Statistical Analysis. Humor. Knicks.

Monday, March 25, 2019

Knicks Morning News (2019.01.06)

  • [NYDN] Zion Williamson’s absurd 360-degree slam will leave Knicks fans drooling
    (Saturday, January 05, 2019 8:45:00 PM)

    Contain yourselves, Knicks fans.

    Zion Williamson, whose highlights could fill a 10-season show on Netflix, pulled off a ridiculous 360-degree slam during No. 1 Duke’s rout of Clemson on Saturday night.

    Imagine he pulled this off at the Garden a few weeks back?

    Then, the likely No. 1 draft pick…

  • [NYDN] Courtney Lee says he’s a team-first guy and is OK being stuck on the Knicks’ bench
    (Saturday, January 05, 2019 2:10:00 PM)

    Courtney Lee isn’t just publicly accepting his removal from the rotation, he’s defending its reasoning.

    The oldest player on the Knicks roster, who has logged DNPs in four of the last five games, told the Daily News that his benching is best for the organization’s reality.

    “Being in this league…

  • [Sports Illustrated] Enes Kanter Skipping Knicks’ London Trip Amid Ongoing Clash With Turkish President
    (Saturday, January 05, 2019 10:15:25 AM)

    “There’s a chance that I can get killed out there,” Kanter told reporters Friday.

  • [Hoops Rumors] Knicks Notes: Ntilikina, Burke, Jackson, Trier
    (Saturday, January 05, 2019 7:16:18 PM)

    Knicks guard Frank Ntilikina suffered a strained tendon in his left ankle Friday night that could lead to a prolonged absence, writes Marc Berman of The New York Post. X-rays were negative, but Ntilikina was in a walking boot after the game. Berman adds that an MRI is being considered to determine the full extent […]

  • [Newsday] Knicks Notes: Ntilikina, Burke, Jackson, Trier
    (Saturday, January 05, 2019 7:16:18 PM)

    Knicks guard Frank Ntilikina suffered a strained tendon in his left ankle Friday night that could lead to a prolonged absence, writes Marc Berman of The New York Post. X-rays were negative, but Ntilikina was in a walking boot after the game. Berman adds that an MRI is being considered to determine the full extent […]

  • [NYPost] Forgotten European duo forces Knicks to remember their talent
    (Saturday, January 05, 2019 9:29:08 PM)

    LOS ANGELES — Mario Hezonja got playfully bodychecked by Enes Kanter as the Croatian forward conducted his postgame interview with MSG Network’s Rebecca Haarlow on the Staples Center court. It was a giddy Hollywood night after the Knicks (10-29) broke their eight-game losing streak in front of owner James Dolan. Disgruntled Enes Kanter and the…

  • [NYPost] Now it’s Jets’ turn to take whack at sports’ eternal coaching riddle
    (Saturday, January 05, 2019 6:15:16 PM)

    It really would be easy if there were a magic formula, or even if there were a reliable blueprint to follow. But there isn’t. You hire a coach or a manager — any sport, any time — and what you’re really trying to do is draw to an inside straight. You buy your card. And then…

  • [NYPost] Ex-Knicks coach explains Phil Jackson’s low profile since firing
    (Saturday, January 05, 2019 11:07:34 AM)

    LOS ANGELES — Kurt Rambis said there’s a reason former Knicks president Phil Jackson has kept a low profile since getting fired 18 months ago. Rambis, fired as Knicks associate head coach after last season, is back as a Lakers special advisor — a liaison between the coaching staff and front office. Rambis — with…

  • [NYPost] Ntilikina’s ankle-injury limbo opens door for forgotten Knick
    (Saturday, January 05, 2019 10:24:44 AM)

    LOS ANGELES — The last time a young Knicks prospect was seen in a walking boot to protect his left ankle, it cost him nine games. That was Mitchell Robinson, who may return from a sprain against the Trail Blazers on Monday after a three-week absence. Late in the giddy Knicks’ locker room at Staples…

  • [NYTimes] Enes Kanter to Skip Knicks’ Trip to London, Citing Fear of Turkish Retaliation
    (Sunday, January 06, 2019 3:08:37 AM)

    The Turkish player will not travel to Europe to play the Wizards on Jan. 17, saying he fears for his safety because of his public opposition to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey.

  • [NYTimes] On Pro Basketball: Knicks Beat (LeBron-Less) Lakers, So Time to Celebrate ‘Like It’s the Super Bowl’
    (Saturday, January 05, 2019 3:33:40 PM)

    Coach David Fizdale said every win is savored like a championship. But the Lakers were missing three key players, including LeBron James, with injuries.

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks’ Courtney Lee content with bench role, while Hardaway Jr sounds off on losing
    (Saturday, January 05, 2019 6:19:19 PM)

    Courtney Lee is not bothered with the Knicks 2-13 record over their last 15 games and is taking an optimistic approach to the development of the Knicks’ young talent.

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks celebrate win over Lakers with James Dolan ‘like it’s a Super Bowl’
    (Saturday, January 05, 2019 11:36:48 AM)

    The Knicks snapped an eight-game winning streak and had lost 13 of their last 14.

