Knicks Morning News (2016.06.15)

  • [ESPN.com – New York Knicks] Wednesday's Knicks Links: Channing Frye thinks Jeff Hornacek was a good choice (Wed, 15 Jun 2016 05:16:04 EST)

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    Mike Kurylo

    Mike Kurylo is the founder and editor of KnickerBlogger.net. His book on the 2012 Knicks, "We’ll Always Have Linsanity," is on sale now. Follow him on twitter (@KnickerBlogger).

    84 thoughts to “Knicks Morning News (2016.06.15)”

    1. from the last thread… i’m kinda shocked ppl wouldn’t like conley… he’s always been underrated… he’s played on the slowest team in the nba and still excelled… he’s 29 but still within his peak (PER 19.4 vs peak PER 20)…

      if we assume we’re never trading melo… then we have the next 3 seasons to at least try and be good…. unless we just enjoy being bad… it’s basically a freeroll and a 4yr max would take us through melo’s contract while he would get be able to at least play with melo while he’s still some semblance of the old melo…

      there’s really no one in this year’s FA class that will presumably be part of the next core so i don’t think there are better alternatives and arguably there aren’t any better alternatives in next year’s class…. unless you think we’d have a chance at cp3…

      we might not be warrior or even cavs caliber but we would get to 50 wins if we’re reasonably healthy… i think that’s worth the small risk in signing conley…..

    2. I wouldnt mind seeing Conley in a Knicks uniform, but I would try first signing Fournier (and Durant, but well…), as he is young, a good shooter, and there are very few good SGs in the league. He is still just above average, but I think you can count on him improving, and in any case, the max coming from the rookie scale is not as big.

    3. @ 2 – I am generally agree with you but his recent injury worries me. But I’d rather us be good during Melo’s contract than bad and I think even if we aren’t competing for a title, being a 50 win playoff team is good for our future post Melo as it allows Zinger to get experience on a team that wins and plays in the playoffs. That is important. And its going to be easier to attract free agents in 3 or 4 years to fill Melo and Conley’s place if our team is good. We’ll have first round picks going forward after this year so its not like we won’t be adding youth to the team. We will. They just won’t be lottery picks but that doesn’t mean we can’t find the next superstar with a mid or late first rounder. It happens quite often.

    4. There are some here who would doom the Knicks to the bottom of the rack level in perpetuity. But Phil is ready to move us upward and onward towards greatness. And rings!

    5. He’s an above average PG, but not anything special.

      Depending on how you define “average point guard”, especially in the Steph Curry era, an above average PG could actually be extremely special to a team in need of a PG. If Curry, Westbrook, and Paul are elite, then Lowry, Thomas, Lillard, Irving, Conley, Teague, Walker, Jackson, Bledsoe, and Wall can all be defined as the “above average” class.

      Conley, since becoming the starting PG in Memphis, has a +.600 winning percentage. He’s played in an extremely competitive conference and has made the playoffs every year (50 playoff games on his resume), and all the time playing as the floor leader of a team with no true star player.

      Conley is a very good player, and is one of the few obvious “max contract” players in this year’s class. I think the Knicks would be more than happy to throw $100,000,000+ at home if he was willing to take it from them. It wouldn’t be the greatest free agent signing in Knicks history (although, given the sorry track record of Knicks FA acquisitions, it could actually rank up there with Allan Houston, all things considered), but there are worse players the Knicks could hire to play point guard, as they have demonstrated proficiently during the Howard Eisley/Moochie Norris/Vaseline Eater/TDDWTTD/Sergio Rodriguez/Chris Duhon/Ray Felton/Mike Bibby/Baron Davis/Shane Larkin/Jose Calderone era.

    6. I mean did we even really have a pg last year? Does Calderon count as a pg even though he does few pg like things and has a vastly different skill set than almost any modern day pg, who runs the pick and roll. Sure he’s shown he can do lots of those things in the past but last year he was more of a shooting guard that happened to bring the ball up the court. Same with Galloway.

    7. A 29 year old pg coming off an achilles injury who derived at least a decent chunk of his value on the defensive end seems like a poor bet at 25m a year. Even if healthy he’d probably only be worth that salary for a year or two.

    8. if conley is who Phil wants to throw money at, I’d probably be ok with that. If giving out a max I’d rather have Batum just because i think he fits better, but Conley would be all right.

