Knicks Morning News (2016.06.27)

  • [ESPN.com – New York Knicks] Source: Six teams scheduled to meet Durant (Mon, 27 Jun 2016 05:59:09 EST)

    Source: Six teams scheduled to meet Durant

  • [ESPN.com – New York Knicks] Monday's Knicks Links: New York still hoping to land meeting with Durant (Mon, 27 Jun 2016 05:33:44 EST)

    Monday's Knicks Links: New York still hoping to land meeting with Durant

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    Mike Kurylo

    Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

    227 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2016.06.27)”

    1. Like Brian wrote in the prev thread, the Rose trade was move 1 out of probably 4-5 this offseason. We don’t know yet what the plan is going to be. But this morning I’m more pessimistic than I was before, mostly because I hadn’t had time to sit down to do the math. I spent a little time with Excel this morning to try and project the next couple years, and it’s not that great.

      Thinking just about this coming season (post-Rose-trade), my hope was that we would bring Willie H over (rumored 4y/$5MM) then could sign Noah and Bazemore to get to the cap (about $30.7 MM between the two of them), then try and convince Lance Thomas and Galloway to sign for the early bird number (estimating it to be ~$6MM) allowing us to go above the cap to sign them.

      If we did that, then assuming 2 minimum cap holds of 543, 471 and the 10 non-minimum players being Melo, Rose, Noah, Bazemore, Porzingis, KOQ, Lance, Holiday, Galloway, Willie H, our total salary for this year would be about 101.MM. That team is actually pretty good IMHO. Could be a top 6 seed. Fine.

      however – with these assumptions about 2017-18:
      1) Cap = $108MM
      2) 4.5% raises for Noah, Bazemore, Lance, Galloway
      3) No trades
      4) Renouncing Rose’s cap hold

      We would only have $27.35MM of space, which would not even be enough space for one supermax. I mean, not even close since the supermax would be 35% of cap ($tarting at $37+MM!) for KD/CP3/LBJ or 30% of cap ($tarting at 32.1MM) for Russ or Steph.

      We would have to trade off KOQ (maybe could actually get a 2nd rounder for that) and potentially one of Thomas or Galloway to get to just 1 tier-1 max player.

      The trouble is – I am sure that Thomas’s agent knows this as well, which will make him steer Lance elsewhere (he’ll prob get bigger than $6MM offers). Which makes it less likely we will be able to sign him for what will probably be an undermarket contract. Which is unfortunate because I really like Lance’s game and intangibles.

    2. I do think Galloway will come back because of the Arenas restriction.
      But the math probably indicates that Galloway is going to be our backup PG this year and that Thomas will probably not be re-signed.
      So if we DO sign Bazemore/Noah then our starting lineup would be:

      PG: Rose
      SG: Bazemore
      SF: Melo
      PF: KP
      C: Noah

      4 guard rotation = Rose, Bazemore, Galloway, Holiday

      Holiday and/or Bazemore would likely have to backup Melo at the SF position, which is probably ok, but it’d be way better with Lance.

      Actually now that I think about it, the math is even worse for 2017-18 because of the cap hold for a 1st round pick, which will probably be at least $1.5MM or ~$1MM more than a minimum cap hold.

      Brian/Ephus or others – is my math right?

    3. One more permutation. Perhaps a “what we should have done”.

      let’s say the Rose trade never happened. We’d have Anthony, Lopez, Grant, KP, KOQ, Willie H, Calderon under contract, and EB cap holds on Lance and Galloway. Roughly still $31MM in cap space.

      we’d still have a huge hole in the backcourt. let’s say we trust Grant/Calderon/Galloway to run the PG position well enough to compete. A reasonable alternative plan to the Rose trade could have been:

      Sign Bazemore for the same amount as proposed above — 4 year deal starting at ~$15MM. We would have $15.7MM left (using LG/LT cap holds) before going over cap with EB.

      We could have rented out that cap space to, say New Orleans for Tyreke Evans, who has 1 year ~$10MM left, perhaps extracting a future pick. We could then probably clear space to take Jodie Meeks from Detroit, extracting another future pick. Then go over the cap to sign Gallo and Thomas.

      Even then, assuming Evans/Meeks are renounced – we would only have about $26MM in space for 2017-18 with Melo, Lopez, Grant, Bazemore, KP, KOQ, Willie H, Thomas, and Galloway under contract.

      but then at that point, if you believe you could get a late 1st round pick without taking salary back for Lopez, you’d have enough for 1 supermax, and could theoretically have 4-5 draft picks for next year’s draft. But you’d still need a center unless KP is ready by then to play at the 5 full-time. Which might be true.

    4. Frank — agree 100pct that that would have been be a far superior plan to the one currently in process. Alas…

    5. We would have to trade off KOQ (maybe could actually get a 2nd rounder for that) and potentially one of Thomas or Galloway to get to just 1 tier-1 max player.

      I don’t think Lance is going anywhere to be honest. They want him here and this is the first team that actually gave him an opportunity after bouncing around the league for awhile. He has one year of good shooting to his credit, he can’t rebound at all and he got injured the 2nd half of last year. I don’t see him getting priced out.

      We would only have $27.35MM of space, which would not even be enough space for one supermax. I mean, not even close since the supermax would be 35% of cap ($tarting at $37+MM!) for KD/CP3/LBJ or 30% of cap ($tarting at 32.1MM) for Russ or Steph.

      Like you said, if we move KOQ we’re virtually right there for the 30% max in your scenario. If the cap exceeds the projection as it has the last 2 years, then we’d be fine there and if we needed to clear the cap to create space for one of the 35% guys then I don’t think we’d have much trouble moving Lance or Galloway to do it.

      We could have rented out that cap space to, say New Orleans for Tyreke Evans, who has 1 year ~$10MM left, perhaps extracting a future pick. We could then probably clear space to take Jodie Meeks from Detroit, extracting another future pick. Then go over the cap to sign Gallo and Thomas.

      Those guys are both expiring deals. There will likely be teams that would take them on a freebie flyer this summer, especially Meeks who is only on $6m/yr and could have value to a contender at the deadline as a perimeter shooter assuming he can bounce back from injuries. I’d be shocked if either NOP or DET would give up picks just to move those guys in what’s projected to be a loaded draft.

    6. Also Frank, we should see what contracts he gives out before anything. If he gives out more 1+1 type deals then we’ll likely have the space for 2 max slots regardless of any of this.

      The math is very tight though, like you pointed out.

    7. Interesting article from Chicago about Noah–

      http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/joakim-noah-and-the-bulls-no-longer-have-anything-in-common/

      Implies that Noah is not going to be chasing dollars, and that he wants a chance to win + start/close games.

      He’d definitely start in NY.
      Would probably not start in Washington since they have Gortat.

      Other teams that would need a center (in no particular order):
      Houston
      Dallas
      Atlanta
      Lakers
      Celtics
      Heat
      Hornets

      Out of those, I would imagine at least initially he would not be the first choice for the Lakers or the Heat, since they’re rumored to be going after Whiteside. And the Lakers are nowhere close to making the playoffs, so I think they’re out.

      He does not seem to be a Morey-type of player, but maybe I’m wrong.

      Really seems like the best fit would be the Knicks. Hopefully at a bargain price. Dolan could offer to help bankroll his foundation.

    8. If I were Phil I’d try to sign an SG this summer long-term and then use the rest of the space to give out 1-year rental deals to fill out the roster if possible. So that would take the Knicks out of the running for 2 max players, but you’d have 3/5 of a starting lineup in place and a little continuity, which we need.

    9. Frank, excellent analysis but there’s one bit of math that’s obvious. With a $94M cap and a max salary around $25M, teams can only land 3 max players and then fill their rosters. Remember that veteran’s minimums are around $1-1.5M so that’s $10 off the top even if you mix in a number of minimum salaries.

      What it means is Melo ($25M)+Rose ($22M) = $47M in total. Subtract Porzingis ($4.5), O’Quinn ($4M) and Holliday ($1M) and that leaves $37. Assume that the 11th-15th players will split $5M so that’s $32 for 5 players.

      How do we split that $32? I’m guessing the budget might be: $16, 8, 3, 3, 2. But $32 is a lot of money. A max player leaves the team nothing so I would rather see us getting 2 starters and some good bargains.

      BTW, Galloway might end up costing too much even with our rights, depending on who we get at center and SG.

    10. If I were Phil I’d try to sign an SG this summer long-term and then use the rest of the space to give out 1-year rental deals to fill out the roster if possible. So that would take the Knicks out of the running for 2 max players, but you’d have 3/5 of a starting lineup in place and a little continuity, which we need.

      Or really work hard to convince Noah to take a below market deal.
      Doubt Bazemore will take a below-market deal since he hasn’t made any real $ in the league yet.

      I hear what you’re saying about Lance — but Lance also hasn’t made any real $ yet, and this might be his last chance at a life-changing contract. the salary floor is so high (as is the respect for his intangibles if not his game), that I could imagine someone just throwing $8MM AAV at him. It’d be really hard for him to turn down 4/32 for 4/24 which is roughly what we could offer him through EB rights. Especially if it’s a team he has a level of comfort with already, like OKC, which has already been rumored to want to sign him.

    11. Really seems like the best fit would be the Knicks. Hopefully at a bargain price. Dolan could offer to help bankroll his foundation.

      It’s funny for as big of a scumbag Dolan is, I remember reading an article in which Mutombo stated that he loved Dolan because he made significant donations to his charity and continued to give free advertising for it at the Garden before and during games even after Mutombo was traded and treated like shit by Isiah.

      Long story short, is yeah maybe that helps us in some way if Dolan is willing to throw cash at Noah’s charity.

    12. What it means is Melo ($25M)+Rose ($22M) = $47M in total. Subtract Porzingis ($4.5), O’Quinn ($4M) and Holliday ($1M) and that leaves $37. Assume that the 11th-15th players will split $5M so that’s $32 for 5 players.

      How do we split that $32? I’m guessing the budget might be: $16, 8, 3, 3, 2. But $32 is a lot of money. A max player leaves the team nothing so I would rather see us getting 2 starters and some good bargains.

      BTW, Galloway might end up costing too much even with our rights, depending on who we get at center and SG.

      I can only tell you to trust me on the math, unless Excel is lying or I completely misunderstand the salary system.

      Re: Galloway he is restricted by Arenas so I doubt he gets significant offers that we could/would not match. I feel pretty confident he’s coming back at $5-6MM/year. Not sure how many years.

    13. It’d be really hard for him to turn down 4/32 for 4/24 which is roughly what we could offer him through EB rights. Especially if it’s a team he has a level of comfort with already, like OKC, which has already been rumored to want to sign him.

      Yeah, maybe. The one card the Knicks could play is offering him a 1+1 in that situation with a handshake agreement to make up the difference next summer when we’d have his Full Bird Rights.

    14. It’s funny for as big of a scumbag Dolan is, I remember reading an article in which Mutombo stated that he loved Dolan because he made significant donations to his charity and continued to give free advertising for it at the Garden before and during games even after Mutombo was traded and treated like shit by Isiah.