  • [SNY Knicks] Knicks’ Enes Kanter won’t travel to London, fears he could be murdered
    (Saturday, January 05, 2019 9:56:53 AM)

    The Knicks center is a wanted man in Turkey and a trip overseas could be deadly.

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    96 comments on “Knicks Morning News (2019.01.06)

    1. Brian Cronin

      It’s pretty fucked up that Kanter can say something like that and not even sound crazy for saying it. Poor guy.

    2. Farfa

      You know this world is fucked up when you live in a country where a rabid loony is President and still it’s one of the safest places on Earth for free thinkers.

    3. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

      Maybe it’s true that Fizdale’s “?????” offense doesn’t help any, but there’s no way in hell that role is the difference between a 38.8% 2PT, 30% 3PT shooter and even a 25th percentile shooter.

      I agree, but it makes a difference in perception.

      The general perception is that Frank hasn’t improved or that he’s worse.

      My perception is that his handle had improved a bit, his shot has improved a bit, he has more moves around the basket, and he’s stronger.

      That level of improvement doesn’t make him a stud, but if it was reflected in the boxscore people wouldn’t be so down on him. I am speculating that those improvements haven’t shown up yet in the boxscore because he has no defined role, no defined system, playing style of teammates, and noise.

      I’d be willing to bet that if he was playing for the Spurs in a real system with some similarities to the triangle his stats would look better too.

      These are minor problems in boxscore stats you need to see past. Eye test is not perfect either, but it’s supplemental information.

    4. Farfa

      (You can substitute “President” with “Home Secretary” to adapt my former remark to Italy, too)

    5. Farfa

      That level of improvement doesn’t make him a stud, but if it was reflected in the boxscore people wouldn’t be so down on him. I am speculating that those improvements haven’t shown up yet in the boxscore because of no defined role, no defined system, playing style of teammates, and noise. I’d be willing to bet that if he was playing for the Spurs in a real system with some similarities to the triangle his stats would look better too

      I suspect the same, if nothing else by watching how Derrick White and Bryn Forbes have become serviceable players under Pop’s nurturing.

    6. bobneptune

      You know this world is fucked up when you live in a country where a rabid loony is President and still it’s one of the safest places on Earth for free thinkers.

      While I would agree that Trump is a detestable human being and gives ass holes a bad name, I don’t see the “rabid loony” as far as most of his policies are concerned. For the record I haven’t vored in America since I cast a vote for George McGovern in 1972 so take what I say with a grain of salt. I can see why 48% of Americans voted for him an like what he campaigned on and has done policy wise.

      Trump won the election clearly because the democrat party forgot all about their time honored base…. the middle class and lower working man in this country. Trump won because the millions of white lower-middle income workers who voted for Obama in 2008/12 in Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania switched to Trump because he became their champion as the democrat party through environmental regulation made the exploration for fossil fuels and the steel industry in America untenable and refused to stem the flow of very low income workers from flooding over the southern border knee capping the wagers on the lowest earners with excess labor.

      Trump’s policies have been to:
      1…. cut taxes on almost 90% of Americans
      2…. deregulate the economy by fiat
      3… attempt to slow the flow of ultra cheap labor across the southern border.
      4….Get the euro’s to pay a larger share of their defense
      5… successfully re-negotiate NAFTA
      6….Squeeze China’s balls to force them to the negotiating table to negotiate a reasonable trade agreement.
      7…. Stop N.Korea from lobbing missiles over Japan twice a week
      8….. Preside over a booming US Economy
      9 ….remove US forces from the Levant (which used to be a democrat idea since Viet Nam!)

      I’m not so sure what’s so ultra Bat shit insane about these policies. :-)

    7. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

      the vast majority of nba players who turn out to be really good and start out terribly tend to improve quickly. like what fox is doing this year. defined role or not, it’s hard to imagine anyone has watched frank this year without downgrading the odds of really good case outcomes for him.

      the corollary to that is that slow developing useful but merely decent players have very low npv for their draft team. draft value mostly comes from players who can contribute while on rookie scale and/or eventual homeruns who are so good their second deal is a predictable discount even at 25pct max.

      Two points here.

      I love stats, but you aren’t going to make optimal decisions looking at broad categories like “all 2nd year players”. You need to examine these players as individuals and look at what’s holding them back. Is it athleticism, physical maturity and strength, emotional maturity, basketball IQ, partying, work ethic, shot, system etc.. Some of those things will almost inevitably improve. Some of these things will never improve. Some can improve with work and the right development. The idea would be to find players “like Frank” and see if and how much they developed and how long it took.

      Frank looks like a bit of mixed bag there.

      On the second point, you are basically saying what I’ve been saying for the last 2 years. Given that teams are drafting 18-19 year old kids now, these rookie contracts often don’t provide good value because it takes more time for the players to be productive and earn their salary. That doesn’t even count all the inevitable busts. Then when you actually do hit a “potential” home run, you often have to extend him and give out a max before you know he’s going to grow into that contract.

      Over and above the added risk of guessing who the BPA is, the draft is more of a minefield than it used to be at the very time when people are valuing picks higher.