      It’d be a 4 year deal taking him through age 32, and depending on playoffs or not, may take him up to the ~30000 minute mark. I think it’d be reasonable to assume he would still provide significant value even at the end of that contract. CARMELO (the fiverthirtyeight.com projection thing) still thinks e’s valuable up until that age. Looking at other similarly sized PGs who don’t rely on otherworldly athleticism, it seems like 33-34 may be roughly where they start falling apart.

      The injury risk thing is real though. Will need a really good physical.

    9. Also his Achilles injury was tendinitis, not a rupture/tear. I imagine that is not nearly as serious. I don’t believe this is a recurring issue for him (ie. he had 1 episode lasting months, not many episodes).

    10. He’s also a smallish PG, and they tend to have a shorter shelf life. I think injury is a major concern with him, as opposed to guys built like tanks (e.g. Lowry…short but not small.)

    11. @8 Only $25 million a year if it is Memphis and they offer him all 5 years. For the Knicks, he’d be 4 years/$92 million. Still a big chunk of change, but, if all the two guards get away (and they might all just stay where they are or get matched)…

      But yeah, the Achilles is a bit scary.

    12. You left out Billups!!

      But yeah, in an NBA with the following list of point guards, all of whom are MUCH better than anyone under 35 the Knicks have played in the last 17+ years, you can see just how far behind the Knicks are in terms of that position only:

      Steph Curry, Westbrook, Chris Paul, Lowry, Lillard, Isaiah Thomas, Wall, Kemba, Parker, Teague, Conley, Knight, Hill, Rose, Beverley, Dragic, Rubio, Reggie Jackson, Holiday, Mudiay, Ish, Sweet Lou, MCW, Jarrett Jack, Barea, Payton, Exum

      I mean, damn, Calderon is so, so, so much worse than all of those. Even having Barea would almost completely transform our offense.

    13. Yeah, Achilles tendinitis is a completely different animal than a ruptured Achilles. Achilles tendinitis is chronic and can lead to a rupture, but rarely. Rest is key.

      It’s something to definitely evaluate before drawing out a contract, but it’s NOT a rupture.

    14. Nothing like adding a second declining player on a bloated contract to go with our already declining player on a bloated contract.

    15. Yeah, I have always loved Conley as a player. But it’s a win now move for an organization that will struggle to make the playoffs even with him performing to expectations. Just doesn’t seem wise to commit to him long term rather than sitting back and patiently rebuilding. And trading Melo.

    16. People whose idea of how the Knicks should approach free agency/the next few years revolves around the hope of trading Carmelo Anthony should really put that at the beginning of their comments so that the rest of us can scroll right on past.

    17. Trade Melo is an ok idea, but I think the Knicks should trade Jerian Grant for Chris Paul, straight up. Why not? There’s an equal chance of both happening, and in my proposal we add an All-NBA talent.

    18. FYI, taking Conley would be a bad move in my opinion, despite what I said above.

      But he would be a significant upgrade at our most needed position, with skills (defense especially) that we sorely, sorely need. It would absolutely upgrade the entire team.

      But we shouldn’t max out a 29 year old with a chronic Achilles issue at this stage.

    19. I don’t dislike Conley and am not trying to make a case against signing him. I am simply arguing that if you think he’s going to turn the Knicks from a 32 win team into a playoff team all by himself, IMO you are wrong. IMO Conley may be worth about 8 wins in total (10 at best). So if you think we got 0 wins from Calderon, then maybe he gets us to 40 wins. I do not think Calderon was worth 0 wins. He scored efficiently, doesn’t turn the ball over, and is not a basket case in other areas on offense. He was worth a few wins.

      If you want to know where our real upside is, it’s KP’s TS% going from 51.8% to 57% or 58% on a slightly higher usage%. That would add a couple of point to our offense all by itself even if he doesn’t improve in any other facet of the game. If he can improve in another area, he could be worth an extra 5-10 wins over last year.

    20. If KP’s usage remained the same and he achieved that kind of increase in scoring efficiency we’d be golden.

    21. What a frustrating blog this is these days. This is what I’m hearing:

      “We don’t want to overpay for (fill in the blank)”
      “That guy is (pick one of the following:hurt|an a-hole|not a team player|not worth what he wants)”

      As far as I’m concerned, I want the Knicks to be playoff-bound in 2017. My message to Phil (which I think is his plan anyhow) is to get the best players that you can now. We’ll figure the future out in the future.

      I’m too old to wait 5 years for the “patient plan”.

    22. We can and will win now. And the nattering nabobs of negativity will come on board when it happens and profess that it was their plan all along, not Phil’s.

      Oh btw, I’ve had achilles tendinitis and I’m fine.

