and a half of basketball, which is much longer than the typical ACL injury. That was due to his unique stature and medical staffs having no historical record for recovery in players like him. So he was treated with extra caution. That, plus the Knicks were tanking and so was Dallas. There was no point to taking any risk.

    I’d be the first to tell you he’s been bad on offense this year. But I’ve seen most of the Mavs games. I can also tell you he is stronger, rebounding better, still defending the rim well, and otherwise the same player he was except that he’s not making shots at the same rate he was for 2 1/2 years prior to the injury – including his rookie year. And that is despite a much better shot distribution away from long 2s and towards more 3s ( check the data) and getting less attention from defenses with Doncic than he was post Melo in his final year.

    There are only 2 major possibilities to explain that.

    1. He’s suddenly a much worse shooter at 24 than he used to be at age 20 even though he was improving.

    2. He hasn’t fully recovered his legs, confidence, accuracy, and fit into what Dallas is doing yet and the progress was interrupted for 10 games by his other glass knee.

    I think the latter is more likely.

    You think the former is more likely.

    I still think the biggest risk is his glass body and not whether he will get his shot back.

  81. One other thing, Curry and Durant are two of the greatest players off all time ( like Dirk, Ewing, and Duncan). No one on earth ever said Porzingis was going to be one of the greatest players or shooters of all time. What people have said is that he has value on both sides of court as a rim protector and floor spacer with enough offensive skills to become a major offensive option on a contending team. Basically an All-Star with a yet to be determined peak and significant injury risk. So if you are Dallas, you sit back, manage his minutes, keep working on his shot and diversity of his offensive game, and pray he holds together.

  82. When he’s shooting around .510 TS% next year I hope you’re ready to eat crow

    It’s certainly possible he will be a worse shooter at age 25 than he was at 20, 21, and 22, despite better coaching, better teammates, a better PG, and better shot selection. But if he is, it will be related to injuries and/or other issues besides the talent he showed at the start. Some players never reach their potential due to injury or off court issues. That’s what NY management (and guys like you are hoping for so you don’t feel badly about the trade). I’d way rather see 5-6 years of dynamic basketball from a Doncic/KP one two punch with Doncic the #1 option on offense and KP providing space for Doncic to use his extraordinary talent to get to the rim and finish and cleaning up his messes near the rim with defensive help while adding in enough as a 2nd option. They are a fun team to watch on offense.

  83. he’s not making shots at the same rate he was for 2 1/2 years prior to the injury – including his rookie year. And that is despite a much better shot distribution away from long 2s and towards more 3s ( check the data)

    The flaw in your thinking is extremely: you’re starting with a conclusion (specifically, that Porzingis is good) and working your way back. That’s why you’re struggling to find answers.

    Take away your assumption that he’s good and just look at what you said with fresh eyes. Then you’ll see that there aren’t “only 2 major possibilities to explain that.” There’s one really simple and obvious one that you’re blocking out:

    Porzingis is shooting more threes this year. Threes are harder to make than twos. The answer that makes much more sense than your explanations is that his numbers are down bc he’s not a good shooter and he’s taking harder shots.

  84. Thing is, even if Porzingis settles into his career numbers and thus gets back in the .530 TS% range, that ain’t exactly a rock solid point for the “he’s a max player” argument.

    We were told he was going to actually, you know, improve on his unexciting production in order to justify that contract. Strat is moving the goalposts to “he will stop completely sucking.”

    We’ve done many, many stupid things, but getting two first round picks for a $31M AAV guy with a .531 career TS% sure as hell isn’t one of them. Poisoning Porzingis’ perception of the Knicks is the only good thing Phil Jackson did for this team.

  85. Porzingis is a major liability against small lineups. He does not have the reactions or lateral quickness to defend the perimeter and last night was a perfect example. He had one block against a team of midgets. Since pretty much any good team in the league can throw a small lineup at him, and since he can be reasonably well defended by guys like Marcus Smart and PJ Tucker, he is going to have a hard time being a net positive on a regular basis unless he starts shooting over 40% from 3.

  86. One other thing, Curry and Durant are two of the greatest players off all time ( like Dirk, Ewing, and Duncan). No one on earth ever said Porzingis was going to be one of the greatest players or shooters of all time.

    But Curry, Durant, and Porzingis are all max players. Via his contract, people *are* saying he’s as good as them, and that’s the problem.

    What people have said is that he has value on both sides of court as a rim protector and floor spacer with enough offensive skills to become a major offensive option on a contending team.

    Yes and most of us agree with that. The issue is most of us know that kind of player with that kind of injury risk isn’t worth half the contract he received.

  87. And during his “layoff” I wonder how hard he worked on improving his 3-point shooting. My guess is that he worked tirelessly on it from very early on in his recovery. Doesn’t seem to be paying off much. He’s not really that good from the FT line (when he gets there, which is pitifully low for a max player.) He does nothing to get teams into foul trouble.

