Knicks Morning News (2018.06.21)

Bamba is the only guy who is virtually GUARANTEED to maintain his trade value based on who he is right now. Doncic may turn out to be a huge liability on defense and his athleticism overall might not translate to stardom. Ayton will be gone for sure, so he’s not even worth discussing, but if he’s not as good on O as advertised, he is never going to be a DPOY candidate. JJJ has a fugly offensive game right now and is all upside. Bagley migt be the safest bet to be a stud two-way player, but not sure if his perimeter game on either end is real.

At worst, Bamba projects to be Dikembe Motombo with a bit more offense, and that’s an unbelievably high floor. He has multiple DPOYs written all over him. He will be worth multiple #1 picks in the trade market for a long, long time. If he and KP seem redundant, you could trade either one and get a stud at a different position or a couple of lottery picks. So while I’d be thrilled if we trade up and snag Doncic, or wound up with Bagley (I really, really don’t like JJJ!) I would definitely be a bit more nervous about him being the real deal than if we pick Bamba.

Givony writes that Memphis is very interested in Carter. If so, they might judge that “Carter + Established Player + shedding Parsons > JJJ. That seems reasonable to me.

– If Orlando likes JJJ or Bamba more than Carter, they trade up to take on of them and Carter would be there at #6 for Grizz.
Memphis believes Carter + Fournier + no Parsons > JJJ

– Carter would be gone if Clips trade up but a package of Harris and two picks would be very strong even if they didn’t take Parsons.

– I have no idea why Mavs would want to move up 1 slot unless they want the player they think Grizz would choose at #4 if there’s no trade-up or they’re afraid of Orlando or some other team leapfrogging them if they don’t trade up.

– Chicago could have 25m in free cap so they could take Parson’s contract into that cap. I guess they’d offer Portis and maybe even include Felicio.

So a lot depends on what players some of these teams are willing to give up tonight. I would think we have a decent chance offering something like #9/#36/THJ/Troy/5m or even #9/#36/THJ/Courtney/Troy/5m for #4/Parsons/McLemore. Problem is there’s a greater chance of Carter not being there at #9 versus where Orlando and Chicago are picking.

Bagley migt be the safest bet to be a stud two-way player, but not sure if his perimeter game on either end is real.

No Bags is not that. He’s a terrible defender, Amare-like. He’d have to play the 5 to be most effective and that would be a disaster. ESPN Analytics popped out that JJJ is the player in the draft most likely to end up a starter. His defense and outside shooting give him a high floor – the debate is more his ceiling tied to his offense. Bamba is not a sure thing. He’s often invisible for long stretches and his anticipation/awareness/motor are all questionable. There’s some debate about his ability to switch and guard in space. It’s not clear whether his outside shot is real or just another “empty gym” kind of situation.

FWIW I think the early buzzin Dallas and Memphis was about Dallas adding 4 not swapping picks. Either to take a proper salary dump and for a player of actual value (Barnes, if you subscribe to the idea he is one).

Hard to see what moves the needle for a 4-5 swap when there’s so much uncertainty about who falls where. Maybe if Dallas is super high on Doncic AND Memphis isn’t…

Ugh I read another mock with us taking Knox (with Trae still on the board)

Please let this Knox talk be some 3D chess move.

Woj apparently just said on TV that it’s most likely that Knicks stay at #9

DX/ESPN also has us taking Landry Shamet in the 2nd round — notable guys still left after that mock pick = Khyri Thomas, Jevon Carter, Mitchell Robinson, Jarred Vanderbilt, Shake Milton, Justin Jackson.

I’m sort of into Shamet – elite shooter, probably a bench shooter with some secondary ballhandling skills. Probably a negative on defense. I think I’d prob rather have Khyri Thomas or take a flyer on Mitchell Robinson (who prob won’t be there), but hey, shooting is good.