    23. I think Conley is worth whatever Memphis is going to pay him. They know his injury best. If they let someone else sing him away from them, that team should beware.

      Everyone loving Evan Fournier should ask why he could barely get off Denver’s bench for 2 years. Bazemore too. Lets not pay a guy with a 1 year track record.

      I would target Batum then DeRozean, but Batum is staying in Charlotte. Then fill in the pieces. If that fails, you split that $$ btw Evan Turner and someone like Ish Smith, try to avoid long term deals and pray.

      If Cle offered Love, their #1 this year, and their #1 in two years for Melo, would you do it? If he’s going to waive to go anywhere, it’s at the request of Lebron.

      Another crazy idea, Miami signs’ Wade for 2 years and does the same deal, sign and trade, for Love

    24. I agree that it is hard to see how much better the Knicks get with the addition of Mike Conley. We need LG to be the guy who was on track to post double digit wins, we need KP to improve, and we need Lopez to play the same (or to trade him for a productive NBA player and sign Whiteside). You need to be around 45 wins to make the EC playoffs. We would have to improve 13 wins on our current rotation, and we’re off to a bad start if one of Grant/Wroten are likely to play 2,000 minutes. If you want to make the playoffs with a roster in which you return 3 starters from a 32 win team, you need to have an excellent free agency period and then you’ll need KP to double his productivity by fouling less, grabbing 2-3 more boards a game and upping his efficiency 50-60 points. If you could grab Conley and one (or both) of Solo Hill and Troy Daniels, I could see it happening.

      The big point is you need to have a great FA period. Giving Conley $23 million of our expected $36 million makes that difficult, but it could work out.

    25. An interesting case study is this year’s Miami Heat. Almost everybody on that team had average production for the position except Hassan Whiteside who was their best player by far this season. If you have a bunch of guys who hover around .100 WP or WS and you put them around a superstar, you make the playoffs. Conley isn’t Whiteside though, so it still would be difficult.

    26. “Nothing like adding a second declining player on a bloated contract to go with our already declining player on a bloated contract”. “Ultimately won’t matter much, I doubt Conley comes to the Knicks.”

      The Gold Medal Winning New York Negativity – it’s awesome and why I come to this site!

    27. I’m too old to wait 5 years for the “patient plan”.

      Were you too old 5 years ago?

    28. If Cle offered Love, their #1 this year, and their #1 in two years for Melo, would you do it? If he’s going to waive to go anywhere, it’s at the request of Lebron.

      fuckin’ hell fuckin’ yeah

    29. btw, I’ve had achilles tendinitis and I’m fine.

      It’s been effecting your posts here at knickerblogger, I think.

    30. I agree that it is hard to see how much better the Knicks get with the addition of Mike Conley.

      Uh I guess you gentlemen missed the Calderon/Galloway/Grant triumvirate in action this year. SMDH.

    31. Conley is maybe a B on his best days and normally B- point guard in this current league. The guys last year were Ds and Fs across the board. If you can’t see that, we need to get you glasses.

    32. Were you too old 5 years ago?

      I was younger then. I watched the last championship game the Knicks won live on TV as a teenager. Yeah, I’m getting up there.

      And yeah, I would pay up for a “B” point guard to replace our starting “F”. I have hope for Grant, but he still needs time to develop.

    33. I should change my handle to nattering nabob.

      Look, obviously I know Melo isn’t leaving. It was a joke. Everyone knows he’s going to kill it this year. That debridement procedure takes a year to really start working and, as a bonus, that 14th year in the league Melo is entering, statistics have shown, is the likeliest point for players to hit peak performance.

      God bless all the optimists, I love you.

    34. Haha funny because Melo will be better a year removed from knee surgery. KP will be a year better. And maybe the Knicks will have at least avg guard play. That’s not really some crazy Pollyanna shit were talking about. It’s probably 50/50

    35. it’s not really crazy to see 50 wins with conley…. we were a 34 win team by pythagorean win percentage so we should be a 40-42 team win team if all we do is replace afflalo with a competent nba sg and kp makes the projected leap next year….

      conley by himself should add a fair amount and he’s not exactly just replacing calderon’s minutes… he would be effectively a mix of calderon, grant and galloway’s minutes… conservatively that would put us around 48 wins but with good health and some more judicious breaks and most important luck… we would be between 50-54…

      in either case it’s fool-hardy to plan for porzingis prime 5 years from now when we can just press reset on a botched conley signing in 4 and melo will be off the books in 3.. that’s the window we have currently… this isn’t an amare type of contract…. we’ll still have cap room next year… it’s a no brainer if you ask me…

    36. Everyone loving Evan Fournier should ask why he could barely get off Denver’s bench for 2 years. Bazemore too. Lets not pay a guy with a 1 year track record.