    8. cgreene

      @9 excellent points. A while ago I insinuated that there actually isn’t enough reliable data to understand how to predict the improvement potential of 18-19 year old draftees. Would imagine there is a much higher concentration of them now than ever before and there hasn’t been enough time to measure the career results of this new concentration of young players. Perhaps the leaps of players like Fox are indicative of players who have more star potential but the young players that are just going to reach league average or slightly below or above take longer to mature.

    9. ProjectKnicks

      1…. cut taxes on almost 90% of Americans

      That’s what the deplorables thought, only to discover they are just as fucked as before…lmao

    10. d-mar

      How crazy is is that because Seattle’s kicker got injured, they had to go for 2 points at the end to make the final score 24-22 and destroy all the wagers on the Cowboys -2 1/2?

      (Full disclosure – I bet on the Seahawks, incredibly lucky to win but I’ll take it!)

    11. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      https://www.45chaos.com/

      Such a robust, functional and thought-out platform that 406 people have been fired or resigned in under two years.

      It would take me ten posts to even begin to cover the lies and half-truths in the above post. So I won’t. I will tell you with certainty that the multibillion American manufacturer I work for began laying off workers, despite record sales, due to the Trump tariffs. We expect another round next month. So much for winning, I guess.

      You need to read Woodward’s Fear, bobneptune. If you read that book, trust that a renowned journalist like Woodward will report his sources fairly and accurately, and think that Trump is a competent leader upon completion… well, we don’t live in the same world. At all.

      He’s a child. He doesn’t read. He barely works. He sides with violent dictators over his own intelligence agencies. He runs the presidency like a reality TV show. That’s factorial.

    12. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

      The ironic thing about Trump is that he adopted the left’s position on foreign policy (less foreign involvement) and trade (various forms of protectionism for jobs, although in his case it’s an effort to get people to the table) and the democrats are attacking him for it.

      I recently saw one of the those politcal tests on a forum. At the end, it classified you as left, right, libertarian, conservarive, liberal etc.. based on your policy preferences. Many of the all out Trump supporters were freaking out when their results reflected a lot of left wing policy.

      The reason so many republicans hate Trump is not tbecause he’s a foul mouthed ego maniac with other personality disorders. It’s because he’s been anti free trade, wants have improve relations with Russia, and wants to withdraw from NATO and the middle east.

    13. mase

      The dems lost the election because trump colluded with our enemies in Russia and committed treason to manipulate social media and to sway millennials voting output. He lost the popular vote and still got elected that’s all you need to know.
      Back to the knicks.

      We need to get Parker from Chicago for Timmy and kp and their first this year.

    14. ptmilo

      I love stats, but you aren’t going to make optimal decisions looking at broad categories like “all 2nd year players”. You need to examine these players as individuals and look at what’s holding them back. Is it athleticism, physical maturity and strength, emotional maturity, basketball IQ, partying, work ethic, shot, system etc.. Some of those things will almost inevitably improve. Some of these things will never improve. Some can improve with work and the right development. The idea would be to find players “like Frank” and see if and how much they developed and how long it took.

      Frank looks like a bit of mixed bag there.

      hello sir yes fine thank you anyway you probably will be shocked if not floored to your knees to learn this but i must now report that your highly stylized actuarial table is quite disturbingly imperfect (in fact it is almost always wrong, I am sorry to say, and
      recently was rather egregiously so in the case of my friend mrs billups may she rest in peace when its fancy calculations seemed caught completely unaware of her penchant for jaywalking across federal highways) and in my specific case while i have neither the time or disposition to do your brand of eye blurring busywork i have in earnest consulted my best friend mr laplace who knows far more about me than just my age and gender and various vices and he has concluded with no lack of personal confidence i might add that nuanced fellows like myself are more of “mixed bag” when it comes to lifespan now please pass on a new quote at your convenience

    15. ProjectKnicks

      If you were an actual Knicks fan, you’d know

      Absent knowledge of some silly, secret ‘joke’, it comes across as a simple error borne out of ignorance (based on the context in which it’s used). Kind of lame, not witty – even if done on purpose.

    16. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Google plus search terms equals knowledge all day long and it’s never gonna change.

    17. ProjectKnicks

      Context matters and most times an error is just that, an error. Even when people attempt to disguise it as ‘joke’. That’s factual.

    18. thenoblefacehumper

      That level of improvement doesn’t make him a stud, but if it was reflected in the boxscore people wouldn’t be so down on him. I am speculating that those improvements haven’t shown up yet in the boxscore because he has no defined role, no defined system, playing style of teammates, and noise.

      I’d be willing to bet that if he was playing for the Spurs in a real system with some similarities to the triangle his stats would look better too.

      I suspect the same, if nothing else by watching how Derrick White and Bryn Forbes have become serviceable players under Pop’s nurturing.

      The problem with this counterfactual is that teams with well-defined offensive systems tend to be good teams, and good teams don’t give minutes to players of Frank Ntilikina’s caliber.

      To be clear I believe that Pop and other elite coaches can coax more production out of players, but I think people tend to get some things backwards about that process. They don’t start with complete and utter scrubs and coach them up–they intentionally acquire players who have a baseline of skills they can work with.