      Long story short, is yeah maybe that helps us in some way if Dolan is willing to throw cash at Noah’s charity.

      under the radar Dolan does a lot of charity work. I know for sure that Cablevision/Dolan basically pays all the administrative costs and also donates a ton of money to a pancreatic cancer foundation called the Lustgarten Foundation. he gets no press for it, and doesn’t seem to want it – if I remember correctly Lustgarten was some sort of executive at Cablevision and died of pancreatic cancer decades ago. Dolan has basically been bankrolling the operation since, allowing 100% of the proceeds to go to research.

    15. hehe Knicks signed Marshall Plumlee to the summer league team. MEAT’S BACK ON THE MENU, BOYS.

      Someone yesterday listed “Plumlee” as one of the C’s they wanted to pick up. Hope they meant this one!

    16. I don’t think Lance is going anywhere to be honest….He has one year of good shooting

      There’s an odd facet to Lance's 3FG%. He shot 40% on 109 attempts. What if I told you he only took 45 3FG attempts in his entire career before then (shooting about 32%)? Would you be surprised? It would be hard to conclude that last season was just a blip or aberration.

      If I were Phil – and this isn’t gonna happen – I’d put in a large poison pill offer for Tyler Johnson. If that fails, I’d play Lance/Gallo at the 2, KOQ at the 1 and just hand out large 1 year deals. I’d hope Melo and KP play really well and then maybe Westbrook might consider the Knicks next summer.

    17. “Remember that veteran’s minimums are around $1-1.5M so that’s $10 off the top even if you mix in a number of minimum salaries.”
      Quirk of the CBA is that, if you pay a veteran a $1 million league veteran minimum, he only counts the same as the rookie league minimum towards the cap. They did this so that teams aren’t biased against league minimum vets. (I think that the league, and not the team, actually pays the difference between the rookie minimum and vet minimum, but I’m not 100% sure about that.) However, if you pay a veteran $1 more than his vet minimum, his whole salary counts against the cap (like with Amundson and Thomas last year).

    18. “Someone yesterday listed “Plumlee” as one of the C’s they wanted to pick up. Hope they meant this one!”
      I remember an irate Mets fan once calling a sports talk show and screaming, “We got the wrong Matsui, we got the wrong Zambrano, I’ve had it with this team!” I think we got the wrong Plumlee.

    19. What if I told you he only took 45 3FG attempts in his entire career before then (shooting about 32%)?

      30 for 30: Lance A Make ‘Em Dance

    20. I think we got the wrong Plumlee.

      Don’t worry, another one will emerge from the cloning labs soon. They reproduce by budding, right?

    21. This whole Durant meeting tour is one giant circle jerk. There’s no way he leaves all that money on the table, I think we all know he’s gonna sign the 1+1 with OKC. This is just about having his ego stroked by mostly desperate teams, it’s something every superstar looks forward to in their career.

    22. OKC’s Oladipo trade is a really strange move IMHO.

      I get that they’re worried about Ibaka not re-signing.

      But you just took GS to 7 games, and really should have won that series. Honestly, you trade out Dion Waiters or Andre Roberson in games 6/7 for even Lance Thomas and you probably win that series. And you’re probably favored against Cleveland for the title.

      Ibaka was huge in that series, both next to Adams and as the small-ball 5.

      instead of just running it back and trying to fix the Roberson/Waiters situation, you change it completely? They got a pretty good haul, but they’re REALLY banking on Adams making the real jump next year. And then they have both Adams and Oladipo as restricted free agents next year — the same year that KD and Russ are probably both looking for their supermaxes.

    23. IMO, we gave away about 10 wins and we got back a question mark that is more likely to deliver between 0-5 wins than a comparable or greater number of wins. We are worse now than before the trade with the same cap space and will need to make some good moves just to get back to where we were.

      I don’t want to speculate too much on who we should have signed (because I don’t know who would have been willing to sign and for how much). I would have tried to add some combination of a starting SG, PG , and increased bench depth to contracts that were fair and could be moved later as opportunities changed. As long as you don’t add bad contracts, they can always be moved. That would have added a few wins to go along with any development we got from KP and Grant and probably made us a playoff team. Going forward Lopez’s contract would look great and KP might be ready to play C. So next year I’d try to combine the assets we brought in this year, the 2017 cap space, and possibly even a pick to add a legit young star or two to a core of KP.

      It’s not hard to undo the Rose trade, but it will be harder to add assets like Lopez and Grant for the same price.

    24. @23

      IMO, Ibaka is not the same player he used to be. I’m not sure if it’s injuries or that he’s not actually as young as officially reported (that’s a rumor), but I don’t think analysts have quite grasped that he has declined. So they probably made a great move to get rid of him while his value is still very high.

    25. If KD wants to join GSW, Warriors would have to dump Bogut’s 14m salary (1 year left). That would be perfect for us if we gave them a couple of 2nd round picks. We could monitor KP’s development and ability to play the 5 at the end of season. Would some other team offer more for Bogut for a 1 year rental? They’d have to give draft picks for Bogut because GSW isn’t taking on salary. Gotta figure GSW would want to send him to EC so that might give us an edge against some of WC teams who might have an interest.

    26. I’d give them a top-55 protected 2nd rounder at most. If they want to move Bogut in that scenario it won’t be a sellers market as everybody will know why they’re doing it. It’d probably be more up to Bogut letting them know what situation out of the interested parties for his servives he’d like the most and GSW moving him there for a token asset.

      I think that’s what ultimately happened with Splitter last summer.

    27. Here is my plan. A first step anyway. Let’s not sign players who we can be safely expected to spend 30-40% of their contract injured.

    28. we are probably not adding both bazemore and noah/gasol…. i highly doubt that both will fit given their prospective market values…. more importantly they’ll eat into whatever room we have…

      i do want galloway back but not thomas… having about half a season of ok production out of his entire career ….and coming off an injury no less…. is a lot of risk to take on what is presumably a long term deal…. there are better options out there…

    29. One thing we could do is try and get by without getting an expensive wing. We now have Justin Holiday who probably can be at least a rotation wing, say 15 min/game.

      Could play Galloway 10 min/game at the 2 and 15 min/game at the 1.

      Then sign under the radar guys like Brandon Rush (a guy with multiple knee injuries, took 2+ years to recover, then played really well for GS last year on both sides of the floor) and/or Gerald Henderson, whose stats don’t jump out at you but he’s probably adequate on offense and has a good defensive rep.

      Say you could get one of them for MLE-type money, then try for DJ Augustin around $8MM maybe.

    30. Here is my plan. A first step anyway. Let’s not sign players who we can be safely expected to spend 30-40% of their contract injured.

      Um, actually, you’re not their surgeon so you can’t tell us whether they’re still recovering or whether they’ll successfully return to top athletic form.

      /s

    31. Um, actually, you’re not their surgeon so you can’t tell us whether they’re still recovering or whether they’ll successfully return to top athletic form.

      I feel like you’re trolling me but actually I believe you’re trolling yourself.

      Basically you’re saying who needs team doctors and surgeons because I can look at WP48.

    32. I’d give them a top-55 protected 2nd rounder at most. If they want to move Bogut in that scenario it won’t be a sellers market as everybody will know why they’re doing it. It’d probably be more up to Bogut letting them know what situation out of the interested parties for his servives he’d like the most and GSW moving him there for a token asset. I think that’s what ultimately happened with Splitter last summer.

      Dunno Lavor. I kinda think GSW would send Bogut to the highest bidder in this instance. The reason is that if they sign KD, their bench will be very thin (Looney/rook/room exception/vets). If they could acquire some picks for the players they dump, those could be included in a possible trade into their cap next summer so they wouldn’t have to rely exclusively on signing free agent(s). Of course, Kerr might do Phil a favor by gifting him Bogut to make up for jilting Jax.

    33. Basically you’re saying who needs team doctors and surgeons because I can look at WP48.

      I’m not trolling you. I’m mocking you for this opinion: that you need to be a team doctor or surgeon to look at a guy with three major knee injuries and call him an serious injury risk.

    34. I’m not trolling you. I’m mocking you for this opinion: that you need to be a team doctor or surgeon to look at a guy with three major knee injuries and call him an serious injury risk.

      He is a serious injury risk. Never said he wasn’t.

      What I did say is that you need to rely on the surgeons to tell you what his athletic ceiling is going forward. What his chance for reinjury is. Every ACL tear is different. Every ACL repair is different. He’s now 4 years out from his ACL repair, and so presumably the ACL is fine in terms of reinjury risk — but is his lack of explosiveness due to a suboptimal repair? Normal healing that has been thrown off by his meniscus injuries?

      He had a meniscus injury which was repaired in 2013-14 and then reinjured (and resected) the next year. What does the surgeon who fixed the meniscus think? What did his knee look like under the scope? Was there a ton of chronic change? How tight was the repair? How much meniscus was left in? What’s his strength in the supporting muscles and ligaments? If it’s weak, is it something that will respond to proper treatment/rehab?

      Amazingly, boxscoregeeks.com doesn’t have the arthroscopy pictures as part of WP48. Or anything else you need to make an informed medical opinion.

    35. With Rose’ injury history, I would rather have DJ Augustin than Galloway, if his deal is affordable. If I can have Augustin plus Holiday vs. galloway and thomas for the same total $$, I would prefer that.

      not sure thomas would equate loyalty and last years’ success into a discount to stay. We should start spelling his name “Lancee Thomase” ….maybe he will get the point. see what I did there?

    36. A couple of notes to questions above:

      1. The 2017-18 rookie salary scale is here. It ranges from $5 million for the first pick to $1 million for the 30th pick. That is also the cap hold for that pick.

      2. The salary cap used for a veteran who gets the league minimum is the 2nd year minimum, not rookie as stated above. The reason for this lower salary cap hit is so that long-time vets do not get priced out of the league for salary cap reasons.

      3. Of the teams that might be interested in Noah, I think that Boston is the best fit. Great coach, close to winning (48 wins last year) and needs to add veteran leadership. If he has anything left in the tank, that is where I see him going. If he is on “E”, I guess he will be a Knick.

    37. Dunno Lavor. I kinda think GSW would send Bogut to the highest bidder in this instance. The reason is that if they sign KD, their bench will be very thin (Looney/rook/room exception/vets). If they could acquire some picks for the players they dump, those could be included in a possible trade into their cap next summer so they wouldn’t have to rely exclusively on signing free agent(s). Of course, Kerr might do Phil a favor by gifting him Bogut to make up for jilting Jax.

      That’s true, I just don’t think the market for Bogut is going to very rich. Maybe they get a pair of 2nd rounders for him at most, but at that point they’d probably just want to get all the maneuvering done and lock in Durant before he has time to re-think his decision.

      Also think it’d be a way to curry some favor with player agents if you let Bogut decide where he’d go in his contract year versus sending him to the highest bidder, but you could be right too. Could see either scenario playing out.

    38. Amazingly, boxscoregeeks.com doesn’t have the arthroscopy pictures as part of WP48. Or anything else you need to make an informed medical opinion.

      Do you think his progress might be captured by the 2000 minutes he played last year? Just a little bit?

    39. Rose played 2000 minutes? Shoot, I thought he had both legs amputated…

      Check again, was it the wheelchair league?