      Is there a rule that I don’t know aout where you have to be a starter your rookie and second year or else you’re not going to be good? His first year he played behind Iggy and Brewer and his second year Fournier played over 1500 minutes that’s not really struggling to get off the bench. That’s a similar role as Derrick Williams was in this year with the Knicks. One could ask why was Shaw playing Randy Foye so many minutes in a hopeless year.

    37. @djphan

      You’re giving KP credit for growth but not subtracting for Melo’s continuing decline. Each year older, we should expect a larger decline from him, so even if you ignore 14/15 because he was hurt, you’re still looking at a guy who this past season was only (generously) 70% of peak Melo and is likely a year away from being a league average player, and that’s assuming his knees slowly disintegrate rather than suddenly falling apart, at which point we have the new Allan Houston (or Stoudemire!).

      Then there’s Calderon, who is an even greater decline risk, so even if you get Conley, you’re still playing him or Wroten 15+ MPG. There’s also a 50/50 shot someone offers Lance Thomas more than the MLE, so we lose him as well. An optimistic outlook is that Porzingis’s growth offsets these losses.

      To get to 50 wins, the Knicks would have to sign a second legit starter quality player.

      And to all the people saying “Melo won’t be traded!” Even if Melo isn’t or won’t be moved, why on earth would we chase that loss by making additional moves that negatively affect Porzingis’s prime?

      You call people pessimists for not wanting to chase short term success. Aren’t ya’ll calling for Conley the biggest cynics of all? Your attitude seems to be, “we’ll never win a title, so screw planning!”

    38. @26

      Sure I’d do that trade and then I’d immediately try to flip Love for the highest bidder.

      Also not sure what Fournier coming off the bench has to do with anything. His numbers the last 3 years in a large sample show that he’s an efficient scorer and an excellent 3 point shooter.

    39. Fournier would be a nice addition, but Orlando will match any offer. I hope I’m wrong on that. Sorry for being negative.
      :-)

      I wonder if some of the restricted guys will just sign their tenders and come out unrestricted next year?

    40. i don’t think it’s fair to project a steep decline for melo… he’s well within career norms in terms of production…. he isn’t derrick rose…

      You call people pessimists for not wanting to chase short term success. Aren’t ya’ll calling for Conley the biggest cynics of all? Your attitude seems to be, “we’ll never win a title, so screw planning!”

      i’m curious to know what this path to the championship entails…. and i’m wondering how a conley signing would negatively affect porzingis…..

      and it’s not about forfeiting title chances… it’s about maximizing your opportunities… the alternative is basically having a 38 win season and wallowing at the tail end of the lottery …. that is nba purgatory and that is the WORST position to be in…. and it won’t get better in 2017 unless you convince yourself that cp3 or westbrook are coming or grant magically turns into conley….

      this isn’t george hill or jeremy lin… conley moves the needle substantially….

    41. Speaking on this PG thing….the only time the Knicks looked like a competent team was when they had good PG play.

      Felton/Billups 2010
      Lin 2011
      Kidd/Felton 2012

      Say what u want about Felton but he was good in 2010 and most of 2012

      Sooooo….

    42. I think it’s kind of silly to think of individual players in terms of projected wins. There are too many variables, not just injuries, but the projected improvement/regression of the other teams in the league too.

      Conley would make the Knicks better next year. Hard to argue that. But he also played at the slowest pace in the league for much of his time in Memphis, and Hornacek plays uptempo. Can Conley adapt? Sure, probably. Memphis played slow because they had slow big guys and played defensive specialists big minutes, so Conley was probably just doing what he was told.

      But the Knicks are more than just an above average point guard away from competing for a championship. And they are more than a decent 3 pt shooting off guard away too. The East will improve, and they’ll have to really play well to duck into the playoffs no matter who they sign this offseason.

      Personally, if I ran the zoo and Conley offered his services I’d probably take him up on it. The team has precious few players of above average worth, and beggers can’t be choosers. But at the same time, I wouldn’t put any expectation on him to lead this group to the playoffs. That would continue to be a long-term, methodical work-in-progress.