One thing I can compliment Mills/Perry for — I literally have no idea what they are thinking at this point. At one point or another we’ve apparently had the hots for Carter, Trae Young, Mikal, Bamba, Knox, Lonnie Walker, and Sexton. We’ve explored trading up and have worked out a bunch of guys that suggest maybe we’d trade down. Good to be unpredictable.

One thing I can compliment Mills/Perry for — I literally have no idea what they are thinking at this point. At one point or another we’ve apparently had the hots for Carter, Trae Young, Mikal, Bamba, Knox, Lonnie Walker, and Sexton. We’ve explored trading up and have worked out a bunch of guys that suggest maybe we’d trade down. Good to be unpredictable.

I wonder if the leak that we’re taking Mikal might have been to open up the possibility of a 76er trade down if 76ers really want Mikal. Maybe we could get the #10 and #26 if we bluff them.

this is my final board… and yea i feel anxious about this draft but ive felt that way for every draft we have had…

1. doncic
2. carter
3. jackson
4. young
5. gilgeous-alexander
6. troy brown
7. mikal bridges
8. bamba
9. bagley
10. ayton
11. porter
12. miles bridges
13. zhaire smith
14. musa
15. robert williams

theres some interesting names beyond this and its a pretty solid draft all around…

aside from doncic.. carter and jackson its a bit of a crapshoot afterwards though… i could be wrong on bagley and ayton but its even tougher in todays nba to survive as a big without defensive ability which ups their risk profile significantly….

SGA and brown are pretty underrated as ive contended for most of the season… they will be there at 9 but we probably wont be targeting them which is a huge shame…

#18
Interesting…

I assume this is a best available player list. What did you do to come up with it?

There is no way that Mo Bamba’s floor is 8-Time All-Star, 4-Time Defensive Player of the Year NBA Hall of Famer Dikembe Mutombo.

I’m pro-Bamba. I like him a lot, but come on.

OK….OK…. his floor is Manute Bol 🙂

Sign me up for 7 blocks per 36 minutes

@20 – I soft benchmark by position using weiland’s numbers…. and then i adjust for age in certain categories… a lot of the time I just take freshman year numbers for upper classman or career numbers which I started doing this year… and then I add some personal opinion along the edges but that’s generally informed by level of comp and historical comparables and less on how they look in games…

It’s not very precise and i don’t want it to be… since adding more things brings in more noise which I think is a failure in most draft models… the samples are just too small and diverse… what’s more important is identifying who is obviously really good… and if you’re really good you generally perform across all statistical categories at a young age…. and the better you are the less risk you have…

for guys who come up short in one or two areas… there’s some risk analysis involved… like young fell short in 2p efficiency but his volume was crazy and his ftr(which i don’t model but i do consider) was equally as crazy considering how many 3’s he took… so the risk would normally be high but it’s probably just moderate maybe even low…

with ayton and bagley the defensive numbers are a huge concern since these tend to be static starting at a young age.. if they wind up putting up respectable numbers in steals and blocks their rookie year though… which probably means it was artificially depressed in college.. then they could become very very good… but the risk is much higher since that is much less likelihood of happening in what are very important areas for a big man… but they could also succeed being all offense zero defense type of bigs like kevin love and brad daugherty… but the threshold for offensive output is very very high if they are going to succeed like that…

Better SGA or Zhaire than Knox as far as the guys outside the consensus top 9 go. Based on WP sit at 9 and pick seems hard to really screw up here.

I think we need to get Kevin Knox, he fits the modern NBA and can one day defend all 5 positions. I’m kinda sold on him, this is a league of wings. Freaking Gobert, Capela got played off the floor. You draft a PG only if you’re certain to get a superstar, otherwise you just have to go with multipositional wings. Knicks will fuck this up anyways, passing on Knox could end up being one of those typical Knicksian draft blunders.

I guess an SGA/Frank spiderman back court with KP protecting the rim could be interesting if Frank becomes a real 3 pt threat. I’d certainly take SGA over Sexton.

SGA and Knox have shot up mock drafts lately.