    40. Do you think his progress might be captured by the 2000 minutes he played last year? Just a little bit?

      Hmmm.

      pre-ASB –> TS 46.5, USG 26, FG% 40.8, 3P% 25.5.

      post-ASB –> TS 52.1, USG 27.5, FG% 46.8, 3P% 37.5.

      You’re right. It DOES show progress!

    41. Wow! Sick endpoints! Damn! His knees must be great if he could sustain a 37.5 3PT% over the course of a meaningful sample. With reasonable expectations of improvement, let’s project a 42 3PT% this year!

    42. Rose’s supposed big improvement after the ASB came almost entirely from the first seven games after the break. He was on fire in those seven games, putting up a .626 TS%.

      Then in the last 13 games, Rose went straight back to sucking, with a .466 TS% over those last 13 games.

      Post All-Star break he also sat out 9 out of 29 total games. Because Derrick Rose.

      Yeah, looks like he closed out the season super strong and healthy!

    43. It’s actually kind of disheartening that even if you arbitrarily only look at Rose’s “good” stretch, he was still pretty much a high usage, low efficiency chucker who is probably the worst kind of player to pair with Carmelo Anthony.

    44. Wouldn’t we be able to absorb Bogut and send an non guaranteed contract back they could immediately waive? That is the point of cap space right? They should send us a future first rounder for doing them the favor to sign Durant if that happens.

    45. Yeah Frank, why would you do something like divide the year chronologically? Clearly it’s a fluke that he played better as the year went on, since his knees must have been killing him by then. The guy is shot, I’m telling you.

    46. Yeah Frank, why would you do something like divide the year chronologically? Clearly it’s a fluke that he played better as the year went on, since his knees must have been killing him by then. The guy is shot, I’m telling you.

      Read #49. He didn’t play better as the year went on. He played well for seven games and then closed out the year playing like dog shit for the last 13 games. All the while missing 1/3 of the games during this time frame.

    47. Rose’s supposed big improvement after the ASB came almost entirely from the first seven games after the break. He was on fire in those seven games, putting up a .626 TS%.

      Then in the last 13 games, Rose went straight back to sucking, with a .466 TS% over those last 13 games.

      Post All-Star break he also sat out 9 out of 29 total games. Because Derrick Rose.

      Yeah, looks like he closed out the season super strong and healthy!

      Wow nice constructed narrative you’ve got going on

      are you a surgeon though

    48. I guess the Chicago Bulls either don’t have “surgeons” or their “surgeons” just aren’t very good and their surgeon machines can’t see the RUFF RYDAH that is inside of Derrick Rose

    49. Yeah Frank, why would you do something like divide the year chronologically? Clearly it’s a fluke that he played better as the year went on, since his knees must have been killing him by then. The guy is shot, I’m telling you.

      As JK47 pointed out, move your arbitrary endpoints by 6 games and you can argue he was at his worst to close out the year. It’s almost as if making personnel decisions based on random swaths of play, as opposed to the entire body of work over the last four seasons, is a shitty idea.

    50. Dudes.

      I was against the trade.

      I don’t think it was a good idea.

      Just saying that it is too early to say he definitely will break down or that he will suck as badly as he did (on the whole) in 14-15 and 15-16. And that it’s not totally ridiculous to think he can return somewhat to form.

      and btw – if we’re doing multi-level cherrypicking, then maybe we should take out the first 2 months of season when he was recovering FROM A BROKEN FACE, playing with double vision after a surgery that usually keeps players out 2-3 months if they play contact sports.

      (I wish I could tell you the result of the super-cherrypicking, but the NBA site won’t do specific dates and nbawowy is on the fritz as usual)

    51. Then go on the record and define a break even point for the trade. Then we can come back and chat at a later date. Unless your position is it doesn’t matter how Rose or the team plays…

    52. Let’s also not forget he missed all of training camp because of the eye injury.
      Would that be important to attend with a completely new coach and system?

      Again – I’m not saying Derrick Rose played well last year or that he’s an iron man. I’m NOT SAYING THAT.

      I’m saying that it’s PLAUSIBLE that there is some upside here.

      That anyone who thinks there’s something to hope for here is not saying the world is flat or that there’s no such thing as climate change.

      That anyone who’s SO SURE that there’s nothing to hope for is operating on incomplete information. You might just be wrong. You might not be. I don’t know. But neither do you.

    53. You don’t have to cherry-pick to find evidence that Derrick Rose stinks. You DO have to cherry-pick to find evidence that he doesn’t stink.

    54. Actually you do, JK. You have to completely ignore his pre-injury play and assume he will not play that way ever again, or anywhere close to it.

    55. That anyone who’s SO SURE that there’s nothing to hope for is operating on incomplete information. You might just be wrong. You might not be. I don’t know. But neither do you.

      If there’s a 90% chance that he is

      (a) the worst shooting PG in the league
      (b) injured for half the season
      (c) disgruntled about losing as many games as the Knicks will lose next year (this is a 27-55 team at best without any significant FA additions)
      (d) all of the above

      would that qualify as “nothing to hope for?” Or do we need a 100% certainty to be cynical about this terrible trade this front office made?

    56. Actually you do, JK. You have to completely ignore his pre-injury play and assume he will not play that way ever again, or anywhere close to it.

      Four and a half seasons of injuries and terrible play now constitute a “cherry pick.”

      Is there a word for optimism in the face of almost certain doom? There has to be some German word for that or something.

    57. By this logic, any trade whatsoever regardless of what is given up and acquired has theoretical upside because there’s always a chance the player(s) acquired play at a level all empirical evidence says is highly unlikely. Even if that does happen, it’s total hindsight and the argument that the trade was terrible at the time is by no means invalidated. In the far more likely event that the bad player continues to be bad, the fact that he theoretically could have been good can’t even begin to serve as a defense.

    58. Does time spent not playing count as terrible play? How many games did he play during that 4+ years at his current level of health?

    59. I can’t even tell if the horse still exists it’s been beat so much. You guys are ridiculous with this shit about him. It’s a bad trade, oh well. He’ll play good or play bad and we’ll see if he gets resigned after this year. That’s the story.

    60. I guess the Chicago Bulls either don’t have “surgeons” or their “surgeons” just aren’t very good

      They aren’t. They have fucked up multiple players’ recoveries from injuries and put Deng’s life in serious danger at one point.

      The accumulation of shitty recovery from injury and recurrence of those issues is why they fired their entire medical staff this summer.

    61. Off-topic, but is anyone else a little worried about the optics of trading Lopez around the league?

      I could be totally off base here, but I don’t want free agents, or any players/agents really, thinking that if you sign a fair market value contract with the Knicks and by all means play at least up to its standards, you still might get traded the second a pseudo star with a pending sexual assault case becomes available.

    62. Four and a half seasons of injuries and terrible play now constitute a “cherry pick.”

      Is there a word for optimism in the face of almost certain doom? There has to be some German word for that or something.

      I think the German word you’re looking for is übertreiben, or exaggerate.

      Injured in 2011-12
      Didn’t play in 2012-13
      Reinjured meniscus in 2013-14
      Played in 2014-15
      Played in 2015-16

      So TWO years of terrible play, which theoretically could be at least partially explained by normal recovery from injury.

      And yes, THCJ did just completely make up the 90% number.
      I think it’s 60% chance he’s really bad and 20% chance he’s just ok, and 20% chance that he’s really good. Can you prove me wrong?

    63. I can’t even tell if the horse still exists it’s been beat so much. You guys are ridiculous with this shit about him. It’s a bad trade, oh well. He’ll play good or play bad and we’ll see if he gets resigned after this year. That’s the story.

      lol +1000

    64. Off-topic, but is anyone else a little worried about the optics of trading Lopez around the league?

      I’m more worried about the karma of separating identical twins. Robin signed here to be near Brook. It didn’t work out too well for the last NBA team which separated identical twins. I was on the NYC subway the other day and there were two 70yr old identical twin guys sitting next to one another and wearing weird identical outfits. A 2osomething women was sitting right across from them and tried hard to suppress it but she ended up laughing hysterically.

    65. Not when the argument is based on a judgment call. You have no idea whatsoever about the actual odds of Rose’s recovery towards pre-injury status. This isn’t “I signed MJ to a max deal in his prime but he got hit by a meteorite and in hindsight it was a dumb idea.” If a GM evaluates a situation and moves based on his risk assessment, and things work out as he anticipated, he deserves credit for being right in hindsight. If Rose sux/crumbles or Jerian goes on to be a HOFer, he deserves blame. See: living, breathing, complex organisms.

    66. Off-topic, but is anyone else a little worried about the optics of trading Lopez around the league?

      I could be totally off base here, but I don’t want free agents, or any players/agents really, thinking that if you sign a fair market value contract with the Knicks and by all means play at least up to its standards, you still might get traded the second a pseudo star with a pending sexual assault case becomes available.

      I would bet money most players in the league view this as a steal for the Knicks that they couldn’t pass up because shit, it’s former MVP Derrick Rose.

    67. Serious questions (you don’t have to be a surgeon to reply):

      (1) When does the post-trade physical have to be completed by?
      (2) Is it possible to fail a guy based on flimsy findings or does the league have to approve the failing?

    68. I would bet money most players in the league view this as a steal for the Knicks that they couldn’t pass up because shit, it’s former MVP Derrick Rose.

      Agree 100% that players in the league may view Rose this way. This is why Derrick Rose’s capabilities are (hopefully because he is a 1 year rental baring a miracle) irrelevant. Either he helps us attract better FA’s than we otherwise would have in which case the trade in hindsight will be ok, or he doesn’t in which case the trade in hindsight was not good (since we could have got more than Ju.Holiday + 2nd rounder) for Lopez+Grant.

    69. I’m more worried about the karma of separating identical twins. Robin signed here to be near Brook. It didn’t work out too well for the last NBA team which separated identical twins. I was on the NYC subway the other day and there were two 70yr old identical twin guys sitting next to one another and wearing weird identical outfits. A 2osomething women was sitting right across from them and tried hard to suppress it but she ended up laughing hysterically.

      On the Zach Lowe podcast he talked about how they share an apartment and their cats get in fights. These dudes are cat people. They seem mildly weird and ambiverted, like the kind of dudes who get in after a long flight and read comic books and watch Season 8 of The Simpsons until getting up in the morning to play basketball in front of 10,000 people.

      Contrast this to the Morris twins, who can’t bear to be separated because it’s much easier to beat the shit out of a normal-sized person when there’s two of you.

    70. I think the German word you’re looking for is übertreiben, or exaggerate.

      Injured in 2011-12
      Didn’t play in 2012-13
      Reinjured meniscus in 2013-14
      Played in 2014-15
      Played in 2015-16

      So TWO years of terrible play, which theoretically could be at least partially explained by normal recovery from injury.

      And yes, THCJ did just completely make up the 90% number.
      I think it’s 60% chance he’s really bad and 20% chance he’s just ok, and 20% chance that he’s really good. Can you prove me wrong?

      I said that if you had a 10% chance of success here, would you consider that hope-worthy? That sounds like the kind of gamble that I pass on each and every time. Maybe our risk thresholds are different. Well, 100% chance of that, since you think Derrick Rose could be a good player this year. (Spoiler: he won’t be.)