  88. Ok ok ok..I got it! lol
    Disclaimer:
    I had a messy shoulder surgery on Wednesday so the combination of boredom and drugs are driving my ideas. And my lovely PR fiance has been taking advantage of my limitations and pwning me on COD, so depression may be playing a part too lmao

    Payton, Portis, and Ellington for Teague and Chandler Parsons

  89. KP is shooting around 30% from 3 ft out to the 3-point line and takes around 40 % of his shots in that range. That is god-awful.

  90. We’ve done many, many stupid things, but getting two first round picks for a $31M AAV guy with a .531 career TS% sure as hell isn’t one of them. Poisoning Porzingis’ perception of the Knicks is the only good thing Phil Jackson did for this team.

    And you guys can keep saying this and it’s true … but entirely incomplete. The stupid part was not coming close to getting his actual market value in return.

    But Curry, Durant, and Porzingis are all max players. Via his contract, people *are* saying he’s as good as them, and that’s the problem.

    I don’t think this is true either, since there’s a max cap on salaries. I don’t really think people actually believe all max players are equally good; I’ve certainly never seen that seriously alleged by anyone.

  91. My main issue with KP is whether he can handle a 100-game season-playoff grind without breaking down. There is no evidence that he can do that. He already had platelet therapy in his non-surgical knee. If/when that one goes, that’s another 2-3 years of Strat excuse-making at a max salary.

    Cuban ought to look into trading him to another sucker team while folks (especially in the media) still grossly overrate him.

  92. And you guys can keep saying this and it’s true … but entirely incomplete. The stupid part was not coming close to getting his actual market value in return.

    This is theoretically possible, but the trade deadline was looming, he said he would take the QO if not traded, and he was damaged goods. Personally I would have called his bluff and waited for a better deal, but I’m not super upset at the return, especially when Durant was thought by the entire world to be a legit possibility and dumping the stupidly tied-up cap spaced was a prerequisite.

    I don’t think this is true either, since there’s a max cap on salaries. I don’t really think people actually believe all max players are equally good; I’ve certainly never seen that seriously alleged by anyone.

    Agreed, but this is irrelevant. Your theoretical “anyone” expects that a player signed to a max contract is going to put up top-25 or so numbers. You could get close to KP’s current (and historical) production from Luke Kornet.

  93. Right now, Porzingis is the worst type of awful: he’s injury prone, expensive, and not productive. Well maybe not the worst as he could also be old in addition to injury prone, expensive, and not productive.

    If Luka Doncic misses an extended period of time the Mavericks are Knicks West.

  94. On another note, I wonder if Trier will be let out of the doghouse tonight with Payton out. I still think with enough reps he could be as good of a PG as anyone we roll out there. Would rather see him in the g-league than rotting on the bench.

  95. I don’t agree about Trier being a point guard. He’s usually played as a two guard. The few times he been at point it wasn’t good at all. He is finally showing signs of passing the ball, but he still has a long way to go in that area.

  96. @127 mostly agree, it’s more about our current options. With either Frank or Payton, the defense sags off. Even if Trier just does what Frank does to start, at least maybe he can create better spacing. Maybe like an Eric Gordon combo-type guard.

  97. @115

    Porzingis is shooting more threes this year. Threes are harder to make than twos. The answer that makes much more sense than your explanations is that his numbers are down bc he’s not a good shooter and he’s taking harder shots.

    Few things.

    1. His career 3p% was on an upward trend as you expect from a 20 year old that’s maturing and improving. He is now well below both the long term average and any reasonable trend line improvement from his rookie year. That suggests he’s shooting WORSE as more obviously does his declining FT%. He’s substituting 3s for long 2s which impacts his FG% negatively, but would impact his TS% positively compared to the past if he was hitting a more trend line percentage.

    2. He is not taking tougher shots. I assume you never actually watch the Dallas games. He still makes some bad shot decisions, but he’s taking easier shots now on average because he never gets double teamed like his did in his final year in NY where he was forcing a lot of terrible shots as the primary option (a role he was not ready or good enough for).

  98. My main issue with KP is whether he can handle a 100-game season-playoff grind without breaking down. There is no evidence that he can do that. He already had platelet therapy in his non-surgical knee. If/when that one goes, that’s another 2-3 years of Strat excuse-making at a max salary.

    Cuban ought to look into trading him to another sucker team while folks (especially in the media) still grossly overrate him.

    This is a more sensible position.

    Everyone including Cuban was aware of his injury history and the risks about it going forward. Dallas bet that he’d recover 100% from the surgery, that their medical staff could keep him healthy enough to be a productive player worth the salary, and that Carlisle would improve his productivity.

    I don’t know what Carlisle and Cuban think privately now, but overall, their comments have been very positive about his contribution to rim protection and spacing, his ability to change his game and rebound more, and felt he was ahead of their schedule until the recent knee soreness.

    I read everything.

  99. He is not taking tougher shots.

    He is taking more threes, which are inherently harder than twos.

