2016 FA Roundtable: Derrick Rose

KURYLO: Sometimes when I show a cool chess move (oxymoron, I know) to my kids I’m thinking “an interesting an idea — white is obviously trying to counterattack on the queenside and open up space for their bishop pair, hoping that they can use their pawn majority to their advantage, but they’re ignoring the threat on the kingside.” Meanwhile my kids simplify the matter to “oh he moved a pawn.”

There’s so much to consider with the trade for Rose. Could the Knicks have gotten more for Lopez? Maybe they could have gotten some youth (future picks) for the defensive minded center? Was this just a salary dump to get out of RoLo’s contract earlier? Do the Knicks understand that Rose has been extremely inefficient? Do they see how his numbers have declined? How will he work with Carmelo Anthony? With the triangle? They’re not going to resign him for mega bucks, right?

Yet the reaction from the mainstream media (appealed to Bernie Bros: check) is “Derrick is one of the top point guards in the NBA who is playoff-battle-tested. He adds a whole new dynamic to our roster and immediately elevates our backcourt.” (Actually that description comes from the team’s new skipper!) There is a thought that the Knicks are getting an MVP-caliber player who just can’t stay healthy. And some of the chorus tend to agree.

That is an oversimplification of the matter. And in fact it’s straight up inaccurate. Here’s all I need to show that the MVP version of Derrick Rose won’t be showing up at MSG.

Season G PER TS% WS/48
2008-09 81 16 51.60% 0.08
2009-10 78 18.6 53.20% 0.1
2010-11 81 23.5 55.00% 0.21
2011-12 39 23 53.20% 0.21
2013-14 10 9.7 44.60% -0.04
2014-15 51 15.9 49.30% 0.04
2015-16 66 13.5 47.90% 0.01

‘Nuff said.

PLUGH: The Derrick Rose move has two interesting sides. On the one hand, you look at what he represents as a piece of the on court puzzle. He gives the Knicks, stylistically, a lot of what we never have. Great, athletic dives to the rim are as rare as diamonds in New York. It’s impossible to know how efficient and effective he’ll be doing any of that for the Knicks, or whether there’s a great passing game waiting to be (re)discovered. At worst, he’s a rental that gives the Knicks a shot at a faster brand of play.

Rose may be more valuable off the court, however. Fans and media assess players with a variety of metrics, eyeball tests, and so on. Players, on the other hand, have a sense of fraternity about the whole thing. They know who’s “a baller” and who they want in their foxhole. That matters A LOT in player circles, and that impacts the sort of network a team has tapped for free agent signings and so on. It clearly mattered with Noah and Lee and Jennings to varying degrees. If the Knicks want to flip the reputation of being a great stage with few star actors, the Rose move may pay dividends of a different kind. We’ll see.

KURYLO: I’m skeptical of this effect. Don’t NBA players know which ones suck? Wait I just thought of all the player-turned horrible GMs, and I think I just answered my own question.

PLUGH: I used to be skeptical of the effect, but I don’t think you can account for the disconnect between the way players talk about other players and the way fans and media see those same players. Michael Jordan once called Nick Anderson his heir apparent right after Anderson stripped him of the ball in the 1995 playoffs. I think players today are better than at any time in the past, but you listen to the way Charles Barkley talks and it makes you think. I just read that Stephon Marbury thinks Derrick Rose is going to be amazing next year. Maybe he will, but the only reason a player would think that is reputation and the “foxhole” thing, I think.

KURYLO: And a healthy disassociation from advanced stats.

FISHER-COHEN: Did we trade for Derrick Rose or did we agree to take on Derrick Rose so that we could have his friend, Joakim Noah? Let’s dispel some of the main rationalizations for this trade:

    He will help recruit free agents: Next summer, he’ll be gone if we want significant cap room. I don’t think “we used to have Derrick Rose on our team!” is gonna be an effective way of luring free agents.
    We have more cap space in 2017: Say you’re out of room in your garage and you’ve just inherited a 2015 BMW. Do you A) light your Toyota Prius on fire or B) sell your Toyota Prius? If cap space was the rationale, then Phil chose (A), burning assets to create room rather than selling them for value.
    So much red…

    He can collapse the defense: The best explanation for the inordinate volume of shots he takes at the rim is that teams know he can’t finish anymore and don’t bother sending help. Last year, he finished in the restricted area at a rate about 10% below the league’s average, and that doesn’t factor in his low free throw rate.

    But he was good after the All-Star Break: Post ASB, Rose’s shooting efficiency went up from embarrassing (46% TS) to just bad (52% TS) while defensively he got worse, going from allowing players to shoot 1.5% worse than average to allowing them to shoot 5.6% above average. His net rating also got significantly worse.

So yeah, the only way you can even halfway rationalize this choice is that Phil wanted Noah and saw Rose as a way to recruit him.

CRONIN: I mean, it is definitely fair to say that Joakim Noah came here almost specifically because of his buddy Derrick Rose being here. So that’s something. But really, signing Rose was a bad idea because it was a sign that the Knicks are going to try to “win now” with a team that will likely not “win now,” so there is no really point in trying to, well, you know, win now. They’ll likely be just good enough to make it so that their first round pick isn’t that great.

However, the team likely has improved overall, so there’s at least a decent chance that the Knicks will be in the playoff hunt. And if you’re going to make a bad basketball decision, hey, at least we maybe get to watch some playoff basketball! I like playoff basketball! So I’ll just grin and bear it and just hope that Rose somehow turns back the clock to when he had knees.

UDWARY: When the trade was made, I was slightly swayed into grudged acceptance due to us having all the cap space in the world next year. It was a move that punted our team building to the next year, when there was actually a worthy free agent class and not as much money to go around. Then we signed Noah and Courtney Lee to long term contracts and all that extra cap space vanished. Now we have an old, injury prone center who might be good for a year or two, a PG with no knees who will most certainly be awful and a mediocre guard who is on the wrong side of 30, instead of a PG on a rookie contract who may end up OK, an expiring veteran contract and a starting quality center on a very good value contact. This trade undoubtedly set us back long term, and may have even made us worse short term. It was a complete failure in my opinion.

96 replies on “2016 FA Roundtable: Derrick Rose”

Off topic, but I thought I’d put this here because I plan to write about the Olympic basketball tournament and we now have a couple of players involved beyond the US team…

August 6

USA vs, China (6pm EST)

August 7

Brazil vs. Lithuania (1:15pm EST)
Croatia vs. Spain (6pm EST)

August 8

USA vs. Venezuela (6pm EST)

August 9

Spain vs. Brazil (1:15 EST)
Lithuania vs. Nigeria (6pm EST)

August 10

Australia vs. USA (6pm EST)

August 11

Nigeria vs. Spain (6pm EST)
Lithuania vs. Argentina (9:30pm EST)

August 12

USA vs. Serbia (6pm EST)

August 13

Spain vs. Lithuania (6pm EST) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

August 14

USA vs. France (1:15pm EST)

August 15

Spain vs. Argentina (6pm EST)
Lithuania vs. Croatia (9:30 EST)

The playoff round begin after this. I didn’t include France in the schedule I posted here because there are no Knicks, but you should watch those games too because France is the US’ main obstacle in Group A and they have a ton of great NBAers.