    71. On the Zach Lowe podcast he talked about how they share an apartment and their cats get in fights. These dudes are cat people. They seem mildly weird and ambiverted, like the kind of dudes who get in after a long flight and read comic books and watch Season 8 of The Simpsons until getting up in the morning to play basketball in front of 10,000 people.

      Contrast this to the Morris twins, who can’t bear to be separated because it’s much easier to beat the shit out of a normal-sized person when there’s two of you.

      Interesting but do you have an advanced degree in psychology or are you now or have you ever been a practicing psychiatrist? Have you ever conducted peer-reviewed studies of identical twins?

    72. Oh, Silky, were you here for the Ted Nelson debacle? He’s still waiting for me to publish.

    73. I remember hearing Tom Van Arsdale on the radio talking about his depression over his twin, Tom, playing for the Knicks while he played for Detroit. He said he cried every day and quit basketball weekly to become a lawyer, only to keep getting sucked back into the game. It’s pretty powerful, and non-twins may not be able to fully relate. If Robin did want to be in NY to live with Brook, I hope he handles the trade okay. (Or Maybe Brook can get himself traded to Milwaukee?)

    74. Maybe we should stop debating this trade and put our money where our mouths are. IMO, the public and pundits are going to wildly overrate the Knicks this year because they like scorers like Rose and don’t adequately appreciate guys like Lopez. If you ask me, even Calderon’s contribution is being underrated. Pending what we do next in free agency and what the win total for the season actually is , I’m probably going to make the biggest basketball bet of my life on the “under” for the Knicks. I bet the over last year.

    75. I’m Alecto–just changed my name to something more appropriate for these dark nights of the basketball soul

    76. FWIW – based on this whole ridiculous conversation I reached out to David Chao (@profootballdoc) about DRose’s chances to return to his previous level of athleticism — I know (of) him through a mutual acquaintance. And he said Rose should be able to return to that level.

      Didn’t get into detail of course since it happened on twitter – but basically the question was “from what you know of case, can [DRose] return to previous athleticism” and he wrote back that he should be able to return.

      For those of you who aren’t football fans, he writes for the National Football Post now, used to be the Chargers team doc / orthopedic surgeon for many years. He’s branched out a bit and does commentary on other sports injuries/surgeries too.

    77. I remember hearing Tom Van Arsdale on the radio talking about his depression over his twin, Tom, playing for the Knicks while he played for Detroit.

      Both twins were named Tom?

    78. Didn’t get into detail of course since it happened on twitter – but basically the question was “from what you know of case, can [DRose] return to previous athleticism” and he wrote back that he should be able to return.

      k

    79. Injured in 2011-12
      Didn’t play in 2012-13
      Reinjured meniscus in 2013-14
      Played in 2014-15
      Played in 2015-16

      This is incorrect. You left out one of his three knee surgeries. And he did not “re-injure” his meniscus in 2013-2014, that was a brand new injury on the other knee. He did re-injure the meniscus the following season and had surgery on it again, although this one was of the minor Jeremy Lin-style meniscus tear, and Rose missed “only” 31 games that year.

      2011-2012 Tore left ACL, had season-ending surgery
      2012-2013 Missed entire season
      2013-2014 Injured RIGHT meniscus, had season-ending surgery
      2014-2015 Re-injured RIGHT meniscus, had surgery, returned for end of season
      2015-2016 Stunk

      Rose also missed significant time with injuries in the 2011-2012 season BEFORE his torn ACL. He tore the ACL in the playoffs but he had missed 27 regular season games with a variety of injuries– sprained toe, back spasms, groin strain. The guy is not exactly Mr. Durability.

      Number of total games played each year for Rose:
      2011-2012: 39/66
      2012-2013: 0/82
      2013-2014: 10/82
      2014-2015: 51/82
      2015-2016: 66/82

      That’s 166 out of 394 games that Derrick Rose has suited up for over the last five seasons. Expecting Derrick Rose to be healthy and productive is a long shot any way you slice it.

    80. Number of total games played each year for Rose:
      2011-2012: 39/66
      2012-2013: 0/82
      2013-2014: 10/82
      2014-2015: 51/82
      2015-2016: 66/82

      That’s 166 out of 394 games that Derrick Rose has suited up for over the last five seasons. Expecting Derrick Rose to be healthy and productive is a long shot any way you slice it.

      Sorry, but we aren’t interested in likelihoods here. We’re in this for hopefulness. Can we hope? Is this sufficiently hopeful?

    81. Both twins were named Tom?

      Haha. Kind of like how both Morris twins are named Mark? (Obviously, Tom’s brother was our own Dick Van Arsdale, my bad w/ the typo :)

    82. Expecting Derrick Rose to be healthy and productive is a long shot any way you slice it.

      And yet we have an actual orthopedic surgeon who has taken care of professional athletes saying that yes, he should be able to return to form.

      Is he a risk? Yes, if for no other reason than that guys who are injury prone are probably injury prone. Is he going to keep getting injured, or will he be like Grant Hill, or Steph Curry, or Ilgauskas, or even Brook Lopez – guys who got injured a bunch early in their careers, then stayed healthy?

      basically I think we agree – I just am not as hopeless about it as you. Like you, even if he plays really well this year, like MVP DRose, I’m not giving him a max contract because of that injury risk. 2 years, maybe 3 at most, with injury guarantees, at some sort of submax rate.

    83. Sorry, but we aren’t interested in likelihoods here. We’re in this for hopefulness. Can we hope? Is this sufficiently hopeful?

      So why do you watch any team other than the Warriors/Cavs/Spurs then?

      I watch because I hope the Knicks are good, that they overperform expectations.
      Do you watch just so that you’re proven right?

    84. Like you, even if he plays really well this year, like MVP DRose, I’m not giving him a max contract because of that injury risk. 2 years, maybe 3 at most, with injury guarantees, at some sort of submax rate.

      If he plays like MVP Rose, which, again, was not MVP-worthy, he will absolutely receive a supermax contract and the Knicks will absolutely be the first to offer it to him.

      Should we be hopeful on that, too?

    85. If he plays like MVP Rose, which, again, was not MVP-worthy, he will absolutely receive a supermax contract and the Knicks will absolutely be the first to offer it to him.


      Only a Sith deals in absolutes

    86. Should we be hopeful on that, too?

      Hey a recent WSJ study found that 48.8% of NBA players are related to an elite athlete. I will hold out hope that DRose is related to John Stockton.

    87. So why do you watch any team other than the Warriors/Cavs/Spurs then?

      I watch because I hope the Knicks are good, that they overperform expectations.
      Do you watch just so that you’re proven right?

      I was born and raised in NY and I’ve been a Knicks fan since my first game at the Garden, which was Isaiah Rider’s T-Wolves playing Ewing’s Knicks. Sadly, my grade-school friend bought a Ewing jersey and had a fit when I wanted one too, so I ended up with a Starks jersey, which I hope is buried deep in some landfill at this point.

      Do you remember my posts when I said the Knicks would win 54 games in 2012-13? Do you remember how I looked objectively at the pieces the Knicks had and I made a prediction based on my awful WP evidence? Do you remember how I loved David Lee and rookie-year Landry Fields and Tyson Chandler for being good at basketball?

      I’m not a blind optimist. That is what you are, despite some Twitter conversation about how this one guy could “return to form” five years after his good-but-not-great peak. There’s room for blind optimism in fandom, but after fifteen years of consistently being a franchise that trades away future lottery picks because of optimism, I think I’m about done with that childish nonsense.

      I have used the Bargnani trade as a bellwether for fan stupidity. He was clearly the worst player in the league before the trade and some people said things like, “Yeah, but it’ll be a low-20s pick, so why do we care that much?” Caveat after caveat from supporters.

      Now we have the Derrick Rose trade, which brings up the same bullshit caveats and hypotheticals from the same people. I’m sorry I’m not among them, and I’m especially sorry that I will almost certainly be correct in my evaluation.

    88. If not Rose, what were the other short-term PG possibilities? Hoping for Rose to recapture some heightened level of past ability is no less realistic than hoping for Grant/Galloway/Calderon to man the point for a semi-competent NBA team.

      Handing the keys to Grant–a second-year player who has proven nothing in the NBA–is the epitome of wishful thinking.

    89. I reached out to Dr Dre, who I had previously forgot about. His medical opinion is that we should not want a dude who allowed his face to be broken to pilot our team.

      I also forgot about Cleanthony. just flat out forgot.

    90. Other than reub trolling us I don’t think anybody thinks it’s a good trade. That said there’s no reason to not hope he plays wells. Why even play the games if we can just run a simulation based off of advanced stats?

    91. If the Knicks sign Joakim Noah this is going to be one hilariously bad offense. Phil will have built an entire lineup of guys with sub-.475 eFG’s. Add Evan Turner to that lineup and you could have something truly “special.”

    92. Do you remember my posts when I said the Knicks would win 54 games in 2012-13? Do you remember how I looked objectively at the pieces the Knicks had and I made a prediction based on my awful WP evidence?

      If I remember correctly, the Knicks DID win 54 games but not because of the reasons WP48 thought — it thought that Camby and Ronnie Brewer would be huge parts of the success, and they were not. Chandler yes. Jason Kidd yes. But any model could have told you that.

      Obviously I was horribly wrong on the Bargnani trade. I freely admit that. It’s fine and I’m sorry.

      Do you remember how I loved David Lee and rookie-year Landry Fields and Tyson Chandler for being good at basketball?

      David Lee has been shown – using your kind of descriptive words – to be “not very good at basketball”, because he can’t stay on the court on the defensive end at all. (No offense David! I still appreciated your time here!)

      And Landry Fields? Really?

    93. Now we have the Derrick Rose trade, which brings up the same bullshit caveats and hypotheticals from the same people.

      lol I remember a conversation we had way back when about Nick Fazekas and how he sucks despite his WP48. And you said he would be great if he could find a coach that would actually play him minutes, as though it was their fault Nick couldn’t be great.

      Anyway, the reason the Derrick Rose trade is different from Bargnani and other hilariously bad Knick trades is because we didn’t take on any long-term contracts and we didn’t send any draft picks – in fact we gained what might be a reasonably valuable 2nd rounder. It’s just not the same animal as Marbury/Curry/Bargnani etc. trades.

    94. If the Knicks sign Joakim Noah this is going to be one hilariously bad offense. Phil will have built an entire lineup of guys with sub-.475 eFG’s. Add Evan Turner to that lineup and you could have something truly “special.”

      Noah’s value is on the defensive end mostly, but yeah — we need find some of them shot “makers”.

      All this talking and arguing and the truth is, any Knicks contendorship will come down to whether 1 or both of 2 things happens — 1) KP takes a big leap and becomes Dirk+Defense; 2) we sign one of the premiere free agents. Everything else, even the immortal Robin Lopez and Jerian Grant, is probably all just deck chair rearrangement.

    95. So, I was an optimist on the Bargnani trade – and I was really wrong. I thought that he was a stretch 5 who could stay on the floor defensively. I also thought that he would give a damn. As I wrote two sentences ago, I WAS WRONG.

      I am not an optimist on the Derrick Rose trade. “Derrick Rose, when healthy” is a really strong dribble-drive offensive player who brings something to the defensive end because he is large for a guard. “Derrick Rose, when healthy” is still a horrible outside shooter and a big “hero ball” fan. “Derrick Rose, when healthy” is a horrible fit for any Triangle or Triangle-influenced offense.