    I’ll grant you that an uncontested three is an easier shot than a two while double teamed but I’m skeptical you have data about Porzingis’ TS% in NY when double teamed v single teamed.

    I would be very surprised if he was double teamed on shot attempts as much as you assume he was. He has always been pretty easy to guard with one defender.

  100. I don’t think this is true either, since there’s a max cap on salaries. I don’t really think people actually believe all max players are equally good; I’ve certainly never seen that seriously alleged by anyone.

    Thank you for understanding.

    Basically you need 2-3 all stars on a team to creating a contending team depending on how good each is. That means you need 60-90 players around the league that can add a lot of wins. The problem is there are only a handful of players like James, Curry, Durant, Kawhi, Giannis, Davis, and a few others. Those guys are worth away more than the max and there is still a shortage of other highly productive difference makers. So those guys also get max contracts and are worth it because you can’t contend without them. Teams like Boston, Toronto, Indiana, and others will pay max salaries to non super elite players hoping one of the younger ones develops further or they get to add an super elite one later. That’s better than sucking every year.

    There are many players in this league that are not super elite superstars that are worth max contracts because of the need and scarcity.

    There are some bad ones too, but not just superstars are worth a max.

  101. It’s certainly possible he will be a worse shooter at age 25 than he was at 20, 21, and 22, despite better coaching, better teammates, a better PG, and better shot selection. But if he is, it will be related to injuries and/or other issues

    My dude, this is some Nostradamus-level B.S. If Porzingis, an abysmal midrange shooter and slightly below league average 3 point shooter already, shoots poorly at 25, it will be from injuries! Can’t be anything else. Couldn’t possibly be that the year he shot .39 from 3 was an outlier and he’s just regressing to his personal mean!

    Here are his career 3 point shooting numbers:
    2015-16: 81-243 (an even .333). League average that year was .354.
    2016-17: 112-314 (.357). League average that year was .358.
    2017-18: 90-228 (39.5). League average that year was .362.
    2019-20: 79-233 (33.9). League average this year is .355.

    The year he shot 39.5 is the outlier, not the other three years. He injured himself on February 6th (according to wikipedia) that year, cutting off most of that month and March.

    In 2015-16, Porzingis shot .432 from the floor in February and .295 from 3pt range. In March, he shot .398 from the floor and .318 from 3 pt range.
    In 2016-17, Porzingis shot .451 from the floor in February and .279 from 3pt range. He only took 10 shots in March, none of which were three pointers.
    In 2017-18, Porzingis played only three games in February, shooting .475 from the floor and .308 from 3pt range. As he injured himself early in February, he didn’t play into March this year.

    Throughout his entire career, Porzingis’ shooting from 3pt range craters towards the end of the season. I don’t see any reason to pretend it would have been otherwise had he played out the 2017-18 season, which means he probably would not have shot .395 on the year had he had another month and a half to chuck up 3 pointers and convert them at the ~.300 mark he shoots that time…

  102. (cont. from 133)
    Porzingis pretty clearly shoots terribly in the last month and half of the season, so it seems fairly obvious to me that his .395 mark that year is being propped up by him not playing that portion of the season. At the time, I hoped that that season was an indicator that his shooting was improving to elite levels. I now am of the opinion that it was a mirage for the reasons I put forth in 133. The other three seasons (including the current one) are Porzingis’ norm, not the outlier year he injured himself. If you keep expecting him to shoot .400 from 3pt range, get ready to see a lot slightly-below league average seasons.

  103. He is taking more threes, which are inherently harder than twos.

    I’ll grant you that an uncontested three is an easier shot than a two while double teamed but I’m skeptical you have data about Porzingis’ TS% in NY when double teamed v single teamed.

    I would be very surprised if he was double teamed on shot attempts as much as you assume he was. He has always been pretty easy to guard with one defender.

    I don’t have the double team data.

    Let’s put it this way, I watched virtually every Knicks game in his final year in NY and I’ve seen most of his games in Dallas. There is a long record on this forum from the NY days of me screaming that he’s getting double teamed and is shooting way too many terrible fade away turn arounds and other terrible shots and has to learn how to handle that situation. I also thought he was beginning to figure it out a little when he got hurt.

    I honestly can’t remember a game where they were doubling him a lot in Dallas. I’m sure it happens from time to time, especially when Doncic is out, but all of my comments (usually to Dallas fans on Twitter)is that I can’t believe his shooting has deteriorated so badly, even from the FT line. He still throws up the occasional head scratching idiotic shot, but not nearly as many.

  104. Z-man, I understand what you mean, and I agree they have guard Trier. However, Kadeem Allen’s shooting is ok too (not as good as Trier, but you probably still have to guard him). Allen’s assists and turnovers are better do personally I would pick him. But it may be a moot point since Frank and Smith will probably share point guard duties.

  105. @133

    I would suggest your interpretation of that data is less likely than mine.