To the extent that Rose helped attract Noah (who I think will play very well for as long as he lasts) and Noah then helped attract Lee, you can defend the deal. But imo the probability that Rose returns to being a highly productive player is close to nil. He’ll probably be better than last year and better than Calderon, but I don’t really see the point. If he’s productive, what are we going to do? We can’t sign him to a long term contract and sleep at night. If he’s not productive, sure, we can get rid of him next year. But we gave up Lopez and Grant (both attractive contracts). We may not get back as much value in that cap space as we gave up with the much higher salary cap in the NBA now (moving even higher next year). I still think a better alternative would have been to use our space to upgrade SG and our bench. We probably still could have gotten Jennings and started him while we developed Grant and continued to develop the team with a mix of younger players and whoever we added.

Strat is right that it’s a role of dice. specifically, it’s 3 dice, one is a different color…if that one has a 1-3 you look on the batters’ card, 4-6 you look on the pitcher.

I figure only Strat will get that.

Mike……when some guy whose handle is “Gods Plan 2” says Rose will be in the running for MVP, why would you question that? Is it because he’s Gods Plan 2 and not 1?

I feel like we’ve covered the Rose trade ad nauseum at this point. Not that I’m unhappy with the roundtable to start the thread, but I don’t think there’s much more to say. Even the people defending the trade, like Frank, are only doing so because they don’t think it’s guaranteed to have been awful. He’s maybe 60/40 against it, I’m 70/30 against it, and Max F-C and Mike K are 100% against it. No one has been for it (except reub). So there’s not really a lot of difference in perspective here.

And most of us agree that we’re against it because the players we gave up have value, and the players we got either suck or may be injured a lot.

That said, I thought Lee was our best choice for SG this offseason, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be competent for 3 years (too bad we signed him for 4), so it’s good that we got him. And if Noah stays healthy, he’s the kind of player I freaking LOVE, all hustle and D and intensity and brains (and good passing). We’ll all be psyched to have him, and him and KP in the paint will do serious damage on D.

Except Noah probably will play only half the games over the next 4 years, and that sucks.

Still, the 30% perspective is that Noah will stay healthy long enough that CP3 signs and we have one good run at a title next year. I’d be pretty happy with CP3, Lee, Melo, KP, and Noah…. At least until their knees simultaneously imploded, creating a massive crater at the heart of MSG.

Obviously Phil is hanging his legacy as GM on this offseason. One would hope that he did his due diligence on Rose before making that deal.

I have no doubt that he expects Rose to be close to fully recovered and capable of being a top-level PG next year, and no other candidates truly available in free agency or via trade were capable of that. As such, he would be a more important piece than Lopez at a much harder position to fill.

Statistically speaking, there’s lots to quibble with. It’s a big risk, no doubt. I personally am neutral on the risk. On one hand, a starting lineup of Noah, Melo, KP, Lee and Rose is theoretically the best one the Knicks have fielded since the Ewing era. Maybe it’s an illusion built on old accolades and fragile knees. But it would be a sight to see, right?

z-Man better than Marbury, Crawford, Tim Thomas, Zach Randolph and Curry? In retrospect what an AAU team that would have been or something like that. I think every one of them was one and done except Curry who went straight from HS to #1 pick.

Obviously Phil is hanging his legacy as GM on this offseason.

Not sure I agree with this part. One, I think Phil’s very comfortable with his legacy, and two, I think he’s always had a 5-year plan for the Knicks. I think he’s shifted gears at times, but I think he’s always seen this as a longer term project. This is the Melo-term project that dovetails into the Porzingis-term project. At least that’s how I think he sees it.

Here’s the problem.

Payroll Obligations, 2018-2019 Knicks:

Carmelo Anthony, age 34 season, $28M
Joakim Noah, age 33 season, $18M
Courtney Lee, age 33 season, $12.5M

This is the problem with the “win now” mentality that Phil Jackson has brought to the Knicks. It’s not so much this year’s team I’m worried about, it’s what happens a few years down the line when $68.5M of payroll is tied up in these three players. And that’s assuming Derrick Rose doesn’t stay relatively healthy and fake his way to a horrible contract extension, or that Phil doesn’t give out more bad “win now” contracts next offseason.

This is another boom and bust cycle we’re in. Let’s see how big the “boom” is this time. The “bust” part is coming, it’s just a question of when.

Fisher! Please tell me how you got that shot chart? I haven’t been able to figure it out since NBA.com changed their stats page a few years ago.

@JK47

But the NBA’s cap projections for those years (lockout notwithstanding) continue to go up. Those deals will look very different by the time we get to them.

From USA Today:

The league also released projections through the 2020-21 season.

• 2018-19 salary cap and luxury tax: $108 million/$130 million

• 2019-20 salary cap and luxury tax: $109 million/$132 million

• 2020-21 salary cap and luxury tax: $114 million/$139 million

Not great, but rising each year.

At worst, he’s a rental that gives the Knicks a shot at a faster brand of play.

You really could have ended the round table right there…..

Payroll Obligations, 2018-2019 Knicks:

Carmelo Anthony, age 34 season, $28M
Joakim Noah, age 33 season, $18M
Courtney Lee, age 33 season, $12.5M

This is the problem with the “win now” mentality that Phil Jackson has brought to the Knicks. It’s not so much this year’s team I’m worried about, it’s what happens a few years down the line when $68.5M of payroll is tied up in these three players.

I know I may not be up on the advanced stats that much, but on my quick math that = 58.5MM, but whatever. So that means the 3 highest paid players on the team will be occupying a total of 58.5/108 = 54% of the cap. honestly, that’s not that bad.

2018-19 cap:

1. Melo ~28
2. Noah ~18
3. Lee ~12.2
4. KP (still on rookie scale)
5. Lance Thomas (~6% of cap)
6. Kuzminskas (RFA) –> QO = 3.1
7. KOQ if still here – 4.2
8. 2017 NYK 1st round pick
9. 2018 NYK 1st round pick
10. 2017 CHI 2nd round pick
11. 2017 HOU 2nd round pick
12. 2018 NYK 2nd round pick
13. Russell Westbrook? Chris Paul?
14. Ron Baker?
15. Chasson Randle?

It’s just not that bad. Plenty of youthful possibilities.

Rama is correct. Very few of us liked the Rose trade. I’ll put myself in the 40/60 camp and it was much worse before the FA signings. Even though we’re in “win-now” mode, we have all our future picks so we can rebuild while not stinking up the Garden.

JK47, your worry about the aging trio is valid but that’s about the time that we want to see the transformation of the roster to our future draft picks. If we do well there, those 3 first rounders (KP + 2017, 2018) will be inexpensive rotation players – hopefully stars.