It’s as if in the beginning of the mock draft season, the writers were smart enough to project that the productive players would be drafted ahead of the unproductive players. But as the draft got closer, it became apparent to the writers that NBA GMs aren’t as smart as the people who cover them, so now they’re scrambling to slot in all the players with physical upside ahead of the guys who did shit like “be the first person to ever lead the ncaa in points and assists”. That gets you picked 12th. Simply being recruited by Kentucky makes you top 10.

I figured Perry will chicken out and pick 9th. Wont go all in for another 12-18 months to preserve his job in the event he is wrong. All GMs playbook is the same; be risk averse during first two years cause you can just blame predecessor. (i.e. Sessions. walking bucket, Muddia, Jack, Burke, etc) and then make moves and take high risk high reward shots in year three or even four if owner lets you extend it. Timing is never right. This is the draft to do it. Perry is doing what’s best for Perry and not the team. Selfish prick who is scared and lacks self belief.

@36, that’s a bit harsh. Selfish prick?! Wow, I think it’s a bit early in his tenure for that.

Anyway, I’m ok with Knox. The kids fills a need and at the very least seems to have a legitimate jumper from distance. The Knicks aren’t going to be good anytime soon so there is time to develop this kid.

If Mudiay is “playing it safe,” Perry is really, truly doing it wrong.

For example, They Rank Ayton number 1, and give him comps of Okafor, Oden and Anthony Davis.

Oden may have been a bust, but it had nothing to do with his play. CARMELO doesn’t account for injury risk, does it?

Sexton is not even a real PG. I’m not sure why he’s even on our radar unless you think he’s an outstanding talent a SG.

i wouldnt put too much weight on the 3 comps…. nates methodology includes a lot more and bases his projections based off on the whole…

i never liked similitary scores for basketball just due to sample size and you almsot always get weird ones ….

tothemean.com has a pretty good model this year and one worthy to check out..

@34

I think it’s the other way around.

Anyone can look at the public stats and use his favorite model for evaluating players. If everyone is looking at similar data, they will come to similar conclusions about the rankings. The teams have all that information plus coaches, staffs of people with models that make projections based on that data, and they also get to see how these guys perform in drills and competition against each other. They have access to more and better information (including personal stuff). As information trickles out from teams with access to that better information, the writers adjust their rankings to be more in line with what they are hearing. What I am suggesting is that teams make mistakes and some may be better than others, but in general the teams are better than the writers because they have more and better information.

Our problem is that we don’t know if the Knicks are one of the “good” or “bad” teams at evaluating productivity and upside.

1. Doncic
2. JJJ
3. Carter
4. Young
5. Bamba
6. Ayton
7. Bagley
8. Robert Williams
9. Mikal Bridges
10. SGA
11. Zhaire Smith
12. Miles Bridges
13. Troy Brown
14. Khyri Thomas

Honorable mention: Bruce Brown, Jevon Carter, Donte Divecenzo, Josh Okogie, Mitchell Robinson, De’Anthony Melton, Jarred Vanderbilt

I didn’t forget I just think they’re bad: MPJ, Kevin Knox, Lonnie Walker

Just read Kevin Knox’s draft profile on The Ringer. Under the minuses, they might as well have written “Pretty much everything”.

MINUSES
Settles for too many midrange jumpers and floaters early in the shot clock.

Lacks passing instincts.

Average rebounder; teams will be hurting on the boards if they choose to play Knox as a 4 in smaller lineups.

Takes too many naps on defense, fails to contest shots, keeps his hands by his side, and rarely makes high-impact or timely plays.

Versatility is theoretical; he’s not quick enough to contain elite guards and needs to get a lot stronger to defend interior bigs.

My favorite is “versatility is theoretical”. It’s a nice way of saying he can be bad at multiple positions.

The bit about rebounding is wonderful, too. Why settle for one frontcourt player who can’t rebound his position when you can have two.