      Derrick White had a BPM of 11.9 during his only year of D1 college. Granted he was old as hell after 3 years of D2, but that’s the perfect kind of player to take with the 29th pick no matter who’s picking.

      Bryn Forbes had a 43.5% 3PT% on 749 (!) NCAA 3PT attempts, including shooting 48% during his senior year. His secondary skills were non-existent, but he was a great target with a UDFA signing.

      I still regard the work Pop and the Spurs have done with those guys highly because it’s never a given that anyone will be an NBA rotation player, let alone the 29th overall pick and an undrafted free agent. They could play before they got to San Antonio though.

      The point I’m making in a roundabout way is the Spurs wouldn’t acquire Frank because he has never demonstrated the ability to positively affect the outcome of a basketball game.

    19. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      To be clear I believe that Pop and other elite coaches can coax more production out of players, but I think people tend to get some things backwards about that process. They don’t start with complete and utter scrubs and coach them up–they intentionally acquire players who have a baseline of skills they can work with.

      The headshot. And that’s… [message truncated by server]

    20. Dough Chew [dolan pls]

      it’s been a while since I’ve seen someone that salty they didn’t get the joke, and that’s factorial

    21. JK47

      Absent knowledge of some silly, secret ‘joke’, it comes across as a simple error borne out of ignorance (based on the context in which it’s used). Kind of lame, not witty – even if done on purpose.

      Go eat some Vaseline

    22. Zippy Le Pin

      Totally agree with TNFH’s counter-factorial position on the Spurs. However, what’s interesting to consider is that if we skip entirely the position Frank was taken (which I think we can all agree was at best way, way too early), few if any of us thought he’d be a total scrub. Lots of violent disagreement about what he’d become, but even the pessimists were mostly looking at a bench rotation player capable of doing some lock-down defensive work now and then, and hopefully canning a few threes to keep things honest. And league-wide, there were some raised eyebrows at the slot, but I don’t think anyone thought he couldn’t play in the NBA.

      But now we’re seriously considering his future in Europe, while Derrick White and Bryn Forbes are finding their feet and building on their own modest if useful skill sets. Just makes me wonder.

    23. JK47

      Frank wasn’t a completely unreasonable pick at 9 given where he was listed in most mock drafts. I didn’t hate the pick when it was made.

      That doesn’t mean he’s not a bust.

    24. Donnie Walsh

      he was old as hell after 3 years of D2, but that’s the perfect kind of player to take with the 29th pick

      We’ll never know who the Spurs have liked as lottery picks because they’ve, literally, only made one lottery pick in the last 30 years.

      But I’ll tell you this: any team that bases it’s entire system on the needs of Frank Ntilikina isn’t going to be very good regardless of who’s coaching. (And, like one plus one being two all day long, that my friends is factorial).

    25. Farfa

      Oh yes, I don’t think even Pop could make a rotation player out of Ntilikina now. I suspect that the development process would have been more clear and straightforward with him, though.

      Frank sucks and I suspect that’s not gonna change, but in his defense he’s been yanked around here and there in his 1-1/2 years of Knicks service. I guess that doesn’t help. I also think it doesn’t matter that much, Frank is bad.

    26. JK47

      The Spurs are 30th in the NBA in 3-point attempt rate and yet they’re still 8th in eFG% and 7th in offensive rating. They offset the fact that they’re 30th in 3PA rate by being 1st in 3-point percentage.

      They’re a pretty interesting team.

    27. Z-man

      I, for one, think that Frank can be a reasonably good NBA player, meaning a low-to-mid-7-digit salary role player. He has physical tools, ia smart and coachable, and works really hard. Probably a Langston Galloway/Ish Smith/Justice Winslow level player with more emphasis on D.

      But as I said at draft time, there are probably at least 10 players picked below him that would have been better picks. That has turned out to be a conservative estimate. The good news is that one of them is on our team.

    28. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      they intentionally acquire players who have a vaseline of skills they can eat with.

      Holy shit ahahahaha

    29. Z-man

      I do think that much of Frank’s time up here has been mostly wasted by trying to turn him into a PG, a position for which he was never suited and never will be. People here have rationalized nine ways till Sunday to make a case for it, but it was so freaking obvious. Now that he’s settling in to a more suitable role (defensive combo guard off the bench, best playing next to a volume scorer or three) maybe he can start to develop organically.

    30. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Don’t do Frank dirty like that.

      If this were the final year of Frank’s contract, I would not offer him another above whatever the minimum would be for a two-year veteran, and maybe with a second year team option. Maybe multiple team options. But anything above that, he’s out the door. But because he is still under contract for two years, and the Knicks suck, I say let him fully earn the bust title.

    31. thenoblefacehumper

      they intentionally acquire players who have a vaseline of skills they can eat with.

      *Kenny Smith voice*

      It’s over, ladies and gentlemen.

    32. BigBlueAL

      I still remember how excited Marbury was during an interview right after the Knicks traded for Zach Randolph, praising Isiah left and right. It took 5 games into that season for Marbury and Isiah to hate each other and derail the season lol. At least it lead to Isiah finally getting fired at the end of that season.