By the way, that’s how I would plot our long-range plan anyhow. If it works that way, we’ve rebuilt while providing an entertaining product.

Payroll Obligations, 2018-2019 Knicks:

Carmelo Anthony, age 34 season, $28M
Joakim Noah, age 33 season, $18M
Courtney Lee, age 33 season, $12.5M

I’ll give you that Melo and Noah look like dangerous contracts, but courtney lee at $12.5M? According to the $108M projection for 2018-2019, that’s only 11% of the cap. Because of how the cap has been changing, it makes the most sense to evaluate these guys based on percentage of the cap, not overall salary. Let me list some shooting guards who made around that percent of the cap last year or more (about $8M/year):

Monta Ellis 10.9M
Shump 10M
OJ Mayo 8M
Affllalo 8M
Corey Brewer 7.8M

There are obviously some bargain guys below that (JJ Redick, Korver), but this seems like a pretty reasonable (and tradable) deal, even for his 33 y/o season.

The real problem is tying up 42.5% of our 2018-19 cap in Noah and Melo, but you’d hope to offset that with production from 3 years of 1st round picks on rookie deals (16-17, 17-18, 18-19).

@12 – it’s still a signficant portion of the cap…. and it’s not going up past next year… noah and lee are still going to be paid like they are starters… but it’s unlikely that they will be towards the back end….

the only way that we can counteract these effects is by hitting on our draft picks.. and they’ll need to be good….

Well the likely hood of another amnesty clause is probably high so it might not be a real issue.

the only way that we can counteract these effects is by hitting on our draft picks.. and they’ll need to be good….

Yeah, but if we bottom out and tank the only way we can improve is by hitting on our draft picks… That’s basically how you make a good team in the NBA. Full stop. Period. You hit on your draft picks. We’re not gonna be good ever regardless of what we do if we don’t covert first round picks into productive talent on low-paying contracts.

Do people not understand that age 33 is a bad age for a basketball player?

@20 – yes that is def true but it’s more important for us since we don’t have a core that has any kind of sustainability…. depending on what we do next year we’re probably not going to have much if any cap room in 2018… and 2019 we’re def going to be capped out ….

@21 – age 33 is not in and of itself bad… i do think melo has a great shot at being good all the way up until 35 and certainly by the end of his contract… it’s really the fringe players like lee or the guys who have had major injuries like noah…. boston’s big 3 got together when they were all early to mid 30s…. and they were awesome for a good 5 years…

Do people not understand that age 33 is a bad age for a basketball player?

This is another “you’re probably right” thing, but is also a “we don’t know for sure” thing.

Like I wrote on another thread, the publicly available “aging” studies — the Berri study and one from NBAminer.com — are pretty old (Berri) or at least incorporate very old stats (NBAminer). It’s possible (I’m not saying likely, just possible) that those findings no longer hold, or at least that the age-related decline in performance tapers off more slowly nowadays. Maybe it’s training or nutrition differences, or like DRed suggested, PEDs. Whatever. I do think it’s highly likely that NBA teams have much more up to date stats on this kind of thing.

Some relevant players:

Steve Nash – had 3 consecutive 50/40/90 seasons at ages 33, 34, 35. He really fell off in age 36 season with a 49.2/39.5/91.2 and age 37 with 53.2/39/89.4 lol.

Ray Allen – age 33-36 seasons are in many ways indistinguishable from him career averages (earlier in career had higher AST% and USG% but he traded that for higher TS while still maintaining USG of 20)

Tim Duncan – age 33-36 not as good as high mid-late 20s prime, but still amazingly effective until really the last 1.5 seasons (so through age 38)

Kobe Bryant – had arguably his best season at age 34. (did you realize he had a USG of 38.7 in 2005!!! And we thought Melo was a ballhog).

Paul Pierce – some of his best seasons by WS/48 at least were from ages 30-34.

Kyle Korver – two best seasons by far were at ages 32 and 33 (TS 69.9 in 2014-15!?!?!)

if you look at this list of players in the last 5 years who were ages 33-36 playing >24 min/game, there were some really good seasons…

Of course, some players DO fall off a cliff at age 33. Like Tyson Chandler. (sorry, couldn’t resist)

now of course – there’s some selection bias in that list — players who suck will no longer be allowed to play 24+ min/game at ages 33-36. But still – the idea that you fall off a cliff automatically at age 33 just may not be 100% true.

Do people not understand that age 33 is a bad age for a basketball player?

You better tell that to Pop… it seems he has a lot to learn from you. Only 5 of his 10 highest minute players this season were 33+ on his 67 win team…..

I also tend to think that the decline in athleticism that comes with aging and likely leads to decline in production would be less significant for guys like Lee — off-ball, role players with low usage rates who are really only asked to do a couple of things (shoot open 3s and make shots).

If I understand this thread we just need a bunch of old guys and then we’ll win 67 games.

Also bears pointing out that Pop got his old dudes to play for cheap.

I mean, no one [reasonable] is saying the trade was awesome. No one is saying Noah is the next coming of Ewing age 21. No one is saying we’re a young, durable team without injury to worry about.

It’s basically two sides that agree with each other arguing over their perspective:

A: We should rebuild! We are gonna get maybe slightly better or worse with these older guys, but we should be building for KP’s prime and this is not the way! We’re spending our assets on getting stuff that won’t build toward that goal!

B: We should rebuild with youth, but at least maybe this way we have some semblance of entertaining basketball with players that at least used to be good, and at most are exactly what we’ve been missing for years: penetration/defense/toughness/whatever. And if this way we are more attractive to the guys we really do want later, great.

Both sides are right. Sheesh.

You better tell that to Pop… it seems he has a lot to learn from you. Only 5 of his 10 highest minute players this season were 33+ on his 67 win team…..

Yes, let us use a team that has not won fewer than 50 games a season for the last twenty years to make a point about sound roster construction, because they are very much the norm in the NBA.

His very best player — his unequivocal superstar and probably the best two-way player in the regular season this year — was 24.

I didn’t actually say the Rose trade was bad. I said the only justification was that it got the Knicks Noah. No reasonable person could possibly expect that swapping Rose for Lopez alone could make the team better. You can hope it will happen. It’s not out of the question that it could happen. It’s just very unlikely, and every trade is about likelihoods. No one knows the future of any players.

Regarding the cap growth — it has grown pretty consistently since it was created. Things only get weird when the cap growth dramatically outpaces the annual raises built into most contracts, which probably average around 6%. 6% growth over the next three seasons would put the cap at $101m, $107m, $113m the next three seasons. That’s pretty similar to projections for the actual cap.

I would also say that the enormous growth in the cap this season forced teams to price in future cap growth, meaning contracts signed this summer that weren’t for true max playres are probably similar to what you’ll see in a $110m cap.

@23

Five first-ballot hall-of-famers and an all-time great shooter. Okay.