    43. Melo ain’t waiving his NTC, y’all.

      You know what would really improve the Knicks outlook next season? Moving Jose Calderon to the 2013 Jason Kidd role of off guard. You don’t have to make him your starting two, but play him like he’s Kyle Korver. Jose can’t guard anyone and we know this, but he’s still a 40% 3PT shooter and he averaged 5 assists and 4 rebounds per 36 last year. I think that’s Galloway’s ceiling actually; a more athletic 2013 Jason Kidd with a better jumper and defense.

    44. But the Knicks are more than just an above average point guard away from competing for a championship.

      Logically speaking you are absolutely correct. The rub is that this is sport not math that we are talking about. As mentioned above, there is no way to calculate the variables that could happen during a season. That’s what makes the whole ” punt seasons because there is no chance crowd” so annoying. You never know.

      I can think of a couple of scenarios off top of my head.
      2011 Mavs…..yeah no one expected that. You had the 2007 loss to the Warriors and the perpetual softness of the team. But dirk went supernova and PEAK Lebron played like a dog in the finals.

      1994 Seattle Sonics. First team to lose to an 8 seed. They won 63 friggin games and lost in the first round leaving the west wide open. Similar to the 07 Mavs who won 67.

      Good thing the rest of the league wasn’t in “fuck it there’s no chance mode “and was ready to capitalize

    45. All I know is that I looked in to Conley’s chest and I saw he was a rough rider. That’s more than enough for me.

    46. But the Knicks are more than just an above average point guard away from competing for a championship.

      And some of us are comfortable with the reality that we’re not going to compete for a championship next year. But since that’s a given, I would rather improve than not improve, and replacing Calderon with Conley + Afflalo with any half decent SG + better and more stable coaching situation + KP improving gets us to the playoffs easily IMO. And we’ll *still* have cap space, all our picks and tradable contracts going into next summer. Mike Conley doesn’t fuck up some secret 5-year path to a surefire championship.

    47. 2011 Mavs…..yeah no one expected that. You had the 2007 loss to the Warriors and the perpetual softness of the team. But dirk went supernova and PEAK Lebron played like a dog in the finals.

      Dirk had an OTHERWORLDLY TS% of .537 in those finals, for a final ORTG-DRTG of 105-105. Absolute supernova.

    48. Because Hornacek played uptempo in Phoenix with a team that was suited for it doesn’t mean he’ll play uptempo with a team that isn’t. Why would you typecast him that way?

    49. DJPhan said: i’m curious to know what this path to the championship entails…. and i’m wondering how a conley signing would negatively affect porzingis…..

      It would affect Porzingis the same way you spending all your savings on a fancy car would affect your potential to buy a house.

      * You’re spending an enormous amount on a player who will likely have be well into decline and overpaid by the time Porzingis is in his.
      * You’re adding yet another player with expectations of the team to compete now.
      * You’re hurting your draft pick.
      * You’re dedicating a ton of minutes and a roster spot that could instead be used to develop a younger player. Where do you think players like Wes Matthews , Draymond Green and Paul Millsap came from? They were nobodies, and their teams chose or were forced into giving them opportunities. They were rewarded with assets that could actually be a boon to their title wishes. Unlike Conley who (because of his contract) would just make the Knicks vaguely more entertaining and competitive.

      There is hope. You don’t need to be cynical. Morey turned Rafer Alston into James Harden, essentially.

      and it’s not about forfeiting title chances… it’s about maximizing your opportunities…

      This is what I mean. It’s cynical. You’re implying that there’s nothing we can do to help build that future title team. Do you really think Mike Conley at the max is going ot help NYK compile an elite amount of talent? Do you really think there’s no other choice we could make that would have a better chance at making that future a reality?

      the alternative is basically having a 38 win season and wallowing at the tail end of the lottery …. that is nba purgatory and that is the WORST position to be in….

      ~38 wins is called NBA purgatory because it’s where bad teams get stuck when they don’t patiently rebuild and instead pursue older players. That’s exactly what the Knicks would be doing by chasing Conley.

    50. * You’re dedicating a ton of minutes and a roster spot that could instead be used to develop a younger player. Where do you think players like Wes Matthews , Draymond Green and Paul Millsap came from? They were nobodies, and their teams chose or were forced into giving them opportunities. They were rewarded with assets that could actually be a boon to their title wishes. Unlike Conley who (because of his contract) would just make the Knicks vaguely more entertaining and competitive.

      We can still develop players even if we sign Mike Conley. The Warriors signed Iguodala, drafted Harrison Barnes, had David Lee on $15m/yr and Andrew Bogut all while they drafted and ultimately reaped the benefits of Draymond Green.