    It’s quite normal for a 20 year old player to slowly improve his 3p% over time. So an up trend in his record is not shocking. However, I agree, it’s perfectly reasonable to think the 39.5% was an upside aberration. So a regression back could be expected. But he’s also shooting worse than his 2nd year and closer to his rookie year. That kind of regression when accompanied by the drop in his FT% and poorer shooting from virtually everywhere else on the court suggests he’s currently below what I would considered a reasonable estimate of his “normalized” 3p% and TS%. In other words, he can’t throw the ball in the ocean from anywhere as well as he used to by any reasonable definition or expectation.

    To me, if he was shooting 37% from 3, close to 80% from the FT line, and had TS% of about 55%-56% given his new shot distribution and better shot availability that would be a fair expectation. It’s one he is not living up to YET.

  106. We aren’t going to settle this debating it here.

    KP is going to settle it on the court next year by either shooting better and staying healthier or breaking down and continuing to suck. IMHO, if he disappoints, it’s way more likely to be related to injuries than inherent talent and skill.

    Have a good day.

  107. Throughout his entire career, Porzingis’ shooting from 3pt range craters towards the end of the season. I don’t see any reason to pretend it would have been otherwise had he played out the 2017-18 season, which means he probably would not have shot .395 on the year had he had another month and a half to chuck up 3 pointers and convert them at the ~.300 mark he shoots that time

    Throughout his career KP has had a series of injuries that have hampered his effectiveness (knees, achilles, elbows etc…) and they usually accumulated as the season wore on. As I keep saying, the issue is injuries. That means getting him stronger, limiting his minutes, improving his body etc…over time. If they can’t do that, that could spell doom. But it hasn’t been a talent or skill issue. It has been an injury, shot selection, etc.. issue.

  108. KP has two big obstacles standing in the way of his earning that contract.

    1. His body. He fatigues easily, he breaks down at the end of every season, his knee is a mess, his center of gravity is weird and he has already suffered a major injury. He’s probably never going to be a horse who can give you 2800 minutes every year.

    2. Intangibles. He’s not a high-IQ player, doesn’t play much of a team game on offense. Is more of a diva type than a hardworking humble type. Takes and misses bad shots a lot. Hasn’t expanded much on his offensive game since coming into the league.

    He’s a tantalizing talent, as he’s the prototype modern big in a lot of ways. Rim protector who shoots threes, that’s a good profile. So far he’s been better in theory than in practice and the sample size is starting to get pretty large.

  109. I can sum up some of this debate up in easier terms.

    Most people here didn’t think much of KP because WS48 and BPM don’t like him much.

    I think those models were underestimating his impact as a rim protector and space providing big man and point to on/off and NBA Real Plus Minus that tend to capture some things that boxscore model do not as evidence that those things matter more than is appreciated by WS48 and BPM.

    Now we are on to a different stage. My opinions about the past are the same and I’m watching the future unfold. Some people here are still defending prior positions (and whether they realize it or not) possibly even rooting for him to not develop into a two way impact player because then they are going to have to suffer with the thought that we only got DSjr and two mediocre picks for him because we didn’t even bother talking to all the teams that were interested.

  110. Of course it’s a talent problem with KP, shot selection is a talent, body control, like we’ve seen with Zion, is a talent. I would argue even availability is a talent. It truly reminds me of the defense of Carmelo Anthony when people kept saying stuff like “he’s one of the most talented offensive players in the league”, or “he’s incredibly skilled”, when that really doesn’t matter for the NBA. In a vacuum a guy like Sebastian Telfair was a crazy basketball talent, but the NBA isn’t about that, it’s about turning that raw skill into on court production consistently.

    I’ve seen people argue shit like oh KP is more talented than a guy like Giannis, who’s biggest asset is his physicality, and that to me is complete bullshit. Separating a metaphysical talent from actual production is how we end up with terrible contracts for players who don’t bring wins to teams, it’s why Andrew Wiggins gets a max deal and Porzingis was considered by the media and casual fans a surefire max guy.

  111. @137 Fair enough. You see an offensive star hampered by constant injuries; I see a mediocre shooter whose perceived potential as a shooter is propped up by one outlier year of shooting. I don’t think KP won’t improve at all. I just think it seems a lot more likely that he shakes out as a league average 3pt shooter, which nowadays isn’t all that impressive for a big man and is certainly not deserving of a max contract. I also happen to think my interpretation is more likely than yours, but hey, who doesn’t believe in their own interpretation?

  112. Wiggins is a bad example because even most in the media hated him when he signed that contract, and has zero trade value at his contract. KP is more like a Harrison Barnes type, imo. Looks good, can play a big role on a winning team but doesn’t really help the team win, overrated unless you look deeper. Aaron Gordon and Zach Lavine are two other examples.

  113. Folks like the trade because KP is a Nov/Dec phenom who’s a poor shooter, makes stupid choices, had a severe injury on top of that, and was about to get massively overpaid. He was talented coming into the league, but his best case now is a little better than average. Pills straight up robbed Dallas. None of that has anything to do with WS/48 or BPM.