“His very best player — his unequivocal superstar and probably the best two-way player in the regular season this year — was 24.”
Which we’re all kind of hoping will be the case for the Knicks in a few years. I don’t know if anyone mentioned it yet but, yesterday, Draymond Green was arrested for assault. No details are known about the case yet but how funny would it be if he punched someone in the balls…

Five first-ballot hall-of-famers and an all-time great shooter. Okay.

I already said there was selection bias, but fine-

Mike Dunleavy – 5 of his 6 best years by WS/48 after age 30.

Shane Battier – basically 2 career average seasons at age 33 and 34 (playing with LBJ might have something to do with that)

Denver Chauncey Billups (ages 32-34) basically indistinguishable from previous Chauncey Billups (WS/48 in 170 range, TS in 60-62 range)

David West – 5 out of 6 seasons from ages 30-35 with a WS/48 higher than his career average. Highest TS of his career at age 35

And re: Korver, who is surely an all-time great shooter –> he didn’t fulfill his potential until he went to Atlanta and played for Budenholzer — at ages 31-34. Highest volume of 3’s, highest TS’s by far.

I’m not saying age 33 is a good thing — I’m just saying that it’s not definitely a bad thing. Yes, I’d rather have a bunch of 26 year olds in their prime, but I don’t think 26 year old prime injury-free Joakim Noahs are available at a submax contract.

@Frank, do you really think picking names is a fair way of measuring age curve? Human bodies are all different, and some people just get lucky in terms of durability. Look at the big picture. Here:

# of players this past season with WS/48 > .110 and MP > 2000 last season by age:

24 and below: 11
25-26: 19
27-28: 9
29-30: 10
31-32: 5
33-34: 0
35-36: 1
37+: 1

Yes, I’d rather have a bunch of 26 year olds in their prime, but I don’t think 26 year old prime injury-free Joakim Noahs are available at a submax contract.

Yeah pretty much this. I’m not sure which 24-26 year old, above-average players on below market value contracts we could have acquired this summer. I’m guessing the answer is zero. Those are the kind of players you have to draft. And Phil can’t go back in time and get our wasted picks back. So far he’s hit it out of the park with Porzingis and that’s afforded him the luxury of overspending (slightly) on players like Noah who complement him perfectly.

I’m not as convinced as those who see the Rose/Noah/Lee moves as some sort of long-term debacle.
I certainly see risk.
But this team as constructed was going no where, short or long term.
Knicks are in a better recruiting position next year with Noah, Melo and KP than they would have been with Melo and KP and a list of ragtag role players.
If this team can post a playoff run, it becomes that much more attractive as a destination than if this team again was terrible.
Were there better FAs out there? Yes. Were the Knicks ever in play? No.
Status quo was not an option. I, for one, wouldn’t watch, and I might have chosen a new favorite team. I have noticed over the years that how I feel is often fairly representative of a much larger common audience. I think a lot of people would have tuned out.
The Knicks have not been relevant for too long.
Rose, Noah and Lee coupled with KP gives the Knicks a story to tell.
And as convinced as people are that this experiment will fail, I’m just as convinced that it might not.
Rose’s stats were not great. A good portion of last year he played with double vision from the freak fracture in his face. But I would argue playing 66 games was an improvement over the prior years.
Noah and Lee are worth the bet that they will be among the types of players that will be effective as they get older. Noah is a smart guy. He will learn to be effective even if his physical skills decline. Remember, Noah’s greatest contributions are that he rebounds, defends and passes exceptionally well. Those are skills you can carry into old age. And there is every chance that KP’s rise will offset both Melo’s and Noah’s inevitable declines.
Try as I might, and there are a lot of people trying to convince the whole that this is a disaster, I can’t get to where a lot of folks are in terms of the expected failure.

Yes, I’d rather have a bunch of 26 year olds in their prime, but I don’t think 26 year old prime injury-free Joakim Noahs are available at a submax contract.

Well there was Biyombo, who is nearly a decade younger, has been more productive the last two seasons, and didn’t come as a package deal with the worst point guard in the NBA. And yes, I know Noah is definitely better at some things (playmaking), but I don’t know if that’s worth the 8 additional years and Rose acquisition. In fact I’m pretty sure it isn’t at all.

@Frank, do you really think picking names is a fair way of measuring age curve? Human bodies are all different, and some people just get lucky in terms of durability. Look at the big picture. Here:

# of players this past season with WS/48 > .110 and MP > 2000 last season by age:

Again, like wetbandit said, you guys are exaggerating the positions of those of us who are looking at this optimistically. As I understand it, Frank is not using his examples as proof that Noah, Melo, and Lee will age gracefully, but rather suggesting that because there are certain players who have aged well in the past, we can hope that our guys aren’t doomed to decline as soon as they hit 32-33 years of age. Like you said “all bodies are different,” maybe Melo is more Amar’e than David West (age:production, speaking), but we won’t know until he actually ages. So far, his play has been fine.

None of us are saying that we are destined for greatness with this roster. We are instead saying that it is possible to hope we will get decent to good production out of our guys and that we aren’t totally screwed for the future.

I mean, even the most negative of pessimists can agree that there is a possible scenario in which we become a good to great team in a few years. Obviously the counter argument, which has been beaten to death, is that we gave up too much to get Rose, etc., and here we go again.

And three years from now the Knicks will have added a couple first round picks and a second rounder, younger top flight talent complementing the aging Melo, Noah and Lee. And an in-his-prime KP.
Most great teams balance the young and old.
I’m quite eager to see how this plays out.

@35 – fair point…

BUT — one could also look at it as — if you’re still playing in the NBA at age 33, then you’re already an outlier and able to play well.

Anyway – in 2014-15, 5 players 33+ made the cut — Dirk, Pau, Duncan, Korver, Zach Randolph

2013-14 –> 6 made the cutoff – Dirk, West, Duncan, Dunleavy, Crawford, Pierce

2012-13 –> 9 made the cutoff – Kobe, Duncan, Pierce, Vince Carter, Garnett, Ray Allen, Jason Kidd, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion. 9 is the same amount as made it for 27-28 year olds this year.

and btw – Jowles jokes that i’m only choosing all-time greats, but again, only really good players can last in the league that long. It’s conceivable that Melo and Noah will belong in that select group.

Again, not likely as in “of course they won’t decline”. It’s just not definitely bad.

If the best thing you can say about an entire offseason is “it doesn’t have a 100% chance of being a disaster”, that’s bad. Yes, there technically is a non-zero chance that Rose plays well, Noah bounces back, Porzingis makes a huge leap, etc. No one can say for sure that these things won’t happen, but no move is ever made with total certainty.

Moves are made based on probability, and smart teams make moves that either have a high probability of working out or don’t have much of a negative impact if they don’t. Very few, if any, of our moves this offseason fit either description. I guess Jennings fits the latter, so that’s good. Everything else is pretty murky, or in the case of the Rose trade unambiguously awful.