      AND

      “Derrick Rose, when healthy” has not existed since 2011. I see no reason to believe that he will return to form five years (and three surgeries) after his first injury.

      This trade is unlikely to be as awful as the Bargnani trade, only because Bargnani was here for multiple years and cost the Knicks the shards of a first round pick (which ended up being a low lottery pick). It still is highly likely to be a bad trade.
      “Derrick Rose, if he is h

    96. It’s true that Rose sucked at the end of the year, partially because Justin Holiday was lighting it up for almost 10 pts a game @ about 45% from 3 and 80+% from the line. The last game of the year, he scored 29, going 6-8 from 3, with 5 assists. Meanwhile, in their last game of the year, the splash bro’s combined for 31 pts and 4 assists on 6-24 for 3.

      The question we should be asking is…..how do we get Jru Holiday!!

    97. If I remember correctly, the Knicks DID win 54 games but not because of the reasons WP48 thought — it thought that Camby and Ronnie Brewer would be huge parts of the success, and they were not. Chandler yes. Jason Kidd yes. But any model could have told you that.

      Holy fucking shit, ruruland. Are we talking about my supposed lack of optimism or are we talking about whether WP predicted the 54-win season with precision?

      My entire point is that when the Knicks look like they will be good, I will say they will be good. When they are going to be bad, like this upcoming season, I will say they will be bad.

    98. I am not an optimist on the Derrick Rose trade. “Derrick Rose, when healthy” is a really strong dribble-drive offensive player who brings something to the defensive end because he is large for a guard. “Derrick Rose, when healthy” is still a horrible outside shooter and a big “hero ball” fan. “Derrick Rose, when healthy” is a horrible fit for any Triangle or Triangle-influenced offense.

      AND

      “Derrick Rose, when healthy” has not existed since 2011. I see no reason to believe that he will return to form five years (and three surgeries) after his first injury.

      This trade is unlikely to be as awful as the Bargnani trade, only because Bargnani was here for multiple years and cost the Knicks the shards of a first round pick (which ended up being a low lottery pick). It still is highly likely to be a bad trade.

      Why is this post not copypasta for the rest of you? I mean, how much more reasonable can it get than this?

    99. Someone asked earlier about a break even point for the trade, so I’ll bite.

      I don’t like the trade. I’ve already rated it a D. Ad nauseum.

      However, in the unlikely event that Rose stays relatively healthy (oh, let’s say, only single digit in missed games) and the Knicks make the playoffs, perhaps that’ll be break even for me. That will probably keep Dolan off Phil’s back, give Phil at least another year so that he can use his 2017 cap space, and give a perception to those free agents that the Knicks are “on the rise.”

      A couple of smart free agents signings in the next couple of weeks could take the sting off this trade for me. My “please do not sign” hopes have shifted from Rondo to Noah (unless he signs for LESS than Lopez money on a short deal).

    100. I’m not trolling anybody. Some of you just can’t stomach rooting for the team that you profess (pretend) to love.

    101. Other than reub trolling us I don’t think anybody thinks it’s a good trade

      Raises hand. I do.

    102. Like Brian wrote in the prev thread, the Rose trade was move 1 out of probably 4-5 this offseason. We don’t know yet what the plan is going to be. But this morning I’m more pessimistic than I was before, mostly because I hadn’t had time to sit down to do the math. I spent a little time with Excel this morning to try and project the next couple years, and it’s not that great.

      Your math is basically correct. I told you that before, didn’t I? That if they re-sign Thomas and Galloway to multi-year deals over the cap, they likely won’t have max cap room in 2017. And yes, that’s not a good thing.

    103. Other than reub trolling us I don’t think anybody thinks it’s a good trade

      Raises hand. I do.

      @117 Please stop. You’re ruining their narrative!

    104. We’re going to start by kicking ass in Orlando on Friday so get ready to start complaining and making excuses.

    105. Jowles, you hated John Starks?? I know many fans will never forgive him for Game 7 of the NBA Finals but he was a pretty good player for the Knicks throughout his career. I loved Allan Houston and Spree although I’m fully aware of their limitations plus the fact that they were basically average players for the most part. I can’t imagine WP would’ve rated them too kindly although I would think it would like Starks a bit since he did fill up the box score a bit more than Houston and Spree (who was a very inefficient scorer but damn it he was really fun to watch).

    106. I admire guys like Frank for fighting the good fight. This place is so negative sometimes that it’s stifling, regardless of the excuses given. Even reub is more like a bit of a counterbalance to some of the extremely harsh negative posts.

      However, I can’t get the bad taste out of my mouth about this disappointing trade. I just don’t like Rose as a player or person. I definitely hope he has a great year and leads the Knicks to the playoffs, though…

      BTW, not an exciting D-League roster like last year, but always worth a watch. First game is Saturday. Who will be this year’s Ndour??
      :-)

    107. Jowles, you hated John Starks?? I know many fans will never forgive him for Game 7 of the NBA Finals but he was a pretty good player for the Knicks throughout his career. I loved Allan Houston and Spree although I’m fully aware of their limitations plus the fact that they were basically average players for the most part. I can’t imagine WP would’ve rated them too kindly although I would think it would like Starks a bit since he did fill up the box score a bit more than Houston and Spree (who was a very inefficient scorer but damn it he was really fun to watch).

      Advanced stats definitely liked Starks a lot more than Houston and Spree. Oakley is the guy who has the most improvement from people’s perception of him at the time to what advanced stats say about those years now. We all loved Oakley, but he was seen as a sort of glue guy, while advanced stats showed just how dominant he was in those years. Him, Ewing and Mase were advanced stat darlings.

    108. Clashfan, you’re right in that no KP or Jerian this summer. But Kuzmic, Baker, Harris, Diabate, Plumlee, Avilla, Labeyrie, and Tokoto all intrigue me. Is Hornacek coaching?

    109. Adam Zagoria ?@AdamZagoria Manhattan, NY
      ‘Obviously they have a good team now with D-Rose and Melo and Porzingis so I will talk to my team and we will figure things out. ‘ Durant

    110. You guys are totally missing the point of this trade, which was to bring to Gotham and build around Justin Holiday. I am taking it upon myself to become his historian and educate y’all. I gathered this info from the web, wikipedia, my anticipated answers to my calls which he has not returned, and some shit that I flat out made up. Here it is:

      -Justin Holiday is 27 yrs old, from Mission Hills Ca. He looks like he’s 15.
      -He goes by the nickname J-Ho, which I gave to him just now
      -J-Ho has a ring. Nobody on our roster has a ring. None of you have a ring.
      -J-Ho’s middle name is Alaric. None of you have the middle name Alaric
      -J-Hizzle played 4 years at Wash, and I believe has a college degree
      -J-Ho was a co-captain w/ Isaiah Thomas and Pac-10 defensive player of the year. These are the first 2 meaningful facts of my list, for those of you still reading.
      -he played in Belgium for a year with our old friend, Chris Copeland, who made him carry a dora backpack on road trips
      -he also has a brother, Aaron, who plays for UCLA. We know a dude who played for UCLA named Arron.
      -he also has a sister, Lauren, who plays for the UCLA womens’ team.
      -I will leave most of his D-league info out, because the D-league is bullshit, but one night he looked Jimmr right in the eye and called him a bitch.
      -J-Ho has no opinion on Brexit, but feels like Scotland should get the fuck out of there
      -From Washington’s press guide….teammates nicknamed him “the fireman” for his ability to put out fires on the court via rebounding and D. But, as stated above, chrisk06811 has nicknamed him J-Ho.
      -Bulls press describes him as an ‘energy guy’ who took Tony Snell’s job and worked his ass off

    111. Hello. Longtime reader, first time poster. Is there any chance Nike is pushing KD to sign with a big market team? Don’t kill me, just yet, hear my reasoning. With Lebron staying at Cleveland and Kobe ‘s retirement, Nike doesn’t have a big name in a big market for the first time in ages. Considering they will take over NBA apparel from next season, they will probably want a large scale ad campaign and what will be better than having a likable face in KD gracing the 5th avenue and Times Square donning the home teams jersey? Just from a marketing perspective it will be an advertisers dream. It is probably dilusional but marketing is huge in the NBA nowadays. Keep up the good work.

    112. From Alex Kennedy

      “NBA free agent who asks to be anonymous says his top 4 destinations, all things being equal, would be:
      1. Spurs
      2. Raptors
      3. Cavs
      4. Knicks”

    113. If the DRose trade ends up getting us Durant, I may never criticize Phil again… That’s probably not true, but I would shut up about the Rose trade, at least.

    114. From Alex Kennedy

      “NBA free agent who asks to be anonymous says his top 4 destinations, all things being equal, would be:
      1. Spurs
      2. Raptors
      3. Cavs
      4. Knicks”

      Yes, but that free agent was Kris Humphries.

    115. Somehow the Knicks have acquired Devin Booker. Thanks, Phil!

      Unfortunately it’s not Devin Booker, the Kentucky guard who just had an excellent rookie season for Phoenix at age 19. It’s the other Devin Booker, the 25-year old guy who played four anonymous years at Clemson, then has spent the last three years playing in the French LNB Pro A league. You know, the Devin Booker who will probably never be an NBA player.

    116. @140

      Just when I think you couldn’t be any dumber, you go and do something like this… and totally redeem yourself!

    117. 1. Spurs
      2. Raptors
      3. Cavs
      4. Knicks”

      I would think 2 and 4 should be swapped because of the high income tax in Canada. Plus, we have J-Ho.

    118. There’s one tried and true way to build a contender. Get the #1 pick in the draft. I think we’ve put ourselves in a position to do that. Phil can walk away saying, “I got KP and I got Josh Jackson”.

      The great Greg Popovich put Bob Hill in charge in 1996, then put himself in as coach in 1997. Maybe Phil will come back to coach in 2017.

      As to the salary flexibility, bully! But remember it’s not only that and relying on Melo and KP to recruit. Drose on a one year deal is a lot of ping pong balls. He’s tanktastic. We’re hunting losses. This year we win when we lose. Last year we needed to win to win. We needed to get rid of Rolo because he made us better. Rose makes us lose almost every night, then we have 21 million. It’s a brilliantly horrible move!

      Aflalo and Dwil were the same type of moves as Drose. They suck but fit the suit. Red meat for Dolan. Nice little resumes of how they were good when they were kids. Looks good on the promo. Puts fannies in the seats. One year and gone, more money for us. Look for more moves like that. Might as well hire someone not on the coaching tree since they just get fired anyway. One year deals for shitty players that play as well as they can, only to lose because they’re not good enough. We’re a first round opponent at Wimbledon for Djokovich. We look good in the whites and can serve an ace but it’s over in three sets. FINE! Just do it right. First pick or bust.

    119. There’s one tried and true way to build a contender. Get the #1 pick in the draft. I think we’ve put ourselves in a position to do that. Phil can walk away saying, “I got KP and I got Josh Jackson”.

      The great Greg Popovich put Bob Hill in charge in 1996, then put himself in as coach in 1997. Maybe Phil will come back to coach in 2017.