    I read everything.

  114. so the combination of boredom and drugs are driving my ideas. And my lovely PR fiance has been taking advantage of my limitations and pwning me on COD, so depression may be playing a part too lmao

    very nice totes :)

    hope your shoulder is feeling better soon…

  115. I think it’s likely that KP’s shooting numbers this year are a bit of an outlier — but I think we can officially put to bed the idea that he’s Dirk 2.0, which is what people were saying about him when he was coming out. He’s unquestionably a better rim protector than Dirk, but is very very far from the elite offensive player Dirk was.

    In fact, if you want almost an exact comparison — it’s Raef Lafrentz, who was a good not great player in the late 2000s. Here is their player comparison through their first 4 seasons: http://bkref.com/tiny/j0aey

    The only real difference? KP is allowed to shoot more.

    Lafrentz is a nice player, but I don’t think anyone was thinking of him as a max player, although he WAS signed to a contract worth about 20% of the cap at that time.

    We’ll never know what his true market value was last year — but at the end of the day, getting 2 first round picks + a ton of salary relief for Raef Lafrentz has to be considered reasonable value when considered just in terms of value for value (and not the disaster that the 366 days after that have been).

  116. Aaron Gordon and Zach Lavine are two other examples.

    I’m not a big Zach Lavine fan, but he’s actually having a pretty good season on a terrible team. TS% .565 (last year .574)

    He doesn’t do much else but score, but he’s not a bad player (esp. compared to our favorite Latvian)

  117. Raef Lafrentz signed one of those mythical 7 year contracts back when they were an actual thing (about as long as the Church of Scientology’s “billion year contract” by basketball terms). I remember plugging his name into the trade machine a few hundred times week, trying to figure out ways to shed Randolph, Curry, Crawford, Jeffries, and Jerome James from the 2010 salary books. Ah, the good old days.

  118. You can rail against the all-in-one metrics all you want, but possessions are your most valuable commodity in this game. Players who use up a lot of possessions and squander a lot of them by missing shots really hurt your chances of winning. Porzingis is a possession waster. He’s reliably going to use a quarter of your possessions with poor efficiency.

    Does he make some of that up on the defensive end? Sure. He’s a legit rim protector and that is valuable. But we’re talking a max contract player here, not a defensive specialist who makes $12M per year or something. $31M AAV for a guy who burns so many possessions is a bad investment.

    The numbers don’t lie: 26.2 USG%, .531 TS% in his career. By comparison Andrew Wiggins’ career numbers are 25.6 USG%, .522 TS%.

  119. Most people here didn’t think much of KP because WS48 and BPM don’t like him much.

    True shooting percentage is not an all-in one0metric. Re-read this thread; has anyone cited WS48, BPM, or any other all-in-one to make the case against Porzingis? No, they have not. They have pointed out that he uses a lot of possessions and doesn’t convert them into points at a very good rate. That’s extremely true now, and was true before he ever got injured.

    You can hide behind the flaws of all-in-ones all you want, but the fact of the matter is if that very basic objective fact doesn’t change, that contract will be an albatross that we were lucky to avoid.

  120. And you guys can keep saying this and it’s true … but entirely incomplete. The stupid part was not coming close to getting his actual market value in return.

    And you keep saying this and then not being able to back it up with a shred of evidence. If we’re talking about the post-ACL tear version of Porzingis, I’ve still seen nothing indicating there was something better out there than two firsts (even if you ignore that the salary dumps were probably worth another first and DSJ still had some value at the time).

  121. Also, when the Melo efficiency arguments were happening, they were about whether a .530 TS% volume scorer could be a superstar in a league that averaged .535. Now we’re talking about whether a .503 shooter is actually a great offensive weapon in a league that averages .560. It’s inane.

  122. There is a long record on this forum from the NY days of me screaming that he’s getting double teamed and is shooting way too many terrible fade away turn arounds and other terrible shots and has to learn how to handle that situation.

    You’ll forgive me if I tell you this is not the kind of data I was looking for.

  123. @ 146, Thanks!

    RE: KP,
    I suddenly am glad that he’s not a Knick. I still think he’s an all star caliber player who will still make the 1st half numbers to garner a spot. But he would have never been what we needed him to be, and that is suddenly clearer than ever to me now. Dallas is perfect for him because they already have a lead dog. KP is the best 2nd option (when healthy) outside of what the LA teams have, and probably Houston…maybe Philly too. But..2and option is his ceiling. His body will never be able to handle it. Hell, it may not even be able to handle being the 2nd option. It’s too early to tell, but we’ll see. He may end up being that bright light who averages 60-65 games a year. He may go out like Yao.

