Knicks Morning News (2016.07.11)

  • [New York Times] Liberty Show Solidarity With Black Lives Matter in Rare Public Stance (Mon, 11 Jul 2016 05:09:08 GMT)

    The players wore T-shirts addressing the recent shooting deaths of black men by the police, without giving notice to the W.N.B.A.

  • [New York Times] Sports of The Times: Before Vast Riches, Free Agency’s Focus Was Freedom (Mon, 11 Jul 2016 05:09:09 GMT)

    A settlement from a 1970 lawsuit filed by Oscar Robertson led to the easy movement and lavish salaries that are now commonplace in the N.B.A.

  • [New York Times] Injured Bogut Named in Australia Basketball Squad for Rio (Mon, 11 Jul 2016 02:21:27 GMT)

    Dallas Mavericks center Andrew Bogut will be given every chance to prove his fitness for the Rio de Janeiro Games after being named in Australia’s 12-man squad for the Olympic tournament.

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    Mike Kurylo

    Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

    19 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2016.07.11)”

    1. First post!! lol.

      Anyway – from the last thread —

      I would be fine with us bottoming out and getting a high lottery pick, but honestly, that would mean probably both Noah AND Melo (AND probably Rose) getting injured, and KP either getting injured (NONONONO) or regressing. Is this what people really want?

      IMHO – the only way for a team to make the leap is to get players that greatly outperform their contracts — so basically that’s either finding a truly difference-making rookie or to sign one of the true max free agents. Presumably we’ve already found the former in Porzingis. Even if we get, say, the 7th pick, what honestly are the chances that that player will be so amazing? If you look through the last 5 drafts, the only truly game changing (or projected to be) talents taken in the top 7 were:

      KAT
      KP
      Anthony Davis
      Lillard
      Irving (if you like him)
      Wiggins (if you like him)

      That’s it. That’s 5 drafts x 7 players = 35 players, out of whom you could charitably guess 5 or 6 are real difference makers. In truth, Lillard/Irving are both great offensive players but pretty bad defensive players. Wiggins is still mostly potential but he looks like he might get there.

      If you want, you can add Klay, Drummond, and Kawhi to that list, even though they were drafted lower than 7. So if you expand your list to 15 players per year, or 75 players drafted, you basically had a maybe 8-9 players, so a 10-12% chance of really hitting.

      People see OKC and the ridiculous Durant/Westbrook/Harden drafts and think that that’s easy or common to pull off. Has there been another example of a team hitting multiple lottery picks like that? I guess GS with Curry/Klay, but I think the chance of getting another 2 All-NBA players at 7 and 11 are basically zero.

      We’ve already beaten the draft/lottery odds by getting KP. The best way forward for this team is to play well and then attract the next difference-maker through free agency.

    2. I agree with you in not wanting a horrible record this year. But it’s not from a logical reason like yours. I mostly only watch the Knicks when I watch basketball, and I’m tired of lousy teams. I want some hope when I watch. And, anyway, since only one team in thirty wins it all, which are really crummy odds, championship or bust is not my attitude.

    3. Mindaugas Kuzminskas is a replacement for the role Derrick Williams had. He’ll be less athletic, but D-Will struggled picking up the offense and wasn’t very good defensively either. So on a net basis we may be better off with MK (and even more likely at the price).

    4. Mindaugas Kuzminskas is a replacement for the role Derrick Williams had. He’ll be less athletic, but D-Will struggled picking up the offense and wasn’t very good defensively either. So on a net basis we may be better off with MK (and even more likely at the price).

      Honestly, I know D-Will’s numbers weren’t so bad, but he was pretty awful on defense. His inability to be any kind of a threat from 3 point range also hurt the offense IMHO.

      Min-Dog is a total unknown of course, but apparently has been working hard on his 3 point shot (career high 33.9% last season, improving 30.5–>32.5–>33.9 on higher and higher volume each year, and 37.7% in 29 transnational games this past season). And the analytics crowd should like him because according to the euro-scout who was on Jared Dubin’s podcast, he literally only shoots 3s or tries to dunk the ball. And loves to get out in transition. Career eFG of 57%.

      he can’t be worse than Williams was on defense. so hopefully he’ll be a net +.