Even if you believe that Rose is going to have a bounceback season, or that Rose was necessary to recruit Noah and Lee (if you even regard those as good moves), the reason why the Rose trade was so bad is that there is no upside to it. If he’s bad, the team will be bad, we’ll have given Lopez and Grant away for nothing, and we’ll have wasted a year of Melo/Noah/Lee (older guys who only have a few years left). If he’s good, we’ll almost certainty resign him to a multi-year contract. Anyone who thinks Phil is going to let him walk after a solid season isn’t being realistic.

Step 1: Phil trades for Rose and predicts bounceback season.
Step 2: Rose has bounceback season.
Step 3: Phil lets him walk for nothing???

Doesn’t make sense. Unless CP3 or Westbrook calls Phil at home and promises to take Rose’s place, Phil will feel validated about the Rose trade and give the guy a new deal. And we can all probably agree that a multi-year deal for a guy with three knee surgeries in four years, whose games relies completely on his explosiveness, is a nightmarish investment.

So I honestly don’t know what to root for this year. Do I want Rose to play well? Do I want him to play poorly? And the fact that we as fans are in that position, potentially rooting against our own players and having no good outcomes, speaks to how little foresight went into that trade.

If the best thing you can say about an entire offseason is “it doesn’t have a 100% chance of being a disaster”, that’s bad.

But that’s not the best thing you can say about this offseason. The best thing you can say about this offseason is as follows:

We got a good coach who follows analytics, likes to play a more up-tempo style and is not wedded to the triangle.
We made one move that probably won’t work out but might and does not hurt our long term flexibility.
We made a move for an aging center who will probably give us at least one productive season but will also help mentor our young bigs and will generally be a good presence in the locker room.
We made a move for a capable starting 2-guard who will be one of the best defenders we’ve had at the position and is on a reasonable contract.
We brought in some upside young guys in Willy H and Kuz who might be able to contribute.
We have ALL of our draft picks for the future. All of them.

So please, tell me how this is a disaster.

A good portion of the players you list, Frank, had declined significantly by age 33. If you apply that same decline to Melo, he becomes a bench player (especially if you consider the last two seasons the new normal for him).

And on the subject of getting sub 25 quality players — there are dozens of players in the league right now who are or are headed towards quality starter level who at some point in their past could have been acquired for less than we gave up for Rose. That doesn’t include the far longer list of players who were drafted with picks that could have been acquired for less than what we gave up for Rose.

If you go look at those players, you’ll find they generally play on better teams than ours. I wonder why.

Biyombo is an example of low usage with high efficiency translating to greater than expected advanced stats. Here is another center, who averages less than four shots per game, ~70% at the rim, on 22 min per game, and less than 5 points a game. He gets a decent amount of rebounds. But that’s it. I just don’t know if WS and TS captures low-usage high-efficiency players that well. Obviously, his defense is good. But not great.

Can we please stop the Rose got us Noah narrative. We signed Noah to a big contract, he gave us no discount at all, not in money or years. He always dreamed of playing for the Knicks and we still had a pretty attractive team with Melo and KP. Maybe he wouldn’t have signed here but are we really saying that without Rose if we had shown up day one with a blank check and said play for us he would have said no.

Let’s look at a slightly alternative universe. We don’t trade for Rose, we use Lopez to get some kind of asset and then trade that asset to move Calderon so they are gone. We sign Noah and Jennings to identical contracts, and if we lose out on Lee, which would probably have been good anyway, we sign someone like Daniels, still resign Lance, sign Kuz and Hernangomez and we are looking at the same team minus Rose and Lee with Daniels and Grant instead and still like 15 million in cap space to get more players. Isn’t that a much more attractive universe. Maybe that cap space gets us Lin and Jones or Lin and Sullinger, or Jack on a minimum deal, etc. The Rose trade didn’t help in any way.

We made one move that probably won’t work out but might and does not hurt our long term flexibility.

A few things wrong with this. First of all, for the reasons OakmanCometh just mentioned, it’s actually very difficult to see a scenario in which the Rose trade “works out”. Second, this was not a low-risk, high-reward move. We gave up two undeniably positive assets. That absolutely does hurt our long term outlook, because instead of picks or, you know, the good pieces we gave away, we have the memories of the Derrick Rose era. Make no mistake, if Rose sucks we really fucked up.

We made a move for an aging center who will probably give us at least one productive season but will also help mentor our young bigs and will generally be a good presence in the locker room.

And we’re highly unlikely to be all that good for that one productive season, and even if he gives us 2-3, we’re still a CP3/Westbrook Hail Marry away from being good during any of those either. I’ve actually always really liked Noah as a player and person, but the contract doesn’t make much sense for our situation.

We made a move for a capable starting 2-guard who will be one of the best defenders we’ve had at the position and is on a reasonable contract.

This says a lot more about the defenders we’ve had at the position than it does about Courtney Lee. Defensive metrics are admittedly shaky but none seem too keen on him. This deal wasn’t a disaster, but again, just doesn’t make a ton of sense given his age and our timetable.

We brought in some upside young guys in Willy H and Kuz who might be able to contribute.
We have ALL of our draft picks for the future. All of them.

I’m all for gambling on the Euro guys, but since they’re unlikely to be major contributors, ever, it hardly redeems everything else. The second thing is pretty much the bare minimum for…

Phil can’t go back in time and get our wasted picks back

I mean, yes, he couldn’t undo the Bargnani trade. But he could have traded Chandler, Shumpert, and Lopez for picks instead of bundling them all for cap space. That is something he could have done, as well as S&T Anthony to Chicago in 2014 for picks and young players. Those were all options that would have provided for a better hope in the future, instead of an unambitious playoff contention in the now.

Biyombo is an example of low usage with high efficiency translating to greater than expected advanced stats. Here is another center, who averages less than four shots per game, ~70% at the rim, on 22 min per game, and less than 5 points a game. He gets a decent amount of rebounds. But that’s it. I just don’t know if WS and TS captures low-usage high-efficiency players that well. Obviously, his defense is good. But not great.

It is in fact pretty difficult to find a rotation player who scores less frequently than him. From last season, only Joakim Noah comes to mind.

@44

SJK, I appreciate your optimism. But most of those points are dubious arguments.

We got a good coach who follows analytics, likes to play a more up-tempo style and is not wedded to the triangle. Fair.

We made one move that probably won’t work out but might and does not hurt our long term flexibility. As I mentioned in #43, there really is no upside for this move, so its outcomes range from “not too destructive” to “terribly destructive.”

We made a move for an aging center who will probably give us at least one productive season but will also help mentor our young bigs and will generally be a good presence in the locker room. One good season for a guy signed for four years at big money is a horrific investment. You can get good mentors on minimum salary contracts.

We made a move for a capable starting 2-guard who will be one of the best defenders we’ve had at the position and is on a reasonable contract. Fair.