    33. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      Apparently teams have called the Knicks about Kanter and they’ve been listening. Hopefully he’s off the team by the end of the month, and maybe we’ll get a 2nd round pick out of it. As long as we don’t take back salary, he can get lost. Sucks what’s going on between him and the Turkish government, though.

    34. thenoblefacehumper

      The Kanter rumor comes from a reliable source in Mike Vorkunov, but as someone who has spent more time on the trade machine than I care to admit I just can’t see a team who would trade for him using only expirings. I’d have no problem trading him for non-expiring money as long as we got worthwhile assets but Mills/Perry seem pretty intent on having max space this offseason.

    35. Farfa

      If I had to guess, the teams interested might be Washington (a swap for Mahinmi plus a second rounder), Memphis (Parsons and something for Kanter and Frank) and Phoenix (Anderson and something for Kanter and Frank). I wouldn’t do any of those deals (maybe the Washington one if they were willing to part with a conditional first? But why should they).

    36. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

      hello sir yes fine thank you anyway you probably will be shocked if not floored to your knees to learn this but i must now report that your highly stylized actuarial table is quite disturbingly imperfect (in fact it is almost always wrong),

      I can tell you from gambling experience (successful I might add) that nothing is perfect in this world. But I do know, I never made a nickel looking at generalized data. I found value by digging further and understanding specific situations.

      You may not want to put the time and energy into defining the player attributes and profiles correctly so they can be studied the right way. Neither do I. I don’t get paid for this.

      I’d rather use observation and common sense (like if you have a pot problem, bad work ethic, and low IQ I’m going to lower your chances of getting a lot better relative to a guy that lacks strength, maturity and confidence, but is younger, has a strong work ethic, good athleticism, and high basketball IQ)

      Some profile samples may be too small to draw any confident conclusions no matter what.

      However, generalized data is not going to be very predictive when attributes vary widely and some attributes are more or less likely to make you successful and lead to improvement. The more specific you get the more predictive the profile as long as sample size is adequate. That’s just a fact.

    37. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      hello sir yes fine thank you anyway you probably will be shocked if not floored to your knees to learn this but i must now report that your highly stylized actuarial table is quite disturbingly imperfect (in fact it is almost always wrong, I am sorry to say, and
      recently was rather egregiously so in the case of my friend mrs billups may she rest in peace when its fancy calculations seemed caught completely unaware of her penchant for jaywalking across federal highways) and in my specific case while i have neither the time or disposition to do your brand of eye blurring busywork i have in earnest consulted my best friend mr laplace who knows far more about me than just my age and gender and various vices and he has concluded with no lack of personal confidence i might add that nuanced fellows like myself are more of “mixed bag” when it comes to lifespan now please pass on a new quote at your convenience

      ptmilo channeling JR-era William Gaddis right now

    38. Farfa

      ptmilo this season is the most consistently on fire Knicks-related person since Jeremy Lin in February 2012

    39. Farfa

      By the way I searched Linsanity on Google and it sent me to the All-Star voting page.

      I voted for every Knick save Kanter, Trey, THJ and Lance.

      I PLACED A VOTE FOR MARIO YOU GUYS

    40. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

      But as I said at draft time, there are probably at least 10 players picked below him that would have been better picks.

      You can find guys all over the lottery that ultimately don’t turn out as well as a bunch of players picked below them. That does not mean it was obvious beforehand or that if I am right one year I’m going to right consistently enough year after year to outperform the market.

      I hate to be in the position of defending Frank all the time because before the draft I spent a couple weeks arguing the pick was nuts because he was a zero on offense in France. It wasn’t until the end I softened on the idea. Then he grew on me so now I am biased and hoping he gets better.

      All that said, people are writing him off while he’s still a very immature 20 year old that’s been used poorly. It was known before he was selected that he was a project coming in.

      As soon as we drafted him the Knicks haters in the press were saying he was a pretty good pick given what was available at the time but knowing the Knicks they wouldn’t have the patience to develop him.

      I guess they were right.

      Maybe the kid belongs in San Antonio where they’ll use his defense, unselfishness, and passing skills in an effective way and get him shots than he can knock down with reasonable efficiency instead of asking him to be aggressive and create off the dribble when that’s not what he is.

    41. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Maybe the kid belongs in San Antonio where they’ll use his defense, unselfishness, passing skills, in an effective way and get him shots than he can knock down with reasonable efficiency instead of asking him to be aggressive and create off the dribble when that’s not what he is.

      This is just one piece of small-sample data, but he’s made just one of twelve corner threes this year, and 10 of 36 for his career. It’s not like he’s some kind of knockdown shooter when he’s got a high-value shot attempt. He’s a garbage offensive player in virtually every way.

    42. The Honorable Cock Jowles

      Wiggins has 18 points on 12 FGA and 4 FTA. Who wants to bet he ends up below .500 TS% by the time the game’s over?

    43. BigBlueAL

      I would love to know why people think Frank has great passing skills. For his career his Ast% and TO% are almost identical. He makes Mudiay look like Chris Paul.

    44. Donnie Walsh

      I’d rather use observation and common sense (like if you have a pot problem, bad work ethic, and low IQ I’m going to lower your chances of getting a lot better relative to a guy that lacks strength, maturity and confidence

      Strat’s looking at you, Balkman!