    It’s sad to see because I’m a fan of the game. I bleed NYK, but Magic, AI, KG, Dirk, Lebron, MJ, Nique, Stockton, Kidd, Bird, Pippen, Chuck, Payton, Kemp, Hardaway (Penny and Tim), Zeke, Rodman, Richmond, Dream, Shaq, and TIMMAY are just a few other players who I’ve always loved to see play almost as much as I’ve loved the Knicks over my 42.9 years of life. So witnessing KP’s shortcomings possibly derail what could be an outstanding career really is sad to see

  124. Oh..and @146,
    She talks shit in Spanish and English. DAMMIT SHE’S IN MY HEAD NOW! lolololololololololol

  125. I don’t know who recommended Locast the other day but that is a pretty sweet option for streaming. Picture is great and you can connect right through Roku. I wish it had a navigation option but I can definitely see myself using it for situations where YoutubeTv doesn’t have a channel, especially with Mets and Yankees game on 9 and 11.

    I don’t have anything to add about KP. He’s a good defensive presence but until he gets his TS% up to 57% I don’t know if we have to talk about him.

    Zion’s scorching debut has me thinking about the age-old question first raised for me by David Berri. How soon can you tell what a player is going to be? I remember him airing his opinion that in most cases a very small sample size is predictive. If a guy is good in his first 500 minutes it’s a great sign that he will be good longterm. Other guys will improve over time sure, but if a guy is good from the start it means something. You have to adjust for age too – 18 year olds have more of a tough time but I remember him posting about how even 100 minutes of summer league for more mature guys could give you a pretty strong flavor.

    Zion has played 125 minutes and it’s already abundantly clear he is a first team All NBA talent.

    Mostly what I am driving at though is that I am really worried about RJ. It’s probably good that he has this time off to reset.

    I guess one positive note is that Cam Reddish shot 40% from 3 in January and got his TS% up to 54%. Miracles do happen.

  126. And you keep saying this and then not being able to back it up with a shred of evidence. If we’re talking about the post-ACL tear version of Porzingis, I’ve still seen nothing indicating there was something better out there than two firsts (even if you ignore that the salary dumps were probably worth another first and DSJ still had some value at the time).

    We don’t know what else was out there because Mills/Perry started negotiations with Dallas and the deal went down very quickly. Cuban was quoted saying that the other day. I read an article this morning where he said it was one of the quickest deals he ever did. It was reported that many other teams were interested but none were told he was available. Mills/Perry wanted cap space, DSjr, and picks.

  127. Also, when the Melo efficiency arguments were happening, they were about whether a .530 TS% volume scorer could be a superstar in a league that averaged .535. Now we’re talking about whether a .503 shooter is actually a great offensive weapon in a league that averages .560. It’s inane.

    That a pretty bad mis-characterization of the conversation. First, Melo was older and had already reached his peak.

    The conversation today is whether his current poor shooting reflects the injury/layoff and is temporary or part of his actual long term efficiency.

    If it’s the former, then it’s not very hard to imagine a player that was 22 with a 54% TS% being better than that with the superior shot distribution he has now, playing with Doncic as the #1 option, on a well coached team, and improving from what he was at 22 with the Knicks as he matures and gets stronger.

    If it’s the latter, Dallas is screwed.

  128. True shooting percentage is not an all-in one0metric. Re-read this thread; has anyone cited WS48, BPM, or any other all-in-one to make the case against Porzingis? No, they have not.

    His mediocre TS% was always part of the conversation, but so were the all in one metrics that imo don’t reflect his floor spacing and defensive value adequately. The conversation about his TS% has been beaten to death today and even in my last post.

    According to NBA Adjusted plus minus, as terrible as he had been on offense this year, he’s still a net plus player of 1.41.

    14 Kristaps Porzingis DAL 37 30.5 0.32 1.09 1.41 1.60

  129. I guess one positive note is that Cam Reddish shot 40% from 3 in January and got his TS% up to 54%. Miracles do happen.

    I noted that he was starting to look like a real NBA the other day after watching one game and then quickly scanning the January numbers. Maybe the “experts” weren’t crazy when they thought his season at Duke was hampered by injury and that he has the talent and body to eventually become a solid two way player.

  130. I will eat some humble pie if Reddish ends up an All-Star. I don’t remember him being injured at Duke though, other than at the very end of the year.

  131. Of course it’s a talent problem with KP, shot selection is a talent,

    Shot election is a talent to a point, but it can also be taught and learned quickly to some degree.

    The fact that KP has dramatically lowered his long 2s and increased his 3s this season is because Carlisle told him to. Also, Haralabos Voulgaris (legendary basketball gambler) was a huge Porzingis fan while he was in NY and repeatedly used to say he should shoot more 3s. He works for Dallas now. No doubt he is providing advanced stats data to Cuban and Carlisle on how to maximize the team output using KP and Doncic together. Carlisle has repeatedly said this year they are not looking to maximize individual player metrics. They are trying to maximize team output and their data shows that KP generate tremendous spacing value to other players at the team level. He said that multiple times when asked why their don’t use KP inside more.

  132. I will eat some humble pie if Reddish ends up an All-Star. I don’t remember him being injured at Duke though, other than at the very end of the year.