We brought in some upside young guys in Willy H and Kuz who might be able to contribute. Kuz will be 27 to start the season, so he really has no upside left. Willy is young and could improve but all scouting reports have him as a pretty limited player. Other than hope, there’s not much evidence that these guys will be more than 10 mpg role players.

We have ALL of our draft picks for the future. All of them. We don’t have any of our 2nd rounders until I think 2021. We do have our 1st rounders, which is great. Very glad Phil didn’t trade them away. But should it be considered a great accomplishment to not give assets away? Phil didn’t trade Porzingis for Kosta Koufos or Kobe Bryant or a 2042 2nd round pick either, but I’m not going to put that in his win column.

Calling someone an optimist on this blog is the equivalent to a slur lol

The Amare Deal, along with the Melo and Bargnani trades stripped the Knicks of all of their assets over the past 5 seasons. They’ve won 49 games in 2 seasons. They had the worst backcourt in the NBA since Jason Kidd left, the Backcourt cost them at least 10 games last season (Calderon and Sashsa?). They’ve had one first round Draft pick in the past 3 years. No respectable Free Agent would even give them a meeting the last two seasons. Phil hired a rookie Coach, threw him under the Bus, tried to stick his unqualified Friend in as Coach until the Player/Media/Fan/Dolan Backlash was too overwhelming. Jackson had struck rock bottom. Another bottom 5 season with Melo, Porzingis and 3rd string or D League talents would not even guarantee the first pick in next years Draft and Zero chance at a 2017 Free Agent. That’s 11 more months of losing Basketball and bogus Free Agent Speculation in year 3 of Jackson’s 5 Year Plan. The Garden was a Morgue. No one could stomach another 25 home losses. This constant revolving door of 1-2 year players was going to end when??. The Knicks looked like a pickup game at Rucker Park. Phil needed real NBA players that were not just looking to play out their options. They needed to put players, especially Guards around Porzingis right now who can acutally get into the paint and collapse a defense. Rose and Jennings should get him easier shots. KP remains is the key to the whole team; as his total game develops, the Knicks will make a significant leap. Hornacek is a smart, promising young Coach that can facilitate that development. They just signed 2 young European players, and have all of their future Draft Picks and cap room, so they can still win more games short term and keep some continuity while building this team long term through the Draft. Phil can now leave assets in the cupboard for the Next GM. Cleveland and Golden State will rule the NBA the next 4-5 seasons, so the Knicks just keep needing to add a piece every season.

I do think it’s worth mentioning that Noah has played at least 2,000 min a year every year except last year and his rookie year. So I’m not sure he’s as much of an injury risk as everyone thinks, certainly less so than Rose. Also overlooked, healthy Robin Lopez only gives about 2,000 min a year because of his low mpg. Noah playing 65 games = RoLo playing 82.

We don’t have any of our 2nd rounders until I think 2021. We do have our 1st rounders, which is great. Very glad Phil didn’t trade them away. But should it be considered a great accomplishment to not give assets away? Phil didn’t trade Porzingis for Kosta Koufos or Kobe Bryant or a 2042 2nd round pick either, but I’m not going to put that in his win column.

Not sure how accurate this is Knicks future picks, but it shows we have none of our own 2nd rounders until 2021, but we do have 2 in 2017 (Chi and Hou)and 2 in 2019 (worst 2 of Cle, Hou, Orl). 2nd rounders tend not to be all that valuable so I don’t think it’s a huge deal. We’re down a net of one 2nd rounder. All these 2nd rounders should be lower than our own, but I’m not sure how much draft position in 2nd round actually correlates to value. 2nd round always seems like a crap shoot.

I’m happy with the way that this conversation has turned. In particular:

@20 SJK

Yeah, but if we bottom out and tank the only way we can improve is by hitting on our draft picks… That’s basically how you make a good team in the NBA. Full stop. Period. You hit on your draft picks. We’re not gonna be good ever regardless of what we do if we don’t covert first round picks into productive talent on low-paying contracts.

@40 Frank O:

Most great teams balance the young and old.
I’m quite eager to see how this plays out.

These expresses my feelings precisely. We need to draft well so we have young players that can develop. For them to evolve and grow they need to be in a winning environment. I’m an eternal pessimist (forget the glass-half-full; there’s not a drop of liquid in that glass). For me to not sit here with a woe-is-me attitude about the Knicks future is a miracle.

Not sure how accurate this is Knicks future picks, but it shows we have none of our own 2nd rounders until 2021, but we do have 2 in 2017 (Chi and Hou)and 2 in 2019 (worst 2 of Cle, Hou, Orl). 2nd rounders tend not to be all that valuable so I don’t think it’s a huge deal. We’re down a net of one 2nd rounder

We do have a 2018 pick – it’s a swap with Philly, so we get the lower of the 2.

And again for all the so-called “realists”, who call themselves “realists” because they believe so strongly they’re right:

There are possibilities other than Derrick Rose is awful or Derrick Rose is just barely better than awful and then signed to a 4 year max contract.

It is possible that he’s actually ok, or even pretty good.

It is possible that he’s even pretty good and still is not resigned to mega contract.

It is possible that he’s even pretty good and still is not resigned to mega contract because we signed Westbrook or CP3 instead.

It is possible that he’s even pretty good and still is not resigned to mega contract because we sign him to a reasonable contract.

It is possible that this team is actually fun to watch and brings us joy.

It’s possible that Noah is actually healthy. It’s hard to base someone’s future production on a 2014-15 season in which he played on a knee that wasn’t 100%, and 2015-16 season in which he missed most of the season with a shoulder injury.

Re: Rose – this is just not the Bargnani situation. (disclaimer – I definitely was optimistic about Bargnani and for that I am eternally sorry). Bargnani was never a good player. Rose was the MVP. It’s just different.

The New York Knicks are just simply a bad to mediocre sports franchise, and what the franchise desperately needs is a visionary GM that can help break this shitty cycle of little mini-booms followed by soul-crushing bust periods. Phil Jackson ain’t that GM. We’re stuck on the mediocrity treadmill. The only real unanswered questions are whether this team can squeeze out a decent 45-win type season before imploding, and whether or not Derrick Rose will hoodwink his way into a franchise-killing extension.

My crystal ball says the 2016-2017 team is a 38-win disappointment, and that the following two seasons are just downhill from there. I’d like to be wrong about that. We’ll see.

i really hope we can stop with the rhetoric that having all our draft picks equates to some amazing accomplishment…. relatively speak yes it’s better than what we’ve experienced in the past but that still puts us in the exact position that 25 franchises are in….

it’s just normal behavior… no more .. no less…. phil should not be getting credit for avoiding the worst possible move….

41 wins and then two disappointing seasons. That’s my prediction, book it….

@52 All optimists should really be banned from this site because they must be trolling!

Anyone notice that Celtics lottery pick Jaylen Brown is shooting 19% in summer league? Can you imagine if Phil had drafted him instead of Dunn?