    45. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

      This is just one piece of small-sample data, but he’s made just one of twelve corner threes this year, and 10 of 36 for his career. It’s not like he’s some kind of knockdown shooter when he’s got a high-value shot attempt. He’s a garbage offensive player in virtually every way.

      This is one of those glass half full or glass half empty stats.

      Less than a week ago I argued that he was pretty good from the corner last year but was terrible so far this year. That could mean multiple things, but one of them is that his overall 3p% this year may be more noisy than people realize. If he should he start hitting 3s from the corner at a more reasonable rate and sustain the rest, we might see the kind of improvement overall that would be encouraging.

      Besides that, when he got off to that hot start from 3 in those first few games I immediately said his percentage was going to fall because they were going under the pick on him. He’s still getting open shots, but with the “get more aggressive” mantra, he’s now taking more bad shots than he used to. He’s still scared and passes on some, but there are more occasions now when he puts up what I would consider a bad shot than he used to. He hasn’t figured it out yet.

    46. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

      Strat’s looking at you, Balkman!

      lmao.

      That’s a good example.

    47. Brian Cronin

      The Kanter rumor comes from a reliable source in Mike Vorkunov, but as someone who has spent more time on the trade machine than I care to admit I just can’t see a team who would trade for him using only expirings. I’d have no problem trading him for non-expiring money as long as we got worthwhile assets but Mills/Perry seem pretty intent on having max space this offseason.

      Yeah, I’d also obviously take anything another team offered if there were attached to just expirings and I, personally, would take longer contracts if they added assets (I don’t think Mills would, but I would), but since Mills isn’t taking on 2020 salary for Kanter, who in the fuck is offering expirings plus assets for Enes fucking Kanter? How could that possibly work anywhere? I guess GarPax might be stupid enough to trade Parker and a second for Kanter? Maybe? I just can’t see it. I’d love it if it were to happen, but I don’t see it anywhere.

    48. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

      I would love to know why people think Frank has great passing skills.

      I haven’t heard anyone say he has “great” passing skills. IMO, he has good passing skills. He’s not going to get as many assists as a pass first PG because he lacks the 1st step speed and handle to break down offenses and create more chances to get an assist. However, if he’s on a pass first team with a lot of ball and player movement his passing skills would be a plus. The more I think about it the more I think he belongs on a team like the Spurs or Celtics.

    49. Stratomatic "I'm tired of the Knicks paying lip service to DEFENSE. Get defenders & two-way players. Then play them!

      If you were convinced that none of the star free agents was going to sign in NY and you were going to wind up trying to roll the cap space over with short term contracts anyway, it might be worthwhile to consider taking on a longer contract if it came with an asset, but it depends on how long and what asset.

      I think they are going to wind up signing 1-2 of our guys and then add some filler 1 year deals trying to roll the rest over.

    50. ClashFan

      I’m as hopeful as anyone about Frank, but way more so as a 3 and d wing than as a 1. Sure, keep playing him at the one as much as possible with the current crew, but he really needs to play as a 2/3 and improve his shooting. His shooting doesn’t look to me like it has improved one iota this year. His handle does seem a bit better, but it is still not good.

      I keep pulling for him b/c, as atrocious as his offense has been, he seems like the best/only defender out on the perimeter. Yes, he does get beaten of the dribble some, but he is a pretty smart defender and does try to switch, recover, etc. He can switch on to bigger guys, too, and does not back off.

      Too many years of Calderon, Rose, and now Mudiay as guys who get beat and just stop or float around mindlessly after getting beaten. Knox and Trier are pretty awful, too, most of the time. THJ? Ugh.

      Fiz claims he has “fixed” Mudiay. Okay, hoss, now “fix” Frank!

    51. kevin5318

      I think Franks a good passer but he never gets into the paint enough to capitalize on it.

      Also his assist numbers are down since we play Fiz’s ISO offense this this year.

    52. BigBlueAL

      Last year Frank’s Ast% was 20% and TO% was 19.8%. This year it’s 16.9% and 16.4% despite his USG rate being almost identical. We crap on Mudiay all the time but for as bad as he was as a Knick last season his AST and TO%’s were 25 and 15% and this season it’s 24.9 and 12.4% and his USG rate this year is only slightly higher.

      Mudiay is a MUCH better passer and ball handler than Frank.

    53. ptmilo

      I can tell you from gambling experience (successful I might add) that nothing is perfect in this world. But I do know, I never made a nickel looking at generalized data. I found value by digging further and understanding specific situations.

      hard to imagine, i know, but you’re not the only degenerate to have covered the psychic hotline bills with some other sucker’s paycheck. maybe it would help to imagine everyone in their underwear but also at an otb just across from the cme. because as it is the whole malcolm gladwell dumbing it the rest of the way down for ‘what do mom and dad do’ day shtick is gumming the tracks.

      it’s hard to beat most markets with obvious empirics, but a player’s future success is not a handicapped price, it’s a feature of the physical world. and as malcolm might say but for money and with a shit ton of jargon, by far the bigger mistake people make in making guesses about the physical world comes from overestimating their vaguely specified case rate and the value of their intuitions while subordinating the well articulated but highly flawed base rate. “common sense” can be composed of intuitions that improve on some stylized model, or it can be a great excuse to totally just make shit up and discard the very narrow bit of unbiased high level information we actually have.