@50

The rebounding/defense issue is the one I’ve been concerned about.

Are we sure Knox can defends NBA SFs?

If he can’t and he’s really more of a PF, he’s the exact opposite of what we need at PF if KP is playing C. We want a PF whose strength is rebounding. That was one reason I kept Miles Bridges in the conversation with Mikal. Miles is the much better rebounder, then again he’s also more of SF/PF while Mikal is more of a SG/SF.

Maybe Mikal is just a rich man’s Dotson, but he seems like the best option unless someone falls to us or we move up or down.

@52

Miles’s WP numbers are also not good, so that’s Knicksy. Sexton also not good but at least a freshman. Literally can’t even find Knox on the spreadsheet which probably bodes how you’d probably imagine.

Just read Kevin Knox’s draft profile on The Ringer. Under the minuses, they might as well have written “Pretty much everything”.

Bill Simmons’ track record in proposing trades and generally doing GM sort of things is horrible (but he can very entertaining doing it”. If the Ringer doesn’t like Knox, I think that is, if anything, a good sign for Knox.

Oden may have been a bust, but it had nothing to do with his play. CARMELO doesn’t account for injury risk, does it?

I don’t think it does. I agree Oden is a comp that would make you want to draft somebody. I counted Okafor as a negative comp. But if you’re number one pick has one out of three comps that didn’t live up to expectations, then that is a real risk, more than most draft pundits talk about. And he’s one of the most sure things in the draft per the Carmelo ranking.

Perry doesn’t seem risk adverse provided the cost isn’t too high. Like THCJ says, Mudiay was a risky move even if pretty dumb.

We have no idea what Memphis is asking for. KP, the nine, and next years first unprotected is too much, but might be what they want.

I think Z Smith is likely to outperform his slot as well.

And I think Mikal will be a solid if unspectacular player no one would regret taking. Courtney Lee level – which would be great at the 9 spot, and on a rookie salary.

Porter is interesting – could be a total bust, but I like Massive’s suggestion that we take him if he falls and give him the year to get his body right. More losing for us (better draft pick next year), good foundation for him staying healthy going forward, he and KP come back together and work with each other as part of a young core building toward 2020.

The Knox rumors have really filled me with dread. I’m barely even excited about the draft to be honest. I mean, all these guys need is a fucking internet connection to see that prospects like him almost universally bust.

Oh well. At least I have the Yankees.

I keep seeing more mock drafts with the Knicks taking Knox at 9.

I hope they’re wrong or we’re wrong about Knox. Otherwise what a disaster.

#prayingmills&perryknowwhatthe fuckthey’redoing.

Reminder: Knicks guard Frank Ntilikina is younger than:Deandre Ayton, Mohamed Bamba, Mikal Bridges, Michael Porter Jr., Miles Bridges and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – and most other first-round prospects.— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer) June 21, 2018

You’d figure it would be, what Terry Rozier at the point, Booker at the 2, Richardson at the 3, Turner at the 4 and Towns at the 5? With KP, Willy, Winslow, Nance, Russell and Delon Wright off of the bench? I think that team makes the playoffs.

2015 draft was solid and above average.. you have delon wright and hollis jefferson who have panned out… and im almost positive guys like russell and winslow will put it together as long as they can stay healthy…. the lottery guys were filled with landmines….

2017 was one of the best drafts ever… and probably will be the best this decade…. that 2015 doesnt stack up isnt indicative of the quality of that draft…

this year will probably end up the same or slightly worse as 2015 and theres a lot of similarities…

@67 – that quote is from Knox?

And I think Mikal will be a solid if unspectacular player no one would regret taking. Courtney Lee level – which would be great at the 9 spot, and on a rookie salary.

If Mikal is going to be a Lee caliber player, then I’d rather pass and take a shot with Knox. No disrespect to Lee who everyone knows I like, bit I think Dotson has a really good chance to be as good or better than Lee. So what would I need Mikal for. I’m expecting Mikal to be a better defender and better all around scorer than Lee. Otherwise, I want to go elsewhere.