      Paul Millsap didn’t become a starter until he was 4 years in to the league. He still got plenty of playing time off the bench.

      Signing Mike Conley still leaves plenty of available minutes for Jerian Grant and Langston Galloway to develop.

      If you don’t want to sign him for whatever other reasons that’s fine, but this idea that he’s going to prevent us from developing any young players isn’t really true at all.

    51. Exactly Lavor. These guys are just soo into the “development ” thing. Walk and chew gum folks

    52. 38 wins is called NBA purgatory because it’s where bad teams get stuck when they don’t patiently rebuild and instead pursue older players. That’s exactly what the Knicks would be doing by chasing Conley

      I agree with most of what you write, Max, but Conley isn’t old. He’s Steph Curry’s age. And he’s been durable his entire career, playing 2000+ mins every year until this one.

      I understand the arguments both for and against Conley. I’m usually with the conservatives in matters like this, but I think Conley is as good as your going to do this year when it comes to acquiring good basketball players. I say offer him the contract and if he takes it, great, and if he doesn’t take it, great. (Just don’t turn and offer the same package to Rondo when Conley says “no”… THAT is Knicks-induced purgatory!)

    53. Does too much math and stats make Knick fans go crazy? This team can get very good and fast if we get one or two guys.

    54. * You’re spending an enormous amount on a player who will likely have be well into decline and overpaid by the time Porzingis is in his.

      there is really no evidence of this… again… his age 28 PER of 19.4 and ws48 of .144 is a high level player and is basically imperceptible from his peak at age 26 (PER of 20 and ws48 of 1.61)…. there’s no evidence that he’s declining besides shooting a little worse (eFG .478 vs .500) but he counteracted that by creating more (+2.6%) and turning it over less(-4.1%)…

      he is going to be 29 and unfortunately in this new FA market… you’re very rarely are going to be able to get one much younger than that…. unless someone pulls a monroe and goes with a tender… but that’s rare…. you are pretty much going to be dealing with the same type of risks with any notable talent on the market…

      that leaves the draft… and guess what… we don’t have a draft pick…

      slowly building is something i can always get behind…. but that’s usually reserved for teams trying to start over and bereft of talent…. here’s the problem… we have talent… we have a 28 yo center who’s pretty good…. we have a 32 yo SF who’s pretty good…. and we got an emerging star who’s 21… if you don’t try and compete now when do you start?

    55. Word around the league is the the Bulls are actively shopping Derrick Rose (as they should be since he’s been terrible since the ACL). My question is simple though;

      Do you trade for Robin Lopez for Derrick Rose if it meant you could grab one of Whiteside or Durant? I’d do it twice a day and be convincing myself the whole time that “Hornacek works magic with point guards! He’s gonna save D Rose’s career!” I think having D Rose, Melo, and Porzingis in New York makes a big difference to free agents. If Robin Lopez and a one year flier on Derrick Rose meant I could sign Durant or Whiteside, I’m running to make that offer.

    56. there is really no evidence of this

      Pretty much everyone not named David Ortiz gets worse at sports after they turn 30. There are some exceptions here or there, but it’s not smart to bet on it. For short point guards the odds are even longer.

    57. I’m impatiently awaiting Cronin’s breakdown of our cap situation ?.

      I’m not against signing Conley, he’s a borderline all-star and getting someone better would have to wait till next year and then we’d be banking on pulling a big name where the odds are against us. I love that he’s a two way guy, we need peremiter defense as much as we need 3pt shooting. But I’m concerned about his pace, his injury, and that he’ll likely be declining by year three. And who knows what’s gonna happen with the CBA, two summers from now when our (potentially) best player is likely to be in form is his contract an albatross or is he a trade asset? I don’t think those concerns are being pessimistic.

      Say we manage to sign Conley, who’s the good SG we pick up on a smaller contract?

    58. Derrick Rose is the Guy I want to see as the point guard for the knicks. A change of scneery would be very motivating and I think liberating. Secretly I think he would love to leave Chicago. He’s the hometown kid and there’s too mich negatigity surrounding him. His knee issues are behind him. I’d take him.

    59. I’d take Derrick Rose for a year if we whiff on every other impact free agent and the Bulls make it worth our while. Saving them $21 million (or even $14 million if we swap him for Calderon, also expiring) has got to be worth at least a future first, right?

      The odds are long that Rose returns to form, but there is a 0% chance that Calderon gets any younger or better. If it doesn’t work out, one more asset and more cap space for 2017.