      You may not want to put the time and energy into defining the player attributes and profiles correctly so they can be studied the right way. Neither do I. I don’t get paid for this.
      i’m not trying to be the opinion police here. if you wanna say you don’t buy the relevance of some well specified but highly general population compared to your gut feeling or common sense that is your right as an internetican. just say it as the grandpa on the couch “that ain’t how it works in the real world” blurt that it is without the epistemology 101 sermon. nobody anywhere thinks a half assed basketball reference longitudinal study is dispositive.

    54. ess-dog

      If Philly wants rebounding, Chandler and Muscala for Enes works. Maybe we get a 2nd too. The Clippers could do a deal if they were inclined to.

      Also, what about Timmy and Lance for Parsons? None of these move the needle very much, though (i.e. rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic).

    55. Knick fan not in NJ who thinks our rookies will lead us to a lousy lottery pick in 2019

      This is just one piece of small-sample data, but he’s made just one of twelve corner threes this year, and 10 of 36 for his career. It’s not like he’s some kind of knockdown shooter when he’s got a high-value shot attempt. He’s a garbage offensive player in virtually every way.

      So if you went to a statistician and asked what is the statistical significance of 10 for 36 assuming a Poisson distribution, he couldn’t confidently say whether that meant Ntilikina was a 15% or a 40% three point shooter. There is just too little data. This is the case for many, many decisions about whether someone is a good shooter or not and is why you need other observations too. Since he was apparently 9 of 24 corner threes in his first year, does that mean he used to be good at them and now is bad? I doubt it. I think the difference is mostly noise. But I do believe that, as Stratomatic suggested, he may be defended a little differently than before and taking different shots. He may also feel more pressure to take shots this year and so is taking some he didn’t take the first year. It’s part of his development.

    56. nicos

      Frank’s 80 for 257 from three for his NBA career- that means he’s been a poor three point shooter. Might he get better? Sure, but to throw up your hands and say you can’t really tell if he’s a good or bad 3 point shooter through his first 2500 NBA minutes? Come on- he’s stunk.

    57. Bruno Almeida

      I mean, you could make a case that a playoff hopeful team that only beats the Lakers without LeBron by 20 should change coaches, for sure.

      I’m just puzzled as to why they didn’t do it at the time of the Butler fiasco, but I guess it’s just Wolves things.

    58. vincoug

      Thibodeau wasn’t just the coach he was also President of the team. With Minnesota firing Thibs that means Knicks legend Scott Layden is running the team.

    59. DRed

      Actually, looking at the trade machine there’s not a whole lot there unless they want to trade us Taj Gibson for one of our overpaid wings for some reason.

    60. The Glass Half Rebuilt

      Scott Layden owes the Knicks a favor after he ruined the team all those years ago. Get him on the phone and make him take Courtney Lee for Bayless and Tolliver or something.

    61. Brian Cronin

      It’s funny, in the history of my online fandom of the Knicks, there has only been one GM where no one even bothered defending him while he was the GM, and that was Scott Layden (everyone else, even Isiah, had their share of defenders here. Typically it’s not until they’re on the way out that it’s “Oh yeah, that guy was terrible”).

    62. Knick fan not in NJ who thinks our rookies will lead us to a lousy lottery pick in 2019

      Frank’s 80 for 257 from three for his NBA career- that means he’s been a poor three point shooter.

      I was only commenting on the statistics for corner threes that were quoted above, not the overall distribution. It’s been a long time since I have done statistics, but I did some for this case. I used the normal approximation of the binomial distribution which is considered ok for sample sizes greater than about 15. For the cited corner three statistics, Ntilikina hit 28% of them and the 95% confidence interval is 10% to 46% as his true rate. You can see from this interval that you can’t draw conclusions about his corner three point shooting from 24 attempts. For the the 80 of 257 that you cite, that is a success rate of 31% with a 95% confidence interval of 25% to 37%. The actual results are indeed poor, because 31% is the best estimate we have of his true make rate and that is not a good result, but you can see the larger sample size is only enough to compute that he isn’t a great shooter so far. It’s not enough to conclude that he is really lousy at it, even with data from 257 attempts. And corner threes should be easier to make, but his completion rate is worse than his overall completion rate. I think that is just noise in the data.

    63. Knick fan not in NJ who thinks our rookies will lead us to a lousy lottery pick in 2019

      After the Butler fiasco it was completely predictable that Thibs would be fired as GM and maybe as coach too. In fact, on September 24, I predicted here that this would happen within three months. It took three months and two weeks, so I was wrong about the timing. It’s kind of a shame for Minnesota. He was probably a good coach for them, but a lousy GM. He was clearly fired for his GM performance instead of his coaching performance. If they had a good GM, they probably would have listened to Butler in the first place and paid him instead of Wiggins.

      Scott Layden bears part of the blame for this too. I find it hard to believe he will stay on in charge as GM. The riskier part of my prediction about Minnesota was suggesting that Billups might be hired. That is still possible. Whatever they do for GM, I think they may want to do it in the next couple of weeks, so that if they get a new GM, they get him in time to do something by the NBA trade deadline. Otherwise they might as well wait until the off season is near.