Mikal will be better than Lee since he’s not afraid to shoot if a guy is within 3 feet of him.

@67 – that quote is from Knox?

Yes. Somehow I left that part out. 🙂

More Knicks Film School Retweeted Kevin O’Connor
O’Connor says the Knicks interest in Mikal Bridges is not nearly as high as has been previously reported, expects them to take Knox.

He also notes the Knicks are one of several teams to reach out to Atlanta about their third pick (although I expect the price to be too high)

Knox rose up draft boards because he’s a fluid, athletic 6-foot-9 scorer with dynamic offensive talent at only 18 years old

This is not sound logic. He was that when he failed to produce at Kentucky, too.

Someone called Perry risk averse? I disagree. Knox at 9 is extremely high risk. I’d like him to be a little more conservative here.

There’s another problem with high-risk young guys, too: the decreased value of a second contract means if it takes a kid 3-4 years to develop, you either have to cut ties with him early, or pay for potential AGAIN with dollars. It’s bad value all around.

@87. Come on, man, I’m trying to eat, here….

Djphan – I owe you an apology. I read your list and thought you were just being contrarian. Then I read your follow-up. Great stuff.

@48 – love that your ‘I didn’t forget’ list is, according to many rumours, essentially the top of the Knicks board.

#dolansrazor

#knicksgonnaknick

Mike, don’t forget, you’ll always have Linsanity

@85

It’s not one or the other.

Unquestionably teams are watching players compete head to head, putting them through drills, interviewing them, and scouting in the traditional sense using the eye test. Why not? That also adds value. But most teams also have analytics departments with proprietary models to supplement the more traditional stats and scouting. Perry was just talking about some of this in a recent interview. You can argue that some of them aren’t very good at it anyway, but on the flip side, you need a much larger sample than we typically have to be statistically significant because most GMs, coaches etc.. don’t last very long. There’s a lot of randomness in the results.

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/23796252/2018-nba-draft-projections-kevin-pelton-luka-doncic-marvin-bagley-deandre-ayton

Kevin Pelton on Knox: “His measurables and skill set sound good on paper; in practice, Knox has not rated well either at Kentucky or in two years of EYBL play. Besides scoring, Knox makes little other box-score impact. He can overcome that if he develops into an elite shooter at 6-foot-9.”

I’m already pretty disappointed in Perry. Had we not done the Mudiay trade, we could’ve salary-dumped someone with those 2nd rounders, just like the Nets did. I’m sure he wants to keep both Lee and THJ, though, because KNICKS. I hope he does something amazing tonight, but I don’t have high hopes.

“I hope he does something amazing tonight, but I don’t have high hopes.”

#metoo

I’m glad we’re all getting back into glass half empty mode. ?

I just read that Toronto covets 9 and is offering Lowry.

Relax. After Bargs debacle, Dolan is very suspicious of any Ujiri offer and wouldn’t agree to any trade without first running it by Isiah.

@106

+1

Don’t forget Melo too!

How about taking a chance for Dwight Howard. KP HOWARD AND FRANK.

I see a lot of mocks with Doncic at 4. It will be interesting to see if we’d make a big push to move up for him there. Hopefully not losing Frank in the process of doing it.

He does rank well on CARMELO. Right in line with the 9th pick.

Of course, CARMELO also projects Zhaire Smith to be the 2nd best producer of WAR through 2025.

I guess I’ll start getting ready to drink the kevin knox kool aid. He’s only 19. Great body. Athletic. We’ll still be able to keep building through the draft because a core with Frank and Knox will be shit for a while. Etc.

Knox is slated to go mid-lottery because the draft guys know that someone is always dumb enough to take a guy like him over a guy who’s actually been productive and it looks like the Knicks will prove them right again. Hopefully whatever he showed in workouts (and clearly he showed something) translates but I’d much rather go with Mikal Bridges and I’m not even a big Bridges guy.