And what about 2014 draft pick Joel Embiid? When’s he ever going to play for the 76’ers? They’re hoping for this year, I’m sure.

Just so everyone knows, there’s players available other than CP3 and Westbrook.
Possible PG’s in 2017 FA:
Kyle Lowry (player option)
Steph Curry (unrestricted)
Shaun Livingston (unrestricted)
Jeff Teague (unrestricted)
Dennis Schroeder (restricted)
Darren Collison (unrestricted)

Probably some others that I missed too. Sure, we probably won’t have a chance at Steph Curry, but anyone who can get out of their contract will (barring injury this year). Point is there’s options outside of resign Rose or CP3/Westbrook. And this is only at the PG position. There’s another 4 positions we can sign people at!

RE: age curves
If you’re modeling curves you gotta start by looking at whether the average curve is even a decent approximation of the population of curves you’re interested in. Frequently it isn’t. E.g., if you have 5 years of data and 40% of the curves spike in year two then level off and the other 60% stays low till year 4 then spikes, the average curve will look nothing like any of the actual curves you’re trying to model. Inferences based on the assumption that it is a good representation will be highly misleading.

You’ve got to check first to see if you’ve got a homogeneous population. Subpopulations might not just be outliers in the tail of a distribution. They might be different kinds of people that follow different characteristic trajectories. This happens in lots of domains.

I don’t know if the analyses of age and hoops performance have used a 2-stage modeling approach to find the most parsimonious number of trajectories first or just assumed the average was good. I wouldn’t put much faith in results that skip that first step.

Skill development in lots of domains is characterized by a largish percent of people reaching a degree of mastery and then plateauing. A smallish sub-population continues to develop and/or learns compensatory strategies that counteract the effects of declining abilities on performance.

I like this new “damn with faint praise” tactic some people are trying on.

“Hey, look at the blunder that Team X made! See, at least Phil didn’t do that!”

It’s never going to be a 100% accurate science but it’s generally not smart to acquire a bunch of players who used to be better than they are now, and to hope they get better again instead of continuing to decline. That usually leads to disappointment.

vincoug: Fisher! Please tell me how you got that shot chart? I haven’t been able to figure it out since NBA.com changed their stats page a few years ago.

When you’re looking at a player’s stats @ stats.nba.com, you can click on his FGA, and a little pop up comes up in which you can click to view video of all his FGAs or view a shot chart. You can do this for a lot of different stats (at least see the video).

@64

There are plenty of PGs available beyond CP3/Westbrook. If I’m offering a 4-year contract, I’d rather sign everyone on your list than Rose. The problem is I don’t think Phil feels that way. He gave up assets to get Rose, so we know he likes the guy. Human nature being what it is, if Rose “proves him right” by having a decent season, Phil will feel vindicated in the trade and rate Rose even more highly than he already does. (Not to mention that Phil probably has a bigger ego than most people, given his personality and history of success.)

So, faced with a free agent list of CP3, Westbrook, Lowry, Curry, Teague, Livingston, etc, my guess is he would value Rose more highly than everyone but the most obvious upgrades (i.e. CP3, Westbrook, and Curry). CP3 is going to want to be on a guaranteed contender, given his age and poor playoff history, so it’s doubtful he’s coming here. Curry isn’t leaving Golden State. Westbrook is a possibility, though if he gets traded this year he will probably sign a 5-year max with his new team.

That leaves Rose as the highest guy on Phil’s list. Which is terrifying. I just don’t see a world where Rose plays decently in 2016-17 and Phil dumps him for Jeff Teague.

@69- cmon dude. This is conjecture on top of conjecture with an extra helping of speculation. How do you even get out of bed in the morning?

Yeah, Frank, it’s unreasonable. Pessimists often laud themselves for being ‘realists’, but they often forget the dumbass predictions/worries that they had made that turned out to be false, then come up with something else to worry about. Here’s a partial list, feel free to add:

– NO! We’re gonna have Rambis as HC! (Oh, Phil was forced not to sign him because of media pressure lol! Like that has stopped him before)

– NO! We’re gonna sign Conley!

– NO! We’re gonna sign Rondo!

– NO! Wroten sucks!

And my favorite:

– Why are we keeping Lopez if he’s average??! Trade him for the third pick! (Sez Cock Jowles: “the circlejerk on Robin Lopez’s mediocre production continues” )

These arguments for the past few weeks have boiled down to two sides.

1) people who bemoan the moves the Knicks have made and talk about how they should have done other things instead.

2) people who feel ambivalent about the moves, liked the moves, or didn’t like them that much but are trying to think of ways that it might work out.

It’s basically this is what we should’ve done vs this is what we did here’s how it might work out. Personally, I find the former to be very whiney. Sorry, I don’t mean to make personal attacks but what’s done is done and nothing written on this blog is going to change it. Call the latter hopefulness, blind optimism, whatever you want.

PS I’m not saying you shouldn’t be pessimistic. Feel however you want. But I think you should understand that were just postulating on how this might work because we want to watch entertaining basketball.

It’s blind optimism and part stupidity. Whatever.

Ah Jowles with the grade A condescending “stupidity” can’t argue. It’s stupid

When you’re looking at a player’s stats @ stats.nba.com, you can click on his FGA, and a little pop up comes up in which you can click to view video of all his FGAs or view a shot chart. You can do this for a lot of different stats (at least see the video).

Thank you!

Firstly Derrick Rose has been playing chicken for darn near the entire 2015-2016 season. You don’t think it’s odd that just a year before when Thins was the coach his numbers looked completely different? The system was not ran right in Chicago when Hoiberg took over. He ran the offense through Butler & Gasol. Butler isn’t a great shooter and he doesn’t have a Iso. Which is why thibs didn’t run the offense through him.
Rose isn’t stupid & he’s a coachable guy. Rose went standing out on the perimeter doing nothing on purpose it’s how hoiberg wrote it up. Plus Jimmy wanted to prove he was the leader of the team….and they didn’t make the playoffs and Rose was healthy all season. There’s not a coincidence that rose looked like two different players before and after the all star break.
This is a contract year for him anybody who thinks he’s magicly lost his basketball skill or can’t play is smoking something. He knows he’s got to be at least a all star and I don’t think he’ll be any less than that. Anybody who has been working out with rose will tell you he’s the same… & he was going to leave the Bulls in free agency. They hadn’t been taking care of his injuries well anyway by being cheap. Also doctors told the media was wasn’t even cleared to play after Gibson broke his eye. But Chicago GMs told him he was cleared.

Wanting to play like an All-Star and playing like an All-Star are two completely different things.

Rose’s game was broken before Hoiberg took over. He’s washed up and will be an expiring dud, or he’ll squeeze a 50 TS% on 25 USG% this year and get a max deal from Jackson. Hard to see it going any other way.

And who wouldn’t want Jerian Grant still leading this team and falling down a lot with Jose stuck on the roster? How could Phil give all that up?