    64. Knick fan not in NJ who thinks our rookies will lead us to a lousy lottery pick in 2019

      Zach Lowe commented on the horrible state of the Knick’s defense in his latest 1o things column. He is right on the money. Here is part of what he wrote:

      New York’s centers — Enes Kanter and the scorching Luke Kornet — need airtight perimeter defense in front of them, and New York’s guards and wings, umm, don’t provide that. Frank Ntilikina has slipped a hair on that end. Damyean Dotson can get out of whack away from the ball. Courtney Lee has barely played. The rest disintegrate at the mere sight of a pick.

    65. Bruno Almeida

      Layden has got to feel some guilt over what he’s done with the Knicks right? He’s got to be available to help us a bit.

    66. Donnie Walsh

      It’s funny, in the history of my online fandom of the Knicks, there has only been one GM where no one even bothered defending him while he was the GM, and that was Scott Layden

      There’s no defending Layden’s tenure in NY, but he is credited with drafting Stockton and Malone in Utah, and he assisted the Spurs reign of dominance, so it’s possible that either Layden is incompetent and got lucky in Utah and San Antonio, or Layden is talented but worked for an incompetent owner in New York. Given what we know now, I’ll bet the latter and defend Layden to you!

    67. Donnie Walsh

      He did the Bargs trade, so, well…

      Again, if everybody that works here looks incompetent, but they look competent at all the other places they work, it’s probably safe to say that the are, in fact, competent, and that anybody will unltimately look incompetent here. Even guys that are in the hall fame, and have won at every level, and have more NBA championship rings than anybody on earth.

      There’s a dude that sits above all these guys and that guy is to blame.

    68. BigBlueAL

      From all reports Grunwald was against the trade but played the good soldier which is why his firing right before training camp was so odd.

    69. Grocer

      For the cited corner three statistics, Ntilikina hit 28% of them and the 95% confidence interval is 10% to 46% as his true rate.

      It’s obvious that Frank is deeply uncomfortable being the guy who’s taking the shot and until he gets over that he’s ging to be a super shitty shooter. He may well still be shit after getting over it, he may never get over it. But it doesn’t really matter either way. Same deal for his handle. He’s clearly improved his skill level over last year but he is so damn nervous that the results are even worse. All he needed to do was develop skill and body and hope that led to consistency. But somebody lit a fire under his ass and it’s got him scared shitless that he’s going to fail. He needs to accept the hopelessness and inevitable decay of life and stop giving a shit.

    70. Knick fan not in NJ who thinks our rookies will lead us to a lousy lottery pick in 2019

      Maybe someone could teach Frank about global warming

    71. TheOakmanCometh

      Layden was the first of our many horrible GMs. He started out downfall with the Ewing trade, Houston extension, garbage draft picks, and taking on “high character” players who make lots of money but couldn’t actually play basketball ( Eisley, Anderson, etc). I actually think he was a worse GM than Isiah, though a better human being.

      Anyway, he owes us one big time. Towns for THJ + Enes.

    72. nicos

      Towns for THJ + Enes

      More likely KP for Wiggins in a sign and trade. I can hear it now-“Wiggins we’re going to get to work, we’re going to get you right.”

    73. Knick fan not in NJ who thinks our rookies will lead us to a lousy lottery pick in 2019

      That is a scary thought.

    74. rama, mayor of Realitytown

      He needs to accept the hopelessness and inevitable decay of life and stop giving a shit.

      I’m working on that myself…

    75. Brian Cronin

      From all reports Grunwald was against the trade but played the good soldier which is why his firing right before training camp was so odd.

      For his sake, hopefully he was against the trade!

    76. Brian Cronin

      Layden was the first of our many horrible GMs. He started out downfall with the Ewing trade, Houston extension, garbage draft picks, and taking on “high character” players who make lots of money but couldn’t actually play basketball ( Eisley, Anderson, etc). I actually think he was a worse GM than Isiah, though a better human being.

      The Glen Rice for Eisley and Shandon Anderson trade has to be up there with one of the dumbest Knicks transactions ever. In the long run, it obviously was a relatively minor transaction, and it didn’t cost them a draft pick or anything like that, but the trade involved not only trading for two mediocre players in Eisley and Anderson who didn’t help the Knicks much, but also extending Anderson for six years for 40.7 million! That would be too much money for a guy like Shandon Anderson today, let alone 18 years ago! It was just so insane that there was never a real defense of the deal anywhere. Most other terrible Knick deals at least had some defenders. That deal was unique in that regard, which made it stand out (man, you wouldn’t believe how many people defended the Eddy Curry deal when it happened).

      I’ll give Anderson this much, though, at least he ended up with a ring with Miami (he even played some minutes in the NBA Finals). In what would have been the final year of his original Knick deal, after they cut him with three years and $23 million left on his contract! Dolan could afford to eat that money then, but Phil felt he needed to trade a second rounder to avoid Dolan eating the $3 million left on Travis Outlaw’s contract? Man, Knick GMs are so, so bad.

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