For instance it seems that guys who score a lot are over-rated by NBA teams. Why? Don’t they have analytic teams that tell them that lots of guys can score, but efficiency is more important, as well as other aspects of the game, including defense, rebounding, etc.? Or do they hear that information and just ignore it, because they think “20 points per games!!!” is important?

I don’t have the answer but I have an opinion.

I think years ago teams wildly overrated scoring relative to efficiency, but I think they’ve learned a lot in recent years. I’m sort of somewhere in the middle. Years ago I was the typical fan that was impressed by athletic scoring in volume. Then I found advanced stats, learned more, and became an efficiency fiend. But I think I may have overshot in that direction a bit. Now I’m probably more balanced between usage and efficiency. The goal is high usage and high efficiency, but now I get that not all players can just vary their usage and stay as efficient. You need guys that can create and score. The more efficient the better.

Knox is slated to go mid-lottery because the draft guys know that someone is always dumb enough to take a guy like him over a guy who’s actually been productive and it looks like the Knicks will prove them right again.

But both Givony and Schmitz actually like the guy which makes this so confounding.

in practice, Knox has not rated well either at Kentucky or in two years of EYBL play. Besides scoring, Knox makes little other box-score impact.

So it’s not just a Kentucky thing? Was he playing out of position in EYBL too? When has this guy ever been productive? He’s looking more and more like Chauncey Gardener from the movie Being There. YIKES

Bargs ended up costing us the 9th pick. We’re about to select Knox with 9th pick. Some of the logic bears an eerie similarity.

NBA professionals, GM’s, coaches, are no more overrated in player evaluation than writers, stat heads, or guys running websites.

Ayton going #10 is high level stat analysis. Really?

Most draft scout/DX eye test models do a decent job predicting who the most productive players will be in a draft (see here for more on that), but I’m pretty sure Knox is exactly the kind of guy traditional scouts like Schimtz and Givony will overrate, because of his perceived “polish” and “NBA body”. Eye test is good at capturing qualitative aspects of play and is of course necessary to flesh out the statistical picture but it also causes people to overrate said qualitative aspects if they’re being undisciplined despite their projections working out in aggregate. If guys like Knox are just the kind of guys good traditional scouts like Schmitz and Givony are likely to overrate, then it’s not confounding to see why he’s ranked as high as he is despite his total lack of notable production. So I take their words on Knox with a heaping grain of salt.

Productivity is king in drafting. Then projectability. Knox has neither–he’s just a wishcast of a prospect. If he turns out to be the best player in the draft, it’d still be a bad pick at the time of drafting, because there’s zero evidence right now that he’ll excel as a player.

I’d also like to throw my hat in the ring for once or twice weekly posting. This is a great blog that deserves more content beyond Daily News threads.

@wojespn
4h4 hours ago
More
Here’s how the Top 6 of tonight’s NBA Draft is taking shape: 1. Suns: Deandre Ayton. 2. Kings: Marvin Bagley Jr.; 3. Hawks: Luka Doncic; 4. Jaren Jackson, Jr.; 5. Mavericks: Mo Bamba; 6. Magic: Trae Young.

Sounds like Wendell or Porter will be there for us.

Tatum had more rebounds, more steals, more blocks, more assists and a higher WS40 than Knox in college. Knox did have similar usage/eFG%/TS%/free throw rate numbers to Tatum.

Knox had a lower TS% on lower usage, but the difference was fairly negligible. So if you want to be generous to Knox you could say he’s like a less-boxscore stuffing version of Tatum. Tatum also didn’t come with the “stands around looking disinterested on defense” label but I don’t know how much that really means.

the bulls had the hots for carter…. so i’m doubting it… altho it’s possible they go porter since they had the most info on his injury and that might have been his guarantee… and then it hinges on where the cavs go with trae gone….

It’s not fair to compare Knox to Tatum. Tatum was selected 3rd by one of the smartest organizations in basketball. We are selecting 9th. The standard should be is he a good selection for the 9th pick relative to who else will be available.