      As to the salary flexibility, bully! But remember it’s not only that and relying on Melo and KP to recruit. Drose on a one year deal is a lot of ping pong balls. He’s tanktastic. We’re hunting losses. This year we win when we lose. Last year we needed to win to win. We needed to get rid of Rolo because he made us better. Rose makes us lose almost every night, then we have 21 million. It’s a brilliantly horrible move!

      Aflalo and Dwil were the same type of moves as Drose. They suck but fit the suit. Red meat for Dolan. Nice little resumes of how they were good when they were kids. Looks good on the promo. Puts fannies in the seats. One year and gone, more money for us. Look for more moves like that. Might as well hire someone not on the coaching tree since they just get fired anyway. One year deals for shitty players that play as well as they can, only to lose because they’re not good enough. We’re a first round opponent at Wimbledon for Djokovich. We look good in the whites and can serve an ace but it’s over in three sets. FINE! Just do it right. First pick or bust.

      Again, we’ll soon find out if that is the case or not based on who Jackson signs. If he signs decent vets to long-term deals (plus re-signs Galloway and Thomas), that is clearly not his strategy, because if you add a couple of decent vets to this team, they’re not going to compete for the #1 seed even if Rose is just the same guy he was last season (barring freakish injuries to Porzingis and Melo). Who he signs will tell us his plan. If he gives out more 1+1 deals to “mediocre to bad” vets (and doesn’t go over the cap to re-sign Thomas and Galloway), then I can totally buy into “He’s punting the 2016-17 season.”

    120. I was in college with one of Bob Hill’s sons when Pop fired his old man and put himself in charge. Thought that was a real bitchass move and figured Pop would be the next one to go.

      I didn’t always have great opinions about basketball.

    121. Just hung up with D-Ho, who gave me more info to share with y’all:
      -He can flat out play D, at any level
      -He asked me if we are playing the triangle or not. told him it depends who you ask
      -He nearly made Eagle Scout, but provided no specifics
      -He does not want to be called D-Ho, says his name is Justin. Sorry, D-Ho. Request denied
      -He has been trolling the boards and is amused by the trade reaction. He says some of us have it right, some are crazy, and that one dude is straight up buggin.
      -Told me things change….he always hated the Knicks, until a few days ago, and now they are his favorite team.

    122. For the record, I HATED the Bargnani trade. Hated, hated, hated it.
      I was unhappy about the Melo trade.
      I was “meh” about the Amare signing – figured his knees would blow up, but thought we might get a good year or two out of him first.
      I was THRILLED with the Tyson signing.
      I was pretty happy with the Felton signing, since advanced stats said he’d be a Top 15 guard.
      I had no opinion on the Porzingis drafting, since I was set on WCS and hadn’t done any research on the Zinger.

      I’m no DRed, but generally I’m pretty rational when assessing our moves, and mostly things have worked out as I expected.

      So, even though my initial reaction to the trade was to lie down – seriously – I believe I see the logic of the plan, and think it can work out for us.

      Phil is a conservative poker player; every move he makes is calculating risk/reward, hedging hard on risk. Thus, he has done an excellent job of avoiding massive failure (Bargnani trade); he has also failed to maximize success. In each move, he has valued flexibility and risk management over everything else.

      The DRose trade fits that model: lots of top centers are available, so Lopez was expendable, in concept. DRose plays a position of need, and most ACLs take 2 years to recover from, so it is reasonable to expect him to play well – at least, better than Calderon + Grant. If he doesn’t, he is gone after this year. Meanwhile, he does seem to be a draw to top FAs – whether that as rational or not.

      So, worst case? DRose sucks (as he has), we don’t sign a Durant, we don’t sign a good C. But at the end of another bad year, we have a top draft choice and room for 2 max signings next year.

      Best case? DRose returns to form (still not great, but decent), we sign Whiteside or Durant, we sign a CLee/Bazemore, we add another top FA next year to a loaded team.

      The downside isn’t that down, the upside isn’t that up. But it’s a rational middle path.

    123. The one time Phil has opted for high-risk, high-reward was drafting Porzingis. That is, rationally speaking, the best time to opt for high-risk, high-reward; it’s the best chance to remake the franchise. Phil got that one right (though I still like WCS).

      Either way, I think this move will work out for the Knicks – just not in 2016. I do think Rose will play OK, but he just wasn’t that good to start with. I don’t think we’ll land Durant. I do think we’ll get a good C – probably not Whiteside, but someone on a decent contract who can give Zinger another year to develop, Noah on a 1+1 or something like that.. And I think we’ll land a decent wing, maybe on a more long-term contract.

      We’ll win 35 games, we’ll have a high enough pick in the draft, and we’ll sign two great FAs next summer.

    124. I’m with Rama generally on Phil’s approach, and it’s good analysis, though the inability to get more value from Lopez was omitted, and that is what makes it a bad deal as a stand-alone.

      It makes no sense that the Knicks couldn’t pry at least one first rounder, especially when they included Grant!

      Conceptually it’s sound, but the execution was horrendous.

      Jowles, JK and friends seem to think Phil was motivated solely by brand name.

      It would be interesting to see if they thought Jackson had any useful basketball knowledge.

    125. Jowles, JK and friends seem to think Phil was motivated solely by brand name.

      It would be interesting to see if they thought Jackson had any useful basketball knowledge.

      Here’s a serious question: Do you simply defer to Jackson’s supposed GM expertise, or do you understand it? Like, can you give us a sophist’s– er, analytical answer to criticism about Jackson’s decision-making?

      If the former, that’s great. Real smart. Good thinking.

      If the latter, can you explain to the rest of us why Carmelo Anthony has a no-trade clause?

    126. The “we didn’t trade draft picks” argument makes no sense to me, and I think touches on an issue the distorts a lot of discussion about front office decisions. IRL, let’s say you have items X, Y and Z, which combine to be worth $100, and you trade them for items A, B and C, which combine to be worth $50. No matter what the letters represent, you understand that that was a bad choice.

      But for some reason when it comes to NBA front office choices, people don’t bother making these simple translations. I think it’s mostly because different NBA asset types hold their value in vastly different ways. Most players only go down in trade value once they’ve played crossed 23 or so. Players north of 28 regularly go from values to liabilities within 24 months. In any case, it confuses what should be simple.

      There’s no difference between trading a player worth picks in trade and trading picks. I mean, let’s imagine that a this trade —

      team A sends: 2013 Steve Novak + 2013 Marcus Camby + a future pick that would be the worst of two teams coming off 50+ win seasons + some second round picks

      team B sends: Robin Lopez + Jerian Grant

      who won that trade? If it’s even close, then what we gave up is similar to what we gave up in Bargnani trade.

      Every time you evaluate a choice a team makes, the first thing to do is consider opportunity cost — translate the value of what was received and given. We gave Afflalo + Williams $12.5m. What is the fair market value of $12.5m in cap space? What would the most desperate team trade right now to have $12.5m extra cap room? We didn’t just “roll our cap space over”. We traded that for 1 year rentals of two mediocre players. What is the market value of the $21m in cap space we’ll use on Rose this season? What is the market value of $11m in cap room in 13/14 and 14/15 we spent on Bargnani? Add it all up, and compare.

    127. who won that trade? If it’s even close, then what we gave up is similar to what we gave up in Bargnani trade.

      Omg. I wish people would stop this shit. This trade netted a probable high 2nd round pick. That trade give up a fucking lotto pick AND 2 2s.

      That’s all you need to know. They aren’t close. Bargnani I believe was under contract for two years as well.

    128. Every time you evaluate a choice a team makes, the first thing to do is consider opportunity cost — translate the value of what was received and given. We gave Afflalo + Williams $12.5m. What is the fair market value of $12.5m in cap space? What would the most desperate team trade right now to have $12.5m extra cap room? We didn’t just “roll our cap space over”. We traded that for 1 year rentals of two mediocre players. What is the market value of the $21m in cap space we’ll use on Rose this season? What is the market value of $11m in cap room in 13/14 and 14/15 we spent on Bargnani? Add it all up, and compare.

      I believe that taking a flyer on a high-production rookie minimuim UFA is a better use of a roster slot than Derrick Rose at any salary, including rookie minimum. I’m obviously on the “risk-averse” side of the spectrum.

    129. There’s no difference between trading a player worth picks in trade and trading picks. I mean, let’s imagine that a this trade

      There’s a strong argument against this statement and it’s economics. If you draft high and get a player (see Porzingis) that is really good but whose salary you control, you have cap space to spare. The average for those first three years for the 2016-17 #1 overall pick is $5.14M per year. And then you get the 4th year option and the qualifying offer.

      If you collect picks and build a nucleus, you can add high priced players to the mix. Look at Phoenix. They drafted Dragen Bender 4th and Marquese Chriss 8th. Let’s say they turn out to be above average starters in the league. Their combined average salaries total $6,285,500 together. That’s why people have a right to be pissed about trading away Grant. What if he develops into a decent rotation player? All you need to do is look at all the 1st round picks that we traded away over the years and who they were. I’ll let others list them.

    130. That’s why people have a right to be pissed about trading away Grant.

      I do understand that.

    131. DRose for Prez: Omg. I wish people would stop this shit. This trade netted a probable high 2nd round pick. That trade give up a fucking lotto pick AND 2 2s.

      That’s all you need to know. They aren’t close. Bargnani I believe was under contract for two years as well.

      These are my words:

      who won that trade? If it’s even close, then what we gave up is similar to what we gave up in Bargnani trade.

      I wasn’t stating anything about what came back in the trade. I was referring specifically to what we sent out. Many rationalizations for the trade go something like, “well, we didn’t send picks.” My point was in response to what I view as a meaningless distinction since $10 is $10 is $10 no matter what form it takes. If RoLo is worth picks, then we traded picks. It’s no difference.

      You wanna talk about the return? We can. Let me know!

    132. There’s probably a distinction to be made between a guy who you think is worth a 1st rounder vs. your allotted 1st round pick whose value is directly tied to your team’s performance.

    133. I was in college with one of Bob Hill’s sons when Pop fired his old man and put himself in charge. Thought that was a real bitchass move and figured Pop would be the next one to go.

      I didn’t always have great opinions about basketball.

      The bolded needs a lot more love

    134. May I summarize the argument that has gone on for, I don’t know, 400 posts or so?

      Camp 1: Derrick Rose sux

      Camp 2: Derrick Rose might not suck

      So let’s move on, shall we?

    135. @ the don nelson era

      True. There is a distinction especially in a league where peak potential value matters more than average value. Every team that wins titles hits on their inside straight draw numerous times while the teams that consistently get pairs lose in the 1st round. A 2% chance at a star and 98% chance at a dud is more valuable than a 90% chance of a decent role player and and a 0% chance of a star (at least for the 20+ teams that are at least one inside straight hit away from title contention). Even if you think your pick will be lower, the fact that it can be higher than a pick that’s locked in already, the potential for it to be higher is extra valuable.

      That said, the pick in the Bargnani trade was about as close to protected as a pick can be. Not only did Denver own swap rights, but both Denver and NY were coming off 50+ win seasons. What were the odds that both teams would finish in the bottom nine of the league?