Rose is going to have a great year cause contract and health plus Hornacek.

reub, what in your opinion is the worst team in the league right now, and what would the Knicks’ record be if they swapped rosters with that team?

NO! We’re gonna have Rambis as HC! (Oh, Phil was forced not to sign him because of media pressure lol! Like that has stopped him before)

Wait, that was Frank, a resident In Phil We Truster, leading the Fire Phil brigade on that one. (I’m so confused now, my head is spinning)

Rose sucked because of Jimmy Butler.
Rose sucked because of Fred Hoiberg.
Rose sucked because he was injured but now he’s healthy.
Rose sucked but now he’s playing for a contract so he’ll stop sucking.

Sound logic all around.

Gotta say I am pretty keen for the season to start (heck even training camp!) so we can start to move on from the current Rose discussion. I get that he is going to be a pretty intriguing and polarizing point of discussion for the whole year, but I think it’s time we need to see how he performs at camp so we can knock some of this discussion on his head and get some answers. I think just about every argument for and against either a) the trade; or b) his potential production have been put forward ad nauseum.

Whoa, I think I’m seeing double. (My head must really be spinning:)

If we removed our two best players (Porzingis and Carmelo) and then compared our team to every other team minus their two best players how many teams are actually worse than ours?

Rose’s game was broken before Hoiberg took over. He’s washed up and will be an expiring dud, or he’ll squeeze a 50 TS% on 25 USG% this year and get a max deal from Jackson. Hard to see it going any other way.

Must be comforting going through life thinking there are only black and white outcomes for any situation. Makes life much less complex, right?

Rose sucked because of Jimmy Butler.
Rose sucked because of Fred Hoiberg.
Rose sucked because he was injured but now he’s healthy.
Rose sucked but now he’s playing for a contract so he’ll stop sucking.

I think for the most part he sucked because he’s not that good anymore. But it’s possible a large part of his suckage was related to injuries, since you know, he was injured. And playing pro basketball at the highest level with 1 eye for 1/3 of the season, which, if you’ve ever tried driving with one contact lens out, seems hard. And some superficial analysis (by me and others) suggests that both Rose and Butler played better when the other was off the floor.

Look, these are not necessarily opinions. He WAS injured. He DID play while seeing double until at least mid-December. At least somewhat simple analysis of these things called statistics DID show that he played better (not great, just better) with Butler off the floor. Conversely, your certainty that he’s going to suck is, in fact, opinion. Because it’s the future and it hasn’t happened yet.
Yet the “optimists” are the ones who are being ridiculed.

Again – you’re probably right. NO ONE IS DISPUTING THAT. We’re just not as sure of the unknowable as you apparently are.

i’m pretty excited for the season… if anything this is a very likable team and how much of a leap porzingis takes is one of those franchise changing questions that is going to have more of an impact on our future more than any FA or anyone getting hurt….

Whoa, I think I’m seeing double. (My head must really be spinning:)

right, now try dribbling into traffic to score over Rudy Gobert. that’s what Rose was doing for the first 1/3 season. =)

Must be comforting going through life thinking there are only black and white outcomes for any situation. Makes life much less complex, right?

There’s a black-and-white pair of outcomes when you shoot a basketball and Derrick Rose had way more whites than blacks last season. You think there’s a good possibility that that will change. You are wrong.

It’s possible that Derrick Rose is coming to my birthday party this year but it’s definitely not likely. I am really looking forward to being right this year because of how much you’ve dug your heels in on this “Derrick Rose is not the shittiest starter in the league” thing.

I think Mudiay was his only competition last year. Mudiay’s about to start his sophomore year. We might see Rose atop Mount Suckmore in May. And then we might see him get a max deal.

Kobe’s not in the league anymore, so that’s one guy D-Rose won’t have to compete with.

You guys are incorrigible. In a league where putting a hand in someones face while he’s shooting is considered a key part of defense, you think having good vision all year instead of half the year won’t result in an improvement in Rose’s shooting? I’m not saying he’s going to be a TS% god, but given that he was at the absolute bottom of the league last year from what you write here; it’s impossible to believe that there is no chance he will improve this year.

Okay, fine. There is a small chance Derrick Rose could substantially improve. It’s unlikely, but theoretically possible. It was still a fucking terrible decision to bring him in here, because it’s a whole lot more likely that he will stink. But he might not! So yay Phil!

There, everybody happy now?

Y’all know me, I’m firmly in the “trades have to be judged based on the information available at the time of the trade” camp when it comes to judging deals, so yes, even if Derrick Rose miraculously recovers his pre-injury form, it’s a bad trade because the chances of that happening are slim to none. However, that doesn’t mean that I won’t be rooting like heck for it to happen. I’d be thrilled if Rose became pre-injury Rose. Pre-injury Rose was a blast to watch. And sure, it’s at least possible that it could happen, so I’m fine with folks clinging to that possibility, provided they aren’t trying to argue that it is a good trade. And I don’t think anyone is seriously arguing that it was a good trade, so I’m cool with everyone on this point – I’ll be right there with you folks hoping that the slim possibility occurs.

@Brian – agree 1000%.
I don’t know why I keep getting dragged back into this fight.

Rose hasn’t been good the last 2+ years.
Rose probably won’t be great this year.
There are some reasons why he might be better than he was. It’s not likely but it’s possible. He’s only 27.

Man, it would be awesome if he returned to pre-injury Rose.
And I do not think it was a good trade.
Done!

Y’all know me, I’m firmly in the “trades have to be judged based on the information available at the time of the trade” camp when it comes to judging deals, so yes, even if Derrick Rose miraculously recovers his pre-injury form, it’s a bad trade because the chances of that happening are slim to none. However, that doesn’t mean that I won’t be rooting like heck for it to happen. I’d be thrilled if Rose became pre-injury Rose. Pre-injury Rose was a blast to watch. And sure, it’s at least possible that it could happen, so I’m fine with folks clinging to that possibility, provided they aren’t trying to argue that it is a good trade. And I don’t think anyone is seriously arguing that it was a good trade, so I’m cool with everyone on this point – I’ll be right there with you folks hoping that the slim possibility occurs.

And as usual, I vehemently disagree. I think that transactions (trades, FA signings, draft picks) can’t be judged until you see outcomes. The information that YOU have available is not the same as what GMs have available. The analytical resources (including professional scouts) that YOU have available is not the same as what GMs have available. The pressures YOU are under to be correct are not the same as theirs. I’m not deferring to authority here. I’m just saying that it’s kind of like saying that a certain Black Jack play is wrong no matter how it turns out, but not realizing that the odds are different because the specific player is counting cards, i.e. has access to information that the outside observer doesn’t.

So if you think that the odds are 80-20 against Rose regaining top-10 PG form but Phil has inside info (medical reports, workout info, scouting reports, etc.) that makes the “true” odds more like 60-40 against, the risk is still there, but much less than you perceived with your limited info. So if Rose returns to form, it makes no sense for you to criticize the deal in hindsight.

Comments are closed.