    60. I’d take Derrick Rose for a year if we whiff on every other impact free agent and the Bulls make it worth our while. Saving them $21 million (or even $14 million if we swap him for Calderon, also expiring) has got to be worth at least a future first, right?

      I’m down with that. I like the idea of using their cap space in creative ways to add future assets.

    61. The thing that worries me most about Conley, other than the Achilles, is also something that gives me faith about him as a Knick. He’s a late bloomer. On one hand, he is just entering his prime. But, on the other hand, we could have seen the best of him already. That’s half the reason why I would be against giving him a max deal. The other half is Grant, and to a lesser extent- Wroten. In Grant, we have a young, athletic PG with good measurables for the position who happens to excel at the PnR and is very savvy for his age. And let’s not forget he was starting to come on at the end of last season once Rambis gave him the reins. And considering the fact that Conley, though he is a legitimate top 10 PG, he isn’t that transcendent talent that can change a franchise a la CP3/Westbrook/Curry, I see nothing wrong with letting Grant grow into his role if the alternative is giving Conley the max and stunting Grant’s growth. Add in the fact that Wroten can get to the cup pretty much at will and create for himself or kick out when the defense collapses, we’re really not that bad at the 1. If Phil can add him for 15 mil/yr, then that’s a great move. Grant and Wroten are still young, and I’m not sure Conley will add enough wind to justify a max salary and stunting the growth of 2 young and talented guards when you can spend that money on quality depth and multiple good players. And think Conley is really good, I just don’t think he’s that transcendent player you’d want to pay the max into his 30’s even with the bloated cap

    62. Why would anyone trade Lopez for the PG version of Bargs? I am not trading Lopez or even Grant for Rose but if Chi wants to dump him for Calderon I’d take that risk.

    63. @62

      that’s not necessarily true… here’s the list of pgs 6′ 2″ and under who put up PER’s of at least 17 at age 28:

      1. chris paul (alltime great still kicking)
      2. john stockton (he could probably still start for us right now)

      3. mark price(had knee issues and then another tear at 31)
      4. kevin johnson (same deal)
      5. tony parker (still strong at 34)
      6. lou williams
      7. terrell brandon (flamed out at 31 but he had a history of knee issues)
      8. mike conley
      9. kyle lowry
      10. allen iverson (flamed out at 33 but was still good at 32)
      11. mookie blaylock (he actually did decline starting at 30)
      12. greg anthony (started decline at 32)
      13. jason terry (was basically an iron man his entire career and still kicking)
      14. tim hardaway (history of knee issues but wound up being great until about age 34)
      15. eric murdock (murdock and ridnour had flukish age 28 seasons but murdock didnt last long because of injuries, ridnour hung on as a backup but both probably don’t belong on this list)
      16. luke ridnour
      17. mo cheeks (peaked 28-32 and had a long career)
      18. isiah thomas(he peaked early and started a slow decline to age 32)

      the thing to glean from this is that derrick rose should get whatever trainer tim hardaway had… but for the most part if you stayed healthy through your age 28 season… you should be able to last until 32… isiah thomas and blaylock are really the only ones who sort of flamed out earlier than that but i’m sure the playoff minutes that isaih had took its toll.. he actually started his decline at age 26…. mind you that both thomas and blaylock were still pretty good players when they were on the court….

      i don’t think there’s that much risk with conley…..

    64. Conley for 15 million a year? Are you one of those guys who won’t buy a cup of coffee because it costs two dollars or more today when it used to be 50 cents?

    65. Conley for 15 million a year? Are you one of those guys who won’t buy a cup of coffee because it costs two dollars or more today when it used to be 50 cents?

      I know it ain’t gonna happen, I just can’t justify giving him max money when there is already 2 young, talented PG’s on the roster already. If we were 1 player away from a chip, then I would be able to justify maxing Conley.

    66. Do you trade for Robin Lopez for Derrick Rose if it meant you could grab one of Whiteside or Durant?

      I think you mean trade Lopez to create the cap space to get Whitesides or Durant. I don’t see why that means trading Lopez for Derrick Rose in particular. If we trade Lopez, we should get a reasonable deal for him and I don’t a think a one for one for Rose is reasonable.

      I would trade Lopez if that meant getting Durant, but not for Whitesides. Remember that despite all Whiteside’s gifts and personal stats, some stats seem to indicated his team does worse when he’s on the court than when he’s off it. I think Lopez is the opposite and is a more general purpose player who seems to make his team do better when he’s on the court. And he could be better next year. Last year was the first time a team gave a significant role in the offense and he got better at it over the season. I’d like to see what happens with him on the Knicks next year.