    5. Although actually, looking over the box scores, numbers seem a little ragged so far. It’s Summer League which means trash basketball. Still looks like an impact piece to me…

    6. Simmons’ passing is as stunning as promised. But his shot, and, at times, his reluctance to shoot, are also as promised. As we’ve seen with Rondo and Rubio, a passing wizard can only do so much if he can’t (or doesn’t want to) shoot from distance.

      But man, those dimes he dishes are beautiful.

    7. The difference between Simmons and Rondo and Rubio is his 6’10” frame 240lbs frame, 7′ wingspan, and 42″ vert. And he’s only 19. He’ll be just fine.

    8. Yeah. Turnovers could be an issue. But he obviously has some serious tools. Will be interesting to see how he turns out.

    9. He’ll be just fine.

      I’m not doomsaying. I suspect the Sixers got a hell of a player. But he’s also not the complete package yet that, say, Towns was at this point a year ago. If Towns never improved over what he could do at the start of his career, the Wolves would still have a hell of a player to build around, where Simmons has some things that very obviously need work.

      (So, for that matter, does our own wunderkind.)

    10. Yeah, even the negative nellies on this site can’t bear to contemplate any troubling signs in Zinger’s stat line. If he were to go south things would get really really ugly….

    11. Derrick Williams was a trash defender and low BBIQ. Kuz (his preferred abbreviated name) was an OK defender and a high BBIQ, with good passing and shot selection skills. I honestly think he’d be a solid ~8th man with a ceiling as a 6th man. Dubin’s Euro Scout was really, really good.

      But what I wanted to bring up was Willy Hernangomez. The scout said that he barely got any playing time this year because of roster issues, one year removed from being the #2 option behind KP, and the lack of playing time ate into this development, though his per 36’s are equivalent. His defense is NOT good, but he rebounds and post-scores well. Not sure he’ll get any playing time at all if his defense continues to stink.

      And this guy Randle is GOOD!!! But who can ever separate actual good from Summer League good..

    12. don’t get too enamored with what randle did in summer league… playing well against competition that’s two year’s younger isn’t saying much…

    13. That’s 5 drafts x 7 players = 35 players, out of whom you could charitably guess 5 or 6 are real difference makers.

      I think that you probably know the flaws in your methodology already (like stating that KP is such a “difference making rookie”, then leaving him off the list one sentence later).

      But even with the results of your study being what they are, having a top 7 pick results in obtaining a franchise player 20% of the time. That’s actually good odds, especially given then fact that even if the rookie isn’t a “difference maker”, he stands a chance of still being very good, and thus having value.

      I’ll maintain, the best (and only realistic) path to a championship is to have first round picks in two or three continuous drafts. They don’t have to be top picks, but, obviously, the higher the pick, the better the chances of landing better players.

      So, I guess, the best thing would be option C, but it’s always better to lose 60 games without being in win-now mode, so I don’t know what repurcussions there might be if next year is another disaster year. Dolan would probably intervene and trade Porzingis for Brook Lopez or something.

    14. Congrats to Tim Duncan on a truly stellar NBA career, IMO one of the top 5 players ever.

    15. Yep, Duncan really was fantastic. Love everything about his career, especially the way he ended it. A perfect contrast in every way to Kobe.

    16. I think that you probably know the flaws in your methodology already (like stating that KP is such a “difference making rookie”, then leaving him off the list one sentence later).

      But even with the results of your study being what they are, having a top 7 pick results in obtaining a franchise player 20% of the time

      Well, he IS in that list, but whatever.

      5 or 6 out 35 is more like 14-17%, which, if you’re trashing your season on purpose to have that outcome, are pretty low odds if you ask me. Especially if you’re trashing your season for multiple seasons in a row.

      In terms of 2-way players, KAT looks like a real difference maker, as is Anthony Davis. I think KP will be one. Like I said, Lillard/Irving/Wiggins are really 1-way players at this point. So really, it’s 3 out of 35. It’s better than MegaMillions odds, but for the Knicks?

      And amazingly – we have ALL our 1st round picks going forward, an are actually net +1 2nd round pick over the next 4 years. That’s 9 picks (barring trades) during the 4 year term of Noah and Lee.

    17. Well, he IS in that list, but whatever.

      Oh, I thought your KP was Kostas Papanikoloau. My bad ;)

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