    I believe he was battling some kind of stomach muscle issue (or something like that) all season but it was not bad enough to keep him out of games. There must still be articles out there somewhere where I read that.

  133. Cuban and Carlisle quotes about the KP deal and his progress: Here are a few, but read the whole article.

    https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/mavericks/2020/01/31/1-year-later-what-the-mavericks-blockbuster-trade-for-kristaps-porzingis-means-now/

    HOUSTON – A year later, what Mavericks owner Mark Cuban most remembers is not so much what happened, but how it unfolded.

    “Fast,” he says. “It was like bam, bam, bam, bam.”

    On that Thursday afternoon of last Jan. 31, relatively speaking, Kristaps Porzingis, Tim Hardaway Jr., Courtney Lee and Trey Burke were Knicks one moment and Mavericks the next.

    Cuban says there have been other quick acquisitions during his 20-year tenure. Two he cites are the draft night of 2004 deal that brought No. 5 pick Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse and Christian Laettner in exchange for Antawn Jamison; and the 2010 acquisition of Tyson Chandler for, essentially, Erick Dampier.

    “There’s been some fast ones,” Cuban says, “but not getting a star.”

    The Mavericks organization categorically remains certain that 7-foot-3, 24-year-old Porzingis is a star, despite inconsistent production and his missing 11 of the team’s 48 games this season, his first back from a torn ACL and 20-month absence from NBA competition.

    “He’s been great,” Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle says. “This has become a bit of a transition year as he gets back on the floor, but he’s doing a great job. He’s worked extremely hard.

    “We traded for him because we know he’s an All-Star-caliber basketball player in this league, and I see that for him in the future.”

  134. I suddenly am glad that he’s not a Knick. I still think he’s an all star caliber player who will still make the 1st half numbers to garner a spot. But he would have never been what we needed him to be, and that is suddenly clearer than ever to me now. Dallas is perfect for him because they already have a lead dog. KP is the best 2nd option (when healthy) outside of what the LA teams have, and probably Houston…maybe Philly too. But..2and option is his ceiling.

    I think that’s a perfectly reasonable position. It may even be generous. Even Phil said he wasn’t a #1 option going into his last year in NY. The thing is, the hardest things in basketball to get are the #1 and #2 option. That’s why teams pay up for #2 options also and that’s why Dallas wanted him even though he was coming off an injury. There’s a shortage of legitimate #1 and #2 options, especially if they can add value in non scoring ways like rim protection.

  135. Man, if Reddish ends up being a better pro than RJB…

    I know; it’s early…

    lmao

  136. n addition to all the idiotic things he discusses he also mentions we are interested in Dennis Schroder. Who wouldn’t be the worst guard on this team but what the hell, why him?

    I’ve never been a fan, but he’s having a career year. That seems like the perfect time for the Knicks to bet on sustained improvement only to watch his efficiency drop like a rock on our mess of a team. And of course, why not add another PG to the mix so we still have several unhappy players even if we trade DSJr.

  137. It’s possible that the Knicks could’ve extracted more value by aggressively shopping Porzingis.

    It’s also possible that this would’ve allowed word of his trade request to get out, and all of our leverage would’ve been tanked. We had RFA rights, but there are all kinds of things players can do as RFAs to present the team with matching rights with a shitty situation e.g. sign a 2 + 1, etc.

    Because we’ll never know what would’ve/could’ve/should’ve happened, “did we get the absolute maximum haul possible for Porzingis?” is simply not a fair or interesting question. There is literally no way to know the answer to this in any trade, ever.

    The relevant question is “did we get good value for Porzingis?” The answer as of now is yes, and then some, and then some more. You can’t look at his numbers and come to any other conclusion if you’re being honest with yourself.

    Could he change that? Of course. But as I mentioned earlier, just getting back to his career figures wouldn’t do it. He would have to make rather significant improvements from that baseline. Because he’s been in the league for a while now and clearly has some issues that aren’t going away, I’m skeptical about the chances of that happening. It’s possible for sure but at the moment if you’re criticizing the trade, you’re doing so in the face of all the available evidence.

  138. Remember the good old days last year when we were dreaming about the possibility of Zion, AD, and Kawhi all in Knicks uniforms? Hahahahahahahaha!

    Fuck off Knicks!

  139. It’s also possible that this would’ve allowed word of his trade request to get out, and all of our leverage would’ve been tanked.

    ESPN has refuted the official story on that (as has KP once did by saying the truth will eventually come out).

    ESPN reported that KP had a meeting with Mills/Perry where they talked about his future and the future of the team. That meeting may not have been highly positive. When KP and his team got home, they found out from their own sources that he was being shopped (turned out to be Dallas). They knew nothing about that and supposedly did not ask to be traded. Given he was being shopped they put together a list of desired destinations (Dallas was not among them), but by the time they had a chance to talk to Mills/Perry the deal was already done. That’s consistent with KP’s initial reaction and what Cuban has said about how fast the deal was done.