    136. There’s no difference between trading a player worth picks in trade and trading picks. I mean, let’s imagine that a this trade —

      team A sends: 2013 Steve Novak + 2013 Marcus Camby + a future pick that would be the worst of two teams coming off 50+ win seasons + some second round picks

      team B sends: Robin Lopez + Jerian Grant

      who won that trade? If it’s even close, then what we gave up is similar to what we gave up in Bargnani trade.

      Anyone who thinks team B’s package is comperable is a rube.

      Lopez a barely above avg league C and grant is a 24yr old rookie who needs to develop in a major way.

    137. D-mar I tried to bring the Visigoths into the conversation but nobody listens to me

    138. D-mar I tried to bring the Visigoths into the conversation but nobody listens to me

      I’m more of an Ostrogoths guy, but that’s just me…

    139. That’s why people have a right to be pissed about trading away Grant.

      I do understand that.

      Grant falls down a lot.

    140. I think it’s fair to say that trading Grant was the equivalent of trading a pick. Some posters here might say go get a replacement value player, but I say that replacement value player is someone like Sasha Vujacic. If you bring someone from D-league, we already have that experience from Phil’s first year and it wasn’t good. So I think he was better than “replacement value”. And you can’t replace him with another young, cost controlled player on the free agent market because players like him are bound to the teams that drafted him.

      I think Lopez can probably be replaced for the money he costs. Although with the rising cap uncertainty, I’m not sure. So the Rose trade can be thought of as the equivalent of giving up a first round pick, for Rose, a journeyman wing and a second round pick. I leave out Lopez because the cap space we got might be worth what he is worth

    141. Since some of you guys like Bazemore, I’ve been reading up on him since is he unrestricted and guys like Crabbe, Fournier and Johnson are likely to be matched, no matter what offered.

      So, say Durant and Batum, as expected, stay home. Say the Knicks can sign, seal and deliver Bazemore for 4/$72 million (I’ve been reading estimates that he could get 4/$70m offers).

      Yes or no?

    142. The DRose trade is a gamble but I’ve noticed that people who are really against it are underplaying the fact that we got a second round pick and Justin Holiday out of the trade too.

      Put it this way. If you break the trade down into two trades it doesn’t look so bad.

      Grant for Holiday and a Second Round pick.

      Rolo and Calderon for DRose – get rid of Calderon, take a gamble for a potential big upgrade at PG for one year and free up cap space for next season while allowing us to focus more on SG and bigs this FA which is lacking PGs besides Conley. Conley would have required A max contract which to me is a bigger risk than one year of DRose. Sucks to lose Lopez but there are other bigs out there we can replace him with. And losing grant doesn’t hurt so much bc we did get back Holiday And a second round pick which at this point isn’t that much less value than Grant who was a late first rounder and is all ready 24.

    143. re: Bazemore
      I’d do it under those conditions.

      Reasons:

      Fills a need.
      Plays defense.
      A warrior.
      Entering prime.
      $16M per is the new $10M.
      And obviously threes.
      It’s not my money.

    144. @173. That’s one of the better defenses of the trade that I’ve seen. How Holiday performs next year vs. how Grant does will be interesting to watch. I still don’t like Rose!
      :-)

      Meanwhile, Bazemore for 4/$72m? Yes or no?

      Reub’s on board.

    145. Theodorics, ranked

      1. Theodoric the Great
      2. Theodoric Strabo
      3. Theodoric I

      4. Theodoric II aka Theodoric the Failson

    146. Theodorics, ranked

      1. Theodoric the Great
      2. Theodoric Strabo
      3. Theodoric I

      4. Theodoric II aka Theodoric the Failson

      You left out Theo Epstein and Theodoric of York, medieval barber.

    147. I laugh heartily at the idea that I “pretend” to root for the Knicks. My love for the Knicks is one of the only constants in my life. It is my bond to friends that I have buried. It is stronger than rational thought. I stood cheering for 125 seconds the night that Bernard King returned for a meaningless game.

      Just because I love the Knicks (and will root for the 2016-17 team with all of my heart) does not mean that I will ignore the folly of expecting Derrick Rose to return to 2011 form.

    148. I think I read somewhere that Conley had indicated to the Knicks he would not be coming here. So when Phil made the trade, he know Conley would not be available to us.

    149. It’s been one hour, Clashfan, and no one’s given an answer to your question about how much to pay Bazemore except for me. It’s much easier just to complain about everything after the fact, I guess.

    150. Anyone who thinks team B’s package is comperable is a rube.

      Lopez a barely above avg league C and grant is a 24yr old rookie who needs to develop in a major way.

      It’s hilarious that all season long Lopez was a major talking point to prove Jackson’s doubters wrong but as soon as he’s traded he’s just a barely above average center. If you’re saying now that we can replace Lopez for the same money, then you’re also saying that Jackson overpaid for Lopez by about 50% last summer.

      And what is so tasty about what we gave up for Bargnani? Neither of the players ever played in a rotation again (as expected for Camby, and Novak was overpaid) and the pick, as I’ve written numerous times, was a long shot to even be top 20.

    151. Let me answer for them. He will cost money so no. He’s not Klay Thompson so no. His WP/48/PER/ usage %/efg% is average so no. He went at KP once so no. He’s a product of his system so no. Phil wants him then hell no. We’d rather hold out for a better team in 2026 so no.

    152. I like Bazemore and I think he’d be a good fit here. I think Nic Batum might be a slightly better overall player, but Batum will probably command a bit more money I would guess. Bazemore is a nice two-way player and would easily be the team’s #1 defensive wing. Good catch and shoot guy, rebounds very well for a wing.

      We’ll see if he’s available at 4/72 though. There are going to be some crazy contracts flying around when free agency starts.

    153. I wouldn’t give Bazemore anymore than 4/$60m and even that I think is generous. I like his competitiveness and his defensively ability, but being a smaller 2 he doesn’t strike me as wing that can shift down and defend the 3 effectively. Also he’s not a good enough playmaker to justify his turnover issues and his inconsistent 3 point shot is an issue.

    154. It’s hilarious that all season long Lopez was a major talking point to prove Jackson’s doubters wrong but as soon as he’s traded he’s just a barely above average center. If you’re saying now that we can replace Lopez for the same money, then you’re also saying that Jackson overpaid for Lopez by about 50% last summer.

      And what is so tasty about what we gave up for Bargnani? Neither of the players ever played in a rotation again (as expected for Camby, and Novak was overpaid) and the pick, as I’ve written numerous times, was a long shot to even be top 20.

      1. Not everybody thought Lopez was great value. I liked him, but there certainly was no consensus. I also don’t think it’s some Herculean task to find a reasonable replacement for his production at a similar AAV.

      2. What’s tasty about what we gave up for Bargnani is the opportunity cost. That same deal would have netted us Lowry like a month later.

    155. If y’all want a deep sleeper, we should throw some money towards James Ennis. Dude is a productive player who can’t get on the court because he’s not much of an offensive player, but he’d be nice as a sort of poor man’s Aminu, and if we’re really looking to run more he can dunk the fuck out of the basketball.

    156. Latke,

      It’s not contradictory to say Lopez was good value and also that he’s barely above average. If you want to build a team slowly, such players are good to have, until something better comes along; and because they have good value for their contracts, they are tradeable for something else. I think the haters of the trade on this board feel that way because they hate getting Rose and think he’s irredeemably awful.

      I’m not really sure Rose is iredeemably awful. I don’t like the trade because I wanted to build slowly with young guys and think that free agency is not as beneficial in hiring as people hope it might be. But I don’t think Phil got ripped off in the way I felt Walsh got ripped of when he traded for Anthony. And, I like Lopez and Grant to boot.

    157. May I summarize the argument that has gone on for, I don’t know, 400 posts or so?

      Camp 1: Derrick Rose sux

      Camp 2: Derrick Rose might not suck

      Or Camp 3, which is what I said: It doesn’t matter whether Rose sucks or not, that was never the point (so to speak).

      @ruru – I omitted that I thought Phil got terrible value back for RoLo. The trade hasn’t lowered my opinion that Robin is an above-average center on a great deal (and a likable player). He IS slow, which could have been part of the thinking – but that was not good value in any calculation.

      Still, my point was only that Phil is playing the odds, hedging his bets, limiting the down side, retaining flexibility – not that it was a good trade in itself. It wasn’t. Bargnani bad, though? Not even close. Trading for multiple years of a player who has never been good in any year? Giving away a first? Just unbelievably bad.

      And what is so tasty about what we gave up for Bargnani?

      I can’t even.

      I do think Rose will have a rebound year. I just don’t think that means a whole hell of a lot. And I doubt he’ll mesh well with Melo. We’ll see. But Bargnani was a dumpster fire we gave away picks for. Can’t top that.

    158. I will say one thing though, if Phil’s big master plan is to score two big superstar free agents in this year and next year’s class, signing Bazemore will be a giant impediment to that.

      A player like Bazemore sums up the Knicks’ problems in a nutshell: yes, he’s a pretty nice player. Yes, he’d make the team better because right now at SG the team is completely barren. But is Kent Bazemore a guy who you want to tie up like 20% of your payroll, or something like that? No. He’s not likely to outperform his contract. You have to get surplus value from somewhere, and that’s either going to be from mega-kickass superstars like Steph Curry, KD and LeBron, or productive players on rookie contracts, or smart, below-market bargain signings, guys like Ed Davis. Kent Bazemore on a market-value contract does not move the needle all that much.

    159. You want value you come on down to DRed’s Free Agent Forum where we got sleepers priced to move. What do I have to say to get you to drive off with a pre-owned Solomon Hill?

    160. I can’t believe no one has disputed my ranking Theodoric Strabo above Theodoric I.

      Doesn’t really meet the eye test. I mean, in those days, they used actual eyes.

    161. SAS: QUITE FRANKLY, WHAT I WANT TO KNOW IS WAS THEODORIC I REALLY A ROUGH RIDER?

      Me: Well he did literally fight from horseback and he helped defeat Attilla the Hun at Chalons an-

      SAS: YES BUT HE DIED

    162. I apologize for getting frustrated with all the negativity here. I’ll try to do better in the future.

    163. What about Cleanthony Early as our two? Last year he started showing signs of scoring, he might be OK there. We also could use Thanasis if we just wanted defense. Any thoughts?

    164. What about Cleanthony Early as our two? Last year he started showing signs of scoring, he might be OK there. We also could use Thanasis if we just wanted defense. Any thoughts?

      I think he should be given every chance to make the roster, but you really can’t rely on him.

    165. If Early improves such that he makes Lance Thomas expendable, sign him on a cheap multi year deal.

      To do that, he’ll have to get the 3pt% north if at least 35% (which he hadn’t done yet) because he is a plus defender at the 2 and 3.

      That’s all a big if.
      I hope he can do it, but I’m not holding my breath.

    166. Meanwhile, Bazemore for 4/$72m? Yes or no?

      @175 , @182 – Sorry, I just read this.

      The 4 years worry me but it could turn out to be a super value deal in the next few years as salaries are going through the roof. $15 per year could be a bargain is 2018-19. Of course we would never hold on to an asset long enough for him to show value.

    167. Bargnani bad, though? Not even close. Trading for multiple years of a player who has never been good in any year? Giving away a first? Just unbelievably bad.