    67. @djphan —

      We’re talking about three more seasons probably until Kristaps is in his prime. Conley is then 31 (he turns 29 in October). Here is a list of point guards north of 30 who finished in the top 50 in win shares last season:

      Yeah, that’s an empty list. You have to go all the way down to #64 to find 33 year old Tony Parker, and Tony is a shell of the player he was at age 28. What if instead of getting players who will get worse, we get players who will get better? My point has nothing to do specifically with Mike Conley other than that he’s not an elite/top 10 type player and so can’t decline much to become overpaid. It has to do with how you improve a team, and it’s not by going to the mall and buying what you want so you have instant satisfaction (all teams want to win now rather than later, so the market for those players is always unfavorable). It’s about making investments and practicing what few teams are willing to practice: patience.

      And the truth is, the odds of building an NBA finalist in the next five years even if you make perfect decisions based on the info available are minuscule, but I’ll take minuscule over 0. After all, they were minuscule for Golden State 5 years ago too.

    68. @ 69

      I guess Chauncey Billups just missed the cut.

      Has there been any studies analyzing players peeks based on position?

    69. Chris Paul ranked #7 in win shares or did I look at the wrong list on B/R?

      Also, his WS/48 ranked 4th according to B/R

    70. Since Mo Cheeks was on that list mentioned earlier I’m reminded of his great performance in Game 5, 1990 vs the Celtics. Granted it wasn’t as great a performance as Oak and Ewing had. That playoff series was my first memory of rooting for the Knicks as a little kid. Good times.

    71. @yellowboy90

      2015/16 was Chris Paul’s 30 year old season. He just turned 31 about 5 weeks ago.

    72. If we hire Conley and he is good at first and then declines, that’s not so bad if we have young talent in the pipeline that is developing and can be a starter alongside Porzingis three years from now. We have Grant and Wroten, and it’s possible that Phil could find another young guard with potential to develop. Or maybe Phil can find some way to get Ricky Rubio :-)

    73. The hand wringing over Conley is funny. It would be a four year deal, not a 8 year deal. He’d be 33 when his contract is up. One year after Melo’s. We can get more players when they’re done and it will be easier to do that if we’ve been a decently good team. Melo plays best with a good pg. Grant isn’t going to be hampered by Conley. If anything having Conley will help grant get better as he can be a mentor and challenge him in practice. People just want to see the negativity if a big signing. Conley would be a great two way player for us and the best PG the Knicks have had since I don’t know when. He’d provide steady good play on both sides of the ball and would make everyone on the court better. We’d have cap space next year to add to our core and draft picks.

      When we added Jason Kidd who was 38 it helped us win 54 games and Melo was super awesome. Don’t you guys want that?

    74. @77

      You’re right. So was Parker and Calderon the only starting PGs north of 30 last year? I can’t think of anyone else off the top of my head.

    75. I think that’s it, yes. A lot of 30 year olds, though, oddly enough (Paul, Rondo, Hill, Lowry and Dragic).

    76. A healthy Conley is still not a max player, never was. I won’t cry if we sign him, he’ll instantly be the best PG we’e had since forever, but it’s not a move that a great GM would make in the context of where this team is at right now. I don’t buy into the “well, that’s what above average but non-all-stars will get paid these days.”

      Decent PGs are findable: Lin, Clarkson, Beverley, Tyler Johnson, guys like that. If you can get a league average PG for $2-10 mill, why pay $25 mill plus for an above average but not great PG who is possibly past his prime?

      That said, I think the point is moot, my guess is that Conley gets a better deal somewhere else or stays put.

    77. I don’t buy into the “well, that’s what above average but non-all-stars will get paid these days.”

      Okay. Watch Nic Batum also get a max deal. In a market where more than half of NBA teams will have room to offer a max contract, then yeah… that’s the going rate.

      Of the decent PGs you mentioned, Lin is obviously not coming back for political reasons, Clarkson (is he even a league-average starting PG?) would probably need to be maxed to get the Lakers not to match, Patrick Beverly is signed through 2019 (and is also no great shakes) and Tyler Johnson can’t be paid more than the MLE by any team other than Miami, who can also match any offer… so he’s not going anywhere.

      If you’re not willing to go out and pay the going rate to get top talent, get ready to sift through the bargain bin for players like Jerryd Bayless or DJ Augustin. Are they part of the Path To A Championship that everyone is concerned Mike Conley will ruin?

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