    Personally, I don’t think a player asking out (which apparently may not have even happened) would have changed the market value if there were loads teams that said they would have been interested after the fact. (which was also reported).

    The only team that was not interested was the Pelicans. The Knicks were asking for Anthony Davis and the Pelicans wanted more than just KP, but ultimately both the Pelicans and Knicks could not get close because the Pelicans wanted too much and they weren’t sure KP would sign back with them in that market anyway.

  140. The relevant question is “did we get good value for Porzingis?”

    Here’s the deal.

    We got DSjr – who is worth very little right now.

    We got 2 1st round picks whose theoretical value has been falling. That value is probably approximately equal to rotation players of some sort.

    The cap space we gained was worthless because Lee would be coming off the cap this year anyway and Hardaway is one year away and playing better basketball than some of the players we put into that space, including Randle who has a similar price for next year.

    So the question is would you rather have some mediocre assets or KP “off” your books?

    IMO, a lot of NBA teams would still bet on KP, including Dallas. I suspect Dallas is also a lot happier with Hardaway than we are with Randle (and the other stuff we added).

    On this forum, given how people value players, a lot of people are happy to be rid of KP at the max.

    Finally, we still would have had some space even if we didn’t trade KP. That was one of the original plans. You sign a max player first and then add KP. If no max player wanted to play with KP, Mitch, Knox, Frank etc… you could still put something in that space first (like a Morris plus something else).

  141. The thing is, KP on his deal still has market value. He’s a tantalizing shiny object. Dallas could probably get more for him right now than they gave up. Sort of like Melo’s deal…we still got some value for him deep into that contract. So whether KP is actually worth what you can trade him for is irrelevant. Cuban picked him up on the cheap and we sold relatively low.

  142. I should add one more thing.

    Noah is still on the books for a couple of years as a result of all that cap space planning. He would/should be expiring.

  143. So whether KP is actually worth what you can trade him for is irrelevant. Cuban picked him up on the cheap and we sold relatively low.

    100%

    People here are projecting their own valuation of KP onto the rest of the league and assuming that the league agrees with them or that they are right and the league is wrong. The reality is the consensus here may be wrong (underestimating him), and even if it’s right, the league may disagree and he can still be traded in a better deal for Dallas.

    I think I’m somewhere in the middle.

    I’m above the consensus here, but way more worried about injury risk than Cuban and others in the NBA seem to be.

  144. The thing is, KP on his deal still has market value. He’s a tantalizing shiny object. Dallas could probably get more for him right now than they gave up. Sort of like Melo’s deal…we still got some value for him deep into that contract. So whether KP is actually worth what you can trade him for is irrelevant. Cuban picked him up on the cheap and we sold relatively low.

    Are you really sure anyone would now be interested in a 154M player whose “good” knee needs PRP at 24 and chucks with below league average efficiency.

    The actually made a fine deal to trade KP…. the only problem as the idea was to sign real players with the added cap space and once that blew up they pivoted in the wrong direction.

    If they had “rented” KP/THJr and Lee’s cap space for 2 #1 picks once the prime FA’s punted a take of 4 #1’s would have been a king’s ransom for KP for the price of one more tankathon year (which we are getting anyway sans the picks)…..

  145. Are you really sure anyone would now be interested in a 154M player whose “good” knee needs PRP at 24 and chucks with below league average efficiency.

    I’m sure Dallas is happy.

    They keep talking about how much he’s adding to the team with his spacing, rim protection, and improved rebounding and don’t seem to be concerned with his shot yet at all.

  146. If they had “rented” KP/THJr and Lee’s cap space for 2 #1 picks once the prime FA’s punted a take of 4 #1’s would have been a king’s ransom for KP for the price of one more tankathon year (which we are getting anyway sans the picks)…..

    Something this extreme is a lot easier said than done.

    Teams aren’t throwing around 1st rounders for expiring deals like candy unless they are desperate to complete another deal. The reason for giving up a 1st rounder for space is that you are also giving up a terrible contract, which in most cases is a multi year bad contract.

    Think of it like Hardaway.

    We could have moved Hardaway’s multi year bad contract as a stand alone deal, but everyone would have demanded a 1st round pick or maybe even more. So sure, someone could have gotten a 1st rounder, but they also would have been stuck with Hardaway for 2 years instead of being able to use that space productively right away.

    GMs make mistakes and some are smarter than others, but you can’t assume you are just going to run around stealing from everyone.

  147. They keep talking about how much he’s adding to the team with his spacing, rim protection, and improved rebounding and don’t seem to be concerned with his shot yet at all.

    Well, that settles it then.

  148. just think summer is almost here…we get a new GM, President and a head coach.

    Brand hew draft pick and have a ton of cap space we can rent or just take a player like DRuss, Chris Paul, Westbrook, Tobias, KP, Hartford, etc…and get a 1st rounder to take those contracts.

    bet a few teams will see that their NBA title is a pipe dream and get under luxury tax. Just need a GM that can pull it off. Then we go to work with developing young guys with a right development coach.

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