      We just gave away a #19 pick in a stacked draft. In the Bargs trade, we gave away what turned out to be the #9 pick in a weak draft. It’s worse if you look at it pre-trade since the Bargs pick was projected to be a 20-25 pick at the time. Why do so many people have such a hard time understanding this?

      Again for the umpteenth time, Lopez put up WS/48 the past 3 seasons of +.150. Yes I know this last season it was .126 but that was because he was adjusting to handling the ball more in an offense (more than he’d been required to do at Portland). I believe post-break he was a top 5 center statistically. Plus he’s played all 82 games in 2 of those 3 seasons and 59 in the third one. He’s been able to stay on the floor unlike Noah, Bogut and others. We could argue about replacement value but he is not a “slightly above average center”.

      And Lavor that deal would not have netted Lowry. Raptors wanted 2 of: Shump/THJ/Pick.

      Welcome latke! Keep posting. You are a breath of fresh air compared to a couple of other newbies who have found their way to this site recently. People just have a visceral reaction to Bargs (he’s a terrible lazy player) and are unable to think objectively in comparing the Rose and Bargs deal.

    168. Why do so many people have such a hard time understanding this?

      Because it’s a misrepresentation?

      You are a breath of fresh air compared to a couple of other newbies who have found their way to this site recently.

      Hi, I’ve been here for eight years! Eight long, ugly, painful, depressing, soul-deflating years. So I get why many have succumbed to negativity. It’s rational.

    169. And Lavor that deal would not have netted Lowry. Raptors wanted 2 of: Shump/THJ/Pick.

      Yeah, because we had already handed them a first round pick and two seconds for fucking Bargs. You never make that deal you can combine the assets you gave up for Bargs and what they wanted for Lowry and Dolan doesn’t veto it because Masai already took you to the cleaners a few months prior. If they were going to take THJ/Shump and the 2018 pick for Lowry, they’re going to say no to 2016 pick and THJ/Shump? Or both first round picks for Lowry?

    170. bazemore’s only value is that he’s the best realistically available sg on the market now… he’s probably getting around 20mm/yr.. and i would much rather pay courtney lee or gerald henderson since they are all roughly the same player and those guys have actually done it for more than a year….

    171. We just gave away a #19 pick in a stacked draft. In the Bargs trade, we gave away what turned out to be the #9 pick in a weak draft. It’s worse if you look at it pre-trade since the Bargs pick was projected to be a 20-25 pick at the time. Why do so many people have such a hard time understanding this?

      So your logic is that the draft was weak? Wow. Never mind that the9 pick was an asset but that the draft was weak. All I heard when Melo came here was “assets” now the goal posts have been moved. Cool.

      @202 misrepresentation is a nice way of saying. That this logic is ridiculous. He didn’t even mention the 2nd rounders lmao.

    172. Yeah, because we had already handed them a first round pick and two seconds for fucking Bargs. You never make that deal you can combine the assets you gave up for Bargs and what they wanted for Lowry and Dolan doesn’t veto it because Masai already took you to the cleaners a few months prior. If they were going to take THJ/Shump and the 2018 pick for Lowry, they’re going to say no to 2016 pick and THJ/Shump? Or both first round picks for Lowry?

      It’s not clear we do that deal if we had retained the draft pick. The Lowry of then was not close to the Lowry of now. And the Shump/THJ of then were not regarded as the Shump/THJ they ended up being.

    173. While I hate the trade I have to say that the idea that prime Derrick Rose was just an overrated chucker a bit baffling. Did he deserve the MVP? No way. But he was really good- 5th in WS (10th in WS per 48) and 3rd in Vorp. He was 8th in assist % but with a lower turnover rate than just about everyone ahead of him on the list. And he was arguably better the next year though he only played 39 games. In short- it’s tough to argue that he wasn’t a top 10 player before the injury woes so the whole “he was never that good to begin with” argument seems crazy to me. As I said I hate the trade- I think the most likely best case is that he sucks so bad the Knicks get a high lottery pick. More likely, I think he’s just run-of-the-mill shitty (I do think he’ll be better than last year for various reasons but still pretty bad) and the Knicks wind up in the middle of the lottery. And as numerous people have mentioned, if he’s even close to his old form that increases the likelihood that the Knicks will max him out which could be potentially disastrous. But he was still a very good player in his prime.

    174. Courtney Lee would work for me especially on a 1+1 contract. Maybe Holiday can be our Bazemore at a bargain price?

    175. @202 misrepresentation is a nice way of saying. That this logic is ridiculous. He didn’t even mention the 2nd rounders lmao.

      Rama (and others) implication that we didn’t give up a pick is a distinction without a real difference. And 2nd round picks almost never amount to anything so it’s difficult to include them in any meaningful way. Holiday’s been horrible every year he’s been in the league except for recent stretch where he hit 3s at a high %. If that continues, then sure that’s a huge plus. We won’t know for sure until 1 or even 2 years from now about Grant/Holiday.

    176. Is there any more trades NY can make to fill their 2 guard needs or bench depth?

      Will Charolette try to dump Lamb so they can resign Batum, Lee, and William’s?

      Can the Knicks try to get 1 of the Nuggets 15 guards they seem to have on their roster.

      Who is on the trade market besides Monroe and Rubio? I still want to give up a protected 2018 pick for Noel

    177. You are a breath of fresh air compared to a couple of other newbies who have found their way to this site recently.

      Hi, I’ve been here for eight years! Eight long, ugly, painful, depressing, soul-deflating years. So I get why many have succumbed to negativity. It’s rational.

      Rama I was not referring to you in that statement. I was referring to Drose for prez who called anyone who disagrees with him a “rube” (not a great way to make a first impression on a site). And the other is someone whose schtick is starting get old and tiresome. Hint: his user ID is an anagram of “rube”.

    178. Rama I was not referring to you in that statement. I was referring to Drose for prez who called anyone who disagrees with him a “rube” (not a great way to make a first impression on a site). And the other is someone whose schtick is starting get old and tiresome. Hint: his user ID is an anagram of “rube”.

      DRose for Prez is er. Some of us just changed our names

    179. Lamb fell out of favor as the season progressed.

      Is it possible that Phil traded Lopez because he is totally gaga over Hassan Whiteside and will offer him his $22M max? Imagining KP and Whiteside swatting away anything that flies….

      We’d still have close to $10M for a SG I believe.

    180. In short- it’s tough to argue that he wasn’t a top 10 player before the injury woes so the whole “he was never that good to begin with” argument seems crazy to me.

      I said he was good, not great. I said he won the MVP because of his teammates and his volume scoring. Paul, Nash and Rondo were far better than he was that year, but they didn’t have a bunch of defensive geniuses behind them.

    181. While I hate the trade I have to say that the idea that prime Derrick Rose was just an overrated chucker a bit baffling. Did he deserve the MVP? No way. But he was really good- 5th in WS (10th in WS per 48) and 3rd in Vorp. He was 8th in assist % but with a lower turnover rate than just about everyone ahead of him on the list. And he was arguably better the next year though he only played 39 games. In short- it’s tough to argue that he wasn’t a top 10 player before the injury woes so the whole “he was never that good to begin with” argument seems crazy to me. As I said I hate the trade- I think the most likely best case is that he sucks so bad the Knicks get a high lottery pick. More likely, I think he’s just run-of-the-mill shitty (I do think he’ll be better than last year for various reasons but still pretty bad) and the Knicks wind up in the middle of the lottery. And as numerous people have mentioned, if he’s even close to his old form that increases the likelihood that the Knicks will max him out which could be potentially disastrous. But he was still a very good player in his prime.

      Yeah, he really made himself into a really good player by the time he got hurt. I was dreaming of the Knicks having a chance at drafting him and he ended up exceeding my already high expectations for him.

    182. DRose for Prez is er. Some of us just changed our names

      Heh, well I’m glad he changed his name because I sometimes confused er and eb. Also ironic that he took Jowles’ lead in changing his name. I never figured er would end up being a “follower of Cock”.

    183. @KnickfaninNJ

      RoLo makes $13m. Let’s say he’s paid 20% less than his value, so his true FA value is about $16m. Average NBA salary is like $6m. Even if you add $5m more because that average is weighed down by rookie contracts and true max players, you’re at $11m for an average NBA player in free agency. So I don’t think you can say both that he’s a good value on his contract and an average NBA player.

      I would def agree if you said average/mediocre NBA starter.

      @Zanzibar,

      I’m not new! I used to post all the time under this account and then switched many years back. I’ve decided to go back for the moment. Thanks for the kind words though!

      In regard to your comment, IMO we all have a tendency to distort the past to suit our preferred narrative. I will confess that I find the idea of substituting a focus on leveraging the above board rules of the CBA and incrementally acquiring and developing talent for sinking into the politics of star hunting a little disgusting. I want to believe that the NBA is fair and that the strategies that pay off don’t have anything to do with market size or the whims of superstars or the politics of agents and sponsors.

      It just so happens that the NBA has done a pretty damn good job of cutting the legs off the value of the latter strategy.

      I’m sure I’m still biased to some degree though even though I try very hard to check myself (before I wreck myself!). My emotional response to the Melo deal, for example, was real negative, but I also knew it wasn’t necessarily a bad thing. It wasn’t until 13/14 that I started to argue that it was time to move on, and that was more because of Amar’e’s decline than anything Melo did or didn’t do.

    184. I’m not new! I used to post all the time under this account and then switched many years back. I’ve decided to go back for the moment.

      I feel dumber than Bargs! Who the hell is everybody? I got er and Jowles. But someone update me on who everyone else is. Latke, what name have you been posting under?

    185. “Gasol signed a three-year, $22.3 million deal with the Bulls in the summer of 2014 ”

      Can someone please explain to me why some still cry for the “fairly” paid Rolo ?

      i mean…REALLY ???

    186. I think the two camps the posters here fall into re: the Rose trade are:

      Those who will always think the trade was a bad idea no matter how it turns out. Jowles, JK47, BrianC and others are in this camp. They see no upside to this trade whatsoever.

      Those who think it depends on how Rose plays and whether he stays healthy, i.e. it can only be judged in retrospect b/c it’s impossible to gauge the odds of his playing well…he has had both brilliant and bad seasons, his level of play is totally contingent on his health, and we have no idea what his health status is (other than he was healthier last year than the 3 years before.) Me, Frank, rama and others are in this camp. I posted my own break-even stats in a previous thread.

      I guess it’s time to move on to FA, Friday should be interesting!! I think Gasol is gonna wind up here on something like a $20 mill for 2 year deal.

    187. “At a press conference Monday, Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg called his new center “Brook Lopez’’ instead of Robin Lopez.”

    188. Put me on a 3rd camp:
      “The nuts ones”
      I’m very excited to have DRose on my team, i love the trade and can’t wait for the upcoming season.

      Rolo was the most sympathetic big man we had in years but unfortunately we needed to upgrade.
      Besides numbers there are also emotions and as TRUE Bulls fans feel about losing their “heart & soul” that’s how i feel every time my team trades,waives or let players go…
      but that’s how this game is played folks

    189. Can we pivot from statistical analysis (which we’ve been ignoring anyway) to slam poetry? Dance back, Reub!

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