@129

Note that I said that Givony/Schmitz are still v good scouts/talent evaluators. Just saying that I think traditional scouting still tends to overrate qualitative features (e.g. “polish) in their analysis. I would give you some concrete examples, but all of DX’s prior mock drafts have been paywalled by ESPN, which is really annoying. But I don’t think it’s entirely unreasonable to say that, as a matter of course, traditional scouts are going to rate prospects who look good higher than advanced analytics models, which usually totally forgo (unless they use simple consensus/eye test rankings as a partial weight) any kind of eye test whatsoever. And many advanced models routinely do better than traditional scout’s models. One reasonable, partial explanation for the difference in performance is the one I’ve given: that traditional scouts tend to overvalue prospects who look good or have canonical NBA measureables vis a vis the ones who are more productive despite looking more limited or less typical in playstyle (Robert Williams is getting underrated precisely because he’s a traditional roll and dive center who can’t really shoot from distance and traditional scouts are big on emphasizing “positionless basketball”, which I think is here to stay but not the only correct way to play the game of basketball optimally.)

to add to the scouts vs stats debate… scouts do add value in projections…. there’s some stickiness to hs rankings for example… and nba teams as a collective do a decent job also…. stat models as a collective do lag both of those… and there are a lot of bad models out there… but there are a few who outpace them…

but the best model is actually aggregating all of them together…. which is what nate does at 538 for his election projections but only started doing this year with CARMELO… but even with CARMELO it’s only a 50/50 split….

so scouts do add something to the discussion…. and nba teams do generally do an ok job…. and stat models are pretty good also… it’s just sometimes ppl tend to overrate the power of any one of those things…

just like in anything else in life…. getting different and diverse perspectives is the most powerful tool…. and when modeling the future you should get used to being more wrong than right and be open to other viewpoints if you want to get better at it….

@138

Yeah, it seems as if blended models of advanced consensus and traditional scout consensus seem to perform the best, as least in TotheMean’s draft models page is to be believed. The most interesting question that results from that fact is, I think, diagnosing just what each kind of model (scouting vs. stats) succeeds and fails at, and why exactly combining them yields more success in the long run than using either alone. I think there’s a coherent answer for explaining how scout models fail (overrating qualitative aspects), but it’s harder to explain how and why advanced models fail, since so many decisions w/r/t weights, variables, etc. are idiosyncratic or opaque to explanation. You could explain it by their undervaluing of qualitative aspects of play but that’s tantamount to circularity when you’re also explaining the failure of scout models by their overreliance on qualitative evaluation, especially when we don’t know and likely never will know just how much weighting of qualitative evaluation is the Goldilocks amount. We need to create a residency at KB for a statistician, lol.

what about a poor man Paul Pierce? 😀

The only thing I like about Knox is his age. I won’t be happy if we pick him at 9

that traditional scouts tend to overvalue prospects who look good or have canonical NBA measureables vis a vis the ones who are more productive despite looking more limited or less typical in playstyle (Robert Williams is getting underrated precisely because he’s a traditional roll and dive center who can’t really shoot from distance and traditional scouts are big on emphasizing “positionless basketball”, which I think is here to stay but not the only correct way to play the game of basketball optimally.)

But Schmitz identified Williams as another player he’s very high on. He mentioned that in another draft Williams would go much higher but it’s his misfortune there are 4 or 5 quality bigs in this draft who deserve to be ahead of him.

I hope Carter is available and Knicks choose him. At #9 you want to avoid a bust and find a guy who could be a starter. Carter checks those boxes. But how do you select from Mikal/Knox/Miles/Zhaire/Lonny and so on? That feels like a crap shoot to me so if Knox is wowing teams in group workouts, getting 2nd workouts, and Schmitz/Givony really like him, maybe there’s something there. That said, learning he put up weak stats not just at Kentucky but also EYBL has me real worried. He’s never been productive anywhere except in vanilla high school competition? Porter at least played well at the Hoop Summit. So I don’t know anymore.

The funny thing about the draft is with all they hype, sometime they will only be 1-3 all star, 1 superstar and some might not be in the league in 3 years.

At least you can squint and see a real player with Knox. This isn’t Jordan Hill or Chris Wilcox here.

Givony’s latest mock has Porter Jr. slipping all the way to 12 on health concerns. If we wanted a true “roll the dice” pick, that would be the one to make in my mind (admittedly having no clue what the situation is with his medicals). I’m pretty sure he would have gone 1st or 2nd if healthy so we’d be getting a real bargain talent-wise and the Sixers did show it’s not the worst thing to have lottery picks “redshirt” a year or two if you’re still wanting to tank those seasons.

https://youtu.be/TRVPATH6Szc

This video should help you feel a little bit better about Kevin Knox. That jumper is intoxicating, and I hope it isn’t fool’s gold.

Would be totally fine with SGA as a pick. We’d have the beginnings of a truly elite, switchable defense in the backcourt while also fielding two PGs, so I feel like we could run a really motion heavy offense with two orchestrators while not sacrificing anything on the other side of the ball.

Porter must have a career-altering injury. Otherwise, he would have to be the guy. They should be tanking this season anyways, and if they’re willing to wait on Knox, they could certainly wait on Porter.

Currently waiting in the hospital for the birth of my first child, so I am going to need you guys to provided a detailed blow by blow seeing as I can’t follow live.

Honestly think I am more nervous for the draft than the baby. Judging by twitter this morning it is going to be a wild one. Not sure who I have a preference on. There has been an overload of data and mocks. Just don’t fuck it up Perry!

Apparently soon Mills and Perry either pick Knox at #9 or we find out they’ve been trolling the entire internet for the last few days…

Thenamestam, unfortunately, you write up of Knox reminded me of Lance Thomas

WOJ TWEET:

Here’s how the Top 6 of tonight’s NBA Draft is taking shape: 1. Suns: Deandre Ayton. 2. Kings: Marvin Bagley Jr.; 3. Hawks: Luka Doncic; 4. Jaren Jackson, Jr.; 5. Mavericks: Mo Bamba; 6. Magic: Trae Young.

Something peculiar about this tweet. He lists the team for every pick except #4. Does that mean the Grizz are taking JJJ or perhaps there’s gonna be a trade-up? Hey I’m just holding out some sliver of hope here. It’s depressing because Porter dropping means Carter is more likely to be taken by Chicago or Cavs. And that means NYK might as well take out the dart board.

I honestly prefer Porter Jr. He may be available like Paul Pierce in 99.

Knox is somewhere in between 2 Dermar. Derozan and Dermar Johnson

Another reason scouts are needed to add to stats is that you need to interpret how the better quality of the opposition will affect a players game. For example, if a player uses great quickness to get wide open and has a great shot off the dribble, he can do that against anyone, but if a player just shoots over people, and the people guarding him in the NBA will be too big to shoot over, then he will have a hard time at the next level. These are simplified examples, but the principle holds. Another reason is that often there just isn’t enough data to make a valid statistical decision. If a player’s three point shooting got better during his one year in college, was that random variation or a real improvement? If his shooting former got better, maybe it’s real, but you need an eye test to tell that.

*fultz.

-From Bleacher report

Knox even has a meh suit

That was supposed to be a laughing emoji…

DALLAS.

Thanks Knicks for all of those character building November wins

Luka to Dallas? I’m seeing Trae Young in NBA.com…

Luka to Dallas? I’m seeing Trae Young in NBA.com…

Trade with Atlanta.

So Atlanta gets Trae

Yep.

Guess they aren’t too high on Schroeder… Wonder if they have a trade lined up.

Nice job by Atlanta.

I think Porter is going to be there. I think we should go for it. That is high risk, high reward.

Plus ca change…